:00:39. > :00:42.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:45.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.
:00:46. > :00:49.With just a month to go until the general election,
:00:50. > :00:53.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help
:00:54. > :00:58.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,
:00:59. > :01:01.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got
:01:02. > :01:08.But is there still really all to play for?
:01:09. > :01:12.And tonight we will find out who is the next
:01:13. > :01:15.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -
:01:16. > :01:28.after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack
:01:29. > :01:32.elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next
:01:33. > :01:39.month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...
:01:40. > :01:42.And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready
:01:43. > :01:46.to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic
:01:47. > :01:49.focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,
:01:50. > :01:51.and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May
:01:52. > :01:57.It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:58. > :02:04.So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental
:02:05. > :02:07.health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,
:02:08. > :02:13.and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health
:02:14. > :02:15.treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be
:02:16. > :02:18.Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking
:02:19. > :02:26.There is a lot of new money going into it.
:02:27. > :02:29.In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion
:02:30. > :02:33.Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it
:02:34. > :02:36.No, it is new money going into the NHS
:02:37. > :02:43.It's not just of course money, it's having the people
:02:44. > :02:45.who deliver these jobs, which is why we need
:02:46. > :02:50.Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health
:02:51. > :02:53.This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,
:02:54. > :03:02.promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.
:03:03. > :03:08.Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the
:03:09. > :03:12.campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the
:03:13. > :03:17.campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin
:03:18. > :03:22.air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,
:03:23. > :03:27.and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no
:03:28. > :03:33.additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We
:03:34. > :03:37.know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap
:03:38. > :03:41.which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not
:03:42. > :03:45.disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the
:03:46. > :03:54.political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,
:03:55. > :04:00.rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce
:04:01. > :04:04.by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the
:04:05. > :04:08.number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are
:04:09. > :04:12.without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.
:04:13. > :04:22.Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage
:04:23. > :04:28.point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is
:04:29. > :04:36.that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but
:04:37. > :04:40.over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the
:04:41. > :04:46.younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is
:04:47. > :04:50.the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery
:04:51. > :04:56.plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,
:04:57. > :05:00.it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income
:05:01. > :05:05.tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average
:05:06. > :05:10.British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than
:05:11. > :05:15.two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end
:05:16. > :05:22.of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS
:05:23. > :05:27.and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance
:05:28. > :05:32.system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the
:05:33. > :05:36.former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said
:05:37. > :05:40.clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the
:05:41. > :05:47.first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.
:05:48. > :05:50.Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on
:05:51. > :05:54.average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people
:05:55. > :06:01.who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have
:06:02. > :06:06.been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are
:06:07. > :06:10.going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health
:06:11. > :06:16.care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen
:06:17. > :06:20.by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?
:06:21. > :06:24.Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax
:06:25. > :06:30.threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition
:06:31. > :06:36.increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by
:06:37. > :06:41.about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose
:06:42. > :06:45.that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask
:06:46. > :06:49.ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the
:06:50. > :06:54.average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that
:06:55. > :07:00.when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps
:07:01. > :07:05.suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two
:07:06. > :07:10.cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a
:07:11. > :07:14.very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told
:07:15. > :07:19.that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They
:07:20. > :07:23.then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent
:07:24. > :07:27.waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump
:07:28. > :07:31.the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to
:07:32. > :07:38.interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on
:07:39. > :07:42.time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance
:07:43. > :07:46.to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to
:07:47. > :07:52.double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do
:07:53. > :07:57.you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on
:07:58. > :08:01.average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country
:08:02. > :08:06.are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the
:08:07. > :08:13.moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it
:08:14. > :08:18.as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government
:08:19. > :08:22.not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the
:08:23. > :08:26.stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these
:08:27. > :08:30.critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the
:08:31. > :08:33.Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to
:08:34. > :08:35.provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining
:08:36. > :08:39.us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious
:08:40. > :08:42.to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,
:08:43. > :08:47.whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say
:08:48. > :08:49.there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a
:08:50. > :08:52.landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set
:08:53. > :08:54.of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give
:08:55. > :08:57.us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with
:08:58. > :09:01.a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock
:09:02. > :09:04.on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.
:09:05. > :09:10.Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local
:09:11. > :09:14.elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing
:09:15. > :09:17.from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,
:09:18. > :09:21.I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm
:09:22. > :09:24.going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered
:09:25. > :09:26.successes for the Tories. But with most councils
:09:27. > :09:27.only getting started, there was plenty of action
:09:28. > :09:33.still to come. It's not quite the night
:09:34. > :09:35.of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news
:09:36. > :09:37.in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold
:09:38. > :09:40.Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,
:09:41. > :09:47.four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward
:09:48. > :09:50.and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being
:09:51. > :09:55.in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself
:09:56. > :10:01.for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,
:10:02. > :10:06.as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,
:10:07. > :10:10.there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people
:10:11. > :10:13.think the election's just I think leave it
:10:14. > :10:16.like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.
:10:17. > :10:19.This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here
:10:20. > :10:23.for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed
:10:24. > :10:28.for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip
:10:29. > :10:40.winning a single seat. The joke going around
:10:41. > :10:46.Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives
:10:47. > :10:48.is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand
:10:49. > :10:52.and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably
:10:53. > :10:57.going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts
:10:58. > :11:00.backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be
:11:01. > :11:03.totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people
:11:04. > :11:06.in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,
:11:07. > :11:09.but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.
:11:10. > :11:13.Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones
:11:14. > :11:17.putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing
:11:18. > :11:20.their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats
:11:21. > :11:24.and seven councils. If the result is what these
:11:25. > :11:28.results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word
:11:29. > :11:33.for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics
:11:34. > :11:41.- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?
:11:42. > :11:45.Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.
:11:46. > :11:48.We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another
:11:49. > :11:50.five years of this. How's it been for you today?
:11:51. > :11:53.Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,
:11:54. > :11:56.I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're
:11:57. > :12:00.disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,
:12:01. > :12:02.but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be
:12:03. > :12:07.wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,
:12:08. > :12:10.not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,
:12:11. > :12:18.the control of a whole council came The section of England
:12:19. > :12:27.in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England
:12:28. > :12:31.that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,
:12:32. > :12:34.do you just have election results The answer is if that's still
:12:35. > :12:40.happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.
:12:41. > :12:42.Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much
:12:43. > :12:46.but I have one here. With the introduction
:12:47. > :12:50.of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham
:12:51. > :12:53.became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came
:12:54. > :12:56.to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second
:12:57. > :13:02.because I've got some I used to present news,
:13:03. > :13:05.as you probably know. I used to present BBC
:13:06. > :13:07.Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,
:13:08. > :13:09.ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -
:13:10. > :13:16.presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day
:13:17. > :13:23.at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government
:13:24. > :13:27.was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives
:13:28. > :13:29.with their best local So another election results
:13:30. > :13:34.day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it
:13:35. > :13:40.all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.
:13:41. > :13:52.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,
:13:53. > :13:54.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes
:13:55. > :14:06.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.
:14:07. > :14:08.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,
:14:09. > :14:10.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained
:14:11. > :14:15.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,
:14:16. > :14:21.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.
:14:22. > :14:23.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing
:14:24. > :14:25.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -
:14:26. > :14:28.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.
:14:29. > :14:32.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,
:14:33. > :14:38.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party
:14:39. > :14:40.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,
:14:41. > :14:47.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.
:14:48. > :14:50.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.
:14:51. > :14:54.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.
:14:55. > :15:07.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the
:15:08. > :15:12.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May
:15:13. > :15:15.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning
:15:16. > :15:19.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local
:15:20. > :15:23.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win
:15:24. > :15:28.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course
:15:29. > :15:31.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were
:15:32. > :15:36.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas
:15:37. > :15:43.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point
:15:44. > :15:45.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a
:15:46. > :15:47.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in
:15:48. > :15:52.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative
:15:53. > :15:58.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that
:15:59. > :16:02.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about
:16:03. > :16:06.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but
:16:07. > :16:09.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves
:16:10. > :16:14.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The
:16:15. > :16:18.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is
:16:19. > :16:22.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most
:16:23. > :16:27.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep
:16:28. > :16:31.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary
:16:32. > :16:35.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election
:16:36. > :16:39.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I
:16:40. > :16:45.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the
:16:46. > :16:50.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both
:16:51. > :16:53.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they
:16:54. > :16:58.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen
:16:59. > :17:02.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.
:17:03. > :17:06.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local
:17:07. > :17:12.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in
:17:13. > :17:17.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.
:17:18. > :17:23.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --
:17:24. > :17:26.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition
:17:27. > :17:30.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of
:17:31. > :17:34.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth
:17:35. > :17:39.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip
:17:40. > :17:42.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to
:17:43. > :17:45.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,
:17:46. > :17:51.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the
:17:52. > :17:57.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the
:17:58. > :18:01.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we
:18:02. > :18:06.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in
:18:07. > :18:11.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper
:18:12. > :18:14.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is
:18:15. > :18:18.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum
:18:19. > :18:23.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,
:18:24. > :18:30.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do
:18:31. > :18:34.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially
:18:35. > :18:37.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional
:18:38. > :18:42.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been
:18:43. > :18:46.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively
:18:47. > :18:51.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south
:18:52. > :18:54.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly
:18:55. > :18:59.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the
:19:00. > :19:03.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they
:19:04. > :19:08.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the
:19:09. > :19:18.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa
:19:19. > :19:22.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote
:19:23. > :19:30.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining
:19:31. > :19:34.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I
:19:35. > :19:39.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced
:19:40. > :19:46.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the
:19:47. > :19:50.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.
:19:51. > :19:55.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the
:19:56. > :20:00.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,
:20:01. > :20:05.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of
:20:06. > :20:14.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue
:20:15. > :20:21.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the
:20:22. > :20:25.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like
:20:26. > :20:28.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British
:20:29. > :20:31.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact
:20:32. > :20:37.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not
:20:38. > :20:40.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,
:20:41. > :20:46.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,
:20:47. > :20:50.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad
:20:51. > :20:55.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain
:20:56. > :20:59.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like
:21:00. > :21:02.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too
:21:03. > :21:07.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest
:21:08. > :21:12.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has
:21:13. > :21:18.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We
:21:19. > :21:22.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is
:21:23. > :21:26.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a
:21:27. > :21:31.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.
:21:32. > :21:34.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the
:21:35. > :21:37.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been
:21:38. > :21:42.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They
:21:43. > :21:46.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have
:21:47. > :21:50.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a
:21:51. > :21:54.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's
:21:55. > :21:58.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel
:21:59. > :22:01.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job
:22:02. > :22:06.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour
:22:07. > :22:12.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are
:22:13. > :22:16.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has
:22:17. > :22:21.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was
:22:22. > :22:25.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the
:22:26. > :22:28.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off
:22:29. > :22:34.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party
:22:35. > :22:40.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over
:22:41. > :22:43.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David
:22:44. > :22:48.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for
:22:49. > :22:52.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because
:22:53. > :22:55.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to
:22:56. > :23:02.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at
:23:03. > :23:05.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a
:23:06. > :23:08.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a
:23:09. > :23:11.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big
:23:12. > :23:13.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no
:23:14. > :23:16.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -
:23:17. > :23:19.which of course means those earning more than that could
:23:20. > :23:20.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John
:23:21. > :23:30.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone
:23:31. > :23:35.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an
:23:36. > :23:38.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.
:23:39. > :23:42.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more
:23:43. > :23:47.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be
:23:48. > :23:54.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a
:23:55. > :23:56.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.
:23:57. > :24:01.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.
:24:02. > :24:08.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be
:24:09. > :24:12.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.
:24:13. > :24:19.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would
:24:20. > :24:26.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for
:24:27. > :24:29.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners
:24:30. > :24:33.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a
:24:34. > :24:37.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell
:24:38. > :24:44.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%
:24:45. > :24:49.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying
:24:50. > :24:56.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,
:24:57. > :24:58.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's
:24:59. > :25:04.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out
:25:05. > :25:13.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set
:25:14. > :25:16.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he
:25:17. > :25:22.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis
:25:23. > :25:28.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The
:25:29. > :25:33.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was
:25:34. > :25:39.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between
:25:40. > :25:44.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.
:25:45. > :25:48.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their
:25:49. > :25:58.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way
:25:59. > :26:05.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I
:26:06. > :26:09.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is
:26:10. > :26:14.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections
:26:15. > :26:18.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to
:26:19. > :26:23.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle
:26:24. > :26:28.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You
:26:29. > :26:34.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The
:26:35. > :26:37.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an
:26:38. > :26:42.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are
:26:43. > :26:46.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the
:26:47. > :26:50.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a
:26:51. > :26:54.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are
:26:55. > :26:57.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter
:26:58. > :27:04.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took
:27:05. > :27:11.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --
:27:12. > :27:16.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of
:27:17. > :27:21.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm
:27:22. > :27:26.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after
:27:27. > :27:32.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of
:27:33. > :27:36.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all
:27:37. > :27:41.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I
:27:42. > :27:45.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused
:27:46. > :27:50.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies
:27:51. > :27:55.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum
:27:56. > :28:01.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of
:28:02. > :28:05.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and
:28:06. > :28:09.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by
:28:10. > :28:13.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives
:28:14. > :28:20.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the
:28:21. > :28:24.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to
:28:25. > :28:28.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.
:28:29. > :28:32.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy
:28:33. > :28:38.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate
:28:39. > :28:41.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview
:28:42. > :28:45.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped
:28:46. > :28:52.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the
:28:53. > :28:58.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in
:28:59. > :29:01.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into
:29:02. > :29:05.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge
:29:06. > :29:08.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to
:29:09. > :29:12.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed
:29:13. > :29:18.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?
:29:19. > :29:22.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time
:29:23. > :29:29.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy
:29:30. > :29:36.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am
:29:37. > :29:41.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat
:29:42. > :29:46.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He
:29:47. > :29:51.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour
:29:52. > :29:57.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the
:29:58. > :30:01.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my
:30:02. > :30:05.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single
:30:06. > :30:11.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest
:30:12. > :30:15.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that
:30:16. > :30:20.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even
:30:21. > :30:25.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy
:30:26. > :30:31.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum
:30:32. > :30:34.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and
:30:35. > :30:38.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under
:30:39. > :30:41.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,
:30:42. > :30:47.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,
:30:48. > :30:51.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour
:30:52. > :30:54.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on
:30:55. > :30:59.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead
:31:00. > :31:04.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won
:31:05. > :31:10.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more
:31:11. > :31:14.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of
:31:15. > :31:18.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four
:31:19. > :31:23.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see
:31:24. > :31:27.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to
:31:28. > :31:31.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my
:31:32. > :31:35.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And
:31:36. > :31:38.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She
:31:39. > :31:45.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.
:31:46. > :31:50.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary
:31:51. > :32:03.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D
:32:04. > :32:09.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do
:32:10. > :32:13.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living
:32:14. > :32:16.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the
:32:17. > :32:21.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We
:32:22. > :32:23.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you
:32:24. > :32:26.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's
:32:27. > :32:31.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party
:32:32. > :32:34.won its best ever local government performance,
:32:35. > :32:36.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote
:32:37. > :32:39.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously
:32:40. > :32:43.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for
:32:44. > :32:45.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now
:32:46. > :32:47.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,
:32:48. > :32:58.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip
:32:59. > :33:02.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the
:33:03. > :33:08.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't
:33:09. > :33:14.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go
:33:15. > :33:18.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney
:33:19. > :33:22.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from
:33:23. > :33:26.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime
:33:27. > :33:30.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one
:33:31. > :33:36.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really
:33:37. > :33:39.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a
:33:40. > :33:44.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our
:33:45. > :33:49.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the
:33:50. > :33:55.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to
:33:56. > :33:59.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing
:34:00. > :34:02.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their
:34:03. > :34:08.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime
:34:09. > :34:12.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong
:34:13. > :34:18.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back
:34:19. > :34:24.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last
:34:25. > :34:28.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to
:34:29. > :34:30.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British
:34:31. > :34:36.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the
:34:37. > :34:40.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician
:34:41. > :34:43.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for
:34:44. > :34:48.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters
:34:49. > :34:53.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in
:34:54. > :34:56.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.
:34:57. > :35:02.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that
:35:03. > :35:07.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit
:35:08. > :35:12.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the
:35:13. > :35:16.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of
:35:17. > :35:22.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.
:35:23. > :35:26.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap
:35:27. > :35:29.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health
:35:30. > :35:35.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with
:35:36. > :35:39.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of
:35:40. > :35:42.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:43. > :35:46.beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not
:35:47. > :35:52.Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that
:35:53. > :35:57.time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's
:35:58. > :36:01.fault. We have two become more professional than we have been
:36:02. > :36:06.recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or
:36:07. > :36:09.another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very
:36:10. > :36:14.rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other
:36:15. > :36:18.promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not
:36:19. > :36:22.until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not
:36:23. > :36:28.have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this
:36:29. > :36:34.current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most
:36:35. > :36:42.senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --
:36:43. > :36:46.no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I
:36:47. > :36:51.believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is
:36:52. > :37:01.shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital
:37:02. > :37:06.mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto
:37:07. > :37:13.launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but
:37:14. > :37:17.also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity
:37:18. > :37:26.bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies
:37:27. > :37:30.that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.
:37:31. > :37:34.Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory
:37:35. > :37:40.advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that
:37:41. > :37:44.Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?
:37:45. > :37:49.It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and
:37:50. > :37:55.have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.
:37:56. > :37:59.When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.
:38:00. > :38:03.Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.
:38:04. > :38:05.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:06. > :38:08.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:09. > :38:20.Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French
:38:21. > :38:23.Hello again and welcome to the programme, where we look
:38:24. > :38:25.forward to the general election and bid a fond farewell
:38:26. > :38:29.But what do the results from Thursday tell us about what's
:38:30. > :38:33.Let's take a look at the final councillor numbers.
:38:34. > :38:36.Labour still have the most, though those numbers are down.
:38:37. > :38:39.The independents are in a strong second place,
:38:40. > :38:42.followed by Plaid Cymru, who gained 33 seats, taking them
:38:43. > :38:47.The Conservatives gained most seats on Thursday,
:38:48. > :38:49.but the Liberal Democrats have fallen back.
:38:50. > :38:55.Ukip lost its two seats - they now have no councillors in Wales.
:38:56. > :39:03.Adam Price from Plaid Cymru is with me now.
:39:04. > :39:12.Thanks for coming in. Looking at last Thursday's results, overall
:39:13. > :39:19.making some gains across the country but maybe not the breakthrough
:39:20. > :39:22.someone heard of hoping for? Is the person heading of the campaign to
:39:23. > :39:29.the Westminster general election, I couldn't have asked for a better
:39:30. > :39:34.platform. Close to the best results in almost 100 years, the best result
:39:35. > :39:38.ever in Carmarthenshire and Ynys Mon, in five of the local
:39:39. > :39:43.authorities as well. The biggest party in the Rhondda, 18,000 votes
:39:44. > :39:48.for us all told, only 13,000 votes for Labour. It is an incredibly
:39:49. > :39:54.strong basis and it is no accident either. We live in a time of great
:39:55. > :39:58.change economically, politically. Traditional Labour voters are
:39:59. > :40:02.looking for a new political home and many are finding that with Plaid
:40:03. > :40:06.Cymru. Isn't the main story from last Sunday that you strength your
:40:07. > :40:12.position in your heartlands? Apart from the Rhondda, the gains have
:40:13. > :40:17.been very, very modest. Our best ever result in Powys, in
:40:18. > :40:24.Pembrokeshire. That is one seat in Powys, one seat in Wrexham. Beyond
:40:25. > :40:30.Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Win NT, Ynys Mon, not a lot to celebrate. I
:40:31. > :40:33.know we live in the era of fake news but this was closed to within four
:40:34. > :40:40.seats of the best ever result for Plaid Cymru in a local election in
:40:41. > :40:45.92 years. Why doesn't the BBC but that is a headline on its news? Were
:40:46. > :40:49.there missed opportunities? I'm thinking of somewhere like Blaenau
:40:50. > :40:53.Gwent, whether Labour vote collapsed. You did so well in the
:40:54. > :40:58.Assembly campaign last year, coming within a couple of hundred votes.
:40:59. > :41:08.Shouldn't there have been more resources there? In Blaenau Gwent
:41:09. > :41:13.there was a very strong lead over a movement for independence of the
:41:14. > :41:18.independent group has come out in favour of Nigel Coppola, the Plaid
:41:19. > :41:27.Cymru candidate, as has died Davis, who was the people's voice MP. Is
:41:28. > :41:30.that a target for your MP? The Labour Party are seeing the fight of
:41:31. > :41:37.their life in Blaenau Gwent and I think we are going to win. In
:41:38. > :41:42.Blaenau Gwent? We are in very strong contention in a whole host of seats
:41:43. > :41:46.based on the results we saw in Llanelli, in the Rhondda, clearly
:41:47. > :41:52.because of the victory, very strong victory, in terms of the seats
:41:53. > :41:56.there. In Ynys Mon, I think we are in a very strong position, and in
:41:57. > :42:01.Ceredigion. You see Plaid Cymru momentum happening throughout the
:42:02. > :42:03.country and it is no accident. People are looking for new
:42:04. > :42:07.leadership in Wales. They are not going to get it from the Labour
:42:08. > :42:12.Party have been in power for over 100 years in Wales. We are not going
:42:13. > :42:18.to get it from a Conservative Party dominated by Tory MPs in the
:42:19. > :42:21.south-east of England. Everyone is talking about Scotland and Northern
:42:22. > :42:25.Ireland but who is going to insert Wales into the political landscape?
:42:26. > :42:29.We will come to the campaign in a moment but as a prediction, you
:42:30. > :42:33.meant in Llanelli, Ceredigion, Blaenau Gwent, the Rhondda, I'm
:42:34. > :42:39.assuming you are going to say that you want to keep your current three
:42:40. > :42:48.seats. Eight seats as a target? We are in contention in North Wales. My
:42:49. > :42:54.target is to make Wales relevant again. Theresa May is talking about
:42:55. > :42:58.banging that table in Brussels for Britain. Who is going to be banging
:42:59. > :43:03.that table down in the corridors of power in Whitehall for Wales? Who is
:43:04. > :43:09.going to be actually inserting Wales into the political landscape again?
:43:10. > :43:12.There is only one answer to that. It has to be Plaid Cymru, and that's
:43:13. > :43:19.why we need to have the biggest ever tally of Plaid Cymru Party of Wales
:43:20. > :43:24.MPs putting the flag clearly for Wales, speaking up for our nation in
:43:25. > :43:28.a way that hasn't happened... Table banging aside, what will you be
:43:29. > :43:32.offering the people of Wales? I can't reach the table from here but
:43:33. > :43:39.I tell you this, we will be making the strongest case ever for this
:43:40. > :43:43.nation. We face an economic challenge, and economic opportunity,
:43:44. > :43:48.but also risks the likes of which we haven't seen for over a generation.
:43:49. > :43:52.What will your offer be? Let's look at Brexit. That will feature as a
:43:53. > :43:56.large part of the campaign. What will Plaid Cymru's position be on
:43:57. > :44:00.Brexit? We should be having the money we were promised during the
:44:01. > :44:07.Leave campaign. Everyone is saying that. Are they promising Wales the
:44:08. > :44:10.1.5 billion that we were promised in the Leave campaign? That is our
:44:11. > :44:16.proportion of the 300 million a week plus the 680 million. That is 30
:44:17. > :44:20.million a week we were promised that no other party is promising to
:44:21. > :44:25.deliver. What about the model Brexit should have about single market
:44:26. > :44:28.access? We saw from Leanne Wood last week she was saying participation.
:44:29. > :44:33.What form of participation should the UK and Wales have? We are an
:44:34. > :44:36.export intensive country. It is clearly the case that we need to
:44:37. > :44:40.protect the access we have to our main markets and that means
:44:41. > :44:47.effectively being within a single market is the best model for Wales.
:44:48. > :44:53.That is the best model for Wales because we are such a big exporter
:44:54. > :44:58.to the European Union. Accent to no control on immigration as a result?
:44:59. > :45:01.I think the Norway model does have elements of control of freedom of
:45:02. > :45:07.movement because it is freedom of movement to work and not freedom of
:45:08. > :45:10.movement as an EU citizen so in that sense it is different. But you can
:45:11. > :45:15.go to Norway without a job. You have six months to look for a job. Is
:45:16. > :45:19.that what you are saying Wales and the UK should have? What the Norway
:45:20. > :45:25.model says is you can interpret that principle and in order to... The
:45:26. > :45:28.reality is this. Wales is coming out of the European Union, the Tories
:45:29. > :45:32.are going to win the general election. What is the real question
:45:33. > :45:40.in this election is who is going to be banging that table for Wales. It
:45:41. > :45:45.has to be also about how we are going to do it and I'm asking for
:45:46. > :45:49.more details. The tax levers that we will have now we are leaving the EU,
:45:50. > :45:53.the ability to set differential that rates to help our tourism sector, to
:45:54. > :45:57.help our construction sector, we could have those powers in Wales
:45:58. > :46:03.instead of them lying dormant in England. Let's see those
:46:04. > :46:07.opportunities given to Wales. We can't regenerate our economy in
:46:08. > :46:12.Wales if we have both our arms tied behind our back. If we are coming
:46:13. > :46:15.out of the EU, which we are, then let's mitigate the risks but also
:46:16. > :46:22.grasp the opportunities that are there for us is and economy. As well
:46:23. > :46:24.as Brexiters is going to be about taxes, spending and borrowing. What
:46:25. > :46:29.is the Plaid Cymru position on taxes? We saw from Leanne Wood a
:46:30. > :46:35.couple of weeks ago, it has to be fair. I think there was a case for
:46:36. > :46:40.looking at a more progressive income tax system. We are one of the most
:46:41. > :46:43.unequal countries, as the UK, in the world, and those at the higher end
:46:44. > :46:51.of the tax bracket, absolutely, should be contributing more. The top
:46:52. > :46:59.earners up, the tax threshold should be higher? Let's look of corporation
:47:00. > :47:03.tax. Large companies are not paying their fair share and some of the tax
:47:04. > :47:08.money is being lost in terms of helping our public services. We have
:47:09. > :47:11.to have a progressive tax system and a country like Wales, which
:47:12. > :47:14.unfortunately is one of the poorer parts of the United Kingdom because
:47:15. > :47:19.we've been let down by Labour and Conservative governments, and we
:47:20. > :47:23.need to have our fair share of investment in Wales. And we need to
:47:24. > :47:26.have our fair share of the rest of the programme. Thank you very much.
:47:27. > :47:28.Let's continue with our look at the general election,
:47:29. > :47:31.and the Chair of the Welsh Conservative Party has told this
:47:32. > :47:33.programme his party will benefit from people seeing the poll
:47:34. > :47:36.So where do Thursday's results leave the Tories
:47:37. > :48:04.Hundreds of council staff counting thousands of votes in Wales's
:48:05. > :48:08.When all the figures were totted up, Labour were down over 100
:48:09. > :48:10.councillors and had lost control of local authorities such
:48:11. > :48:16.It's Friday lunchtime and they've been counting here in Caerphilly
:48:17. > :48:20.Looks like it'll all be wrapped up within the next hour
:48:21. > :48:21.and it's looking pretty encouraging for Labour.
:48:22. > :48:23.Plaid Cymru were talking up their chances here before
:48:24. > :48:26.the election but it looks as if Labour will hold
:48:27. > :48:28.on and hold on pretty and when the results came through,
:48:29. > :48:30.Labour's majority here was unchanged.
:48:31. > :48:32.That was a big disappointment for Plaid Cymru, who made progress
:48:33. > :48:35.in nearby Rhondda Cynon Taff but were still a long
:48:36. > :48:38.They fared better in the heartlands and ended up with over 200
:48:39. > :48:43.A solid basis to go into the general election, says one party figure.
:48:44. > :48:45.What's particularly pleasing, I think, is seeing the gains
:48:46. > :48:47.in places where we aren't seen as traditionally strong,
:48:48. > :48:51.in the shadows of the Port Talbot steelworks, in Aberavon,
:48:52. > :48:53.in Blaenau Gwent, in Wrexham and in Cardiff, even in places
:48:54. > :49:00.where we haven't quite reached that the winning line,
:49:01. > :49:03.when you are seeing Plaid Cymru voting numbers going up from around
:49:04. > :49:06.100 to around 1000, OK it's not a win in that ward
:49:07. > :49:11.now but goodness me, it changes the political context
:49:12. > :49:16.when we have another election, as we happen to have coming up
:49:17. > :49:21.For the Liberal Democrats, this election didn't bring
:49:22. > :49:30.In fact, they fell further back, including here in the capital,
:49:31. > :49:33.It doesn't bode well for the general election and any hope
:49:34. > :49:42.They say, as you draw further down into the figures,
:49:43. > :49:45.there is some cause for optimism, with their share of the vote
:49:46. > :49:48.in Cardiff Central, for example, but overall it wasn't a good result.
:49:49. > :49:51.The party's on the AM says there were some encouraging signs
:49:52. > :49:55.I think we have to be careful not to make a direct read
:49:56. > :49:56.across from local government elections through to
:49:57. > :50:00.undoubtedly, the general election did have an impact, I think,
:50:01. > :50:02.on some of the decisions that local voters may have made.
:50:03. > :50:08.What's absolutely clear is that politics is in a state of flux
:50:09. > :50:11.and there are arguments to be made on doorsteps in the weeks to come.
:50:12. > :50:13.There was a boost in the number of Conservative councillors
:50:14. > :50:15.in leases like Pembrokeshire and they tightened their grip
:50:16. > :50:19.They overtook Labour as the biggest party in the Vale
:50:20. > :50:24.No big council wins, though, but plenty of encouraging signs,
:50:25. > :50:28.says the man running their general election campaign in Wales.
:50:29. > :50:30.The vote for Welsh Labour has steadily gone downwards
:50:31. > :50:36.Of the Conservatives haven't been able to capitalise on that.
:50:37. > :50:39.What has happened is that the people who would want to see Labour out,
:50:40. > :50:42.if you look at the rest of the country, they've only got
:50:43. > :50:44.the option of voting for the Conservatives,
:50:45. > :50:48.In Wales, there have been a range of alternatives.
:50:49. > :50:51.In the general election, it's my expectation that people
:50:52. > :50:53.will see this as a two-party contest.
:50:54. > :50:55.The choice is between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.
:50:56. > :50:59.I see it that way and the public see it that way as well and I think
:51:00. > :51:02.that is going to be very helpful for the Conservative Party
:51:03. > :51:09.In England, the Conservatives made big gains from Labour
:51:10. > :51:12.but Jeremy Corbyn pointed to Wales to show it wasn't all that bad.
:51:13. > :51:15.But the post-election message from the party leader here,
:51:16. > :51:17.Carwyn Jones, focused on Welsh Labour, suggesting that
:51:18. > :51:28.could be the strategy for the general election, too.
:51:29. > :51:30.But still, in heartlands in Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent,
:51:31. > :51:34.voters turned from Labour to the independents and overall
:51:35. > :51:42.I think we've got a caveat that with the fact that in 2012, Labour
:51:43. > :51:52.We took a lot of seats we weren't expecting to take,
:51:53. > :51:56.so it was always going to be a bit of a performance in this election.
:51:57. > :51:59.One thing I think we can take heart from, as Labour Party members,
:52:00. > :52:02.is we've done far better than the media and the pollsters
:52:03. > :52:04.have been telling us and there is a real firm foundation
:52:05. > :52:07.to build on in the next four weeks before the general election.
:52:08. > :52:10.Ukip had a disastrous election, with no councillors in Wales
:52:11. > :52:14.Ukip should have a future because there are so many issues
:52:15. > :52:20.which will be an result in British politics, which the main
:52:21. > :52:29.Issues relating to immigration, to do with the assimilation
:52:30. > :52:42.of foreigners who come into the country, to do
:52:43. > :52:43.with the assimilation of foreign cultures,
:52:44. > :52:45.to do with political correctness in general.
:52:46. > :52:46.All of these things are crucial issues.
:52:47. > :52:49.Who the heck is going to tackle these if not for Ukip?
:52:50. > :52:54.They will be back in a month's time but party strategists will get
:52:55. > :52:56.to work straightaway to see how lessons from the local elections can
:52:57. > :53:01.Joining me now to take us through what all that might mean
:53:02. > :53:02.are the political analyst Valerie Livingston,
:53:03. > :53:04.and Leila Gouran from Cardiff Metropolitan University.
:53:05. > :53:08.Thank you both for coming in. One of the phrases we will be hearing a lot
:53:09. > :53:11.is read across, how can we look at Thursday's elections and look
:53:12. > :53:13.forward to June eight? What do you think it tells us for Wales
:53:14. > :53:15.specifically? Any read across from a local election to a general election
:53:16. > :53:19.has to, the health warning. Local elections are fought on different
:53:20. > :53:22.issues, ranging from the very, very local right up to the UK level did
:53:23. > :53:29.other was a healthy dose of personality politics, which may show
:53:30. > :53:33.why we saw so many independents win on Thursday night that the direction
:53:34. > :53:38.of travel is there. It seems Labour on the back foot, the Tories are
:53:39. > :53:42.doing well, Plaid Cymru's vote is holding up. Were you surprised at
:53:43. > :53:48.how Labour managed to avoid that nightmare doomsday scenario so many
:53:49. > :53:53.people were predicting? Actually, OK, they lost a lot but not as bad
:53:54. > :53:56.as it could have been? That's right, yes it up I was surprised but also
:53:57. > :54:03.not surprised because it might be down to the Carwyn Jones affect. He
:54:04. > :54:08.has been in power since 2009. He has led the Welsh Assembly, Welsh Labour
:54:09. > :54:13.have led the Welsh Assembly for so long now that I think you might have
:54:14. > :54:19.helped mitigate the negative effects that we see at the national level.
:54:20. > :54:28.What could we expect from the general campaign? For it to be
:54:29. > :54:33.Carwyn Jones, Welsh Welsh Welsh? We were saying it is a bit of a win-win
:54:34. > :54:35.situation for Carwyn Jones at the moment because he has held up as
:54:36. > :54:40.good as could have been expected in the local elections but at general
:54:41. > :54:43.elections it is down to Jeremy Corbyn now. People are going to be
:54:44. > :54:50.voting for who they want sat around the negotiating table. Win over the
:54:51. > :54:55.devolved nations where being involved in the negotiations. We
:54:56. > :54:59.heard from Aron Price just now who is going to bang the table for Wales
:55:00. > :55:02.and he said Plaid Cymru but the danger for smaller parties like
:55:03. > :55:07.Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, maybe, is that it is going to be Theresa
:55:08. > :55:12.May versus Jeremy Corbyn and that's almost inevitable from a UK media
:55:13. > :55:16.point of view. This really is turning into a presidential style
:55:17. > :55:20.election and that's what the Conservatives want they recognise
:55:21. > :55:24.that Theresa May is their trump card if you'll excuse the pun. She is
:55:25. > :55:28.their presidential candidate and she polls much more strongly than Jeremy
:55:29. > :55:34.Corbyn. That does make a tricky for Tim Farron and Leanne Wood to get a
:55:35. > :55:36.lead in to this election. I guess for them it is about bringing
:55:37. > :55:41.forward innovative policies of very effective targeting locally. But
:55:42. > :55:45.then it surprises me that she won't go for a TV debate. If it is
:55:46. > :55:50.head-to-head and she's so far ahead in the polls compared to Corbyn, why
:55:51. > :55:54.not go on the TV? If you are advising her, would you tell to go
:55:55. > :55:59.for it or just play it and not to bother. For the sake of democracy
:56:00. > :56:03.and the election campaign I would recommend she participates but she
:56:04. > :56:10.has everything to lose. Should she make a gaffe in an election
:56:11. > :56:13.campaign, which is likely, for someone who likes to control as much
:56:14. > :56:19.as Theresa May does, that is not ideal for her. Equally, because it
:56:20. > :56:27.might give Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron more airtime. We can expect
:56:28. > :56:30.this to be dominated by Brexit, more than likely. As somebody who has
:56:31. > :56:33.spent so much time analysing the European context of things, what do
:56:34. > :56:38.you make of the nature of the debate you have seen so far? I think in
:56:39. > :56:42.terms of Brexit it is quite open a stick at the moment. There doesn't
:56:43. > :56:44.seem to be any real depth to the slogans we are hearing. We hear
:56:45. > :56:49.strong and stable from the Conservatives. Very catchy but
:56:50. > :56:53.without any real depth. We wait to see what happens with these
:56:54. > :56:59.manifestos, what will be coming out of next week or so, to see what's in
:57:00. > :57:02.there, but very slow the moment. The Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru put
:57:03. > :57:05.together a white paper where they set out what they wanted for Wales
:57:06. > :57:10.during Brexit but it hasn't really been adopted by the UK Labour
:57:11. > :57:13.government so there is still uncertainty there. We have to wait
:57:14. > :57:18.and see what is in the manifestos. Do you think people will, when the
:57:19. > :57:22.manifestos come out and we see more detail about what the different
:57:23. > :57:25.parties won from Brexit, will they've bothered to listen to it or
:57:26. > :57:30.will they just hear the slogans and follow that? It seems at the moment
:57:31. > :57:34.but the slogans have it. With the TB debate error or TV debates, that
:57:35. > :57:38.might be a way to get those messages out of voters but with Theresa May
:57:39. > :57:42.not participating, maybe it will have a difference on how the votes
:57:43. > :57:46.go, especially if we have some strong messages from Labour and
:57:47. > :57:52.Plaid Cymru. We saw a couple of weeks ago, and we are suspecting
:57:53. > :57:56.some more, some Wales specific polls. That last poll suggested the
:57:57. > :57:59.Tories were ten points ahead of Labour and they could be winning
:58:00. > :58:04.over 20 seats. Do you think that could turn out to be the case? I
:58:05. > :58:08.think that poll was a mixed blessing for the Conservatives, coming when
:58:09. > :58:12.it did. It set expectations absolutely sky-high for the local
:58:13. > :58:16.elections. There was going to be another poll out tomorrow so we will
:58:17. > :58:20.find out then if the last poll was an outlier or if it is a trend and
:58:21. > :58:27.might be borne out in seats on June eight. You say the Tories are being
:58:28. > :58:30.very optimistic. We just had Aron Price talking a Plaid Cymru's
:58:31. > :58:36.chances in places like Blaenau Gwent. Is he being really
:58:37. > :58:40.optimistic? I think there will be real questions to answer for Plaid
:58:41. > :58:43.Cymru if they don't win Ynys Mon but there are a few other wild cards and
:58:44. > :58:48.plate on top Blaenau Gwent, possibly even the Rhondda. They can't make
:58:49. > :58:53.advances at this election, when will they? At the same time, I guess one
:58:54. > :58:59.of the things they saw on Thursday was the Lib Dems and Ukip having a
:59:00. > :59:03.fairly tough time. Do you think that's something we will see for the
:59:04. > :59:09.general election? I think you could have served their purpose touted
:59:10. > :59:12.they are one issue party. We've voted to leave the EU and there is
:59:13. > :59:19.no clear policy from Ukip on how we take that forward. But we saw Neil
:59:20. > :59:24.Hamilton earlier on on the UK programme saying that maybe what
:59:25. > :59:31.they should be pushing themselves is a low tax, cutting foreign aid, a
:59:32. > :59:36.real further right of centre party. Do you think there is appetite for a
:59:37. > :59:40.party like that? Probably not in Wales where the Tories only picked
:59:41. > :59:42.up eight seats in the local elections. I think anything further
:59:43. > :59:48.right then that wouldn't hold much water in Wales. What do you think? I
:59:49. > :59:53.think it is absolutely right to say you could wear a single issue party
:59:54. > :59:57.and they have served their purpose. I fancy a space for a further right
:59:58. > :00:00.party. If you look at the National Assembly for Wales, even the
:00:01. > :00:05.Conservative Party there is largely to the left of the Conservatives.
:00:06. > :00:11.What about the Lib Dems? They had a very difficult night last year, a
:00:12. > :00:14.very difficult election in 2015. Where does it enter the Lib Dems? I
:00:15. > :00:18.think the real difficulty for them now is that they have lost their
:00:19. > :00:21.infrastructure, their party organisation, so they might start to
:00:22. > :00:27.rebuild from this point but I think it could take a generation for them
:00:28. > :00:30.to get back in the they were in. You mean foot soldiers? Door knockers?
:00:31. > :00:33.The people who organise the leaflets, which is a remarkably
:00:34. > :00:36.time-consuming job. Have they reached a point where they just
:00:37. > :00:40.won't come back or it will take longer? I don't only have reached
:00:41. > :00:43.that point because I think there is still a Liberal Democrat presence in
:00:44. > :00:48.pockets across the UK but whether or not they can come back to be that UK
:00:49. > :00:53.wide party again, with seats in all administrations, remains to be seen.
:00:54. > :00:57.Thank you very much. We will be looking at it for the next few
:00:58. > :00:58.weeks. That's it for another week. I hope you enjoy me next Sunday for
:00:59. > :01:01.more news and analysis. Don't forget we're
:01:02. > :01:16.@walespolitics on Twitter. housing associations and investment,
:01:17. > :01:27.but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.
:01:28. > :01:33.Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the
:01:34. > :01:37.party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin
:01:38. > :01:43.with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for
:01:44. > :01:48.four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this
:01:49. > :01:52.election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she
:01:53. > :01:58.thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,
:01:59. > :02:02.she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with
:02:03. > :02:06.accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks
:02:07. > :02:08.when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the
:02:09. > :02:15.manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in
:02:16. > :02:19.the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.
:02:20. > :02:24.She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big
:02:25. > :02:34.she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of
:02:35. > :02:40.strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,
:02:41. > :02:43.they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that
:02:44. > :02:47.the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with
:02:48. > :02:52.it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody
:02:53. > :02:56.over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few
:02:57. > :03:00.things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,
:03:01. > :03:03.they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to
:03:04. > :03:07.the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a
:03:08. > :03:13.question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later
:03:14. > :03:19.on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her
:03:20. > :03:23.interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short
:03:24. > :03:27.manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,
:03:28. > :03:31.aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think
:03:32. > :03:36.Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local
:03:37. > :03:40.candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much
:03:41. > :03:46.framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not
:03:47. > :03:51.a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and
:03:52. > :03:55.the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the
:03:56. > :03:59.population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle
:04:00. > :04:03.England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be
:04:04. > :04:07.her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big
:04:08. > :04:11.slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the
:04:12. > :04:16.public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is
:04:17. > :04:20.happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell
:04:21. > :04:23.to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The
:04:24. > :04:27.Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he
:04:28. > :04:32.denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before
:04:33. > :04:40.saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a
:04:41. > :04:44.Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe
:04:45. > :04:49.that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended
:04:50. > :04:53.not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe
:04:54. > :05:01.that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand
:05:02. > :05:06.systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the
:05:07. > :05:11.economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a
:05:12. > :05:16.generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,
:05:17. > :05:20.yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution
:05:21. > :05:25.my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,
:05:26. > :05:31.I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have
:05:32. > :05:35.untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been
:05:36. > :05:39.exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about
:05:40. > :05:44.to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,
:05:45. > :05:49.when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he
:05:50. > :05:54.would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is
:05:55. > :05:57.clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described
:05:58. > :06:03.it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.
:06:04. > :06:09.There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.
:06:10. > :06:12.Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in
:06:13. > :06:17.constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the
:06:18. > :06:23.former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they
:06:24. > :06:27.could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with
:06:28. > :06:30.their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that
:06:31. > :06:34.there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous
:06:35. > :06:38.battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,
:06:39. > :06:43.where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because
:06:44. > :06:49.of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway
:06:50. > :06:55.that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election
:06:56. > :07:00.results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear
:07:01. > :07:05.that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John
:07:06. > :07:09.McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it
:07:10. > :07:14.would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is
:07:15. > :07:18.not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but
:07:19. > :07:23.maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with
:07:24. > :07:28.30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it
:07:29. > :07:32.reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they
:07:33. > :07:36.said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million
:07:37. > :07:45.votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that
:07:46. > :07:50.manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of
:07:51. > :07:55.holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform
:07:56. > :07:58.on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and
:07:59. > :08:02.desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say
:08:03. > :08:07.that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as
:08:08. > :08:10.an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top
:08:11. > :08:15.party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and
:08:16. > :08:18.decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential
:08:19. > :08:21.candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching
:08:22. > :08:27.straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the
:08:28. > :08:34.Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.
:08:35. > :08:41.Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a
:08:42. > :08:47.dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89
:08:48. > :08:52.MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not
:08:53. > :08:57.know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative
:08:58. > :09:05.vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.
:09:06. > :09:07.Four weeks to go, but not for France...
:09:08. > :09:10.France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get
:09:11. > :09:13.a first estimate of who will be the country's next President
:09:14. > :09:17.Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.
:09:18. > :09:19.The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal
:09:20. > :09:21.reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist
:09:22. > :09:23.Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.
:09:24. > :09:26.The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential
:09:27. > :09:28.hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.
:09:29. > :09:30.The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,
:09:31. > :09:36.and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before
:09:37. > :09:38.campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said
:09:39. > :09:44.it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,
:09:45. > :09:46.with a trove of documents released online.
:09:47. > :09:49.The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,
:09:50. > :09:51.and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading
:09:52. > :10:02.details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.
:10:03. > :10:04.I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist
:10:05. > :10:17.As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus
:10:18. > :10:22.that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any
:10:23. > :10:27.reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there
:10:28. > :10:32.have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have
:10:33. > :10:36.decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was
:10:37. > :10:42.agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as
:10:43. > :10:46.president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le
:10:47. > :10:52.Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something
:10:53. > :10:57.huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,
:10:58. > :11:03.he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,
:11:04. > :11:08.then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a
:11:09. > :11:14.fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his
:11:15. > :11:18.reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his
:11:19. > :11:23.programme through? I think that right now, with how things are
:11:24. > :11:27.looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the
:11:28. > :11:34.Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want
:11:35. > :11:39.to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at
:11:40. > :11:43.the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on
:11:44. > :11:47.how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very
:11:48. > :11:59.well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an
:12:00. > :12:07.adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of
:12:08. > :12:12.France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three
:12:13. > :12:18.years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She
:12:19. > :12:24.would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le
:12:25. > :12:30.Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and
:12:31. > :12:37.ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of
:12:38. > :12:44.that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?
:12:45. > :12:51.Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le
:12:52. > :12:55.Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that
:12:56. > :13:03.2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just
:13:04. > :13:05.five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the
:13:06. > :13:10.election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here
:13:11. > :13:14.on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair
:13:15. > :13:16.indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on
:13:17. > :13:20.BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every
:13:21. > :13:23.turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One
:13:24. > :13:27.at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:28. > :13:31.it's the Sunday Politics.