:00:39. > :00:42.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:46.Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes
:00:47. > :00:48.in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -
:00:49. > :00:55.Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax
:00:56. > :00:57.to fund public services, but will traders just
:00:58. > :01:01.Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,
:01:02. > :01:04.insists he can win this election - so which way will
:01:05. > :01:12.Neil Hamilton joins us for the latest of our interviews.
:01:13. > :01:15.And one-legged Labour-supporting seagulls.
:01:16. > :01:19.We look at the Green electoral offer and here, what the parties are
:01:20. > :01:27.saying about tackling the air pollution problem in London.
:01:28. > :01:31.And with me, our own scientifically selected focus group
:01:32. > :01:33.of political pundits - they're not so much
:01:34. > :01:35.undecided as clueless - Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:36. > :01:42.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:43. > :01:44.So, we've got two new policies this morning.
:01:45. > :01:46.Labour say they will introduce a financial transaction tax
:01:47. > :01:49.if they win the general election and what they're calling
:01:50. > :01:51."the biggest crackdown on tax avoidance in the country's history".
:01:52. > :01:54.The Conservatives say they'll work with local authorities in England
:01:55. > :01:56.to build council houses with the right to buy.
:01:57. > :01:58.Theresa May says the policy "will help thousands of people
:01:59. > :02:05.get on the first rung of the housing ladder".
:02:06. > :02:13.Steve, what do you make of them? I have been conditioned after doing
:02:14. > :02:17.tax and spend debates in pre-election periods for many
:02:18. > :02:22.decades to treat policy is not as literal but as arguments. In other
:02:23. > :02:27.words if you look back to 2015 the Tory plan to wipe out the deficit
:02:28. > :02:30.was never going to happen and yet it framed and large event. In that
:02:31. > :02:35.sense the Robin Hood tax is a sensible move for Labour to make at
:02:36. > :02:39.this point because it is part of a narrative of reconfiguring taxation
:02:40. > :02:46.to be fair. Treating it as an argument rather than something that
:02:47. > :02:49.would happen in day one of Labour government is sensible. In terms of
:02:50. > :02:52.building houses Theresa May said right from the beginning when she
:02:53. > :02:55.was in Number Ten that there is a housing deficit in this country
:02:56. > :03:00.rather than the economic deficit George Osborne was focusing on, and
:03:01. > :03:04.this is an example of trying to get house-building going. It seems
:03:05. > :03:08.entirely sensible, not sure how it works with right to buy but again as
:03:09. > :03:17.framing of a 90 minute it makes sense. I disagree with Steve on one
:03:18. > :03:22.front which is how sensible Theresa May's policy is on the housing
:03:23. > :03:25.announcement. I think more broadly these two announcements have
:03:26. > :03:31.something in common which is that over the next 24 hours both will
:03:32. > :03:35.probably unravel in different ways. Ye of little faith! The Mayor of
:03:36. > :03:39.London has already said he doesn't agree with this, and when people see
:03:40. > :03:45.the actual impact of what looks like a populist tax will very potentially
:03:46. > :03:50.affect people's pensions, it might become a lot less popular. On the
:03:51. > :03:55.Tory housing plans, I think it is difficult to imagine how they are
:03:56. > :04:00.going to implement this huge, what looks like a huge land and property
:04:01. > :04:05.grab. Through compulsory purchase orders, which are not a simple
:04:06. > :04:08.instrument. They say they will change the law but really the idea
:04:09. > :04:13.of paying people below the market value for their assets is not
:04:14. > :04:20.something I can see sitting easily with Tory backbenchers or the Tories
:04:21. > :04:24.in the House of Lords. Tom. Both would appear superficially to be
:04:25. > :04:31.appealing to traditional left and traditional right bases. What is
:04:32. > :04:37.more Tory than right to buy, then councils sell on these houses, and
:04:38. > :04:42.Labour slapping a massive tax on the city. The Tories' plan, I would say
:04:43. > :04:46.look a bit deeper and all of the Tory narrative from the last six
:04:47. > :04:51.years which hasn't worked well is talking about the private sector
:04:52. > :04:57.increasing supply in the market. Now Mrs May is talking about the role
:04:58. > :05:02.for the state after all so this is the shift creeping in. On the Labour
:05:03. > :05:09.transaction tax, one of the most interesting things I heard in days
:05:10. > :05:12.was from Paul Mason, former BBC correspondent, now a cog in Easter
:05:13. > :05:17.extreme. On Newsnight he said don't worry about whether the Labour
:05:18. > :05:21.manifesto will add up, I'm promising it will, the bigger Tory attack line
:05:22. > :05:30.should be what on earth will be the macroeconomic effect of taking so
:05:31. > :05:32.much tax out of the system. Very well, we shall see. At least we have
:05:33. > :05:34.some policies to talk about. Now, on Tuesday Labour
:05:35. > :05:36.will launch its manifesto. But we've already got a pretty good
:05:37. > :05:39.idea of what's in it - that's because most of its contents
:05:40. > :05:42.were leaked to the media Labour has a variety of spending
:05:43. > :05:50.pledges including an extra ?6 billion a year for the NHS,
:05:51. > :05:53.an additional ?8 billion for social care over the lifetime
:05:54. > :05:55.of the next parliament, as well as a ?250 billion
:05:56. > :05:57.in infrastructure over The party will support the renewal
:05:58. > :06:05.of the Trident submarine system, although any Prime Minister should
:06:06. > :06:06.be extremely cautious about its use, and the party
:06:07. > :06:09.will hold a strategic defence and security review immediately
:06:10. > :06:12.after the election. In terms of immigration,
:06:13. > :06:14.Labour will seek "reasonable management of migration",
:06:15. > :06:17.but it will not make "false Elsewhere, university tuition
:06:18. > :06:23.fees will be abolished, and the public sector pay cap,
:06:24. > :06:25.which limits pay rises for public sector workers
:06:26. > :06:29.to 1%, will be scrapped. The party also aims to renationalise
:06:30. > :06:32.the railways, the Royal Mail and the National Grid,
:06:33. > :06:39.as well as creating at least one A senior Labour backbencher
:06:40. > :06:44.described it to the Sunday Politics as a manifesto for a leadership
:06:45. > :06:47.who don't "give a toss about the wider public",
:06:48. > :06:49.and several other Labour candidates told us they thought it
:06:50. > :06:51.had been deliberately leaked by the leadership,
:06:52. > :06:55.with one suggesting the leak was intended to "bounce
:06:56. > :06:57.the National Executive" And we're joined now from Salford
:06:58. > :07:06.by the Shadow Business Secretary, Welcome to the programme. The draft
:07:07. > :07:12.manifesto proposed to renationalise the number of industry. You will
:07:13. > :07:15.wait for the franchises to run out rather than buy them out at the
:07:16. > :07:21.moment so can you confirm the railways will not be wholly
:07:22. > :07:27.nationalised until 2030, after three Labour governments, and Jeremy
:07:28. > :07:30.Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to comment on leaks, you will just have
:07:31. > :07:37.to be patient and wait to see what is in our manifesto. But you have
:07:38. > :07:41.already announced you will nationalise the railways, so tell me
:07:42. > :07:45.about it. We have discussed taking the franchises into public ownership
:07:46. > :07:50.as they expire, however the detail will be set out in the manifesto so
:07:51. > :07:55.I'm not prepared to go into detail until that policy is formally laid
:07:56. > :08:01.out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound very hopeful but let's carry on. You
:08:02. > :08:06.will also nationalise the National Grid, it has a market capitalisation
:08:07. > :08:11.of ?40 billion, why do you want to nationalise that? Again, I'm not
:08:12. > :08:15.going to speculate on leaks, you will just have to be patient. But
:08:16. > :08:22.you said you will nationalise the National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks
:08:23. > :08:26.have suggested but you will just have to wait and see what the final
:08:27. > :08:31.manifesto states on that one. So is it a waste of time me asking you how
:08:32. > :08:36.you will pay for something that costs 40 billion? Be patient, just
:08:37. > :08:41.couple of days to go, but what I would say is there is growing
:08:42. > :08:45.pressure from the public to reform the utilities sector. The
:08:46. > :08:50.Competition and Markets Authority stated in 2015 that bill payers were
:08:51. > :08:53.paying over till debt -- ?2 billion in excess of what they should be
:08:54. > :09:00.paying so there is a clear need for reform. The bills we get are from
:09:01. > :09:03.the energy companies, you are not going to nationalise them, you are
:09:04. > :09:08.going to nationalise the distribution company and I wondered
:09:09. > :09:13.what is the case for nationalising the distribution company? As I said,
:09:14. > :09:17.our full plans will be set out on Tuesday. In relation to the big six
:09:18. > :09:24.energy companies, we know in recent years they have been overcharging
:09:25. > :09:29.customers... There's no point in answering questions I am not asking.
:09:30. > :09:34.I am asking what is the case for nationalising the National Grid?
:09:35. > :09:37.There is a case for reforming the energy sector as a whole and that
:09:38. > :09:42.looks at the activities of the big six companies and it will look at
:09:43. > :09:48.other aspects too. You will have to be patient and wait until Tuesday.
:09:49. > :09:54.What about the Royal Mail? Again, you will have to wait until Tuesday.
:09:55. > :09:58.Why can't you just be honest with the British voter? We know you are
:09:59. > :10:07.going to do this and you have a duty to explain. I'm not even arguing
:10:08. > :10:11.whether it is right or wrong. The Royal Mail was sold off and we know
:10:12. > :10:16.it was sold under value and British taxpayers have a reason to feel
:10:17. > :10:19.aggrieved about that. There is a long-term strategy that would ensure
:10:20. > :10:23.the Royal Mail was classified as a key piece of infrastructure but the
:10:24. > :10:28.details of that will be set out in our manifesto because we want to
:10:29. > :10:30.ensure businesses and households ensure the best quality of service
:10:31. > :10:37.when it comes to their postal providers. You plan to borrow an
:10:38. > :10:42.extra 25 billion per year, John McDonnell has already announced
:10:43. > :10:45.this, on public investment, on top of the around 50 billion already
:10:46. > :10:50.being planned for investment. You will borrow it all so that means, if
:10:51. > :11:00.you can confirm, that many years after the crash by 2021, Labour
:11:01. > :11:06.government would still be borrowing 75 billion a year. Is that correct?
:11:07. > :11:12.We have set out ?250 billion of capital investment, and ?250 billion
:11:13. > :11:15.for a national investment bank. Our financial and fiscal rules dictate
:11:16. > :11:19.we will leave the Government in a state of less debt than we found it
:11:20. > :11:25.at the start of the parliament so we won't increase the national debt at
:11:26. > :11:30.the end of our Parliamentary term. How can you do that if by 2021 you
:11:31. > :11:35.will still be borrowing around 75 billion a year, which is more than
:11:36. > :11:40.we borrow at the moment? The 500 billion figure is set out over a
:11:41. > :11:43.period of ten years, it's a figure that has been suggested by Peter
:11:44. > :11:48.Helm from Oxford University as a figure that is necessary to bring us
:11:49. > :11:54.in line with other industrial competitors. Similar figures have
:11:55. > :12:00.been suggested by groups such as the CBI. By the way I have not included
:12:01. > :12:05.all 500 billion, just the 250 billion on public spending, not the
:12:06. > :12:09.extra money. You talk about the fiscal rules. The draft manifesto
:12:10. > :12:13.said you will leave debt as a proportion of trend GDP law at the
:12:14. > :12:20.end of each parliament, you have just said a version of that. What is
:12:21. > :12:24.trend GDP? In clear terms we will ensure the debt we acquire will be
:12:25. > :12:28.reduced by the end of the parliament. We won't leave the
:12:29. > :12:36.Government finances in a worse state than we found them. OK, but what is
:12:37. > :12:40.trend GDP? Our rule is we will ensure public sector net debt is
:12:41. > :12:45.less than we found it when we came to power in Government on June the
:12:46. > :12:52.8th. But that is not what your draft manifesto says. I'm not going to
:12:53. > :12:55.comment on leaks, you are just going to have to wait until Tuesday to
:12:56. > :13:01.look at the fine detail and perhaps we will have another chat then. You
:13:02. > :13:04.have published your plans for corporation tax and you will
:13:05. > :13:09.increase it by a third and your predictions assumed that will get an
:13:10. > :13:14.extra 20 billion a year by the end of the parliament. But that assumes
:13:15. > :13:19.the companies don't change their behaviour, that they move money
:13:20. > :13:24.around, they leave the country or they generate smaller profits. Is
:13:25. > :13:28.that realistic? You are right to make that point and you will see
:13:29. > :13:31.when we set out our policies and costings in the manifesto that we
:13:32. > :13:36.haven't spent all of the tax take. We have allowed for different
:13:37. > :13:40.differentials and potential changes in market activity because that
:13:41. > :13:47.would be approved and direction to take. But corporation tax is allowed
:13:48. > :13:53.to be cut in France and the United States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin.
:13:54. > :13:56.Many companies based in Britain are already wondering whether they
:13:57. > :14:00.should relocate because of Brexit, if you increase this tax by a third
:14:01. > :14:06.couldn't that clinch it for a number of them? No, we will still be one of
:14:07. > :14:10.the lowest corporation tax rate in the G7. Let's look at what's
:14:11. > :14:14.important for business. Cutting corporation tax in itself doesn't
:14:15. > :14:19.improve productivity, or business investment and there's no suggestion
:14:20. > :14:25.cutting corporation tax in recent years has achieved that. Businesses
:14:26. > :14:28.need an investment in tools in things they need to thrive and
:14:29. > :14:33.prosper, they also need to reduce the burden at the lower end of the
:14:34. > :14:37.tax scale, before we get to the Prophet stage. One key example is
:14:38. > :14:45.business rates. We have made the proposal to government to in --
:14:46. > :14:46.exclude machinery so businesses can invest and grow operations in the
:14:47. > :15:01.future but the Government refused. Corporation tax has been cut since
:15:02. > :15:08.2010. When it was 28% it brought in ?43 billion a year. Now it is down
:15:09. > :15:14.to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a year. By cutting it in the last
:15:15. > :15:19.year, it brought in 21% more, so what is the problem? It might have
:15:20. > :15:23.brought in more money, but has it increased business investment in the
:15:24. > :15:29.long term. It is not just about cutting corporation tax, but it is
:15:30. > :15:34.on the ability of businesses to thrive and prosper. Business
:15:35. > :15:40.investment in the UK is below are industrial competitors. Wages are
:15:41. > :15:45.stagnating which doesn't indicate businesses are not doing well. Let
:15:46. > :15:51.me get it right, you are arguing if we increase business tax by a third,
:15:52. > :15:59.that will increase investment? I am not saying that. You just did. Know
:16:00. > :16:04.I didn't, I said reducing business tax isn't enough, you have to invest
:16:05. > :16:09.in the things businesses need to thrive and prosper. You have also
:16:10. > :16:19.got to lessen the burden on business. You have announced a
:16:20. > :16:25.financial transaction tax. Your own labour Mayor of London said he has
:16:26. > :16:29.vowed to fight it. He said I do not want a unilateral tax on business in
:16:30. > :16:34.our city, so why are you proceeding with it? This isn't a new
:16:35. > :16:39.initiative, there is a growing global pressure to make sure we have
:16:40. > :16:42.fairness in the financial sector. Ordinary British people are paying
:16:43. > :16:49.for our banking crisis they didn't cause. Another important point,
:16:50. > :16:53.stamp duty reserve tax was brought in in the 1600 and there have been
:16:54. > :16:56.little reforms. The sector has changed and we have do provide
:16:57. > :17:03.changes to the system for that change. High-frequency trading where
:17:04. > :17:07.we have a state of affairs where a lot of shares are traded on
:17:08. > :17:12.computers within milliseconds. We need a tax system that keeps up with
:17:13. > :17:18.that. What happens if they move the computers to another country? Emily
:17:19. > :17:22.Thornaby said this morning, other countries had already introduced a
:17:23. > :17:29.financial transaction tax, what other countries have done that?
:17:30. > :17:37.There are ten countries looking at introducing a transaction tax. Which
:17:38. > :17:42.ones have done it so far? They will be later announcing a final package,
:17:43. > :17:46.going through the finer detail at the moment. But the European
:17:47. > :17:51.Commission tried to get this done in 2011 and it still hasn't happened in
:17:52. > :17:54.any of these countries. But you are going to go ahead unilaterally and
:17:55. > :18:00.risk these businesses, which generate a lot of money, moving to
:18:01. > :18:06.other jurisdictions. There is not a significant risk of that happening.
:18:07. > :18:16.The stamp duty reserve tax is levied at either where the person or
:18:17. > :18:20.company is domiciled or where the instrument is issued rather than
:18:21. > :18:25.worth the transaction takes place. This tax in itself is not enough to
:18:26. > :18:28.make people leave this country in terms of financial services because
:18:29. > :18:32.there is more to keep these businesses here in terms of the
:18:33. > :18:37.investment we are making, the economy that Labour will build, in
:18:38. > :18:39.terms of productivity improvement we will see. Thank you very much,
:18:40. > :18:44.Rebecca Long-Bailey. And listening to that was the Home
:18:45. > :18:54.Office Minister, Brandon Lewis. Over the years, you have got
:18:55. > :18:58.corporation tax by 20%, it is lower than international standards, so why
:18:59. > :19:04.are so many global companies who make money out of Great Britain,
:19:05. > :19:09.still not paying 20%? It is one of the problems with the point Labour
:19:10. > :19:13.were making and Rebecca could not answer, these companies can move
:19:14. > :19:18.around the world. One of the important things is having a low tax
:19:19. > :19:23.economy but these businesses, it encourages them to come at a rate
:19:24. > :19:29.they are prepared to pay. People may say they are right, if they were
:19:30. > :19:36.paying 19, 20% incorporation tax. But they are not. Google runs a
:19:37. > :19:42.multi-million pound corporation and did not pay anywhere near 20%. There
:19:43. > :19:46.are companies that are trading internationally and that is why we
:19:47. > :19:54.have to get this work done with our partners around the world. Has there
:19:55. > :19:58.been an improvement? It is more than they were paying before. Whether it
:19:59. > :20:03.is Google or any other company, alongside them being here, apart
:20:04. > :20:09.from the tax they pay, it is the people they employ. The deal was, if
:20:10. > :20:12.you cut the business tax, the corporation tax on profits, we would
:20:13. > :20:18.get more companies coming here and more companies paying their tax. It
:20:19. > :20:21.seems it doesn't matter how low, a number of companies just pay a
:20:22. > :20:27.derisory amount and you haven't been able to change that. As you
:20:28. > :20:34.outlined, the income taken from the changing corporation tax has gone
:20:35. > :20:38.up. That is from established British companies, not from these
:20:39. > :20:41.international companies. It is because more companies are coming
:20:42. > :20:45.here and paying tax. That is a good thing. There is always more to do
:20:46. > :20:50.and that is why we want to crack down. In the last few weeks in the
:20:51. > :20:56.Finnish Parliament, Labour refused to put to another ?8.7 billion of
:20:57. > :21:02.tax take we could have got by cracking down further. You claim to
:21:03. > :21:08.have made great progress on cracking down on people and companies to pay
:21:09. > :21:13.the tax they should. But the tax gap is the difference between what HMRC
:21:14. > :21:20.takes in and what it should take in. It has barely moved in five years,
:21:21. > :21:23.so where is the progress? He have brought in 150 billion more where we
:21:24. > :21:31.have cracked down on those tax schemes. The gap is still the same
:21:32. > :21:36.as it was five years ago. It's gone from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down.
:21:37. > :21:40.The Prime Minister and the Chancellor said they want to
:21:41. > :21:43.continue work on to get more money on these companies while still
:21:44. > :21:52.having a competitive rate to encourage these companies. While big
:21:53. > :21:55.business and the wealthy continue to prosper, the Office for Budget
:21:56. > :21:59.Responsibility tell us those on average earnings in this country
:22:00. > :22:05.will be earning less in real terms by 2021 than they did in 2008. How
:22:06. > :22:11.can that be fair? I don't see it that way. I haven't seen the figures
:22:12. > :22:15.you have got. What I can say to you, Andrew, we have made sure the
:22:16. > :22:20.minimum wage has gone up, the actual income tax people pay has gone down.
:22:21. > :22:28.So in their pocket, real terms, people have more money. You are the
:22:29. > :22:31.self-styled party of work. We keep emphasising work. Under your
:22:32. > :22:37.government you can work for 13 years and still not earn any more at the
:22:38. > :22:43.end of it, and you did at the start. Where is the reward for effort in
:22:44. > :22:48.that? I have not seen those figures. There are 2.8 million more people,
:22:49. > :22:54.more jobs in economy than there was. 1000 jobs every day and people are
:22:55. > :22:57.working and developing through their careers. This is what I thought was
:22:58. > :23:01.odd in what Rebecca was saying, investing in people is what the
:23:02. > :23:06.apprenticeship levy is about, companies are investing their works
:23:07. > :23:11.force to take more opportunities that there. We are talking about
:23:12. > :23:14.fairness, politicians talk about hard-working people and we know the
:23:15. > :23:20.average earnings are no higher than they were in 2008. We know the pay
:23:21. > :23:23.and bonuses of senior executives have continued to grow and the
:23:24. > :23:27.Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown 3 million of the poorest
:23:28. > :23:32.households will lose an average of ?2500 a year in the next Parliament,
:23:33. > :23:40.benefits frozen, further sanctions kick in. 3 million of the poorest
:23:41. > :23:45.losing 2500. Under the Tories, one law for the rich and another for the
:23:46. > :23:49.poor. It is quite wrong. First of all, we have got to be fair to the
:23:50. > :23:53.taxpayer who is funding the welfare and benefit system. Which is why the
:23:54. > :24:04.welfare was right. Get more people in work and then it is important to
:24:05. > :24:07.get more people upscaling. As that allowance rises, people have more of
:24:08. > :24:14.the money they earn in their pocket to be able to use in the economy.
:24:15. > :24:19.People will be worse off. 2500, among the poorest already. They will
:24:20. > :24:25.have more money in their pocket as we increase the allowance before
:24:26. > :24:31.people pay tax. We have seen millions of people coming out of tax
:24:32. > :24:35.altogether. The reason I ask these questions, you and the Prime
:24:36. > :24:39.Minister go on and on about the just about managing classes. I am talking
:24:40. > :24:44.about the just about managing and below that. It is all talk, you
:24:45. > :24:47.haven't done anything for them. We have made sure they have an
:24:48. > :24:54.increasing minimum wage, it has gone up more under us than any other
:24:55. > :24:59.previous government. Their wages will be still lower in real terms.
:25:00. > :25:03.Let me come on to this plan for housing. We have announced a new
:25:04. > :25:08.plan to increase affordable housing, social housing, some council housing
:25:09. > :25:13.and social housing built by the associations. How much money is
:25:14. > :25:18.behind this? It is part of the 1.4 billion announced in the Autumn
:25:19. > :25:23.Statement. How many homes will you get for 1.4 billion? That depends on
:25:24. > :25:27.the negotiations with local authorities. It is local
:25:28. > :25:35.authorities, who know the area best. I will not put a number on that. 1.4
:25:36. > :25:39.billion, if you price the house at 100,000, which is very low,
:25:40. > :25:46.particularly for the South, back at you 14,000 new homes. That is it.
:25:47. > :25:49.What we have seen before, how the local government can leveraged to
:25:50. > :25:54.build thousands more homes. That is what we want to see across the
:25:55. > :25:56.country. It is not just about the money, for a lot of local
:25:57. > :26:03.authorities it is about the expertise and knowledge on how to do
:26:04. > :26:06.this. That is why support from the housing communities minister will
:26:07. > :26:13.help. What is the timescale, how many more affordable homes will be
:26:14. > :26:18.built? I will not put a number on it. You announced it today, so you
:26:19. > :26:22.cannot tell me how many more or what the target is? It is a matter of
:26:23. > :26:26.working with the local authorities who know what their local needs are,
:26:27. > :26:29.what land they have got available. What we saw through the local
:26:30. > :26:35.elections with the Metro mayors, they want to deliver in their areas,
:26:36. > :26:37.whether it is the West of England, the north-east, Liverpool,
:26:38. > :26:43.Manchester and we want to work with them. You have said variations of
:26:44. > :26:46.this for the past seven years and I want some credibility. When you
:26:47. > :26:52.cannot tell us how much money, what the target and timescale is, and
:26:53. > :26:57.this government, under which affordable house building has fallen
:26:58. > :27:02.to a 24 year low. 1.2 million families are on waiting lists for
:27:03. > :27:07.social housing to rent. That is your record. Why should we believe a word
:27:08. > :27:12.you say? This is different to what we have been doing over the last two
:27:13. > :27:16.years. We want to develop and have a strong and stable economy that can
:27:17. > :27:25.sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This is important. In 2010, we inherited
:27:26. > :27:30.the lowest level of house building, 75,000 new homes. That is about
:27:31. > :27:34.189,000 over the last four years. That is a big step forward after the
:27:35. > :27:45.crash, getting people back into the industry. More first-time buyers
:27:46. > :27:50.onto the market. Final question, in 2010, 2011, your first year in
:27:51. > :27:56.government, there were 60,000 affordable homes built. May not be
:27:57. > :28:02.enough, but last day it was 30 2000. So why should we trust anything you
:28:03. > :28:10.say about this? On housing, we have delivered. We have delivered more
:28:11. > :28:15.social housing. Double what Labour did in 13 years, in just five years.
:28:16. > :28:18.This is what this policy is about, working with local authorities to
:28:19. > :28:22.deliver more homes to people in their local areas. Thank you.
:28:23. > :28:25.Now, they have a deficit of between 15 and 20% in the polls,
:28:26. > :28:28.but Jeremy Corbyn and those around him insist Labour can win.
:28:29. > :28:31.If the polls are right they've got three and half weeks to change
:28:32. > :28:33.voters' minds and persuade those fabled undecided voters
:28:34. > :28:38.We enlisted the polling organisation YouGov to help us find out how
:28:39. > :28:40.the performance of party leaders will affect behaviour
:28:41. > :28:50.Leeds, a city of three quarters of a million people,
:28:51. > :28:55.eight Parliamentary seats and home to our very own focus group.
:28:56. > :28:57.Our panel was recruited from a variety of backgrounds
:28:58. > :29:01.and the majority say they haven't decided who to vote for yet.
:29:02. > :29:03.Watching behind the glass, two experts on different sides
:29:04. > :29:11.Giles Cunningham, who headed up political press at Downing Street
:29:12. > :29:17.under David Cameron and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter,
:29:18. > :29:19.under David Cameron and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter,
:29:20. > :29:23.I think Theresa May sees herself as a pound shop Thatcher.
:29:24. > :29:43.Milliband's policies but when it came
:29:44. > :29:47.about who you want, if you wake up on maybe a 2015,
:29:48. > :29:51.We found in a couple of focus groups, people saying
:29:52. > :29:53.we'd be quite relieved, even though some of those same
:29:54. > :29:56.people have been saying we quite like the Labour policies.
:29:57. > :30:00.I think the fact that Corbyn's going so hard on his values,
:30:01. > :30:02.this is a really progressive manifesto, they live
:30:03. > :30:06.But I think that's a new challenge, that wasn't there in 2015.
:30:07. > :30:08.Is there anyone here that you don't recognise?
:30:09. > :30:10.After a little warm up, the first exercise, recognising
:30:11. > :30:17.I think it's nice to have a strong woman in politics, I do.
:30:18. > :30:20.But I've got to say, when she comes on the news,
:30:21. > :30:22.I kind of do think, here we go again.
:30:23. > :30:24.Tell me about Tim Farron, what are your impressions of Tim Farron?
:30:25. > :30:29.It isn't going to do anything, it isn't going to change anything.
:30:30. > :30:38.You'll be surprised to hear it's actually the Greens.
:30:39. > :30:50.Strong and stable leadership in the national interest.
:30:51. > :30:55.Yes, Team May, it's the British equivalent of make
:30:56. > :31:05.What do we think about this one for the many and not the few?
:31:06. > :31:07.It's not quite as bad as strong and stable,
:31:08. > :31:10.but it will probably get on our nerves after a while.
:31:11. > :31:20.We must seize that chance today and every day until June the 8th.
:31:21. > :31:28.But that's not quite my question, my question is,
:31:29. > :31:31.if you are Prime Minister, we will leave, come hell or high
:31:32. > :31:34.water, whatever is on the table at the end of the negotiations?
:31:35. > :31:37.If we win the election, we'll get a good deal with Europe.
:31:38. > :31:38.Assertive and in control and he felt comfortable
:31:39. > :31:43.But the second one, I thought he was very hesitant.
:31:44. > :31:53.I thought he was kind of, hovering around, skirting around
:31:54. > :31:55.and that's the second time I've seen a similar
:31:56. > :31:57.interview with the question being asked regarding Brexit.
:31:58. > :31:59.I don't think I'd have any confidence with him
:32:00. > :32:03.You think you are going up against some quite strong people,
:32:04. > :32:05.how are you going to stand up for us?
:32:06. > :32:10.When you are in negotiations, you need to be tough.
:32:11. > :32:12.And actually is right to be tough sometimes,
:32:13. > :32:14.particularly when you are doing something for the country.
:32:15. > :32:16.There's a reason for talking about strong and stable leadership.
:32:17. > :32:18.It's about the future of the country, it's
:32:19. > :32:23.It's just that people kind of listen to that kind of thing and think
:32:24. > :32:28.Both on The One Show and in the news.
:32:29. > :32:34.She attracts the public better than what Corbyn does.
:32:35. > :32:37.She didn't answer the question in a more articular way than Corbyn
:32:38. > :32:43.Imagine that Theresa May is an animal.
:32:44. > :32:46.So, in your minds, what animal is coming to mind
:32:47. > :33:01.I've done a Pekinese because I think she's all bark and no bite.
:33:02. > :33:07.Alpaca because she's superior looking and woolly
:33:08. > :33:23.I don't think his policies are for the modern, real world.
:33:24. > :33:26.A mouse because they are weak and they can be easily bullied,
:33:27. > :33:28.but also they can catch you by surprise if you're
:33:29. > :33:36.What do you take away from what you saw then,
:33:37. > :33:39.and what message would you send back to the Tories now?
:33:40. > :33:42.I think what came over is people see Theresa May as a strong politician,
:33:43. > :33:45.not everyone likes her, but you don't need to be
:33:46. > :33:47.liked to be elected, because ultimately it's about who do
:33:48. > :33:49.you trust with your future and your security.
:33:50. > :33:52.I think what I also take out of that focus group,
:33:53. > :33:55.was it was a group of floating voters, there was no huge appetite
:33:56. > :33:58.for the Lib Dems and there was no huge appetite for Ukip.
:33:59. > :34:01.So my messaged back to CCHQ would be stick to the plan.
:34:02. > :34:04.I thought the response to the manifesto was excellent.
:34:05. > :34:06.It's clear that people aren't particularly keen on Theresa May,
:34:07. > :34:11.There are some associations with her about strength and stability,
:34:12. > :34:15.which is exactly what the Tory party want of course, but they are not
:34:16. > :34:17.positive and nobody thinks that she has a vision
:34:18. > :34:23.So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn, what I'd say to the Labour Party is,
:34:24. > :34:25.they need to really emphasise the manifesto in
:34:26. > :34:31.Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform out of his skin and I think
:34:32. > :34:34.he has to reemphasise those characteristics which may be have
:34:35. > :34:36.come to the fore may be over the last 12 months,
:34:37. > :34:39.resilience, strength and the fact that he's come this far,
:34:40. > :34:42.why not take that final step and go into ten Downing Street?
:34:43. > :34:44.We're joined now by the American political consultant
:34:45. > :34:53.For the sake of this discussion, assume the polls at the moment are
:34:54. > :34:59.broadly right, is there any hope for Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters?
:35:00. > :35:04.Know, and this is a very serious collection with serious consequences
:35:05. > :35:07.to who wins. Nobody cares whether you can draw and what animal they
:35:08. > :35:12.represent, they want to know where they stand, and I felt that was
:35:13. > :35:17.frivolous. I come to Britain to watch elections because I learned
:35:18. > :35:20.from here. Your elections are more substantial, more serious, more
:35:21. > :35:25.policy and less about personality and that peace was only about
:35:26. > :35:29.personality. That's partly because Mrs May has decided to make this a
:35:30. > :35:44.presidential election. You can see on the posters it is all Team May. I
:35:45. > :35:49.agree with that, and in her language she says not everyone benefits from
:35:50. > :35:52.a Conservative government, I don't see how using anything Republicans
:35:53. > :35:56.have used in the past. In fact her campaign is more of a centrist
:35:57. > :36:02.Democrats but it is a smart strategy because it pushes Corbyn further to
:36:03. > :36:07.the left. Of course you said Hillary Clinton have won. On election night
:36:08. > :36:13.the polling was so bad in America, the exit polls that were done, the
:36:14. > :36:18.BBC told America she had won. No, I was anchoring the programme that
:36:19. > :36:26.night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC had the same numbers. Yes, but we
:36:27. > :36:31.did not say she had won, I can assure you of that. Because of
:36:32. > :36:38.people like you we thought she had but we didn't broadcast it. That was
:36:39. > :36:43.a smart approach. My point is other than teasing you, maybe there is
:36:44. > :36:47.hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you will have one of the lowest turnout
:36:48. > :36:52.in modern history and I think Labour will fall to one of the lowest
:36:53. > :36:57.percentages, not percentage of number of seats they have had, and
:36:58. > :37:01.this will be a matter of soul-searching for both political
:37:02. > :37:05.parties. What you do with a sizeable majority, and she has a
:37:06. > :37:10.responsibility to tell the British people exactly what happens as she
:37:11. > :37:15.moves forward. He and Labour will have to take a look at whether they
:37:16. > :37:20.still represent a significant slice of the British population. Do you
:37:21. > :37:24.see a realignment in British politics taking place? I see a
:37:25. > :37:28.crumbling of the left and yet there is still a significant percentage of
:37:29. > :37:38.the British population that once someone who is centre-left. And they
:37:39. > :37:41.like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies. I'm listening to Michael foot. I
:37:42. > :37:44.went to school here in the 1980s and I feel like I'm watching the Labour
:37:45. > :37:45.Party of 35 years ago, in a population that wants to focus on
:37:46. > :37:51.the future, not the past. Thank you. It's just gone 11.35,
:37:52. > :37:53.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:54. > :37:56.in Scotland, who leave us now Hello and welcome once again
:37:57. > :38:07.to Sunday Politics Wales. Well, this was the week
:38:08. > :38:11.when the general election We'll have the latest from
:38:12. > :38:16.the campaign trail in a few minutes. But first the latest in our series
:38:17. > :38:19.of interviews with the main Welsh The party's leader in the Assembly,
:38:20. > :38:38.Neil Hamilton, is here with me now. Good morning. I remember a while ago
:38:39. > :38:43.interviewing you and you said that Ukip is a permanent feature of the
:38:44. > :38:47.political landscape in Wales now. After those local elections a couple
:38:48. > :38:53.of weeks ago, that can't be a claim you can make any longer, is it? Yes,
:38:54. > :38:57.because the big difference between Wales and the rest of the United
:38:58. > :39:00.Kingdom is that in the Welsh Assembly elections, we have
:39:01. > :39:03.proportional representation system in voting, unlike in the general
:39:04. > :39:08.election which is happening now, where there is a binary squeeze on
:39:09. > :39:12.small parties by the Tories and Labour, squeezing out the smaller
:39:13. > :39:16.parties. That won't happen in the Assembly elections in four years'
:39:17. > :39:20.time. This general election has come at a very inopportune time for Ukip.
:39:21. > :39:25.We have got a new leader who had not had a chance to bed himself in, we
:39:26. > :39:30.have still got to communicate what unit -- Ukip is foreclosed Brexit,
:39:31. > :39:33.and we have the time to do that for 20/20. It sounds like you are
:39:34. > :39:38.preparing the ground for a disappointing set of results. We
:39:39. > :39:42.don't have any MPs at the moment so we have got nothing to lose. This
:39:43. > :39:46.election is a work in progress to us. My message to people who voted
:39:47. > :39:49.Ukip in the past who might now be tempted to vote for Theresa May is
:39:50. > :39:53.that she doesn't need your vote because she is going to win by a
:39:54. > :39:57.massive majority anyway. We need Ukip to be able insurers policy to
:39:58. > :40:04.get the best from Brexit. But when you hear Paul Nuttall say if Theresa
:40:05. > :40:12.May gets a good deal from Brexit, he is happy for Ukip to lose votes, it
:40:13. > :40:18.sounds like you are waving the white flag already. But he doesn't believe
:40:19. > :40:22.she is going to get a good deal. She has been Home Secretary or Prime
:40:23. > :40:25.Minister for the last seven years, now standing on a programme of
:40:26. > :40:30.reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, she has added 2 million
:40:31. > :40:35.people to the British pop -- population. We need to be there to
:40:36. > :40:39.keep her on track. We would never have had a referendum in the first
:40:40. > :40:44.place but for Ukip. That is your message but it does seem that the
:40:45. > :40:48.population, the voters, just aren't lit -- listening. The sense you get
:40:49. > :40:51.from you get now is that you are a party in search of a purpose and
:40:52. > :40:55.there is no point to you. That is what the polls tell us but things
:40:56. > :40:58.can change in the middle of an election campaign. I remember the
:40:59. > :41:02.1992 election when Neil Kinnock thought it was a done deal and then
:41:03. > :41:07.we had the Sheffield rally and Labour lost big time. So things can
:41:08. > :41:10.change. I hope as we move through this election campaign, Ukip voters
:41:11. > :41:16.from last time we'll see the sense of keeping Ukip in the game to put
:41:17. > :41:19.pressure on Theresa May to deliver the best Brexit for Britain, which
:41:20. > :41:26.otherwise she might be tempted to give away. But beyond Brexit, what
:41:27. > :41:29.did Ukip stand for? We have a full programme for this election which
:41:30. > :41:35.will be announced in our manifesto launch very shortly. Let me mention
:41:36. > :41:40.a handful. We would slash the foreign aid budget by ?8 billion to
:41:41. > :41:46.put the money into health service? --. We would scrap green taxes. We
:41:47. > :41:49.would take Britain out of the European Commission of human rights
:41:50. > :41:58.and restore the sovereignty Bill of court. That is Brexit. Which green
:41:59. > :42:00.taxes would you scrap? We would get rid of charges on people's
:42:01. > :42:07.electricity bills which are necessary to pay subsidies. Where do
:42:08. > :42:11.you get the figure from? That is the conventional figure for the
:42:12. > :42:16.totality. The regulator says ?100 off the average energy Bill. Patrick
:42:17. > :42:23.O'Flynn, your economic spokesman, says its ?100 of the Bill. Why are
:42:24. > :42:27.you seeing 300? That is the figure I have used all along. I believe it to
:42:28. > :42:35.be correct. Is your economic spokesman Ron? There are different
:42:36. > :42:40.kinds of taxes, environmental charges, which are added to people's
:42:41. > :42:47.electricity. If you look at your electricity Bill, roughly a fifth is
:42:48. > :42:52.identified as... But the regulator says it is ?100. Your economic
:42:53. > :42:57.spokesman says it is ?100. Your average electricity Bill in this
:42:58. > :43:04.country is ?1500 a year of which 20% is green charges. It is on your
:43:05. > :43:09.Bill. When we look at migration, the policy from Ukip is one in, one out.
:43:10. > :43:16.Net immigration down to zero in five years' time. That is the aim. We are
:43:17. > :43:20.not going to be the government of the country. That is what we think
:43:21. > :43:23.is achievable. Theresa May says she wants to bring immigration down to
:43:24. > :43:28.tens of thousands so if she can bring it down from around 300,000,
:43:29. > :43:33.it is not a great step to bring it down to zero. But presumably you
:43:34. > :43:39.can't be counting that has anything will happen between now and 2019
:43:40. > :43:42.because we are still in the EU. We would introduce a points-based
:43:43. > :43:47.system such as they have in Australia. There would be temporary
:43:48. > :43:51.permits for people to come and work year for seasonal reasons, fruit
:43:52. > :43:54.pickers and so on, as needed. But the British government would be able
:43:55. > :44:00.to decide for itself what its annual target is. Australia has an annual
:44:01. > :44:05.target. But Australia doesn't have a one in, one out policy. Isn't that
:44:06. > :44:08.just pushing a potential stranglehold on the economy. If the
:44:09. > :44:13.economy was growing, we would want more people to fill the jobs being
:44:14. > :44:18.created. Why are you putting this arbitrary figure of zero net
:44:19. > :44:21.migration down? We are adding a city the size of Cardiff to our operation
:44:22. > :44:26.every year at the moment. We think that there needs to be a moratorium
:44:27. > :44:32.within a reasonable timescale on immigration in order to get the
:44:33. > :44:36.system under control. Yes, it can vary from year to year and that will
:44:37. > :44:39.be an annual decision for the Home Secretary and the government to
:44:40. > :44:44.take. At the moment we can't take that decision because we can't
:44:45. > :44:47.control EU immigration. But we can control immigration from outside the
:44:48. > :44:55.EU and the government isn't doing it. But it varies from year to year.
:44:56. > :44:59.That zero Tadic, does it remain? It will be open to review every single
:45:00. > :45:04.year. It depends what the needs of the economy are and what are the
:45:05. > :45:08.pressures on public services which will be influenced if the numbers
:45:09. > :45:12.are too great. But that is very different from what Paul Nuttall is
:45:13. > :45:18.saying. Within five years, net immigration down to zero. What you
:45:19. > :45:20.are saying is different. What we are saying is that our aim should be
:45:21. > :45:25.stability in the numbers and from there on, it would be an annual
:45:26. > :45:31.review, which is what happens in all countries. So it is not something
:45:32. > :45:37.which is difficult. It takes time to set the system up. So that target of
:45:38. > :45:41.achieving this in five years, it doesn't sound achievable from what
:45:42. > :45:45.you are saying. Ukip is not going to be the government of the country so
:45:46. > :45:49.it is a bit like asking how many angels are dancing on the head of a
:45:50. > :45:58.pin. So why bother having a manifesto? Why make promises? I
:45:59. > :46:02.could sit here and say we are in the game to win, and indeed we are, but
:46:03. > :46:06.in reality we are not going to be the government on the 9th of June.
:46:07. > :46:10.We want to get a good vote out of the election to take us to the next
:46:11. > :46:14.stage. How likely is it that you can be the man to achieve that? If you
:46:15. > :46:17.are looking at the polls, the most recent polls we have in Wales have
:46:18. > :46:24.your personal ratings at the lowest that anybody has ever had in any of
:46:25. > :46:29.these polls. It is 1.9 out of ten on average for all parties. It is only
:46:30. > :46:34.three out of ten among Ukip voters. Are you part of the problem? I am
:46:35. > :46:39.only the leader of Ukip group in the Assembly. I am not seeking to be
:46:40. > :46:44.Prime Minister of the UK. But you are a leading member of the party. I
:46:45. > :46:49.have come into this to do a job, to lead the Ukip group in the Assembly,
:46:50. > :46:53.because I have got a great deal of political experience as a member of
:46:54. > :46:59.Parliament, as a government minister, and I have been around a
:47:00. > :47:03.long time and so I have got certain advantages that I have been able to
:47:04. > :47:06.bring to professionalise Ukip in Wales and to get is the kind of
:47:07. > :47:10.media attention which is going to enable us to go forward. I don't
:47:11. > :47:12.have long-term political ambitions beyond this. Thank you very much for
:47:13. > :47:15.your time this morning. So, no sooner had the local election
:47:16. > :47:18.ended that the general It's the fifth poll over
:47:19. > :47:22.the last two years. Spare a thought for those long
:47:23. > :47:24.suffering party activists. We love it of course,
:47:25. > :47:26.as does our political He's been in the thick of it
:47:27. > :47:31.on the campaign trail this week. Oh, look, it's Boris Johnson
:47:32. > :47:38.visiting Newport market. Well, either that or he just
:47:39. > :47:45.fancied a cheese sandwich. But there hasn't always
:47:46. > :47:54.been a welcome They were wiped off the Welsh
:47:55. > :47:59.electoral map back in 1997. The polls look very promising
:48:00. > :48:03.for the party this time around but will they translate
:48:04. > :48:06.into extra seats? The Conservative Party
:48:07. > :48:13.especially during the Thatcher years was accused of taking
:48:14. > :48:16.Wales for granted, for imposing Welsh Secretaries
:48:17. > :48:20.from English constituencies. And we know what happened
:48:21. > :48:25.in Clwyd South. The Conservative Party wants
:48:26. > :48:31.to govern for all the people Yes, Theresa May has a very exciting
:48:32. > :48:37.and different agenda from many Conservative
:48:38. > :48:39.governments in the past. She wants to reach out
:48:40. > :48:44.to all communities. You heard what she said
:48:45. > :48:46.in her speech today. She genuinely wants to reach out
:48:47. > :48:49.to all sorts of families who have never previously thought
:48:50. > :48:51.of themselves as Conservatives and I think that's
:48:52. > :48:53.a fantastic thing to do. If things had gone a little
:48:54. > :48:56.differently for Boris Johnson, he could have been a Welsh MP
:48:57. > :48:59.as he stood for the party in Clwyd South in 1997,
:49:00. > :49:01.but as the Foreign Secretary has repeatedly said,
:49:02. > :49:05.he fought Clwyd South in what was a landslide victory
:49:06. > :49:09.for the Labour Party. the shoe is very much
:49:10. > :49:13.on the other foot these days. Labour-supporting
:49:14. > :49:18.seagulls, I'm sure. One is a comedian,
:49:19. > :49:26.the other's Eddie Izzard. What kind of Prime Minister do
:49:27. > :49:29.you think Jeremy Corbyn would make? What kind of Prime Minister
:49:30. > :49:33.would Theresa May make? She's obviously for
:49:34. > :49:42.the few, not the many. I've always said
:49:43. > :49:47.I'm a radical moderate. I prefer a Labour Party
:49:48. > :49:49.with Jeremy Corbyn rather than a Tory Party
:49:50. > :49:51.with Theresa May. And yet there was no mention
:49:52. > :49:54.of the C word at Welsh Labour's election launch
:49:55. > :49:56.earlier in the week. I know, but you are still voting
:49:57. > :50:07.for the Labour Party in Wales. What's the funniest thing that's
:50:08. > :50:10.happened on the campaign so far? Nothing funny happens to me
:50:11. > :50:12.because I'm a comedian. I haven't met her but
:50:13. > :50:24.I'll make sure I will. Well, at least the Lib Dem leader
:50:25. > :50:27.gave us some light relief. Tim Farron dusted himself off
:50:28. > :50:35.to give us his party's best Reservoir Dogs impression
:50:36. > :50:38.on a visit to Cardiff. Last week the party
:50:39. > :50:40.lost council seats. Not just in the capital
:50:41. > :50:43.but across Wales. We took the poll in Cardiff Central
:50:44. > :50:47.and in other parts of Wales and we had great support in many
:50:48. > :50:51.areas across the country. What I think last Thursday told us
:50:52. > :50:54.is what we should probably It's obvious to me that Theresa May
:50:55. > :50:59.call this election knowing the Conservative Party,
:51:00. > :51:04.not in the interests of the country. And we are going to
:51:05. > :51:06.head for a landslide. Tim Farron there, unconventionally
:51:07. > :51:08.calling on voters to make him And given that they have just
:51:09. > :51:14.nine seats in the Commons, including one in Wales,
:51:15. > :51:18.even that sounds like a long shot. It's been very lonely,
:51:19. > :51:20.I don't mind saying that, but yes,
:51:21. > :51:22.the only one from Wales. I work with other parties
:51:23. > :51:24.in the House of Commons but I would greatly like to see
:51:25. > :51:27.more company from Wales They are not in the market
:51:28. > :51:31.for a new house but these Plaid Cymru candidates
:51:32. > :51:33.are out for your votes in an election that they think
:51:34. > :51:37.is primarily about Yes, it is a Brexit election,
:51:38. > :51:42.no doubt about that. And what we are saying is,
:51:43. > :51:47.the kind of money coming to Wales through the European Union
:51:48. > :51:50.in structural funds and money for our
:51:51. > :51:53.agriculture community, that has to come back
:51:54. > :51:56.to Wales So this is a very important
:51:57. > :52:01.debate for us in Wales. Who is going to be arguing
:52:02. > :52:04.in the next Westminster parliament that that money should be
:52:05. > :52:06.transferred to Wales? It shouldn't be given
:52:07. > :52:09.as tax cuts to the rich, it should be given to promote
:52:10. > :52:11.the Welsh economy and we believe, in that context,
:52:12. > :52:14.Plaid Cymru is the only party Ironically, Ukip may suffer if this
:52:15. > :52:20.is seen as a Brexit election. Do the voters want the party
:52:21. > :52:24.that was created to campaign for Brexit to play
:52:25. > :52:27.a part in the process? We will know about their
:52:28. > :52:31.and the other parties' and candidates' fortunes
:52:32. > :52:36.in just over three weeks' time. Joining me now to talk
:52:37. > :52:38.about where this week's toings and froings leave the parties
:52:39. > :52:43.are Jess Blair, the Director of the Electoral Reform Society,
:52:44. > :52:45.and Rebecca Williams, who's in charge of the Country
:52:46. > :52:49.Landowners Association Private Secretary to
:52:50. > :53:06.the Secretary of State for Wales. Looking at what we have seen last
:53:07. > :53:09.week, highlight or lowlight, that interfere with Theresa May, we
:53:10. > :53:12.didn't learn very much but I guess that wasn't the point. The point of
:53:13. > :53:17.the interview was about humanising the Prime Minister that for some
:53:18. > :53:22.will have seen as quite removed from normal human life. Bringing her
:53:23. > :53:25.husband and giving some kind of sense of normal family life is
:53:26. > :53:30.exactly what she needs to do in Wales. But as somebody who campaigns
:53:31. > :53:34.on the democracy, political side of it, do you think that the tone of
:53:35. > :53:39.the debate or is it better that more people are engaged? Ultimately, it
:53:40. > :53:43.is all about engagement but there is an irony in seeing more people can
:53:44. > :53:46.see what she's like when the Prime Minister and the leader of the
:53:47. > :53:51.Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, refused to do TV debates, so there is an ink
:53:52. > :53:56.-- element of engagement but only on their terms. When we see the two
:53:57. > :54:01.campaigns, the Conservatives versus the Labour campaign, they couldn't
:54:02. > :54:05.be more different. One very tightly controlled, in charge of what is
:54:06. > :54:09.happening, and then Jeremy Corbyn's campaign seems to be a lot more
:54:10. > :54:15.meeting anyone but let's control of what's going on. Maybe that's the
:54:16. > :54:19.image that they want to get across, that Italy Theresa May. That
:54:20. > :54:23.controlled approach suggests how she may run the Brexit negotiations if
:54:24. > :54:27.she is successful in this election. I think she's being very measured in
:54:28. > :54:31.her approach and even when she does bring her husband along, it's very
:54:32. > :54:36.much on her terms. I think that control is very important to her.
:54:37. > :54:41.What about, from the Labour side of things, we saw last week the leaping
:54:42. > :54:44.of the manifesto. It doesn't look like everything is going very
:54:45. > :54:50.smoothly and steadily there. But is that part of the charm for Jeremy
:54:51. > :54:55.Corbyn? This is how Jeremy Corbyn has worked for many years, since he
:54:56. > :54:58.has become leader. It has been one battle after another and this has
:54:59. > :55:03.probably been another battle for him. People still voted for him in
:55:04. > :55:07.his leadership election. Do you think anybody cares about the fact
:55:08. > :55:11.that the manifesto was leaked? Who would have leaked that? Who benefits
:55:12. > :55:15.from that? All they will have is wall-to-wall coverage all day of the
:55:16. > :55:20.content of the manifesto. Do people care if it was leaked? I think Welsh
:55:21. > :55:24.Labour care very much because we saw from their reaction, Wednesday
:55:25. > :55:31.morning, that they were not happy at all. Because they could have
:55:32. > :55:35.prepared for it? Yes, because it goes against the clear red water
:55:36. > :55:41.that is happening in this election. It could undermine Carwyn Jones'
:55:42. > :55:44.position. He has created an ocean between Welsh Labour and Labour in
:55:45. > :55:49.Westminster at least in terms of perception. When you look at the
:55:50. > :55:53.message from that manifesto, which may or may not change, some of those
:55:54. > :55:58.policies will strike a chord with the voters. We nationalising
:55:59. > :56:03.railways, that is a big one. Higher taxes for top earners. Might there
:56:04. > :56:09.be a problem that it is not the message, it is the messenger. Or
:56:10. > :56:15.will people look through that? The fact we are talking about it, Labour
:56:16. > :56:18.achieved what they wanted to do. The leak is irrelevant now. We are
:56:19. > :56:22.talking about what Labour want is to be talking about and what they have
:56:23. > :56:25.in their manifesto. We are not talking about the potential
:56:26. > :56:29.Conservative manifesto because it is not out there. So the league has
:56:30. > :56:33.played into their hands and raise the profile of some really
:56:34. > :56:37.interesting ideas. How realistic they are, because we haven't seen
:56:38. > :56:42.the full manifesto, we can't delve into that detail yet. I am going to
:56:43. > :56:46.prove you wrong and talk about what might be in the Conservative
:56:47. > :56:50.manifesto. Are we likely to see a long list of detailed plans of what
:56:51. > :56:55.they want to see us Chamakh or will it be a very light manifesto and not
:56:56. > :57:00.promise too much? I think it is more likely to be on the lighter side can
:57:01. > :57:04.the heavy side. The more you promise, the harder it is to deliver
:57:05. > :57:08.against all of those. I suspect there will be a lot of high-level
:57:09. > :57:12.principles in there and maybe some key objectives but the majority of
:57:13. > :57:18.those will be Brexit focused, I imagine. And that Labour manifesto
:57:19. > :57:23.that we saw, you were saying about Welsh Labour, a Welsh campaign,
:57:24. > :57:27.different priorities, do you think that difference, that clear red
:57:28. > :57:31.water, will help them in Wales? Or will voters in Wales, like
:57:32. > :57:37.elsewhere, like those promises of renationalising the railways and
:57:38. > :57:41.electricity companies and so on? I think Arwyn Jones being presented as
:57:42. > :57:44.the Welsh Labour leader is the best chance Labour have in Wales. At the
:57:45. > :57:51.local elections they managed to mitigate a lot of losses -- Carwyn
:57:52. > :57:57.Jones. It is the best shot they have got. We heard from Neil Hamilton,
:57:58. > :58:05.saying about the squeeze for Ukip, is there a danger for Plaid Cymru,
:58:06. > :58:10.for the Liberal Democrats, that they could be squeezed out of these
:58:11. > :58:13.elections? That is the most telling thing in the campaign so far, how
:58:14. > :58:18.much we are focusing on Labour and the Conservatives at the expense of
:58:19. > :58:21.the other parties. And the independence as well. They are
:58:22. > :58:25.really been squeezed out of the media and of conversation and that
:58:26. > :58:30.is a concern in terms of the long-term trend of politics. Plaid
:58:31. > :58:35.Cymru, for example, what can they do to reverse that? Leanne Wood, we saw
:58:36. > :58:42.that, will she stand, will she stand in the Rhondda? Is that the kind of
:58:43. > :58:45.attention they want? I don't think so. The biggest opportunity Plaid
:58:46. > :58:49.Cymru have got is the leaders debates and getting Leanne Wood as
:58:50. > :58:54.the leader of Plaid Cymru in the public but that has got to be
:58:55. > :58:57.balanced with targeting key seats. There is lots of talk about
:58:58. > :59:02.potentially the Rhondda and Anglesey, those are the of seeds
:59:03. > :59:10.they want to be targeting and that national message has to permeate
:59:11. > :59:15.into those constituencies. How much change will those leader debates
:59:16. > :59:18.give us? We are not printed at the big-ticket, Jeremy Corbyn against
:59:19. > :59:22.Theresa May, but could that change the fortunes of the Lib Dems and
:59:23. > :59:28.Plaid Cymru? Certainly, we saw at the last election that the Lib Dems
:59:29. > :59:32.did very well with Nick Clegg's approach to those debates and Leanne
:59:33. > :59:35.Wood did very well. We talk a lot more about Scottish politics because
:59:36. > :59:40.of the leadership debate and the profile that has, so definitely it
:59:41. > :59:44.has an impact. People now expect to see and hear from their politicians.
:59:45. > :59:49.They are more media savvy. We want to see our politicians on the
:59:50. > :59:54.television and I think it will be interesting to see what impact that
:59:55. > :00:00.will have in terms of turnout. And in terms of general engagement. When
:00:01. > :00:05.we are looking at turnout, is it going to be a higher turnout because
:00:06. > :00:10.people think it is important, Brexit is going on, or lower because people
:00:11. > :00:16.are assuming Theresa May might get a landslide? We know that when the
:00:17. > :00:19.elections are perceived as having a foregone conclusion, fewer people
:00:20. > :00:23.turn out to vote, but the question is, on the back of the EU
:00:24. > :00:28.referendum, when we saw a lot of people engage in last year, is there
:00:29. > :00:35.any benefit from that? That is to be determined on June the 8th. I agree.
:00:36. > :00:38.I am worried that some of the other parties, particularly Plaid Cymru
:00:39. > :00:42.and the Liberal Democrats would get their voices across. People with it
:00:43. > :00:47.is a two horse race and that is not good for anybody. We need to hear
:00:48. > :00:50.different voices. The fact that Ukip are not standing in a few seats this
:00:51. > :00:52.year, what does that say about what they think their chances are? I
:00:53. > :00:55.think that is a step backwards. You can follow all the
:00:56. > :00:58.latest election news on @walespolitics on Twitter.
:00:59. > :01:00.Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out
:01:01. > :01:07.of time. On Thursday nominations closed
:01:08. > :01:12.in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,
:01:13. > :01:14.so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'
:01:15. > :01:21.candidates to find out what they might tell us
:01:22. > :01:24.about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is
:01:25. > :01:28.committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative
:01:29. > :01:33.candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,
:01:34. > :01:36.37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum
:01:37. > :01:44.campaign and 20 supported remain; 43
:01:45. > :01:46.have not made public In the last parliament,
:01:47. > :01:52.the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how
:01:53. > :01:54.supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's
:01:55. > :02:01.top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed
:02:02. > :02:03.support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith
:02:04. > :02:08.in last year's leadership contest or have expressed
:02:09. > :02:12.anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,
:02:13. > :02:18.the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic
:02:19. > :02:20.to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us
:02:21. > :02:23.about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not
:02:24. > :02:26.to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,
:02:27. > :02:28.and are fielding 629 candidates this year -
:02:29. > :02:31.that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has
:02:32. > :02:35.fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer
:02:36. > :02:41.constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind
:02:42. > :02:43.solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes
:02:44. > :02:48.and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding
:02:49. > :02:51.103 fewer candidates than at the last election,
:02:52. > :03:02.standing down to help other progressive candidates
:03:03. > :03:16.in some places. The most liking statistic is the
:03:17. > :03:22.demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It
:03:23. > :03:29.is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard
:03:30. > :03:39.to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think
:03:40. > :03:43.this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of
:03:44. > :03:46.the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the
:03:47. > :03:50.consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that
:03:51. > :03:54.could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's
:03:55. > :04:00.precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was
:04:01. > :04:06.incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of
:04:07. > :04:13.over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it
:04:14. > :04:18.will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now
:04:19. > :04:22.leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole
:04:23. > :04:30.lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer
:04:31. > :04:34.listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,
:04:35. > :04:42.and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory
:04:43. > :04:47.vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one
:04:48. > :04:52.of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't
:04:53. > :04:56.take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the
:04:57. > :05:02.centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal
:05:03. > :05:07.Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly
:05:08. > :05:13.perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is
:05:14. > :05:17.only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean
:05:18. > :05:22.the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David
:05:23. > :05:26.Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in
:05:27. > :05:31.Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is
:05:32. > :05:36.disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in
:05:37. > :05:41.the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in
:05:42. > :05:44.France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't
:05:45. > :05:49.get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,
:05:50. > :05:55.and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has
:05:56. > :05:59.seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with
:06:00. > :06:02.some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the
:06:03. > :06:06.analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory
:06:07. > :06:11.candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the
:06:12. > :06:15.referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all
:06:16. > :06:19.about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable
:06:20. > :06:24.position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that
:06:25. > :06:30.I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are
:06:31. > :06:36.seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on
:06:37. > :06:40.them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the
:06:41. > :06:44.law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some
:06:45. > :06:51.of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being
:06:52. > :06:57.called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour
:06:58. > :07:02.Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring
:07:03. > :07:07.bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me
:07:08. > :07:13.bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.
:07:14. > :07:23.And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it
:07:24. > :07:27.wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the
:07:28. > :07:33.north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For
:07:34. > :07:37.me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.
:07:38. > :07:41.This will be, I think, the most important day for the British
:07:42. > :07:49.government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You
:07:50. > :07:53.actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday
:07:54. > :08:02.Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...
:08:03. > :08:06.I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get
:08:07. > :08:10.the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will
:08:11. > :08:16.lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take
:08:17. > :08:19.some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and
:08:20. > :08:24.theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will
:08:25. > :08:27.say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,
:08:28. > :08:31.though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver
:08:32. > :08:33.in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but
:08:34. > :08:47.she does have very different ideas from
:08:48. > :08:49.Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to
:08:50. > :08:52.mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no
:08:53. > :08:55.point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you
:08:56. > :08:58.get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne
:08:59. > :09:01.manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the
:09:02. > :09:05.pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the
:09:06. > :09:10.degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its
:09:11. > :09:16.time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way
:09:17. > :09:20.this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair
:09:21. > :09:25.Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of
:09:26. > :09:28.government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you
:09:29. > :09:33.have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the
:09:34. > :09:37.state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will
:09:38. > :09:43.be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant
:09:44. > :09:47.way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked
:09:48. > :09:54.about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the
:09:55. > :09:59.state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to
:10:00. > :10:04.be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big
:10:05. > :10:10.victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note
:10:11. > :10:16.of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I
:10:17. > :10:21.was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet
:10:22. > :10:25.meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on
:10:26. > :10:32.anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving
:10:33. > :10:38.all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?
:10:39. > :10:44.I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers
:10:45. > :10:51.in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.
:10:52. > :11:02.On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called
:11:03. > :11:06.Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick
:11:07. > :11:12.Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and
:11:13. > :11:16.leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the
:11:17. > :11:20.party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that
:11:21. > :11:24.is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them
:11:25. > :11:33.that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for
:11:34. > :11:40.good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...
:11:41. > :11:48.It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What
:11:49. > :11:53.happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to
:11:54. > :11:58.that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in
:11:59. > :12:02.the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small
:12:03. > :12:06.majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff
:12:07. > :12:10.for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this
:12:11. > :12:15.active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is
:12:16. > :12:19.a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets
:12:20. > :12:24.nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for
:12:25. > :12:28.Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be
:12:29. > :12:33.seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument
:12:34. > :12:38.around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit
:12:39. > :12:42.unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over
:12:43. > :12:49.the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong
:12:50. > :12:54.ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from
:12:55. > :13:01.the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating
:13:02. > :13:04.week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.
:13:05. > :13:06.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon
:13:07. > :13:11.I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.
:13:12. > :13:15.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.