11/06/2017

:00:00. > :00:00.But stay with us for more drama as we can now go straight

:00:00. > :00:12.We are indeed in the sunshine. Welcome from the heart of

:00:13. > :00:26.Westminster. Theresa May reappointing key figures

:00:27. > :00:30.to the Cabinet, sacking had to closest aides, Nick Timothy and

:00:31. > :00:35.Fiona Hill. After Conservative MPs demanded their removal in the

:00:36. > :00:37.Conservative failure to win an overall majority in the House of

:00:38. > :00:42.Commons. Over the next hour and a bit we'll continue to take stock on

:00:43. > :00:43.the remarkable events of the last 72 hours and try to work out where we

:00:44. > :00:47.go from here. First though, here's Adam Fleming

:00:48. > :00:50.with a reminder of the high octane I was going to say this

:00:51. > :00:56.chair is quite warm. Michael Fallon's bum

:00:57. > :01:04.was on this chair. Bums on seats, its election

:01:05. > :01:06.night at the BBC, hosted This is David Dimbleby's

:01:07. > :01:11.actual seat! Look, he's got four pencils,

:01:12. > :01:16.stopwatch and a calculator. And what we are saying

:01:17. > :01:23.is the Conservatives Note, they don't have an overall

:01:24. > :01:31.majority at this stage. 314 for the Conservatives,

:01:32. > :01:33.that's down 17. Luckily there were plenty

:01:34. > :01:43.of politicians who never are. What does this exit

:01:44. > :01:50.poll actually mean? Well, if it's accurate it means

:01:51. > :01:52.Theresa May has just presided over the greatest catastrophe that I can

:01:53. > :01:55.think of in the Conservative We haven't seen a seat change hands

:01:56. > :02:02.and we are hearing about possible Conservative gains in the Midlands

:02:03. > :02:04.and losses in London, People will write Ph.D.s about the

:02:05. > :02:10.2017 election Labour candidates were winning

:02:11. > :02:16.in unexpected places. Tories were losing in unexpected

:02:17. > :02:20.places, including eight members of the Government,

:02:21. > :02:22.like Treasury minister The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd,

:02:23. > :02:30.held on in Hastings...just. OK, the former Deputy Prime Minister

:02:31. > :02:32.and former leader of the Liberal Democrats,

:02:33. > :02:34.Nick Clegg, has been beaten I've always sought to stand

:02:35. > :02:40.by the liberal values I believe in, but I, of course, have encountered

:02:41. > :02:43.this evening something many people have encountered before tonight,

:02:44. > :02:48.and I suspect many people will encounter after tonight,

:02:49. > :02:51.which is - in politics you live by the sword, and you

:02:52. > :02:54.die by the sword. Lib Dem leader Tim Farron

:02:55. > :03:00.was narrowly re-elected in Cumbria, unlike the SNP's Westminster

:03:01. > :03:04.leader Angus Robertson, who lost his seat, former First

:03:05. > :03:07.Minister Alex Salmond defeated too. The Scottish National Party have

:03:08. > :03:11.lost many fine parliamentarians this evening, and that is a grievous blow

:03:12. > :03:16.to the SNP. But overall the results in Scotland

:03:17. > :03:20.show the SNP will have won a majority of the seats in this

:03:21. > :03:23.country and a majority of the vote. Paul Nuttall failed to get

:03:24. > :03:30.elected in Skegness So, the green room looking a bit

:03:31. > :03:37.ruined, a bit like Ukip I think we are doing

:03:38. > :03:41.better than the SNP. I think it's quite interesting

:03:42. > :03:52.the main leading Brexit candidates in this election

:03:53. > :03:56.are getting their seat back. Right, it's dawn in the real world

:03:57. > :04:17.and I found a pub that has been open What state are they going

:04:18. > :04:24.to be in, in there? And was it young people

:04:25. > :04:27.who had seen Corbyn, voted, and got the T-shirt who helped

:04:28. > :04:29.the Labour leader to Right, five past five

:04:30. > :04:34.in the morning, we are outside Jeremy Corbyn's house in Islington

:04:35. > :04:37.in north London. Surprisingly small press pack

:04:38. > :04:39.for the man who's destroyed Jeremy!

:04:40. > :04:42.Jeremy! If there is a message from

:04:43. > :04:49.tonight's result, it's this - the Prime Minister called

:04:50. > :04:51.the election because Well, the mandate she's got is lost

:04:52. > :04:59.Conservative seats, lost votes, I would have thought that's enough

:05:00. > :05:06.to go actually and make way for a government that will be truly

:05:07. > :05:09.representative of all Theresa May did the opposite,

:05:10. > :05:16.popping to the palace, What the country needs more

:05:17. > :05:23.than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest

:05:24. > :05:27.number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general

:05:28. > :05:31.election, it is clear that only the Conservatives and Unionist Party

:05:32. > :05:36.have the legitimacy and ability to provide that certainty

:05:37. > :05:38.by commanding a majority As we do, we will continue to work

:05:39. > :05:46.with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party

:05:47. > :05:52.in particular. 15 hours after election night

:05:53. > :06:24.started, it's all over. And joined by Tom Newton Dunn, Julia

:06:25. > :06:29.Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards. Julia, why did it go so wrong for

:06:30. > :06:32.the Conservatives? You can't run a presidential campaign if you have a

:06:33. > :06:37.candidate with less than the charisma of this desk. If you're not

:06:38. > :06:40.going to put her out to debate, if she's not coming to the people and

:06:41. > :06:45.selling herself, which she studiously didn't do, you can't run

:06:46. > :06:48.that campaign. There was the possibility another leader could

:06:49. > :06:51.have walked that with 800 majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Another

:06:52. > :06:59.campaign, we will never know, could have delivered a majority of 30 or

:07:00. > :07:07.40, without the deal with the DUP. I'm not saying it was fundamentally

:07:08. > :07:12.wrong to call the election at this time, but it was the wrong candidate

:07:13. > :07:17.and the wrong campaign. The third election in a row that Labour has

:07:18. > :07:20.failed to win. It was still a substantial and historic achievement

:07:21. > :07:26.for Jeremy Corbyn. If you consider the context in which this election

:07:27. > :07:30.was called, Theresa May, on her honeymoon to die for, politically,

:07:31. > :07:36.with Labour voters split over Brexit, suddenly calling an election

:07:37. > :07:39.when most Labour MPs were not willing to cooperate with whatever

:07:40. > :07:43.campaign was being held by Labour, for them to do as well as they have

:07:44. > :07:47.done is an extraordinary achievement. They got no more seats

:07:48. > :07:51.than Gordon Brown in 2010, roughly the same. But the context couldn't

:07:52. > :07:56.have been more daunting, and to wipe out a majority of this figure, who

:07:57. > :08:02.six weeks ago was walking on water and appeared to have Brexit as part

:08:03. > :08:05.of her ammunition against the split Labour vote, remains astonishing.

:08:06. > :08:15.One of the errors she made and so many others she made and probably

:08:16. > :08:19.all of us, was to underestimate the potency of Corbyn and the relatively

:08:20. > :08:24.modest social Democrat manifesto. Doesn't it take stupidity bordering

:08:25. > :08:28.on genius to turn a 20 point lead at the start of the campaign into a

:08:29. > :08:33.hung parliament? It does and it did. That's what happened. I think the

:08:34. > :08:36.lead was soft, largely because Theresa May was unknown. We know her

:08:37. > :08:41.because we have been having lunch and interviews with her for years on

:08:42. > :08:46.end. The public didn't know her. They got to know her and they

:08:47. > :08:51.discovered she was the Maybot, which is the term that will stick after

:08:52. > :08:57.this campaign. I differ from my two colleagues here, it wasn't the

:08:58. > :09:01.amazing right of Corbyn, it was a complete failure to remember that

:09:02. > :09:04.people wanted a revolution when they voted for Brexit, and she came

:09:05. > :09:12.across as the party and candidate of continuity. As things stand, we are

:09:13. > :09:17.where we are. Where are we?! Where do we go from here? I was with

:09:18. > :09:20.College Green with you in the early hours of Friday morning and I didn't

:09:21. > :09:27.see anybody that said, see you back here in October. A second election?

:09:28. > :09:32.God forbid, nobody wants a second election, but I can't see the Tories

:09:33. > :09:37.being able to stay in power with the DUP and I'm personally very unhappy

:09:38. > :09:40.with a lot of DUP policies, their stance on gay rights, capital

:09:41. > :09:43.punishment, abortion rights, and there will be an awful lot of

:09:44. > :09:49.people, floating voters, who will recoil in horror at that, even on

:09:50. > :09:54.unofficial lines. I get the sense Jeremy Corbyn will be up for a

:09:55. > :09:58.second election, as quick as it comes. I'm sure he is, and if there

:09:59. > :10:01.was one company might well win it, which is why there won't be. All

:10:02. > :10:04.logic points to another election but I don't think there will be one,

:10:05. > :10:10.because I don't think any Conservative Prime Minister will

:10:11. > :10:13.feel strong and confident enough after the trauma of this. They would

:10:14. > :10:19.have to be 50 points ahead in the polls to take the risk. I think

:10:20. > :10:22.rather like between 74 and 79 we will have a frail and fragile House

:10:23. > :10:25.of Commons with a minority government for quite a long time,

:10:26. > :10:29.simply because whoever is Prime Minister will not have the

:10:30. > :10:33.confidence to call an election. So the Tories fear of a quick second

:10:34. > :10:37.election could well result in them going more leniently on Mrs May than

:10:38. > :10:45.they really want to. We have seen already, Miss Mrs May is still Prime

:10:46. > :10:50.Minister. That wouldn't have happened by now if they thought they

:10:51. > :10:55.could win a second snap election. I think they will stabilise. They are

:10:56. > :10:57.also desperate to get Brexit negotiations underway. That's

:10:58. > :11:01.another reason she is still there. She is the one who needs to pull the

:11:02. > :11:06.trigger. Most of the Tory party are aching to have the trigger pulled.

:11:07. > :11:09.When that is bold, when I have stabilised, and when Jeremy Corbyn

:11:10. > :11:15.is back the House of Commons, where remember he's not very good, I think

:11:16. > :11:20.they might your right. Lots more to talk about. Thank you for being with

:11:21. > :11:23.me in the open air, the Westminster penthouse, open to the world. I just

:11:24. > :11:26.need to find the cocktail bar. Although it is early.

:11:27. > :11:28.So, let's take a look at the election results

:11:29. > :11:32.Here's how the parties fared in the election on Thursday.

:11:33. > :11:34.And here's how they got on in the previous general

:11:35. > :11:38.As you can see, the Labour vote is up dramatically, by ten points.

:11:39. > :11:41.But the Conservative vote also rose quite significantly, by five points.

:11:42. > :11:44.The SNP and the Liberal Democrats both saw declines in their support.

:11:45. > :11:45.And Ukip's vote has almost completely collapsed,

:11:46. > :11:48.from 13% in 2015 to just 2% this time around.

:11:49. > :11:57.So the resurgence of two-party politics is one of the key

:11:58. > :12:06.The combined vote share of the two main parties is now 82%,

:12:07. > :12:11.the highest it's been since the election in 1970.

:12:12. > :12:16.And it's more if you exclude Northern Ireland.

:12:17. > :12:18.That's partly explained by the collapse of Ukip.

:12:19. > :12:22.According to one estimate, the Conservatives may have got 57%

:12:23. > :12:28.It's also thought that last year's EU referendum has helped to polarise

:12:29. > :12:32.support along the traditional Labour and Conservative lines.

:12:33. > :12:35.In polls carried out before the election,

:12:36. > :12:40.it was estimated that 50% of remain voters supported Labour and nearly

:12:41. > :12:42.two-thirds of leave voters supported the Conservatives.

:12:43. > :12:48.There's also speculation that a rise in the number of young voters may be

:12:49. > :12:51.behind the boost in Labour's support - but we don't yet have

:12:52. > :13:01.But it's notable that Labour did well in certain constituencies

:13:02. > :13:04.For example, it's thought that the large number of students

:13:05. > :13:08.in Canterbury helped Labour win the seat for the first time

:13:09. > :13:12.ever, with a 9% swing from the Conservatives.

:13:13. > :13:17.The two main parties have also seen changes in their number of seats.

:13:18. > :13:21.Labour lost six seats but gained 36, giving them a net gain of 30 seats.

:13:22. > :13:24.Most of those Labour gains were in England,

:13:25. > :13:28.where the party took 27 seats, mainly from the Conservatives.

:13:29. > :13:30.They also gained three seats in Wales and six

:13:31. > :13:38.As for the Conservatives, they lost a total of 33

:13:39. > :13:42.seats but also gained 20, giving them a net loss of 13 seats.

:13:43. > :13:48.Most of those 20 Conservative gains came in Scotland,

:13:49. > :13:54.where the party took 12 seats from the SNP.

:13:55. > :13:58.Meaning the Scottish Tories are allowing Mrs May to try to form

:13:59. > :13:59.Meaning the Scottish Tories are government this week! Who would have

:14:00. > :14:01.thought! In England,

:14:02. > :14:03.the Conservatives won Joining me now from Glasgow

:14:04. > :14:05.is the brains behind Thursday night's astoundingly accurate exit

:14:06. > :14:23.poll, the polling expert And John, the Tories saw a 5-point

:14:24. > :14:30.rise in the share of the votes to 42%, very high by recent historical

:14:31. > :14:34.standards, but still lost over a dozen seats, why? Under our first

:14:35. > :14:39.past the post electoral system, the share of the vote you get is almost

:14:40. > :14:44.irrelevant. What is crucial is how you do relative to your opponents.

:14:45. > :14:52.In particular so far as Conservative and Labour are concerned, what

:14:53. > :14:57.determines the fate is the gap between them. In the 2015 election,

:14:58. > :15:01.the Conservatives had a 7-point lead, that only got them a majority

:15:02. > :15:05.of 12, and somebody should have said to the Prime Minister before she

:15:06. > :15:09.pulled the trigger, you do realise you have to be a long way ahead of

:15:10. > :15:13.the Labour Party in order to increase your majority. The opinion

:15:14. > :15:22.polls say you are at that point now but if they fall you are in trouble.

:15:23. > :15:25.In the end of the Conservative lead is 2.5 points, which is not enough

:15:26. > :15:31.to secure a majority given that Northern Ireland is out of the

:15:32. > :15:38.frame, Scotland still has a majority of third party MPs, and there are

:15:39. > :15:46.still Liberal Democrats and greens. This now looks like a two party race

:15:47. > :15:51.once again. We have still got much more in the House of Commons than in

:15:52. > :15:57.1970 which makes a hung parliament much more likely. Meanwhile there

:15:58. > :16:02.weren't that many marginal seats. It is the relative standing of the

:16:03. > :16:07.parties that's crucial. And how do we explain the 10% rise in Labour's

:16:08. > :16:13.share of the vote? There's a lot of anecdotal evidence of a youth Surge,

:16:14. > :16:21.and I'd like to know if we can nail that down, but also the work of the

:16:22. > :16:25.swings too. Some green voters moved into Labour, some Liberal Democrats,

:16:26. > :16:31.even perhaps some Ukip voters moved into Labour, what do we know? I

:16:32. > :16:35.think we can pick up three crucial patterns. The first is a lot of

:16:36. > :16:40.people who at the beginning of the campaign said are usually vote

:16:41. > :16:44.Labour but cannot imagine doing so under Jeremy Corbyn, he so hopeless.

:16:45. > :16:47.Because of his relatively strong performance they came back into the

:16:48. > :16:57.fold so by the time we got to polling day there was many 2015

:16:58. > :17:01.voters who said they would vote Labour again. That was the crucial

:17:02. > :17:05.point, getting the faithful back on board. It is certainly clear there

:17:06. > :17:11.was a substantial swing to young voters during the campaign. Labour

:17:12. > :17:17.started off well in that group, the opinion polls had it around 65% by

:17:18. > :17:21.the time the election came. We don't know exactly the turnout amongst

:17:22. > :17:26.young people, but certainly the pattern of the results suggests the

:17:27. > :17:29.turnout was going up more in places where there were young people so

:17:30. > :17:35.probably somewhat more of them did turn out to vote. The third crucial

:17:36. > :17:40.patent is that this was an election which to some degree voters did

:17:41. > :17:51.polarise around the issue of the shape of Brexit, weather you are a

:17:52. > :17:55.Remain or Leave voter. Labour's progress during the campaign was

:17:56. > :18:00.disproportionately amongst Remain voters so although the parties were

:18:01. > :18:05.not thought to be that far apart on the shape of Brexit, they seem to be

:18:06. > :18:07.sufficiently far apart that Labour was more attractive for those less

:18:08. > :18:15.keen on the kind of Brexit Theresa was more attractive for those less

:18:16. > :18:17.May had in mind. John Curtice, thank you as always. We are now going

:18:18. > :18:29.May had in mind. John Curtice, thank Salford. Graham Brady, you think Mrs

:18:30. > :18:35.May should soldier on, why? There's no other party in a position to form

:18:36. > :18:42.a government. Clearly these aren't the circumstances that either the

:18:43. > :18:45.Prime Minister nor I nor my colleagues would want to be dealing

:18:46. > :18:49.with at the moment but this is what we are presented with and it's our

:18:50. > :18:56.duty to make the best of it and try to offer government as resilient as

:18:57. > :19:01.it can be an quite difficult times. But is she ever going to be more

:19:02. > :19:06.than a caretaker leader now? I think one of the odd things about the

:19:07. > :19:10.experience of the last 12 months is Theresa May performed well as Prime

:19:11. > :19:14.Minister and the public rather liked her as Prime Minister. I think few

:19:15. > :19:17.people would say the campaign succeeded in projecting her

:19:18. > :19:23.qualities as strongly as it could and should have done. As we return

:19:24. > :19:26.to government, albeit in difficult circumstances and dependent on

:19:27. > :19:32.support from other parties, I think we will see people once again seeing

:19:33. > :19:38.the steady, calm, thoughtful Theresa May as Prime Minister. Do you fear a

:19:39. > :19:44.leadership election might lead to a second general election, and that

:19:45. > :19:49.prospect terrifies you, doesn't it? I'm not sitting here terrified, but

:19:50. > :19:52.I think there is zero appetite amongst the public for another

:19:53. > :19:57.general election at the moment, and I don't detect any great appetite

:19:58. > :20:03.amongst my colleagues for presenting the public with a massive additional

:20:04. > :20:07.dose of uncertainty by getting involved in a rather self-indulgent

:20:08. > :20:10.Conservative Party internal election campaign. That's because they are

:20:11. > :20:19.frightened they might lose, that's why they don't want another one. I

:20:20. > :20:22.think most of us are motivated by a belief in the national interest and

:20:23. > :20:25.we are responsible people who want to try to offer that responsible,

:20:26. > :20:30.steady government, especially at this point as we know it's just a

:20:31. > :20:35.matter of days until those important negotiations on leaving the European

:20:36. > :20:38.Union begins. It's a time when we need experience and

:20:39. > :20:45.Union begins. It's a time when we it's our duty to try to offer that.

:20:46. > :20:48.Many Tories have said to me that Mrs May must never be allowed to leave

:20:49. > :20:53.your party into another general election, do you agree with that?

:20:54. > :20:58.No, these are judgments that will be made in the fullness of time by the

:20:59. > :21:02.Prime Minister and by colleagues, as is always the case with any Prime

:21:03. > :21:06.Minister and leader of the party, but at the moment we are resolutely

:21:07. > :21:08.focused on trying to make sure the country can have the responsible

:21:09. > :21:20.study government that it really needs at this point, and that should

:21:21. > :21:24.be our focus too. In what way should Mrs May change? I think there are

:21:25. > :21:28.all sorts of lessons we can pick up from the campaign and the reaction

:21:29. > :21:34.to it, even from the thing that surprised most of us, the way in

:21:35. > :21:37.which Jeremy Corbyn, in spite of all of his manifest failings, in

:21:38. > :21:43.particular his extreme political views, was able to present himself

:21:44. > :21:50.in a rather avuncular way. I didn't ask about Mr Corbyn. I'm saying I

:21:51. > :21:55.think there are some lessons there, in terms of relaxing little bit into

:21:56. > :22:02.communicating with the electorate. It is something she does very well

:22:03. > :22:06.in person, increasingly so since she became Prime Minister. That's not

:22:07. > :22:10.the experience of the campaign, the more people saw her the more they

:22:11. > :22:16.didn't like the colour of her gym. It didn't communicating the

:22:17. > :22:19.campaign, but also I think we need to see a much more open and

:22:20. > :22:26.inclusive approach within government, within Parliament as

:22:27. > :22:30.well. That's not just a kind of desirable outcome, which I think

:22:31. > :22:36.always would have been desirable and I've had this conversation with

:22:37. > :22:41.previous prime ministers as well. It's a necessity in the

:22:42. > :22:44.circumstances, trying to make a hung parliament and minority government

:22:45. > :22:51.work really requires a much more inclusive approach. You are being

:22:52. > :22:56.brought into the decision taking process on the deal being done with

:22:57. > :22:59.the DUP? I have said to the Prime Minister I think it is important she

:23:00. > :23:06.speaks to colleagues as soon as possible. I'm hoping to bring it

:23:07. > :23:13.forward to tomorrow so she can talk... But are you being involved

:23:14. > :23:17.in this more inclusive process? I am not on a negotiating team but I saw

:23:18. > :23:22.the Prime Minister very early after the election had taken place, I went

:23:23. > :23:25.to London on Friday afternoon and met with her and we had a discussion

:23:26. > :23:31.about all sorts of things that need to be addressed over the coming days

:23:32. > :23:35.and weeks. When Mrs May spoke in Downing Street after she'd gone to

:23:36. > :23:39.see the Queen, it was another robotic performance. It didn't even

:23:40. > :23:46.express any regrets for the Tories that had lost. You had to into being

:23:47. > :23:51.to get her to make a second statement, didn't you? No, she was

:23:52. > :23:56.already going to give the interview she gave. You urged her to do so.

:23:57. > :24:01.She was already scheduled to give the interview. I happen to see her

:24:02. > :24:04.in between the statement and interview, and I was keen to press

:24:05. > :24:09.home that in the past Conservative Party that has been very poor in its

:24:10. > :24:13.communications with colleagues who have lost their seats in the general

:24:14. > :24:17.election, that is something none of my colleagues likes to see so I

:24:18. > :24:21.certainly did say that I think it's important we do better this time.

:24:22. > :24:31.What bits of the manifesto will you now have to jumk for the Queen 's

:24:32. > :24:34.speech? That will be an interesting process to witness. I don't think it

:24:35. > :24:41.will just be the Queen 's speech, it will be the whole experience of

:24:42. > :24:45.government. There's no point in sailing ahead with items that were

:24:46. > :24:52.in the manifesto which we won't get through Parliament so I think we

:24:53. > :25:00.will have to work very carefully. No doubt we will slim down the Queen's

:25:01. > :25:08.speech. So tell me, which bits will you have to junk? Back to the triple

:25:09. > :25:14.lock on pensioners and no grammar schools? How about that? I would be

:25:15. > :25:16.upset if we couldn't make any progress on allowing people to have

:25:17. > :25:25.a choice of grammar schools if they wanted. Are you hoping they will

:25:26. > :25:29.drop it? If we cannot get things through Parliament, we cannot do

:25:30. > :25:34.them so I certainly would suggest that we can look for instance at a

:25:35. > :25:38.rather modest sort of pilots, opening some state grammar schools

:25:39. > :25:42.in inner urban areas, especially where education at the moment is not

:25:43. > :25:46.offering great opportunities to people of lower income backgrounds.

:25:47. > :25:52.I think that is something that could command quite broad support. I have

:25:53. > :25:56.heard from friends on the Labour ventures quietly that they would

:25:57. > :26:00.like that approach to be taken. We will certainly have to trim our

:26:01. > :26:05.policies carefully according to what we think Parliament will support.

:26:06. > :26:12.Graham Brady in Salford, thank you. Let's go to Nottingham where I am

:26:13. > :26:17.joined by Anna Soubry. In the early hours of Thursday morning you called

:26:18. > :26:21.on Theresa May to consider her position. Is that still your view?

:26:22. > :26:28.Yes, she obviously has considered her position and she is set to go in

:26:29. > :26:33.due course, but I very much agree with Graham, we don't want her to go

:26:34. > :26:38.now. We want a period of stability and she has got to reach out and

:26:39. > :26:44.form a consensus and she has got to form a consensus in particular on

:26:45. > :26:48.Brexit. She has now got to make sure she understands that the British

:26:49. > :26:53.people have rejected a hard Brexit. We are leaving the EU, I don't think

:26:54. > :26:57.there's any change there but we are not going to be leaving the EU in

:26:58. > :27:00.some irresponsible weights that will damage future generations in our

:27:01. > :27:05.country and there's a big lesson to be learned as you've already

:27:06. > :27:08.identified in your programme, about younger people and the message they

:27:09. > :27:13.have sent out in this election. I will come onto Brexit in the moment,

:27:14. > :27:21.but you have said she is set to go in due course, what does that mean?

:27:22. > :27:30.I don't know. After the summer, before the end of the year? I would

:27:31. > :27:34.have thought so. She is flawed, she's in a desperate situation. Her

:27:35. > :27:38.position is untenable and I think she knows that and she is doing the

:27:39. > :27:42.right thing, which is she's got rid of these special advisers, she's

:27:43. > :27:46.brought in Gavin Barwell, and she's listening to people from all parts

:27:47. > :27:51.of not just the party but the country. She has got to reach out

:27:52. > :27:55.more and broaden the base within her Cabinet, and she's got to include

:27:56. > :28:00.people from all parts of my party as well as all points of view across

:28:01. > :28:06.Parliament. So what impact in your view will, as you describe it, Mrs

:28:07. > :28:11.May's much more weakened position, what impact will that have on her

:28:12. > :28:19.current Brexit stance? Will she have to change it and water it down? Yes,

:28:20. > :28:23.absolutely. The country did not vote for a hard Brexit. This is based on

:28:24. > :28:28.my experience of having knocked on the literally thousands of dollars,

:28:29. > :28:37.actually since February. I have listened to a lot of people, and the

:28:38. > :28:43.idea of a hard Brexit, people didn't like that. It's one of the reasons

:28:44. > :28:46.we haven't won this election. They accept we are leaving, I accept it,

:28:47. > :28:50.but we want to get the best deal and she must not turn her back on

:28:51. > :28:55.British business as I'm afraid she has. She's got to listen to British

:28:56. > :28:59.business and Philip Hammond, she's got to listen to Greg Clark. Wise

:29:00. > :29:05.owls who know what British business once and they want that single

:29:06. > :29:09.market and they also wanted proper immigration policy that recognises

:29:10. > :29:10.we need immigrants and free movement in order for British business to

:29:11. > :29:21.continue to flourish. She has to at least listen to these

:29:22. > :29:25.things, and she hasn't in the past. Is that what Ruth Davidson, leader

:29:26. > :29:32.of the Scottish Conservatives, about the only Conservative to emerge with

:29:33. > :29:35.credit on Thursday, is that what she means? We should remain members of

:29:36. > :29:40.the single market, remain in the customs union and put the economy

:29:41. > :29:45.before immigration. Is that what you are talking about? Absolutely. And I

:29:46. > :29:49.always have. And in my literature I made it very clear I would continue

:29:50. > :29:53.to make the case for the single market and positive benefits of

:29:54. > :29:59.immigration. Although my majority was reduced, I put on 1800 more

:30:00. > :30:04.votes. It's not about me, obviously, it's about me being a Conservative,

:30:05. > :30:07.but I made my position clear and I have not faulted on that. Turning

:30:08. > :30:12.our back on the customs union in particular is the stuff of madness.

:30:13. > :30:16.The single market sees off the Nationalists and their desire for a

:30:17. > :30:20.second referendum, although the mighty Ruth Davidson is already done

:30:21. > :30:25.that with her remarkable result in Scotland, but it would also solve

:30:26. > :30:30.the problem with Ireland. Don't you risk reopening all those Tory

:30:31. > :30:36.divisions over Europe on this? I haven't. You have held these views

:30:37. > :30:41.for a long time. There are 20 of other, probably more Tories, who

:30:42. > :30:47.want what you call a hard Brexit. -- plenty of other. It's what the

:30:48. > :30:52.people want. But you don't have a majority. At this election the

:30:53. > :30:55.people have spoken and they have rejected the hard Brexit. I think we

:30:56. > :31:01.can all agree on that. That doesn't mean to say we are not leaving the

:31:02. > :31:07.EU, we will leave the EU, and I believe even people who voted to

:31:08. > :31:12.remain accept we are leaving. I found very few angry Remainers on

:31:13. > :31:16.the doorsteps. People accept the result, but they do not want a hard

:31:17. > :31:21.Brexit. That's the message coming out from this and I hope Theresa May

:31:22. > :31:27.gets that. If she does, then she has to build the con census. There's

:31:28. > :31:30.nothing to stop her working with sensible people in the Labour Party,

:31:31. > :31:35.who also accept the referendum result, no we will be leaving the

:31:36. > :31:39.EU, and know we have to get the best deal, and we can't close our minds

:31:40. > :31:44.on the single market and Customs union. What are the bits of the Tory

:31:45. > :31:48.manifesto you will now have to drop to keep your new bedfellows happy in

:31:49. > :31:54.the DUP? I don't think we have reached a deal yet with the DUP. But

:31:55. > :31:58.that is the aim. Apparently it's the aim. I will tell you now, Andrew,

:31:59. > :32:06.you probably know far more than I do. I get on well with a number of

:32:07. > :32:11.members of the DUP. I don't like a lot of their policies on abortion,

:32:12. > :32:16.gay and lesbian issues, I completely disagree with them, but if we can

:32:17. > :32:19.put those issues aside and put the focus on making a stable government

:32:20. > :32:29.and putting the national interest first, we might well make strides

:32:30. > :32:36.forward. Many people have been talking about public services and

:32:37. > :32:39.public sector pay, but we have to do recognise that at the same time we

:32:40. > :32:44.are going into choppy economic waters, and that's why I think it's

:32:45. > :32:49.so important Theresa May listens to Philip Hammond and puts him much

:32:50. > :32:53.more at the core and front of this government. It's the economy that

:32:54. > :32:57.matters more than anything else. That's one of the spectacular

:32:58. > :33:01.failings of the campaign. The issue that was hardly mentioned during the

:33:02. > :33:06.campaign. Never mentioned it. Anna Soubry, we will leave it there.

:33:07. > :33:09.After Theresa May had been to see the Queen at Buckingham Palace on

:33:10. > :33:11.Friday she made a brief statement on Friday. We can remind ourselves what

:33:12. > :33:15.she said. We will continue to work

:33:16. > :33:17.with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party

:33:18. > :33:19.in particular. Our two parties have enjoyed

:33:20. > :33:21.a strong relationship over many years, and this gives me

:33:22. > :33:23.the confidence to believe that we will be able to work

:33:24. > :33:26.together in the interests This will allow us to come

:33:27. > :33:30.together as a country and channel our energies

:33:31. > :33:35.towards a successful Brexit deal that works

:33:36. > :33:39.for everyone in this country. Securing a new partnership

:33:40. > :33:43.with the EU that guarantees our That's what people voted for last

:33:44. > :33:48.June, that's what we will deliver. I've been joined by

:33:49. > :34:02.the Conservative MP Dominic Raab - a former government minister who's

:34:03. > :34:13.been tipped for a return in Theresa We shall see. Welcome to the

:34:14. > :34:16.programme. Her two most senior advisers have fallen on their

:34:17. > :34:21.swords. Most of the Cabinet has gone to ground since the result. Could

:34:22. > :34:24.Theresa May be any more isolated? I don't think that's true. You have

:34:25. > :34:28.three Cabinet ministers doing television this morning. We are in

:34:29. > :34:31.the middle of a reshuffle, so you wouldn't expect them all to be out

:34:32. > :34:34.on the airwaves, and we also in the business of hammering out the detail

:34:35. > :34:39.on the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. Where are

:34:40. > :34:45.we on that? On the question of Chief of staff, a new appointment has been

:34:46. > :34:49.made, Gavin Barwell, I know him well, a smart policy guide and also

:34:50. > :34:54.very sensitive on the political radar and that shows we are moving

:34:55. > :34:58.forward. It was forced on her. I think they did the honourable thing.

:34:59. > :35:06.The two aids that fell on their sword? Yes. The key point is,

:35:07. > :35:09.looking forward, which we have to do, we had the outcome of the

:35:10. > :35:15.election and the people have spoken and we have to make the best of it.

:35:16. > :35:19.Gavin Barwell is an important appointment. Conservative MPs

:35:20. > :35:22.across-the-board know, respect and trust him. Nobody in the country has

:35:23. > :35:27.heard of him, but maybe that doesn't matter. How many had heard of Nick

:35:28. > :35:31.Timothy and Fiona Hill before they were appointed? They do now. Do you

:35:32. > :35:35.agree with Anna Soubry that Theresa May is no more than a caretaker

:35:36. > :35:43.Prime Minister now? I don't. Emotions are way up. But we still

:35:44. > :35:48.won the most votes and most seats. My reading from talking to MPs

:35:49. > :35:52.across-the-board is the overwhelming majority want to see Theresa May

:35:53. > :35:55.continue in office. As a matter of necessity, the people have spoken,

:35:56. > :35:59.and we have to respect what the people have decided, so we will do

:36:00. > :36:02.this supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP. There are

:36:03. > :36:05.strong areas of overlap but we don't agree on everything. The key thing

:36:06. > :36:09.is to give the country certainty and direction moving forward. That's the

:36:10. > :36:13.only viable option and people are rallying behind that. Not all.

:36:14. > :36:21.George Osborne said this morning on the BBC that Mrs May was a dead

:36:22. > :36:26.woman walking. He has made the transition from Conservative MP to

:36:27. > :36:31.mischievous journalist with ease. Most MPs when they listen to that

:36:32. > :36:33.will think it's disloyal, unprofessional and frankly pretty

:36:34. > :36:37.self-indulgent. In reality I think it will shore up support among a lot

:36:38. > :36:44.of MPs for Theresa May. What went wrong? I'm not going to candy coat,

:36:45. > :36:50.sugar-coat the result here. We did far worse than expected and we need

:36:51. > :36:56.to figure out the lessons to learn. I know it went wrong, but why? There

:36:57. > :36:59.isn't anyone thing. You have to take time to learn the lessons. We need

:37:00. > :37:03.to show some humility about the result. Nick Timothy has written a

:37:04. > :37:07.column that touches on some of the issues from his perspective. To be

:37:08. > :37:11.honest with you, I'm focused now, I missed all the drama and

:37:12. > :37:15.disappointment of not getting the result we wanted, focus on the

:37:16. > :37:18.facts. We got 56 more seats than the Labour Party and we are the only

:37:19. > :37:22.ones who can put together a legitimate parliament that can also

:37:23. > :37:26.be affected, passing a judgment and pass legislation, however tricky it

:37:27. > :37:31.may be. That remains to be seen, you might not be able to do that. We are

:37:32. > :37:34.the only ones, with the DUP, who could form a viable and effective

:37:35. > :37:41.government that would reflect legitimately the outcome of the

:37:42. > :37:43.election and we will focus 100% on that. Let's do that. Mrs May

:37:44. > :37:47.promised strength and stability. We now have a hung parliament and she

:37:48. > :37:51.is dependent on the DUP for the slimmest of majorities. There is

:37:52. > :37:57.nothing strong and stable about that. I have said to you, I will not

:37:58. > :38:01.tell you this result is the one we wanted. We are disappointed. It's

:38:02. > :38:06.not strong and stable. It can still be effective. It's also the only

:38:07. > :38:09.outcome that can respect and be legitimate of the outcome of the

:38:10. > :38:13.election. At the end of the day, we had campaigning, we can differ on

:38:14. > :38:16.the opinions, but the facts and parliamentary arithmetic is there.

:38:17. > :38:19.The only way we can have an effective government of any time

:38:20. > :38:24.that Del Paso budget is the Conservatives with the support of

:38:25. > :38:28.the DUP. To do that you'll have to make compromises you would not have

:38:29. > :38:31.to do make if you had won a substantial majority. What part of

:38:32. > :38:36.the manifesto will have to go to get a budget and a confidence motion

:38:37. > :38:40.through? 48 hours after the election I can't answer that definitively.

:38:41. > :38:44.What we do have to do, every MP, whatever part of the country they

:38:45. > :38:49.were elected, has to deliver as best can be manifesto commitments. At the

:38:50. > :38:52.same time, that's what the country expects. At the same time we had

:38:53. > :38:56.forced on us the need to be flexible. The people didn't vote for

:38:57. > :39:00.your manifesto in the end. Something has to go. The triple lock for

:39:01. > :39:04.pensioners that you were going to change, the DUP is in favour of the

:39:05. > :39:10.triple lock. Does that bit of the manifesto go? You can ask me any

:39:11. > :39:15.aspect of the manifesto, we'll know more answers the detail next week.

:39:16. > :39:20.You were on our programmes more than any Cabinet minister. You will be

:39:21. > :39:26.drafted back in. You should know. I don't bet too much money on the

:39:27. > :39:29.tittle tattle in the media. We have the outline of the supply and

:39:30. > :39:33.confidence arrangement with the DUP. We are hammering out the details.

:39:34. > :39:39.Next week we will publish the details. What about social care? You

:39:40. > :39:43.asking me about different points in a manifesto but you know I can't

:39:44. > :39:47.answer that question until... I want to deliver as much of the manifesto

:39:48. > :39:52.as possible. You don't have a mandate to do that. That's because

:39:53. > :39:59.we've got... The Queen's speech is only a week away, a week tomorrow.

:40:00. > :40:03.You are trying to work out what parts, Labour lost, but you didn't

:40:04. > :40:07.win, and I'm trying to work out how you just said we will have to

:40:08. > :40:11.comprise and make changes. It's legitimate to ask which parts... I'm

:40:12. > :40:14.explaining I don't have the answers on the detail because until we have

:40:15. > :40:19.formed the supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP, we will

:40:20. > :40:22.not have those details. My starting point is that we deliver as much of

:40:23. > :40:25.the manifesto as we conceivably can. That's what the country expects

:40:26. > :40:29.because that's what they are elected us to do. They have given us their

:40:30. > :40:33.verdict, we need to respect the outcome of the election and we will

:40:34. > :40:37.not do it in the same way will as if we had a stonking majority,

:40:38. > :40:42.obviously. The result has given a kind of new spring in the step of

:40:43. > :40:48.politicians who wanted to remain in the European Union. What do you

:40:49. > :40:51.make, and we heard Anna Soubry, and many others have said it as well,

:40:52. > :40:57.that you need to reconsider your Brexit stands, and in their language

:40:58. > :41:01.community soften your Brexit stands. Whether you are a Scottish, Welsh or

:41:02. > :41:04.English MP, elected to Parliament behind me on the basis of a

:41:05. > :41:10.manifesto that sets out in great detail, a 75 page white Paper, the

:41:11. > :41:14.approach to Brexit. All this talk of hard Brexit, our ambition is to get

:41:15. > :41:19.the best possible deal we can with our EU partners. Do you change your

:41:20. > :41:23.stands because you didn't get a majority for your Brexit position.

:41:24. > :41:27.Do you follow the advice of Ruth Davidson, who talked of an open

:41:28. > :41:32.Brexit, framing a new Brexit strategy? Hard and soft Brexit, I

:41:33. > :41:38.don't know exactly what Ruth means by that. But she did a great job in

:41:39. > :41:42.Scotland. But every MP was elected on our manifesto. We will deliver

:41:43. > :41:46.the plans of that manifesto as best we can, including and especially on

:41:47. > :41:52.Brexit. Just a point of fact, obviously be Conservative number of

:41:53. > :41:57.votes went up, Labour effectively... The vote share went up, but we lost

:41:58. > :42:01.seats, but we are 56 seats ahead of the Labour Party. The Labour Party

:42:02. > :42:05.effectively endorsed the leave the EU strategy we set out and they

:42:06. > :42:12.didn't offer a alternative. So no change on the Brexit strategy? And

:42:13. > :42:16.the anti-Brexit parties, the SNP and Lib Dem, both suffered a fall in

:42:17. > :42:21.their vote share. The country has said they want us to make a success

:42:22. > :42:26.of Brexit. So no change? The plans in the White Paper set out are the

:42:27. > :42:30.right ones and the voters expect us to deliver on the manifesto we ran

:42:31. > :42:35.on, whether you are a Scottish, English or Welsh MP. I can hear your

:42:36. > :42:39.helicopter arriving to whisk you off to the wry ministerial meeting. Let

:42:40. > :42:44.us know what job you get. Viewers in Scotland will leave us for Sunday

:42:45. > :42:47.Politics Scotland now. Jeremy Corbyn...

:42:48. > :42:49.Jeremy Corbyn may have lost the election,

:42:50. > :42:51.but he's clearly cock-a-hoop with the big increase in Labour's

:42:52. > :42:54.share of the vote and the nmber of Labour

:42:55. > :42:57.On Friday he called on Theresa May to resign,

:42:58. > :43:00.and said he was ready to govern the country as a minority

:43:01. > :43:03.Speaking this morning, the Labour leader said he thought there could

:43:04. > :43:08.Speaking this morning, the Labour be another election in the near

:43:09. > :43:10.future. I think it's quite possible that there will be an election later

:43:11. > :43:13.future. I think it's quite possible this year or early next year. And

:43:14. > :43:16.that might be a good thing, because we cannot go on with a period of

:43:17. > :43:19.great instability. We have a we cannot go on with a period of

:43:20. > :43:22.programme, we have the support, and we cannot go on with a period of

:43:23. > :43:25.we are ready to fight another election campaign as soon as may be

:43:26. > :43:28.we are ready to fight another because you want to be able to serve

:43:29. > :43:31.the people of this country on the agenda we put forward, which is

:43:32. > :43:38.transformative, and has gained amazing levels of support. People

:43:39. > :43:42.say, hang on, why are my children worse off than we are, why are my

:43:43. > :43:46.grandchildren? This election wasn't just about Brexit, there was

:43:47. > :43:47.something different about it. It was challenging the economic consensus

:43:48. > :43:51.that has impoverished Sony people. The Labour

:43:52. > :43:53.leader speaking earlier this morning.

:43:54. > :43:59.We've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.

:44:00. > :44:06.A lot of Labour people have been behaving as if you have won this

:44:07. > :44:11.election, can I point out you have lost three in a row?

:44:12. > :44:21.Yes, but undoubtedly momentum is with us, and momentum is important

:44:22. > :44:25.in politics. It looks like they got the young vote out and that's why

:44:26. > :44:31.you did better-than-expected. The young vote certainly came out for

:44:32. > :44:35.Labour. I found on my part of the world Tory voters switching to

:44:36. > :44:43.Labour over things like the dementia tax, but I also think Ukip

:44:44. > :44:49.supporters voted heavily for Labour because we wanted to invest heavily

:44:50. > :44:53.in the NHS and schools, and people are fed up of cuts to public

:44:54. > :45:01.services and the austerity agenda. So it was a good manifesto? You were

:45:02. > :45:06.happy with it? Yes, I was part of putting it together. You would be

:45:07. > :45:10.happy to fight another election based on that manifesto? Yes, I put

:45:11. > :45:15.together the health section of that manifesto, which gives nurses and

:45:16. > :45:20.midwives of the pay rise, I'm very happy with that manifesto. And yet,

:45:21. > :45:25.you have this manifesto you were happy with, you will rub against a

:45:26. > :45:28.Prime Minister who wanted to fight a personality led presidential

:45:29. > :45:32.campaign, it then turned out the British people didn't think she had

:45:33. > :45:38.much personality and wasn't presidential in nature. You had

:45:39. > :45:45.momentum and you ended up winning no more seats than Gordon Brown in the

:45:46. > :45:49.collection of 2010. Given where we were seven weeks ago, I looked at

:45:50. > :45:55.the opinion polls and thought crikey, this could not be a good

:45:56. > :45:58.result for Labour potentially. Theresa May thought she would have a

:45:59. > :46:04.landslide victory and that's why she put her party first in going for

:46:05. > :46:07.this snap election, and undoubtedly this campaign changed things. I

:46:08. > :46:12.think the key moment was the manifesto week when the Labour Party

:46:13. > :46:17.but forward proposed policies to the country which excited many people,

:46:18. > :46:20.and the Tory party came forward with the dementia tax, getting rid of the

:46:21. > :46:27.winter fuel payment, I think that was a turning point in the election.

:46:28. > :46:31.What does Mr Corbyn do now? When I spoke to Ken Livingstone on Friday

:46:32. > :46:36.he said we did so well on a socialist manifesto, we need more of

:46:37. > :46:42.this. We need more socialism and we will do even better. Is that the

:46:43. > :46:46.lesson Jeremy Corbyn will take or try to reach out more to the centre

:46:47. > :46:51.of his party, now his position is unassailable does he try to reach

:46:52. > :46:55.out beyond his own group? I think there is broad unity and the whole

:46:56. > :46:59.party will come together to take on the Conservatives, who now have a

:47:00. > :47:09.huge problem in Parliament. They can only offer a weak and unstable

:47:10. > :47:12.government. She's trying to cobble together this supply and confidence

:47:13. > :47:16.agreement with the DUP which means all of the decisions in Parliament

:47:17. > :47:26.will be taken on a case-by-case basis. It isn't just the votes on

:47:27. > :47:29.the floor of the House, all of is the statutory instruments will rely

:47:30. > :47:34.on the support of the DUP. She will not be able to guarantee she can get

:47:35. > :47:38.her programme through. We are likely to sue the Government collapse or

:47:39. > :47:41.have a zombie Parliament where we are not debating and voting on

:47:42. > :47:45.legislation because she knows she cannot get it through. If that's the

:47:46. > :47:50.case, even if she puts together a deal with the DUP and it gets off

:47:51. > :47:54.the ground but runs into the kind of difficulties you quite rightly say

:47:55. > :48:00.are possible, and she cannot continue, should Mr Corbyn try to

:48:01. > :48:03.form a minority government? I think so, I think we should try to put our

:48:04. > :48:11.programme of getting rid of tuition fees, investing in the NHS, and ask

:48:12. > :48:14.the other parties to support us. I'm anticipating your next question

:48:15. > :48:18.which is what happens if that doesn't work, well then we are

:48:19. > :48:21.probably heading to another general election at some point. I cannot

:48:22. > :48:25.seem Theresa May surviving as the Prime Minister for the rest of this

:48:26. > :48:31.Parliament for another five days to be frank but who knows. It's likely

:48:32. > :48:35.that you think Mrs May cannot make this work, she can start to make it

:48:36. > :48:39.work but as time goes on it could become more difficult, that Labour

:48:40. > :48:42.could try to form a minority government but given that the

:48:43. > :48:50.Parliamentary arithmetic is not great for her, it is much worse for

:48:51. > :48:59.you, that it may not work? Yes, but you have a responsibility to try and

:49:00. > :49:02.to challenge the other parties to support us honour policies of

:49:03. > :49:08.investing in the NHS, investing in childcare, so that will be a

:49:09. > :49:12.challenge for us but if the Conservatives cannot form a

:49:13. > :49:16.government we would have to take up that responsibility. John McDonnell,

:49:17. > :49:20.the Shadow Chancellor, said to me during the campaign there would be

:49:21. > :49:35.no deals. You don't have to have deals. As I said to him, we have all

:49:36. > :49:39.seen Borgen! They require deals, you have got to give them something. But

:49:40. > :49:47.when you have an minority government, challenging MPs on the

:49:48. > :49:51.other side to support new... My voters in Leicester South were not

:49:52. > :49:54.invited to make a judgment on the DUP manifesto and yet we could have

:49:55. > :49:59.a Conservative government propped up by the time being by the DUP, even

:50:00. > :50:08.though that will have a huge impact on the peace process. I think it is

:50:09. > :50:11.a different arrangement. A minority Labour government wouldn't

:50:12. > :50:17.necessarily rule out getting support from the DUP, they might need it? If

:50:18. > :50:22.they vote for us, everyone will see it because it will be transparent in

:50:23. > :50:27.the way they vote. It does seem we are in for a period of instability

:50:28. > :50:30.in British politics, that is the outcome of this election, and

:50:31. > :50:35.usually when that happens it leads to a second election quite quickly.

:50:36. > :50:39.It could lead to that, and it is ironic given the Tories promised a

:50:40. > :50:44.strong and stable government, and the chaos she warned of is actually

:50:45. > :50:49.chaos in the Tory party, but look at the number of seats in play at the

:50:50. > :50:52.next election now. It will be a Labour Tory stand-off and as a whole

:50:53. > :50:58.range of seats now with Tory majorities of a few hundred which

:50:59. > :51:02.Labour is targeting. Seats which based on the 2015 result we didn't

:51:03. > :51:07.think we could win. And Scotland is in play for Labour again, and it is

:51:08. > :51:12.Scottish MPs sustaining Theresa May in Government at the moment. The

:51:13. > :51:18.message in Scotland will be, if you want a Labour government, both

:51:19. > :51:19.Labour. I bet you never thought you would say that, but let's leave it

:51:20. > :51:30.there. at the beginning of what's likely

:51:31. > :51:34.to be another remarkable And only one thing is certain -

:51:35. > :51:39.the shenanigans over last Thursday's You may still be getting your head

:51:40. > :51:46.around the news about a hung parliament and Theresa May's planned

:51:47. > :51:49.deal with the DUP, We'll find out in a moment,

:51:50. > :51:52.but first let's remind Labour cemented their position

:51:53. > :51:56.as the largest party in Wales gaining 3 seats to give them a total

:51:57. > :51:59.of 28 out of 40. They won those three seats from

:52:00. > :52:05.the Conservatives who still have 8. Plaid Cymru gained Ceredigion

:52:06. > :52:08.to give them 4, while for the first time in more than 150 years,

:52:09. > :52:11.Wales will not be sending a single So much for the seats, but what

:52:12. > :52:20.about the share of the vote? Labour's share was up 12%

:52:21. > :52:23.on two years ago to 48.9%. The Conservatives

:52:24. > :52:24.are second on 33.6. Plaid Cymru moved up into third

:52:25. > :52:27.place though their share was down The LibDems are in fourth,

:52:28. > :52:30.while Ukip's vote collapsed, Here to tell us what they plan to do

:52:31. > :52:45.next are the Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies,

:52:46. > :52:48.Welsh Labour's campaign manager and MP for Caerphilly, Wayne David,

:52:49. > :52:51.the former Libdem MP Roger Williams and from Bangor, Plaid Cymru's

:52:52. > :53:07.leader at Westminster, Andrew RT Davis, we see that your

:53:08. > :53:13.share of the vote is up but you lost three MPs. What's your take on what

:53:14. > :53:16.happened? Immensely sorry for the three MPs who lost the ability to go

:53:17. > :53:22.back and represent those constituencies. Take the Gower, we

:53:23. > :53:28.increased our boat by 7% of 4000 votes, but it is a fact for everyone

:53:29. > :53:31.for we were putting on Labour were putting two or three and that's

:53:32. > :53:35.because of the implosion of the Nationalists and the Lib Dems. I

:53:36. > :53:41.want you able to capitalise on that in the way that Labour was? We did

:53:42. > :53:48.to a pond, you just said, we had a 34% share of the overall vote which

:53:49. > :53:52.in 2015, we had 29%, we returned 11 MPs but it's a fact the other

:53:53. > :53:55.parties in this race collapsed and ultimately Labour were the main

:53:56. > :54:00.beneficiaries. On a normal sequence of events if I was sitting here with

:54:01. > :54:05.a 34% sure of the vote in Welsh terms that would be seen as

:54:06. > :54:09.historically important, in Scotland, take the point we are celebrating 30

:54:10. > :54:17.victories, on 30% of the boat, we got 13 MPs come on 30 -- 34% we got

:54:18. > :54:20.eight. What happens next? The has to be a certain amount of

:54:21. > :54:23.responsibility taking, Theresa May didn't need to call the selection

:54:24. > :54:28.and what she has left you with is a mess so what needs to happen? The

:54:29. > :54:32.landscape in London is known and the Prime Minister has gone to the

:54:33. > :54:36.Queen, sought the permission to form a government and that's perfectly

:54:37. > :54:40.legitimate. While it's there to point out... Should she remain as

:54:41. > :54:43.Prime Minister... There to point out that Labour performed better than it

:54:44. > :54:49.not forget Labour are at the point... And we come to that... We

:54:50. > :54:53.aren't the biggest party by about 60 seats, therefore it's incumbent on

:54:54. > :54:57.us to try and form a government to take the country forward. That's

:54:58. > :55:02.what we are doing. Should Theresa May remain as Prime Minister weather

:55:03. > :55:06.amend of this Parliament? She has my support in making sure... For five

:55:07. > :55:10.years? She has my support Mickey Jones she continues his

:55:11. > :55:13.negotiations, given that we are the biggest party in Westminster and

:55:14. > :55:18.it's incumbent on us to form a government. Ultimately, if we do

:55:19. > :55:22.form that government we will offer the solution is that the country

:55:23. > :55:26.needs. Wayne Davis, what do you think should happen? We hear from

:55:27. > :55:32.Jeremy Corbyn this morning most welcoming the idea of an October

:55:33. > :55:36.election, would you support that? I think we are in an extremely

:55:37. > :55:41.difficult position. Theresa May to quote George Osborne this morning is

:55:42. > :55:45.like a dead person walking. And we are going to see an attempt to

:55:46. > :55:48.cobble together some sort of an agreement with the arch

:55:49. > :55:52.reactionaries of British politics, the DUP. I think our job will be to

:55:53. > :55:57.point out the incredible weaknesses that now exist in the government and

:55:58. > :55:59.if there's another election, I would say bring it on and let's get behind

:56:00. > :56:05.Jeremy Corbyn and went that election. It was a successful

:56:06. > :56:08.evening for Labour on two counts, increasing the number of MPs and the

:56:09. > :56:15.largest share of the vote. What's mainly responsible for that? When

:56:16. > :56:19.you saw higher turnout surely that's because of the Jeremy Corbyn factor

:56:20. > :56:23.rather than Carwyn Jones. As your figures have indicated the swing in

:56:24. > :56:27.Wales to Labour was the great -- was greater than the swing in England

:56:28. > :56:34.and they successfully managed to match Jeremy Corbyn's undoubted

:56:35. > :56:38.appeal with Carwyn Jones appeal ahead of Welsh Labour and I think

:56:39. > :56:44.that's a remarkably effective bond which will continue. I those days

:56:45. > :56:48.when we heard MPs like you and others that are sizing Jeremy Corbyn

:56:49. > :56:53.and has policies, his take on pretty much every element of his

:56:54. > :56:56.leadership, I those over? I think we saw a different Jeremy Corbyn to be

:56:57. > :56:59.perfectly honest, it was quite remarkable how he managed to enthuse

:57:00. > :57:03.people and galvanise the support of the country particularly the support

:57:04. > :57:07.of young people and I think because of that he has commanded enormous

:57:08. > :57:10.respect from Labour MPs and the people of this country. Roger, how

:57:11. > :57:14.disappointing is that that for the first time since 1859 won't be

:57:15. > :57:19.liberal voice, if you like, from Wales. We are very disappointed and

:57:20. > :57:26.disappointed that Mark Williams lost Ceredigion. He is Mr Ceredigion to

:57:27. > :57:31.so many people and there are lots of people in the area so disappointed

:57:32. > :57:38.but certainly the traditional Plaid Cymru versus liberal contest was

:57:39. > :57:44.overwhelmed by the Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn issue and that

:57:45. > :57:47.confuse things and allowed... Was drawn for Tim Farron to say

:57:48. > :57:52.absolutely no deal with after the election because it seemed the Lib

:57:53. > :57:55.Dems were pointless. I think he was absolutely right, one of the

:57:56. > :57:58.fighters coming out of the election is that people of the United Kingdom

:57:59. > :58:05.aren't particularly enthused about either Mr macro or Jeremy Corbyn

:58:06. > :58:08.leading this country. And to prop up or support either of those wouldn't

:58:09. > :58:12.be a proper role for the Liberal Democrats but just to say, in the

:58:13. > :58:15.future, yes, we will be willing to work with people if it's in the

:58:16. > :58:24.national interest but at the moment, it isn't. Hannah Williams, would it

:58:25. > :58:27.be fair to say that Plaid Cymru's victory in Ceredigion, in much the

:58:28. > :58:32.same way as last year and Leanne Wood, just one excellent result

:58:33. > :58:45.masks what was otherwise if early dire set of results for Plaid Cymru?

:58:46. > :58:47.It was a UK election. The Labour Party couldn't bring themselves to

:58:48. > :58:54.mention Jeremy Corbyn throughout the campaign. We stayed the same to some

:58:55. > :58:58.extent, my vote in our fun did not change, but what we did see was the

:58:59. > :59:05.collapse of the right-wing British Ukip party and there are votes in

:59:06. > :59:09.this area and elsewhere went to Labour or the Tories, that explains

:59:10. > :59:12.a great deal of what happened. You were within 92 votes of losing your

:59:13. > :59:16.constituency, has it been a point that maybe too much of your party's

:59:17. > :59:21.focus was elsewhere rather than trying to concentrate on where you

:59:22. > :59:25.needed to defend your seats are you had a better chance of gaining

:59:26. > :59:31.seats? We worked very hard in this constituency and in Ceredigion, we

:59:32. > :59:33.also worked hard in the other target constituencies that we had, that is

:59:34. > :59:38.what the people there would expect us to do. In this constituency, as I

:59:39. > :59:43.said, are both remained the same, I think there was 200 difference but

:59:44. > :59:46.Ukip did not stand, two and a half thousand votes for going and they

:59:47. > :59:53.went instead of to the right-wing Conservative Party, they went to the

:59:54. > :59:58.Labour Party. It would be extremely surprising how they voted for me as

:59:59. > :00:07.a left-wing de centralist Ceredigion MP. As that left-wing centralist...

:00:08. > :00:15.I am trying... De centralist... We have heard me Corbyn saying he's

:00:16. > :00:17.going to reach out to the people now as the Plaid Cymru leader in

:00:18. > :00:22.Westminster will you be seeking to in any way you can help me Corbyn's

:00:23. > :00:26.Labour Party to help keep the Conservatives DUP out? We would be

:00:27. > :00:31.very happy to listen to any Progressive party, whichever part of

:00:32. > :00:37.the Labour Party that is. Of course, the Welsh Labour Party have made

:00:38. > :00:41.great play over the distinction from the Labour Party in London. So we'd

:00:42. > :00:47.be very happy to talk to progress people in other parties and

:00:48. > :00:50.certainly... Is that a yes? I am telling you we will listen to what

:00:51. > :00:54.they have to say because we are not interested in a coalition of any

:00:55. > :00:58.sort, I don't think they are either and I should say the Conservative

:00:59. > :01:04.AUP coalition or arrangement fills me with complete dismay. They are an

:01:05. > :01:09.appalling party. On that point, Andrew Arty Davis, how comfortable

:01:10. > :01:13.you feel that what you are going to have now at best, I guess, is a

:01:14. > :01:20.conservative administration, a government, propped up essentially

:01:21. > :01:23.by the DUP. It is for colleagues in London to look at the numbers and

:01:24. > :01:28.see how they can work through this. Ultimately it was talked about this

:01:29. > :01:32.morning that in 2008, for example, Gordon Brown worked with the DUP to

:01:33. > :01:35.bring forward security legislation. But not to rely on them in

:01:36. > :01:39.government for five years? It's about looking at the numbers, that's

:01:40. > :01:43.what democracy is in deciding whether you have the numbers to

:01:44. > :01:45.sustain a majority in the House of Commons and other before colleagues

:01:46. > :01:48.to explore this weekend in the negotiations. What will come of

:01:49. > :01:54.that, obviously, we will learn... What you know there are views on

:01:55. > :01:58.things like gay rights, abortion, allsorts of, I guess, for many

:01:59. > :02:02.people, unpalatable views that they hold. Would that be something you'd

:02:03. > :02:06.be happy with bringing that element and relying on that element? Many of

:02:07. > :02:10.the view is that they hold our polar opposite to the views that I hold, I

:02:11. > :02:13.readily acknowledge that what for agreement can be found, we are not

:02:14. > :02:17.looking at a coalition, we are looking at as I understand it, a

:02:18. > :02:20.confidence and supply arrangement on particular issues, the budget, for

:02:21. > :02:23.example, and other matters that might need to be agreed with to get

:02:24. > :02:27.the votes for the House of Commons. It is not taking a formal coalition

:02:28. > :02:31.and discussing those particular issues, it's more about the big

:02:32. > :02:36.political questions of the David obviously need to command a majority

:02:37. > :02:38.in the House and that is what colleagues will discuss as we go

:02:39. > :02:43.forward. I guess one of the most important of those would be fought

:02:44. > :02:45.would have been EU money and we soared in the Conservative

:02:46. > :02:49.manifesto, there's going to beat this part of money for the poor

:02:50. > :02:52.areas of the UK. Scotland and Ruth Davidson with say we have more

:02:53. > :02:57.Scottish MPs from the Conservatives now, but there are boys listen to,

:02:58. > :03:00.the DUP will certainly make their boys listen to, the danger with

:03:01. > :03:04.Wales is that it will be ignored in sharing out that extra money that we

:03:05. > :03:08.could be expecting from the EU? I disagree with that, the successes

:03:09. > :03:10.that we've had a sludge Conservatives in government, the

:03:11. > :03:16.funding floor put in place recently... But the dynamic is

:03:17. > :03:20.different of government? We have a 12 Conservative MPs up there as well

:03:21. > :03:24.which will be negotiating hard and working hard with colleagues in

:03:25. > :03:27.Westminster to make sure we have a government that can deliver on the

:03:28. > :03:32.priorities the country needs to go forward. It is a fact, Labour Party

:03:33. > :03:37.at the moment after they were in 2010... You don't have any cards to

:03:38. > :03:40.play. We have more MPs and it's incumbent on us as the largest party

:03:41. > :03:46.with an Westminster to form a government and that's what's

:03:47. > :03:49.happening over this weekend. Can I make the point about the situation

:03:50. > :03:53.which is unfolding in my concern is threefold. I'm concerned that the

:03:54. > :03:56.Conservatives may be adopting reactionary social policies which

:03:57. > :04:00.the party has mentioned, I'm concerned about funding because the

:04:01. > :04:05.street unionist will demand a pound of flesh and my concern is that it

:04:06. > :04:11.might be at the expense of Wales but third, I'm also concerned about the

:04:12. > :04:14.peace settlement in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday agreement,

:04:15. > :04:18.absolutely fundamental to that is the Irish government and the British

:04:19. > :04:22.Government being honest brokers and if the DUP are not effectively part

:04:23. > :04:27.of the British Government, that puts a big question over the whole peace

:04:28. > :04:30.process in Northern Ireland, that's found the worrying for assault.

:04:31. > :04:36.Should it be a situation, we seem to remit and today talking about the

:04:37. > :04:40.Queen's Speech, the programme of government there will essentially be

:04:41. > :04:44.a different version, an alternative from Labour. To what extent is it

:04:45. > :04:48.incumbent on Jeremy Corbyn to reach out to people like the Lib Dems and

:04:49. > :04:55.Plaid Cymru so they can get the broadest possible level of support?

:04:56. > :05:00.-- worrying for us all. The emphasis will be on the other parties at the

:05:01. > :05:04.same time to call operator and be constructive but I think the crucial

:05:05. > :05:06.thing is the leadership of the country and Theresa May

:05:07. > :05:10.unfortunately is not in a position to provide effective and strong

:05:11. > :05:13.leadership. I fear that will become increasingly apparent in the next

:05:14. > :05:17.weeks and months if she survives that long and adventure in the

:05:18. > :05:21.Corbyn, the onus is on him and I think you will rise to the occasion,

:05:22. > :05:25.to become the Prime Minister in waiting. Roger Williams, when we

:05:26. > :05:30.talk about progressive parties coming together how much of an

:05:31. > :05:35.emphasis do you think needs to be on the 12, 13 Lib Dem MPs to try and

:05:36. > :05:41.work with Labour and other parties? We must make an assessment really of

:05:42. > :05:44.the proposals put forward by the liberal party. During the election

:05:45. > :05:49.campaign we were very concerned about the rash, we think, promises

:05:50. > :05:55.that were made in terms of finance and how they would be put in place

:05:56. > :06:00.in... Is that a no? No, I think we shall see the Labour Party modifying

:06:01. > :06:06.its approach, being more realistic is the time goes on. And during that

:06:07. > :06:08.time no coalition, no agreement but seeing whether we can work with

:06:09. > :06:15.those progressive parties in some sort of an alliance? Andrew Art tee

:06:16. > :06:19.Davis, one of the issues during the campaign in Wales was a lack of

:06:20. > :06:24.clear leadership, we saw in TV debates it was always Carwyn Jones,

:06:25. > :06:28.with the Tories it was sometimes you, once it was you, once it was

:06:29. > :06:32.Alan Kearns and once it was Darren Millar because you couldn't come to

:06:33. > :06:36.an agreement so what went wrong and who has to take responsible at the?

:06:37. > :06:40.I agree with you entirely, we have a strong, distinct Welsh Conservative

:06:41. > :06:46.round but we need to be able to make a political decisions here in Wales

:06:47. > :06:50.and have... So you are... Let me get to the first point, we have a

:06:51. > :06:54.designated leader here in Wales similar to what Labour formalised in

:06:55. > :06:59.March and I readily acknowledge that, the moment what happens is in

:07:00. > :07:02.default aspects I lead on devolution, on secondary estate

:07:03. > :07:06.aspects such as Westminster, the Secretary of State Leeds and the

:07:07. > :07:09.chairman of the voluntary party obviously leads on voluntary

:07:10. > :07:14.party... So who should lead? That's a discussion for the party but I

:07:15. > :07:19.think Scotland has a very good model which has shown to be successful...

:07:20. > :07:24.Sorry to interrupt but Ruth Davidson is the leader in Scotland, there is

:07:25. > :07:29.no discussion on that so if that's a good model then it should be due as

:07:30. > :07:34.leader? These are discussions to be had as we go forward, we are only 72

:07:35. > :07:40.hours after the close of poll but there is a deficiency in the ability

:07:41. > :07:43.to make a decision is from a party prospective and I do acknowledge

:07:44. > :07:48.that, there's no point denying it. What we are looking at is making

:07:49. > :07:52.sure we reflect on the solid 34% of the vote we achieved on Thursday

:07:53. > :07:56.night, we also reflect and support sadly colleagues who did not make it

:07:57. > :07:59.back to Westminster and candidates and activists who work tirelessly

:08:00. > :08:03.but let's not forget, there is a huge job offer to be done as we go

:08:04. > :08:10.forward as a country, Conservative Party is the largest party in

:08:11. > :08:14.Westminster and it's incumbent we make an effort to form a government.

:08:15. > :08:22.Why would you go on holiday during the course of a campaign? I was

:08:23. > :08:28.celebrating my wedding anniversary. One moment, Hannah Williams, we have

:08:29. > :08:38.heard Leanne Wood saying there needs to be a period of reflection, saying

:08:39. > :08:44.that the needs to be and what needs to change for Plaid Cymru, you want

:08:45. > :08:48.Ceredigion but it's been, last year, you are stagnating in terms of your

:08:49. > :08:57.ability to reach out to beyond your heart and, perhaps? Any reasonable

:08:58. > :09:00.and live a little party will reassess its course continually and

:09:01. > :09:06.we of course will do that. Does anything need to change? Obviously

:09:07. > :09:08.we would like to win and what ever we need to do to change within the

:09:09. > :09:15.principles that we have set out before the selection, we will

:09:16. > :09:19.proceed. Like what, for work the witnesses? It's very clear what we

:09:20. > :09:22.need to succeed and that is the line that we will be giving to any

:09:23. > :09:27.progressive party that wants to talk to us, which is defending the

:09:28. > :09:32.200,000 or so jobs in Wales which depend on European Union, the moment

:09:33. > :09:39.defending farming and also ensuring our universities get academics and

:09:40. > :09:43.staff from European universities coming over here, students coming

:09:44. > :09:46.over, our agenda is Jimmy clear and we have been consistently sold

:09:47. > :09:51.throughout this election whilst other parties, if I may say so, have

:09:52. > :09:55.bent with the wind, either doing a U-turn on something like social care

:09:56. > :09:59.or suddenly finding a profound love for Jeremy Corbyn when they couldn't

:10:00. > :10:07.even come to mention him previously. On that point the Brexit, the tax

:10:08. > :10:11.that Theresa May surely has to take, she surely has to change, the

:10:12. > :10:15.situation that she had, she had a majority, it was always going to be

:10:16. > :10:19.difficult, she wanted to strengthen her hand, her hand is infinitely

:10:20. > :10:24.weaker, she will have to change your view and how she goes about

:10:25. > :10:28.negotiations? Those conversations that are being undertaken as the

:10:29. > :10:31.supply and confidence arrangement is discussed going forward to see

:10:32. > :10:34.whether the government can get its business through the House of

:10:35. > :10:37.Commons but it is a fact we know the stopwatch has started because

:10:38. > :10:42.Article 50 was triggered at the end of March. Let's not forget that last

:10:43. > :10:44.June the referendum here in Wales here given instruction to the

:10:45. > :10:48.government that we needed to rebalance this relationship with

:10:49. > :10:52.Europe, Wales voted out on these negotiations are about finding an

:10:53. > :10:57.accommodation, agreement, arrangement that reflects that

:10:58. > :11:01.referendum result. Thank you so much all of you for coming in. I'm sure

:11:02. > :11:04.we have further discussions about many things over the next few weeks.

:11:05. > :11:06.A lot has been said since Thursday about turnout, well turnout

:11:07. > :11:09.in Wales and across the UK is at its highest since 1997.

:11:10. > :11:12.Some say much of that is down to a surge in mainly

:11:13. > :11:15.Here in Wales, Merthyr saw the highest percentage increase

:11:16. > :11:18.in turnout this time, so we sent our reporter Bethan Lewis

:11:19. > :11:36.A post-election haircut at Merthyr's College salon, there's not much talk

:11:37. > :11:41.of Theresa May troubles here, it's a chance to escape college but student

:11:42. > :11:46.her dresser Emma Majors she voted on Thursday. It's the first time I felt

:11:47. > :11:50.I had to vote. Did you have to vote -- think about whether you were

:11:51. > :11:54.going to vote? I had to think about who I was going to pick and when I

:11:55. > :11:57.sat down and spoke with my family, we wanted to make a decision

:11:58. > :12:03.together, now I'm getting older I think it's quite important for us to

:12:04. > :12:06.actually start voting and things because it's our future at the end

:12:07. > :12:12.of the day but some people they don't want to vote. I don't know

:12:13. > :12:18.why. I think there are more people who voted this time because they

:12:19. > :12:23.want Labour in. To help, I suppose, the NHS and the education. Devolved

:12:24. > :12:26.issues but ones that seem to have cut through, across the college

:12:27. > :12:31.they've been trying to get the students engaged in the election and

:12:32. > :12:35.weaving it into lessons. Including reading the party manifestoes in

:12:36. > :12:40.English classes. We looked at some of the language, the language and

:12:41. > :12:43.power, the propaganda. Do you think reading the manifestoes was more

:12:44. > :12:50.likely to make them want to vote? Yes. No, absolutely, there was such

:12:51. > :12:56.a huge focus on tuition fees and issues that they related to stop its

:12:57. > :13:00.not just reading a piece of paper, reading a document it's helped us

:13:01. > :13:04.impact them and their lies and that's how you get passion within

:13:05. > :13:11.learners. Turnout in birth was up seven and a half percent on the 2015

:13:12. > :13:15.general election to over 60% but that's still significantly lower

:13:16. > :13:19.than the all Wales figure and still amongst the low as ten Wales but

:13:20. > :13:26.they are happy here that there has been progress. And for election

:13:27. > :13:32.watchers to it's encouraging. We are really encouraged to see the turnout

:13:33. > :13:34.across Wales increasing by 3%, something that wasn't necessarily

:13:35. > :13:39.expected and it's definitely a really good result. While it's not

:13:40. > :13:45.as high as the EU referendum turnout last year it is the highest it's

:13:46. > :13:49.been since 97 and 40 weekend get early indications on so far is there

:13:50. > :13:53.is potential for the youth vote to increase which will have had a

:13:54. > :13:55.substantial impact. And from a geography A-level exam the students

:13:56. > :14:02.were adamant they wanted their voice to be heard. I thought it was more

:14:03. > :14:08.aimed at younger people to vote, to get our voices heard. This is not

:14:09. > :14:13.only an election about tuition fees which is here important but also an

:14:14. > :14:18.election about Brexit. I think all of my friends particularly on

:14:19. > :14:21.Facebook, I think, pretty much all of my friends voted. In this

:14:22. > :14:28.election Labour strengthened its grip on the seat with the incumbent

:14:29. > :14:33.Gerald Jones taking 60% -- six to 7% of the vote, though turnout was up,

:14:34. > :14:42.40% of people still didn't cast a ballot. You weren't more interested

:14:43. > :14:46.in this election? No. This year, I didn't vote, I don't like to.

:14:47. > :14:55.There's not much to vote for, is there? There's no decency in it. The

:14:56. > :14:59.majority of people I know who went up there, they listen to what was

:15:00. > :15:03.going on on Facebook and Twitter and everything, Jeremy Corbyn has spoken

:15:04. > :15:08.for the young people, I mean, last year when it was all Brexit and

:15:09. > :15:11.during that, I didn't know what was going on, I didn't understand it,

:15:12. > :15:14.didn't want to vote because they didn't want to vote the wrong way

:15:15. > :15:18.because if I voted on something I didn't understand and it ended up

:15:19. > :15:24.worse off, I would feel bad about it but this time, it's been like,

:15:25. > :15:27.Jeremy Corbyn, he's the man! At the moment the information about who

:15:28. > :15:32.voted and why is mainly anecdotal, there will be more data in weeks to

:15:33. > :15:33.come. After an election that's stumped politicians and voters

:15:34. > :15:35.alike. Here to tell me exactly

:15:36. > :15:39.what's going to happen next are Dr Sam Blaxland

:15:40. > :15:41.from Swansea University and the political consultant

:15:42. > :15:57.Valerie Livingston... Yes, for two-week old next in 30

:15:58. > :16:01.seconds? Let's look at the campaign, where did it go wrong, Valerie, for

:16:02. > :16:05.the Conservatives? I don't know that much did wrong with the Conservative

:16:06. > :16:08.campaign, in a sense they got out the vote, the problem was they

:16:09. > :16:14.underestimated the Labour vote and they didn't react to the changing

:16:15. > :16:17.campaign dynamic. There were charges against Theresa May, she didn't

:16:18. > :16:22.respond to them and I think that's why we are now in the position we

:16:23. > :16:26.are, her approval ratings are through the floor. Some, that was

:16:27. > :16:31.the problem, they had a presidential campaign but Theresa May doesn't

:16:32. > :16:34.really strike you as the outgoing, effervescent presidential kind of

:16:35. > :16:39.candidate needed for that? And to echo for Valerie said but also what

:16:40. > :16:47.Andrew said in the last piece, the Conservatives didn't have a bad day,

:16:48. > :16:50.over 53% of the vote, in 1997 they would have killed for that, it

:16:51. > :16:54.wasn't a bad day for that it was a much better day for the Labour

:16:55. > :16:58.Party. The presidential aspect of it clearly was a problem come off when

:16:59. > :17:01.I was last on here was a pulse which came out saying the Conservatives

:17:02. > :17:06.were on track to be the biggest party in Wales, I don't think that

:17:07. > :17:08.was a fluke, there was a law to be said for it, the support base was

:17:09. > :17:13.there it was the fact that the Conservatives had a terrible

:17:14. > :17:18.campaign and Labour had a particularly good one. Theresa May,

:17:19. > :17:20.spoke to the electorate in a patronising manner to be frank and

:17:21. > :17:25.Jeremy Corbyn spoke to them directly, even if you don't agree

:17:26. > :17:30.with many of his policies and the costs, he speaks of rhetoric with

:17:31. > :17:38.hope which is engaging. Is there an element here that we shouldn't pay

:17:39. > :17:41.so much attention or heed to polling and a campaign, the likes of which

:17:42. > :17:45.Jeremy Corbyn set out over the last three weeks can be successful

:17:46. > :17:49.because what he did was address rallies of thousands of thousands of

:17:50. > :17:52.people and they are all Labour supporters, they are not going to

:17:53. > :17:57.win the centre ground, that's out the window, isn't it? We saw those

:17:58. > :18:00.rallies but there was also another Labour campaign going on and there

:18:01. > :18:05.are interesting reports on the Sunday newspapers about peer-to-peer

:18:06. > :18:08.social media sharing that was going on, Labour were targeting their

:18:09. > :18:12.voters through the medium that the voters were comfortable with, not

:18:13. > :18:15.hearing messages on the front pages of the newspapers, they were getting

:18:16. > :18:19.them direct from their friends on the phones. They weren't even

:18:20. > :18:23.watching us, imagine. Does that mean there needs to be a change in future

:18:24. > :18:28.in terms of how campaigns are run, we've heard so many times this will

:18:29. > :18:32.be the social media, this will be the online campaign, has it finally

:18:33. > :18:37.crossed over into that being a reality? I think it's been a gradual

:18:38. > :18:40.evolution, we seem social media player role in political campaigning

:18:41. > :18:44.for over ten years, the American election it plays a significant role

:18:45. > :18:48.there. As the polls I don't think we can discount them all together but I

:18:49. > :18:51.think we might need to be a little bit more cynical and question their

:18:52. > :18:55.methods to make sure we take the results with a pinch of salt. Sam,

:18:56. > :18:59.in Wales, one of the things that struck me looking at the numbers was

:19:00. > :19:04.the dominance of Labour plus the Conservative, it was over 82, 83% of

:19:05. > :19:12.the share, but those two Michael Paterson, the highest since 1966. --

:19:13. > :19:15.the highest of those two parties. Have they squeezed the smaller

:19:16. > :19:19.parties? Perhaps but it's the reason the Conservatives did badly, the

:19:20. > :19:25.fact the small parties have been squeezed, there is no Lib Dem MP

:19:26. > :19:30.here is very significant. Thinking this morning, 1859, there has been a

:19:31. > :19:36.Liberal MP even though Lib Dems are not liberals, levodopa, Lloyd

:19:37. > :19:40.George, Wales has been the party of some prominent liberal types so that

:19:41. > :19:44.significant. But Plaid Cymru, this is indicative of the strange way

:19:45. > :19:49.that first past the post works, Plaid Cymru de Necib but lose in the

:19:50. > :19:53.proportion of their vote but at the end of the day it's judged by seats,

:19:54. > :20:00.which is and has ramifications and an impact for party politics. What

:20:01. > :20:03.did that mean for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats and Ukip,

:20:04. > :20:08.smaller parties who felt the squeezed a such an extent, yes Plaid

:20:09. > :20:13.Cymru one Ceredigion but otherwise party share was down everywhere.

:20:14. > :20:17.What do they need to do to react? I think they need to find a way to

:20:18. > :20:21.make themselves relevant through the whole parliament, a few votes can

:20:22. > :20:25.make the difference. Now is the time for party discipline, they need to

:20:26. > :20:28.decide what the goals are over this parliament however long it lasts and

:20:29. > :20:32.pursue them ruthlessly. I was expecting something like that from

:20:33. > :20:37.Hannah Williams but he seemed more measured, a lot less keen to say we

:20:38. > :20:41.are going to go in and these are our demands and we have these things

:20:42. > :20:43.about devolution and 74 and Harold Wilson and all that kind of thing, a

:20:44. > :20:49.lot more measured. Was that surprising? Maybe he doesn't want to

:20:50. > :20:53.be seen as opportunistic, picking political capital out of a crisis

:20:54. > :20:59.but as the last piece covered there are gains to be made and it's up to

:21:00. > :21:02.Welsh MPs and even the Welsh government to start putting pressure

:21:03. > :21:06.on the UK Government at this times when it really has to grant

:21:07. > :21:09.concessions to get its programme across. Sam you spent a lot of time

:21:10. > :21:14.studying the history of the Conservatives in Wales, this

:21:15. > :21:18.situation they find themselves in now, having to rely on the DUP

:21:19. > :21:22.what's the danger for the Conservatives? Could it read toxic

:21:23. > :21:28.fight the Conservative brand, do you think? Yes, I did a lot by research

:21:29. > :21:32.on the long, hard slog of the Conservative Party pigeon to

:21:33. > :21:36.detoxify themselves in Wales, they were for ever at the party in terms

:21:37. > :21:40.of having perceived as the party of the landed Squires and through a

:21:41. > :21:44.long process they managed to distance themselves from that. There

:21:45. > :21:49.are elements of the DUP politics which are lying with the current

:21:50. > :21:54.bothering Conservative Party but for bubbly more of its right-wing side

:21:55. > :21:57.and faction. There is potentially that problem but ultimately the

:21:58. > :22:02.arithmetic says it's the only way they can go, I think. How

:22:03. > :22:06.long-lasting can that be, will it last five years? Does anyone really

:22:07. > :22:10.think that? The Prime Minister will not last pipe bombs I imagine and

:22:11. > :22:13.this Parliament is going to be short-lived as well. But the

:22:14. > :22:16.Conservatives want to go into another election has reports in the

:22:17. > :22:22.Sunday papers that Labour feels the momentum is with them and they would

:22:23. > :22:26.fear going to the country again for all kinds of reasons. It's a mess

:22:27. > :22:31.extra mission mark do you think that? Theresa May won't last more

:22:32. > :22:36.than five months, until the end of the year? I would give her a little

:22:37. > :22:39.longer, I suspect the Conservative Party will let her progress with

:22:40. > :22:44.Brexit negotiations, WADA said dirty job and most Conservative

:22:45. > :22:46.politicians don't want to be seen as the face of Brexit because

:22:47. > :22:51.politically it will be difficult but as we progress through that we might

:22:52. > :22:55.find the knives, for Theresa May. I think an election next year. It

:22:56. > :22:58.might just be me who sends this when she was going into Downing Street

:22:59. > :23:03.and felt like a speech she made, the way she did it was as if she was

:23:04. > :23:07.putting into motion the handover of power. In slow motion, not doing an

:23:08. > :23:12.Ed Miliband, cutting and running leaving everyone in chaos but I

:23:13. > :23:14.would assume discussions will be happening very soon about how she

:23:15. > :23:19.slowly transitions to another leader but I have no insight into the

:23:20. > :23:25.corridors of power. Valery, the point you made, there is Brexit,

:23:26. > :23:30.time and again we heard during this campaign, the discussions start in a

:23:31. > :23:34.week. That is still happening, how does that change the dynamic, in

:23:35. > :23:39.terms of forming a government, Theresa May as Prime Minister, it

:23:40. > :23:43.buys her time but whenever there is a change of Prime Minister it's

:23:44. > :23:46.always going to cause a hell of a lot of confusion with race

:23:47. > :23:55.discussions? It makes things hugely difficult, the matter what side of

:23:56. > :23:59.the political divide you are wrong, -- you are on... What I would say

:24:00. > :24:01.about the DUP, their position on Brexit is interesting and different

:24:02. > :24:09.to some of the Conservative politicians. Perhaps having the DUP

:24:10. > :24:13.there to deal with one of the great unanswered issues about leaving the

:24:14. > :24:18.European Union which has the border with Ireland might even add a useful

:24:19. > :24:21.flavour to it. It also means I guess, if you have the DUP not

:24:22. > :24:25.calling the shots but contributing to things, they won't allow Theresa

:24:26. > :24:31.May to have no deal because that would mean having to have that hard

:24:32. > :24:34.border with Ireland so went Theresa May says no deal is better than a

:24:35. > :24:39.bad deal the DUP are going to say, no, no, that is not the case. Does

:24:40. > :24:43.it change how she will have to approach the Brexit discussions?

:24:44. > :24:48.Certainly it places constraints on how she can take the negotiations

:24:49. > :24:50.forward, the DUP have set out their stands on how they want the Irish

:24:51. > :24:53.border to operate and I would imagine that will be a red line for

:24:54. > :24:57.them in any agreement they reach with Theresa May. But minority

:24:58. > :25:02.governments don't need to be a disaster, it is workable, we've seen

:25:03. > :25:07.the SNP lead two minority governments in Scotland but for me

:25:08. > :25:10.the big question is three Brexit, so complex politically, it's an stable

:25:11. > :25:16.and an uncertain arrangement. The point I was trying to make, the

:25:17. > :25:20.panel earlier, that issue of money, because the DUP will want a certain

:25:21. > :25:24.amount of yes, please, thank you and when we have the money that would

:25:25. > :25:27.have gone to the EU it is going to go into a fund that the

:25:28. > :25:32.Conservatives have, Scotland will make their voice heard, the DUP will

:25:33. > :25:36.make sure its voice heard, is there at this danger that Wales is

:25:37. > :25:41.ignored? The DUP might want a lot of supply for their confidence. There

:25:42. > :25:45.is the potential that Wales is ignored and Welsh politics is always

:25:46. > :25:49.aligned, if you like, two English politics more so than Scottish and

:25:50. > :25:51.Northern Irish politics. There's a danger that Wales sits on the

:25:52. > :25:56.sidelines but were discussing, there is the Welsh government's role in

:25:57. > :26:02.this as well and they will have to be part of discussions because a lot

:26:03. > :26:07.of devolved issues in Wales is for European money goes into. Carwyn

:26:08. > :26:12.Jones has tried to make the point and make his voice heard, making it

:26:13. > :26:16.heard will be more difficult. He can't be reactive this time because

:26:17. > :26:19.the situation changes too quickly so instead of waiting to be invited to

:26:20. > :26:23.the table and be annoyed when he isn't, he needs to push for that

:26:24. > :26:28.now. It's not about the MPs to campaign for that money it's down to

:26:29. > :26:30.the Welsh government. They have this paper last year along with Plaid

:26:31. > :26:36.Cymru, they've made known their views, to Fort extent now do you

:26:37. > :26:39.think because the dynamic has changed in Westminster, it's going

:26:40. > :26:43.to be difficult for Carwyn Jones and the Welsh government? Yes, it will

:26:44. > :26:49.be difficult and there is also the point to add, regardless of us much

:26:50. > :26:54.less stable Westminster government, Wales still voted to leave the

:26:55. > :26:59.European Union, 52-48 proportions. That needs to be taken into account

:27:00. > :27:03.but the election wasn't just a rerun of the referendum which makes

:27:04. > :27:05.everything thrown up in the air and it doesn't line up neatly. Thank you

:27:06. > :27:07.both so much. That's it from the Sunday

:27:08. > :27:09.Politics for today. What kind of political landscape

:27:10. > :27:12.will we be talking about next week? There's only one way

:27:13. > :27:14.to find out of course - Now I suggest you all go and lie

:27:15. > :27:19.down in a darkened room and prepare If you can't do that,

:27:20. > :27:23.then you've always got our feed on Twitter to keep you company

:27:24. > :27:26.- we're @walespolitics. But that's all from this

:27:27. > :27:29.week - diolch am wylio,