:00:39. > :00:40.Good morning, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:42.Not good enough - that is Theresa May's
:00:43. > :00:47.own verdict on the response to the Grenfell Tower fire,
:00:48. > :00:50.but that is also what a growing number are saying about her
:00:51. > :00:54.Having failed to win a majority, Mrs May will face a daily battle
:00:55. > :00:59.to win the votes she needs in Parliament, which is maybe why
:01:00. > :01:02.the new Leader of the Commons has already cancelled next year's
:01:03. > :01:14.And Labour are claiming the Government isn't legitimate.
:01:15. > :01:18.We look back to 1974 and ask those who were there
:01:19. > :01:20.how to run the country during a hung parliament.
:01:21. > :01:30.And hard or soft? How do you like your Brexit?
:01:31. > :01:32.And with me to discuss all of that and more,
:01:33. > :01:37.three journalists who always defy expectations - Steve Richards,
:01:38. > :01:39.Julia Hartley-Brewer, and Tom Newton Dunn.
:01:40. > :01:44.And they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:45. > :01:46.Theresa May's authority was already in freefall even
:01:47. > :01:48.before her faltering handling of the appalling disaster
:01:49. > :01:54.Yesterday she admitted the official response had not been good enough.
:01:55. > :01:59.This morning's front pages, as well as reflecting the full
:02:00. > :02:02.horror of that tragedy, are also full of claims
:02:03. > :02:04.that her critics are circling and ready to pounce,
:02:05. > :02:10.though none, as yet, have come out publicly.
:02:11. > :02:13.Her Chancellor, Philip Hammond, was asked about the Prime Minister's
:02:14. > :02:17.position on the Andrew Marr Show earlier.
:02:18. > :02:24.I think what the country needs now is a period of calm while we get on
:02:25. > :02:27.with the job in hand. We've got some very serious issues to address,
:02:28. > :02:33.including the Brexit negotiations are just starting. Theresa is
:02:34. > :02:36.leading the Government and I think the Government needs to get on with
:02:37. > :02:39.his job. The you know what? I think that is what most people in the
:02:40. > :02:45.country will think - the Government needs to get on with the day job of
:02:46. > :02:51.Government. Get on with the day job, Tom - is that what they are saying
:02:52. > :02:54.in private? Some are. I was at lunch with a minister on Thursday who
:02:55. > :02:58.said, we need to get this thing sorted now because if we go one like
:02:59. > :03:02.this with the Prime Minister without any power at all, we will end up in
:03:03. > :03:06.a John Major situation and it will only get worse. Talking to people
:03:07. > :03:11.this week, I don't think that is the predominant view. That seems to be
:03:12. > :03:15.that she has to stay for the time being, at least until conference,
:03:16. > :03:18.and possibly as far as the end of the Brexit negotiations, because
:03:19. > :03:23.there is no real alternative, no obvious person who can come in. The
:03:24. > :03:26.last thing they want to do now is have an unbelievably divisive
:03:27. > :03:30.leadership contest and rip up the very thin consensus that currently
:03:31. > :03:35.still exist on Brexit and go back to square one. Journalist in London are
:03:36. > :03:43.now searching for whom Tom had lunch with on Thursday. Julia, is that
:03:44. > :03:45.sustainable in public? The Prime Minister's authority was already in
:03:46. > :03:52.free fall and she has not handled this disaster well. After the 1922
:03:53. > :03:56.committee meeting, they said, she handled this well and can handle
:03:57. > :04:04.this stuff. It was astoundingly poorly handled. Both practically and
:04:05. > :04:08.in terms of PR. The question is, is she capable of changing and behaving
:04:09. > :04:16.in a different way? Her selling point running for the leadership
:04:17. > :04:23.was, I don't do emotion and I am steady as she goes. It has not been,
:04:24. > :04:25.so if you don't have the touchy-feely Tony Blair David
:04:26. > :04:28.Cameron stuff, and you don't have strong and stable, you are kind of
:04:29. > :04:35.left with nothing. It's not that people don't want her, they just
:04:36. > :04:43.don't want the alternative. Steve, you have studied and lived through
:04:44. > :04:50.many of these situations that cannot go on, but often it does. For one
:04:51. > :04:53.thing, there is a fear of an early election, where MPs will think, we
:04:54. > :04:59.might lose our seats, so we must stop that from happening. Fear the
:05:00. > :05:10.leadership contest by which some freakish sequence they elect another
:05:11. > :05:17.dud. 74-79, Gordon Brown after the nonelection, and he survived several
:05:18. > :05:22.coups. This is a hung parliament where she has lost an overall
:05:23. > :05:27.majority, and I think there are questions about whether she herself
:05:28. > :05:31.is ready for the mountainous, daunting assent to come. One of the
:05:32. > :05:36.reasons that Gordon Brown succeeded and carried on, Steve, was that
:05:37. > :05:40.other people concluded they might not be better at the big job in
:05:41. > :05:45.hand, then the economic crisis. Is there a chance that now, for all the
:05:46. > :05:52.criticism of her, people say, know what, she is the best handle Brexit?
:05:53. > :05:56.They want her to carry the can for Brexit and everything. No one wants
:05:57. > :06:01.the leadership, whether it is Boris Johnson, David Davis or anyone else,
:06:02. > :06:06.unless they can ride up on their white steed and save the day. Also,
:06:07. > :06:10.Brexit will not be the most beautiful experience. There will be
:06:11. > :06:15.compromises and pain. A lot of people think, we will get her to
:06:16. > :06:20.sign the ?50 billion cheque, someone else can come in on a white horse
:06:21. > :06:23.and save the day. Bets from journalists are not a clever thing
:06:24. > :06:29.to do, but are you all saying that you think she will survive for some
:06:30. > :06:34.time? I think she will, but I'm not sure how long. Philip Hammond didn't
:06:35. > :06:38.answer the question because he doesn't know either. I think she
:06:39. > :06:44.will for some time. A week ago, I thought there would be an election
:06:45. > :06:47.in the autumn. I didn't make a prediction of the election outcome,
:06:48. > :06:53.so I didn't get it wrong, but I didn't get it right either. If she
:06:54. > :06:55.doesn't screw up, she will probably last until the end of Brexit. For
:06:56. > :06:58.the moment, thank you very much. Theresa May's failure to win
:06:59. > :07:00.a majority after a disastrous election campaign has
:07:01. > :07:02.left her critics returning to that famous phrase once used
:07:03. > :07:05.by Norman Lamont to describe John Major - in office,
:07:06. > :07:07.but not in power. Short of MPs and shorn
:07:08. > :07:09.of her closest advisers, she now faces a disgruntled party,
:07:10. > :07:12.an emboldened opposition, the start of Brexit negotiations and,
:07:13. > :07:20.as we've been saying, claims that she has mishandled
:07:21. > :07:22.a national crisis. When Theresa May finally visited
:07:23. > :07:24.residents at the scene of the Grenfell Tower fire,
:07:25. > :07:27.she was jeered by some residents, Many questions have been raised,
:07:28. > :07:32.of course, about successive Governments' approach to fire
:07:33. > :07:35.regulation, as well as the speed and scale of the official
:07:36. > :07:39.response to the disaster. This crisis comes at a time
:07:40. > :07:43.when the Prime Minister is still trying to construct
:07:44. > :07:46.a Commons majority by securing the support of the ten MPs
:07:47. > :07:49.of Northern Ireland's The DUP is demanding more funding
:07:50. > :07:53.for Northern Ireland and is thought to want a series of Conservative
:07:54. > :08:04.manifesto promises dropped. This means that Wednesday's Queen's
:08:05. > :08:07.Speech, when the Government sets out its plans for the year, will -
:08:08. > :08:10.in the words of one Controversial plans like reversing
:08:11. > :08:13.the ban on opening new grammar schools, ending free lunches
:08:14. > :08:15.at English primary schools, and the scheme designed to reform
:08:16. > :08:18.social care funding are all likely to be scaled down or
:08:19. > :08:20.dropped altogether. The Government has scrapped next
:08:21. > :08:26.year's Queen's speech and is planning a rare
:08:27. > :08:28.two-year Parliament to give more time for MPs to debate
:08:29. > :08:32.Brexit, it says, but its critics say the Government
:08:33. > :08:35.is running scared. Because, of course, what hangs over
:08:36. > :08:37.everything the Government now does is the small matter
:08:38. > :08:40.of negotiating our way out Well, to discuss all of this,
:08:41. > :08:50.I'm joined by the newly appointed leader of the Commons,
:08:51. > :08:58.Andrea Leadsom. Good morning, and thanks for coming
:08:59. > :09:05.on the programme. The election seems a lifetime ago, but then, the
:09:06. > :09:08.Conservative Party promised strong and stable leadership. It's not
:09:09. > :09:14.unreasonable to say that you don't look strong or stable and there's
:09:15. > :09:18.not a lot of leadership. The last couple of weeks have been extremely
:09:19. > :09:22.devastating, and I think the real focus of the Government over the
:09:23. > :09:27.last week since that awful tragedy at Grenfell Tower has been trying to
:09:28. > :09:30.ensure that everything is being done for the victims. I know there has
:09:31. > :09:34.been a big narrative about what could have been done better and so
:09:35. > :09:38.on, but in truth, the Prime Minister has had a job to do, and she really
:09:39. > :09:43.has focused on trying to make sure that the residents are taking care
:09:44. > :09:47.of, and that's got to be the priority. Why did you go and meet
:09:48. > :09:52.them to hear their anger and pain but she initially did not? I was
:09:53. > :09:56.there as the new Leader of the House of Commons and had helped to arrange
:09:57. > :10:01.an emergency briefing for MPs and peers the previous day, and it was
:10:02. > :10:06.so apparent how desperately moved and sympathetic and distraught all
:10:07. > :10:10.MPs were, right across the House. Which raises the question of why the
:10:11. > :10:21.Prime Minister did not go. She had a job to do. Too busy? No, but she
:10:22. > :10:25.needed to ensure that what the residents needed, sorting out bank
:10:26. > :10:28.accounts, mobile phones, trauma counselling and accommodation, she
:10:29. > :10:33.was trying to get a handle on all of that to make sure that those things
:10:34. > :10:35.were taking care of. She issued a statement yesterday saying the
:10:36. > :10:42.response was not good enough. The one nudges and winks from her
:10:43. > :10:46.advisers that it was not done properly. Do you think the Prime
:10:47. > :10:50.Minister did not get this right? I think we are all very conscious that
:10:51. > :10:56.the support wasn't good enough in the first couple of days. Obviously,
:10:57. > :11:01.all local councils are geared up to try and deal with the relief from
:11:02. > :11:07.disasters such as this, but this is unprecedented, this is absolutely
:11:08. > :11:11.harrowing, and I know that the council did everything they could
:11:12. > :11:16.with massive support. People are furious, and with good reason. I
:11:17. > :11:20.hear you say that you understand and you feel people's pain. The Prime
:11:21. > :11:26.Minister was busy, the council did their bit, so who got it wrong?
:11:27. > :11:30.Someone has to be held responsible. Absolutely right, and as I am trying
:11:31. > :11:34.to explain, the council really... And I rang the chief executive to
:11:35. > :11:38.try and give specific feedback from some of the residents. He was
:11:39. > :11:43.absolutely trying to put the right people in place to deal with that.
:11:44. > :11:47.We had a lot of feedback from community leaders. So the council
:11:48. > :11:50.would be replaced? We are hearing talk of someone being drafted in to
:11:51. > :11:55.replace them because they are not doing well enough. The Prime
:11:56. > :11:58.Minister has decided to bring in very experienced civil servants to
:11:59. > :12:01.improve and to add to the resources of the local council so that issues
:12:02. > :12:06.can be addressed much more quickly and with greater experience and
:12:07. > :12:10.precision, quite rightly. Part of the problem with what may have led
:12:11. > :12:16.to the fire and what is happening now is that no one thinks anyone is
:12:17. > :12:21.in charge. When you talk about who could is -- who keeps people save,
:12:22. > :12:25.is it the council, the people who manage the block, is at the fire
:12:26. > :12:32.brigade, the people who inspect the work, the Government? No one knows
:12:33. > :12:36.who is in charge. In this specific case, the Prime Minister is now in
:12:37. > :12:40.charge of the committee that is bringing together all necessary
:12:41. > :12:44.resources, but I think you make a very good question, Nick - we do
:12:45. > :12:49.need to understand better how we can ensure that this just cannot happen
:12:50. > :12:53.again. By clear lines of responsibility. This is horrific.
:12:54. > :13:00.Yes, all those lessons need to be learnt about if I may, there are two
:13:01. > :13:03.aspects: Dealing with the very real, pressing, urgent needs of those
:13:04. > :13:06.poor, absolutely horrified and traumatised victims, and then this
:13:07. > :13:11.bigger question about who should be in charge and where the buck stops
:13:12. > :13:15.and who should be in control. They are two separate issues. When you
:13:16. > :13:25.hear the rage, and it is rage can I ask a personal question? Do you feel
:13:26. > :13:30.shame as a politician? Of course. We all think, what could we have done
:13:31. > :13:35.or should we have done? It's just unbearable. You know, this cannot
:13:36. > :13:39.happen in the 21st century, and yet it has. If it weren't for this, this
:13:40. > :13:42.would still be a huge week in politics, with the Queen 's speech
:13:43. > :13:45.coming, a new parliament, and you have been appointed Leader of the
:13:46. > :13:51.Commons, in charge of Government business. Why have you already,
:13:52. > :13:55.almost your first act as Leader of the Commons, scrapped the next Queen
:13:56. > :14:03.'s speech, next year's, to make sure that the parliament last for two
:14:04. > :14:08.years and not one, unusually? It happened in 2005 and 2010. It didn't
:14:09. > :14:11.happen during the war or during other crises. It is the rate of
:14:12. > :14:16.legislation rather than crises. There is a lot of legislation to go
:14:17. > :14:20.through. And we're leaving the EU at the end of March 2019, so having a
:14:21. > :14:24.two-year period in which to bring together parliament and Government
:14:25. > :14:28.to really make progress with legislation that is essential to
:14:29. > :14:32.making a real success of Brexit, there are some big advantages, it's
:14:33. > :14:36.all a bit technical, but as you will know, select committees don't have
:14:37. > :14:39.to ditch enquiries, bills don't have to be carried forward, and there
:14:40. > :14:45.will be more Parliamentary time for scrutiny... The advantages, you
:14:46. > :14:49.don't have to risk another Queen 's speech which you might lose. In
:14:50. > :14:52.other words, having two years makes it just a little bit easier for the
:14:53. > :14:58.Government to survive than it might otherwise be.
:14:59. > :15:05.I want to be clear, that is not any reason for doing this. There are
:15:06. > :15:11.plenty of opportunities if you want to speculate on problems for the
:15:12. > :15:18.Government. The point about this two year Parliament is it enables us to
:15:19. > :15:23.get the work of leaving the EU done, but the same time we have a
:15:24. > :15:26.legislative programme to tackle the issues of inequality, lack of
:15:27. > :15:30.opportunity, and we want to have a good run at that at this difficult
:15:31. > :15:37.time. You have yet to unveil the deal with the DUP, I assume we will
:15:38. > :15:42.see that tomorrow, we do, how many parts of the manifesto will have to
:15:43. > :15:49.be ditched? There are lengthy conversations now with the DUP and
:15:50. > :15:54.we share a number of interests in common, ensuring we make a success
:15:55. > :15:59.of Brexit and there's no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and
:16:00. > :16:02.Northern Ireland. They will brace against hard austerity, so some of
:16:03. > :16:07.the tough things you're doing in your manifesto like scrapping all
:16:08. > :16:12.meals in England for example, changing the social care system,
:16:13. > :16:17.ending the winter fuel allowance for some people, they will go, won't
:16:18. > :16:22.they? We don't ever talk about the Queen's speech in advance, the Queen
:16:23. > :16:26.will make those announcements on Wednesday. I'm preparing people for
:16:27. > :16:31.the fact that some of the things you said in the manifesto will have to
:16:32. > :16:38.go? The issue is that we have an enormous job to do to make a success
:16:39. > :16:42.of Brexit and we have huge ambitions for a social, domestic legislative
:16:43. > :16:46.programme that will improve life opportunities and reduce
:16:47. > :16:52.inequalities in this nation. Is that's a long winded way of saying
:16:53. > :16:58.yes? We will prioritise those things. You went to the country and
:16:59. > :17:02.Theresa May went to the country asking for a Brexit mandate and you
:17:03. > :17:11.didn't get one, the country didn't give you a majority. As one of the
:17:12. > :17:16.leading campaigners for Leave, does that make you conclude something has
:17:17. > :17:21.to change? Overrated percent voted for parties who stood on manifestos
:17:22. > :17:26.for leaving the EU so I don't recognise what you say that we don't
:17:27. > :17:31.have a mandate for Brexit. We do. At the referendum last year and also
:17:32. > :17:35.the results of the general election. As I say, over 80% of people voting
:17:36. > :17:40.for parties that will respect the result of the referendum. Had on
:17:41. > :17:43.television this morning Kier Starmer of the Labour Party saying he wanted
:17:44. > :17:53.to stay in the customs union, in other words you may have a majority
:17:54. > :17:56.for the headlines, but the detail there is no majority for, no
:17:57. > :18:00.agreement on and what I'm really asking you is whether you will have
:18:01. > :18:05.to reach out to find that sort of agreement. In my new job as Leader
:18:06. > :18:10.of the House of Commons, it will be important to listen to all members
:18:11. > :18:14.right across The House, but I think it is extremely clear that in
:18:15. > :18:20.leaving the EU we will be taking back control of our laws, our
:18:21. > :18:26.borders, our money, and that means leaving the single market, it means
:18:27. > :18:29.giving up on free movement. It means taking back those laws, putting them
:18:30. > :18:39.into UK law and being able to change them. If it takes time, in other
:18:40. > :18:42.words if that is the agreed and objective but to take some time and
:18:43. > :18:47.the Chancellor says, you know what, we need two or three years for
:18:48. > :18:56.business to be clear, for there to be no so-called cliff edges, do you
:18:57. > :19:02.say you have the time? The negotiation begins tomorrow. It is
:19:03. > :19:07.going to be very, you know, strong on all sides, but certainly my
:19:08. > :19:12.experience from talking to other EU politicians is that they absolutely
:19:13. > :19:19.recognise the desire as we do for a strong partnership and for there to
:19:20. > :19:24.be low tariff... I asked about time, and the reason is let's not use the
:19:25. > :19:30.word speculation, the Chancellor on the television this morning said
:19:31. > :19:34.time, no cliff edges, time. Where you have politicians across the EU
:19:35. > :19:41.and the UK who share the desire for a successful outcome with lower
:19:42. > :19:44.tariffs, zero nontariff barriers, free trade between ourselves, it
:19:45. > :19:50.should be possible to meet the time frame. In other words no
:19:51. > :19:56.transitional arrangements? I am extremely optimistic there is a lot
:19:57. > :20:00.we can agree on. I am just saying to you, my expectation is there will be
:20:01. > :20:04.a lot we can agree on and that will facilitate a smooth transition. It
:20:05. > :20:08.is clear Theresa May will not be running as your leader at the next
:20:09. > :20:13.general election, so when is the right time for the party to consider
:20:14. > :20:21.who will be leading next? Before or after Brexit? That is absolutely a
:20:22. > :20:26.statement I would reject. You cannot see into the future. We have seen a
:20:27. > :20:29.lot of change in recent weeks and months. The Prime Minister has done
:20:30. > :20:34.a fantastic job in bringing the country back to a good place since
:20:35. > :20:41.she has been the leader and Prime Minister. She is determined to
:20:42. > :20:46.continue... She might lead the party into another election. I don't look
:20:47. > :20:52.into the future. Let's put it another way, do you think there is a
:20:53. > :20:56.chance some of the Conservative will lead the Brexit negotiations? I
:20:57. > :21:03.think the Prime Minister will lead the Brexit negotiations. She has led
:21:04. > :21:09.preparations extremely well and determinedly on behalf of the whole
:21:10. > :21:14.country. And in that two years for the negotiation, it may be in need
:21:15. > :21:19.time to save can look ahead to who our next leader is. I think it is
:21:20. > :21:23.unhelpful to speculate on the future in that way. We need a coming
:21:24. > :21:29.together, a recognition that all people need to have their say, and
:21:30. > :21:34.strong leadership that can take us forward. Theresa May with her
:21:35. > :21:40.Cabinet are determined to provide that. Are you believed you didn't
:21:41. > :21:50.get the job? I supported the Prime Minister. -- are you relieve you
:21:51. > :21:53.didn't get the job? I am completely backing Theresa May as our Prime
:21:54. > :21:58.Minister. Thank you for taking the time to join does.
:21:59. > :22:01.Whilst Theresa May and the Government have been struggling
:22:02. > :22:03.to deal with the disaster at Grenfell Tower, Jeremy Corbyn
:22:04. > :22:06.was hailed by residents after his visit to the area on Thursday.
:22:07. > :22:08.Is Labour properly reflecting and channelling the public's anger,
:22:09. > :22:10.or are they exploiting it - playing political games,
:22:11. > :22:15.I'm joined now by the Shadow Local Government Secretary and Labour's
:22:16. > :22:27.Good morning. There is a lot of anger on the streets, much of it
:22:28. > :22:32.understandable that other people will share, but as the main
:22:33. > :22:38.opposition party, do you have a responsibility to calm it down
:22:39. > :22:44.rather than turn it up? I don't think we are stirring it up, I would
:22:45. > :22:48.hope that we have been fully responsible in reflecting the
:22:49. > :22:54.concerns, the anxieties, the hurt and worry of those residents in
:22:55. > :22:58.Kensington. I want to pay tribute to the community that pulls together in
:22:59. > :23:05.the face of adversity. Can't even begin to think of the pain that
:23:06. > :23:09.people are going through, the hurt that community is going through, and
:23:10. > :23:13.yet they have pulled together to look after one another to do some of
:23:14. > :23:17.the things that statutory authorities should be doing, and I
:23:18. > :23:21.think it is right and proper that we get to the bottom of what has
:23:22. > :23:27.happened in this dreadful tragedy, and make sure we put right
:23:28. > :23:31.everything that needs putting right so we never, ever experienced
:23:32. > :23:37.anything as horrific as this again. I want to talk about how that might
:23:38. > :23:45.be done in a second. You safe Labour are coming down. Clive Lewis tweeted
:23:46. > :23:50.Burn Neo Liberalism not People, do you think that is responsible at a
:23:51. > :23:57.time like this? I think it is important we are measured in our
:23:58. > :24:03.approach here. Is that measured? Clive will answer for what he has
:24:04. > :24:08.tweeted. There is an issue here that we have had seven years of cuts to
:24:09. > :24:12.our public services. Local authorities don't have the resources
:24:13. > :24:19.that they need to be able to provide some of the most basic services. The
:24:20. > :24:23.Fire Service is under resourced as well, and there are issues. This
:24:24. > :24:27.probably isn't the time to go into them, but there are issues that need
:24:28. > :24:30.to be resolved about how we make sure that health and safety
:24:31. > :24:35.regulation isn't seen as a burden on business, isn't seen as unnecessary
:24:36. > :24:41.red tape, it's about saving lives and protecting people. Your
:24:42. > :24:46.implication, almost your statement, is austerity was the reason for the
:24:47. > :24:51.fire. It may turn out to be true, and plenty of people believe it, but
:24:52. > :24:59.what is your evidence for saying austerity caused this fire? I
:25:00. > :25:03.haven't said that. I said there are number of issues here. Health and
:25:04. > :25:08.safety regulation is one, building regulations are another. The role of
:25:09. > :25:12.government is important in this, how local authorities are able to fund
:25:13. > :25:19.under resourced civil contingencies emergency planning. But your leader
:25:20. > :25:24.said if you cut local authority expenditure, the price is paid
:25:25. > :25:29.somehow. The implication was clear that the cuts lead to the fire and
:25:30. > :25:32.it could be that this was bad regulation, it could be that the
:25:33. > :25:37.regulation was fine but not followed, it could be criminal
:25:38. > :25:43.negligence, it may not turn out to be cuts at all. It could be all of
:25:44. > :25:47.those things and the important thing is we get the inquiry. We have as
:25:48. > :25:53.wide as possible terms of reference for the inquiry, we ensure the
:25:54. > :25:57.residents, victims and local community have a full voice in that
:25:58. > :26:02.inquiry and we make sure the actions which are required both that we
:26:03. > :26:07.already know from previous incidents but also the recommendations that,
:26:08. > :26:13.of this inquiry are acted upon. We cannot ever have situation again
:26:14. > :26:17.where we have recommendations from previous reports that have not been
:26:18. > :26:25.acted on by government or local government. There has been a focus
:26:26. > :26:29.of criticism on Kensington Council but there are many Labour councils
:26:30. > :26:36.with this kind of cladding on the residential tower blocks. Do you now
:26:37. > :26:38.know how many it is? No, but we do know every local authority and
:26:39. > :26:44.housing association in the country are now urgently investigating their
:26:45. > :26:49.own housing stock and we very clearly have to know that. I have
:26:50. > :26:57.got tower blocks in my own constituency that have recently been
:26:58. > :27:01.re-clad and I have contacted my housing providers because I want
:27:02. > :27:06.assurances on behalf of my constituents that they are living in
:27:07. > :27:14.safe housing. We understand me that carried out the work in Grenfell
:27:15. > :27:19.also carried out work in Labour run Camden so it's possible this sort of
:27:20. > :27:27.fire, God help us that it doesn't, it might happen in another borough
:27:28. > :27:30.and in an area where the parties opposed to austerity. Absolutely and
:27:31. > :27:35.we have got to make sure we identify precisely which housing stock does
:27:36. > :27:41.not meet modern requirements, does not meet the safety minimum
:27:42. > :27:45.standards, and that we urgently put that right. We cannot ever have a
:27:46. > :27:50.catastrophe like this again, and I have been in this job as shadow
:27:51. > :27:56.community Secretary for four days now. It pains me to see what has
:27:57. > :28:00.happened in Kensington. This is awful, these are human lives and we
:28:01. > :28:06.have got to start treating people and communities with the respect and
:28:07. > :28:09.with the humanity that they deserve. You were careful at the top to say
:28:10. > :28:16.it's important to be responsible, what do you think the fourth of the
:28:17. > :28:25.call for a day of rage, not by the Labour Party, the day of rage on
:28:26. > :28:31.Wednesday and quote, the Tories have blood on their hands? I don't
:28:32. > :28:35.associate myself with those kind of comments. I think if we are going to
:28:36. > :28:39.do something on Wednesday it is a vigil for those people who have lost
:28:40. > :28:45.their lives because this is a tragedy and we cannot ever have that
:28:46. > :28:49.happen again. The reason I ask is John McDonnell, the Shadow
:28:50. > :28:54.Chancellor, said, and I quote, I don't think this Government is a
:28:55. > :29:00.legitimate government. Do you think it is?
:29:01. > :29:06.In the sense that Theresa May went to the country asking for a bigger
:29:07. > :29:10.Parliamentary majority and a mandate from the people, and she came out on
:29:11. > :29:14.the 8th of June with no Parliamentary majority at all, so it
:29:15. > :29:17.does raise questions about the legitimacy of this Government's
:29:18. > :29:22.ability to put forward a programme that they stood for election on.
:29:23. > :29:26.That is a different point. I asked a simple question: Is this a
:29:27. > :29:29.That is a different point. I asked a legitimate Government? Did they win
:29:30. > :29:37.more votes and seats under the rules and therefore is your message to
:29:38. > :29:42.anyone taking to the streets to claim that they are not legitimate?
:29:43. > :29:50.We are a democracy, we have elections, and the Conservatives won
:29:51. > :29:56.42% of the vote in the election. The Tories lost seats, and the Labour
:29:57. > :29:59.Party gain seats. We are in a Parliamentary democracy and we will
:30:00. > :30:04.hold the Government to account for as long as little as it survives.
:30:05. > :30:13.Why did Mr McDonnell not say what you have said, that you will beat
:30:14. > :30:16.them in the House of Commons? He went on to say, we need as many as 1
:30:17. > :30:21.million people on the streets of London. He wasn't talking about this
:30:22. > :30:23.fire, to be fair, but about a protest planned for the start of
:30:24. > :30:27.July. He said we need a million people on the streets of London to
:30:28. > :30:34.force the Tories out. Is that democracy? Clearly, peaceful
:30:35. > :30:37.demonstration is part of our democratic rights, and people feel
:30:38. > :30:41.very strongly that this Government has lost a mandate because Theresa
:30:42. > :30:45.May went to the country asking for a bigger majority, and the country
:30:46. > :30:49.said no. They took that majority that she had away from her. I want
:30:50. > :30:55.to make sure we hold this Government to account, and at the earliest
:30:56. > :30:59.opportunity defeat this Government so that we can put into practice our
:31:00. > :31:04.positive agenda for a fairer, better, more recall Britain that
:31:05. > :31:06.works for the many, not the few. Thank you for joining us.
:31:07. > :31:12.Will the Government's Brexit plans have to change
:31:13. > :31:13.Theresa May demanded, leaving them with no
:31:14. > :31:17.Lots of attention has focused on whether Britain's future does lie
:31:18. > :31:23.That makes it easy for firms to trade within the EU,
:31:24. > :31:25.but prevents Britain striking its own free trade deals
:31:26. > :31:32.Let's have a listen to Labour's Shadow Brexit Secretary,
:31:33. > :31:36.Keir Starmer, and the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, speaking earlier.
:31:37. > :31:40.Well, I think that should be left on the table.
:31:41. > :31:42.So, we could stay inside the customs union?
:31:43. > :31:46.We are leaving the EU, and because we are leaving the EU
:31:47. > :31:50.we will be leaving the single market, and by the way we will be
:31:51. > :31:53.The question is not whether we are leaving the customs union,
:31:54. > :31:56.the question is what we put in its place in order
:31:57. > :32:01.to deliver the objectives the Prime Minister set out.
:32:02. > :32:04.Well, to see what two people from the world
:32:05. > :32:07.of business make of this, I'm joined by the former director
:32:08. > :32:10.general of the CBI and one-time trade minister Digby Jones,
:32:11. > :32:18.and by the fund manager Nicola Horlick.
:32:19. > :32:26.Good morning to you both. Digby, before we get bogged down in what
:32:27. > :32:31.people should or shouldn't do in the Government, from a business
:32:32. > :32:36.perspective, the customs union - what exactly is it can provide does
:32:37. > :32:40.it matter to businesses? -- what exactly is it and why does it matter
:32:41. > :32:46.to businesses? People are saying we need to stay in the single market,
:32:47. > :32:56.but why then they say the other words - Britain's judges don't have
:32:57. > :32:59.control over the law? The customs union is something where you can be
:33:00. > :33:04.within a trading relationship, not as integrated as the single market,
:33:05. > :33:11.but the big problem we will have coming out of the single market is
:33:12. > :33:18.not tariffs, I don't think, because that will hurt Europe, the problem
:33:19. > :33:27.is the bureaucracy, the regulatory burden of getting goods and services
:33:28. > :33:31.across borders. Crudely, businesses are worried about being delayed on
:33:32. > :33:35.the border by paperwork, deliberate paperwork, perhaps, making it harder
:33:36. > :33:39.for our businesses to do business. That is what the issue is. That is
:33:40. > :33:50.the biggest part. The other part is that you get this sense of being in
:33:51. > :33:53.something, so that investors from Japan, America and China who come to
:33:54. > :33:57.Britain for good reasons get the advantage of being within this
:33:58. > :34:02.trading relationship. There are two big downsides to it. One is that you
:34:03. > :34:07.have to pay money for it. It doesn't come free. There is a check to
:34:08. > :34:13.write. And the second one, the big one, in all my years at the CBI and
:34:14. > :34:16.as a Trade Minister, you find that we are well known for trading openly
:34:17. > :34:20.around the world with good-quality traders will stop we don't do the
:34:21. > :34:24.protectionism of America and France, we are actually good at this. This
:34:25. > :34:31.forbid you from going around the world and dealing with Singapore,
:34:32. > :34:34.America or China, or whoever. You have two at brussels do it and you
:34:35. > :34:37.are forbidden from being part of the global economy. I think that will be
:34:38. > :34:41.the big thing that stops things. Thank you for the moment. Nicola, in
:34:42. > :34:45.the end, if you could get the advantages of a border that was
:34:46. > :34:50.simple to do business across, wouldn't it make sense, as Digby
:34:51. > :34:53.Jones says, to get out of the customs union and be able to trade
:34:54. > :34:59.around the world freely, without waiting for Brussels to do some deal
:35:00. > :35:03.that would take many years? The problem is, striking trade deals
:35:04. > :35:07.takes many years, as we've seen. There are many examples likely where
:35:08. > :35:11.the EU has been trying to negotiate something, or the US has, and it
:35:12. > :35:16.takes years and then sometimes stumbles at the last hurdle. The
:35:17. > :35:21.idea that we can suddenly strike our own trade deals is nonsense, in my
:35:22. > :35:27.view. It will take years. We will be cutting off our nose to spite our
:35:28. > :35:31.face if we shun the EU. There are 500 million people in the EU,
:35:32. > :35:36.including Britain, so it goes down a bit if we come out. The point is, we
:35:37. > :35:41.can trade freely with that block currently with no constraints. You
:35:42. > :35:45.are cheering on Labour's Kia Starmer when he says, we are getting out of
:35:46. > :35:51.the EU, but we might be able to stay in the customs union? As Digby said,
:35:52. > :35:54.if you stay in the customs union, you cannot do your own trade deals.
:35:55. > :35:59.We heard from the Chancellor this morning that there was a middle
:36:00. > :36:02.position, where we get out of the customs union but over a period of
:36:03. > :36:06.years, to stop businesses having the worry is that you set out, there
:36:07. > :36:13.would be some sort of transition. Are you up for that? What business
:36:14. > :36:17.needs is certainty, boring predictability. And the next couple
:36:18. > :36:21.of years are going to deliver precisely the opposite. Anyone who
:36:22. > :36:25.thinks otherwise is for the birds. If it were set out as a timetable
:36:26. > :36:32.and everyone knew that by this date, this date and this date, things will
:36:33. > :36:37.happen, then I am up for that. We have to make sure that people
:36:38. > :36:41.understand, and this is so important, that the European union
:36:42. > :36:46.is big trading bloc, Nicola is right, but it is only one. This is
:36:47. > :36:56.Asia's century, not America's or Europe's. You have Brussels marching
:36:57. > :37:02.valiantly towards 1970. We need to hit our wagon to the world. A civil
:37:03. > :37:05.servant used a phrase many years ago - we don't want to chain ourselves
:37:06. > :37:13.to a corpse. He said that about Europe. The future is elsewhere,
:37:14. > :37:17.Nicola? The fact is, it is not only a huge area with 500 million people,
:37:18. > :37:22.but it is also very prosperous. You would have to do an awful lot of
:37:23. > :37:25.trade deals across many territories to actually replicate what we
:37:26. > :37:30.currently have, which is free access to a huge trade block with no
:37:31. > :37:34.constraints, and that has been beneficial to our economy. I want to
:37:35. > :37:38.be clear that you didn't want to leave, and you would love to reverse
:37:39. > :37:42.it now if you could, I suspect, but do you think it is possible to get
:37:43. > :37:47.out as the people voted for, but still have the advantages of the
:37:48. > :37:52.customs union? I think that is very. In or out? Yes. If you look at what
:37:53. > :37:58.happened during the election, there has been a huge thing about 80% of
:37:59. > :38:02.people voting for parties that want a Brexit. I don't think that's true.
:38:03. > :38:06.If you look at what happened, a lot of younger people voted who were
:38:07. > :38:09.expected to vote, and they are certainly not in favour of leaving
:38:10. > :38:15.the EU, the single market, the customs union or any of it. Would
:38:16. > :38:18.be, when you describe the advantages of the customs union, many people
:38:19. > :38:23.watching with thing, and therefore the end of your sentence would be,
:38:24. > :38:28.and that is why we should stay in, but you want to come out - why would
:38:29. > :38:34.you take such a risk? I think the negotiations over the next two years
:38:35. > :38:37.should be unique. We are the fifth or sixth biggest economy on earth.
:38:38. > :38:42.We ought to have a quality relationship with Europe for all the
:38:43. > :38:49.reasons that Nicola has said, and she's right, and at the same time
:38:50. > :38:53.reach out to the world. If it is achievable along with Philip
:38:54. > :39:00.Hammond's idea of feathering over the years, it is in Europe's
:39:01. > :39:04.interests. We need humility and less arrogance, but we have got to get
:39:05. > :39:09.there. Briefly, what is the nightmare, the fear, if we are not
:39:10. > :39:14.in the customs union? I believe it will be very detrimental to our
:39:15. > :39:18.economy, and also one thing: The fact of the matter is that Germany
:39:19. > :39:24.is in the EU. Germany does seven times as much trade with China as we
:39:25. > :39:29.do. The idea that the EU stops as trading with other countries is
:39:30. > :39:33.nonsense. A brief last sentence, Digby. The German example is
:39:34. > :39:40.rubbish. They dominate the EU and they use that as a way of enhancing
:39:41. > :39:47.their competitiveness in China. What is true, and you are right, that is
:39:48. > :39:53.coming out of the customs union done badly willed deny us the access we
:39:54. > :39:55.have spoken of, but done well, it will have the best of both worlds.
:39:56. > :40:00.Thank you both very much indeed. We say goodbye to viewers
:40:01. > :40:05.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20
:40:06. > :40:14.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello and welcome to
:40:15. > :40:15.Sunday Politics Wales. How does the Government's former top
:40:16. > :40:20.security adviser think the current And since Brexit means breakfast,
:40:21. > :40:25.as talks begin in Brussels, how do you like yours?
:40:26. > :40:30.Hard or soft? But first, the Tories and the DUP
:40:31. > :40:33.are hoping to do a deal Nothing's signed as yet of course,
:40:34. > :40:39.so are we heading for a strong and stable agreement
:40:40. > :40:43.or a coalition of chaos? Well, the last time we had
:40:44. > :40:46.a situation like this was in 1974. I've been speaking to several Welsh
:40:47. > :40:50.politicians who were in the Commons and in the Cabinet at the time,
:40:51. > :40:53.and still bear the scars, but these kind of deals go back
:40:54. > :40:58.much further than that. Lloyd George is remembered
:40:59. > :41:00.as a Prime Minister But he didn't always have
:41:01. > :41:04.to rely on a large majority After the 1918 election he joined
:41:05. > :41:08.forces in a coalition Coalition can work but
:41:09. > :41:14.minority government in the Mr Wilson, the first to arrive
:41:15. > :41:20.at Number 10 to begin his first full The last time we saw
:41:21. > :41:24.a minority UK government was after the election of February 1974
:41:25. > :41:28.with Harold Wilson sweeping into It really does point,
:41:29. > :41:34.in our straw polls, to the most exciting race we have
:41:35. > :41:37.seen since 1964. Labour had 301 votes
:41:38. > :41:42.to the Conservatives' 297. The man representing Wales around
:41:43. > :41:46.the Cabinet table during that time remembers that surviving
:41:47. > :41:49.from day-to-day for the government The Prime Minister would call
:41:50. > :41:56.on the Chief Whip at the beginning of each cabinet and the Chief Whip
:41:57. > :41:59.would give a report, are we going to Tuesday?
:42:00. > :42:04.I'm not sure. Wednesday?
:42:05. > :42:07.Doubtful. Most of them go away home
:42:08. > :42:12.on Thursday, we will pull through. The reporter was on a daily basis
:42:13. > :42:25.as our chances of survival. For a young newly elected
:42:26. > :42:29.Plaid Cymru MP, they were times when smaller parties
:42:30. > :42:32.could have a big impact but also At that time Parliament used to sit
:42:33. > :42:38.all-night sessions and the pressure you saw on some
:42:39. > :42:42.of the elderly members there, you saw the number of by-elections
:42:43. > :42:44.after deaths and by-elections with people
:42:45. > :42:47.off sick was phenomenal. People were being dragged
:42:48. > :42:51.in by ambulance at all hours of the night in order
:42:52. > :42:53.to be there to vote. Labour backbenchers at the time
:42:54. > :42:56.still bear the scars It meant living from day-to-day,
:42:57. > :43:05.every vote counted, There were lots of deals
:43:06. > :43:11.having to be struck. Ministers were unable
:43:12. > :43:15.to travel abroad in case Do you have recollections
:43:16. > :43:25.of people having Yes, I was stretchered
:43:26. > :43:29.in myself actually. I didn't quite get down to Wales,
:43:30. > :43:33.had to go Saint Mary's Hospital and they insisted, they had
:43:34. > :43:35.an ambulance to bring me in. I felt a total fraud
:43:36. > :43:38.because I felt better and I Halfway through that
:43:39. > :43:41.Parliament in 1976, Harold Wilson stood down and handed
:43:42. > :43:44.the reins to Cardiff MP, As you know, during
:43:45. > :43:49.the last few weeks But it couldn't last for ever
:43:50. > :43:54.and having relied on votes from Northern Irish MPs in the end
:43:55. > :43:58.they lost a vote of no-confidence and it all came down to one
:43:59. > :44:03.independent Ulster MP. He agreed to come over and having
:44:04. > :44:07.come he abstained in person. Had he voted, Callaghan would have
:44:08. > :44:10.survived the vote of no-confidence, there wouldn't have been
:44:11. > :44:14.the election in May, and knows? We might not have seen
:44:15. > :44:16.Mrs Thatcher as prime minister. The stakes are high
:44:17. > :44:19.and they will be high again. Back then the Prime Minister
:44:20. > :44:24.wasn't also facing the toughest set of negotiation
:44:25. > :44:27.for decades as Brexit talks Like her predecessor of 40 years ago
:44:28. > :44:31.these will be difficult Following the recent series
:44:32. > :44:37.of terrorist attacks, the question of what can be done
:44:38. > :44:42.to keep us safe is at the top Lord Peter Ricketts
:44:43. > :44:47.was the government's first He's been speaking to students
:44:48. > :44:52.in Cardiff this week, so Carl Roberts met him
:44:53. > :44:55.in the lecture theatre and began by asking why, until recently,
:44:56. > :44:58.there hadn't been a major attack I think that shows how
:44:59. > :45:03.effective our security services now are because in the meantime they had
:45:04. > :45:07.spotted and dealt with quite When I was ambassador in Paris,
:45:08. > :45:12.we had terrible attacks there on the Stade de France
:45:13. > :45:15.and in the bars and theatres of downtown Paris,
:45:16. > :45:17.with many people killed. There have been attacks
:45:18. > :45:21.in Nice and Berlin. Other European cities had been hit
:45:22. > :45:25.and we always knew that London or any other major city in the UK
:45:26. > :45:29.could be struck as well. But we have very competent
:45:30. > :45:32.security services, they In the seven years since you began
:45:33. > :45:39.as National Security Adviser how do you characterise the level
:45:40. > :45:45.of resource available because many people suggest essentially
:45:46. > :45:47.it has gone down. I do know that successive
:45:48. > :45:51.governments have invested enormous amounts of money in the security
:45:52. > :45:54.services, in technology, in We saw how quickly the police got
:45:55. > :45:59.to the incident particularly in London Bridge, within eight
:46:00. > :46:02.minutes I think. All that aside, I think,
:46:03. > :46:05.has been well resourced. Part of the problem
:46:06. > :46:08.is the threat keeps evolving. Ten years ago it was more elaborate
:46:09. > :46:12.attacks, carefully planned and if it is planned you can get
:46:13. > :46:15.information, you can pick up This latest wave of attacks have
:46:16. > :46:21.been DIY attacks, really. Get in a van, find a knife
:46:22. > :46:24.and you go and attack. It is very hard for
:46:25. > :46:28.the security services to get a handle on attacks that have got
:46:29. > :46:31.minimal planning and can happen What is the biggest
:46:32. > :46:35.challenge now you think? Is it stopping plots
:46:36. > :46:39.in their infancy or is it stopping the access to the information
:46:40. > :46:42.for people, perhaps, to make their own bombs or the
:46:43. > :46:45.information that is telling people to go out and do the things
:46:46. > :46:48.you have just described? First of all, there is
:46:49. > :46:52.getting more help from The people around those who might
:46:53. > :46:59.move suddenly to a violent act. These people, all
:47:00. > :47:06.surrounded with network. The authorities need the key signal
:47:07. > :47:11.that somebody who has maybe been expressing while the radical views
:47:12. > :47:14.is moving towards actually That is the most
:47:15. > :47:20.useful trigger of all. We really do need to have
:47:21. > :47:25.another push on getting the internet providers to take down
:47:26. > :47:31.content which might be used to They say they are doing their best
:47:32. > :47:36.but I think there is more there. Thirdly, there is
:47:37. > :47:37.international corporation. All of these attacks turn out
:47:38. > :47:40.to have had international links. People travelling,
:47:41. > :47:43.people communicating. I know from being ambassador
:47:44. > :47:45.in France how close the corporation is with services
:47:46. > :47:48.like the French and Germans. But there is always
:47:49. > :47:50.more to do there. We can attack in those three areas,
:47:51. > :47:54.we will reduce the risk. We will never reduce it to zero
:47:55. > :47:58.but we can mitigate it. We have seen incidents
:47:59. > :48:02.in Manchester and London, we know people have been
:48:03. > :48:04.radicalised in Cardiff. They have gone to Syria,
:48:05. > :48:09.they fought on the side of Isis. How do you think Cardiff
:48:10. > :48:12.compares to other UK cities All the major towns and cities
:48:13. > :48:19.of the UK are a threat and I don't think there is any way you can say
:48:20. > :48:23.it is safer here than I don't think there is any
:48:24. > :48:27.reason why Cardiff is more risky and dangerous than anywhere
:48:28. > :48:30.else but I think everyone has to be vigilant but equally,
:48:31. > :48:33.not to be put off going Early tomorrow morning a delegation
:48:34. > :48:41.from the UK will face the EU Commission across the table
:48:42. > :48:43.in Brussels and the Brexit Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, or even
:48:44. > :48:50.a red, white and blue Brexit?? In a moment, I hope my
:48:51. > :48:54.panellists will tell me. But first, we sent Cemlyn Davies
:48:55. > :48:57.to the kitchen, though we did need Conference, mark my words,
:48:58. > :49:06.we will make breakfast... I am trying to make my breakfast
:49:07. > :49:22.a success but what about Brexit? The countdown is on to the start
:49:23. > :49:25.of those talks about Do we want a so-called soft
:49:26. > :49:36.Brexit or a hard one? In basic terms, a hard Brexit
:49:37. > :49:40.would see Britain leave the European Union's single
:49:41. > :49:46.market and customs union. That would allow Britain
:49:47. > :49:48.to control the number of EU migrants coming here
:49:49. > :49:52.to live and work. But it would also lead to tariffs
:49:53. > :49:56.being imposed on our imports and exports, in the
:49:57. > :50:00.short term at least. A soft Brexit would see us retain
:50:01. > :50:06.closer ties with the European Union, including possibly some form
:50:07. > :50:13.of access to the EU's single market. As she outlined her 12 point vision
:50:14. > :50:16.in Lancaster House earlier this year, Theresa May suggested
:50:17. > :50:19.she wanted a hard Brexit but after the general election left
:50:20. > :50:24.with egg on her face could she be One senior Welsh Conservative
:50:25. > :50:30.backbench MP told me he and other Brexiteers are worried
:50:31. > :50:34.the Prime Minister's hard Brexit This week, the Welsh First Minister
:50:35. > :50:41.claims the election result means the Prime Minister has no
:50:42. > :50:46.mandate for a hard Brexit. The election has killed off
:50:47. > :50:51.the idea of a hard Brexit. There is much more
:50:52. > :50:52.of an understanding, the mood we're getting
:50:53. > :50:54.from Whitehall has changed. There is much more of
:50:55. > :50:57.an understanding that Brexit has to be good for people, good
:50:58. > :51:00.for business, that it maintains our links as strongly as possible
:51:01. > :51:03.with the rest of the EU. After the First Minister spoke,
:51:04. > :51:06.I asked a couple of Brexperts from Cardiff University
:51:07. > :51:10.how the general election has SInce the general election
:51:11. > :51:16.was presented as the Brexit election to provide the prime minister
:51:17. > :51:20.with that mandate to head forward to come out of the customs
:51:21. > :51:23.union, to come out of the single market, that mandate has
:51:24. > :51:31.certainly been challenged. If we are looking at who are
:51:32. > :51:33.the winners from the general election, it is those
:51:34. > :51:35.people who challenged that There are voices saying this makes
:51:36. > :51:43.a lack of agreement more possible. It is more likely we won't see
:51:44. > :51:47.an agreement between the UK and between the European Union simply
:51:48. > :51:50.because of the lack of a clear position that the UK
:51:51. > :51:54.Government has at the moment. Welsh Conservatives leader
:51:55. > :51:57.Andrew RT Davies was a He believes Theresa
:51:58. > :52:02.May should stick to the principles she set out
:52:03. > :52:05.in her Lancaster House specch. There will a whole range of issues
:52:06. > :52:09.that were debated in the general election and many commentators
:52:10. > :52:12.towards the end of the general election said,
:52:13. > :52:14.this hasn't turned into the Brexit election the Conservatives
:52:15. > :52:16.were hoping it would be. There was many other issues
:52:17. > :52:18.discussed and rightly so because it I do think from the Conservatives
:52:19. > :52:23.point of view it is right those 12 principles are the ones that guide
:52:24. > :52:26.the negotiating team going into the discussions
:52:27. > :52:28.initially. As we move forward in those
:52:29. > :52:31.negotiations, obviously, the Prime Minister and the government
:52:32. > :52:35.are committed to listening. A year on from the referendum
:52:36. > :52:38.there are more cracks than ever Negotiations with the EU
:52:39. > :52:49.will begin tomorrow. Joining me now to tell us what route
:52:50. > :52:52.the talks should take are the former MEP and current AM,
:52:53. > :52:56.Labour's Eluned Morgan, and Professor Patrick Minford,
:52:57. > :52:58.who was an adviser to Margaret Thatcher and
:52:59. > :53:13.a leading Brexit economist. Thank your for joining me. The talks
:53:14. > :53:20.are finally getting underway now. Early discussions will be EU
:53:21. > :53:26.citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU and the payment. How do
:53:27. > :53:31.you think they are going to go? Part of the problem is there is such a
:53:32. > :53:34.lack of clarity now in terms of what the Prime Minister can deliver for
:53:35. > :53:40.Britain that these will be talks about talks. The clock is ticking
:53:41. > :53:44.and within two years we're going to crash out of the European Union
:53:45. > :53:49.unless you get a deal. The problem is, they have made it clear despite
:53:50. > :53:54.the protestations initially of the UK Government, they want to focus on
:53:55. > :53:57.what the divorce bill will be. They said they will not negotiate what
:53:58. > :54:02.the future relationship will look like, they want to sort out the
:54:03. > :54:05.citizens rights of the European Union, people who were living here
:54:06. > :54:12.and working here but also they want to sort out Northern Ireland. In the
:54:13. > :54:17.current mix with the DUP saying they will not have a hard border with
:54:18. > :54:22.Southern Ireland, that throws that whole negotiation into a very
:54:23. > :54:28.complicated situation. If they go for a soft border in Northern
:54:29. > :54:33.Ireland, and we have a hard border, that will have huge and difficult
:54:34. > :54:37.consequences for our ports in particular in Wales. We will be
:54:38. > :54:44.pressing in particular those Tory MPs who are representing ports in
:54:45. > :54:47.Wales in Pembrokeshire, people who only narrowly got in, we will be
:54:48. > :54:57.holding them to account and making sure we don't want a soft Brexit. No
:54:58. > :55:00.customs union. There is a difficulty in the context of beginning the
:55:01. > :55:03.talks at this time. Is it more difficult than it would have been
:55:04. > :55:10.before the election? These negotiations have been due to
:55:11. > :55:15.start and now finally they are starting. Actually, it is going to
:55:16. > :55:22.be about detail. The point about soft Brexit as it is called is it is
:55:23. > :55:26.a status quo. It is protectionism, regulation May be you, no control of
:55:27. > :55:34.our migration. People didn't vote for that. 80% or whatever that it
:55:35. > :55:40.was that backed the two main parties voted for Brexit. Soft Brexit is no
:55:41. > :55:51.Brexit at all. Hard Brexit is Brexit. The point about hard Brexit
:55:52. > :55:57.or what Theresa May has said... We leave.
:55:58. > :56:00.I think in fact the detail in negotiation will be about a trade
:56:01. > :56:07.agreement which is easier for the EU to do than to talk about soft
:56:08. > :56:12.Brexit. That is just a model. A trade agreement with deal with the
:56:13. > :56:16.details and it will be... The point about a Brexit, the way Theresa May
:56:17. > :56:22.has talked about it is prices will come down, we will get rid of
:56:23. > :56:24.protectionism, there will be competition and our rural regulation
:56:25. > :56:32.and control of our borders. Let's go through some of the issues.
:56:33. > :56:38.On ports, you are saying for Brexit means for Brexit. A hard border
:56:39. > :56:43.between Northern Ireland and the republic. They're all sorts of ways
:56:44. > :56:48.deal with Ireland. A full Brexit would mean that as a line between an
:56:49. > :56:53.EU country, the Republic of Ireland, and a non-EU country the Northern
:56:54. > :56:57.Ireland. That could have problems for ports in Wales. You are getting
:56:58. > :57:02.down to a level of detail that can be handled.
:57:03. > :57:10.It is about the nature of our trade relations. But the details matter.
:57:11. > :57:16.They can be handled. There are all sorts of ways of dealing with these.
:57:17. > :57:21.Many people don't understand that customers are computerised. People
:57:22. > :57:26.can travel across borders very easily through computerised
:57:27. > :57:29.requirements. They don't need visas. All these things people are talking
:57:30. > :57:35.about, they don't understand modern customs which I computerised. Those
:57:36. > :57:39.things that people are talking about our way down the list in terms of
:57:40. > :57:43.detail that can be handled. The really key things are what trade
:57:44. > :57:49.relationships will we have the EU. What sort of Harris will be put on
:57:50. > :57:54.the rest of the world? Those tariffs could be damaging to agriculture. We
:57:55. > :57:58.could be looking at at the end of two years for not crashing out, but
:57:59. > :58:05.a phased transition. The Chancellor saying this morning that phased exit
:58:06. > :58:11.on a trade deal, that could cushion the blow. What we have to remember
:58:12. > :58:17.is the situation, however bad it is for the UK, is going to be worse for
:58:18. > :58:21.Wales. Two thirds of our exports compared to 40% of UK exports go to
:58:22. > :58:26.the European Union. Whatever it is we need to really make sure that
:58:27. > :58:31.those jobs are protected. That has got to be our priority. It has got
:58:32. > :58:38.to be about jobs first Brexit. That is what will matter to people. On
:58:39. > :58:44.top of that, what is important is we ensure that we keep the kind of
:58:45. > :58:46.standards it environmental standards, health and safety
:58:47. > :58:50.standards, social standards that Patrick is keen to tear up. I am
:58:51. > :58:54.anxious to make sure we keep those because those are fundamental to the
:58:55. > :58:58.kind of society and trade deal we want. We have heard the Chancellor
:58:59. > :59:03.this morning talking about the importance of the service industry
:59:04. > :59:09.of the City of London being looked after in terms of Brexit. 11% of tax
:59:10. > :59:13.comes from there. Is there a concern that when there is so much emphasis
:59:14. > :59:16.put on those elements of the role of Wales and the increased importance
:59:17. > :59:21.of exposed to the EU from Wales will be overlooked?
:59:22. > :59:26.Is not at all. What Eluned Morgan has put forward is the protectionist
:59:27. > :59:31.fallacy. It is good for us to have protection of its manufacturers.
:59:32. > :59:40.Whilst manufacturing is well beating that world beating. -- is world
:59:41. > :59:46.beating. Nor does it want tariffs. We would trade freely with the rest
:59:47. > :59:52.of the world. The object of the so-called South -- hard Brexit is
:59:53. > :59:58.free trade. Theresa May fought her policies on the basis of free trade.
:59:59. > :00:02.Wales will benefit from free trade because prices will come down, free
:00:03. > :00:06.trade is good for consumers. There are an awful lot of French consumers
:00:07. > :00:13.and businesses. Businesses can compete. But prices will come down
:00:14. > :00:19.for farmers, the price of lamb and beef. Certainly true. Farmers should
:00:20. > :00:24.not be afraid of world competition because this is good for the
:00:25. > :00:28.consumer. We can help farmers directly at much less cost than we
:00:29. > :00:34.can in the common agricultural policy. It is all about the detail.
:00:35. > :00:39.Competition for producers and what help we give in the help of
:00:40. > :00:45.transition packages to adjust to have a more competitive world. We
:00:46. > :00:50.are not going to tear standards. That sounds OK. If we can give
:00:51. > :00:56.support to farmers, no tariffs on steel and manufacturing.
:00:57. > :00:59.Look at the reality. Prices has gone up, inflation has gone up, it is
:01:00. > :01:04.affecting what people pay in their shop. We were promised all kinds of
:01:05. > :01:09.things. We were promised three and ?50 million extra a week for the
:01:10. > :01:14.NHS. Nano that is going to happen. People were sold a pup when they
:01:15. > :01:21.voted for Brexit. We have to hold those people to account. What is key
:01:22. > :01:25.for me is what Patrick is talking about is a theoretical model. What I
:01:26. > :01:30.think is important is we ensure that we protect them I don't think you
:01:31. > :01:34.are going to protect farmers, you are sacrificing farmers. You are
:01:35. > :01:38.sacrificing the manufacturing industry by pursuing your model
:01:39. > :01:42.which is that if we drop our tariffs everyone else is going to drop
:01:43. > :01:46.theirs. That is not the reality of how the world works. More than that,
:01:47. > :01:53.the World Trade Organisation would not allow them to do that
:01:54. > :01:58.unilaterally. What you want to see might be lovely but what others will
:01:59. > :02:02.allow you to do would be different. The whole point of going to the
:02:03. > :02:09.world trade organisation draws is we can get rid of our tariffs. The
:02:10. > :02:15.protection we put in our industry is an own goal, it raises prices to the
:02:16. > :02:19.consumer. This whole point about the devaluation, that is something that
:02:20. > :02:23.is completely separate. When you have a big regime change you need
:02:24. > :02:32.have a Dee Valley ocean. We always have this when we're doing new
:02:33. > :02:35.things. -- the valuation. That is a completely separate thing and in the
:02:36. > :02:39.long run that will go away. The key thing that will stay is the greater
:02:40. > :02:46.competition in the economy and the benefits to the consumer of lower
:02:47. > :02:49.prices. She wants to protect, protect, protect. She wants to
:02:50. > :02:52.protect our farmers and manufacturers. They don't need it.
:02:53. > :02:54.That's it from me ahead of what promises to be another
:02:55. > :02:58.You can follow it all on our Twitter feed.
:02:59. > :03:12.-- for the victims' family so that they can have their say. Thanks to
:03:13. > :03:22.all of you. Even if the inferno in London had
:03:23. > :03:25.never happened, this would have been The Brexit negotiations finally
:03:26. > :03:29.begin in Brussels tomorrow - will ministers change
:03:30. > :03:34.their position? The Queen's Speech,
:03:35. > :03:35.which had to be delayed, but can the Government
:03:36. > :03:58.get its legislative agenda Still with me, Steve, Julia and Tom.
:03:59. > :04:04.Steve, Brexit, as if it is just a small thing this week. We have heard
:04:05. > :04:06.from the Chancellor this morning and from Andrea Leadsom - do you detect
:04:07. > :04:12.a shift in Government debate or still alive -- in Government
:04:13. > :04:15.approach or still a lively debate? Philip Hammond now is in a stronger
:04:16. > :04:22.position than he could ever have dreams who would be in -- he would
:04:23. > :04:26.be an before the election result, so tonally, we have him now confidently
:04:27. > :04:32.saying that the focus must be on the economy, on having some kind of deal
:04:33. > :04:37.whereby there are not bureaucrats blocking the movement of goods and
:04:38. > :04:42.so on, but beyond that, it's not entirely clear how he plans to use
:04:43. > :04:47.this new political muscularity. I think that will become clearer as
:04:48. > :04:53.the talks begin, but at this point, it all still seems fairly vague.
:04:54. > :05:02.Labour's position and the Government's as these talks begin
:05:03. > :05:05.tomorrow. Don't you smell a rat? Do you think, I know what they are rock
:05:06. > :05:09.to, they wanted ter at the referendum? It is almost irrelevant
:05:10. > :05:14.what the Government says and what they are thinking of doing. What
:05:15. > :05:18.matters is what is on the table, hence the nonsense about soft Brexit
:05:19. > :05:23.and hard Brexit. Soc Brexit is not Brexit and hard Brexit is not an
:05:24. > :05:31.option. Guy the Hofstadter did the work of Nigel Farage last week when
:05:32. > :05:38.he said that we could remain but lose the rebate. Even a slow
:05:39. > :05:42.Brexit... No, no, at the end of March in 2019 we will be out of the
:05:43. > :05:51.EU. That is what happens. There is a question of transition deals, which
:05:52. > :05:54.is fine. But we do not know which Government will be in power at the
:05:55. > :05:59.time, but will they obey the will of the people as expressed in the EU
:06:00. > :06:04.referendum, which is out of the free market, no free movement? This
:06:05. > :06:10.argument is irrelevant, I think. Tom, has a lot changed? Remit yes.
:06:11. > :06:14.The first compromise the Government made on Friday, which was almost
:06:15. > :06:18.unreported on Friday because we had so much more to talk about, Grenfell
:06:19. > :06:23.Tower being the major one, but the Government agreed to go by the EU
:06:24. > :06:32.timetable, which is to sort out the divorce and then move the trade
:06:33. > :06:36.deal. The other thing that changed is the composition of the House of
:06:37. > :06:42.Commons. There is no majority for Theresa May's version of Brexit. I
:06:43. > :06:47.think the area where there will be room for manoeuvre is immigration.
:06:48. > :06:51.It won't be the customs union. There will be an argument about the
:06:52. > :07:02.relationship, but it will be to soften up this call from Theresa May
:07:03. > :07:07.for immigration controls. Jobs first is a change in the Government
:07:08. > :07:10.position, isn't it? Tom is right about immigration. I was told that
:07:11. > :07:15.the decision to include student numbers in the immigration total was
:07:16. > :07:19.her view and hers alone. I think that will be dropped now, because
:07:20. > :07:26.the Cabinet feels strong enough to assert their different view. Every
:07:27. > :07:30.single member of that cabinet I am told apart from her did not want
:07:31. > :07:35.that. There is an example of refocusing. At the moment, it is not
:07:36. > :07:44.clear where that will lead. The talks will begin, I think, in an
:07:45. > :07:51.messy way. -- in a messy way. I have spoken to Tory MPs on the Remain
:07:52. > :07:57.site who wonder if we won't still be in in 2019. It is not possible. The
:07:58. > :08:03.legal process has begun. We are out of the EU at the end of that period.
:08:04. > :08:08.Transition could mean it feels very like we are still in. All this talk
:08:09. > :08:13.about compromise and so on, it is between members of the Cabinet and
:08:14. > :08:21.UK political parties. What matters is what is on the table and how the
:08:22. > :08:27.British people react. During these talks, the Government will have to
:08:28. > :08:35.compromise if they don't get to have their cake and eat it. Brexit will
:08:36. > :08:41.be soft. Do you think there is arithmetic that will bring a
:08:42. > :08:44.dramatic change? Bhui report this as internal machinations in the Tory
:08:45. > :08:53.Party in the Cabinet. It is what you can get through. We report this. She
:08:54. > :09:03.framed this election as a mandate for her version of Brexit. When she
:09:04. > :09:11.didn't get that mandate, I know it has become a cliche could, -- it has
:09:12. > :09:15.become a cliche, but she did not get the mandate cheese. Let's move on to
:09:16. > :09:20.the Queen's speech. That would be a huge story if it were not for fire
:09:21. > :09:23.and Brexit. This is a Government without a majority vote of Andrea
:09:24. > :09:35.Leadsom said, we are just elating next year's Queen's speech. Do you
:09:36. > :09:37.buy that? There will not be won because they do not know whether
:09:38. > :09:48.they will have the numbers to support it. Also, one Queen's speech
:09:49. > :09:54.and the Parliament business will be taken up by the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:55. > :10:01.There will be no legislative time left for the remnants left Theresa
:10:02. > :10:10.May's manifesto. She feels this desperate need to try. There will be
:10:11. > :10:15.a housing will, no doubt and one or two other things. Other things are
:10:16. > :10:17.dead in the water, grammar schools, for example. Some of the more
:10:18. > :10:25.interventionist policies are forever gone. Some people might well come an
:10:26. > :10:29.end to the ongoing new legislation about every topic which does not
:10:30. > :10:32.make anyone's life better. We don't know the details of the deal with
:10:33. > :10:36.the DUP, but we know it will be focused some of it on Northern
:10:37. > :10:43.Ireland itself. There is a chance that they see themselves as fighting
:10:44. > :10:49.austerity in the UK. You can't just have a set of policies for Northern
:10:50. > :10:53.Ireland to keep the DUP on board which will not apply if they seem
:10:54. > :11:03.rather rosy and benevolent to the rest of the UK. The Barnett Formula
:11:04. > :11:07.requires more spending in Wales and Scotland if you increase it for
:11:08. > :11:16.Northern Ireland. It is that whatever is spent in England, there
:11:17. > :11:20.are ramifications for the other nations of the UK. They are close to
:11:21. > :11:24.impotence, and the only question that will be asked is, can we get
:11:25. > :11:28.this through? Therefore, they will get it through because they won't
:11:29. > :11:33.put anything in that could be defeated. A last thought about the
:11:34. > :11:37.fire, then. However much we say these events are bigger, I have a
:11:38. > :11:43.feeling that the fire will dominate when MPs gather. Have ministers done
:11:44. > :11:48.enough, and have Labour done enough to do themselves from some of the
:11:49. > :11:53.protests, to avoid some of the political risks involved? In the
:11:54. > :11:58.short term, Downing Street is beginning to do enough. The Prime
:11:59. > :12:01.Minister is meeting relatives every day now, which is beginning to abate
:12:02. > :12:08.the political crisis. The great mess that will continue is that Labour
:12:09. > :12:13.have managed to turn this into an anti-austerity issue, and that will
:12:14. > :12:16.live on. The organisation has been appalling. This is about poor
:12:17. > :12:22.people's lives, at the end of the day. The way it has been politicised
:12:23. > :12:27.they think is completely wrong. It also raises questions about who is
:12:28. > :12:31.responsible for what. The instinct is to blame Theresa May for the
:12:32. > :12:35.whole lot, something that wouldn't have happened two months ago. What
:12:36. > :12:41.about the role of the local authority? What about the
:12:42. > :12:46.invisibility of the local authority afterwards? Which bit of our
:12:47. > :12:51.Government is responsible for what is? That is the cause of many crises
:12:52. > :12:59.in this country. It is ruled by committee and the bug doesn't stop
:13:00. > :13:03.with anyone. I thought, in many ways, for those of us in our line of
:13:04. > :13:07.work, as it were, the most painful question beyond the horrible human
:13:08. > :13:14.tragedy was to hear people say, we don't know who to ask. That was a
:13:15. > :13:21.failure by the local council. And you put it to Andrea Leadsom. I
:13:22. > :13:23.don't think making it the Prime Minister will reassure people. Thank
:13:24. > :13:26.you all very much indeed. The Daily Politics will be back
:13:27. > :13:30.on BBC Two at noon tomorrow, and Andrew will be back
:13:31. > :13:32.here at the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:33. > :13:35.it's the Sunday Politics.