0:00:38 > 0:00:39Good morning, everyone.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44Welcome to the Sunday Politics - your essential guide to the biggest
0:00:44 > 0:00:45political stories of the week.
0:00:45 > 0:00:50Coming up on today's show...
0:00:50 > 0:00:52Coming up on today's show...
0:00:52 > 0:00:55of a breakthrough on Brexit?
0:00:55 > 0:00:59Or, after a slightly torrid week, is she in danger of being
0:00:59 > 0:01:00overtaken by events?
0:01:00 > 0:01:03The ex-Labour minister Alan Milburn quits as chairman
0:01:03 > 0:01:05of the Social Mobility Commission, saying he has "little hope"
0:01:05 > 0:01:07the current government can make the "necessary" progress.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09What does this mean for a Prime Minister who vowed
0:01:09 > 0:01:12to fight against the "burning injustice" of inequality?
0:01:12 > 0:01:15And, we speak to the academic who's carrying out economic "wargaming"
0:01:15 > 0:01:21scenarios for the Labour party, in the event it wins power.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23People are going to trust us with their jobs and their pensions
0:01:23 > 0:01:25and their livelihoods.
0:01:25 > 0:01:29We've got to show we know what we're doing.
0:01:29 > 0:01:30Later in the programme... know what we're doing.
0:01:30 > 0:01:33Alun Cairns on why he thinks Wales' ports can help us
0:01:33 > 0:01:35benefit from Brexit, and with five new trade
0:01:35 > 0:01:37offices opening soon.
0:01:37 > 0:01:39And does Wales need more of a presence overseas?
0:01:46 > 0:01:48Yes, all that coming up in the programme.
0:01:48 > 0:01:52And to help guide me through all the week's
0:01:52 > 0:01:54twists and turns, I'm joined by Tom Newton Dunn,
0:01:54 > 0:01:57Isabel Oakeshott, and Steve Richards.
0:01:57 > 0:02:00Now, the breaking news this morning is the resignation of Alan Milburn -
0:02:00 > 0:02:02the ex-Labour minister who, for the last five years, has chaired
0:02:02 > 0:02:03the Social Mobility Commission.
0:02:03 > 0:02:05He says the Government is too preoccupied with Brexit
0:02:05 > 0:02:07to focus on social justice.
0:02:07 > 0:02:12We'll be assessing the significance of that in a moment.
0:02:12 > 0:02:15But first, if that relationship has turned sour for the Prime Minister,
0:02:15 > 0:02:20it wasn't the only one this week.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23Like all relationships, our liaison with our European neighbours
0:02:23 > 0:02:26has had its ups and downs.
0:02:26 > 0:02:30Theresa May wants a deep and special partnership after Brexit.
0:02:30 > 0:02:34Thus far, money has been the main obstacle to
0:02:34 > 0:02:37an amicable divorce.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40This week, a possible breakthrough.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43He once said "the EU could go whistle if they
0:02:43 > 0:02:47asked for too much," now he's practically dancing with joy.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50It's a fantastic opportunity now to get going.
0:02:50 > 0:02:53Others are always harder to please.
0:02:53 > 0:02:56It is not worth nearly 50 billion sterling.
0:02:56 > 0:03:02No deal is better than a bad deal and this is a very bad deal indeed.
0:03:02 > 0:03:04Brussels may be on board with the divorce bill but
0:03:04 > 0:03:07there's trouble over the Irish border.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10If the UK offer is unacceptable for Ireland, it will
0:03:10 > 0:03:14also be unacceptable for the EU.
0:03:14 > 0:03:16also be unacceptable for the EU.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18Reports suggest Stormont could be given more power to agree bespoke
0:03:18 > 0:03:20trading arrangements with the Republic but that, in turn,
0:03:20 > 0:03:24enraged Theresa May's partners in Parliament.
0:03:24 > 0:03:27The DUP could walk out of their marriage of convenience
0:03:27 > 0:03:30with the Tories if the Government allows Northern Ireland to diverge
0:03:30 > 0:03:35from the rest of the UK.
0:03:35 > 0:03:38If there is any hint that in order to placate Dublin and the EU,
0:03:38 > 0:03:41they are prepared to have Northern Ireland treated differently
0:03:41 > 0:03:47than the rest of the United Kingdom, then they can't rely on our vote.
0:03:47 > 0:03:49But it was the "special relationship" that came
0:03:49 > 0:03:52under most strain.
0:03:52 > 0:03:54As Donald Trump re-tweeted Islamophobia videos,
0:03:54 > 0:03:57posted by the far right group, Britain First.
0:03:57 > 0:04:01Denounced by Downing Street, the President took to Twitter again,
0:04:01 > 0:04:03telling Theresa May directly, "Don't focus on me,
0:04:03 > 0:04:07we are doing just fine."
0:04:07 > 0:04:11The Prime Minister on a surprise trip to the Middle East was plunged
0:04:11 > 0:04:12into a very public row.
0:04:12 > 0:04:14I'm very clear that re-tweeting from Britain
0:04:14 > 0:04:18First was the wrong thing to do.
0:04:18 > 0:04:24The May-Trump mini break in the UK might be off.
0:04:24 > 0:04:27I certainly don't think he should be should be coming next year.
0:04:27 > 0:04:30Next year is supposed to be a happy event for the Royal family.
0:04:30 > 0:04:32We certainly don't want Trump turning up in the middle
0:04:32 > 0:04:33of all of that.
0:04:33 > 0:04:36Meanwhile, Labour leader and GQ magazine cover model declared
0:04:36 > 0:04:40himself to be an enemy of greedy bankers.
0:04:40 > 0:04:44So, when they say, we're a threat, they're right.
0:04:44 > 0:04:46We are a threat to a damaging and failed
0:04:46 > 0:04:50system that's rigged for the few.
0:04:50 > 0:04:53The Prime Minister's closest political
0:04:53 > 0:04:55friend stood in for her at the dispatch box on Wednesday
0:04:55 > 0:04:57while she was abroad but fresh questions emerged later
0:04:57 > 0:05:00in the week about whether he'd used a Parliamentary
0:05:00 > 0:05:05computer to view pornography some nine years ago.
0:05:05 > 0:05:08Theresa May will meet be EU Commission President
0:05:08 > 0:05:10Jean-Claude Juncker tomorrow.
0:05:10 > 0:05:12They will discuss the revised offer on the divorce
0:05:12 > 0:05:15bill and whether talks can now move on to trade
0:05:15 > 0:05:16post-Brexit.
0:05:16 > 0:05:19It has not been an easy relationship with leaks from
0:05:19 > 0:05:21previous meetings finding their way into the German press.
0:05:21 > 0:05:31Hopefully, they can put all of that behind them.
0:05:32 > 0:05:36So, we will talk through one of the top stories for the week with our
0:05:36 > 0:05:41panel in the studio. We are going to be looking ahead to what is
0:05:41 > 0:05:45happening in Brussels. The Prime Minister is going over for a working
0:05:45 > 0:05:48lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker tomorrow. We are always saying we
0:05:48 > 0:05:52have reached a critical stage in the negotiations.Is it a critical
0:05:52 > 0:06:00point? It is. It is endgame of chapter one. There are two chapters,
0:06:00 > 0:06:04divorce and then trade. This is the end of the first half, at the 43rd
0:06:04 > 0:06:11minute. It is probably 0-0. We need to get over the line and into
0:06:11 > 0:06:16half-time and into the second half. Wyatt is so critical is the Prime
0:06:16 > 0:06:20Minister, in the next few days, she cannot wait till the 14th or 15th of
0:06:20 > 0:06:27December, have to choose to govern is to choose. One side is saying
0:06:27 > 0:06:31this is what we will act set to move on to the second phase and the
0:06:31 > 0:06:36Eurosceptics will say, we will not access to any of that. She has to
0:06:36 > 0:06:44get off the fence. One is what they will do about easy JN the other
0:06:44 > 0:06:50about the Irish border. To divert or not diverged?This is only the end
0:06:50 > 0:06:55of the first half of the process. If the EU agrees we can move onto the
0:06:55 > 0:07:02second half. That is not guaranteed, is it?Tom's analogy, I will not go
0:07:02 > 0:07:10too far with it because I'm not a football expert. Brexiteers feel it
0:07:10 > 0:07:19is more like 1-0 to the EU. There is a circulation today, leave means
0:07:19 > 0:07:24leave, which is signed by eminent business people and academics. Only
0:07:24 > 0:07:28a few MPs, about five of them on now. We were discussing this earlier
0:07:28 > 0:07:33and Tom made the point it is quite a hostile thing for a Tory MP to sign
0:07:33 > 0:07:37a letter like this. Many more agree with the contents of the letter,
0:07:37 > 0:07:43which sets out the set of conditions the PM must not agree to, in their
0:07:43 > 0:07:48view, must not capitulate to as the negotiation goes forward. It is
0:07:48 > 0:07:53about when free movement of people ends and we retain the power to go
0:07:53 > 0:07:58to WTO if all else fails.We be discussing this further with our
0:07:58 > 0:08:03guests and find out what the EU had think about it. The other big news
0:08:03 > 0:08:06of the morning is that Alan Milburn resigned from the social mobility
0:08:06 > 0:08:18commission. He told and remarked earlier why. -- Andrew Marr.
0:08:18 > 0:08:21In various social mobility roles, I've served a Labour Prime Minister,
0:08:21 > 0:08:23a coalition Prime Minister, and now, a Conservative one.
0:08:23 > 0:08:26I've done so because I care deeply about the issue and I believe
0:08:26 > 0:08:28that it matters profoundly to the country.
0:08:28 > 0:08:30I've reached the conclusion, sadly, that with the current government,
0:08:30 > 0:08:33there is little if any hope of progress being made
0:08:33 > 0:08:34towards the fairer Britain that the Prime Minister
0:08:34 > 0:08:35has talked about.
0:08:35 > 0:08:37The Government, probably for understandable reasons,
0:08:37 > 0:08:39is focused on Brexit, and seems to lack the bandwidth
0:08:39 > 0:08:42to be able to translate the rhetoric of healing social division
0:08:42 > 0:08:47and promoting social justice into a reality.
0:08:47 > 0:08:50That is a pretty damning statement, the Government does not have the
0:08:50 > 0:08:58bandwidth to do with anything other than Brexit.It is true. Brexit is
0:08:58 > 0:09:02sucking up all political energy much practical energy in Whitehall.
0:09:02 > 0:09:07Beyond that, the significance of this is not huge. I think these
0:09:07 > 0:09:12commissions float uneasily in government. If you make policy on
0:09:12 > 0:09:16social justice, you can do that within a government department if
0:09:16 > 0:09:21you are serious about it. I think it was set up partly with good
0:09:21 > 0:09:24intentions in the coalition period, partly to break off the Blairites
0:09:24 > 0:09:30from Labour and get them involved with these so called modernising
0:09:30 > 0:09:35Conservative project, and the fact that it is ending, I don't think in
0:09:35 > 0:09:39itself is significant. But he is absolutely... By the way they were
0:09:39 > 0:09:44never entirely clear on policy terms. The fact he said I am not a
0:09:44 > 0:09:50status quo nor am I with Theresa May, what are going to be the
0:09:50 > 0:09:55mediating agencies? There are some huge issues to address. Whether this
0:09:55 > 0:09:59was the appropriate way to do it in the first place, I have doubts about
0:09:59 > 0:10:01it.Thank you for that.
0:10:01 > 0:10:04Well, to pick up on all of that, I'm joined by the former
0:10:04 > 0:10:06Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
0:10:06 > 0:10:11Thank you for coming in. Let's start with the claim by Alan Milburn that
0:10:11 > 0:10:15the Government does not have the time or capacity to do anything
0:10:15 > 0:10:20other than Brexit. That must be a concern to you as well.I think he
0:10:20 > 0:10:25is wrong. I share his concern about social mobility. When I was the
0:10:25 > 0:10:28leader of the Conservative Party used to make speeches about the
0:10:28 > 0:10:32British dream and the importance of social mobility. There is always
0:10:32 > 0:10:43more to be done but we have actually made a lot of progress. Can I give
0:10:43 > 0:10:45you some examples? We would all agree that education is key to
0:10:45 > 0:10:48social mobility. We have 1.9 million children now, 1.9 million children
0:10:48 > 0:10:53more than in 2010 in good or outstanding schools.His complaint
0:10:53 > 0:10:58was not that nothing has been done since 2010 but nothing can be done
0:10:58 > 0:11:05now.It is still happening. Income inequality is at its lowest level
0:11:05 > 0:11:12for 30 years. More taxes being paid than under the Labour years. One of
0:11:12 > 0:11:17the worst things that can happen to a child is to live in a workless
0:11:17 > 0:11:21household. The number of workless households has been shrinking. And
0:11:21 > 0:11:28implement is at its lowest level since 1975.-- unemployment. Theresa
0:11:28 > 0:11:33May, when she became Prime Minister last year, said this is a country of
0:11:33 > 0:11:38burning injustice.It is. There is always more to be done. You say it
0:11:38 > 0:11:42is in the past. This morning we have had an announcement that a
0:11:42 > 0:11:46considerable amount of extra money will be devoted in helping children
0:11:46 > 0:11:53facing mental health challenges in our schools. That is important as
0:11:53 > 0:11:56well in relation to social mobility. Of course there is more to be done.
0:11:56 > 0:11:59I think quite a lot of progress has been made on social mobility and
0:11:59 > 0:12:05should not forget that.Let's move on to wrecks it. You will have read
0:12:05 > 0:12:12reports that she will offer a divorce bill somewhere between 40
0:12:12 > 0:12:15billion and 50 billion euros, maybe slightly more. You said back in
0:12:15 > 0:12:19April that you would be astonished if the bill was anything like 50
0:12:19 > 0:12:25billion euros for the you must be producer prize.We all started off
0:12:25 > 0:12:34with aspirations. -- you must be pretty surprised. I do not know what
0:12:34 > 0:12:39the sum will be. Whatever it is it will be a fraction of the amount we
0:12:39 > 0:12:43have paid into the European Union over the last 40 years and would pay
0:12:43 > 0:12:49into the European Union for the next 40.You are now fairly relaxed about
0:12:49 > 0:12:56something around this mark?I have confidence in the Prime Minister and
0:12:56 > 0:12:59David Davis. I want to let them decide what is the best deal. I'm
0:12:59 > 0:13:05confident we'll get a good deal. I'm confident in the Prime Minister and
0:13:05 > 0:13:11David Davies.You know the more money we spend on the divorce the
0:13:11 > 0:13:21more bashes nevertheless many we have to spend on other things. Our
0:13:21 > 0:13:24guest last week felt it had to be delivered to keep faith in the
0:13:24 > 0:13:30process.In the budget a few days ago the Government promised more
0:13:30 > 0:13:36than an extra £350 million for the health service, running into almost
0:13:36 > 0:13:43£2 billion.They did not promise that in the budget?Over time, more
0:13:43 > 0:13:47money will be available when we are out. These payments, I don't know
0:13:47 > 0:13:51what the sum would be, are going to be spread out over many years. The
0:13:51 > 0:13:55annual bill will not be anything like that. In the end there will be
0:13:55 > 0:14:02more money to spend on the health service and other desirable things
0:14:02 > 0:14:04because we will not have to make this very large, annual contribution
0:14:04 > 0:14:10we were making.You have always been a committed Eurosceptic. Do not
0:14:10 > 0:14:14worry that the European Union seem to be having it their way? They
0:14:14 > 0:14:18wanted to discuss divorce before the trade deals. We agreed to that. The
0:14:18 > 0:14:24divorce bill seems to have gone up substantially since Theresa May was
0:14:24 > 0:14:26speaking in her Florence speech. They are getting what they want as
0:14:26 > 0:14:32we are going through the process and we seem to be capitulating.I do not
0:14:32 > 0:14:38think that is fair. There is a huge amount of posturing, which always
0:14:38 > 0:14:41goes on in negotiations. The approach of the European Union is in
0:14:41 > 0:14:48breach of Article 50. Article 50 says the arrangements for the
0:14:48 > 0:14:52departure of a member state have to take into account the future
0:14:52 > 0:14:56relationship of that state with the European Union. You cannot take
0:14:56 > 0:15:00something into account if you are not prepared to talk about it. They
0:15:00 > 0:15:06are in breach of Article 50. That is the approach they have chosen. I am
0:15:06 > 0:15:12confident. I think we will move forward to the next phase, to pursue
0:15:12 > 0:15:15Tom's analogy, I hope they will not be injury time at the end of the
0:15:15 > 0:15:27first half and I hope we will get an agreement this month and then we can
0:15:27 > 0:15:30start talking turkey.Do you agree with the leave means leave letter in
0:15:30 > 0:15:33the paper today without demanding the UK be free to sign employment
0:15:33 > 0:15:36trade deals and note end to restriction is by the European Court
0:15:36 > 0:15:43of Justice?I share the aspirations contained in the letter.You did not
0:15:43 > 0:15:52sign it.No.Did they ask you to? No. I am not inclined to make
0:15:52 > 0:15:56demands at this stage. I think they should be allowed to get on with the
0:15:56 > 0:16:00negotiations. I have confidence in their ability to do so. I'm
0:16:00 > 0:16:04confident that in the end will get a good deal in the interests of the UK
0:16:04 > 0:16:08and of the European Union because there is a great commonality of
0:16:08 > 0:16:13interest between the two of us to have a good relationship, a deep and
0:16:13 > 0:16:17special relationship the Prime Minister has spoken of.You are
0:16:17 > 0:16:22trying not to be a back-seat driver. As a former leader of the Tory Party
0:16:22 > 0:16:25you probably understand how annoying that will be that you are an
0:16:25 > 0:16:30interested party entitled to your view on this. Iain Duncan Smith is
0:16:30 > 0:16:34in the papers saying how important it is to end the authority of the
0:16:34 > 0:16:44European Court of Justice. Is that a red line for you?
0:16:44 > 0:16:48I have every confidence in the Prime Minister and in David Davis and I
0:16:48 > 0:16:51think they will end up with a good deal.They're just going to pick up
0:16:51 > 0:16:58with our panel here. Listening to Michael Howard there, very carefully
0:16:58 > 0:17:03trying not to step on the Prime Minister's toes, but clearly he
0:17:03 > 0:17:07shares some sympathy with people who do want to put some red lines on
0:17:07 > 0:17:12her?I know Michael Howard is a forensic follower of politics, so
0:17:12 > 0:17:16I'm surprised he is completely confident about Theresa May
0:17:16 > 0:17:19delivering this, given that when she returned from the last summit, when
0:17:19 > 0:17:23she made her House of Commons statement, she was clear, to my
0:17:23 > 0:17:27surprise, actually, that during the transition, I am not surprised in
0:17:27 > 0:17:32how it turned out but I am surprised she was so clear, that the European
0:17:32 > 0:17:37court would hold some sway. It has two, because if the transition is to
0:17:37 > 0:17:42be effective, it means one way or another we will still sort of be in
0:17:42 > 0:17:45the single market and Customs union for a time and therefore the
0:17:45 > 0:17:49European court will hold some sway. And she said it. I saw Jacob
0:17:49 > 0:17:54Rees-Mogg's response of horror. But she did say it. And so that is
0:17:54 > 0:17:57already I think part of the equation. So the response of her
0:17:57 > 0:18:07Brexiteers on this will be pivotal. Iain Duncan Smith is not alone in
0:18:07 > 0:18:09being absolutely resolute that the ECJ will have nothing to do with
0:18:09 > 0:18:13Britain?Absolutely, and I think that the concern amongst the harder
0:18:13 > 0:18:19line Brexiteers is that this transitional arrangement is a
0:18:19 > 0:18:22continuation of the status quo, and that it might even slip. Now, the
0:18:22 > 0:18:25Prime Minister has try to be reassuring on that, and there have
0:18:25 > 0:18:30been indications it might slip a few weeks but definitely not longer. But
0:18:30 > 0:18:38I think that Brexit MPs want more assurances that this will not end up
0:18:38 > 0:18:40just being kicked into the long grass.Will those assurances be
0:18:40 > 0:18:44given?I don't think they will be. She is going to have to compromise.
0:18:44 > 0:18:49The other choice is to walk away. A perfectly admirable choice but it is
0:18:49 > 0:18:53a choice she needs to make. The interesting question is, what do
0:18:53 > 0:18:59these people plan to do about it? What does Michael Howard plan to do
0:18:59 > 0:19:07if the £45 billion bill, which he is now accepting, it would appear, the
0:19:07 > 0:19:11four MPs and some other quite senior party figures, what do they plan to
0:19:11 > 0:19:15do if the Prime Minister compromises? Will they vote against
0:19:15 > 0:19:21it, will they put their considerable legislative weight, which Michael
0:19:21 > 0:19:24Howard could do in the House of Lords, against it?Even though
0:19:24 > 0:19:30you're being very diplomatic today, is there a point at which you would
0:19:30 > 0:19:34speak out if something you saw as fundamentally unacceptable occurred?
0:19:34 > 0:19:39That is a very hypothetical question, Sarah!The idea that you
0:19:39 > 0:19:43might find something out of Brussels being unacceptable is hypothetical?
0:19:43 > 0:19:50Lets wait and see. I have said and I am in danger of repeating myself, I
0:19:50 > 0:19:54have every confidence in the Prime Minister and in David Davis. I think
0:19:54 > 0:20:00we will end up with a good deal. You would in expect in negotiations like
0:20:00 > 0:20:06this an awful lot of posturing.Let me into you because I need to ask
0:20:06 > 0:20:11you about one other thing before we go. Damian Green, you will know
0:20:11 > 0:20:15there have been more stories reported this week around the
0:20:15 > 0:20:17accusation that he viewed pornography on a Parliamentary
0:20:17 > 0:20:22computer, something he absolutely resolutely denies. If it is
0:20:22 > 0:20:24discovered that he wasn't telling the truth when he told the Prime
0:20:24 > 0:20:30Minister he hadn't done this, would it be a resigning matter?I don't
0:20:30 > 0:20:34know, that is another hypothetical question. Damian was my
0:20:34 > 0:20:37Parliamentary neighbour for many years, he has denied it and I
0:20:37 > 0:20:41believe him and I agree with those very senior figures yesterday who
0:20:41 > 0:20:45condemned the leaking of information by these retired police officers. I
0:20:45 > 0:20:52think that's a very serious matter indeed. Policing in this country is
0:20:52 > 0:21:03based on trust between the police and the public. And if we have...
0:21:03 > 0:21:07Michael Howard, thank you very much for talking to us.
0:21:07 > 0:21:10The EU has warned Theresa May that she must satisfy Irish demands,
0:21:10 > 0:21:12if the Brexit negotiations are to move forward this week.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15But ahead of a crucial meeting between Theresa May
0:21:15 > 0:21:18and Jean-Claude Juncker tomorrow, it seems there is still work to do.
0:21:18 > 0:21:19Here's the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney,
0:21:19 > 0:21:24speaking this morning.
0:21:24 > 0:21:25speaking this morning.
0:21:25 > 0:21:30There is no desire in Ireland to delay this process. But at the same
0:21:30 > 0:21:33time we have irresponsibility as a government to represent the
0:21:33 > 0:21:36interests on the island of Ireland, north and south. Let's not forget
0:21:36 > 0:21:40that next year will be the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday
0:21:40 > 0:21:43Agreement, which is the basis for the peace process, and relations
0:21:43 > 0:21:47between Britain and Ireland on the island of Ireland. And we believe
0:21:47 > 0:21:53that as an island, Ireland is uniquely vulnerable and exposed to a
0:21:53 > 0:21:58potential bad outcome from Brexit.
0:21:58 > 0:22:00With me now is the Shadow International Trade
0:22:00 > 0:22:05Secretary, Barry Gardiner.
0:22:05 > 0:22:06Secretary, Barry Gardiner.
0:22:06 > 0:22:08Obviously, it is absolutely crucial that a resolution is found to this
0:22:08 > 0:22:12problem - what is Labour's position? I think you have to proceed here on
0:22:12 > 0:22:17the basis of principles. The first principle is, do nothing that
0:22:17 > 0:22:20damages the peace process. The second principle is, do nothing that
0:22:20 > 0:22:26averages the economy. And by that I mean both the economy and Northern
0:22:26 > 0:22:32Ireland, in Ireland as a whole and in the UK and Ireland as a whole.
0:22:32 > 0:22:39Now, that means that we have to... But that's the impossible conundrum,
0:22:39 > 0:22:41how to do all of those things at once?It can't be impossible,
0:22:41 > 0:22:44because we've got to do it. Of course it is being made much more
0:22:44 > 0:22:48difficult by the government's red lines on this. And the government
0:22:48 > 0:22:53has stated very publicly and clearly that it wants to come out of the
0:22:53 > 0:22:56customs union and the single market. And of course, what actually creates
0:22:56 > 0:23:01checks at the border is when you have regulator we variants and when
0:23:01 > 0:23:04you have product standards that are different. So, that means that you
0:23:04 > 0:23:08have to check what's coming in and out for any tariffs that you wish to
0:23:08 > 0:23:15impose. Now, that's why it has been, I think and my party thinks, foolish
0:23:15 > 0:23:19to have removed the structural possibilities which lie in the
0:23:19 > 0:23:24customs union or the single market, from what the government's
0:23:24 > 0:23:30negotiating position is.That's very interesting, because I can see
0:23:30 > 0:23:33clearly, and so can the Irish government, exactly how staying in
0:23:33 > 0:23:35the customs union and the single market would help resolve the
0:23:35 > 0:23:39question for the island of Ireland, but also it raises questions for the
0:23:39 > 0:23:43United Kingdom. It is also interesting because if we have a
0:23:43 > 0:23:46look at what you say back in July, who didn't sound quite as pleased
0:23:46 > 0:23:51about the single market, when you said we would in effect become a
0:23:51 > 0:23:56vassal state, obliged to pay into the EU budget and having even less
0:23:56 > 0:24:00sovereignty than we do now - you weren't so keen on the single market
0:24:00 > 0:24:03then?I am not so keen on the single market membership as opposed to
0:24:03 > 0:24:06being a member of the EU. Single market membership without being a
0:24:06 > 0:24:11member of the EU means that you do not have a say in the rules which
0:24:11 > 0:24:15you have to abide by.But we're leaving the EU, let's take that as a
0:24:15 > 0:24:21given.Let's talk about where we are going forward. I was setting out
0:24:21 > 0:24:26very clearly, and I don't think you would disagree with what I said, I
0:24:26 > 0:24:29was setting out very clearly the applications of leaving the EU in
0:24:29 > 0:24:32the way that the government had set out. And those implications are
0:24:32 > 0:24:38clear. I believe I set them out correctly. Where we are now is, we
0:24:38 > 0:24:42have to find a solution to this problem. Simon Coveney was actually
0:24:42 > 0:24:46earlier very clear in saying that you don't have to have a full
0:24:46 > 0:24:52solution in phase one, but there has to be the real expectation that
0:24:52 > 0:24:57we're going to be able to resolve it in phase two. The first thing that
0:24:57 > 0:25:00both sides need to say here is that we will look at the Common Travel
0:25:00 > 0:25:04Area, which has existed since 1922, and that should be part and parcel
0:25:04 > 0:25:06of the deal going forward. The second element that I think is
0:25:06 > 0:25:13really important here is to understand precisely what the peace
0:25:13 > 0:25:18settlement was, when in the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 we set out
0:25:18 > 0:25:22that there should be no security checks at the border. That was
0:25:22 > 0:25:26critically important. But of course, security checks in those days were
0:25:26 > 0:25:29in place because of the situation, the military, paramilitary
0:25:29 > 0:25:35situation. But when those security checks were taken away, because we
0:25:35 > 0:25:41were members of the single market and because we were members of the
0:25:41 > 0:25:43customs union, there were no additional customs checks. Now, to
0:25:43 > 0:25:46say that you order the Good Friday Agreement and have no security
0:25:46 > 0:25:51checks, with all the military paraphernalia that goes with that,
0:25:51 > 0:25:59does not mean that you cannot have typified customs checks. But those
0:25:59 > 0:26:02customs checks will only be put in place if the government wants to
0:26:02 > 0:26:08deregulate. My party doesn't. My party doesn't want to deregulate, we
0:26:08 > 0:26:14don't want to impose these terrorists. The government is in a
0:26:14 > 0:26:16bind here, because most of the key players around of Brexit want to
0:26:16 > 0:26:21deregulate, and that means there have to be tariffs, and that means
0:26:21 > 0:26:24they have to be imposed at a border. Jeremy Corbyn yesterday refused to
0:26:24 > 0:26:28rule out the possibility of a second referendum on our EU membership - is
0:26:28 > 0:26:33it now the Labour Party's policy that we might vote again on this?
0:26:33 > 0:26:37No, it's not.Why did he say we have not made any decision on a second
0:26:37 > 0:26:41referendum?That precisely says that it is not, because policy because we
0:26:41 > 0:26:48have not made a decision on it!You could make a decision Ameobi not to
0:26:48 > 0:26:50have a second referendum?Let's be absolutely upfront about this. The
0:26:50 > 0:26:56idea that you would have a second referendum, I think you would say
0:26:56 > 0:26:58you were going to have a second referendum. Like the Liberal
0:26:58 > 0:27:03Democrats have done. That would be to encourage the EU to give you the
0:27:03 > 0:27:09worst possible deal that there was, so that when you're then voted on
0:27:09 > 0:27:14it, everybody would say, we can't possibly go there. The key thing, in
0:27:14 > 0:27:20my view, is that it was always foolish, always foolish, to have a
0:27:20 > 0:27:2450% class one referendum. Because if you are trying to...That's what we
0:27:24 > 0:27:28had, we are now looking at the future. I'm talking about the
0:27:28 > 0:27:34future. It sounds like Jeremy Corbyn is saying it is a possibility that
0:27:34 > 0:27:39Labour might call for one?I am trying to answer your question. I am
0:27:39 > 0:27:43not trying to avoid it. When we go forward, if we were to have another
0:27:43 > 0:27:46referendum on the same lines as we have had, and it were to be 52-48
0:27:46 > 0:27:52the other way, what would that achieve hammered absolutely nothing.
0:27:52 > 0:27:56It would then be game on for a third or fourth referendum. The only way
0:27:56 > 0:27:59in which in my view you could possibly contemplate a second
0:27:59 > 0:28:02referendum would be if you had a threshold which I believe should
0:28:02 > 0:28:07have been there in the first place of a two thirds majority. But that I
0:28:07 > 0:28:10stress is not Labour Party policy, it is not something that we've
0:28:10 > 0:28:17decided, and Jeremy Corbyn articulated that yesterday.Have you
0:28:17 > 0:28:20spoken to Diane Abbott, who has written to two constituents in the
0:28:20 > 0:28:25past month saying she would make the case for a second referendum?Diane
0:28:25 > 0:28:29has already said that letter was poorly worded Pozzo, as she called
0:28:29 > 0:28:36it. I will not make any further comment on it.
0:28:36 > 0:28:38The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, came in for a bit
0:28:38 > 0:28:40of flak recently when he admitted that Labour was preparing
0:28:40 > 0:28:43for possible negative scenarios, such as a run on the pound,
0:28:43 > 0:28:46if it wins power.
0:28:46 > 0:28:51Speaking on the fringes of his party's conference, he said
0:28:51 > 0:28:54he was carrying out "war game-type scenario planning" in the event
0:28:54 > 0:28:55of an election victory.
0:28:55 > 0:28:56John McDonnell, the man helping Mr McDonald.
0:28:56 > 0:28:58Well, the man helping Mr McDonnell do that is
0:28:58 > 0:29:00the academic Richard Barbrook.
0:29:00 > 0:29:02He's also the man behind 'Games for the Many' -
0:29:02 > 0:29:04the political gaming studio that produced CorbynRun.
0:29:04 > 0:29:09Ellie Price went along to meet him.
0:29:09 > 0:29:09Ellie Price went along to meet him.
0:29:09 > 0:29:11You may have seen some of these during the election.
0:29:11 > 0:29:14In May Bot, the gamer helps the PM shoot, run and slide
0:29:14 > 0:29:15her way to dystopia.
0:29:15 > 0:29:19And then downloaded 150,000 times in the first week of
0:29:19 > 0:29:21the campaign alone, Corbyn Run, which sees Jeremy Corbyn shaking
0:29:21 > 0:29:24down bankers to pay for policy pledges.
0:29:24 > 0:29:27And it's one of the things the Labour leadership think can win
0:29:27 > 0:29:30them the next election.
0:29:30 > 0:29:37It put an idea out there that you can actually
0:29:37 > 0:29:41engage in politics in a way which is both a good laugh,
0:29:41 > 0:29:43enjoy the game.
0:29:43 > 0:29:45But actually it is quite stimulating as well.
0:29:45 > 0:29:47What happened was, that prompted ideas about a
0:29:47 > 0:29:49fair taxation system and the policies that
0:29:49 > 0:29:50were being launched.
0:29:50 > 0:29:51It's new creative way into ideas.
0:29:51 > 0:29:54Are you worried that the Tories will catch on?
0:29:54 > 0:29:59They most probably will catch on.
0:29:59 > 0:30:00They most probably will catch on.
0:30:00 > 0:30:03But it's not just about the medium, it is about the message as well.
0:30:03 > 0:30:04Richard, what is happening here?
0:30:04 > 0:30:05It's a games jam. Right.
0:30:05 > 0:30:07People are coming together to make app games,
0:30:07 > 0:30:10laptop games, board games, getting ready for the local elections in May
0:30:10 > 0:30:11to propagate Labour's message.
0:30:11 > 0:30:12And is it really working?
0:30:12 > 0:30:15You have 50-odd people here, that's hardly going to change the world.
0:30:15 > 0:30:16No.
0:30:16 > 0:30:21I'm from the punk generation.
0:30:21 > 0:30:22I'm from the punk generation.
0:30:22 > 0:30:26The first time I saw the Sex Pistols, there were 40 or 50
0:30:26 > 0:30:27people in the room.
0:30:27 > 0:30:29Then, in the late-80s, I went to the very early raves
0:30:29 > 0:30:31and again there were very small groups of people.
0:30:31 > 0:30:33Yet, in both cases, these cultures, you start off
0:30:33 > 0:30:36with small groups of people and they can suddenly
0:30:36 > 0:30:37become a mass phenomenom.
0:30:37 > 0:30:39And, I'm reliably informed, it isn't just for computer geeks.
0:30:39 > 0:30:41Yes, we've got people here who are activists and have
0:30:41 > 0:30:45never coded in their lives and they're using tools,
0:30:45 > 0:30:48with which you can make games with no coding skills.
0:30:48 > 0:30:51I'm not sure I believe you but here is a challenge.
0:30:51 > 0:30:52Can you make me a game?
0:30:52 > 0:30:53Yes, I can.
0:30:53 > 0:30:58The challenge begins.
0:30:58 > 0:31:02The challenge begins.
0:31:02 > 0:31:03OK.
0:31:03 > 0:31:04I'm done.
0:31:04 > 0:31:06That took less than half an hour.
0:31:06 > 0:31:07Can I see it?
0:31:07 > 0:31:08Yeah, of course.
0:31:08 > 0:31:11You go up to John and he says, "We're making games to change the
0:31:11 > 0:31:12face of politics."
0:31:12 > 0:31:15Then you go up to Jeremy and he says, "for the many,
0:31:15 > 0:31:16not the few."
0:31:16 > 0:31:19OK, so it's not exactly Super Mario but Labour are looking
0:31:19 > 0:31:21at another kind of gaming, so-called war-gaming.
0:31:21 > 0:31:24Considering possible future scenarios.
0:31:24 > 0:31:25Something John McDonnell talked about at the last
0:31:25 > 0:31:28Labour Conference.
0:31:28 > 0:31:34What if there is a run on the pound, what happens if
0:31:34 > 0:31:35there is this concept of capital flight?
0:31:35 > 0:31:37I don't think there will but you never know
0:31:37 > 0:31:42so we've got a scenario planned for that.
0:31:42 > 0:31:44Richard is also part of the Shadow Treasury
0:31:44 > 0:31:47war-gaming team, who are expected to meet again in the next few weeks.
0:31:47 > 0:31:50If people are going to trust us with their jobs and their pensions
0:31:50 > 0:31:52and their livelihoods, we've got to show
0:31:52 > 0:31:53we know what we are doing.
0:31:53 > 0:31:58This seems like common sense to me.
0:31:58 > 0:32:01From games jams like these, Labour hoped to create a campaign
0:32:01 > 0:32:04tool that will take them to the next level - Downing Street.
0:32:04 > 0:32:07If politics is a game, there are novel ways to play.
0:32:07 > 0:32:12And Richard Barbrook joins me now.
0:32:12 > 0:32:13And Richard Barbrook joins me now.
0:32:13 > 0:32:18Thanks for coming in. John McDonnell said the conference he was working
0:32:18 > 0:32:22with you are looking at different scenarios I possibly around on the
0:32:22 > 0:32:29pound. It caused huge amount of controversy. Can you understand why?
0:32:29 > 0:32:33I was actually. Surprised that people are surprised that political
0:32:33 > 0:32:37parties are not doing this. The military, the civil service,
0:32:37 > 0:32:42Corporation Banks, they all do this. The surprise was one would imagine
0:32:42 > 0:32:46that a Labour government neither hoped nor predicted there would be a
0:32:46 > 0:32:54run on the pound and capital flight. Given the fanaticism of the present
0:32:54 > 0:32:57government, probably when we get elected, the pound would likely go
0:32:57 > 0:33:04up. You need to think about these problems beforehand. There are
0:33:04 > 0:33:09potential difficulties to foresee. You can scenario plan for those. You
0:33:09 > 0:33:13can read about problems coming up ahead and you can talk about them
0:33:13 > 0:33:20but actually to experience in a game like atmosphere, the pressures of
0:33:20 > 0:33:23making decisions... You can identify problems and think about solutions,
0:33:23 > 0:33:28try out ideas. If it does not work you can reiterate again and again
0:33:28 > 0:33:33and again.When the Treasury does something like this, with very
0:33:33 > 0:33:36complex statistical models and huge amounts of data, can you feed it
0:33:36 > 0:33:45into a scenario?You can on that basis. What you can do more is test
0:33:45 > 0:33:49the team coming together and seeing how it responds under pressure. A
0:33:49 > 0:33:53good example, if you think about the National Health Service. If it were
0:33:53 > 0:33:56a flu pandemic they would have to think about how to reallocate
0:33:56 > 0:34:01resources. There would be sickness amongst staff, more people going to
0:34:01 > 0:34:04hospitals and you get together a group of people responsible for
0:34:04 > 0:34:08running the NHS. You put them together and put them through a
0:34:08 > 0:34:14three-hour simulation of it and that is the same sort of thing we are
0:34:14 > 0:34:16doing. We are looking at what happens when Labour gets in, the
0:34:16 > 0:34:20first 100 days in power, for the first budget, what would you do?
0:34:20 > 0:34:25Whether it is a run on the pound or something, you create pressures and
0:34:25 > 0:34:30problems for them to create the idea of how they have to operate as a
0:34:30 > 0:34:35team.Does that give you the opportunity to stress test some of
0:34:35 > 0:34:38the more radical policies that Labour came up with in the last
0:34:38 > 0:34:42manifesto like nationalising the water companies or electricity firms
0:34:42 > 0:34:54or something like that?It is only maybe in this media bubble in
0:34:54 > 0:34:56Britain that we think neoliberalism is the only alternative.Those are
0:34:56 > 0:34:59to mainstream for you to bother about?I said the initial simulation
0:34:59 > 0:35:03as any of the first 100 days we are looking at how we would put together
0:35:03 > 0:35:11a budget. That is not really what the focus is. It is making it
0:35:11 > 0:35:15happen, the decision-making process. That is what you are trying to train
0:35:15 > 0:35:19people for. The military does this, the civil service does this put up
0:35:19 > 0:35:26if you do not do this you are in a very bad position. The election, the
0:35:26 > 0:35:29Liberal Democrats did no contingency planning as to what would happen if
0:35:29 > 0:35:34there were a hung parliament but the civil service did. They ripped
0:35:34 > 0:35:39people into becoming a junior appendage of the Tory Party with the
0:35:39 > 0:35:44disastrous results that came from that.Is this the kind of
0:35:44 > 0:35:48discussions that a Shadow Cabinet would be having in the run-up to the
0:35:48 > 0:35:53general election anyway? That is that fundamental job of an
0:35:53 > 0:35:58opposition.This is a fundamental method of doing it. You are just
0:35:58 > 0:36:02surprised that a political parties doing this. If you are the military
0:36:02 > 0:36:08or the civil service you use this tool. You are just surprised... I am
0:36:08 > 0:36:12surprised that you are surprised. The other thing you are doing
0:36:12 > 0:36:18separate from the war game scenario, the apps and the games go further --
0:36:18 > 0:36:25which you say can further political engagement, are they really
0:36:25 > 0:36:36spreading a message?A good example is the Jeremy Corbyn ran.I have
0:36:36 > 0:36:44played that. It is about mugging bankers in the streets.Why we have
0:36:44 > 0:36:48austerities is about the tax cuts. You reverse that and you campaign
0:36:48 > 0:36:51fuel social programme. In doing so, it shows that you are more
0:36:51 > 0:36:56successful in raising revenue can unlock certain pledges and people
0:36:56 > 0:37:01join your campaign.Stay there if you will. I will come to the panel.
0:37:01 > 0:37:06Do you think this sounds like a useful, political tool, to sit there
0:37:06 > 0:37:11in a game like atmosphere and work hard to intimate radical programme
0:37:11 > 0:37:15for government?Yes. It sounds sensible and not the only thing they
0:37:15 > 0:37:20are doing. I can see them Maya city of John McDonnell was to speak aloud
0:37:20 > 0:37:26in any context about a potential run on the pound. -- naivete. To prepare
0:37:26 > 0:37:34for eventualities, prepare for the first 100 days by using all kinds of
0:37:34 > 0:37:39devices, is highly sensible.Even if it has been publicised to working
0:37:39 > 0:37:45with games developers.You kept going on about military, war-gaming
0:37:45 > 0:37:49exercises. I am co-authoring a book on defence at the moment. In one of
0:37:49 > 0:37:55the most important recent war-gaming exercises we did with the Americans,
0:37:55 > 0:38:00we were wiped out within a day because our targeting policy was so
0:38:00 > 0:38:05outdated. I think the fear in the city is exactly that would happen
0:38:05 > 0:38:10economically because your economic policy is so outdated.I will let
0:38:10 > 0:38:16you respond to that and ask you another question as well.She is
0:38:16 > 0:38:23just the Tory Troll.I'm not a member of the Tory Party. No reason
0:38:23 > 0:38:31to be impolite to people. If Morgan Stanley came here and said we want
0:38:31 > 0:38:38to game out what a Labour government would mean for business, would you
0:38:38 > 0:38:42do that?I would not do it but I would be very surprised if they are
0:38:42 > 0:38:48not already doing that.Thank you for coming in to talk to us.
0:38:48 > 0:38:49It's coming up to 11:40am.
0:38:49 > 0:38:51You're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:51 > 0:38:53Coming up on the programme...
0:38:53 > 0:38:55We sent the Sunday Politics moodbox - our unscientific poll
0:38:55 > 0:38:57featuring plastic balls - to South West London.
0:38:57 > 0:38:58After polling suggested the Conservative Party
0:38:58 > 0:39:00aren't seen as "caring", we asked people in
0:39:00 > 0:39:02Putney what they value more in politicians -
0:39:02 > 0:39:03competence or compassion?
0:39:03 > 0:39:05I think that anybody who is in parliament
0:39:05 > 0:39:08should be confident, otherwise they shouldn't be an MP in
0:39:08 > 0:39:14the first place, whatever party they are.
0:39:14 > 0:39:15-- competent.
0:39:15 > 0:39:16Do they have enough compassion?
0:39:16 > 0:39:17Hm?
0:39:17 > 0:39:18Do they have enough compassion?
0:39:25 > 0:39:28Hello, and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.
0:39:28 > 0:39:33In a few minutes time...
0:39:33 > 0:39:35Does Wales need an extra five trade offices abroad?
0:39:35 > 0:39:38A former trade minister says we do, but they need the right support.
0:39:38 > 0:39:41And will Wales gain or lose powers after Brexit?
0:39:41 > 0:39:44MPs will debate the issue tomorrow but is it all just
0:39:44 > 0:39:45a storm in a teacup?
0:39:49 > 0:39:51But first, with the border with Ireland at the centre
0:39:51 > 0:39:54of the Brexit talks, what could any solution that is
0:39:54 > 0:39:55eventually found mean for Wales?
0:39:55 > 0:39:58The Welsh Secretary says far from being a problem, it could be
0:39:58 > 0:39:59an opportunity for Wales.
0:39:59 > 0:40:02He says it could provide us with a gateway to Europe.
0:40:02 > 0:40:04When I spoke to him, I began, where else, but with Brexit,
0:40:04 > 0:40:07and asked him about the challenges he said were still ahead
0:40:07 > 0:40:11for the Withdrawal Bill.
0:40:11 > 0:40:14Well, the Welsh government amendments have still been tabled.
0:40:14 > 0:40:16The debate is taking place tomorrow.
0:40:16 > 0:40:19We will clearly look at those, and listen
0:40:19 > 0:40:22to the discussions around it.
0:40:22 > 0:40:25And we are keen to take every part of the UK with us.
0:40:25 > 0:40:29And I think, from the maybe, more fractious statements that
0:40:29 > 0:40:32were made when the bill was published, to a much more
0:40:32 > 0:40:35constructive place now, demonstrates that the approach we've
0:40:35 > 0:40:38been taking as a UK Government is working, we are instilling
0:40:38 > 0:40:42confidence with communities, with businesses, and of course,
0:40:42 > 0:40:44with the Welsh government.
0:40:44 > 0:40:47I mean, we are talking about the amendments which will be
0:40:47 > 0:40:50discussed tomorrow as part of the EU withdrawal bill, in Westminster,
0:40:50 > 0:40:53and what the Welsh and Scottish governments have said is,
0:40:53 > 0:40:55well, look, you need the consent of Welsh ministers before
0:40:55 > 0:40:59you can pass legislation on those devolved areas.
0:40:59 > 0:41:02Does this seem to be a fair thing that they are asking for?
0:41:02 > 0:41:04We always work to get consent.
0:41:04 > 0:41:06That's always been my approach.
0:41:06 > 0:41:10My relationship with the Welsh government is pretty strong,
0:41:10 > 0:41:13I talk to the ministers regularly, because it's in the
0:41:13 > 0:41:16interests of business.
0:41:16 > 0:41:19If we're going to get the new opportunities that leaving
0:41:19 > 0:41:22the European Union provides, for our example, those great export
0:41:22 > 0:41:24opportunities, free trade, discussions that need to take place.
0:41:24 > 0:41:28Clearly, the closer that the UK Government and Welsh
0:41:28 > 0:41:31government work, the better.
0:41:31 > 0:41:35One of these things which has had a lot of attention recently is how
0:41:35 > 0:41:37Brexit will affect the border in Northern Ireland,
0:41:37 > 0:41:39will there be a hard border?
0:41:39 > 0:41:43Will there be a frictionless, lack of order, as there is now?
0:41:43 > 0:41:47You know that could have a large impact on the thoughts of Holyhead,
0:41:47 > 0:41:50and Pembroke, how concerned are you about that?
0:41:50 > 0:41:53You are right, the integrity of the UK is extremely important.
0:41:53 > 0:41:56That is important to the population in Northern Ireland.
0:41:56 > 0:41:59But, also, the relationship with the Republic of Ireland
0:41:59 > 0:42:01will be important to.
0:42:01 > 0:42:03And the Common travel area predates any membership
0:42:03 > 0:42:05of the European Union.
0:42:05 > 0:42:07So we recognise that.
0:42:07 > 0:42:10But it's also relevant to Wales, I regularly raise this
0:42:10 > 0:42:16with the Prime Minister in terms of the port at Holyhead,
0:42:16 > 0:42:18and Fishguard, of course.
0:42:18 > 0:42:19And what does she say?
0:42:19 > 0:42:21She absolutely gets it.
0:42:21 > 0:42:24She is, even before I speak now, I think she can tell
0:42:24 > 0:42:27what I'm going to say.
0:42:27 > 0:42:30So it's an issue that we are alive to, and we have two sink
0:42:30 > 0:42:33as imaginatively as possible, but I think that there are
0:42:33 > 0:42:36opportunities that come from this.
0:42:36 > 0:42:38Because South West Wales, and North West Wales,
0:42:38 > 0:42:41will become the gateway to Europe.
0:42:41 > 0:42:48They will be as important to the UK economy as Dover is to Calais.
0:42:48 > 0:42:51Because we will be as close to the European Union,
0:42:51 > 0:42:53on North West Wales and South West Wales,
0:42:53 > 0:42:55as Kent will be.
0:42:55 > 0:42:58It certainly would be a gateway, the other way of looking at it,
0:42:58 > 0:43:00which is what Carwyn Jones has raised concerns about before,
0:43:00 > 0:43:04is that, actually, instead of using Holyhead in Pembroke,
0:43:04 > 0:43:09what lorries, what transport freight will do, is use Liverpool,
0:43:09 > 0:43:11is use Stranraer because it will be an easier route.
0:43:11 > 0:43:13Is that a concern as well?
0:43:13 > 0:43:16I don't accept that for a second.
0:43:16 > 0:43:19Because I think that business will follow the natural boundary.
0:43:19 > 0:43:22Business will follow the easiest path.
0:43:22 > 0:43:26So it's up to us as politicians, in the UK Government
0:43:26 > 0:43:29and European Commission and the Irish Republic,
0:43:29 > 0:43:31and with the Northern Ireland executive to come up
0:43:31 > 0:43:36with the imagination that allows that to continue.
0:43:36 > 0:43:38I'm excited about the opportunity.
0:43:38 > 0:43:41You're talking about businesses following the easiest route.
0:43:41 > 0:43:43If there isn't a soft border between the Republic
0:43:43 > 0:43:45and Northern Ireland, the easiest route would be to go
0:43:45 > 0:43:49from Belfast to Liverpool, Belfast or to Stranraer,
0:43:49 > 0:43:52rather than go Dublin to Holyhead.
0:43:52 > 0:43:56That could be really damaging.
0:43:56 > 0:44:00That's why we are thinking imaginatively.
0:44:00 > 0:44:01What is the answer than?
0:44:01 > 0:44:04Well, in the cabinet earlier this week it was discussed again,
0:44:04 > 0:44:06and we talked about the various approaches we could take,
0:44:06 > 0:44:11please rest assured that this is alive to our thinking.
0:44:11 > 0:44:13We recognise the opportunities.
0:44:13 > 0:44:15I point you towards the industrial strategy,
0:44:15 > 0:44:19it talks about growth corridors.
0:44:19 > 0:44:21I think this is an exciting opportunity for North West Wales
0:44:21 > 0:44:23and south-west Wales.
0:44:23 > 0:44:26Just one go on this again, just before we move
0:44:26 > 0:44:28onto the industrial strategy, other growth corridors,
0:44:28 > 0:44:31you are saying that you are alive to the problem in Holyhead,
0:44:31 > 0:44:33you say that you have to be imaginative in how
0:44:33 > 0:44:35you come up with answers, but there aren't any concrete
0:44:35 > 0:44:36answers yet, are there?
0:44:36 > 0:44:39And that is going to lead to uncertainty, isn't it?
0:44:39 > 0:44:41You will rightly understand that this is a negotiation.
0:44:41 > 0:44:45And we want the same outcomes whereby businesses will trade
0:44:45 > 0:44:49as freely as possible, we want North Wales
0:44:49 > 0:44:52and South West Wales to have the same opportunities,
0:44:52 > 0:44:55because this is so important to trade with the Republic
0:44:55 > 0:44:58of Ireland, and Northern Ireland, and the UK.
0:44:58 > 0:45:00I promised that we'd come onto the industrial strategy.
0:45:00 > 0:45:03One of the things that seems to be fairly key there,
0:45:03 > 0:45:05from a Welsh perspective, is these growth corridors.
0:45:05 > 0:45:07As you've called them.
0:45:07 > 0:45:10Linked in, if you like, North East Wales with North West
0:45:10 > 0:45:12of England, Manchester, Liverpool, and South East Wales,
0:45:12 > 0:45:15Cardiff, with Bristol and the South West of
0:45:15 > 0:45:18England's economy.
0:45:18 > 0:45:23Doesn't that ignore, to a large extent, the existence
0:45:23 > 0:45:26of devolution, of Wales as a sort of political entity?
0:45:26 > 0:45:29I think it's important that we make politics fit business,
0:45:29 > 0:45:31rather than business fit politics.
0:45:31 > 0:45:34So let's be frank if you are in Deeside,
0:45:34 > 0:45:36or if you are in Wrexham, clearly, your nearest
0:45:36 > 0:45:40commercial centre would be Liverpool and Manchester.
0:45:40 > 0:45:43The deeper that we can develop that relationship,
0:45:43 > 0:45:47the better it will be on the Welsh side of the border as well as
0:45:47 > 0:45:49on the English side.
0:45:49 > 0:45:51So if you notice, back to the industrial strategy,
0:45:51 > 0:45:54it talks about growth corridors, on a cross-border basis.
0:45:54 > 0:45:58If you look at the statements that have come out from the budget,
0:45:58 > 0:46:01we are talking about improving rail links on a cross-border basis.
0:46:01 > 0:46:05We are putting a new Holton curve in that would allow direct routes
0:46:05 > 0:46:07between Liverpool and Wrexham, we've talked about the
0:46:07 > 0:46:09Wrexham to Bidston line.
0:46:09 > 0:46:12We've talked about improvements of the main line across North Wales.
0:46:12 > 0:46:15Of course, in south Wales, on a similar basis, it will be well
0:46:15 > 0:46:20recognised that we are abolishing the Severn tolls.
0:46:20 > 0:46:22These are not being done as policies in isolation,
0:46:22 > 0:46:26these fit into a much bigger plan of tiling these regions together,
0:46:26 > 0:46:31so let's take the south-west of the UK, between Bristol,
0:46:31 > 0:46:37Newport, Cardiff and Swansea, we could have one of the biggest
0:46:37 > 0:46:40digital clusters, for example, in Europe and on the western side
0:46:40 > 0:46:42of the UK, rather than always looking to the bottom right hand
0:46:42 > 0:46:44side of the country.
0:46:44 > 0:46:47You are saying that you want the politics to fit business,
0:46:47 > 0:46:50is there an extent to which, over the last 20 years or so,
0:46:50 > 0:46:52you think it has been the other way round?
0:46:52 > 0:46:56Business had to fit around politics, that it's been two Wales centred,
0:46:56 > 0:47:01rather than Wales seeking to expand its horizons?
0:47:01 > 0:47:03Well, I want there to be that devolution dividend
0:47:03 > 0:47:05that we've talked about.
0:47:05 > 0:47:07I think, in the past, sometimes Wales has done things
0:47:07 > 0:47:10for the sake of being different.
0:47:10 > 0:47:11Sometimes it's important that that happens,
0:47:11 > 0:47:14and that is the right thing to do.
0:47:14 > 0:47:18Sometimes, joint working between the Cardiff City deal
0:47:18 > 0:47:22region, and the Bristol, or West of England authorities,
0:47:22 > 0:47:25and the local enterprise partnerships that exist there,
0:47:25 > 0:47:27can also be important as well.
0:47:27 > 0:47:29This is not either or.
0:47:29 > 0:47:33Let's come to the best outcomes that work for businesses,
0:47:33 > 0:47:35because that then create employment, it creates wealth,
0:47:35 > 0:47:38and new opportunities for younger people as they leave school.
0:47:38 > 0:47:45I just wondered, because you know economic development is a default
0:47:45 > 0:47:46-- devolved area.
0:47:46 > 0:47:47-- devolved area.
0:47:47 > 0:47:50area, is there an extent to which you are muscling in,
0:47:50 > 0:47:52if you like, on the Welsh government's area of responsibility?
0:47:52 > 0:47:53Hang on!
0:47:53 > 0:47:55It seems like I can't win, because when there's
0:47:55 > 0:47:57a closure of a factory, the first question is,
0:47:57 > 0:47:59what is the UK Government doing?
0:47:59 > 0:48:01And if I turned around and said, that's devolved, clearly,
0:48:01 > 0:48:03I'm not doing anything, then people would rightly
0:48:03 > 0:48:05judge me on that basis.
0:48:05 > 0:48:07I'm taking proactive, positive steps, to work
0:48:07 > 0:48:09with businesses, local authorities, and with the Welsh government,
0:48:09 > 0:48:13and local authorities on both sides of the border,
0:48:13 > 0:48:16in order to come up with outcomes, and create that critical mass.
0:48:16 > 0:48:18To create that cluster.
0:48:18 > 0:48:22So let's take the Cardiff City deal, we've signed a fantastic,
0:48:22 > 0:48:27compound semiconductor cluster in Newport and Cardiff.
0:48:27 > 0:48:31Associated with the university, and a catapult with the UK
0:48:31 > 0:48:33Government scheme.
0:48:33 > 0:48:35This is a world first.
0:48:35 > 0:48:38There are industries on the Bristol side that will really
0:48:38 > 0:48:41want access to that, and want to be part of it.
0:48:41 > 0:48:45If we can create the cluster on a bigger scale, then that makes
0:48:45 > 0:48:48it much more sustainable in the longer term.
0:48:48 > 0:48:56And if you think of what communities are associated with that,
0:48:56 > 0:48:58some of the most deprived communities in the valleys,
0:48:58 > 0:48:59that really would profit so much...
0:48:59 > 0:49:02Why not try to concentrate on the businesses in Swansea,
0:49:02 > 0:49:03that could be benefiting, rather than Bristol?
0:49:03 > 0:49:06That's how the argument will go, the Secretary of State for Wales,
0:49:06 > 0:49:09and here you are, benefiting Bristol, which is mutually
0:49:09 > 0:49:11beneficial, but there might be opportunities in Swansea,
0:49:11 > 0:49:16Llanelli, Wrexham, Bangor as well?
0:49:16 > 0:49:16Llanelli, Wrexham, Bangor as well?
0:49:16 > 0:49:19So why are you telling me that abolishing the Severn tolls
0:49:19 > 0:49:20won't help businesses in Swansea either?
0:49:20 > 0:49:24They will help the whole of South Wales, so let me highlight
0:49:24 > 0:49:28another example then, as part of the industrial strategy,
0:49:28 > 0:49:31are the sector deals, we've talked about steel
0:49:31 > 0:49:35as being important to the strategic future of the UK economy.
0:49:35 > 0:49:40And as the Swansea Bay city deal, we've got the steel science Centre
0:49:40 > 0:49:42between the University and the industry.
0:49:42 > 0:49:44It is not just Tata steel.
0:49:44 > 0:49:46The industries around that area, that is another cluster
0:49:46 > 0:49:49that we are seeing.
0:49:49 > 0:49:51This is not just focusing on the bottom right-hand side
0:49:51 > 0:49:54of Wales, if you like, this is focusing on where industry
0:49:54 > 0:49:58already has strengths.
0:49:58 > 0:50:02Does Wales need an extra five offices abroad to boost trade?
0:50:02 > 0:50:05Welsh Ministers say they do, particularly to attract
0:50:05 > 0:50:08business after Brexit.
0:50:08 > 0:50:10Others have told us it's more complicated than having a building
0:50:10 > 0:50:12with a brass plate on the door.
0:50:12 > 0:50:13So what exactly do these offices do?
0:50:13 > 0:50:18Here's Cemlyn Davies.
0:50:18 > 0:50:21Here's Cemlyn Davies.
0:50:21 > 0:50:27Have you always wanted to work overseas? In Paris, perhaps? Or
0:50:27 > 0:50:33maybe Dusseldorf or the throbbing heart of Germany, Berlin? Till close
0:50:33 > 0:50:37to home, what about Montreal or the Middle East and paradise of
0:50:37 > 0:50:41Delaware? With new offices due to open in the city is the Welsh
0:50:41 > 0:50:46government may soon have just the job for you. Yes, the Welsh
0:50:46 > 0:50:50government is increasing its international presence, because of
0:50:50 > 0:50:54Brexit, ministers say they have to look for new opportunities to
0:50:54 > 0:50:59attract investment and sell Welsh goods overseas.We've picked,
0:50:59 > 0:51:04strategically picked, five new offices in five new locations, where
0:51:04 > 0:51:08we know there is potential for further exporter, where it is
0:51:08 > 0:51:11essential that we build networks and give businesses access to
0:51:11 > 0:51:18decision-makers.Three of those locations are within the EU, in
0:51:18 > 0:51:23Germany and France, at the moment 60% of Welsh exports go to the EU.
0:51:23 > 0:51:28Given that, do you need a stronger presence in Europe? Is this all with
0:51:28 > 0:51:36Brexit in mind?Party, what we have said is that we don't wish to only
0:51:36 > 0:51:40protect the amount we export to the EU, we want to make sure we continue
0:51:40 > 0:51:45to build export opportunities globally.Right next to Gordon Brown
0:51:45 > 0:51:52as he walks down the stairs.Dick Brown was a Trade Minister, he
0:51:52 > 0:51:58supports the plan, but as a warning. You have two be careful that some
0:51:58 > 0:52:02people back at the ranch will stop trying. They'll think, it's been
0:52:02 > 0:52:08done. It doesn't need us. Leave it to the office. Even subliminally,
0:52:08 > 0:52:13people will think it doesn't matter any more. You couldn't be more
0:52:13 > 0:52:19wrong. An office is only as good as the input they have, and the
0:52:19 > 0:52:23products they can sell. And the companies that help them. The
0:52:23 > 0:52:29offices are good catalysts, it's a good route, but it can't do it on
0:52:29 > 0:52:35its own.The Welsh government has 15 offices overseas with staff based in
0:52:35 > 0:52:38seven foreign countries. The total cost of running round last year was
0:52:38 > 0:52:47around half £1 million. There are five in the US.We are one of the
0:52:47 > 0:52:51large investors, the largest investor in Wales. This is important
0:52:51 > 0:52:55for the US. We can have more trade, generate more interest, and more
0:52:55 > 0:53:01vitality on both sides through policies like taxation and
0:53:01 > 0:53:09regulation and encouragement, I think, is could benefit both sides.
0:53:09 > 0:53:18That one is going to China. Julia is based in Cardiff, and had support
0:53:18 > 0:53:22from Welsh government staff working overseas. She went on her first
0:53:22 > 0:53:26trade mission in 2004, soon afterwards she secured an order
0:53:26 > 0:53:31large enough to allow her to give up her day job was she's since been on
0:53:31 > 0:53:36many more Welsh government business trips, including several to the Far
0:53:36 > 0:53:43East. That's where most of her orders come from recently.Last year
0:53:43 > 0:53:49about 90% of my sales went to Hong Kong. I go on trade missions, but
0:53:49 > 0:53:54that market research at the beginning, where somebody living in
0:53:54 > 0:53:57Hong Kong who was contracted by the Welsh government is to be there and
0:53:57 > 0:54:02find the people for me to start off with. That was crucial. The money I
0:54:02 > 0:54:08bring in doesn't stop with me. I use Welsh companies.Julia says her
0:54:08 > 0:54:12business would have died years ago were it not for government support.
0:54:12 > 0:54:18Others of the scheme overseas with figures showing exported to the
0:54:18 > 0:54:26countries where Wales has a presence actually fell between 2013 and 2016,
0:54:26 > 0:54:34by 55% to Japan, 22% to Belgium, and 13% to the US.What we identified is
0:54:34 > 0:54:39that there is no correlation between the siting of offices and an
0:54:39 > 0:54:43increase in exports and investment. We need to be able to close the
0:54:43 > 0:54:47circle and make sure the offices are delivering for the Welsh economy.
0:54:47 > 0:54:55Bridges for Welsh businesses.Boots on the ground is not sufficient.
0:54:55 > 0:54:58What you need is a physical presence, but you also need a
0:54:58 > 0:55:03strategy. We need to be clear about where the opportunities are and
0:55:03 > 0:55:11where the threats are in terms of a reduction of export that's what we
0:55:11 > 0:55:18don't have.The Welsh government disputes figures but new performance
0:55:18 > 0:55:21indicators are being introduced to boost results and match success in
0:55:21 > 0:55:26the future.We need to make sure that anybody who works for the Welsh
0:55:26 > 0:55:29government abroad is aware of their purpose and aware of the
0:55:29 > 0:55:34expectations that Welsh government have on them.The five new offices
0:55:34 > 0:55:37open next year, and will be expected to paint a positive picture of Wales
0:55:37 > 0:55:42to the world, and allow Welsh businesses to make their mark
0:55:42 > 0:55:45internationally. If that doesn't happen, the Government will have
0:55:45 > 0:55:46questions to answer.
0:55:46 > 0:55:47questions to answer.
0:55:47 > 0:55:49Tomorrow MPs will debate the so-called Welsh and Scottish
0:55:49 > 0:55:52amendments to the Brexit Withdrawal Bill.
0:55:52 > 0:55:55Carwyn Jones and Nicola Strugeon say the bill is a "power grab"
0:55:55 > 0:55:58by Westminster at the expense of Cardiff Bay and Holyrood.
0:55:58 > 0:56:00UK Ministers say that's not true, so where does the truth lie?
0:56:00 > 0:56:03Doctor Jo Hunt from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre
0:56:03 > 0:56:07is here to explain it all.
0:56:07 > 0:56:11is here to explain it all.
0:56:11 > 0:56:16Hopefully! It's essentially that some of the powers will be
0:56:16 > 0:56:21returning, which are devolved, and the UK Government says we will hold
0:56:21 > 0:56:25onto them for now. The Welsh and Scottish Government say, no, we'll
0:56:25 > 0:56:33have them now.In a nutshell. We've got two days coming up next week
0:56:33 > 0:56:37where the House of Commons will be looking at the devolution clauses,
0:56:37 > 0:56:42they are now part of the withdrawal bill. Clauses ten and 11. 11 is the
0:56:42 > 0:56:48one that is causing headaches, the controversial one. It's about where
0:56:48 > 0:56:54does power go. At the moment we've got those devolution statutes, the
0:56:54 > 0:56:57Government of Wales act, and the Scotland act, that set out
0:56:57 > 0:57:03distribution of power. Those areas where the Welsh government and Welsh
0:57:03 > 0:57:07Assembly, Scottish Parliament and government are primarily responsible
0:57:07 > 0:57:12in policy areas. The big one is health, and education, but
0:57:12 > 0:57:16agriculture and fisheries as well. We have seen some cooling and
0:57:16 > 0:57:22sharing of powers in lot of these areas as part of the EU. They are
0:57:22 > 0:57:28seen at the moment as law comes from the EU implemented the UK. By London
0:57:28 > 0:57:33and by Cardiff and by Scotland. The issue is when those powers come back
0:57:33 > 0:57:37do they follow the devolution settlement is, and the Welsh and
0:57:37 > 0:57:41Scottish Government are making it clear, yes, that is where they
0:57:41 > 0:57:45should go. They should be scope for policy decisions taken in those
0:57:45 > 0:57:50areas. The UK Government says that they need to press the pause button
0:57:50 > 0:57:54and take these things back to Whitehall and Westminster, and then
0:57:54 > 0:57:59decide what might be needed for the UK's future.
0:57:59 > 0:58:06There was talk of a holding pattern. I guess it comes down to the UK
0:58:06 > 0:58:09Government saying, look, we expect the devolved administrations to have
0:58:09 > 0:58:12more powers at the end of this process.
0:58:12 > 0:58:15We just need to hold onto them for now.
0:58:15 > 0:58:20Is it a lack of trust between Hollywood and Cardiff Bay towards
0:58:20 > 0:58:26Westminster? Or is there something else, a deeper problem?
0:58:26 > 0:58:32The issue of trust is heard over and over again, each side saying trust
0:58:32 > 0:58:37us, we are not necessarily seeing that reciprocated across the border.
0:58:37 > 0:58:43This legislation is designed to be transitional, temporary. But when we
0:58:43 > 0:58:47look at the devolution clauses, the ones that hold the power was back to
0:58:47 > 0:58:51Westminster and Whitehall, and also have implications for devolved
0:58:51 > 0:58:57ministers, perhaps, when we look at those provisions we don't see the
0:58:57 > 0:59:01same temporary conditions. So that clause 11 doesn't have the sunset
0:59:01 > 0:59:06clause that we see across other clauses. These will only last two
0:59:06 > 0:59:11years. We don't have that clause 11. The concern is that we are setting
0:59:11 > 0:59:16in place a new constitutional structure for the UK, that once
0:59:16 > 0:59:23we've got it there may be difficult to upend it. So the concerns around
0:59:23 > 0:59:28this are about setting in train a new distribution of powers, or new
0:59:28 > 0:59:33defaults, for the future.So what is the workaround? It seems this
0:59:33 > 0:59:38morning that the UK Government, to an extent from Alan Cairns last
0:59:38 > 0:59:42week, say we might amend the legislation, what is the easiest
0:59:42 > 0:59:49workaround, do you think?From the Welsh and Scottish Government
0:59:49 > 0:59:53positions we know that the first ministers are continuing to make the
0:59:53 > 0:59:59position that they will not be legislative consent from, it won't
0:59:59 > 1:00:04be recommended, from their parliaments or assemblies. If that
1:00:04 > 1:00:09concerns are not dealt with. If we look at clause 11, we hear about red
1:00:09 > 1:00:13lines, but the one he says that if that clause doesn't go the
1:00:13 > 1:00:15legislative consent won't be coming from devolved parliaments and
1:00:15 > 1:00:21assemblies. So for the Welsh and Scottish governments and parliaments
1:00:21 > 1:00:27it seems to be that we are standing by nothing less than removing that
1:00:27 > 1:00:33clause 11. That could be done, and there could be other forms of
1:00:33 > 1:00:36memorandums, understandings and agreements outside the legislation,
1:00:36 > 1:00:41that say we agree. We will move forward and work together in these
1:00:41 > 1:00:47areas. And rather than these things being imposed on us.One of the
1:00:47 > 1:00:51things, in agriculture, Alan Cairns say we need a UK wide framework,
1:00:51 > 1:00:55even though it is devolved you need a UK framework, it's better to agree
1:00:55 > 1:01:01that before passing on the devolved element, does that make sense? To an
1:01:01 > 1:01:05extent the Welsh and Scottish Government will say, well, you could
1:01:05 > 1:01:10devolved it and then we will agree rather an agree on Ben devolved?
1:01:10 > 1:01:15Those frameworks are already there. We inherited them from the EU. EU
1:01:15 > 1:01:20law has done that work. It made sure we don't have substantial problems
1:01:20 > 1:01:26as far as free movement within the UK. We don't have great diversity,
1:01:26 > 1:01:30and great divergence between different parts of the UK in key
1:01:30 > 1:01:33policy areas. Concerns are, when that framework for the way, will
1:01:33 > 1:01:39there then merge greater differences, when we are using these
1:01:39 > 1:01:47devolved powers? That is the demand for common frameworks, to continue
1:01:47 > 1:01:49those common frameworks. These Scottish and Welsh government are
1:01:49 > 1:01:55saying we accept and agree that it is everybody's interests to have
1:01:55 > 1:01:58these common frameworks, but they have to be commonly agreed.We will
1:01:58 > 1:02:01be keeping an eye on it. For now, find you for coming in.
1:02:01 > 1:02:03For now, find you for coming in.
1:02:03 > 1:02:04That's it from us for another week.
1:02:04 > 1:02:07Don't forget about The Hour, tomorrow on BBC One Wales at 10:40,
1:02:07 > 1:02:09where the topic up for discussion will be immigration.
1:02:09 > 1:02:12You can follow us on Twitter at all hours of course,
1:02:12 > 1:02:14we're @walespolitics, but for now that's all from me.
1:02:14 > 1:02:16Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching.
1:02:16 > 1:02:16Time to go back to Sarah.
1:02:26 > 1:02:27Welcome back.
1:02:27 > 1:02:34Tom, Isabel and Steve are still with me.
1:02:34 > 1:02:38Let's talk about a couple of the interviews we heard earlier in the
1:02:38 > 1:02:42programme. Let's start with Michael Howard. He was putting up a very
1:02:42 > 1:02:46strong defence of Damian Green and harsh criticism of the police who
1:02:46 > 1:02:51had been speaking out saying they had reservations about what Damian
1:02:51 > 1:02:56Green had been doing with his Parliamentary computer. We surprised
1:02:56 > 1:03:03at that, is about?Not at all. There is much support for Damian Green,
1:03:03 > 1:03:06including Labour MPs. It is in relation to how the police have
1:03:06 > 1:03:10behaved over this. There is discomfort among MPs about how the
1:03:10 > 1:03:14police were involved in this. Most people will have forgotten the
1:03:14 > 1:03:18various dramas around that some years ago when police were invited
1:03:18 > 1:03:23into the Commons over a leak investigation. MPs feel that was no
1:03:23 > 1:03:27place for officers to be and they are uncomfortable about the leaking
1:03:27 > 1:03:31of this confidential information. I think the question now is whether
1:03:31 > 1:03:36Damian Green has lied about what he did although she is ago. To me,
1:03:36 > 1:03:41personally, and too many Tory MPs, whether or not he viewed pawn ten
1:03:41 > 1:03:47years ago or however long it was ago, it was clearly inappropriate
1:03:47 > 1:03:50behaviour on an office computer. Perhaps if he had acknowledged it
1:03:50 > 1:03:55and said he was going through a hard time, he might get away with it. If
1:03:55 > 1:03:59it is proven he lied and he is finished, whether or not there are a
1:03:59 > 1:04:04lot of sympathetic MPs over the way he is being treated here.It is
1:04:04 > 1:04:09interesting how many MPs are sympathetic. David Davis has
1:04:09 > 1:04:19threatened to resign from the Cabinet is Damian Green went.This
1:04:19 > 1:04:20threatened to resign from the goes back ten, 15 years of Tory
1:04:20 > 1:04:25Party history. David Davis, Damian Green and Theresa May or worked very
1:04:25 > 1:04:30closely together. They were horrified about the immigration
1:04:30 > 1:04:34papers leaks. It was proven to be a pretty bad thing that was done and
1:04:34 > 1:04:38the police apologise. Moving on to where we are now, it strikes me that
1:04:38 > 1:04:45Theresa May is downed if she does find Damian Green for being a
1:04:45 > 1:04:50cover-up rather than the crime himself, he has made a series of
1:04:50 > 1:04:53statements about pornography on his computer, it is not the possession
1:04:53 > 1:04:58but how he tried to disguise it was there. If she fires him, then she
1:04:58 > 1:05:03will have terrible troubles with the likes of David Davis and people
1:05:03 > 1:05:05furious in the party, Andrew Mitchell furious that the police are
1:05:05 > 1:05:12calling the shots. If she does not fire him, as some ministers in
1:05:12 > 1:05:21government, some Tory MPs, who think it is impossible for him to stay on
1:05:21 > 1:05:23with the mess as it currently is and his inconsistencies. She has made
1:05:23 > 1:05:26this worse for herself by sitting on, if not the full report but the
1:05:26 > 1:05:29substance of it for some time now. You think surely has the report that
1:05:29 > 1:05:34has not looked at it yet.She has not seen the full report but has
1:05:34 > 1:05:38been kept up to date with where it is going and what the findings are.
1:05:38 > 1:05:43She has been forced to take a very tough decision, like Angela Merkel
1:05:43 > 1:05:49always has and survived in politics very well, by simply not taking that
1:05:49 > 1:05:52decision, sometimes it works brilliantly and events work-out but
1:05:52 > 1:05:59sometimes it gets deeper.Barry Gardner was talking about Labour's
1:05:59 > 1:06:03EU policies was that he would not rule out a second referendum. He
1:06:03 > 1:06:08made it clear it was not party policy at the moment. I was asking
1:06:08 > 1:06:13about Jeremy Corbyn saying he would not rule out a second referendum.
1:06:13 > 1:06:17Saying it was a possibility if there was a two thirds threshold on it,
1:06:17 > 1:06:23which is a new idea.The position of the Labour Party, and the smart one
1:06:23 > 1:06:28for the time being, is to do what Harold Wilson used to call keep all
1:06:28 > 1:06:34options open. If there are big cries for another referendum, opinion
1:06:34 > 1:06:40polls from some of them who voted Brexit when they see a deal, the
1:06:40 > 1:06:43Labour leadership will come around and say they will support a
1:06:43 > 1:06:48referendum. They are being wholly pragmatic about this, as most
1:06:48 > 1:06:53opposition parties are when dealing with Europe. Before 97, Tony Blair
1:06:53 > 1:06:57was in favour of the single currency but loving the pound. This ambiguity
1:06:57 > 1:07:02is a feature of politics in Europe. They are in a broadly smart position
1:07:02 > 1:07:11for now.Ambiguity, some might call it inconsistency.I call it cynicism
1:07:11 > 1:07:19myself.Can it work for them?It is extraordinary cynical. I have seen
1:07:19 > 1:07:24some lame polls of small samples which purport to show there is a
1:07:24 > 1:07:28contingency of people who want another referendum. It comes down to
1:07:28 > 1:07:32how you phrase the question. This was the biggest democratic mandate
1:07:32 > 1:07:36for a decision to be taken that we have had in history. Most people
1:07:36 > 1:07:41just want Brexit to get gone. I think there is an extraordinary 50
1:07:41 > 1:07:46quid Brexit at the moment, even amongst the people who wanted to
1:07:46 > 1:07:50happen. People wanted over with nets get on with building the new feature
1:07:50 > 1:07:59for the country. -- and let's get on.
1:07:59 > 1:08:02Now, you know how the old cliche goes: if you're not a Liberal
1:08:02 > 1:08:04when you're young then you've no heart.
1:08:04 > 1:08:06And if you're not a Conservative when you're old,
1:08:06 > 1:08:07then you've no brain.
1:08:07 > 1:08:09Well, it seems the Conservative Party might be getting a bit
1:08:09 > 1:08:11worried it's true.
1:08:11 > 1:08:13According to a report in The Guardian this week,
1:08:13 > 1:08:15party chiefs were concerned after surveys of public opinion
1:08:15 > 1:08:17showed that while Conservatives are seen as more credible
1:08:17 > 1:08:20on their policies, Labour are well ahead amongst voters when it
1:08:20 > 1:08:21comes to compassion.
1:08:21 > 1:08:23But can that be right, and which matters more
1:08:23 > 1:08:24to the British public ?
1:08:24 > 1:08:27We sent reporter Emma Vardy out into the cold with our rather
1:08:27 > 1:08:32unscientific moodbox.
1:08:32 > 1:08:34Tories have been told that polling suggests that people think
1:08:34 > 1:08:37Conservatives are competent when it comes to their policies but not
1:08:37 > 1:08:40caring enough when it comes to their values.
1:08:40 > 1:08:43So, we're in the Tory marginal of Putney to ask people
1:08:43 > 1:08:48what's more important, competence or compassion?
1:08:48 > 1:08:49Compassion.
1:08:49 > 1:08:51Why is that?
1:08:51 > 1:08:53Because it affects all of us.
1:08:53 > 1:08:58Compassion.
1:08:58 > 1:09:01I think they forget that it is real people they are
1:09:01 > 1:09:02governing, it is not just about the budget.
1:09:02 > 1:09:05It is about the budget, obviously, balancing the books, but
1:09:05 > 1:09:09I think you need to think about the little people, like these two.
1:09:09 > 1:09:10Like these.
1:09:10 > 1:09:12Competence, surely.
1:09:12 > 1:09:15Because if they are not, then we're going to
1:09:15 > 1:09:17need even more compassion because there will be even more people
1:09:17 > 1:09:19suffering.
1:09:19 > 1:09:19Thank you so much.
1:09:19 > 1:09:21Thank you.
1:09:21 > 1:09:24There are a lot of competent people who can take care of a job
1:09:24 > 1:09:27but a lot of these competent people don't really have compassion.
1:09:27 > 1:09:28It has to be competence.
1:09:28 > 1:09:29It has to be.
1:09:29 > 1:09:30Why competence?
1:09:30 > 1:09:32At the end of the day, obviously compassion is
1:09:32 > 1:09:37extremely important but due to the state our finances are in,
1:09:37 > 1:09:40competence has to be the way to go, unfortunately.
1:09:40 > 1:09:41Competence, I think.
1:09:41 > 1:09:42Why's that?
1:09:42 > 1:09:45Well, because they seem to be paid
1:09:45 > 1:09:48very well and don't have a lot of competence and fail this country
1:09:48 > 1:09:51miserably.
1:09:51 > 1:09:55People need to have a heart.
1:09:55 > 1:09:58People need to have a heart.
1:09:58 > 1:10:00If they're competent and don't have a heart, it's worthless.
1:10:00 > 1:10:02Competence.
1:10:02 > 1:10:03You can't have fools running the country.
1:10:03 > 1:10:05Well, I think that anybody who is in parliament
1:10:05 > 1:10:06should be conpetent.
1:10:06 > 1:10:08Otherwise you shouldn't be an MP in the first
1:10:08 > 1:10:10place, whatever party they are.
1:10:10 > 1:10:11Do they have enough compassion?
1:10:11 > 1:10:12No.
1:10:12 > 1:10:14But then who does have enough compassion these days?
1:10:14 > 1:10:16Hardly anybody, my dear.
1:10:16 > 1:10:18Should politicians do it from the heart, do you think?
1:10:18 > 1:10:19No.
1:10:19 > 1:10:21And I think they should do it from the heart.
1:10:21 > 1:10:24I think they just swerve everything.
1:10:24 > 1:10:27I am a heart on my sleeve man and I love that honesty,
1:10:27 > 1:10:28that genuine feel, enthusiasm.
1:10:28 > 1:10:29I can tell you are.
1:10:29 > 1:10:30I'm feeling the warmth.
1:10:30 > 1:10:31Thank you very much.
1:10:31 > 1:10:32Pleasure.
1:10:32 > 1:10:35Seems like it could be time for the Tory Party to
1:10:35 > 1:10:37enter the season of goodwill.
1:10:37 > 1:10:39Here in Putney, it was a narrow victory
1:10:39 > 1:10:45over competence for compassion.
1:10:45 > 1:10:49over competence for compassion.
1:10:50 > 1:10:54Emma in Putney. Let's bring the discussion into the studio. Are the
1:10:54 > 1:11:02Tories right? M BBC and is competent and not compassionate? Does it
1:11:02 > 1:11:07matter?The bigger worry is that they are not being seen as competent
1:11:07 > 1:11:12and that is fatal for a government. The two are connected full study
1:11:12 > 1:11:17cannot be compassionate because that involves public spending if you are
1:11:17 > 1:11:23not competent. With respect to the brilliant film, it is a slight
1:11:23 > 1:11:30juxtaposition. Many Tory MPs return from the last election saying we are
1:11:30 > 1:11:35seen again as the mean party. I was getting endless complaints about
1:11:35 > 1:11:40school cuts, health cuts and so on. But competence is the key. If you
1:11:40 > 1:11:47lose that, you're doomed as the Government.Time for Theresa May to
1:11:47 > 1:11:53start hugging huskies?That so well. I broadly agree with Steve,
1:11:53 > 1:11:58obviously you have to be competent. This is a huge problem for the Tory
1:11:58 > 1:12:01Party, particularly among young voters thought it was high time the
1:12:01 > 1:12:08Tory Party stopped letting labour monopolise the moral high ground on
1:12:08 > 1:12:12everything. Apart from the fact I'm sure he believes it in his heart
1:12:12 > 1:12:17when you are seeing figures like Michael Gove really embracing
1:12:17 > 1:12:20so-called softer causes like environmentalism and animal welfare.
1:12:20 > 1:12:27The Tories must do that to win over young voters.They have did do that.
1:12:27 > 1:12:32Can they do it?Compassion versus competence is the age of problem the
1:12:32 > 1:12:37Tory Party have had for years and it is the same with the Labour Party.
1:12:37 > 1:12:43Tony Blair pulled that trick brilliantly in 1997. The Tories can
1:12:43 > 1:12:52do that. But it will not shift the barometer too much. To make inroads
1:12:52 > 1:12:57on compassion, the Tories will have to reorganise whether money is in
1:12:57 > 1:13:01Britain and help out younger people, the socially immobile. That is where
1:13:01 > 1:13:08the problem is. They have no money and no majority. If you cannot get
1:13:08 > 1:13:11stuffed through the House of Commons you cannot change the country. That
1:13:11 > 1:13:16is where they will be stuck until the next election.Thank you all for
1:13:16 > 1:13:22being with us this afternoon.
1:13:22 > 1:13:25That's all for today - thanks to all my guests
1:13:25 > 1:13:26and my three amigos here.
1:13:26 > 1:13:28Join me again next Sunday at 11 here on BBC One
1:13:28 > 1:13:29for more Sunday Politics.
1:13:29 > 1:13:34Until then, bye-bye.
1:13:34 > 1:13:36Until then, bye-bye.