0:00:38 > 0:00:41Morning everyone and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44I'm Sarah Smith and I'll be bringing you your essential briefing
0:00:44 > 0:00:46on all the top political stories this week.
0:00:46 > 0:00:49She's done the easy bit, now comes the hard part.
0:00:49 > 0:00:52As we move on to trade and transition talks with the EU,
0:00:52 > 0:00:57just what sort of deal is the Prime Minister aiming for?
0:00:57 > 0:00:59The issue of trade across the Irish border is likely to dominate
0:00:59 > 0:01:02those talks, we'll speak to the Northern Ireland
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Secretary James Brokenshire about what he thinks a solution
0:01:04 > 0:01:07to the problem could look like.
0:01:07 > 0:01:09Momentum, the group set up to support Jeremy Corbyn,
0:01:09 > 0:01:12is facing allegations it's trying to take over the Labour
0:01:12 > 0:01:15party, we'll investigate.
0:01:15 > 0:01:18Later in the programme: How much money's needed to run the Assembly?
0:01:18 > 0:01:21With an increase in the pipeline, critics say it spends too much.
0:01:21 > 0:01:22We'll hear from the Presiding Officer.
0:01:22 > 0:01:31Is the government doing enough? Presiding Officer.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34All that coming up in the programme. Presiding Officer.
0:01:34 > 0:01:40And with me today to try to make sense of is all, three journalists
0:01:40 > 0:01:42who are in full alignment with this week's political developments.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44Tim Shipman, Helen Lewis and Toby Young.
0:01:44 > 0:01:48The cliche that a week is a long time in politics has
0:01:48 > 0:01:51As Theresa May first appeared to be the brink of collapse,
0:01:51 > 0:01:54and then claimed victory with a deal to allow Brexit talks to move
0:01:54 > 0:01:55on to the next phase.
0:01:55 > 0:01:58Deal or no deal?
0:01:58 > 0:02:00The question that took Theresa May to Brussels not
0:02:00 > 0:02:02once but twice this week.
0:02:02 > 0:02:04On Monday it seemed it was all sorted.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06Time to move onto talks about trade.
0:02:06 > 0:02:08Then in stepped Arlene Foster.
0:02:08 > 0:02:13Northern Ireland must leave the European
0:02:13 > 0:02:16Union on the same terms as the rest of the United Kingdom.
0:02:16 > 0:02:19So lunch was left to go cold in Brussels as the
0:02:19 > 0:02:21PM rushed home to try and save the deal.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24The problem ran along the Irish border.
0:02:24 > 0:02:27Did promises of regulatory alignment mean Northern
0:02:27 > 0:02:30Ireland would operate differently from the rest of the UK?
0:02:30 > 0:02:32Unionist alarm bells could be heard in
0:02:32 > 0:02:36Westminster where Theresa May relies on their support.
0:02:36 > 0:02:38While others saw their chance to tell their own
0:02:38 > 0:02:43bespoke Brexit deal.
0:02:43 > 0:02:47So back to the drawing board and a chance for
0:02:47 > 0:02:48What an embarrassment. board and a chance for
0:02:48 > 0:02:51Shambles. board and a chance for
0:02:51 > 0:02:53The last 24 hours have given a new meaning to
0:02:53 > 0:02:54the phrase coalition of chaos.
0:02:54 > 0:02:58There was a tricky moment for the Brexit
0:02:58 > 0:03:01secretary as he was quizzed over his economic impact studies that don't
0:03:01 > 0:03:05actually exist.
0:03:05 > 0:03:06actually exist.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08So there isn't one, for example, on the automotive
0:03:08 > 0:03:10sector.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12On the automotive sector.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14Is there one on aerospace?
0:03:14 > 0:03:15No.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17One on financial services?
0:03:17 > 0:03:20I think the answer is going to be no to all of
0:03:20 > 0:03:21them.
0:03:21 > 0:03:22Right.
0:03:22 > 0:03:24By the Chancellor admitted the Cabinet has not yet
0:03:24 > 0:03:25debated future European trading relations.
0:03:25 > 0:03:27The Cabinet has had general discussions about how Brexit
0:03:27 > 0:03:30negotiations but we haven't had a specific, er, mandate of the
0:03:30 > 0:03:33position.
0:03:33 > 0:03:37At Prime Minister's Questions Brexiteers reminded the PM
0:03:37 > 0:03:41they too had lines they wouldn't cross.
0:03:41 > 0:03:50Will she apply a new coat of paint to her red lines because I
0:03:50 > 0:03:53fear on Monday they were beginning to look a little bit pink.
0:03:53 > 0:03:54Talks through the night on Thursday and
0:03:54 > 0:03:55finally, white smoke.
0:03:55 > 0:03:57Tweeted by Jean-Claude Juncker's chief of staff
0:03:57 > 0:03:59to signal a deal had been done.
0:03:59 > 0:04:004am Friday.
0:04:00 > 0:04:02The red eye back to Brussels, the Brexit Secretary's
0:04:02 > 0:04:04face told the story of a long night.
0:04:04 > 0:04:09A tweak of the words and a deal agreed.
0:04:09 > 0:04:11Sufficient progress has now been made on the strict
0:04:11 > 0:04:12terms of the divorce.
0:04:12 > 0:04:15Not everyone was happy.
0:04:15 > 0:04:17There are still matters there that we would have liked
0:04:17 > 0:04:19to have seen clarified.
0:04:19 > 0:04:21The whole thing is a humiliation.
0:04:21 > 0:04:23In a letter yesterday Environment Secretary Michael Gove
0:04:23 > 0:04:26said voters could change the deal if they don't like it.
0:04:26 > 0:04:30At the next general election.
0:04:30 > 0:04:34At the next general election.
0:04:34 > 0:04:38Let's unpack a week of remarkable political developments with our
0:04:38 > 0:04:42panel.
0:04:42 > 0:04:45Tim, the papers are claiming a marvellous victory for Theresa May,
0:04:45 > 0:04:51but this is a problem of her own making she managed to dig herself
0:04:51 > 0:04:54out of?The government announced immediately they had got a deal and
0:04:54 > 0:04:59it took them two and a half weeks to nail it down. It is worth
0:04:59 > 0:05:03remembering that when she went off to Brussels to Jean-Claude Juncker
0:05:03 > 0:05:09who said, don't come here unless you are ready to go. Theresa May kicked
0:05:09 > 0:05:13him out of his office for an hour while she begged Arlene Foster to
0:05:13 > 0:05:17get in line and initially, it wasn't happening because they hadn't nailed
0:05:17 > 0:05:22it down. People say, why weren't all these civil servants and people who
0:05:22 > 0:05:27know about how to deal with these guys, engaged in this process? The
0:05:27 > 0:05:31separation between the Northern Ireland Office and Downing Street,
0:05:31 > 0:05:33the whip office was negligent and they should have been holding hands
0:05:33 > 0:05:38with the DUP and Tilly was taken over the line. Disaster was only
0:05:38 > 0:05:45narrowly averted. They were saying earlier in the week, this is a
0:05:45 > 0:05:49catastrophe and Theresa May needs to go.But she pulled it out in the
0:05:49 > 0:05:54end. We were talking about takeover plots, Theresa May might lose her
0:05:54 > 0:05:59job and now it is a victory.When you are talking about this, you have
0:05:59 > 0:06:03to divorce the theatre around it and the last-minute concessions, which
0:06:03 > 0:06:08will not end. The question is what happens when the Forge recedes.
0:06:08 > 0:06:12Everyone has something out of this deal because there is no clarity.
0:06:12 > 0:06:17Arlene Foster said they wanted clarity. Both sides when they get
0:06:17 > 0:06:21the clarity will be unhappy, but the question is what they will do about
0:06:21 > 0:06:27it.Toby, both people on both sides of the Brexit debate in the Tory
0:06:27 > 0:06:31party, who are claiming they are very, very happy. They can't all be
0:06:31 > 0:06:39happy.I am not surprised the Brexiteers our content. There are
0:06:39 > 0:06:42various things the remain as predicted couldn't be achieved. They
0:06:42 > 0:06:48thought they would be a backbench rebellion. Now that looks like the
0:06:48 > 0:06:53divorce bill will sail through. A lot of Remainers thought the state
0:06:53 > 0:07:03is of EU nationals would remain uncertain for long time. This makes
0:07:03 > 0:07:08no Deal Brexit less likely that was always the Remainers best of
0:07:08 > 0:07:12reversing the result of the referendum.Now we're left with the
0:07:12 > 0:07:18question, what does full alignment mean. David Davis asked that that
0:07:18 > 0:07:18this morning.
0:07:18 > 0:07:20It means outcomes.
0:07:20 > 0:07:21It means...
0:07:21 > 0:07:23If I arrived in two cars, they are next
0:07:23 > 0:07:24to each other.
0:07:24 > 0:07:26Well, Northern Ireland is next to the Republic of Ireland.
0:07:26 > 0:07:29Yes, and it will have next to regulations, it will be very
0:07:29 > 0:07:30similar.
0:07:30 > 0:07:31There will be some similarities.
0:07:31 > 0:07:33Again, the Prime Minister laid this out in her
0:07:33 > 0:07:35Florence speech.
0:07:35 > 0:07:37She said there are areas where we will want similar
0:07:37 > 0:07:39outcomes and we'll have similar methods to achieve them.
0:07:39 > 0:07:42There will be areas where we have similar
0:07:42 > 0:07:45outcomes where there will be different methods to achieve them.
0:07:45 > 0:07:48That's going to be true of a lot of product areas, a lot of
0:07:48 > 0:07:49manufacturing.
0:07:49 > 0:07:52There will be areas where we want different outcomes and
0:07:52 > 0:07:56we will use different methods.
0:07:56 > 0:08:01That was clear as mud, Toby, what do you think full alignment means?I
0:08:01 > 0:08:06don't think we should spend as much time as you seem to want to,
0:08:06 > 0:08:10discussing it. As Michael Gove clarified, it doesn't have any legal
0:08:10 > 0:08:16force. It doesn't have any binding, legal force. It hasn't got to the
0:08:16 > 0:08:19stage of the treaty. It might be difficult to unwind because it is
0:08:19 > 0:08:24the basis of an agreement. But nonetheless, it is not binding and a
0:08:24 > 0:08:31lot is left to play for.It is what got the DUP on-board, finding a form
0:08:31 > 0:08:36of words which could be what you wanted them to.People wanting
0:08:36 > 0:08:40immigration cut without the economy taking a hit. The same thing with
0:08:40 > 0:08:45the DUP, they want to stay aligned to prison, but they don't want their
0:08:45 > 0:08:49agriculture, Northern Ireland is one of the biggest industries, to take a
0:08:49 > 0:08:54massive hit from a hard border. So you are trying to reconcile two
0:08:54 > 0:09:00contradictory impulses. That Philip Hammond clip is extraordinary saying
0:09:00 > 0:09:03the Cabinet have a discuss where they think this ends up in the end.
0:09:03 > 0:09:10That is where the row will be. Number Ten is specifically briefing
0:09:10 > 0:09:18full alignment, so we haven't solved anything.It is a verb, he converge,
0:09:18 > 0:09:23I don't do converge, we have full alignment. The Conservative Party
0:09:23 > 0:09:28managed to get through a general election where they had half of
0:09:28 > 0:09:35their supporters hardline. This may help them keep the show on the road.
0:09:35 > 0:09:39We will be talking to all three of you throughout the programme.
0:09:39 > 0:09:41So it was the arrangements to avoid a hard border
0:09:41 > 0:09:43between Northern Ireland and the Republic that
0:09:43 > 0:09:45threatened to scupper progress in the Brexit talks.
0:09:45 > 0:09:46And there remains confusion over exactly what it
0:09:46 > 0:09:48is that's been agreed.
0:09:48 > 0:09:50Hopefully we can clarify some of that with the Secretary of State
0:09:50 > 0:09:54for Northern Ireland James Brokenshire.
0:09:54 > 0:09:58Thanks for coming in. Can we go back to the beginning of the week and the
0:09:58 > 0:10:04discussions with the DUP. Where you involved in that?It is worth
0:10:04 > 0:10:08stressing this is a fast-moving situation. When the Prime Minister
0:10:08 > 0:10:12was in Brussels at the start of the week, the text hadn't been agreed.
0:10:12 > 0:10:16That is why we've got the conclusion with the text effectively now being
0:10:16 > 0:10:21able to go on to the second phase. Where you part of the back and
0:10:21 > 0:10:25forward between Number Ten and the DUP?I don't want to get into the
0:10:25 > 0:10:30details, but I have been involved, supporting the Prime Minister and
0:10:30 > 0:10:34making sure we have got sufficient progress and why we have the benefit
0:10:34 > 0:10:39of moving into phase two, which is worth we can solve the issues with
0:10:39 > 0:10:42relation to Northern Ireland.He was a significant failure at the
0:10:42 > 0:10:50beginning of the week to flight to Brussels without the DUP agreeing on
0:10:50 > 0:10:56the text.It was a fast-moving situation.Why go for lunch with
0:10:56 > 0:11:02Jean-Claude Juncker if there wasn't agreed text?It was to continue the
0:11:02 > 0:11:05discussions.The Prime Minister didn't think she had a deal on
0:11:05 > 0:11:08Monday, she went to Brussels knowing there wasn't an agreement with the
0:11:08 > 0:11:14DUP.The text wasn't agreed, as I have underlined on a few occasions
0:11:14 > 0:11:18already in this interview. It is how we have secured what we needed to
0:11:18 > 0:11:24do. We needed to give that assurance in relation to Northern Ireland's
0:11:24 > 0:11:27constitutional status in ensuring trade between Northern Ireland and
0:11:27 > 0:11:31Great Britain could remain unfettered. That is important and we
0:11:31 > 0:11:37can now solve this on phase two.The agreement said there would be full
0:11:37 > 0:11:41alignment with the EU in the event of no deal. It doesn't say anything
0:11:41 > 0:11:46how you will avoid a hard border if there is a trade deal with the EU.
0:11:46 > 0:11:50You are looking at paragraph 49 of the agreement. First and foremost,
0:11:50 > 0:11:56this is about securing a free trade agreement. Secondly, if that isn't
0:11:56 > 0:12:00sufficient you move onto specific solutions to deal with the unique
0:12:00 > 0:12:03circumstances of Northern Ireland. Only through an agreed outcome, do
0:12:03 > 0:12:08you move on to the issue of alignment, which I'm sure we will
0:12:08 > 0:12:12discuss further.Your preferred option is to have the free trade.
0:12:12 > 0:12:19Absolutely.Nothing has been solved on how you avoid a hard border
0:12:19 > 0:12:22between Northern Ireland and the republic if you have a free-trade
0:12:22 > 0:12:29deal.We were never going to solve this in the first phase how this
0:12:29 > 0:12:34agreement, we want to secure is firmly in Ireland's interest, given
0:12:34 > 0:12:38the nature of trade between Ireland and the whole of the United Kingdom.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42That is why we go into this second phase with confidence we can secure
0:12:42 > 0:12:48the positive outcome, which is the best way to solve this.The Irish
0:12:48 > 0:12:52Taoiseach says it is clear in which way it is going. He says we believe
0:12:52 > 0:12:56the UK and Northern Ireland will remain in alignment with the EU. Is
0:12:56 > 0:13:03that your understanding?I think he underlines we could come to
0:13:03 > 0:13:06different arrangements. It wasn't about the same, somehow we would
0:13:06 > 0:13:12stay within the customs union, the single market. We are not. The text
0:13:12 > 0:13:15says clearly, we are leaving and Northern Ireland will be part of
0:13:15 > 0:13:23that. Having shared outcomes may mean we may achieve that to the same
0:13:23 > 0:13:28or substantially the same way, or very differently.It cannot be too
0:13:28 > 0:13:31different if you have to maintain this idea you don't have a hard
0:13:31 > 0:13:35border between Northern Ireland and the republic. How does this allow
0:13:35 > 0:13:39you to strike free trade deals with the United States for instance, if
0:13:39 > 0:13:42you have got to maintain either alignment or come to some of the
0:13:42 > 0:13:44United States for instance, if you have got to maintain either
0:13:44 > 0:13:47alignment or come to some other border solution?Let's take a couple
0:13:47 > 0:13:49of examples. In relation to data daylight, have your prescription
0:13:49 > 0:13:57service nor those -- north or south of the border. How that can converge
0:13:57 > 0:14:05between Ireland and the UK. Things like agriculture.Let's talk about
0:14:05 > 0:14:09agriculture. If we were to strike a free trade deal with the US, they
0:14:09 > 0:14:15have made it clear we will have to diverged from EU rules on some
0:14:15 > 0:14:19agricultural standards, like chlorine washed chicken, how can we
0:14:19 > 0:14:24do the kind of deal the US will insist on and still maintain these
0:14:24 > 0:14:29border arrangements?We are yet to get into those discussions.They
0:14:29 > 0:14:34have been to London and they have said, if we stay too closely aligned
0:14:34 > 0:14:39with the EU we will be able to get a deal with the US.We're not going to
0:14:39 > 0:14:42somehow compromise our food safety standards to have a race to the
0:14:42 > 0:14:46bottom. That is why knowing the integrated nature of the food sector
0:14:46 > 0:14:53on island, is why we said we are proud to look at alignment with
0:14:53 > 0:14:58agricultural standards.That tie your hands. Why does the former
0:14:58 > 0:15:02Brexit minister himself say it will handicap our ability to enter into
0:15:02 > 0:15:08free-trade arrangements?We have difference across the United Kingdom
0:15:08 > 0:15:11over some of these devolved issues. It doesn't create barriers within
0:15:11 > 0:15:19the UK market. We are compliant with the same rules as the EU and it is
0:15:19 > 0:15:22positive decisions we might take. When it comes down to this issue,
0:15:22 > 0:15:26there won't be this race to the bottom in relation to standards.It
0:15:26 > 0:15:32is important to understand. You are tying the government's hands in its
0:15:32 > 0:15:37ability to strike the free trade deals that was supposed to create
0:15:37 > 0:15:41the optimistic post Brexit future proclaimed by the government.It is
0:15:41 > 0:15:45why we want to yes, secure the positive free-trade agreement, Abbas
0:15:45 > 0:15:50Bogue agreement with our EU partners, but equally, which we
0:15:50 > 0:15:53don't have, the flexibility to negotiate trade deals around the
0:15:53 > 0:16:00world so have the benefit of having to do that.
0:16:00 > 0:16:04The answer to this free trade deals is how you manage the border between
0:16:04 > 0:16:09the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, that has not been answered.
0:16:09 > 0:16:12We've set up the framework, we've not been able to have these
0:16:12 > 0:16:16discussions yet. That's why it was so important, where it was a really
0:16:16 > 0:16:20positive achievement that Theresa May secured by moving into phase two
0:16:20 > 0:16:24where we can do just that. To look at all these different elements we
0:16:24 > 0:16:28been working hard on with the EU that need to be solved whether
0:16:28 > 0:16:32through the free trade agreement, whether through specific
0:16:32 > 0:16:39circumstances to meet these issues, and protecting the ability from
0:16:39 > 0:16:47people to move from Northern Ireland's, into the Republic, really
0:16:47 > 0:16:50importantly underlining the significance of the Good Friday
0:16:50 > 0:16:54Agreement.The Prime Minister significantly said no deal was
0:16:54 > 0:16:58better than a bad deal. What this means in Brussels as if there is no
0:16:58 > 0:17:02do we have to stay in full alignment with the rules and regulations, is
0:17:02 > 0:17:07that the possible?Is the document states, nothing is agreed until
0:17:07 > 0:17:13everything is agreed.In the situation of no deal, nothing would
0:17:13 > 0:17:18be agreed and that is the circumstance in which this deal
0:17:18 > 0:17:22kicks in...?This document doesn't commit in that way. We are not
0:17:22 > 0:17:28contemplating a notable situation. The Prime Minister has frequently
0:17:28 > 0:17:32contemplated that, saying no deal is better than a bad deal.I think it
0:17:32 > 0:17:38says this in a good way, to secure this positive outcome that agreement
0:17:38 > 0:17:44with our EU partners. We will only do that if it is acceptable. Under
0:17:44 > 0:17:49the no deal statements that the Prime Minister has made.When this
0:17:49 > 0:17:53agreement says, in the event of no deal, we will maintain full
0:17:53 > 0:17:59alignment, you say this doesn't mean no deal?This document doesn't deal
0:17:59 > 0:18:04with no deal. That's what I'm saying. Paragraph five...So in the
0:18:04 > 0:18:08absence of agreed solutions the UK will maintain full alignment with
0:18:08 > 0:18:14the rules of the customs union? Paragraph five scissors and
0:18:14 > 0:18:20agreement being reached...So you need an agreement before you have
0:18:20 > 0:18:23absence of agreed solutions.It is about the three tiered approach will
0:18:23 > 0:18:27take, free-trade agreements, dealing with unique circumstances and then
0:18:27 > 0:18:31moving onto the alignment issues. It is this three tiered approach that
0:18:31 > 0:18:36will inform the negotiations. This is why I say this provides us with a
0:18:36 > 0:18:40positive backdrop to go into phase two, to get positive outcomes in
0:18:40 > 0:18:43ensuring there is no barrier between the Republic of Ireland and Northern
0:18:43 > 0:18:50Ireland. I take the positive viewpoint, around getting agreement,
0:18:50 > 0:18:54securing that bright positive future for Northern Ireland and the UK as a
0:18:54 > 0:19:01whole which is what that does.James Brokenshire, thank you. Tim, are you
0:19:01 > 0:19:07a clearer? On what has been agreed? Much less clear. What is the scope
0:19:07 > 0:19:11of this alignment issue? If you listen to government ministers, and
0:19:11 > 0:19:14David Davis earlier and James has said nothing that contradicts that,
0:19:14 > 0:19:19you are talking about big areas like agriculture and energy. David Davis
0:19:19 > 0:19:23said it would cover four areas, is put to someone in the Irish
0:19:23 > 0:19:26government has said and covered 142 areas, there's quite a big gap
0:19:26 > 0:19:30between them and we haven't yet bridged that intellectually, it
0:19:30 > 0:19:36seems.And not much clearer on what if there is no deal.We would crash
0:19:36 > 0:19:39out which would be definitely worse than a bad deal. An appalling
0:19:39 > 0:19:44outcome. I think the whole issue of these agricultural standards is
0:19:44 > 0:19:48fascinating because it reveals the difference between the average Leave
0:19:48 > 0:19:54voter and the average person on the right, the free trader who is not
0:19:54 > 0:19:58worried about safety standards and is fine with chlorine tipped chicken
0:19:58 > 0:20:02but we no one that free-trade Dale got bounced out of contention one
0:20:02 > 0:20:06thing that revolted people with the idea of lower animal safety
0:20:06 > 0:20:09standards, food covered in bacteria then washed in chlorine. So you have
0:20:09 > 0:20:14one wing of the Tory party who are OK with that and people who voted
0:20:14 > 0:20:21Leave who are not.Is it still on the table, this idea of no deal?It
0:20:21 > 0:20:27has to be, until we've concluded a deal, because otherwise our
0:20:27 > 0:20:30negotiating position is weaker. In some ways the way that we've managed
0:20:30 > 0:20:34to agree on what the status of EU National 's would-be and what the
0:20:34 > 0:20:38role of the ECJ would be for eight years after we leave, suggest that
0:20:38 > 0:20:43even in the absence of a trade deal or even a transition deal being
0:20:43 > 0:20:46successfully negotiated we could nonetheless put a minimal deal in
0:20:46 > 0:20:49place which could guarantee the rights of UK National is here and
0:20:49 > 0:20:55British nationals in Europe. So in that way it makes no deal a little
0:20:55 > 0:21:00less unpalatable but I think we will still get a deal.Thanks for that.
0:21:00 > 0:21:02Well, discussions of what the government wants its final
0:21:02 > 0:21:05deal to look like also brings into focus what Labour's
0:21:05 > 0:21:06plans would be.
0:21:06 > 0:21:08Speaking this morning Labour's Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer
0:21:08 > 0:21:12argued that Britain should remain as close to the EU as possible.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15How we negotiate that agreement with the EU is a matter for
0:21:15 > 0:21:16negotiation.
0:21:16 > 0:21:19It doesn't mean it's cut and paste, but we do have a
0:21:19 > 0:21:23choice, do we want to stay aligned so we can trade successfully or do
0:21:23 > 0:21:24we want to tear apart?
0:21:24 > 0:21:26And I say we should stay aligned.
0:21:26 > 0:21:28We are talking about what sort of Britain we are
0:21:28 > 0:21:31going to be and what the next 40 or 50 years might look like.
0:21:31 > 0:21:33I don't think anybody voted to make it
0:21:33 > 0:21:37harder to trade with Europe.
0:21:37 > 0:21:40Emily Thornberry, Labour's shadow foreign affairs spokesperson, is
0:21:40 > 0:21:44with me now. Thank you for coming in. That was Keir Starmer this
0:21:44 > 0:21:49morning. I don't want to put words into his mouth or yours but I
0:21:49 > 0:21:52interpret that as saying, we are not staying in the single market, that
0:21:52 > 0:21:55is not the Labour position but we want to maintain many of the
0:21:55 > 0:22:00arrangements we have with the single market. Is that right?We've always
0:22:00 > 0:22:04said we have to accept the results of the referendum, we have some
0:22:04 > 0:22:08tests to be abided by to get a good deal so we need to be able to get
0:22:08 > 0:22:12the full advantage of access to the single market and the customs union.
0:22:12 > 0:22:16To achieve that what Keir Starmer seemed to be saying was that was a
0:22:16 > 0:22:21closely aligned to the rules and regulations of the EU, possibly even
0:22:21 > 0:22:24pay for access to the free market and while free movement of people
0:22:24 > 0:22:28wouldn't he said they should be easy movement of people from the UK to
0:22:28 > 0:22:31the EU and vice versa. Is that really respecting the referendum
0:22:31 > 0:22:36result?We have to leave the European Union that there's no
0:22:36 > 0:22:41reason why we don't need go a long way. It would not be respecting the
0:22:41 > 0:22:44referendum and the sentiment that has expressed during the referendum
0:22:44 > 0:22:49if we did not move, after leaving the European Union, to a system
0:22:49 > 0:22:52where we had fair rules and managed migration, so people could easily
0:22:52 > 0:22:58travel across Europe and those that we need to have an ox economy - this
0:22:58 > 0:23:07we need an our economy can stay and that will help us.If we are staying
0:23:07 > 0:23:10closely aligned to the rules and regulations of the EU why we have no
0:23:10 > 0:23:15say in the formation of those rules how is that taking back control?
0:23:15 > 0:23:20We're going to leave and it seems to us that people wanted to leave, they
0:23:20 > 0:23:24wanted some form of control over migration and fair rules and managed
0:23:24 > 0:23:27migration is what we want but they did not vote to lose their jobs
0:23:27 > 0:23:32offer their neighbours to lose their jobs. We need to prioritise the
0:23:32 > 0:23:35economy and trade when it came to negotiations and people should be in
0:23:35 > 0:23:40no doubt that our biggest trading partner is the European Union. It
0:23:40 > 0:23:43would be economically ridiculous for us to march off into the Atlantic
0:23:43 > 0:23:48and say, we are turning our backs on the European Union. To go into deals
0:23:48 > 0:23:53with them we'd need the same rules when it came to our exporting of
0:23:53 > 0:23:57carrots or anything else. If you want to export vacuum cleaners to
0:23:57 > 0:24:00Europe they need to have the same safety standards as the rest of
0:24:00 > 0:24:06Europe.Do you think people who voted to leave will be happy that we
0:24:06 > 0:24:11would follow and mirror the rules and regulations of EU when we have
0:24:11 > 0:24:16no say in their creation now, we become will takers and not makers?
0:24:16 > 0:24:22What we've said is that we need an interim period when we negotiate
0:24:22 > 0:24:25properly and have a long-standing relationship with EU. When it comes
0:24:25 > 0:24:29to exporting goods clearly we need the same standards and don't want to
0:24:29 > 0:24:33undercut European standards, nobody wants and implement controls, we
0:24:33 > 0:24:37need all these things to be less in Britain than in the rest of Europe,
0:24:37 > 0:24:42well, some Tories do but we don't and we are clear about that.That
0:24:42 > 0:24:46would constrain our ability to sign free trade deals with other
0:24:46 > 0:24:51countries. The more closely aligned we stay with EU the less movement we
0:24:51 > 0:24:57will have to sign a new deal with the USA for example.What we need is
0:24:57 > 0:25:00a custom-built arrangement between Britain and the rest of Europe. We'd
0:25:00 > 0:25:04need to be in a form of the customs union and closely aligned to the
0:25:04 > 0:25:08single market and that might give us room to make the that is something
0:25:08 > 0:25:12we need to be involved in negotiation...That is clearly of
0:25:12 > 0:25:17secondary importance to you, the ability to strike new deals with
0:25:17 > 0:25:22third countries.We've always been pragmatic, most of our trade has
0:25:22 > 0:25:25been with EU. We're just stating a fact and we shouldn't put the kibosh
0:25:25 > 0:25:30on that.Are you happy with the agreement Theresa May struck this
0:25:30 > 0:25:35week?Really don't understand it. I've looked at it, I don't
0:25:35 > 0:25:41understand. I think probably what she is doing is she's rubbed at some
0:25:41 > 0:25:44of her red lines, and that's good because you shouldn't go into
0:25:44 > 0:25:48negotiations with hard red lines like she has. I don't understand how
0:25:48 > 0:25:52on one hand she is saying she's going to align and on the other hand
0:25:52 > 0:25:56will be out of the single market on the customs union. It doesn't really
0:25:56 > 0:26:01make any sense to me.I thought that was the position you said Labour
0:26:01 > 0:26:04win, leaving the single market on the customs union but wanting to
0:26:04 > 0:26:09stay aligned to Europe and is regulations...They say they've
0:26:09 > 0:26:14swept any form of customs union of the table. That's what I understand.
0:26:14 > 0:26:17She is swept away any suggestion that the European Court of Justice
0:26:17 > 0:26:20would have anything to do with any rules. She seems to be busily
0:26:20 > 0:26:24putting them back on the table again. That's probably a good thing.
0:26:24 > 0:26:28What a waste of time. Because wouldn't it have been good to have
0:26:28 > 0:26:31began on a pragmatic, realistic basis and we might have got further
0:26:31 > 0:26:36than we have now. We are running out of time.What is Labour's answer to
0:26:36 > 0:26:43the question of the border between the northern Ireland and the
0:26:43 > 0:26:45Republic of Ireland, how do you avoid hardboard?The further we go
0:26:45 > 0:26:49from the EU, the harder it is to have a soft border. What we have
0:26:49 > 0:26:52said without that a form of customs union is a viable option. Melbourne
0:26:52 > 0:26:57has come up with any other suggestion.This idea, it says in
0:26:57 > 0:27:01the agreement that was struck with EU in the absence of any other
0:27:01 > 0:27:05agreement, this idea that we would maintain the full alignment with the
0:27:05 > 0:27:08rules and regulations come you are satisfied that it works well for the
0:27:08 > 0:27:13UK and EU and solves the border question?Of course there has to be
0:27:13 > 0:27:17a form of alignment, of course the European Court of Justice need staff
0:27:17 > 0:27:20an ongoing relationship with British justice in the way we put forward
0:27:20 > 0:27:26rules when we are working with the rest of the EU. Why have we denied
0:27:26 > 0:27:32at all this time, it is self-evident and continues to be so.It is
0:27:32 > 0:27:36proposed that an amendment be put forward that would give MPs a
0:27:36 > 0:27:40meaningful vote on this while there is still time for more negotiation
0:27:40 > 0:27:43rather than at the end of negotiations, will Labour support
0:27:43 > 0:27:48that?We have always said this. From the outset we have said, why should
0:27:48 > 0:27:51parliaments across the rest of Europe have a vote on this, and the
0:27:51 > 0:27:56European Parliament have a vote, the people of Walloons will have a lot
0:27:56 > 0:28:01in it, why not the British people? That has to be a meaningful vote. --
0:28:01 > 0:28:05one at the British Parliament. They will have to factor in what the
0:28:05 > 0:28:08British Parliament thinks. And many people in the British Parliament
0:28:08 > 0:28:11will not accept no deal, for example. If they think they are
0:28:11 > 0:28:14going to come to the British Parliament with no deal is an option
0:28:14 > 0:28:17they have another think coming. There's another amendment to the Lib
0:28:17 > 0:28:22Dems want, to put forward the option of remaining in the single market.
0:28:22 > 0:28:26Vince Cable has said it is specifically designed to flush out
0:28:26 > 0:28:29the Labour Party by asking straight out will you support this amendment
0:28:29 > 0:28:34or not with the option of staying in the single market. How would Labour
0:28:34 > 0:28:40vote on that?We are leaving the EU, we need a custom made deal with the
0:28:40 > 0:28:44EU. We need to be able to respect the views of the British people as
0:28:44 > 0:28:47expressed in the referendum and one debate was about ensuring that we
0:28:47 > 0:28:51have more control of migration. We've been told that the four
0:28:51 > 0:28:54freedoms mean we can't stay in the single market as it currently is so
0:28:54 > 0:28:58we need a different deal. Those other things we should have focused
0:28:58 > 0:29:03on rack from the outset.Emily Thornberry, thank you very much for
0:29:03 > 0:29:05coming in this morning.
0:29:05 > 0:29:08There have been a number of reports in the press recently accusing
0:29:08 > 0:29:10the Labour pressure group Momentum of forcing serving Labour
0:29:10 > 0:29:12councillors off the ballot paper for re-election in favour
0:29:12 > 0:29:13of their own candidates.
0:29:13 > 0:29:16Sources close to Momentum argue they are simply helping to reflect
0:29:16 > 0:29:18the new make-up of the Labour Party.
0:29:18 > 0:29:20So is there any truth in the allegations?
0:29:20 > 0:29:29Elizabeth Glinka has been to Brighton to find out.
0:29:30 > 0:29:32They say to keep your friends close and your
0:29:32 > 0:29:36enemies closer, and in the
0:29:36 > 0:29:37Labour Party in Brighton they are
0:29:37 > 0:29:45very close indeed. Here, as in many other parts of the country,
0:29:45 > 0:29:50there are suggestions that Momentum is attempting to seize control and
0:29:50 > 0:29:52ultimately replace sitting councillors with candidates of their
0:29:52 > 0:29:56own choosing.
0:29:56 > 0:29:57own choosing.
0:29:57 > 0:29:59Two weeks ago Momentum won all nine positions on the
0:29:59 > 0:30:01committee which will organise the selection of candidates
0:30:01 > 0:30:03for the next City Council elections in 2019.
0:30:03 > 0:30:05Local activists have spoken about installing the first Socialist
0:30:05 > 0:30:07council in the city, the implication being that the current Labour
0:30:07 > 0:30:09council is not quite socialist enough.
0:30:09 > 0:30:17If you talk to people from Momentum, they will say to you, we
0:30:17 > 0:30:19have brought in all these new members, they're
0:30:19 > 0:30:20full of enthusiasm,
0:30:20 > 0:30:30why shouldn't we have our people moving in to take over the party,
0:30:30 > 0:30:36we are the future of the party.
0:30:36 > 0:30:41we are the future of the party.
0:30:41 > 0:30:44we are the future of the party.
0:30:44 > 0:30:46Is there bullying going on in Brighton?
0:30:46 > 0:30:48I think there has been.
0:30:48 > 0:30:50And I think that has predominantly been from people
0:30:50 > 0:30:52outside the Labour Party and it is not acceptable.
0:30:52 > 0:30:54Wouldn't be accurate to say that Momentum members and
0:30:54 > 0:30:57some of the new Labour Party members are mobilising against the existing
0:30:57 > 0:30:58councillors?
0:30:58 > 0:31:01I think there has been some chatter about that and a lot of
0:31:01 > 0:31:05that has been from those who are not in the party at the present time.
0:31:05 > 0:31:07Once people are not members of the Labour Party,
0:31:07 > 0:31:09they can't share our values and therefore they should be
0:31:09 > 0:31:11excluded from Momentum.
0:31:11 > 0:31:21And that would be a way to unify the party in
0:31:21 > 0:31:23Brighton and Hove and around the country.
0:31:23 > 0:31:32As a former minister in the Blair government you might expect of
0:31:32 > 0:31:35a captain to take that view.
0:31:35 > 0:31:37I spoke to a number of Labour Party
0:31:37 > 0:31:39members who said they had experienced intimidation and that
0:31:39 > 0:31:41Momentum was authoritarian and brutal to existing councillors.
0:31:41 > 0:31:43None would agree to appear on camera.
0:31:43 > 0:31:46While I was in Brighton a Momentum activist posted this video and
0:31:46 > 0:31:47social media.
0:31:47 > 0:31:49The faces of three Labour councillors including the
0:31:49 > 0:31:50council leader had been superimposed.
0:31:50 > 0:31:52Something I put to a local Momentum organiser Greg
0:31:52 > 0:31:54Hadfield, who is currently suspended from the Labour Party.
0:31:54 > 0:31:57I haven't seen it so I'm not going to comment on it.
0:31:57 > 0:31:58And you think that is?
0:31:58 > 0:32:00I'm happy to get back to you and have
0:32:00 > 0:32:02considered view but I haven't seen it.
0:32:02 > 0:32:05I have spoken to a number of people across the party in Brighton
0:32:05 > 0:32:09and Hove, some of them tell me that Momentum are using bullying tactics,
0:32:09 > 0:32:12that the party is very divided and they feel not able to speak up
0:32:12 > 0:32:14and air their views.
0:32:14 > 0:32:17They are saying that on the record?
0:32:17 > 0:32:21Because I think that's shocking smears.
0:32:21 > 0:32:24What we have seen in Brighton and Hove in the
0:32:24 > 0:32:26last 18 months is a massive upsurge in democratic, decent democratic
0:32:26 > 0:32:31engagement with party members.
0:32:31 > 0:32:36Anyone who says that, first of all they are lying,
0:32:36 > 0:32:39but also they don't have the best interests of the party.
0:32:39 > 0:32:41Would you like to get rid of the current
0:32:41 > 0:32:43cohort of councillors in Brighton and Hove,
0:32:43 > 0:32:45the Labour councillors.
0:32:45 > 0:32:48I would love it for members to elect the best
0:32:48 > 0:32:50representatives of this Labour Party that they can.
0:32:50 > 0:32:57If that is bullying, if that is not democratic, if that
0:32:57 > 0:32:59is deselecting, then people saying that have a very
0:32:59 > 0:33:01strange view of democracy.
0:33:01 > 0:33:04Overnight Labour suspended the member who posted the video.
0:33:04 > 0:33:07He denied was anti-Semitic and issued an apology.
0:33:07 > 0:33:11Away from Brighton the deselection of Labour
0:33:11 > 0:33:13councillors in Haringey and in other London boroughs has
0:33:13 > 0:33:17made the national press.
0:33:17 > 0:33:19There have been deselection is in other places as
0:33:19 > 0:33:21well including Hastings and by just aware the
0:33:21 > 0:33:24former mayor is among the casualties.
0:33:24 > 0:33:27I think we need a cultural message from the top.
0:33:27 > 0:33:29Momentum clearly have a place in the Labour movement now
0:33:29 > 0:33:31although they are not affiliated with the party
0:33:31 > 0:33:33formally they have brought energy and ideas to the party.
0:33:33 > 0:33:35That is no bad thing.
0:33:35 > 0:33:37But Jeremy Corbyn is not just the party leader but the
0:33:37 > 0:33:40figurehead of momentum, he has to send a message
0:33:40 > 0:33:42to all his troops, if you like around the country,
0:33:42 > 0:33:44saying perhaps, not in my name.
0:33:44 > 0:33:46Having spoken to people from across the
0:33:46 > 0:33:52Labour Party in Brighton, there are those that
0:33:52 > 0:33:55will tell you that the party is more united than ever before
0:33:55 > 0:33:57and they are incredibly positive about the future.
0:33:57 > 0:33:59But on the other side even people who
0:33:59 > 0:34:02describe themselves as being on the left say they feel despondent
0:34:02 > 0:34:08and that the atmosphere can only be described as toxic.
0:34:08 > 0:34:11Well we asked Momentum if someone could come on to discuss the issues
0:34:11 > 0:34:18raised in that film but no one was available.
0:34:18 > 0:34:25Never mind, we have our panel of experts. Helen, is it perfectly
0:34:25 > 0:34:30legitimate for momentum to get their own candidate selected. They are in
0:34:30 > 0:34:35the ascendancy now, so why shouldn't they have more candidates?They have
0:34:35 > 0:34:42a legitimate position and they are entitled to push it forward. But it
0:34:42 > 0:34:46is controlled by two Private limited companies and the data is in the
0:34:46 > 0:34:54hands of one man. They talk about progress and the Fabians, it is
0:34:54 > 0:34:58around Jeremy Corbyn as a person. The third thing, they are very
0:34:58 > 0:35:02successful in terms of making viral videos and they are an effective,
0:35:02 > 0:35:07organising force and that is why people are so worried.Momentum do
0:35:07 > 0:35:12show the way politics is going, they are fantastic at mobilising people,
0:35:12 > 0:35:17reaching their supporters and doing it in different ways, are centrists
0:35:17 > 0:35:21in the Labour Party frightened by their success?Definitely and that
0:35:21 > 0:35:24is why they haven't been able to put up a better fight. To claim this is
0:35:24 > 0:35:32an undemocratic, because votes have been taken before Momentum takes
0:35:32 > 0:35:36control like the Brighton & Hove Albion are to, is absurd. It isn't
0:35:36 > 0:35:42democratic because a small neo-Nazis calls will be holding the Labour
0:35:42 > 0:35:48Party to ransom. It doesn't matter whether they can sit out at these
0:35:48 > 0:35:55meetings until 2am until moderates have to go home. It doesn't make it
0:35:55 > 0:36:04a takeover, it is definitely not democratic as it would be if Britain
0:36:04 > 0:36:12First took over the Labour Party.Is that fair?The problem is calling it
0:36:12 > 0:36:18tiny. It isn't tiny any more. The last lot of people campaigning on
0:36:18 > 0:36:21the streets for Labour were involved in Momentum. If you look at their
0:36:21 > 0:36:29social media, 60% of voters saw a Momentum video on their Facebook
0:36:29 > 0:36:35feeds during the general election and Momentum spent £2000 on it.
0:36:35 > 0:36:39Everything else spread virally. There is a popularity and yes they
0:36:39 > 0:36:43are a bunch of old leftie Marxists, but on the other side there is
0:36:43 > 0:36:51people cheering the Jeremy Corbyn, they have come together and it is a
0:36:51 > 0:36:57powerful force and no wonder the Blairites and motorists are worried.
0:36:57 > 0:37:04It is a form of bullying?You have these optimistic people who want to
0:37:04 > 0:37:08change the world, tied up with a group of people who are effective
0:37:08 > 0:37:15organisers and behave in a substandard way a lot of the time.
0:37:15 > 0:37:20To compare them with Britain First is over the top. To compare it with
0:37:20 > 0:37:27an organisation whose explicit purpose is to advance racist
0:37:27 > 0:37:31propaganda is unfair.We will leave that therefore now.
0:37:31 > 0:37:34It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:37:34 > 0:37:37Coming up on the programme, we hit the streets to find out
0:37:37 > 0:37:39if people are looking on the bright side of Brexit.
0:37:39 > 0:37:41I'm with Christmas shoppers in Basingstoke to ask,
0:37:41 > 0:37:42when it comes to what we may get in that final Brexit deal,
0:37:51 > 0:37:53Hello, and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.
0:37:53 > 0:37:56In a few minutes' time: The Llywydd tells us it'd be irresponsible
0:37:56 > 0:37:58not to have more AMs, with a report expected
0:37:58 > 0:38:02to say more are needed.
0:38:02 > 0:38:04And after breakfast in Brussels, how's the PM's
0:38:04 > 0:38:07deal gone down at home?
0:38:07 > 0:38:10One of her senior backbenchers will be here live.
0:38:11 > 0:38:14But first, we've heard time and time again on this programme
0:38:14 > 0:38:16about the difficult decisions for public bodies facing
0:38:16 > 0:38:18cuts to their budgets.
0:38:18 > 0:38:21But is that austerity being felt within the corridors of power
0:38:21 > 0:38:22in the National Assembly?
0:38:22 > 0:38:25The Commission, the body which manages the day-to-day
0:38:25 > 0:38:27running of the institution, has secured a real-terms
0:38:27 > 0:38:31budget increase for the next financial year.
0:38:31 > 0:38:33In a moment, we'll hear from the woman in charge
0:38:33 > 0:38:34of it, the Llywydd.
0:38:34 > 0:38:39But first, here's Cemlyn Davies.
0:38:39 > 0:38:42But first, here's Cemlyn Davies.
0:38:42 > 0:38:45The Christmas decorations are up in the Assembly, and under the tree,
0:38:45 > 0:38:47there are brand-new powers waiting to be opened.
0:38:47 > 0:38:50With that in mind, there's an extra present in store this year,
0:38:50 > 0:38:53more taxpayers' money to spend on running this place.
0:38:53 > 0:38:56This budget will ensure that the Commission can address
0:38:56 > 0:38:57the challenges that face the Assembly imminently
0:38:57 > 0:39:00and in the longer term and properly support the delivery
0:39:00 > 0:39:02of our strategic goals while being mindful of the wider
0:39:02 > 0:39:06public-sector financial position.
0:39:06 > 0:39:10The Commission which runs the Assembly buildings
0:39:10 > 0:39:13and employs its staff will see its budget grow next year
0:39:13 > 0:39:17by 4.3%, or £2.3 million.
0:39:17 > 0:39:19That's a real terms increase.
0:39:19 > 0:39:22But even then, it will only represent 0.35% of the total funding
0:39:22 > 0:39:25Wales gets from London.
0:39:25 > 0:39:29However, with the local government budget being cut by 0.5%,
0:39:29 > 0:39:32several council leaders are angry.
0:39:32 > 0:39:35One described the decision as a joke.
0:39:35 > 0:39:38Another said the increase was galling.
0:39:38 > 0:39:40Some MPs understand their frustration.
0:39:40 > 0:39:42I think they've got a reasonable budget.
0:39:42 > 0:39:43Local authorities are taking on extra responsibilities
0:39:43 > 0:39:47and extra obligations.
0:39:47 > 0:39:49And yet they're being expected to take cuts.
0:39:49 > 0:39:51So I don't see why, basically, there's one rule
0:39:51 > 0:39:54for the Welsh Assembly and there's one rule for local authorities here.
0:39:54 > 0:39:57They need to set an example and show that they, too,
0:39:57 > 0:39:59can find cost savings, just as they're expecting
0:39:59 > 0:40:01local authorities to do.
0:40:01 > 0:40:04The Assembly Commission was recently criticised by some for spending
0:40:04 > 0:40:05£1.8 million refurbishing this corridor, creating
0:40:05 > 0:40:09a brand-new committee room.
0:40:09 > 0:40:12A spokeswoman said the changes mean the Assembly can make more
0:40:12 > 0:40:16cost-effective use of this part of the Ty Hywel building.
0:40:16 > 0:40:22But critics say the expenditure shows austerity clearly doesn't
0:40:22 > 0:40:26apply in the corridors of power.
0:40:26 > 0:40:28apply in the corridors of power.
0:40:28 > 0:40:30Those concerns were expressed again as the Commission
0:40:30 > 0:40:31asked for more cash.
0:40:31 > 0:40:37Though the plan was eventually agreed by AMs without objection.
0:40:37 > 0:40:40Will you not accept that the Commission of this Assembly
0:40:40 > 0:40:43cannot be immune from the austerity that the rest of the public
0:40:43 > 0:40:45sector in Wales is facing?
0:40:45 > 0:40:50It's certainly not immune to needing to make efficiencies where it
0:40:50 > 0:40:52possibly can make them, and you'll have noted,
0:40:52 > 0:40:55being a member of the committee, that efficiencies have been made
0:40:55 > 0:40:57in staffing and contracts over the previous years.
0:40:57 > 0:41:00But we're also in the position, as you heard during my opening
0:41:00 > 0:41:02remarks, where this Assembly, this Parliament is taking on huge
0:41:02 > 0:41:03new responsibilities.
0:41:03 > 0:41:06Some of them coming via legislation, some of them coming
0:41:06 > 0:41:10through the general ambition that we all have for this to be
0:41:10 > 0:41:13a world-class Parliament.
0:41:13 > 0:41:17We really appreciate that there's been a high-quality investment
0:41:17 > 0:41:19in services and support staff for Assembly members,
0:41:19 > 0:41:23but we also think that that has taken place and is taking place now
0:41:23 > 0:41:25in an area of austerity when all public services
0:41:25 > 0:41:29are being challenged.
0:41:29 > 0:41:31We think the Assembly Commission has to meet that challenge.
0:41:31 > 0:41:33The Assembly Commission isn't alone.
0:41:33 > 0:41:35The body responsible for the Scottish parliament is also
0:41:35 > 0:41:36seeking a budget increase of 5.4%.
0:41:36 > 0:41:38That's partly to cover one-off relocation costs,
0:41:38 > 0:41:41but also to help Holyrood cope with additional
0:41:41 > 0:41:46demands due to Brexit.
0:41:46 > 0:41:48The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body also says it will need
0:41:48 > 0:41:50to recruit extra staff.
0:41:50 > 0:41:55It currently employs 501 people.
0:41:55 > 0:41:59Just 50 more than the Assembly Commission, even though Holyrood
0:41:59 > 0:42:03as twice as many members and considerably more powers.
0:42:03 > 0:42:05The Assembly Commission says the staffing numbers are similar
0:42:05 > 0:42:10because it's already been looking ahead and recruiting for the future.
0:42:10 > 0:42:13Over the past ten years, its staffing costs have doubled
0:42:13 > 0:42:16to nearly £20 million.
0:42:16 > 0:42:19And the number of employees has increased by 50%.
0:42:19 > 0:42:22The Commission has now agreed to freeze staff numbers for the next
0:42:22 > 0:42:25year after being asked to do so by the Finance Committee.
0:42:25 > 0:42:29Let's be clear, we get a very good service from the staff
0:42:29 > 0:42:31here and I really value that.
0:42:31 > 0:42:34But we have to also think about other public bodies in Wales
0:42:34 > 0:42:37that are struggling with austerity and are we immune to that?
0:42:37 > 0:42:38We shouldn't be.
0:42:38 > 0:42:41It has been in the past a way of dealing with the pressures
0:42:41 > 0:42:44on Assembly members to increase the support staff, the research
0:42:44 > 0:42:47staff, so that to a certain extent, the burden is shared amongst a wide
0:42:47 > 0:42:50number of people.
0:42:50 > 0:42:53But, in the final analysis, it takes one Assembly member to be
0:42:53 > 0:42:57in committee or in plenary and to express or challenge
0:42:57 > 0:43:02legislation to hold the government to account and no matter how many
0:43:02 > 0:43:06staff you put around that Assembly member,
0:43:06 > 0:43:10there's only a certain amount that one Assembly member
0:43:10 > 0:43:11and one of 60 can do.
0:43:11 > 0:43:14So we've got a situation almost where we're putting a quart
0:43:14 > 0:43:16into a pint pot and so we asking the Assembly Commission
0:43:16 > 0:43:19to re-examine and take time to examine the exact needs
0:43:19 > 0:43:20of staffing here.
0:43:20 > 0:43:22If you're asking 60 members to do the work of 90,
0:43:22 > 0:43:24then they are going to demand more support.
0:43:24 > 0:43:25That's inevitable.
0:43:25 > 0:43:28But in the same way, we can't mollycoddle members.
0:43:28 > 0:43:31So if members aren't up to the job, it's not up to staff
0:43:31 > 0:43:32to support them in that.
0:43:32 > 0:43:34With the Assembly offices reaching capacity, there had been
0:43:34 > 0:43:36talk of a new premises.
0:43:36 > 0:43:39That's been put on hold whilst a review is carried out.
0:43:39 > 0:43:42But the concerns remain, particularly given
0:43:42 > 0:43:45an eagerly-awaited report to be unwrapped on Tuesday is expected
0:43:45 > 0:43:50to recommend an increase in the number of AMs.
0:43:50 > 0:43:52The arguments over how much the Welsh Assembly should
0:43:52 > 0:43:55cost will carry on long after the decorations
0:43:55 > 0:43:58have been put away.
0:44:01 > 0:44:04Plenty to talk to Elin Jones, the Llywydd, about, then,
0:44:04 > 0:44:07but when I met her, I asked first of all about the report
0:44:07 > 0:44:08being published in two days time.
0:44:08 > 0:44:10It's expected to recommend increasing the number of AMs
0:44:10 > 0:44:13and possibly altering the way they're elected.
0:44:13 > 0:44:16This week, she said she thought they were stretched.
0:44:16 > 0:44:21So I asked her whether the current set-up is sustainable?
0:44:21 > 0:44:23I've been an Assembly member here since 1999.
0:44:23 > 0:44:27I was part of the class of '99, as we call ourselves now.
0:44:27 > 0:44:30At that point, we were an Assembly, many called us a talking shop,
0:44:30 > 0:44:33that's possibly what we were.
0:44:33 > 0:44:36We were responsible for some subordinate legislation
0:44:36 > 0:44:41and much discussion, but not much legislation
0:44:41 > 0:44:46and action and delivering for the people of Wales.
0:44:46 > 0:44:50We are very different Assembly now and we're likely to be even more
0:44:50 > 0:44:52different in the future as Brexit progresses.
0:44:52 > 0:44:59We pass primary legislation here that affects the daily lives
0:44:59 > 0:45:01of the people of Wales.
0:45:01 > 0:45:03We're about to take on taxation powers, as well.
0:45:03 > 0:45:06This is a very different place to that Assembly
0:45:06 > 0:45:09that was first voted for in 1999.
0:45:09 > 0:45:13The pressures on Assembly members are significant.
0:45:13 > 0:45:16That's notto say that the rest of the people of Wales
0:45:16 > 0:45:18don't have pressures, as well, but to do proper scrutiny,
0:45:18 > 0:45:22to do proper work and pass proper legislation in this place,
0:45:22 > 0:45:25I want to make sure that we have the capacity to do that.
0:45:25 > 0:45:28I think we have to address those issues and if we don't,
0:45:28 > 0:45:30we are irresponsible.
0:45:30 > 0:45:32I'm certainly irresponsible, as the Presiding Officer,
0:45:32 > 0:45:37in not having that discussion.
0:45:37 > 0:45:40But wasn't it irrresponsible, therefore, to press for more powers
0:45:40 > 0:45:43if you could see at that time that it was going to stretch
0:45:43 > 0:45:46the AMs beyond what was reasonable and practical?
0:45:46 > 0:45:48Well, there were different priorities, possibly, at that time.
0:45:48 > 0:45:52Maybe we...
0:45:52 > 0:45:55Many of us have been keen for this to become a proper parliament,
0:45:55 > 0:45:58certainly the people of Wales were keen in the 2011 referendum
0:45:58 > 0:46:02when they voted for primary legislative powers for this
0:46:02 > 0:46:05Assembly.
0:46:05 > 0:46:09We've looked at various ways of addressing capacity
0:46:09 > 0:46:12of Assembly members here.
0:46:12 > 0:46:15We've increased the staffing complement to support
0:46:15 > 0:46:19the Assembly members.
0:46:19 > 0:46:21That's been a matter of public discussion,
0:46:21 > 0:46:24whether that's the right thing to do.
0:46:24 > 0:46:27But it's probably not the right thing to do into the future,
0:46:27 > 0:46:30to increase the number of staff that support Assembly members whilst not
0:46:30 > 0:46:31really looking at the core problem that remains,
0:46:31 > 0:46:34the number of Assembly members here to do the very
0:46:34 > 0:46:39many aspects of work, both government and scrutiny that
0:46:39 > 0:46:42needs to be done here.
0:46:42 > 0:46:44You raise a point of the staff working for the Commission,
0:46:44 > 0:46:46so supporting the Assembly members.
0:46:46 > 0:46:48And there's been a 50% increase in those numbers
0:46:48 > 0:46:52over the last ten years, over 450 employees, which is only 50
0:46:52 > 0:46:56fewer than the Scottish parliament, which has twice as many AMs.
0:46:56 > 0:47:01Is that a sustainable way of going about it?
0:47:01 > 0:47:04You mentioned there needed to be more AMs rather
0:47:04 > 0:47:08than more support staff.
0:47:08 > 0:47:10But if you have more AMs, you're going to have more
0:47:10 > 0:47:11support staff, aren't you?
0:47:11 > 0:47:14The cost is going to go up and up and up.
0:47:14 > 0:47:15Not necessarily.
0:47:15 > 0:47:18I'd be very keen to scrutinise very hard how we would budget
0:47:18 > 0:47:21if we were to look to increase the number of Assembly members.
0:47:21 > 0:47:23It's certainly been the case that there has been a deliberate
0:47:23 > 0:47:26action to increase the number of staff in order to provide
0:47:26 > 0:47:29the support that AMs need in order to enable them to sit on more
0:47:29 > 0:47:31than one subject committee.
0:47:31 > 0:47:33We have chairs of subject committees here that sit
0:47:33 > 0:47:34on other subject committees.
0:47:34 > 0:47:36They can't properly do their work of developing their committee work
0:47:36 > 0:47:39whilst they're also sitting on a very heavy workload
0:47:39 > 0:47:42of another subject committee.
0:47:42 > 0:47:50So all of that has to be looked at to enable,
0:47:50 > 0:47:54not the workload of Assembly members, we have to shoulder that
0:47:54 > 0:47:57and we know what we get into when we put our names forward
0:47:57 > 0:48:04for election, but it's about doing the work properly.
0:48:04 > 0:48:06It's not really for the Assembly members here now,
0:48:06 > 0:48:08but it's about the future.
0:48:08 > 0:48:12And the future of this institution is we've had the first 20 years
0:48:12 > 0:48:15of devolution in Wales, we are moving from a national
0:48:15 > 0:48:19Assembly to a Welsh Parliament and the legislative tax-varying
0:48:19 > 0:48:23powers, Brexit implications on us will mean that the next 20 years
0:48:23 > 0:48:26are a very different 20 years to the previous ones.
0:48:26 > 0:48:31And we need to have the capacity to do that work properly.
0:48:31 > 0:48:32Sure.
0:48:32 > 0:48:35But those people who opposed that referendum in 2011, who said,
0:48:35 > 0:48:38they'll just be asking for more powers and more AMs and they'll be
0:48:38 > 0:48:40asking for taxation powers even though the referendum
0:48:40 > 0:48:41explicitly said that wasn't going to happen.
0:48:41 > 0:48:47They're all justified now, aren't they?
0:48:47 > 0:48:49Because what's happening is you're asking for more powers,
0:48:49 > 0:48:52it's going to cost more, and you're asking for more AMs.
0:48:52 > 0:48:55Yes, but I don't think we're out of sync with the people of Wales.
0:48:55 > 0:48:59When you look at many of the views that are sought from the people
0:48:59 > 0:49:01of Wales in opinion polls, they are comfortable
0:49:01 > 0:49:03with the fact that we have...
0:49:03 > 0:49:07With the status quo...
0:49:07 > 0:49:07With the status quo...
0:49:07 > 0:49:11And many consider that we should have other powers.
0:49:11 > 0:49:14There is a commission the government has just set up on justice
0:49:14 > 0:49:17and to look at where powers should lie in the future on that.
0:49:17 > 0:49:20Which could be more AMs in the future.
0:49:20 > 0:49:25Well, not necessarily.
0:49:25 > 0:49:26Well, not necessarily.
0:49:26 > 0:49:29We need to look at whether we have the number of Assembly members
0:49:29 > 0:49:34here to do the job of legislation, to do the job of scrutiny
0:49:34 > 0:49:39on tax-varying powers.
0:49:39 > 0:49:40on tax-varying powers.
0:49:40 > 0:49:44We are going to move to a point where Brexit happens.
0:49:44 > 0:49:47Interestingly, at that point, there will be four MEPs that no
0:49:47 > 0:49:50longer represent Wales in the European Parliament.
0:49:50 > 0:49:54That workload will shift to Wales, much of it will shift to Wales,
0:49:54 > 0:49:59and therefore, we need to think about whether that has implications.
0:49:59 > 0:50:03It already has implications.
0:50:03 > 0:50:06We had to set up a new committee, which may not seem much,
0:50:06 > 0:50:09but it's done its work well over the last two years
0:50:09 > 0:50:14to prepare for Brexit.
0:50:14 > 0:50:15to prepare for Brexit.
0:50:15 > 0:50:18In fact, it's well in advance of how maybe the Scottish Parliament has
0:50:18 > 0:50:20done its work in preparing for Brexit.
0:50:20 > 0:50:24Do you think that an additional, or an increase in number of AMs
0:50:24 > 0:50:26might be more palatable for the public if there
0:50:26 > 0:50:28was a corresponding cut in the number of Members
0:50:28 > 0:50:30of Parliament in Westminster for Wales?
0:50:30 > 0:50:32Very possibly it would make the discussion easier to have
0:50:32 > 0:50:36because it would be a realignment, but I don't think that it's
0:50:36 > 0:50:40necessarily in tandem that one happens and the other doesn't.
0:50:40 > 0:50:44So we need to separate them.
0:50:44 > 0:50:50So we need to separate them.
0:50:50 > 0:50:52I'm very keen that we base the discussion about the number
0:50:52 > 0:50:59of AMs that we have here on what happens here
0:50:59 > 0:51:03and how we do it better, rather than whether the UK
0:51:03 > 0:51:07Government decides to decrease the number of MPs, which may not be
0:51:07 > 0:51:11related to the work that they do, but rather to political
0:51:11 > 0:51:13considerations.
0:51:13 > 0:51:16I don't think we need to relate our decisions here to UK
0:51:16 > 0:51:21political priorities.
0:51:21 > 0:51:24political priorities.
0:51:24 > 0:51:25You've mentioned Brexit a couple of times.
0:51:25 > 0:51:29And you know that one of the reasons people voted for Brexit was concerns
0:51:29 > 0:51:30over immigration in Wales.
0:51:30 > 0:51:33And you were saying in your speech last Wednesday that you want
0:51:33 > 0:51:38all citizens of the European Union who live in Wales to be allowed
0:51:38 > 0:51:40to vote in Welsh Assembly elections, wherever they may be
0:51:40 > 0:51:43from from across the world.
0:51:43 > 0:51:45Given those concerns about immigration, do you ever worry
0:51:45 > 0:51:48that maybe you're out of touch with the public on that regard?
0:51:48 > 0:51:51There are people who voted for me and people who voted against me
0:51:51 > 0:51:54in the last election who I believe should have the vote
0:51:54 > 0:51:58in the next election.
0:51:58 > 0:52:05EU citizens have had the ability to vote for members of this Assembly
0:52:05 > 0:52:10and I don't want them to lose that vote as a result of Brexit.
0:52:10 > 0:52:12They are citizens of Wales.
0:52:12 > 0:52:16In fact, people who may have been born in the US or in China are also
0:52:16 > 0:52:21citizens of Wales if they live and work here.
0:52:21 > 0:52:24I think we need to have a consultation with the people
0:52:24 > 0:52:27of Wales as to the franchise of the next election
0:52:27 > 0:52:30to the National Assembly when we have powers now to undertake
0:52:30 > 0:52:33decisions on our own elections here as a result of the Wales Act.
0:52:33 > 0:52:36And I hope that the people of Wales feel that those
0:52:36 > 0:52:42people who live in Wales, have a stake in the future
0:52:42 > 0:52:45of Wales, have also a vote for the next Welsh Parliament.
0:52:45 > 0:52:48Diolch yn fawr.
0:52:48 > 0:52:53Croeso.
0:52:53 > 0:52:56This week we learned that the by-election for Alyn
0:52:56 > 0:52:57and Deeside will be held on 6th February.
0:52:57 > 0:53:00It, of course, follows the death of Carl Sargeant last month.
0:53:00 > 0:53:02There has been speculation about who might want to be
0:53:02 > 0:53:04the Labour candidate, and today, Carl Sargeant's son,
0:53:04 > 0:53:11Jack, has decided to throw his hat into the ring.
0:53:11 > 0:53:14Carl Sargeant was found dead last month, four days after being sacked
0:53:14 > 0:53:16by First Minister Carwyn Jones and told allegations had been made
0:53:16 > 0:53:17about his personal conduct.
0:53:17 > 0:53:22His son Jack says putting his name forward to be Labour's candidate had
0:53:22 > 0:53:29been a difficult decision and one he never thought he'd have to make.
0:53:29 > 0:53:31But after a very tough time for the family,
0:53:31 > 0:53:34he now wants to carry on with what he says is his dad's
0:53:34 > 0:53:35good work in the constituency.
0:53:35 > 0:53:37Our community has been through some really,
0:53:37 > 0:53:40really tough times over the last years and decades and Dad himself
0:53:40 > 0:53:44has been for them to help as much as he could.
0:53:44 > 0:53:47And I want to continue that.
0:53:47 > 0:53:50I want to continue that for them because this last month for us,
0:53:50 > 0:53:53as a family, personally, has been one of the toughest times
0:53:53 > 0:53:56for us, and the community spirit and the love and support offered
0:53:56 > 0:53:57by them has been unbelievable.
0:53:57 > 0:53:59I know that we can't thank them enough.
0:53:59 > 0:54:07So I want to continue the good, hard work Dad gave us and also repay
0:54:07 > 0:54:15them for the love and support that they've shown us, as well.
0:54:15 > 0:54:18It's understood Welsh Labour intends to draw up a shortlist of candidates
0:54:18 > 0:54:20with local party members having the final say.
0:54:20 > 0:54:22There have been warnings of an independent challenger
0:54:22 > 0:54:26unless the party chooses a local, grassroots candidate.
0:54:26 > 0:54:29Other parties have yet to select their candidates
0:54:29 > 0:54:34with the by-election on 6th February.
0:54:34 > 0:54:37So now we know that the first bit of the Brexit process is done.
0:54:37 > 0:54:40The so-called divorce bill, the rights of EU citizens in the UK
0:54:40 > 0:54:46and British citizens abroad, and the Irish border.
0:54:46 > 0:54:48Although it was a bit of a fudge.
0:54:48 > 0:54:49Now the more difficult decisions begin.
0:54:49 > 0:54:51So, what will it mean for us in Wales?
0:54:51 > 0:54:53The Conservative MP for Montgomeryshire,
0:54:53 > 0:54:57Glyn Davies is here with me now.
0:54:57 > 0:55:02Glyn Davies is here with me now.
0:55:02 > 0:55:06I said it is a bit of a fudge because it is fair to say
0:55:06 > 0:55:10essentially what happened on Friday in Brussels was it was kicked into
0:55:10 > 0:55:14the long grass. No firm decisions were made it is just allowing things
0:55:14 > 0:55:19to me and the second stage.I think last weeks decision is hugely
0:55:19 > 0:55:22significant. I think the Prime Minister played an absolute blinder
0:55:22 > 0:55:29in getting to where people hadn't expected her to get to. But it is no
0:55:29 > 0:55:32point in pretending it's not. That was the most important decision but
0:55:32 > 0:55:38the hardest decision yet come. We are moving on to trade. The Northern
0:55:38 > 0:55:42Ireland's position, we do need to know what the position is on trade
0:55:42 > 0:55:47before you can finally agree to what that might be. That is why it is
0:55:47 > 0:55:49difficult to give definitive answers.Where would you like to see
0:55:49 > 0:55:54how? We move on to discussions on show trade. I should be priority be
0:55:54 > 0:56:00from a Welsh perspective trading with Germany and France, should
0:56:00 > 0:56:05trying to have as good a deal there be more important than trying to
0:56:05 > 0:56:10cast our net further afield?There is a balance. We want to be able to
0:56:10 > 0:56:14continue to be able to have a tariff free trade as possible with the
0:56:14 > 0:56:23European union. That is crucially important. Particularly part of the
0:56:23 > 0:56:29world in mid Wales. It is massively important. I also think we have got
0:56:29 > 0:56:36to have the freedom to develop trade with other countries globally. Those
0:56:36 > 0:56:39are the two challengers. A lot of the debate in matters matching those
0:56:39 > 0:56:44too.I guess the balance will be watched you think is more important?
0:56:44 > 0:56:52And from an agriculture and also manufacturing steel and so on, is it
0:56:52 > 0:56:54-- is there a danger that the UK Government would seek to look
0:56:54 > 0:56:59further afield just because you can and may ignore the importance of the
0:56:59 > 0:57:03EU it for Wales?I don't think that is necessarily going to be the case
0:57:03 > 0:57:08at all. We have got to objectives. Both are crucial. What we have found
0:57:08 > 0:57:13in this last week, that is why think it was so significant, the treatment
0:57:13 > 0:57:18this week, it isn't just the UK that one disagreement between Britain and
0:57:18 > 0:57:22Europe. It is pretty obvious to us at the EU wanted as well. They've
0:57:22 > 0:57:29got both sides want an agreement. The EU will know perfectly well that
0:57:29 > 0:57:33those challenges of this temperature government. I think there will be a
0:57:33 > 0:57:36lot of posturing, a lot of people think they will do this, they will
0:57:36 > 0:57:40do that. There will be a huge amount of criticism. There will be people
0:57:40 > 0:57:44who think it can't be done but I feel in the end it will come to an
0:57:44 > 0:57:47agreement. It is difficult for anybody in my position to Novak of
0:57:47 > 0:57:53that might be.The danger what was said on Friday with North Island,
0:57:53 > 0:58:00there will be a hard border and yet they want be a single customs union
0:58:00 > 0:58:03on the island of Ireland which leaves the ports of valiant and
0:58:03 > 0:58:13Pembroke Dock in limbo.-- Ali head. I do not think that will happen. If
0:58:13 > 0:58:18we have the free trade agreement we want, that will not be a problem in
0:58:18 > 0:58:24Ireland. This is why having a definitive answer on the position is
0:58:24 > 0:58:27so difficult. If we do succeed in having tariff free trade across
0:58:27 > 0:58:33Europe, that other months almost diminishes in importance. There will
0:58:33 > 0:58:38not be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. I think that
0:58:38 > 0:58:42is a very important message. Not just for the DUP but for Ireland, as
0:58:42 > 0:58:48well and so me and all of us.As a former Assembly member, I went to
0:58:48 > 0:58:52pick your brains about what we have heard from Elin Jones about having
0:58:52 > 0:58:55more powers. You were responsible largely for the Wales bill which put
0:58:55 > 0:59:00more powers towards the Assembly. Do you feel that more aliens are needed
0:59:00 > 0:59:04to cope with the extra demands?I think we're going to see this report
0:59:04 > 0:59:12next week. -- Assembly members. I am not against increasing the number of
0:59:12 > 0:59:16Assembly members. The argument will have to be made by Elin Jones and
0:59:16 > 0:59:21others but if Westminster takes decisions like the one I argued for
0:59:21 > 0:59:25very strongly which was devolving income tax powers, if we give these
0:59:25 > 0:59:29responsibilities and we bring in powers back from the rep initially
0:59:29 > 0:59:32part of it to Westminster, which eventually were go to the Assembly,
0:59:32 > 0:59:36if we give this responsibility to Assembly members who can't suddenly
0:59:36 > 0:59:40say that they can't have been about members they need to do it.If you
0:59:40 > 0:59:43are increasing, the other side is if you are increasing the powers for
0:59:43 > 0:59:47the Assembly members, do you still need as many MPs for Wales would not
0:59:47 > 0:59:53be a way of doing this more simply? The current proposal is that a
0:59:53 > 0:59:57number of MPs be reduced. I'm not in favour of that. We're losing 73 MPs
0:59:57 > 1:00:02in Britain from the European MEPs and we do need to make a very
1:00:02 > 1:00:06substantial decrease in the number of members of the House of Lords. I
1:00:06 > 1:00:11think reducing the cost of politics is crucial. It is a really important
1:00:11 > 1:00:16objective but doing that by reducing the number of MPs or indeed refusing
1:00:16 > 1:00:18to contemplate increasing the number of Assembly members of an argument
1:00:18 > 1:00:23is made that it is needed, I do not think that is the right approach.
1:00:23 > 1:00:26But he very much for coming in this morning.
1:00:26 > 1:00:27That's it for another week.
1:00:27 > 1:00:29Join us next Sunday for our final programme before
1:00:29 > 1:00:30the Christmas break.
1:00:30 > 1:00:33Don't forget Wales Live on Wednesday on BBC One Wales at 10:30.
1:00:33 > 1:00:35Twitter never gets a break, of course.
1:00:35 > 1:00:37We're @walespolitics But for now, that's all from me.
1:00:37 > 1:00:38Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching.
1:00:38 > 1:00:41Time to go back to Sarah.
1:00:44 > 1:00:49proposed by the government.
1:00:49 > 1:00:50proposed by the government.
1:00:50 > 1:00:53There is money in the budget, for instance, the personal tax
1:00:53 > 1:00:56credit is 1.3 billion and that could wipe out the two child tax
1:00:56 > 1:00:58credit limit that has been introduced by the government.
1:00:58 > 1:01:00We will have to leave it there.
1:01:00 > 1:01:02My thanks to both of you and now, back to Sarah.
1:01:02 > 1:01:05Welcome back, I have got my political insiders here who will
1:01:05 > 1:01:08give us a peek behind the curtains of what has been going on with the
1:01:08 > 1:01:10big stories of the week. One of the interesting thing is, after Theresa
1:01:10 > 1:01:15May had done this deal in Brussels, Michael Gove wrote a piece in the
1:01:15 > 1:01:18paper yesterday which said if the British people dislike the
1:01:18 > 1:01:23arrangements we negotiate, they will have the ability to change it, what
1:01:23 > 1:01:29did he mean by that?I think he had a few things going on. First of all
1:01:29 > 1:01:33he was effectively saying that the wording in this communique doesn't
1:01:33 > 1:01:37resolve the issue of how much regulatory alignment there should be
1:01:37 > 1:01:43between the UK and the EU, going on into the future. That is helpful
1:01:43 > 1:01:46because it means he can be loyal and support the Prime Minister and
1:01:46 > 1:01:51endorsed what she has done so far without appearing to endorse some
1:01:51 > 1:01:56sort of soft Brexit and it gives him wriggle room to endorse further
1:01:56 > 1:01:59concessions, if they are just parking these issues, rather than
1:01:59 > 1:02:05resolving them in stone. It gives them the ability to exercise
1:02:05 > 1:02:09flexibility in the future. The wisdom within the party is, Theresa
1:02:09 > 1:02:15May will probably step down after we have left in 2019 and after that we
1:02:15 > 1:02:20will look for somebody who is in talks fight with having taken one
1:02:20 > 1:02:26side or the other which would rule out the Brexiteer is like Michael
1:02:26 > 1:02:32Gove. But if we are just parking these issues, and there will be
1:02:32 > 1:02:36chants to debate them at the next general election, it means somebody
1:02:36 > 1:02:43like Michael Gove could be a viable candidate.It was interesting to
1:02:43 > 1:02:47watch Michael Gove on Friday morning, so supportive of the Prime
1:02:47 > 1:02:52Minister as he did a round of media interviews.Is this part of a bigger
1:02:52 > 1:02:58plan? Sometimes he is so supportive, I think he is taking the make. He
1:02:58 > 1:03:04said this is the best speech he has ever seen and I thought he had laid
1:03:04 > 1:03:08it on a bit thick. But there is a point, I think he thinks he might
1:03:08 > 1:03:13run for the Tory leadership. He has made a lot of jokes with how badly
1:03:13 > 1:03:17it went last time and I'm not convinced it will go any better next
1:03:17 > 1:03:23time.In the middle of the week, people were getting ready for a
1:03:23 > 1:03:27leadership challenge?Yes, I was getting unsolicited calls, which is
1:03:27 > 1:03:32a good sign there is something going on. There were five MPs who have
1:03:32 > 1:03:36previously said they would not consider getting rid of Theresa May,
1:03:36 > 1:03:41who were putting in their letters for a vote of no-confidence. That
1:03:41 > 1:03:47has gone away but Theresa May only has so many lives. The poor way the
1:03:47 > 1:03:52business with the DUP was handled has caused her a bit of damage.
1:03:52 > 1:03:57There is a lot of murmuring this weekend, where Brexiteer is, like
1:03:57 > 1:04:03Michael Gove have said this doesn't settle anything. Lots of people
1:04:03 > 1:04:06going around saying nothing is sorted until everything is sorted.
1:04:06 > 1:04:11It is a way of saying, nothing to see here, we haven't capitulated
1:04:11 > 1:04:15yet. But they are looking at the wording of the document and they are
1:04:15 > 1:04:19concerned.It will be harder for the Prime Minister to smooth over these
1:04:19 > 1:04:22cracks in the cabinet sit down and have a proper discussion about the
1:04:22 > 1:04:27end stage, the type of future trading relationship, will they do
1:04:27 > 1:04:35that next week?The crunch meeting will, the week after. The Brexit War
1:04:35 > 1:04:39Cabinet. It now has Michael Gove on it and Gavin Williamson, the new
1:04:39 > 1:04:44Defence Secretary. I am told Gavin Williamson is supporting Michael
1:04:44 > 1:04:49Gove, Boris Johnson and David Davis in saying we need to have the
1:04:49 > 1:04:53freedom to diverged. The significance of that, there was a
1:04:53 > 1:04:58majority of 4-3 in favour of the diverges, rather than the liners.
1:04:58 > 1:05:04With Theresa May drifting above them. Looks like are going in that
1:05:04 > 1:05:08direction.Toby, one of the things the Prime Minister has been able to
1:05:08 > 1:05:13do, is stand above those arguments, play the role of having a casting
1:05:13 > 1:05:20vote. If she does cast her vote one side or the other, does that make
1:05:20 > 1:05:25her Premiership more difficult?It would make her Premiership more
1:05:25 > 1:05:28difficult and that is why she has had to postpone doing that until
1:05:28 > 1:05:33now. But that doesn't mean she would definitely not survive if she comes
1:05:33 > 1:05:38down on one side or the other. Tim and I had a disagreement on what
1:05:38 > 1:05:43Gavin Williamson was up to. I think it is partly because it sure is up
1:05:43 > 1:05:47Theresa May's position if the Brexiteer thought they would be in a
1:05:47 > 1:05:53minority and in danger of being outflanked by Hammond and Amber Rudd
1:05:53 > 1:05:57in the committee. They might be more inclined to rebel and whip up
1:05:57 > 1:06:01discontent. If they think they will have a majority, they will keep
1:06:01 > 1:06:05their powder dry which means Theresa May gets to live another day. I
1:06:05 > 1:06:10thought it was Gavin Williamson being loyal to the Prime Minister,
1:06:10 > 1:06:15keep the Brexiteers onside. But Tim's view is, he is ambitious for
1:06:15 > 1:06:18the leadership himself and if he
1:06:18 > 1:06:21Tim's view is, he is ambitious for positions himself as the Brexiteer
1:06:21 > 1:06:25candidate, he will have more hope. It doesn't look quite so good next
1:06:25 > 1:06:31to the remaining candidates.Gavin Williamson has been at the centre of
1:06:31 > 1:06:34another story, the fight he has been having with Philip Hammond, the
1:06:34 > 1:06:38Chancellor.It is one of those things were personal beef has been
1:06:38 > 1:06:44brought into this. There does seem to be a personal animosity between
1:06:44 > 1:06:50them. Gavin Williamson will have to go on a charm offensive if he wants
1:06:50 > 1:06:56to have a go at the leadership. When he was moved from Chief Whip to
1:06:56 > 1:07:00Defence Secretary, some of the briefings coming out where
1:07:00 > 1:07:05extraordinary, people'spersonal dislike about in. Chief Whip does
1:07:05 > 1:07:10earn you some enemies, but he does have some ground to make up.He is
1:07:10 > 1:07:15one of the signatories with the DUP so if there is a change of
1:07:15 > 1:07:18government before the agreement expires, to keep the government
1:07:18 > 1:07:23alive, you would have to be in the cabinet.
1:07:23 > 1:07:26So with lots of glowing headlines in the papers over the weekend
1:07:26 > 1:07:28and pictures of a beaming Theresa May everywhere,
1:07:28 > 1:07:30is it time for the Brexit doom-mongers to start feeling
1:07:30 > 1:07:31a bit more optimistic?
1:07:31 > 1:07:34We sent Emma Vardy to Basingstoke, which pretty much split down
1:07:34 > 1:07:36the same lines as the rest of the country in terms
1:07:36 > 1:07:39of the referendum vote, to find our how hopeful people
1:07:39 > 1:07:40are feeling about the deal.
1:07:40 > 1:07:44There's just over two weeks until Christmas and Theresa May's
1:07:44 > 1:07:51gift to you this year was getting us onto the next stage of talks.
1:07:51 > 1:07:53We are here to ask the people of Basingstoke, when it comes
1:07:53 > 1:08:03to the final Brexit deal, are you an optimist or a pessimist.
1:08:04 > 1:08:06We are coming out of the club.
1:08:06 > 1:08:09We get all the benefits of being in the club, we are coming
1:08:09 > 1:08:11out and we are going to lose out.
1:08:11 > 1:08:12We are a great nation.
1:08:12 > 1:08:15We are going to do it.
1:08:15 > 1:08:19I just think we haven't got a great idea of what it looks like.
1:08:19 > 1:08:22We are British, we get on with things.
1:08:22 > 1:08:24We've gone through a war.
1:08:24 > 1:08:26Not you, but I have, you know.
1:08:26 > 1:08:29It is wonderful.
1:08:29 > 1:08:32We are a lovely country, I love it and I'm very
1:08:32 > 1:08:34patriotically so there you are.
1:08:34 > 1:08:35Merry Christmas to you.
1:08:35 > 1:08:40Happy Christmas.
1:08:40 > 1:08:44Happy Christmas.
1:08:44 > 1:08:46Not enough information was given to us, the money or anything.
1:08:46 > 1:08:49And being ruled by Brussels, didn't like that.
1:08:49 > 1:08:51And we were just ill informed.
1:08:51 > 1:08:53I think it's going to happen, I think Theresa May
1:08:53 > 1:08:58is doing a very good job.
1:08:58 > 1:09:00is doing a very good job.
1:09:00 > 1:09:02I'm counting on it being a disaster, personally.
1:09:02 > 1:09:08Maybe the house prices will come down.
1:09:08 > 1:09:10It's happening, don't want a bad deal, just
1:09:10 > 1:09:12got to get on with it, I suppose.
1:09:12 > 1:09:15Everything they told us during the campaign seems to have
1:09:15 > 1:09:17gone out the window and they seem to be doing something
1:09:17 > 1:09:18completely different now.
1:09:18 > 1:09:20She's been hanging on, hanging on and now we
1:09:20 > 1:09:21are paying £44 billion.
1:09:21 > 1:09:23Come on!
1:09:23 > 1:09:23Optimistic.
1:09:23 > 1:09:25Optimistic, why is that, sir?
1:09:25 > 1:09:30All those bad forecasts they made when the vote was taken,
1:09:30 > 1:09:32the country is going to fall apart, everyone will be poorer.
1:09:32 > 1:09:36None of it has happened, has it?
1:09:36 > 1:09:39You can't vote with these, but this lot should know a thing
1:09:39 > 1:09:42or two about doing a deal, what do you reckon?
1:09:42 > 1:09:44Are we going to end up with a good deal?
1:09:44 > 1:09:48Yes, I think so.
1:09:48 > 1:09:49Why shouldn't we?
1:09:49 > 1:09:51They want our trade, we want their trade.
1:09:51 > 1:09:52Have a ball.
1:09:52 > 1:09:55Going to be wobbly, but we've gone through worse.
1:09:55 > 1:09:58No, we haven't got a good deal, not with what she did yesterday.
1:09:58 > 1:10:00Basically, we've decided to give away everything in the negotiations.
1:10:00 > 1:10:02Should we have been tougher?
1:10:02 > 1:10:03Yes.
1:10:03 > 1:10:05They need trade with us, we need trade with them,
1:10:05 > 1:10:10so a deal will be made.
1:10:10 > 1:10:13so a deal will be made.
1:10:13 > 1:10:15So you are pretty hopeful then?
1:10:15 > 1:10:16Yes.
1:10:16 > 1:10:17It's going to work out?
1:10:17 > 1:10:18Yes.
1:10:18 > 1:10:21Plenty of Christmas cheer here, but were the people of Basingstoke
1:10:21 > 1:10:22hopeful of getting a good deal?
1:10:22 > 1:10:27It's close, but most were optimistic that we will.
1:10:27 > 1:10:34Some optimistic voters there, our voters following this and trying to
1:10:34 > 1:10:38work out whether what they wanted during the referendum is being
1:10:38 > 1:10:41delivered?Some are following it more closely than others. The money
1:10:41 > 1:10:47cuts through, people get that, it was the essential focus of the
1:10:47 > 1:10:53referendum campaign. But let's spare the public as best we can, this
1:10:53 > 1:10:56discussion of every intricacy. Those who cover it professionally have
1:10:56 > 1:11:01been close to throwing ourselves off buildings in the last year. To some
1:11:01 > 1:11:07degree, they should leave us to do the heavy lifting. It is interesting
1:11:07 > 1:11:12that they are optimistic. I was optimistic there would be a deal,
1:11:12 > 1:11:17but not necessarily it would be that great. What has happened in the last
1:11:17 > 1:11:21six months, put optimism and pessimism aside, there is a sense of
1:11:21 > 1:11:26realism about what is going on. We have seen what it's like the 18 with
1:11:26 > 1:11:30Brussels. We have talked about the cabinet negotiating with themselves,
1:11:30 > 1:11:35but what will happen with the other 27 countries? They will have their
1:11:35 > 1:11:39own negotiations early in the New Year and they will set the
1:11:39 > 1:11:41parameters of what they want and what they want Michel Barnier to
1:11:41 > 1:11:48negotiate. That will be closer to what we will be getting.We focused
1:11:48 > 1:11:53a great deal on the split within the Cabinet and the Prime Minister tried
1:11:53 > 1:12:00to keep the Brexiteers and the Remainers onside.They don't think
1:12:00 > 1:12:07there will be a good deal. I am pessimistic for the simple reason,
1:12:07 > 1:12:12if there was one pledge that mood voting more than others, would be be
1:12:12 > 1:12:16extra 350 million for the NHS and public services. I will not happen,
1:12:16 > 1:12:20we have a massive productivity problem. Social care is still a
1:12:20 > 1:12:25looming crisis, we cannot afford to care for elderly people in the way
1:12:25 > 1:12:29we would like to. None of that is being sold by Brexit. It's not going
1:12:29 > 1:12:36to the Commons at the moment. We're not talking about schools, hospitals
1:12:36 > 1:12:40and local councils.Are you optimistic or pessimistic? Even if
1:12:40 > 1:12:44we are committed to pay up to 40 billion over the next 20 years it is
1:12:44 > 1:12:49less than 10 billion a year in net contributions for the next 20 years.
1:12:49 > 1:12:53I am optimistic deal will be done and I am optimistic it will be a
1:12:53 > 1:12:59good deal. Let's not forget as James Brokenshire pointed out, in the
1:12:59 > 1:13:02communique on Friday morning, it said the EU accepted the UK would no
1:13:02 > 1:13:05longer be in the single market or the customs union, yet they have
1:13:05 > 1:13:09gone on with the willingness to negotiate free-trade arrangement. I
1:13:09 > 1:13:16think it will be something like the deal with Canada, a free-trade
1:13:16 > 1:13:20agreements and not something like the Norway deal.Thank you all very
1:13:20 > 1:13:22much.
1:13:22 > 1:13:24That's all for today, thanks to all my guests,
1:13:24 > 1:13:26especially Helen, Toby and Tim for keeping me company
1:13:26 > 1:13:27throughout the show.
1:13:27 > 1:13:30Join me again next Sunday at 11 here on BBC One.
1:13:30 > 1:13:32Until then, those of you who can, enjoy the snow.
1:13:32 > 1:13:37Bye bye.
1:13:37 > 1:13:40Bye bye.