11/03/2018

0:00:35 > 0:00:36Morning, everyone.

0:00:36 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith and this is the Sunday Politics.

0:00:39 > 0:00:41I'll be bringing you up to speed on all the political

0:00:41 > 0:00:44comings and goings in Westminster and beyond.

0:00:44 > 0:00:46Coming up in today's programme.

0:00:46 > 0:00:50As the investigation into the nerve agent attack in Salisbury continues,

0:00:50 > 0:00:52we'll be taking to the former Home Secretary Jack Straw

0:00:52 > 0:00:56and former Security Minister, Pauline Neville Jones.

0:00:56 > 0:00:58Is there room for more spending?

0:00:58 > 0:01:00Ahead of his spring statement this week, the Chancellor Philip Hammond

0:01:00 > 0:01:03has hinted austerity could be over as he said there was "light

0:01:03 > 0:01:11at the end of the tunnel".

0:01:11 > 0:01:14We join the Universities minister Sam Gyimah on what's jokingly been

0:01:14 > 0:01:16called a "punishment tour" of the country -

0:01:16 > 0:01:20trying to attract students to the Conservative Party.

0:01:20 > 0:01:24Most of my friends always slander the Conservative name saying it's

0:01:24 > 0:01:28only for middle aged men who want to benefit from themselves.At first I

0:01:28 > 0:01:32was like, I'm not going

0:01:32 > 0:01:34are not Labour, don't talk to me and I was like OK.

0:01:34 > 0:01:38In London, the Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable tells us why he's

0:01:38 > 0:01:40Later in the programme, the author of Article 50,

0:01:40 > 0:01:42Lord Kerr with his latest views on Brexit, and a nursing union says

0:01:42 > 0:01:45the NHS will come to an end unless a better way is found

0:01:45 > 0:01:47to fund it.

0:01:47 > 0:01:48to fund it.

0:01:48 > 0:01:51to fund it.

0:01:51 > 0:01:54And as usual we've got three Westminster insiders who will take

0:01:54 > 0:01:57And as usual we've got three what's really going on.

0:01:57 > 0:02:00Today I'm joined by Tom Newton Dunn, Dia Chakravarty and George Eaton.

0:02:00 > 0:02:04The unfolding events over the past week in the cathedral city

0:02:04 > 0:02:06of Salisbury could have been taken straight from the pages

0:02:06 > 0:02:07of a spy thriller.

0:02:07 > 0:02:10The poisoning of a Russian former double agent who had passed secrets

0:02:10 > 0:02:14to Britain and moved to Salisbury after a 2010 spy swap, involved

0:02:14 > 0:02:16the use of a sinister nerve agent.

0:02:16 > 0:02:19It has shocked the country with the finger of suspicion

0:02:19 > 0:02:24pointing firmly at Moscow.

0:02:26 > 0:02:30The big story of the week started in Salisbury after a former

0:02:30 > 0:02:33Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter

0:02:33 > 0:02:35Yulia and the policeman who went to their aid all mysteriously fell

0:02:35 > 0:02:41ill because an as yet unidentified nerve agent.

0:02:45 > 0:02:4912 years ago, Alexander Litvinenko was killed by polonium 210.

0:02:49 > 0:02:53Was this more Russian foul play?

0:02:53 > 0:02:56Boris Johnson was quick to retaliate, saying there could be

0:02:56 > 0:02:59implications for this summer's World Cup in Russia.

0:02:59 > 0:03:04I think it will be very difficult to imagine that UK representation

0:03:04 > 0:03:07in that event could go ahead in the normal way.

0:03:07 > 0:03:09Did he mean the England team?

0:03:09 > 0:03:11The Prime Minister explained.

0:03:11 > 0:03:13The point the Foreign Secretary was making yesterday was that,

0:03:13 > 0:03:16depending on what comes out in relation to the investigation

0:03:16 > 0:03:19into the attack on the two individuals that took place

0:03:19 > 0:03:23in Salisbury, that it might be appropriate for the government

0:03:23 > 0:03:26to look at whether ministers and other dignitaries should attend

0:03:26 > 0:03:29the World Cup in Russia.

0:03:29 > 0:03:33Russian state TV mocked the Foreign Secretary for his comments,

0:03:33 > 0:03:37but the government's firm language persisted.

0:03:37 > 0:03:43The use of a nerve agent on UK soil is a brazen and reckless act.

0:03:43 > 0:03:50This was attempted murder in the most cruel and public way.

0:03:50 > 0:03:53We still can't get through a week without mentioning the B word

0:03:53 > 0:03:55as the Chancellor delivered the latest big Brexit speech.

0:03:55 > 0:03:58He's determined to get a good deal for the city.

0:03:58 > 0:04:03We still can't get through a week without mentioning the B word

0:04:03 > 0:04:05So I'm clear not only that it is possible to include

0:04:05 > 0:04:08financial services within a trade deal, but that it is very much

0:04:08 > 0:04:10in our mutual interest to do so.

0:04:10 > 0:04:12Perhaps unsurprisingly the EU disagreed.

0:04:12 > 0:04:14Also when it comes to financial services, life will be

0:04:14 > 0:04:19different after Brexit.

0:04:19 > 0:04:22The EU had other things to worry about, though, as Donald Trump put

0:04:22 > 0:04:26forward his highly controversial plan to make American steel

0:04:26 > 0:04:29and aluminium great again.

0:04:29 > 0:04:31Surrounded by metal workers, the President signed proclamations

0:04:31 > 0:04:36to impose a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium

0:04:36 > 0:04:39imports into the US.

0:04:39 > 0:04:44The European Union has not treated us well and it's been a very,

0:04:44 > 0:04:47very unfair trade situation.

0:04:47 > 0:04:50Claims of Parliamentary bullying and sexual harassment hit

0:04:50 > 0:04:52the headlines with some of the allegations going

0:04:52 > 0:04:54all the way to the top.

0:04:54 > 0:04:57Back in 2010, a woman called Kate Emms took up the position

0:04:57 > 0:05:01as John Bercow's private secretary.

0:05:01 > 0:05:04But she stood down from that post after less than a year.

0:05:04 > 0:05:07Her colleagues told Newsnight that this is because Mr Bercow's

0:05:07 > 0:05:12bullying left her unable to continue in that job.

0:05:12 > 0:05:14Theresa May enthusiastically welcomed Saudi royalty

0:05:14 > 0:05:16to Downing Street this week.

0:05:16 > 0:05:21Mohammed bin Salman was even treated to lunch at the Palace.

0:05:21 > 0:05:29Billboards sprung up extolling in the crown prince's virtues.

0:05:29 > 0:05:31Supporters of the man they call Mr Everything say

0:05:31 > 0:05:32he is a great reformer.

0:05:32 > 0:05:34But protests surrounding UK arms sales were also highly visible

0:05:34 > 0:05:37and with Saudi's intervention in Yemen ongoing, the visit

0:05:37 > 0:05:38angered Jeremy Corbyn.

0:05:38 > 0:05:42British arms sales have sharply increased and British military

0:05:42 > 0:05:45advisers are directing the war.

0:05:45 > 0:05:48It cannot be right that her government...

0:05:48 > 0:05:53Mr Speaker, it cannot be right that her government is colluding

0:05:53 > 0:05:58in what the United Nations says is evidence of war crimes.

0:05:58 > 0:06:02Clearly riled, Theresa May got her own back, calling

0:06:02 > 0:06:05Jeremy Corbyn out on the eve of International Women's Day.

0:06:05 > 0:06:08Can I thank the Right Honourable Gentleman

0:06:08 > 0:06:11for telling me that it is International Women's Day tomorrow.

0:06:11 > 0:06:14LAUGHTER.

0:06:14 > 0:06:21I think that's what's called "mansplaining".

0:06:21 > 0:06:29Tom, Dia and George were watching that with me.

0:06:32 > 0:06:34Now some insight and analysis into what's going on behind the

0:06:34 > 0:06:38headlines. The big story of the week is obviously the poisoning of Sergei

0:06:38 > 0:06:41Skripal and whether or not Russia was involved. A lot of people have

0:06:41 > 0:06:46been quick to assume that President Putin sanctioned this and it's a

0:06:46 > 0:06:50Russian state operation but can we be sure of that?Reasonably sure,

0:06:50 > 0:06:53yes, clearly there is no physical proof to produce at the moment. I

0:06:53 > 0:06:59think by the end of last week the government were in no doubt that

0:06:59 > 0:07:03this was ordered by the Russian state and in particular Vladimir

0:07:03 > 0:07:08Putin, who, under Russian state rules, has to sign of all foreign

0:07:08 > 0:07:12assassinations personally since rule change in 2006. The reason I think

0:07:12 > 0:07:16they are almost certain about this is quite frankly no one else has a

0:07:16 > 0:07:21motive to do that. Who would want to do a better job in spite of analogy

0:07:21 > 0:07:27on an old colonel living quietly in Salisbury? Not the people have the

0:07:27 > 0:07:31modes of delivery to do this, to pass a nerve agent, chemical

0:07:31 > 0:07:36weapons, on Britain's streets. Thirdly, this will be the killer,

0:07:36 > 0:07:41the scientific proof it was an extremely rare nerve agent, used,

0:07:41 > 0:07:47not one of the more widely available once you see in things like Syria,

0:07:47 > 0:07:50it's a rare particular type which has only been known to be produced

0:07:50 > 0:07:58in one or two laboratories in the world, one of them is in Moscow. The

0:07:58 > 0:08:00Moscow foreign spy service. What is fascinating is not just was Vladimir

0:08:00 > 0:08:05Putin responsible? It is why he wanted us to know he was

0:08:05 > 0:08:09responsible, because he left such a massive calling card, and that has

0:08:09 > 0:08:16been really bothering cabinet ministers in the last week.Dia, we

0:08:16 > 0:08:19had from the Chief Medical Officer who said traces of this nerve agent

0:08:19 > 0:08:24has been found in the restaurant where Sergei Skripal and his

0:08:24 > 0:08:27daughter were eating and 500 people were there at the same time and they

0:08:27 > 0:08:30should wash their clothes and clean their possessions that were with

0:08:30 > 0:08:35them. There is a small rescue but there is a risk. Frightening news

0:08:35 > 0:08:38like that is what drives home to people why it matters this is

0:08:38 > 0:08:43happening in the UK.Absolutely and there are so many questions about

0:08:43 > 0:08:46this, even before we do want to who was doing this. That's very

0:08:46 > 0:08:50important. This also questions about how the whole thing has been

0:08:50 > 0:08:54handled, seven days, and they are now telling these terrified

0:08:54 > 0:09:00residents to wash their clothes and possessions. Is that going to be

0:09:00 > 0:09:05enough? What exactly is this agent? If we see people in scary laboratory

0:09:05 > 0:09:11suits walking around, doing what they need to do, a quarantine going

0:09:11 > 0:09:17on, is it enough to say go and wash your clothes seven days later? The

0:09:17 > 0:09:19communication around it, I understand it is sensitive, that I

0:09:19 > 0:09:25think it has been dire. Really quite woeful. If I was living in Salisbury

0:09:25 > 0:09:31I would be very, very worried. George, the UK Government, once the

0:09:31 > 0:09:35investigation has finished and they decide whether this was a

0:09:35 > 0:09:38state-sponsored assassination, they need to decide how to respond. All

0:09:38 > 0:09:42we have practically heard of so far is some rubber mats might not go to

0:09:42 > 0:09:47the World Cup in Russia, presumably will have to do come up with

0:09:47 > 0:09:50something better than that -- diplomats. What can we do that

0:09:50 > 0:09:56Russia will care about?The pressure from some Labour Party and

0:09:56 > 0:10:02Conservative MPs is to introduce a version of the Magnitsky Act, which

0:10:02 > 0:10:06means it's easier to freeze the assets of Russians suspected of

0:10:06 > 0:10:09human rights abuses or corruption, and expel them, but Britain is

0:10:09 > 0:10:14severely limited and I think it's worth asking the question why did

0:10:14 > 0:10:19Russia choose this moment to target Britain? We are set to leave the

0:10:19 > 0:10:21European Union, huge burdens on governments, stretching the

0:10:21 > 0:10:27government bandwidth to its limits, and Donald Trump and the USA who we

0:10:27 > 0:10:30supposedly have a special relationship with, is imposing

0:10:30 > 0:10:33tariffs on steel and has not made any robust intervention over this,

0:10:33 > 0:10:39despite the fact he normally rushes to tweet when there is a terrorist

0:10:39 > 0:10:43attack on British soil after making unhelpful remarks. He has not been

0:10:43 > 0:10:46standing shoulder to shoulder with Britain in this instance.There has

0:10:46 > 0:10:52been a suggestion this should come up at the next Nato summit in

0:10:52 > 0:10:56Brussels, and they could be looking for some kind of coordinated

0:10:56 > 0:11:02response from international allies. Is that likely?It's difficult to

0:11:02 > 0:11:06see at the moment. Russia's strength here is significant and Vladimir

0:11:06 > 0:11:10Putin, such a brazen act, clearly he does not feel Britain has the

0:11:10 > 0:11:15capacity to respond. Last December, when we were short of gas, the one

0:11:15 > 0:11:20country we turn to was Russia.We will be back to talk about the other

0:11:20 > 0:11:22stories during the programme.

0:11:22 > 0:11:25The poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter carries

0:11:25 > 0:11:26echoes of the murder of Alexander Litvinenko,

0:11:26 > 0:11:29the ex KGB officer who died after drinking tea laced

0:11:29 > 0:11:32with radioactive polonium 210 in a London hotel in 2006.

0:11:32 > 0:11:36And this morning, his widow, Marina Litvinenko urged Theresa May

0:11:36 > 0:11:42to adopt American-style laws that are tougher on Russia.

0:11:42 > 0:11:48You need to be very selective who you are friends with. And when you

0:11:48 > 0:11:51allow people with money to come to your country and make a business,

0:11:51 > 0:11:55you need to be sure what kind of money these people try to bring to

0:11:55 > 0:12:00your country because very often this money is stolen from Russian people

0:12:00 > 0:12:10and sometimes it is a very serious crime behind it. I'm

0:12:10 > 0:12:15crime behind it. I'm absolutely asking this question to unite this

0:12:15 > 0:12:19action already done in the United States, in Europe. I think the UK

0:12:19 > 0:12:21has to do the same steps.

0:12:21 > 0:12:24Joining me now from Edinburgh is the former Home and Foreign

0:12:24 > 0:12:25Secretary, Jack Straw.

0:12:25 > 0:12:32Thank you very much for joining us this morning. Do you agree that the

0:12:32 > 0:12:37UK needs to introduce tougher laws, the likes of which the US has?I do

0:12:37 > 0:12:42think we should do this now. I think have to take this very careful

0:12:42 > 0:12:48step-by-step way, so I think the approach of Amber Rudd and her

0:12:48 > 0:12:52security minister, Ben Wallace, is the right one. Jumping to

0:12:52 > 0:12:56conclusions in this situation is not a sensible way to proceed. The other

0:12:56 > 0:13:00thing we have to think about very carefully, when it comes to those

0:13:00 > 0:13:03who are saying something must be done and if you are in government,

0:13:03 > 0:13:06you get this all the time, in situations like this, something has

0:13:06 > 0:13:10got to be done, is what happens when you have to get back to normality? I

0:13:10 > 0:13:17often reflect on the sanctions were imposed to Zimbabwe for the

0:13:17 > 0:13:25different situation but there are parallels. In retrospect, Robert

0:13:25 > 0:13:31Mugabe was a very bad man, but in retrospect I often wonder if it was

0:13:31 > 0:13:38a sensible thing to do. In the end we had to get the troops down again.

0:13:38 > 0:13:42It was very tricky so people need to think very carefully indeed. This is

0:13:42 > 0:13:45on the assumption the Russian state was behind this, which has not yet

0:13:45 > 0:13:51been approved or announced.If we do establish that and work on the

0:13:51 > 0:13:56presumption for now and I understand your reservations, would President

0:13:56 > 0:14:01Putin care if we were to try and institute some kind of sanctions or

0:14:01 > 0:14:05punishments or does it just increase the siege mentality Russia is under

0:14:05 > 0:14:08threat from the rest of the world which in many ways bolstered his

0:14:08 > 0:14:14position in advance of the elections coming up soon?If we were to do it

0:14:14 > 0:14:18unilaterally, just the UK, he wouldn't careful stop with the EU,

0:14:18 > 0:14:24and more other major allies including the USA, he might take

0:14:24 > 0:14:29notice but frankly, I think he regarded as a medal if we were

0:14:29 > 0:14:34simply to do it by ourselves and he knows that, post the collapse of the

0:14:34 > 0:14:38Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, there is a huge

0:14:38 > 0:14:44amount of Russian money in the UK, particularly in London, and a

0:14:44 > 0:14:48Magnitsky Act won't make that much difference to the level of

0:14:48 > 0:14:52dependence of some very highly respectable British London based

0:14:52 > 0:14:59financial institutions with Russian money.

0:15:00 > 0:15:03With the Alexander Litvinenko case, an enquiry two tiers to get to the

0:15:03 > 0:15:09bottom of what happened there, and could only conclude that it was

0:15:09 > 0:15:13probably orchestrated by the Russian state. Can you take any sort of

0:15:13 > 0:15:18action on the basis of something probably being true?People need to

0:15:18 > 0:15:25bear in mind the example of Iraq. The evidence against Saddam Hussein

0:15:25 > 0:15:29having and continuing to have biological weapons was overwhelming.

0:15:29 > 0:15:35The question came up in United Nations Security Council

0:15:35 > 0:15:40resolutions, passed unanimously. That is what Tony Blair and I used

0:15:40 > 0:15:43almost 15 years ago to persuade people to go to war against Iraq,

0:15:43 > 0:15:49and it turned out to be completely incorrect, so you've got to be

0:15:49 > 0:15:52really careful. I have the scars literally on my back in respect of

0:15:52 > 0:15:57this. In the heat of the moment, with people in the House of Commons

0:15:57 > 0:16:02and the newspapers screeching, something 's got to be done, being

0:16:02 > 0:16:09non-explicit about what... Moreover, we shouldn't descend to the level of

0:16:09 > 0:16:13the criminal justice system in the Russian Federation or other states

0:16:13 > 0:16:22like that. There are demands today from some Conservatives to ban the

0:16:22 > 0:16:29Russia Today programme.The Shadow Chancellor said today that he

0:16:29 > 0:16:32doesn't think Labour MPs will be appearing on there in the future.

0:16:32 > 0:16:37Will you do the same?I have not appeared on there for some time, but

0:16:37 > 0:16:42I will make a decision on my own terms. We have to be careful about

0:16:42 > 0:16:48doing that in the absence of evidence. Far better for Britain's

0:16:48 > 0:16:53position in the world to have high standards of probity. It's better to

0:16:53 > 0:16:59bear in mind that well intentioned people who do not lie at all,

0:16:59 > 0:17:02including myself, and the House of Commons by a huge majority, and

0:17:02 > 0:17:07public opinion at the time, came to the wrong decision with respect to

0:17:07 > 0:17:12whether or not Saddam Hussein still had biological weapons on the basis

0:17:12 > 0:17:16of probabilities. That is the difficulty here. People will of

0:17:16 > 0:17:21course be very impatient indeed to have a culprit here, and obviously

0:17:21 > 0:17:25stacking it up on the basis of circumstantial evidence, you can

0:17:25 > 0:17:31make a very good case that it is the Russian state, but we need a bit of

0:17:31 > 0:17:35sobriety before we come to that conclusion. Thank God that Amber

0:17:35 > 0:17:39Rudd is the Home Secretary at the moment. Someone else I could think

0:17:39 > 0:17:45of in the British Cabinet, and she is taking a very measured approach

0:17:45 > 0:17:48to this.

0:17:48 > 0:17:51Here with me now is Pauline Neville Jones, who was Security

0:17:51 > 0:17:53and Counter Terrorism Minister under David Cameron, when Theresa May

0:17:53 > 0:17:56was Home Secretary.

0:17:56 > 0:17:59That was fascinating, listening to Jack Straw drawing parallels with

0:17:59 > 0:18:03Iraq and what was supposedly the evidence of chemical and biological

0:18:03 > 0:18:07weapons there, saying we have to be very careful about pointing the

0:18:07 > 0:18:12finger of blame. With your security experience, will we ever be able to

0:18:12 > 0:18:16establish whether this was sanctioned by the Russians?I doubt

0:18:16 > 0:18:21the Russian state will admit it was involved. In order to get absolute

0:18:21 > 0:18:26proof, what we needed with Litvinenko was to have a trial.

0:18:26 > 0:18:31There hasn't been a trial because the Russians wouldn't cooperate. I

0:18:31 > 0:18:34think it's right for the government to be cautious about saying anything

0:18:34 > 0:18:39now, because it mustn't be seen to lead the investigation and therefore

0:18:39 > 0:18:43damage it, but once we have established a degree of probability

0:18:43 > 0:18:49about the cause, that is the time for action. I think the chances of

0:18:49 > 0:18:53it not being connected with Russia in some way are very low.The means

0:18:53 > 0:18:58would point to that, but what is the motive? This is a retired agent

0:18:58 > 0:19:05who's been living here for years. Came as part of the spy as well. The

0:19:05 > 0:19:10unwritten rule of espionage is that you don't touch spies. What dangers

0:19:10 > 0:19:18does he pose to the Russian regime? I think we simply don't know the

0:19:18 > 0:19:22full story. There's plenty of evidence that the Russian regime is

0:19:22 > 0:19:27pretty vicious. Even if he was part of a swap, I don't think you can

0:19:27 > 0:19:31exclude the fact that the Russian state might decide to take action

0:19:31 > 0:19:38against him.Looking at pictures of him and his daughter there. It's

0:19:38 > 0:19:43difficult to see what threat they posed to the Russian state. Is it

0:19:43 > 0:19:45not worth considering the possibility that they may have been

0:19:45 > 0:19:54involved in something else that isn't technically state faction --

0:19:54 > 0:19:59state sanctioned?If possible. It is possible that the Mafia was

0:19:59 > 0:20:03involved. The question is, what lay behind the Mafia and where did the

0:20:03 > 0:20:08nerve agent come from? Is it possible to come from elsewhere than

0:20:08 > 0:20:15a state laboratory? It's difficult to imagine that the threat isn't

0:20:15 > 0:20:22going to go back to Russia somehow. Is it possible to take action

0:20:22 > 0:20:25against wealthy Russian oligarchs living in London, even if we change

0:20:25 > 0:20:33the laws and bring in something like the Magnitsky act? Mrs Litvinenko

0:20:33 > 0:20:36got a letter from Theresa May, Home Secretary at the time, saying that

0:20:36 > 0:20:40we want to make sure nothing like this happens again in the UK, and

0:20:40 > 0:20:46now it has.There are already powers which the government can use. One of

0:20:46 > 0:20:48the reasons why there was an argument in the Commons the other

0:20:48 > 0:20:55day about this so-called Magnitsky amendment was that the government

0:20:55 > 0:21:00said, we've got the powers. You may say, we need to use these powers,

0:21:00 > 0:21:05for example to investigate people who have unexplained wealth. There

0:21:05 > 0:21:11are things we can do.These are people who are not necessarily

0:21:11 > 0:21:16linked to Putin and the regime, so these are two distinct things.They

0:21:16 > 0:21:21are. You have to be careful how you do this, and it requires resources.

0:21:21 > 0:21:25This is a complicated job. Jack Straw put his finger on it when he

0:21:25 > 0:21:30said, we need to act in concert with allies. This is the thing that the

0:21:30 > 0:21:35Russians really are going to take notice of. At the moment, it's fair

0:21:35 > 0:21:41to say that although we are Aljaz overtime, we have gradually

0:21:41 > 0:21:47increased the pressure. With sanctions, and Nato have increased

0:21:47 > 0:21:50measures on its borders, but we still have a great deal of

0:21:50 > 0:21:54harassment from the Russians. They are taking action in people's

0:21:54 > 0:22:01politics. They are conducting cyber attacks. We need to act as an

0:22:01 > 0:22:06alliance so that the Russians really do believe, and they seek positive

0:22:06 > 0:22:11evidence of it, that action against one is an action against all, and

0:22:11 > 0:22:15collective action follows. We need to have a strategy that brings

0:22:15 > 0:22:22together what we do militarily, what we do to protect our citizens in the

0:22:22 > 0:22:26cyber sphere, what we do in broadcasting, so we have an all

0:22:26 > 0:22:32encompassing way of dealing with Russia.Thank you very much for

0:22:32 > 0:22:35coming to talk to us.

0:22:35 > 0:22:37The new Universities Minister, Sam Gyimah, has set himself

0:22:37 > 0:22:38a rather ambitious task.

0:22:38 > 0:22:41Travelling up and down the country, he's trying to attract students

0:22:41 > 0:22:42to the Conservative Party.

0:22:42 > 0:22:45With just one in five voters aged between 18 and 24 voting Tory

0:22:45 > 0:22:47in the 2017 election, it's been jokingly called

0:22:47 > 0:22:48his "punishment tour".

0:22:48 > 0:22:50Our reporter Elizabeth Glinka joined Sam on his visit

0:22:50 > 0:22:51to Canterbury Christ Church University.

0:22:51 > 0:22:59And just to warn you, her report contains flashing images.

0:23:11 > 0:23:12Was that a youth quake?

0:23:12 > 0:23:14Reports of a massive increase in young voters at

0:23:14 > 0:23:17the last general election may have been exaggerated.

0:23:17 > 0:23:20# I got the big size 12s on my feet...

0:23:20 > 0:23:24Nationally, the turnout didn't really change, but of

0:23:24 > 0:23:29the young people that did vote, a whopping 67% went for Labour.

0:23:29 > 0:23:31And in a place like Canterbury, where there

0:23:31 > 0:23:34are more than 30,000 students, it's thought that their votes played

0:23:34 > 0:23:39a big part in the city electing its first ever Labour MP.

0:23:39 > 0:23:41Canterbury.

0:23:41 > 0:23:44This has been Conservative since World War I.

0:23:44 > 0:23:50An extraordinary surge in their share, up 20% here.

0:23:50 > 0:23:52In general, everyone just always seems to think

0:23:52 > 0:23:54that the Conservatives are always doing something wrong,

0:23:54 > 0:23:56so even if you don't know about the Conservatives,

0:23:56 > 0:23:59all you hear, you just think negative things about it.

0:23:59 > 0:24:01Most of my friends always slander the Conservative name, saying,

0:24:01 > 0:24:04"It's only for middle-aged men who want the benefit from themselves."

0:24:04 > 0:24:07Do you think you have to be quite brave to

0:24:07 > 0:24:08say, "I am a Conservative?"

0:24:08 > 0:24:09Yeah.

0:24:09 > 0:24:11At first, I was like, OK, I'm not going

0:24:11 > 0:24:14to say anything to my friends, because they will just kick off.

0:24:14 > 0:24:17One of my flatmates was like, "If you are not a Labour

0:24:17 > 0:24:18voter, don't talk to me."

0:24:18 > 0:24:19Labour had a lot of backing.

0:24:19 > 0:24:21They had people like AJ Tracey jumping on.

0:24:21 > 0:24:24So once they see that, everyone kind of runs

0:24:24 > 0:24:25to it, like, let's vote Labour.

0:24:25 > 0:24:26# Tracksuit grey, black, blue

0:24:26 > 0:24:28# I was just a hope-filled kid like you...

0:24:28 > 0:24:32AJ Tracey is just one of any number of current music acts who publicly

0:24:32 > 0:24:34endorsed the Labour Party at the last general election,

0:24:34 > 0:24:37helping to build a brand which was apparently three times

0:24:37 > 0:24:42more attractive to young voters.

0:24:42 > 0:24:45To be fair, it's not as if there was some sort of golden

0:24:45 > 0:24:47era of Conservative hipsters, but the figures suggest

0:24:47 > 0:24:51things are getting worse.

0:24:51 > 0:24:54And that's why the new Universities Minister, Sam Gyimah,

0:24:54 > 0:24:58is currently on a nationwide tour, including here in Canterbury,

0:24:58 > 0:25:00where he is attempting to at least start a conversation

0:25:00 > 0:25:04with a generation of voters who see his party as old, male and stale.

0:25:04 > 0:25:08Minister, this seems a good time to jump in.

0:25:08 > 0:25:12This is an incredibly difficult job, isn't it, convincing young people

0:25:12 > 0:25:15to vote Conservative?

0:25:15 > 0:25:19We do have our work cut out for us, but I think the first thing to do

0:25:19 > 0:25:20is actually to be on campus.

0:25:20 > 0:25:24If we allow Jeremy Corbyn to be the only one on campus, then we only

0:25:24 > 0:25:27have ourselves to blame.

0:25:27 > 0:25:29Many students will say to you, well, it's fine, you're having

0:25:29 > 0:25:31a review on student fees and many other things.

0:25:31 > 0:25:34The Labour Party's promising us they're going to get rid of fees.

0:25:34 > 0:25:37We know what happens when you promised something for free.

0:25:37 > 0:25:40Numbers are going to be capped, which means fewer people

0:25:40 > 0:25:42going to university.

0:25:42 > 0:25:44It's the well off that are going to do it.

0:25:44 > 0:25:45That's not what we're about.

0:25:45 > 0:25:47I'm not really worried about Jeremy Corbyn's free

0:25:47 > 0:25:50for all offer, because it's not realistic, and he can't deliver it,

0:25:50 > 0:25:53and we only need to look at countries like Scotland to see

0:25:53 > 0:25:54that it's not going to work.

0:25:54 > 0:25:57And what reaction are you expecting when you head in there?

0:25:57 > 0:25:59Well, I thought it might be rowdy like PMQs.

0:25:59 > 0:26:00I've no idea.

0:26:00 > 0:26:03I haven't had the mob treatment anywhere yet so far.

0:26:03 > 0:26:04# Your face ain't big for my boot

0:26:04 > 0:26:06# Kick up the yout

0:26:06 > 0:26:09# I know that I kick up the yout...

0:26:09 > 0:26:11There might not have been a youth quake nationally,

0:26:11 > 0:26:15but there was a bit of a youth quake in Canterbury, and I want to listen

0:26:15 > 0:26:17and I want to understand.

0:26:17 > 0:26:19You know, we've had enough of austerity politics.

0:26:19 > 0:26:22We've had enough of student fees, things like that, and we've seen

0:26:22 > 0:26:25the NHS get less and less funded over time.

0:26:25 > 0:26:27And it's hard to ignore those things.

0:26:27 > 0:26:30You know, we are going to take action against you.

0:26:30 > 0:26:32# Bros in my ear saying "Stormz, don't do it"

0:26:32 > 0:26:34# Devil on my shoulder I don't lack

0:26:34 > 0:26:36# Hit 'em with a crowbar, I don't scrap...

0:26:36 > 0:26:39Well, lots of discussion, some of it a bit feisty,

0:26:39 > 0:26:41but did the Minister win any hearts and minds?

0:26:41 > 0:26:43He's really good at talking to students, and he's

0:26:43 > 0:26:44here to talk to everyone.

0:26:44 > 0:26:47Would it make you feel differently about voting Conservative?

0:26:47 > 0:26:50I took from your comments that you were not a Conservative voter.

0:26:50 > 0:26:53Definitely not, but I did think he made some good points,

0:26:53 > 0:26:54and he was very measured.

0:26:54 > 0:26:57It's quite clear that there are a number of people here who have

0:26:57 > 0:27:00been seduced by Jeremy Corbyn, but I think the purpose of this

0:27:00 > 0:27:03is to let them realise that there is a Conservative voice,

0:27:03 > 0:27:06there is a Conservative point of view, and that as a minister

0:27:06 > 0:27:09I am here to listen.

0:27:09 > 0:27:10Clearly a smart man.

0:27:10 > 0:27:13I'm not sure it's better or worse to have a smart

0:27:13 > 0:27:16Tory or a stupid Tory, but he knew what he was

0:27:16 > 0:27:18talking about, even though I disagree with him.

0:27:18 > 0:27:20Would it make you think twice about voting Conservative?

0:27:20 > 0:27:24No, I will never vote Conservative in my life.

0:27:24 > 0:27:30So as the sun sets in Canterbury, there's still a long way to go.

0:27:30 > 0:27:38And Universities Minister Sam Gymiah joins me now.

0:27:38 > 0:27:44A smart Tory. That is a compliment from one of the students! Do you

0:27:44 > 0:27:49think you persuaded many of them to vote Tory?The point of the exercise

0:27:49 > 0:27:54was not to persuade people to vote Conservative. As Universities

0:27:54 > 0:27:57Minister, I'm very conscious that students are investing a

0:27:57 > 0:28:03considerable amount of money in their education, so they should have

0:28:03 > 0:28:06a voice in the corridors of power. Gone are the days that the

0:28:06 > 0:28:11Universities Minister 's spends time with the chancellors and not the

0:28:11 > 0:28:16students. Jeremy Corbyn has a voice on the campus, and if we allow that

0:28:16 > 0:28:21to continue, we only have ourselves to blame. The starting point in the

0:28:21 > 0:28:24process is listening and engaging, rather than going in there to preach

0:28:24 > 0:28:29to them about what their problems and answers are.You have a mountain

0:28:29 > 0:28:35to climb with young people. Let's have a look at the numbers. At the

0:28:35 > 0:28:41last election, between 18 to 24-year-olds, 67% voted Labour.

0:28:41 > 0:28:47Unless you can change those minds, you have a generational problem with

0:28:47 > 0:28:50voters, and you will not see Conservative governments in the

0:28:50 > 0:28:54future, unless people change their minds.What I am doing at the moment

0:28:54 > 0:28:59is pressing, which is why the party is beginning to engage with students

0:28:59 > 0:29:02at this level. A number of things have come up as I've travelled

0:29:02 > 0:29:07around the country that we can address. Austerity keeps coming up.

0:29:07 > 0:29:12We stopped making the case for why we had to reduce the deficit from

0:29:12 > 0:29:16the extreme levels that we inherited from the Labour Party. One man said

0:29:16 > 0:29:30to me, all I have ever heard the Conservatives talk

0:29:30 > 0:29:33about is austerity. It must be your ideology. That is clearly not the

0:29:33 > 0:29:35case. It is a matter of necessity, not ideology.We have the spring

0:29:35 > 0:29:38statement coming up next week. The Chancellor has said this morning

0:29:38 > 0:29:42that we are in a much better financial position at the moment

0:29:42 > 0:29:45then we have been, but it doesn't sound like he's going to end

0:29:45 > 0:29:50austerity. Would you encourage him to do so?This brings statement is

0:29:50 > 0:29:54an update on the public finances. But he is going to point further

0:29:54 > 0:29:59ahead to the budget in the autumn, and he doesn't seem to be talking

0:29:59 > 0:30:03about the increased public spending you think will attract people to the

0:30:03 > 0:30:08Tories.We are not going to say we are going to return to discredited

0:30:08 > 0:30:13economic policies of 40 years ago. What he should be saying to young

0:30:13 > 0:30:17people is that the balanced approach that he is pursuing, in a world

0:30:17 > 0:30:22where we have technological challenge and a global market

0:30:22 > 0:30:25economy, the Conservatives are uniquely placed to deliver

0:30:25 > 0:30:31prosperity for them. Another issue that comes up is our motives. When

0:30:31 > 0:30:35we talk about economic prosperity, people feel it is for the few.

0:30:35 > 0:30:43Sometimes I have to explain that the top rate of tax has been higher

0:30:43 > 0:30:46under the Conservatives, and that the top 1% pay 20% of income tax.

0:30:46 > 0:30:52They didn't know that. We need to talk about -- we need to persuade

0:30:52 > 0:30:54them that when we talk about economic prosperity, it is their

0:30:54 > 0:31:00future we are talking about.

0:31:00 > 0:31:03You addressed tuition fees in the film but look at maintenance grants

0:31:03 > 0:31:07being cut by this government so the poorer students to go to university

0:31:07 > 0:31:10will lead with larger debt than those from better off backgrounds.

0:31:10 > 0:31:15When that is their experience right now on campus, no wonder they keep

0:31:15 > 0:31:21thinking you are looking after the better off and not the

0:31:21 > 0:31:23disadvantaged.Canterbury has the best proportion of students went

0:31:23 > 0:31:27university for the first time in their families. Many of those would

0:31:27 > 0:31:35not be at university at all had we pursue the Jeremy Corbyn policy.

0:31:36 > 0:31:40Jeremy Corbyn is promising to abolish tuition fees so that would

0:31:40 > 0:31:44make it easier for students to go to university.Once you make university

0:31:44 > 0:31:47free you can't have a current policy we have which is that the numbers

0:31:47 > 0:31:53who can go to university are capped. At a time when the numbers were not

0:31:53 > 0:31:58capped, our own history, very few people went to university and mentor

0:31:58 > 0:32:03very few poor people went university. A consequence of the

0:32:03 > 0:32:05Conservative policy is a lot of disadvantaged people are giving to

0:32:05 > 0:32:09university for the first time and we have a student finance scheme where

0:32:09 > 0:32:15you do not pay a penny as a first burner unless you in over £25,000

0:32:15 > 0:32:20and after 30 years, whatever you have managed to pay, is written. I'm

0:32:20 > 0:32:23not saying is perfect.That very system is replacing grants for

0:32:23 > 0:32:31poorer students with loans. Why? If you are so keen to get disadvantaged

0:32:31 > 0:32:34students into universities, wide takeaway maintenance grants?There

0:32:34 > 0:32:38is a review looking at the whole system, but when many students

0:32:38 > 0:32:42complain about the student finances, they focus on accommodation.

0:32:42 > 0:32:47Somewhere like London, landlords want to get the years rent in

0:32:47 > 0:32:51advance. That is a difficult situation for them and the cost of

0:32:51 > 0:32:57living issues, rather than assuming we know...There's an interest rate

0:32:57 > 0:33:02on a student loan of over 6% which is way in excess of what people are

0:33:02 > 0:33:09borrowing on mortgages etc.The cost of living in University...They must

0:33:09 > 0:33:14be worried about it.Whatever your level of earnings, you pay 9% of

0:33:14 > 0:33:18your income, which means higher rate in graduates pay more to the system

0:33:18 > 0:33:25but I also think to narrow the debate on student fees, students

0:33:25 > 0:33:29have a lot of interest, not all students think student fees is their

0:33:29 > 0:33:34big issue. Someone to see their politicians care about making the

0:33:34 > 0:33:38world a better place. What kind of world they are going into, they will

0:33:38 > 0:33:42get on the housing ladder, housing is big issue for them but the

0:33:42 > 0:33:46economy prospers, so I think that's why you have got to listen and not

0:33:46 > 0:33:50assume all students have the same view and there is one answer that

0:33:50 > 0:33:54deals with all the problems of every 18-21 -year-old.Mental health keeps

0:33:54 > 0:34:00cropping up. I'm sure the university 's lecturers strike came up as well.

0:34:00 > 0:34:05Now students are paying £9,000 in fees, they are consumers as well as

0:34:05 > 0:34:08students, so should they get a refund for the lessons they have not

0:34:08 > 0:34:15been taught?Universities do not pay lecturers on the day they strike,

0:34:15 > 0:34:19they should not pocket those funds, but look at compensation for

0:34:19 > 0:34:23students and there are real ways of compensating students.Would you

0:34:23 > 0:34:28compel them to do that?I'm not in a position to compel them to do that.

0:34:28 > 0:34:31There is the regulator for university who has a wide-ranging

0:34:31 > 0:34:37remit. I'm encouraged some universities are taking this

0:34:37 > 0:34:43seriously. Kings College London will offer financial compensation. I

0:34:43 > 0:34:47think they should look at this very seriously. I am disappointed I am

0:34:47 > 0:34:50seeing lots of petitions out there from Durham University, a petition

0:34:50 > 0:34:57of 5000 students, asking for compensation. I want to university

0:34:57 > 0:35:00to respond constructively, because we are in the age of the student and

0:35:00 > 0:35:04we are there to serve.One quick question, talking about Russia on

0:35:04 > 0:35:09the programme so far this morning, a story this morning in the papers

0:35:09 > 0:35:13saying over £800 million has been donated to the Tory party from

0:35:13 > 0:35:18Russian link to donors since Theresa May took over, even notice that you

0:35:18 > 0:35:21wanted an arms length relationship. Is that something that should be

0:35:21 > 0:35:26discouraged in the future and should the money be returned now?To make a

0:35:26 > 0:35:28donation to a political party in this country you have to be a

0:35:28 > 0:35:37citizen Dungannon

0:35:37 > 0:35:41citizen Dungannon -- and betting needs to be taken place. Modern

0:35:41 > 0:35:47Britain is made up by people from all sorts of places. Some groups of

0:35:47 > 0:35:50people cannot participate in Aber Democratic life to the fall, and we

0:35:50 > 0:35:54have got to be clear, these are British citizens from Russia. Not

0:35:54 > 0:36:00the Kremlin donating to the Conservative Party.Of course not,

0:36:00 > 0:36:04but there could be a question of where those funds came from in the

0:36:04 > 0:36:08first place for the wedding end up on the front page of a Sunday

0:36:08 > 0:36:11newspaper saying this much money has been donated to the Conservative

0:36:11 > 0:36:14Party, maybe it would be better to think again where you receive your

0:36:14 > 0:36:19large donations from?It's not just the letter of the law but vetting

0:36:19 > 0:36:26should be thorough.Sam Gyimah, thank you very much for coming in to

0:36:26 > 0:36:27talk to us.

0:36:27 > 0:36:28It's coming up to 11.40.

0:36:28 > 0:36:29You're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:36:29 > 0:36:31Still to come, we'll be discussing the economy.

0:36:31 > 0:36:34Is it time to end austerity?

0:36:40 > 0:36:42Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.

0:36:42 > 0:36:44Later in the programme, the Conservatives and the main

0:36:44 > 0:36:47nursing union say action's needed to ensure Wales has enough

0:36:47 > 0:36:48nurses to meet demand.

0:36:48 > 0:36:50And Carwyn Jones says he wants to make Wales the safest place

0:36:50 > 0:36:52to be a woman in Europe.

0:36:52 > 0:36:59But how would that work?

0:36:59 > 0:37:02But first, he was our most senior diplomat in Brussels,

0:37:02 > 0:37:04and the author of Article 50 to boot.

0:37:04 > 0:37:06So as you might expect, Lord John Kerr has trenchant views

0:37:06 > 0:37:08on where the whole Brexit debate is going.

0:37:08 > 0:37:11He was at the University of South Wales on Friday,

0:37:11 > 0:37:13where I began by asking him what message he wanted to give

0:37:13 > 0:37:21to the students there.

0:37:21 > 0:37:28The main point I want to discusses whether we can get away with cherry

0:37:28 > 0:37:35picking, whether as Theresa May said in her speech last week, we can pick

0:37:35 > 0:37:41and choose and bits of the single market that we want to get back into

0:37:41 > 0:37:46when we leave or stay in, I and various agencies that we would like

0:37:46 > 0:37:52to be in, the European Union has said that it doesn't like the sound

0:37:52 > 0:37:59of that and thinks we should be either in or out. There is the

0:37:59 > 0:38:02possibility of some compromises and the European Council later on this

0:38:02 > 0:38:11month will start looking at that and I think myself that probably quite a

0:38:11 > 0:38:15lot of what Theresa May asked for is not obtainable but maybe it was just

0:38:15 > 0:38:21an opening shot.I guess that is the point. Maybe does not obtainable but

0:38:21 > 0:38:26in a negotiation, you need to have your opening salvo and maybe meet

0:38:26 > 0:38:29somewhere in the middle. Is it almost defeatist to say it will not

0:38:29 > 0:38:34be possible to cherry pick. We might end up somewhere in the middle in

0:38:34 > 0:38:39the end? It will all take a very long time

0:38:39 > 0:38:47and we will not know when we leave, if we leave in March next year, what

0:38:47 > 0:38:51the future arrangement with the European Union will be because you

0:38:51 > 0:38:56can't draft that treaty until we are a third country outside negotiating

0:38:56 > 0:39:02with all the others. We will have a divorce treaty, that will be agreed.

0:39:02 > 0:39:09And they are going to try and finish that one quite soon. But we won't

0:39:09 > 0:39:14know what the long-term arrangement will be and that will take at least

0:39:14 > 0:39:18five or six years to negotiate.Does that mean you think this

0:39:18 > 0:39:21transitional period we have heard so much about where we will be out of

0:39:21 > 0:39:24the European Union but not yet totally out of it in terms of all

0:39:24 > 0:39:30the procedures and so on, you think that will laugh with her last five

0:39:30 > 0:39:36or six years?No, I don't. The European Union will insist it lasts

0:39:36 > 0:39:42only two years because their lawyers will say you can't do as part of a

0:39:42 > 0:39:46divorce treaty something which has a very long lasting effect. I'm afraid

0:39:46 > 0:39:50there will be another period after the end of the transition period

0:39:50 > 0:39:56when we still don't know where we are going.Transition period plus?I

0:39:56 > 0:40:01am afraid that is where we are heading at the moment, yes.What are

0:40:01 > 0:40:06the elements that you think have been most difficult? Is it the four

0:40:06 > 0:40:09pillars of the free demand the singles market and the customs union

0:40:09 > 0:40:13and so on more are there other matters concerning trade that could

0:40:13 > 0:40:18be more problematic?I think we made a mistake backing autumn of 2016

0:40:18 > 0:40:24when Theresa May said we would have no truck with the European Court of

0:40:24 > 0:40:26Justice, Freedom of movement and we want out of this customs union and

0:40:26 > 0:40:31the single market and I think it was a pity to adopt very firm positions

0:40:31 > 0:40:36on these straightaway and I think the problem we now have with the

0:40:36 > 0:40:43Irish border results principally from deciding we don't want to be in

0:40:43 > 0:40:46a customs union with the European Union.I guess with the customs

0:40:46 > 0:40:50union, one of the problems you have is it limits to a large extent your

0:40:50 > 0:40:55ability to trade with the rest of the world. It prohibits it. It comes

0:40:55 > 0:40:58down to, don't we think there are more opportunities globally than

0:40:58 > 0:41:04there are just in our new neighbours?Absolutely not. I wish

0:41:04 > 0:41:08it were so but it is not. The economic analysis the government

0:41:08 > 0:41:12tried to conceal that has come out this week in London shows that you

0:41:12 > 0:41:24gain in the outside world perhaps 0.2%- 0.7% of GDP. You lose around

0:41:24 > 0:41:270.5% GDP by losing your advantages in the Castle Market just across the

0:41:27 > 0:41:35Channel. It is a myth that the world out there really wants to trade more

0:41:35 > 0:41:39with Britain. Do you think Donald Trump looks like the sort of guy who

0:41:39 > 0:41:45is going to give us a nice sweetheart deal? America is quite a

0:41:45 > 0:41:49protectionist country, always. When you are in trade negotiations, it is

0:41:49 > 0:41:54arm wrestling. Size matters. We at present have deals with the rest of

0:41:54 > 0:41:59the world which are on the basis of they are wanting access to an

0:41:59 > 0:42:04European Union market of 500 million people, including us. So they have

0:42:04 > 0:42:09made concessions to us in the outside world. 70% of the world now

0:42:09 > 0:42:13of our trade is with countries that are either in a trade agreement with

0:42:13 > 0:42:20the EU or ones where one is being negotiated. And we have good

0:42:20 > 0:42:23preferential terms which will be hard pressed to maintain when we are

0:42:23 > 0:42:29just a market of 65 million and less attractive to them.Do you think the

0:42:29 > 0:42:31tide is turning, not among the political class, but among the

0:42:31 > 0:42:39public who clearly voted to leave?I think it may well be that the crunch

0:42:39 > 0:42:41comes this autumn when the government have to explain to the

0:42:41 > 0:42:47House of Commons what deal they are bringing back. And they have

0:42:47 > 0:42:51promised that there will be a meaningful vote in the House of

0:42:51 > 0:42:54Commons. I don't know what meaningful vote means. John Major

0:42:54 > 0:43:00said the other day that what it should mean is Parliament are asked

0:43:00 > 0:43:05to accept or reject the deal or send the negotiators back to try harder

0:43:05 > 0:43:10or invite the country to say whether this is what it had in mind and this

0:43:10 > 0:43:20is what we can go ahead with. So the idea of a People's poll, a check on

0:43:20 > 0:43:24the Brexit deal, is it what the country wanted, that seems to me to

0:43:24 > 0:43:33be coming back up the flagpole at the moment. Whether it reaches the

0:43:33 > 0:43:38top of the flagpole Rob, I don't know.Would it be desirable?

0:43:38 > 0:43:42Wouldn't the accusation be from those in favour of Brexit, you do

0:43:42 > 0:43:46not like the results you are having another go? And if the British

0:43:46 > 0:43:53public decided to reject whatever was on offer, what happens then?

0:43:53 > 0:43:57If the British public rejected the deal, we would stay in the European

0:43:57 > 0:44:07Union. Presumably. I would say, yes, some people would say that your

0:44:07 > 0:44:12playing for a replay. A bad loser. My answer to that would be, what

0:44:12 > 0:44:16about the promises that were made? What about what the levers were

0:44:16 > 0:44:21saying, the battle bus, or that stuff? More important, what about

0:44:21 > 0:44:29the long-term future? When you look at the way young people, here we are

0:44:29 > 0:44:34at a university, young people here actually do not want to be separated

0:44:34 > 0:44:44from continental Europe. So over time, it seems to me tomography will

0:44:44 > 0:44:47come in behind democracy. -- demography.

0:44:47 > 0:44:49"You won't have an NHS" unless politicians work together

0:44:49 > 0:44:52to find a better way of financing it, that's the message

0:44:52 > 0:44:53from the Royal College of Nursing.

0:44:53 > 0:44:55Welsh Conservatives say they have figures which show

0:44:55 > 0:44:57more nurses are leaving the profession than joining.

0:44:57 > 0:45:05Eleanor Gruffydd Jones reports.

0:45:07 > 0:45:11This woman spent nearly 40 years on the front line as a nurse. It is a

0:45:11 > 0:45:15job she loved. Working in hospitals all over South Wales. Her career

0:45:15 > 0:45:20took her from emergency care to minor injuries. But when the chance

0:45:20 > 0:45:25came up to retire, she was ready to go.It is the workload and I think

0:45:25 > 0:45:29that an awful lot of nurses are feeling that at the moment. It is

0:45:29 > 0:45:35the continuous... You have to get these patients seen, why are you

0:45:35 > 0:45:41going over that time, why haven't you done this, why haven't you done

0:45:41 > 0:45:46that?Around 1450 nurses in Wales left the profession last year. That

0:45:46 > 0:45:51is according to the Royal College of Nursing and the nursing and

0:45:51 > 0:45:54midwifery Council. Although this is down to win above reasons including

0:45:54 > 0:45:59job change and retirement as usual, the main nursing union says this

0:45:59 > 0:46:01story is a common one. We know that there has been

0:46:01 > 0:46:07unrelenting pressure across the whole of the UK. And we are

0:46:07 > 0:46:12experiencing that in Wales. In the primary sector, nursing staff have a

0:46:12 > 0:46:16duty of care and when you cannot provide that duty of care because

0:46:16 > 0:46:21the resources are not there, either financially or the infrastructure

0:46:21 > 0:46:26support, safe discharge home, that is constantly reducing morale.She

0:46:26 > 0:46:30also said it is a more deep-seated problem of a continuing lack of

0:46:30 > 0:46:36resources. We have got to have absolute way of

0:46:36 > 0:46:40determining determining how the NHS across Wales is funded because

0:46:40 > 0:46:42without that there will be insufficient resources to meet

0:46:42 > 0:46:47demand and the NHS will not continue to exist.

0:46:47 > 0:46:50The Welsh Conservatives have obtained figures under the Freedom

0:46:50 > 0:46:55of Information Act which they say show that six out of Wales' seven

0:46:55 > 0:47:00health boards aren't replacing staff at the rate that others leave.They

0:47:00 > 0:47:05sadly show that more nurses are leaving the NHS, 1000 have left the

0:47:05 > 0:47:07NHS in Wales against the people who have been recruited, and we know

0:47:07 > 0:47:12there is increasing demand. How credible are these figures,

0:47:12 > 0:47:15considering they have been cultivated in different ways by the

0:47:15 > 0:47:17health boards? These figures have come from the

0:47:17 > 0:47:25health boards in Wales. If you work it all through, there is

0:47:25 > 0:47:281000 less nurses now working in the NHS because they haven't been

0:47:28 > 0:47:32replacing the nurses that have left. That is deeply worrying, considering

0:47:32 > 0:47:36the Welsh Labour government have been rather lax in their recruitment

0:47:36 > 0:47:40campaigns, that shows we are not putting the stuff on the front line

0:47:40 > 0:47:43to meet demand.The Welsh Government says there are more registered

0:47:43 > 0:47:47nurses working in the NHS than ever before with training places set to

0:47:47 > 0:47:53increase by 10% this year. Ministers say they are investing millions in

0:47:53 > 0:47:54supporting staff. The Health Secretary address the

0:47:54 > 0:47:58issue earlier this week. This continued investment during the past

0:47:58 > 0:48:01five years means there has been a sustained increase in training

0:48:01 > 0:48:05places in Wales. This includes over that time 68% more nurses in

0:48:05 > 0:48:11training, health visitor training numbers have more than doubled. An

0:48:11 > 0:48:19increase in midwifery 42%. 51% in occupational training places.53% in

0:48:19 > 0:48:24physiotherapy training places. Tina Donnelly says there is no more

0:48:24 > 0:48:28time for criticising and cooperation between political parties and across

0:48:28 > 0:48:33borders is now badly needed.I would expect the whole of the political

0:48:33 > 0:48:38parties to come together collectively as a UK and say the NHS

0:48:38 > 0:48:43is an important part of our social infrastructure. We have got to have

0:48:43 > 0:48:47a better way of financing it. We have got to have a way of making

0:48:47 > 0:48:51sure that the staff that work in it are not put under relentless

0:48:51 > 0:48:55pressure so that they leave because at the end of the day, the system

0:48:55 > 0:49:00will have failed and you won't have a national health service.

0:49:00 > 0:49:07Much as I love being a nurse, and I am proud of the fact that I was a

0:49:07 > 0:49:13nurse and I always will be a nurse, I will always be proud of that fact,

0:49:13 > 0:49:16I just can't do it any more.

0:49:16 > 0:49:19Now, the question of respect and dignity has never been nearer

0:49:19 > 0:49:21the top of the political agenda on a UK level.

0:49:21 > 0:49:22But what about here in Wales?

0:49:22 > 0:49:26The First Minister says he wants to bring in laws to make the country

0:49:26 > 0:49:28the safest place to be a woman in Europe.

0:49:28 > 0:49:30But will it ever happen, and how would it work?

0:49:30 > 0:49:33Cerys Furlong is the boss of Chwarae Teg and Catherine Fookes

0:49:33 > 0:49:41is in charge of the Women's Equality Network.

0:49:41 > 0:49:48Thank you very much for coming in. How far are we from that aim from

0:49:48 > 0:49:52the First Minister of being the safest place in Europe to be a

0:49:52 > 0:49:56woman?I think we are making good progress in Wales. We have the

0:49:56 > 0:49:59legislation that was ground-breaking but I do think there are certainly

0:49:59 > 0:50:03areas of improvement that can be made. I think firstly domestic

0:50:03 > 0:50:12violence organisations really need is to have sustainable long-term

0:50:12 > 0:50:16ring fenced funding for women's refuges. Secondly I think we could

0:50:16 > 0:50:21do with some really bold targets for gender parity in the assembly. We

0:50:21 > 0:50:24have had a 50-50 assembly before and I think we really need that again.

0:50:24 > 0:50:29That will help us move forward with the culture change we need in

0:50:29 > 0:50:35politics. In the past, we have had gender

0:50:35 > 0:50:41parity in the assembly, in terms of men and women, but when it comes to

0:50:41 > 0:50:46how to achieve that again in the future, what are you talking about,

0:50:46 > 0:50:51quotas?Yes, I am talking about quotas. The expert panel led by

0:50:51 > 0:50:54Laura McAllister made three excellent recommendations that would

0:50:54 > 0:50:58go a long way to getting us to gender parity. That is quotas,

0:50:58 > 0:51:08political parties publishing candidate data, and it is also about

0:51:08 > 0:51:10looking at the job of an Assembly Member itself and looking at job

0:51:10 > 0:51:14sharing. I would like to see the First Minister committing to some of

0:51:14 > 0:51:16these things and getting all political parties behind those

0:51:16 > 0:51:22recommendations. When Carwyn Jones made his speech on

0:51:22 > 0:51:26Thursday evening, outlining what he wants to see and the steps that need

0:51:26 > 0:51:31to be taken to make Wales the state that -- safest place in Europe to be

0:51:31 > 0:51:34a woman coming he mentioned your organisation as being part of a

0:51:34 > 0:51:37review looking into that, so what are the steps that need to be taken

0:51:37 > 0:51:43now that you think?Obviously we are pleased to see the comments from the

0:51:43 > 0:51:48First Minister this week and I think it is something we need to focus now

0:51:48 > 0:51:52on, the actions, not just the words. In the past, people would have

0:51:52 > 0:51:59talked in broad terms not committing to gender equality. So I think it is

0:51:59 > 0:52:04time to think about how we tackle misogyny and culture in Wales and

0:52:04 > 0:52:09across the UK. How we look at things like the gender pay gap and how we

0:52:09 > 0:52:11think about equality legislation, all the excellent points that have

0:52:11 > 0:52:17been made. It is really a positive approach now, time is needed for

0:52:17 > 0:52:22that, but to focus on those big things and I think over the last

0:52:22 > 0:52:24several months, we have talked about sexual harassment and codes of

0:52:24 > 0:52:30conduct and that is part of it but it is not the whole issue.We said

0:52:30 > 0:52:34before we came on air that Sweden is held as being one of the best places

0:52:34 > 0:52:39in the world. I guess what the First Minister is saying is we need to

0:52:39 > 0:52:44match the best the world when it comes to this. How far away, how

0:52:44 > 0:52:50much of a step change is needed?It is a significant step change. The

0:52:50 > 0:52:53First Minister in his speech also talked about Lady Rhondda and what

0:52:53 > 0:53:01she was campaigning for in 1921, childcare, accessed for jobs for

0:53:01 > 0:53:07women, we are making the same points now, generations later. It needs a

0:53:07 > 0:53:11significant shift and we welcome the comments.One of the things

0:53:11 > 0:53:15mentioned there was sexual harassment in politics and we know

0:53:15 > 0:53:19that at the top of the agenda on a UK wide level and maybe in Wales

0:53:19 > 0:53:23there are obviously sensitivities there but what needs to change

0:53:23 > 0:53:28therein terms of how sexual harassment is dealt with in the

0:53:28 > 0:53:32assembly for example?It is interesting first of all that in 20

0:53:32 > 0:53:36years, there has not been one complaint made to the Standards

0:53:36 > 0:53:39Commissioner.It is interesting but what does that show?Maybe people

0:53:39 > 0:53:44don't understand what the processes and they don't know where to go to

0:53:44 > 0:53:47make a complaint. The dignity and respect statements so far, we are

0:53:47 > 0:53:51moving slowly, I would like a stomach would remove much more

0:53:51 > 0:53:57quickly. We need to make sure the person handling those complaint has

0:53:57 > 0:54:02real experience in the field. They need expertise. At the moment, there

0:54:02 > 0:54:07is only a 12 month kind of period within which you are supposed to

0:54:07 > 0:54:11complain. And what happens if the complaint happened a long time ago?

0:54:11 > 0:54:15Sometimes it takes women a long time to have the confidence to come

0:54:15 > 0:54:20forward. I think we need to look at that as well.When you said the

0:54:20 > 0:54:24person holding the job, there is a Standards Commissioner, a former

0:54:24 > 0:54:27High Court judge, presumably you are saying that he doesn't necessarily

0:54:27 > 0:54:30have the experience necessary to deal with the kind of cases that

0:54:30 > 0:54:35might come before him?Absolutely and someone needs to be trained in

0:54:35 > 0:54:40order to deal with... With a woman feel confident going to him and

0:54:40 > 0:54:44explaining the problem is that they have had and so I think it is really

0:54:44 > 0:54:49important that you have possibly a woman in that... Not necessarily in

0:54:49 > 0:54:52his role, I am not try to do him out of a job but you need women involved

0:54:52 > 0:54:56will have had experience of dealing with these kind of cases before and

0:54:56 > 0:55:00can support the women making the complaint is going forward or indeed

0:55:00 > 0:55:04men, if there are complaints from men.One of the things the Standards

0:55:04 > 0:55:07Commissioner is doing at the moment is scrutinising the policies of the

0:55:07 > 0:55:10political parties when it comes to reporting sexual harassment and so

0:55:10 > 0:55:15on. We have a ministerial code. There is a party code and assembly

0:55:15 > 0:55:20code. Are all these different colds necessarily tied in together? Is

0:55:20 > 0:55:26there a confusion residing from that?There definitely is confusion

0:55:26 > 0:55:28and we can overcomplicate this but we are talking about what is

0:55:28 > 0:55:33appropriate behaviour and conduct. And I think we all know what that

0:55:33 > 0:55:36looks like and so we should be able to bring those together and some

0:55:36 > 0:55:43simple and transparent policies and I were saying before we came on air

0:55:43 > 0:55:46that I did a bit of research yesterday and how would you go about

0:55:46 > 0:55:53making a complaint, it is horrendously combat. If you look at

0:55:53 > 0:55:57the stuff on the website and the options you have to go through, we

0:55:57 > 0:56:02are putting significant barriers in the way of people who even go to

0:56:02 > 0:56:05make that first step into making a complaint. There is a lot we can do

0:56:05 > 0:56:09to improve from where we are now. Clearly there is a problem about the

0:56:09 > 0:56:19initial step. If it is proof that an Assembly Member has acted

0:56:19 > 0:56:23inappropriately, are the penalty is strong enough at the moment?At the

0:56:23 > 0:56:25moment, it is not clear what those would be and I have not seen any

0:56:25 > 0:56:28evidence of what those would be. They need to be detailed and

0:56:28 > 0:56:32absolutely it needs to be very clear what the sanctions are. I think it

0:56:32 > 0:56:36is absolutely vital that as a member of the public, you don't care...

0:56:36 > 0:56:41Someone working in the assembly, you do not care if it is a ministerial

0:56:41 > 0:56:47code or Assembly Member called, they should be exactly the same. And the

0:56:47 > 0:56:50important thing is people knowing what number to ring, who did get in

0:56:50 > 0:56:58touch with and know which cold this particular person has broken.

0:57:01 > 0:57:09Howard using procurement powers work?It is about making sure that

0:57:09 > 0:57:13they are held to a higher standard. This is about the assembly showing

0:57:13 > 0:57:15real leadership on the issue of equality because it can and because

0:57:15 > 0:57:23it should. I think that is perfectly reasonable. We already use our

0:57:23 > 0:57:27procurement powers in Wales to ensure that organisations in Wales

0:57:27 > 0:57:31pay the minimum wage, the living wage, it is the same kind of process

0:57:31 > 0:57:35and it is about that kind of leadership that we need to push on.

0:57:35 > 0:57:40We have mentioned a lot here about how politics can be made safer for

0:57:40 > 0:57:43women here. Does that then trickle down to the general population or

0:57:43 > 0:57:46are there different plans and procedures that need to be put in

0:57:46 > 0:57:52place?Absolutely. I think it all starts with education in schools. We

0:57:52 > 0:58:00really need a real focus on children in schools getting teaching or

0:58:00 > 0:58:03workshops or understanding about what a healthy relationship is and I

0:58:03 > 0:58:09think we also have a real problem in schools of unconscious bias and we

0:58:09 > 0:58:16need teachers to call out sexism when they see it. For example. And

0:58:16 > 0:58:20not unconsciously say things like you girls are sitting over there

0:58:20 > 0:58:23quietly, you are a great role model. If you do that to girls in primary

0:58:23 > 0:58:27school, they will think later on in life the best thing to do is to sit

0:58:27 > 0:58:31there quietly and not speak out. We need to remove some of those

0:58:31 > 0:58:40barriers from a really early age. There needs to be action across the

0:58:40 > 0:58:43board. The media is another key place to start and I think we are

0:58:43 > 0:58:47starting to see that shift. But every organisation needs to be

0:58:47 > 0:58:50looking at itself and saying, what do we need to do to hold ourselves

0:58:50 > 0:58:55up to a higher state of standards than we have until now? We do not

0:58:55 > 0:58:59want to be having this conversation again in another eight years' time

0:58:59 > 0:59:05that Lady Rhondda was having in 1921.When we are looking at where

0:59:05 > 0:59:08we want to be and where we are now, how long will that take, do you

0:59:08 > 0:59:15think?They say that if the current progress on the gender pay gap, we

0:59:15 > 0:59:19will still have one of 40% in 100 years and we do not want to be

0:59:19 > 0:59:23there. I welcome the First Minister 's comments but we really need

0:59:23 > 0:59:25action.A brilliant place to finish it.

0:59:25 > 0:59:26That's it from me!

0:59:26 > 0:59:28Don't forget Wales Live will be here on Wedneday night,

0:59:28 > 0:59:30after the news at 10.30.

0:59:30 > 0:59:32But for now that's all from me.

0:59:32 > 0:59:33Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching.

0:59:33 > 0:59:37Time to go back to Sarah.

0:59:37 > 0:59:38That's all we have time for.

0:59:38 > 0:59:41My thanks to Susan Kramer, Siobhan McDonagh and to Bob Blackman.

0:59:41 > 0:59:43And with that it's back to Sarah.

0:59:43 > 0:59:44Welcome back.

0:59:44 > 0:59:46The Chancellor's been out and about this morning,

0:59:46 > 0:59:48setting out his stall ahead of the Spring Statement on Tuesday.

0:59:48 > 0:59:50Here's what he told Andrew Marr.

0:59:50 > 0:59:53There is light at the end of the tunnel because what we are

0:59:53 > 0:59:58about to see is debt starting to fall after it's been growing

0:59:58 > 1:00:00for 17 continuous years.

1:00:00 > 1:00:02That's a very important moment for us, but we are still

1:00:02 > 1:00:04in the tunnel at the moment.

1:00:04 > 1:00:08We have to get debt down.

1:00:08 > 1:00:10We have got all sorts of other things we want to do.

1:00:10 > 1:00:13We've taken a balanced approach over the last couple of fiscal events.

1:00:13 > 1:00:19Using flexibility that we had to continue paying down debt,

1:00:19 > 1:00:22but also to provide additional support to our public services,

1:00:22 > 1:00:25to invest in Britain's future and to reduce taxes for families

1:00:25 > 1:00:29and small businesses who are feeling the pressure.

1:00:29 > 1:00:32Also appearing on the Andrew Marr programme, the Shadow Chancellor

1:00:32 > 1:00:34John McDonnell called on the government to end

1:00:34 > 1:00:41its austerity programme.

1:00:41 > 1:00:45One thing he has done is he has shifted the deficit onto the

1:00:45 > 1:00:49shoulders of NHS managers, onto shoulders of head teachers, and onto

1:00:49 > 1:00:54the shoulders of local government leaders and these Conservative

1:00:54 > 1:01:01council leaders now are saying that they are facing a financial crisis

1:01:01 > 1:01:06because the government have had cutbacks. This is not a matter of

1:01:06 > 1:01:11celebration. I think he should come into the real world because the

1:01:11 > 1:01:14resolution foundation said in their report today, 11 million people now,

1:01:14 > 1:01:18not just the poorest but those just about managing, will be hit next

1:01:18 > 1:01:22month by the cuts in support they get to the benefit system, so this

1:01:22 > 1:01:27is not a matter for celebration by any means.To unpick what we can

1:01:27 > 1:01:30expect in the spring statement and other stories next week, the panel

1:01:30 > 1:01:35are still with me. We had the Chancellor saying there is light at

1:01:35 > 1:01:40the end of the tunnel. How much pressure does is put on him from his

1:01:40 > 1:01:43own side let alone from the opposition to spend some more money?

1:01:43 > 1:01:46There's an interesting split in the Conservatives, those who say now we

1:01:46 > 1:01:49have a lemonade of the current budget deficit on day-to-day

1:01:49 > 1:01:52spending, we should take a chance to invest heavily in infrastructure to

1:01:52 > 1:02:02give the NHS more money, to spend money on schools, and then you have

1:02:02 > 1:02:07the fiscal conservatives like Philip Hammond to say actually debt is

1:02:07 > 1:02:13still 84% of GDP, we have got to start delivering overall surplus is

1:02:13 > 1:02:16not borrowing money to get it down because we face economic economic

1:02:16 > 1:02:21risks from Brexit. We know Philip Hammond does not look optimistically

1:02:21 > 1:02:24at that. And an ageing population on those pressures, so when things

1:02:24 > 1:02:30start to seem as if they are improving, you can't reduce the

1:02:30 > 1:02:36momentum.It was interesting early on the programme, talking to Sam

1:02:36 > 1:02:41Gyimah, he said students thought austerity was the ideological

1:02:41 > 1:02:46position of the Conservative Party, not a practical necessity. So if now

1:02:46 > 1:02:50we are reaching a point where there is potentially more money to spend,

1:02:50 > 1:02:57politically would be wise?It is because if the Conservatives failed

1:02:57 > 1:03:01to establish this narrative which they have been trying to form long

1:03:01 > 1:03:04time, under Theresa May they have abandoned it, this idea that living

1:03:04 > 1:03:11within 1's means as a country is an end to itself, I'm not sure what

1:03:11 > 1:03:15will separate them from the Labour ideology. If they absolutely abandon

1:03:15 > 1:03:19the point they have to be careful about how they spend their money,

1:03:19 > 1:03:24they could pledge 10 billion to one sector, and the Labour Party will

1:03:24 > 1:03:32pledge 100. If they cannot make that case it is responsible to be

1:03:32 > 1:03:35spending money responsibly because otherwise if you don't pay off your

1:03:35 > 1:03:40debt, it will mean higher taxes on future generations, these students

1:03:40 > 1:03:43and their children have lost that political argument already.The

1:03:43 > 1:03:47defining political argument of this premiership of Theresa May for the

1:03:47 > 1:03:52many and not for the few, are the fiscal messages we are hearing from

1:03:52 > 1:03:56the Chancellor, do they relate to that?Not in the slightest. You

1:03:56 > 1:04:03heard on the Andrew Marr programme, giving a receptacle slap in the

1:04:03 > 1:04:11face, the author of the just about managing speech, Mick Timothy is

1:04:11 > 1:04:15going to try to beat up the Chancellor on behalf of the Prime

1:04:15 > 1:04:20Minister's behalf, so those tensions will remain. I think the Chancellor

1:04:20 > 1:04:23is even more anal-retentive on the purse strings at the moment simply

1:04:23 > 1:04:28because of the government, the Tories don't have a majority. That

1:04:28 > 1:04:34means any single minority interest who can scrape together ten or 12

1:04:34 > 1:04:38Tory MPs, you can force the government to do a U-turn and they

1:04:38 > 1:04:44are piling up from defence spending, a strong Tory bid coming down the

1:04:44 > 1:04:54line on Universal Credit, putting back 3 billion into it. IDS, the

1:04:54 > 1:04:59socially conservative touchy-feely end of the party, to the NHS,

1:04:59 > 1:05:02tuition fees, every single one of those minority interests will want

1:05:02 > 1:05:08some sort of salvation. Now the Chancellor announces bigger that £10

1:05:08 > 1:05:13million -- £10 billion a year more yet to play with.Now usually at

1:05:13 > 1:05:20this point we are talking about the word Brexit and it does not come up

1:05:20 > 1:05:27yet and we can't

1:05:27 > 1:05:33yet and we can't ignore it it has been a big Brexit week.Yes, we've

1:05:33 > 1:05:40heard Philip Hammond tell us financial services will have to form

1:05:40 > 1:05:44the ultimate deal we get from the EU, and we've also heard the EU's

1:05:44 > 1:05:51guidelines. They are, unsurprisingly, taking a hard line.

1:05:51 > 1:05:58Those two things have happened. Another interesting thing, there was

1:05:58 > 1:06:12an interesting appointment that happened in the EU last

1:06:12 > 1:06:14happened in the EU last week, Jean-Claude Juncker's write man

1:06:14 > 1:06:18became secretary-general of the commission. There is a lot of

1:06:18 > 1:06:24disquiet amongst the MPs about this from across the European Union, but

1:06:24 > 1:06:29also political divides within the EU, and tomorrow they are demanding

1:06:29 > 1:06:33some answers in the European Parliament about this particular

1:06:33 > 1:06:36appointment and we, the Brexit nerds, we'll look at it very

1:06:36 > 1:06:39carefully. It raises some interesting questions and

1:06:39 > 1:06:45transparency and accountability within the European framework.The

1:06:45 > 1:06:48international trade Secretary Liam Fox is off to Washington at the very

1:06:48 > 1:06:53time the US president is threatening tariffs on steel and aluminium and

1:06:53 > 1:06:57it's an interesting one for British government because Trump has said

1:06:57 > 1:07:00allies can come and make their case to be exempted from this and Canada

1:07:00 > 1:07:05and Mexico have been, but we should not be going separately as the UK

1:07:05 > 1:07:08because we are part of the European Union at the moment, but if we can

1:07:08 > 1:07:13cut a deal, how would that go down in Brussels?Conservatives like Liam

1:07:13 > 1:07:19Fox said for years once we are outside the EU the advantages is we

1:07:19 > 1:07:24can get beneficial trade deals with major economies like the USA, and

1:07:24 > 1:07:28now he has the chance to test Donald Trump's words, so there's been lots

1:07:28 > 1:07:33of rhetoric about Donald Trump about you guys will get a big trade deal,

1:07:33 > 1:07:37but in reality he's always been a protectionist on trade. Will you

1:07:37 > 1:07:42make an exception for Britain? Does he think we are a significant and

1:07:42 > 1:07:46economy to make that case? If Liam Fox could get something, it would be

1:07:46 > 1:07:52a win for the Brexiteers. The government postponed the boat on a

1:07:52 > 1:07:54customs union because they were worried about losing it on the floor

1:07:54 > 1:07:57of the Commons after the Labour shift full support they can get a

1:07:57 > 1:08:01concession, it would help.A potential windfall Liam Fox but

1:08:01 > 1:08:05fraught with danger. If he gets a deal, the EU will be furious and

1:08:05 > 1:08:08that could affect the Brexit negotiations. If he doesn't come it

1:08:08 > 1:08:13will be rather embarrassing.He can't get a deal until 2021, an

1:08:13 > 1:08:22awful long time away. We remain within the EU's tariffs regime until

1:08:22 > 1:08:302021 because that is what we wanted. New Year's Eve 2020. There ain't a

1:08:30 > 1:08:33huge amount the government can do. If the government could broker a

1:08:33 > 1:08:41deal, there's talk of doing this, not country by country, but the Port

1:08:41 > 1:08:47Talbot manufacturers, high-density steel used to warships, he could try

1:08:47 > 1:08:50to broker some sort of exemption with that, but it will interview

1:08:50 > 1:08:57read the EU and give us an

1:08:58 > 1:09:00read the EU and give us an even worse deal. I don't think Liam Fox

1:09:00 > 1:09:04I'm afraid we'll win this debate. The big story with the Labour Party

1:09:04 > 1:09:10the moment of course is the election for their new general secretary. The

1:09:10 > 1:09:13founder of momentum standing against Jennie Formby from Unite. This is

1:09:13 > 1:09:16not the left and right battle we have been used within the Labour

1:09:16 > 1:09:19Party the two very strong significance figures from the left

1:09:19 > 1:09:23of the party battling it out to take over general secretary. Does it

1:09:23 > 1:09:27matter which one of them wins and how this proceeds for the Labour

1:09:27 > 1:09:31Party?It matters because you have two rival conceptions about the

1:09:31 > 1:09:37Labour Party should be. The view of momentum is you need more power is

1:09:37 > 1:09:41transferred to members giving members greater influence over

1:09:41 > 1:09:46policy and the trade unions still have half of the boat on Labour

1:09:46 > 1:09:49Party policy which act as a block and gives the general secretary huge

1:09:49 > 1:09:55power and then you have the Labour Party founded by the trade unions,

1:09:55 > 1:09:57we are nothing without the trade unions, of course they have to be at

1:09:57 > 1:10:02the centre of the Labour Party and therefore it is entirely appropriate

1:10:02 > 1:10:05Jennie Formby should become the new party general secretary, but this is

1:10:05 > 1:10:08a fascinating element and the left have defeated all of the internal

1:10:08 > 1:10:13opponents and it is now the split within the new party establishment

1:10:13 > 1:10:17that is playing out and some will draw comparisons with the Blairites

1:10:17 > 1:10:22and Brown Knights of the past. The two rival visions of what Corbin is

1:10:22 > 1:10:26should mean for Labour.With policy and vocations? Will make a

1:10:26 > 1:10:31difference to the of the Labour Party or is it about who it is?

1:10:31 > 1:10:36Small policy implications. Momentum are about as far left as you can

1:10:36 > 1:10:43possibly get at the moment in terms of selling up nationalisation is.

1:10:43 > 1:10:50Len McCluskey, unite, not perhaps quite as hard left as momentum. I

1:10:50 > 1:10:57think it is more the culture who runs the party, who has controls and

1:10:57 > 1:11:01what's fascinating is watching the Labour moderates this week. There's

1:11:01 > 1:11:08a few of them around. One of them described it as predator versus

1:11:08 > 1:11:14alien for the two terrible enemies eating each other as the revolution

1:11:14 > 1:11:16always eats its children will be a great battle my feeling is the union

1:11:16 > 1:11:20will win it. They have the muscle and bigger numbers than momentum at

1:11:20 > 1:11:25the moment.Labour moderates, it's been suggested Harriet Harman could

1:11:25 > 1:11:29be interested in being the next Speaker of the House of Commons. The

1:11:29 > 1:11:32second ever female speaker of course, but John Bercow has been

1:11:32 > 1:11:36there for a long time although there are allegations about bullying in

1:11:36 > 1:11:40his office which have resurfaced this week. Is there an opportunity

1:11:40 > 1:11:47do you think?Yes, would be interesting is how these bullying

1:11:47 > 1:11:51allegations, which are only allegations at this stage, play out.

1:11:51 > 1:11:54It's been talked about quite a lot and we have talked about this in the

1:11:54 > 1:11:59Green room actually, when John Bercow to go but he set himself a

1:11:59 > 1:12:02limit, coming to an end, the middle of this year. Does that mean he's

1:12:02 > 1:12:08now leaving his job? I think he has immensely enjoyed it but the MPs

1:12:08 > 1:12:14perhaps not so much on both sides. It will be interesting to see how

1:12:14 > 1:12:17that happens. And if it would be Harriet Harman, how the Tory MPs are

1:12:17 > 1:12:23going to react to her taking on as well?The Tory MPs don't like John

1:12:23 > 1:12:32Bercow.They don't like John Bercow or Harriet Harman but for her to

1:12:32 > 1:12:35become the speaker would be significant. Both culturally and

1:12:35 > 1:12:39politically. She's done more than any other MP to advance women's

1:12:39 > 1:12:42rights and you can see why, with such concern about the harassment

1:12:42 > 1:12:48allegations and bullying now at Westminster, for Harriet Harman to

1:12:48 > 1:12:53become the speaker would be a very important development for the its

1:12:53 > 1:12:57Labour MPs actually who have propped up John Bercow. He lost the

1:12:57 > 1:13:00confidence of his own side and if they start to turn on him his days

1:13:00 > 1:13:07could be numbered.Very briefly, Harriet Harman? Can you see it?Yes

1:13:07 > 1:13:10because John Bercow has about ten Tory MP mates, plus the entire

1:13:10 > 1:13:14Labour vote and will always win unless the Tories can find someone

1:13:14 > 1:13:17they liked even more than John Bercow and there aren't that many

1:13:17 > 1:13:22more public people in the party than Harriet Harman.Thank you all for

1:13:22 > 1:13:24coming in.

1:13:24 > 1:13:26Join me again next Sunday at 11 here on BBC One.

1:13:26 > 1:13:33Until then, bye bye.