:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:01. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:10. > :01:15.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election
:01:16. > :01:20.In the Midlands, transformational project or employed on the
:01:21. > :01:41.environment? I will talk to the With me, the best and brightest
:01:42. > :01:43.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and
:01:44. > :01:48.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development
:01:49. > :01:49.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:50. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:02:00. > :02:02.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:03. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:08. > :02:10.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:11. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:16. > :02:21.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:22. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:33. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:38. > :02:40.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:41. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:46. > :02:53.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:54. > :02:58.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:59. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:01. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:11. > :03:14.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:15. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:20. > :03:22.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:23. > :03:29.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:30. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:59. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:03. > :04:07.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:08. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:12. > :04:14.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:15. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:21. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:25. > :04:31.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have
:04:32. > :04:33.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite
:04:34. > :04:39.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know
:04:40. > :04:45.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried
:04:46. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care
:04:52. > :04:57.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.
:04:58. > :05:00.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the
:05:01. > :05:05.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the
:05:06. > :05:08.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would
:05:09. > :05:11.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that
:05:12. > :05:16.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls
:05:17. > :05:22.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for
:05:23. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:28. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:31. > :05:33.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:34. > :05:39.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:40. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:47. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:50. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:55. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:05:59. > :06:01.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:02. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:07. > :06:09.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:10. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:14. > :06:18.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:19. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:24. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:28. > :06:30.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:31. > :06:35.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:36. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:49. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:53. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:58. > :07:05.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:06. > :07:13.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:14. > :07:18.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:19. > :07:20.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:21. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:25. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:29. > :07:31.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:32. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:38. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:41. > :07:44.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:45. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:48. > :07:54.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:55. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:00. > :08:04.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:05. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:12. > :08:14.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:15. > :08:20.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:21. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:27. > :08:29.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:30. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:35. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:39. > :08:43.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:44. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:50. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:03. > :09:06.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:07. > :09:10.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:11. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:20. > :09:21.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:22. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:34. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:41. > :09:44.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:45. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:51. > :09:53.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily
:09:54. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:06. > :10:09.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:10. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:14. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:21. > :10:27.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:28. > :10:31.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:32. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I
:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:59. > :11:02.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:03. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:07. > :11:10.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all
:11:11. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:16. > :11:19.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:20. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:23. > :11:25.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:26. > :11:29.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:30. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:37. > :11:39.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:40. > :11:42.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:43. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:48. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:53. > :11:57.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:58. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:04. > :12:10.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:11. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members
:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:27. > :12:31.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:32. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:37. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:41. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:44. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:48. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of
:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling
:13:11. > :13:17.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It
:13:18. > :13:21.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us
:13:22. > :13:25.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's
:13:26. > :13:32.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having
:13:33. > :13:37.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is
:13:38. > :13:40.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said
:13:41. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in
:13:46. > :13:49.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth
:13:50. > :13:53.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting
:13:54. > :13:58.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy
:13:59. > :14:02.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?
:14:03. > :14:08.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:09. > :14:12.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:13. > :14:16.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:17. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:25. > :14:28.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they
:14:29. > :14:32.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:33. > :14:36.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and
:14:37. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:40. > :14:44.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:45. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:49. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:55. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:03. > :15:13.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:14. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:19. > :15:24.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:25. > :15:27.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:28. > :15:34.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:35. > :15:39.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:40. > :15:45.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a
:15:46. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:55. > :16:00.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:01. > :16:05.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:06. > :16:21.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:22. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:38. > :16:41.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:42. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:47. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:17:00. > :17:06.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:07. > :17:12.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:13. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:24. > :17:29.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:30. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:52. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:57. > :18:04.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is
:18:05. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:16. > :18:19.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:20. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:25. > :18:28.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London
:18:29. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices
:18:33. > :18:36.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially
:18:37. > :18:43.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the
:18:44. > :18:52.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed
:18:53. > :19:06.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal
:19:07. > :19:11.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and
:19:12. > :19:17.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want
:19:18. > :19:25.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of
:19:26. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%
:19:35. > :19:39.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of
:19:40. > :19:45.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a
:19:46. > :19:49.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be
:19:50. > :19:55.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to
:19:56. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we
:20:02. > :20:08.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were
:20:09. > :20:13.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where
:20:14. > :20:18.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be
:20:19. > :20:23.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the
:20:24. > :20:31.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT
:20:32. > :20:35.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got
:20:36. > :20:44.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the
:20:45. > :20:53.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we
:20:54. > :20:58.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you
:20:59. > :21:08.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You
:21:09. > :21:15.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you
:21:16. > :21:22.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and
:21:23. > :21:27.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are
:21:28. > :21:33.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the
:21:34. > :21:40.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as
:21:41. > :21:47.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the
:21:48. > :21:52.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not
:21:53. > :21:58.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to
:21:59. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:05. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:29. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:40. > :22:45.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:46. > :22:52.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:53. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:07. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:13. > :23:15.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:16. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:21. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:27. > :23:30.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:31. > :23:36.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:37. > :23:49.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:50. > :23:52.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:53. > :23:57.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:58. > :24:05.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:06. > :24:13.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:14. > :24:18.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:19. > :24:22.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:23. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:30. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:35. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:49. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:52. > :24:56.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:57. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:02. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:07. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:17. > :25:22.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for
:25:23. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:29. > :25:31.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:32. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:46. > :25:48.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:49. > :25:57.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:58. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:02. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:09. > :26:14.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:15. > :26:21.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:22. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:44. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:53. > :26:59.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:27:00. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:27:06. > :27:08.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of
:27:09. > :27:11.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of
:27:12. > :27:14.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on
:27:15. > :27:17.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come
:27:18. > :27:21.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the
:27:22. > :27:31.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all
:27:32. > :27:42.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a
:27:43. > :27:49.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?
:27:50. > :27:52.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard
:27:53. > :27:55.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP
:27:56. > :28:05.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.
:28:06. > :28:11.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have
:28:12. > :28:13.come second and increased their share of the vote quite
:28:14. > :28:16.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances
:28:17. > :28:19.in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest
:28:20. > :28:30.to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd
:28:31. > :28:39.told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I
:28:40. > :28:43.wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour
:28:44. > :28:50.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were
:28:51. > :28:54.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in
:28:55. > :28:57.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets
:28:58. > :29:00.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about
:29:01. > :29:04.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help
:29:05. > :29:09.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.
:29:10. > :29:15.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they
:29:16. > :29:18.could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP
:29:19. > :29:29.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about
:29:30. > :29:36.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy
:29:37. > :29:42.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many
:29:43. > :29:46.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do
:29:47. > :29:51.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters
:29:52. > :29:57.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:58. > :30:00.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:01. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:05. > :30:17.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:18. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:21. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:25. > :30:27.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:28. > :30:33.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:34. > :30:39.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:40. > :30:42.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the
:30:43. > :30:47.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may
:30:48. > :30:56.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over
:30:57. > :31:03.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had
:31:04. > :31:07.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a
:31:08. > :31:11.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious
:31:12. > :31:16.as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good
:31:17. > :31:20.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which
:31:21. > :31:26.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if
:31:27. > :31:31.it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP
:31:32. > :31:35.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He
:31:36. > :31:37.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You
:31:38. > :31:44.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky
:31:45. > :31:50.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very
:31:51. > :31:54.unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to
:31:55. > :32:04.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back
:32:05. > :32:09.to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular
:32:10. > :32:13.government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour
:32:14. > :32:16.compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out
:32:17. > :32:20.the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an
:32:21. > :32:26.efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people
:32:27. > :32:30.with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the
:32:31. > :32:34.increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in
:32:35. > :32:38.the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think
:32:39. > :32:44.by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour
:32:45. > :32:49.in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should
:32:50. > :32:53.discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look
:32:54. > :32:57.forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we
:32:58. > :33:04.have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change
:33:05. > :33:08.that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the
:33:09. > :33:13.north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are
:33:14. > :33:17.drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and
:33:18. > :33:21.they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want
:33:22. > :33:25.change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and
:33:26. > :33:31.they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have
:33:32. > :33:35.seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to
:33:36. > :33:39.get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the
:33:40. > :33:49.renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's
:33:50. > :33:54.get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in
:33:55. > :33:58.22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what
:33:59. > :34:02.motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum
:34:03. > :34:05.on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative
:34:06. > :34:09.government at the next election And you could well stop that from
:34:10. > :34:14.happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David
:34:15. > :34:17.Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making
:34:18. > :34:20.before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs
:34:21. > :34:24.asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because
:34:25. > :34:28.he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that
:34:29. > :34:31.pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can
:34:32. > :34:36.force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge.
:34:37. > :34:42.Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a
:34:43. > :34:46.referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a
:34:47. > :34:51.referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a
:34:52. > :34:55.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in
:34:56. > :34:58.or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please
:34:59. > :35:04.UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver
:35:05. > :35:08.and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a
:35:09. > :35:14.pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you
:35:15. > :35:17.are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into
:35:18. > :35:23.the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still
:35:24. > :35:27.loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing
:35:28. > :35:33.David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay
:35:34. > :35:39.in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are
:35:40. > :35:43.going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to
:35:44. > :35:46.that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going
:35:47. > :35:50.to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending
:35:51. > :35:57.them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are
:35:58. > :36:01.concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters
:36:02. > :36:06.and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like
:36:07. > :36:10.immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship
:36:11. > :36:13.with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to
:36:14. > :36:17.negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is
:36:18. > :36:27.not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to
:36:28. > :36:32.defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there
:36:33. > :36:36.will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty
:36:37. > :36:42.change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do
:36:43. > :36:47.then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to
:36:48. > :36:54.agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these
:36:55. > :37:01.negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has
:37:02. > :37:05.been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and
:37:06. > :37:10.unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You
:37:11. > :37:14.would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in
:37:15. > :37:19.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.
:37:20. > :37:23.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers
:37:24. > :37:27.lucky enough to live in the East of have to move on. For those viewers
:37:28. > :37:30.England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are
:37:31. > :37:35.watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be
:37:36. > :37:36.talking about, what else, the weather,
:37:37. > :37:45.Hello once again from the Midlands. woman in charge of a test to.
:37:46. > :37:49.Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And from the
:37:50. > :37:54.realms of economic and business policy we are joined by a couple of
:37:55. > :37:58.our heaviest hitting heavy hitters. I am not sure if they will end up
:37:59. > :38:01.hitting each other or me for that matter. Sajid Javid is the
:38:02. > :38:03.Conservative MP for Bronzegrove in Worcestershire, he's the financial
:38:04. > :38:05.secretary to the Treasury. Pat McFadden, Labour MP for
:38:06. > :38:10.Wolverhampton Southeast was second`in`command of the Business
:38:11. > :38:14.Department under Lord Mandelson. Very good to have you both with us.
:38:15. > :38:19.We have heard some mixed messages about the state of our economy in
:38:20. > :38:22.the past few days. First came the CBI sounding bullish, we are
:38:23. > :38:28.enjoying "the right kind of growth", apparently. Take JLR, for example,
:38:29. > :38:32.where David Cameron helped them celebrate taking possession of their
:38:33. > :38:36.new engine plant in Wolverhampton. Their profits doubled to no less
:38:37. > :38:40.than ?842 million in the final three months of last year, sales were up
:38:41. > :38:47.by more than a quarter against the same period in the year before. Now
:38:48. > :38:50.comes the reality check from the Bank of England Governor, no less,
:38:51. > :38:53.Mark Carney warned that the recovery driven by higher household spending
:38:54. > :38:56.was neither balanced nor sustainable, so not the right kind
:38:57. > :39:04.of growth at all so far as he's concerned. Sajid, is this the
:39:05. > :39:07.economic equivalent of a sugar high? Consumer spending driving growth but
:39:08. > :39:14.important things like business investment, recovering a bit from
:39:15. > :39:19.very, very low levels. I don't think so. It is good to have a discussion
:39:20. > :39:22.about growth because what no one is debating is that the economy is
:39:23. > :39:27.growing and that growth seems to be getting stronger. It was always
:39:28. > :39:30.going to be very challenging for the country to get through Labour's
:39:31. > :39:35.great recession, the deepest in 100 years. I am glad to say that the
:39:36. > :39:39.economy is coming out of that. What you have referred to with the Bank
:39:40. > :39:42.of England and the CBI, both are welcome. The CBI news that
:39:43. > :39:46.rebalancing is happening in the economy, that is important. We were
:39:47. > :39:50.too dependent before on the banking system. It's good to see that, the
:39:51. > :39:53.JLR news is very good news about rebalancing. What Governor Carney is
:39:54. > :39:58.pointing out that there is a long way to go. The Bank of England also
:39:59. > :40:02.said that they expect growth to be 3.4% which is what some people have
:40:03. > :40:07.described as a bullish forecast. The important thing is that both can be
:40:08. > :40:10.right and we must not be complacent. We must keep working hard. And if
:40:11. > :40:14.this does start feeding through, however slowly, into wages, for
:40:15. > :40:18.example. Pat, then your argument about the cost of living crisis is
:40:19. > :40:22.goign to start weakening, isn't it? I hope people do start feeling it in
:40:23. > :40:27.their wages because they have been through a very tough time. The JLR
:40:28. > :40:31.story is fantastic, I visited the factory on Friday when the Prime
:40:32. > :40:35.Minister was there. This is a company that is doing very well.
:40:36. > :40:40.They are exporting 80% of their cars at the investment brings 1400 new
:40:41. > :40:43.jobs to Wolverhampton. That is just direct jobs. There will be more in
:40:44. > :40:48.the supply chain. I very much welcome what is happening there.
:40:49. > :40:52.Over the piece, the recovery as a whole does not quite have that
:40:53. > :40:56.shape. It is fuelled the award by house price rises. By consumer
:40:57. > :40:58.spending, by people using their savings to boost their consumer
:40:59. > :41:04.spending when their incomes aren't going up. The governor is keen to
:41:05. > :41:07.point out that even during the debt fuelled boom in the Labour years,
:41:08. > :41:12.productivity in the West Midlands was going down so it is actually
:41:13. > :41:15.quite a big thing to turn around. For the West Midlands something like
:41:16. > :41:19.JLR is fantastic but looking at the national picture, what I fear is
:41:20. > :41:22.that the recovery looks like a very British recovery, in other words,
:41:23. > :41:28.one fuelled by debt and house prices and we have been in that movie
:41:29. > :41:32.before. We were told this time it would be different but it looks like
:41:33. > :41:37.the kind of growth we had in the past. Paddy is right to say this is
:41:38. > :41:40.the growth we have in the past. We had it under Labour. Your household
:41:41. > :41:43.spending as a proportion of household income went from 70% to
:41:44. > :41:55.170%, it is now down to 140%. We must avoid the mistakes of the
:41:56. > :42:00.past. Still to come, with river levels rising and the political
:42:01. > :42:06.weather as stormy as the Jetstream, our leaders wage a war of words and
:42:07. > :42:12.numbers. We will question the effectiveness of those political
:42:13. > :42:18.damage limitation measures later on. Before that we are devoting most of
:42:19. > :42:21.our programme today to the planned ?42 billion high`speed rail link
:42:22. > :42:27.between the Midlands, London and the North. A transformational project,
:42:28. > :42:34.says David Cameron, a quite elephant Sea protesters in the shire
:42:35. > :42:38.counties. We will hear shortly from Alison Munro, the chief executive of
:42:39. > :42:44.HS2 Ltd, the company in charge of delivering it. First our reporter on
:42:45. > :42:50.the council is vying with one another for a place on the HS2 road
:42:51. > :42:53.map. It was once one of Stoke`on`Trent industrial
:42:54. > :43:02.powerhouses, thousands of people produce steel at Shelton bar in its
:43:03. > :43:11.heyday. 14 years after it closed this is all that is left. The hope
:43:12. > :43:16.now is that HS2 can fill the gap. The derelict land would be home to
:43:17. > :43:20.international arrivals, with high`speed trains travelling to
:43:21. > :43:23.London in less than one hour. Unlike councils in other areas the city
:43:24. > :43:29.council here is fighting for high`speed rail. This will actually
:43:30. > :43:34.make Stoke`on`Trent decor city, the amount of growth that will happen is
:43:35. > :43:38.unimaginable. And actually, the amount of contribution that the area
:43:39. > :43:41.like Stoke`on`Trent Staffordshire can make to the overall economy of
:43:42. > :43:55.the UK is absolutely huge. Local businesses say it would give
:43:56. > :44:00.the city he does it is waiting for. It will create jobs, it will bring
:44:01. > :44:05.investment and attract new businesses to this great city. 15
:44:06. > :44:09.miles off the road a competitor in the shape of a true railway town.
:44:10. > :44:14.Crew has already appeared as a stop for some HS2 railway trains on the
:44:15. > :44:17.government's preferred route. The stalk plan would involve dragging
:44:18. > :44:22.the track away watching officials into battle mode. The total
:44:23. > :44:25.connectivity argument that the government talk about in the
:44:26. > :44:31.capacity argument is enhanced with crew. At the end of the day the real
:44:32. > :44:36.deal is here. Out here in the Staffordshire countryside we know
:44:37. > :44:40.HS2 is especially unpopular along the route of the line. Does the
:44:41. > :44:45.prospect of a station in Stoke`on`Trent sweep protest was? It
:44:46. > :44:49.is probably part of the HS2 and government attitudes towards divide
:44:50. > :44:55.and rule. Oil/and crew are fighting amongst themselves as to who is
:44:56. > :45:00.getting it they will steam`roll us on. Mackie station in Stoke`on`Trent
:45:01. > :45:04.will not change anything for Jim, who has been farming here for
:45:05. > :45:06.decades and has been the leading his retirement because the wine will
:45:07. > :45:08.come through his retirement because the label conference field. What do
:45:09. > :45:14.you think of the amount of communication you have had from HS2?
:45:15. > :45:17.It is disgraceful. I had to phone them in June before the medication
:45:18. > :45:25.as they sent me a letter. They do not know I have here. I have had no
:45:26. > :45:28.communication whatsoever. In our cities or countries and it seems
:45:29. > :45:35.everyone is clamouring for attention from those in charge of HS2.
:45:36. > :45:40.As promised, Alison Munro is here, chief executive of HS2 Ltd. From
:45:41. > :45:44.September she will have a new role as managing director of development
:45:45. > :45:48.she will be overseeing the passage through Parliament of the hybrid
:45:49. > :45:53.bill and work up plans for the second stage of the project north
:45:54. > :45:54.from Birmingham. It was an interesting point that clever
:45:55. > :45:58.forester means there are about divide and rule will local
:45:59. > :46:02.authorities are fighting it out for a slice of the HS2 action they are
:46:03. > :46:06.not fighting the project. What you are seeing here is cities who
:46:07. > :46:11.realise the benefits that high`speed two can bring, just in the
:46:12. > :46:16.Birmingham area in Birmingham stations we reckon that this will
:46:17. > :46:21.support added 8000 jobs, local estimates are much larger, added
:46:22. > :46:25.50,000 jobs in the larger region. This is not about us dividing and
:46:26. > :46:30.ruling it is about cities wanting high`speed two because they can see
:46:31. > :46:33.the benefit in terms of jobs and investment. As you know there are
:46:34. > :46:37.very powerful local authorities and sections that have been influential
:46:38. > :46:41.in opinion including members of Parliament are special in the shire
:46:42. > :46:45.counties who say there is nothing in this at all for the likes of
:46:46. > :46:47.Warwickshire, for large trunks of Staffordshire which could have two
:46:48. > :46:55.lines going through it. What do you say to them? Benefits are much more
:46:56. > :46:58.widespread than just the places served directly by the high`speed
:46:59. > :47:03.route. The existing railway will essentially be fool if we do not do
:47:04. > :47:07.something about capacity on our main routes of the next 15 or 20 years.
:47:08. > :47:13.We expect the West Coast mainline to be fool and that will have much
:47:14. > :47:17.wider effects and many of these places will be served by the railway
:47:18. > :47:21.lines and they will be affected in future if we do not move on
:47:22. > :47:26.capacity. If we concentrate on the arrogant forestation in stalk surely
:47:27. > :47:31.it would make more sense there in terms of rebalancing the economy. ``
:47:32. > :47:37.if we concentrate on the argument for each station. Many cities would
:47:38. > :47:41.like to be served by the high`speed line, with the high`speed line you
:47:42. > :47:46.cannot have too many stops or it ceases to be high`speed line.
:47:47. > :47:51.Capacity is the big deal though. Did we overdo the business about speed?
:47:52. > :47:57.It is about capacity and connectivity, joining up our cities.
:47:58. > :48:02.We could bring the city 's closer together. We looked at on the route
:48:03. > :48:06.to Manchester where we made a station between Birmingham and
:48:07. > :48:09.Manchester. We look at options around stalk and our view was that
:48:10. > :48:18.it was preferable to have a station at Crewe because... It sounds grim
:48:19. > :48:23.for stalk, are they being ruled out? We have just completed a public
:48:24. > :48:29.consultation, I am sure Stoke have submitted their views to that
:48:30. > :48:33.concert `` consultation. After the furore about rising costs is that
:48:34. > :48:41.under control? Costs have never been out of control, that was a complete
:48:42. > :48:46.myth. What we had last summer was a revised budget to include a larger
:48:47. > :48:49.element of contingency, really as a precaution. There are many
:48:50. > :48:53.uncertainties ahead but we are determined to keep the costs under
:48:54. > :48:59.control. An influential servers `` sections of the Labour Party, there
:49:00. > :49:04.are still anxieties about the cost. The Labour Party wants to see HS2
:49:05. > :49:09.but at the right place. My own view is that this is a good idea for the
:49:10. > :49:13.country, to bring the country closer together, to make it faster to get
:49:14. > :49:18.from a to B is something we have always wanted to do. The technology
:49:19. > :49:22.has moved on and this is the new technology but the nation is to be
:49:23. > :49:28.able to afford it. If we can afford it it is a good project. Sceptical
:49:29. > :49:33.voices on cost have been heard from the Treasury as well. Do you share
:49:34. > :49:38.or understand their concern about the escalating costs? There are
:49:39. > :49:43.costs for any major infrastructure project and we are very important.
:49:44. > :49:47.We always want to get the best value for money. I agree with what Alison
:49:48. > :49:51.has had to say and I think the approach to this has been the right
:49:52. > :49:55.one. The important thing is having confidence in a long`term project
:49:56. > :50:01.that all political parties are committed to. I credit Labour for
:50:02. > :50:05.starting this project, we supported it in opposition. We support it now
:50:06. > :50:09.in government. It is a shame that Labour have started playing
:50:10. > :50:12.political games with us. It would be better for the country is Ed Balls
:50:13. > :50:18.at Ed Miliband could get united on this and stand behind the project.
:50:19. > :50:22.As I said, Labour supports it at the right place. It is not a political
:50:23. > :50:25.game with the country is facing tough public spending decisions to
:50:26. > :50:29.see that the major public spending project must come in at the right
:50:30. > :50:33.price. It is the responsible thing to say. Allison, let me ask you
:50:34. > :50:41.topical question that has come as a result of my latest blog post, it is
:50:42. > :50:45.from a woman who asks, when the environment agency is limited to the
:50:46. > :50:51.cost benefit ratio of 128, ?8 benefit for every ?1 that goes in,
:50:52. > :50:57.how can you justify your resume of just one to point HS2? It is not
:50:58. > :51:05.starving much of a bank for a box? Our issue is not 1.9 21, if you look
:51:06. > :51:13.at the Ritz from Manchester to Leeds, it is to to one. When growth
:51:14. > :51:21.continues this will be more like four 21. This is partly because the
:51:22. > :51:25.existing railway will come to a halt if we do not do something to invest
:51:26. > :51:28.in capacity. For a moment let's think about the people at the sharp
:51:29. > :51:32.end because there cannot be anything more soul destroying for homeowners
:51:33. > :51:37.on the proposed route than property blight. The North Warwickshire
:51:38. > :51:40.village of Gilson has to be the ultimate example. Nearly every home
:51:41. > :51:48.has been deleted, even estate agents have turned their backs on them.
:51:49. > :51:52.Britain's most blighted village? Quite possibly. To the west to the M
:51:53. > :51:56.42 and six interchange and if the government gets its way it will soon
:51:57. > :52:00.be completely hand in by the high`speed rail line. People want to
:52:01. > :52:03.get on with their lives but they cannot plan for the future. They
:52:04. > :52:08.have children to think about, schools, retirement, the whole area
:52:09. > :52:13.is just pointed at the moment. Nearly all of these homes are in the
:52:14. > :52:16.HS2 safeguarding zone which means homeowners can ask the government to
:52:17. > :52:20.buy them so they can move, but letters from the Department for
:52:21. > :52:23.transport say that the government is unable to buy the majority of
:52:24. > :52:28.projects at the moment because the land is not required to build or
:52:29. > :52:34.operate phase one of HS2. The uncertainty is causing frustration.
:52:35. > :52:38.Many of us have put our little project, including the kitchen and
:52:39. > :52:43.so forth, on hold, because of the uncertainty which doesn't seem to
:52:44. > :52:47.drag on. Local estate agents see it is important to sell homes here.
:52:48. > :52:53.These houses are only 100 metres away from the roots, which makes
:52:54. > :52:57.these properties unsellable. The government says they will only buy
:52:58. > :53:01.properties that will be knocked down if the wind is built, but the good
:53:02. > :53:05.news is that a new compensation scheme is expected to clarify the
:53:06. > :53:10.situation in the summer. Until then residents will be left in limbo if
:53:11. > :53:13.not completely at their wits end. I am sure they are at their wits end
:53:14. > :53:17.and that clarification from your government, it can't come soon
:53:18. > :53:21.enough from the long`suffering people of the proposed route. I
:53:22. > :53:24.agree, these people are in a difficult position through no fault
:53:25. > :53:28.of their own, and it is absolutely right that the government comes up
:53:29. > :53:33.with a decision on this as as soon as possible. It raises the point of
:53:34. > :53:38.compensating and cushioning people along the route. This will cost
:53:39. > :53:41.money. As the Treasury Ministry you must be vigilant on that. You must
:53:42. > :53:47.get the Democratic buy in. The latest polls show that 53% of the
:53:48. > :53:50.voting public are opposed to it. Parliament are out of touch again.
:53:51. > :53:54.We must focus on the long`term benefits for the country, not just
:53:55. > :53:58.this generation but future generations as well. As he heard
:53:59. > :54:02.from Alison this is about the capacity issue, we have not built
:54:03. > :54:06.the real line north of London for over 120 years. It is right that we
:54:07. > :54:11.think about building the capacity now. Whenever you have the major of
:54:12. > :54:16.the structure projects we look back to the M 40 and M25 and M1 there
:54:17. > :54:19.were many people who were affected but I think the government at the
:54:20. > :54:24.time did the right thing and focus on what is best for the country. You
:54:25. > :54:32.do you have sympathy as an organ in the? You do not look at this in
:54:33. > :54:36.terms of votes for one party or another, you must have sympathy for
:54:37. > :54:39.people in the direct line of the route but this points to another
:54:40. > :54:43.issue that people need reassurance about, which is services between
:54:44. > :54:47.places like Wolverhampton and London, which are not on the line
:54:48. > :54:52.but enjoy a decent direct service at the moment. It is very important for
:54:53. > :54:56.my constituents in terms of this capacity argument that there is
:54:57. > :55:01.still a good direct service from Wolverhampton to London after HS2 is
:55:02. > :55:03.built. We have committed that places who currently have a service to
:55:04. > :55:08.London will have broadly comparable or better services with the advent
:55:09. > :55:11.of HS2 but the other point I would make is that if you do not invest in
:55:12. > :55:14.capacity those places will have a very much worse service in the
:55:15. > :55:20.future. Places where people cannot get on trains. I mentioned earlier
:55:21. > :55:26.that you are going to be overseeing the progress of this hybrid Bill.
:55:27. > :55:30.Always a fresh report about the potential delays and challenges. It
:55:31. > :55:33.could be a close run thing getting this through before the next
:55:34. > :55:38.election. Is that not a challenge for those of you in support of this?
:55:39. > :55:44.The Mac now that the bill is in parliament, that was a major
:55:45. > :55:47.milestone. The timetable now is in the hands of the Parliamentary
:55:48. > :55:51.authorities and everyone wants to get this forward as quickly as they
:55:52. > :55:56.can. We are working very hard to make sure that we make the process
:55:57. > :56:01.as smooth as possible. In the palace to say what the prospect that gets
:56:02. > :56:05.through in time? On the whole, the question people ask is why does it
:56:06. > :56:10.take so long from the conception to the opening stage for the first new
:56:11. > :56:13.railway line for such a long time north of London. We are talking
:56:14. > :56:19.about decades. In other countries these things happen quicker. Part of
:56:20. > :56:22.the reason it slows down is because of the parliamentary debate and
:56:23. > :56:25.consultations but that is a good thing, it is good to debate these
:56:26. > :56:29.things and ensure you have looked at everything. If that means it takes
:56:30. > :56:38.longer then fine but I am confident we will get on timetable. Thank you.
:56:39. > :56:51.Time to catch up with the other political developments making the
:56:52. > :56:55.news in the Midlands in 60 seconds. Police say an enquiry into
:56:56. > :57:00.allegations that MVP Nicky Sinclair inspired to dislodge the European
:57:01. > :57:03.Parliament will be long and complex. She was arrested two years ago.
:57:04. > :57:08.Staffordshire from Ireland Karen Bradley is the new security
:57:09. > :57:11.minister. West Worcestershire is minister replaces her at the
:57:12. > :57:16.office. In Birmingham council taxes going up by 2% in the by`elections
:57:17. > :57:27.shocked as the Tories take standing from Labour. I support him because
:57:28. > :57:36.he supports me. All year long he works tirelessly. Shadow Education
:57:37. > :57:40.Secretary Tristam Hunt has been ticked off for crossing a picket
:57:41. > :57:45.line during electorate straight. The title of his lecture, Marx Engels in
:57:46. > :57:48.the making of Marxism. The environment agency has pleased
:57:49. > :57:50.barriers from Shropshire to Worcestershire to protect hundreds
:57:51. > :57:56.of homes and businesses from the swollen Severn.
:57:57. > :58:02.There is some good news lacking in all of this floodwater but Labour
:58:03. > :58:06.have named the 24 Midlands conservatives including Sajid Javad
:58:07. > :58:11.who voted against a Labour motion in 2011 but condemned what they said
:58:12. > :58:15.was a 27% cut in investment in flood defences. With hindsight, Sajid
:58:16. > :58:22.Javad, this looks like an expensive way to save money. I think that is
:58:23. > :58:26.frankly wrong information. If you would get the total spending on
:58:27. > :58:31.flood defences over the past four years of the 2014 that is ?2.4
:58:32. > :58:36.million higher than the 2.2 billion for the past four years under
:58:37. > :58:40.Labour. What we have seen this week, it is a terrible situation for many
:58:41. > :58:44.people up and down the country. The most important thing is emergency
:58:45. > :58:46.aid, ensure that gets in. As the Prime Minister said there is no
:58:47. > :58:50.limit to the emergency help that can be provided and that is right. We
:58:51. > :58:53.must sit back and look at the lessons from this and ensure we must
:58:54. > :58:56.sit back and look at the lessons from this and injury when the
:58:57. > :59:00.lessons. Sajid Javad quoted the numbers, but we have seen
:59:01. > :59:03.finger`pointing between the new bar fight between the two main parties.
:59:04. > :59:07.Is this a bit prospect and people are suffering? The government have
:59:08. > :59:15.had to correct themselves and their claims about spending more money.
:59:16. > :59:18.There is more going in now. It is a lot of local authority spending
:59:19. > :59:22.counted on what they are saying but I don't think people who are
:59:23. > :59:29.currently battling flooding welcome a particle article battle in this.
:59:30. > :59:32.`` party political battle. This is ultimately mostly down to the
:59:33. > :59:36.weather had the terrible storms and rain we have had it I want to pay
:59:37. > :59:40.tribute to every environment agency member of staff, army officer,
:59:41. > :59:44.police and fire officers and volunteers themselves who have been
:59:45. > :59:47.doing their best to help in what has been a really difficult situation
:59:48. > :59:51.for the country in the past few months. Briefly, we saw the effect
:59:52. > :59:59.of that campaign video. Will you have one in your campaign? If I had
:00:00. > :00:06.a campaign song I have always liked Van Morrison's Braeside of the Lord.
:00:07. > :00:12.Appropriate. Is there one that talks about drug of the keys back to the
:00:13. > :00:17.driver of a car? A global. We will pull the plug. It is half term at
:00:18. > :00:23.Westminster saw a programme takes a break next Sunday, we will be here
:00:24. > :00:26.reporting on other things, those quarterly on climate figures on
:00:27. > :00:32.Wednesday. Your BBC local radio station will explain what they mean
:00:33. > :00:36.where you live. Midlands today will have the bigger picture at 1:30pm,
:00:37. > :00:40.six of the PM in the late bulletin at 10:25pm.
:00:41. > :00:48.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,
:00:49. > :00:52.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking
:00:53. > :00:55.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been
:00:56. > :00:58.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few
:00:59. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,
:01:04. > :01:09.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.
:01:10. > :01:14.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the
:01:15. > :01:23.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line
:01:24. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was
:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.
:01:34. > :01:38.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to
:01:39. > :01:42.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very
:01:43. > :01:45.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband
:01:46. > :01:49.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government
:01:50. > :01:52.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual
:01:53. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate
:01:58. > :02:01.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't
:02:02. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly
:02:07. > :02:09.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The
:02:10. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm
:02:15. > :02:18.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not
:02:19. > :02:22.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts
:02:23. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those
:02:28. > :02:32.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he
:02:33. > :02:37.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate
:02:38. > :02:41.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in
:02:42. > :02:46.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and
:02:47. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything
:02:50. > :02:54.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,
:02:55. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government
:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by
:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to
:03:07. > :03:16.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.
:03:17. > :03:21.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down
:03:22. > :03:24.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,
:03:25. > :03:29.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than
:03:30. > :03:32.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed
:03:33. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there
:03:36. > :03:41.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems
:03:42. > :03:44.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further
:03:45. > :03:48.south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our
:03:49. > :03:54.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's
:03:55. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science
:04:00. > :04:01.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate
:04:02. > :04:06.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had
:04:07. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in
:04:14. > :04:15.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual
:04:16. > :04:20.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour
:04:21. > :04:24.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a
:04:25. > :04:28.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather
:04:29. > :04:31.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,
:04:32. > :04:37.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest
:04:38. > :04:43.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that
:04:44. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is
:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that
:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,
:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the
:05:04. > :05:09.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come
:05:10. > :05:13.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we
:05:14. > :05:16.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick
:05:17. > :05:21.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.
:05:22. > :05:25.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise
:05:26. > :05:31.reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making
:05:32. > :05:34.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour
:05:35. > :05:39.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP
:05:40. > :05:42.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of
:05:43. > :05:46.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their
:05:47. > :05:52.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly
:05:53. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to
:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for
:06:02. > :06:06.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a
:06:07. > :06:10.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a
:06:11. > :06:15.commentator rather than head of communications for a political
:06:16. > :06:21.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome
:06:22. > :06:25.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop
:06:26. > :06:31.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic
:06:32. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be
:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no
:06:43. > :06:50.longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is
:06:51. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,
:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get
:06:59. > :07:04.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two
:07:05. > :07:09.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see
:07:10. > :07:11.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there
:07:12. > :07:15.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been
:07:16. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country
:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding
:07:29. > :07:33.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the
:07:34. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory
:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?
:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not
:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think
:07:54. > :07:57.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a
:07:58. > :08:01.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had
:08:02. > :08:04.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,
:08:05. > :08:09.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of
:08:10. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when
:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,
:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties
:08:22. > :08:26.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made
:08:27. > :08:29.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a
:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about
:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is
:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them
:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You
:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But
:08:52. > :08:55.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate
:08:56. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories
:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact
:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the
:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.
:09:13. > :09:17.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't
:09:18. > :09:20.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of
:09:21. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think
:09:25. > :09:28.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than
:09:29. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!
:09:33. > :09:39.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I
:09:40. > :09:45.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of
:09:46. > :09:53.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,
:09:54. > :09:57.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an
:09:58. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up
:10:03. > :10:06.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden
:10:07. > :10:10.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is
:10:11. > :10:15.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his
:10:16. > :10:18.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and
:10:19. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.
:10:25. > :10:31.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot
:10:32. > :10:35.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women
:10:36. > :10:40.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.
:10:41. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less
:10:45. > :10:50.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives
:10:51. > :10:56.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential
:10:57. > :11:00.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the
:11:01. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they
:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the
:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just
:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour
:11:19. > :11:22.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told
:11:23. > :11:28.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It
:11:29. > :11:33.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of
:11:34. > :11:38.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the
:11:39. > :11:42.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,
:11:43. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female
:11:48. > :11:52.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is
:11:53. > :11:59.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?
:12:00. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a
:12:04. > :12:08.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.
:12:09. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As
:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very
:12:20. > :12:21.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in
:12:22. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change
:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they
:12:40. > :12:45.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense
:12:46. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will
:12:52. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see
:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going
:13:05. > :13:07.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour
:13:08. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think
:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I
:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?
:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her
:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week
:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is
:13:43. > :13:44.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.