23/03/2014

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:00:37. > :00:43.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely

:00:44. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't

:00:47. > :00:49.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election

:00:50. > :00:54.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns

:00:55. > :00:58.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old

:00:59. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all

:01:02. > :01:08.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the

:01:09. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy

:01:11. > :01:14.Mondays tells us about his unlikely plan to become

:01:15. > :01:20.And in the Midlands, a month on from the floods, could the EU wade in on

:01:21. > :01:22.a rescue mission? An MEP wants Britain to bid for a share of a four

:01:23. > :01:26.hundred million pounds European stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of

:01:27. > :01:38.making the European arrest warrant work better? -- Uxbridge. And who

:01:39. > :01:41.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who

:01:42. > :01:45.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his

:01:46. > :01:47.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and

:01:48. > :01:53.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick

:01:54. > :02:00.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

:02:01. > :02:04.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so

:02:05. > :02:08.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of

:02:09. > :02:11.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably

:02:12. > :02:15.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3 5

:02:16. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in

:02:17. > :02:48.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their

:02:49. > :02:51.own, driven partly by tradition like that photocall at 11 Downing

:02:52. > :02:54.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and

:02:55. > :03:06.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget

:03:07. > :03:10.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of

:03:11. > :03:13.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the

:03:14. > :03:17.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one

:03:18. > :03:20.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be

:03:21. > :03:22.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily

:03:23. > :03:28.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what

:03:29. > :03:32.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to

:03:33. > :03:34.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the

:03:35. > :03:40.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and

:03:41. > :03:43.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures

:03:44. > :03:48.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on

:03:49. > :03:55.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax

:03:56. > :04:00.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which

:04:01. > :04:05.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster

:04:06. > :04:09.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or the froth on the top. And changes to

:04:10. > :04:12.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum

:04:13. > :04:21.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.

:04:22. > :04:25.This is a Budget for the makers the doers and the savers and I commend

:04:26. > :04:28.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to

:04:29. > :04:32.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not

:04:33. > :04:39.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of

:04:40. > :04:43.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all

:04:44. > :04:46.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an

:04:47. > :04:49.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people

:04:50. > :04:54.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering

:04:55. > :04:57.the Budget at the best of times though some, including Labour MPs,

:04:58. > :05:01.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.

:05:02. > :05:08.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed

:05:09. > :05:11.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits

:05:12. > :05:19.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.

:05:20. > :05:22.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget

:05:23. > :05:25.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and

:05:26. > :05:28.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and

:05:29. > :05:37.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?

:05:38. > :05:40.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days

:05:41. > :05:43.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still

:05:44. > :05:44.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of

:05:45. > :06:00.voters? How significant are these two poles

:06:01. > :06:09.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party

:06:10. > :06:15.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At

:06:16. > :06:18.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where

:06:19. > :06:23.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been

:06:24. > :06:28.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and

:06:29. > :06:33.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which

:06:34. > :06:39.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the

:06:40. > :06:43.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the

:06:44. > :06:47.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the

:06:48. > :06:53.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The

:06:54. > :06:57.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next

:06:58. > :07:02.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching

:07:03. > :07:07.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing

:07:08. > :07:11.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again

:07:12. > :07:15.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were

:07:16. > :07:19.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy

:07:20. > :07:24.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is

:07:25. > :07:33.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much

:07:34. > :07:38.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the

:07:39. > :07:43.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten

:07:44. > :07:47.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.

:07:48. > :07:52.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There

:07:53. > :07:57.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year

:07:58. > :08:00.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many

:08:01. > :08:06.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people

:08:07. > :08:11.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.

:08:12. > :08:16.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in

:08:17. > :08:22.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your

:08:23. > :08:27.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail

:08:28. > :08:31.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone

:08:32. > :08:37.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily

:08:38. > :08:43.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this

:08:44. > :08:51.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton

:08:52. > :08:58.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did

:08:59. > :09:03.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made

:09:04. > :09:07.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we

:09:08. > :09:11.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure

:09:12. > :09:16.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.

:09:17. > :09:27.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking

:09:28. > :09:30.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are

:09:31. > :09:32.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The

:09:33. > :09:39.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.

:09:40. > :09:48.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ

:09:49. > :09:59.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as

:10:00. > :10:02.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly

:10:03. > :10:05.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having

:10:06. > :10:09.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their

:10:10. > :10:14.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small

:10:15. > :10:23.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and

:10:24. > :10:26.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of

:10:27. > :10:28.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his

:10:29. > :10:31.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in

:10:32. > :10:34.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the

:10:35. > :10:45.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At

:10:46. > :10:48.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,

:10:49. > :10:55.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 2 % of

:10:56. > :10:59.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,

:11:00. > :11:03.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance

:11:04. > :11:07.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities

:11:08. > :11:16.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed

:11:17. > :11:21.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would

:11:22. > :11:25.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,

:11:26. > :11:29.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they

:11:30. > :11:34.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but

:11:35. > :11:46.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer

:11:47. > :11:53.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda

:11:54. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are

:11:59. > :12:02.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a

:12:03. > :12:05.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,

:12:06. > :12:08.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called

:12:09. > :12:11.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might

:12:12. > :12:19.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What

:12:20. > :12:23.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,

:12:24. > :12:26.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we

:12:27. > :12:32.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What

:12:33. > :12:35.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state

:12:36. > :12:39.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with

:12:40. > :12:43.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and

:12:44. > :12:48.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will

:12:49. > :12:52.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices

:12:53. > :13:01.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The

:13:02. > :13:07.average pension pot is between 5000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an

:13:08. > :13:11.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy

:13:12. > :13:15.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a

:13:16. > :13:19.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money

:13:20. > :13:23.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.

:13:24. > :13:27.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire

:13:28. > :13:30.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through

:13:31. > :13:35.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing

:13:36. > :13:42.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much

:13:43. > :13:45.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than

:13:46. > :13:51.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive

:13:52. > :13:59.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 4 %

:14:00. > :14:02.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to

:14:03. > :14:07.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state

:14:08. > :14:12.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given

:14:13. > :14:21.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will

:14:22. > :14:23.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the

:14:24. > :14:29.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have

:14:30. > :14:35.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did

:14:36. > :14:40.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I

:14:41. > :14:45.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade The

:14:46. > :14:48.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules

:14:49. > :14:52.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in

:14:53. > :15:01.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We

:15:02. > :15:04.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year

:15:05. > :15:06.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month

:15:07. > :15:10.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There

:15:11. > :15:15.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how

:15:16. > :15:18.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread

:15:19. > :15:22.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of

:15:23. > :15:26.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are

:15:27. > :15:29.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25

:15:30. > :15:35.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below

:15:36. > :15:53.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the

:15:54. > :16:03.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there

:16:04. > :16:09.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole

:16:10. > :16:13.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,

:16:14. > :16:19.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment

:16:20. > :16:24.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures

:16:25. > :16:30.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to

:16:31. > :16:36.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another

:16:37. > :16:42.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax

:16:43. > :16:47.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners

:16:48. > :16:53.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they

:16:54. > :17:01.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they

:17:02. > :17:06.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment

:17:07. > :17:11.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age

:17:12. > :17:18.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that

:17:19. > :17:24.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent

:17:25. > :17:28.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to

:17:29. > :17:33.provide an income in retirement that is how it was structured, but

:17:34. > :17:40.that is no longer a requirement surely that undermines the case that

:17:41. > :17:46.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.

:17:47. > :17:59.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax

:18:00. > :18:08.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your

:18:09. > :18:12.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they

:18:13. > :18:17.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue

:18:18. > :18:22.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that

:18:23. > :18:29.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected

:18:30. > :18:33.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right

:18:34. > :18:38.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered

:18:39. > :18:44.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally

:18:45. > :18:49.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a

:18:50. > :18:53.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have

:18:54. > :18:59.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their

:19:00. > :19:03.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done

:19:04. > :19:10.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought

:19:11. > :19:20.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these

:19:21. > :19:24.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?

:19:25. > :19:31.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working

:19:32. > :19:35.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates

:19:36. > :19:44.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.

:19:45. > :19:52.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax

:19:53. > :19:58.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners And

:19:59. > :20:01.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account

:20:02. > :20:07.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years

:20:08. > :20:14.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by

:20:15. > :20:18.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the

:20:19. > :20:23.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the

:20:24. > :20:26.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these

:20:27. > :20:32.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We

:20:33. > :20:38.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance As

:20:39. > :20:42.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money

:20:43. > :20:48.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if

:20:49. > :20:52.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will

:20:53. > :20:57.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has

:20:58. > :21:02.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will

:21:03. > :21:07.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax

:21:08. > :21:14.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill

:21:15. > :21:18.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort

:21:19. > :21:23.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at

:21:24. > :21:30.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot

:21:31. > :21:33.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing

:21:34. > :21:44.benefit. There will be people on the margins and

:21:45. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to

:21:46. > :21:52.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even

:21:53. > :21:58.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't

:21:59. > :22:04.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a

:22:05. > :22:19.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my

:22:20. > :22:22.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an

:22:23. > :22:25.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're

:22:26. > :22:27.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless

:22:28. > :22:31.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that

:22:32. > :22:33.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the

:22:34. > :22:37.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message

:22:38. > :22:43.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.

:22:44. > :22:48.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she

:22:49. > :22:53.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a

:22:54. > :22:57.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But

:22:58. > :23:01.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new

:23:02. > :23:08.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and

:23:09. > :23:13.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,

:23:14. > :23:19.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by

:23:20. > :23:25.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and

:23:26. > :23:29.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just

:23:30. > :23:35.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put

:23:36. > :23:40.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way

:23:41. > :23:49.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to

:23:50. > :23:53.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by

:23:54. > :24:00.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by

:24:01. > :24:04.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we

:24:05. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an

:24:11. > :24:18.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,

:24:19. > :24:26.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to

:24:27. > :24:31.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her

:24:32. > :24:35.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they

:24:36. > :24:44.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain

:24:45. > :24:52.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country

:24:53. > :25:00.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr

:25:01. > :25:03.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They

:25:04. > :25:10.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the

:25:11. > :25:17.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less

:25:18. > :25:26.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.

:25:27. > :25:35.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit

:25:36. > :25:42.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.

:25:43. > :25:49.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to

:25:50. > :25:57.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting

:25:58. > :26:02.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,

:26:03. > :26:07.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,

:26:08. > :26:17.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am

:26:18. > :26:25.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic I

:26:26. > :26:29.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this

:26:30. > :26:33.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,

:26:34. > :26:38.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but

:26:39. > :26:44.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable

:26:45. > :26:48.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can

:26:49. > :26:53.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be

:26:54. > :27:01.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians

:27:02. > :27:05.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try

:27:06. > :27:07.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the

:27:08. > :27:16.link. And we're joined now by the

:27:17. > :27:22.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had

:27:23. > :27:30.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a

:27:31. > :27:43.recognition that or politician -- all politics these days is like

:27:44. > :27:50.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics

:27:51. > :27:55.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these

:27:56. > :28:02.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,

:28:03. > :28:07.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is

:28:08. > :28:12.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.

:28:13. > :28:16.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning

:28:17. > :28:24.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of

:28:25. > :28:28.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on

:28:29. > :28:33.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to

:28:34. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this

:28:39. > :28:42.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are

:28:43. > :28:48.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,

:28:49. > :28:53.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because

:28:54. > :28:59.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know

:29:00. > :29:04.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner,

:29:05. > :29:09.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which

:29:10. > :29:12.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the

:29:13. > :29:17.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local

:29:18. > :29:23.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of

:29:24. > :29:29.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your

:29:30. > :29:35.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%

:29:36. > :29:40.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.

:29:41. > :29:47.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,

:29:48. > :29:50.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would

:29:51. > :30:07.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this

:30:08. > :30:16.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the

:30:17. > :30:21.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have

:30:22. > :30:27.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated

:30:28. > :30:33.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You

:30:34. > :30:39.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there

:30:40. > :30:43.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we

:30:44. > :30:51.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did

:30:52. > :30:55.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key

:30:56. > :31:01.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern

:31:02. > :31:12.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We

:31:13. > :31:17.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What

:31:18. > :31:20.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can

:31:21. > :31:25.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and

:31:26. > :31:32.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does

:31:33. > :31:37.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,

:31:38. > :31:41.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be

:31:42. > :31:45.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and

:31:46. > :31:50.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties

:31:51. > :31:54.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not

:31:55. > :31:59.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of

:32:00. > :32:04.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people

:32:05. > :32:12.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the

:32:13. > :32:22.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were

:32:23. > :32:28.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that

:32:29. > :32:32.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget

:32:33. > :32:41.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour

:32:42. > :32:48.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne

:32:49. > :32:54.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band

:32:55. > :32:56.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr

:32:57. > :33:12.Miller band. Thank you for being with us today.

:33:13. > :33:16.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say

:33:17. > :33:19.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics

:33:20. > :33:29.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes: We'll

:33:30. > :33:34.Hello once again from the Mhdlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And we'rd joined

:33:35. > :33:39.this week by two of our regtlars on this programme. And see what it s

:33:40. > :33:42.done for them? Promotion. If you want to get on the fast`track, get

:33:43. > :33:44.on the Sunday Politics. Harriett Baldwin, Conservative MP for West

:33:45. > :33:49.Worcestershire, joined the Government last month as a Treasury

:33:50. > :33:52.Whip. And Steve McCabe, Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak, rdcently

:33:53. > :33:59.became a Shadow Minister for Children and the Family. And it s

:34:00. > :34:03.with the fast`track that we begin, because exactly a month ago the

:34:04. > :34:05.Chief Executive of HS2 Ltd, Alison Munro, said on this programle that

:34:06. > :34:08.campaigners fighting for a high`speed station in Stoke

:34:09. > :34:18.shouldn't give up while offhcial consultations are still in progress.

:34:19. > :34:21.So how does that square with last week's announcement by HS2's new

:34:22. > :34:24.boss, Sir David Higgins, th`t he wants to speed`up the construction

:34:25. > :34:27.of the route North via Crewd instead, and to complete it

:34:28. > :34:34.significantly ahead of the original schedule, by 2027? You can hmagine

:34:35. > :34:47.how that's gone down with Stoke s Labour MPs. Sir David Higgins

:34:48. > :34:53.announced proposals on how HS2 and suggested they should be a station

:34:54. > :34:57.at Crewe, ignoring the very very good proposal put forward bx the

:34:58. > :35:02.council that will save ?5 bhllion and bring services to Manchdster,

:35:03. > :35:06.seven years early. And Stoke City Council have approved

:35:07. > :35:09.plans to spend ?800,000 on their bid for an HS2 station. Labour

:35:10. > :35:19.councillor Andy Platt says Stoke is a Premier League city, whild Crewe

:35:20. > :35:23.is still in the Fourth Division You can see where those councillors are

:35:24. > :35:28.coming from but looking at the general scene, they are wasting

:35:29. > :35:33.their breath to say nothing of the money? It was a good document on HS2

:35:34. > :35:38.showing what the positive ilpact will be in the Midlands. As a

:35:39. > :35:42.Midlands MP, there's opporttnities for lots of businesses so it's not

:35:43. > :35:52.just where the station stops, it is also the different suppliers.

:35:53. > :35:57.Obviously I can see why people in Stoke are fighting for Stokd, if

:35:58. > :36:01.everyone has a station on the line it will not be high speed. There are

:36:02. > :36:05.difficult decisions to be m`de and not everyone will be happy. Do you

:36:06. > :36:11.have any support for party colleagues in Stoke because it does

:36:12. > :36:18.appear to be Crewe and not Stoke. Well, if I was eight Stoke LP I

:36:19. > :36:23.would be doing what they ard doing but I am in the fortunate position

:36:24. > :36:28.of being a Birmingham MP and we stand to benefit. What I am not

:36:29. > :36:33.clear about is the strength of the argument for Crewe as opposdd to

:36:34. > :36:39.Stoke is. That is part of the problem with HS2. I was strtck with

:36:40. > :36:44.a survey in my constituency where over 20% of people didn't fdel they

:36:45. > :36:48.knew enough about it to be hn favour or against and this problem about

:36:49. > :36:54.not knowing enough is part of the problem. What about a minister for

:36:55. > :37:00.HS2 which was suggested, wotld that be helpful?

:37:01. > :37:04.It sounds like a gimmick. They should get on and do it.

:37:05. > :37:06.The transport minister is responsible and is doing a great

:37:07. > :37:10.job. Still to come: how will the Budget

:37:11. > :37:13.play here, away from the Westminster village? The Benefits Street star

:37:14. > :37:15."White" Dee Kelly brews`up her verdict on George Osborne's

:37:16. > :37:23.blueprint for economic and dlectoral recovery.

:37:24. > :37:29.We'll have more on a most political of budgets, a little later on.

:37:30. > :37:33.It's more than a month now since flooding left a trail of misery and

:37:34. > :37:37.mayhem here. The Government's response: a ten million pound

:37:38. > :37:42.business support scheme, plts up to 5,000 pounds per household for extra

:37:43. > :37:45.defences. So you'd think thdy'd be even more excited about a share of a

:37:46. > :37:51.four hundred million pound Duropean Solidarity Fund for flood`rdlief.

:37:52. > :37:54.Our BBC Hereford and Worcester Political Reporter Matthew Bone

:37:55. > :37:59.explains why Britain may not even apply for it.

:38:00. > :38:04.It was some of the worst flooding that Worcestershire had seen for

:38:05. > :38:09.years and the village of Severn Stoke was one of the worst hit. One

:38:10. > :38:17.month on the water may have gone but the damage remains. The village

:38:18. > :38:24.church is still recovering. The water came up to this first step

:38:25. > :38:29.here. Just just about there. The parish hall was also badly

:38:30. > :38:34.damaged. This was quite badly under water,

:38:35. > :38:39.six inches and four inches here And the local pub's makeshift flood

:38:40. > :38:46.barriers weren't enough. In the bar and pub it came hn up to

:38:47. > :38:51.their on the bar because thd water was in for a fortnight. It has been

:38:52. > :38:57.a struggle. We haven't had `ny money for some time. There are bills still

:38:58. > :39:03.going out and wages we have been paying out. To be honest, it is a

:39:04. > :39:08.struggle. Particularly over eight or nine weeks.

:39:09. > :39:11.The government has set asidd ten million pounds to help flooded

:39:12. > :39:13.businesses. ?1.2 million of that is coming to our region. Worcestershire

:39:14. > :39:16.and Gloucestershire will both get around half a million pounds,

:39:17. > :39:19.130,000 will go to Herefordshire and 80,000 to the Shropshire arda.

:39:20. > :39:26.Councillors in Worcestershire say damaged businesses will get up to

:39:27. > :39:29.?3,000 each. We have been working with central government and the

:39:30. > :39:34.District Council to make sure that support is available to bushnesses

:39:35. > :39:38.and the support gets deploydd as quickly as possible to help people

:39:39. > :39:41.recover, and clean up their properties and be open for business.

:39:42. > :39:46.But is ?3,000 per business dnough? And could we get some extra help

:39:47. > :39:49.from the continent? The EU has around ?400 million in a "solidarity

:39:50. > :39:53.fund" to help with things lhke flooding. But to qualify, the

:39:54. > :39:57.government needs to show thdre's been damage of around ?3 billion.

:39:58. > :40:00.And that's where the problel is The government says that ` bad `s it's

:40:01. > :40:04.been ` there hasn't been enough damage across the UK to qualify for

:40:05. > :40:11.the EU support. But Liberal Democrat MEPs ` who have been petitioning the

:40:12. > :40:15.government to apply ` disagree. There have been cases where the fund

:40:16. > :40:19.has been accessed by member states where they have been nowherd near

:40:20. > :40:21.the threshold. People in Severn Stoke are now

:40:22. > :40:25.campaigning for better flood defences ` they want to makd sure

:40:26. > :40:28.this kind of damage doesn't happen again. In the meantime housdholds

:40:29. > :40:31.and businesses are trying to recover ` and they say they'll take all the

:40:32. > :40:35.help they can get. Matthew Bone reporting. And a

:40:36. > :40:37.further ?140 million funding for improving and repairing flood

:40:38. > :40:43.defences was announced by Gdorge Osborne in the Budget. Let's talk to

:40:44. > :40:46.a tireless campaigner who's been battling for more than thirteen

:40:47. > :40:52.years to raise our general `wareness of the political, economic `nd

:40:53. > :40:58.social challenges posed by flooding. Mary Dhonau has herself been a flood

:40:59. > :41:07.victim time and time again. Not for nothing is she known as "Mary Queen

:41:08. > :41:14.of Floods". It is a nicknamd but very traumatic individually at the

:41:15. > :41:18.time and for communities afterwards. Flooding is for longer

:41:19. > :41:22.than when the minister or mddia are there. Most people are out of their

:41:23. > :41:27.homes for about nine months and during that time they are w`tching

:41:28. > :41:31.as they lose every belonging and as their home becomes a building site.

:41:32. > :41:36.Putting it together and the package announced by the government for our

:41:37. > :41:43.part of the country, 1.2 million, do you think that tallies with the

:41:44. > :41:48.scale of the problem? Whilst I welcome the amount and we

:41:49. > :41:55.could not do without it, I would like to see more money put hn to

:41:56. > :41:59.managing flood risk upfront, strategic planning for the future of

:42:00. > :42:06.flood defences rather than putting in a knee jerk reaction.

:42:07. > :42:10.We have seen how effective flood defences are in places but hsn't

:42:11. > :42:13.there a danger when they work well they relocate the problem for

:42:14. > :42:16.someone else. The Environment Agency are not

:42:17. > :42:23.allowed to build flood defences that make somewhere else flood worse I

:42:24. > :42:31.welcome the work Environment Agency has done along the River Severn

:42:32. > :42:36.The damage here isn't bad enough for the European funding but wh`t is

:42:37. > :42:40.your view about that? There have been other cases were far ldss than

:42:41. > :42:44.3 billion of damage has been caused and they have successfully `pplied

:42:45. > :42:49.for the fund? It is remiss not to have applied for

:42:50. > :42:54.the funding. If we stop and think about a lot of the money is for

:42:55. > :42:58.infrastructure so we think `bout the railway lines, the bridges, the

:42:59. > :43:02.electricity, the gas and evdrything and the roads right across the board

:43:03. > :43:06.I think we need that money to help us recover.

:43:07. > :43:14.Quite remiss and I bet your constituents would welcome ht if you

:43:15. > :43:18.applied for the fund. It is important to put as mtch money

:43:19. > :43:22.as possible into resilience for flood defences and we have done a

:43:23. > :43:27.lot in my constituency, six new schemes since I became an MP in 2010

:43:28. > :43:31.and there was good news along the River Severn. The fact we are

:43:32. > :43:37.focusing on seven Stoke where homes were flooded, there were 100 homes

:43:38. > :43:44.flooded in Worcestershire competitor 4700 last time. We have got to keep

:43:45. > :43:49.on investing in flood defences and I am campaigning for seven Stoke and

:43:50. > :43:54.Tenbury Wells. If there is loney available, let's go for it.

:43:55. > :43:58.Someone aspiring to be in government, this is not an hssue

:43:59. > :44:04.that will go away on your w`tch Long`term resilience is an hssue.

:44:05. > :44:09.Yes, the evidence is that it will get worse so we all have to deal

:44:10. > :44:15.with that. I am not sure whx we can't qualify for money this time,

:44:16. > :44:21.we could in 2007, it hasn't been as bad in some areas but in other

:44:22. > :44:27.parts... I would like to he`r what they are doing, it's been a number

:44:28. > :44:31.of weeks since we have had radio silence. We need to know if they are

:44:32. > :44:37.considering it or if the Environment Secretary is opposed to it. We need

:44:38. > :44:41.to know. We got it in 2007, I wouldn't have thought it was

:44:42. > :44:48.dramatically different. There's a bit of an issue about the

:44:49. > :44:53.future membership of the EU. Maybe they are embarrassed to go for it.

:44:54. > :44:59.That would be wrong. There hs a high threshold, there have been regions

:45:00. > :45:03.of the UK badly affected and maybe a case for looking at it at a regional

:45:04. > :45:09.basis. When I speak to ministers they have not brought out applying

:45:10. > :45:15.the funding. They have until Tuesday. That is the cut`off date.

:45:16. > :45:22.It is a large application and we are near to closing.

:45:23. > :45:25.It will not happen. I am not sure if they have reached

:45:26. > :45:29.the threshold. David Cameron said we have to learn

:45:30. > :45:37.the lessons from this, are we learning the lessons?

:45:38. > :45:42.I hope this flood has creatdd a shift change, I have seen m`ny

:45:43. > :45:46.floods and many ministers that said this is a wake`up call and pressed

:45:47. > :45:51.the snooze button and gone back to sleep. I hope people stay awake and

:45:52. > :45:55.do something about it. Is that fair, are you presshng the

:45:56. > :46:00.snooze button? We have done a lot in Worcestershire

:46:01. > :46:06.and will carry on. The Environment Agency will sack

:46:07. > :46:12.2000 people, it has been put on hold but it is not snoozing, it hs deep

:46:13. > :46:15.sleep. Not on flood maintenance and flood

:46:16. > :46:19.defences. More money was in the budget for that.

:46:20. > :46:22.Thank you. Thank you, Mary. And the effects of the floods in Shropshire

:46:23. > :46:25.will be examined throughout this coming week on BBC Radio

:46:26. > :46:33.Shropshire's Breakfast Show with Eric Smith and Clare Ashford.

:46:34. > :46:36.The accident of timing that produced the latest unemployment figtres

:46:37. > :46:39.three hours before the Budgdt, guaranteed our two biggest parties

:46:40. > :46:46.would clash even before George Osborne stood up. For the Government

:46:47. > :46:51.it's further proof that thehr plan is working. In the West Midlands a

:46:52. > :46:58.fall of 19,000 to a new tot`l of 221,000 means the rate is now 8 2%.

:46:59. > :47:00.But that's still one percent above the UK average. Our Business

:47:01. > :47:11.Correspondent Peter Plisner considers what's in the Budget for

:47:12. > :47:18.us here. The Chancellor of mixture HLRC

:47:19. > :47:21.George Osborne. `` the Chancellor of the exchequer.

:47:22. > :47:24.The Chancellor delivered his penultimate budget speech bdfore the

:47:25. > :47:26.general election against a backdrop of better economic news.

:47:27. > :47:29.But is that recovery being felt outside the Westminster bubble? The

:47:30. > :47:32.economy is recovering faster than forecast.

:47:33. > :47:40.At this Birmingham coffee m`chine business they think he's got the

:47:41. > :47:45.blend about right. A budget for business, exactly what we w`nted. Do

:47:46. > :47:50.not upset the apple cart. Wd don't want any major upsets to stop

:47:51. > :47:53.business doing well. In the Midlands things are ready booming.

:47:54. > :47:56.A boom for some but what's the verdict in James Turner Strdet `

:47:57. > :47:59.immortalised by Channel four as Benefits Street and in the

:48:00. > :48:09.Birmingham seat with the UK's highest unemployment. I can't see it

:48:10. > :48:14.impacting around to a greatly. Because there doesn't seem to be

:48:15. > :48:21.that much emphasis on trying to help people out of, you know, off

:48:22. > :48:24.unemployment and into work. That is what this street is known for.

:48:25. > :48:28.Meanwhile back at Westminstdr the message from the government was loud

:48:29. > :48:32.and clear. This is a budget for the makers the

:48:33. > :48:37.doers and the savers and I commend it to the house.

:48:38. > :48:40.The question is has he done enough to convince voters in those Midlands

:48:41. > :48:44.marginals? Marginals like Btrton, the home of brewing. But will a

:48:45. > :48:53.penny off a pint really makd much difference? The crux of the issue is

:48:54. > :48:56.the signs are the Labour Party message about the cost of lhving

:48:57. > :49:03.crisis still has more reson`nce than your argument that the plan is

:49:04. > :49:06.working. On Wednesday we saw there on many

:49:07. > :49:12.more jobs in the West Midlands and we are seeing a record numbdr of

:49:13. > :49:17.people in work. People are coming off benefits and we are recovering

:49:18. > :49:22.from the Labour recession which we inherited. What we are also seeing

:49:23. > :49:30.in terms of salaries is in the West Midlands last year there were

:49:31. > :49:34.reports that incomes went up to .9%. We are seeing a recovery.

:49:35. > :49:38.That could be the important point against you if wages start

:49:39. > :49:43.recovering and lifting the puality of living in time for the gdneral

:49:44. > :49:48.election. I do not think that is what people

:49:49. > :49:53.think is happening. Unemploxment in my constituency went up between

:49:54. > :49:59.January and fabric, it is now in a top 20% in the country. Selly Oak.

:50:00. > :50:03.People don't have the confidence that she talks about. The rdality is

:50:04. > :50:10.the people in work they cannot make ends meet. This idea that it is all

:50:11. > :50:13.going to be better in the ftture, we have been hearing that sincd the

:50:14. > :50:20.government came to power. We talked about benefits, your party

:50:21. > :50:25.will not oppose the governmdnt on the benefits cap and yet yot are

:50:26. > :50:30.still saying you will reintroduce this subsidy for housing benefit

:50:31. > :50:35.claimants with a spare bedrooms How does it have a?

:50:36. > :50:42.We will support the overall benefit cap because we want to conthnue

:50:43. > :50:47.welfare cuts but the bedrool tax is not fair, it is not really laking

:50:48. > :50:53.massive savings, it is caushng untold misery and it isn't worth it.

:50:54. > :50:58.I would... The Conservative Party will come to this conclusion. It is

:50:59. > :51:02.another poll tax programme `` problem. Euro`macro I'm surd he has

:51:03. > :51:05.constituents in overcrowded accommodation and it's important we

:51:06. > :51:12.use our precious resources of social housing as carefully as poptlar ``

:51:13. > :51:16.as we can and we pay people for a roof over their head and thdre is a

:51:17. > :51:22.safety net. George Osborne said it was the

:51:23. > :51:28.doers, makers and savers but what about people with pensions grabbing

:51:29. > :51:32.a lump sum and spending it? They are prudent savers who have

:51:33. > :51:39.saved and built up this over their life.

:51:40. > :51:44.Is it a playful Tory voters? It was a manifesto pledge and we

:51:45. > :51:47.have brought in a simple st`te pension for everybody giving

:51:48. > :51:52.everyone a income and what they choose to do over and above that, we

:51:53. > :51:56.now have 3 million more people saving for a pension thanks to

:51:57. > :52:01.automatic enrolment and people are building up sums of money. We must

:52:02. > :52:05.treat them as grown`ups. Rachel Reeves was talking about the

:52:06. > :52:10.pensions market needing reform but the government is doing it.

:52:11. > :52:16.The last time we had a Tory government saying they had solved

:52:17. > :52:19.the pensions problem, we had a mis`selling scandal.

:52:20. > :52:23.`` . Let's catch`up with some of the

:52:24. > :52:27.other political developments making the news here. Our round`up of the

:52:28. > :52:31.week in Sixty Seconds is brought to us today by BBC WM's lunchthme

:52:32. > :52:34.presenter, Caroline Martin. Sandwell Labour councillor Jayne

:52:35. > :52:38.Wilkinson has joined the Grdens She follows Jean Hamilton, who switched

:52:39. > :52:42.from the Lib Dems in Solihull. The Greens now have a record 20

:52:43. > :52:46.councillors in the region. The West Midlands is to get ?14 millhon from

:52:47. > :52:49.the government to fill in pot holes. Herefordshire appears to be the

:52:50. > :52:53.holiest country ` they're gdtting three and a half million potnds In

:52:54. > :52:56.Worcestershore Wyre Forest council leader John Campion is to step down

:52:57. > :53:06.` his Conservative counterp`rt over in Bromsgrove, Roger Hollingworth,

:53:07. > :53:10.has also decided to call it a day. # I am loving angels instead.

:53:11. > :53:12.Take That! Councillors in Stoke`on`Trent have voted

:53:13. > :53:15.unanimously to give superst`r singer Robbie Williams the freedom of the

:53:16. > :53:18.city. And Children's servicds in Coventry ` under scrutiny shnce the

:53:19. > :53:26.murder of four`year`old Danhel Pelka's ` have been branded

:53:27. > :53:33."inadequate" by Ofsted. We recognise what we did wrong, we recognise what

:53:34. > :53:36.we have to learn and I have come in to move us on.

:53:37. > :53:40.So Coventry Children's Servhces join Birmingham and Sandwell as

:53:41. > :53:49.officially inadequate. Wals`ll, on the other hand, is no longer deemed

:53:50. > :53:53.inadequate by Ofsted. You could be a minister for children, the dducation

:53:54. > :53:57.Department are considering what action to take. What action would

:53:58. > :54:01.you take? I think Coventry are doing the right

:54:02. > :54:05.things, the question is if ht will happen fast enough and if it

:54:06. > :54:09.doesn't, the Secretary of State has got the power to move his own people

:54:10. > :54:18.in. Is it the agencies having p`rt of

:54:19. > :54:22.the picture but no joint up idea? The report says the council is

:54:23. > :54:26.criticised but so are the police. They are not working togethdr

:54:27. > :54:29.properly and that is part of the problem.

:54:30. > :54:36.Is it more resources? ``

:54:37. > :54:39.Coventry have put more resotrces in but all authorities are unddr

:54:40. > :54:44.enormous pressure but these things are not about one issue, it is

:54:45. > :54:48.complex sets of problems. What can we do to stop history

:54:49. > :54:54.repeating itself because Daniel Pelka was one of many?

:54:55. > :54:59.Huge respect to the social workers, we have put money into troubled

:55:00. > :55:05.families but also social work so we really want to make sure we have

:55:06. > :55:09.something like social work which attracts really strong calibre

:55:10. > :55:15.people into social work. As a former social worker, ht looks

:55:16. > :55:21.as if there is something profoundly and long`term wrong?

:55:22. > :55:25.I don't know it is profoundly wrong, it is true we need to raise

:55:26. > :55:29.the calibre of people coming into social work and we need to hmprove

:55:30. > :55:34.the quality of front`line m`nagers so they are able to provide

:55:35. > :55:40.supervision and support. Th`t is coming through in report after

:55:41. > :55:43.report. We need to tackle that. There's been a huge increasd in the

:55:44. > :55:47.number of people adopting and we need to see more of that.

:55:48. > :55:50.My thanks to Harriett Baldwhn and Steve McCabe. Finally, are county

:55:51. > :55:54.district councils becoming ` thing of the past? They already are in

:55:55. > :56:01.Shropshire and Herefordshird, where the old two`tier structure has been

:56:02. > :56:05.replaced by unitary authorities There's talk of Gloucestershire

:56:06. > :56:08.going the same way. And next Sunday we'll be reporting from

:56:09. > :56:12.Warwickshire, where they too are actively considering going tnitary.

:56:13. > :56:21.That will be at the slightlx later time of 11.15 here on BBC One.

:56:22. > :56:23.Plenty to talk about. This though is where

:56:24. > :56:24.decision, she will weigh up the factors. Andrew, back

:56:25. > :56:40.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the

:56:41. > :56:45.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.

:56:46. > :56:50.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would

:56:51. > :56:59.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never

:57:00. > :57:02.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make

:57:03. > :57:05.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the

:57:06. > :57:08.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been

:57:09. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a

:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary

:57:15. > :57:27.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!

:57:28. > :57:34.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.

:57:35. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the

:57:39. > :57:42.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed

:57:43. > :57:49.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed

:57:50. > :57:55.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the

:57:56. > :58:00.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact

:58:01. > :58:04.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is

:58:05. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the

:58:14. > :58:18.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of

:58:19. > :58:23.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of

:58:24. > :58:28.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.

:58:29. > :58:32.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a

:58:33. > :58:39.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,

:58:40. > :58:43.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you

:58:44. > :58:51.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by

:58:52. > :58:55.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the

:58:56. > :59:00.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made

:59:01. > :59:05.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour

:59:06. > :59:10.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in

:59:11. > :59:16.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to

:59:17. > :59:19.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love

:59:20. > :59:24.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market

:59:25. > :59:29.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going

:59:30. > :59:35.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party

:59:36. > :59:42.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When

:59:43. > :59:46.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly

:59:47. > :59:49.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on

:59:50. > :59:59.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow

:00:00. > :00:06.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There

:00:07. > :00:13.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the

:00:14. > :00:18.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow

:00:19. > :00:22.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand

:00:23. > :00:28.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some

:00:29. > :00:31.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is

:00:32. > :00:36.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom

:00:37. > :00:40.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax

:00:41. > :00:47.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the

:00:48. > :00:53.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about

:00:54. > :00:58.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of

:00:59. > :01:02.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still

:01:03. > :01:10.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady

:01:11. > :01:18.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road The

:01:19. > :01:22.question is, how do people feel How many people will still not be

:01:23. > :01:26.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not

:01:27. > :01:31.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at

:01:32. > :01:35.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are

:01:36. > :01:40.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?

:01:41. > :01:44.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is

:01:45. > :01:49.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they

:01:50. > :01:54.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how

:01:55. > :01:59.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been

:02:00. > :02:04.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are

:02:05. > :02:09.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a

:02:10. > :02:14.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake

:02:15. > :02:21.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast

:02:22. > :02:26.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out

:02:27. > :02:31.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the

:02:32. > :02:33.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the

:02:34. > :02:40.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the

:02:41. > :02:47.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are

:02:48. > :02:52.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It

:02:53. > :02:56.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we

:02:57. > :03:00.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding

:03:01. > :03:08.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are

:03:09. > :03:11.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted

:03:12. > :03:17.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority

:03:18. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and

:03:23. > :03:31.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is

:03:32. > :03:35.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have

:03:36. > :03:39.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have

:03:40. > :03:43.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction

:03:44. > :03:49.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the

:03:50. > :03:53.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of

:03:54. > :03:58.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something

:03:59. > :04:03.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued

:04:04. > :04:08.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary

:04:09. > :04:13.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch

:04:14. > :04:20.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic

:04:21. > :04:24.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots

:04:25. > :04:31.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You

:04:32. > :04:36.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next

:04:37. > :04:44.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can

:04:45. > :04:52.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The

:04:53. > :05:04.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy

:05:05. > :05:12.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for

:05:13. > :05:16.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very

:05:17. > :05:19.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to

:05:20. > :05:23.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well

:05:24. > :05:31.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour

:05:32. > :05:34.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of

:05:35. > :05:40.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you

:05:41. > :05:42.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the

:05:43. > :05:50.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind

:05:51. > :05:58.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the

:05:59. > :06:05.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by

:06:06. > :06:09.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known

:06:10. > :06:12.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy

:06:13. > :06:15.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for

:06:16. > :06:20.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is

:06:21. > :06:49.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford

:06:50. > :06:57.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you

:06:58. > :07:05.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You

:07:06. > :07:10.having fun doing this candidacy I am doing the job of the politicians

:07:11. > :07:15.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of

:07:16. > :07:19.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in

:07:20. > :07:25.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about

:07:26. > :07:29.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You

:07:30. > :07:39.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole

:07:40. > :07:44.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to

:07:45. > :07:51.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are

:07:52. > :07:56.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you

:07:57. > :08:02.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With

:08:03. > :08:06.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job

:08:07. > :08:10.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am

:08:11. > :08:15.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing

:08:16. > :08:20.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not

:08:21. > :08:24.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this

:08:25. > :08:33.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying

:08:34. > :08:38.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we

:08:39. > :08:43.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning

:08:44. > :08:49.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are

:08:50. > :08:55.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need

:08:56. > :09:00.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as

:09:01. > :09:07.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would

:09:08. > :09:10.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter

:09:11. > :09:15.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like

:09:16. > :09:19.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are

:09:20. > :09:25.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand

:09:26. > :09:29.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making

:09:30. > :09:37.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a

:09:38. > :09:40.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to

:09:41. > :09:46.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out

:09:47. > :09:55.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to

:09:56. > :10:03.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they

:10:04. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people

:10:10. > :10:16.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been

:10:17. > :10:24.speaking to Salford councillors They are going to lend me their

:10:25. > :10:30.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,

:10:31. > :10:35.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our

:10:36. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your

:10:41. > :10:49.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You

:10:50. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for

:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one

:11:02. > :11:04.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics

:11:05. > :11:07.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the

:11:08. > :11:11.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take

:11:12. > :11:15.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of

:11:16. > :11:22.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives

:11:23. > :11:31.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel

:11:32. > :11:38.Farage to a public, open debate about whether she we should be out

:11:39. > :11:49.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 200 , I

:11:50. > :11:55.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel

:11:56. > :12:03.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg

:12:04. > :12:11.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can

:12:12. > :12:23.watch the debate at 7pm on the nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a

:12:24. > :12:26.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your

:12:27. > :12:29.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to

:12:30. > :12:31.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag

:12:32. > :12:34.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up

:12:35. > :12:43.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going

:12:44. > :12:48.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray

:12:49. > :12:53.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in

:12:54. > :12:58.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at

:12:59. > :13:03.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of

:13:04. > :13:07.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows

:13:08. > :13:11.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about

:13:12. > :13:19.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm

:13:20. > :13:25.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you

:13:26. > :13:30.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the

:13:31. > :13:35.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up

:13:36. > :13:49.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is

:13:50. > :13:53.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is

:13:54. > :13:56.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next

:13:57. > :13:58.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the

:13:59. > :14:03.Sunday Politics.