:00:35. > :00:40.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being
:00:41. > :00:43.re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police
:00:44. > :00:47.custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders
:00:48. > :00:59.of the Troubles. That's our top story.
:01:00. > :01:02.He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious
:01:03. > :01:04.electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative
:01:05. > :01:07.Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.
:01:08. > :01:11.And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best
:01:12. > :01:17.And in the Midlands, we're talking likely to be a good
:01:18. > :01:21.And in the Midlands, we're talking elections, too: European, local and
:01:22. > :01:24.a general election just a year away. Bubbling up nicely. The 30 Midlands
:01:25. > :01:25.marginals where elections are won and lost.
:01:26. > :01:30.questions of identity, immigration and independence. We have a table
:01:31. > :01:37.full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.
:01:38. > :01:40.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:41. > :01:42.business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:43. > :01:48.throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.
:01:49. > :01:51.First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a
:01:52. > :01:54.fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with
:01:55. > :02:07.the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has
:02:08. > :02:10.claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it
:02:11. > :02:13.does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern
:02:14. > :02:16.Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he
:02:17. > :02:19.might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry
:02:20. > :02:21.Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the
:02:22. > :02:24.most notorious cases of the Troubles.
:02:25. > :02:31.The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December
:02:32. > :02:36.1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in
:02:37. > :02:43.1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the
:02:44. > :02:46.Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes
:02:47. > :02:54.pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:
:02:55. > :03:08.In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the
:03:09. > :03:13.murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent
:03:14. > :03:17.of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs
:03:18. > :03:20.McConville. We were hoping to speak to the
:03:21. > :03:23.Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an
:03:24. > :03:30.interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from
:03:31. > :03:35.Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And
:03:36. > :03:47.the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams
:03:48. > :03:51.said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the
:03:52. > :03:57.police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we
:03:58. > :04:01.have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in
:04:02. > :04:05.what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he
:04:06. > :04:11.wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet
:04:12. > :04:15.that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we
:04:16. > :04:21.believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of
:04:22. > :04:28.people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves
:04:29. > :04:34.that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the
:04:35. > :04:45.moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of
:04:46. > :04:53.the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The
:04:54. > :04:58.PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other
:04:59. > :05:04.high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people
:05:05. > :05:09.has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were
:05:10. > :05:19.interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they
:05:20. > :05:24.have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't
:05:25. > :05:30.got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the
:05:31. > :05:34.PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference
:05:35. > :05:40.in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from
:05:41. > :05:45.the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the
:05:46. > :05:52.peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in
:05:53. > :05:57.local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have
:05:58. > :06:03.powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is
:06:04. > :06:08.a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and
:06:09. > :06:25.making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react
:06:26. > :06:31.if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.
:06:32. > :06:37.If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern
:06:38. > :06:42.Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious
:06:43. > :06:47.ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a
:06:48. > :06:52.very important role to play to support the police service here. We
:06:53. > :06:58.have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will
:06:59. > :07:02.not accept political interference by a small number of people in the
:07:03. > :07:11.police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political
:07:12. > :07:16.policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we
:07:17. > :07:20.have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams
:07:21. > :07:25.being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from
:07:26. > :07:31.the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of
:07:32. > :07:40.evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why
:07:41. > :07:44.should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you
:07:45. > :07:49.expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the
:07:50. > :07:54.matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to
:07:55. > :07:58.Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a
:07:59. > :08:03.range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made
:08:04. > :08:05.from people, including from people who didn't want their statements
:08:06. > :08:16.released until they have died. who didn't want their statements
:08:17. > :08:24.was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process
:08:25. > :08:28.fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and
:08:29. > :08:30.we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and
:08:31. > :08:44.British and privately with the Irish and
:08:45. > :08:46.process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the
:08:47. > :08:52.woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat
:08:53. > :09:01.out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What
:09:02. > :09:05.question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile
:09:06. > :09:12.and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to
:09:13. > :09:18.use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.
:09:19. > :09:23.Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in
:09:24. > :09:28.days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the
:09:29. > :09:32.peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain
:09:33. > :09:37.of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having
:09:38. > :09:42.mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you
:09:43. > :09:45.have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,
:09:46. > :09:56.you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell
:09:57. > :10:00.but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.
:10:01. > :10:08.Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no
:10:09. > :10:14.action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a
:10:15. > :10:22.one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by
:10:23. > :10:25.the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these
:10:26. > :10:30.inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with
:10:31. > :10:35.the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of
:10:36. > :10:40.real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping
:10:41. > :10:44.he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if
:10:45. > :10:52.everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of
:10:53. > :10:55.the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster
:10:56. > :11:04.to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees
:11:05. > :11:08.himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern
:11:09. > :11:12.Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very
:11:13. > :11:18.revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble
:11:19. > :11:23.Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared
:11:24. > :11:26.don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the
:11:27. > :11:32.Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which
:11:33. > :11:37.it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during
:11:38. > :11:42.the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to
:11:43. > :11:50.tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and
:11:51. > :11:57.military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for
:11:58. > :12:01.the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the
:12:02. > :12:08.confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if
:12:09. > :12:20.even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave
:12:21. > :12:22.it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election
:12:23. > :12:25.campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning
:12:26. > :12:28.local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of
:12:29. > :12:31.the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his
:12:32. > :12:34.promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.
:12:35. > :12:37.And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with
:12:38. > :12:42.Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the
:12:43. > :12:50.UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show
:12:51. > :12:54.this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague
:12:55. > :13:00.promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any
:13:01. > :13:07.intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband
:13:08. > :13:12.wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the
:13:13. > :13:17.last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can
:13:18. > :13:22.to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they
:13:23. > :13:33.invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined
:13:34. > :13:40.now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not
:13:41. > :13:42.without problems, they took place during the campaign period and
:13:43. > :13:49.disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people
:13:50. > :13:53.getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be
:13:54. > :13:58.helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of
:13:59. > :14:04.the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is
:14:05. > :14:09.not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be
:14:10. > :14:14.negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should
:14:15. > :14:22.have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that
:14:23. > :14:28.will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,
:14:29. > :14:35.the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election
:14:36. > :14:45.campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than
:14:46. > :14:49.local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically
:14:50. > :14:55.important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for
:14:56. > :14:59.example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this
:15:00. > :15:03.Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the
:15:04. > :15:10.previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?
:15:11. > :15:19.Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.
:15:20. > :15:23.There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local
:15:24. > :15:29.elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what
:15:30. > :15:33.you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.
:15:34. > :15:37.But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know
:15:38. > :15:42.that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --
:15:43. > :15:50.Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so
:15:51. > :15:53.people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does
:15:54. > :15:57.the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already
:15:58. > :16:04.promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it
:16:05. > :16:09.before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really
:16:10. > :16:13.trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless
:16:14. > :16:18.you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an
:16:19. > :16:22.in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at
:16:23. > :16:28.which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It
:16:29. > :16:31.is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,
:16:32. > :16:36.that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was
:16:37. > :16:44.no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There
:16:45. > :16:52.was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that
:16:53. > :16:57.up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will
:16:58. > :17:01.have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty
:17:02. > :17:06.had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a
:17:07. > :17:12.referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,
:17:13. > :17:16.having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our
:17:17. > :17:22.relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in
:17:23. > :17:27.this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,
:17:28. > :17:30.most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not
:17:31. > :17:38.what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing
:17:39. > :17:42.in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more
:17:43. > :17:45.of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and
:17:46. > :17:51.people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been
:17:52. > :17:55.looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are
:17:56. > :18:02.considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message
:18:03. > :18:12.here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are
:18:13. > :18:16.likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making
:18:17. > :18:20.these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us
:18:21. > :18:26.further away from returning powers to this country, further from a
:18:27. > :18:29.referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,
:18:30. > :18:34.and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,
:18:35. > :18:38.and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so
:18:39. > :18:42.over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people
:18:43. > :18:47.considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do
:18:48. > :18:51.not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to
:18:52. > :18:56.tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years
:18:57. > :19:01.ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU
:19:02. > :19:05.budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us
:19:06. > :19:09.into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a
:19:10. > :19:14.referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe
:19:15. > :19:17.it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising
:19:18. > :19:20.and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote
:19:21. > :19:25.Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in
:19:26. > :19:30.Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission
:19:31. > :19:35.has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and
:19:36. > :19:41.vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It
:19:42. > :19:45.goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed
:19:46. > :19:49.that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said
:19:50. > :19:54.they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they
:19:55. > :20:00.regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.
:20:01. > :20:09.What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step
:20:10. > :20:17.further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When
:20:18. > :20:23.people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the
:20:24. > :20:27.MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above
:20:28. > :20:32.left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not
:20:33. > :20:36.delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote
:20:37. > :20:40.in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to
:20:41. > :20:46.the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this
:20:47. > :20:49.economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared
:20:50. > :20:57.to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active
:20:58. > :21:02.Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued
:21:03. > :21:05.by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country
:21:06. > :21:13.meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last
:21:14. > :21:18.weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and
:21:19. > :21:23.local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who
:21:24. > :21:30.says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of
:21:31. > :21:39.say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,
:21:40. > :21:45.you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to
:21:46. > :21:51.Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you
:21:52. > :21:55.must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your
:21:56. > :22:00.members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time
:22:01. > :22:05.travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,
:22:06. > :22:10.where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps
:22:11. > :22:15.pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting
:22:16. > :22:21.Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,
:22:22. > :22:24.Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a
:22:25. > :22:33.YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,
:22:34. > :22:39.Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP
:22:40. > :22:46.4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?
:22:47. > :22:50.Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local
:22:51. > :22:53.elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say
:22:54. > :22:57.what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local
:22:58. > :23:01.elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried
:23:02. > :23:05.to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not
:23:06. > :23:09.unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a
:23:10. > :23:12.European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has
:23:13. > :23:15.been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example
:23:16. > :23:21.every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000
:23:22. > :23:24.back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We
:23:25. > :23:30.are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to
:23:31. > :23:43.tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop
:23:44. > :23:53.banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last
:23:54. > :23:58.general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't
:23:59. > :24:03.win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it
:24:04. > :24:09.doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out
:24:10. > :24:14.to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the
:24:15. > :24:16.voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before
:24:17. > :24:24.the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point
:24:25. > :24:28.that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a
:24:29. > :24:33.politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over
:24:34. > :24:39.a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look
:24:40. > :24:43.at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket
:24:44. > :24:48.case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting
:24:49. > :24:53.every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the
:24:54. > :24:56.developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the
:24:57. > :25:01.people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the
:25:02. > :25:04.right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car
:25:05. > :25:09.keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a
:25:10. > :25:14.pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting
:25:15. > :25:21.through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this
:25:22. > :25:26.morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do
:25:27. > :25:32.you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any
:25:33. > :25:40.kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,
:25:41. > :25:53.expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants
:25:54. > :25:57.to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He
:25:58. > :26:10.wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there
:26:11. > :26:13.be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people
:26:14. > :26:19.have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been
:26:20. > :26:24.very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests
:26:25. > :26:28.that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American
:26:29. > :26:33.project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to
:26:34. > :26:37.be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,
:26:38. > :26:40.thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal
:26:41. > :26:44.Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row
:26:45. > :26:50.with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with
:26:51. > :26:54.Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on
:26:55. > :26:58.a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the
:26:59. > :27:02.train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local
:27:03. > :27:08.government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the
:27:09. > :27:13.Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have
:27:14. > :27:18.prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain
:27:19. > :27:22.in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of
:27:23. > :27:30.many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he
:27:31. > :27:35.is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in
:27:36. > :27:41.making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting
:27:42. > :27:44.role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British
:27:45. > :27:51.criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted
:27:52. > :27:54.prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out
:27:55. > :28:01.everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,
:28:02. > :28:06.being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find
:28:07. > :28:09.you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because
:28:10. > :28:13.you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that
:28:14. > :28:18.you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost
:28:19. > :28:22.impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of
:28:23. > :28:27.Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,
:28:28. > :28:32.inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has
:28:33. > :28:36.demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a
:28:37. > :28:42.lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you
:28:43. > :28:46.and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime
:28:47. > :28:52.Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,
:28:53. > :28:58.I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from
:28:59. > :29:05.Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?
:29:06. > :29:10.No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where
:29:11. > :29:19.has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the
:29:20. > :29:23.morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any
:29:24. > :29:27.kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This
:29:28. > :29:34.is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems
:29:35. > :29:38.pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full
:29:39. > :29:43.bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is
:29:44. > :29:53.taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a
:29:54. > :29:57.health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for
:29:58. > :30:01.dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick
:30:02. > :30:06.Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has
:30:07. > :30:12.to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting
:30:13. > :30:22.that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of
:30:23. > :30:26.warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by
:30:27. > :30:36.catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about
:30:37. > :30:42.knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the
:30:43. > :30:46.Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses
:30:47. > :30:52.share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing
:30:53. > :30:55.to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the
:30:56. > :31:04.week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most
:31:05. > :31:08.likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can
:31:09. > :31:13.guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been
:31:14. > :31:19.confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great
:31:20. > :31:25.for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride
:31:26. > :31:31.home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce
:31:32. > :31:37.joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely
:31:38. > :31:42.to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what
:31:43. > :31:46.would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe
:31:47. > :31:52.credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the
:31:53. > :31:58.most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think
:31:59. > :32:06.the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions
:32:07. > :32:10.that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as
:32:11. > :32:14.the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on
:32:15. > :32:21.about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do
:32:22. > :32:32.think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely
:32:33. > :32:36.hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out
:32:37. > :32:42.there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried
:32:43. > :32:47.that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we
:32:48. > :32:51.want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you
:32:52. > :32:58.lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will
:32:59. > :33:01.be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been
:33:02. > :33:09.spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the
:33:10. > :33:14.European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten
:33:15. > :33:20.years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership
:33:21. > :33:24.and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every
:33:25. > :33:29.developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe
:33:30. > :33:34.may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are
:33:35. > :33:41.going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence
:33:42. > :33:46.to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is
:33:47. > :33:52.something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004
:33:53. > :33:57.manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job
:33:58. > :34:05.losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?
:34:06. > :34:12.Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any
:34:13. > :34:16.rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never
:34:17. > :34:23.recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had
:34:24. > :34:28.not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...
:34:29. > :34:34.Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy
:34:35. > :34:39.is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control
:34:40. > :34:49.over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have
:34:50. > :34:53.always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It
:34:54. > :35:00.hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We
:35:01. > :35:05.recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are
:35:06. > :35:13.not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I
:35:14. > :35:19.didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an
:35:20. > :35:27.entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there
:35:28. > :35:32.will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we
:35:33. > :35:36.are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get
:35:37. > :35:42.this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of
:35:43. > :35:46.jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the
:35:47. > :35:52.Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of
:35:53. > :35:57.deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it
:35:58. > :36:01.out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are
:36:02. > :36:06.working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery
:36:07. > :36:11.for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that
:36:12. > :36:16.have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would
:36:17. > :36:24.the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You
:36:25. > :36:28.have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling
:36:29. > :36:32.to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough
:36:33. > :36:38.single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,
:36:39. > :36:43.Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what
:36:44. > :36:48.you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by
:36:49. > :36:55.consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be
:36:56. > :37:00.transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You
:37:01. > :37:03.have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more
:37:04. > :37:10.centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would
:37:11. > :37:14.join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all
:37:15. > :37:21.member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not
:37:22. > :37:27.envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud
:37:28. > :37:34.party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?
:37:35. > :37:38.Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is
:37:39. > :37:43.dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are
:37:44. > :37:47.not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the
:37:48. > :37:50.instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to
:37:51. > :38:00.withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you
:38:01. > :38:04.want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it
:38:05. > :38:09.out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the
:38:10. > :38:17.general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the
:38:18. > :38:24.middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's
:38:25. > :38:28.the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a
:38:29. > :38:33.deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of
:38:34. > :38:39.it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which
:38:40. > :38:42.is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds
:38:43. > :38:46.and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the
:38:47. > :38:50.same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with
:38:51. > :38:58.others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,
:38:59. > :39:01.their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We
:39:02. > :39:16.Hello once again from the Midlands. now.
:39:17. > :39:20.Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And with almost
:39:21. > :39:23.exactly a year to go to the general election, we're joined today by
:39:24. > :39:26.three new candidates hoping to enter Parliament. Lucy Allan,
:39:27. > :39:33.Conservative, will be aiming to overturn a Labour majority of under
:39:34. > :39:36.1,000 at Telford in Shropshire. For Labour, Lynnette Kelly hopes to
:39:37. > :39:38.deprive the Conservatives of their 3,500 majority in Warwick and
:39:39. > :39:41.Leamington, while the Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Adams has to
:39:42. > :39:56.contend with an 11,000 Conservative majority in Stratford`on`Avon.
:39:57. > :39:59.No wonder this year's party conference season is billed as the
:40:00. > :40:03.big opportunity for the parties to tune up their messages for next May!
:40:04. > :40:07.But could the Conservatives' main event in Birmingham be the last big
:40:08. > :40:13.party conference in the city for the foreseeable future?Marketing
:40:14. > :40:17.Birmingham tell me it could well be. All but 5% of its ?1.5 million
:40:18. > :40:21.events budget is being spent on hosting the Conservatives in
:40:22. > :40:24.September. The deal was signed off three years ago by the then
:40:25. > :40:31.Conservative council leader Mike, now Lord Whitby. He says each
:40:32. > :40:34.conference earns ?20 million for the local economy and warns the field
:40:35. > :40:43.will now be wide open for rival cities, like Manchester and
:40:44. > :40:49.Liverpool. It does seem like a sort of false
:40:50. > :40:54.economy, given the kudos it brings into the region and the investment
:40:55. > :40:59.in the local economy. You have to look at it from Birmingham
:41:00. > :41:07.council's point of view. 95% of their budget going on one conference
:41:08. > :41:15.seems disproportionate. If the return is ?20 million, there needs
:41:16. > :41:19.to be a balancing act. But local businesses that benefit should also
:41:20. > :41:26.be putting money in to attracting these ventures. What do you say to a
:41:27. > :41:33.Labour Birmingham MP who says it adds insult to injury that a
:41:34. > :41:41.government is in effect getting a subsidy to holds its conference
:41:42. > :41:45.here? You have to ask what an international conference centre is
:41:46. > :41:52.for? There will be cities queueing up to have that boost in business,
:41:53. > :41:58.tourism and the economy. In Telford, we have the international centre
:41:59. > :42:05.that hosts cheerleaders, Nigel Farage. I am sure we would like to
:42:06. > :42:09.pose the Tory party as well. The Liberal Democrats were in coalition
:42:10. > :42:20.in Birmingham three years ago. Does this matter? It definitely does. All
:42:21. > :42:26.of the parties have experienced a decline in people being able to
:42:27. > :42:33.participate. Birmingham is so centralised. When I went to a party
:42:34. > :42:44.conference in Birmingham, it was fantastic. I just think there has
:42:45. > :42:46.got to be management also between investing and bringing investment
:42:47. > :42:49.into the area. Still to come: At least there's one
:42:50. > :42:53.other party conference that'll be coming to Birmingham this autumn.
:42:54. > :42:56.The Greens currently have more seats on more Midlands councils than ever
:42:57. > :42:59.before. Now they're carrying the fight against HS2 out on the local
:43:00. > :43:08.and European election campaign trail. We'll have more on this a
:43:09. > :43:12.little later in the programme. It's one of the curiosities of this
:43:13. > :43:17.era of coalition politics: Two entirely separate sets of target
:43:18. > :43:19.seats on the go at the same time. With Labour and the Conservatives
:43:20. > :43:23.both short of a Commons majority, each requires seats from the other.
:43:24. > :43:28.Altogether, nearly 30 local marginals could change hands one way
:43:29. > :43:31.or another. Redditch is one place which swings more than most and
:43:32. > :43:36.there's one place in Redditch which swings more than most... In
:43:37. > :43:41.Redditch! Here's our BBC Hereford and Worcester political reporter,
:43:42. > :43:44.Matthew Bone. Across the West Midlands, the
:43:45. > :43:48.election campaign is coming to the boil, nowhere more so than here in
:43:49. > :43:52.the Winyates area of Redditch. When it comes to swing voters, this place
:43:53. > :43:59.has pretty much got the market wrapped up. There has been Liberal,
:44:00. > :44:03.Labour, Conservative, BNP. It's very diverse. We've got people from
:44:04. > :44:07.everywhere, where everybody's... You know, they contribute to the local
:44:08. > :44:11.community in a positive way, really. And, you know, business is... Touch
:44:12. > :44:19.wood, it's good. So, yeah. You know, you've just got to look forward and
:44:20. > :44:22.look ahead. Labour's MP was Jacqui Smith until 2010 but, with the
:44:23. > :44:26.expenses scandal at its height, she lost her seat to the Conservatives'
:44:27. > :44:29.Karen Lumley, who took it with a larger than average swing of over
:44:30. > :44:33.9%. But Labour re`took the council a couple of years ago here, and this
:44:34. > :44:36.time around, they've wheeled out the Shadow Cabinet big guns as they try
:44:37. > :44:39.to take more seats off the Conservatives and build some
:44:40. > :44:42.momentum ahead of next year's general election. But there are
:44:43. > :44:45.plenty of other candidates in the field, including UKIP, who had their
:44:46. > :44:49.own county councillor here until recently. Could they have an impact
:44:50. > :44:53.this time around? This idea that Mr Cameron can renegotiate the European
:44:54. > :44:56.Union to mould it to its own liking... Economically, Redditch has
:44:57. > :44:58.struggled in recent times but unemployment is falling. Inspire
:44:59. > :45:04.Community Training helps the long`time unemployed back into work.
:45:05. > :45:11.Irene used the company to help her get a job. It is hard to get work
:45:12. > :45:14.round here. If they go on courses, like they do here at Inspire, then
:45:15. > :45:18.that'll bring them more work, I suppose, if it helps them carry on.
:45:19. > :45:21.Just round the corner, Mad Malc has been sitting down with customers for
:45:22. > :45:25.the last seven years. He's not surprised that people here are so
:45:26. > :45:29.quick to change their vote. I think a lot of people have come to the
:45:30. > :45:32.conclusion that they voted for this person, this person's got in, they
:45:33. > :45:39.didn't do what they said they were going to do, it didn't work out.
:45:40. > :45:43.They'll try the next person. That doesn't work out. They'll try the
:45:44. > :45:50.next person. It's the old adage if it doesn't work, try something new.
:45:51. > :45:53.I've had a look on the boards and it looks like there's a couple of roses
:45:54. > :45:57.that could be used for Labour or a bird that you could have for the
:45:58. > :46:01.Liberal Democrats! Have you ever had anybody come in and ask ,"Can I have
:46:02. > :46:05.a political tattoo?" Er... No. I think a lot of them will probably
:46:06. > :46:08.find out they'll be regretting it at a later stage in their life.
:46:09. > :46:11.Redditch is one of around 30 key marginal seats here in the West
:46:12. > :46:15.Midlands, and whoever makes their mark this time round stands a good
:46:16. > :46:22.chance of doing well in the next general election. And that's the
:46:23. > :46:28.real needle contest. He chickened out! But while we're in
:46:29. > :46:31.election mode, my latest blog post about this month's European polls
:46:32. > :46:37.reveals the key contest in the West Midlands constituency will be the
:46:38. > :46:40.race for seventh place! That's with apologies to those of you in
:46:41. > :46:52.Gloucestershire who have your own election for South West England. The
:46:53. > :46:56.experience in Redditch and across these Midlands marginals is that you
:46:57. > :47:00.say the plan is working but that is not coming through in terms of
:47:01. > :47:06.people feeling better off or their voting intentions. People I speak to
:47:07. > :47:11.do tell me their budgets are stretched and they are still
:47:12. > :47:17.struggling and what we have to look at is the evidence. The evidence I
:47:18. > :47:25.would point to is the Asda income Tracker, the Bank of England monthly
:47:26. > :47:30.business reports, the ONS... It is how it feels on the ground but that
:47:31. > :47:35.translates into how people are actually acting, and if you look at
:47:36. > :47:40.how people are behaving, retail sales are up, they are out
:47:41. > :47:47.shopping, retail parks in Telford are so busy. You will go into battle
:47:48. > :47:53.in Warwick and Lymington on the basis that people are worse off than
:47:54. > :47:56.they were in the general election. Momentum is heading towards Lucy,
:47:57. > :48:04.economic league. People are saying to me they are not feeling better.
:48:05. > :48:10.Prices of housing is going up, rents are going up, housing in Warwick is
:48:11. > :48:13.getting unaffordable for the vast majority of people. If you don't
:48:14. > :48:17.earn an awful lot of money, you don't have a hope of buying a
:48:18. > :48:21.property there. The jobs market has picked up and not enough. Young
:48:22. > :48:26.people are still struggling to find work and people have to move out of
:48:27. > :48:30.the area for employment. This is the conversation that is defining the
:48:31. > :48:34.approach to the general election. If you look at the numbers, with only
:48:35. > :48:41.three MPs in the whole of the region, it is a 2`party fight in a
:48:42. > :48:48.region that has been stony ground for you for many years. Those
:48:49. > :48:53.regions where we do have Liberal Democrat MPs certainly feel the
:48:54. > :48:57.difference. They work extremely hard. What people are starting to
:48:58. > :49:03.realise is that Labour can go on and on about how people are stretched,
:49:04. > :49:07.but actually, if they really cared about hard`working people, we
:49:08. > :49:12.wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. You don't care about
:49:13. > :49:17.hard`working people by driving us into debt. The Liberal Democrats are
:49:18. > :49:24.taking difficult decisions into government, GDP has risen for the
:49:25. > :49:30.fifth consecutive quarter. But the Tories get the credit. We get the
:49:31. > :49:37.credit for the ?800 backing the pockets of of working people. If you
:49:38. > :49:42.look at what local authorities are doing, it is the Labour council is
:49:43. > :49:48.working hard to make sure local funds benefit from council contracts
:49:49. > :49:55.and apprenticeship guarantees are written into contracts. That is what
:49:56. > :49:59.Labour councils deliver. Lynette mentions Labour councils. There are
:50:00. > :50:06.lots of Labour cities. Margaret Thatcher said your party needed to
:50:07. > :50:12.get back into it. I can think back to Edgbaston, Selly Oak, North
:50:13. > :50:21.fields. It's a no go area for you now. It's a serious problem. The
:50:22. > :50:30.cities will beware this election is won or lost. Getting back the vote
:50:31. > :50:37.there will be critical to success. The economy will be the battle
:50:38. > :50:40.ground issue. We have seen jobseeker's allowance claimants are
:50:41. > :50:48.down. We have seen the lowest unemployment in Telford for five
:50:49. > :50:54.years. The facts and evidence show that people will feel better off by
:50:55. > :51:02.2015. Sheik of the head by Lynette, I saw. Everything George Osborne
:51:03. > :51:09.promised us in 2010 hasn't happened. The recovery of the economy has been
:51:10. > :51:15.far slower than he said. It is clear that Labour still can't be trusted
:51:16. > :51:24.on the economy and the Conservatives can't be, either. We are setting the
:51:25. > :51:28.scene for the campaign. On the local campaign trail, the
:51:29. > :51:33.Greens are on a roll, with more councillors in more authorities than
:51:34. > :51:35.ever before: 20 in ten different authorities, including Will
:51:36. > :51:38.Duckworth of Dudley, who is also their national Deputy Leader, their
:51:39. > :51:41.opposition to high`speed rail played strongly in last year's county
:51:42. > :51:44.elections. Our BBC Coventry and Warwickshire political reporter,
:51:45. > :51:52.Sian Grzsezczyk, asks if it'll do so again this time.
:51:53. > :51:56.Heath Park in Chelmsley Wood, just one of the many battle grounds along
:51:57. > :51:59.the proposed HS2 line from London to Birmingham. The Greens say their
:52:00. > :52:13.opposition to it is winning them votes. We could become even the
:52:14. > :52:25.official opposition. We could do so much more. We could be picking up
:52:26. > :52:29.more seats. At the moment, the Greens have 20 councillors across
:52:30. > :52:41.ten West Midlands council `` councils. Last week, MPs voted
:52:42. > :52:43.overwhelmingly in favour of the scheme, which is now one step
:52:44. > :52:47.closer, but if our highly unscientific straw poll is anything
:52:48. > :52:59.to go by, support in Chelmsley Wood is thin on the ground. I don't think
:53:00. > :53:03.we need it. It is destroying people's lives. It's a total waste
:53:04. > :53:06.of money. The Greens are hoping the issue will also play well in the
:53:07. > :53:10.European elections. Last time out, they came sixth in the West
:53:11. > :53:13.Midlands, behind the BNP, a long way off securing an MEP. The party's
:53:14. > :53:23.Deputy Leader is hoping for better this time around. It all cut swathes
:53:24. > :53:26.through the landscape of this country and there is no way we could
:53:27. > :53:33.mitigate against the environmental damage, not to mention the cost of
:53:34. > :53:39.?3000 or more for each family in the country just so if you businessmen
:53:40. > :53:42.can get to London a few minutes quicker. The Green Party holds its
:53:43. > :53:45.conference in Birmingham this September. The question is, will the
:53:46. > :53:48.annual get`together see them welcoming a clutch of new
:53:49. > :53:50.councillors and maybe an MEP from the West Midlands?
:53:51. > :54:00.And next week, we'll examine the BNP's prospects here in this month's
:54:01. > :54:05.elections. It strikes me that HS2 is one of those areas where the Green
:54:06. > :54:09.Party is making great strides in cornering your traditional share of
:54:10. > :54:17.the market, bearing in mind that we saw a poll that places the Liberal
:54:18. > :54:22.Democrats behind the Greens. They are doing what they have done in
:54:23. > :54:28.other areas and making political capital. I did think it has been
:54:29. > :54:41.thought through. But you are against Aegis to yourself. `` HS2. We think
:54:42. > :54:46.it is necessary, not just for speed but capacity. I am interested in
:54:47. > :54:50.local infrastructure for trains. It is ridiculous you can't get directly
:54:51. > :55:00.from Stratford to Birmingham International. I will put the
:55:01. > :55:07.residence of the area I am representing first and foremost.
:55:08. > :55:18.Sounds like a definite maybe! What about you? You are against HS2. Like
:55:19. > :55:23.Liz, we have got to say, we need rail infrastructure in the
:55:24. > :55:29.Midlands. It is ridiculous that you can't get the train from Stratford
:55:30. > :55:38.to Birmingham. It will depend what is in the bill. It's not a mystery!
:55:39. > :55:47.There are many petitions coming in, to trying get changes in that bill.
:55:48. > :55:52.All the parties are supposedly for HS2. Is this a complete room for
:55:53. > :56:00.rebels here? A decision has been made. Let's get on with the job. I
:56:01. > :56:02.don't want to wait until 2026 to see improvements in rail
:56:03. > :56:09.infrastructure. Capacity has always been an issue for us here. It's not
:56:10. > :56:14.about speed. I want to see increased capacity so that we can have our
:56:15. > :56:19.direct links to Telford. At the moment, we cannot get to London
:56:20. > :56:23.without stopping at Wolverhampton, sometimes for half an hour. That is
:56:24. > :56:29.a major barrier for business, jobs and growth. Shropshire business
:56:30. > :56:33.people have put their weight behind increased infrastructure. We have
:56:34. > :56:41.heard what Ed Balls has had to say about HS2. He revealed himself not
:56:42. > :56:45.to be a particular fan. Would`be first act of his role as Chancellor
:56:46. > :56:51.be to strike his pen through the whole thing? I don't think you will
:56:52. > :56:58.cancel the project. He has said there cannot be a blank check for
:56:59. > :57:01.HS2. We have got to make sure it is delivering the economic benefits
:57:02. > :57:06.promised and the case has not proved that the economic benefits will be
:57:07. > :57:11.delivered because logically, you will not go from Warwick and Leeming
:57:12. > :57:16.ten North for half an hour to a railway station to get on a train to
:57:17. > :57:22.go to London. At the moment, you can get to London faster if you go to a
:57:23. > :57:25.local railway station. These trains would presumably be more
:57:26. > :57:34.environmentally friendly than older trains. Liberal Democrats have been
:57:35. > :57:41.100% in favour of the new HS2, but what we have also done is put ?16
:57:42. > :57:45.billion in two improved rail infrastructure.
:57:46. > :57:49.Now our regular round`up of the political week in the Midlands in 60
:57:50. > :57:51.seconds. It's a campaign special today, brought to us by our BBC
:57:52. > :58:00.Shropshire political reporter, Joanne Gallacher.
:58:01. > :58:03.Lin Golding is plotting a comeback as a district councillor in
:58:04. > :58:08.Newcastle`under`Lyme at the age of 81. She was Labour MP for the town
:58:09. > :58:12.for 15 years before entering the Lords.
:58:13. > :58:15.The We Demand a Referendum Now Party launched its European election
:58:16. > :58:23.manifesto. Their lead candidate is sitting West Midlands MEP Nikki
:58:24. > :58:26.Sinclaire, formerly of UKIP. By re`electing me, people know they
:58:27. > :58:28.will get someone that represents them.
:58:29. > :58:32.Another former UKIP MEP, Mike Nattrass, is seeking re`election.
:58:33. > :58:42.His An Independence from Europe Party is fielding candidates in all
:58:43. > :58:45.of England's Euro constituencies. We should leave because domination from
:58:46. > :58:48.Europe isn't what we need at all. As well as visiting Redditch, Shadow
:58:49. > :58:50.Health Secretary Andy Burnham dropped in to Walsall to launch
:58:51. > :58:53.Labour's local election campaign. And we end where we started, in
:58:54. > :58:56.Newcastle`under`Lyme, where none other than the Prime Minister
:58:57. > :59:05.himself was on hand to get the Conservative campaign underway.
:59:06. > :59:08.And we'll be hearing from some of the other parties who are running in
:59:09. > :59:19.the European and local election campaign trails over the next two
:59:20. > :59:24.weeks. David Cameron there in Newcastle. We heard Andrew Neil
:59:25. > :59:29.saying he managed to talk a great deal about Europe. He has got a
:59:30. > :59:36.point, hasn't he? He said your party won't have a referendum. What we are
:59:37. > :59:45.saying is we need to make sure the EU has reforms and we want to work
:59:46. > :59:48.with the EU... There needs to be a referendum if there are significant
:59:49. > :59:57.changes to the powers of the European Union. But if nothing is
:59:58. > :00:03.changing, there is no need to have a referendum. We need reform of the
:00:04. > :00:06.EU. In east to stop focusing so much on agricultural subsidies and look
:00:07. > :00:21.instead at job creation and protection. David Cameron shows
:00:22. > :00:28.signs of taking on UK I'd `` UKIP. That's right. If we look at the
:00:29. > :00:33.polls. `` polls, UKIP is surging ahead. The question that will be
:00:34. > :00:48.asked on the 22nd is very different to that which will be asked in 2015.
:00:49. > :00:52.If you put your take in the box, it is because you are making a
:00:53. > :00:57.statement that you are sending to the political classes that you want
:00:58. > :01:02.to be heard. We heard at the top of this programme the threat to your
:01:03. > :01:17.party of oblivion in these elections. It's a tough fight for
:01:18. > :01:29.you to avoid a whitewash. No other party has... The politics UKIP is
:01:30. > :01:33.pedalling around is very dangerous. We have had no silencing throughout
:01:34. > :01:37.this programme today! My thanks to Lucy, Lynnette and
:01:38. > :01:39.Elizabeth. Next Sunday, we'll have the first of our special programmes
:01:40. > :01:45.concentrating on the European elections. For the next two weeks,
:01:46. > :01:50.I'll be joined live in the studio by candidates from each of the four
:01:51. > :01:53.main parties here. And, of course, we'll also be hearing from the six
:01:54. > :01:58.other parties fielding full slates of seven candidates each. You can
:01:59. > :02:02.see them all for yourself on the BBC News Politics website.
:02:03. > :02:08.on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,
:02:09. > :02:15.London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is
:02:16. > :02:19.not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report
:02:20. > :02:22.from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning
:02:23. > :02:24.programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,
:02:25. > :02:30.emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea
:02:31. > :02:34.leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are
:02:35. > :02:44.predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller
:02:45. > :02:47.before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of
:02:48. > :02:54.the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.
:02:55. > :02:59.But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this
:03:00. > :03:06.off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until
:03:07. > :03:12.at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I
:03:13. > :03:17.think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.
:03:18. > :03:26.Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the
:03:27. > :03:30.brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year
:03:31. > :03:37.until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze
:03:38. > :03:43.into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election
:03:44. > :03:51.in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the
:03:52. > :03:56.Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you
:03:57. > :04:03.think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.
:04:04. > :04:08.I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting
:04:09. > :04:16.on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off
:04:17. > :04:22.the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another
:04:23. > :04:29.liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in
:04:30. > :04:35.touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half
:04:36. > :04:39.of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go
:04:40. > :04:44.to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a
:04:45. > :04:50.hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go
:04:51. > :04:54.with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he
:04:55. > :05:02.has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much
:05:03. > :05:06.further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the
:05:07. > :05:10.leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David
:05:11. > :05:14.Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister
:05:15. > :05:18.as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult
:05:19. > :05:23.them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a
:05:24. > :05:29.coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal
:05:30. > :05:34.Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further
:05:35. > :05:41.away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat
:05:42. > :05:47.point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the
:05:48. > :05:50.last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did
:05:51. > :06:00.you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five
:06:01. > :06:07.formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then
:06:08. > :06:18.there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It
:06:19. > :06:23.might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If
:06:24. > :06:27.you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party
:06:28. > :06:33.should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium
:06:34. > :06:39.next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.
:06:40. > :06:44.David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they
:06:45. > :06:49.happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes
:06:50. > :06:54.they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick
:06:55. > :06:59.Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so
:07:00. > :07:03.the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas
:07:04. > :07:08.should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to
:07:09. > :07:12.do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general
:07:13. > :07:15.election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David
:07:16. > :07:22.Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week
:07:23. > :07:27.campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one
:07:28. > :07:31.debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it
:07:32. > :07:36.will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and
:07:37. > :07:41.he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are
:07:42. > :07:45.coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in
:07:46. > :07:52.the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a
:07:53. > :07:57.strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor
:07:58. > :08:03.third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come
:08:04. > :08:07.forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the
:08:08. > :08:10.media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to
:08:11. > :08:19.the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for
:08:20. > :08:23.them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.
:08:24. > :08:29.These are the most interesting elections we have had for some
:08:30. > :08:33.time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I
:08:34. > :08:37.think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we
:08:38. > :08:43.were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things
:08:44. > :08:48.down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real
:08:49. > :08:53.chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is
:08:54. > :09:00.not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he
:09:01. > :09:15.will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they
:09:16. > :09:22.come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as
:09:23. > :09:26.if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be
:09:27. > :09:31.some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the
:09:32. > :09:35.referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour
:09:36. > :09:39.sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you
:09:40. > :09:44.can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to
:09:45. > :09:50.it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad
:09:51. > :09:53.Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the
:09:54. > :09:58.renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even
:09:59. > :10:06.need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David
:10:07. > :10:11.Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local
:10:12. > :10:13.elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,
:10:14. > :10:20.at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a
:10:21. > :10:26.look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not
:10:27. > :10:31.go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.
:10:32. > :10:49.I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I
:10:50. > :10:52.haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister
:10:53. > :11:00.has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't
:11:01. > :11:05.remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly
:11:06. > :11:11.in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's
:11:12. > :11:16.questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad
:11:17. > :11:22.blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and
:11:23. > :11:28.the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the
:11:29. > :11:31.speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker
:11:32. > :11:36.who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the
:11:37. > :11:41.executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed
:11:42. > :11:45.the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the
:11:46. > :11:52.importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's
:11:53. > :11:58.chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister
:11:59. > :12:02.'s questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions
:12:03. > :12:09.take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be
:12:10. > :12:16.surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is
:12:17. > :12:23.quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour
:12:24. > :12:28.activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a
:12:29. > :12:33.difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon
:12:34. > :12:39.as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and
:12:40. > :12:45.David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each
:12:46. > :12:52.other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily
:12:53. > :12:56.politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do
:12:57. > :13:01.some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of
:13:02. > :13:05.him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of
:13:06. > :13:10.that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and
:13:11. > :13:15.immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is
:13:16. > :13:20.pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is
:13:21. > :13:23.finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the
:13:24. > :13:28.speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management
:13:29. > :13:31.skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC
:13:32. > :13:35.Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank
:13:36. > :13:38.holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if
:13:39. > :13:43.it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.