18/05/2014

:00:38. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

:00:46. > :00:49.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

:00:50. > :00:53.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

:00:54. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

:00:59. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

:01:03. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

:01:07. > :01:12.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

:01:13. > :01:23.campaign trail, he has been asking all

:01:24. > :01:27.this week, a last look at the euro elections, and the 50th anniversary

:01:28. > :01:37.of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,

:01:38. > :01:47.with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,

:01:48. > :01:50.Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for

:01:51. > :01:54.everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of

:01:55. > :01:59.Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big

:02:00. > :02:02.one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local

:02:03. > :02:07.elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes. But

:02:08. > :02:12.that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

:02:13. > :02:17.examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

:02:18. > :02:38.local elections and European Parliament elections.

:02:39. > :02:46.These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

:02:47. > :02:51.elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

:02:52. > :02:55.across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

:02:56. > :02:59.the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

:03:00. > :03:04.closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

:03:05. > :03:08.in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

:03:09. > :03:12.outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

:03:13. > :03:16.wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

:03:17. > :03:20.difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

:03:21. > :03:24.which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

:03:25. > :03:30.another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

:03:31. > :03:36.slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

:03:37. > :03:40.but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

:03:41. > :03:46.ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

:03:47. > :03:50.Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

:03:51. > :03:53.share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

:03:54. > :03:58.and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

:03:59. > :04:02.whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

:04:03. > :04:06.Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

:04:07. > :04:11.from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

:04:12. > :04:14.year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

:04:15. > :04:20.significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

:04:21. > :04:24.worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

:04:25. > :04:28.have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

:04:29. > :04:33.saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

:04:34. > :04:42.Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

:04:43. > :04:52.resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

:04:53. > :04:55.incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

:04:56. > :05:00.but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

:05:01. > :05:04.to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

:05:05. > :05:09.Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

:05:10. > :05:16.makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

:05:17. > :05:19.whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

:05:20. > :05:24.event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

:05:25. > :05:30.Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

:05:31. > :05:34.national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

:05:35. > :05:38.historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

:05:39. > :05:45.Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

:05:46. > :05:51.populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

:05:52. > :05:54.ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

:05:55. > :05:58.election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

:05:59. > :06:01.they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

:06:02. > :06:08.fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

:06:09. > :06:13.We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

:06:14. > :06:16.She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

:06:17. > :06:21.earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

:06:22. > :06:26.does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

:06:27. > :06:33.think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

:06:34. > :06:37.around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

:06:38. > :06:41.elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

:06:42. > :06:44.looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,

:06:45. > :06:50.getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

:06:51. > :06:52.on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

:06:53. > :06:56.policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

:06:57. > :06:59.to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If

:07:00. > :07:10.we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

:07:11. > :07:15.You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

:07:16. > :07:18.stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

:07:19. > :07:24.members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I

:07:25. > :07:28.would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

:07:29. > :07:33.could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

:07:34. > :07:38.for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

:07:39. > :07:43.had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

:07:44. > :07:46.Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

:07:47. > :07:50.arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

:07:51. > :07:54.we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist,

:07:55. > :07:58.sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

:07:59. > :08:02.that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

:08:03. > :08:05.certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

:08:06. > :08:12.have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

:08:13. > :08:15.putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

:08:16. > :08:21.or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

:08:22. > :08:24.BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

:08:25. > :08:30.other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

:08:31. > :08:35.loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

:08:36. > :08:39.We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

:08:40. > :08:43.expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

:08:44. > :08:51.who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a

:08:52. > :08:55.huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the

:08:56. > :09:00.European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television

:09:01. > :09:07.and radio and in the newspapers. We are not a one-man band. Who runs

:09:08. > :09:12.your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he

:09:13. > :09:18.spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of

:09:19. > :09:21.the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have

:09:22. > :09:27.a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?

:09:28. > :09:31.The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the

:09:32. > :09:35.MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government

:09:36. > :09:40.Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your

:09:41. > :09:51.councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your

:09:52. > :09:54.local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe

:09:55. > :09:58.the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting

:09:59. > :10:04.for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on

:10:05. > :10:10.2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive -- a

:10:11. > :10:15.lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.

:10:16. > :10:18.But when it comes to individual, local issues, say, a particular

:10:19. > :10:24.development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will

:10:25. > :10:28.vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the

:10:29. > :10:34.borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out

:10:35. > :10:37.really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians

:10:38. > :10:41.to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of

:10:42. > :10:46.the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a

:10:47. > :10:50.referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then

:10:51. > :10:55.happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first

:10:56. > :11:00.time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am

:11:01. > :11:05.not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come

:11:06. > :11:08.out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But

:11:09. > :11:15.have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But

:11:16. > :11:18.certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world

:11:19. > :11:22.economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be

:11:23. > :11:27.able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is

:11:28. > :11:34.what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would

:11:35. > :11:39.be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,

:11:40. > :11:43.sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and

:11:44. > :11:49.valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that

:11:50. > :11:54.referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people

:11:55. > :12:00.'s... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.

:12:01. > :12:09.70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it

:12:10. > :12:13.would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that

:12:14. > :12:19.we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying

:12:20. > :12:23.to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will

:12:24. > :12:27.negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best

:12:28. > :12:31.for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our

:12:32. > :12:36.country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in

:12:37. > :12:40.next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom

:12:41. > :12:45.flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask

:12:46. > :12:55.questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in

:12:56. > :12:59.next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no

:13:00. > :13:03.good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I

:13:04. > :13:07.think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong

:13:08. > :13:10.with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different

:13:11. > :13:13.from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who

:13:14. > :13:19.wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is

:13:20. > :13:28.watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.

:13:29. > :13:36.Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a

:13:37. > :13:41.counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the

:13:42. > :13:47.campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight

:13:48. > :13:52.o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,

:13:53. > :13:57.how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit

:13:58. > :14:02.into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me

:14:03. > :14:09.luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in

:14:10. > :14:20.Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They

:14:21. > :14:26.have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up

:14:27. > :14:28.on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted

:14:29. > :14:32.of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of

:14:33. > :14:39.the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you

:14:40. > :14:47.had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,

:14:48. > :14:51.God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are

:14:52. > :14:57.heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss

:14:58. > :15:01.William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big

:15:02. > :15:06.questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are

:15:07. > :15:13.you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think

:15:14. > :15:18.something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what

:15:19. > :15:22.people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the

:15:23. > :15:34.flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.

:15:35. > :15:40.The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the

:15:41. > :15:48.Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the

:15:49. > :15:53.EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.

:15:54. > :16:00.This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?

:16:01. > :16:03.And chips are weirdly relevant at our next stop - the Green Party

:16:04. > :16:07.battle bus which is parked in Ashford in Kent. What is special

:16:08. > :16:16.about this vehicle? It runs from chip fat oil so it is more friendly

:16:17. > :16:24.to the environment. But boss was boiling. The next stop is Gillingham

:16:25. > :16:27.to see Labour. Labour have just hired Barack Obama's election guru

:16:28. > :16:34.David Axelrod to help them craft their message. What does David

:16:35. > :16:45.Axelrod know about the people who live on the street? I know the local

:16:46. > :16:48.details but you handle those. Ed Miliband and his party have had to

:16:49. > :16:51.handle a few dodgy opinion polls lately, prompting some leadership

:16:52. > :17:00.speculation from one activist. Who is your favourite Labour politician?

:17:01. > :17:08.Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're flagging. Final stop, Southwark in

:17:09. > :17:16.south London. We are in the right place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem

:17:17. > :17:22.taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning as the party of in. But are they in

:17:23. > :17:28.trouble? Your party president said the party would be wiped out and

:17:29. > :17:36.lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If he did say that, then no, that's not

:17:37. > :17:40.terribly helpful. And let's not forget, every London council is

:17:41. > :17:44.having elections too. I have 40 minutes to get back to the office in

:17:45. > :17:50.Westminster, which calls for something drastic, like this. After

:17:51. > :17:58.212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,

:17:59. > :18:10.12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.

:18:11. > :18:18.Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our

:18:19. > :18:22.studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in

:18:23. > :18:34.Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,

:18:35. > :18:38.looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest

:18:39. > :18:43.group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are

:18:44. > :18:49.recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only

:18:50. > :18:54.party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people

:18:55. > :19:00.over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands

:19:01. > :19:05.synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why

:19:06. > :19:10.should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the

:19:11. > :19:17.reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are

:19:18. > :19:23.stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives

:19:24. > :19:27.are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green

:19:28. > :19:32.belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed

:19:33. > :19:36.the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and

:19:37. > :19:42.saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that

:19:43. > :19:54.many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the

:19:55. > :19:59.polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are

:20:00. > :20:04.looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that

:20:05. > :20:08.we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society

:20:09. > :20:11.works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the

:20:12. > :20:19.limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want

:20:20. > :20:24.all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where

:20:25. > :20:29.would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?

:20:30. > :20:36.Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into

:20:37. > :20:41.a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for

:20:42. > :20:48.demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French

:20:49. > :20:56.nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across

:20:57. > :21:01.Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of

:21:02. > :21:05.German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays

:21:06. > :21:16.within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you

:21:17. > :21:27.have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to

:21:28. > :21:33.do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.

:21:34. > :21:38.At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal

:21:39. > :21:44.for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,

:21:45. > :21:48.way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would

:21:49. > :21:53.be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run

:21:54. > :21:59.Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the

:22:00. > :22:03.local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with

:22:04. > :22:08.factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups

:22:09. > :22:14.against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to

:22:15. > :22:19.bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and

:22:20. > :22:24.Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has

:22:25. > :22:31.become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results

:22:32. > :22:36.going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives

:22:37. > :22:43.in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life

:22:44. > :22:48.is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's

:22:49. > :22:53.election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold

:22:54. > :22:58.up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge

:22:59. > :23:06.progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve

:23:07. > :23:11.Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to

:23:12. > :23:15.change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side

:23:16. > :23:24.of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was

:23:25. > :23:29.in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to

:23:30. > :23:46.Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm

:23:47. > :24:16.joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and

:24:17. > :24:20.Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on

:24:21. > :24:25.the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.

:24:26. > :24:30.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would

:24:31. > :24:37.like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.

:24:38. > :24:41.Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European

:24:42. > :24:46.elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning

:24:47. > :24:53.the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,

:24:54. > :24:58.you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation

:24:59. > :25:03.from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are

:25:04. > :25:08.concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage

:25:09. > :25:12.only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the

:25:13. > :25:17.interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season

:25:18. > :25:23.change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member

:25:24. > :25:27.states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to

:25:28. > :25:34.children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to

:25:35. > :25:40.charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a

:25:41. > :25:44.flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will

:25:45. > :25:54.continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward

:25:55. > :25:59.policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will

:26:00. > :26:06.look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters

:26:07. > :26:11.decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP

:26:12. > :26:17.question is that they get support because they have never been in

:26:18. > :26:22.power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get

:26:23. > :26:31.into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is

:26:32. > :26:36.that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the

:26:37. > :26:45.case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made

:26:46. > :26:51.in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14

:26:52. > :27:00.out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously

:27:01. > :27:06.disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the

:27:07. > :27:10.European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,

:27:11. > :27:15.it will show that people don't really trust your promise about

:27:16. > :27:20.European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.

:27:21. > :27:25.What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal

:27:26. > :27:29.Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European

:27:30. > :27:34.treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European

:27:35. > :27:39.budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted

:27:40. > :27:48.against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying

:27:49. > :27:53.more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout

:27:54. > :27:58.fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same

:27:59. > :28:04.energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British

:28:05. > :28:12.people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a

:28:13. > :28:18.liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against

:28:19. > :28:23.him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost

:28:24. > :28:27.consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,

:28:28. > :28:33.but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the

:28:34. > :28:46.problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom

:28:47. > :28:49.tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work

:28:50. > :28:58.for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.

:28:59. > :29:07.So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be

:29:08. > :29:11.voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David

:29:12. > :29:17.Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is

:29:18. > :29:21.recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have

:29:22. > :29:25.been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British

:29:26. > :29:31.politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit

:29:32. > :29:35.everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this

:29:36. > :29:43.country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and

:29:44. > :29:46.we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours

:29:47. > :29:51.contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse

:29:52. > :30:01.your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It

:30:02. > :30:04.may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the

:30:05. > :30:09.European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people

:30:10. > :30:14.understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on

:30:15. > :30:18.Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In

:30:19. > :30:22.terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my

:30:23. > :30:26.community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.

:30:27. > :30:33.Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in

:30:34. > :30:38.office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour

:30:39. > :30:44.have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.

:30:45. > :30:48.One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that

:30:49. > :30:51.they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a

:30:52. > :30:56.government have delivered more affordable housing in this

:30:57. > :31:02.Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next

:31:03. > :31:11.three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall

:31:12. > :31:18.housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the

:31:19. > :31:21.Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.

:31:22. > :31:29.Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your

:31:30. > :31:34.last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting

:31:35. > :31:39.UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said

:31:40. > :31:45.that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a

:31:46. > :31:48.result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in

:31:49. > :31:53.the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure

:31:54. > :31:57.you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what

:31:58. > :32:01.is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on

:32:02. > :32:05.free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:32:06. > :32:09.the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about

:32:10. > :32:19.change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a

:32:20. > :32:23.referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should

:32:24. > :32:27.get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future

:32:28. > :32:31.lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which

:32:32. > :32:35.wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to

:32:36. > :32:42.the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.

:32:43. > :32:46.What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has

:32:47. > :32:50.been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime

:32:51. > :32:54.Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy

:32:55. > :32:59.prices, more childcare, policies which directly address the problems

:33:00. > :33:03.which people face. I think the public will realise that. UKIP

:33:04. > :33:08.offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used

:33:09. > :33:12.to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one, we

:33:13. > :33:16.have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between

:33:17. > :33:22.Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a

:33:23. > :33:27.referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously

:33:28. > :33:35.want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it

:33:36. > :33:38.would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until

:33:39. > :33:44.there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and

:33:45. > :33:51.then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to

:33:52. > :33:58.leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural

:33:59. > :34:03.partners with the Conservatives, but we do not want to be distracted at

:34:04. > :34:06.the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.

:34:07. > :34:14.Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been

:34:15. > :34:17.the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories

:34:18. > :34:22.want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.

:34:23. > :34:25.We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and

:34:26. > :34:29.many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.

:34:30. > :34:34.Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be

:34:35. > :34:40.willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was

:34:41. > :34:46.not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you

:34:47. > :34:56.agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am

:34:57. > :35:00.going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one

:35:01. > :35:04.of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on

:35:05. > :35:09.substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign

:35:10. > :35:14.for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am

:35:15. > :35:18.confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British

:35:19. > :35:22.people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial

:35:23. > :35:25.repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime

:35:26. > :35:31.Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been

:35:32. > :35:34.in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of

:35:35. > :35:41.hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that

:35:42. > :35:44.is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with

:35:45. > :35:51.complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we

:35:52. > :35:55.will be successful. Hilary Benn, what is the difference between your

:35:56. > :36:01.attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been

:36:02. > :36:06.very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further

:36:07. > :36:09.powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British

:36:10. > :36:15.people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our

:36:16. > :36:20.position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We

:36:21. > :36:26.would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in

:36:27. > :36:28.the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains

:36:29. > :36:36.and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want

:36:37. > :36:42.to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and

:36:43. > :36:49.electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that

:36:50. > :36:53.argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell

:36:54. > :37:01.my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --

:37:02. > :37:04.entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,

:37:05. > :37:08.because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union

:37:09. > :37:13.would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because

:37:14. > :37:25.so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly

:37:26. > :37:29.globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.

:37:30. > :37:33.We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most

:37:34. > :37:37.important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?

:37:38. > :37:41.Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the

:37:42. > :37:45.politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with

:37:46. > :37:49.taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down

:37:50. > :37:52.the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have

:37:53. > :37:57.been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will

:37:58. > :38:01.produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the

:38:02. > :38:04.housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats

:38:05. > :38:14.and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I

:38:15. > :38:17.can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.

:38:18. > :38:24.You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:25. > :38:37.Hello once again from the Midlands. Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up

:38:38. > :38:41.Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And welcome to

:38:42. > :38:43.this, the second of our live debates with candidates from all four main

:38:44. > :38:46.parties contesting this week's European elections here. A week

:38:47. > :38:49.tonight we'll know who's in and who's out, the seven MEPs who'll be

:38:50. > :38:52.representing nearly six million Midlanders in the European

:38:53. > :38:54.Parliament for the next five years.So who'll be delivering their

:38:55. > :38:59.victory speeches, and who'll be putting`on more or less brave faces

:39:00. > :39:05.in defeat? Anthea McIntyre is a Conservative MEP in the outgoing

:39:06. > :39:10.Parliament. Neena Gill is the Number One Labour candidate. Phil Bennion

:39:11. > :39:16.is our one Liberal Democrat MEP in the outgoing Parliament. And Jill

:39:17. > :39:28.Seymour is top of UKIP's candidates list. They will welcome to you all.

:39:29. > :39:31.And that's not all. Nearly 350 council seats will be contested in

:39:32. > :39:34.18 authorities here, in Thursday's local elections. Two`thirds of them

:39:35. > :39:36.happen to be in places with marginal Parliamentary constituencies, so

:39:37. > :39:39.there should be no shortage of General Election pointers. Our BBC

:39:40. > :39:42.WM Political Reporter Kathryn Stanczyszyn has been to Tamworth in

:39:43. > :39:49.Staffordshire ` a place with historical ties to a former

:39:50. > :39:52.Conservative Prime Minister. Tamworth has been associated with a

:39:53. > :39:59.specific piece of political history for 180 years ` Sir Robert Peel's

:40:00. > :40:03.famous Tamworth Manifesto. This a significant intense political

:40:04. > :40:05.history. It was a key moment in the way our Government run. Peel's

:40:06. > :40:08.manifesto paved the way for modern Conservatism. It talked about the

:40:09. > :40:11.widespread reform ` ideas you could say resonate with the current

:40:12. > :40:18.Conservative Government. In 2014, what are the local political

:40:19. > :40:22.manifestoes for Tamworth itself? At the moment the Conservatives have 17

:40:23. > :40:24.seats out of 30. Labour hold 12. There's just one left over ` a

:40:25. > :40:28.single independent. The Conservatives have run the council

:40:29. > :40:33.here since 2004 ` but this year they're facing the strongest

:40:34. > :40:37.challenge from Labour in a decade. And the party hopes if it's good

:40:38. > :40:42.news this month ` it'll be good news at next year's General election.

:40:43. > :40:48.Labour says this is one of two target seats for them ` and they're

:40:49. > :40:52.canvassing hard: all we need to do is win three more seats. We need to

:40:53. > :40:56.take control of the council that way. That is doable. That'll be the

:40:57. > :41:00.stepping stone. The battle for Tamworth has been and is again

:41:01. > :41:05.essentially a two`horse race ` the Liberal Democrats are fielding just

:41:06. > :41:08.one candidate in the ten wards. We have a message to get through. Maybe

:41:09. > :41:14.we have had some people retire this year, but we have new members coming

:41:15. > :41:21.on board all the time and I think they make good candidates for the

:41:22. > :41:24.future. But there is a possibility of a significant UKIP effect in the

:41:25. > :41:28.area ` At the Staffordshire County Council elections in 2013 ` UKIP

:41:29. > :41:31.took a 14 per cent share of the vote. The party's fielding six

:41:32. > :41:33.candidates. What UKIP stands for in Tamworth is giving democracy back to

:41:34. > :41:37.the people. At the moment, we have the Tories and Labour and it is

:41:38. > :41:39.pretty much a 2`party system. When one party voted out another come in

:41:40. > :41:42.and nothing changes. And it's the Conservatives ` defending a

:41:43. > :41:46.dwindling majority ` that could fare worst if there is a UKIP effect.

:41:47. > :41:50.They say they've done enough to make sure that doesn't happen: I believe

:41:51. > :41:54.the Conservatives have every chance. I think our campaign has been

:41:55. > :41:58.honest, we have engaged with people, we have tackled issues, we have kept

:41:59. > :42:01.council tax low and I think the public will appreciate that. An

:42:02. > :42:04.exact repeat of the results of 2012 would leave Labour in charge by a

:42:05. > :42:07.majority of just one. The Conservatives insist they'll keep

:42:08. > :42:12.Tamworth ` something no doubt Sir Robert Peel would approve of.

:42:13. > :42:15.Kathryn Stanczynszyn from the home town of the father of modern

:42:16. > :42:26.Conservatism, now a prime Labour target. Tamworth in a way, embodies

:42:27. > :42:29.this debate. Because, the council looks like a relatively easy win for

:42:30. > :42:34.you, but the Parliamentary constituency, with a 6000 majority,

:42:35. > :42:39.that is a different kettle of fish. It raises this question of whether

:42:40. > :42:47.you're going to be 35% strategies or the wider middle England appeal that

:42:48. > :42:51.we saw in 1997 for example. My own experience out about in Tamworth is

:42:52. > :42:57.that we are getting a really positive response and Tamworth is

:42:58. > :43:02.one of our target seats. Tamworth is, but what about the wider issue.

:43:03. > :43:10.Shrewsbury, Worcester and the middle England effects? Will stand Tamworth

:43:11. > :43:16.are our targets. So you will lot fired hard Shrewsbury? no. There are

:43:17. > :43:19.a number of seats for the Labour Party to target in the West

:43:20. > :43:24.Midlands. We are targeting Tamworth. My own experience on the doorstep is

:43:25. > :43:29.that our message of local offering an national offering is going down

:43:30. > :43:34.very well on the doorstep. So a very positive response. Labour's

:43:35. > :43:39.agenda... Phil, you are a Staffordshire man. But it is almost

:43:40. > :43:46.a Lib Dem free zone. No councillors for that part in Staffordshire? How

:43:47. > :43:49.will you fight back as a farmer? We have started fighting back in

:43:50. > :43:54.Lichfield. We have regained a seat in a by`election that we lost to the

:43:55. > :44:04.Conservatives in 2011. Tamworth itself has never been fertile area

:44:05. > :44:09.for that. Stony ground for the Lib Dems? Staffordshire is probably our

:44:10. > :44:14.weakest area in the West Midlands. We have got a history of success in

:44:15. > :44:19.Newcastle and the moorlands. But if you look further south, in

:44:20. > :44:23.Birmingham for instance, we are looking for a much better

:44:24. > :44:28.performance in... Than we had in 2012. We are hoping to get some

:44:29. > :44:33.seats back in Birmingham. Thinking of local elections Jill, UKIP are

:44:34. > :44:38.really a major force. We do not really have true for party politics

:44:39. > :44:43.the way we do in the European debate. So what is your distinctive,

:44:44. > :44:47.local election campaigning theme going into Thursday? We are

:44:48. > :44:50.resonating with the actual electorate on the streets. In

:44:51. > :44:55.Tamworth specifically at the moment, there are issues about where they

:44:56. > :44:59.are putting an increase of housing. There has only been about 200 over

:45:00. > :45:03.the past year and what is happening is that they are taking over the

:45:04. > :45:06.golf course, they took back thousands of new houses there. They

:45:07. > :45:13.are also breaking down and disseminating their local hospital.

:45:14. > :45:21.So you're picking local issues? Yes. We have 75% of the local candidates

:45:22. > :45:25.in the West Midlands. In some constituencies we have a full slate

:45:26. > :45:29.of candidates. And this Anthea, is the challenge facing the

:45:30. > :45:33.Conservatives. You have two frontier. War on two fronts at the

:45:34. > :45:39.same time and as any tactician knows, that is not a comfortable

:45:40. > :45:43.place. We are fighting to win every Conservative vote and keep control

:45:44. > :45:47.of the council. That is not a problem having two separate enemies.

:45:48. > :45:49.We are putting forward a very clear message from the conservative point

:45:50. > :45:55.of view. We need reform in Europe, we need to recoup renegotiate and we

:45:56. > :45:58.need and in out referendum. Only the Conservatives can give you that and

:45:59. > :46:05.that is the message that I am putting out in Tamworth and

:46:06. > :46:11.everywhere else. Andrew Neil raised this question, that if the bee

:46:12. > :46:16.negotiation does not deliver what everybody in your party hopes for,

:46:17. > :46:22.then the Conservatives would lead an exit strategy, a campaign to come

:46:23. > :46:28.out. You say you are clear as a party, so let's have it. It is very

:46:29. > :46:31.clear we need reform. So the first thing we need is a renegotiation.

:46:32. > :46:35.And when we have something that brings powers back to the member

:46:36. > :46:39.states that we have already managed to cut the budget of, so that will

:46:40. > :46:43.be a good sign. But all of these things, when we have something

:46:44. > :46:47.positive, we put it to the British people and it is them that decide.

:46:48. > :46:51.Not the Conservatives, not the other parties. But the British people.

:46:52. > :46:54.With apologies to viewers in Gloucestershire who have your own

:46:55. > :46:57.Euro`elections to look forward to, for seats in South West England, six

:46:58. > :47:01.of the 11 parties standing in the West Midlands are explicitly

:47:02. > :47:05.anti`EU. Two of them are led by local MEPs in the outgoing

:47:06. > :47:12.Parliament. Both were elected for UKIP last time round. They'd

:47:13. > :47:15.campaigned together only to split up. Mike Nattrass has served two

:47:16. > :47:19.five`year terms. But having fallen out with Nigel Farage and failed to

:47:20. > :47:22.be re`selected by UKIP, he's launched a new party which will head

:47:23. > :47:30.the alphabetical lists on most ballot papers in England. We are a

:47:31. > :47:34.democratic party. We are to the left of the main party involves,

:47:35. > :47:38.certainly, because we do not believe in privatisation. In fact, the EU

:47:39. > :47:42.are rampant privatisation experts. They want the railways privatised,

:47:43. > :47:46.they want everything privatised. The one that worries me most is

:47:47. > :47:52.privatisation of NHS. That name party seems to think it is a good

:47:53. > :47:57.idea. You cannot bring yourself to mention UKIP by name. Is this really

:47:58. > :48:01.politics, or your personality clash and Nigel Farage? He now runs the

:48:02. > :48:05.party as a one`man band. He makes policy on the hoof, he has destroyed

:48:06. > :48:09.or the policies of UKIP. You will find now, that of the toll

:48:10. > :48:14.collector, with him in 2009, six have walked away because of his

:48:15. > :48:20.excesses. And of the six remaining, he only backs to. And get UKIP I

:48:21. > :48:22.never been so popular. They are threatening a remoulding of British

:48:23. > :48:27.politics in the way that didn't happen when you were involved. That

:48:28. > :48:31.is because they do not know the people behind the sign. Those people

:48:32. > :48:35.have changed. You will find that most of the originals, like myself,

:48:36. > :48:39.are not in the party any more. Just months after she was elected, Nikki

:48:40. > :48:41.Sinclaire was expelled from UKIP for refusing to join them in the

:48:42. > :48:46.European Parliament's Freedom and Democracy grouping: "holocaust

:48:47. > :48:49.deniers" she calls them. Her referendum petition forced David

:48:50. > :48:52.Cameron to the dispatch box where he became the first Conservative Prime

:48:53. > :49:03.Minister to be defeated on the European issue. Unlike him, she's

:49:04. > :49:07.demanding an In`Out Referendum now. the referendum that Cameron has

:49:08. > :49:10.promised is too far away. We need one before the next general

:49:11. > :49:15.election. If you take the most pro`European argument about the U,

:49:16. > :49:18.that it is dependent on European Union for jobs and investment, I do

:49:19. > :49:24.not except that argument. But if that is the case, the worst you can

:49:25. > :49:29.create around jobs is uncertainty. He's good to great a three`year

:49:30. > :49:33.uncertainty. She says she's had a bigger impact on the European issue

:49:34. > :49:36.in her one term as an MEP and all of UKIP's members of th European

:49:37. > :49:49.Parliament have achieved over three times that long. I started a

:49:50. > :49:53.campaign. I created `` all those signatures I collected. Not one of

:49:54. > :49:57.those was Nigel Farage's. UKIP failed to support my campaign and it

:49:58. > :50:02.is the only tangible thing that has moved this issue forward. And Nigel

:50:03. > :50:07.Farage and UKIP have been there for 15 years and in four and a half

:50:08. > :50:11.years, outside UKIP, that has been one MEP, me, and I have moved that

:50:12. > :50:14.issue along far more than them in 15 years. White After the campaign

:50:15. > :50:18.she's due to answer police bail at the end of the month, more than two

:50:19. > :50:21.years after her arrest on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud the

:50:22. > :50:28.European Parliament. Macro The full list of candidates is on the BBC

:50:29. > :50:30.Politics website. We asked West Midlands Police why their

:50:31. > :50:33.investigation of the allegations against Nikki Sinclaire was so

:50:34. > :50:35.painfully long and drawn`out. They told us these are complex inquiries

:50:36. > :50:38.involving evidence`gathering in many different countries. They appreciate

:50:39. > :50:41.the impact this has on all concerned, but such allegations must

:50:42. > :50:50.be thoroughly and professionally investigated. Nikki Sinclaire

:50:51. > :50:56.strenuously denies any wrongdoing. Jill, the evidence their show that

:50:57. > :50:59.Nicky Sinclair, in one term, as an independent MEP, has done more to

:51:00. > :51:08.move this European issue on in the debate than all of your MEPs

:51:09. > :51:10.combine. In 15 years! I think you'll find as we have tripled in our

:51:11. > :51:15.membership of the past couple of years, the people do not believe

:51:16. > :51:25.what's Nicky has done a one situation... She has energised this

:51:26. > :51:30.whole thing though. I agree. In hindsight, that is an excellent

:51:31. > :51:33.achievement. But that is also created a real issue about the

:51:34. > :51:36.public that they do not have their say. And I think with UKIP at the

:51:37. > :51:40.moment we have such a clout now with the people, they know we are the

:51:41. > :51:43.party, you have to have a fair amount of people in the European

:51:44. > :51:48.Parliament to make them start to listen and that is the way we are

:51:49. > :51:56.moving in UKIP. Isn't the Lib Dem party taking a huge gamble now,

:51:57. > :52:01.being so much the party... We heard Nick Clegg make a very direct

:52:02. > :52:06.personal attack on Nigel Farage. It is all getting a bit unnecessary

:52:07. > :52:12.isn't it? I do not fit we need to be personal about this. The view of

:52:13. > :52:14.business and the view of the people, we are seeing now two consecutive

:52:15. > :52:19.opinion polls saying that we should be staying in full stop I think even

:52:20. > :52:23.people who are slightly Eurosceptic are now saying that they will look

:52:24. > :52:28.at their head rather than their hearts. Our view is that outside of

:52:29. > :52:32.the European Union, we will not have full access to the single market and

:52:33. > :52:37.it will cost us jobs. Politics is about hearts as well as heads. It

:52:38. > :52:41.is, but in the long term, people start to think about their own self

:52:42. > :52:46.interest and the national interest. The national interest is served by

:52:47. > :52:50.being inside of the EU. But you are in a bit of a tryst labour, in terms

:52:51. > :52:53.of clarity. We have the party bin and the party of out that your

:52:54. > :52:57.position on the referendum may be... It is not clear. It is not the

:52:58. > :53:04.clarion call that other parties offer. We have a clear position. It

:53:05. > :53:08.is not in our interest to have a referendum. Already, you know, the

:53:09. > :53:14.impact of David Cameron calling for a referendum has created in big

:53:15. > :53:17.businesses expressing concern. A lot of global businesses saying they

:53:18. > :53:22.will question whether they invest in Britain as a result of this

:53:23. > :53:25.referendum. What's he has actually achieved by his recklessness is that

:53:26. > :53:31.he has undermined our position, not just over here, but also in terms of

:53:32. > :53:36.our influence in Europe to change things. So our position is very

:53:37. > :53:40.clear: If we see more transfer of power, that is when we will have a

:53:41. > :53:44.referendum. We do not think it is in the interest of us here in the West

:53:45. > :53:48.Midlands to have a referendum right now. And that is a point and that is

:53:49. > :53:52.a pointer Nicky Sinclair made. That David Cameron has ushered in this

:53:53. > :53:56.period of uncertainty. It is one thing that business hates. If are

:53:57. > :54:03.talking about jobs then it is uncertainty act hates that rabbit

:54:04. > :54:07.that the hates most. We can see that now. We can see companies trying to

:54:08. > :54:13.bowl their headquarters here. Those companies, they want invest in the

:54:14. > :54:18.UK because of the number of issues. And because of our situation. So it

:54:19. > :54:22.is good that we are seeing unemployment steadily coming down.

:54:23. > :54:26.There is no point having a referendum tomorrow. We cannot we

:54:27. > :54:30.can't because Lib Dems and the Labour peers in the Lords blocked a

:54:31. > :54:36.referendum just recently. So it is clear that we cannot have one until

:54:37. > :54:41.we have a Conservative Government. Not a coalition, but a Conservative

:54:42. > :54:45.Government. UKIP are never going to have any influence in Westminster.

:54:46. > :54:50.So let us negotiate, let us get the best deal possible and then have a

:54:51. > :54:53.referendum. I'm just couldn't go round each of you and ask you what

:54:54. > :55:01.he would achieve as an MEP in your own case. Jill first. As an NEP, we

:55:02. > :55:04.will have a lot more after May. So we will probably double our quota.

:55:05. > :55:11.My achievement personally, I would like to see us get this referendum

:55:12. > :55:15.earlier. Because Cameron already knows that it is reforming the

:55:16. > :55:20.Lisbon Treaty on the 1st of November and that will be more or less a way

:55:21. > :55:25.to sign away the UK's independence. But what have you achieved as an MP?

:55:26. > :55:29.I got Green and save a lorry through Parliament. That proposal has now

:55:30. > :55:35.got to be negotiated with member states and we are also seeing them

:55:36. > :55:37.trying to backslide, so I want to be there to be sat forward in

:55:38. > :55:43.negotiation. A lot more issues that I have dealt with with the salvation

:55:44. > :55:48.communities that macro South Asian communities. What would you say your

:55:49. > :55:53.work that likely your signal achievements were? Getting funding.

:55:54. > :55:56.I was on the budget committee and I was able to get considerably more

:55:57. > :55:59.resources. But I think there is a real job of work to be done out

:56:00. > :56:04.there in terms of getting more investment, creating more jobs and

:56:05. > :56:09.especially, when it comes to the guarantee scheme, we need to tackle

:56:10. > :56:13.youth unemployment. And there is a fund at European level and is

:56:14. > :56:19.committed not taking up that phone. Briefly, your signature achievements

:56:20. > :56:22.as an MP and they are. Getting a report through the Parliament goes

:56:23. > :56:26.as a resolution to cut red tape for small businesses and make Europe

:56:27. > :56:34.hospital or jobs. Thank you for the moment. Now for our regular round`up

:56:35. > :56:38.of the week in Sixty Seconds. It's another of our campaign specials,

:56:39. > :56:43.brought to us today by BBC Midlands Today's Elizabeth Glinka The "Get

:56:44. > :56:46.Cov Back to the Ricoh" campaign is standing against Labour council

:56:47. > :56:50.leader Ann Lucas in Coventry. They want to pressurise the council to do

:56:51. > :56:52.more to get Sky Blues back from exile in Northampton. UKIP kept

:56:53. > :56:55.onside, launching their regional local and European election campaign

:56:56. > :56:59.at St Andrew's ` the home of Birmingham City FC. They'll be

:57:00. > :57:03.hoping they can do better than the Blues ` in both footballing and

:57:04. > :57:06.political terms! The Liberal Democrats big guns were on hand at

:57:07. > :57:10.an apprenticeship event at Solihull College. It came in a week which saw

:57:11. > :57:15.more positive economic news for the region as unemployment fell by

:57:16. > :57:19.13,000. And the English Democrats field a full slate of candidates in

:57:20. > :57:21.the Euro elections in the West Midlands. They want an English

:57:22. > :57:32.parliament. And they have a regionally popular message on where

:57:33. > :57:35.it might be located. Acquire like the idea myself. Litchfield is a

:57:36. > :57:45.very historic town, very English. It also goes by and as associations

:57:46. > :57:49.with the... We should point out Derek Hilling was speaking for

:57:50. > :57:52.purely himself in that clip. It is not official party policy for an

:57:53. > :58:00.English Parliament to be here in the Midlands. Not yet anyway. It would

:58:01. > :58:12.very handy for an MP3 Litchfield view? Litchfield was of course

:58:13. > :58:16.ecclesiastical capital of Britain. England does get overlooked.

:58:17. > :58:21.Largely, that is our own internal problem. We have a constitutional

:58:22. > :58:26.situation where England is or doesn't get the same is that is as

:58:27. > :58:31.Scotland, Wales and the devolved nations. And Jill, it is the UK

:58:32. > :58:35.Independence party which suggests to me you an optically begun England

:58:36. > :58:40.either? From the principle there, we believe there is an unfair plane

:58:41. > :58:44.feel at the moment. We should be looking at having more involvement.

:58:45. > :58:47.We can't have involvement in Wales or Scotland at the moment, we

:58:48. > :58:52.definitely do not want to see Scotland break away from us. Wants

:58:53. > :58:58.to you thing being this dimension is? You unleashed this wave of

:58:59. > :59:01.devolution. Englander does appear to be puny in comparison with others,

:59:02. > :59:07.despite being the largest country in Europe. Fire macro I think it is

:59:08. > :59:11.regrettable that we lost regional representation. But at the end of

:59:12. > :59:16.the day, I am not sure people want more parliaments. That is clear in

:59:17. > :59:22.many of the referendums and others we have had. We do not appear to go

:59:23. > :59:29.for more devolved assemblies. Would you vote for an English Parliament

:59:30. > :59:33.and the? We do not want regions in a federal Europe. What we want is a

:59:34. > :59:37.United Kingdom with its parliament in Westminster representing all of

:59:38. > :59:41.us. All others then represented by the parliament within the European

:59:42. > :59:46.negotiations with the member states. So, not regionalised things,

:59:47. > :59:53.keep Britain together. That is why I hope Scotland will stick with the

:59:54. > :59:58.rest of the UK. How on earth then do MEPs that I could you as MEPs

:59:59. > :00:01.reconcile this problem of representing Stoke, Stratford,

:00:02. > :00:12.Cheltenham, the Staffordshire Borders? It must be a difficulty. We

:00:13. > :00:19.are concentrated in getting funding in. Right across the region. We are

:00:20. > :00:30.working together with the local authority leaders . We are setting

:00:31. > :00:35.up mechanisms where we can ensure we are fair between representing Stoke,

:00:36. > :00:43.Coventry, Wolverhampton and Birmingham. You are the party

:00:44. > :00:50.grassroots, a word? I'm all over the region. Jill, you get the last word.

:00:51. > :00:54.we have been all over the West Midlands in the last few weeks.

:00:55. > :00:59.Certainly, the seven MEPs have worked hard to get representation.

:01:00. > :01:06.Just a week now and so we know the outcome. Thank you all. Starting on

:01:07. > :01:10.Thursday evening, I'll have the latest from those of our councils

:01:11. > :01:13.counting on the night. That's in Vote 2014 from 11.35 here on BBC

:01:14. > :01:16.One. With further reports from the others counting on Friday during

:01:17. > :01:19.Midlands Today and on your BBC local radio station. Meantime, the

:01:20. > :01:22.European votes will remain in cold storage until a week tonight after

:01:23. > :01:26.polls have closed elswehere in Europe. It would never do for the

:01:27. > :01:28.West Midlands results to skew the voting

:01:29. > :01:39.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

:01:40. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

:01:47. > :01:51.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

:01:52. > :01:56.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

:01:57. > :02:00.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

:02:01. > :02:06.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

:02:07. > :02:10.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

:02:11. > :02:16.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

:02:17. > :02:29.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

:02:30. > :02:36.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

:02:37. > :02:42.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

:02:43. > :02:46.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

:02:47. > :02:51.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

:02:52. > :02:54.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

:02:55. > :02:59.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

:03:00. > :03:04.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

:03:05. > :03:09.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

:03:10. > :03:13.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

:03:14. > :03:20.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

:03:21. > :03:29.democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are

:03:30. > :03:34.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

:03:35. > :03:37.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

:03:38. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

:03:44. > :03:48.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

:03:49. > :04:02.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

:04:03. > :04:11.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

:04:12. > :04:17.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

:04:18. > :04:22.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

:04:23. > :04:25.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

:04:26. > :04:29.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

:04:30. > :04:36.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

:04:37. > :04:41.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

:04:42. > :04:47.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

:04:48. > :04:51.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

:04:52. > :04:54.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

:04:55. > :05:00.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

:05:01. > :05:03.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

:05:04. > :05:07.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

:05:08. > :05:12.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

:05:13. > :05:18.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

:05:19. > :05:21.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

:05:22. > :05:27.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

:05:28. > :05:32.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

:05:33. > :05:38.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

:05:39. > :05:42.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

:05:43. > :05:47.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

:05:48. > :05:55.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

:05:56. > :05:59.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

:06:00. > :06:03.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

:06:04. > :06:07.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

:06:08. > :06:12.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

:06:13. > :06:16.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

:06:17. > :06:21.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

:06:22. > :06:27.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

:06:28. > :06:34.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

:06:35. > :06:38.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

:06:39. > :06:42.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

:06:43. > :06:48.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

:06:55. > :06:57.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

:06:58. > :07:01.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

:07:02. > :07:08.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

:07:09. > :07:13.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

:07:14. > :07:17.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

:07:18. > :07:20.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

:07:21. > :07:25.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

:07:26. > :07:29.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

:07:30. > :07:35.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

:07:36. > :07:41.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

:07:42. > :07:45.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

:07:46. > :07:49.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

:07:50. > :07:53.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

:07:54. > :08:00.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

:08:01. > :08:04.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

:08:05. > :08:07.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

:08:08. > :08:13.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

:08:14. > :08:18.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

:08:19. > :08:22.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

:08:23. > :08:26.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

:08:27. > :08:30.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

:08:31. > :08:36.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

:08:37. > :08:41.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or

:08:42. > :08:46.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

:08:47. > :08:51.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

:08:52. > :08:56.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

:08:57. > :09:11.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

:09:12. > :09:14.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

:09:15. > :09:20.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

:09:21. > :09:25.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

:09:26. > :09:29.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

:09:30. > :09:36.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

:09:37. > :09:44.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

:09:45. > :09:47.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

:09:48. > :09:54.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

:09:55. > :10:00.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

:10:01. > :10:08.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

:10:09. > :10:11.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

:10:12. > :10:16.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

:10:17. > :10:19.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

:10:20. > :10:25.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

:10:26. > :10:30.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

:10:31. > :10:33.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

:10:34. > :10:37.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

:10:38. > :10:43.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

:10:44. > :10:47.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

:10:48. > :10:52.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

:10:53. > :10:58.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

:10:59. > :11:02.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

:11:03. > :11:06.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

:11:07. > :11:11.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

:11:12. > :11:15.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

:11:16. > :11:20.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

:11:21. > :11:23.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

:11:24. > :11:28.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

:11:29. > :11:32.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

:11:33. > :11:36.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

:11:37. > :11:44.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

:11:45. > :11:46.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

:11:47. > :11:51.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

:11:52. > :11:56.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

:11:57. > :12:00.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

:12:01. > :12:04.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

:12:05. > :12:10.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

:12:11. > :12:14.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

:12:15. > :12:18.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

:12:19. > :12:23.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

:12:24. > :12:26.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

:12:27. > :12:33.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

:12:34. > :12:39.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

:12:40. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

:12:45. > :12:47.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

:12:48. > :12:54.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

:12:55. > :13:01.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

:13:02. > :13:06.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

:13:07. > :13:10.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

:13:11. > :13:14.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.

:13:15. > :13:18.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,

:13:19. > :13:22.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

:13:23. > :13:27.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

:13:28. > :13:30.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

:13:31. > :13:33.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday