:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:55.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:56. > :01:00.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:01. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:09.And in the Midlands, the local henhouse.
:01:10. > :01:13.And in the Midlands, the local electorate has spoken ` but what has
:01:14. > :01:17.it said? The UKIP surge wins them 30 new council seats. And the Greens
:01:18. > :01:18.are celebrating: could they get into Europe
:01:19. > :01:22.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.
:01:23. > :01:31.More analysis in just over half an hour.
:01:32. > :01:39.Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --
:01:40. > :01:43.bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The
:01:44. > :01:48.Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of
:01:49. > :01:52.the losses in previous years, the local government base has been
:01:53. > :01:55.whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European
:01:56. > :01:58.Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are
:01:59. > :02:04.announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats
:02:05. > :02:08.have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West
:02:09. > :02:15.Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked
:02:16. > :02:20.incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is
:02:21. > :02:27.perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you
:02:28. > :02:34.trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core
:02:35. > :02:36.values of our party. This is how the party president
:02:37. > :02:44.responded. At this time, it would be foolish
:02:45. > :02:48.for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us
:02:49. > :02:52.from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,
:02:53. > :02:58.we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The
:02:59. > :03:03.major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike
:03:04. > :03:13.the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.
:03:14. > :03:20.Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different
:03:21. > :03:24.people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own
:03:25. > :03:28.activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at
:03:29. > :03:33.holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some
:03:34. > :03:36.people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should
:03:37. > :03:41.stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible
:03:42. > :03:46.Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my
:03:47. > :03:52.conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to
:03:53. > :04:00.my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open
:04:01. > :04:06.mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my
:04:07. > :04:10.mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can
:04:11. > :04:16.assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going
:04:17. > :04:22.to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must
:04:23. > :04:26.have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your
:04:27. > :04:31.members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up
:04:32. > :04:36.using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not
:04:37. > :04:40.allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get
:04:41. > :04:45.constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.
:04:46. > :04:51.I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also
:04:52. > :04:56.concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how
:04:57. > :05:02.parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of
:05:03. > :05:06.school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for
:05:07. > :05:11.those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch
:05:12. > :05:16.pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want
:05:17. > :05:20.a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that
:05:21. > :05:26.say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are
:05:27. > :05:30.issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with
:05:31. > :05:36.what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we
:05:37. > :05:42.should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less
:05:43. > :05:48.control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what
:05:49. > :05:51.UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,
:05:52. > :05:58.which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.
:05:59. > :06:02.There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry
:06:03. > :06:08.about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.
:06:09. > :06:12.You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg
:06:13. > :06:18.to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am
:06:19. > :06:23.more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right
:06:24. > :06:27.things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the
:06:28. > :06:32.country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student
:06:33. > :06:38.finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which
:06:39. > :06:40.was to get a better system, more students are going to university,
:06:41. > :06:46.and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.
:06:47. > :06:51.But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It
:06:52. > :06:56.depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,
:06:57. > :07:03.I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing
:07:04. > :07:10.to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost
:07:11. > :07:15.300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable
:07:16. > :07:19.and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to
:07:20. > :07:25.we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,
:07:26. > :07:31.and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking
:07:32. > :07:34.away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor
:07:35. > :07:39.is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do
:07:40. > :07:44.they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is
:07:45. > :07:49.reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had
:07:50. > :07:54.towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.
:07:55. > :08:00.And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.
:08:01. > :08:05.Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has
:08:06. > :08:09.transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had
:08:10. > :08:12.it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest
:08:13. > :08:18.party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it
:08:19. > :08:23.all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would
:08:24. > :08:28.look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are
:08:29. > :08:34.seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a
:08:35. > :08:37.Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have
:08:38. > :08:42.never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they
:08:43. > :08:50.are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?
:08:51. > :08:55.-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a
:08:56. > :09:03.business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is
:09:04. > :09:08.Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his
:09:09. > :09:11.best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person
:09:12. > :09:20.who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on
:09:21. > :09:23.this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of
:09:24. > :09:31.government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no
:09:32. > :09:35.overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.
:09:36. > :09:40.They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour
:09:41. > :09:47.Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and
:09:48. > :09:53.sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am
:09:54. > :09:57.every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was
:09:58. > :10:05.like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not
:10:06. > :10:10.provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug
:10:11. > :10:18.and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the
:10:19. > :10:22.next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are
:10:23. > :10:26.finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the
:10:27. > :10:30.show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could
:10:31. > :10:33.not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves
:10:34. > :10:39.to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work
:10:40. > :10:48.out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.
:10:49. > :10:55.Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in
:10:56. > :10:59.charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,
:11:00. > :11:03.working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the
:11:04. > :11:10.results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of
:11:11. > :11:15.activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.
:11:16. > :11:19.What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital
:11:20. > :11:24.dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of
:11:25. > :11:27.accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of
:11:28. > :11:30.the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are
:11:31. > :11:37.coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined
:11:38. > :11:43.David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election
:11:44. > :11:47.centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things
:11:48. > :11:52.have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will
:11:53. > :11:56.see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,
:11:57. > :12:02.and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old
:12:03. > :12:05.messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper
:12:06. > :12:09.exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.
:12:10. > :12:12.In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get
:12:13. > :12:19.in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a
:12:20. > :12:25.rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but
:12:26. > :12:30.they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel
:12:31. > :12:34.Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best
:12:35. > :12:39.form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP
:12:40. > :12:44.and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious
:12:45. > :12:50.proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on
:12:51. > :12:56.board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but
:12:57. > :12:59.they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success
:13:00. > :13:03.story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at
:13:04. > :13:09.those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you
:13:10. > :13:12.shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,
:13:13. > :13:19.that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general
:13:20. > :13:23.election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,
:13:24. > :13:29.on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not
:13:30. > :13:36.to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has
:13:37. > :13:40.been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will
:13:41. > :13:44.still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the
:13:45. > :13:48.second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it
:13:49. > :13:53.is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have
:13:54. > :13:59.taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the
:14:00. > :14:03.next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under
:14:04. > :14:09.the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in
:14:10. > :14:12.government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single
:14:13. > :14:17.Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,
:14:18. > :14:34.who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?
:14:35. > :14:42.Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not
:14:43. > :14:48.enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around
:14:49. > :14:53.Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council
:14:54. > :15:02.wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked
:15:03. > :15:08.on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead
:15:09. > :15:16.and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to
:15:17. > :15:21.Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national
:15:22. > :15:27.share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,
:15:28. > :15:33.only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in
:15:34. > :15:36.2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about
:15:37. > :15:46.what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken
:15:47. > :15:51.away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You
:15:52. > :15:57.are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst
:15:58. > :16:02.defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters
:16:03. > :16:07.is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the
:16:08. > :16:11.presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the
:16:12. > :16:15.local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true
:16:16. > :16:19.that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because
:16:20. > :16:27.you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest
:16:28. > :16:31.of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because
:16:32. > :16:36.London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the
:16:37. > :16:41.warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting
:16:42. > :16:45.up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down
:16:46. > :16:53.the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was
:16:54. > :17:07.particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear
:17:08. > :17:13.before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote
:17:14. > :17:17.for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said
:17:18. > :17:21.London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest
:17:22. > :17:26.of the country. One of the things that is different from London as
:17:27. > :17:31.opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few
:17:32. > :17:37.thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go
:17:38. > :17:42.and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had
:17:43. > :17:47.to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse
:17:48. > :17:53.voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live
:17:54. > :17:58.there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass
:17:59. > :18:08.uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in
:18:09. > :18:13.next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't
:18:14. > :18:20.end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.
:18:21. > :18:27.What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral
:18:28. > :18:32.superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do
:18:33. > :18:36.not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is
:18:37. > :18:40.getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem
:18:41. > :18:49.according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote
:18:50. > :18:55.is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband
:18:56. > :19:03.have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very
:19:04. > :19:14.well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned
:19:15. > :19:18.some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation
:19:19. > :19:22.is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims
:19:23. > :19:31.there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own
:19:32. > :19:35.cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't
:19:36. > :19:47.know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could
:19:48. > :19:51.have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking
:19:52. > :20:03.better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are
:20:04. > :20:06.all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may
:20:07. > :20:12.be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their
:20:13. > :20:17.children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you
:20:18. > :20:19.ask people about their future and their children's future and
:20:20. > :20:26.prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you
:20:27. > :20:32.in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP
:20:33. > :20:38.and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be
:20:39. > :20:43.with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you
:20:44. > :20:46.put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with
:20:47. > :20:51.the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they
:20:52. > :20:55.are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are
:20:56. > :21:00.going to back to the three main parties in general election. It
:21:01. > :21:08.would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have
:21:09. > :21:18.said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for
:21:19. > :21:25.granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our
:21:26. > :21:32.strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal
:21:33. > :21:37.with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to
:21:38. > :21:44.burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win
:21:45. > :21:48.Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being
:21:49. > :21:56.the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and
:21:57. > :22:05.end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to
:22:06. > :22:13.go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't
:22:14. > :22:15.vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we
:22:16. > :22:24.need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great
:22:25. > :22:30.crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have
:22:31. > :22:39.you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It
:22:40. > :22:45.is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set
:22:46. > :22:49.for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,
:22:50. > :22:55.an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have
:22:56. > :22:59.an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their
:23:00. > :23:10.rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,
:23:11. > :23:15.hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a
:23:16. > :23:24.member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were
:23:25. > :23:29.you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important
:23:30. > :23:39.interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on
:23:40. > :23:45.there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.
:23:46. > :23:50.So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,
:23:51. > :23:54.because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that
:23:55. > :23:59.interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and
:24:00. > :24:10.I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy
:24:11. > :24:19.with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our
:24:20. > :24:24.boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time
:24:25. > :24:29.tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just
:24:30. > :24:35.count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my
:24:36. > :24:38.party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing
:24:39. > :24:43.country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able
:24:44. > :24:48.to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of
:24:49. > :24:56.overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former
:24:57. > :25:02.deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000
:25:03. > :25:05.voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that
:25:06. > :25:10.will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26
:25:11. > :25:22.constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would
:25:23. > :25:27.support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of
:25:28. > :25:36.6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That
:25:37. > :25:45.implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in
:25:46. > :25:53.second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.
:25:54. > :25:57.Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP
:25:58. > :26:01.supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched
:26:02. > :26:05.from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
:26:06. > :26:12.The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft
:26:13. > :26:17.Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal
:26:18. > :26:21.constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an
:26:22. > :26:29.election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went
:26:30. > :26:34.through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a
:26:35. > :26:40.number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is
:26:41. > :26:44.Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a
:26:45. > :26:49.snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be
:26:50. > :26:54.improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are
:26:55. > :26:57.fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead
:26:58. > :27:06.in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The
:27:07. > :27:09.Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking
:27:10. > :27:14.dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a
:27:15. > :27:24.no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.
:27:25. > :27:29.Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the
:27:30. > :27:33.largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are
:27:34. > :27:40.smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a
:27:41. > :27:47.single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors
:27:48. > :27:52.in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any
:27:53. > :27:57.of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England
:27:58. > :28:01.than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did
:28:02. > :28:06.vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many
:28:07. > :28:11.of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will
:28:12. > :28:16.bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,
:28:17. > :28:22.but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the
:28:23. > :28:27.Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the
:28:28. > :28:32.electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I
:28:33. > :28:37.believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I
:28:38. > :28:41.believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity
:28:42. > :28:45.into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election
:28:46. > :28:51.results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general
:28:52. > :28:57.election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that
:28:58. > :29:05.Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I
:29:06. > :29:11.am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the
:29:12. > :29:14.results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national
:29:15. > :29:19.election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from
:29:20. > :29:24.now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we
:29:25. > :29:29.are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic
:29:30. > :29:34.plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel
:29:35. > :29:39.secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.
:29:40. > :29:43.Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues
:29:44. > :29:51.that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep
:29:52. > :29:57.your promises. We have reduced immigration and the
:29:58. > :30:04.amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a
:30:05. > :30:09.couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to
:30:10. > :30:17.under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have
:30:18. > :30:23.broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU
:30:24. > :30:27.countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming
:30:28. > :30:34.here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help
:30:35. > :30:38.fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here
:30:39. > :30:44.to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our
:30:45. > :30:51.intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream
:30:52. > :30:56.politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you
:30:57. > :31:00.be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,
:31:01. > :31:09.correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit
:31:10. > :31:14.your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards
:31:15. > :31:19.the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of
:31:20. > :31:26.under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.
:31:27. > :31:31.But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote
:31:32. > :31:37.UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a
:31:38. > :31:42.referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but
:31:43. > :31:48.still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted
:31:49. > :31:54.for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about
:31:55. > :32:00.the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the
:32:01. > :32:05.political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address
:32:06. > :32:12.them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a
:32:13. > :32:18.treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely
:32:19. > :32:25.to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it
:32:26. > :32:32.will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a
:32:33. > :32:37.general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will
:32:38. > :32:43.run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust
:32:44. > :32:51.the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to
:32:52. > :32:53.2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a
:32:54. > :33:00.better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in
:33:01. > :33:06.a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about
:33:07. > :33:13.Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I
:33:14. > :33:19.do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see
:33:20. > :33:27.Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that
:33:28. > :33:30.is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way
:33:31. > :33:35.that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a
:33:36. > :33:43.majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect
:33:44. > :33:49.better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they
:33:50. > :33:52.have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national
:33:53. > :33:58.government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are
:33:59. > :34:03.voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want
:34:04. > :34:10.to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to
:34:11. > :34:16.see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your
:34:17. > :34:21.party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,
:34:22. > :34:28.like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015
:34:29. > :34:34.to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%
:34:35. > :34:43.behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a
:34:44. > :34:50.year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly
:34:51. > :34:54.deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.
:34:55. > :35:00.We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am
:35:01. > :35:04.a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be
:35:05. > :35:10.helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good
:35:11. > :35:14.friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best
:35:15. > :35:21.things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,
:35:22. > :35:27.you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a
:35:28. > :35:34.pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a
:35:35. > :35:39.market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should
:35:40. > :35:50.not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no
:35:51. > :35:55.pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say
:35:56. > :36:01.goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:36:02. > :36:04.Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election
:36:05. > :36:16.Hello again from the Midlands. I'm coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:17. > :36:20.Hello again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns and we're betwixt and
:36:21. > :36:23.between today. Looking back to the local elections and forward to
:36:24. > :36:25.tonight's European results, with Jack Dromey, Labour MP for
:36:26. > :36:28.Birmingham Erdington, Lorely Burt, Liberal Democrat MP for Solihull and
:36:29. > :36:38.Mark Garnier, Conservative MP for Wyre Forest in North Worcestershire.
:36:39. > :36:41.And later we'll also talk to UKIP's Jim Carver, as he stands on
:36:42. > :36:49.threshold of the European Parliament. Will he be among our
:36:50. > :36:53.seven new West Midlands MEPs? Let's start with the local elections. The
:36:54. > :36:56.UKIP surge duly delivered them 30 new councillors here, and the Greens
:36:57. > :37:01.are now the official opposition in Solihull. No wonder the three
:37:02. > :37:05.Parliamentary parties are all distinctly twitchy about their
:37:06. > :37:08.general election prospects. And yet the earthquake promised by Nigel
:37:09. > :37:14.Farage left the surface landscape here completely undisturbed. Labour,
:37:15. > :37:18.the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats held on to what they had.
:37:19. > :37:25.Nothing more, nothing less. Sian Grzeszczyk has the details.
:37:26. > :37:30.Capturing their moment in history, this was a night to remember for
:37:31. > :37:33.UKIP in Dudley. The great surge in our support in this election came
:37:34. > :37:36.from disenchanted Labour supporters. The old tale of UKIP just hurting
:37:37. > :37:40.the Tories and letting Labour in has been put to bed tonight. When these
:37:41. > :37:46.results are analysed, you will see Labour has suffered at our hands
:37:47. > :37:49.like they would never have dreamt. In Walsall, clearly a good night for
:37:50. > :37:53.tailors specialising in making purple suits ` maybe UKIP will be
:37:54. > :37:58.ordering a few more after picking up their first three seats here. UKIP
:37:59. > :38:03.will do what we have always said: we will push for getting the things
:38:04. > :38:08.that people want. We are looking to save money, but in the right places.
:38:09. > :38:11.We do not have to do as we are told by any puppeteers in Westminster, we
:38:12. > :38:17.can listen to the public and try to do what they want. Labour wanted to
:38:18. > :38:21.take overall control here. They didn't quite make it, but are the
:38:22. > :38:24.biggest party. At this moment in time, we are looking to take the
:38:25. > :38:28.administration over. And if people have the same views and ethics as
:38:29. > :38:32.us, then they can come and talk to us. But I think it is incumbent on
:38:33. > :38:35.us to actually look to form an administration in the council.
:38:36. > :38:39.Tamworth was another disappointment for Labour ` they were hoping to
:38:40. > :38:43.take it for the first time in a decade but mist out as UKIP picked
:38:44. > :38:47.up a seat and the Tories hung on. Labour are in a lot of trouble
:38:48. > :38:50.really. This is one of the principal target seats and they're at the end
:38:51. > :38:53.of an unpopular coalition, some would argue, and the Conservatives
:38:54. > :38:56.are still holding onto Tamworth quite comfortably, some would say.
:38:57. > :38:59.In Worcester, Labour will have to negotiate if they want to continue
:39:00. > :39:03.running the authority as they didn't win enough seats to run it on their
:39:04. > :39:07.own. We have held all our seats, in fact we have increased our votes in
:39:08. > :39:11.some of those. But the overall issue is that the people of Worcester have
:39:12. > :39:17.said it is a very tight vote here. And in most places, they have
:39:18. > :39:20.rejected the national party. UKIP mist out in the second city and
:39:21. > :39:23.Labour remains in power in Birmingham despite the rumbling row
:39:24. > :39:28.over the so`called Garden Tax which saw bags of Green waste in the
:39:29. > :39:31.streets. And in Birmingham Yardley, the Lib Dems performed strongly,
:39:32. > :39:37.giving hope to the sitting MP for next year's General Election. It is
:39:38. > :39:41.a marginal seat. It is obviously a marginal seat. One battles away, one
:39:42. > :39:44.has to say we have done the best we can to take the country forward from
:39:45. > :39:48.a difficult situation. Progress is being made, things are getting
:39:49. > :39:51.better, stick with us. It was even better news in Cheltenham where the
:39:52. > :39:54.Lib Dems retained control of their only council in the region and
:39:55. > :40:01.gained a seat from the Conservatives. It is a lot of hard
:40:02. > :40:05.work from a lot of people. We have a popular local Lib Dem MP in Martin
:40:06. > :40:08.Horwood and the feedback we are getting is that people like what the
:40:09. > :40:12.council is doing in terms of keeping the council tax down, but also in
:40:13. > :40:15.protecting services. I think across the town, that message has paid off.
:40:16. > :40:18.In Wyre Forest, Independent Health Concern had been the party of
:40:19. > :40:21.protest but not anymore: they lost two seats whilst UKIP took their
:40:22. > :40:25.first five councillors. It has been a very interesting experience today,
:40:26. > :40:28.to learn how UKIP are appearing even in local politics like this. I had
:40:29. > :40:37.hoped that maybe they wouldn't take votes from us, but obviously, they
:40:38. > :40:41.have done. So we are not immune. We are just the same as all the others.
:40:42. > :40:44.And finally to Solihull, where the Green Party made a breakthrough,
:40:45. > :40:47.picking up seats to replace the Liberal Democrats as the official
:40:48. > :40:49.opposition. You have seen in particular that Labour and Liberal
:40:50. > :40:53.Democrats are really suffering here in Solihull ` despite the fact that
:40:54. > :40:57.Labour should be growing, given that there is a General Election next
:40:58. > :40:59.year. But here in Solihull, there is no support or appetite for that. We
:41:00. > :41:02.bring something fresh, something different. And we present ourselves
:41:03. > :41:06.by offering positive policies, so people are choosing the Green Party.
:41:07. > :41:09.UKIP might not control any of our Midlands councils but it does now
:41:10. > :41:12.have a foothold in local Government here. The question is, is this a
:41:13. > :41:15.blip caused by the European Elections being held on the same
:41:16. > :41:22.day, or is it something longer`lasting which the traditional
:41:23. > :41:25.main parties will need to address? Sian Grzsezczyk, ending her report
:41:26. > :41:29.with the question that's suddenly dominating the political agenda. And
:41:30. > :41:41.so to tonight's European Election results. We heard John hemming early
:41:42. > :41:44.in the programme saying he's going to be taken soundings among his
:41:45. > :41:49.activist in Yardley on this question. Are you, in Solihull? I'm
:41:50. > :41:56.always interested to hear what people think. This petition, that
:41:57. > :42:02.has been signed I believe by 200 people out of 44,000 members...
:42:03. > :42:09.There are 220 members of Liberal Democrat friends of cake! So I do
:42:10. > :42:16.not think there is any move at all to that type of thing. Are you going
:42:17. > :42:22.to take this opportunity to pledge your full support to Nick Clegg as
:42:23. > :42:25.leader of the party? absolutely. He is our leader and has taken brave
:42:26. > :42:28.decisions to go into coalition with the Conservatives at a time of
:42:29. > :42:35.economic crisis, to put our head above the parapet when it came to
:42:36. > :42:37.the European elections. Labour, missing in action, conservatives
:42:38. > :42:44.hopelessly split papering over the cracks! We will come onto that.
:42:45. > :42:48.Obviously, a disastrous performance for Labour in the local elections
:42:49. > :42:54.given that the Conservatives are still in control in Tamworth. Ed
:42:55. > :42:57.Miliband hunter that Walsall was a must win but still no overall
:42:58. > :43:05.control. He did not get through in Worcester, Gloucester. It was a
:43:06. > :43:10.disaster. Are we talking about the same local elections? We gained
:43:11. > :43:13.three and 38 seats, the Conservatives lost 230. The Lib Dems
:43:14. > :43:19.lost nearly 300 and UKIP vote went down in percentage terms. If you
:43:20. > :43:28.look at how the results translate into the marginal areas, I could
:43:29. > :43:32.give many examples. We are on track to win the next general election.
:43:33. > :43:37.There is not much time left. The Ashcroft polls make a point that we
:43:38. > :43:42.are on track. But what comes out of this election loud and clear is the
:43:43. > :43:50.voice of discontent. And that was behind the UKIP vote. And we failed
:43:51. > :44:00.to listen to that discontent. We fail to listen to that at our peril.
:44:01. > :44:05.Look at the marginals, UKIP are apparently in a busy just Tories
:44:06. > :44:11.picking up seats. This really transform the 2`party battles we
:44:12. > :44:14.have seen. You have a problem... You asked foresees to UKIP? And yet all
:44:15. > :44:26.this time we have been worried about health concern. as Richard Taylor
:44:27. > :44:30.said, the biggest gain a UKIP vote has come from health concern. And
:44:31. > :44:37.their vote share has dropped from over 35% two years ago, to below 20%
:44:38. > :44:42.now. We of course, are not immune. It will be wrong of me to say we
:44:43. > :44:48.have held up as well. See what went walkabout fruitcakes then? You are
:44:49. > :44:53.more serious and respectful towards UKIP now? Is this a deathbed
:44:54. > :44:59.conversion? Of Kosovo more respectful. For the simple reason
:45:00. > :45:03.that 26% of people in Wyre Forest and across the country have said
:45:04. > :45:06.they are fed up of the old`fashioned style of politics. This I think is a
:45:07. > :45:13.fundamental point that we have to raise between the three others and
:45:14. > :45:17.this surge in outside parties. Moving away from old`style politics
:45:18. > :45:21.to include you as well. Look at the Greens who are really come on a
:45:22. > :45:26.bundle in Solihull. You can see how may be idealistic Lib Dem voters
:45:27. > :45:30.might find a happy home in the Green party and tainted by all those
:45:31. > :45:33.horrible decisions that you're associated within governments. It is
:45:34. > :45:40.true, we have had to mix a very tough decisions. We had a country on
:45:41. > :45:43.the verge of economic crisis, we came together with the
:45:44. > :45:47.Conservatives. We have now turned the economy around, it has been
:45:48. > :45:51.tough. We have not enjoyed having to do a lot of the things we have had
:45:52. > :45:59.to do. But our core Liberal Democrats have stuck with others and
:46:00. > :46:04.fair play to them. How do you answer the general disillusion that all of
:46:05. > :46:08.you acknowledge, that the electorate feels different with the established
:46:09. > :46:15.political parties. Bearing in mind it is said the electorate is never
:46:16. > :46:18.wrong. The majority of people feel that their lives are not getting
:46:19. > :46:22.better. Their living standards are not improving. They look at the rich
:46:23. > :46:26.and the powerful who they feel take advantage at their expense.
:46:27. > :46:29.Crucially, what we have to do, is to convince people that we are
:46:30. > :46:34.different and that we will make a difference in their lives on matters
:46:35. > :46:39.that matter to them. World of work issues, energy bills, bedroom tax,
:46:40. > :46:47.sorting out our housing problems, tackling, for example, soaring rents
:46:48. > :46:49.in the private rented sector. That is what we are seeking to do,
:46:50. > :46:52.because ultimately, we have two and I discontent with the view that says
:46:53. > :46:54.we are different and we can make a difference in your lives. But
:46:55. > :46:57.discontent certainly expresses itself in the sense that people
:46:58. > :47:01.inevitably, including in Wyre Forest, will be worse off going into
:47:02. > :47:04.the next general election than they were that I will be worse off going
:47:05. > :47:07.into the next general election than they were the time of the last one.
:47:08. > :47:12.At the question highlight a paradox. Liberal Democrats were the party of
:47:13. > :47:15.protest up and saw the last election. And for one reason or
:47:16. > :47:20.another, they became the party of Government. But where this is very
:47:21. > :47:23.productive coal is that you vote against the traditional political
:47:24. > :47:26.parties, but when they become successful, when they become a
:47:27. > :47:29.traditional political party and parts of the Establishment, you need
:47:30. > :47:37.to find another one to vote against. UKIP, if it is successful,
:47:38. > :47:40.will or could possibly become a party of Government. If they then
:47:41. > :47:43.deliver what they are promising to get out of Europe, then they will
:47:44. > :47:47.then have two answer the question to all those people who were lost their
:47:48. > :47:50.jobs as a result not been part of the single market. Then they will
:47:51. > :47:54.have this emperor was the rest of the parties have. Dementia meant you
:47:55. > :47:56.could potentially as a party of Government and this raises
:47:57. > :48:04.inevitably the question: Would you entertain the idea of some kind of
:48:05. > :48:07.packs? Or some kind of deal locally? Absolutely not. Under no
:48:08. > :48:11.circumstances. All traditional parties should hold their head up
:48:12. > :48:15.high and say we are the Conservatives, Lib Dems, whoever you
:48:16. > :48:20.want to be. Going into dodgy deals all mergers to try and persuade the
:48:21. > :48:25.electorate that actually, it is a kind of broad right or broad left I
:48:26. > :48:27.think is being dishonest with the electorate. I will stand on the
:48:28. > :48:33.Conservative manifesto and nobody else's. Thinking of the rise of the
:48:34. > :48:37.Greens, one of the lessons is that the Lib Dems retained control in
:48:38. > :48:42.Cheltenham and strengthen their position. They did not too bad in
:48:43. > :48:49.Yardley to. But you have to reconnect with local communities in
:48:50. > :48:56.a traditional manner. Meshed into local communities. we do. We
:48:57. > :49:03.retained three out of four of our seats that we were defending. So,
:49:04. > :49:07.you know, where we work we still win. The other one was a marginal
:49:08. > :49:13.seats which we lost to the Conservatives. So the Greens, for
:49:14. > :49:17.those ten councillors originally defected from the Lib Dems, so
:49:18. > :49:25.obviously, they get their reputation for working hard in the local area.
:49:26. > :49:28.Thank you very much indeed. And so to try's European results. Last time
:49:29. > :49:31.out in 2009, the Conservatives topped the West Midlands poll with
:49:32. > :49:35.two MEPs. Their third was added later thanks to the Lisbon Treaty.
:49:36. > :49:38.UKIP were the runners`up with two seats. Labour and the Liberal
:49:39. > :49:42.Democrats had just one each. This time, our region elects seven MEPs
:49:43. > :49:48.to the new European Parliament. Voters on Thursday had no fewer than
:49:49. > :49:52.11 different parties to choose from. We should know the results later
:49:53. > :49:55.tonight. Sian joins us again, live this time, from the International
:49:56. > :50:00.Convention Centre in Birmingham where the final declarations will
:50:01. > :50:06.take place. So Sian, when does the fun start? Thanks Patrick. Yes,
:50:07. > :50:09.counting is due to begin here at around six o'clock this evening
:50:10. > :50:16.across three sepaprate halls in the ICC. It is fairly quiet now that it
:50:17. > :50:19.will be a hive of activity later. This will be the centre to which all
:50:20. > :50:23.the region's local authorities will send their results. The declarations
:50:24. > :50:29.can't start until ten o'clock at the very earliest. That's when the polls
:50:30. > :50:33.close in the rest of Europe. Joining me now is Jim Carver, the number two
:50:34. > :50:36.candidate on UKIP's European list. 30 new councillors elected on
:50:37. > :50:44.Thursday in the local elections ` what do you put that down to? I put
:50:45. > :50:46.that down to the hard work of the West Midlands team. Right across the
:50:47. > :50:51.region we have been working very very hard and campaigning, listening
:50:52. > :50:57.to what people say. For some time now we have done this and it shows
:50:58. > :51:00.how strong the UKIP message is. Not just across the West Midlands, but
:51:01. > :51:04.across the UK. But you only won 30 out of 350 seats in the Midlands on
:51:05. > :51:10.Thursday ` it wasn't really the predicted earthquake was it? If you
:51:11. > :51:13.look where we are, we had 124 Second Place is as well. If you look where
:51:14. > :51:16.we are now to where we were before the election, this is a great
:51:17. > :51:21.footprints. If we were going to be challenged properly, we need to
:51:22. > :51:26.build a strong local Government footprints. I am delighted that the
:51:27. > :51:29.progress we are making is good. No representation at all in the big
:51:30. > :51:34.city contests in Birmingham and Coventry. Why do you think you're
:51:35. > :51:39.failing there? Very difficult, but we got some good second places. I am
:51:40. > :51:43.actually delighted, the glass is half full. I'm delighted how far we
:51:44. > :51:47.have progressed in Coventry and Birmingham. If you look at the other
:51:48. > :51:53.metropolitan areas, we got our first seats in Walsall. Look at Dudley,
:51:54. > :52:00.fantastic result. If you go further afield, up to Newcastle, again,
:52:01. > :52:06.fantastic results. How professional is your party? Is it all about
:52:07. > :52:09.UKIP's gift of the gab? There will always be the odd candidate to slip
:52:10. > :52:14.through the net. But we're working very, very hard on this and I'm
:52:15. > :52:17.convinced that the party has won so much more respect from the
:52:18. > :52:21.electorate. Because, during this campaign, there have been of the
:52:22. > :52:27.citrus and a UKIP campaign. And I think we have responded very
:52:28. > :52:30.strongly to that. There are some worrying allegations this morning
:52:31. > :52:37.against one of your councillors. One newly elected in Redditch. It is
:52:38. > :52:43.alleged they made racist and homophobic comments on social media.
:52:44. > :52:47.we distance ourselves a completely. Personally speaking, I am very angry
:52:48. > :52:50.at how this situation arose. We do not have a monopoly on this. If we
:52:51. > :52:57.look what has happened in the last fortnight there have been 14
:52:58. > :53:00.separate cases of alleged sexist, racist and homophobic remarks made
:53:01. > :53:04.by Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour. If you look at the London
:53:05. > :53:08.Borough of Newham, the Conservative party but as a generic leaflet
:53:09. > :53:14.challenging why there were so many gay people and local governments.
:53:15. > :53:20.Disgraceful! Should they be small became that of the party? as I said,
:53:21. > :53:24.there will be a full investigation. Officers will be open on Monday
:53:25. > :53:29.morning for us to look at it. I have no truck with any of those comments
:53:30. > :53:39.and will be distancing myself from fully after thorough investigation.
:53:40. > :53:42.Thank you Jim Carver. I spoke to the chief organiser earlier on, and she
:53:43. > :53:52.seems to think we should have all seven declarations in by 10:30pm. I
:53:53. > :54:02.will be done later on. Jim Carter exuding confidence there. It looks
:54:03. > :54:07.like you Lib Dems are out. we will have to see. Quite a small margin.
:54:08. > :54:14.Quite a small percentage margin will determine whether or not we get our
:54:15. > :54:19.MEP, Phil Bennion, re`elected. So bets are off at the moment. We will
:54:20. > :54:24.have two C. For the Conservatives of course, there is speculation in the
:54:25. > :54:27.Sunday Times that a number of Tory backbenchers are trying to put
:54:28. > :54:34.pressure on David Cameron to bring this referendum forward to 2016. So
:54:35. > :54:38.you keep driving policy on Europe? I do not think so. I don't think
:54:39. > :54:42.moving the election is addressing the point that the UK voters want. I
:54:43. > :54:46.think if you are going to do something pretty seismic, you would
:54:47. > :54:53.move it forward to next year and have it even this year may be. That
:54:54. > :55:00.will not happen because of various reasons. We would not be able to get
:55:01. > :55:05.a referendum through in parliaments, and so the earlier we can deliver as
:55:06. > :55:09.the Conservative party is after a general election when we are the
:55:10. > :55:14.biggest party, where we can then drive a referendum through
:55:15. > :55:18.Parliament. I have to say Jack, Lorely's position is abundantly
:55:19. > :55:25.clear on the referendum. But whenever I interview you and your
:55:26. > :55:34.candidates on your position on the referendum, it ends up sounding like
:55:35. > :55:40.the small print in a radio ad. It's not really a clear, clarion call is
:55:41. > :55:45.it? I can position is correct. We are in the EU and the message for
:55:46. > :55:49.the British electorate is clear: Were there to be any further
:55:50. > :55:53.significant changes, there should be a referendum. But secondly, right
:55:54. > :55:58.now, when we are trying to recover from the worst recession since the
:55:59. > :56:05.1930s, the idea that you destabilise our country and our economy by
:56:06. > :56:10.focusing on a referendum to get us out of Europe is crazy! The
:56:11. > :56:15.automotive sector in this region, a world`class success story, key to
:56:16. > :56:18.success is inward investment. Peter inward investment is membership of
:56:19. > :56:23.the European Union. Letters drill down into what is likely to happen
:56:24. > :56:27.this evening. At least, as far as the two big parties are concerned.
:56:28. > :56:30.For the Conservatives, there is a clear line of thought that the poll
:56:31. > :56:33.suggest you could finish third in the West Midlands which would be a
:56:34. > :56:38.pretty shocking commentary on your party, the lead party Government?
:56:39. > :56:41.Nada Stinger West Midlands, but across the UK. The is point that we
:56:42. > :56:45.come back to the fundamental argument that there is a challenging
:56:46. > :56:49.party against the political establishment, the political elites.
:56:50. > :56:52.I have canvassed pro`Europeans who said they would vote UKIP because
:56:53. > :56:56.they are fed up with the political machine. The interesting thing about
:56:57. > :57:07.all of this is that if UKIP does win, what we lose out as a country
:57:08. > :57:10.is a good bunch of MEPs who are prepared to engage in the debate and
:57:11. > :57:16.absolutely fight our corner in Europe. This is bad for Britain. And
:57:17. > :57:18.a similar question for you as the principal party of opposition in
:57:19. > :57:22.this country going into a general election less than a year away, if
:57:23. > :57:25.you fail to win the top share of vote here in the West Midlands and
:57:26. > :57:30.the UK, that is a dreadful commentary on the main part of
:57:31. > :57:34.opposition isn't it? Labour have not won a European election for 20
:57:35. > :57:37.years, yet we have one in general elections. Conversely, you have to
:57:38. > :57:41.go back to John Major to see a Conservative party that does not
:57:42. > :57:45.come first in the European elections. So I think the results
:57:46. > :57:48.are likely to be very bad for the Conservative party. I think that
:57:49. > :57:53.UKIP are likely to do very well. I think we will do well, as well. But
:57:54. > :57:56.there is no question of it: We saw it in the local elections and I
:57:57. > :58:00.think that will seat in the European elections as well. This will be the
:58:01. > :58:04.vehicle for a significant protest vote by those who are discontented.
:58:05. > :58:08.On the referendum, John hemming earlier in the programme we also
:58:09. > :58:16.heard him say he is a rebel on the referendum question. He wants one!
:58:17. > :58:21.So is there not a case just to toughen up your position and prove
:58:22. > :58:24.your all Euro enthusiasts? I do not think that is necessarily
:58:25. > :58:28.appropriate. We have gone into legislation with the Conservatives
:58:29. > :58:35.as part of the Government to guarantee, in law, that should there
:58:36. > :58:41.be a further move towards any lowering of sovereignty, then we
:58:42. > :58:49.would actually go and except a referendum. We must leave it there.
:58:50. > :59:03.Thank you all. Packet to Mark, Lorely and gym. And our special
:59:04. > :59:06."Vote 2014" European Election results programme begins at nine
:59:07. > :59:07.o'clock tonight on the BBC News Channel, then moving
:59:08. > :59:12.deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it
:59:13. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:26.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:27. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:38.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:39. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:01.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:02. > :00:06.poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this
:00:07. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:15.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:16. > :00:21.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:22. > :00:24.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:25. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:49.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:50. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:09.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:10. > :01:15.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:16. > :01:23.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:24. > :01:31.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:32. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:46.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:47. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:20.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:21. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:30.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:31. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:43.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:44. > :02:49.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:50. > :02:55.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:56. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:05.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:06. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:26.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:27. > :03:34.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:35. > :03:40.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:41. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:59.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:04:00. > :04:06.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:07. > :04:12.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:13. > :04:20.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:21. > :04:23.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:24. > :04:27.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:28. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:38.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:39. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:04.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:05. > :05:09.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:10. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:27.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:28. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:35.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:36. > :05:40.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:41. > :05:45.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:46. > :05:48.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:49. > :05:57.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:58. > :06:04.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:05. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:21.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:22. > :06:28.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:29. > :06:30.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:31. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:47.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:48. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :07:00.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:01. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:17.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:18. > :07:21.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:22. > :07:28.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:29. > :07:31.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:32. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:46.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:47. > :07:54.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:55. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:04.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:05. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:29.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:30. > :08:33.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:34. > :08:41.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:42. > :08:46.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:47. > :08:51.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:52. > :08:54.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:55. > :09:00.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:01. > :09:04.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:05. > :09:10.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:11. > :09:15.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:16. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:57.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:58. > :10:01.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:02. > :10:08.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:09. > :10:15.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:16. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:29.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:30. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :10:40.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:41. > :11:36.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:37. > :11:43.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:44. > :11:47.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:48. > :11:53.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:54. > :11:59.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:12:00. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:08.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you
:12:09. > :12:15.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You
:12:16. > :12:20.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:21. > :12:24.different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:25. > :12:29.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:30. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:39.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:40. > :12:44.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:45. > :12:49.abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:50. > :12:53.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:54. > :13:00.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:01. > :13:06.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:07. > :13:09.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:10. > :13:14.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:15. > :13:20.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:21. > :13:23.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:24. > :13:30.David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:31. > :13:35.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:36. > :14:12.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:13. > :14:15.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:20.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain