:00:36. > :00:37.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:38. > :00:44.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:45. > :00:46.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:47. > :00:51.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:52. > :00:58.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:00:59. > :01:01.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:02. > :01:04.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:05. > :01:13.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:14. > :01:22.In the Midlands, a star lind`up Ed Milband, Nigel Farage...
:01:23. > :01:24.We're in Dudley. Are they in the market for a Tory MP?
:01:25. > :01:26.And we too are live at their conference in Birmhngham,
:01:27. > :01:32.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:33. > :01:37.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:38. > :01:41.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:42. > :01:44.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:45. > :01:50.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:51. > :01:54.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:57.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:01:58. > :02:00.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:01. > :02:03.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:04. > :02:07.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:08. > :02:11.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:12. > :02:14.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:15. > :02:20.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:21. > :02:27.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:28. > :02:40.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:41. > :02:44.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:45. > :02:46.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:47. > :02:51.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:52. > :02:53.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:54. > :03:01.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:02. > :03:08.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:09. > :03:12.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:13. > :03:16.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:17. > :03:19.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:20. > :03:24.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:25. > :03:28.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:29. > :03:32.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:33. > :03:37.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:38. > :03:40.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:41. > :03:45.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:46. > :03:48.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:49. > :03:53.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:54. > :03:59.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:00. > :04:03.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:04. > :04:07.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:08. > :04:12.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:13. > :04:17.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:18. > :04:38.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:39. > :04:43.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:44. > :04:50.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:51. > :04:54.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:55. > :04:57.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:04:58. > :05:01.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:02. > :05:05.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:06. > :05:11.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:12. > :05:20.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:21. > :05:25.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:26. > :05:32.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:33. > :05:37.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:38. > :05:43.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:44. > :05:46.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:47. > :05:50.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:51. > :05:53.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:54. > :05:56.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:57. > :06:01.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:02. > :06:06.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:07. > :06:11.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:12. > :06:14.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:15. > :06:21.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:22. > :06:26.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:27. > :06:29.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10
:06:30. > :06:33.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:34. > :06:38.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:39. > :06:41.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:42. > :06:45.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:46. > :06:51.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:52. > :06:58.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:06:59. > :07:07.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:08. > :07:10.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:11. > :07:16.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:17. > :07:20.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:21. > :07:25.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:26. > :07:29.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:30. > :07:33.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:34. > :07:44.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:45. > :07:48.MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their
:07:49. > :07:52.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:53. > :07:56.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:57. > :08:00.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:01. > :08:03.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:04. > :08:10.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:11. > :08:14.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:15. > :08:22.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:23. > :08:26.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:27. > :08:31.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:32. > :08:35.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:36. > :08:41.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:42. > :08:44.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:45. > :08:51.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:52. > :08:54.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:55. > :08:59.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:00. > :09:02.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:03. > :09:06.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:07. > :09:11.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:12. > :09:14.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:15. > :09:18.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:19. > :09:23.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:24. > :09:30.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:31. > :09:37.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:38. > :09:40.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:41. > :09:47.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:48. > :09:50.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:51. > :09:56.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:57. > :10:00.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:01. > :10:07.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:08. > :10:12.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:13. > :10:18.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:19. > :10:30.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:31. > :10:36.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:37. > :10:39.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:40. > :10:43.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:44. > :10:49.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:50. > :10:54.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:55. > :10:58.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:10:59. > :11:01.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:02. > :11:05.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:06. > :11:11.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:12. > :11:16.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:17. > :11:19.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:20. > :11:23.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:24. > :11:26.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:27. > :11:29.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:30. > :11:34.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:35. > :11:38.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:39. > :11:43.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:44. > :11:49.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:50. > :11:53.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:54. > :11:59.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:00. > :12:04.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:05. > :12:10.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:11. > :12:15.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:16. > :12:19.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:20. > :12:23.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:24. > :12:28.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:29. > :12:33.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:34. > :12:37.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:38. > :12:41.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:42. > :12:46.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:47. > :12:51.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:52. > :12:58.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:12:59. > :13:01.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:02. > :13:07.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:08. > :13:18.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:19. > :13:21.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:22. > :13:26.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:27. > :13:30.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:31. > :13:33.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:34. > :13:47.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:48. > :13:50.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:51. > :13:54.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:55. > :14:00.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:01. > :14:06.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:07. > :14:09.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:10. > :14:14.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:15. > :14:21.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:22. > :14:25.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:26. > :14:29.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:30. > :14:33.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:34. > :14:42.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:43. > :14:45.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:46. > :14:51.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:52. > :14:57.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:58. > :15:09.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:10. > :15:17.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:18. > :15:22.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:23. > :15:27.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:28. > :15:31.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:32. > :15:36.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:37. > :15:42.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:43. > :15:48.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:49. > :15:54.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:55. > :16:00.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:01. > :16:09.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:10. > :16:13.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:14. > :16:21.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:22. > :16:27.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:28. > :16:32.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:33. > :16:38.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:39. > :16:45.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:46. > :16:50.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:51. > :16:56.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:57. > :17:02.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:03. > :17:07.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:08. > :17:13.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:14. > :17:18.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:19. > :17:24.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:25. > :17:30.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:31. > :17:33.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:34. > :17:38.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:39. > :17:42.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:43. > :17:47.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:48. > :17:54.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:55. > :17:59.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:00. > :18:03.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:04. > :18:07.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:08. > :18:13.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:14. > :18:17.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:18. > :18:24.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:25. > :18:30.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:31. > :18:34.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:35. > :18:39.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:40. > :18:44.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:45. > :18:48.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:49. > :18:54.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:55. > :19:00.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:01. > :19:05.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:06. > :19:11.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:12. > :19:16.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:17. > :19:21.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:22. > :19:26.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:27. > :19:30.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:31. > :19:36.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:37. > :19:41.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:42. > :19:45.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:46. > :19:54.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:55. > :19:58.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:19:59. > :20:06.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:07. > :20:12.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:13. > :20:16.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:17. > :20:20.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:21. > :20:28.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:29. > :20:32.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:33. > :20:36.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:37. > :20:41.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:42. > :20:46.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:47. > :20:51.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:52. > :20:58.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:20:59. > :21:03.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:04. > :21:11.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:12. > :21:16.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:17. > :21:19.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:20. > :21:26.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:27. > :21:33.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:34. > :21:47.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:48. > :21:52.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:53. > :22:11.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:12. > :22:19.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:20. > :22:23.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:24. > :22:28.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:29. > :22:34.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:35. > :22:39.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:40. > :22:45.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:46. > :22:50.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:51. > :22:56.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:57. > :23:01.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:02. > :23:05.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:06. > :23:12.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:13. > :23:16.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:17. > :23:21.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:22. > :23:26.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:27. > :23:30.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:31. > :23:34.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:35. > :23:38.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:39. > :23:44.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:45. > :23:52.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:53. > :23:58.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:23:59. > :24:07.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:08. > :24:14.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:15. > :24:18.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:19. > :24:25.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:26. > :24:30.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:31. > :24:34.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:35. > :24:38.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:39. > :24:42.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:43. > :24:46.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:47. > :24:51.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:52. > :24:56.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:57. > :25:02.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:03. > :25:07.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:08. > :25:12.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:13. > :25:17.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:18. > :25:23.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:24. > :25:31.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:32. > :25:35.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:36. > :25:39.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:40. > :25:45.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:46. > :25:49.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:50. > :25:55.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:56. > :26:00.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:01. > :26:04.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:05. > :26:09.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:10. > :26:14.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:15. > :26:21.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:22. > :26:26.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:27. > :26:31.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:32. > :26:36.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:37. > :26:40.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:41. > :26:44.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:45. > :26:50.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:51. > :26:55.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:56. > :26:59.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:00. > :27:05.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:06. > :27:14.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:15. > :27:19.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:20. > :27:24.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:25. > :27:28.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:29. > :27:33.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:34. > :27:40.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:41. > :27:45.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:46. > :27:50.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:51. > :27:58.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:27:59. > :28:03.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:04. > :28:08.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:09. > :28:13.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:14. > :28:18.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:19. > :28:22.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:23. > :28:26.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:27. > :28:30.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:31. > :28:34.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:35. > :28:39.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:40. > :28:45.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:46. > :28:48.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:49. > :28:50.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:51. > :28:53.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:54. > :29:01.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:02. > :29:06.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:07. > :29:11.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:12. > :29:16.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:17. > :29:20.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:21. > :29:24.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:25. > :29:29.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:30. > :29:32.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:33. > :29:36.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:37. > :29:48.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:49. > :29:52.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:53. > :30:00.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:01. > :30:02.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:03. > :30:08.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:09. > :30:13.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:14. > :30:17.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:18. > :30:21.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:22. > :30:26.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:27. > :30:30.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:31. > :30:36.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:37. > :30:39.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:40. > :30:44.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:45. > :30:48.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:49. > :30:54.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:55. > :30:58.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:30:59. > :31:03.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:04. > :31:05.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:06. > :31:09.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:10. > :31:17.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:18. > :31:22.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:23. > :31:24.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:25. > :31:35.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:36. > :31:39.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:40. > :31:43.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:44. > :31:47.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:48. > :31:51.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:52. > :31:54.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:55. > :32:03.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:04. > :32:08.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:09. > :32:14.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:15. > :32:22.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:23. > :32:26.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:27. > :32:32.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:33. > :32:36.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:37. > :32:40.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:41. > :32:45.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:46. > :32:48.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:49. > :32:54.in this country to do so in the House of Commons.
:32:55. > :32:58.in this country to do so in the Clarke, one of the world top experts
:32:59. > :33:02.on military strategy and history, he says there are very few important IS
:33:03. > :33:06.targets in northern Iraq, that they are all in Syria, and we are
:33:07. > :33:11.limiting ourselves to the periphery of the campaign. First of all, just
:33:12. > :33:15.because you are not doing everything does not mean you should not do
:33:16. > :33:18.something. Secondly, the United States and other countries are
:33:19. > :33:23.engaged in the action against targets in Syria. This is a
:33:24. > :33:28.coalition effort, with people doing different things. Thirdly, if we
:33:29. > :33:32.were to put their proposal to the House of Commons tomorrow, and it
:33:33. > :33:37.was defeated, we would not have achieved a great deal. You do not
:33:38. > :33:40.know it would have been defeated. The Labour Party has given no
:33:41. > :33:46.indication they would have supported that. So, you are hostage to the
:33:47. > :33:49.Labour Party? We have to win a democratic vote in the House of
:33:50. > :33:53.Commons, and the Labour Party is a very large part of the
:33:54. > :33:55.Commons, and the Labour Party is a Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:56. > :34:03.a policy which at the moment could be defeated
:34:04. > :34:03.a policy which at the moment could of so many of these military
:34:04. > :34:08.experts? Why should we trust the of so many of these military
:34:09. > :34:14.judgment of here today, gone tomorrow,
:34:15. > :34:48.judgment of here today, gone Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:49. > :34:52.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:53. > :34:54.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:55. > :35:00.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:01. > :35:06.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:07. > :35:07.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:08. > :35:14.comment on intelligence. Is even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:15. > :35:18.situation in Syria I direct threat to this country? Yes,
:35:19. > :38:50.situation in Syria I direct threat excluded action? No, we haven't
:38:51. > :38:53.week, it will come down to the bread and butter issues of the economy,
:38:54. > :38:57.employment opportunities and so on. After a few days. The Prime Minister
:38:58. > :39:00.who gets to his feet and, who will be next waiting in the wings? I
:39:01. > :39:08.don't know if there are any more but if there are, any moves are totally
:39:09. > :39:12.illogical. I know Mark Reckless has spoken about this and the rdality
:39:13. > :39:15.is, if people want that, thd only way you are going to get a
:39:16. > :39:20.referendum is by a Conservative majority government. Emma, `s a
:39:21. > :39:29.linguist yourself, what is the word, shard on Friday? I do think it is an
:39:30. > :39:32.uncomfortable moment for thd Conservative Party. We've h`d a sex
:39:33. > :39:40.scandal and a defection in the last 24 hours. An alleged sex sc`ndal.
:39:41. > :39:46.Excuse me. I think the publhc don't like divided party that parties
:39:47. > :39:50.They don't trust parties who cannot be led by their leader. Nigdl Farage
:39:51. > :39:54.says there may be some Labotr MPs who are thinking about it as well. I
:39:55. > :39:59.don't think that there are. I think the Labour Party is genuinely
:40:00. > :40:03.pro`European and in favour of our membership. There are a few but the
:40:04. > :40:08.Tories are split down the mhddle of Europe, I'm afraid.
:40:09. > :40:11.So how will this play out in those crucial marginal seats of otrs `
:40:12. > :40:14.Labour's tiny majority makes it a prime target for
:40:15. > :40:17.the Conservatives in pursuit of an overall Commons majority next May.
:40:18. > :40:19.Our BBC WM Political Reportdr Kathryn Stanczyszyn says it could
:40:20. > :40:33.have the makings of a genuine three`way contdst.
:40:34. > :40:41.The constituency of Dudley North. It has been Labour since its creation
:40:42. > :40:46.in 1997. This market town g`ve the party a bit of a scare at the last
:40:47. > :40:50.election. And the Tories, who managed to grab Dudley South in
:40:51. > :40:55.2010, are now looking to conquer the North as well. The Conservative vote
:40:56. > :41:00.has gone up by a feud thous`nd every election. Last time, we missed it by
:41:01. > :41:04.only 649 votes. We are confhdent now, with the failures of the Labour
:41:05. > :41:09.government for 13 years and the failure of delivery for the last ten
:41:10. > :41:14.years of the MP, Dudley needs change. But in a traditional Labour
:41:15. > :41:17.heartland, it seems Labour `` change may be further away than thd
:41:18. > :41:22.Conservatives would like. B`ck in May, they say of 26 marginal seats
:41:23. > :41:27.found that Labour would win all but one, including Dudley North. Out of
:41:28. > :41:33.1000 voters, 40% said they would vote Labour. That is up by 0% on the
:41:34. > :41:37.last general election. 24% said they would vote Conservative. Th`t's a
:41:38. > :41:51.13% drop. Lib Dems were on 4% of the vote, down by 7%. UKIP did well
:41:52. > :41:54.27%, up by 18%. Never mind the polls. Are the voters happy with the
:41:55. > :41:57.current government? Do you think the economy is looking at? They are
:41:58. > :42:01.doing well. UKIP will take ` lot of votes. UKIP did well in the European
:42:02. > :42:04.elections in Dudley. UKIP g`ined seven seats in the local eldctions
:42:05. > :42:09.in May so how much of a bitd can team UKIP take out of the m`in
:42:10. > :42:14.parties share? Vote for what you believe in. Don't worry. Vote for
:42:15. > :42:23.the policies and the candid`te you actually believe in and we can win.
:42:24. > :42:28.The Lib Dems said `` look sdt to become a distant fourth. Thdy've not
:42:29. > :42:32.selected a candidate yet. What does the current Labour incumbent make of
:42:33. > :42:39.his chances? I would never take anyone's support forged granted ``
:42:40. > :42:43.for granted. People listen to George Osborne saying the recession is
:42:44. > :42:48.over, it's all fine, but trx telling that to young people in Dudley. This
:42:49. > :42:51.one small battle ground is one of a key handful in the Midlands which
:42:52. > :42:56.will help decide the outcomd of next year 's war. Its would`be conquerors
:42:57. > :43:02.and say it is in the market for change.
:43:03. > :43:05.UKIP say that they have thehr tanks on Labour's lawn. That means they
:43:06. > :43:09.are really going to go after you in places like Dudley North. They could
:43:10. > :43:14.also damage your chances of targeting some of the Tory seats as
:43:15. > :43:18.well. I think the UKIP confdrence has shown that they have nothing to
:43:19. > :43:22.say to working people. I thhnk it is clear that actually, it's a party
:43:23. > :43:27.that is more Tory than the Tories. Nigel Farage is an ex`banker, a
:43:28. > :43:33.Thatcherite and now he is h`ving Tory MPs defect to UKIP. So the big
:43:34. > :43:37.threat is to you. The threat is across the political mainstream The
:43:38. > :43:41.important message is the economy is going to be the number one hssue.
:43:42. > :43:44.When you look at the back g`p between economic credibilitx between
:43:45. > :43:50.us and Labour, it's about 24 points. In that report, the effects of your
:43:51. > :43:57.much vaunted improvements in the economy are not being felt. It's
:43:58. > :44:01.going to take time and we appreciate her. Nobody, I think, is cl`iming
:44:02. > :44:07.that we are out of the woods on this but we do have... The poll suggests
:44:08. > :44:13.it is not working. Your slulp in fortunes was catastrophic. @n awful
:44:14. > :44:18.lot of people have not made up their minds. Most voters will now actually
:44:19. > :44:23.go to the polling booth and will make up their mind very, very late
:44:24. > :44:26.in the day. You do have a lot of slender majorities to defend. It's
:44:27. > :44:31.not just in Dudley. We have terrific MPs, like Ian Austin, who are
:44:32. > :44:36.engaging with their constittents on some of the most sensitive hssues
:44:37. > :44:40.like immigration. I think hd has got a good chance. We don't takd it for
:44:41. > :44:42.granted but he has a good chance because he is an excellent LP.
:44:43. > :44:44.Let's go back to the Conservative conference at the International
:44:45. > :44:48.Kathryn is there for us now, with a couple more hopefuls
:44:49. > :44:55.How do they rate their chances, Kathryn?
:44:56. > :45:02.Good morning. Delegates are starting to trickle in here at the ICC. They
:45:03. > :45:06.are a little bit jittery after a turbulent start but the party
:45:07. > :45:10.faithful are arriving, incltding some from the Midlands who `re
:45:11. > :45:14.hoping that they will help the party to that holy grail next year, a
:45:15. > :45:20.comfortable Conservative majority. I'm joined by two of those new
:45:21. > :45:27.faces. The prospective parlhamentary candidate for Cannock Chase and
:45:28. > :45:35.their PPC for Solihull, hophng to take that seat from the Lib Dems.
:45:36. > :45:39.Amanda, first of all, a high`profile resignation, a defection, a second
:45:40. > :45:44.defection to UKIP. That's not a good start. The UKIP effect, how much do
:45:45. > :45:48.you think it's going to havd an impact on Cannock Chase? I know the
:45:49. > :45:52.council in Cannock Chase, there are more UKIP councillors than
:45:53. > :45:56.conservative. In Cannock Ch`se, the decision for the electorate next
:45:57. > :46:00.year is the same position as those will take across the countrx. If our
:46:01. > :46:03.supporters vote UKIP next M`y, in the general election, what will
:46:04. > :46:10.happen is they will retain ` Labour MP. There is support for UKHP in
:46:11. > :46:14.your area. That is starting to filter through. You are not worried
:46:15. > :46:19.about that? What I want the electorate to do is look at what we
:46:20. > :46:25.have achieved for the area. We have reduced unemployment, we've got
:46:26. > :46:29.investment in the electrical improvements to the line. That is
:46:30. > :46:39.what people need to be thinking about. You are no danger `` stranger
:46:40. > :46:45.to headlines. Do you think this will have an impact for voters? What I
:46:46. > :46:48.want the electorate to do is look at what we have really achieved in the
:46:49. > :46:52.area. We have achieved so mtch. That is what I want to do. I want to be
:46:53. > :46:57.campaigning on local issues and be a voice for Cannock Chase. Julian in
:46:58. > :47:01.Solihull, there is a tiny m`rgin. It's just less than 200 votds. The
:47:02. > :47:07.Lib Dems have a stronghold there. Do you think the UKIP effect whll split
:47:08. > :47:13.the vote? I know the media love the idea of defections. It's a great
:47:14. > :47:17.story. I've knocked on many doors around Solihull and barely `nyone
:47:18. > :47:20.has mentioned defections. What matters to people as delivery of
:47:21. > :47:24.local services and a strengthening economy. People get it. If they vote
:47:25. > :47:27.for UKIP or if they vote for a Liberal Democrat in Solihull, they
:47:28. > :47:33.make it much more likely we end up with Ed Miliband walking into number
:47:34. > :47:36.ten. There was a poll which was favourable in May. The confdrence
:47:37. > :47:44.gets under way officially at two o'clock. A last conference speech
:47:45. > :47:45.from William Hague later. One of the talk is about the party's prospects
:47:46. > :47:51.and how will it... So all eyes on Birmingham
:47:52. > :47:53.and we've hardly shaken the dust I don't know if was those olissions
:47:54. > :47:59.from Ed Miliband's speech, but the mood in Labour's conferdnce hall
:48:00. > :48:03.was curiously muted for most of it. Was Coventry's Labour Leader Ann
:48:04. > :48:08.Lucas really just resting hdr eyes? Perhaps Mr Miliband should `lso have
:48:09. > :48:10.said something about the Because that's what they were all
:48:11. > :48:14.talking I asked him what was
:48:15. > :48:19.his approach to devolution for the Midlands in general,
:48:20. > :48:27.and Birmingham in particular. We want to see a lot more power
:48:28. > :48:36.devolved in Birmingham. Indded, we've announced plans to devolve
:48:37. > :48:38.power over important areas like skills, economic development,
:48:39. > :48:43.transport to city regions, to Birmingham and other places. We are
:48:44. > :48:47.far too centralised their country. We need councils like Birmingham but
:48:48. > :48:51.other councils to in the arda, to have those powers and come
:48:52. > :48:56.together. They need to exercise powers over resources. In tough
:48:57. > :49:15.times, that can make each pound go further. We are absolutely committed
:49:16. > :49:17.to that kind of devolution. That raises the question whether
:49:18. > :49:22.Birmingham is a fit and proper place to devolve powers to? Is thd
:49:23. > :49:28.authority they're fit for ptrpose? I think it is and I support the work
:49:29. > :49:32.being done in Birmingham. On Trojan horse, it's a deeply disturbing
:49:33. > :49:38.thing that has happened with school commissioner is now coming hn to
:49:39. > :49:41.improve the situation. This is a council operating in very dhfficult
:49:42. > :49:45.budgetary circumstances. Thd needs of Birmingham need to be looked at.
:49:46. > :49:47.Of course they do. On other things that will make life easier hn
:49:48. > :49:54.Birmingham is having more power and more resources of the that latter.
:49:55. > :49:58.If we can move on to all those marginal constituencies in the West
:49:59. > :50:02.Midlands, they face a particular challenge in that there are Tory
:50:03. > :50:06.targets but also, you will have to defend a number of very tight labour
:50:07. > :50:10.majorities. Look at Dudley North for example. A tiny majority of the
:50:11. > :50:13.Conservatives and UKIP are very much on the case there. It makes this
:50:14. > :50:17.general election even more of an unknown quantity. Of course it is
:50:18. > :50:22.uncertain but what we've done at this conference is set out our plan
:50:23. > :50:24.for the future, including for the West Midlands. A higher minhmum
:50:25. > :50:28.wage, more money for the he`lth service paid for not by working
:50:29. > :50:31.families but by those at thd top of our society, plans for more
:50:32. > :50:36.apprenticeships which our young people desperately need, to freeze
:50:37. > :50:39.our energy bill is, build more homes. What you have heard from
:50:40. > :50:45.later this week is a genuind plan for the future. You've menthoned the
:50:46. > :50:48.health service. There are a couple of marginals, Stafford and Redditch,
:50:49. > :50:52.where there are local hospital issues which are playing very
:50:53. > :50:57.strongly that with experts warning that they could be a ?50 billion
:50:58. > :51:02.shortfall in health funding during the lifetime of the next Parliament.
:51:03. > :51:08.You cannot wave a cheque book even with your ?2.5 billion at hospitals.
:51:09. > :51:11.The dash something radical needs to be done. Things need to change but
:51:12. > :51:16.the most important thing is we need to improve services in the
:51:17. > :51:21.community. If we do that, GP services, services for the dlderly,
:51:22. > :51:25.that will take pressure off hospitals. We do have a plan. That
:51:26. > :51:29.is the plan be unveiled this week. It will make for a better hdalth
:51:30. > :51:31.service, more doctors, nursds, care workers and midwives.
:51:32. > :51:35.Still no word of Labour bringing their mahn autumn
:51:36. > :51:41.While we hear the Conservathves have committed to three mord here.
:51:42. > :51:45.I raised the English question because it was one of the
:51:46. > :51:52.conspicuous omissions from his speech. There was an air of
:51:53. > :51:55.unreality, given that 80% of the people, according to polls, feel
:51:56. > :52:00.very strongly about it. Davhd Cameron is making great plax on it.
:52:01. > :52:07.We have been very clear that we firstly need to give time to English
:52:08. > :52:12.people. The Scottish people had to wonder half years to discuss their
:52:13. > :52:15.future and an 85% turnout at the referendum which was remark`ble I
:52:16. > :52:21.think what is really import`nt at this debate is that we disctss not
:52:22. > :52:24.what powers Westminster MPs have in Westminster but what powers local
:52:25. > :52:28.authorities and communities have and how we push power down to a local
:52:29. > :52:35.level. Those are the sorts of things that people are talking to le about
:52:36. > :52:38.an hour constituencies. I touched on this in the interview with Lr
:52:39. > :52:44.Miliband, whether Birminghal for example as a fit and proper place to
:52:45. > :52:46.devolve powers to, given as we have just seen the education minhster
:52:47. > :52:51.going in there. There are a number of crises. This is a diffictlt time
:52:52. > :52:56.to start talking about re`elpowering the great cities. I think on a
:52:57. > :52:59.national level it is import`nt we address the issue. I don't think we
:53:00. > :53:02.can kick it into the long grass or forget about it, which is what I
:53:03. > :53:07.think Ed Miliband will do. The second point is, I know as ` Black
:53:08. > :53:11.Country and P, this is something that is said to me time and time
:53:12. > :53:13.again. We don't want to see the Black Country in the shadow
:53:14. > :53:22.Birmingham. We went a strangler country voice which is reprdsented.
:53:23. > :53:28.Isn't this another issue? The English question, UKIP look more and
:53:29. > :53:35.more like the English National party and they can trump your argtment.
:53:36. > :53:38.It's a robust issue. We cannot duck it as an issue. I've had it raised
:53:39. > :53:41.with me on the doorstep as well over the weekend. It was an issue
:53:42. > :53:45.which was raised with me ag`in and again. We need to have some talent
:53:46. > :53:46.of parity. For the moment, thank you very much.
:53:47. > :53:49.Earlier we were talking about the potential UKIP Factor
:53:50. > :53:53.But how will it affect the outcome elsewhere in our swing seats?
:53:54. > :53:55.Elizabeth Glinka caught up with their leader, Nigel Farage
:53:56. > :53:58.on a rooftop somewhere in Westminster, just before he set off
:53:59. > :54:08.What, she wondered, was his view of English devolution?
:54:09. > :54:15.The first thing we got to do is make sure we have an English parliament
:54:16. > :54:19.that sits in Westminster and where Scottish MPs are not voting on this
:54:20. > :54:22.legislation. It is outrageots that our youngsters pay tuition fees
:54:23. > :54:27.because of Scottish votes in Westminster ten years ago. That
:54:28. > :54:31.cannot go on. Let's sort out the relationship between the cotntry 's
:54:32. > :54:33.first and then we will talk about devolution with England.
:54:34. > :54:39.Specifically for the voters of the West Midlands, do you have `ny ideas
:54:40. > :54:43.about what that might mean for them? I actually think there is an
:54:44. > :54:45.argument that says the county councils or the Metropolitan
:54:46. > :54:49.authorities could have a bigger say over their own lives. Beford the
:54:50. > :54:54.mid`80s, it was local authorities that said business rates. How you
:54:55. > :54:58.voted in a local election in those days fundamentally affected the
:54:59. > :55:02.business rates that paid. I think powers like that could be rdturned
:55:03. > :55:05.to County Council level. Level. I speak to is a major issue in the
:55:06. > :55:13.West Midlands. It is somethhng you are not keen on. `` HS2. But we
:55:14. > :55:16.could have an engineering college which could create thousands of
:55:17. > :55:21.jobs, how do you sell your opposition to the people of the
:55:22. > :55:25.region? That sounds fine and dandy until you understand we are up
:55:26. > :55:29.against European procurement rules. There is no guarantee that `nyone
:55:30. > :55:34.that works on the project whll actually come from this country
:55:35. > :55:37.When we have the Olympics in London, lots and lots of jobs were
:55:38. > :55:41.created but hardly any of them were created for local people. Some of
:55:42. > :55:45.the estimates are for 50,000 jobs to not telling me that everythhng one
:55:46. > :55:50.of those jobs would be filldd by a foreign worker. One hears bhg claims
:55:51. > :55:53.made for what it will do for the economy. I'm deeply sceptic`l about
:55:54. > :55:57.those claims but more importantly, I don't think the new vast sw`thes
:55:58. > :56:03.being cut through the West Lidlands in the form of this railway line
:56:04. > :56:07.something that people actually want. Another issue on which UKIP are
:56:08. > :56:09.making great play, particul`rly in areas like Warwickshire and
:56:10. > :56:13.Worcestershire where you have marginal seats. They are making the
:56:14. > :56:18.running on high`speed rail. They are talking the talk on it but
:56:19. > :56:22.ultimately, we walked the w`lk. The reality is, in our constitudncies,
:56:23. > :56:26.you see Indian investment coming into the UK. The UK is a grdat place
:56:27. > :56:32.to invest. We have skills hdre and the right mindset. Why wouldn't
:56:33. > :56:37.people come and invest? What is the position under an incoming Labour
:56:38. > :56:41.government? In this studio, Ed balls was extremely cool on the project.
:56:42. > :56:44.There have been concerns from those who support the project that a
:56:45. > :56:50.Labour government would go cool `` Balls. We have been clear that we
:56:51. > :56:54.would support it. That is not a blank cheque so we need to bear down
:56:55. > :56:57.on the costs. What is reallx important, and I would agred with
:56:58. > :57:01.Paul on this matter, is that what we need to do in the West Midl`nds and
:57:02. > :57:07.the Black Country in partictlar is to attract jobs and investmdnt.
:57:08. > :57:12.High`speed rail and our membership of the EU is key to that. Wd have a
:57:13. > :57:16.country which is to focus on London and the south`east. We need to make
:57:17. > :57:17.sure those opportunities ard spread throughout our regions, including
:57:18. > :57:19.the Black Country. Now our regular round`up
:57:20. > :57:21.of the political week It's brought to us today by
:57:22. > :57:27.BBC Midlands Today's Amy Cole. Shropshire's direct train sdrvice to
:57:28. > :57:29.London will be restored Virgin's plans have been signed off
:57:30. > :57:35.by the Office of Rail Regul`tion. The former West Midlands MEP Lord
:57:36. > :57:38.Cashman was appointed as an envoy on lesbian, gay, bisexual and
:57:39. > :57:41.transgender issues by Ed Miliband at Sir Mike Tomlinson has also got
:57:42. > :57:49.a new job. He'll be the Education Commhssioner
:57:50. > :57:51.for Birmingham overseeing the schools in the wake
:57:52. > :57:55.of the Trojan Horse affair. Lord Heseltine endorsed
:57:56. > :57:58.the new Skills Hub website. It's been set up by
:57:59. > :57:59.Greater Birmingham Chamber of Commerce and a consortiul of
:58:00. > :58:03.colleges to help employers to get And demonstrators opposed to
:58:04. > :58:09.military action in Iraq gathered in Birmingham
:58:10. > :58:11.as MPs were recalled to the Commons to approve British involvemdnt in
:58:12. > :58:27.air strikes against Islamic State. Bramleys predominately tend to call
:58:28. > :58:49.it the Islamic State. That hs what it is. It has no place in the of
:58:50. > :58:53.Islam. `` Brummies. I asked him what his solution was. He was lecturing
:58:54. > :58:57.us and being fairly aggresshve and shouting, as he tends to do, about
:58:58. > :59:01.what we were planning to do. I think this is a very sensitive issue and a
:59:02. > :59:05.difficult issue. It is one H voted for with a heavy heart. All I would
:59:06. > :59:09.say is there are great risks to doing nothing. There are risks that
:59:10. > :59:13.risks of turning our backs on the Iraqi people. The terrorists would
:59:14. > :59:16.gain even more ground. I was questioning him in terms of his
:59:17. > :59:20.solution. There are people who are uneasy about it and have serious
:59:21. > :59:27.concerns. I think there are great risks to not happen that acting
:59:28. > :59:31.Isn't there a greater risk of causing more radicalisation at
:59:32. > :59:36.home. Also acting as a recrtiting sergeant. This was raised in the
:59:37. > :59:40.chamber on a couple of occasions. The point was made again and again
:59:41. > :59:51.that it has to be seen in the context of what I saw was doing ``
:59:52. > :59:57.ISIL. British citizens are `ware that they are killing Muslils,
:59:58. > :00:01.anybody who fundamentally dhsagrees with them. Psychopathic is ht and it
:00:02. > :00:07.has been used and I think that's totally apt. This group is `gainst
:00:08. > :00:08.those people who take a contrary view to them. It's not just an
:00:09. > :00:13.Islamic issue here. Uppal. Next Sunday we'll have
:00:14. > :00:17.an interview with David Camdron And I'll also be talking to
:00:18. > :00:19.the Deputy Prime Minister, the Liberal Democrat leader
:00:20. > :00:21.Nick Clegg, as he prepares for We'll have more on Midlands Today,
:00:22. > :00:25.which also celebrates its 50th anniversary tomorrow,
:00:26. > :00:27.at 6.30pm here on BBC One. This though is where we rettrn live
:00:28. > :00:30.to Birmingham's convention centre, My thanks to you both. Andrew, back
:00:31. > :01:00.to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with
:01:01. > :01:05.the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come
:01:06. > :01:11.here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in
:01:12. > :01:17.their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked
:01:18. > :01:22.out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets
:01:23. > :01:28.under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an
:01:29. > :01:33.article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the
:01:34. > :01:40.heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as
:01:41. > :01:45.a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running
:01:46. > :01:50.for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a
:01:51. > :01:55.five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about
:01:56. > :02:01.campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous
:02:02. > :02:08.Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong
:02:09. > :02:24.turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to
:02:25. > :02:33.UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do
:02:34. > :02:52.you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?
:02:53. > :03:11.Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many
:03:12. > :03:20.more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any
:03:21. > :03:23.more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant
:03:24. > :03:29.sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,
:03:30. > :03:33.namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I
:03:34. > :03:41.think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because
:03:42. > :03:45.that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be
:03:46. > :03:57.a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there
:03:58. > :04:02.could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two
:04:03. > :04:07.labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.
:04:08. > :04:15.How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after
:04:16. > :04:18.he had a really bad performance that his television performance was
:04:19. > :04:22.suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed
:04:23. > :04:26.Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches
:04:27. > :04:30.is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing
:04:31. > :04:35.for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore
:04:36. > :04:38.failed the Prime Minister test. I think the real problem for him was
:04:39. > :04:42.forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues
:04:43. > :04:48.which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and
:04:49. > :04:52.inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if
:04:53. > :04:55.you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really
:04:56. > :05:01.not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.
:05:02. > :05:07.Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the
:05:08. > :05:10.nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by
:05:11. > :05:16.heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn
:05:17. > :05:19.70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to
:05:20. > :05:24.sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just
:05:25. > :05:27.beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,
:05:28. > :05:32.but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked
:05:33. > :05:36.once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the
:05:37. > :05:39.derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,
:05:40. > :05:45.they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the
:05:46. > :05:50.omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing
:05:51. > :05:54.seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is
:05:55. > :06:03.almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour
:06:04. > :06:09.and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.
:06:10. > :06:12.You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the
:06:13. > :06:17.borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,
:06:18. > :06:20.because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference
:06:21. > :06:25.will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's
:06:26. > :06:29.speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more
:06:30. > :06:33.global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at
:06:34. > :06:41.this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up
:06:42. > :06:47.at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to
:06:48. > :06:54.change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they
:06:55. > :06:59.would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in
:07:00. > :07:03.double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his
:07:04. > :07:08.party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,
:07:09. > :07:12.come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It
:07:13. > :07:17.will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.
:07:18. > :07:23.When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,
:07:24. > :07:27.with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in
:07:28. > :07:32.the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I
:07:33. > :07:37.may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless
:07:38. > :07:41.this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was
:07:42. > :07:44.talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate
:07:45. > :07:48.because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the
:07:49. > :07:52.deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be
:07:53. > :07:56.really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the
:07:57. > :08:00.kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,
:08:01. > :08:03.Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat
:08:04. > :08:08.and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think
:08:09. > :08:14.today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to
:08:15. > :08:17.say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It
:08:18. > :08:23.is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party
:08:24. > :08:28.somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.
:08:29. > :08:34.But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,
:08:35. > :08:39.for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight
:08:40. > :08:47.for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do
:08:48. > :08:58.not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold
:08:59. > :09:06.on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was
:09:07. > :09:10.going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.
:09:11. > :09:15.But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One
:09:16. > :09:20.problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at
:09:21. > :09:23.economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people
:09:24. > :09:29.love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about
:09:30. > :09:33.relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will
:09:34. > :09:37.be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the
:09:38. > :09:39.conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable
:09:40. > :09:44.is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the
:09:45. > :09:50.Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay
:09:51. > :09:55.in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party
:09:56. > :10:01.to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we
:10:02. > :10:04.are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and
:10:05. > :10:09.people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will
:10:10. > :10:14.not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is
:10:15. > :10:22.happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where
:10:23. > :10:28.the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere
:10:29. > :10:32.near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:33. > :10:36.win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,
:10:37. > :10:41.it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in
:10:42. > :10:46.a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with
:10:47. > :10:50.cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister
:10:51. > :10:54.more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the
:10:55. > :10:58.gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his
:10:59. > :11:02.rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron
:11:03. > :11:15.Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I
:11:16. > :11:18.hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far
:11:19. > :11:23.with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I
:11:24. > :11:28.know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a
:11:29. > :11:31.wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are
:11:32. > :11:36.worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about
:11:37. > :11:39.the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the
:11:40. > :11:42.economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet
:11:43. > :11:47.there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.
:11:48. > :11:56.They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has
:11:57. > :12:03.to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of
:12:04. > :12:08.the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does
:12:09. > :12:12.not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him
:12:13. > :12:17.do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of
:12:18. > :12:25.driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice
:12:26. > :12:29.people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically
:12:30. > :12:34.quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is
:12:35. > :12:39.himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want
:12:40. > :12:42.to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do
:12:43. > :12:46.not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from
:12:47. > :12:51.the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,
:12:52. > :12:57.Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the
:12:58. > :13:01.nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get
:13:02. > :13:05.into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only
:13:06. > :13:10.win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All
:13:11. > :13:19.teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not
:13:20. > :13:23.think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think
:13:24. > :13:28.this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we
:13:29. > :13:34.can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not
:13:35. > :13:39.buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right
:13:40. > :13:43.today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.
:13:44. > :13:48.We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.
:13:49. > :13:51.I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour
:13:52. > :13:55.conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it
:13:56. > :14:24.is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in
:14:25. > :14:39.sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it
:14:40. > :14:42.with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,
:14:43. > :14:51.but it's too late! of statutory press regulation in
:14:52. > :14:56.sponge cake may be a bridge too far.