:00:40. > :00:41.Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:43.Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.
:00:44. > :00:45.Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum
:00:46. > :00:49.by forcing a second vote before we leave?
:00:50. > :00:52.Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be
:00:53. > :00:56.pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".
:00:57. > :00:59.Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business
:01:00. > :01:05.It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"
:01:06. > :01:07.but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,
:01:08. > :01:16.We are leaving the EU but after one year of ringing the changes,
:01:17. > :01:27.do we have a golden future in Britain's Brexit capital?
:01:28. > :01:31.And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer
:01:32. > :01:34.and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,
:01:35. > :01:42.They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.
:01:43. > :01:48.First this morning, some say they will fight
:01:49. > :01:52.for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those
:01:53. > :01:55.who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British
:01:56. > :01:58.people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -
:01:59. > :02:01.The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have
:02:02. > :02:03.tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.
:02:04. > :02:06.The original resolution called on the European Parliament
:02:07. > :02:09.to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens
:02:10. > :02:24.of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".
:02:25. > :02:30.He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish
:02:31. > :02:33.must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%
:02:34. > :02:45.The amendments were proposed in October,
:02:46. > :02:48.but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels
:02:49. > :02:50.Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.
:02:51. > :02:52.The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.
:02:53. > :02:55.Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed
:02:56. > :03:04.Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try
:03:05. > :03:10.and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was
:03:11. > :03:13.simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months
:03:14. > :03:19.ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different
:03:20. > :03:25.newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort
:03:26. > :03:30.to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to
:03:31. > :03:35.rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You
:03:36. > :03:41.would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?
:03:42. > :03:46.I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory
:03:47. > :03:52.referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a
:03:53. > :03:55.questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,
:03:56. > :03:59.it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking
:04:00. > :04:03.the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a
:04:04. > :04:08.very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who
:04:09. > :04:12.said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save
:04:13. > :04:15.money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and
:04:16. > :04:32.our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But
:04:33. > :04:35.your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is
:04:36. > :04:37.to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would
:04:38. > :04:40.respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to
:04:41. > :04:43.be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain
:04:44. > :04:47.money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government
:04:48. > :04:52.said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need
:04:53. > :04:59.to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the
:05:00. > :05:02.single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options
:05:03. > :05:08.should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will
:05:09. > :05:13.be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more
:05:14. > :05:21.illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a
:05:22. > :05:26.report about future treaty amendments down the road for years
:05:27. > :05:35.to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side
:05:36. > :05:40.reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will
:05:41. > :05:48.you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the
:05:49. > :05:55.text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if
:05:56. > :05:59.the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you
:06:00. > :06:06.mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,
:06:07. > :06:10.was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of
:06:11. > :06:18.the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European
:06:19. > :06:22.Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of
:06:23. > :06:26.action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and
:06:27. > :06:31.disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to
:06:32. > :06:35.think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you
:06:36. > :06:41.might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be
:06:42. > :06:45.clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European
:06:46. > :06:52.Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am
:06:53. > :06:57.acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating
:06:58. > :07:01.things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out
:07:02. > :07:05.to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are
:07:06. > :07:11.going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the
:07:12. > :07:16.shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,
:07:17. > :07:20.in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is
:07:21. > :07:27.implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about
:07:28. > :07:34.whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because
:07:35. > :07:39.that has to take account of the future framework of relationships
:07:40. > :07:42.with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That
:07:43. > :07:46.means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be
:07:47. > :07:50.outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very
:07:51. > :07:55.damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the
:07:56. > :07:59.rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the
:08:00. > :08:03.customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give
:08:04. > :08:07.us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is
:08:08. > :08:11.not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the
:08:12. > :08:15.results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see
:08:16. > :08:18.that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the
:08:19. > :08:23.divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget
:08:24. > :08:27.for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single
:08:28. > :08:32.market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will
:08:33. > :08:36.know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be
:08:37. > :08:42.damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a
:08:43. > :08:46.minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider
:08:47. > :08:50.the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to
:08:51. > :08:55.leave it there but thank you for joining us.
:08:56. > :09:02.Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what
:09:03. > :09:07.happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview
:09:08. > :09:11.illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach
:09:12. > :09:18.taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one
:09:19. > :09:20.breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action
:09:21. > :09:24.subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are
:09:25. > :09:29.sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to
:09:30. > :09:34.happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists
:09:35. > :09:39.on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public
:09:40. > :09:46.opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together
:09:47. > :09:53.to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take
:09:54. > :09:57.moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every
:09:58. > :10:07.single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether
:10:08. > :10:11.it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not
:10:12. > :10:17.think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in
:10:18. > :10:21.the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to
:10:22. > :10:25.question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these
:10:26. > :10:29.things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he
:10:30. > :10:33.wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you
:10:34. > :10:39.can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But
:10:40. > :10:43.the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad
:10:44. > :10:50.deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is
:10:51. > :10:54.implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we
:10:55. > :10:58.are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a
:10:59. > :11:03.minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going
:11:04. > :11:08.to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,
:11:09. > :11:12.six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage
:11:13. > :11:16.Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,
:11:17. > :11:21.or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of
:11:22. > :11:28.2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa
:11:29. > :11:39.May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that
:11:40. > :11:48.Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I
:11:49. > :11:53.recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical
:11:54. > :11:59.drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't
:12:00. > :12:04.think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very
:12:05. > :12:08.long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we
:12:09. > :12:12.would stay in the customs union after Brexit.
:12:13. > :12:18.There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff
:12:19. > :12:24.setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at
:12:25. > :12:27.all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it
:12:28. > :12:32.is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the
:12:33. > :12:40.customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the
:12:41. > :12:44.cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a
:12:45. > :12:48.member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would
:12:49. > :12:52.make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs
:12:53. > :12:56.union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as
:12:57. > :13:00.binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would
:13:01. > :13:05.suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to
:13:06. > :13:09.do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that
:13:10. > :13:15.is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his
:13:16. > :13:24.opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in
:13:25. > :13:27.Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury
:13:28. > :13:30.PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is
:13:31. > :13:37.Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the
:13:38. > :13:44.customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the
:13:45. > :13:49.customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is
:13:50. > :13:54.proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do
:13:55. > :14:02.free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade
:14:03. > :14:05.deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment
:14:06. > :14:09.but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade
:14:10. > :14:13.deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line
:14:14. > :14:18.for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought
:14:19. > :14:22.Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to
:14:23. > :14:28.suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an
:14:29. > :14:36.argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he
:14:37. > :14:40.wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet
:14:41. > :14:45.about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country
:14:46. > :14:49.we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,
:14:50. > :14:52.but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look
:14:53. > :14:56.at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is
:14:57. > :15:03.happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I
:15:04. > :15:08.think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it
:15:09. > :15:15.becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we
:15:16. > :15:16.are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this
:15:17. > :15:20.country. So, we've had a warning this week
:15:21. > :15:24.that it could take ten years to do a trade deal
:15:25. > :15:26.with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand
:15:27. > :15:28.trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first
:15:29. > :15:30.countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal
:15:31. > :15:33.with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told
:15:34. > :15:36.us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film
:15:37. > :15:52.for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High
:15:53. > :15:54.Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined
:15:55. > :15:56.the European Union, Now I'm in the job,
:15:57. > :16:05.the UK is leaving. Australia supported
:16:06. > :16:06.Britain remaining a member of the European Union,
:16:07. > :16:09.but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,
:16:10. > :16:15.we hope that Britain will get on with the process
:16:16. > :16:19.of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make
:16:20. > :16:23.the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,
:16:24. > :16:29.Australia approached the British Government
:16:30. > :16:32.with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,
:16:33. > :16:35.to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian
:16:36. > :16:41.governments have already established a working group to explore a future,
:16:42. > :16:44.ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide
:16:45. > :16:56.great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase
:16:57. > :17:01.British-made cars for less We would give British
:17:02. > :17:07.households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,
:17:08. > :17:13.so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce
:17:14. > :17:16.when the equivalent British or Australian households would have
:17:17. > :17:23.access to British products Free-trade agreements
:17:24. > :17:36.are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source
:17:37. > :17:40.of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests
:17:41. > :17:46.over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement
:17:47. > :17:49.would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade
:17:50. > :17:54.agreements are not just about trade and investment,
:17:55. > :17:58.they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations
:17:59. > :18:02.often work more closely together in other fields including security,
:18:03. > :18:06.the spread of democracy We may have preferred
:18:07. > :18:20.the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK
:18:21. > :18:22.to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can
:18:23. > :18:25.be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade
:18:26. > :18:27.agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement
:18:28. > :18:29.with the United States This is one of the reasons why
:18:30. > :18:41.the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years
:18:42. > :18:44.and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's
:18:45. > :18:55.vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help
:18:56. > :19:24.in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The
:19:25. > :19:28.Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal
:19:29. > :19:34.with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is
:19:35. > :19:39.complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.
:19:40. > :19:44.The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual
:19:45. > :19:49.trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with
:19:50. > :19:55.the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary
:19:56. > :20:00.examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking
:20:01. > :20:04.already, we have set up a joint working group with the British
:20:05. > :20:07.Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what
:20:08. > :20:13.questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have
:20:14. > :20:19.formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no
:20:20. > :20:23.free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long
:20:24. > :20:30.and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian
:20:31. > :20:35.agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its
:20:36. > :20:39.access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,
:20:40. > :20:45.is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a
:20:46. > :20:49.scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union
:20:50. > :20:54.and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.
:20:55. > :20:59.But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but
:21:00. > :21:04.one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain
:21:05. > :21:09.leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has
:21:10. > :21:14.always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not
:21:15. > :21:19.happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European
:21:20. > :21:25.Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality
:21:26. > :21:28.which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international
:21:29. > :21:33.relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.
:21:34. > :21:37.It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose
:21:38. > :21:43.that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped
:21:44. > :21:45.out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a
:21:46. > :21:51.free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is
:21:52. > :21:57.about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless
:21:58. > :22:02.you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that
:22:03. > :22:06.case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and
:22:07. > :22:10.that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of
:22:11. > :22:16.negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up
:22:17. > :22:20.nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this
:22:21. > :22:25.free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other
:22:26. > :22:30.than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both
:22:31. > :22:33.free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not
:22:34. > :22:38.think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the
:22:39. > :22:43.UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to
:22:44. > :22:47.Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot
:22:48. > :22:54.of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years
:22:55. > :22:59.is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has
:23:00. > :23:04.made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal
:23:05. > :23:07.is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin
:23:08. > :23:13.and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we
:23:14. > :23:16.returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country
:23:17. > :23:24.rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we
:23:25. > :23:27.will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the
:23:28. > :23:31.transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have
:23:32. > :23:37.other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate
:23:38. > :23:42.would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to
:23:43. > :23:45.achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a
:23:46. > :23:52.free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is
:23:53. > :23:57.more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with
:23:58. > :24:01.China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and
:24:02. > :24:10.they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing
:24:11. > :24:13.with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think
:24:14. > :24:20.Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there
:24:21. > :24:24.is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and
:24:25. > :24:29.the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.
:24:30. > :24:33.So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct
:24:34. > :24:38.barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved
:24:39. > :24:45.in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade
:24:46. > :24:49.system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United
:24:50. > :24:55.Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European
:24:56. > :24:59.Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will
:25:00. > :25:04.try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly
:25:05. > :25:09.commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a
:25:10. > :25:12.free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the
:25:13. > :25:19.Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our
:25:20. > :25:22.present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate
:25:23. > :25:27.against any country. The European Union's free movement means you
:25:28. > :25:32.discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.
:25:33. > :25:35.It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building
:25:36. > :25:37.of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it
:25:38. > :25:39.more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.
:25:40. > :25:42.Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis
:25:43. > :25:44.of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?
:25:45. > :25:58.40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.
:25:59. > :26:04.Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.
:26:05. > :26:10.It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions
:26:11. > :26:12.about air pollution, that this is a public health
:26:13. > :26:16.emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,
:26:17. > :26:24.But how bad is air quality in Britain really?
:26:25. > :26:28.Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works
:26:29. > :26:31.at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.
:26:32. > :26:33.He has been looking into the recent claims
:26:34. > :26:38.It's a problem and it affects people's health.
:26:39. > :26:41.But when people start talking about the numbers
:26:42. > :26:43.of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.
:26:44. > :26:48.There have been tremendous improvements in air quality
:26:49. > :26:53.There is a lot less pollution than there used to be
:26:54. > :26:57.and none of that is coming through in the public
:26:58. > :27:01.So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels
:27:02. > :27:04.of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?
:27:05. > :27:06.It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution
:27:07. > :27:08.on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who
:27:09. > :27:14.It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening
:27:15. > :27:20.To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit
:27:21. > :27:25.I asked him about the data on which these claims
:27:26. > :27:30.They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities
:27:31. > :27:37.First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure
:27:38. > :27:42.29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000
:27:43. > :27:50.I will just talk about this group for a start.
:27:51. > :27:54.These are what are known as attributable deaths.
:27:55. > :27:58.Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.
:27:59. > :28:02.Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this
:28:03. > :28:06.was based on a study of US cities and they found out that
:28:07. > :28:10.by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had
:28:11. > :28:16.a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.
:28:17. > :28:21.They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying
:28:22. > :28:26.each year for each small increase in pollution.
:28:27. > :28:30.So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise
:28:31. > :28:33.it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises
:28:34. > :28:39.the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.
:28:40. > :28:42.So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000
:28:43. > :28:47.Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.
:28:48. > :28:52.And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths
:28:53. > :29:00.How much should we invest in cycling?
:29:01. > :29:02.Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?
:29:03. > :29:06.We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,
:29:07. > :29:10.but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?
:29:11. > :29:15.I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment
:29:16. > :29:17.and for air pollution that they don't really
:29:18. > :29:23.see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.
:29:24. > :29:25.Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing
:29:26. > :29:28.London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
:29:29. > :29:34.If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,
:29:35. > :29:36.that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.
:29:37. > :29:39.If you are poor and you are in social class five,
:29:40. > :29:41.compared to social class one, that would take seven
:29:42. > :29:46.If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.
:29:47. > :29:49.Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all
:29:50. > :29:51.of the cars in London and all of the road transport,
:29:52. > :29:55.we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air
:29:56. > :30:00.pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.
:30:01. > :30:02.There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,
:30:03. > :30:05.but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact
:30:06. > :30:09.on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making
:30:10. > :30:19.And we are joined now by the Executive Director
:30:20. > :30:38.You have called pollution and national crisis and a health
:30:39. > :30:42.emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are
:30:43. > :30:52.remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the
:30:53. > :30:57.studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the
:30:58. > :31:01.UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air
:31:02. > :31:06.pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if
:31:07. > :31:10.you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is
:31:11. > :31:14.impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of
:31:15. > :31:24.solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is
:31:25. > :31:30.down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which
:31:31. > :31:35.we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from
:31:36. > :31:40.the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is
:31:41. > :31:47.something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.
:31:48. > :31:54.If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of
:31:55. > :32:03.the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really
:32:04. > :32:09.worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe
:32:10. > :32:13.good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far
:32:14. > :32:22.from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is
:32:23. > :32:27.it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the
:32:28. > :32:31.last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health
:32:32. > :32:36.Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they
:32:37. > :32:39.need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if
:32:40. > :32:43.you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if
:32:44. > :32:49.you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities
:32:50. > :32:52.and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very
:32:53. > :32:56.high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors
:32:57. > :33:02.and many studies by London University showing this to be true.
:33:03. > :33:06.The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of
:33:07. > :33:12.pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is
:33:13. > :33:16.causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.
:33:17. > :33:20.The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and
:33:21. > :33:25.there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we
:33:26. > :33:29.have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution
:33:30. > :33:37.causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is
:33:38. > :33:46.40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.
:33:47. > :33:51.Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are
:33:52. > :33:56.talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air
:33:57. > :34:00.pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to
:34:01. > :34:04.phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner
:34:05. > :34:07.tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and
:34:08. > :34:11.clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had
:34:12. > :34:19.the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to
:34:20. > :34:25.me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most
:34:26. > :34:31.polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking
:34:32. > :34:36.at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure
:34:37. > :34:42.which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical
:34:43. > :34:51.effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is
:34:52. > :34:55.everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of
:34:56. > :34:59.people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,
:35:00. > :35:03.but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air
:35:04. > :35:09.pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more
:35:10. > :35:19.individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be
:35:20. > :35:22.premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be
:35:23. > :35:24.by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing
:35:25. > :35:33.difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke
:35:34. > :35:42.and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do
:35:43. > :35:49.you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined
:35:50. > :35:59.that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.
:36:00. > :36:04.But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000
:36:05. > :36:08.deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by
:36:09. > :36:13.that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do
:36:14. > :36:17.something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly
:36:18. > :36:22.caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem
:36:23. > :36:27.of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I
:36:28. > :36:34.am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another
:36:35. > :36:40.claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe
:36:41. > :36:45.clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have
:36:46. > :36:49.also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50
:36:50. > :36:57.cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you
:36:58. > :36:59.look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the
:37:00. > :37:03.actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent
:37:04. > :37:09.effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in
:37:10. > :37:15.terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am
:37:16. > :37:19.throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed
:37:20. > :37:23.that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and
:37:24. > :37:27.that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us
:37:28. > :37:31.that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does
:37:32. > :37:36.take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine
:37:37. > :37:40.months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten
:37:41. > :37:43.years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a
:37:44. > :37:49.piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken
:37:50. > :37:52.it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the
:37:53. > :37:57.professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the
:37:58. > :38:01.thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the
:38:02. > :38:07.impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young
:38:08. > :38:12.children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,
:38:13. > :38:16.this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the
:38:17. > :38:21.underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not
:38:22. > :38:26.arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate
:38:27. > :38:31.things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree
:38:32. > :38:36.with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I
:38:37. > :38:39.absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been
:38:40. > :38:45.made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think
:38:46. > :38:49.the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,
:38:50. > :38:55.diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can
:38:56. > :38:59.get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see
:39:00. > :39:01.us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.
:39:02. > :39:03.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:04. > :39:06.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:07. > :39:20.Welcome to the Sunday politics in the Midlands -
:39:21. > :39:24.More people voted to leave the EU here than
:39:25. > :39:28.Six months on from that defining moment which
:39:29. > :39:30.changed everything, we will ask the remainers
:39:31. > :39:33.and the leavers what do they think of the show so far?
:39:34. > :39:35.Joining us here today are two MPs from opposing
:39:36. > :39:48.Shabana Mahmood Labour MP for Birmingham Ladywood.
:39:49. > :39:50.She campaigned for a remain vote in June.
:39:51. > :39:54.Whereas Sir Bill Cash Conservative MP for storm has devoted some of his
:39:55. > :39:57.best years to life and some of the worst
:39:58. > :39:58.as well to achieving that
:39:59. > :40:07.Later on, the daunting catalogue of structural challenges
:40:08. > :40:09.facing our part of the country whoever is eventually
:40:10. > :40:13.We begin with Thursday's much anticipated announcement by the
:40:14. > :40:17.Communities Secretary and Broomsgrove MP Sajid Javad.
:40:18. > :40:21.His aim to plug the funding gap in social care, reduce bed blocking
:40:22. > :40:23.in our hard-pressed hospitals, and ease the strain
:40:24. > :40:37.The social care precept they can charge on top of council tax rises
:40:38. > :40:41.from 2% to up to 3% for the next two years, but the year after that it
:40:42. > :40:44.The leader of Britain's largest local authority isn't impressed.
:40:45. > :41:00.They are expecting poor people in Birmingham
:41:01. > :41:02.They are expecting poor people in Birmingham to put their hands
:41:03. > :41:05.in their pockets to pay for the care for elderly people,
:41:06. > :41:11.There is an elderly care crisis across this
:41:12. > :41:15.country and they are going to have to address that and I'm afraid this
:41:16. > :41:18.is just a sticking plaster where there should be major surgery.
:41:19. > :41:21.As a Birmingham MP yourself, isn't the weakness in his argument,
:41:22. > :41:24.that it cannot all be Theresa May's fault because if there
:41:25. > :41:27.it is the work of successive governments over many
:41:28. > :41:33.I think that social care as an issue has been reaching crisis level
:41:34. > :41:37.I think successive governments have failed to grasp the
:41:38. > :41:40.I think now it is getting to very serious levels.
:41:41. > :41:43.I think this is a sticking plaster solution.
:41:44. > :41:44.A national crisis needs a national response
:41:45. > :41:49.to step in with a proper funding settlement.
:41:50. > :41:51.Also open up a public debate about what our
:41:52. > :41:53.expectations of social care are
:41:54. > :41:55.and build a public arguement about those expectations
:41:56. > :42:05.Councillor Clancy is not the only councillor who feels that...
:42:06. > :42:08.Council leader in fact, that feels the money is not enough.
:42:09. > :42:10.The Tory leader of Warwickshire agrees that it is nowhere
:42:11. > :42:12.near the shortfall that needs to be met.
:42:13. > :42:15.I acknowledge that this has been going on for a long time.
:42:16. > :42:23.We are putting something in the order of ?7 billion
:42:24. > :42:28.The accusation that it is going to hit those who are worst off
:42:29. > :42:37.actually there is an adjustment in the formula to ensure those who have
:42:38. > :42:41.the lowest council tax base will be able to get preferential treatment.
:42:42. > :42:43.For practical purposes, although I entirely agree
:42:44. > :42:46.we have a very serious issue on our hands, it is over
:42:47. > :42:48.a long period of time and the
:42:49. > :42:54.better care fund is going to be adjusted by a formula.
:42:55. > :42:56.If we look at that pattern over the next three
:42:57. > :43:02.years, the precept dries up on that schedule set out
:43:03. > :43:05.the very year before a general election.
:43:06. > :43:16.That is why it is being described as a
:43:17. > :43:20.7 billion, or the better care fund, nobody can pretend that
:43:21. > :43:23.helpful, no one can pretend it is going
:43:24. > :43:25.to speak to the scale of the
:43:26. > :43:32.It will be part of any manifesto commitment continuing forward.
:43:33. > :43:36.We can only lookforward to a period of time
:43:37. > :43:41.After that, I am sure it will be continued.
:43:42. > :43:46.So to our main talking point this week.
:43:47. > :43:49.As so often during this year of shocks and upheavals, Brexit.
:43:50. > :43:57.That gleaming, blood-red Vote Leave battle bus
:43:58. > :44:08.Gordon Brown at Warwick University pleading to remain not
:44:09. > :44:11.in a United States of Europe but in a United Europe of States.
:44:12. > :44:14.Our reporter finds that Brexit is beginning to look a lot
:44:15. > :44:24.The fate of Britain's membership of the single
:44:25. > :44:30.One European market that's here to stay
:44:31. > :44:34.In June's referendum, the vote to leave
:44:35. > :44:36.the European Union was stronger here in the West Midlands
:44:37. > :44:38.than anywhere else in the UK.
:44:39. > :44:44.Trade and tourism are alive and well here but are the public
:44:45. > :44:48.I think it's boosted it, to be quite honest.
:44:49. > :44:53.I think it was a lot of fuss about nothing.
:44:54. > :44:56.We are still in the Euro at the moment until we come out.
:44:57. > :44:58.I don't know what all the fuss is about.
:44:59. > :45:01.We don't know what is going to happen in the future, so let's
:45:02. > :45:05.It is going to affect young people looking for work.
:45:06. > :45:07.I am looking for work now and it's so hard.
:45:08. > :45:09.Headquartered in Stratford-upon-Avon,
:45:10. > :45:11.the Rigby Group is an international, conglomerate with
:45:12. > :45:12.interests in technology, airports and hotels.
:45:13. > :45:16.It has an annual turnover of over ?2 million per year and employs
:45:17. > :45:20.One of Britain's richest men, Sir Peter Rigby, was a darling
:45:21. > :45:25.Does he think Project Fear has come to past?
:45:26. > :45:35.The views and warning that people wanted to remain have come to pass.
:45:36. > :45:39.The fall in the value of the pound, the inflation that is being
:45:40. > :45:45.Importantly, this lack of understanding of what the
:45:46. > :45:55.alternative is to being party of Europe.
:45:56. > :46:04.Has it been an economic Armageddon as some predicted?
:46:05. > :46:07.It hasn't been Armageddon but it hasn't carried on as usual either.
:46:08. > :46:08.Business has been affected by Brexit.
:46:09. > :46:12.This notion that things are just carrying on is a false notion.
:46:13. > :46:14.For him, is leaving the single market
:46:15. > :46:22.To say it would not be because it is at
:46:23. > :46:25.the end of the day our biggest single export opportunity.
:46:26. > :46:27.In business, one man's loss is another man's game.
:46:28. > :46:30.A gold rush is under way at Daniel The Jewellers in Nuneaton.
:46:31. > :46:33.Thanks to a fall in the pound, the price of gold measured
:46:34. > :46:39.Its owner never doubted that Brexit would be anything but a success.
:46:40. > :46:41.With plans to expand, they are hiring.
:46:42. > :46:44.Certainly with the more expensive items, gold
:46:45. > :46:53.Expensive watches, certainly the Rolexes.
:46:54. > :47:00.With the question of how the UK starts the process of leaving the EU
:47:01. > :47:03.stuck in the Superme Court until the new year, it
:47:04. > :47:06.appears that for now anyway the debate about what type of Brexit
:47:07. > :47:14.The swings and roundabouts of the Brexit debate.
:47:15. > :47:18.We are also joined by one of our region's three Ukip
:47:19. > :47:21.Recently promoted to defence spokesman by the party's new leader.
:47:22. > :47:24.Bill is also a councillor in Dudley.
:47:25. > :47:28.What would you say to Peter Rigby who
:47:29. > :47:33.points out the pound is down, inflation up.
:47:34. > :47:36.It is not Armageddon but not business as usual, as far as
:47:37. > :47:48.The outrageous antics of some of these moaners,
:47:49. > :47:52.All this continuation of Project Fear, we have not
:47:53. > :47:53.had the chance to enjoy the
:47:54. > :47:55.benefits of being a free country yet.
:47:56. > :47:57.His real concern is we could be putting ourselves at odds
:47:58. > :48:07.I am afraid this gentleman is talking from a point of
:48:08. > :48:08.view where he is detached from reality.
:48:09. > :48:10.One of the most broadly based businesses.
:48:11. > :48:12.You saw there the very sectors he is involved in.
:48:13. > :48:19.I am sure large corporations like being in the EU.
:48:20. > :48:24.People who have to compete for jobs, council housing and education don't.
:48:25. > :48:26.That gentleman sees people coming here from the EU as staff.
:48:27. > :48:29.The people who voted for Brexit see them as competition.
:48:30. > :48:31.I am afraid he is detached from reality and trying to
:48:32. > :48:40.In terms of the single market, it is not going to happen.
:48:41. > :48:45.On the subject of detached from reality, let me put to you
:48:46. > :48:48.what one senior businessperson said to me.
:48:49. > :48:51.In a sense, how can you know what you don't have if you don't
:48:52. > :48:54.have it but we might have had it in different circumstances had
:48:55. > :49:00.It depends if you believe in Britain or not.
:49:01. > :49:02.We know what would have happened on that night
:49:03. > :49:05.of the referendum if we had made the historic mistake of staying in.
:49:06. > :49:07.Until the Sunderland vote came through,
:49:08. > :49:12.We would have been sucked into an ever increasing spiral of being
:49:13. > :49:19.Now we have the right to be a free country and make our own decisions.
:49:20. > :49:22.Let me put to you, Bill Cash, reading between the lines of that
:49:23. > :49:24.interview with Peter Rigby, he feels a sense of
:49:25. > :49:27.That rush from gold is a sign of uncertain times.
:49:28. > :49:29.That is the sincerest verdict of all, isn't it?
:49:30. > :49:37.The single market was not working for the UK.
:49:38. > :49:39.We run a 62 billion a year deficit in our trading
:49:40. > :49:45.Exports are up, investment is up, employment is
:49:46. > :49:47.down, consumer retail index up, the FTSE up.
:49:48. > :49:57.We have got a tremendous opportunity globally.
:49:58. > :50:00.Where we currently run over 30 billion a year surplus and it
:50:01. > :50:02.went up by over 10 billion last year.
:50:03. > :50:05.Although the pound is slightly down, the reality is that helps exports.
:50:06. > :50:14.Patrick, the bottom line is that they tried Project Fear
:50:15. > :50:24.When I hear him say that it is ridiculous
:50:25. > :50:26.to say we will be staying in the
:50:27. > :50:29.single market, the reality is that the basic problem is that it never
:50:30. > :50:36.Shabana Mahmood, you have listened patiently to two Brexit Bills.
:50:37. > :50:40.I think they are both making the mistake of presenting a rosy
:50:41. > :50:44.picture and others have presenting a dark picture.
:50:45. > :50:47.The truth is we have not left yet and we do not
:50:48. > :50:48.know what is going to be facing us.
:50:49. > :50:51.I do take issue that losing access to the single market
:50:52. > :51:01.There will be opportunities elsewhere but if I am
:51:02. > :51:06.deal but I also want to see how desperate the British are and what
:51:07. > :51:08.they will give up because of the poor
:51:09. > :51:09.deal they have got from the
:51:10. > :51:12.Thre will be give and take on both sides.
:51:13. > :51:15.We will lose out and I don't think we can deny that we
:51:16. > :51:20.Looking at the party politics, isn't labour between a rock and a hard
:51:21. > :51:24.On opposite sides of the fence from many of your
:51:25. > :51:35.On the other hand, so luke warm was Jeremy Corbyn as a
:51:36. > :51:42.Remain campaign that you have upset the other side as well.
:51:43. > :51:44.I was probably more passionate about Remain in
:51:45. > :51:48.There is a lively debate within the party,
:51:49. > :51:51.in terms of our position in immigration and moving forward.
:51:52. > :51:57.We have to work was a fair migration policy
:51:58. > :52:08.Also what we think good access to the single market looks
:52:09. > :52:12.I think we should try and get the best possible access but if free
:52:13. > :52:16.movement is off the table, I don't think Europe is to offer as
:52:17. > :52:19.Access to the single market of course because we will continue
:52:20. > :52:23.problem is the problem is we could not stay in the single
:52:24. > :52:33.Wants you have left the European Union comedy cannot stay in the
:52:34. > :52:37.single market. The terms that we will have that access is where the
:52:38. > :52:41.real battle will be played out and that is what the Prime Minister is
:52:42. > :52:47.going to be battling. She is going to have a lot of issues in the Tory
:52:48. > :52:51.party. On this programme last Sunday Ken Clarke warned the Prime Minister
:52:52. > :52:56.if she goes for a hard Brexit that you are looking for, she risks being
:52:57. > :53:04.brought down within the party and the court spot is still in place.
:53:05. > :53:07.Not at all, the bottom line is we are supporting the Prime Minister in
:53:08. > :53:15.her approach to this. The bottom line is also that she, having been a
:53:16. > :53:21.remainder, is committed to us coming out. This is good news and the
:53:22. > :53:28.Conservative Party is actually behind her in this. The European
:53:29. > :53:32.Parliament, nearing the end of the road one would imagine. How does the
:53:33. > :53:36.rest of the European Parliament viewed you? Do is see you as the
:53:37. > :53:41.guys in the departure lounge? I think some of them are angry with us
:53:42. > :53:45.and hard and they cannot understand why we don't want to be part of this
:53:46. > :53:49.grand project. Others take inspiration. There are people in
:53:50. > :53:53.that parliament who think they can have their own version of freedom in
:53:54. > :53:58.their own countries. Bring it on. Thank you for joining us here today.
:53:59. > :54:04.That referendum result is once again laid mainly at the door of up our
:54:05. > :54:08.region's underperformance. A report published in the last couple of
:54:09. > :54:14.days, paints a picture of low growth, low wages and the employment
:54:15. > :54:17.levels. While attending the launch event, the mayor candidates had
:54:18. > :54:24.little doubt about the scale of the challenge facing the winner. Midland
:54:25. > :54:29.engine trouble was the foreboding title of the resolution foundation
:54:30. > :54:33.report. Three of the candidates for the mayor were on hand to hear the
:54:34. > :54:38.home truths it contained. A broken heart at the centre of the UK
:54:39. > :54:41.economy, according to the think tank led by the former Conservative
:54:42. > :54:49.minister David Willetts. These are problems that East Midlands have had
:54:50. > :54:53.a long-term issue with. I think it has gotten worse since the financial
:54:54. > :54:58.crisis. What we have seen in a lot of the parts of the UK is that there
:54:59. > :55:02.has been a strong bounce back of employment. In the West Midlands, it
:55:03. > :55:08.has not got back to where it was at the start of the crisis. The report
:55:09. > :55:16.came amongst better news, unemployment falling. There are now
:55:17. > :55:20.151 thousand out of work in the region. It is higher than the
:55:21. > :55:24.national average. The jobless total may be falling but the worrying
:55:25. > :55:31.statistic of this report is that employment here is lower than in any
:55:32. > :55:32.other city region in the UK. 64.5%. Something that has been noted by
:55:33. > :55:38.ministers. The West Midlands has had ministers. The West Midlands has had
:55:39. > :55:42.a lower average rates of employment than the national average for a
:55:43. > :55:45.period of time. That is why it is so important to put a additional effort
:55:46. > :55:50.in and I am encouraged to see the figures we have today in terms of
:55:51. > :55:54.employment and unemployment in the West Midlands. Plenty to do for
:55:55. > :56:00.whoever becomes the Metro Mayor. If you want to get that midland's
:56:01. > :56:07.engine firing on all cylinders. Ukip have selected their candidate for
:56:08. > :56:10.Metro Mayor. He was also the candidate for West Midlands Police
:56:11. > :56:15.and crime commission earlier theres earlier this year. You have to look
:56:16. > :56:19.at this question now from the resolution foundation and say that
:56:20. > :56:22.if we are talking about economic underachievement, that has to be as
:56:23. > :56:25.much a verdict on the Tory Government referendum as it was
:56:26. > :56:30.anything to do with the European union. I do not agree with the
:56:31. > :56:35.resolution foundation's conclusions, or for what you have just said. This
:56:36. > :56:42.is another accumulative problem over a long period of time. The fact is,
:56:43. > :56:47.unemployment in the West Midlands has been going down substantially
:56:48. > :56:50.and actually we have also got enormous opportunities coming out of
:56:51. > :56:55.Brexit, Jaguar and Land Rover and other companies are going to benefit
:56:56. > :57:02.from this. The unemployment figures nationally have been dropping very,
:57:03. > :57:06.very much. Something in the West Midlands alone, something since
:57:07. > :57:11.2010, when the Labour Government was in power, down by 240,000 alone. I
:57:12. > :57:16.wonder whether the story is we have some successes at the top of the
:57:17. > :57:21.economy but along tale of underachievement. Thinking about
:57:22. > :57:25.unemployment among black, minority and ethnic and young white men. Is
:57:26. > :57:30.that the issue in areas? That is part of the issue and it has the
:57:31. > :57:32.highest rate of an appointment in the country. That is one of the
:57:33. > :57:36.reasons we have that problem. I have reasons we have that problem. I have
:57:37. > :57:40.to say to build, you cannot keep hiding behind the fact that
:57:41. > :57:43.something has been a problem for a long time. Part of the reason of
:57:44. > :57:48.explaining why it is the problem today. It is perfectly true to say
:57:49. > :57:52.to tackle long-term systemic to tackle long-term systemic
:57:53. > :57:57.unemployment in areas like Birmingham and the wider West
:57:58. > :58:00.Midlands. We need to have an adequate solution today. We do have
:58:01. > :58:06.the right sort of skills they need. the right sort of skills they need.
:58:07. > :58:10.There is a skills gap in the city. That should not be beyond the wit of
:58:11. > :58:14.Government to be able to have a solution to. When unemployment is
:58:15. > :58:20.going down so substantially, that is good news and as I said, since 2010,
:58:21. > :58:29.it has gone down by the dot Lord Willetts, the head of the resolution
:58:30. > :58:33.foundation. Investment just misses the West Midlands and goes to other
:58:34. > :58:36.areas where skills are better employability... You had better ask
:58:37. > :58:39.him because I do not agree with the analysis that they have come forward
:58:40. > :58:44.with. I think Bill is missing the point. I do not think I am. We have
:58:45. > :58:49.some successes at the end but what is happening in the rest of the
:58:50. > :58:58.not... Can I say, in my constituency not... Can I say, in my constituency
:58:59. > :59:08.we are slightly down. 4000 over the past year. 64% employment, very low
:59:09. > :59:17.over a city region. In my consistency, we have virtually no
:59:18. > :59:22.unemployment. That applies to other parts of the West Midlands as well.
:59:23. > :59:27.Thank you very much indeed. Time now for our round-up of the political
:59:28. > :59:33.seconds as bright as today by the seconds as bright as today by the
:59:34. > :59:37.breakfast presenter. -- is brought to us today. The NFU wants farmers
:59:38. > :59:52.to be paid compensation for greener to clean up costs. Linking --
:59:53. > :59:58.Lincoln Tory MP says plans to... Proud Brummie Jess Phillips has
:59:59. > :00:05.revealed she had the parliamentary record and two occasions. The field
:00:06. > :00:10.to spell the name ma'am the proper Birmingham way. When I say mum and
:00:11. > :00:17.when I talk about my mum or being a mum, the all was right that M U M. I
:00:18. > :00:22.am from Birmingham and the spell it M O M. Strike action spread into the
:00:23. > :00:33.Midlands. The train company trying to introduce driver blistering
:00:34. > :00:40.companies year. He is to start a leadership challenge against Len
:00:41. > :00:45.McCluskey. An echo of those epic battles 30 so years ago when matter
:00:46. > :00:51.moderate Labour MPs purge the hard left of the party. Is this beginning
:00:52. > :00:56.of a counteroffensive in your party? I do not know whether I would
:00:57. > :01:00.describe it like that. We were due a election within Unite. That was
:01:01. > :01:05.always going to happen. I am pleased Gerard is going to run for that
:01:06. > :01:09.election. He is the West Midlands's regional secretary. Very in touch
:01:10. > :01:19.with working people. A new kind of politics with looking at Labour, we
:01:20. > :01:24.have momentum populism. His populism politics changing? I think the trade
:01:25. > :01:30.unions are getting more militant. Some people are trying to put Mr
:01:31. > :01:35.McCluskey back in his place. That is more to do with the internal
:01:36. > :01:41.politics of the Labour Party. I note you would love to come back in on
:01:42. > :01:45.that but it is the season of good will. Thank you to you both. Bill is
:01:46. > :01:52.not the only Tory MP famous for sticking to his guns. Gloucester's
:01:53. > :01:56.Richard Graham raised the intercity rail services at Prime Minister
:01:57. > :02:01.questions. On Tuesday he will be at it again, opening a debate on
:02:02. > :02:06.exactly the same issue. He is nothing if not determined. It is the
:02:07. > :02:06.last word from Parliament almost before the Christmas recess. From
:02:07. > :02:17.all of Will Article 50 be triggered
:02:18. > :02:20.by the end of March, will President Trump start work
:02:21. > :02:24.on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen
:02:25. > :02:49.provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and
:02:50. > :02:51.Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of
:02:52. > :02:55.you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum
:02:56. > :02:58.and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end
:02:59. > :03:00.of the year? I don't think he will lose
:03:01. > :03:13.the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the
:03:14. > :03:18.referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that
:03:19. > :03:24.coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!
:03:25. > :03:29.It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,
:03:30. > :03:34.Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a
:03:35. > :03:37.host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring
:03:38. > :03:43.and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And
:03:44. > :03:46.until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs
:03:47. > :03:52.Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the
:03:53. > :03:56.likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the
:03:57. > :04:02.Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to
:04:03. > :04:07.properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain
:04:08. > :04:12.is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German
:04:13. > :04:16.election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power
:04:17. > :04:19.in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation
:04:20. > :04:27.and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has
:04:28. > :04:31.been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the
:04:32. > :04:34.government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and
:04:35. > :04:39.even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of
:04:40. > :04:46.the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war
:04:47. > :04:51.could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull
:04:52. > :04:57.year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.
:04:58. > :05:03.The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will
:05:04. > :05:09.say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there
:05:10. > :05:13.will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018
:05:14. > :05:19.which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office
:05:20. > :05:23.which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know
:05:24. > :05:27.there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their
:05:28. > :05:32.elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be
:05:33. > :05:36.more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the
:05:37. > :05:41.Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get
:05:42. > :05:44.them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the
:05:45. > :05:48.things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for
:05:49. > :05:54.Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the
:05:55. > :05:58.economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those
:05:59. > :06:04.already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no
:06:05. > :06:08.guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things
:06:09. > :06:13.Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How
:06:14. > :06:19.much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are
:06:20. > :06:24.willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out
:06:25. > :06:27.into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship
:06:28. > :06:37.with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is
:06:38. > :06:41.also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European
:06:42. > :06:47.security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the
:06:48. > :06:49.rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade
:06:50. > :06:54.everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is
:06:55. > :06:59.bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a
:07:00. > :07:03.punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on
:07:04. > :07:07.the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump
:07:08. > :07:13.changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very
:07:14. > :07:21.different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit
:07:22. > :07:24.was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even
:07:25. > :07:27.one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this
:07:28. > :07:31.panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican
:07:32. > :07:44.nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would
:07:45. > :07:48.not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican
:07:49. > :07:53.nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward
:07:54. > :07:58.a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are
:07:59. > :08:03.pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!
:08:04. > :08:08.We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as
:08:09. > :08:15.president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been
:08:16. > :08:21.noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants
:08:22. > :08:27.massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next
:08:28. > :08:33.year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed
:08:34. > :08:37.the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up
:08:38. > :08:42.interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the
:08:43. > :08:47.Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not
:08:48. > :08:52.Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the
:08:53. > :08:56.rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure
:08:57. > :09:01.projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets
:09:02. > :09:06.those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending
:09:07. > :09:10.he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal
:09:11. > :09:16.government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker
:09:17. > :09:21.Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the
:09:22. > :09:25.American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise
:09:26. > :09:32.in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe
:09:33. > :09:36.will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign
:09:37. > :09:41.debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign
:09:42. > :09:46.debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that
:09:47. > :09:53.happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To
:09:54. > :09:56.begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull
:09:57. > :10:02.off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via
:10:03. > :10:07.corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is
:10:08. > :10:11.too expensive for American business to take back into the US and
:10:12. > :10:15.reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end
:10:16. > :10:22.up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on
:10:23. > :10:26.steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for
:10:27. > :10:32.Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports
:10:33. > :10:36.as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign
:10:37. > :10:40.direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice
:10:41. > :10:44.versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and
:10:45. > :10:50.likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the
:10:51. > :10:53.British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about
:10:54. > :10:59.the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President
:11:00. > :11:03.Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net
:11:04. > :11:07.exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they
:11:08. > :11:13.do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US
:11:14. > :11:18.for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft
:11:19. > :11:27.carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,
:11:28. > :11:32.people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust
:11:33. > :11:36.belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are
:11:37. > :11:40.much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar
:11:41. > :11:47.is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of
:11:48. > :11:50.Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now
:11:51. > :11:57.dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections
:11:58. > :12:06.in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which
:12:07. > :12:11.outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would
:12:12. > :12:21.be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in
:12:22. > :12:25.France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois
:12:26. > :12:35.Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right
:12:36. > :12:42.candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.
:12:43. > :12:50.Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois
:12:51. > :12:54.Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last
:12:55. > :13:04.year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation
:13:05. > :13:08.and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the
:13:09. > :13:15.context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as
:13:16. > :13:20.busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up
:13:21. > :13:22.in my hours! That's all for today,
:13:23. > :13:24.thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back
:13:25. > :13:27.on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here
:13:28. > :13:29.on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:30. > :13:33.it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer
:13:34. > :14:13.can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography
:14:14. > :14:30.in a radical new direction. The dance was woven
:14:31. > :14:35.into the storyline,