05/02/2017

:00:33. > :00:37.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38. > :00:41.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

:00:42. > :00:43.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

:00:44. > :00:46.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

:00:47. > :00:56.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

:00:57. > :01:01.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

:01:02. > :01:04.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

:01:05. > :01:07.is making good on his campaign promises.

:01:08. > :01:09.As the Government gets into gear for two years

:01:10. > :01:12.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

:01:13. > :01:15.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

:01:16. > :01:19.and the costs and savings once we've left.

:01:20. > :01:41.And with me, as always, a trio of top political

:01:42. > :01:42.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

:01:43. > :01:47.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

:01:48. > :01:53.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

:01:54. > :01:56.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

:01:57. > :02:01.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

:02:02. > :02:04.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

:02:05. > :02:10.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

:02:11. > :02:12.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

:02:13. > :02:17.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

:02:18. > :02:20.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

:02:21. > :02:22.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

:02:23. > :02:24.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

:02:25. > :02:28.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

:02:29. > :02:33.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

:02:34. > :02:37.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

:02:38. > :02:42.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

:02:43. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

:02:45. > :02:48.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

:02:49. > :02:56.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

:02:57. > :03:01.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

:03:02. > :03:07.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

:03:08. > :03:15.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

:03:16. > :03:19.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

:03:20. > :03:22.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

:03:23. > :03:27.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

:03:28. > :03:31.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

:03:32. > :03:35.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

:03:36. > :03:41.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

:03:42. > :03:45.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

:03:46. > :03:51.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

:03:52. > :03:56.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

:03:57. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

:04:00. > :04:04.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

:04:05. > :04:09.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

:04:10. > :04:15.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

:04:16. > :04:20.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

:04:21. > :04:25.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

:04:26. > :04:29.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

:04:30. > :04:36.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

:04:37. > :04:40.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

:04:41. > :04:44.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

:04:45. > :04:47.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

:04:48. > :04:50.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

:04:51. > :04:54.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

:04:55. > :04:59.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

:05:00. > :05:05.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

:05:06. > :05:09.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

:05:10. > :05:13.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

:05:14. > :05:18.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

:05:19. > :05:23.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

:05:24. > :05:26.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

:05:27. > :05:31.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

:05:32. > :05:35.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

:05:36. > :05:43.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

:05:44. > :05:46.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

:05:47. > :05:48.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

:05:49. > :05:53.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

:05:54. > :05:58.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

:05:59. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

:06:09. > :06:13.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

:06:14. > :06:17.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

:06:18. > :06:20.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

:06:21. > :06:25.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

:06:26. > :06:30.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

:06:31. > :06:33.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

:06:34. > :06:36.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

:06:37. > :06:39.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

:06:40. > :06:42.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

:06:43. > :06:43.are published in the Government's new white paper.

:06:44. > :06:46.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

:06:47. > :06:49.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

:06:50. > :06:53.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

:06:54. > :06:55.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

:06:56. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

:07:04. > :07:07.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

:07:08. > :07:09.So, is that what's going to happen now?

:07:10. > :07:12.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

:07:13. > :07:14.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

:07:15. > :07:19.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

:07:20. > :07:25.According to the most recent Treasury figures,

:07:26. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

:07:28. > :07:30.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

:07:31. > :07:36.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

:07:37. > :07:38.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

:07:39. > :07:40.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

:07:41. > :07:44.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

:07:45. > :07:47.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

:07:48. > :07:53.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

:07:54. > :07:57.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

:07:58. > :07:59.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

:08:00. > :08:05.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

:08:06. > :08:10.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

:08:11. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue

:08:13. > :08:18.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

:08:19. > :08:21.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

:08:22. > :08:26.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

:08:27. > :08:29.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

:08:30. > :08:37.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

:08:38. > :08:38.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

:08:39. > :08:46.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

:08:47. > :08:51.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

:08:52. > :08:53.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

:08:54. > :08:56.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

:08:57. > :09:00.They include things like this building, the European Commission

:09:01. > :09:08.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

:09:09. > :09:11.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

:09:12. > :09:14.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

:09:15. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

:09:17. > :09:21.because actually they can hold us to ransom.

:09:22. > :09:24.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

:09:25. > :09:27.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

:09:28. > :09:30.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

:09:31. > :09:32.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

:09:33. > :09:38.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

:09:39. > :09:43.contributions to the European Union every year will end.

:09:44. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

:09:48. > :09:53.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

:09:54. > :09:55.The Europol for example, that's the European crime

:09:56. > :10:00.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

:10:01. > :10:03.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

:10:04. > :10:06.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

:10:07. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

:10:15. > :10:24.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

:10:25. > :10:25.trade, universities and, say, climate change,

:10:26. > :10:29.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

:10:30. > :10:31.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

:10:32. > :10:33.I wonder if they're going to let me in!

:10:34. > :10:36.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

:10:37. > :10:39.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

:10:40. > :10:44.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

:10:45. > :10:46.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

:10:47. > :10:51.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

:10:52. > :10:54.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

:10:55. > :10:56.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

:10:57. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

:11:02. > :11:08.contribution for some preferential access to its market?

:11:09. > :11:10.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

:11:11. > :11:12.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

:11:13. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

:11:21. > :11:24.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

:11:25. > :11:26.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

:11:27. > :11:29.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

:11:30. > :11:31.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

:11:32. > :11:33.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

:11:34. > :11:40.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

:11:41. > :11:42.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

:11:43. > :11:52.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

:11:53. > :12:09.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

:12:10. > :12:12.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

:12:13. > :12:14.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

:12:15. > :12:17.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

:12:18. > :12:25.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

:12:26. > :12:29.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

:12:30. > :12:31.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

:12:32. > :12:38.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

:12:39. > :12:41.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

:12:42. > :12:46.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

:12:47. > :12:50.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

:12:51. > :12:52.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

:12:53. > :12:57.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

:12:58. > :13:01.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

:13:02. > :13:06.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

:13:07. > :13:11.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

:13:12. > :13:15.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

:13:16. > :13:20.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

:13:21. > :13:22.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

:13:23. > :13:27.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

:13:28. > :13:30.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

:13:31. > :13:33.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

:13:34. > :13:39.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

:13:40. > :13:43.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

:13:44. > :13:48.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

:13:49. > :13:55.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

:13:56. > :13:59.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

:14:00. > :14:01.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

:14:02. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

:14:05. > :14:11.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

:14:12. > :14:16.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

:14:17. > :14:20.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

:14:21. > :14:25.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

:14:26. > :14:30.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

:14:31. > :14:33.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

:14:34. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

:14:39. > :14:45.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

:14:46. > :14:50.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

:14:51. > :14:53.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

:14:54. > :14:57.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

:14:58. > :15:00.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

:15:01. > :15:05.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

:15:06. > :15:09.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

:15:10. > :15:14.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

:15:15. > :15:18.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

:15:19. > :15:21.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

:15:22. > :15:26.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

:15:27. > :15:29.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

:15:30. > :15:35.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

:15:36. > :15:41.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

:15:42. > :15:47.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

:15:48. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

:15:51. > :15:53.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

:15:54. > :15:59.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

:16:00. > :16:03.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

:16:04. > :16:08.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

:16:09. > :16:13.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

:16:14. > :16:17.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

:16:18. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

:16:22. > :16:26.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

:16:27. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

:16:34. > :16:36.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

:16:37. > :16:42.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

:16:43. > :16:48.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

:16:49. > :16:53.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

:16:54. > :16:56.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

:16:57. > :17:02.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

:17:03. > :17:06.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

:17:07. > :17:11.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

:17:12. > :17:16.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

:17:17. > :17:24.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

:17:25. > :17:30.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

:17:31. > :17:34.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

:17:35. > :17:39.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

:17:40. > :17:43.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

:17:44. > :17:50.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

:17:51. > :17:54.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

:17:55. > :17:59.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

:18:00. > :18:04.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

:18:05. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

:18:11. > :18:16.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

:18:17. > :18:21.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

:18:22. > :18:25.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

:18:26. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

:18:30. > :18:33.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

:18:34. > :18:37.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

:18:38. > :18:40.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

:18:41. > :18:43.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

:18:44. > :18:48.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

:18:49. > :18:52.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

:18:53. > :18:57.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

:18:58. > :19:04.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

:19:05. > :19:09.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

:19:10. > :19:14.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

:19:15. > :19:18.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

:19:19. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

:19:24. > :19:28.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

:19:29. > :19:31.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

:19:32. > :19:36.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

:19:37. > :19:40.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

:19:41. > :19:43.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

:19:44. > :19:47.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

:19:48. > :19:51.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

:19:52. > :19:57.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

:19:58. > :20:01.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

:20:02. > :20:03.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

:20:04. > :20:21.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:22. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

:20:24. > :20:26.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

:20:27. > :20:29.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:30. > :20:32.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

:20:33. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

:20:36. > :20:39.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

:20:40. > :20:45.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

:20:46. > :20:49.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

:20:50. > :20:54.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

:20:55. > :20:57.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

:20:58. > :21:03.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

:21:04. > :21:04.will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:05. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

:21:07. > :21:09.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

:21:10. > :21:11.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

:21:12. > :21:14.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

:21:15. > :21:19.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

:21:20. > :21:21.criticising what he says was a terrible decision

:21:22. > :21:24.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

:21:25. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:32. > :21:43.the ban until it hears the case in full.

:21:44. > :21:47.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

:21:48. > :21:51.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:52. > :21:53.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:54. > :22:06.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

:22:07. > :22:11.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

:22:12. > :22:18.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

:22:19. > :22:27.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:28. > :22:31.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

:22:32. > :22:35.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

:22:36. > :22:41.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

:22:42. > :22:48.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

:22:49. > :22:57.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:58. > :23:02.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

:23:03. > :23:07.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

:23:08. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:11. > :23:16.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:17. > :23:25.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:26. > :23:28.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:29. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:33. > :23:37.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:38. > :23:43.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:44. > :23:49.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:50. > :23:52.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:53. > :23:57.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:58. > :24:02.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:24:03. > :24:09.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:10. > :24:15.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:16. > :24:19.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:20. > :24:27.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:28. > :24:33.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:34. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:39. > :24:43.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:44. > :24:47.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:48. > :24:52.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:53. > :24:55.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:56. > :25:00.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:25:01. > :25:03.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:04. > :25:08.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:09. > :25:20.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:21. > :25:26.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:27. > :25:30.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:31. > :25:36.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:37. > :25:42.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:43. > :25:49.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:50. > :26:00.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:26:01. > :26:04.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:05. > :26:07.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:08. > :26:15.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:16. > :26:20.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:21. > :26:26.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:27. > :26:30.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:31. > :26:34.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:35. > :26:39.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:40. > :26:44.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:45. > :26:47.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:48. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:52. > :26:56.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:57. > :27:00.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:27:01. > :27:05.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:06. > :27:09.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:10. > :27:15.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:16. > :27:22.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:23. > :27:26.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:27. > :27:31.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:32. > :27:37.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:38. > :27:40.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:41. > :27:45.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:46. > :27:51.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:52. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:56. > :27:59.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:28:00. > :28:04.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:28:05. > :28:06.interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:07. > :28:10.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:11. > :28:14.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:15. > :28:22.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:23. > :28:25.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:26. > :28:31.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:32. > :28:35.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:36. > :28:41.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:42. > :28:45.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:46. > :28:52.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:53. > :28:56.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:57. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:29:03. > :29:07.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:08. > :29:11.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:12. > :29:17.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:18. > :29:24.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:25. > :29:31.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:32. > :29:33.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:34. > :29:35.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:36. > :29:38.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:39. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:42. > :29:44.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:45. > :29:47.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:48. > :29:49.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:50. > :29:52.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:53. > :29:58.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:59. > :30:00.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:30:01. > :30:05.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:06. > :30:07.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:08. > :30:11.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:12. > :30:13.relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:14. > :30:15.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:16. > :30:17.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:18. > :30:24.planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:25. > :30:27.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:28. > :30:29.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:30. > :30:31.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:32. > :30:40.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:41. > :30:43.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:44. > :30:45.for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:46. > :30:52.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:53. > :31:02.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:31:03. > :31:05.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:06. > :31:10.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:11. > :31:13.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:14. > :31:18.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:19. > :31:21.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:22. > :31:27.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:28. > :31:29.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:30. > :31:33.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:34. > :31:38.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:39. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:43. > :31:47.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:48. > :31:51.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:52. > :31:56.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:57. > :32:00.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:32:01. > :32:03.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:04. > :32:08.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:09. > :32:12.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:13. > :32:18.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:19. > :32:22.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:23. > :32:26.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:27. > :32:29.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:30. > :32:34.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:35. > :32:41.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:42. > :32:45.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:46. > :32:49.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:50. > :32:52.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:53. > :32:55.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:56. > :33:00.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:33:01. > :33:03.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:04. > :33:07.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:08. > :33:18.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:19. > :33:20.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:21. > :33:23.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:24. > :33:26.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:27. > :33:29.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:30. > :33:36.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:37. > :33:42.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:43. > :33:46.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:47. > :33:50.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:51. > :33:54.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:55. > :33:57.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:58. > :34:01.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:34:02. > :34:05.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:06. > :34:09.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:10. > :34:17.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:18. > :34:20.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:21. > :34:25.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:26. > :34:28.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:29. > :34:31.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:32. > :34:35.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:36. > :34:41.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:42. > :34:47.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:48. > :34:50.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:51. > :34:56.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:57. > :35:00.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:35:01. > :35:06.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:07. > :35:10.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:11. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:16. > :35:20.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:21. > :35:24.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:25. > :35:29.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:30. > :35:33.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:34. > :35:37.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:38. > :35:42.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:43. > :35:46.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:47. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:52. > :35:56.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:57. > :36:03.return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:36:04. > :36:06.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:07. > :36:14.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:15. > :36:17.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:18. > :36:25.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:26. > :36:31.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:32. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:35. > :36:40.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:41. > :36:44.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:45. > :36:46.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:47. > :36:53.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:54. > :36:57.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:58. > :37:02.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:37:03. > :37:07.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:08. > :37:11.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:12. > :37:16.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:17. > :37:20.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:21. > :37:25.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:26. > :37:31.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:32. > :37:36.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:37. > :37:40.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:41. > :37:44.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:45. > :37:50.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:51. > :37:54.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:55. > :37:58.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:59. > :38:00.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:38:01. > :38:07.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:08. > :38:13.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:14. > :38:17.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:18. > :38:20.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:21. > :38:23.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:24. > :38:25.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:26. > :38:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:28. > :38:36.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:37. > :38:46.We have a new twist today, in the debate about executive pay.

:38:47. > :38:49.What will the Metro Mayor of the West Midlands really be worth?

:38:50. > :38:52.It's a big job with, potentially, a big salary to match.

:38:53. > :38:55.But he or she will be a public servant, so perhaps they should get

:38:56. > :38:58.by with a significantly less generous deal.

:38:59. > :39:00.Well, that's our talking point here today.

:39:01. > :39:04.Anthea McIntyre is one of our Conservative MEPs.

:39:05. > :39:08.And Khalid Mahmood is the Labour MP for Birmingham Perry Barr.

:39:09. > :39:16.And we'll also be talking, a little later, about the repercussions here,

:39:17. > :39:20.of Donald Trump's first two weeks in power.

:39:21. > :39:23.Let's begin, though, with those Labour divisions over Brexit.

:39:24. > :39:27.The Newcastle-under-Lyme MP, Paul Farrelly, defied

:39:28. > :39:29.Jeremy Corbyn's three-line whip, to become the only MP from our part

:39:30. > :39:32.of the country, to vote against the Government's Article 50

:39:33. > :39:35.bill, even though he has a majority of just 650, in a constituency

:39:36. > :39:44.Well, in the Commons on Tuesday, Mr Farrelly explained his opposition

:39:45. > :39:50.I'm not disrespecting, in opposing this bill,

:39:51. > :39:58.I just think on this occasion that they are on.

:39:59. > :40:04.-- I just think on this occasion that they are wrong.

:40:05. > :40:08.I'm not failing to trust the people, I just is agree with some of them,

:40:09. > :40:10.and I agree with the 48% who chose to remain.

:40:11. > :40:14.But on the basis of their performance so far, what I don't

:40:15. > :40:17.trust is this government to achieve the best for our country if we had

:40:18. > :40:21.trust is this government to achieve the best for our country if we hand

:40:22. > :40:23.them that blank cheque of a bill. MAN: Hear, hear!

:40:24. > :40:26.Paul Farrelly, who voted against the wishes of his party,

:40:27. > :40:28.the Government, and most of his constituents, presumably,

:40:29. > :40:30.just up the road from that key by-election in Stoke Central,

:40:31. > :40:34.Khalid, is your fellow Labour backbencher sort of mad,

:40:35. > :40:36.brave or a man of principle in your view?

:40:37. > :40:39.Well, Paul has always done things that he believes is right and he's

:40:40. > :40:41.taken this position quite strongly, and that's for him

:40:42. > :40:46.We have a line on this that we allow, we don't

:40:47. > :40:50.There was a will of the people in the referendum, we have

:40:51. > :40:55.to respect that, but we want to hold the government to account

:40:56. > :40:57.and we'll follow the progress through and we'll see what happens.

:40:58. > :40:59.As you know, there's an old adage in politics,

:41:00. > :41:02."the electorate is always right", and he sounded to sort

:41:03. > :41:04.of reinforced that stereotype that some people have,

:41:05. > :41:06.that the liberal left simply cannot come to terms that,

:41:07. > :41:11.on this occasion too, yes, the electorate may be right?

:41:12. > :41:14.Well, no, I think what he has done, he has the principal

:41:15. > :41:16.point that he's taken on, a lot of members -

:41:17. > :41:19.whose constituencies are in London were overwhelmingly Remain -

:41:20. > :41:23.have decided to take that option as well, so I think,

:41:24. > :41:26.whilst the party's line is quite clear, and those that have

:41:27. > :41:28.broken the whip have to face the consequences...

:41:29. > :41:30.47 divide, that is a major issue for the Labour Party

:41:31. > :41:32.itself in Parliament? Well, no.

:41:33. > :41:37.As Paul has done, there are people who feel very strong about it,

:41:38. > :41:40.and that should be and will be taken into account.

:41:41. > :41:43.Now, you of course, Anthea, a prominent Conservative MEP, so,

:41:44. > :41:47.in a sense, I'm wondering whether you and your colleagues,

:41:48. > :41:52.MEPs, are sort of biting your lip, as you see your party at Westminster

:41:53. > :41:58.I mean, at heart, we're complete Democrats, and I'm very pleased

:41:59. > :42:01.that there was an overwhelming majority for the triggering

:42:02. > :42:04.of Article 50 through the Parliament this week,

:42:05. > :42:07.um, and I certainly take issue with the MP for Newcastle,

:42:08. > :42:14.who claims that he doesn't trust the government to see it through.

:42:15. > :42:16.I absolutely think we've got the best person in Theresa May

:42:17. > :42:19.to get the best possible deal for Brexit,

:42:20. > :42:25.We've been talking about the Labour divisions, but as time goes by,

:42:26. > :42:27.and the potential terms become clearer, the potential

:42:28. > :42:30.divisions too within the Tory party starts to emerge

:42:31. > :42:33.Well, we did have Ken Clarke vote against, but...

:42:34. > :42:36.Just one. Just one.

:42:37. > :42:41.I think our party is very united around our new Prime Minister,

:42:42. > :42:45.and we trust her and her ability to get as a good deal.

:42:46. > :42:48.We'll wait and see how that develops.

:42:49. > :42:51.For the moment, thank you both very much indeed.

:42:52. > :42:54.Right, well, less than three months now, until a new Metro Mayor

:42:55. > :42:56.is elected to lead over three million Midlanders,

:42:57. > :42:57.in the conurbation stretching from Wolverhampton through

:42:58. > :43:02.It's clearly a very big job indeed, so should it be paid accordingly?

:43:03. > :43:06.Or, as a public servant, should the Executive Mayor

:43:07. > :43:10.take a significantly less generous salary?

:43:11. > :43:13.Well, our Political Reporter Matthew Bone has

:43:14. > :43:19.How much is a West Midlands Mayor worth?

:43:20. > :43:22.To find out, we're taking our mayoral pay chart out on the road.

:43:23. > :43:30.We're asking people to put their own suggestion down.

:43:31. > :43:33.We've got examples to help them out, so 140,000 is what the Mayor

:43:34. > :43:36.of London gets, 74,000 is what your average MP gets,

:43:37. > :43:38.28,000's the average wage across the country,

:43:39. > :43:39.and 14,500 is roughly the minimum wage,

:43:40. > :43:42.so how much is the Mayor worth? First stop, Birmingham.

:43:43. > :43:44.I think everybody would be horrified if you said ?1 million.

:43:45. > :43:46.Ha! But...

:43:47. > :43:52.Yeah, but I would think it would have to be well

:43:53. > :43:55.They don't really need to live on a massive wage.

:43:56. > :43:59.If they can live the ordinary, then they can understand all those

:44:00. > :44:01.I'm going for average. Yeah.

:44:02. > :44:06.Because I had a friend work for the...

:44:07. > :44:10.For the council, but they are having to put their lives on the line.

:44:11. > :44:12.The final decision on pay is still to be made,

:44:13. > :44:14.but some mayoral hopefuls are already setting

:44:15. > :44:17.What I'm proposing to do is to take the average salary

:44:18. > :44:20.for the West Midlands, because I think, if you want

:44:21. > :44:22.to represent people, you have to understand their lives

:44:23. > :44:26.I'd be very honoured and privileged to perform

:44:27. > :44:28.the role for ?30,000 a year, which is roughly the average

:44:29. > :44:31.living wage in this country, so it's an honour and privilege.

:44:32. > :44:33.You shouldn't be doing it for the money.

:44:34. > :44:36.So some candidates say they'll be happy with the average wage.

:44:37. > :44:41.You went for, um, 74,000, roughly the same as an MP.

:44:42. > :44:46.Because, like I say, I think it's a fair price.

:44:47. > :44:50.Average wage? Yeah.

:44:51. > :44:52.And you think that's a fair price for a mayor?

:44:53. > :44:55.I think it is fair, yeah, for what they do.

:44:56. > :44:57.This idea of politicians giving themselves a pay cut isn't new.

:44:58. > :45:01.Dave Nellist was an Labour MP for Coventry in the '80s,

:45:02. > :45:03.and paid himself what he called a worker's wage.

:45:04. > :45:06.Is this an example that the new Mayor should follow?

:45:07. > :45:08.I don't buy the argument that you pay loads more

:45:09. > :45:14.I happen to think an ambulance driver and paramedic saving one life

:45:15. > :45:22.I don't see somebody sitting in an office making strategic

:45:23. > :45:25.decisions as any more important than an ambulance driver.

:45:26. > :45:28.So do people here in Coventry think their new Mayor should

:45:29. > :45:31.receive an average wage, just like their old MP?

:45:32. > :45:38.So sort of just above an MP, at 74, sort of 84 here?

:45:39. > :45:39.28,000. The average wage?

:45:40. > :45:40.Yeah. Why is that?

:45:41. > :45:45.Because I don't think any one person deserves any more

:45:46. > :45:50.I think, if we are all about equality, then we should

:45:51. > :45:52.all be earning the same amount regardless of jobs.

:45:53. > :45:54.And here at the results from around West Bromwich,

:45:55. > :45:58.A lot of people did actually go for the average ?28,000

:45:59. > :46:00.for pay for the Mayor, but I think the most

:46:01. > :46:03.were between 31,000 and 71,000, so, between an MP and a police officer,

:46:04. > :46:06.and with a few people going for either extremes as well.

:46:07. > :46:08.So that's our straw poll from the streets.

:46:09. > :46:14.The final decision on pay will be made next month.

:46:15. > :46:18.And the Labour candidate, Sion Simon, says he'll abide

:46:19. > :46:21.by those pay recommendations due out next month.

:46:22. > :46:24.And the Liberal Democrat, Beverley Nielsen, tells me the Mayor

:46:25. > :46:27.should decide whether to draw a full salary or not.

:46:28. > :46:31.Anthea, what do you think a mayor is worth?

:46:32. > :46:34.Let's say by comparison with an MEP such as yourself,

:46:35. > :46:40.Well, I rather believe in payment by results.

:46:41. > :46:45.I come from a business background, as indeed does Andy Street,

:46:46. > :46:48.having run John Lewis so successfully,

:46:49. > :46:54.having run John Lewis so successfully,

:46:55. > :46:57.So I think that we should have performance related pay,

:46:58. > :47:01.and so that the Andy Street, after he's elected, would sit down

:47:02. > :47:05.with the board of the authority and agree some performance targets,

:47:06. > :47:08.and then we know that the people whose lives are going to be

:47:09. > :47:11.affected, they will see that they get what they are paying

:47:12. > :47:16.for and that the Mayor gets paid by what he delivers.

:47:17. > :47:19.OK, what should be the out markers, if you like?

:47:20. > :47:22.The high and the low limit of that and maybe the mean level?

:47:23. > :47:27.I know, and I'm not prepared to give you a figure.

:47:28. > :47:30.I think it has to be related to the sort of public

:47:31. > :47:34.officials in the city, but I think the really

:47:35. > :47:36.important thing is something that we could do completely fresh

:47:37. > :47:42.and new for the West Midlands region is to say, "We pay by results,"

:47:43. > :47:49.but also hold our Mayor to our account.

:47:50. > :47:53.OK, Beverly Nielsen, the Liberal Democrat candidate,

:47:54. > :47:56.also said to me that public servants should never be among

:47:57. > :48:00.the top paid people. Do you agree with that in principle?

:48:01. > :48:03.I'd quite like to see what your view of the sort of proper

:48:04. > :48:06.figure for a Labour, Tory, Lib Dem Mayor should be question?

:48:07. > :48:08.figure for a Labour, Tory, Lib Dem Mayor should be?

:48:09. > :48:10.Well, in principle, that is the case.

:48:11. > :48:14.All the politicians' salaries are set by an independent panel.

:48:15. > :48:15.They decide, in line with the responsibilities,

:48:16. > :48:18.and particularly in line with civil servant pay that we get,

:48:19. > :48:20.so it's in line with that that it is determined,

:48:21. > :48:23.so it's difficult for us to put a figure on it.

:48:24. > :48:26.Well, try, you must have a sort of instinctive feel for something.

:48:27. > :48:28.You know, somewhere around what we get is reasonable,

:48:29. > :48:31.probably slightly higher, because... Which is about 74-75,000.

:48:32. > :48:34...because it's a wider responsibility, but a far bigger

:48:35. > :48:38.But what the Tory proposal and what Andy is proposing

:48:39. > :48:39.is complete nonsense, because how

:48:40. > :48:42.do you set these targets? How will you do them?

:48:43. > :48:46.What happens in an election, we are elected for four years,

:48:47. > :48:48.people set the targets, because, if you don't perform,

:48:49. > :48:51.they kick you out and that's the best way to do it -

:48:52. > :48:54.if you don't deliver, you get kicked out, simple as that.

:48:55. > :48:56.It's the electorate, rather than the kind of performance?

:48:57. > :49:00.In fact, it's going to be both, isn't it?

:49:01. > :49:03.So that you could, for example, have targets around employment.

:49:04. > :49:06.I mean, we're fortunate here in the West Midlands.

:49:07. > :49:08.We've seen unemployment fall, the record employment,

:49:09. > :49:12.It's important, if we're going to have a global Britain,

:49:13. > :49:14.that we also have a global West Midlands,

:49:15. > :49:20.So, if a major company comes in, and you get much more employment,

:49:21. > :49:24.the Mayor, whoever he or she is, will then far exceed

:49:25. > :49:29.any salaries than they should be getting in the first place,

:49:30. > :49:34.so, because certain circumstances that happen in the region, like JLR

:49:35. > :49:38.like JLR have set the new engine plant up, does that mean that

:49:39. > :49:40.because of something like that have happened?

:49:41. > :49:43.What about this argument we heard there from the Ukip and Greens,

:49:44. > :49:46.and indeed from Dave Nellist, that something more like average

:49:47. > :49:48.Midlanders' incomes would be very appropriate in this case

:49:49. > :49:51.Well, I'm happy that the basic pay is relatively low.

:49:52. > :49:54.I mean, frankly, whatever we paid someone like Andy Street,

:49:55. > :49:57.he's going to be taking a pay cut, and he's not bothered about that.

:49:58. > :50:05.I don't think it's an issue about a basic, I think the issue

:50:06. > :50:08.is realistic pay that should be set, and having these bonuses

:50:09. > :50:11.and stuff that you put on, you're going to get into the same

:50:12. > :50:13.problems that we've got in Parliament about expenses

:50:14. > :50:14.and about bonuses, these sort of things.

:50:15. > :50:17.All you're going to do is disrepute the whole thing.

:50:18. > :50:20.I think the best thing to do is to set those levels in relation

:50:21. > :50:23.to Parliament and for us to go on and do the work that

:50:24. > :50:25.we're supposed to do and let the electorate decide

:50:26. > :50:29.James Burn, the Green candidate, has talked about handing

:50:30. > :50:32.over a lot of his pay, if he gets it, to charity

:50:33. > :50:35.That might look to some like a pretty classy gesture, actually.

:50:36. > :50:38.But it is just a gesture, because he's not going to get elected.

:50:39. > :50:42.It is a gesture, both in terms of not being able to get elected,

:50:43. > :50:44.but secondly, also of actually delivering a reasonable amount

:50:45. > :50:47.across the most 4 or 5 million people that you're likely to serve.

:50:48. > :50:50.For the moment, thank you both very much indeed.

:50:51. > :50:52.Well, here as elsewhere, President Donald Trump

:50:53. > :50:57.Someone said during his campaign, "political commentators take him

:50:58. > :51:04.American voters take him seriously, but not literally".

:51:05. > :51:06.Well, it turns out we need to take him literally too.

:51:07. > :51:08.He's now doing exactly what he said he would.

:51:09. > :51:12.Ben Sidwell explains how it's hitting home right here.

:51:13. > :51:17...Trump hate, so Trump's not great. PEOPLE CHANT.

:51:18. > :51:20.It was a week when changes to US immigration policy brought hundreds

:51:21. > :51:26.Birmingham saw the largest demo against President Trump's

:51:27. > :51:30.Students at the University of Warwick made their feelings plain.

:51:31. > :51:34.There was even a demonstration in Cheltenham.

:51:35. > :51:37.In the Commons, there was anger that the new President will be

:51:38. > :51:41.invited to address Parliament on his forthcoming state visit.

:51:42. > :51:46.If indeed this visit of this wretched man, bigoted man,

:51:47. > :51:50.is going to take place, can we be reassured that,

:51:51. > :51:52.under no circumstances, will he address Parliament

:51:53. > :52:00.in Westminster Hall? That in itself would be a disgrace!

:52:01. > :52:04.Earlier in the week, the Baghdad-born MP

:52:05. > :52:07.for Stratford-on-Avon toured the TV studios, believing the new rules

:52:08. > :52:09.meant he couldn't visit his sons who are studying

:52:10. > :52:13.in the United States. It later turned out that he could.

:52:14. > :52:15.And there were no hard feelings from him when it came

:52:16. > :52:20.I want President Trump to come to the UK, he is the leader

:52:21. > :52:23.of the United States of America... And the state visit?

:52:24. > :52:25.I do want him to come on state visit.

:52:26. > :52:28.We had President Xi from China, on a state visit.

:52:29. > :52:31.We don't agree with everything that China does.

:52:32. > :52:35.But for ten Midlands Labour MPs, inviting President Trump to address

:52:36. > :52:38.Parliament is a step too far and they've signed a Commons motion

:52:39. > :52:44.And we're also joined here today by Scott Lucas,

:52:45. > :52:47.Professor of American Politics at the University of Birmingham.

:52:48. > :52:51.He was born in Birmingham too - Birmingham, Alabama that is.

:52:52. > :52:54.And he himself signed that petition against

:52:55. > :52:58.President Trump's state visit. Why exactly did you do that?

:52:59. > :53:01.Well, I have no objection to President Trump coming to talk

:53:02. > :53:05.Like matters of Nato, matters of decency over

:53:06. > :53:10.immigration, religion and race. But a state visit?

:53:11. > :53:15.That's an honour, that's a ceremony, in which which we endorse someone.

:53:16. > :53:18.I don't believe we endorse, for example, the Chinese leader.

:53:19. > :53:21.We should, and we certainly shouldn't endorse a man

:53:22. > :53:22.like President Trump, who's been very divisive

:53:23. > :53:27.So do have sympathy with those MPs who have signed that

:53:28. > :53:29.Commons motion saying that, under no circumstances,

:53:30. > :53:33.should he be allowed to address both houses?

:53:34. > :53:37.I mean, Ronald Reagan waited years before he was given that honour.

:53:38. > :53:39.Why give it to President Trump within two weeks?

:53:40. > :53:41.But you're saying that an official visit,

:53:42. > :53:44.by the sound of it - that's what I took from

:53:45. > :53:46.what you said there - an official visit might be

:53:47. > :53:48.a different matter? It's a different matter.

:53:49. > :53:51.Because there are matters that are very important to our countries.

:53:52. > :53:55.There is the issue of the trade deal post-Brexit, the issue

:53:56. > :53:57.of our military relationship, with President Trump saying

:53:58. > :54:00.There's the matter of relations with Russia,

:54:01. > :54:02.a very aggressive Russia, which he seems to want to befriend,

:54:03. > :54:05.so, yes, absolutely welcome him, but do not give him the honour.

:54:06. > :54:07.As an American living here in the Midlands,

:54:08. > :54:10.what does it make you feel like when you see your head of state

:54:11. > :54:13.being the subject of protests on the street like that?

:54:14. > :54:16.And we've seen them before, of course, we need to remember,

:54:17. > :54:19.under George W Bush and indeed Ronald Reagan.

:54:20. > :54:22.It makes me feel proud to be in a Birmingham, England -

:54:23. > :54:25.multicultural, welcoming people, that we can protest peacefully.

:54:26. > :54:29.At the same time, I'm really concerned.

:54:30. > :54:32.I'm concerned that my country is being debated by

:54:33. > :54:34.a very poisonous atmosphere, to which the president and

:54:35. > :54:39.I honestly believe this is an unprecedented moment,

:54:40. > :54:41.where the American system is under the greatest challenge

:54:42. > :54:47.Hasn't Theresa May sort of stoked up an entirely

:54:48. > :54:49.avoidable storm of protest, in the way, by being

:54:50. > :54:55.Where really, as Scott was saying, it's the sort of thing that maybe

:54:56. > :54:58.should have come in due course, rather than just as a sort

:54:59. > :55:02.of first opening invitation? No, not at all.

:55:03. > :55:05.I think that Theresa May was absolutely right to go and see

:55:06. > :55:10.He is the democratically-elected President of the United

:55:11. > :55:16.America is hugely important to Britain.

:55:17. > :55:19.Britain is, I believe, its closest ally and we should act

:55:20. > :55:28.And so, by going to America, as the Prime Minister did,

:55:29. > :55:31.she came back with his agreement that he was 100% behind Nato.

:55:32. > :55:38.So I think it's important that we invite him to prison,

:55:39. > :55:41.-- So I think it's important that we invite him to Britain,

:55:42. > :55:43.that we look after him, and that we influence him,

:55:44. > :55:45.because no better influence than have British influence

:55:46. > :55:49.I'll come back to you, Scott, in a second on that.

:55:50. > :55:51.But, Khalid, since we put that package together,

:55:52. > :55:54.you've became the 11th Labour MP to sign the motion.

:55:55. > :55:59.I think it's absolutely absurd to invite Donald Trump.

:56:00. > :56:02.I think Mrs May was wrong to go, the very first one out

:56:03. > :56:05.Basically, because we hold some principles.

:56:06. > :56:08.This is what, not just about a particular leader,

:56:09. > :56:11.I don't think he's doing any service to America, I don't think he's doing

:56:12. > :56:14.service to the Western world in the way that he is behaving,

:56:15. > :56:17.the way he's treating people, the way he has negated

:56:18. > :56:19.the refugee convention, and all of those rights that

:56:20. > :56:20.he's negating, and women's rights particularly,

:56:21. > :56:22.religious rights, and rights of all people generally,

:56:23. > :56:31.Anthea and made a very clear statement they of why

:56:32. > :56:35.thing for Theresa May to do - what would you say to that?

:56:36. > :56:38.Oh, I think the Prime Minister was fine to go to the United States.

:56:39. > :56:41.But the problem is she wasn't a critical friend, she appeared

:56:42. > :56:44.to be a friend that was bowing down to Trump, both in gestures

:56:45. > :56:47.and that she didn't actually talk about things, like his endorsement

:56:48. > :56:50.of torture, and that she came back and told us that we're

:56:51. > :56:54.Well, we're not going to get this deal for many years.

:56:55. > :56:58.If we're going to negotiate with America, which we should,

:56:59. > :57:01.we should do so standing up and not on bended knee.

:57:02. > :57:03.I mean, this region is one of the biggest regional

:57:04. > :57:07.Think of all those Land Rovers and all the rest of it.

:57:08. > :57:11.We have a trade surplus, as I understand it, but isn't

:57:12. > :57:13.there a danger that these negotiations are a matter of give

:57:14. > :57:17.and take and it's going to be a matter of they take and we give?

:57:18. > :57:22.The example I gave of getting him to say yes, he is 100% behind Nato,

:57:23. > :57:25.was an indication of the influence that we can and have...

:57:26. > :57:27.But doesn't he change his opinions from day to day?

:57:28. > :57:31.He may well, but we want him to keep coming back

:57:32. > :57:35.So I think, the more influence we have, the better.

:57:36. > :57:37.And also in agreement that we want to draw with them,

:57:38. > :57:41.we're also proud of our National Health Service

:57:42. > :57:44.and what we will end up doing, if we don't do a proper deal

:57:45. > :57:46.is that they will have access to huge amounts

:57:47. > :57:49.of our health service and, if we don't agree to let them in,

:57:50. > :57:52.they can take us to court, as Americans generally do

:57:53. > :57:55.in these sort of issues. So we need to be very careful.

:57:56. > :57:58.This is a symptom of what we haven't done right in terms of Brexit.

:57:59. > :58:00.This government has produced a shoddy piece of work,

:58:01. > :58:03.in terms of the bill that we are trying to face

:58:04. > :58:05.now, trying to amend and trying to sort out.

:58:06. > :58:07.What she needed to do was to get real detail

:58:08. > :58:10.into that, so that we can have a reasonable exit forward.

:58:11. > :58:13.I supported the vote, but we want to hold them to account

:58:14. > :58:17.OK, very, very quick last work on that particular point before

:58:18. > :58:20.Theresa May is absolutely right, having influence on America,

:58:21. > :58:23.in terms of trade and defence, is hugely important.

:58:24. > :58:25.We could go on longer, but for the moment,

:58:26. > :58:28.thank you very much indeed, and particular thanks to you, Scott,

:58:29. > :58:30.for being with us today. Thank you.

:58:31. > :58:32.Right, time now for our look back at another

:58:33. > :58:36.Our round-up of the main developments making the news

:58:37. > :58:38.here is brought to us today by Kathryn Stanczyszyn

:58:39. > :58:46.Police are investigating a claim of electoral fraud

:58:47. > :58:49.against Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, after allegations

:58:50. > :58:52.he wasn't living at the address he listed on his nomination papers

:58:53. > :58:58.Liberal Democrat, Beverley Nielsen, launched her campaign to become

:58:59. > :59:01.Her top priority - keeping the region in

:59:02. > :59:08.Nearly 300 jobs are to go at Walsall Council, as the authority

:59:09. > :59:16.Council tax will rise by almost 5% and nine libraries will close.

:59:17. > :59:18.London Midland Train conductors have called off a strike ballot

:59:19. > :59:20.after the company abandoned use of private security

:59:21. > :59:25.And West Midlands MEP, Bill Etheridge, has

:59:26. > :59:29.complained to the authorities at the European Parliament

:59:30. > :59:32.after a Labour MEP held up a sign saying "he's lying to you"

:59:33. > :59:36.during a speech by former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.

:59:37. > :59:38.Sitting there with a little sign isn't really not on.

:59:39. > :59:42.You know, is this what the Labour Party is reduced to know?

:59:43. > :59:45.-- You know, is this what the Labour Party is reduced to now?

:59:46. > :59:48.They have no argument left, all they can do is call us names.

:59:49. > :59:51.Well, Bill Etheridge there, Khalid, is really not pulling his punches.

:59:52. > :59:53.He thinks you're once-great party is being reduced

:59:54. > :59:57.Well, no, I think, if you look at the Brexit campaign,

:59:58. > :00:03.the referendum campaign, a lot of untruths were told in that,

:00:04. > :00:06.and I think, what the MEP wanted to do was to hold him to account,

:00:07. > :00:08.but certainly, you wouldn't be able to do that

:00:09. > :00:10.in the British Parliament, because we don't allow

:00:11. > :00:14.As they say, a picture paints a thousand words and,

:00:15. > :00:17.given that you get so few words on the floor of the European

:00:18. > :00:20.Parliament, maybe that was actually quite a telling thing to do?

:00:21. > :00:22.It said more than a thousand words, didn't it?

:00:23. > :00:24.Well, it certainly did. I think that Ukip...

:00:25. > :00:27.The number of times they wave placards...

:00:28. > :00:32...they shout and disrupt, like schoolboy believes,

:00:33. > :00:34.- ..they shout and disrupt, like schoolboy bullies,

:00:35. > :00:37.I thought it was really too much for Etheridge to be seen complaining

:00:38. > :00:40.In a word, what makes a good protest, Khalid?

:00:41. > :00:43.I think a picture paints a thousand words, that's right.

:00:44. > :00:45.You hold something that's good, as it was done,

:00:46. > :00:47.it gets the message across. In a word, a good protest?

:00:48. > :00:49.Oh, pictures, always. Yeah, good.

:00:50. > :00:51.Well, plenty of pictures in this programme again to the end.

:00:52. > :00:53.Thank you very much indeed for being with us here.

:00:54. > :00:55.My thanks to Anthea McIntyre and Khalid Mahmood.

:00:56. > :00:58.Well, finally from me, after all those rail delays lately,

:00:59. > :01:01.HS2 is on time, or at least the legislation is.

:01:02. > :01:04.There'd been suggestions it may be shunted into Parliament's sidings,

:01:05. > :01:10.But Phase One of the ?56 billion project has passed

:01:11. > :01:12.through Westminster Junction, and awaits the Royal Assent

:01:13. > :01:17.Well, next week, Sunday Politics will come to you live

:01:18. > :01:20.from Staffordshire University, right in the heart of that key

:01:21. > :01:24.It's the most eagerly-awaited by-election in our part

:01:25. > :01:31.This, though, is where we re-join Andrew Neil.

:01:32. > :01:35.programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

:01:36. > :01:40.you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:41. > :01:44.Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

:01:45. > :01:47.Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

:01:48. > :01:52.And what is President Trump going to do next?

:01:53. > :02:09.You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

:02:10. > :02:15.you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

:02:16. > :02:18.stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

:02:19. > :02:24.will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

:02:25. > :02:27.supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

:02:28. > :02:31.of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

:02:32. > :02:36.forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

:02:37. > :02:39.they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

:02:40. > :02:43.to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

:02:44. > :02:47.beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

:02:48. > :02:52.for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

:02:53. > :02:58.defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

:02:59. > :03:05.as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

:03:06. > :03:09.Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

:03:10. > :03:14.ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

:03:15. > :03:17.2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

:03:18. > :03:23.Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

:03:24. > :03:26.happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

:03:27. > :03:30.local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

:03:31. > :03:34.seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

:03:35. > :03:38.that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

:03:39. > :03:42.overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

:03:43. > :03:47.find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

:03:48. > :03:51.the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

:03:52. > :03:59.force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

:04:00. > :04:06.Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

:04:07. > :04:09.countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

:04:10. > :04:13.have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

:04:14. > :04:17.fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

:04:18. > :04:21.built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

:04:22. > :04:25.green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

:04:26. > :04:31.do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

:04:32. > :04:36.farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

:04:37. > :04:41.belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

:04:42. > :04:46.agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

:04:47. > :04:49.In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

:04:50. > :04:54.area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

:04:55. > :04:58.always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

:04:59. > :05:01.pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

:05:02. > :05:09.They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

:05:10. > :05:13.older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

:05:14. > :05:19.anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

:05:20. > :05:23.is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

:05:24. > :05:27.system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

:05:28. > :05:30.the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

:05:31. > :05:34.the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

:05:35. > :05:38.track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

:05:39. > :05:45.it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

:05:46. > :05:50.in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

:05:51. > :05:55.three years to give the young families a certain stability over

:05:56. > :05:59.that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

:06:00. > :06:04.if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

:06:05. > :06:08.it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

:06:09. > :06:13.their policy now. This is probably item number four of

:06:14. > :06:16.Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

:06:17. > :06:21.last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

:06:22. > :06:26.mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

:06:27. > :06:30.be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

:06:31. > :06:32.grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

:06:33. > :06:39.grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

:06:40. > :06:41.bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

:06:42. > :06:47.that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

:06:48. > :06:50.target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

:06:51. > :06:55.happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

:06:56. > :06:58.one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

:06:59. > :07:04.willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

:07:05. > :07:09.that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

:07:10. > :07:16.How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

:07:17. > :07:21.over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

:07:22. > :07:26.vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

:07:27. > :07:31.quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

:07:32. > :07:36.seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

:07:37. > :07:39.last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

:07:40. > :07:42.Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

:07:43. > :07:48.about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

:07:49. > :07:52.vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

:07:53. > :07:56.and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

:07:57. > :08:00.amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

:08:01. > :08:05.veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

:08:06. > :08:09.vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

:08:10. > :08:14.case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

:08:15. > :08:17.go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

:08:18. > :08:22.views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

:08:23. > :08:29.understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

:08:30. > :08:34.that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

:08:35. > :08:38.Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

:08:39. > :08:43.go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

:08:44. > :08:48.again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

:08:49. > :08:54.the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

:08:55. > :08:57.begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

:08:58. > :09:00.and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

:09:01. > :09:05.particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

:09:06. > :09:10.Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

:09:11. > :09:13.next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

:09:14. > :09:18.end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

:09:19. > :09:21.on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

:09:22. > :09:25.deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

:09:26. > :09:32.out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

:09:33. > :09:35.great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

:09:36. > :09:39.on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

:09:40. > :09:42.vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

:09:43. > :09:48.remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

:09:49. > :09:52.it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

:09:53. > :09:57.one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

:09:58. > :10:00.against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

:10:01. > :10:07.parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

:10:08. > :10:13.majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

:10:14. > :10:22.recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

:10:23. > :10:27.self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

:10:28. > :10:30.this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

:10:31. > :10:35.have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

:10:36. > :10:40.the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

:10:41. > :10:47.their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

:10:48. > :10:51.you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

:10:52. > :10:54.as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

:10:55. > :10:58.saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

:10:59. > :11:02.what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

:11:03. > :11:06.you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

:11:07. > :11:13.went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

:11:14. > :11:16.American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

:11:17. > :11:19.America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

:11:20. > :11:24.As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

:11:25. > :11:27.This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

:11:28. > :11:30.on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

:11:31. > :11:36.anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

:11:37. > :11:41.talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

:11:42. > :11:43.happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

:11:44. > :11:47.are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

:11:48. > :11:51.the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

:11:52. > :11:59.who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

:12:00. > :12:01.Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

:12:02. > :12:06.these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

:12:07. > :12:11.having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

:12:12. > :12:15.cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

:12:16. > :12:20.chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

:12:21. > :12:24.that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

:12:25. > :12:28.we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

:12:29. > :12:35.there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

:12:36. > :12:38.campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

:12:39. > :12:42.daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

:12:43. > :12:45.pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

:12:46. > :12:50.Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

:12:51. > :12:54.populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

:12:55. > :12:57.are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

:12:58. > :13:00.American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

:13:01. > :13:05.their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

:13:06. > :13:12.as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

:13:13. > :13:14.have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

:13:15. > :13:18.and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

:13:19. > :13:20.America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

:13:21. > :13:24.Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

:13:25. > :13:26.the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

:13:27. > :14:05.Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

:14:06. > :14:18.TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

:14:19. > :14:32.so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?