:00:36. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:45. > :00:46.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:47. > :00:49.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:50. > :00:55.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:56. > :00:57.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:58. > :01:00.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:01. > :01:05.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:06. > :01:11.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:12. > :01:13.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:14. > :01:17.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:18. > :01:20.And in the Midlands: We are at the wrong end of
:01:21. > :01:24.hospital bed-blocking delays here are among the worst in England.
:01:25. > :01:36.Join us without delay in half an hour.
:01:37. > :01:40.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:41. > :01:42.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:43. > :01:46.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:47. > :01:48.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:49. > :01:52.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:53. > :01:54.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:55. > :01:59.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:00. > :02:05.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:06. > :02:07.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:08. > :02:10.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:11. > :02:14.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:15. > :02:16.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:17. > :02:21.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:22. > :02:24.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:25. > :02:35.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:36. > :02:42.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:43. > :02:46.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:47. > :02:48.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:49. > :03:00.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:01. > :03:06.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:07. > :03:10.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:11. > :03:14.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:15. > :03:19.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:20. > :03:24.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:25. > :03:29.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:30. > :03:33.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:34. > :03:38.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:39. > :03:43.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:44. > :03:49.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:50. > :03:56.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:57. > :04:00.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:01. > :04:04.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:05. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:14.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:15. > :04:19.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:20. > :04:22.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:23. > :04:28.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:29. > :04:32.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:33. > :04:36.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:37. > :04:43.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:44. > :04:47.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:48. > :04:52.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:53. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:02.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:03. > :05:06.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:07. > :05:10.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:11. > :05:15.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:16. > :05:18.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:19. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:28.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:29. > :05:35.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:36. > :05:41.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:42. > :05:47.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:48. > :05:51.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:52. > :05:56.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:57. > :06:03.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:04. > :06:09.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:10. > :06:13.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:14. > :06:17.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:18. > :06:22.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:23. > :06:29.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:30. > :06:33.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:34. > :06:38.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:39. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:49.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:50. > :06:55.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:56. > :07:01.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:02. > :07:06.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:07. > :07:10.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:11. > :07:14.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:15. > :07:17.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:18. > :07:22.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:23. > :07:27.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:28. > :07:31.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:32. > :07:34.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:35. > :07:37.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:38. > :07:40.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:41. > :07:42.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:43. > :07:45.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:46. > :07:48.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:49. > :07:54.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:55. > :07:58.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:59. > :08:02.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:03. > :08:05.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:06. > :08:09.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:10. > :08:13.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:14. > :08:16."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:17. > :08:18.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:19. > :08:20.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:21. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:35.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:36. > :08:41.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:42. > :08:44.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:45. > :08:45.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:46. > :08:48.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:49. > :08:52.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:53. > :08:58.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:59. > :09:01.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:02. > :09:05.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:06. > :09:12.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:13. > :09:15.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:16. > :09:21.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:22. > :09:25.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:26. > :09:32.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:33. > :09:39.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:40. > :09:45.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:46. > :09:49.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:50. > :09:53.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:54. > :09:57.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:58. > :10:02.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:03. > :10:06.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:07. > :10:11.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:12. > :10:19.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:20. > :10:25.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:26. > :10:30.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:31. > :10:35.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:36. > :10:43.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:44. > :10:47.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:48. > :10:51.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:52. > :10:56.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:57. > :11:00.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:01. > :11:06.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:07. > :11:11.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:12. > :11:16.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:17. > :11:21.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:22. > :11:24.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:25. > :11:30.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:31. > :11:33.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:34. > :11:40.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:41. > :11:46.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:47. > :11:51.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:52. > :11:56.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:57. > :12:03.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:04. > :12:07.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:08. > :12:12.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:13. > :12:16.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:17. > :12:22.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:23. > :12:27.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:28. > :12:31.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:32. > :12:35.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:36. > :12:41.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:42. > :12:45.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:46. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:55.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:56. > :13:01.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:02. > :13:09.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:10. > :13:14.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:15. > :13:19.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:20. > :13:23.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:24. > :13:27.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:28. > :13:34.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:35. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:45.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:46. > :13:48.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:49. > :13:54.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:55. > :14:02.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:03. > :14:06.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:07. > :14:09.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:10. > :14:15.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:16. > :14:18.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:19. > :14:24.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:25. > :14:27.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:28. > :14:33.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:34. > :14:38.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:39. > :14:42.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:43. > :14:48.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:49. > :14:52.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:53. > :14:58.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:59. > :15:07.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:08. > :15:08.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:09. > :15:16.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:17. > :15:20.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:21. > :15:25.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:26. > :15:30.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:31. > :15:36.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:37. > :15:40.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:41. > :15:43.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:44. > :15:50.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:51. > :15:56.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:57. > :16:02.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:03. > :16:06.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:07. > :16:10.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:11. > :16:18.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:19. > :16:24.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:25. > :16:28.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:29. > :16:31.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:32. > :16:36.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:37. > :16:42.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:43. > :16:46.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:47. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:58.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:59. > :17:03.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:04. > :17:12.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:13. > :17:17.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:18. > :17:24.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:25. > :17:28.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:29. > :17:33.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:34. > :17:36.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:37. > :17:39.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:40. > :17:44.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:45. > :17:48.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:49. > :17:54.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:55. > :18:08.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:09. > :18:12.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:13. > :18:18.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:19. > :18:24.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:25. > :18:29.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:30. > :18:34.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:35. > :18:41.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:42. > :18:47.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:48. > :18:52.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:53. > :18:55.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:56. > :19:04.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:05. > :19:07.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:08. > :19:10.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:11. > :19:12.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:13. > :19:15.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:16. > :19:20.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:21. > :19:26.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:27. > :19:29.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:30. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:33.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:34. > :19:42.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:43. > :19:49.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:50. > :19:59.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:00. > :20:01.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:02. > :20:05.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:06. > :20:08.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:09. > :20:10.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:11. > :20:12.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:13. > :20:17.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:18. > :20:19.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:20. > :20:24.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:25. > :20:26.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:27. > :20:30.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:31. > :20:33.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:34. > :20:36.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:37. > :20:41.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:42. > :20:45.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:46. > :20:48.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:49. > :20:51.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:52. > :20:53.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:54. > :21:02.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:03. > :21:05.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:06. > :21:08.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:09. > :21:14.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:15. > :21:23.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:24. > :21:26.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:27. > :21:30.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:31. > :21:33.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:34. > :21:36.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:37. > :21:38.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:39. > :21:43.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:44. > :21:46.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:47. > :21:49.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:50. > :21:53.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:54. > :21:58.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:59. > :22:03.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:04. > :22:05.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:06. > :22:09.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:10. > :22:11.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:12. > :22:20.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:21. > :22:23.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:24. > :22:25.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:26. > :22:32.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:33. > :22:41.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:42. > :22:45.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:46. > :22:47.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:48. > :22:50.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:51. > :22:53.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:54. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:08.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:09. > :23:10.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:11. > :23:13.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:14. > :23:19.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:20. > :23:21.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:22. > :23:24.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:25. > :23:28.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:29. > :23:34.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:35. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:43.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:44. > :23:58.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:59. > :24:04.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:05. > :24:08.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:09. > :24:12.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:13. > :24:16.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:17. > :24:22.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:23. > :24:26.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:27. > :24:29.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:30. > :24:35.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:36. > :24:41.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:42. > :24:46.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:47. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:53.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:54. > :24:58.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:59. > :25:03.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:04. > :25:07.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:08. > :25:12.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:13. > :25:16.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:17. > :25:20.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:21. > :25:23.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:24. > :25:29.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:30. > :25:32.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:33. > :25:38.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:39. > :25:43.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:44. > :25:48.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:49. > :25:55.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:56. > :25:58.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:59. > :26:02.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:03. > :26:22.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:23. > :26:28.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:29. > :26:33.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:34. > :26:36.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:37. > :26:42.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:43. > :26:46.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:47. > :26:51.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:52. > :26:59.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:00. > :27:08.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:09. > :27:11.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:12. > :27:17.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:18. > :27:23.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:24. > :27:27.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:28. > :27:30.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:31. > :27:35.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:36. > :27:42.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:43. > :27:47.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:48. > :27:54.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:55. > :28:02.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:03. > :28:06.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:07. > :28:11.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:12. > :28:18.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:19. > :28:24.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:25. > :28:28.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:29. > :28:30.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:31. > :28:37.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:38. > :28:45.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:46. > :28:50.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:51. > :28:56.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:57. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:08.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:09. > :29:17.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:18. > :29:21.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:22. > :29:28.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:29. > :29:34.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:35. > :29:40.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:41. > :29:43.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:44. > :29:47.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:48. > :29:53.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:54. > :29:58.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:59. > :30:01.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:02. > :30:09.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:10. > :30:10.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:11. > :30:24.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:25. > :30:28.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:29. > :30:30.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:31. > :30:36.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:37. > :30:43.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:44. > :30:49.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:50. > :30:53.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:54. > :30:59.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:00. > :31:06.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:07. > :31:13.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:14. > :31:16.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:17. > :31:21.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:22. > :31:25.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:26. > :31:31.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:32. > :31:35.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:36. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:47.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:48. > :31:51.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:52. > :31:55.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:56. > :31:58.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:59. > :32:03.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:04. > :32:07.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:08. > :32:10.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:11. > :32:13.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:14. > :32:17.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:18. > :32:20.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:21. > :32:23.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:24. > :32:28.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:29. > :32:31.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:32. > :32:37.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:38. > :32:40.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:41. > :32:45.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:46. > :32:48.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:49. > :32:54.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:55. > :32:58.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:59. > :33:04.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:05. > :33:08.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:09. > :33:14.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:15. > :33:18.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:19. > :33:21.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:22. > :33:28.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:29. > :33:33.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:34. > :33:39.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:40. > :33:44.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:45. > :33:49.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:50. > :33:55.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:56. > :34:00.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:01. > :34:05.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:06. > :34:08.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:09. > :34:13.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:14. > :34:18.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:19. > :34:22.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:23. > :34:27.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:28. > :34:34.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:35. > :34:37.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:38. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:48.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:49. > :34:54.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:55. > :34:58.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:59. > :35:03.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:04. > :35:08.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:09. > :35:13.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:14. > :35:16.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:17. > :35:20.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:21. > :35:25.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:26. > :35:29.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:30. > :35:33.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:34. > :35:39.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:40. > :35:43.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:44. > :35:47.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:48. > :35:53.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:54. > :35:57.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:58. > :36:01.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:02. > :36:06.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:07. > :36:09.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:10. > :36:15.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:16. > :36:20.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:21. > :36:27.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:28. > :36:33.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:34. > :36:38.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:39. > :36:44.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:45. > :36:48.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:49. > :36:52.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:53. > :36:57.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:58. > :37:01.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:02. > :37:06.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:07. > :37:12.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:13. > :37:17.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:18. > :37:23.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:24. > :37:28.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:29. > :37:31.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:32. > :37:37.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:38. > :37:42.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:43. > :37:47.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:48. > :37:51.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:52. > :37:56.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:57. > :38:01.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:02. > :38:06.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:07. > :38:11.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:12. > :38:18.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:19. > :38:25.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:26. > :38:31.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:32. > :38:36.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:37. > :38:37.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:38. > :38:39.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:40. > :38:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:43. > :38:44.in Scotland who leave us now Welcome to the Sunday
:38:45. > :38:56.Politics in the Midlands. They're two of the Government's
:38:57. > :38:58.biggest headaches, and they're our main talking points here today:
:38:59. > :39:01.the one's Brexit and the other's Hospitals in Coventry,
:39:02. > :39:07.Birmingham and Stoke have some of the worst levels
:39:08. > :39:09.of "bed-blocking" At least ministers have Brexit,
:39:10. > :39:14.by way of light relief. Gisela Stuart chaired the victorious
:39:15. > :39:19."Vote Leave" campaign. She's the Labour MP
:39:20. > :39:22.for Birmingham Edgbaston. Jeremy Wright sits in the Cabinet
:39:23. > :39:25.as Attorney General. He's the Conservative MP
:39:26. > :39:28.for Kenilworth and Southam. Good to have you both
:39:29. > :39:30.with us here today. And we'll also be joined
:39:31. > :39:33.by the former Conservative Health Secretary Stephen Dorrell,
:39:34. > :39:36.who now chairs Let's begin, though,
:39:37. > :39:41.with the election for the leadership of Britain's biggest union,
:39:42. > :39:44.Unite, widely seen as a proxy war about who should
:39:45. > :39:48.lead the Labour Party. Unite's Midlands Secretary,
:39:49. > :39:51.Gerard Coyne, is campaigning to depose the left-wing
:39:52. > :39:54.General Secretary Len McCluskey, who's one of Jeremy Corbyn's most
:39:55. > :39:58.influential supporters. But Mr McCluskey now has the support
:39:59. > :40:01.of the union's biggest branch, at Jaguar Land Rover in Solihull,
:40:02. > :40:06.along with over 1,100 That's about 80% of the total,
:40:07. > :40:10.compared with just 187 The result's expected
:40:11. > :40:18.at the end of next month. Now, I know, Gisela,
:40:19. > :40:21.you will tell me that this election is a matter for the union,
:40:22. > :40:24.but in terms of this proxy issue about the future of the Labour Party
:40:25. > :40:27.and the leadership, isn't it becoming increasingly clear, really,
:40:28. > :40:30.that for moderates like you, the best way of seeing the end
:40:31. > :40:34.of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership is to I am a Unite member,
:40:35. > :40:44.so I shall have a vote in that, and I certainly will vote
:40:45. > :40:47.for the man who has been good for the west Midlands,
:40:48. > :40:49.and I hope he will continue to be good for the West Midlands
:40:50. > :40:52.as a general secretary, so I hope Gerard Coyne does win,
:40:53. > :40:55.because he understands the region and he would be someone
:40:56. > :41:00.who will also understand that important link
:41:01. > :41:03.between the unions and the party. But the evidence before us,
:41:04. > :41:06.as I was trying to hint to you, whether you get the logic or not,
:41:07. > :41:09.is that Mr Coyne's position doesn't look particularly good
:41:10. > :41:11.at the moment, as we sit here today. Well, I think, you know,
:41:12. > :41:14.the party nominations, the branch nominations are ones
:41:15. > :41:17.that it will be one member, one Now, of course, from the Tory
:41:18. > :41:26.perspective, I mean, when I talk to Tory MPs,
:41:27. > :41:29.they feel that anything that helps preserve Jeremy Corbyn's position
:41:30. > :41:32.as Labour leader is good news for your party,
:41:33. > :41:34.so, presumably, you would favour Well, no, I think this
:41:35. > :41:38.is a matter for Unite members, and they will have to choose
:41:39. > :41:40.who they think will best represent them, and I think
:41:41. > :41:43.they are going to be much more interested in who they think
:41:44. > :41:46.will preserve their interests most successfully, and not so much
:41:47. > :41:49.in who is going to be interested in influencing the future direction
:41:50. > :41:52.of the leader of the Labour Party, so it is a matter for them,
:41:53. > :41:55.and I have to say this, I think, regardless of what particular
:41:56. > :41:57.nominations have been received for whom, if 2016
:41:58. > :41:59.has told us anything, it is you really should wait
:42:00. > :42:03.until the votes are counted before you make predictions of
:42:04. > :42:05.any kind at all. A cautionary tale for
:42:06. > :42:08.us all at the moment. Get better, and go home -
:42:09. > :42:13.most patients don't want to linger in hospital any longer
:42:14. > :42:15.than they absolutely have to, but it could amount to a death
:42:16. > :42:18.sentence to discharge elderly or vulnerable people
:42:19. > :42:22.without adequate support. With local authority budgets
:42:23. > :42:25.under so much pressure, it's increasingly difficult for them
:42:26. > :42:28.to fund social care, especially Shelley Phelps explains why
:42:29. > :42:33."bed-blocking" in our local There's been a sharp rise in cases
:42:34. > :42:42.of hospital bed-blocking Bed-blocking continues to be
:42:43. > :42:46.a problem for six health There seems to be a problem
:42:47. > :42:51.at the other end of the system, Ambulances queuing outside
:42:52. > :42:54.hospitals, patients waiting for hours on trolleys in corridors -
:42:55. > :42:57.the British Red Cross called it Just after Christmas,
:42:58. > :43:06.the NHS endured a day like no other. The Tuesday after Christmas
:43:07. > :43:08.was the busiest day So-called "bed-blocking" is blamed
:43:09. > :43:12.for fuelling for the crisis. Often, elderly patients can't be
:43:13. > :43:14.discharged because they're waiting for a care assessment,
:43:15. > :43:18.or NHS outpatient support. Figures compiled by the King's Fund
:43:19. > :43:21.show the problem is particularly Birmingham, Stoke-on-Trent
:43:22. > :43:28.and here in Coventry have some of the worst "bed-blocking" delays
:43:29. > :43:31.in the country. Come on, then, we've got to sit
:43:32. > :43:34.on the settee together. 82-year-old Ken Tucker
:43:35. > :43:38.from Coventry has dementia. His wife Christine is one
:43:39. > :43:41.of an army of "hidden carers" When he came out of hospital
:43:42. > :43:45.she was there to help, but that's because there is a lot
:43:46. > :43:51.that he has to have I do find it very lonely,
:43:52. > :44:03.and I will say this - The Government says local
:44:04. > :44:09.authorities can increase council tax by up to 3% over the next two years
:44:10. > :44:12.to help plug the social These measures, together
:44:13. > :44:17.with the changes we have made to the New Homes Bonus,
:44:18. > :44:19.will make almost ?900 million of additional funding for adult
:44:20. > :44:21.social care available over But council leaders
:44:22. > :44:31.say it's not enough. Fundamentally, I don't believe
:44:32. > :44:33.that's the right solution. It does not raise enough money
:44:34. > :44:37.to fill the gap that we have now. So, nationally, it raises just
:44:38. > :44:39.short of 600 million. The gap now, that's in one year,
:44:40. > :44:47.the gap now is 1.3 billion. Retirement villages
:44:48. > :44:50.like this one in Birmingham More like a hotel than a retirement
:44:51. > :44:56.home, it's even pet-friendly. Most of the apartments cost
:44:57. > :44:58.upwards of ?200,000, but some can be rented
:44:59. > :45:01.through the council. Care is available on site
:45:02. > :45:03.for those who need it, and there's a well-being service
:45:04. > :45:05.that looks to capture We followed up 162 of our residents
:45:06. > :45:10.from moving into an extra care environment, and we found that
:45:11. > :45:13.actually when somebody goes into hospital with an unplanned
:45:14. > :45:15.hospital stay, for something like breaking a hip,
:45:16. > :45:18.the average length of stay is eight to 14 days,
:45:19. > :45:20.whereas, with us, at extra care, the average stay is one to two days,
:45:21. > :45:23.so that a massive difference But while the adult social care
:45:24. > :45:30.funding crisis continues, for most people, places like this
:45:31. > :45:36.will remain out of reach. And we're also joined here today
:45:37. > :45:40.by the former Conservative Health Now Chair of the NHS Confederation,
:45:41. > :45:45.he's also heading a five-year improvement drive on health
:45:46. > :45:49.and social care across I am going to remind you, Stephen,
:45:50. > :45:55.of a conversation you and I had when you were Health Secretary,
:45:56. > :46:03.you said that you envisaged for the NHS what you called
:46:04. > :46:06.a "best-value health service". How does that square
:46:07. > :46:09.with this picture that we have their deficits,
:46:10. > :46:10.bed-blocking, and the Well, I think one of the things
:46:11. > :46:14.that we tried to do, and you were very kind to remember
:46:15. > :46:17.what happened when I was Health Secretary,
:46:18. > :46:19.it is quite a long time ago, but in the intervening years,
:46:20. > :46:25.during the Labour years and the coalition years,
:46:26. > :46:27.we have talked about the need to join the health service
:46:28. > :46:30.with social care, and with other We have talked about it
:46:31. > :46:35.but we haven't done it. And that's why last summer
:46:36. > :46:38.Simon Stephens, the chief executive of the health service,
:46:39. > :46:44.came, actually, to the NHS Confederation conference, and said,
:46:45. > :46:46.if you want sustainable, good value health care,
:46:47. > :46:49.you need to invest in social care and other public services
:46:50. > :46:52.so that the health service isn't trying to deal with all of these
:46:53. > :46:55.problems on its own, Investment, obviously, is a big
:46:56. > :47:02.issue, but around the edges, I was surprised to be
:47:03. > :47:05.contacted the other day by Hertfordshire County Council,
:47:06. > :47:08.when they heard that we were doing this item, and they said that
:47:09. > :47:12.they've actually established a, sort of, online one-stop shop,
:47:13. > :47:17.where it's possible to see, almost like an app, what hospital
:47:18. > :47:21.beds need, beds, care You can fit the two together
:47:22. > :47:25.and there is even a system for health carers and individuals
:47:26. > :47:31.to use these. That might be something that
:47:32. > :47:34.could be used for more generally, and maybe in Birmingham
:47:35. > :47:36.and Solihull as well. The essential truth is that
:47:37. > :47:40.if you want to deliver high-value, high quality, good value health
:47:41. > :47:42.care, you have to see the health service as part
:47:43. > :47:45.of a range of public services. To quote an example,
:47:46. > :47:48.when they address some of these issues in the state of New York
:47:49. > :47:50.and other contributions to the NHS Confederation
:47:51. > :47:59.conference last year, we asked, what is the most
:48:00. > :48:01.effective health care intervention The answer was improved housing
:48:02. > :48:05.for low income groups, so that people could look
:48:06. > :48:07.after themselves and live independently, and not rely
:48:08. > :48:09.on the health service to deliver It seems that what Stephen
:48:10. > :48:13.is saying is that under the watch, if you like,
:48:14. > :48:15.of both your administrations, we have become overdependent
:48:16. > :48:18.on the most expensive form of health When Labour were in,
:48:19. > :48:23.you double the investment in the health service and yet,
:48:24. > :48:26.as we know, many hospitals were headed towards clinical
:48:27. > :48:30.and financial unsustainability But what you can't do
:48:31. > :48:34.is take this in isolation. So, we put more money
:48:35. > :48:37.into the hospitals, which was right. The Conservative Government has then
:48:38. > :48:41.taking 4.6 billion out of the social funding,
:48:42. > :48:45.which is an integral part of that, and on top of that,
:48:46. > :48:48.the change of demographic, which means that those
:48:49. > :48:50.people who need it, So what I think you need to do is,
:48:51. > :48:56.yes, look at the structural arrangements, but you do require
:48:57. > :48:59.some cash injections on that which goes beyond just
:49:00. > :49:01.raising the council tax. And we have just done surveys,
:49:02. > :49:05.with Change Britain, which ever side on the Brexit
:49:06. > :49:08.argument we are on, Leavers and Remainers,
:49:09. > :49:12.over about 70% of them are saying that the Chancellor should actually
:49:13. > :49:15.take about 100 million out of what we are going to save on our
:49:16. > :49:18.EU membership and put But that is still less
:49:19. > :49:23.than you would have promised But with the budget coming up,
:49:24. > :49:27.maybe the Chancellor has quite We hear about maybe
:49:28. > :49:31.an extra 12 billion or so. Well, I have got no idea
:49:32. > :49:36.what the Chancellor will do in the budget, but you have heard
:49:37. > :49:38.already from Sajid Javid that there will be more money
:49:39. > :49:41.going into social care, and, of course, we're putting more
:49:42. > :49:43.money, a lot more money But I think Gisela is
:49:44. > :49:46.right, this money... This is much more than
:49:47. > :49:48.a financial problem. This is a demographic problem
:49:49. > :49:51.and it's a cultural problem. And I think we have to think not
:49:52. > :49:54.just about the amount of money What we need to do to improve,
:49:55. > :49:58.as Stephen says, the join I went through this with my own
:49:59. > :50:02.father and many people will recognise this,
:50:03. > :50:04.there are problems with There are problems with getting
:50:05. > :50:08.people home with the necessary physical improvements
:50:09. > :50:11.to their own home, even if it is as limited as a grab
:50:12. > :50:13.rail in the bathroom. And, as the couple you saw
:50:14. > :50:17.in the film they demonstrate, it is also about making sure that
:50:18. > :50:21.carers back home are properly looked after, and that is why we need
:50:22. > :50:24.to put more money into carers' assessments and to making
:50:25. > :50:27.sure carers have breaks All of that has to happen
:50:28. > :50:30.and function is effectively Briefly, Stephen, how do
:50:31. > :50:34.you see this problem, in terms of what is widely seen
:50:35. > :50:37.as an imbalance, not enough funding going into social care
:50:38. > :50:39.and local authorities, and the whole question
:50:40. > :50:43.of the deficits in the NHS? Well, I think the solution
:50:44. > :50:47.is a combination, as Jeremy said, of more money to the health and care
:50:48. > :50:51.sectors at home. And, frankly, I'd say
:50:52. > :50:53.to both of my former colleagues in Parliament,
:50:54. > :50:56.not playing party politics, one of the interesting things
:50:57. > :50:59.about the health and care sector is that if you look through
:51:00. > :51:02.the party politics, the trends... You can't see the change
:51:03. > :51:06.of Government in the trends within health and social care,
:51:07. > :51:08.except when governments Now, at the moment,
:51:09. > :51:13.the budgets are unrealistically tight looking forward,
:51:14. > :51:15.and what we need to do is to create more resource,
:51:16. > :51:19.but address some of the policy questions that governments of both
:51:20. > :51:21.political complexions have One line response,
:51:22. > :51:28.if I can come to that. But you cannot say, yes,
:51:29. > :51:31.I give you the right to the NHS, but then take, as I say,
:51:32. > :51:33.4.6 billion out of You can't take it out and then
:51:34. > :51:38.pretend it's not happening. We are doing that but it's also
:51:39. > :51:46.about making sure that we run things If you take delayed discharges,
:51:47. > :51:54.that's what we should call them, that is not a uniform
:51:55. > :51:56.picture across the country. not bed-blocking, it's not the fault
:51:57. > :51:59.of the people and events, that is not a uniform
:52:00. > :52:01.picture across the country. In some areas, there are no
:52:02. > :52:03.delayed discharges at all, so this is not a uniform picture,
:52:04. > :52:06.and where we can do it better, that is the most
:52:07. > :52:08.important thing to do. For the moment, thank
:52:09. > :52:11.you all very much indeed. So to our other main
:52:12. > :52:13.talking point today. Jeremy Wright may have lost
:52:14. > :52:15.in the Supreme Court, but it was Labour who had trouble
:52:16. > :52:18.when the Government's Brexit Bill 52 of their MPs defied
:52:19. > :52:21.Jeremy Corbyn, to vote against it. The only Midlands rebel
:52:22. > :52:23.was Paul Farrelly, despite a majority of just 650
:52:24. > :52:25.in Newcastle-under-Lyme, where Down the line to Westminster,
:52:26. > :52:29.I asked him why he was I think people appreciate
:52:30. > :52:34.when they elect people where they stand, and I think people
:52:35. > :52:38.do appreciate that, even if they disagree,
:52:39. > :52:40.but where there are matters of principle involved that
:52:41. > :52:45.you stick to your guns. I listened to the electorate
:52:46. > :52:49.in the country, and I listen to the electorate in the potteries,
:52:50. > :52:52.and in my constituency, Newcastle-under-Lyme,
:52:53. > :52:55.and sometimes we may disagree. That's the nature of democracy
:52:56. > :52:57.but we've always got elections that can sort that out one
:52:58. > :53:01.way or another. There is, of course,
:53:02. > :53:03.though, the old adage that the electorate is always right,
:53:04. > :53:06.and thinking of your electorate there in Newcastle,
:53:07. > :53:10.you have a majority of just 650. When people talk about someone
:53:11. > :53:12.taking a brave decision, it's usually code for reckless
:53:13. > :53:17.or even foolish. Well, in the country, the decision
:53:18. > :53:26.was very narrow, 52% to 48%. And I would remind people
:53:27. > :53:29.that my next door neighbour Bill Cash from Stone spent 40 years
:53:30. > :53:35.supposedly disregarding the will of the people
:53:36. > :53:39.from the overwhelming vote to stay in the European Community
:53:40. > :53:42.in the 1970s. These votes are not
:53:43. > :53:47.the beginning or the end. This is part of a process,
:53:48. > :53:49.and, during that process, I and other people will be seeking
:53:50. > :53:52.to make the arguments and also seek the protections that we need
:53:53. > :53:55.for our potteries industry, for example, and indeed
:53:56. > :53:59.for people in general, for people travelling and working
:54:00. > :54:04.when all of this is decided, and we Your general hostility to Jeremy
:54:05. > :54:11.Corbyn's leadership is well-known. We've talked about it on this
:54:12. > :54:14.programme not long ago. Is that actually what is driving
:54:15. > :54:20.your defiance of his three I believe that our membership
:54:21. > :54:25.of the European Union is not just about prosperity but it's
:54:26. > :54:29.about more than that. It's about peace, cooperation
:54:30. > :54:32.and learning the right Britain needs to engage and not
:54:33. > :54:36.disengage with the continent. If I continue to ask questions,
:54:37. > :54:39.it's got nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn, three-line
:54:40. > :54:44.whip or otherwise. And the Government say they'll go
:54:45. > :54:47.back to the Commons, to overturn last week's defeat
:54:48. > :54:49.in the Lords. The former South Staffordshire MP,
:54:50. > :54:52.Patrick, now Lord, Cormack, was one of seven Conservative peers
:54:53. > :54:55.who defied Theresa May, over the rights of EU nationals
:54:56. > :55:00.living in the UK after Brexit. Having watched Paul Farrelly there,
:55:01. > :55:03.Gisela, what would you say to your fellow Labour backbencher,
:55:04. > :55:08.who seems, pretty, to coin I would say on the 23rd of June over
:55:09. > :55:14.17.5 million people voted to leave. That's more votes than any
:55:15. > :55:18.Government has been elected by. And I think the public at large now
:55:19. > :55:21.expect us to get the best deal out of this decision,
:55:22. > :55:25.and I would urge him to say, yes, If he feels so strongly,
:55:26. > :55:32.that is his decision, you know. And voting against the whip actually
:55:33. > :55:36.doesn't come as easily as sometimes people think,
:55:37. > :55:40.but all of these surveys we have done actually shows that,
:55:41. > :55:44.whether you were voting for Leave or Remain, people I do think we have
:55:45. > :55:47.already left or expect from all of us politicians to get
:55:48. > :55:51.the best deal. And conservatives, obviously,
:55:52. > :55:53.to some extent, will enjoy Labour's discomfort in this question,
:55:54. > :55:57.but isn't the reality of this that, as time goes on and the Brexit
:55:58. > :56:01.details start to emerge, that the pension is with
:56:02. > :56:04.the Remoaners, or the new, sort of, The battle lines are going to become
:56:05. > :56:13.more and more fraught with your party around the country
:56:14. > :56:15.and in Parliament. Well, I think, as a Conservative,
:56:16. > :56:17.you don't enjoy anyone's It brings back too
:56:18. > :56:20.many bad memories. But I think, on this issue,
:56:21. > :56:22.it's very, very simple, As far as I'm concerned,
:56:23. > :56:27.the British people on the 23rd of June last year made a very clear
:56:28. > :56:30.decision that they wanted And I can tell you as Attorney
:56:31. > :56:34.General, that you cannot leave the European Union in accordance
:56:35. > :56:37.with their international law possibilities without
:56:38. > :56:40.triggering Article 50. So, the decision to trigger Article
:56:41. > :56:43.50 is exactly the same decision that the public made in that
:56:44. > :56:47.referendum last year. So you can't say simultaneously,
:56:48. > :56:51.as people I think I've tried to, oh, I respect the outcome
:56:52. > :56:53.of the referendum, I accept the decision of the British people,
:56:54. > :56:56.and then not vote to trigger That is why almost every
:56:57. > :57:02.Conservative member of Parliament did that, and that is why,
:57:03. > :57:05.I think, Paul Farrelly was wrong But, as Gisela says,
:57:06. > :57:08.it's his choice. OK. And this is where you put your other
:57:09. > :57:12.hat on, the European Movement, I see this very differently
:57:13. > :57:20.from my two former colleagues. I think those who voted
:57:21. > :57:23.remain on the 23rd of June are in the classic position
:57:24. > :57:26.of an opposition party on the morrow We respect the electorate's
:57:27. > :57:29.decision, the Government has changed, the Government has
:57:30. > :57:31.a perfect mandate to follow through its policy,
:57:32. > :57:38.but when I was defeated in 1997 as a member of John Major's cabinet,
:57:39. > :57:40.nobody expected me then to turn round and say,
:57:41. > :57:44.all the policies I pursued It helped me when the Labour
:57:45. > :57:51.Government then adopted some of those policies later on to be
:57:52. > :57:54.able to say, actually, I think I think they were wrong
:57:55. > :57:59.to reverse them and I think And I think that John Major
:58:00. > :58:05.was right to say that the decision that was taken in the referendum
:58:06. > :58:08.would, if it was carried out, be a historic mistake,
:58:09. > :58:12.which is why I propose to continue to campaign to ensure
:58:13. > :58:14.that it doesn't happen. So that means that you are lining
:58:15. > :58:17.up with the other big Michael Heseltine is threatening
:58:18. > :58:22.to demand a binding vote Tony Blair says the country should
:58:23. > :58:26.rise up against Brexit. You are in line with
:58:27. > :58:28.those other people. I am also actually in line
:58:29. > :58:31.with the Prime Minister, who says that the decision will be
:58:32. > :58:33.taken at the end of Now, if the decision
:58:34. > :58:38.is to be taken then, it follows logically that it hasn't
:58:39. > :58:40.been taken yet. And that's what we should be
:58:41. > :58:43.campaigning about, that decision. Very briefly, final
:58:44. > :58:45.words from each of you. I think that the thing
:58:46. > :58:48.that is different here is that many of the same members
:58:49. > :58:50.of Parliament voted for an act of Parliament
:58:51. > :58:52.that gave this decision A referendum is different
:58:53. > :59:00.from the general election. Thanks to all, and particular thanks
:59:01. > :59:06.to you, Stephen Dorrell, So what other political developments
:59:07. > :59:10.have been making the news Our round-up in 60 Seconds
:59:11. > :59:13.is brought to us today Around 900 pupils at
:59:14. > :59:24.Birmingham's Shenley Academy had to stay at home after travellers
:59:25. > :59:26.moved onto the car park at their school before being evicted
:59:27. > :59:30.by the City Council. Protesters made a last-ditch
:59:31. > :59:32.attempt to persuade Birmingham City Council not to cut
:59:33. > :59:36.funds for the Supporting People project, which provides care
:59:37. > :59:39.for homeless and disabled people. New Stoke Central MP Gareth Snell
:59:40. > :59:43.was greeted at Westminster by party leader Jeremy Corbyn before entering
:59:44. > :59:45.the Commons where he was I will be faithful and bear true
:59:46. > :59:51.allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her
:59:52. > :59:53.heirs and successors, Meanwhile Stoke South MP Rob Flello
:59:54. > :59:58.is demanding an apology from the PM after she wrote a letter
:59:59. > :00:02.to voters during the recent by-election campaign,
:00:03. > :00:05.wrongly claiming he had voted And West Midlands Police
:00:06. > :00:12.Commissioner David Jamieson welcomed tougher penalties for drivers
:00:13. > :00:16.caught using mobiles. He was the Transport Minister
:00:17. > :00:19.who first made using a phone And another thing - on Friday came
:00:20. > :00:27.confirmation that the salary for the new Midlands Metro Mayor
:00:28. > :00:32.will be ?79,000 a year, after the combined authority
:00:33. > :00:34.accepted the recommendation It is less than the Police
:00:35. > :00:42.Commissioner gets, which... Many people would think
:00:43. > :00:44.the mayor is a bigger job. Patrick, I think it's a very bad
:00:45. > :00:47.idea for politicians It is not much better
:00:48. > :00:51.to comment on the pay of other politicians,
:00:52. > :00:52.so I'd rather not. All I will say to you is this,
:00:53. > :00:56.if Andy Street wins this election, he will earn every penny of that
:00:57. > :00:59.and more working for the people And you would no doubt say
:01:00. > :01:02.the same about Sion Simon. All the other parties
:01:03. > :01:05.would say the same thing. It is a serious job,
:01:06. > :01:09.and I think the individuals should That is why we handed over
:01:10. > :01:13.to an independent body to set it. OK.
:01:14. > :01:16.Let's leave it there. My thanks to Gisela Stuart
:01:17. > :01:19.and Jeremy Wright. Finally, from me, Philip Hammond
:01:20. > :01:22.isn't the only one talking On Tuesday, Coventry South's
:01:23. > :01:25.Labour MP, Jim Cunningham, opens a Westminster debate on regulating
:01:26. > :01:27.the sale of student loans, and the risks of further
:01:28. > :01:34.privatisation in higher education. Then on Wednesday, Budget Day,
:01:35. > :01:39.I'll report live from Westminster at 1.30 and 6.30, here
:01:40. > :01:44.on BBC One on Midlands Today. This, though, is where
:01:45. > :01:50.we rejoin Andrew Neil. need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:51. > :01:52.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:53. > :01:58.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:59. > :02:03.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:04. > :02:07.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:08. > :02:10.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:11. > :02:22.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:23. > :02:25.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:26. > :02:31.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:32. > :02:37.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:38. > :02:40.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:41. > :02:47.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:48. > :02:53.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:54. > :02:58.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:02:59. > :03:01.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:02. > :03:09.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:10. > :03:13.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:14. > :03:18.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:19. > :03:25.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:26. > :03:29.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:30. > :03:36.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:37. > :03:41.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:42. > :03:47.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:48. > :03:51.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:52. > :03:56.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:57. > :04:00.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:01. > :04:05.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:06. > :04:11.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:12. > :04:16.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:17. > :04:21.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:22. > :04:24.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:25. > :04:29.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:30. > :04:33.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:34. > :04:39.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:40. > :04:45.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:46. > :04:53.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:54. > :04:59.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:05:00. > :05:04.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:05. > :05:10.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:11. > :05:17.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:18. > :05:22.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:23. > :05:29.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:30. > :05:32.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:33. > :05:36.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:37. > :05:40.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:41. > :05:43.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:44. > :05:46.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:47. > :05:48.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:49. > :05:50.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:51. > :05:56.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:57. > :06:00.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:01. > :06:15.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:16. > :06:28.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:29. > :06:33.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:34. > :06:38.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:39. > :06:43.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:44. > :06:46.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:47. > :06:52.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:53. > :06:55.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:56. > :07:00.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:01. > :07:04.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:05. > :07:09.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:10. > :07:13.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:14. > :07:18.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:19. > :07:22.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:23. > :07:31.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:32. > :07:36.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:37. > :07:42.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:43. > :07:46.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:47. > :07:50.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:51. > :07:57.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:58. > :08:00.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:01. > :08:09.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:10. > :08:13.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:14. > :08:18.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:19. > :08:23.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:24. > :08:29.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:30. > :08:32.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:33. > :08:37.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:38. > :08:42.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:43. > :08:47.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:48. > :08:51.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:52. > :08:56.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:57. > :09:03.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:04. > :09:10.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:11. > :09:17.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:18. > :09:21.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:22. > :09:23.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:24. > :09:25.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:26. > :09:28.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:29. > :09:31."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:32. > :09:35.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:36. > :09:48.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:49. > :09:51.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:52. > :09:57."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:58. > :10:10.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:11. > :10:11.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:12. > :10:24.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:25. > :10:29.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:30. > :10:32.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:33. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:46.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:47. > :10:51.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:52. > :10:55.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:56. > :11:08.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:09. > :11:13.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:14. > :11:17.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:18. > :11:25.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:26. > :11:29.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:30. > :11:34.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:35. > :11:39.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:40. > :11:44.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:45. > :11:49.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:50. > :11:55.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:56. > :12:00.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:01. > :12:04.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:05. > :12:09.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:10. > :12:15.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:16. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:23.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:24. > :12:26.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:27. > :12:31.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:32. > :12:34.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:35. > :12:40.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:41. > :12:42.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:43. > :12:51.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:52. > :12:55.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:56. > :12:59.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:00. > :13:04.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:05. > :13:09.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:10. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:22.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:23. > :13:26.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:27. > :13:33.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:34. > :13:38.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:39. > :13:41.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:42. > :13:44.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:45. > :14:34.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:35. > :14:36.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
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