12/03/2017

:00:34. > :00:39.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:40. > :00:43.David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:44. > :00:46.ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:47. > :00:51.We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:52. > :00:53.Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:54. > :01:02.But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:01:03. > :01:04.And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:05. > :01:12.We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:13. > :01:15.And in the Midlands, we're talking rubbish today.

:01:16. > :01:18.Fly-tipping is getting worse and it's costing

:01:19. > :01:21.millions to clear it up. Time to get tough, perhaps?

:01:22. > :01:32.And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

:01:33. > :01:35.who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

:01:36. > :01:37.It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

:01:38. > :01:41.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

:01:42. > :01:49.abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

:01:50. > :01:51.BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

:01:52. > :01:54.So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

:01:55. > :01:57.perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:58. > :02:00.Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:02:01. > :02:02.getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

:02:03. > :02:05.Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

:02:06. > :02:07.earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:08. > :02:17.Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

:02:18. > :02:22.There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

:02:23. > :02:25.That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

:02:26. > :02:33.The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

:02:34. > :02:38.My job, and the job of the government, is to make

:02:39. > :02:48.the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

:02:49. > :02:55.There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:56. > :02:59.it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

:03:00. > :03:01.government means by a meaningful vote.

:03:02. > :03:07.I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:08. > :03:11.for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:12. > :03:14.think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:15. > :03:17.reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

:03:18. > :03:20.politics will be completely different by then. I take David

:03:21. > :03:26.Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:27. > :03:30.being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

:03:31. > :03:33.Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

:03:34. > :03:37.three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

:03:38. > :03:41.is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:42. > :03:45.floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:46. > :03:49.than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:50. > :03:54.would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:55. > :04:00.still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:04:01. > :04:03.of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:04. > :04:05.the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:06. > :04:09.for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:10. > :04:14.case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:15. > :04:18.EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:19. > :04:22.the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:23. > :04:27.countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:28. > :04:30.not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

:04:31. > :04:34.EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

:04:35. > :04:38.the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

:04:39. > :04:41.have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

:04:42. > :04:45.Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

:04:46. > :04:49.government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:50. > :04:53.deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

:04:54. > :04:56.Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

:04:57. > :05:02.the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

:05:03. > :05:06.back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:07. > :05:10.without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

:05:11. > :05:15.know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:16. > :05:20.one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

:05:21. > :05:25.Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:26. > :05:29.worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

:05:30. > :05:37.But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

:05:38. > :05:41.if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

:05:42. > :05:44.the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:45. > :05:48.is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

:05:49. > :05:56.two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

:05:57. > :06:00.vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

:06:01. > :06:06.if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

:06:07. > :06:10.government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

:06:11. > :06:13.government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

:06:14. > :06:19.it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

:06:20. > :06:23.we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

:06:24. > :06:26.referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

:06:27. > :06:29.government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

:06:30. > :06:33.changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

:06:34. > :06:38.fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

:06:39. > :06:41.deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

:06:42. > :06:45.The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

:06:46. > :06:51.deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

:06:52. > :06:56.a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

:06:57. > :06:58.holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

:06:59. > :07:01.So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

:07:02. > :07:05.That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

:07:06. > :07:07.to vote against their government on two key issues.

:07:08. > :07:11.Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

:07:12. > :07:13.partners within days, but there may be some

:07:14. > :07:15.wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

:07:16. > :07:19.Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

:07:20. > :07:21.The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

:07:22. > :07:29.But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:30. > :07:34.the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

:07:35. > :07:37.Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:38. > :07:42.a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

:07:43. > :07:46.But remember those numbers, they're important.

:07:47. > :07:50.On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

:07:51. > :07:52.been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

:07:53. > :07:57.I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

:07:58. > :08:00.on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

:08:01. > :08:04.And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

:08:05. > :08:11.the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

:08:12. > :08:17.When the government was criticised for reeling back

:08:18. > :08:20.from when and what it would offer a vote on.

:08:21. > :08:23.The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

:08:24. > :08:31.And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:32. > :08:34.of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

:08:35. > :08:38.The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

:08:39. > :08:42.Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:43. > :08:44.the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

:08:45. > :08:50.But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

:08:51. > :08:52.Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

:08:53. > :08:57.On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

:08:58. > :08:59.At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

:09:00. > :09:03.Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

:09:04. > :09:09.If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

:09:10. > :09:15.Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:16. > :09:22.So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

:09:23. > :09:24.What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

:09:25. > :09:27.I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:28. > :09:30.This building is a really important building.

:09:31. > :09:32.It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

:09:33. > :09:36.And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

:09:37. > :09:43.But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:44. > :09:49.vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

:09:50. > :09:51.It was already said about David Jones.

:09:52. > :09:53.It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

:09:54. > :09:58.I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

:09:59. > :10:00.through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:10:01. > :10:05.We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:06. > :10:09.One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:10. > :10:12.The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:13. > :10:19.A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:20. > :10:23.of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

:10:24. > :10:25.But that its position was unlikely to change.

:10:26. > :10:28.And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:29. > :10:35.That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

:10:36. > :10:38.round would look silly if they did, this time.

:10:39. > :10:41.It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

:10:42. > :10:44.about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:45. > :10:48.last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:49. > :10:52.There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

:10:53. > :10:54.Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:55. > :10:57.rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:58. > :11:00.The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

:11:01. > :11:02.that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

:11:03. > :11:07.If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

:11:08. > :11:09.Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

:11:10. > :11:12.it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

:11:13. > :11:16.have already indicated they won't block it again.

:11:17. > :11:18.It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:19. > :11:22.would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

:11:23. > :11:24.Her own deadline was the end of this month.

:11:25. > :11:31.But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

:11:32. > :11:34.We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

:11:35. > :11:36.She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:37. > :11:43.of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:44. > :11:48.Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:49. > :11:52.what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:53. > :11:57.vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:58. > :12:00.for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:12:01. > :12:07.Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:08. > :12:11.accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

:12:12. > :12:15.think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:16. > :12:19.that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:20. > :12:23.event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

:12:24. > :12:28.in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:29. > :12:31.means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:32. > :12:36.country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:37. > :12:39.get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:40. > :12:43.Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:44. > :12:50.want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

:12:51. > :12:55.They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

:12:56. > :13:01.he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:13:02. > :13:07.to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:08. > :13:11.on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:12. > :13:15.have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:16. > :13:19.will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:20. > :13:23.what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

:13:24. > :13:26.which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:27. > :13:33.said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

:13:34. > :13:37.don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:38. > :13:40.matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

:13:41. > :13:44.if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:45. > :13:50.there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:51. > :13:53.vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:54. > :13:59.what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

:14:00. > :14:02.Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:03. > :14:06.with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

:14:07. > :14:10.which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

:14:11. > :14:14.speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

:14:15. > :14:18.I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

:14:19. > :14:26.about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

:14:27. > :14:28.amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

:14:29. > :14:31.call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:32. > :14:33.agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:34. > :14:37.Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

:14:38. > :14:43.Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:44. > :14:47.deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:48. > :14:51.complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:52. > :14:56.you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:57. > :15:00.process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:15:01. > :15:03.from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:04. > :15:11.and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:12. > :15:14.the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:15. > :15:18.WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

:15:19. > :15:22.might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:23. > :15:25.government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:26. > :15:36.is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

:15:37. > :15:41.asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:42. > :15:46.ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

:15:47. > :15:50.jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

:15:51. > :15:57.and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:58. > :16:01.not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:16:02. > :16:07.have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

:16:08. > :16:12.WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

:16:13. > :16:18.what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:19. > :16:23.tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:24. > :16:27.either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:28. > :16:31.I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

:16:32. > :16:35.likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:36. > :16:39.clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

:16:40. > :16:42.has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:43. > :16:48.with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:49. > :16:54.Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:55. > :17:00.there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:17:01. > :17:07.not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:08. > :17:11.like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:12. > :17:16.but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:17. > :17:23.uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:24. > :17:27.country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:28. > :17:29.an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:30. > :17:36.frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:37. > :17:41.of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:42. > :17:44.voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:45. > :17:45.ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:46. > :17:58.and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:59. > :18:02.the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:18:03. > :18:06.complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:07. > :18:10.triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:11. > :18:15.not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:16. > :18:18.summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:19. > :18:22.give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:23. > :18:27.what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:28. > :18:32.under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:33. > :18:36.Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:37. > :18:40.in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:41. > :18:44.biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:45. > :18:49.in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:50. > :18:54.could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:55. > :18:57.approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:58. > :19:03.Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:19:04. > :19:07.to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:08. > :19:11.much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:12. > :19:15.come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:16. > :19:23.ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:24. > :19:26.different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:27. > :19:34.adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:35. > :19:40.Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:41. > :19:44.reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:45. > :19:48.performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:49. > :19:54.heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:55. > :20:00.am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:20:01. > :20:04.described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:05. > :20:11.around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:12. > :20:19.that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:20. > :20:25.voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:26. > :20:28.billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:29. > :20:33.do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:34. > :20:41.Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:42. > :20:46.commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:47. > :20:51.frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:52. > :20:56.accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:57. > :20:59.have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:21:00. > :21:06.of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:07. > :21:11.transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:12. > :21:16.divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:17. > :21:21.the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:22. > :21:28.We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:29. > :21:33.what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:34. > :21:36.about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:37. > :21:41.expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:42. > :21:47.government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:48. > :21:49.parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:50. > :21:55.election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:56. > :22:00.two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:22:01. > :22:04.better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:05. > :22:08.regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:09. > :22:15.would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:16. > :22:21.negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:22. > :22:27.this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:28. > :22:31.police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:32. > :22:37.seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:38. > :22:40.the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:41. > :22:47.aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:48. > :22:53.dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:54. > :22:58.whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:59. > :23:06.wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:23:07. > :23:12.in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:13. > :23:18.done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:19. > :23:25.about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:26. > :23:29.evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:30. > :23:35.making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:36. > :23:42.other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:43. > :23:46.result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:47. > :23:51.fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:52. > :23:57.probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:58. > :24:01.eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:24:02. > :24:03.is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:04. > :24:09.to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:10. > :24:13.of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:14. > :24:19.Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:20. > :24:23.whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:24. > :24:28.general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:29. > :24:31.The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:32. > :24:40.than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:41. > :24:43.unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:44. > :24:49.be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:50. > :24:55.more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:56. > :24:58.billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:59. > :25:02.Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:25:03. > :25:07.money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:08. > :25:13.crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:14. > :25:19.six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:20. > :25:23.the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:24. > :25:28.months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:29. > :25:32.people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:33. > :25:36.it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:37. > :25:41.happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:42. > :25:46.bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:47. > :25:51.cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:52. > :25:57.process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:58. > :26:01.fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:26:02. > :26:08.someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:09. > :26:13.It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:14. > :26:17.with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:18. > :26:22.market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:23. > :26:26.with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:27. > :26:35.a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:36. > :26:36.interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:37. > :26:40.than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:41. > :26:42.budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:43. > :26:49.affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:50. > :26:51.to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:52. > :26:53.in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:54. > :27:02.as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:27:03. > :27:04.more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:05. > :27:07.on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:08. > :27:10.a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:11. > :27:16.from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:17. > :27:20.and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:21. > :27:25.more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:26. > :27:31.with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:32. > :27:33.voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:34. > :27:35.in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:36. > :27:40.Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:41. > :27:43."no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:44. > :27:46.said the government One of the first things I did

:27:47. > :27:52.as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:53. > :27:56.and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:57. > :27:59.and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:28:00. > :28:01.at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:28:02. > :28:04.all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:05. > :28:09.be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:10. > :28:13.to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:14. > :28:15.there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:16. > :28:29.a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:30. > :28:33.the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:34. > :28:38.the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:39. > :28:41.commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:42. > :28:48.are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:49. > :28:53.what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:54. > :28:57.quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:58. > :29:00.decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:29:01. > :29:08.fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:09. > :29:11.will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:12. > :29:17.particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:18. > :29:22.general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:23. > :29:27.self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:28. > :29:32.are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:33. > :29:36.McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:37. > :29:40.parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:41. > :29:44.rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:45. > :29:49.people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:50. > :29:52.rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:53. > :29:57.economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:58. > :30:03.is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:30:04. > :30:08.not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:09. > :30:12.base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:13. > :30:19.is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:20. > :30:24.said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:25. > :30:29.politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:30. > :30:33.this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:34. > :30:38.you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:39. > :30:41.Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:42. > :30:45.tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:46. > :30:55.I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:56. > :30:59.people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:31:00. > :31:01.real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:31:02. > :31:05.they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:06. > :31:09.politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:10. > :31:10.turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:11. > :31:18.women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:19. > :31:23.the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:24. > :31:27.self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:28. > :31:32.tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:33. > :31:36.it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:37. > :31:43.know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:44. > :31:46.flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:47. > :31:50.enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:51. > :31:54.third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:55. > :31:57.like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:58. > :32:01.don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:32:02. > :32:06.And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:07. > :32:09.people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:10. > :32:13.people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:14. > :32:19.self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:20. > :32:23.tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:24. > :32:28.?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:29. > :32:32.If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:33. > :32:39.between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:40. > :32:43.employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:44. > :32:51.as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:52. > :32:55.the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:56. > :33:00.that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:33:01. > :33:04.We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:05. > :33:08.matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:09. > :33:12.self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:13. > :33:20.who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:21. > :33:23.side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:24. > :33:29.technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:30. > :33:33.taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:34. > :33:35.part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:36. > :33:40.models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:41. > :33:45.fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:46. > :33:47.tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:48. > :33:49.Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:50. > :33:53.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:54. > :33:58.we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:59. > :34:26.of Donald Trump's allegation Welcome to the Sunday

:34:27. > :34:30.Politics in the Midlands. We're talking rubbish today.

:34:31. > :34:32.Fly-tipping. It's a menace in town and country

:34:33. > :34:35.alike and it's getting worse. Our region's local councils spend

:34:36. > :34:37.millions clearing up the mess. Yes, it's criminal waste but what's

:34:38. > :34:40.to be done about it? Well, I will ask Shabana Mahmood,

:34:41. > :34:43.Labour MP for Birmingham Ladywood. She's a former Shadow

:34:44. > :34:45.Cabinet minister. And Gavin Williamson, Conservative

:34:46. > :34:47.MP for Staffordshire South who sits on Theresa May's Cabinet

:34:48. > :34:49.as the government's Chief Whip. And one of our top local business

:34:50. > :34:54.leaders will be with us too to explain what Philip Hammond's

:34:55. > :34:57.first and indeed last Spring Budget But we begin with Gavin's

:34:58. > :35:02.immediate predecessor as MP for South Staffordshire,

:35:03. > :35:05.Patrick - now Lord - Cormack, was one of 13

:35:06. > :35:08.Conservative peers who rebelled against the government

:35:09. > :35:11.on Tuesday night. They voted for an Amendment

:35:12. > :35:15.to the Brexit bill which would guarantee Parliament a more

:35:16. > :35:19.meaningful say over As ministers planned to overturn

:35:20. > :35:24.that in the Commons yet again, one former Worcestershire MP

:35:25. > :35:28.who chaired the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee for nine

:35:29. > :35:31.years, joined the growing chorus in support of an early

:35:32. > :35:33.general election. I personally think they should call

:35:34. > :35:36.a general election for a vote of confidence or whatever

:35:37. > :35:39.it is in the Commons. Call a general election and have it

:35:40. > :35:42.out in the well-known Democratic way of doing

:35:43. > :35:48.things, general election. Gavin, the government's stock

:35:49. > :35:54.position on this is well-known, it's just not going to happen,

:35:55. > :35:57.a general election, but as Chief Whip, you don't need me

:35:58. > :36:01.to tell you that there is a growing clamour on your side of the House

:36:02. > :36:04.of Commons for that early general election and a good opportunity

:36:05. > :36:08.for Labour at an historic low point. Well I think what people expect

:36:09. > :36:11.of the government is a government to act in the national interest

:36:12. > :36:13.and actually, a period of uncertainty where we are dealing

:36:14. > :36:17.with Brexit, actually most people want the government to be focused

:36:18. > :36:19.on dealing with that and frankly, actually, I don't think we can take

:36:20. > :36:23.the risk of Jeremy Corbyn running the country and Theresa May

:36:24. > :36:28.is a very, very competent, steady Prime Minister who is going

:36:29. > :36:31.to deliver for this country. But if you talk about taking a risk,

:36:32. > :36:35.is there not a very significant risk You have to be braced for another

:36:36. > :36:41.rebellion by your so-called Ramona Rebels on your side

:36:42. > :36:44.of the House, flexing their muscles. This attempt to play ping-pong again

:36:45. > :36:47.is full of risks because the Brexit timing may be thrown apart.

:36:48. > :36:51.You have to be braced for that. OK, so when the Prime Minister

:36:52. > :36:54.triggers Article 50, we're going to have two years

:36:55. > :36:57.in order to be able to do a deal That two years will pass

:36:58. > :37:03.incredibly quickly. I don't think this country can

:37:04. > :37:07.afford to take three, four months out in order

:37:08. > :37:10.to have a general election. The British people, people

:37:11. > :37:14.in the West Midlands, people in South Staffordshire,

:37:15. > :37:17.want us to be focused on delivering for Britain and getting

:37:18. > :37:18.the best possible deal. Are you not braced

:37:19. > :37:21.for a Commons revolt? I'm always braced for

:37:22. > :37:23.a Commons revolt, that's what Chief Whips are always ready

:37:24. > :37:28.and expecting the worst. But we're focused on delivering

:37:29. > :37:31.for Britain and focusing on what's best for our country,

:37:32. > :37:33.not internal party squabbles. Let's imagine, Shabana,

:37:34. > :37:36.just for fun, that the government does eventually table a motion of no

:37:37. > :37:40.confidence in itself, any Labour opposition worth its salt

:37:41. > :37:43.will have to vote in support Yes, if there's going to be an ask

:37:44. > :37:50.of the House of Commons to enable a general election

:37:51. > :37:53.because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act,

:37:54. > :37:56.then of course, we would support that

:37:57. > :37:58.and we would all go to the country. But I think the Prime Minister has

:37:59. > :38:00.effectively ruled out the early general election,

:38:01. > :38:03.not just because of what she said but because she said she's

:38:04. > :38:06.going to trigger Article 50 before And I think it's untenable,

:38:07. > :38:11.the idea that you've triggered Article 50,

:38:12. > :38:14.you've only got two years to do your deal with the European Union

:38:15. > :38:17.and you go off for a period of time So if she was going to seek

:38:18. > :38:22.a mandate, she should have done so before triggering Article 50

:38:23. > :38:24.and frankly, I'm surprised she didn't do it as soon

:38:25. > :38:27.as she was elected leader of the Conservative Party,

:38:28. > :38:29.that's what I was expecting. She didn't do it then,

:38:30. > :38:32.I don't think she can do it now until she has

:38:33. > :38:34.concluded the negotiations. We'll see what happens.

:38:35. > :38:38.We'll see. Well, for us here, it was a budget

:38:39. > :38:44.of two halves, the first ended with Philip Hammond fending off

:38:45. > :38:46.charges that increasing National Insurance contributions

:38:47. > :38:48.for millions of self-employed workers broke an election

:38:49. > :38:51.manifesto pledge. So, next day in Dudley,

:38:52. > :38:54.he was keen to set a new agenda, starting up our Midlands Engine,

:38:55. > :38:56.ignition on all cylinders, or could it yet backfire?

:38:57. > :38:59.Not surprisingly, Elizabeth Glinka First the Budget followed quickly

:39:00. > :39:09.by the Budget backlash. Next up, a trip to the Black Country

:39:10. > :39:13.for a visit to Dudley College. Where there was just about enough

:39:14. > :39:18.time to squeeze in some details We're wasting time, come on,

:39:19. > :39:22.we're wasting time. You will see more money

:39:23. > :39:25.being invested in road improvements You'll see money being

:39:26. > :39:30.invested in skills. We've got a Skills Challenge fund

:39:31. > :39:33.for the West Midlands. This is not a one-off,

:39:34. > :39:36.this is part of a programme to galvanise this economy,

:39:37. > :39:38.to allow it to achieve its full potential, to realise its full

:39:39. > :39:41.potential and make the greatest possible contribution

:39:42. > :39:43.to Britain's future. The government has pledged

:39:44. > :39:47.?20 million for the Midlands Skills Challenge, to help students

:39:48. > :39:49.like these get the training they ?392 million invested

:39:50. > :39:57.in the local growth fund Exciting times for the boss

:39:58. > :40:06.and perhaps one up It's absolutely wrong

:40:07. > :40:11.to think about the Midlands being in competition

:40:12. > :40:14.with the Northern powerhouse or indeed with London.

:40:15. > :40:17.Our competition for the future is Shanghai,

:40:18. > :40:19.its New York, its Frankfurt. By coming together in the way

:40:20. > :40:22.we are as the Midlands Engine, it enables us to talk about those

:40:23. > :40:26.things with one voice. As well as the Midlands Engine plan,

:40:27. > :40:29.the government also published The aim is to improve road and rail

:40:30. > :40:36.connections between the East and West Midlands and capitalise

:40:37. > :40:39.on the benefits of HS2. The hope is that this will help

:40:40. > :40:43.deliver a once-in-a-generation opportunity for long-term economic

:40:44. > :40:46.success. If the strategy delivers, it

:40:47. > :40:51.won't just be the PM who's laughing. And among the projects

:40:52. > :40:56.on a very long list, an apprenticeship academy

:40:57. > :41:00.at Warwick University, a business park in Newport,

:41:01. > :41:03.Shropshire, and an extension We're also joined today by

:41:04. > :41:09.Richard Butler who is the regional director of our biggest business

:41:10. > :41:12.organisation - the CBI. I note that you list skills,

:41:13. > :41:16.transport and achieving a successful Taking the Budget and the Engine

:41:17. > :41:22.strategy together, how many marks out of ten for Philip Hammond

:41:23. > :41:26.on those lists you have there? I think it's probably

:41:27. > :41:29.around an eight. I think the announcement on Thursday

:41:30. > :41:36.about the Midlands Engine addresses concerns that businesses have had.

:41:37. > :41:40.I think we have ?392 million to use effectively in the region that

:41:41. > :41:42.a week ago, we didn't have. On the question of business rate

:41:43. > :41:47.relief which have been the subject of protests right across our region

:41:48. > :41:50.and elsewhere, the findings of the Centre for Cities suggests

:41:51. > :41:53.that relief that the Chancellor has brought in, actually favours

:41:54. > :41:58.businesses in London rather than penalises those in Birmingham

:41:59. > :42:01.and other major cities. This is surely not exactly

:42:02. > :42:04.what you would have hoped for? That does appear to be the case that

:42:05. > :42:08.I think there's a general consensus that the business rate system needs

:42:09. > :42:11.a fundamental reform. It brings in ?25 billion a year

:42:12. > :42:15.so we do need to have a good look at that system rather than just

:42:16. > :42:17.tweaking it at the edges. The other controversial aspect

:42:18. > :42:21.of course is this increase in National Insurance contributions

:42:22. > :42:24.for certain self-employed people. What does that say in your view

:42:25. > :42:27.about the commitment encouragement for entrepreneurs,

:42:28. > :42:31.given the track record in this part of the country of very successful

:42:32. > :42:34.start-ups and small businesses I think we were surprised

:42:35. > :42:39.to see it in the Budget. There is the Taylor review

:42:40. > :42:42.that is ongoing, that will be reporting in the summer,

:42:43. > :42:44.that is actually covering I think there is a fundamental

:42:45. > :42:50.change in employment in the UK - more and more people

:42:51. > :42:54.are becoming self-employed. And if you are employed

:42:55. > :42:57.by a business, both yourself and your employer are making

:42:58. > :42:59.National Insurance contributions. But if you are self-employed,

:43:00. > :43:02.you don't get the employer element so there is a tax issue

:43:03. > :43:04.the government needs On this point about

:43:05. > :43:09.National Insurance, Gavin, the kindest word ministers seem

:43:10. > :43:11.to find in favour of it at the moment is that it's fair.

:43:12. > :43:15.Does that imply that that pledge in your Conservative

:43:16. > :43:16.manifesto was unfair? What we pledged and what we've

:43:17. > :43:18.already delivered on in terms of legislation that we introduced

:43:19. > :43:21.in the last session, was actually enshrining that

:43:22. > :43:24.manifesto commitment on Class 1 National Insurance contributions.

:43:25. > :43:27.What we're trying to do... But that's a technical,

:43:28. > :43:29.hair-splitting point. It inspires cynicism

:43:30. > :43:35.in the electorate. What we are quite clear

:43:36. > :43:38.in terms of doing, we've put that in legislation,

:43:39. > :43:40.we are delivering on that and what we've seen additional

:43:41. > :43:43.self-employment, we have seen additional benefits being added

:43:44. > :43:46.to those that would usually be available for those people

:43:47. > :43:48.who are self-employed and making sure that they get

:43:49. > :43:51.those extra benefits. My congratulations to Gavin

:43:52. > :43:54.for sticking to the line The tax lock said National Insurance

:43:55. > :44:01.that was promised at the general election, that was not always

:44:02. > :44:04.delivered in the legislation, that would be correct,

:44:05. > :44:06.but that's not what the public I think there is a case for reform

:44:07. > :44:11.of National Insurance, given the increase in the number

:44:12. > :44:14.of people who are self-employed, but I think that has to be done

:44:15. > :44:17.with a discussion around the benefits of the

:44:18. > :44:19.self-employed gets as well. The more benefits you

:44:20. > :44:21.get, I think the more But not in the context

:44:22. > :44:26.of a broken promise. Rapidly changing employment

:44:27. > :44:29.patterns, the whole economy Yes, there is ongoing

:44:30. > :44:33.change in arguably both the National Insurance and business

:44:34. > :44:35.rates processes are not fit for purpose for

:44:36. > :44:38.the 21st-century economy. What did we make of sir John Peace's

:44:39. > :44:41.very sort of ecumenical attitude towards the Northern powerhouse

:44:42. > :44:44.given that obviously ?23 million for roads here,

:44:45. > :44:49.for pinch points here with ?90 million for the powerhouse,

:44:50. > :44:52.that signals surely that you are still

:44:53. > :44:55.favouring the powerhouse? I think what you've seen

:44:56. > :44:58.is ?392 million put here for local enterprise and partnerships

:44:59. > :45:01.in the Midlands. That's on top of ?1.5 billion worth

:45:02. > :45:04.of extra money for the local growth fund that has been made available

:45:05. > :45:06.to the West Midlands and the Midlands in general.

:45:07. > :45:08.Convinced? We started this process I think

:45:09. > :45:11.a year, 18 months behind the Northern powerhouse

:45:12. > :45:13.so to a certain extent, I think the point that

:45:14. > :45:19.Sir John Peace made, this is not about competing

:45:20. > :45:21.with Manchester or Sheffield or Leeds, the West Midlands

:45:22. > :45:24.and Midlands as a whole has got It's important to get the right

:45:25. > :45:28.factors sorted to do that, rather than worrying what Macnhester

:45:29. > :45:31.or other places have got. I think there has been a generally

:45:32. > :45:34.favourable response? Put the budget and the strategy

:45:35. > :45:36.together, the government is actually doing the right thing by this part

:45:37. > :45:39.of the country? Actually, one of the problems I have

:45:40. > :45:42.with the government's approach is it's very piecemeal

:45:43. > :45:44.so they are doing huge amounts of devolution in different

:45:45. > :45:46.parts of the country, going at a different pace,

:45:47. > :45:49.that is bound to create the kind of competition that results

:45:50. > :45:51.in different settlements on transport when the need might be

:45:52. > :45:54.greater in one area, but the political will

:45:55. > :45:56.is in another space. So I think that's a real structural

:45:57. > :45:59.problem with the way Frankly, I don't think you can take

:46:00. > :46:05.aside the money that's been allocated to the Engine from what's

:46:06. > :46:07.happening to local government funding, so yes, that's 390

:46:08. > :46:10.odd million pounds coming to the Midlands Engine

:46:11. > :46:13.but Birmingham as a city has lost I don't thing you can divorce those

:46:14. > :46:21.two things from one another if you are looking at the things

:46:22. > :46:24.you need to do for our regions, Do people understand

:46:25. > :46:32.what this Engine is? That it stretches from the Welsh

:46:33. > :46:37.border right over to Lincolnshire? Do people really actually

:46:38. > :46:39.have a handle on it? Well, I think when we see

:46:40. > :46:42.the mayoral elections in the West Midlands Combined Authority,

:46:43. > :46:45.I think it will put another element You've got someone in Andy Street

:46:46. > :46:50.who is incredibly dynamic and... And you have other

:46:51. > :46:52.candidates as well. Who aren't as good,

:46:53. > :46:53.I should add, Patrick! You've got someone in Andy Street

:46:54. > :46:56.who's going to deliver for the West Midlands combined area

:46:57. > :46:59.and that is... Can we please have

:47:00. > :47:01.a moratorium on...? I feel duty bound to point out

:47:02. > :47:04.that there is a Labour candidate called Sean,

:47:05. > :47:06.but actually, one of the challenges that the Mayor...

:47:07. > :47:12.I'm not sure he can deliver though! The Mayor of the West Midlands

:47:13. > :47:16.Combined Authority area will have to create a sense of identity

:47:17. > :47:19.because you're right, the Midlands Engine covers such

:47:20. > :47:21.a vast area in our country and identity and local identities

:47:22. > :47:23.are becoming more important. That's going to be a big

:47:24. > :47:26.job for the Mayor. Final question, will this mayoral

:47:27. > :47:29.election inspire more of a sense of enthusiasm for local

:47:30. > :47:30.devolution, local enterprise? I think it's a challenge but I think

:47:31. > :47:34.it's a step in the right direction. I think three things are happening,

:47:35. > :47:37.I think you've got the West Midlands Combined Authority,

:47:38. > :47:39.the Midlands Mayor and the Midlands Engine and I think those

:47:40. > :47:41.three combined will make a real difference.

:47:42. > :47:44.Thank you very much indeed. Well, with local authorities under

:47:45. > :47:47.so much financial pressure, there must be better things for them

:47:48. > :47:50.to spend their money on, surely, than clearing up industrial

:47:51. > :47:53.quantities of rubbish? Fly-tipping is costing councils

:47:54. > :47:56.in our part of the country alone But are they authors

:47:57. > :48:01.of their own misfortunes to some extent by charging for certain

:48:02. > :48:03.kinds of waste? Our political reporter Emma Thomas

:48:04. > :48:06.has been hearing demands for tougher White goods on residential street

:48:07. > :48:17.corners and lorry loads of shredded paper and plastic in country lanes.

:48:18. > :48:21.Scenes such as these were reported to councils across England 100

:48:22. > :48:24.times an hour last year. In the West Midlands,

:48:25. > :48:28.fly-tipping has risen by 13% over The cost to councils

:48:29. > :48:35.of cleaning up cannabis, mattresses and dirty nappies reached

:48:36. > :48:38.?3 million in 2016. Birmingham City Council is one

:48:39. > :48:42.of four local authorities in the region which has defied

:48:43. > :48:46.the trend, seeing a reduction in fly-tipping for two consecutive

:48:47. > :48:49.years, after a dedicated team We look for anything, really,

:48:50. > :48:58.that leads us to where it That could be from local CCTV,

:48:59. > :49:03.from CCTV that stores and local businesses might have,

:49:04. > :49:06.as well as just actually But this just isn't acceptable,

:49:07. > :49:12.I mean, for people have to live next door to this,

:49:13. > :49:15.it's outrageous, it's terrible. We've got rats, we've got mice, it's

:49:16. > :49:20.just horrible to live like this. They are cleaning one day and then

:49:21. > :49:23.I looked out of my bedroom window, two days later and I

:49:24. > :49:30.thought, "Oh my God." You've only got to look at this,

:49:31. > :49:34.I mean, it's absolutely disgusting. If we removed the progress

:49:35. > :49:38.of Birmingham from the West Midlands statistics, we see a 29% increase

:49:39. > :49:49.in fly-tipping over Around a third of all incidents

:49:50. > :49:55.were recorded as a car load size, so why are people choosing to break

:49:56. > :49:58.the law rather than make In Staffordshire, we've had a levy

:49:59. > :50:03.placed on charging for some of the waste that was previously

:50:04. > :50:05.going free to the tips. So that's had an impact

:50:06. > :50:09.on forcing people to think about what their alternatives are,

:50:10. > :50:11.particularly if you are of low or limited income, then fly-tipping

:50:12. > :50:13.becomes an accepted alternative because if you can't afford

:50:14. > :50:15.to dispose of things properly, And we found the evidence abandoned

:50:16. > :50:21.outside the district's In November, Staffordshire County

:50:22. > :50:26.Council introduced charges for certain items at these tips,

:50:27. > :50:29.including the tip the other Things like just ?3 for a bag

:50:30. > :50:34.of rubble, ?4 for a tyre, but the authority said there is no

:50:35. > :50:37.evidence to suggest that charges increase fly-tipping.

:50:38. > :50:41.Local councils do have the power to issue penalties to fly-tippers

:50:42. > :50:45.if they can catch them. But with fines ranging

:50:46. > :50:48.from ?400 to ?5,000, some charities say the deterrent,

:50:49. > :50:51.unlike the mounting piles And Shabana, I'm going to put

:50:52. > :51:03.the question posed in that piece, are councils to some extent

:51:04. > :51:06.contributing to their own misfortunes

:51:07. > :51:08.by introducing those charges? Look, those charges have been very

:51:09. > :51:11.controversial and I think the councils have a point

:51:12. > :51:14.when they say that they are losing so much from their budgets

:51:15. > :51:17.as a result of government cuts, that they've got to make some tough

:51:18. > :51:20.choices and so that's what we've But I do sympathise very much

:51:21. > :51:26.with my own constituents. Honestly, fly-tipping in Birmingham

:51:27. > :51:28.and elsewhere drives me absolutely up the wall and I think the real

:51:29. > :51:32.problem is that the deterrent is not enough, as you saw in that film,

:51:33. > :51:35.the ?5,000 fines, even heavier fines are not doing enough to deter people

:51:36. > :51:39.from fly-tipping in the first place. Gavin, as a former county

:51:40. > :51:41.councillor yourself, you don't have to be Sherlock

:51:42. > :51:44.to work it out with those tyres just outside the site,

:51:45. > :51:48.you don't have to really strain your brain too hard to work

:51:49. > :51:50.out those charges have The real issue in terms

:51:51. > :51:56.of fly-tipping is industrial commercial fly-tipping which makes

:51:57. > :51:59.up two thirds of it and what we need to see,

:52:00. > :52:02.the average fine is about ?400, It's not actually, for people

:52:03. > :52:10.who are willing to operate outside the law, it's not worth...

:52:11. > :52:14.It's worth running the risk. We need to have fines of 10, 20, 30,

:52:15. > :52:17.?40,000, it is legally possible to make fines up to ?50,000

:52:18. > :52:20.and custodial sentences. We need to start seeing judges

:52:21. > :52:24.taking action and levying serious fines on people who are these

:52:25. > :52:27.environmental vandals, ruining our And threatening public health

:52:28. > :52:34.and the environment? Absolutely, but you also need

:52:35. > :52:37.the enforcement to be there, so Birmingham City Council has put

:52:38. > :52:39.money for enforcement. That's difficult, you have

:52:40. > :52:43.to ctch people at it. That's difficult, you have

:52:44. > :52:44.to catch people at it. Absolutely, you've got to build

:52:45. > :52:47.the case before the judges can actually levy the heavier fines.

:52:48. > :52:50.As a lawyer, you would know. Absolutely.

:52:51. > :52:52.It's very difficult. I've gone out and gone hunting among

:52:53. > :52:55.the rubbish for evidence to put before the Council

:52:56. > :52:58.to try to persuade them to take action in individual cases,

:52:59. > :53:00.but it takes time and resource and that is where we

:53:01. > :53:03.are really struggling. I think we could do with some

:53:04. > :53:06.radical rethinking of this and actually, if we knew

:53:07. > :53:08.that the courts were going to enforce proper and severe

:53:09. > :53:11.fines on these people, actually, letting councils keep

:53:12. > :53:14.the money from these much larger fines, giving them the resources

:53:15. > :53:16.to crack down on this absolute scourge of city

:53:17. > :53:19.centres, town centres There's plenty of evidence

:53:20. > :53:25.the government has given councils extra powers as we've been hearing

:53:26. > :53:29.but actually not many of them enough seem to be very enthusiastic

:53:30. > :53:32.about using those powers. Powers without resources are powers

:53:33. > :53:35.that are not going to be used. When resources have to be found,

:53:36. > :53:40.when you are having to close your libraries and other things

:53:41. > :53:42.in your city, finding money for rubbish is not necessarily

:53:43. > :53:45.going to be a high priority, Wouldn't it be better just to make

:53:46. > :53:50.it cheaper for people to get rid Lots of different things

:53:51. > :53:54.but enforcement, there's no excuse for dumping rubbish

:53:55. > :53:57.in the countryside or in our towns. Time now for our regular round-up

:53:58. > :54:03.of the rest of the political developments making the news

:54:04. > :54:05.here over the past week. 60 Seconds is brought to us

:54:06. > :54:11.today by Louisa Currie. A Shropshire couple say they've gone

:54:12. > :54:14.to the police over claims the Conservatives broke the law

:54:15. > :54:17.during the 2015 general election. Greg and Louise Kinsell volunteered

:54:18. > :54:21.on the party's battle bus and say their expenses

:54:22. > :54:23.were never declared. The Communist Party of Britain

:54:24. > :54:26.is to field a candidate in the West Midlands mayoral election.

:54:27. > :54:29.Former trade union official Graham Stevenson from

:54:30. > :54:32.Coventry has been selected. No regrets on Twitter

:54:33. > :54:35.from John Spellar after A big supporter of elected Mayors,

:54:36. > :54:42.the Warley MP described Heseltine as the main protagonist

:54:43. > :54:45.in this idiotic policy. Councillors in Coventry are trying

:54:46. > :54:48.to improve the city centre. They've introduced a public spaces

:54:49. > :54:51.protection order to deal Cyclists going too fast,

:54:52. > :54:57.with skateboarderss causing problems, making a lot of noise

:54:58. > :55:01.by residential properties But it's also about

:55:02. > :55:05.aggressive beggars. And Jaguar Land Rover boss

:55:06. > :55:08.Ralf Speth says he is concerned about the forthcoming

:55:09. > :55:10.Brexit negotiations. He wants assurances about free

:55:11. > :55:13.and fair trade in Europe Yes and bearing in mind

:55:14. > :55:18.the government's apparently relaxed attitude towards leaving Europe's

:55:19. > :55:24.single market, what would you see what would you say to Ralf Speth,

:55:25. > :55:27.the leader of certainly one of our most

:55:28. > :55:30.important companies who is very worried about not having access

:55:31. > :55:32.to his main markets? What we've seen is within

:55:33. > :55:37.the interest of not just British manufacturers but also European

:55:38. > :55:40.manufacturers, to get a deal, make sure supply chains are able

:55:41. > :55:43.to move in and out of Britain The British Government is totally

:55:44. > :55:47.committed to delivering on this and I think most European

:55:48. > :55:49.governments will see it is within their interest to make

:55:50. > :55:52.sure it happens as well. I think firstly I have to say

:55:53. > :56:00.if the government is so committed, then the Chancellor should have

:56:01. > :56:03.mentioned it in his Budget and I think that's going to send out

:56:04. > :56:06.some worries to business. But expect business to be putting

:56:07. > :56:09.in much more requests for what they want to see

:56:10. > :56:15.now that the government has said that coming out of the single market

:56:16. > :56:18.but getting access to it is what it's going to go

:56:19. > :56:21.for because that is going to be the cost along the supply chain go

:56:22. > :56:27.up and it's going to be a big Very briefly, were

:56:28. > :56:32.you surprised that so few mentions of Brexit

:56:33. > :56:37.in the Budget statement? He was getting on with actually make

:56:38. > :56:40.you to our public finances It favours, in Parliament, we do

:56:41. > :56:44.seem to discuss Brexit quite a lot. Brexit on the economy is kind

:56:45. > :56:48.of a big deal, though. My thanks to Shabana Mahmood

:56:49. > :56:50.and Gavin Williamson. Finally from me, as we head

:56:51. > :56:52.into another week, dominated by Brexit.

:56:53. > :56:55.Our guests next Sunday were on opposite sides

:56:56. > :56:59.during the referendum. The Conservative MP

:57:00. > :57:03.for Shrewsbury campaigned for Vote Leave and Labour MP

:57:04. > :57:05.for Stoke-on-Trent North, Now the government plans for new

:57:06. > :57:20.grammar schools. The Education Secretary

:57:21. > :57:21.Justine Greening was speaking to a conference

:57:22. > :57:23.of headteachers on Friday. They're normally a pretty polite

:57:24. > :57:26.bunch, but they didn't Broadcasters weren't

:57:27. > :57:32.allowed into the speech, but this was captured

:57:33. > :57:37.on a camera phone. And we have to recognise actually

:57:38. > :57:40.for grammars, in terms of disadvantaged children,

:57:41. > :57:43.that they have, they really do help them close

:57:44. > :57:46.the attainment gap. And at the same time

:57:47. > :57:48.we should recognise that ..That parents also want choice

:57:49. > :57:55.for their children and that those schools are often

:57:56. > :58:10.very oversubscribed. I suppose it is a rite of passage

:58:11. > :58:14.for and education secretaries to have this at a head teachers

:58:15. > :58:19.conference book the head are usually more polite. Isn't part of the

:58:20. > :58:25.problem, whether one is for or against the expansion of grammar

:58:26. > :58:28.schools, the government plans are complicated, you cannot sum them up

:58:29. > :58:33.in a sentence. The proof of that is they can still get away with denying

:58:34. > :58:36.they are expanding grammar schools. They will find an alternative

:58:37. > :58:40.formulation because it is not as simple as a brute creation of what

:58:41. > :58:46.we used to know is grammar schools with the absolute cut-off of the 11

:58:47. > :58:50.plus. I am surprised how easy they found it politically. We saw the

:58:51. > :58:55.clip of Justine Greening being jeered a little bit but in the grand

:58:56. > :58:58.scheme, compared to another government trying this idea a decade

:58:59. > :59:03.ago they have got away with it easily and I think what is happening

:59:04. > :59:07.is a perverse consequence of Brexit and the media attention on Brexit,

:59:08. > :59:12.the government of the day can just about get away with slightly more

:59:13. > :59:16.contentious domestic policies on the correct assumption we will be too

:59:17. > :59:20.busy investing our attention in Article 50 and two years of

:59:21. > :59:26.negotiations, WTO terms at everything we have been discussing.

:59:27. > :59:28.I wonder if after grammar schools there will be examples of

:59:29. > :59:33.contentious domestic policies Theresa May can slide in stock

:59:34. > :59:41.because Brexit sucks the life out, takes the attention away. You are a

:59:42. > :59:48.supporter. Broadly. Are you happy with the government approach? They

:59:49. > :59:52.need to have more gumption and stop being apologetic. It is a bazaar

:59:53. > :59:57.area of public policy where we judge the policy on grammar schools based

:59:58. > :00:01.on what it does for children whose parents are unemployed, living on

:00:02. > :00:06.sink estates in Liverpool. It is absurd, we don't judge any other

:00:07. > :00:10.policy like that. It is simple, not contentious, people who are not

:00:11. > :00:15.sure, ask them if they would apply to send their child there, six out

:00:16. > :00:20.of ten said they would. Parents want good schools for their children, we

:00:21. > :00:23.should have appropriate education and they should be straightforward,

:00:24. > :00:27.this is about the future of the economy and we need bright children

:00:28. > :00:33.to get education at the highest level, education for academically

:00:34. > :00:37.bright children. It is supposed to be a signature policy of the Theresa

:00:38. > :00:41.May administration that marks a government different from David

:00:42. > :00:42.Cameron's government who did not go down this road. The signature is

:00:43. > :00:52.pretty blurred, it is hard to read. It is. She is trying to address

:00:53. > :00:56.concerns about those who fail to get into these selective schools and

:00:57. > :01:00.tried to targeted in poorer areas and the rest of it. She will

:01:01. > :01:03.probably come across so many obstacles. It is not clear what form

:01:04. > :01:07.it will take in the end. It is really an example of a signature

:01:08. > :01:10.policy not fully thought through. I think it was one of her first

:01:11. > :01:14.announcements. It was. It surprised everybody. Surprised at the speed

:01:15. > :01:19.and pace at which they were planning to go. Ever since, there have been

:01:20. > :01:24.qualifications and hesitations en route with good cause, in my view. I

:01:25. > :01:29.disagree with Juliet that this is... We all want good schools but if you

:01:30. > :01:32.don't get in there and you end up in a less good school. They already do

:01:33. > :01:36.that. We have selection based on the income of parents getting into a

:01:37. > :01:42.good catchment area, based on the faith of the parents. That becomes

:01:43. > :01:44.very attainable! I might been too shot run christenings for these. --

:01:45. > :01:47.I have been. Now, you may remember this time last

:01:48. > :01:49.week we were talking about the extraordinary claims by US

:01:50. > :01:51.President Donald Trump, on Twitter of course,

:01:52. > :01:54.that Barack Obama had ordered And there was me thinking

:01:55. > :01:57.that wiretaps went out Is it legal for a sitting

:01:58. > :02:02.President to do so, he asked, concluding it was a "new low",

:02:03. > :02:11.and later comparing it to Watergate. Since then, the White House has been

:02:12. > :02:14.pressed to provide evidence for this It hasn't, but it seems it may have

:02:15. > :02:20.initially come from a report on a US website by the former Conservative

:02:21. > :02:23.MP Louise Mensch. She wrote that the FBI had been

:02:24. > :02:26.granted a warrant to intercept communications between Trump's

:02:27. > :02:33.campaign and Russia. Well, Louise Mensch joins

:02:34. > :02:46.us now from New York. Louise, you claimed in early

:02:47. > :02:49.November that the FBI had secured a court warrants to monitor

:02:50. > :02:55.communications between trump Tower in New York at two Russian banks.

:02:56. > :02:56.It's now four months later. Isn't it the case that nobody has proved the

:02:57. > :03:06.existence of this warrant? First of all, forgive me Andrew, one

:03:07. > :03:10.takes 1's life in one's hand when it is you but I have to correct your

:03:11. > :03:14.characterisation of my reporting. It is very important. I did not report

:03:15. > :03:19.that the FBI had a warrant to intercept anything or that Trump

:03:20. > :03:22.tower was any part of it. What I reported was that the FBI obtained a

:03:23. > :03:27.warrant is targeted on all communications between two Russian

:03:28. > :03:34.banks and were, therefore, allowed to examine US persons in the context

:03:35. > :03:37.of their investigation. What the Americans call legally incidental

:03:38. > :03:43.collection. I certainly didn't report that the warrant was able to

:03:44. > :03:47.intercept or that it had location basis, for example Trump tower. I

:03:48. > :03:52.just didn't report that. The reason that matters so much is that I now

:03:53. > :03:57.believe based on the President's reaction, there may well be a

:03:58. > :04:00.wiretap act Trump Tower. If so, Donald Trump has just tweeted out

:04:01. > :04:04.evidence in an ongoing criminal case that neither I nor anybody else

:04:05. > :04:08.reported. He is right about Watergate because he will have

:04:09. > :04:12.committed obstruction of justice directly from his Twitter account.

:04:13. > :04:18.Let me come back as thank you for clarifying. Let me come back to the

:04:19. > :04:23.question. -- and thank you. We have not yet got proof that this warrant

:04:24. > :04:27.exists, do we? No and we are most unlikely to get it because it would

:04:28. > :04:32.be a heinous crime for Donald Trump to reveal its existence. In America

:04:33. > :04:35.they call it a Glomar response. I can neither confirm nor deny. That

:04:36. > :04:40.is what all American officials will have to say legally. If you are

:04:41. > :04:43.looking for proof, you won't get it until and unless a court cases

:04:44. > :04:49.brought. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The BBC validated

:04:50. > :04:53.this two months after me in their reporting by the journalist Paul

:04:54. > :04:56.Wood. The Guardian, they also separately from their own sources

:04:57. > :05:00.validated the existence of the warrant. If you are in America, you

:05:01. > :05:04.would know that CNN and others are reporting that the investigation in

:05:05. > :05:08.ongoing. Let me come onto the wider point. You believe the Trump

:05:09. > :05:12.campaign including the president were complicit with the Russians

:05:13. > :05:16.during the 2016 election campaign to such an extent that Mr Trump should

:05:17. > :05:22.be impeached. What evidence did you have?

:05:23. > :05:28.That is an enormous amount of evidence. You could start with him

:05:29. > :05:30.saying, hey, Russia, if you are listening, please release all the

:05:31. > :05:35.Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's not evidence. I think it rather is,

:05:36. > :05:39.actually. Especially if you look at some of the evidence that exists on

:05:40. > :05:43.Twitter and elsewhere of people talking directly to his social media

:05:44. > :05:47.manager, Dan should be no and telling him to do that before it

:05:48. > :05:52.happened. There is a bit out there. The BBC itself reported that in

:05:53. > :05:56.April of last year, a six agency task force, not just the FBI, but

:05:57. > :06:00.the Treasury Department, was looking at this. I believe there is an

:06:01. > :06:03.enormous amount of evidence. And then there is the steel dossier

:06:04. > :06:11.which was included in an official report of the US intelligence

:06:12. > :06:14.committee. You've also ... Just to be clear, we don't have hard

:06:15. > :06:19.evidence yet whether this warrant exists. It may or may not. There is

:06:20. > :06:22.doubt about... There are claims about whether there is evidence

:06:23. > :06:27.about Mr Trump and the Russians. That is another matter. You claimed

:06:28. > :06:34.that President Putin had Andrew Breitbart murdered to pave the way

:06:35. > :06:38.for Steve Bannon to play a key role in the Trump administration. I

:06:39. > :06:42.haven't. You said that Steve Bannon is behind bomb threats to Jewish

:06:43. > :06:47.community centres. Aren't you in danger of just peddling wild

:06:48. > :06:51.conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I haven't. No matter how many times

:06:52. > :06:55.people say this, it's not going to be true -- first of all. I said in

:06:56. > :06:59.twitter I believe that to be the case about the murder of Andrew

:07:00. > :07:06.Breitbart. You believe President Putin murdered him. I didn't! You

:07:07. > :07:09.said I reported it, but I believed it. You put it on twitter that you

:07:10. > :07:15.believed it but you don't have a shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I

:07:16. > :07:19.know made assertions. What is the evidence that Mr Putin murdered

:07:20. > :07:25.Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe it. You may believe there are

:07:26. > :07:29.fairies at the bottom of your garden, it doesn't make it true. I

:07:30. > :07:38.may indeed. And if I say so, that's my belief. If I say I am reporting,

:07:39. > :07:44.as I did with the Fisa warrant exists, I have a basis in fact. They

:07:45. > :07:50.believe is just a belief. I know you are relatively new to journalism.

:07:51. > :07:54.Let me get the rules right. Andrew, jealousy is not your colour... If it

:07:55. > :07:58.is twitter, we don't believe it but if it is on your website, we should

:07:59. > :08:03.believe it? If I report something and I say this happened, then I am

:08:04. > :08:08.making an assertion. If I describe a belief, I am describing a belief.

:08:09. > :08:12.Subtlety may be a little difficult for you... No, no. If you want to be

:08:13. > :08:20.a journalist, beliefs have to be backed up with evidence. Really? Do

:08:21. > :08:23.you have a faith? It's not a matter of faith, maybe in your case, that

:08:24. > :08:29.President Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart. A belief and a report at

:08:30. > :08:33.two different things and no matter how often you say that they are the

:08:34. > :08:37.same, they will never be the same. You've said in today's Sunday Times

:08:38. > :08:46.here in London that you've turned into" a temporary superpower" where

:08:47. > :08:50.you "See things really clearly". Have you become delusional? No. I am

:08:51. > :08:57.describing a biological basis for ADHD, which I have. As any of your

:08:58. > :09:00.viewers who are doctors will know. It provides people with

:09:01. > :09:03.unfortunately a lot of scattered focus, they are very messy and

:09:04. > :09:07.absent-minded but when they are interested in things and they have

:09:08. > :09:11.ADHD they can have a condition which is hyper focus. You concentrate very

:09:12. > :09:16.hard on a given subject and you can see patterns and connections. That

:09:17. > :09:22.is biological. Thank you for explaining that. And for getting up

:09:23. > :09:26.early in New York. The first time ever I have interviewed a temporary

:09:27. > :09:29.superpower. Thank you. You are so lucky! You are so lucky! I don't

:09:30. > :09:34.think it's going to happen again. Please don't ask us to comment on

:09:35. > :09:39.that interview! I will not ask you, viewers will make up their own

:09:40. > :09:40.minds. Let's come back to be more mundane world of Article 50. Stop

:09:41. > :09:48.the killing! Will it get through at the

:09:49. > :09:51.government wanted it? Without the Lords amendment falling by the way

:09:52. > :09:56.that? I am sure the Lord will not try to ping-pong this back and

:09:57. > :09:59.forth. So we are at the end of this particular legislative phase. The

:10:00. > :10:03.fact that all three Brexit Cabinet ministers, number ten often don't

:10:04. > :10:06.like one of them going out on a broadcast interview on a Sunday,

:10:07. > :10:09.they've all been out and about. That suggests to me they are working on

:10:10. > :10:15.the assumption it will be triggered this week. This week. The

:10:16. > :10:19.negotiations will begin or at least the process begins. The negotiation

:10:20. > :10:23.process may be difficult, given all of the European elections. The Dutch

:10:24. > :10:27.this week. And then the French and maybe the Italians and certainly the

:10:28. > :10:31.Germans by the end of September, which is less predictable than it

:10:32. > :10:36.was. Given all that, what did you make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom

:10:37. > :10:41.on her part, that we may just end up crashing out in six months question

:10:42. > :10:47.-- fear on her part. It was not just that that we made that deliberately

:10:48. > :10:50.organising. I want us to get on with the deals.

:10:51. > :10:57.Everyone knows a good deal is the best option. Who knows what is going

:10:58. > :11:00.to be on the table when we finally go out? Fascinatingly, the demand

:11:01. > :11:06.for some money back, given the amount of money... Net gains and net

:11:07. > :11:13.costs in terms of us leaving for the EU. It is all to play for. That will

:11:14. > :11:17.be a possible early grounds for a confrontation between the UK and the

:11:18. > :11:22.EU. My understanding is that they expect to do a deal on reciprocal

:11:23. > :11:25.rights of EU nationals, EU nationals here, UK citizens there, quite

:11:26. > :11:30.quickly. They want to clear that up and that will be done. Then they

:11:31. > :11:33.will hit this problem that the EU will be saying you've got to agree

:11:34. > :11:38.the divorce Bill first before we talk about the free trade bill.

:11:39. > :11:42.David Davis saying quite clearly, no, they go together because of the

:11:43. > :11:47.size of the bill. It will be determined, in our part, by how good

:11:48. > :11:51.the access will be. The mutual recognition of EU residents' rights

:11:52. > :11:54.is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss is attracted to that subject but it

:11:55. > :11:59.is the easiest thing to deal with, as is free movement for tourists.

:12:00. > :12:01.Money is what will make it incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly

:12:02. > :12:06.quickly. I imagine the dominant story in the summer will be all

:12:07. > :12:09.about that. This was Anna Soubry's implication, members of the

:12:10. > :12:12.governors could strongly argue, things are so poisonous and so

:12:13. > :12:16.unpleasant at the moment, the dealers are advancing -- members of

:12:17. > :12:22.the government. Why not call it a day and go out on WTO terms while

:12:23. > :12:25.public opinion is still in that direction in that Eurosceptic

:12:26. > :12:29.direction? No buyers' remorse about last year's referendum. The longer

:12:30. > :12:32.they leave it, view more opportunity there is for some kind of public

:12:33. > :12:37.resistance and change of mind to take place. The longer believe it,

:12:38. > :12:41.the more people who voted for Brexit and people who voted Remain and

:12:42. > :12:45.think we didn't get world War three will start being quite angry with

:12:46. > :12:49.the EU for not agreeing a deal. In terms of the rights of EU nationals

:12:50. > :12:54.he and Brits abroad, by all accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed

:12:55. > :12:57.individually. Angela Merkel is the only person who has held that up.

:12:58. > :13:03.That will be dealt with in a matter of days. The chances of a deal being

:13:04. > :13:07.done is likely but in ten seconds... It would not be a bad bet to protect

:13:08. > :13:11.your on something not happening, you might get pretty good odds? The odds

:13:12. > :13:17.are going up that a deal doesn't happen. But, as I said earlier, the

:13:18. > :13:21.House of Commons will not endorse no deal. We are either in an early

:13:22. > :13:26.election or she has to go back again. Either way, you will need us!

:13:27. > :13:30.We will be back at noon tomorrow on BBC Two ahead of what looks like

:13:31. > :13:31.being a big week in politics. We will be back here same time, same

:13:32. > :13:34.place. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:35. > :14:39.it's the Sunday Politics. They're calling it an

:14:40. > :14:46.entertainment extravaganza audience fun and frolics

:14:47. > :14:51.and outrageous shenanigans. And I don't even know what

:14:52. > :14:55.those HONK words mean.