:00:37. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:44. > :00:47.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:48. > :00:53.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:54. > :00:56.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:57. > :01:02.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:03. > :01:05.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:06. > :01:08.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:09. > :01:10.And, in the Midlands, it's the Digby and Rigby show!
:01:11. > :01:13.Sir Peter Jones says Brexit is a disaster.
:01:14. > :01:18.Join him and him and me in half an hour.
:01:19. > :01:21.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:22. > :01:28.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:29. > :01:31.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:32. > :01:33.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:34. > :01:39.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:40. > :01:41.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:42. > :01:44.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:45. > :01:49.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:50. > :01:52.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:53. > :01:57.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:58. > :02:00.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:01. > :02:06.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:07. > :02:12.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:13. > :02:16.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:17. > :02:18.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:19. > :02:21.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:22. > :02:24.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:25. > :02:27.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:28. > :02:39.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:40. > :02:43.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:44. > :02:48.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:49. > :02:53.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:54. > :03:00.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:01. > :03:04.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:05. > :03:11.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:12. > :03:19.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:20. > :03:23.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:24. > :03:28.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:29. > :03:34.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:35. > :03:36.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:37. > :03:43.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:44. > :03:51.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:52. > :03:58.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:59. > :04:01.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:02. > :04:06.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:07. > :04:11.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:12. > :04:16.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:17. > :04:20.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:21. > :04:26.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:27. > :04:31.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:32. > :04:35.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:36. > :04:39.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:40. > :04:44.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:45. > :04:50.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:51. > :04:53.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:54. > :04:58.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:59. > :05:03.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:04. > :05:09.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:10. > :05:14.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:15. > :05:18.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:19. > :05:24.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:25. > :05:31.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:32. > :05:35.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:36. > :05:39.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:40. > :05:46.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:47. > :05:53.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:54. > :05:56.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:57. > :06:00.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:01. > :06:06.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:07. > :06:09.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:10. > :06:21.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:22. > :06:26.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:27. > :06:30.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:31. > :06:35.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:36. > :06:44.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:45. > :06:46.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:47. > :06:50.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:51. > :06:52.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:53. > :06:55.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:56. > :06:57.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:58. > :06:59.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:07:00. > :07:01.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:02. > :07:04.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:05. > :07:09.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:10. > :07:12.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:13. > :07:21.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:22. > :07:23.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:24. > :07:26.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:27. > :07:32.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:33. > :07:35.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:36. > :07:41.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:42. > :07:48.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:49. > :07:51.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:52. > :07:53."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:54. > :07:55.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:56. > :07:59.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:00. > :08:03.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:04. > :08:09.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:10. > :08:12.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:13. > :08:16.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:17. > :08:17.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:18. > :08:20.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:21. > :08:22.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:23. > :08:29.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:30. > :08:32.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:33. > :08:41.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:42. > :08:56.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:57. > :08:56.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:57. > :08:57.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:58. > :08:57.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:58. > :09:00.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:01. > :09:03.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:04. > :09:06.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:07. > :09:08.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:09. > :09:10.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:11. > :09:16.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:17. > :09:18.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:19. > :09:25.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:26. > :09:27.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:28. > :09:29.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:30. > :09:35.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:36. > :09:37.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:38. > :09:45.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:46. > :09:48.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:49. > :09:50.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:51. > :09:58.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:59. > :10:00.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:01. > :10:04.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:05. > :10:06.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:07. > :10:13.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:14. > :10:16.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:17. > :10:18.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:19. > :10:22.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:23. > :10:31.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:32. > :10:35.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:36. > :10:42.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:43. > :10:45.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:46. > :10:47.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:48. > :10:57.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:58. > :11:04.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:05. > :11:12.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:13. > :11:15.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:16. > :11:23.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:24. > :11:29.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:30. > :11:34.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:35. > :11:38.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:39. > :11:43.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:44. > :11:48.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:49. > :11:52.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:53. > :11:57.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:58. > :12:00.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:01. > :12:08.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:09. > :12:11.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:12. > :12:17.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:18. > :12:24.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:25. > :12:29.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:30. > :12:33.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:34. > :12:37.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:38. > :12:44.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:45. > :12:48.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:49. > :12:56.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:57. > :13:02.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:03. > :13:07.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:08. > :13:11.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:12. > :13:21.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:22. > :13:24.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:25. > :13:30.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:31. > :13:33.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:34. > :13:38.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:39. > :13:43.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:44. > :13:48.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:49. > :13:51.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:52. > :13:58.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:13:59. > :14:02.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:03. > :14:06.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:07. > :14:13.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:14. > :14:18.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:19. > :14:22.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:23. > :14:27.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:28. > :14:31.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:32. > :14:38.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:39. > :14:42.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:43. > :14:46.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:47. > :14:50.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:51. > :14:53.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:54. > :14:59.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:15:00. > :15:06.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:07. > :15:10.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:11. > :15:15.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:16. > :15:23.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:24. > :15:28.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:29. > :15:32.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:33. > :15:38.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:39. > :15:41.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:42. > :15:43.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:44. > :15:55.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:56. > :16:01.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:02. > :16:08.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:09. > :16:11.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:12. > :16:18.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:19. > :16:22.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:23. > :16:30.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:31. > :16:34.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:35. > :16:39.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:40. > :16:43.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:44. > :16:47.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:48. > :16:52.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:53. > :16:55.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:56. > :17:00.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:01. > :17:06.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:07. > :17:11.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:12. > :17:16.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:17. > :17:23.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:24. > :17:26.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:27. > :17:29.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:30. > :17:35.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:36. > :17:39.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:40. > :17:50.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:51. > :17:52.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:53. > :17:54.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:55. > :17:58.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:59. > :18:04.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:05. > :18:09.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:10. > :18:13.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:14. > :18:18.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:19. > :18:23.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:24. > :18:28.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:29. > :18:29.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:30. > :18:32.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:33. > :18:34.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:35. > :18:36.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:37. > :18:39.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:40. > :18:42.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:43. > :18:45.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:46. > :18:50.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:51. > :18:56.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:57. > :19:03.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:04. > :19:07.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:08. > :19:10.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:11. > :19:16.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:17. > :19:19.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:20. > :19:22.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:23. > :19:24.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:25. > :19:27.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:28. > :19:32.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:33. > :19:38.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:39. > :19:40.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:41. > :19:43.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:44. > :19:44.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:45. > :19:50.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:51. > :19:53.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:54. > :19:59.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:00. > :20:01.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:02. > :20:07.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:08. > :20:08.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:09. > :20:12.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:13. > :20:14.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:15. > :20:23.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:24. > :20:26.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:27. > :20:28.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:29. > :20:31.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:32. > :20:38.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:39. > :20:43.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:44. > :20:47.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:48. > :20:51.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:52. > :20:56.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:57. > :21:00.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:01. > :21:03.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:04. > :21:15.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:16. > :21:18.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:19. > :21:20.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:21. > :21:24.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:25. > :21:27.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:28. > :21:32.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:33. > :21:35.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:36. > :21:40.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:41. > :21:44.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:45. > :21:47.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:48. > :21:55.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:56. > :21:58.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:59. > :22:01.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:02. > :22:05.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:06. > :22:10.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:11. > :22:13.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:14. > :22:17.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:18. > :22:21.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:22. > :22:52.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:53. > :22:56.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:57. > :22:58.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:59. > :23:01.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:02. > :23:04.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:05. > :23:06.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:07. > :23:08.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:09. > :23:11.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:12. > :23:14.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:15. > :23:16.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:17. > :23:18.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:19. > :23:22.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:23. > :23:27.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:28. > :23:31.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:32. > :23:36.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:37. > :23:44.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:45. > :23:49.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:50. > :23:54.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:55. > :23:58.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:59. > :24:03.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:04. > :24:07.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:08. > :24:12.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:13. > :24:16.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:17. > :24:24.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:25. > :24:27.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:28. > :24:30.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:31. > :24:35.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:36. > :24:38.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:39. > :24:43.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:44. > :24:48.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:49. > :24:54.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:55. > :24:57.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:58. > :25:03.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:04. > :25:07.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:08. > :25:12.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:13. > :25:17.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:18. > :25:22.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:23. > :25:25.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:26. > :25:41.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:42. > :25:43.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:44. > :25:45.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:46. > :25:48.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:49. > :25:51.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:52. > :25:57.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:58. > :26:01.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:02. > :26:06.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:07. > :26:12.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:13. > :26:17.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:18. > :26:21.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:22. > :26:28.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:29. > :26:35.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:36. > :26:39.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:40. > :26:45.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:46. > :26:50.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:51. > :26:56.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:57. > :27:01.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:02. > :27:05.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:06. > :27:08.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:09. > :27:13.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:14. > :27:15.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:16. > :27:20.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:21. > :27:24.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:25. > :27:29.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:30. > :27:33.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:34. > :27:40.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:41. > :27:45.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:46. > :27:50.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:51. > :28:10.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:11. > :28:14.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:15. > :28:16.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:17. > :28:19.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:20. > :28:21.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:22. > :28:23.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:24. > :28:26.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:27. > :28:28.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:29. > :28:33.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:34. > :28:38.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:39. > :28:44.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:45. > :28:48.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:49. > :28:50.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:51. > :28:53.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:54. > :28:56.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:57. > :28:58.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:59. > :29:03.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:04. > :29:05.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:06. > :29:09.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:10. > :29:11.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:12. > :29:13.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:14. > :29:16.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:17. > :29:19.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:20. > :29:26.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:27. > :29:28.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:29. > :29:34.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:35. > :29:36.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:37. > :29:41.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:42. > :29:46.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:47. > :29:51.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:52. > :29:56.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:57. > :30:02.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:03. > :30:06.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:07. > :30:11.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:12. > :30:15.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:16. > :30:20.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:21. > :30:25.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:26. > :30:33.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:34. > :30:41.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:42. > :30:47.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:48. > :30:56.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:57. > :30:59.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:00. > :31:04.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:05. > :31:09.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:10. > :31:16.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:17. > :31:23.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:24. > :31:27.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:28. > :31:31.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:32. > :31:36.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:37. > :31:43.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:44. > :31:48.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:49. > :31:51.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:52. > :31:59.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:00. > :32:05.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:06. > :32:09.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:10. > :32:17.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:18. > :32:22.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:23. > :32:29.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:30. > :32:32.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:33. > :32:37.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:38. > :32:42.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:43. > :32:46.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:47. > :32:52.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:53. > :32:56.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:57. > :33:02.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:03. > :33:07.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:08. > :33:14.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:15. > :33:19.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:20. > :33:25.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:26. > :33:35.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:36. > :33:40.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:41. > :33:44.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:45. > :33:50.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:51. > :33:56.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:57. > :34:09.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:10. > :34:12.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:13. > :34:16.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:17. > :34:27.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:28. > :34:31.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:32. > :34:37.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:38. > :34:41.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:42. > :34:48.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:49. > :34:54.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:55. > :34:59.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:00. > :35:04.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:05. > :35:08.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:09. > :35:13.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:14. > :35:17.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:18. > :35:22.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:23. > :35:28.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:29. > :35:31.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:32. > :35:36.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:37. > :35:40.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:41. > :35:45.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:46. > :35:49.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:50. > :35:54.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:55. > :36:00.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:01. > :36:04.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:05. > :36:08.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:09. > :36:17.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:18. > :36:23.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:24. > :36:28.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:29. > :36:31.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:32. > :36:35.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:36. > :36:41.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:42. > :36:45.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:46. > :36:50.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:51. > :36:55.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:56. > :36:58.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:59. > :37:01.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:02. > :37:05.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:06. > :37:09.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:10. > :37:17.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:18. > :37:22.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:23. > :37:26.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:27. > :37:29.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:30. > :37:35.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:36. > :37:40.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:41. > :37:43.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:44. > :37:52.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:53. > :38:03.Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.
:38:04. > :38:06.And this week, it's the Digby and Rigby Show.
:38:07. > :38:09.Digby Jones tells us why he's convinced we'll make a success
:38:10. > :38:15.And Sir Peter Rigby, the head of a business empire.
:38:16. > :38:19.Does he still think Brexit will be a disaster?
:38:20. > :38:22.And how do our two MPs here today see this "momentous journey",
:38:23. > :38:27.Wendy Morton, Conservative MP for Aldridge-Brownhills.
:38:28. > :38:30.And Jack Dromey, Labour MP for Birmingham Erdington.
:38:31. > :38:34.Good to have you both here with us today.
:38:35. > :38:38.Just three hours before she signed that letter to Donald Tusk,
:38:39. > :38:40.Theresa May was in Birmingham, for what we were told
:38:41. > :38:43.was "a vote of confidence in the Midlands Engine,
:38:44. > :38:47.In theory, the biggest-ever trade forum staged jointly by the British
:38:48. > :38:51.and Qatari governments had nothing whatsoever to do with Article 50.
:38:52. > :38:54.In practice, a ?5 billion injection into Birmingham Airport,
:38:55. > :39:01.the NEC, education, healthcare, and cyber security projects
:39:02. > :39:03.clearly gave one of her Cabinet colleagues grounds for hope,
:39:04. > :39:06.that the world won't end in two years' time.
:39:07. > :39:09.Britain is open for international trade.
:39:10. > :39:13.In fact, we are a champion of free trade.
:39:14. > :39:16.When you look at the world as it is developing now,
:39:17. > :39:18.90% of global growth is actually being generated
:39:19. > :39:22.The fact that they have brought the biggest ever inwards investment
:39:23. > :39:26.delegation in our history to Birmingham is a real testament
:39:27. > :39:30.to the opportunities and to the transformation
:39:31. > :39:39.It certainly felt like a very sincere demonstration of confidence
:39:40. > :39:43.in post-Brexit Britain, and the Midlands in particular.
:39:44. > :39:46.Inward investment into Birmingham and Britain is very welcome,
:39:47. > :39:53.But very big problems lie ahead for us at the next stages.
:39:54. > :40:03.Crucially, it's about the deal that we now strike.
:40:04. > :40:06.I was strongly for Remain, but we've got to try and make Brexit
:40:07. > :40:11.That means certain fundamentals, one of which is access to the single
:40:12. > :40:14.Because it is our single biggest market.
:40:15. > :40:16.If we lose that then, for example, the Jaguar
:40:17. > :40:20.workers in my constituency, currently producing cars,
:40:21. > :40:21.exporting into Europe, will see tariff barriers,
:40:22. > :40:26.So there are key issues that we have got a crack at the next stages.
:40:27. > :40:29.And that is the very point that Doctor Ralf Speth, the boss of JLR,
:40:30. > :40:34.After all, yes, we have a trade surplus with China uniquely in this
:40:35. > :40:37.region, and JLR is a big part of that story.
:40:38. > :40:39.But he's worried about access to his biggest markets,
:40:40. > :40:47.Just going back to your point about the Qatar business visit,
:40:48. > :40:49.I think that really shows confidence in the West Midlands and
:40:50. > :40:57.Whilst I did vote remain, it was an unbalanced decision.
:40:58. > :41:01.I take the view now that it is for us as a region and the country to go
:41:02. > :41:04.out and get the best deal for the UK.
:41:05. > :41:08.On Ralf Speth's point about access to Europe for the JLR.
:41:09. > :41:11.Absolutely, and it's not just about JLR, it's about the businesses
:41:12. > :41:15.I come from a business background myself, so I know
:41:16. > :41:19.But there are businesses in my constituency as well,
:41:20. > :41:23.so I will be wanting to make sure we get the best for those as well.
:41:24. > :41:25.I think this is an opportunity that we must go out
:41:26. > :41:33.In this age of ultra-fast fibre-optic broadband,
:41:34. > :41:39.there was something very quaint about the way Britain's Ambassador
:41:40. > :41:43.to the EU, the increasingly famous son of Leamington Spa,
:41:44. > :41:45.Sir Tim Barrow, hand-delivered that letter from Theresa May
:41:46. > :41:47.to Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council.
:41:48. > :41:52.So now we can expect two years' of talk about roller-coaster rides,
:41:53. > :41:56.I wonder if our political reporter, Sian Grzeszczyk,
:41:57. > :42:03.However you describe this, there's no turning back now.
:42:04. > :42:05.And as journeys go, some are straightforward.
:42:06. > :42:13.Others, well, are a bit of a rollercoaster.
:42:14. > :42:16.And now that Brexit has been triggered, the journey truly begins.
:42:17. > :42:17.Brexiteers and Remainers are all speculating
:42:18. > :42:21.about the ups and downs on the track ahead.
:42:22. > :42:24.But with so many unknowns, no-one can tell for certain just how
:42:25. > :42:29.things will look when we do get off the EU ride in two years' time.
:42:30. > :42:31.The only way is up, according to the owner
:42:32. > :42:35.of Drayton Manor theme park - he voted out.
:42:36. > :42:37.So what does he hope will be the benefits for his business?
:42:38. > :42:40.Cutting out red tape, if we can, would be wonderful.
:42:41. > :42:48.The tourism industry is huge, it's the fourth largest industry
:42:49. > :42:53.It's very important for us to be able to get on with our jobs,
:42:54. > :42:56.instead of having to continually look at health and safety
:42:57. > :43:02.that is ludicrous because it's come from the EU.
:43:03. > :43:04.There are concerns about the timescale -
:43:05. > :43:08.is two years long enough to negotiate a good enough deal
:43:09. > :43:13.and to dodge things like expensive tarriffs?
:43:14. > :43:16.I voted to stay in, but now it's happened,
:43:17. > :43:19.I just think we've got to make the most of it.
:43:20. > :43:23.The country's not going to fall to bits, I don't think.
:43:24. > :43:25.Over in Aston, Jason Wouhra's cash and carry business
:43:26. > :43:27.is already losing thousands because of the weakened pound.
:43:28. > :43:29.He thinks there are a number of risks
:43:30. > :43:34.if the UK doesn't get a good enough deal.
:43:35. > :43:39.The risks are it becomes a lot more difficult to export,
:43:40. > :43:41.a bigger paper trail, more customs, more tariffs,
:43:42. > :43:45.And that will make things more and more difficult.
:43:46. > :43:48.I think that we will find if the right deal isn't struck,
:43:49. > :43:50.UK businesses will become a little bit more insular and probably
:43:51. > :43:55.At the moment, with our economy, we need to export
:43:56. > :44:00.It is a plan for a new, deep and special partnership between
:44:01. > :44:04.And as Prime Minister triggered Article 50,
:44:05. > :44:07.this Midlands Brexiteer had plenty to say.
:44:08. > :44:11.We were promised death of the first-born by Friday,
:44:12. > :44:14.we were promised a plague of frogs and locusts and all this.
:44:15. > :44:18.The fall in sterling has really helped because, of course,
:44:19. > :44:21.what it's done is it's made how exports cheaper around the world.
:44:22. > :44:29.And it actually made sure that we've reached out more
:44:30. > :44:34.to the rest of the world, and that's no bad thing.
:44:35. > :44:36.Whilst many Brexiteers are probably celebrating with a pint,
:44:37. > :44:46.Remainers are concerned about things spinning out of control.
:44:47. > :44:47.Certainly no joyride, these negotiations.
:44:48. > :44:51.And also here with us here today, Sir Peter Rigby, who has described
:44:52. > :44:55.He's the Founder, Chief Executive and Chairman of the Rigby Group,
:44:56. > :45:00.which includes aviation, financial services,
:45:01. > :45:03.property and information technology businesses.
:45:04. > :45:06.You saw there what Digby Jones said - no plague of locusts.
:45:07. > :45:14.Well, I was very much a Remainer, Patrick, driven mostly by the fact
:45:15. > :45:17.that I spent many years creating a European business.
:45:18. > :45:22.20 countries, thousands of people in the technology field.
:45:23. > :45:24.The thought of losing that market position was of great concern.
:45:25. > :45:27.It's a market, at the end of the day, worth 500 billion.
:45:28. > :45:36.Providing we haven't lost the relationship with that,
:45:37. > :45:39.and that is the key negotiating stance for me, then I think
:45:40. > :45:44.Business is very pragmatic, and I am too.
:45:45. > :45:47.The desire to remain is left behind, and we are now
:45:48. > :45:52.And indeed you do speak with the experience of wanting that
:45:53. > :45:55.ride righty of business interests that you mentioned there.
:45:56. > :45:58.Liam Fox, when I was talking to him that at that forum,
:45:59. > :46:01.also said to me that 90% of the global growth at the moment
:46:02. > :46:05.So there is plenty left out there of opportunities
:46:06. > :46:12.There is, but it's going to take an awful lot of Australias
:46:13. > :46:15.and New Zealands to make up for a 500 billion
:46:16. > :46:22.I was with Liam Fox ten days ago, in Vietnam, where he came
:46:23. > :46:26.to open my new global call centre in Vietnam.
:46:27. > :46:29.Of course, we are trying hard to entice nations like Vietnam,
:46:30. > :46:34.but they do 4 billion only with us in trade.
:46:35. > :46:37.So we certainly should be working these markets,
:46:38. > :46:45.At the end of the day, we've also got to protect our
:46:46. > :46:49.When governments go into difficult negotiations, you will often hear
:46:50. > :46:51.ministers sort of talking expectations down a little bit
:46:52. > :46:54.in the hope that, in the end, they can pull the rabbit out
:46:55. > :46:57.This time, expectations seem to be managed upwards,
:46:58. > :47:03.Does that surprise you, the way it's being handled?
:47:04. > :47:14.But free and open access to markets are the objective?
:47:15. > :47:17.Yes, I don't think it's quite as easy as that.
:47:18. > :47:20.I mean, we've got to gear up and step up and invest to do
:47:21. > :47:26.Therefore our businesses here need protection, they need support,
:47:27. > :47:29.they need financial support as well, and encouragement to do this.
:47:30. > :47:38.The incentives that I'm offered to redecorate one of my Paris
:47:39. > :47:41.operations to northern France in terms of salary support,
:47:42. > :47:50.in terms of office accommodation and so on are enormous.
:47:51. > :47:53.Could you put a cost on the likely cost of Brexit?
:47:54. > :47:58.A number on it, as far as your businesses are concerned?
:47:59. > :48:03.No, we are positive about this, let me make that quite clear.
:48:04. > :48:06.We have just recorded our best ever year's trading in 40 years.
:48:07. > :48:14.Having said that, in technology, I know that many decisions have been
:48:15. > :48:26.shelved, many long-term investments have been shelved because what
:48:27. > :48:30.And indeed uncertainty in spades is what this process over
:48:31. > :48:33.the next how many years, practically, is going to bring us.
:48:34. > :48:37.So what would you say to reassure people?
:48:38. > :48:39.I take a very pragmatic view, like Sir Peter.
:48:40. > :48:41.There will be challenges along the way.
:48:42. > :48:44.But, at the same time, we have got to go out
:48:45. > :48:52.We've got to go out and seek out not just to further develop
:48:53. > :48:54.relationships with had with those EU partners that we had
:48:55. > :48:57.when we were within the EU, because they will want to trade
:48:58. > :49:02.But also we must use is as an opportunity to look
:49:03. > :49:04.beyond Europe and look for new markets.
:49:05. > :49:06.Let me point out to you one thing that struck me
:49:07. > :49:09.in the Prime Minister's statement the other day, that worker
:49:10. > :49:11.protection is one of the issues that Labour is expressing,
:49:12. > :49:16.Theresa May said that she gets that, and the Government may in certain
:49:17. > :49:20.areas seek to strengthen worker protection outside the EU.
:49:21. > :49:23.That's an important political reaching out to working people up
:49:24. > :49:25.in your constituency, I suggest.
:49:26. > :49:32.You'll forgive me if, from bitter experience -
:49:33. > :49:36.I took a case to the European court of justice to win protection under
:49:37. > :49:38.the transfer of undertakings for 6 million public servants,
:49:39. > :49:47.The Brexiteers are led by those who for years have argued
:49:48. > :49:50.against what they called red tape but I call workers' writes.
:49:51. > :49:54.Indeed, in the piece just now, to hear health and safety
:49:55. > :49:59.Health and safety is the difference between people living and dying,
:50:00. > :50:04.Somebody would say that is a reason why we should have
:50:05. > :50:06.There are differences between what we would describe
:50:07. > :50:09.as red tape and what you would describe as workers' rights.
:50:10. > :50:12.The repeal Bill is going to bring those rights that are currently
:50:13. > :50:14.in Europe to the UK, so then we will have our
:50:15. > :50:16.own sovereign power, we can look at those.
:50:17. > :50:22.I will wait and see because I'm quite certain
:50:23. > :50:25.that the Prime Minister really does get this piece.
:50:26. > :50:28.At that Drayton Manor theme park, I was interested to discover
:50:29. > :50:30.that there were actually 23 different nationalities working
:50:31. > :50:37.This raises the whole question of recruitment and access,
:50:38. > :50:39.movement of people, which is also part of this big negotiation.
:50:40. > :50:42.One of our business interests is hotels.
:50:43. > :50:50.I would say that 70% of the staff are EU nationals.
:50:51. > :50:53.They are very good at what they do, they have a real work ethic,
:50:54. > :50:57.To lose those people would massively damage the leisure industry,
:50:58. > :51:08.So somehow, we certainly got to keep those people we have here.
:51:09. > :51:10.There were 700,000 people working in hospitality in this country
:51:11. > :51:25.I was talking to a major employer, one of our vice chancellors
:51:26. > :51:27.here in Birmingham, in the last 48 hours.
:51:28. > :51:28.They already saying that they are having
:51:29. > :51:30.real problems retaining, key people with key skills
:51:31. > :51:32.who are going back home because they don't see
:51:33. > :51:37.Where do you see this country in, let's say, five years' time?
:51:38. > :51:41.Five years is a long time, isn't it, in this day and age.
:51:42. > :51:43.As far as we're concerned, we will continue to invest
:51:44. > :51:45.and look after our businesses and develop them.
:51:46. > :51:48.I think the nature of the business will change.
:51:49. > :51:51.For example, we are investing heavily in R
:51:52. > :51:52.We are interested in cognitive computing,
:51:53. > :52:00.In five years' time, that will be absolutely across the piece,
:52:01. > :52:03.and that will bring its own problems with it too, by the way.
:52:04. > :52:07.In particular, thanks to you for being with us today, Sir Peter.
:52:08. > :52:10."A cabal of right-wing Labour MPs from the West Midlands."
:52:11. > :52:15.That's the scathing description by the Unite union leader,
:52:16. > :52:18.Len McCluskey, of what he sees as smear tactics,
:52:19. > :52:22.designed to undermine his re-election campaign.
:52:23. > :52:25.It follows a call by John Spellar, Labour MP for Warley,
:52:26. > :52:27.for an investigation into some of the union branches
:52:28. > :52:31.As Nick Watson explains, it all revives memories
:52:32. > :52:36.of the bitter battles which tore Labour apart in the '80s.
:52:37. > :52:39.After weeks of campaigning, voting is now underway.
:52:40. > :52:41.But this election isn't just about the future of Unite,
:52:42. > :52:43.it's also about the future of the Labour party.
:52:44. > :52:46.Len McCluskey is the left-wing leader seeking re-election -
:52:47. > :52:55.Gerard Coyne is supported by so-called moderate Labour MPs -
:52:56. > :52:57.many of them from the West Midlands -
:52:58. > :53:01.who want to see the back of Mr McCluskey and Mr Corbyn.
:53:02. > :53:04.It's time for our union to be focused on matters that
:53:05. > :53:05.actually our members are concerned about.
:53:06. > :53:08.That's about protecting them at work, improving their pay
:53:09. > :53:12.and conditions, rather than messing around in Westminster politics.
:53:13. > :53:15.Labour's deputy leader, West Bromwich East MP Tom Watson
:53:16. > :53:18.recently alleged there was a plot involving Unite and the Corbyn
:53:19. > :53:22.supporting Momentum group to take control of Labour.
:53:23. > :53:32.Now Warley MP John Spellar has entered the fray.
:53:33. > :53:34.He's reported Unite to the trade union certification officer,
:53:35. > :53:36.suggesting irregularities in some of the branches declaring
:53:37. > :53:40.He won his battle is to expel the hard left from the Labour Party
:53:41. > :53:43.in the 1980s, but does he think he'll be successful this time?
:53:44. > :53:49.It's only when we had won that battle inside the Labour Party that,
:53:50. > :53:51.in 1997, we won the confidence of the British people
:53:52. > :53:58.On a visit to the region on Friday to back BMW workers,
:53:59. > :54:05.There is a cabal of West Midlands MPs who are attempting to abuse
:54:06. > :54:08.the democracy of Unite, and they are trying
:54:09. > :54:11.to turn our election into a completely separate election,
:54:12. > :54:15.an election to do with the Labour Party.
:54:16. > :54:18.These individuals are skilled in the dark arts.
:54:19. > :54:20.It's in their DNA, they've been doing it for years.
:54:21. > :54:26.The result of the Unite election will be announced later this month.
:54:27. > :54:29.For Labour, it could be a defining moment every bit as important
:54:30. > :54:37.And there's a third candidate in this Unite leadership election.
:54:38. > :54:43.And Mr McCluskey also confirmed Tom Watson
:54:44. > :54:46.and Jack Dromey were in that Right Wing West Midlands
:54:47. > :54:51."Labour cabal", which he branded "shameful and disgraceful."
:54:52. > :54:53.It's all getting a bit personal, isn't it?
:54:54. > :54:56.You've written a column in the Birmingham Mail
:54:57. > :54:58.in which you have a real go at Len McCluskey, saying
:54:59. > :55:04.that he is seeking to take control of the Labour Party, dooming the
:55:05. > :55:13.When he describes me as being part of a
:55:14. > :55:15.right-wing cabal, I was born on the left
:55:16. > :55:18.But the more important thing is this.
:55:19. > :55:20.Unions have never been more important than they are now.
:55:21. > :55:23.What we need is strong leadership which focuses on why
:55:24. > :55:26.a union exists, and that its members in the world of work.
:55:27. > :55:28.Gerard is one of the most outstanding trade
:55:29. > :55:32.unionists that I have ever worked with.
:55:33. > :55:35.I believe he is capable of leading a renaissance of trade
:55:36. > :55:43.For me, as an old union man who came through
:55:44. > :55:49.the ranks of the Transport and General and then ultimately the
:55:50. > :55:51.deputy of Unite, I want to see the union succeed.
:55:52. > :55:54.Len's problem is he is focused on control.
:55:55. > :55:55.Control of the union and control
:55:56. > :55:59.For me, it is about the union, not the Labour Party.
:56:00. > :56:01.But Len, for too long, has focused on the
:56:02. > :56:07.Labour Party, the Labour Party, the Labour Party.
:56:08. > :56:10.It's about time we focused on the union, the union, the union.
:56:11. > :56:14.The problem with that is both sides are saying this is all about
:56:15. > :56:16.the union and not meddling in Westminster politics.
:56:17. > :56:20.But it actually is surely seen absolutely as a battle
:56:21. > :56:24.for the leadership, the very future of the Labour Party itself.
:56:25. > :56:26.Given, if you look at the links between the various people
:56:27. > :56:31.involved in this, it clear as daylight
:56:32. > :56:33.that that is what this is all about, isn't it?
:56:34. > :56:42.Len has been focused on control of the Labour
:56:43. > :56:45.Party, and I'm not to sure that he's that fussed about whether or not
:56:46. > :56:47.the Labour Party ever again forms of Parliament.
:56:48. > :56:51.Ultimately, that means, in the world of work,
:56:52. > :56:53.strong and effective trade union organisations that can stand
:56:54. > :56:57.In the corridors of power, the support of
:56:58. > :56:59.the country is needed to form a government.
:57:00. > :57:02.I don't want to see working people let down by us being
:57:03. > :57:07.You resigned a shadow ministerial job in order to
:57:08. > :57:09.try and accelerate Jeremy Corbyn's departure from leadership,
:57:10. > :57:15.and yet he just seems to get stronger in the party,
:57:16. > :57:18.the more people in your cabal, if that is the word, oppose him.
:57:19. > :57:20.We've got a real problem with that, there's no doubt.
:57:21. > :57:22.It's not appropriate just to personalise it
:57:23. > :57:25.Right now, we are not regarded to be a credible
:57:26. > :57:29.We have got to rebuild and win a fresh
:57:30. > :57:36.the trust of the British people because I do not want to see, with
:57:37. > :57:40.the greatest of respect to you, Wendy, an eternal opposition for
:57:41. > :57:42.the Labour Party and eternal government
:57:43. > :57:46.Do you think they are right when they say that the union should
:57:47. > :57:50.focus exquisitely on their members and not on meddling in politics?
:57:51. > :57:53.Jack mentioned the words strong leadership, and I think what we're
:57:54. > :57:55.seeing here is a battle within the unions, a lack
:57:56. > :57:58.of leadership for both unions and within the Labour Party,
:57:59. > :58:07.to sort out with his cabal what the way forward is.
:58:08. > :58:13.You contrast that with the strong leadership that we
:58:14. > :58:16.have within government, at a time when this country, as we recognise
:58:17. > :58:17.and acknowledge, faces challenges, we need strong leadership.
:58:18. > :58:23.So what else has been making the news here over this past week?
:58:24. > :58:26.is brought to us today by Ben Godfrey.
:58:27. > :58:29.The Asphalt Industry Alliance says it would cost councils a staggering
:58:30. > :58:33.?1.25 billion to fill in the region's potholes.
:58:34. > :58:35.A report to the board running Shropshire's hospitals
:58:36. > :58:38.says Telford's A may have to close overnight
:58:39. > :58:44.to the West Midlands mayoral election,
:58:45. > :58:46.Labour's candidate launched his manifesto
:58:47. > :58:53.in the Black Country with a promise to boost apprenticeships.
:58:54. > :59:00.I'm saying, for every ?1 million that we invest in infrastructure in
:59:01. > :59:05.the West Midlands, we need to deliver on apprenticeship to improve
:59:06. > :59:07.the skill of our young people. Wolverhampton Labour MP Pat McFadden
:59:08. > :59:09.has written a letter signed by 85 MPs and MEPs defending
:59:10. > :59:12.the BBC's Brexit coverage after Solihull Tory Julian Knight wrote
:59:13. > :59:17.one saying it was too pessimistic. And BMW workers at the Hams Hall
:59:18. > :59:19.engine plant in Warwickshire have voted for strike action
:59:20. > :59:22.in protest at plans to close their
:59:23. > :59:36.final salary pension scheme. The threat of a strike there looms
:59:37. > :59:41.at BMW. The usable that strike? BMW is a profitable, successful Company.
:59:42. > :59:45.Key to that success is its workforce. It is wrong to close the
:59:46. > :59:50.pension scheme. I'm behind the workers. Do you have sympathy for
:59:51. > :59:56.people who are losing salary late did pensions? I do have simply with
:59:57. > :59:59.those workers, but it is a commercial matter to be resolved
:00:00. > :00:06.between the employers and those on strike. I would hope that they would
:00:07. > :00:09.come to an amicable arrangement. Briefly, these are often seen as
:00:10. > :00:14.gold-plated pensions will stop increasingly for many out there,
:00:15. > :00:18.they are a thing of the past. Why should these workers be different?
:00:19. > :00:20.Because security and dignity in retirement matters would begin work
:00:21. > :00:24.all your life for a company and you are key to its success, you are
:00:25. > :00:26.entitled in your old age two and a decent pension.
:00:27. > :00:27.My thanks to Wendy Morton and Jack Dromey.
:00:28. > :00:30.Finally from me, a word about a special programme
:00:31. > :00:32.I'll be presenting in a couple of weeks' time.
:00:33. > :00:34.A Mayor For The West Midlands is our BBC Midlands Debate show,
:00:35. > :00:36.in which the main contenders will go head-to-head
:00:37. > :00:41.Join us on Thursday the 20th of April at 10:45pm,
:00:42. > :00:45.that's immediately after the News, here on BBC One.
:00:46. > :00:47.And Sunday Politics will return after its Easter break,
:00:48. > :01:05.This, though, is where we rejoin Andrew Neil.
:01:06. > :01:07.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:08. > :01:11.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:12. > :01:13.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:14. > :01:25.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:26. > :01:30.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:31. > :01:39.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:40. > :01:44.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:45. > :01:50.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:51. > :01:55.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:56. > :02:02.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:03. > :02:12.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:13. > :02:16.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:17. > :02:21.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:22. > :02:26.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:27. > :02:30.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:31. > :02:37.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:38. > :02:41.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:42. > :02:45.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:46. > :02:50.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:51. > :02:55.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:56. > :03:00.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:01. > :03:04.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:05. > :03:12.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:13. > :03:15.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:16. > :03:22.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:23. > :03:26.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:27. > :03:31.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:32. > :03:37.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:38. > :03:41.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:42. > :03:50.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:51. > :03:54.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:55. > :03:58.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:59. > :04:01.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:02. > :04:10.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:11. > :04:15.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:16. > :04:18.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:19. > :04:24.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:25. > :04:29.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:30. > :04:35.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:36. > :04:39.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:40. > :04:44.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:45. > :04:48.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:49. > :04:51.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:52. > :04:57.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:58. > :05:02.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:03. > :05:07.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:08. > :05:12.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:13. > :05:16.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:17. > :05:21.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:22. > :05:29.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:30. > :05:33.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:34. > :05:37.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:38. > :05:42.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:43. > :05:49.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:50. > :05:55.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:56. > :06:01.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:02. > :06:05.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:06. > :06:10.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:11. > :06:16.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:17. > :06:25.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:26. > :06:32.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:33. > :06:36.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:37. > :06:43.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:44. > :06:50.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:51. > :06:56.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:57. > :07:04.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:05. > :07:09.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:10. > :07:13.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:14. > :07:20.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:21. > :07:23.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:24. > :07:28.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:29. > :07:31.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:32. > :07:38.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:39. > :07:41.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:42. > :07:49.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:50. > :07:53.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:54. > :07:58.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:59. > :08:02.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:03. > :08:07.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:08. > :08:15.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:16. > :08:18.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:19. > :08:23.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:24. > :08:30.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:31. > :08:34.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:35. > :08:37.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:38. > :08:41.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:42. > :08:46.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:47. > :08:51.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:52. > :08:56.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:57. > :09:00.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:01. > :09:05.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:06. > :09:09.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:10. > :09:14.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:15. > :09:18.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:19. > :09:23.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:24. > :09:27.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:28. > :09:32.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:33. > :09:37.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:38. > :09:40.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:41. > :09:47.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:48. > :09:50.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:51. > :09:54.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:55. > :09:58.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:59. > :10:01.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:02. > :10:06.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:07. > :10:12.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:13. > :10:16.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:17. > :10:20.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:21. > :10:24.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:25. > :10:28.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:29. > :10:34.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:35. > :10:39.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:40. > :10:45.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:46. > :10:49.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:50. > :10:54.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:55. > :10:58.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:59. > :11:04.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:05. > :11:08.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:09. > :11:13.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:14. > :11:18.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:19. > :11:24.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:25. > :11:27.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:28. > :11:32.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:33. > :11:36.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:37. > :11:41.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:42. > :11:46.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:47. > :11:52.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:53. > :11:56.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:57. > :12:03.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:04. > :12:09.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:10. > :12:14.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:15. > :12:18.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:19. > :12:25.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:26. > :12:32.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:33. > :12:37.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:38. > :12:43.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:44. > :12:47.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:48. > :12:50.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:51. > :12:54.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:55. > :12:58.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:59. > :13:03.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:04. > :13:09.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:10. > :13:14.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:15. > :13:18.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:19. > :13:21.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:22. > :13:28.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:29. > :13:32.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:33. > :13:37.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:38. > :13:43.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:44. > :13:48.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:49. > :13:52.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:53. > :14:21.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:22. > :14:24.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:25. > :14:28.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:29. > :14:52.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"
:14:53. > :14:56.I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.