:00:35. > :00:39.It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,
:00:43. > :00:45.but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto
:00:46. > :00:52.promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.
:00:53. > :00:56.The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously
:00:57. > :00:59.agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but
:01:00. > :01:09.And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's
:01:10. > :01:14.And in the Midlands: to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne
:01:15. > :01:17.We boldly go where no Sunday Politics has gone before.
:01:18. > :01:19.Who'll be the rising stars of this week's elections?
:01:20. > :01:47.They hit an all-time low after coalition government,
:01:48. > :01:48.but are the Lib Dems poised to bounce back,
:01:49. > :01:53.And with me to analyse the week's politics,
:01:54. > :01:55.Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards, Tom Newton-Dunn.
:01:56. > :01:56.They'll be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:57. > :01:59.So when Theresa May was interviewed just over an hour ago
:02:00. > :02:02.on The Andrew Marr Show, the Prime Minister was asked
:02:03. > :02:04.to confirm that she would repeat David Cameron's 2015 election
:02:05. > :02:06.promise not to raise VAT, national insurance and income tax
:02:07. > :02:11.We have absolutely no plans to increase the level of tax,
:02:12. > :02:14.but I'm also very clear that I don't want to make specific proposals
:02:15. > :02:17.on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure that I can deliver on those.
:02:18. > :02:19.But it is, would be my intention as a Conservative Government
:02:20. > :02:22.and a Conservative Prime Minister, to reduce the taxes
:02:23. > :02:31.The Tories like to have a clear tax message in elections, are they
:02:32. > :02:35.getting into a bit of a mess? That method wasn't clear, but does it
:02:36. > :02:40.mean, saying they have no plans to increase the level of tax? We are
:02:41. > :02:44.clear there will not be a rise in VAT, a lot of commentators will get
:02:45. > :02:49.overexcited about that, but there was no great expectations there
:02:50. > :02:54.would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as it is, because even one percentage
:02:55. > :02:58.point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for the exchequer so it is tempting but
:02:59. > :03:06.there has been no speculation that would happen. We can see that she
:03:07. > :03:08.clearly wants to reiterate the language about hard-working families
:03:09. > :03:14.but I don't think we are that much the wiser. Even if she does not put
:03:15. > :03:18.up rates, according to projections the overall tax burden, as a
:03:19. > :03:24.percentage of GDP, is rising, will rise in the years ahead. That is why
:03:25. > :03:28.it was an odd phrase, I know she is doing it to be evasive but to say
:03:29. > :03:32.they have no plans to raise the general level of taxation, they do
:03:33. > :03:36.have. We also know they have specific plans because it was in the
:03:37. > :03:44.last budget, they had a tax rise which they had to revise, National
:03:45. > :03:51.Insurance rises, so very wisely in my view they are keeping options
:03:52. > :03:55.open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate was a fantasy world, totally
:03:56. > :04:00.unrelated to the demands that would follow. They now have the
:04:01. > :04:04.flexibility, one of the arguments you had heard last time was Philip
:04:05. > :04:09.Hammond saying to her, we have to break away from the 2015 manifesto
:04:10. > :04:13.commitment and we can only do it this way, that is one of the better
:04:14. > :04:18.arguments. The Tories like to talk about tax cuts in elections, whether
:04:19. > :04:24.they do it is another matter, but they are not being allowed to talk
:04:25. > :04:29.about tax cuts, they are now on the defensive over whether they will
:04:30. > :04:31.raise taxes. That is not a healthy position for the campaign to be in.
:04:32. > :04:37.If you look at the numbers, quite frankly, if you will not do this at
:04:38. > :04:41.this election with eight 20 point lead over Labour, then when will you
:04:42. > :04:45.take these tough decisions? Reading between the lines of what Theresa
:04:46. > :04:48.May has said all over different broadcasters this morning, income
:04:49. > :04:52.tax will go down for low-income families, such as the threshold rise
:04:53. > :04:59.that microbes that was already factored in. She has had to commit
:05:00. > :05:03.to it again. VAT will be fat, national insurance contributions
:05:04. > :05:09.will go up. Do you think they will go up? I think so, she had plenty of
:05:10. > :05:15.opportunity to rule it out and she didn't. There was a terrible mess
:05:16. > :05:19.with the budget, it is a good tax argument but not a good electoral
:05:20. > :05:23.argument that you are eroding the base so heavily with people moving
:05:24. > :05:26.into self-employment that as you raise national insurance
:05:27. > :05:29.contributions for everybody but the self-employed, it is something the
:05:30. > :05:34.Treasury will have to look at. The other triple lock on pensions, we
:05:35. > :05:38.don't know if they will keep to that either? If they are sensible they
:05:39. > :05:42.will find a form of words to give them flexibility in that area as
:05:43. > :05:47.well. I would say there is no question over that, that has gone.
:05:48. > :05:50.As Mrs May would say, you will have to wait for the manifesto. That is
:05:51. > :05:55.what all the party leaders tell me! Labour have spent the weekend
:05:56. > :05:57.pushing their messages Speaking at a camapign rally
:05:58. > :06:00.in London yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour
:06:01. > :06:08.government would fix what he called People are fed up, fed up with not
:06:09. > :06:12.being able to get somewhere to live, fed up waiting for hospital
:06:13. > :06:17.appointments, fed up with 0-hours contracts, fed up with low pay, fed
:06:18. > :06:22.up with debt, fed up with not being able to get on in their lives
:06:23. > :06:25.because we have a system that is rigged against so many.
:06:26. > :06:27.I've been joined from Newcastle by Labour's elections
:06:28. > :06:28.and campaigns co-ordinator, Ian Lavery.
:06:29. > :06:39.Good morning. To deal with this rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls
:06:40. > :06:44.it, the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has a 20 point plan for
:06:45. > :06:47.workers out today. When you add up everything he plans to do to help
:06:48. > :06:52.workers, how much will it cost? The full costings, one thing I need to
:06:53. > :06:58.say at the very beginning, the costings of any policy which we have
:06:59. > :07:02.already ruled out and any policy we will be ruling out in the next few
:07:03. > :07:08.days and weeks will be fully costed in the manifesto and in addition to
:07:09. > :07:12.the fact that it will be fully costed, we will see it in the
:07:13. > :07:17.manifesto how indeed it has been funded, so we are very clear,
:07:18. > :07:21.anything we have seen already, and there are some exciting policy
:07:22. > :07:25.releases and there will be more in the future, anything we are going to
:07:26. > :07:28.do will be fully costed and in the manifesto. You announced a 20 point
:07:29. > :07:33.plan but cannot tell me what the costs will be this morning so at the
:07:34. > :07:38.moment it is a menu without prices? It is not a menu without prices, it
:07:39. > :07:43.is a fantastic opportunity. This 20 point plan is something which will
:07:44. > :07:47.transform the lives of millions of millions of people in the
:07:48. > :07:52.workplace... But what is the cost? It will be welcomed by many people
:07:53. > :07:56.across the UK. The fact the costings have not been released, you will
:07:57. > :08:01.have to be patient, it will be released very clearly, it will
:08:02. > :08:05.identify that in the manifesto. Let me come down to one of the points,
:08:06. > :08:11.the end of the public sector pay freeze. Can you give us any idea how
:08:12. > :08:14.much that will cost? The end of the public sector pay freeze, so
:08:15. > :08:21.important to the future of the Labour Party, it is an massive
:08:22. > :08:26.policy decision. Let me say at this stage, Theresa May, the Prime
:08:27. > :08:30.Minister, this morning, on The Andrew Marr Show, did not have the
:08:31. > :08:35.common decency, courtesy all respect to condone the fact that nurses, the
:08:36. > :08:41.heroes of the NHS, have had a reduction of nearly 14% in their
:08:42. > :08:45.wages since 2010 and are using food banks to feed themselves! Does that
:08:46. > :08:52.not say everything that is wrong with today's society? So can you
:08:53. > :08:56.tell me what it will cost, which is what my question was? What I will
:08:57. > :08:59.say is everything the Labour Party pledges, everything that we come out
:09:00. > :09:04.with, what we will roll out between now and the 8th of June, will be
:09:05. > :09:08.fully costed, people will be very much aware of how much the costings
:09:09. > :09:13.will be, where the funding will come from, when the manifesto is
:09:14. > :09:17.published. What about doubling paternity leave, nu minimum wage,
:09:18. > :09:29.four new bank holidays, any idea what it will
:09:30. > :09:32.cost? These are exciting new proposals and of course today cost
:09:33. > :09:34.money but we are the sixth richest economy in the world. It is about
:09:35. > :09:37.redistribution of the wealth we create. We are seeing growth in the
:09:38. > :09:40.economy, it is how we utilise the finances in the best way we possibly
:09:41. > :09:46.can for a fairer society for the many and not the few. You just can't
:09:47. > :09:51.tell me how much it will cost? That is why I will repeat again that you
:09:52. > :09:55.need to be very patient. Do you know the cost yourself? You are the head
:09:56. > :09:59.of the campaign, do you know the cost of these things yourself? I am
:10:00. > :10:03.very much aware of how much the costings are likely to be, they have
:10:04. > :10:09.been identified, they will be published in the manifesto. You
:10:10. > :10:14.really do understand I would not be releasing today, live on your show,
:10:15. > :10:18.any costings or predictions with regards the manifesto. Why not? You
:10:19. > :10:24.have released the policy, why not the cost? Because there is a fine
:10:25. > :10:27.detail and we will identify it to the general public in the manifesto.
:10:28. > :10:34.We not only explain how much it will cost but we will explain where the
:10:35. > :10:39.funding comes from. Be patient. Will some of the costs be met by
:10:40. > :10:44.increasing taxes? I would think at this point in time there is not any
:10:45. > :10:50.indication to increase basic taxes and again the taxes and spending of
:10:51. > :10:55.the Labour Government with the proposals of the 20 point plan, the
:10:56. > :11:01.issues we have got, housing, the NHS, crime, education will all be
:11:02. > :11:06.identified with the costings in the publication. Can you tell us this
:11:07. > :11:13.morning, we'll tax for most people rise or not to finance this? We in
:11:14. > :11:20.the Labour Party are looking to a fair tax system which will be
:11:21. > :11:25.clearly identified in the manifesto. Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all
:11:26. > :11:31.0-hours contracts. Would that include those who actually like
:11:32. > :11:34.those contracts? There are nearly 1 million, depending on which figured
:11:35. > :11:38.you'd use, there are nearly 1 million people on zero-hours
:11:39. > :11:43.contract and the vast proportion of those want to be able to live a
:11:44. > :11:49.decent life, a secure life, they want to understand whether they will
:11:50. > :11:53.be at work the next day, they're included hours... I understand a lot
:11:54. > :11:57.of people don't like zero-hours contract and your proposal will
:11:58. > :12:03.address that, but there are those, I saw one survey where 65% of people
:12:04. > :12:06.on zero-hours contract like the flexibility it gives them. Will you
:12:07. > :12:11.force them off zero-hours contract or if they like them will they
:12:12. > :12:15.continue with them? We will discuss it with employee is to make sure
:12:16. > :12:19.individuals in the workplace have the right to negotiate hours in that
:12:20. > :12:27.workplace. Guaranteed hours is very, very important. Zero-hour contracts
:12:28. > :12:31.are an instrument in which employers abuse and exploit mainly young
:12:32. > :12:37.people, mainly female people in the workplace. We would be banning
:12:38. > :12:41.zero-hour contract. But there are those, students for example, who
:12:42. > :12:46.like them, would they be forced off zero-hour contracts in your
:12:47. > :12:50.proposal? Our proposal would be banning zero-hour contract and
:12:51. > :12:55.introducing contracts which have set hours in the workplace. You also say
:12:56. > :12:59.no company will be able to bid for a public contract unless the boss
:13:00. > :13:04.earns no more than 20 times the lowest paid, or the average wage,
:13:05. > :13:08.I'm not quite sure which. What would happen if British Aerospace bids to
:13:09. > :13:13.build more joint strike Fighters and the boss is paid more than 20 times?
:13:14. > :13:21.I understand the point you raise but we have an obscene situation in this
:13:22. > :13:25.country, Andrew, in which the bosses at the very top make an absolute
:13:26. > :13:32.fortune... But what would happen then? Who would build joint strike
:13:33. > :13:36.Fighters... The difference in wages between the top earners in the
:13:37. > :13:41.country and the people in the factories, in the workshops,
:13:42. > :13:46.producing the goods, is vast. I understand that is the reason you
:13:47. > :13:51.want a ratio. What I am saying is, what happens if the ratio is
:13:52. > :13:56.greater? Who gets the contract if not British Aerospace? Who else
:13:57. > :14:03.builds the planes? We are going to introduce a wage rate CEO of one to
:14:04. > :14:06.20. -- wage ratio. We want to close the gap between the people at the
:14:07. > :14:10.very top and people who produce the goods. Let me try one more Time, who
:14:11. > :14:17.would build the joint strike fighter? We would look at the issue
:14:18. > :14:21.as it came along but the policy is clear... Can you name a single
:14:22. > :14:29.defence contractor weather boss' salary is less than 20 times average
:14:30. > :14:36.earnings? We are not reducing, we have rolled that out as part of this
:14:37. > :14:42.fantastic plan to transform society to get rid of discrimination, to try
:14:43. > :14:47.and bring together our communities. We will introduce a pay ratio of one
:14:48. > :14:49.to 20. Fair enough, thank you very much.
:14:50. > :14:52.It's a month after the triggering of Article 50, and EU leaders -
:14:53. > :14:54.with the exception of Britain - met in Brussels this weekend
:14:55. > :14:57.to agree their opening negotiating stance, to get the divorce
:14:58. > :15:13.It is inside this psychedelic chamber where Britain's 'Grexit'
:15:14. > :15:18.future will be decided over the next two years, but there is a vast gulf
:15:19. > :15:28.in rhetoric coming from the UK and the EU. With parallel narratives
:15:29. > :15:31.emerging for both sides. There is broad agreement that an orderly
:15:32. > :15:36.withdrawal is in the interests of both sides. But Theresa May's
:15:37. > :15:39.position is that the terms of our future trade deal should be
:15:40. > :15:44.negotiated alongside the terms of our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says
:15:45. > :15:50.the terms of the UK's exit must be decided before any discussion on a
:15:51. > :15:54.future trade deal can begin. But don't forget that divorce
:15:55. > :15:59.settlement. Don't remind me. In Brussels, many think written should
:16:00. > :16:02.pay even more, while in the UK ministers said the divorce bill
:16:03. > :16:08.should be capped at 3 billion. After you. Thank you.
:16:09. > :16:18.For are you looking forward to it? Isn't that divorce bill a bit high?
:16:19. > :16:23.Isn't this about punishing Britain? We are very united, you all seem so
:16:24. > :16:31.surprised but it's a fact. How soon can we get a deal? We have to wait
:16:32. > :16:36.for the elections. It was the decision of Mrs May. It took over an
:16:37. > :16:39.hour for the leaders to make their entrances but once inside it's just
:16:40. > :16:45.a few minutes to agree the negotiating guidelines. They set out
:16:46. > :16:49.three main areas. The first phase of talks on the divorce settlement will
:16:50. > :16:52.deal with the existing financial commitments to the EU, the Northern
:16:53. > :16:57.Ireland border and the rights of EU citizens in the UK. They said a UK
:16:58. > :17:02.trade agreement can be discussed when the first phase of talks
:17:03. > :17:06.reaches significant progress. And that there must be unity in the
:17:07. > :17:12.negotiations, that individual EU members won't negotiate separately
:17:13. > :17:17.with the UK. They are quite good here at negotiating because they are
:17:18. > :17:20.used to it. They set a maximum and then they have to recede a little
:17:21. > :17:27.bit depending on what the other side is prepared to offer. I think there
:17:28. > :17:30.is room for manoeuvre in some issues, but I don't think some of
:17:31. > :17:36.the baseline things will change that much. For example I don't think the
:17:37. > :17:40.European Union will concede on the rights of citizens who are already
:17:41. > :17:47.in the UK. It will be very difficult for them to accept that they will
:17:48. > :17:50.not be any exit bill, and the question of Northern Ireland is very
:17:51. > :17:54.important as well, the hard order question. The baseline things are
:17:55. > :17:58.not going to move that much, then you have room for manoeuvring
:17:59. > :18:02.between. On security, defence and the fight against terrorism, the
:18:03. > :18:07.guidelines said the EU stands ready to work together. And after lunch,
:18:08. > :18:12.friendly signs from some EU leaders as they gave individual press
:18:13. > :18:15.conferences. Paul and said the talks should open doors to new
:18:16. > :18:22.opportunities and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had
:18:23. > :18:25.earlier said some in Britain were deluded about Brexit, softened her
:18:26. > :18:29.tone saying there was no conspiracy against the UK. Unity was the
:18:30. > :18:34.buzzword at this summit and for once everybody seemed to be sticking to
:18:35. > :18:38.the script. That unity is not only amongst the 27 states, it's also
:18:39. > :18:44.among the institutions so many of the divisions we have seen in the
:18:45. > :18:47.past at European level do not exist. That is very important and it's not
:18:48. > :18:52.be unity that is directed somehow against the UK because I think we
:18:53. > :19:05.all want this to be an orderly process and part of that is that the
:19:06. > :19:08.EU side is unified. So although there are no surprises here, what
:19:09. > :19:12.took place in this room was a significant step towards the real
:19:13. > :19:17.Brexit negotiations which will begin soon after the general election in
:19:18. > :19:21.June, said to be the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes.
:19:22. > :19:27.Isabel, Steve and Tom are still with me.
:19:28. > :19:34.Isabel, doesn't the British media have to be a bit careful here? We
:19:35. > :19:39.would never take at face value anything a British politician tells
:19:40. > :19:43.us. We would question it, put it in context and wonder if they are
:19:44. > :19:47.bluffing, but we seem to take at face value anything a European
:19:48. > :19:51.politician says about these negotiations. You only have to look
:19:52. > :19:56.at the front page of the Sunday Times today to see that. They quoted
:19:57. > :20:01.at length Juncker, who didn't like the food at the reception and this
:20:02. > :20:05.and that, and I think the mood is very optimistic. The key thing is
:20:06. > :20:10.the EU trade Commissioner has said we will get a free trade deal and a
:20:11. > :20:13.lot of people seem to be wilfully ignoring that incredibly big
:20:14. > :20:20.concession. That is what will happen in their view. Everything that is
:20:21. > :20:25.said at the moment needs a slight rerun over. They are all in
:20:26. > :20:28.negotiating positions, plus we seem to be completely unaware that they
:20:29. > :20:34.all have their own domestic constituencies as well. Angela
:20:35. > :20:37.Merkel has an important election coming up in September,
:20:38. > :20:41.Euroscepticism is quite different from Britain of course, but there's
:20:42. > :20:45.a different kind of euro scepticism in Germany, she has got to deal with
:20:46. > :20:49.that. Of course she has, which is why you are right, nothing should be
:20:50. > :20:55.taken too seriously out of the mouths of British politicians or
:20:56. > :20:59.European politicians until October this year. We have got to wait for
:21:00. > :21:04.the French elections, then German elections, and if you look through
:21:05. > :21:09.this you can see a way forward. There's no trade talks until pay up,
:21:10. > :21:13.but what was actually written was no trade talks until we make
:21:14. > :21:17.significant progress on the money. You can define significant progress
:21:18. > :21:23.in a lot of ways but come December, fireworks over the summer, we all
:21:24. > :21:26.get very excited about it, in these chairs I'm sure, come December
:21:27. > :21:31.things will look a lot smoother. The German elections are at the end of
:21:32. > :21:34.September but I've seen reports in German press, depending how it goes
:21:35. > :21:41.it could take until Christmas before a new coalition government is put
:21:42. > :21:44.together. The Brussels long-standing negotiating tactic of nothing is
:21:45. > :21:49.agreed until everything is agreed, then I guess the British could say
:21:50. > :21:53.we agree a certain sum of money if that's what it takes but that
:21:54. > :21:59.depends on them, what good trade deal we get. If we don't get that,
:22:00. > :22:04.the sum of money is off the table. In that sense, the two are going
:22:05. > :22:08.parallel. However, I wouldn't entirely dismiss what people are
:22:09. > :22:14.saying in their pre-election periods to their own electorates because
:22:15. > :22:18.they have to some extent to deliver subsequently. Of course Angela
:22:19. > :22:22.Merkel is campaigning and electioneering, who wouldn't, she
:22:23. > :22:26.has a tough election to fight, but she is measured and thoughtful and
:22:27. > :22:30.when she says things like some of the British are delusional, that is
:22:31. > :22:37.unusually strong language for her. What was she referring to? I don't
:22:38. > :22:41.know, it wasn't specific. Have the cake and eat it perhaps the
:22:42. > :22:45.sequencing the British don't want. When they thought the British
:22:46. > :22:48.government was going to effectively demand membership of the single
:22:49. > :22:56.market, that's not going to happen now. Unless you sign up to the four
:22:57. > :23:01.pillars, that's the cake and eat it proposition, which they are right in
:23:02. > :23:06.saying Theresa May has made. But everybody has access, even with no
:23:07. > :23:15.deal you have access. The other side of it is I think there will be a
:23:16. > :23:21.united position from them. And so, as somebody pointed out in that
:23:22. > :23:29.report, they are experienced, tough negotiators, so I don't think it
:23:30. > :23:35.will be quite as easy as some think. I spoke to one of those who drew up
:23:36. > :23:38.Article 50 and they said to me they deliberately put this two year
:23:39. > :23:45.timetable in to make it impossible for anybody to think about leaving.
:23:46. > :23:48.This is really tight, this negotiation. Easy, it isn't.
:23:49. > :23:50.This coming Thursday, voters up and down the country
:23:51. > :23:53.will be going to the polls in this year's local elections.
:23:54. > :23:55.Over the past few weeks I've interviewed representatives
:23:56. > :23:57.of the Conservative Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,
:23:58. > :24:00.Today it's the turn of Plaid Cymru and the SNP.
:24:01. > :24:03.A little earlier I spoke Alex Salmond, who until 2014
:24:04. > :24:07.I started by asking him why Scots should vote SNP in local elections
:24:08. > :24:10.when the Scottish Government had just cut central Government funding
:24:11. > :24:26.It's actually a funding increase going into Scottish councils this
:24:27. > :24:29.year, and if you look at the funding position for example between
:24:30. > :24:33.Scottish councils and those in England, which are obviously
:24:34. > :24:36.directly related through the Barnett formula, the funding in Scotland has
:24:37. > :24:47.been incomparably better than that in England so there's a whole range
:24:48. > :24:50.of the -- of reasons... What's happening south of the border
:24:51. > :24:54.indicates the protection the Scottish Parliament has been able to
:24:55. > :24:59.put in that helps vital services in Scotland. But there hasn't been a
:25:00. > :25:03.funding increase, the block grant from Westminster to Edinburgh was
:25:04. > :25:10.increased by 1.5% in real terms but the grant to councils was cut by
:25:11. > :25:15.2.6%. It was going to be a cut of 330 million, the Greens got you to
:25:16. > :25:25.reduce it to 170 million but it is still a cut of 2.6%. Your own
:25:26. > :25:30.Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut to 391 million. You have cut the
:25:31. > :25:33.money to councils. Yes, but councils have available to them more
:25:34. > :25:39.resources this year, and as you say the budget increased that further
:25:40. > :25:41.which is why we put forward an excellent local government budget in
:25:42. > :25:48.Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off...
:25:49. > :25:52.You asked me about Aberdeenshire, and Aberdeenshire has put forward a
:25:53. > :25:57.budget for investment expansion and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3
:25:58. > :26:01.million off the education budget, and I'm very grateful you have given
:26:02. > :26:07.me the opportunity to make that point. The Government in Edinburgh
:26:08. > :26:13.has cut the money to Aberdeenshire by ?11 million. It is a cut. But
:26:14. > :26:16.there is an investment budget in Aberdeenshire that has been made
:26:17. > :26:22.available by the ability to increase the council tax by 2.5% after a
:26:23. > :26:26.nine-year freeze in Scotland, and that has brought more resources into
:26:27. > :26:30.local government and that's why the butchered in Aberdeenshire has been
:26:31. > :26:34.an investment budget including protection of the education budget
:26:35. > :26:39.in the face of a Tory and liberal attempt to cut bit. You have to
:26:40. > :26:42.compare what is happening in Scotland and England, and there's no
:26:43. > :26:48.doubt Scottish local authorities have been much better funded than
:26:49. > :26:50.those in England over the last few years and that's been the ability of
:26:51. > :26:56.the Scottish Government to protect the services at local level. A good
:26:57. > :27:02.reason for voting SNP. If they have been so well funded, why after a
:27:03. > :27:10.decade of SNP rule do one in five Scottish pupils leave primary school
:27:11. > :27:14.functionally illiterate? You have got to take these things... Nicola
:27:15. > :27:19.Sturgeon has made it a top priority to address these challenges but
:27:20. > :27:22.let's take another statistic. 93% of Scottish kids are now emerging from
:27:23. > :27:30.school to positive destinations, that means to further education,
:27:31. > :27:36.apprenticeships or work. Why are one in five functionally illiterate? You
:27:37. > :27:40.argue one statistic, I'm arguing Scottish education is putting in
:27:41. > :27:45.some substantially good performances like the 93% going on to positive
:27:46. > :27:50.destinations. You can't have a failing education system if you have
:27:51. > :27:54.got that 93%, and incidentally a record low youth unemployment in
:27:55. > :27:59.Scotland without the second lowest unemployment rate in Europe. These
:28:00. > :28:04.pupils are being prepared by the Scottish education system. Let's
:28:05. > :28:08.take the figures in the round on education. It's so important. Under
:28:09. > :28:13.your watch, under your government, the Scottish schools in the most
:28:14. > :28:24.important global comparison have fallen from tenth to 19th in
:28:25. > :28:31.science, and 11 to 24th in maths, that is a record of decline and
:28:32. > :28:36.failure. That is by the OECD and first questions about that, but the
:28:37. > :28:41.OECD has also described Scotland is one of the best educated societies
:28:42. > :28:46.in the world. That was from the school system in previous years gone
:28:47. > :28:52.by. For those who are currently in Scottish schools, you have fallen
:28:53. > :28:55.from 11th to 24th in mathematics. The OECD was commenting on
:28:56. > :28:59.introduction of the new curriculum for excellence in which they have
:29:00. > :29:04.given a resounding thumbs up to it, and that's the same source as the
:29:05. > :29:08.rankings which you are comparing. Nicola Sturgeon has said there are
:29:09. > :29:12.challenges on Scottish education, particularly the access through the
:29:13. > :29:16.education system and the attainment gap but don't tell me it's failing
:29:17. > :29:19.when 55% of our pupils have gone on to higher education. That's one of
:29:20. > :29:27.the most impressive figures in the world. Why have you cut 4000
:29:28. > :29:30.teachers? The pupil numbers in Scotland have been falling over
:29:31. > :29:34.recent years as well and now of course we are increasing the number
:29:35. > :29:38.of people going through teachers training so we can make sure that
:29:39. > :29:43.number increases, but listen, the Scottish Government and Scottish
:29:44. > :29:47.Parliament, as you very well know, are subject to real terms spending
:29:48. > :29:51.cuts over the last few years and all public services have been under
:29:52. > :29:54.pressure. The main reason in terms of teacher numbers has been an
:29:55. > :29:59.attempt on the Scottish Government to protect the teacher pupil ratio,
:30:00. > :30:07.and that will now be enhanced by a further taker -- intake. You
:30:08. > :30:13.promised you would reduce primary class sizes to 18 and instead they
:30:14. > :30:19.are now 23.5 and rising. You broke that promise. You didn't mention
:30:20. > :30:23.where we started from. We have kept the teacher pupil ratio very solid
:30:24. > :30:28.in Scotland and that's been against a range of public expenditure cuts
:30:29. > :30:29.but the new intake of teachers into the new teacher training in Scotland
:30:30. > :30:40.I think will enhance the system. You have spent in the pasty in
:30:41. > :30:45.Hollywood 43 hours on Government time debating independence. How many
:30:46. > :30:50.hours have you debated education on Government time? I don't have that
:30:51. > :30:54.they get a hand... The answer is zero, you have spent zero-hours
:30:55. > :31:00.debating education on Government time. Isn't it time the SNP got back
:31:01. > :31:04.to concentrating on the day job? Andrew, as you very well know Nicola
:31:05. > :31:08.Sturgeon has identified a key priority, closing the attainment gap
:31:09. > :31:13.in Scottish education. That is exactly what she has done. Let me
:31:14. > :31:18.answer the question, it is difficult to be in a remote location, if you
:31:19. > :31:25.talk before I answer the question then the view was will not be able
:31:26. > :31:29.to listen. I let you answer that without saying a word. Is this
:31:30. > :31:34.general election about independence, as you say it is, or not about
:31:35. > :31:40.independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says it is? No, I have said exactly the
:31:41. > :31:43.same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The issue what independence will be
:31:44. > :31:49.decided in a national referendum of the Scottish people. The mandate for
:31:50. > :31:53.that referendum was gained in last year's Scottish elections. What this
:31:54. > :31:56.election is about is backing the right of the Scottish parliament to
:31:57. > :31:58.exercise that mandate and also providing real opposition to this
:31:59. > :32:03.Tory Government and allowing the Scottish Parliament to reverse
:32:04. > :32:08.austerity and some of the public expenditure cutbacks you have been
:32:09. > :32:09.talking about, that is what this is about, backing our Scottish
:32:10. > :32:11.Parliament. Alex Salmond, speaking
:32:12. > :32:12.to me earlier. I'm now joined by the leader
:32:13. > :32:19.of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. You accuse the Government of wanting
:32:20. > :32:24.an extreme Brexit, those are your words. What is the difference
:32:25. > :32:27.between hard Brexit and extreme Brexit? My concern is the way in
:32:28. > :32:32.which we leave the European Union could be very damaging to Wales if,
:32:33. > :32:36.for example, there are tariffs introduced then that would have a
:32:37. > :32:42.real impact in terms of Welsh jobs, and I want to make sure that we have
:32:43. > :32:46.a Brexit that doesn't cause the damage to Wales that could be
:32:47. > :32:52.caused. But what is the difference between extreme and hard? Anything
:32:53. > :32:55.that puts Welsh jobs at risk is either extreme or hard and
:32:56. > :32:59.unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we will do what we can to protect those
:33:00. > :33:04.jobs. You want Wales to remain a member of the single market even if
:33:05. > :33:08.the UK isn't, which would mean Wales having to accept the free movement
:33:09. > :33:20.of people, still being under the jurisdiction of the European Court,
:33:21. > :33:22.and you also want to stay in the customs union which means you could
:33:23. > :33:25.not do your own free trade deals. What is the difference between that
:33:26. > :33:27.and being a member of the European Union? We would be like Norway,
:33:28. > :33:30.outside the European Union and inside the single market. The key
:33:31. > :33:34.question is the issue of jobs and the ability to continue to trade.
:33:35. > :33:38.Wales exports, we are the biggest exporter in the whole of the UK, so
:33:39. > :33:47.there are many jobs reliant upon those goods being able to be sold to
:33:48. > :33:52.the single market. Is it central to the UK? Out of the four countries
:33:53. > :34:00.that make up the UK... Proportionally, yes. If you remain
:34:01. > :34:04.in the single market, it is hard to see how Wales could stay in the
:34:05. > :34:09.single market if the UK -- when the rest of the UK was not, you cite
:34:10. > :34:14.Norway, that has free movement, it has to be said, it effectively have
:34:15. > :34:18.to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court, it is not in the
:34:19. > :34:26.customs union so it can do some of its own free trade deals, but the
:34:27. > :34:30.Welsh people voted to leave. We have to accept the principle of free
:34:31. > :34:34.movement if there is not going to be a hard border between the north and
:34:35. > :34:38.south of Ireland. There is going to be free movement within Ireland and
:34:39. > :34:43.therefore freedom of movement, as we said in the referendum campaign,
:34:44. > :34:49.would be very, very difficult to rule out. You lost that campaign, as
:34:50. > :34:55.you know, Wales voted to leave, 17 Council areas voted to leave, only
:34:56. > :35:00.five voted to remain. Doesn't it explain why your party is going
:35:01. > :35:06.nowhere? A majority in Wales voted to leave but you effectively want to
:35:07. > :35:10.support that and de facto remain in the EU? I don't accept that, we
:35:11. > :35:16.accepted the result but Plaid Cymru now is about defending Wales. There
:35:17. > :35:19.are so many risks facing our people from the jobs perspective, the
:35:20. > :35:23.privatisation perspective, the cuts perspective, and from the fact that
:35:24. > :35:28.the Tories would like to grab power was back from our National Assembly,
:35:29. > :35:32.so the key point... If you look at the Wales bill that went through
:35:33. > :35:36.recently, the list of reserved powers there suggests there are some
:35:37. > :35:43.powers currently within the Welsh Assembly jurisdiction that would be
:35:44. > :35:47.dragged back. Which power was will Westminster take back? They could
:35:48. > :35:55.take powers back over the NHS, for example. There is no indication they
:35:56. > :36:04.want to do that. The Tories have attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my
:36:05. > :36:07.point! Quite viciously. If they increase their mandate, I wouldn't
:36:08. > :36:11.put it past them to try to take power was back over the NHS and then
:36:12. > :36:16.of course we risk our NHS being privatised though this election is
:36:17. > :36:19.all about defending Wales, protecting Welsh people from further
:36:20. > :36:24.privatisation and cuts and a power grab from the Tories. Why is there
:36:25. > :36:28.never a breakthrough for your party, Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in
:36:29. > :36:33.Wales for years, the Tories do quite well, Ukip had a surge for a while,
:36:34. > :36:37.it looks like the Tories will have another surge, never you, always the
:36:38. > :36:41.bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait until Thursday and I think you will
:36:42. > :36:45.see that in many parts of Wales we will increase our representation at
:36:46. > :36:51.a local council level. In the Rhondda, where I am assembly member,
:36:52. > :36:59.we are looking to increase our representation... You are only 13%
:37:00. > :37:03.in the polls will stop which is half of even the Tories in Wales! If you
:37:04. > :37:10.don't breakthrough in the selection, if the real problem is going
:37:11. > :37:16.nowhere, do you think you will pack it in? Robert Green not, I have a
:37:17. > :37:20.job to do, a vision of Wales which is about building up our nation and
:37:21. > :37:24.standing on our own two feet and my job is not done yet. Thank you for
:37:25. > :37:28.being with us as part of your job, we will see how it goes on Thursday.
:37:29. > :37:30.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:31. > :37:32.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:37:33. > :37:44.Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.
:37:45. > :37:50.Who'll be the rising stars of this week's elections
:37:51. > :37:53.for county councillors, and a metro mayor?
:37:54. > :37:58.And who's going to crash and burn, without trace?
:37:59. > :38:00.Our heavenly bodies here with us today,
:38:01. > :38:05.Pat McFadden, Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East,
:38:06. > :38:07.was a Business Minister under Gordon Brown,
:38:08. > :38:10.and Mark Garnier, Conservative MP for Wyre Forest,
:38:11. > :38:17.is an International Trade Minister under Theresa May.
:38:18. > :38:21.First up, the contest for Metro Mayor, with polling
:38:22. > :38:24.on Thursday, to decide who'll lead the new Combined Authority
:38:25. > :38:28.responsible for three million people in Coventry, Birmingham
:38:29. > :38:32.The Communist candidate became the last of the six contenders
:38:33. > :38:38.He's promising to nationalise the M6 toll
:38:39. > :38:41.and introduce a living wage of ?10 an hour.
:38:42. > :38:44.He also has big plans for public transport.
:38:45. > :38:48.Public ownership of buses with massive investment
:38:49. > :38:53.in infrastructure with the aim of lowering the cost
:38:54. > :39:00.Cheap fares, regular buses, these are policies
:39:01. > :39:03.that are needed to really turn things round.
:39:04. > :39:05.And they're socialist policies, you know.
:39:06. > :39:11.A communist is a socialist who really means what he says.
:39:12. > :39:13.Graham Stevenson with our thought for the day.
:39:14. > :39:16.And you can find more details on all six candidates
:39:17. > :39:24.on the politics pages of the BBC News website.
:39:25. > :39:31.Graham Stevenson thinks and that your candidate and others to come up
:39:32. > :39:34.are obsessed with the M6 toll road when people are more interested in
:39:35. > :39:42.regular bus services and cheap fares. He has a point, hasn't he? I
:39:43. > :39:43.just hope that there is interest in this West Midlands mayoral election.
:39:44. > :39:47.Before the general election was Before the general election was
:39:48. > :39:50.called, I was knocking doors in my constituency in Wolverhampton to fit
:39:51. > :39:55.see what people thought of it and how engage they were with it, and
:39:56. > :39:58.sadly my conclusion was that this contest had so far failed to capture
:39:59. > :40:02.the imagination of the public in the West Midlands. I think that is a
:40:03. > :40:05.shame. I am not against strong mayors. A look at what has happened
:40:06. > :40:12.in London and you can see the profile of the mayor there and what
:40:13. > :40:14.it has done for the city, and I do not want all the power to be
:40:15. > :40:19.concern about this contest on concern about this contest on
:40:20. > :40:24.Thursday, of course I want the Labour conduct candidate to win, but
:40:25. > :40:30.I am concerned how much the tenant is going to be. If he is correct,
:40:31. > :40:35.that is despite your candidate acknowledging that he spent
:40:36. > :40:39.something like ?1 million raised and spent before the spending limits
:40:40. > :40:43.came in at the end of March, leading James Byrne, the Green candidates,
:40:44. > :40:48.to say we need tougher limits on spending. Has always been a great
:40:49. > :40:50.argument about how much political parties can spend on political
:40:51. > :40:53.campaigns. The long campaign and a short campaign. The other argument
:40:54. > :40:58.is where they get that money from, and you will have noticed in your
:40:59. > :41:00.time in Westminster that there is an endless battle of big business
:41:01. > :41:02.backing the Conservatives were as trade unionists back Labour. At the
:41:03. > :41:06.end of the day, you cannot get away end of the day, you cannot get away
:41:07. > :41:10.from the fact that if people are backing parties, that is another
:41:11. > :41:13.form of democracy where people are committing to those parties through
:41:14. > :41:18.donations are not from the big large donations are not from the big large
:41:19. > :41:23.amounts of money, smaller mats come from many different people and that
:41:24. > :41:26.is eight good thing. Is it not very telling that both of your candidates
:41:27. > :41:29.are distancing themselves from the are distancing themselves from the
:41:30. > :41:36.party leaders? Shone Simon is not going out of his way to emphasise
:41:37. > :41:41.Jeremy Corbyn and the same with the Tories. I think were you have to
:41:42. > :41:46.volt power, that is going to happen. I think in our traditional way of
:41:47. > :41:49.thinking about politics, we think of these parties as monolith but there
:41:50. > :41:54.has not been devolution of one side or another in the country for some
:41:55. > :41:58.time. I think it follows from the time. I think it follows from the
:41:59. > :42:02.devolving power system that there are different identities in
:42:03. > :42:06.different parts of the country. Shone Simon and Andy Street Art both
:42:07. > :42:13.on 43 or 45%. Neither will get to on 43 or 45%. Neither will get to
:42:14. > :42:18.the first round so it is second preferences. I will say this, but
:42:19. > :42:23.people like the UK and Lib Dems will go for Andy Street that will get
:42:24. > :42:24.across. We will see and as we said, there are six
:42:25. > :42:27.This week's polling will go a long way towards establishing
:42:28. > :42:29.the mood music, going forward to the main event,
:42:30. > :42:33.This will be a general election like no other.
:42:34. > :42:36.Crunching the numbers from the poll ratings into our familiar
:42:37. > :42:39.catalogue of marginal seats is just the start this time.
:42:40. > :42:42.For the big picture, Ben Godfrey tells us
:42:43. > :42:46.you must also factor in, that "Brexit Effect."
:42:47. > :42:49.The PM made has made it clear in the last week
:42:50. > :42:54.that Brexit will be front and centre of her general election campaign.
:42:55. > :43:02.in those important Brexit negotiations.
:43:03. > :43:07.The West Midlands region voted 59% to 41% in favour of Brexit.
:43:08. > :43:10.But in areas of the Black Country, like Princes End,
:43:11. > :43:16.and there's little evidence of buyer's remorse here.
:43:17. > :43:19.In this sort of area, people see a lot of
:43:20. > :43:23.immigration coming into this sort of area and it's such as the housing
:43:24. > :43:28.It seems to be going to foreigners, not British people.
:43:29. > :43:31.The Potteries also voted overwhelmingly to leave.
:43:32. > :43:35.But despite supporting remain, Labour saw off the Ukip challenge
:43:36. > :43:38.in the Stoke Central by-election in February.
:43:39. > :43:41.The party has now also pledged to end free movement.
:43:42. > :43:45.Of course we recognise and accept that
:43:46. > :43:50.immigration rules are going to have to change when we leave the EU.
:43:51. > :43:53.Let me say that again, we accept that immigration rules
:43:54. > :43:57.are going to have to change when we leave the EU.
:43:58. > :44:00.So is this election going to be just about Brexit?
:44:01. > :44:03.In the Labour-held marginal of Newcastle-under-Lyme
:44:04. > :44:10.I know a lot of people who I know and we talked to
:44:11. > :44:13.but there's a lot more involved, isn't there?
:44:14. > :44:16.Theresa May's pitch in traditional Labour areas
:44:17. > :44:20.of the Midlands which voted Brexit is a bold one.
:44:21. > :44:23.The question is will voters be in the mood to buy it
:44:24. > :44:31.And Jeremy Corbyn is campaigning in Telford as we speak.
:44:32. > :44:35.We're also joined here today by the former Solihull MP
:44:36. > :44:43.Her Liberal Democrat Party hope to sustain their Brexit bounce
:44:44. > :44:46.into these elections - anti-Brexit more like -
:44:47. > :44:56.and to corner the market among the remaining Remainers.
:44:57. > :45:02.And in which floated as heavily as it did to leave the European Union,
:45:03. > :45:07.you would have to say that is a risky strategy. I don't think so.
:45:08. > :45:11.What we have got is a situation where the Conservatives, who we know
:45:12. > :45:16.are strong and are going to do well, but there is no opposition from the
:45:17. > :45:21.Labour Party certainly. We are the party of opposition. 40% of people
:45:22. > :45:26.vote in the West Midlands and voters remain. They are aghast at the
:45:27. > :45:29.situation where without a single shot being fired, Theresa May has
:45:30. > :45:33.said we are going to leave the single market. I know the polls
:45:34. > :45:40.are... Well, we have seen what we have seen in the past couple of
:45:41. > :45:42.years or so, but 11% is not exactly a bounce. That is your rating so far
:45:43. > :45:47.so it implies you have to concentrate your support in places
:45:48. > :45:50.like Cheltenham and Yardley. Have you considered renouncing your
:45:51. > :45:55.periods to fight again? No thanks! I do not think I have another general
:45:56. > :46:00.election in me. We also need to realise that Brexit is not the only
:46:01. > :46:05.thing that will determine this election. Look at the state of the
:46:06. > :46:09.NHS at the moment and social care. It is quite shameful. Look at our
:46:10. > :46:15.schools and all be cuts that are going on. People are really worried
:46:16. > :46:19.about that and even people who voted to leave haven't necessarily realise
:46:20. > :46:23.that a hard Brexit where we've even the single market which will be
:46:24. > :46:27.economically disastrous for this country and for jobs was the
:46:28. > :46:32.direction we were going is all we are saying is that people should
:46:33. > :46:36.have a say on the actual deal. How much credence should be attached to
:46:37. > :46:39.this so-called progressive alliance in our part of the country among
:46:40. > :46:44.like-minded parties like yourselves and the Greens on Brexit and other
:46:45. > :46:50.issues? Well, there are areas where we are looking to work together and
:46:51. > :46:53.I think that's right. A packed? Above my pay grade, that one, I'm
:46:54. > :47:00.afraid to say. I cannot comment on that. There will be, because the
:47:01. > :47:03.Conservatives are going to be so strong, the opposition parties are
:47:04. > :47:07.going to have to work together to try and get some sort of opposition
:47:08. > :47:11.actually enforced. Mark, if she is right and this election is not just
:47:12. > :47:15.about Brexit even if Theresa May would prefer it was, there are other
:47:16. > :47:20.issues particularly health and the highly marginal seat of Cheltenham
:47:21. > :47:25.given the tug-of-war over hospitals. I think that is right. As a member
:47:26. > :47:28.of Parliament where we had a extraordinary result in Tasman one,
:47:29. > :47:33.I would always maintain that you cannot assume these elections are a
:47:34. > :47:35.foregone conclusion. You cannot assume that there is just one
:47:36. > :47:39.argument to be had, but I do think that this time around, there is a
:47:40. > :47:43.much bigger narrative going on. It is about two things, it is about
:47:44. > :47:48.Brexit but also about the leadership of the parties. You will inevitably
:47:49. > :47:51.come back to this question of can the next Government to be a strong
:47:52. > :47:54.and secure Government or is it going to be a different Government, a
:47:55. > :48:00.coalition Government which will not necessarily work exclusively in the
:48:01. > :48:03.national interest? That'll be the key question. Isn't the lesson of
:48:04. > :48:07.that report by Ben Godfrey that in places like the Black Country and
:48:08. > :48:12.Stoke-on-Trent, attitudes on Brexit are hardening and Labour is at risk
:48:13. > :48:17.of seeing the Conservatives trying Brexit sympathising voters away from
:48:18. > :48:20.get given that the Conservatives say get given that the Conservatives say
:48:21. > :48:25.they are the party of Brexit and the Liberal Democrats could attract the
:48:26. > :48:30.party? I do not see that happening party? I do not see that happening
:48:31. > :48:33.in places like Wolverhampton or the Black Country, but let me just say
:48:34. > :48:37.that there is a big Brexit factor in this election but it is not the one
:48:38. > :48:40.the Prime Minister as advanced as a reason for calling it. She said she
:48:41. > :48:44.called the election because somehow called the election because somehow
:48:45. > :48:47.she was having trouble getting Brexit through Parliament, couldn't
:48:48. > :48:53.govern properly on Brexit. The Article 50 bill which triggered the
:48:54. > :49:01.negotiations went to buy a majority of 494 to 122, a majority of 372
:49:02. > :49:04.votes. The truth is that this election isn't taking place because
:49:05. > :49:06.the Prime Minister has trouble getting Brexit through Parliament,
:49:07. > :49:11.it is taking place because she is it is taking place because she is
:49:12. > :49:17.trying to cash in on a huge opinion poll lead for the Conservatives and
:49:18. > :49:22.before the reality of how tough the Brexit negotiations are becomes
:49:23. > :49:23.clear. That suggests, and you mentioned the ratings, that places
:49:24. > :49:26.like Dudley South and Stourbridge like Dudley South and Stourbridge
:49:27. > :49:30.which have been Labour seats in the house and that he will need back to
:49:31. > :49:34.form a Government, you are 1 million miles away from them according to
:49:35. > :49:39.the polls. I am realistic about this election. I have been involved in
:49:40. > :49:43.politics for a long time. I cannot remember a situation where an
:49:44. > :49:46.opposition party goes into an election so far behind and really,
:49:47. > :49:51.this election is not about the national interest, it is about the
:49:52. > :49:56.interests of the Conservative Party. Quick response to that. I don't
:49:57. > :49:58.think it is. Theresa May is going to establish her own mandate. Gordon
:49:59. > :50:01.Brown bottled it into dozens seven. Brown bottled it into dozens seven.
:50:02. > :50:05.I think the important thing is that it is not about Article 50 but the
:50:06. > :50:10.Great Repeal Bill. That is a corrosive the complex bill coming
:50:11. > :50:11.through. We need a really strong parliament to work on that. That
:50:12. > :50:13.offer the moment. It's not just the Metro Mayor that
:50:14. > :50:15.will be decided on Thursday. There'll also be elections
:50:16. > :50:18.to determine the future of the five councils in our shire counties,
:50:19. > :50:21.at least for the next four years. Polling will be in Warwickshire,
:50:22. > :50:22.Worcestershire, Gloucestershire, Shropshire and Staffordshire,
:50:23. > :50:25.where Emma Thomas found voters in this marginal county have a habit
:50:26. > :50:32.of predicting general elections too. MUSIC: Also Sprach Zarathustra
:50:33. > :50:40.by Richard Strauss A gateway from Staffordshire
:50:41. > :50:43.to the Galaxy beyond. Keele University's Observatory
:50:44. > :50:46.telescope has the power to see billions of light years
:50:47. > :50:50.away from the earth. But with a snap general
:50:51. > :50:53.election looming on the 8th of June, political scientists would
:50:54. > :50:57.benefit from a glimpse But perhaps we don't need to gaze
:50:58. > :51:03.to the stars for a forecast. The result of the
:51:04. > :51:06.Staffordshire County Council election could be an insight into
:51:07. > :51:11.the result of the general election. The local voting patterns to tend
:51:12. > :51:15.to map onto the concerns of voters People are often willing
:51:16. > :51:20.to give the Government a kicking in a local election
:51:21. > :51:23.but not quite so willing when it comes to
:51:24. > :51:26.a national election. This will be interesting,
:51:27. > :51:28.because they are so close together that it isn't just
:51:29. > :51:31.a symbolic protest vote. The Conservatives currently hold
:51:32. > :51:34.power at County Hall. 62 - the number of
:51:35. > :51:39.seats up for grabs. 34 - the number held
:51:40. > :51:44.by the controlling party, Three - if the Tories
:51:45. > :51:52.lose three seats, And this is the man hoping
:51:53. > :51:58.to retain his seat as council leader as he celebrates 30 years
:51:59. > :52:02.in office this May. The economy is booming
:52:03. > :52:05.in Staffordshire, Everybody's got the chance to get
:52:06. > :52:10.into a decent job and unemployment is really low
:52:11. > :52:13.because of the effort we've done. Labour held Staffordshire
:52:14. > :52:17.for 28 years until 2009, but can they win votes locally
:52:18. > :52:20.when the national party We're going to make sure that
:52:21. > :52:25.people get the skills needed to get into reasonable jobs
:52:26. > :52:29.with good levels of pay We're looking at making sure
:52:30. > :52:35.that older people and 48 Green party candidates
:52:36. > :52:41.are standing on Thursday. It's about local issues
:52:42. > :52:47.and local concerns It's a young political
:52:48. > :52:52.party compared to the other parties, but more people
:52:53. > :52:54.are saying they want an alternative vote and
:52:55. > :52:56.they want people who are actually going to work
:52:57. > :52:59.for them and listen to them. UK also has a solitary
:53:00. > :53:01.county councillor. We want senior citizens
:53:02. > :53:16.to be looked after. When the ballot papers
:53:17. > :53:18.are counted on Friday, the eyes of the nation,
:53:19. > :53:21.if not the universe, will be on results in places
:53:22. > :53:30.like Staffordshire. And a number of independent
:53:31. > :53:34.candidates are also standing So will the self-professed
:53:35. > :53:49.Creative County yet again be If these county elections are
:53:50. > :53:53.pointers, it is a difficult message because millions upon millions upon
:53:54. > :53:57.millions of pounds have been taken out of county council budget over
:53:58. > :54:02.the period when the Government has been led by your party. That is an
:54:03. > :54:05.uncomfortable message in those knocks Brexit campaigning issues
:54:06. > :54:09.about public services which have been squeezed hard. The other side
:54:10. > :54:12.of the argument is that if you put in a city like Birmingham, before
:54:13. > :54:16.the money was taken away it was still running a deficit so you want
:54:17. > :54:20.something that illustrates just how important competent management is,
:54:21. > :54:24.that gives the example. It is going to be about who can run these
:54:25. > :54:27.services most effectively using the tax payers' money to go before that
:54:28. > :54:32.it possibly can and that is why it became such an important point of
:54:33. > :54:37.view. But we have heard readers very uncomfortable with some of the
:54:38. > :54:44.measure brought in to save money. I have also seen a male counting that
:54:45. > :54:51.with very good county leaders who recognise that you shouldn't... If
:54:52. > :54:55.we have to money on libraries, you do not say that you're going to cut
:54:56. > :54:59.have the money of libraries, you ask out to provide the same service with
:55:00. > :55:03.half the money. I am struck that Emma Thomas there are quoted some
:55:04. > :55:08.numbers. I can quote numbers. 32 candidates will be filtered by the
:55:09. > :55:11.Liberal Democrats concurred with 48 by the Greens, 40 by Ukip. Like you
:55:12. > :55:15.have no councillors on Staffordshire Council at the moment you are
:55:16. > :55:20.starting from the lowest possible place with very few troops on the
:55:21. > :55:25.ground to rally round your campaign. The only way is up for the Liberal
:55:26. > :55:30.Democrats. You are talking about the figures and that number of three, if
:55:31. > :55:37.we take three seats from the Conservatives, that will change the
:55:38. > :55:40.game completely. People did vote some of their Liberal Democrat
:55:41. > :55:44.councillors out. I think they are probably regretting that decision
:55:45. > :55:48.now because when you talk about local politics and people on the
:55:49. > :55:52.ground, there is nobody more grassroots really down the Lib Dems
:55:53. > :55:57.to get stuck in to those bread and butter issues which are the ones
:55:58. > :55:59.people really care about. Particularly the Staffordshire in
:56:00. > :56:03.mind, would you be crunching the numbers in places like Burton,
:56:04. > :56:07.Tamworth, Staffordshire merlins, those places where Labour MPs have
:56:08. > :56:11.been in the past but are no longer. It has been really tough councillors
:56:12. > :56:15.in local Government in recent years. The grant from central Government
:56:16. > :56:18.has been cut hugely in places like Wolverhampton and the council has
:56:19. > :56:26.had to make an awful lot of cuts that have hit the local services.
:56:27. > :56:30.The council leader has been saying that he's been able to make it with
:56:31. > :56:33.things much lower... It has been really painful. The results on
:56:34. > :56:37.Thursday, people will see if there any straws in the wind, see if there
:56:38. > :56:40.is an indication. People always do that with local elections and I
:56:41. > :56:44.think, to come back to what I was seeing a little while ago, the
:56:45. > :56:47.realistic choice the general election is are we going to have a
:56:48. > :56:52.strong and credible opposition or are we going to have a complete
:56:53. > :56:55.blank check for the Conservatives to do what they want with a bigger
:56:56. > :56:58.majority not only on Brexit but on the health service, on public
:56:59. > :57:04.services and done everything else? I don't think that's good for the
:57:05. > :57:07.country. That is what Pat are suggesting. We need better
:57:08. > :57:14.efficiency in terms of spending patterns taxpayer's money. We need
:57:15. > :57:19.to not waste public money elsewhere. Will... There is a danger that local
:57:20. > :57:24.county councils and in deed district and local issues get squeezed out in
:57:25. > :57:29.elections is even more so now when there is a big election round the
:57:30. > :57:33.corner. I don't know, the Liberal Democrats are winning seats at
:57:34. > :57:36.by-elections all over the country. These are local county council seats
:57:37. > :57:43.and these are being fought on those and these are being fought on those
:57:44. > :57:46.important local issues. I don't necessarily agree with what you are
:57:47. > :57:51.saying. The electoral reform Society reported a few days ago that the
:57:52. > :57:53.West Midlands has the lowest proportion of voters turning out in
:57:54. > :57:57.elections generally across the period and that is the biggest worry
:57:58. > :58:02.for your party, isn't it? Stay at home Labour voters. Not just our
:58:03. > :58:06.party, all of us want to see people participating in elections. People
:58:07. > :58:08.fought hard for the vote. The thing about this election, as I say, is it
:58:09. > :58:14.is not necessary. This election is is not necessary. This election is
:58:15. > :58:17.being done because the Conservative Party wanted to cash in on an
:58:18. > :58:23.opinion poll. I do not think that is a good reason. A final point? I give
:58:24. > :58:28.the same point as I did earlier, Theresa May is re-establishing her
:58:29. > :58:29.mandate. Message received. Thank you very much for joining us today.
:58:30. > :58:32.Time now for our usual reminder of the rest of the developments
:58:33. > :58:37.60 Seconds is brought to us today by Nick Watson.
:58:38. > :58:40.Mike Wood returned to the Commons after falling ill with sepsis,
:58:41. > :58:46.At the final PMQs before the election, he said the condition
:58:47. > :58:52.It is good to be back, and to be honest,
:58:53. > :59:00.is hoping to make a comeback in Birmingham Yardley
:59:01. > :59:04.He lost the seat to Labour's Jess Phillips two years ago
:59:05. > :59:10.Redditch MP Karen Lumley is to stand down due to ill health
:59:11. > :59:14.She says it's been a huge honour to represent
:59:15. > :59:18.Organisers of the general election count in Birmingham are going
:59:19. > :59:24.The usual venues at the Barclaycard Arena and the ICC are
:59:25. > :59:31.quit as the Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs spokesman
:59:32. > :59:35.for Ukip in protest at what he calls the party's "misguided" policy
:59:36. > :59:42.And remember a few years back, Labour's former
:59:43. > :59:45.Foreign Secretary Jack Straw angered Muslim groups by saying
:59:46. > :59:52.Islamic face veils made community relations more difficult.
:59:53. > :59:58.They banned them in France. It is right? I don't think France is
:59:59. > :00:01.right. We should not ban these things. There are many seek
:00:02. > :00:05.constituents who are very concerned about the way France does it and I
:00:06. > :00:07.think that is wrong. I entirely agree. I think what France is doing
:00:08. > :00:12.is unpleasant especially when you My thanks to Pat McFadden
:00:13. > :00:14.and Mark Garnier. Finally from me,
:00:15. > :00:15.looking ahead to Friday, we'll bring you all the drama,
:00:16. > :00:18.as it unfolds, of those mayoral That's in Midlands Today, at
:00:19. > :00:22.1:30pm and 6:30pm here on BBC One. And plenty for us to talk about too
:00:23. > :00:25.on next weekend's Sunday Politics, when our studio guests
:00:26. > :00:28.will include the first-ever directly-elected
:00:29. > :00:31.Midlands Metro Mayor. This, though, is where
:00:32. > :00:39.we rejoin Andrew Neil. we will take the mandate that we
:00:40. > :00:51.want. To all three of you, thank you. Andrew, back to you.
:00:52. > :00:53.So, how will Thursday's local election results affect
:00:54. > :00:56.Who's winning the election ground war?
:00:57. > :00:58.And as he celebrates 100 days in the White House,
:00:59. > :01:15.We have the local elections, Metro elections in Liverpool, greater
:01:16. > :01:20.Birmingham, West Midlands, how will they play into the general election?
:01:21. > :01:25.Significantly, it is very unusual. People keep comparing this with the
:01:26. > :01:28.election in 83, not! Margaret Thatcher was nervous and to wait
:01:29. > :01:33.until after the local elections to call the election to see the result.
:01:34. > :01:38.We are getting these result in the middle of an election campaign so it
:01:39. > :01:42.will be important, whoever does badly will suffer a dent in
:01:43. > :01:47.confidence in terms of how they approach the election and we are
:01:48. > :01:51.also going to have mayoral figures as a reminder of another big
:01:52. > :01:55.difference with the 80s that however big, say, the Conservatives win in
:01:56. > :01:58.Westminster, there are now sectors of power in other parts of the
:01:59. > :02:04.United Kingdom which were not there in the 80s. One of the reasons
:02:05. > :02:09.niches that are rated in 83 was memories were still alive in
:02:10. > :02:13.political circles of 1970, Wilson saw the local election results and
:02:14. > :02:17.thought, I can win, he was told he would win by the Economist magazine,
:02:18. > :02:23.who had done the analysis, and of course he lost, so that is why she
:02:24. > :02:29.waited, Mrs May does not need to wait for that at all now, and on the
:02:30. > :02:32.Metro elections, the one she will be looking at is the West Midlands,
:02:33. > :02:36.that is the one that is a competition. I think she can really
:02:37. > :02:39.lose on Thursday in the local elections, governing parties are
:02:40. > :02:45.supposed to take effect again, losing lots of council seats. She is
:02:46. > :02:51.projected to put on 100 or so seats, Labour projected to lose around 200,
:02:52. > :02:54.the first time the main opposition party has shed seats since something
:02:55. > :02:57.like 83 so clearly the local elections give Mrs May great
:02:58. > :03:01.momentum going into the general election campaign but there is a
:03:02. > :03:05.downside in that, which is what we have already heard fighting about
:03:06. > :03:10.this morning, if it looks like it is going too well for the Tories, it
:03:11. > :03:13.says to voters, why bother turning up? Sushi comes up with totally
:03:14. > :03:16.unbelievable sound bites this morning that this is the most
:03:17. > :03:26.important general election in her lifetime. Really?! For her it is! It
:03:27. > :03:30.always is until the next one! I wonder if voter turnout is a
:03:31. > :03:36.problem? Tory voters are more likely to vote than Labour voters. If there
:03:37. > :03:40.is a sense that it is all over bar the shouting, the overall turnout
:03:41. > :03:44.will be low that Tory voters are still likely to turn out more than
:03:45. > :03:49.Labour voters so she would still win some. I don't think she needs to be
:03:50. > :03:53.too worried, I think there will be a significantly low turnout, even I am
:03:54. > :04:00.finding it hard to be that excited about this general election. Really,
:04:01. > :04:04.the policies, we have spent a lot of time talking about them today and we
:04:05. > :04:09.have to examine them, but all this is about is, do you want Theresa May
:04:10. > :04:13.or Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten? Those are the only question is,
:04:14. > :04:17.apart from possibly how strong do you feel about Brexit, that will be
:04:18. > :04:21.on the voters' minds. You may say that but I will not be put off from
:04:22. > :04:27.going through a list of policies that we have already had in the last
:04:28. > :04:36.24 hours. On the Conservatives, more powers to stop company bosses under
:04:37. > :04:41.pensions, of course Philip Green was in mind there. Labour has come up
:04:42. > :04:44.with quite a few policies, actually, give all work of equal rights,
:04:45. > :04:55.whether part-time or full-time, temporary or permanent. Ukip, scrap
:04:56. > :05:00.VAT or takeaway -- on takeaway food and end the BBC licence fee. The
:05:01. > :05:07.Liberal Democrats have come out posed to the runway at Heathrow. I
:05:08. > :05:15.thought I knew that already? Will any of these policies make a
:05:16. > :05:19.difference? They are all nice handy things that people quite liked but
:05:20. > :05:23.probably not, is the answer. They are an awful way away from polling
:05:24. > :05:28.day now for people to remember and latch onto. I don't think you make
:05:29. > :05:31.your mind up on small issues like Heathrow, unless you live in
:05:32. > :05:35.Richmond-upon-Thames, maybe, but the problem Labour have got with
:05:36. > :05:39.unfailing a lot of these retail type policies which, in themselves, are
:05:40. > :05:43.very popular, is no one will listen to them until they get over the
:05:44. > :05:48.leadership credibility issue. Jeremy Corbyn could the world on a stick,
:05:49. > :05:51.but if no one believes he can deliver it then he will not be
:05:52. > :05:54.listened to and he has not done much apart from a speech yesterday in
:05:55. > :05:58.which is claim to fame was getting arrested, I don't see how that would
:05:59. > :06:07.work for him getting to Number Ten. They are not making progress on it.
:06:08. > :06:10.Labour has rolled out a number of policies which, taken individually,
:06:11. > :06:15.would have certain traction in normal times, quite interesting
:06:16. > :06:18.ideas, this sense of unfairness, a feeling that ordinary workers have
:06:19. > :06:24.not done well out of the recovery, those who caused the crash have, 20
:06:25. > :06:27.points, I went through some of them earlier, putting aside they are not
:06:28. > :06:34.costed, we are assured they will be. The problem I suggest is not the
:06:35. > :06:38.costing but the cut through? Every election has a context which is
:06:39. > :06:42.determined by opinion polls, however sceptical we are these days, and if
:06:43. > :06:47.one party is way ahead it is difficult for the other party to
:06:48. > :06:51.appear relevant, because if people assume they are not going to win,
:06:52. > :06:58.even some of its own MPs are saying, we are not going to win this, so you
:06:59. > :07:02.can vote for us, it is very hard to get attention and relevance. Where I
:07:03. > :07:05.think all the parties are bad with their current leaders is framing
:07:06. > :07:12.arguments, so those policies you have highlighted makes sense. The
:07:13. > :07:16.best leaders are brilliant framers of an argument and neither Theresa
:07:17. > :07:23.Maynor Jeremy Corbyn R. They have been campaigning, their manifestos
:07:24. > :07:27.are not out yet, both sides have been telling us we have to wait for
:07:28. > :07:30.costings, but it has not stopped them campaigning. Let's remind you
:07:31. > :07:36.of where they have been and what they have been doing so far.
:07:37. > :07:39.Let's start with Jeremy Corbyn, his first official visit was in the
:07:40. > :07:45.ultra-marginal Conservative seat of Croydon Central where the MP Gavin
:07:46. > :07:50.Barwell has a lead of just 165. That is not the only Conservative seat he
:07:51. > :07:53.has visited, along the way he popped in on Bristol North West, a
:07:54. > :08:01.Conservative majority of nearly 5000. The Tory seat of Cardiff
:08:02. > :08:09.North, a lead of just over 2000, Warrington South, just over 2700,
:08:10. > :08:13.and Crewe and Nantwich, Tory majority of three and a half
:08:14. > :08:19.thousand. Yesterday he visited Bethnal greed and Bob, a Labour lead
:08:20. > :08:23.of 20 4000. Theresa May kicked off her campaign in Bolton, Labour
:08:24. > :08:28.majority of over 4000. On her way round the UK she had a comfy stop in
:08:29. > :08:33.her own maidenhead seat, where she is defending a majority of nearly
:08:34. > :08:37.30,000, before travelling to other Labour marginals including Dudley
:08:38. > :08:43.North, a Labour lead of 4000. Bridgend, a lead of just under 2004
:08:44. > :08:56.Labour, before becoming ambitious and visiting shadow minister Richard
:08:57. > :09:00.Bergen's Leeds East seat, which he won by over 12,500 votes. Yesterday
:09:01. > :09:02.she went north of the border to Aberdeenshire, where amongst other
:09:03. > :09:04.places she visited the SNP seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine,
:09:05. > :09:06.where the Tories would have to gain over 7000 votes to unseat the NP.
:09:07. > :09:14.What do you make of it all so far? It is remarkable she is doing these
:09:15. > :09:19.visits in Scotland. Past but even five years and the idea of a Tory
:09:20. > :09:22.Prime Minister going round Scotland would be utterly counter-productive,
:09:23. > :09:26.and actually they are ambitious for Scotland now under with Davidson, a
:09:27. > :09:29.prospect of multiple seats, and that would be a real genuine shift in
:09:30. > :09:39.Scottish politics, the likes of which we have not seen for 15 or 20
:09:40. > :09:44.years. If she gets that, that helps towards 100 seats, because if she
:09:45. > :09:49.wins ten in Scotland, it is effectively 20, the SNP lose ten,
:09:50. > :09:54.she gains ten, she wants to do that in the Midlands with Labour, and the
:09:55. > :09:57.North. To get the 100 majority, other than Scotland, she has to win
:09:58. > :10:04.Labour seats, that is all that is there. And clearly she has been
:10:05. > :10:06.told, it is obvious, that she has a chance of doing so, otherwise you
:10:07. > :10:12.don't go to these parts of the country in the first few days of the
:10:13. > :10:16.campaign. All logic points to her being able to pull it off as well.
:10:17. > :10:20.The opinion polls, the state of the Labour Party. The only qualification
:10:21. > :10:24.I have in this is that politics is so wild and free Braille at the
:10:25. > :10:33.moment, it doesn't feel like landslide to rain. That is true, it
:10:34. > :10:38.doesn't. It is early days, we haven't yet had the manifestos, the
:10:39. > :10:43.campaign is yet to gather momentum. It doesn't feel like landslide
:10:44. > :10:50.territory. I disagree, look at every single poll, the Tory lead is 10% in
:10:51. > :10:55.Wales, you can see her picking up 20 seat there. Put this together, I am
:10:56. > :11:00.told by the way she is going into traditional Labour heartland again
:11:01. > :11:07.tomorrow, the key is the Ukip vote. That will implode... Crumble towards
:11:08. > :11:22.Tories? If she can hoover that up and retain the Tory vote, she will
:11:23. > :11:22.have a majority of 150. I cannot let you go without
:11:23. > :11:23.reminding you that it is Donald Trump's 100 days. He's not making a
:11:24. > :11:25.lot of it now, this is what he said last night.
:11:26. > :11:28.We are just beginning in our fight to make America great again.
:11:29. > :11:38.Now, before we talk about my first 100 days, which has been very
:11:39. > :11:42.exciting and very productive, let's rate the media's 100 days.
:11:43. > :11:58.Because, as you know, they are a disgrace.
:11:59. > :12:04.There you go, still bashing the media, that was at a rally in
:12:05. > :12:09.Virginia, the 100 days was last night. He seems happier campaigning
:12:10. > :12:13.than running the country. You each have 20 seconds to give me your
:12:14. > :12:21.board on the first 100 days. Remarkable, he will not stop
:12:22. > :12:26.slagging off the media but America first has not meant America first in
:12:27. > :12:31.terms of national policy, he has reneges on what he said about Nato
:12:32. > :12:34.being obsolete. He is moving from the old right to the centre because
:12:35. > :12:42.that is where you get things done, he is a pragmatist, also is about's
:12:43. > :12:48.friend Nigel Parrott is no longer welcome, we read this morning!
:12:49. > :12:53.Allegedly! He loves campaigning but finds governing much more difficult.
:12:54. > :12:58.Who would have thought being president of the United States was a
:12:59. > :13:02.difficult job?! He loves rallies but being president and politics is a
:13:03. > :13:06.very difficult thing indeed. Thank you, there we go, Mr Trump's 100
:13:07. > :13:09.days, we will see what the next 100 brings.
:13:10. > :13:12.The Daily Politics is back on BBC Two after the bank holiday
:13:13. > :13:14.on Tuesday at midday, with all the latest
:13:15. > :13:18.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday
:13:19. > :13:28.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.