19/11/2017

0:00:34 > 0:00:36Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:36 > 0:00:37I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:37 > 0:00:40And this is your guide to all the big stories that

0:00:40 > 0:00:44are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.

0:00:44 > 0:00:47Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget

0:00:47 > 0:00:50on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,

0:00:50 > 0:00:52show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -

0:00:52 > 0:00:57but can he change the direction of the country and his government?

0:00:57 > 0:00:59Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has

0:00:59 > 0:01:01some advice of his own.

0:01:01 > 0:01:03He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit

0:01:03 > 0:01:07- he joins me live to explain why.

0:01:07 > 0:01:11The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

0:01:11 > 0:01:14with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking

0:01:14 > 0:01:16a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses

0:01:16 > 0:01:20about Brexit.

0:01:20 > 0:01:23And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,

0:01:23 > 0:01:25we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,

0:01:25 > 0:01:28finding out who people most trust with the economy -

0:01:28 > 0:01:29Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

0:01:31 > 0:01:32And in the Midlands:

0:01:32 > 0:01:33Yes, there's a Budget coming up.

0:01:33 > 0:01:34The Midland Metro?

0:01:34 > 0:01:35The Police?

0:01:35 > 0:01:37What should be in that famous briefcase for us here?

0:01:38 > 0:01:41Taxing questions in half an hour.

0:01:48 > 0:01:49All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:49 > 0:01:52And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised

0:01:52 > 0:01:56not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -

0:01:56 > 0:01:59although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -

0:01:59 > 0:02:02it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

0:02:02 > 0:02:05Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news

0:02:05 > 0:02:07this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's

0:02:07 > 0:02:09plenty of speculation about what might or not might be

0:02:09 > 0:02:12in Philip Hammond's Budget.

0:02:12 > 0:02:14The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,

0:02:14 > 0:02:18including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.

0:02:18 > 0:02:21He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,

0:02:21 > 0:02:24where he talks about plans to reach the target of building

0:02:24 > 0:02:27300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city

0:02:27 > 0:02:29the size of Leeds.

0:02:29 > 0:02:32That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal

0:02:32 > 0:02:34Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out

0:02:34 > 0:02:37a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.

0:02:37 > 0:02:40The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer

0:02:40 > 0:02:43a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.

0:02:43 > 0:02:46But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

0:02:46 > 0:02:49He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency

0:02:49 > 0:02:52budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.

0:02:52 > 0:02:55So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

0:02:55 > 0:02:58and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning

0:02:58 > 0:03:02on the Andrew Marr Show.

0:03:02 > 0:03:04I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,

0:03:04 > 0:03:07and we have to embrace the opportunities that

0:03:07 > 0:03:09a post-Brexit world will offer.

0:03:09 > 0:03:11They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,

0:03:11 > 0:03:15huge technological evolution.

0:03:15 > 0:03:18It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown

0:03:18 > 0:03:20time and time again that we're up for these challenges.

0:03:20 > 0:03:24For many people out there, this is a depression.

0:03:24 > 0:03:27We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.

0:03:27 > 0:03:29Nurses, for example.

0:03:29 > 0:03:32We've had people who are now...

0:03:32 > 0:03:361.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest

0:03:36 > 0:03:38country in the world.

0:03:38 > 0:03:45That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.

0:03:45 > 0:03:51We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,

0:03:51 > 0:03:55but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk

0:03:55 > 0:03:59to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to

0:03:59 > 0:04:04set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we

0:04:04 > 0:04:10expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor

0:04:10 > 0:04:13across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think

0:04:13 > 0:04:22we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A

0:04:22 > 0:04:25short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

0:04:25 > 0:04:30They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to

0:04:30 > 0:04:34capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on

0:04:34 > 0:04:40earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are

0:04:40 > 0:04:47good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,

0:04:47 > 0:04:52Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get

0:04:52 > 0:04:55anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory

0:04:55 > 0:05:04MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have

0:05:04 > 0:05:07seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting

0:05:07 > 0:05:12in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment

0:05:12 > 0:05:16for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical

0:05:16 > 0:05:21through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold

0:05:21 > 0:05:28ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their

0:05:28 > 0:05:32Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing

0:05:32 > 0:05:37something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for

0:05:37 > 0:05:41how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with

0:05:41 > 0:05:46everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation

0:05:46 > 0:05:51for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for

0:05:51 > 0:05:56economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the

0:05:56 > 0:06:00issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up

0:06:00 > 0:06:05with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they

0:06:05 > 0:06:09absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls

0:06:09 > 0:06:14apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from

0:06:14 > 0:06:17Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them

0:06:17 > 0:06:23something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different

0:06:23 > 0:06:26people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and

0:06:26 > 0:06:34dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical

0:06:34 > 0:06:43terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic

0:06:43 > 0:06:48cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if

0:06:48 > 0:06:54you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,

0:06:54 > 0:06:59if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be

0:06:59 > 0:07:04worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn

0:07:04 > 0:07:10on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,

0:07:10 > 0:07:14and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of

0:07:14 > 0:07:18probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in

0:07:18 > 0:07:23the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds

0:07:23 > 0:07:28impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the

0:07:28 > 0:07:33last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much

0:07:33 > 0:07:39can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it

0:07:39 > 0:07:45is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the

0:07:45 > 0:07:50party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,

0:07:50 > 0:07:59damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction

0:07:59 > 0:08:06in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high

0:08:06 > 0:08:11inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will

0:08:11 > 0:08:16probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will

0:08:16 > 0:08:21pick up on some of this later in the programme.

0:08:21 > 0:08:24Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

0:08:24 > 0:08:26he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised

0:08:26 > 0:08:28the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences

0:08:28 > 0:08:32of leaving the EU.

0:08:32 > 0:08:36Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty

0:08:36 > 0:08:45radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

0:08:45 > 0:08:50London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we

0:08:50 > 0:08:54will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to

0:08:54 > 0:08:58the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we

0:08:58 > 0:09:04have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It

0:09:04 > 0:09:08is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the

0:09:08 > 0:09:13modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,

0:09:13 > 0:09:17which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what

0:09:17 > 0:09:25would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.

0:09:25 > 0:09:30The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the

0:09:30 > 0:09:33classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free

0:09:33 > 0:09:38trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting

0:09:38 > 0:09:46a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you

0:09:46 > 0:09:51right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the

0:09:51 > 0:09:54Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on

0:09:54 > 0:09:59the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury

0:09:59 > 0:10:03have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the

0:10:03 > 0:10:07nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.

0:10:07 > 0:10:13These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the

0:10:13 > 0:10:19euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but

0:10:19 > 0:10:26it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

0:10:26 > 0:10:34who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the

0:10:34 > 0:10:38exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past

0:10:38 > 0:10:43doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the

0:10:43 > 0:10:47Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to

0:10:47 > 0:10:52you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its

0:10:52 > 0:10:58forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The

0:10:58 > 0:11:01short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most

0:11:01 > 0:11:07dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of

0:11:07 > 0:11:10political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the

0:11:10 > 0:11:15same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.

0:11:15 > 0:11:19You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,

0:11:19 > 0:11:24and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the

0:11:24 > 0:11:29Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an

0:11:29 > 0:11:35enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

0:11:35 > 0:11:40his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to

0:11:40 > 0:11:44the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to

0:11:44 > 0:11:51change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he

0:11:51 > 0:11:55is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very

0:11:55 > 0:12:00encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive

0:12:00 > 0:12:05approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very

0:12:05 > 0:12:12close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury

0:12:12 > 0:12:16and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an

0:12:16 > 0:12:20exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

0:12:20 > 0:12:25thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather

0:12:25 > 0:12:32than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in

0:12:32 > 0:12:36absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.

0:12:36 > 0:12:41When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has

0:12:41 > 0:12:47to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the

0:12:47 > 0:12:50referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been

0:12:50 > 0:12:55made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This

0:12:55 > 0:13:01only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that

0:13:01 > 0:13:08voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put

0:13:08 > 0:13:13£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the

0:13:13 > 0:13:19NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was

0:13:19 > 0:13:25won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on

0:13:25 > 0:13:29that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on

0:13:29 > 0:13:34implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The

0:13:34 > 0:13:38Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we

0:13:38 > 0:13:43understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU

0:13:43 > 0:13:46demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for

0:13:46 > 0:13:52things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the

0:13:52 > 0:13:59exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government

0:13:59 > 0:14:03will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,

0:14:03 > 0:14:08or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be

0:14:08 > 0:14:12part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to

0:14:12 > 0:14:18choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to

0:14:18 > 0:14:21choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive

0:14:21 > 0:14:25schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the

0:14:25 > 0:14:35government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?

0:14:35 > 0:14:40It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we

0:14:40 > 0:14:46left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the

0:14:46 > 0:14:52remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against

0:14:52 > 0:14:57paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would

0:14:57 > 0:15:05be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have

0:15:05 > 0:15:09new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal

0:15:09 > 0:15:12situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down

0:15:12 > 0:15:16on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face

0:15:16 > 0:15:20of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned

0:15:20 > 0:15:28if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50

0:15:28 > 0:15:38is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

0:15:38 > 0:15:42makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in

0:15:42 > 0:15:46same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of

0:15:46 > 0:15:51view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you

0:15:51 > 0:15:52would.

0:15:52 > 0:15:54We're joined in the studio by the former minister

0:15:54 > 0:15:55Stephen Hammond.

0:15:55 > 0:15:58He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member

0:15:58 > 0:16:01of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named

0:16:01 > 0:16:03as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph

0:16:03 > 0:16:05this week - lucky him.

0:16:05 > 0:16:11I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

0:16:11 > 0:16:19on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a

0:16:19 > 0:16:24rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it

0:16:24 > 0:16:30is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the

0:16:30 > 0:16:33negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we

0:16:33 > 0:16:40expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March

0:16:40 > 0:16:452019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do

0:16:45 > 0:16:50harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those

0:16:50 > 0:16:54negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a

0:16:54 > 0:16:58couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019

0:16:58 > 0:17:03and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing

0:17:03 > 0:17:10with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government

0:17:10 > 0:17:13said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the

0:17:13 > 0:17:19advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by

0:17:19 > 0:17:23somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

0:17:23 > 0:17:28be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You

0:17:28 > 0:17:31did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important

0:17:31 > 0:17:36that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to

0:17:36 > 0:17:41set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time

0:17:41 > 0:17:46available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal

0:17:46 > 0:17:52between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be

0:17:52 > 0:17:55interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British

0:17:55 > 0:18:01electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote

0:18:01 > 0:18:04to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we

0:18:04 > 0:18:08would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get

0:18:08 > 0:18:12through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:12 > 0:18:17completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I

0:18:17 > 0:18:21don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and

0:18:21 > 0:18:28getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to

0:18:28 > 0:18:30settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount

0:18:30 > 0:18:37that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:37 > 0:18:41for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick

0:18:41 > 0:18:47to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our

0:18:47 > 0:18:52liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:52 > 0:18:55billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of

0:18:55 > 0:18:59the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade

0:18:59 > 0:19:05deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

0:19:05 > 0:19:10that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're

0:19:10 > 0:19:17prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,

0:19:17 > 0:19:27that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The

0:19:27 > 0:19:30Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we

0:19:30 > 0:19:38don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:38 > 0:19:44about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal

0:19:44 > 0:19:48requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:48 > 0:19:51others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we

0:19:51 > 0:19:56shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:56 > 0:20:02said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has

0:20:02 > 0:20:10not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer

0:20:10 > 0:20:14would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

0:20:14 > 0:20:19suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But

0:20:19 > 0:20:24we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:24 > 0:20:30No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:30 > 0:20:35It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to

0:20:35 > 0:20:40secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the

0:20:40 > 0:20:46scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.

0:20:46 > 0:20:52You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some

0:20:52 > 0:20:58of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:58 > 0:21:03suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:21:03 > 0:21:10you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some

0:21:10 > 0:21:17flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:17 > 0:21:24drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:24 > 0:21:29the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:29 > 0:21:34view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:34 > 0:21:41the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:41 > 0:21:46Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think

0:21:46 > 0:21:51that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the

0:21:51 > 0:21:55economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:55 > 0:22:02price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:22:02 > 0:22:06biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:06 > 0:22:13in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in

0:22:13 > 0:22:21additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I

0:22:21 > 0:22:25think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling

0:22:25 > 0:22:31can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:31 > 0:22:38model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:38 > 0:22:44job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long

0:22:44 > 0:22:48economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of

0:22:48 > 0:22:52business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:52 > 0:22:58much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.

0:22:58 > 0:23:02There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:02 > 0:23:05individuals we want to stand together and support the best

0:23:05 > 0:23:10interests of the government.Thank you.

0:23:10 > 0:23:12Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:12 > 0:23:15to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:15 > 0:23:17free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:17 > 0:23:20He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'

0:23:20 > 0:23:24and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.

0:23:24 > 0:23:27Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:27 > 0:23:29of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.

0:23:29 > 0:23:31We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders

0:23:31 > 0:23:34she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.

0:23:34 > 0:23:38Here's her film.

0:23:44 > 0:23:47I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,

0:23:47 > 0:23:51and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,

0:23:51 > 0:23:55and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:55 > 0:24:00years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.

0:24:02 > 0:24:05I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful

0:24:05 > 0:24:08of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave

0:24:08 > 0:24:10the European Union because we thought the country would be

0:24:10 > 0:24:12better off outside.

0:24:12 > 0:24:16It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:16 > 0:24:19the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining

0:24:19 > 0:24:24the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany

0:24:24 > 0:24:26experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:26 > 0:24:28The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.

0:24:28 > 0:24:33But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:35 > 0:24:38Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:38 > 0:24:41Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:41 > 0:24:43Germany's extraordinary success is down to

0:24:43 > 0:24:47the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:47 > 0:24:52German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:52 > 0:24:58long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.

0:24:58 > 0:25:01Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:01 > 0:25:04are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want

0:25:04 > 0:25:11that to go away.

0:25:11 > 0:25:15German business is not given to making big political statements

0:25:15 > 0:25:18out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:18 > 0:25:21positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:21 > 0:25:24with the United Kingdom.

0:25:24 > 0:25:27BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,

0:25:27 > 0:25:32and exports just under 1 million cars annually.

0:25:32 > 0:25:36The UK is a vital market.

0:25:36 > 0:25:40What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:40 > 0:25:45because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,

0:25:45 > 0:25:49it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,

0:25:49 > 0:25:53but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,

0:25:53 > 0:25:56and what we need to see now is what is going to be

0:25:56 > 0:25:59the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:59 > 0:26:01what is going to be the requirements for people

0:26:01 > 0:26:04moving across the continent?

0:26:04 > 0:26:06Because all of these things are important to us today.

0:26:06 > 0:26:10And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.

0:26:10 > 0:26:12Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission

0:26:12 > 0:26:16is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be

0:26:16 > 0:26:18German business, German consumers and German employees

0:26:18 > 0:26:23who will suffer.

0:26:23 > 0:26:25TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete

0:26:25 > 0:26:27the first phase successfully.

0:26:27 > 0:26:30The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial

0:26:30 > 0:26:33consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.

0:26:33 > 0:26:36And then it's not a question of punishment payments.

0:26:36 > 0:26:39It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:39 > 0:26:43obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes

0:26:43 > 0:26:45a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,

0:26:45 > 0:26:55so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.

0:26:55 > 0:26:59It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:59 > 0:27:02Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:02 > 0:27:06but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:06 > 0:27:11have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.

0:27:11 > 0:27:15Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results

0:27:15 > 0:27:17both sides being able to trade together and work

0:27:17 > 0:27:24together post-Brexit.

0:27:24 > 0:27:25Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:25 > 0:27:27and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.

0:27:27 > 0:27:32Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:32 > 0:27:34then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:34 > 0:27:36the European Union and Germany?

0:27:36 > 0:27:38It's absolutely true.

0:27:38 > 0:27:41I think that this is about two things.

0:27:41 > 0:27:46One, about proving that free trade is possible

0:27:46 > 0:27:49between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.

0:27:49 > 0:27:52If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,

0:27:52 > 0:27:56then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?

0:27:56 > 0:28:01Number two is, I also believe the free trade,

0:28:01 > 0:28:05free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:05 > 0:28:08has chosen as the path into the future is a role

0:28:08 > 0:28:11model for Europe.

0:28:11 > 0:28:14The time has come both for the United Kingdom

0:28:14 > 0:28:16and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of

0:28:16 > 0:28:19deal we can achieve.

0:28:19 > 0:28:21Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:21 > 0:28:24As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:24 > 0:28:30we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.

0:28:30 > 0:28:33But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading

0:28:33 > 0:28:35economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,

0:28:35 > 0:28:41and that is German business.

0:28:41 > 0:28:43That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case

0:28:43 > 0:28:45and we'll be hearing from the opposite side

0:28:45 > 0:28:47of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:47 > 0:28:50Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:50 > 0:28:53He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up

0:28:53 > 0:28:55the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:55 > 0:28:57and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference

0:28:57 > 0:28:59he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:28:59 > 0:29:04Welcome both of you.

0:29:04 > 0:29:09We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German

0:29:09 > 0:29:14business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in

0:29:14 > 0:29:18their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:18 > 0:29:23said that defending the single market must be the priority for the

0:29:23 > 0:29:29EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:29 > 0:29:36states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after

0:29:36 > 0:29:40the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:40 > 0:29:48tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:48 > 0:29:52full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,

0:29:52 > 0:29:59that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:59 > 0:30:03of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the

0:30:03 > 0:30:11head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important

0:30:11 > 0:30:17as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:17 > 0:30:23the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second

0:30:23 > 0:30:27biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:27 > 0:30:34that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:34 > 0:30:38wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at

0:30:38 > 0:30:46the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:46 > 0:30:51side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:51 > 0:30:55thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:55 > 0:30:59good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a

0:30:59 > 0:31:04disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the

0:31:04 > 0:31:09delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:09 > 0:31:15us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80

0:31:15 > 0:31:20billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:20 > 0:31:24Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:24 > 0:31:30Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need

0:31:30 > 0:31:37them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:37 > 0:31:42be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:42 > 0:31:49end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:49 > 0:31:56deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:56 > 0:32:03there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,

0:32:03 > 0:32:08the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:08 > 0:32:11decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would

0:32:11 > 0:32:16have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the

0:32:16 > 0:32:21referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's

0:32:21 > 0:32:27interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic

0:32:27 > 0:32:34stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:34 > 0:32:47was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:47 > 0:32:52There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:52 > 0:32:57change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:57 > 0:33:01to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:01 > 0:33:08for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work

0:33:08 > 0:33:12together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You

0:33:12 > 0:33:18don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:18 > 0:33:24give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:24 > 0:33:30cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:30 > 0:33:35I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about

0:33:35 > 0:33:41what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:41 > 0:33:46democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:46 > 0:33:50its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:50 > 0:33:57to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to

0:33:57 > 0:34:01encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on

0:34:01 > 0:34:07the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we

0:34:07 > 0:34:11are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:11 > 0:34:16of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:16 > 0:34:21damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:21 > 0:34:27Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European

0:34:27 > 0:34:35Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:35 > 0:34:41minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:41 > 0:34:51just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:51 > 0:34:55either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision

0:34:55 > 0:35:01of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not

0:35:01 > 0:35:09stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:09 > 0:35:20Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:20 > 0:35:25Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving

0:35:25 > 0:35:29reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going

0:35:29 > 0:35:35on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of

0:35:35 > 0:35:41incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:41 > 0:35:48You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:48 > 0:35:52business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in

0:35:52 > 0:35:57place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will

0:35:57 > 0:36:00find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get

0:36:00 > 0:36:05those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the

0:36:05 > 0:36:09progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually

0:36:09 > 0:36:18encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:18 > 0:36:21out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:21 > 0:36:25time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:25 > 0:36:29people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:29 > 0:36:35still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.

0:36:35 > 0:36:43I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the

0:36:43 > 0:36:47incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept

0:36:47 > 0:36:52the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:52 > 0:36:57I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:57 > 0:37:02the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to

0:37:02 > 0:37:07change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:07 > 0:37:12to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at

0:37:12 > 0:37:21the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:21 > 0:37:27a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:27 > 0:37:33fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably

0:37:33 > 0:37:38spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:38 > 0:37:44the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want

0:37:44 > 0:37:50us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make

0:37:50 > 0:37:55it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:55 > 0:38:01want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of

0:38:01 > 0:38:08the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:08 > 0:38:14hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And

0:38:14 > 0:38:18they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.

0:38:18 > 0:38:21It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:21 > 0:38:23Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:23 > 0:38:26opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox

0:38:26 > 0:38:28asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:28 > 0:38:37the economy.

0:38:37 > 0:38:38Hello.

0:38:38 > 0:38:41Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.

0:38:41 > 0:38:43You can tell there's a Budget coming up.

0:38:43 > 0:38:45A steady procession of local MPs, from opposing parties,

0:38:45 > 0:38:48lining up together to tell the Chancellor what should

0:38:48 > 0:38:51be in it for us here.

0:38:51 > 0:38:52The Midland Metro.

0:38:52 > 0:38:53The Police.

0:38:53 > 0:38:56There's a lengthening wish-list of deserving cases.

0:38:56 > 0:38:57But who should pay?

0:38:57 > 0:38:58How?

0:38:58 > 0:39:01And how much?

0:39:01 > 0:39:05That's what I'll be asking Neena Gill, Labour MEP

0:39:05 > 0:39:07for the West Midlands, And Nadhim Zahawi, Conservative MP

0:39:08 > 0:39:16for Stratford-on-Avon.

0:39:16 > 0:39:19And I'll also be asking the elected "Metro Mayor" Andy Street

0:39:19 > 0:39:21if he thinks the Government's going cool on devolution,

0:39:21 > 0:39:26and on moving Channel 4 Television out of London.

0:39:26 > 0:39:30But we begin with a mutiny - not exactly on the high seas.

0:39:30 > 0:39:33But this is how the Daily Telegraph reported the rebellion by 15

0:39:33 > 0:39:35Conservative MPs at the start of the debate on the

0:39:35 > 0:39:38European Union Withdrawal Bill.

0:39:38 > 0:39:41They're against the Government's proposal to have the exact moment

0:39:41 > 0:39:47when Britain leaves the EU written into law.

0:39:47 > 0:39:49Stafford's MP Jeremy Lefroy is one of the so-called Tory mutineers

0:39:49 > 0:39:52on the receiving end of what some of them call "bullying tactics".

0:39:52 > 0:39:57Are they putting a marker down for further confrontations, I wonder?

0:39:57 > 0:40:01On the other side of the Tory divide, one veteran Eurosceptic,

0:40:01 > 0:40:03for so long a rebel himself, now finds himself

0:40:03 > 0:40:06supporting the Government.

0:40:06 > 0:40:08We have just had Remembrance Day.

0:40:08 > 0:40:12I just simply want people to reflect on the fact that, for one moment,

0:40:12 > 0:40:17they might just recall the fact that those millions of people

0:40:17 > 0:40:21who died in both world wars died for a reason -

0:40:21 > 0:40:28it was to do with sustaining the freedom and democracy of this House.

0:40:33 > 0:40:37Indeed, like Bill Cash, Nadhim Zahawi, you campaign for a leave

0:40:37 > 0:40:41vote in the referendum. Can you appreciate how people like Jeremy

0:40:41 > 0:40:50Lefroy and the others support this campaign of bullying?I campaign for

0:40:50 > 0:40:54Leave and in any negotiations there is always rhetoric and posturing.

0:40:54 > 0:40:58Your colleagues in the media, especially the print media, see

0:40:58 > 0:41:01themselves on the decline, they like the sensationalism. I don't agree

0:41:01 > 0:41:05with those headlines, I've been on Day on record to say that was unwise

0:41:05 > 0:41:10and wrong to print that headline. The ministers during that debate

0:41:10 > 0:41:13you've just showed a clip from actually came out and canned and

0:41:13 > 0:41:18that sort of language of mutiny on anyone. I was listening very

0:41:18 > 0:41:23carefully to Mike colleagues, Jeremy Lefroy and others who are very

0:41:23 > 0:41:28serious parliamentarians, representing their constituents,

0:41:28 > 0:41:30actually scrutinising legislation. That is the job of Parliament. That

0:41:30 > 0:41:35is not in any way division or trying to do the wrong thing. You do the

0:41:35 > 0:41:37right thing to scrutinise legislation, that's what our

0:41:37 > 0:41:40constituents expect from us. We may take different views but it is

0:41:40 > 0:41:43completely wrong for them to be bullied in any way or be put off

0:41:43 > 0:41:51from doing their job properly.Alan Patterson, a fellow Brexiteer, he

0:41:51 > 0:41:55says, what's the problem? MPs including labour MPs voted for

0:41:55 > 0:42:01Article 50 to be triggered and it specifies a clear timetable.We have

0:42:01 > 0:42:05a parliamentary democracy and we must actually respect the right of

0:42:05 > 0:42:12their was MPs to be able to question and to be able to put forward those

0:42:12 > 0:42:16views of either their constituents or their own. I'm very concerned

0:42:16 > 0:42:20about the way our society now seems to be closing down on there being

0:42:20 > 0:42:27any kind of dissent or to be able to say...There's apparently plenty of

0:42:27 > 0:42:30dissent in your party because we see on the front pages of the mail on

0:42:30 > 0:42:35Sunday reports of a heated argument involving the MP for

0:42:35 > 0:42:39Newcastle-under-Lyme, who Labour are investigating. He denies it but the

0:42:39 > 0:42:43timing at the end of the Brexit debate on Tuesday night suggests

0:42:43 > 0:42:48that divisions, including in your Shadow Cabinet.I would say it

0:42:48 > 0:42:53Labour has a plan and I can't comment on Paul Farrelly's situation

0:42:53 > 0:42:57because I don't know anything about it. I understand he's denying it,

0:42:57 > 0:43:02but the party's investigating. Until that's done, I can't really comment.

0:43:02 > 0:43:08We have a clear line that we will negotiate, we will have Brexit, but

0:43:08 > 0:43:13we would be much more clear about what we want. The problem we have

0:43:13 > 0:43:18with Brexit is that we have no strategy and no recognition that we

0:43:18 > 0:43:22are in a lose lose situation.We'll see how it pans out. We have to

0:43:22 > 0:43:24leave this at the moment.

0:43:24 > 0:43:27Coming six months into the first term in office of the directly

0:43:27 > 0:43:29elected Midlands "Metro Mayor", Wednesday's Budget is inevitably

0:43:29 > 0:43:30seen as an important test.

0:43:30 > 0:43:33Is the Government in general - and the Treasury in particular -

0:43:33 > 0:43:34delivering on that "Devolution Revolution" originally

0:43:34 > 0:43:37promised by George Osborne?

0:43:37 > 0:43:46From the Mayor himself, we've seen a relentless flurry of activity.

0:43:46 > 0:43:49Our aptly named political reporter, Rob Mayor, asks how much has

0:43:49 > 0:43:50actually been achieved.

0:43:50 > 0:43:52His report has flash photography from the start.

0:43:52 > 0:43:56Street, Andy, the Conservative Party candidate, is duly elected of Mayor

0:43:56 > 0:44:02of the West Midlands Combined Authority.

0:44:02 > 0:44:05It's been a busy six months for West Midlands mayor Andy Street

0:44:05 > 0:44:08since that surprise election win for the Conservatives in May.

0:44:08 > 0:44:11On a visit to Finland earlier this month, he saw a project which has

0:44:12 > 0:44:15seen homelessness cut by 43%.

0:44:15 > 0:44:18Altogether, I think, like, 500 apartments.

0:44:18 > 0:44:22And some people, they need a lot of care.

0:44:22 > 0:44:25He's hoping the cash to deliver it here will form part of a second

0:44:25 > 0:44:27devolution deal for his region.

0:44:27 > 0:44:30More news on that expected in the Budget on Wednesday.

0:44:30 > 0:44:33But with the government spending so much time on Brexit,

0:44:33 > 0:44:36some say promises of extra money which was supposed to come

0:44:36 > 0:44:40with an elected mayor have not been kept.

0:44:40 > 0:44:42There is a general feeling that the appetite for devolution's

0:44:42 > 0:44:47not as strong as it was under the previous coalition government,

0:44:47 > 0:44:52driven by Osborne - he handled the purse strings,

0:44:52 > 0:44:54he could drive things forward financially.

0:44:54 > 0:44:55It's not quite there with this government,

0:44:55 > 0:45:01so it makes the battle harder, but we have the determination.

0:45:06 > 0:45:10Top of the devolution Christmas list is more money for public transport

0:45:10 > 0:45:14and for adult education, but the West Midlands mayor

0:45:14 > 0:45:18Andy Street says it's extremely difficult to get any certainty

0:45:18 > 0:45:22on what the next devolution deal will look like.

0:45:22 > 0:45:24So is this all a sign that the government's commitment

0:45:24 > 0:45:28to devolution is running out of steam?

0:45:28 > 0:45:31The government is now spinning more plates than any government's

0:45:31 > 0:45:33had in living memory, and one of them is the mighty

0:45:33 > 0:45:37cauldron of Brexit and so it's not surprising that the government

0:45:37 > 0:45:40itself may be uncertain about what it's going to do,

0:45:40 > 0:45:43and this project may have just dropped down the agenda

0:45:43 > 0:45:45a little bit.

0:45:45 > 0:45:48It could all have a big impact on Mayor Street's manifesto promises

0:45:48 > 0:45:53of 25,000 new homes, zero youth unemployment,

0:45:53 > 0:45:56and implementing those measures to tackle homelessness.

0:45:56 > 0:46:00At a summit earlier this month, England's regional mayors called

0:46:00 > 0:46:06for more control over taxes instead of relying on government hand-outs.

0:46:06 > 0:46:09But could that be a hard sell with voters?

0:46:09 > 0:46:12My local councillor's literally got his own council office

0:46:12 > 0:46:15at Sutton Coldfield and I don't feel that the money's being spent wisely,

0:46:15 > 0:46:16and that's been devolved.

0:46:16 > 0:46:18As long as it's spent in your area.

0:46:18 > 0:46:21We come from the Black Country, so it could do with a bit

0:46:22 > 0:46:23of cash spent on it.

0:46:23 > 0:46:27Probably perhaps trust local politicians more than national ones

0:46:27 > 0:46:31because they should have their ear to the ground in terms

0:46:31 > 0:46:35of what people want locally.

0:46:35 > 0:46:37I still say I wouldn't want to pay any more.

0:46:37 > 0:46:38I think I pay enough.

0:46:38 > 0:46:41The Prime Minister has said she's absolutely committed to devolution.

0:46:41 > 0:46:45We'll get a strong sense of just how committed on Wednesday.

0:46:45 > 0:46:47Rob Mayor.

0:46:47 > 0:46:49So is the Government going cool on regional devolution?

0:46:49 > 0:46:50We'll know soon enough.

0:46:50 > 0:46:52For months we've been hearing confident predictions that

0:46:52 > 0:46:54Wednesday's Budget would deliver a second "Devo Deal"

0:46:54 > 0:46:56for the Midlands.

0:46:56 > 0:46:59Nadhim Zahawi is one of 30 MPs, from both main parties,

0:46:59 > 0:47:03who've signed a very pointed letter to Philip Hammond.

0:47:03 > 0:47:07Extending the Midland Metro to Brierley Hill, devolving powers

0:47:07 > 0:47:10over skills, supporting automotive and advanced digital industries,

0:47:10 > 0:47:15and piloting public sector projects on homelessness and mental health.

0:47:15 > 0:47:18These, they say, are among the key tests of whether or not

0:47:18 > 0:47:20the Government remains committed.

0:47:20 > 0:47:24When I caught up with Andy Street at the Skills Show in the NEC,

0:47:24 > 0:47:26I asked him if devolved local tax-raising powers were

0:47:26 > 0:47:28still on the agenda.

0:47:28 > 0:47:31To be really honest with you, Patrick, it is slow progress.

0:47:31 > 0:47:33I am expecting some further...

0:47:33 > 0:47:39There's technical points, really, about the borrowing powers

0:47:39 > 0:47:41of the combined authorities, things like that, next week.

0:47:41 > 0:47:44But in terms of, is there a real sea change to anything

0:47:44 > 0:47:46like a local income tax, local retention of VAT?

0:47:46 > 0:47:48That is just not on the agenda at the moment.

0:47:48 > 0:47:51So what, then, can we expect in the Budget?

0:47:51 > 0:47:54We are expecting, I think, a good amount of good news

0:47:54 > 0:47:56for the West Midlands next week.

0:47:56 > 0:47:59We've been lobbying for that and I'm waiting to see the outcomes.

0:47:59 > 0:48:01I don't know yet, to be absolutely clear.

0:48:01 > 0:48:04But we've lobbied very hard for the extension of the Metro

0:48:04 > 0:48:07through the Black Country.

0:48:07 > 0:48:10That's a substantial sum of money - many hundreds of millions of pounds.

0:48:10 > 0:48:13People have been talking about it for 12 years.

0:48:13 > 0:48:15I want us to absolutely get final confirmation because that would be

0:48:15 > 0:48:18a real opportunity for regeneration through the Black Country there.

0:48:18 > 0:48:20I'm also looking forward to investment and support for some

0:48:21 > 0:48:23of our leading industries.

0:48:23 > 0:48:25Autonomous vehicles, electric vehicle production,

0:48:25 > 0:48:27because we've said those new frontiers need to be made

0:48:27 > 0:48:32here in the West Midlands.

0:48:32 > 0:48:40Isn't the truth in all this that the Treasury, which some people

0:48:40 > 0:48:42think are sort of control freaks, and they're actually

0:48:42 > 0:48:44very reluctant to let go of the purse strings -

0:48:44 > 0:48:45devolution or not?

0:48:45 > 0:48:48I think what it indicates is that the commitment

0:48:48 > 0:48:50to devolution is still there, but it's not perhaps moving as fast

0:48:50 > 0:48:53as we hoped maybe two, three, four years ago,

0:48:53 > 0:48:56but we are making steady progress and what we will see next week

0:48:56 > 0:48:57is considerable investment in the West Midlands,

0:48:57 > 0:48:59or I believe we will see next week.

0:48:59 > 0:49:03And, actually, some of those points about how we are able to raise

0:49:03 > 0:49:05new cash ourselves in the future.

0:49:05 > 0:49:08It's not going to be tax-raising, but it'll be other methods

0:49:08 > 0:49:10that we can actually take more control of our own

0:49:10 > 0:49:12financial futures.

0:49:12 > 0:49:14I am expecting that still to be there.

0:49:14 > 0:49:17You very much nailed your colours to the relocation of Channel 4

0:49:17 > 0:49:21Television to the West Midlands, but I'm hearing suggestions that

0:49:21 > 0:49:25senior ministers have been cooling off this whole thing and that

0:49:25 > 0:49:27Channel 4 executives are more confident than ever

0:49:27 > 0:49:30that they won't actually have to leave London at all.

0:49:30 > 0:49:32There is no new news on this, Patrick.

0:49:32 > 0:49:35I wish there was, and of course I would tell you if there was,

0:49:35 > 0:49:38but the situation we've had is we've done our consultation, we have

0:49:38 > 0:49:41nailed the West Midlands colours very firmly to a major relocation.

0:49:41 > 0:49:43We've actually been waiting for the new chief executive

0:49:43 > 0:49:47of Channel 4 to come in and then the government to start the process.

0:49:47 > 0:49:53I'm absolutely clear, though, we've put a good bid forward,

0:49:53 > 0:49:55supported by the creative industries, political support

0:49:55 > 0:49:57across the spectrum, and I am confident that,

0:49:57 > 0:49:59if not a full relocation, there will certainly be

0:49:59 > 0:50:06a substantial relocation out of London.

0:50:06 > 0:50:13It seems to me, Nadhim is the thing about that letter is he felt the

0:50:13 > 0:50:16need to write it at all. It is a tacit admission that the government

0:50:16 > 0:50:20will call on devolution. Surely those contents really, until

0:50:20 > 0:50:24recently, would be seen as a statement of the obvious.Let's wait

0:50:24 > 0:50:28and see what is on the Budget on Wednesday. We have a news over the

0:50:28 > 0:50:31weekend, the Chancellor is in the region tomorrow trying out an

0:50:31 > 0:50:36autonomous car. He's already talking about further investment in electric

0:50:36 > 0:50:38infrastructure charging points and that can only be good for our region

0:50:38 > 0:50:43in terms of manufacturing and the development required in electric

0:50:43 > 0:50:50cars and autonomous vehicles, as well, which the Mayo just about. --

0:50:50 > 0:50:54which the Neena talked about. Andy Street is a really big voice for our

0:50:54 > 0:51:03region and when he asked, we all signed the letter.He's having to

0:51:03 > 0:51:07put local tax raising powers on the back burner. He admitted it.The

0:51:07 > 0:51:12progress he wants to make is to make sure the agenda he sets out, making

0:51:12 > 0:51:16sure there is no youth unemployment scored 25,000 homes, making sure the

0:51:16 > 0:51:20homeless agenda he stood on actually delivers. That can only be a good

0:51:20 > 0:51:25thing. The more decisions that brought locally, the people of

0:51:25 > 0:51:33Stratford-upon-Avon, my constituency, can interact with me.

0:51:33 > 0:51:36There are hints of investment in the Metro, the Digital economy,

0:51:36 > 0:51:43automotive. Much in the budget for you to welcome, surely.I totally

0:51:43 > 0:51:46support the region should get more powers and we should have more

0:51:46 > 0:51:51funding. Clearly, the region is in crisis because we've had so many

0:51:51 > 0:51:54cutbacks from this government and even in your area, Warwickshire,

0:51:54 > 0:51:57there's been real cutbacks in schools and nursery provisions which

0:51:57 > 0:52:08are impacting our economy in the long term. I would say about Andy

0:52:08 > 0:52:13Street, he has been talking up a lot. Where is the action? In six

0:52:13 > 0:52:16months, what has he actually delivered? One of the things he said

0:52:16 > 0:52:21is that he was going to tackle homelessness and yet we look at

0:52:21 > 0:52:23homelessness, it has increased. 10,000 people who are homeless in

0:52:23 > 0:52:29Birmingham alone.A tour of the studios this morning, talking about

0:52:29 > 0:52:34300,000 houses per year.I think Andy Street, rather than going to

0:52:34 > 0:52:38Finland, should go and speak to Whitehall and try and make sure that

0:52:38 > 0:52:44that money is addressed when we are facing a cold winter. Let's see what

0:52:44 > 0:52:52comes out.Andy is talking to Whitehall. He was very much part of

0:52:52 > 0:52:57the Metro mayors who came down and met Whitehall. The government is

0:52:57 > 0:53:02listening, it is open-minded about devolution. Let's wait and see what

0:53:02 > 0:53:10happens. Andy is really delivering for our region.I think you're

0:53:10 > 0:53:15allowed to question as to what is actually being delivered for the

0:53:15 > 0:53:21region. I'm not seeing any evidence. When I see homeless people now with

0:53:21 > 0:53:25the cold winter outside, 10,000 people sleeping outside should be of

0:53:25 > 0:53:29concern. We can't wait months for them to find shelter. They need to

0:53:29 > 0:53:38be addressed now. Under Labour's what we got rid of the homeless...

0:53:38 > 0:53:41It was rejected for billions of borrowing to go into housing.He

0:53:41 > 0:53:51committed to 300,000 which was an emblematic call.You've not

0:53:51 > 0:53:56delivered the 300,000. You only delivered 150000 and...You can't

0:53:56 > 0:54:03have a discussion talking across people.You can't throw figures that

0:54:03 > 0:54:06are not being delivered.We have to move on.

0:54:06 > 0:54:08Another subject of concern bringing MPs from opposing parties together

0:54:08 > 0:54:11in common cause is the continuing squeeze on police budgets.

0:54:11 > 0:54:13Time was when ministers could say that, even while savings

0:54:13 > 0:54:15were being introduced, crime was falling.

0:54:15 > 0:54:16Now, though, recorded crime is rising again,

0:54:16 > 0:54:19and the Government is being pressed to allow our biggest

0:54:19 > 0:54:21local force an increase in the money allocated to it,

0:54:21 > 0:54:23over and above the council tax.

0:54:23 > 0:54:24That's according to a leaked document seen

0:54:24 > 0:54:28by Kathryn Stanczyszyn.

0:54:28 > 0:54:30Police on the streets of the West Midlands,

0:54:30 > 0:54:32but there's now fewer of them than at any time in

0:54:32 > 0:54:33the force's history.

0:54:33 > 0:54:36The Police and Crime Commissioner says they need an extra £22 million

0:54:36 > 0:54:40just to stand still next year, and the government needs to act.

0:54:40 > 0:54:47There's cross-party accord on this now and I think the government need

0:54:47 > 0:54:49to recognise that if we don't get that proper funding in place,

0:54:49 > 0:54:53then we're putting people seriously at risk.

0:54:53 > 0:54:56What we need is consistent long-term funding so we can actually pay

0:54:56 > 0:54:59for the police we need to protect the people in our area.

0:54:59 > 0:55:02Since 2010, West Midlands Police has cut 2,000 officers -

0:55:02 > 0:55:04that's a 27% reduction.

0:55:04 > 0:55:08It comes as figures show that, in the last year, sexual

0:55:08 > 0:55:12offences rose by 25%, child sexual exploitation by 47%

0:55:12 > 0:55:15and gun crime by 15%.

0:55:15 > 0:55:18Last week, a cross-party group of MPs from the region lobbied

0:55:18 > 0:55:20the police Minister, Nick Hurd.

0:55:20 > 0:55:24The point we made in the meeting is that the West Midlands

0:55:24 > 0:55:27is one of five hotspots in the country for terrorism.

0:55:27 > 0:55:34It needs extra resources to tackle new types of crime and I felt we had

0:55:34 > 0:55:35a sympathetic hearing.

0:55:35 > 0:55:38With more than 80% of funding for the forces coming

0:55:38 > 0:55:43from Whitehall, local fundraising options are limited.

0:55:43 > 0:55:46But a leaked Budget document suggests that the government may

0:55:46 > 0:55:49allow the portion of council tax which funds the police to rise

0:55:49 > 0:55:50by up to £10 next year.

0:55:50 > 0:55:53There have also been calls for West Midlands Police to spend

0:55:53 > 0:56:03some of the £106 million it currently holds in its reserves.

0:56:03 > 0:56:07Isn't the key point in all this that the financial pressure that the

0:56:07 > 0:56:09government has applied to the police service since it came into office

0:56:09 > 0:56:14has delivered a lot of those partnerships and efficiencies? We

0:56:14 > 0:56:16seemed Warwickshire and West Messier working closely together, to the

0:56:16 > 0:56:23benefit of the police.I think it is of real concern that our police are

0:56:23 > 0:56:27being cut, as David Jamieson has indicated. It is important that we

0:56:27 > 0:56:31have more police on, especially when you've got an economy that's

0:56:31 > 0:56:36downward spiralling. You'll always find that police are needed, crime

0:56:36 > 0:56:41goes up even more so. There doesn't appear to be any strategy. It's just

0:56:41 > 0:56:46basically freeing everything and we need to make sure the funding is

0:56:46 > 0:56:52there. We cannot produce police if the money isn't there. The Tory

0:56:52 > 0:56:56government is in chaos. There is no strategy on economy or police....

0:56:56 > 0:57:02Who's worried about the West Midlands being a potential terrorist

0:57:02 > 0:57:07hotspot. You're own Chief Constable is worried about what he says is a

0:57:07 > 0:57:09£20 million additional cut over four years, not the 13 the government

0:57:09 > 0:57:14talks about in Warwickshire.I have represented from our Chief Constable

0:57:14 > 0:57:21and our police and crime commission. I have made representations to Nick

0:57:21 > 0:57:24Hurd, and Amber Road. It is important that we make sure we get

0:57:24 > 0:57:29this right and I'm lobbying to make sure they are listened to. I think

0:57:29 > 0:57:34it is good to examine whether the preset can be flexed to allow us on

0:57:34 > 0:57:41this. But when Nina is -- where Neena is wrong, we have to make sure

0:57:41 > 0:57:46we deliver the public services which people are asking us to do,

0:57:46 > 0:57:54including good policing. It has led to the cooperation between

0:57:54 > 0:57:59Warwickshire and West Neena.We have devalued pound, our economy is

0:57:59 > 0:58:01growing more slowly than anywhere in the EU and all indication that it's

0:58:01 > 0:58:06going to get worse rather than better.If I can bring you back to

0:58:06 > 0:58:11the question of the police.Because they're not managing the economy

0:58:11 > 0:58:15well means there isn't enough money to go around because there are so

0:58:15 > 0:58:19many demands on that money. We've discussed devolution earlier, the

0:58:19 > 0:58:24housing problem. It is quite clear that this Brexit issue, where there

0:58:24 > 0:58:29is no strategy, all the statements that were made that we were going to

0:58:29 > 0:58:34be better off economically... None of that is coming true so we're

0:58:34 > 0:58:38actually worse off and everything is being cut. I think it's really

0:58:38 > 0:58:41imported...Time is tight. Do you think the Chancellor is listening to

0:58:41 > 0:58:45this argument about the police on Wednesday?The Home Secretary is

0:58:45 > 0:58:49listening and I hope the Chancellor is, as well.Let's leave it there

0:58:49 > 0:58:52for the moment.

0:58:52 > 0:58:54Let's remind ourselves of some more of the political developments

0:58:54 > 0:58:56making the news here over the past few days.

0:58:56 > 0:59:00Our round up in 60 seconds is brought to us today by Sarah Bishop.

0:59:00 > 0:59:02The families of the Birmingham pub bombing victims have been refused

0:59:02 > 0:59:05legal aid to challenge a ruling that suspects shouldn't be

0:59:05 > 0:59:07named at a new inquest.

0:59:07 > 0:59:10The Ministry of Justice said the bid doesn't meet its criteria.

0:59:10 > 0:59:13The Transport Secretary said the Midlands can expect investment

0:59:13 > 0:59:15in public transport, skills and jobs in the Budget.

0:59:15 > 0:59:18Chris Grayling dropped the hints on a visit

0:59:18 > 0:59:21to the Skills Show at the NEC.

0:59:21 > 0:59:23The so-called "homes for a pound" scheme has been extended

0:59:23 > 0:59:24by the council in Stoke-on-Trent.

0:59:24 > 0:59:27The scheme allows home buyers to apply for cost loans

0:59:27 > 0:59:30to improve delapidated houses in run-down areas.

0:59:30 > 0:59:33You know, at 50-odd, who wants to take on a mortgage?

0:59:33 > 0:59:34You don't.

0:59:34 > 0:59:39So we've got the pound house and £298 a month is what we pay back

0:59:39 > 0:59:41for the 30,000 loan.

0:59:41 > 0:59:44Half a million subsidised bus services in Staffordshire

0:59:44 > 0:59:46are being cut.

0:59:46 > 0:59:55The council says it's just 3% of all journies.

0:59:55 > 0:59:57The council says it's just 3% of all journeys.

0:59:57 > 1:00:00And car-tax evasion has tripled since paper tax discs were scrapped,

1:00:00 > 1:00:07and it's worse in the West Midlands than anywhere else.

1:00:07 > 1:00:11Forget the Paradise papers, we got our own story of tax evasion is on

1:00:11 > 1:00:16the streets. Do you think it was a mistake to get rid of the tax discs?

1:00:16 > 1:00:19The mistake clearly is that you haven't put in place proper

1:00:19 > 1:00:23mechanisms to monitor it. We managed to do it with TV licence quite

1:00:23 > 1:00:26effectively. Surely the government should have put a structure in place

1:00:26 > 1:00:31to make sure that it is managed properly.Introducing new technology

1:00:31 > 1:00:35is a good thing. Anyone evading their car tax, I think, needs to

1:00:35 > 1:00:40think twice because as with any technology, as it gets better, it

1:00:40 > 1:00:44becomes almost impossible to avoid paying it. If you're not paying it,

1:00:44 > 1:00:50my advice is go and pay it or you will be in trouble. Technology is

1:00:50 > 1:00:53good and technology advance is good. The government has responsibility to

1:00:53 > 1:00:59make sure it when it introduces things that it is properly managed

1:00:59 > 1:01:05and implemented.Like the European Union?It is very well managed. This

1:01:05 > 1:01:10government, we have the Uighurs government...At they carry on the

1:01:10 > 1:01:12discussion...

1:01:12 > 1:01:14on Wednesday, we'll know exactly what Philip Hammond's briefcase has

1:01:14 > 1:01:16in store for us all here.

1:01:16 > 1:01:17Housing?

1:01:17 > 1:01:18Hospitals?

1:01:18 > 1:01:19Transport?

1:01:19 > 1:01:20All taxing questions of course.

1:01:20 > 1:01:22I'll be reporting, blogging and tweeting from Westminster

1:01:22 > 1:01:24throughout the day, including on Midlands Today at 1.30

1:01:24 > 1:01:25and 6.30, here on BBC One.

1:01:25 > 1:01:29This, though, is where we rejoin Sarah Smith.

1:01:38 > 1:01:40Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:40 > 1:01:43he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:43 > 1:01:46hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes

1:01:46 > 1:01:47of the public.

1:01:47 > 1:01:51But when it comes to the economy, do people trust

1:01:51 > 1:01:52the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:52 > 1:01:56Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.

1:01:56 > 1:02:04MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.

1:02:04 > 1:02:07All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out

1:02:07 > 1:02:10what he has been cooking up in his Budget.

1:02:10 > 1:02:13So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:13 > 1:02:16who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,

1:02:16 > 1:02:22Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:22 > 1:02:26No 7.

1:02:26 > 1:02:31Which one's Tory?

1:02:37 > 1:02:39I voted Conservative for the last two

1:02:39 > 1:02:43elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:43 > 1:02:46If I said to you which of these characters

1:02:46 > 1:02:48would you trust with the economy, what would you say?

1:02:48 > 1:02:50The one who's currently running it, because they

1:02:50 > 1:02:51seem to be bringing the deficit down.

1:02:51 > 1:02:52Labour.

1:02:52 > 1:02:54Why?

1:02:54 > 1:02:56Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:56 > 1:02:59For me, it's just about spending, public spending.

1:02:59 > 1:03:04Labour always overspend.

1:03:04 > 1:03:10John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:10 > 1:03:15and I think we need a radical re-think.

1:03:15 > 1:03:18Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:18 > 1:03:19No one.

1:03:19 > 1:03:21Why?

1:03:21 > 1:03:27Because they never come up trumps with anything that they

1:03:27 > 1:03:28reckon they're going to do.

1:03:28 > 1:03:30If I had to make you choose one of them?

1:03:30 > 1:03:32The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:32 > 1:03:34I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a

1:03:34 > 1:03:40bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:40 > 1:03:41Hello, Bob.

1:03:41 > 1:03:42Oh, hello.

1:03:42 > 1:03:43Who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:43 > 1:03:45Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:45 > 1:03:46Do you? Why's that?

1:03:46 > 1:03:49I just think they're better for the small businessman.

1:03:49 > 1:03:51We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,

1:03:51 > 1:03:54somebody in there with balls to say, right,

1:03:54 > 1:03:55that's the direction we are

1:03:55 > 1:03:57going in, that's what we are going to do.

1:03:57 > 1:04:00I've got balls!

1:04:00 > 1:04:01What are you doing?

1:04:01 > 1:04:08Putting balls in holes by the look of it!

1:04:08 > 1:04:11I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:11 > 1:04:13but I say that without a great deal of conviction.

1:04:13 > 1:04:16Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the

1:04:16 > 1:04:18streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:18 > 1:04:21Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money

1:04:21 > 1:04:27and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.

1:04:27 > 1:04:30I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it

1:04:30 > 1:04:34is clearing up time here at the diner and time

1:04:34 > 1:04:36to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:36 > 1:04:38Take it away, Tim.

1:04:38 > 1:04:40As you can say it was a close-run thing, but

1:04:40 > 1:04:43like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:43 > 1:04:50counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:50 > 1:04:53Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:53 > 1:04:55That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:55 > 1:04:58at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.

1:04:58 > 1:05:01But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view

1:05:01 > 1:05:03the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look

1:05:03 > 1:05:05at some recent polling.

1:05:05 > 1:05:08Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:08 > 1:05:11when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,

1:05:11 > 1:05:14when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many

1:05:14 > 1:05:16other areas.

1:05:16 > 1:05:19The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:19 > 1:05:21the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,

1:05:21 > 1:05:26although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:26 > 1:05:30And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:30 > 1:05:35showing that while the gap between Theresa May

1:05:35 > 1:05:38and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election

1:05:38 > 1:05:39period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,

1:05:39 > 1:05:41still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or

1:05:41 > 1:05:43even slightly ahead.

1:05:43 > 1:05:45And when it comes to how people intend to vote

1:05:45 > 1:05:47while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a

1:05:47 > 1:05:49big Labour lead yet.

1:05:49 > 1:05:51Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"

1:05:51 > 1:05:55inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:55 > 1:05:5810 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:58 > 1:06:02Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:02 > 1:06:04and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely

1:06:04 > 1:06:11wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?

1:06:11 > 1:06:19Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:19 > 1:06:24economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:24 > 1:06:30Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:30 > 1:06:33of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:33 > 1:06:39imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national

1:06:39 > 1:06:42security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:42 > 1:06:47circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:47 > 1:06:53for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:53 > 1:06:59and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We

1:06:59 > 1:07:05underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:05 > 1:07:10Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The

1:07:10 > 1:07:14government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:14 > 1:07:18resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:18 > 1:07:21people are having a really tough time and looking at the government

1:07:21 > 1:07:26to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems

1:07:26 > 1:07:33to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:33 > 1:07:38Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I

1:07:38 > 1:07:43think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:43 > 1:07:46Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they

1:07:46 > 1:07:52have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:52 > 1:07:58had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:58 > 1:08:05They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.

1:08:05 > 1:08:10Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:10 > 1:08:14build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think

1:08:14 > 1:08:20they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:20 > 1:08:25next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:25 > 1:08:29fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:29 > 1:08:33of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:33 > 1:08:37certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very

1:08:37 > 1:08:43well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I

1:08:43 > 1:08:48am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:48 > 1:08:55that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:55 > 1:09:03Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:09:03 > 1:09:06Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:06 > 1:09:12to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:12 > 1:09:16despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:16 > 1:09:23the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have

1:09:23 > 1:09:29just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that

1:09:29 > 1:09:33Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:33 > 1:09:40Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:40 > 1:09:46people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have

1:09:46 > 1:09:51to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context

1:09:51 > 1:09:58of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:58 > 1:10:09unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,

1:10:09 > 1:10:14unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that

1:10:14 > 1:10:19against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think

1:10:19 > 1:10:23about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:23 > 1:10:26they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they

1:10:26 > 1:10:31have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:31 > 1:10:38a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:38 > 1:10:42this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be

1:10:42 > 1:10:47talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:47 > 1:10:50you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:50 > 1:10:56the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:56 > 1:11:00ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:11:00 > 1:11:04They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they

1:11:04 > 1:11:09offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December

1:11:09 > 1:11:13council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:13 > 1:11:18conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get

1:11:18 > 1:11:23that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:23 > 1:11:26revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:26 > 1:11:36more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:36 > 1:11:41as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:41 > 1:11:49keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:49 > 1:11:55Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested

1:11:55 > 1:12:02that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's

1:12:02 > 1:12:06another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime

1:12:06 > 1:12:11Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:11 > 1:12:15strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where

1:12:15 > 1:12:21we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:21 > 1:12:25European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on

1:12:25 > 1:12:38it until we are satisfied with the next

1:12:44 > 1:12:47stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:47 > 1:12:49could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that

1:12:49 > 1:12:52might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:52 > 1:12:54not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the

1:12:54 > 1:12:57astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:57 > 1:13:01going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the

1:13:01 > 1:13:05negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in

1:13:05 > 1:13:08terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will

1:13:08 > 1:13:14look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,

1:13:14 > 1:13:20but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:20 > 1:13:23Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each

1:13:23 > 1:13:28other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.

1:13:28 > 1:13:29That's all for today.

1:13:29 > 1:13:32Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:32 > 1:13:35Until then, bye bye.