:00:39. > :00:45.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:46. > :00:49.morning cheer, if you are an MP that is. You are set to get an 1%
:00:50. > :00:55.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:56. > :01:00.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:01. > :01:06.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:07. > :01:12.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:13. > :01:16.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:17. > :01:25.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:26. > :01:32.His wife does the shopping so just how in touch with high street
:01:33. > :01:43.had on the capital, its politics and those who met him.
:01:44. > :01:50.With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if
:01:51. > :01:53.they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no
:01:54. > :01:56.pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device
:01:57. > :02:02.throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there
:02:03. > :02:06.internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't
:02:07. > :02:11.hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last
:02:12. > :02:14.week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst
:02:15. > :02:18.tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be
:02:19. > :02:23.evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the
:02:24. > :02:29.small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways his
:02:30. > :02:37.takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer
:02:38. > :02:49.It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn
:02:50. > :02:52.Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when
:02:53. > :02:55.the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the
:02:56. > :03:00.economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:01. > :03:01.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted A
:03:02. > :03:10.lot better. Britain is currently growing faster
:03:11. > :03:17.than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which
:03:18. > :03:23.is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this
:03:24. > :03:27.Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that
:03:28. > :03:31.borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down
:03:32. > :03:34.significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good
:03:35. > :03:40.numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in
:03:41. > :03:44.giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower
:03:45. > :03:52.borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British
:03:53. > :03:55.people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to
:03:56. > :04:01.government departments. The state pension age will increase in the
:04:02. > :04:07.2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like
:04:08. > :04:10.discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for
:04:11. > :04:15.infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below
:04:16. > :04:17.that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while
:04:18. > :04:26.for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a
:04:27. > :04:29.long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help
:04:30. > :04:34.those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to
:04:35. > :04:39.higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't
:04:40. > :04:44.remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,
:04:45. > :04:47.but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,
:04:48. > :04:51.a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the
:04:52. > :05:01.generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash
:05:02. > :05:05.with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his
:05:06. > :05:11.response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed
:05:12. > :05:15.Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.
:05:16. > :05:19.There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.
:05:20. > :05:27.He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on
:05:28. > :05:30.the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a
:05:31. > :05:35.mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.
:05:36. > :05:42.Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the
:05:43. > :05:45.all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher
:05:46. > :05:49.extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of
:05:50. > :05:52.course it means that things are significantly better this year and
:05:53. > :05:56.next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got
:05:57. > :06:00.to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures
:06:01. > :06:08.a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The
:06:09. > :06:11.reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the
:06:12. > :06:15.long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more
:06:16. > :06:19.growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of
:06:20. > :06:23.the growth we will expect in the years after the next general
:06:24. > :06:27.election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has
:06:28. > :06:35.definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague
:06:36. > :06:39.Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the
:06:40. > :06:47.viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is
:06:48. > :06:52.very worrying. Was this a watershed for George
:06:53. > :06:56.Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that
:06:57. > :07:00.it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are
:07:01. > :07:04.spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George
:07:05. > :07:09.Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about
:07:10. > :07:14.growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the
:07:15. > :07:17.next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But
:07:18. > :07:21.don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it
:07:22. > :07:30.all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.
:07:31. > :07:33.I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably
:07:34. > :07:40.a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his
:07:41. > :07:47.effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as
:07:48. > :07:49.well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech
:07:50. > :07:53.impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The
:07:54. > :07:58.takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people
:07:59. > :08:01.are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front
:08:02. > :08:06.bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be
:08:07. > :08:10.easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went
:08:11. > :08:15.through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the
:08:16. > :08:23.wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.
:08:24. > :08:30.It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and
:08:31. > :08:35.he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like
:08:36. > :08:41.business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price
:08:42. > :08:45.freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you
:08:46. > :08:50.say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,
:08:51. > :08:54.it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not
:08:55. > :08:58.Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed
:08:59. > :09:01.Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to
:09:02. > :09:05.disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little
:09:06. > :09:08.bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he
:09:09. > :09:13.went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,
:09:14. > :09:16.Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his
:09:17. > :09:23.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:24. > :09:28.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:29. > :09:39.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:40. > :09:44.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:45. > :09:51.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:52. > :09:58.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:09:59. > :10:08.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:09. > :10:14.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:15. > :10:20.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:21. > :10:23.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:24. > :10:29.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:30. > :10:32.Osborne has a superior argument I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:33. > :10:36.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:37. > :10:39.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:40. > :10:45.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:46. > :10:47.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:48. > :10:53.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:54. > :10:57.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,
:10:58. > :11:06.unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the
:11:07. > :11:11.Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't
:11:12. > :11:16.use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,
:11:17. > :11:21.speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not
:11:22. > :11:24.sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what
:11:25. > :11:28.we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of
:11:29. > :11:34.quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling
:11:35. > :11:40.public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The
:11:41. > :11:51.rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never
:11:52. > :11:56.given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I
:11:57. > :12:00.don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed
:12:01. > :12:04.Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,
:12:05. > :12:09.it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about
:12:10. > :12:12.what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are
:12:13. > :12:17.being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have
:12:18. > :12:23.had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does
:12:24. > :12:29.Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall
:12:30. > :12:32.strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the
:12:33. > :12:37.fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?
:12:38. > :12:40.A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we
:12:41. > :12:44.were doing the Autumn Statement If you are going to deal with the cost
:12:45. > :12:48.of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our
:12:49. > :12:52.society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure We
:12:53. > :12:56.believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some
:12:57. > :13:04.of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business
:13:05. > :13:13.lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big
:13:14. > :13:16.structural reforms that we need Ultimately, the public are concerned
:13:17. > :13:21.about the cost of living crisis That has got to be childcare help, a
:13:22. > :13:25.10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which
:13:26. > :13:31.still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you
:13:32. > :13:36.supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the
:13:37. > :13:40.Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and
:13:41. > :13:45.it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.
:13:46. > :13:51.The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in
:13:52. > :13:55.the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have
:13:56. > :14:01.a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension
:14:02. > :14:04.benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as
:14:05. > :14:10.we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are
:14:11. > :14:13.talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about
:14:14. > :14:16.pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living
:14:17. > :14:21.longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you
:14:22. > :14:27.what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for
:14:28. > :14:30.pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to
:14:31. > :14:34.announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude
:14:35. > :14:38.pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension
:14:39. > :14:44.spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,
:14:45. > :14:47.exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious
:14:48. > :14:53.welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year
:14:54. > :14:58.period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of
:14:59. > :15:06.that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What
:15:07. > :15:11.is the longer term? If you win 015? We want to stick with the triple
:15:12. > :15:15.lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their
:15:16. > :15:19.short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the
:15:20. > :15:25.winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of
:15:26. > :15:28.benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state
:15:29. > :15:35.pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30 40
:15:36. > :15:45.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:46. > :15:48.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:49. > :15:52.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:53. > :15:55.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:56. > :16:03.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:04. > :16:08.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long term
:16:09. > :16:16.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven t
:16:17. > :16:21.seen the proposition the Government has put before us.
:16:22. > :16:32.You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true
:16:33. > :16:36.when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation
:16:37. > :16:42.does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax
:16:43. > :16:47.threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the
:16:48. > :16:50.freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit
:16:51. > :16:56.changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they
:16:57. > :17:04.could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors The
:17:05. > :17:10.VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My
:17:11. > :17:16.understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?8 1
:17:17. > :17:23.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:24. > :17:27.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:28. > :17:33.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:34. > :17:39.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:40. > :17:44.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:45. > :17:48.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:49. > :17:51.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:52. > :17:54.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:55. > :18:03.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:04. > :18:09.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:10. > :18:13.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:14. > :18:19.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:20. > :18:26.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:27. > :18:34.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:35. > :18:40.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn t
:18:41. > :18:45.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:46. > :18:49.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:50. > :18:54.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:55. > :19:05.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:19:06. > :19:10.projections work at for those - for both business investment and
:19:11. > :19:16.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:17. > :19:20.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:21. > :19:24.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:25. > :19:30.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:31. > :19:34.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:35. > :19:43.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:44. > :19:49.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:50. > :19:55.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:56. > :20:02.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:03. > :20:07.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:08. > :20:15.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:16. > :20:19.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:20. > :20:23.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:24. > :20:28.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:29. > :20:33.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:34. > :20:41.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:42. > :20:46.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:47. > :20:54.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:55. > :21:00.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:01. > :21:05.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:06. > :21:11.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:12. > :21:15.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:16. > :21:23.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:24. > :21:26.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:27. > :21:31.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed
:21:32. > :21:37.Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in
:21:38. > :21:47.recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 3 %.
:21:48. > :21:53.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:54. > :21:59.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:22:00. > :22:03.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:04. > :22:11.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:12. > :22:19.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:20. > :22:23.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:24. > :22:29.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:30. > :22:33.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:34. > :22:40.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:41. > :22:44.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:45. > :23:27.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:28. > :23:38.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:39. > :23:52.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:53. > :23:57.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:58. > :24:05.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:06. > :24:17.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:18. > :24:23.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:24. > :24:29.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:30. > :24:33.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:34. > :24:43.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:44. > :24:49.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:50. > :24:53.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:54. > :25:00.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:01. > :25:05.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:06. > :25:10.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:11. > :25:16.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:17. > :25:23.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:24. > :25:28.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:29. > :25:32.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:33. > :25:40.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:41. > :25:45.people will be. Compared to 201 . Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This
:25:46. > :25:51.is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education
:25:52. > :25:55.Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always
:25:56. > :25:58.up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education
:25:59. > :26:05.then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't
:26:06. > :26:08.stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,
:26:09. > :26:11.Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform
:26:12. > :26:18.education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion
:26:19. > :26:23.for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's
:26:24. > :26:25.now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further
:26:26. > :26:32.creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 1 4
:26:33. > :26:35.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:36. > :26:38.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:39. > :26:41.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:42. > :26:46.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:47. > :26:53.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms
:26:54. > :26:57.didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace
:26:58. > :27:00.A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these
:27:01. > :27:06.reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of
:27:07. > :27:09.making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief
:27:10. > :27:13.Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins
:27:14. > :27:19.me now. Over the past 15 years, we have
:27:20. > :27:22.doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By
:27:23. > :27:28.international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year
:27:29. > :27:38.that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were
:27:39. > :27:44.coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we
:27:45. > :27:49.removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is
:27:50. > :27:52.now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which
:27:53. > :27:58.to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say
:27:59. > :28:04.this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually
:28:05. > :28:08.improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International
:28:09. > :28:14.comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,
:28:15. > :28:18.including science. For 20 years our domestic exam results just got
:28:19. > :28:23.better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the
:28:24. > :28:29.educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question
:28:30. > :28:35.there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in
:28:36. > :28:39.examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.
:28:40. > :28:49.Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.
:28:50. > :28:52.Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It
:28:53. > :28:58.might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,
:28:59. > :29:06.I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.
:29:07. > :29:12.The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping
:29:13. > :29:17.down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,
:29:18. > :29:23.designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.
:29:24. > :29:26.This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a
:29:27. > :29:32.remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading
:29:33. > :29:37.structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers
:29:38. > :29:41.coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The
:29:42. > :29:44.big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is
:29:45. > :29:51.maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.
:29:52. > :29:57.These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a
:29:58. > :30:03.year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we
:30:04. > :30:08.upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make
:30:09. > :30:11.sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on
:30:12. > :30:15.similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going
:30:16. > :30:20.to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even
:30:21. > :30:26.worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The
:30:27. > :30:30.secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who
:30:31. > :30:35.has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources you
:30:36. > :30:38.hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the
:30:39. > :30:45.classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you
:30:46. > :30:49.allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education
:30:50. > :30:53.in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.
:30:54. > :30:56.You have got to actually empower those people that make the
:30:57. > :31:02.difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot
:31:03. > :31:05.of money moving what were local authority schools to become
:31:06. > :31:08.academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the
:31:09. > :31:13.academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school
:31:14. > :31:18.is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that
:31:19. > :31:21.they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?
:31:22. > :31:26.Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are
:31:27. > :31:30.early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce
:31:31. > :31:34.the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst
:31:35. > :31:37.schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most
:31:38. > :31:44.disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?
:31:45. > :31:51.They are doing GCSE equivalents the lass academic subjects question my
:31:52. > :31:55.cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look
:31:56. > :32:08.at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of
:32:09. > :32:11.teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally
:32:12. > :32:15.develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get
:32:16. > :32:18.them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same
:32:19. > :32:25.if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just
:32:26. > :32:29.a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian
:32:30. > :32:31.countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most
:32:32. > :32:36.important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.
:32:37. > :32:43.We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We
:32:44. > :32:47.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It s no
:32:48. > :32:52.good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part
:32:53. > :32:58.of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor
:32:59. > :33:02.leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being
:33:03. > :33:07.put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.
:33:08. > :33:12.Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than
:33:13. > :33:15.independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.
:33:16. > :33:20.I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association
:33:21. > :33:24.of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT
:33:25. > :33:29.has called for your resignation Another wants to abolish or
:33:30. > :33:34.Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If
:33:35. > :33:40.we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will
:33:41. > :33:43.carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We
:33:44. > :33:48.will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools
:33:49. > :33:52.and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we
:33:53. > :33:54.think they are going wrong. Many people in the education
:33:55. > :33:57.establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government s
:33:58. > :34:04.bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.
:34:05. > :34:09.You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people
:34:10. > :34:13.that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what
:34:14. > :34:17.is necessary to raise standards I am a big supporter of autonomy in
:34:18. > :34:27.the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free
:34:28. > :34:31.schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence
:34:32. > :34:36.that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you
:34:37. > :34:40.and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,
:34:41. > :34:45.can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be
:34:46. > :34:48.in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue
:34:49. > :34:51.of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified
:34:52. > :35:00.teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in
:35:01. > :35:03.three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good
:35:04. > :35:08.enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a
:35:09. > :35:11.headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot
:35:12. > :35:15.get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as
:35:16. > :35:18.soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:19. > :35:25.support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I
:35:26. > :35:28.could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I
:35:29. > :35:31.thought somebody straight from university, without qualified
:35:32. > :35:35.teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I
:35:36. > :35:39.would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if
:35:40. > :35:43.they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more
:35:44. > :35:48.autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools
:35:49. > :35:53.academies, don't you have to do .. New entrants will be coming into the
:35:54. > :36:00.market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly
:36:01. > :36:03.when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is
:36:04. > :36:08.clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?
:36:09. > :36:11.Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is
:36:12. > :36:14.something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be
:36:15. > :36:18.in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or
:36:19. > :36:25.underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors
:36:26. > :36:28.stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a
:36:29. > :36:32.school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:33. > :36:36.should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of
:36:37. > :36:43.schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough
:36:44. > :36:50.job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.
:36:51. > :36:53.Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.
:36:54. > :36:54.Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us And
:36:55. > :37:12.we Welcome. Coming up in our last
:37:13. > :37:16.programme before Christmas, with the cost of living dominating the
:37:17. > :37:20.political agenda, we take an investment fund manager turned MP in
:37:21. > :37:26.a trip around the shops in his own constituency. Man man admits his
:37:27. > :37:29.wife buys the grocery but should it matter whether your local politician
:37:30. > :37:35.knows the price of bananas? `` Jacob Rees`Mogg. We will be testing these
:37:36. > :37:40.politicians whether they know the cost of living. They are Labour s
:37:41. > :37:46.Dawn Primarolo, James Gray and Stephen Williams. First, he was a
:37:47. > :37:49.man respected about around the globe. Nelson Mandela and his legacy
:37:50. > :37:53.touched millions of people, including many living in the West
:37:54. > :37:59.Country. One of them is Rob Witchell, who is a poet in Bristol
:38:00. > :38:02.and the development worker for the Bristol Forum. He has written this
:38:03. > :38:08.born just for us about why he will be remembered by the young and old
:38:09. > :38:15.for generations to come. Mandela, why did you have to die?
:38:16. > :38:22.We held you in the place we hoped he would live for ever.
:38:23. > :38:28.Passing piece, Madiba. Goodbye, father.
:38:29. > :38:34.With Gandhi, was keen on why they call your name. When asked, who is
:38:35. > :38:39.your hero? In Bristol, we know your name but
:38:40. > :38:49.not what he stood for, we, from Bristol, British and more so
:38:50. > :38:53.Mandela, man, you confuse us. Communist? National Trust?
:38:54. > :39:00.Socialist. Our government had you down as terrorist.
:39:01. > :39:03.With that sole person from this life, there is the most powerful
:39:04. > :39:12.remember that you were mortal, like the rest of us. From Johannesburg to
:39:13. > :39:18.Kingswood, from Cape Town to Kingston. We have no excuse to sit
:39:19. > :39:23.back. With our model of hero. With all the contradiction. No reason to
:39:24. > :39:29.stand back and wait for our own perfection. No option but to stand
:39:30. > :39:34.up and for yourselves to freeze human conviction. Like Mandela,
:39:35. > :39:40.Madiba, goodbye. Don, you have actually met Nelson
:39:41. > :39:45.Mandela. What are your thoughts about? I would just want to see what
:39:46. > :39:56.fantastic poem I thought that was. I was very privileged. I met him twice
:39:57. > :40:00.briefly for a long period. It was at the Finance Ministers when Gordon
:40:01. > :40:06.Brown and Tony Blair were putting together the finance package for
:40:07. > :40:12.edited African Nations Cup and Nelson Mandela came to lobby and
:40:13. > :40:21.support the plan that was being proposed. `` for African nations
:40:22. > :40:24.which were ended. What can you say about somebody who has been defining
:40:25. > :40:32.politics for generations about the struggle in South Africa? And yet he
:40:33. > :40:37.did it with such grace, intelligence but always that twinkle in his eye
:40:38. > :40:41.and that little bit of humour. He had a lovely way about him. I think
:40:42. > :40:47.all of us as politicians wish that had we suffered as much as he had
:40:48. > :40:53.and then be released after 27 years we would be as well as he did to .
:40:54. > :41:02.And to leave South Africa to be the fabulous nation it is. What do you
:41:03. > :41:06.gauge Nelson Mandela's impact on the quality issues in the West Country?
:41:07. > :41:08.I think he is a Ousely and inspiration to many people. All
:41:09. > :41:15.primary schools to visit across the West, the most diverse,
:41:16. > :41:19.multicultural constituency in the south`west of England. They will all
:41:20. > :41:26.have pictures of him alongside others to inspire the children. He
:41:27. > :41:34.was inspirational to my generation has stopped I am very envious of
:41:35. > :41:40.Dawn. When I was getting political myself in the 1980s, I used to go on
:41:41. > :41:43.anti`apartheid demonstrations against Thatcher and it takes me a
:41:44. > :41:50.little but, perhaps. He inspired many people in this country. The
:41:51. > :41:53.left as well as the right? He was a grainy died very great man.
:41:54. > :41:57.Knowledge fire him and shall miss them. The thing I admire most is
:41:58. > :42:03.that when he came out of prison he could have attacked the people who
:42:04. > :42:10.locked him up but he let bygones be bygones. `` he was a very great man.
:42:11. > :42:15.We all admire him and shall miss him. I think everybody shall agree
:42:16. > :42:21.with that. The outcome of the next general election will hinge on
:42:22. > :42:24.places like Swindon. Whichever party wins in Swindon usually wins the
:42:25. > :42:27.Government. The town was badly hit by the recession but appears to be
:42:28. > :42:33.enjoying a good recovery. What does that mean for Labour in 2015? This
:42:34. > :42:39.report does contain some flash photography.
:42:40. > :42:43.He wants to paint the town red. Ed Balls rolled up his sleeves as he
:42:44. > :42:48.came campaigning in Swindon. He has regularly rubbed shoulders with
:42:49. > :42:52.Labour's candidates here and visited before all out cancellations last
:42:53. > :42:58.year, which saw the Reds just failed to deprive the ruling Tories of
:42:59. > :43:03.their majority. It was a tough ask given what had to be done. We did
:43:04. > :43:06.well in Swindon and I am confident that as a platform to when the
:43:07. > :43:09.Parliamentary seats and counsel They all know that it views to
:43:10. > :43:13.become the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Labour must succeed in
:43:14. > :43:18.Swindon. We want to win a Labour majority back in 2015. That means
:43:19. > :43:23.that we need to win at North, south, east and west in our country.
:43:24. > :43:28.Swindon is vital for Labour. Need to have Labour MPs back in here, not
:43:29. > :43:32.just for Swindon but so that we can get that majority. The area relies
:43:33. > :43:36.heavily on private sector jobs full fare particularly badly when the
:43:37. > :43:41.downturn came. The conservative` run council reckon recovery started
:43:42. > :43:45.early. I think that people are feeling more confident. I speak to a
:43:46. > :43:48.lot of businesses making investments and thinking about doing so. The
:43:49. > :43:52.outlook is very positive. I appreciate that people are feeling
:43:53. > :43:57.quite stretched with their private finances, particularly around
:43:58. > :44:03.utility bills. A feel`good factor could be some way off. Many people
:44:04. > :44:10.are financially worse off and anger over cuts to services may grow. I
:44:11. > :44:13.think of resources continue to get pressed by the increase in demand
:44:14. > :44:18.and reduction in government funding, people will start to see bigger
:44:19. > :44:24.changes. `` if our resources. Who do you think the public would blame?
:44:25. > :44:35.That is a good question! I suspect probably the party of government.
:44:36. > :44:39.How are you? Back with Ed Balls and him meeting the next generation of
:44:40. > :44:43.voters. He clearly wants some fans. The challenge is to get them to
:44:44. > :44:48.actually vote in 2015. At least Labour will not have to worry about
:44:49. > :44:54.the fans of Clegg. Swindon is largely seen as a two horse race but
:44:55. > :45:00.the Lib Dems picked up one in six votes here in the last election
:45:01. > :45:04.Will their participation in the core election, `` Coalition swing the
:45:05. > :45:08.sports back to Labour? I'm guessing they have had a time of it from the
:45:09. > :45:15.previous government and what they were left to deal with, the Lib
:45:16. > :45:18.Dems, it is a tough one. It has definitely lowered my opinion of the
:45:19. > :45:22.Lib Dems. I wouldn't vote for them on that basis again. I am not happy.
:45:23. > :45:29.Generally not happy with the way everything is going. You have not
:45:30. > :45:32.been put off? No. I was quite glad that they got there rather than the
:45:33. > :45:37.Tories getting there altogether Christmas is the season of goodwill
:45:38. > :45:41.and politics may not feel that way. Let's discuss the state of the
:45:42. > :45:44.parties, not only in Swindon but right across the rest. Stephen
:45:45. > :45:46.Williams, some people were very angry with the Lib Dems when they
:45:47. > :45:51.went into coalition with the Tories because it made this cuts agenda
:45:52. > :45:56.possible. How are they feeling now? I think the Coalition made the cuts
:45:57. > :46:01.agenda possible. Under the economic circumstance, it made it a necessity
:46:02. > :46:06.forced `` I don't think. They were going to have to form the country's
:46:07. > :46:10.first peacetime coalition against that backdrop and it was always
:46:11. > :46:13.going to be challenged. They knew it would be tough in the early stages
:46:14. > :46:15.of the parliament and then hopefully the economy would turn and the
:46:16. > :46:21.public finances would be on the mend. You didn't plan for that
:46:22. > :46:25.before the election so we didn't have a manifesto which warned this
:46:26. > :46:28.was what he would be doing. When you write your next manifesto, isn't
:46:29. > :46:31.going to mean anything? All three parties are actually going to be
:46:32. > :46:35.fighting the next general election in a different way because we will
:46:36. > :46:41.have had five years of coalition. I think all three leaders in most of
:46:42. > :46:45.the will be slightly different. The manifestoes will be written in
:46:46. > :46:49.different ways. The public will see that coalition can work. They can
:46:50. > :46:57.take tough decisions. One of the things that was said at the last
:46:58. > :47:01.general election was that coalition would lead to weak government. The
:47:02. > :47:06.unions were predicting social unrest with the strikes, student protests
:47:07. > :47:10.but it has never happened. Perhaps people are not as angry as you might
:47:11. > :47:15.think. I think people are angry and I think that they believe, and the
:47:16. > :47:20.polls are showing, that this Government is making the wrong
:47:21. > :47:23.choices, that the Coalition is making the wrong choices. It is the
:47:24. > :47:28.wrong choice to give a tax cut to millionaires whilst cutting
:47:29. > :47:32.support. What you have been saying that fought going to wear a bit
:47:33. > :47:36.thin. Very interesting you should say that. The poll that was done
:47:37. > :47:44.immediately after the Autumn Statement on Thursday showed that
:47:45. > :47:47.40% of people were saying they thought that Ed Balls had got it
:47:48. > :47:54.right in terms of, I know where going to discuss this, the cost of
:47:55. > :47:59.living. But actually, the issues around this Government and the cuts
:48:00. > :48:02.that they are making, that the inherited an economy growing and
:48:03. > :48:06.chalked the growth of, now it is coming back, thankfully, but a lot
:48:07. > :48:12.of pain in between. Let James respond. First thing I would say is
:48:13. > :48:20.that this business about cutting tax, the highest tax on millionaires
:48:21. > :48:24.under Labour was 40% and under this Government it is 45%. We have put
:48:25. > :48:28.the tax upon moaners. I am sure Ed Balls of the nice fellow but... With
:48:29. > :48:40.that where you shouting at him in Parliament? We are seeing Ed Balls
:48:41. > :48:50.trying to respond to the excellent Autumn Statement. It is not going as
:48:51. > :48:53.well as when it was elected. We are having to be ?150 million per day on
:48:54. > :49:01.the debts that Labour racked up Endlessly, a market in Bath said not
:49:02. > :49:06.to come because was too busy. A lot of confidence around. We have to
:49:07. > :49:09.talk about other things because it is the question that makes the blood
:49:10. > :49:12.of an unwitting MP threes. Just how much do things cost in the shops?
:49:13. > :49:20.David Cameron was tripped up recently with the price of a loaf of
:49:21. > :49:27.bread. `` an unwitting MP threes. With the cost of living dominating
:49:28. > :49:30.the agenda, one of our reporters to one of the West was the wealthiest
:49:31. > :49:37.MPs on a trip to the shops. `` took one of the West's wealthiest MPs.
:49:38. > :49:39.It has become the political catchphrase of the year. The Rag
:49:40. > :49:46.cost`of`living crisis. Cost`of`living crisis. For all their
:49:47. > :49:52.talk of the squeeze on cost`of`living, our politicians
:49:53. > :49:55.really in tune with rising prices? I doubt very much they do their own
:49:56. > :49:59.shopping so I think they are quite detached from the general public. I
:50:00. > :50:03.cannot see why they would have any understanding of how much a weekly
:50:04. > :50:08.shop would cost. Someone asked an MP how much a page of milk costs and he
:50:09. > :50:12.said about a pound. It's like 3 p. I just think they have not got any
:50:13. > :50:16.idea. I do not think they do their own shopping. Do you think MPs know
:50:17. > :50:22.how much stuff costs in the shops? No. They probably haven't got a
:50:23. > :50:28.clue, to be honest. They are not shoppers, are they? Like women! That
:50:29. > :50:34.is true in the case of the local MP. Jacob Rees`Mogg he's the local shop
:50:35. > :50:37.to someone else. By which takes charge `` my wife takes charge of
:50:38. > :50:45.most of these things. Whim of the last time we went to the
:50:46. > :50:49.supermarket? Is a partner in his own investment
:50:50. > :50:55.management firm, Mr Rees`Mogg is a very long way from the poverty line.
:50:56. > :51:04.Despite his lack of retail savvy, he agrees to a special challenge. Three
:51:05. > :51:08.shopkeepers have agreed to put their local MP to the test on the cost of
:51:09. > :51:14.some local results tables. First up, the bridge is. I have for delicious
:51:15. > :51:17.Welsh double lamb chops. My challenge is how much do you think
:51:18. > :51:22.that will cost? The correct I do not know. They were delicious. I doubt
:51:23. > :51:28.would get much change for ?10. Let's find out. There are ?12.31. There
:51:29. > :51:34.you go, an increase in the cost`of`living, otherwise I would
:51:35. > :51:39.have been right. EV do guess but it is `` a vague guess but quite close.
:51:40. > :51:43.They're changing the way they buy their food. We have noticed that
:51:44. > :51:47.people are opting for the cheaper cuts of meat. Obviously for
:51:48. > :51:51.students, home`made burgers, minced beef and things like that whereas
:51:52. > :51:57.they might have had a romp state or sirloin steak. There is definitely a
:51:58. > :52:05.change. Next on the tour, something frequent for his wife. `` fragrant.
:52:06. > :52:08.We have some here so would you like to have a go at getting much this
:52:09. > :52:13.bunch would cost? I think that really difficult. I know I have got
:52:14. > :52:22.to be precise. I am not allowed to give a woolly answer. I would say
:52:23. > :52:25.?30. That actually costs 35. I was right, flowers are expensive and
:52:26. > :52:30.even more than I thought but they are very beautiful. Close again But
:52:31. > :52:35.how will Eton and Oxford's finest fare against his nemesis? I am the
:52:36. > :52:40.wrong person to ask about bananas because in those banana. I would
:52:41. > :52:46.never buy bananas! I absolutely hate bananas. They have stumped me on
:52:47. > :52:55.this one. What you think that would cost you? Being a use that for
:52:56. > :53:06.pounds two kilos. ?3? You're weird. That is only about ?1 28. Still ?1
:53:07. > :53:12.28 too much! It is a big slip on our final banana skin but can MPs
:53:13. > :53:15.legislating in London ever fully understand those they represent I
:53:16. > :53:21.think it is about empathy rather than experience. I always thought we
:53:22. > :53:23.are a society of individuals. Nobody liked anybody else's life precisely
:53:24. > :53:28.and so whatever your background you have to try to have an understanding
:53:29. > :53:32.of what affect other people and work on that understanding. That is what
:53:33. > :53:38.is important for politicians, rather than leading identical lives to
:53:39. > :53:41.their constituents. They will not. The ability of well`paid MPs to
:53:42. > :53:43.empathise with ordinary shoppers will be tested further as the
:53:44. > :53:48.argument over the cost`of`living intensifies.
:53:49. > :53:51.Thank you to Jacob Rees`Mogg for being a good sport and doing the
:53:52. > :53:54.rounds of the shops for us. As it is Christmas time, we thought we would
:53:55. > :53:59.have a little quiz for you all. First of all, for an ordinary pack
:54:00. > :54:11.of water, you can see it behind me, you reckon? `` pack of water. ? .
:54:12. > :54:20.?2.50. I tend to buy tops. ?1.2 . It is in fact ?1.50. So there is a
:54:21. > :54:28.prize. Oh, it is unfolded! Excellent. Only the BBC. Our next
:54:29. > :54:44.one is a Jo Brand resource as it is Christmas. I never buy it. ?2. Oh,
:54:45. > :54:54.?2.20. ?3.50. It is ?1.50. It was you! Well, I never buy! Lucky guess.
:54:55. > :55:02.That was, actually. It was a guest! That is my Christmas present sorted.
:55:03. > :55:09.Cranberries 's! Isn't because it's Christmas. To get back to the
:55:10. > :55:19.political point, the cost`of`living, that is going to be very much the
:55:20. > :55:24.agenda for the next election, his Ed Miliband actually been surprised at
:55:25. > :55:31.them sitting that agenda? No. It is slightly overshadowed by the death
:55:32. > :55:37.of Nova Mandela but we can see that the economy is better. `` Nelson
:55:38. > :55:43.Mandela. Who feeling richer? People fear more secure in their jobs ``
:55:44. > :55:47.feel more secure in their jobs. Look at the predictions on growth in the
:55:48. > :55:53.economy figures that George Osborne denied. Very encouraging indeed You
:55:54. > :56:02.are quite right in saying that prices are going up, particularly in
:56:03. > :56:07.energy. `` George Osborne give out. In the doorstep, in the mailbag
:56:08. > :56:12.people are very concerned about rising prices of food and their
:56:13. > :56:16.energy bills. They feel they have got no slack in their budgets. They
:56:17. > :56:20.are cutting back, even as we run into Christmas, and they are
:56:21. > :56:23.absolutely worried that something, their heating boiler, might go and
:56:24. > :56:28.they will need a house repair. What is the Government doing to address
:56:29. > :56:35.those concerns? The first thing is give people more money in their
:56:36. > :56:38.pockets by reading the income tax allowance. That is worth ?700 per
:56:39. > :56:46.year to people. We have frozen fuel duty, cancelled a lot of the fuel
:56:47. > :56:49.duty rises that Labour had planned. We have frozen council tax. That is
:56:50. > :56:53.much more significant for many people than their energy bills and
:56:54. > :57:00.this week, the Lib Dem imagery secretary reduced action on ?50 No,
:57:01. > :57:06.stopping them going up as much. That is not quite the same thing. `` just
:57:07. > :57:09.energy bills by ?50. People are saying that the things they need for
:57:10. > :57:18.their daily lives are too expensive is. They are feeling more expensive
:57:19. > :57:22.and they are struggling. We cannot always deal with every single price
:57:23. > :57:26.rise but what we can do is have the economic conditions, more people
:57:27. > :57:30.going to work, unemployment has fallen below with it was the last
:57:31. > :57:34.general election, put more money into people's pockets by income tax
:57:35. > :57:45.changes. Let's take a final run to the political week. This is our 62nd
:57:46. > :57:50.round up. `` 60 second round up There was anger in the West's
:57:51. > :57:55.universities. Lecturers and support staff from three unions, saying an
:57:56. > :57:59.offer of a 1% increase in pay was my belly `` miserly. We have members
:58:00. > :58:04.who have to put food banks and we do not that is right. But the curtain
:58:05. > :58:07.will rise again in the Brewhouse Theatre. The venue had been
:58:08. > :58:13.threatened with closer but is now to be run by a community group. I think
:58:14. > :58:16.it is great. Now we have got a mountain to climb. There is a lot to
:58:17. > :58:19.do. Nick Clegg it came to the West. He
:58:20. > :58:25.stopped by in the Lib Dem seed of Bristol West and Chilton on to
:58:26. > :58:28.answer questions from the public. Labourers selected its candidate for
:58:29. > :58:34.Bath, only 18. In his first interview, he showed signs of being
:58:35. > :58:39.a good addition. Who is your serial, Tony Blair or Tony Ben? There are
:58:40. > :58:44.both fantastic politicians! Oh, you are going to be on the politics show
:58:45. > :58:50.for years to come! Well, let us young things discussed
:58:51. > :58:57.that. What is the appropriate age to become an MP? Well, I think that he
:58:58. > :59:01.showed a wise head on young shoulders and there are many of
:59:02. > :59:08.those around. We have lots of in Dom I can MPs. When I was 18, I thought
:59:09. > :59:14.my father was a fool. When I was 25, I was amazed at how much he had
:59:15. > :59:22.learned in seven years. 18 is a good age to go to the pub and smoke a
:59:23. > :59:27.cigarette. 16 is too young to vote. Speaker I have tried to reduce the
:59:28. > :59:32.voting age to 16 and it passed in January. By the next election I do
:59:33. > :59:36.not know but by the next general election they may be able to vote.
:59:37. > :59:38.Thank you. That is Menzies Campbell have to leave things for this
:59:39. > :59:45.afternoon, or this morning, because that is it for their West this week
:59:46. > :59:49.and this year. `` that is it from us. We are going to have to leave
:59:50. > :59:54.this. Thank you for entering into the festive spirit. If you want to
:59:55. > :59:56.watch this part of the programme again, you will find it on the BBCi
:59:57. > :59:58.player. Tomorrow, the House of Commons will
:59:59. > :00:22.pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest
:00:23. > :00:48.son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that
:00:49. > :00:49.involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against
:00:50. > :01:01.apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to
:01:02. > :01:10.South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put
:01:11. > :01:19.on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He
:01:20. > :01:23.also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the
:01:24. > :01:28.world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this
:01:29. > :01:39.reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who
:01:40. > :01:48.raised the standard of humanity Thank you for the gift of Madiba.
:01:49. > :01:58.Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.
:01:59. > :02:07.We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not
:02:08. > :02:12.one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an
:02:13. > :02:17.election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I
:02:18. > :02:20.would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been
:02:21. > :02:26.the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary He
:02:27. > :02:30.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot
:02:31. > :02:36.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without
:02:37. > :02:41.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his
:02:42. > :02:46.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that
:02:47. > :02:48.if you have black majority rule you might have a bloodbath. It's down to
:02:49. > :02:54.Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that
:02:55. > :03:03.Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the
:03:04. > :03:09.key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about
:03:10. > :03:11.it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That
:03:12. > :03:17.anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics
:03:18. > :03:22.in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the
:03:23. > :03:26.time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in
:03:27. > :03:30.South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the
:03:31. > :03:35.anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political
:03:36. > :03:39.campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's
:03:40. > :03:43.assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people
:03:44. > :03:47.that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him
:03:48. > :03:52.come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you
:03:53. > :03:57.have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,
:03:58. > :04:05.picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was
:04:06. > :04:12.more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice
:04:13. > :04:15.Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's
:04:16. > :04:19.performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a
:04:20. > :04:23.brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best
:04:24. > :04:28.performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points
:04:29. > :04:33.he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I
:04:34. > :04:38.noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that
:04:39. > :04:41.under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for
:04:42. > :04:47.him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience
:04:48. > :04:50.first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not
:04:51. > :05:02.anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This
:05:03. > :05:06.is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can
:05:07. > :05:12.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to
:05:13. > :05:17.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he
:05:18. > :05:22.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless
:05:23. > :05:27.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid
:05:28. > :05:32.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed
:05:33. > :05:37.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the
:05:38. > :05:40.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed
:05:41. > :05:44.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview
:05:45. > :05:48.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument
:05:49. > :05:53.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just
:05:54. > :05:59.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to
:06:00. > :06:03.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of
:06:04. > :06:09.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than
:06:10. > :06:12.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective
:06:13. > :06:17.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown
:06:18. > :06:21.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys
:06:22. > :06:25.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to
:06:26. > :06:29.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,
:06:30. > :06:32.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the
:06:33. > :06:37.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don t think he would do it. Talk about
:06:38. > :06:42.shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too
:06:43. > :06:50.far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would
:06:51. > :06:57.want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I
:06:58. > :07:02.can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair
:07:03. > :07:07.Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put
:07:08. > :07:11.him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare
:07:12. > :07:15.secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to
:07:16. > :07:20.the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,
:07:21. > :07:26.or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which
:07:27. > :07:30.could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could
:07:31. > :07:32.feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,
:07:33. > :07:38.looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour
:07:39. > :07:41.strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view
:07:42. > :07:44.mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead
:07:45. > :07:51.through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre
:07:52. > :07:55.of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for
:07:56. > :08:00.him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison
:08:01. > :08:03.with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is
:08:04. > :08:08.between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between
:08:09. > :08:12.Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging
:08:13. > :08:16.reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of
:08:17. > :08:19.recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that
:08:20. > :08:26.punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?
:08:27. > :08:29.Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.
:08:30. > :08:33.We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in
:08:34. > :08:39.living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David
:08:40. > :08:43.Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal
:08:44. > :08:46.lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the
:08:47. > :08:50.composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we
:08:51. > :08:54.ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it
:08:55. > :08:58.smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.
:08:59. > :09:08.Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I
:09:09. > :09:15.say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of
:09:16. > :09:21.the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will
:09:22. > :09:26.there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,
:09:27. > :09:35.but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a
:09:36. > :09:40.third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What
:09:41. > :09:47.will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to
:09:48. > :09:52.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR got it wrong last year. Well, they went
:09:53. > :09:57.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and
:09:58. > :10:04.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it
:10:05. > :10:07.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular
:10:08. > :10:14.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is
:10:15. > :10:19.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2 4%, because the housing market in London
:10:20. > :10:24.is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed
:10:25. > :10:36.Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,
:10:37. > :10:39.I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean
:10:40. > :10:50.have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour
:10:51. > :10:53.Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence
:10:54. > :10:58.referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless
:10:59. > :11:07.they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to
:11:08. > :11:12.call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come
:11:13. > :11:20.to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population
:11:21. > :11:24.of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,
:11:25. > :11:30.I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,
:11:31. > :11:34.but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into
:11:35. > :11:40.figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think
:11:41. > :11:46.quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a
:11:47. > :11:53.huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to
:11:54. > :11:57.speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three
:11:58. > :12:05.of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend
:12:06. > :12:10.that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If
:12:11. > :12:19.you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you
:12:20. > :12:27.have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true
:12:28. > :12:32.talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you
:12:33. > :12:38.will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election
:12:39. > :12:43.next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this
:12:44. > :12:51.time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of
:12:52. > :12:57.the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage
:12:58. > :13:00.to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like
:13:01. > :13:04.there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it
:13:05. > :13:08.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think
:13:09. > :13:11.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick
:13:12. > :13:18.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all
:13:19. > :13:21.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the
:13:22. > :13:25.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force
:13:26. > :13:29.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.
:13:30. > :13:36.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives
:13:37. > :13:42.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the
:13:43. > :13:49.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:50. > :13:51.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.