16/02/2014

:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

:00:57. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

:01:01. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

:01:10. > :01:17.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election

:01:18. > :01:20.The blame game over flooding. A local MP calls the chair of the

:01:21. > :01:22.Environment Agency all sorts of rude look at his decisions and priorities

:01:23. > :01:41.with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest

:01:42. > :01:43.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and

:01:44. > :01:48.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development

:01:49. > :01:49.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the

:01:50. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel

:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that

:02:00. > :02:02.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union

:02:03. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28

:02:08. > :02:10.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if

:02:11. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out

:02:16. > :02:21.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very

:02:22. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by

:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the

:02:33. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your

:02:38. > :02:40.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely

:02:41. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have

:02:46. > :02:53.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that

:02:54. > :02:57.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is

:02:58. > :03:00.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be

:03:01. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't

:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive

:03:11. > :03:14.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex

:03:15. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to

:03:20. > :03:22.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with

:03:23. > :03:29.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last

:03:30. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically

:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that

:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get

:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more

:03:59. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is

:04:03. > :04:07.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active

:04:08. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other

:04:12. > :04:14.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no

:04:15. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by

:04:21. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it

:04:25. > :04:31.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have

:04:32. > :04:33.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite

:04:34. > :04:39.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know

:04:40. > :04:44.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried

:04:45. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care

:04:52. > :04:57.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.

:04:58. > :05:00.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the

:05:01. > :05:05.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the

:05:06. > :05:08.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would

:05:09. > :05:11.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that

:05:12. > :05:16.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls

:05:17. > :05:22.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for

:05:23. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of

:05:28. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in

:05:31. > :05:33.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a

:05:34. > :05:39.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both

:05:40. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already

:05:47. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is

:05:50. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,

:05:55. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the

:05:59. > :06:01.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was

:06:02. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A

:06:07. > :06:09.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last

:06:10. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest

:06:14. > :06:18.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members

:06:19. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the

:06:24. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership

:06:28. > :06:30.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when

:06:31. > :06:35.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has

:06:36. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to

:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the

:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100

:06:49. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has

:06:53. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.

:06:58. > :07:05.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.

:07:06. > :07:13.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the

:07:14. > :07:18.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of

:07:19. > :07:20.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it

:07:21. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices

:07:25. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone

:07:29. > :07:31.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep

:07:32. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not

:07:38. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking

:07:41. > :07:44.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a

:07:45. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less

:07:48. > :07:54.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.

:07:55. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV

:08:00. > :08:04.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time

:08:05. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.

:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit

:08:12. > :08:14.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,

:08:15. > :08:20.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they

:08:21. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out

:08:27. > :08:29.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket

:08:30. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind

:08:35. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the

:08:39. > :08:43.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They

:08:44. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?

:08:50. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got

:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a

:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in

:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million

:09:03. > :09:06.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per

:09:07. > :09:11.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We

:09:12. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more

:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming

:09:20. > :09:21.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people

:09:22. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of

:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I

:09:34. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I

:09:41. > :09:44.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because

:09:45. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what

:09:51. > :09:53.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily

:09:54. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to

:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...

:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and

:10:06. > :10:09.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were

:10:10. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they

:10:14. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on

:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They

:10:21. > :10:27.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be

:10:28. > :10:31.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never

:10:32. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what

:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I

:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next

:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot

:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do

:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be

:10:59. > :11:02.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not

:11:03. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good

:11:07. > :11:10.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all

:11:11. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they

:11:16. > :11:19.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to

:11:20. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for

:11:23. > :11:24.your members and why union membership has been rising, people

:11:25. > :11:29.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost

:11:30. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone

:11:37. > :11:38.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are

:11:39. > :11:42.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on

:11:43. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at

:11:48. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The

:11:53. > :11:57.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary

:11:58. > :12:03.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a

:12:04. > :12:09.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had

:12:10. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members

:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by

:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the

:12:27. > :12:31.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the

:12:32. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up

:12:37. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are

:12:41. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all

:12:44. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars

:12:48. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members

:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if

:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who

:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of

:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling

:13:11. > :13:17.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It

:13:18. > :13:21.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us

:13:22. > :13:25.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's

:13:26. > :13:32.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having

:13:33. > :13:37.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is

:13:38. > :13:40.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said

:13:41. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in

:13:46. > :13:49.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth

:13:50. > :13:54.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting

:13:55. > :13:57.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy

:13:58. > :14:03.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?

:14:04. > :14:08.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx

:14:09. > :14:11.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and

:14:12. > :14:16.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of

:14:17. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out

:14:25. > :14:28.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they

:14:29. > :14:32.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so

:14:33. > :14:36.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and

:14:37. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the

:14:40. > :14:43.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute

:14:44. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing

:14:49. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless

:14:55. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this

:15:03. > :15:12.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming

:15:13. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it

:15:19. > :15:24.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it

:15:25. > :15:27.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be

:15:28. > :15:35.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who

:15:36. > :15:40.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality

:15:41. > :15:45.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a

:15:46. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless

:15:55. > :16:00.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small

:16:01. > :16:05.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me

:16:06. > :16:21.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over

:16:22. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created

:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many

:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the

:16:38. > :16:41.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and

:16:42. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better

:16:47. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the

:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single

:17:00. > :17:06.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes

:17:07. > :17:12.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long

:17:13. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.

:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is

:17:24. > :17:29.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people

:17:30. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use

:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the

:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I

:17:52. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.

:17:57. > :18:04.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is

:18:05. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being

:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that

:18:16. > :18:19.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out

:18:20. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the

:18:25. > :18:28.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London

:18:29. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices

:18:33. > :18:36.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially

:18:37. > :18:43.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the

:18:44. > :18:52.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed

:18:53. > :19:06.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal

:19:07. > :19:11.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and

:19:12. > :19:17.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want

:19:18. > :19:25.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of

:19:26. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%

:19:35. > :19:39.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of

:19:40. > :19:45.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a

:19:46. > :19:49.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be

:19:50. > :19:55.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to

:19:56. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we

:20:02. > :20:08.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were

:20:09. > :20:13.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where

:20:14. > :20:18.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be

:20:19. > :20:23.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the

:20:24. > :20:31.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT

:20:32. > :20:35.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got

:20:36. > :20:44.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the

:20:45. > :20:53.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we

:20:54. > :20:58.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you

:20:59. > :21:08.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You

:21:09. > :21:15.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you

:21:16. > :21:22.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and

:21:23. > :21:27.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are

:21:28. > :21:33.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the

:21:34. > :21:40.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as

:21:41. > :21:47.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the

:21:48. > :21:52.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not

:21:53. > :21:57.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to

:21:58. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to

:22:05. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have

:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if

:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later

:22:29. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel

:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish

:22:40. > :22:45.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now

:22:46. > :22:52.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I

:22:53. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He

:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,

:23:07. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to

:23:13. > :23:15.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are

:23:16. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been

:23:21. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work

:23:27. > :23:30.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership

:23:31. > :23:36.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and

:23:37. > :23:49.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are

:23:50. > :23:52.talking about the president of the European commission and we have

:23:53. > :23:57.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,

:23:58. > :24:06.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that

:24:07. > :24:13.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they

:24:14. > :24:18.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it

:24:19. > :24:22.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state

:24:23. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish

:24:30. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if

:24:35. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an

:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.

:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no

:24:49. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union

:24:52. > :24:56.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the

:24:57. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union

:25:02. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation

:25:07. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that

:25:17. > :25:22.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for

:25:23. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has

:25:29. > :25:32.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel

:25:33. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it

:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the

:25:46. > :25:48.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within

:25:49. > :25:57.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is

:25:58. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect

:26:02. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence

:26:09. > :26:14.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves

:26:15. > :26:21.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We

:26:22. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be

:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's

:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for

:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent

:26:44. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or

:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our

:26:53. > :26:59.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests

:27:00. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.

:27:06. > :27:08.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of

:27:09. > :27:11.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of

:27:12. > :27:14.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on

:27:15. > :27:17.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come

:27:18. > :27:21.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the

:27:22. > :27:31.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all

:27:32. > :27:42.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a

:27:43. > :27:49.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?

:27:50. > :27:52.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard

:27:53. > :27:55.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP

:27:56. > :28:05.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.

:28:06. > :28:11.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have

:28:12. > :28:13.come second and increased their share of the vote quite

:28:14. > :28:16.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances

:28:17. > :28:19.in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest

:28:20. > :28:30.to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd

:28:31. > :28:39.told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I

:28:40. > :28:43.wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour

:28:44. > :28:50.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were

:28:51. > :28:54.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in

:28:55. > :28:57.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets

:28:58. > :29:00.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about

:29:01. > :29:04.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help

:29:05. > :29:09.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.

:29:10. > :29:15.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they

:29:16. > :29:18.could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP

:29:19. > :29:29.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about

:29:30. > :29:36.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy

:29:37. > :29:42.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many

:29:43. > :29:46.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do

:29:47. > :29:51.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters

:29:52. > :29:57.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban

:29:58. > :30:00.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And

:30:01. > :30:04.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if

:30:05. > :30:17.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just

:30:18. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP

:30:21. > :30:24.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they

:30:25. > :30:27.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the

:30:28. > :30:33.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their

:30:34. > :30:39.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will

:30:40. > :30:42.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the

:30:43. > :30:47.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may

:30:48. > :30:55.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over

:30:56. > :31:03.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had

:31:04. > :31:07.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a

:31:08. > :31:11.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious

:31:12. > :31:16.as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good

:31:17. > :31:20.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which

:31:21. > :31:26.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if

:31:27. > :31:31.it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP

:31:32. > :31:35.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He

:31:36. > :31:37.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You

:31:38. > :31:44.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky

:31:45. > :31:50.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very

:31:51. > :31:54.unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to

:31:55. > :32:04.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back

:32:05. > :32:09.to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular

:32:10. > :32:13.government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour

:32:14. > :32:16.compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out

:32:17. > :32:20.the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an

:32:21. > :32:26.efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people

:32:27. > :32:30.with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the

:32:31. > :32:34.increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in

:32:35. > :32:39.the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think

:32:40. > :32:44.by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour

:32:45. > :32:49.in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should

:32:50. > :32:53.discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look

:32:54. > :32:57.forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we

:32:58. > :33:04.have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change

:33:05. > :33:08.that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the

:33:09. > :33:13.north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are

:33:14. > :33:17.drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and

:33:18. > :33:21.they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want

:33:22. > :33:26.change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and

:33:27. > :33:31.they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have

:33:32. > :33:35.seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to

:33:36. > :33:39.get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the

:33:40. > :33:49.renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's

:33:50. > :33:54.get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in

:33:55. > :33:58.22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what

:33:59. > :34:02.motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum

:34:03. > :34:05.on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative

:34:06. > :34:09.government at the next election And you could well stop that from

:34:10. > :34:14.happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David

:34:15. > :34:17.Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making

:34:18. > :34:20.before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs

:34:21. > :34:24.asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because

:34:25. > :34:28.he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that

:34:29. > :34:31.pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can

:34:32. > :34:35.force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge.

:34:36. > :34:42.Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a

:34:43. > :34:46.referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a

:34:47. > :34:51.referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a

:34:52. > :34:55.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in

:34:56. > :34:58.or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please

:34:59. > :35:04.UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver

:35:05. > :35:08.and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a

:35:09. > :35:14.pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you

:35:15. > :35:17.are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into

:35:18. > :35:23.the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still

:35:24. > :35:27.loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing

:35:28. > :35:33.David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay

:35:34. > :35:39.in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are

:35:40. > :35:44.going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to

:35:45. > :35:46.that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going

:35:47. > :35:50.to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending

:35:51. > :35:57.them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are

:35:58. > :36:01.concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters

:36:02. > :36:07.and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like

:36:08. > :36:10.immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship

:36:11. > :36:13.with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to

:36:14. > :36:17.negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is

:36:18. > :36:27.not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to

:36:28. > :36:31.defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there

:36:32. > :36:36.will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty

:36:37. > :36:42.change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do

:36:43. > :36:46.then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to

:36:47. > :36:54.agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these

:36:55. > :37:01.negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has

:37:02. > :37:04.been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and

:37:05. > :37:10.unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You

:37:11. > :37:14.would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in

:37:15. > :37:19.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.

:37:20. > :37:25.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers

:37:26. > :37:28.lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of

:37:29. > :37:32.Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up

:37:33. > :37:35.in just over 20 minutes, I will be talking about, what else, the

:37:36. > :37:52.weather, with our Thank you, Andrew. Good morning and

:37:53. > :37:55.welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the West. Once again, the

:37:56. > :37:58.floodwaters have washed in another wave of politicians. But did the

:37:59. > :38:02.arrival of the Westminster welly brigade make a jot of difference to

:38:03. > :38:05.those waist deep in flood water As the political classes point the

:38:06. > :38:09.finger of blame at each other, we will consider why we always need a

:38:10. > :38:12.scapegoat in a crisis. Well, here to discuss this week's political

:38:13. > :38:16.weather we have two darlings of the right. Conservative Jacob Rees`Mogg

:38:17. > :38:19.has been dubbed by some as the right honourable member for the 19th

:38:20. > :38:23.century. He is also the current MP for North East Somerset. And Gawain

:38:24. > :38:26.Towler is a new face on a show. He is running for UKIP in May's

:38:27. > :38:30.European elections. Welcome to you both. Let's start with overseas aid

:38:31. > :38:33.and calls for that money to be used for flood victims here. What is the

:38:34. > :38:36.justification for that? The justification is pretty simple. The

:38:37. > :38:39.money that the Government raises for assistance of those in need is money

:38:40. > :38:43.for assistance for those in need. It's not Bangladesh though, is it?

:38:44. > :38:48.However bad it is? No, it is the UK and people in the UK are in need and

:38:49. > :38:51.that's why we believe that in this crisis, in situations like this

:38:52. > :38:54.that some of the money that is currently earmarked to be sent

:38:55. > :38:56.abroad... And remember this is particularly development aid, not

:38:57. > :39:00.humanitarian aid, there is a truism that it is for rich people in rich

:39:01. > :39:03.countries trying to support poor people in poor countries. Better

:39:04. > :39:06.that money is spent at home, looking after our own. Jake, the Prime

:39:07. > :39:09.Minister has completely ruled that out? the Prime Minister has a

:39:10. > :39:12.manifesto commitment to increase the overseas budget and won the

:39:13. > :39:15.election. I never happened to believe that was a good promise I

:39:16. > :39:18.think overseas aid is an inappropriate use of taxpayers'

:39:19. > :39:33.money. I think the best way to get poor countries to be rich is to

:39:34. > :39:47.trade with them. And that overseas aid is a matter for private charity,

:39:48. > :39:50.not for taxpayer money. And the rain keeps on falling and there is still

:39:51. > :39:53.no end in sight for those affected by the flooding. Tempers have been

:39:54. > :39:56.getting frayed with many people including politicians, looking for

:39:57. > :40:00.someone to blame. The Bridgwater MP has not minced his words, calling

:40:01. > :40:10.the chair of the Environment Agency a g`i`t and threatening to flush his

:40:11. > :40:15.head down the toilet. Ruth sent this support from the Somerset levels on

:40:16. > :40:19.the blame game. You know, people said he was OK but I find him an

:40:20. > :40:24.arrogant out`of`touch and a really rather sad man. It is fair to say

:40:25. > :40:29.Ian Liddell Grainger and Lord Chris Smith aren't the best of mates. He

:40:30. > :40:33.is an out of touch, arrogant man. He is a quango king of the worst type.

:40:34. > :40:37.It's a no`brainer. He can't be that stupid. Ian Liddell Grainger isn't

:40:38. > :40:40.the only one pointing the finger and the chair of the Environment Agency

:40:41. > :40:46.isn't the only one at the receiving end. There are lots of others

:40:47. > :40:59.responsible for fund work also. All are likely to be

:41:00. > :41:05.All are likely to be sucked into the blame game as time goes on. This is

:41:06. > :41:08.North Curry on the Somerset Levels, where some homes and businesses are

:41:09. > :41:12.under water for the second time in two years. Local people are looking

:41:13. > :41:17.for someone to blame. It is a coping strategy, I believe. It's so bad out

:41:18. > :41:20.here. All the locals are saying it has never been anywhere near as bad

:41:21. > :41:24.down here and I think having something to focus on, blame, it

:41:25. > :41:29.helps. There's a lot of talk about blame. Do you blame anyone? Oh,

:41:30. > :41:32.definitely the Environment Agency. After the 2012 flooding, they were

:41:33. > :41:37.told by all the local people about the rivers needing dredging. They

:41:38. > :41:41.took a gamble and it has failed and we are paying for the consequences

:41:42. > :41:44.now. We all can't be wrong blaming the Environment Agency. Meeting

:41:45. > :41:50.people like Keith, you can see why he wants someone to blame. Others

:41:51. > :41:54.say that is not constructive. Phil Stones lived in North Curry for 25

:41:55. > :41:59.years. A former district councillor, he wants action, not nasty words. A

:42:00. > :42:02.lot of people are in desperate circumstances and that's the natural

:42:03. > :42:07.reaction, to look at who is responsible. And I think the time

:42:08. > :42:11.will come for that, to look at how we got here and what we now need to

:42:12. > :42:15.do to try and ensure we don't get here in the future. And he's not

:42:16. > :42:20.convinced MPs speaking out like Ian Liddell Grainger are helpful. Some

:42:21. > :42:24.of the things that Ian said are valid but I think he is focusing too

:42:25. > :42:29.much on the blame and not enough on what positive action is now required

:42:30. > :42:32.when there is so much to be done. I mean, it's quite entertaining but

:42:33. > :42:34.it's not very constructive. The Environment Agency says it's

:42:35. > :42:37.concentrating on protecting people and properties in the extreme

:42:38. > :42:40.weather, rather than getting involved in allegations of blame.

:42:41. > :42:43.But its chair, Lord Smith, did use an article in the national press to

:42:44. > :42:50.say the Government was using his agency as a political football.

:42:51. > :42:56.People are concerned about police presence, police visibility. Are our

:42:57. > :42:59.properties secure? At a meeting for flood`hit residents near Bridgwater

:43:00. > :43:03.this week, the local MP did seem slightly repentant. You've blamed

:43:04. > :43:07.the Environment Agency, Chris Smith in particular. Is blaming anyone the

:43:08. > :43:11.right thing to be doing right now? No, and I think that's fair. There

:43:12. > :43:19.are occasions when you're up against it and even I let off steam. And I

:43:20. > :43:23.just felt it was so unfair to tell people who had been living here for

:43:24. > :43:27.generations that they have to make a choice and it was their fault in the

:43:28. > :43:31.first place. I thought that was unfair. And you look back and you

:43:32. > :43:35.think, should I have said that? And the answer is probably not but the

:43:36. > :43:38.professional side of me is that I am not prepared to have my constituents

:43:39. > :43:41.being given a choice. Their lives matter more to me, and their

:43:42. > :43:45.livelihoods, than Chris Smith. Are you looking for someone to blame so

:43:46. > :43:49.people don't point the finger at you? No, I am happy to stand up in

:43:50. > :43:53.front of everybody. That is why I'm here. You know, I am not a shrinking

:43:54. > :43:57.violet. You know that! You know that very well. No, if people want to

:43:58. > :44:01.come and shout at me, and people have, I am quite happy to take it.

:44:02. > :44:05.And he might have to take that flak for some time. The water is slow to

:44:06. > :44:08.recede and those affected desperate for someone to blame.

:44:09. > :44:11.Joining me in the studio is Doctor Tim Harries. He is an expert on

:44:12. > :44:14.human behaviour from Kingston University and he studied the impact

:44:15. > :44:17.of flooding on mental health. Thank you very much for coming in. What

:44:18. > :44:20.are the flood victims going through? Many mixed and very different

:44:21. > :44:24.emotions. I mean, shock and anger are some of the first ones, of

:44:25. > :44:29.course. We have heard lots of that on the radio and on the television.

:44:30. > :44:33.Disbelief. And what this kind of mix leads to then, inevitably, one of

:44:34. > :44:38.the things it leads to in the short term is a kind of denial. Because

:44:39. > :44:42.the shock is actually too great for us to handle easily so we need to

:44:43. > :44:46.find some way of coping, as the lady on the clip mentioned. One of the

:44:47. > :44:50.coping mechanisms is actually to blame someone else. So we all will

:44:51. > :44:55.tend to think, " Who can I blame? Who is not me? Who is not part of my

:44:56. > :44:58.little community or home?" And politicians and the Environment

:44:59. > :45:02.Agency are going to be in the front line, are they not? They are the

:45:03. > :45:05.natural scapegoats. And to some extent, it is understandable that

:45:06. > :45:09.they get some of the blame. The problem with that of course is that

:45:10. > :45:12.they are also the ones who are looking after us and protecting us.

:45:13. > :45:15.Let's bring in the politicians. Jacob, when you heard your fellow

:45:16. > :45:18.conservative Ian Liddell Grainger calling someone a git and wanting to

:45:19. > :45:23.put their head down the toilet, did it make you feel proud? Ian speaks

:45:24. > :45:28.his mind and that is a thoroughly good thing for politicians to do. I

:45:29. > :45:31.speak my mind in a slightly different way from Ian but he has

:45:32. > :45:35.made his criticisms very forcefully and I think there is an important

:45:36. > :45:37.underlying point, which is that the Environment Agency made policy

:45:38. > :45:41.decisions that made the problem worse. Now, I thought it would be

:45:42. > :45:50.useful to bring the 2008 policy document from the Environment

:45:51. > :45:53.Agency. Right. It says that directed flooding on the Somerset Levels and

:45:54. > :45:56.moors has the potential to enhance already significant nature

:45:57. > :45:58.conservation interests. So in 2 08, the Environment Agency suggesting

:45:59. > :46:05.that actually flooding the Somerset moors was an allowable thing to do.

:46:06. > :46:08.Here we are in 2014 with a serious flooding problem, mainly because

:46:09. > :46:10.because there has been a lot of rain rather than because of the

:46:11. > :46:14.Environment Agency but policy decisions made it worse. Now if this

:46:15. > :46:17.is to be put right in future, we have to examine the mistaken

:46:18. > :46:23.policies that were chosen and put new ones in place. And that is where

:46:24. > :46:27.you need some element of blame because we need to work out what...

:46:28. > :46:29.And would you also blame the local authorities who didn't contribute to

:46:30. > :46:33.dredging? The dredging stopped in 1995 and my godfather, who was a

:46:34. > :46:36.Somerset County Councilor in the 1980s, said that at the time that

:46:37. > :46:40.not dredging would lead to these problems and so once you've got very

:46:41. > :46:45.heavy rainfall, you are in a position where it was going to have

:46:46. > :46:48.a worse effect because of policy. It is interesting the Conservatives

:46:49. > :46:56.didn't come into power and override the Environment Agency. But bringing

:46:57. > :47:01.in Gawain, you blame Brussels, presumably. In part. There are. . A

:47:02. > :47:03.problem has many fathers. It is as the levels are a man`made

:47:04. > :47:07.environment, the problems are largely man`made. Yes, of course we

:47:08. > :47:11.have had the problems with the weather but the ability to deal with

:47:12. > :47:13.it has been hampered by the taking over by the Environment Agency of

:47:14. > :47:17.the responsibility of drainage from the Rivers Authority. It was once

:47:18. > :47:25.the case that the water companies were responsible for everything

:47:26. > :47:28.Then when they were privatised, that authority, that responsibility, was

:47:29. > :47:35.split between about six different agencies, most of which are

:47:36. > :47:39.mentioned in your film. The problem now is the buck does not stop

:47:40. > :47:43.anywhere. The blame is being put on Chris Smith. To a large extent I

:47:44. > :47:47.think reasonably. And I think what Jacob has brought up is key. What is

:47:48. > :47:51.driving the policy that thinks it is a good idea to flood the levels And

:47:52. > :47:54.I would say there you're looking at the habitat directive, you're

:47:55. > :47:57.looking at the water framework directive, and various other

:47:58. > :48:02.aspects. Is it simply an act of God, actually, and there is not much that

:48:03. > :48:05.any of us can do about it? I would like to just come back to the

:48:06. > :48:08.difference between blame and understanding. So it sounds that we

:48:09. > :48:11.are talking about how can we understand why Somerset has flooded

:48:12. > :48:15.so badly. Now, that is right and good as far as I'm concerned. What

:48:16. > :48:20.we often see from residents and on occasion from politicians is very

:48:21. > :48:24.emotional blaming. Now that is a negative part. Of course we have to

:48:25. > :48:28.understand if the Environment Agency can change and of course we need to

:48:29. > :48:31.see why they did what they did. With probably good intentions. But the

:48:32. > :48:34.blame potentially has quite a negative effect, in that we need,

:48:35. > :48:36.for example, a very good relationship between the Environment

:48:37. > :48:40.Agency and householders and farmers and small businesses in order that

:48:41. > :48:44.together they can actually work this through. What we have had in the

:48:45. > :48:47.past is antagonism, which has actually pushed the two parties

:48:48. > :48:51.apart. So should the politicians then be trying to smooth things over

:48:52. > :48:54.and be diplomatic, rather than going in this rather adversarial way that

:48:55. > :48:58.we have seen? It is very tempting I am sure for a politician to be

:48:59. > :49:01.adversarial but they do, if they want the best for Somerset, rather

:49:02. > :49:09.than for their own votes, they do need to be thinking about a less

:49:10. > :49:13.adversarial approach. Can I say one thing? Very quickly. I think there

:49:14. > :49:15.is a problem that so many of these responsibilities have been given to

:49:16. > :49:19.quangos. When politicians had direct responsibility, they had to defend

:49:20. > :49:22.the decision that they had made Now, we can pass it on to nominally

:49:23. > :49:26.independent third parties and I think that makes the blame game a

:49:27. > :49:29.good deal worse and cuts out the direct response policy to the

:49:30. > :49:41.politicians. We have to leave it there. I am sorry. Doctor Tim, I

:49:42. > :49:44.appreciate it. Thank you. So how many are being hurt by the Somerset

:49:45. > :49:47.floods? Most certainly tens of thousands. Not because they have

:49:48. > :49:50.been flooded out but because business is suffering. Visitors

:49:51. > :49:53.think the county is a disaster zone so are staying away. With the

:49:54. > :49:55.exception of journalists and politicians, though their presence

:49:56. > :49:58.may not be welcome. It is half term week, which usually

:49:59. > :50:02.brings a welcome influx to places like this. Tourism is worth ?1

:50:03. > :50:07.billion to the county. But 2014 is getting off to a grim start. A local

:50:08. > :50:12.guesthouse reports bookings down a quarter. The owner brings together

:50:13. > :50:16.other local businessmen who are also suffering. We have got a similar

:50:17. > :50:19.problem at the Regal theatre. We have got three shows on, three shows

:50:20. > :50:23.booked for half term, not many people actually coming at the

:50:24. > :50:27.moment. Local people are turning up but the visitors just aren't

:50:28. > :50:31.happening at the moment. People think the whole of Somerset is

:50:32. > :50:34.flooded. You know, we have had so many people who have cancelled

:50:35. > :50:38.coming down because of the floods. As they are using a booking system,

:50:39. > :50:42.we cannot stop them. Other people phoning up to enquire. It is

:50:43. > :50:46.ridiculous. The problem is more acute for places closer to floods.

:50:47. > :50:51.This village says despite reassuring people who phone that they are open,

:50:52. > :50:54.footfall is down. Business leaders say Somerset has got a real image

:50:55. > :50:57.problem. Inevitably, when people think about Somerset, they think

:50:58. > :51:05.about gloomy faces and lifeboats and the Prince sitting on a bench coming

:51:06. > :51:09.to Somerset. They think about water. And they don't think about all the

:51:10. > :51:13.other good things that are happening in the county and all the parts of

:51:14. > :51:16.the county that are functioning pretty well. These are the pictures

:51:17. > :51:20.that have mesmerised for the past month and a half, a sea the size of

:51:21. > :51:25.Bristol covering 80 square kilometres. But for all the dramatic

:51:26. > :51:30.views, the reality is that this is actually around 2% of Somerset. And

:51:31. > :51:34.of course, its thinly populated flood plain. The number of homes

:51:35. > :51:37.that have been flooded is around 100. And while it's been eagerly

:51:38. > :51:42.seized upon by the media, the public view has also been shaped by the

:51:43. > :51:46.procession of visiting politicians. On Monday it was Nick Clegg,

:51:47. > :51:50.following hot on the heels of UKIP leader Nigel Farage, just days after

:51:51. > :51:52.the Prime Minister visited. First on the scene had been Environment

:51:53. > :51:54.Secretary Owen Paterson. the Prime Minister visited. First on

:51:55. > :51:57.the scene had been Environment When he came back on Tuesday, the PM met

:51:58. > :52:00.emergency services and military personnel tackling the floods.

:52:01. > :52:03.he came back on Tuesday, the PM met emergency services and I sent in the

:52:04. > :52:06.Army to help here in Somerset and initially councils said that they

:52:07. > :52:10.didn't need that help. Now they are using that help very effectively and

:52:11. > :52:14.the army are properly stood up here in Somerset, helping repair

:52:15. > :52:18.sandbags, helping local communities. So there will be more military boots

:52:19. > :52:21.on the ground but fewer half term visitors. The bill for dealing with

:52:22. > :52:28.the floods will be huge. Somerset 's laws will be much greater. `` loss.

:52:29. > :52:32.Gawain, should we be applying for help from the European Union? Yes.

:52:33. > :52:36.After all, it's our money. So there are benefits to being in the EU

:52:37. > :52:41.Well, I am not going to say thank you will we give them ?1 and get 50p

:52:42. > :52:44.back. I don't see that as being a good deal. But yes, the money is

:52:45. > :52:48.there and we should be getting it, thank you very much. It's our

:52:49. > :52:51.taxpayers who funded it. Jacob, it is very interesting to see all of

:52:52. > :52:55.the politicians coming down. You always talk about the need for a

:52:56. > :52:58.small state, a state that does not get involved. And yet there is an

:52:59. > :53:02.emergency like this and suddenly David Cameron comes and says, well,

:53:03. > :53:05.money is no object. It doesn't make sense, does it? I think the most

:53:06. > :53:09.important visit was the visit of the Prince of Wales, actually, which

:53:10. > :53:12.made people more that the highest in the land would serve them. I did

:53:13. > :53:16.very much that he actually did that but I thought that really reassured

:53:17. > :53:19.people that the Royal family and the Queen were concerned about what was

:53:20. > :53:23.going on. The British people... I didn't ask you that, Jake! No, I

:53:24. > :53:26.know. In this small state that you have always been asking for,

:53:27. > :53:30.something happens to your people and Somerset and you want the Army and

:53:31. > :53:33.you want money to be no object? Going back to what I was saying

:53:34. > :53:36.about the Environment Agency's report in 2008 and the degree to

:53:37. > :53:40.which they made the situation worse. I do believe in free markets. I

:53:41. > :53:42.believe that if people make a voluntary decisions that have

:53:43. > :53:47.consequences, they must be responsible for those consequences.

:53:48. > :53:50.However, the failure to dredge. . The Somerset Levels have made the

:53:51. > :53:54.problem much worse and therefore, through decisions made by

:53:55. > :53:57.governments, people have suffered. Private companies aren't lining up

:53:58. > :54:02.now, I be, to dredge the rivers and to pump the water out? When there is

:54:03. > :54:06.an emergency, you need the state. You agree? Of course I agree with

:54:07. > :54:10.that. There is a role for the state but... But it has to be a small

:54:11. > :54:14.state when its other people on benefits but a large state when its

:54:15. > :54:17.farmers with airline flooded? `` with their land flooded. I think the

:54:18. > :54:20.two are completely separate things. The state is always there for an

:54:21. > :54:23.emergency. That is the whole point of the welfare system. I support

:54:24. > :54:27.welfare to help people in an emergency situation, when they

:54:28. > :54:29.cannot cope on their own. I don t support the state taking decisions

:54:30. > :54:35.for everybody about how they lead their lives. It's a balance. OK

:54:36. > :54:39.thank you. Well, let'sdim the lights. Feed up the romantic music.

:54:40. > :54:43.Because it's Valentines weekend So a good time to test whether love

:54:44. > :54:48.might be in the air between the Conservatives and UKIP. Here is our

:54:49. > :54:52.very own Cilla Black, Robert Markwell.

:54:53. > :54:56.The surge of UKIP support in last May 's local elections prompted the

:54:57. > :55:00.Conservative member for North East Somerset to drop this political

:55:01. > :55:05.bombshell. Why not do a deal with the Eurosceptic party which appears

:55:06. > :55:08.to be sporting their vote? `` splitting. I think there should be a

:55:09. > :55:12.combined election to say that we support each other across the

:55:13. > :55:15.country. I would like to see Nigel Farage replace Nick Clegg as the

:55:16. > :55:19.deputy premise. `` Deputy Prime Minister. I think that would be a

:55:20. > :55:22.better bet for conservatism and the right wing in British politics. UKIP

:55:23. > :55:25.continued to rain on the Conservatives's parade. They pushed

:55:26. > :55:28.them into third place in another by`election this week. Perhaps

:55:29. > :55:33.that's why support for a deal between the two parties is growing

:55:34. > :55:36.among the Tory grassroots. A survey by the Conservative home website

:55:37. > :55:42.revealed almost half of 1000 activists polled would back a deal

:55:43. > :55:52.with the other side. The PM isn t so sure. I don't believe in pacts and

:55:53. > :55:56.deals. So it is now to Jacob? Jacob has many good ideas, this is not one

:55:57. > :56:00.of them. UKIP has said it would be up to local branches to decide if

:56:01. > :56:03.they wished to field candidates against the Tories. Here in Wales in

:56:04. > :56:06.2010, the UKIP branch defied an order from the then leader, Lord

:56:07. > :56:13.Pearson, and chose to stand anyway. The Tories then lost the seat to the

:56:14. > :56:16.leads Lib Dems by a whisker. Now, with Mr Farage is tipped to top the

:56:17. > :56:19.polls in the European elections more and more Tories believe a

:56:20. > :56:23.special relationship could be the key to keeping the man in Number Ten

:56:24. > :56:26.next year. Well, let's see if there is a romantic atmosphere here.

:56:27. > :56:30.Jacob, your idea of a packed with UKIP, I took it personally to the

:56:31. > :56:34.Prime Minister on your behalf and he said no. Indeed but the week before

:56:35. > :56:38.the election, he was going around saying, " what is the biggest joke

:56:39. > :56:41.in UK politics?" To which the answer was Nick Clegg. So parties have to

:56:42. > :56:44.deal with the reality of electoral situation. The reality of electoral

:56:45. > :56:48.situation is the combined vote of the two right`wing parties is a

:56:49. > :56:54.comfortable majority. If we divide, we risk losing. And yet together, we

:56:55. > :56:57.can achieve the referendum that would give the rich, British

:56:58. > :57:01.people... `` gives the British people. So you're still in favour?

:57:02. > :57:04.Very strongly. And what do you feel about that? We feel that there are

:57:05. > :57:08.more people in the Conservative party who are interested in a packed

:57:09. > :57:12.and people in UKIP. We are on the rise. The only place that I am

:57:13. > :57:16.certain that we have had, you mentioned the idea that we have a

:57:17. > :57:19.party are saying now packed at the top but if the local branch is

:57:20. > :57:23.interested and they think they like the cut of the jet of the sitting MP

:57:24. > :57:26.or whichever then strike. Let's take the example of Wells, where there

:57:27. > :57:31.was the most Eurosceptic Tory MP there. UKIP decided to stand against

:57:32. > :57:36.him. The vote was split, he was out and now there is a Lib Dem who is

:57:37. > :57:40.European in. `` pro`European. Where is the logic? We had a very clear

:57:41. > :57:43.rule about standing down and we did stand down against some. Those who

:57:44. > :57:47.had signed the better off out. Sadly, he had not done so and so

:57:48. > :57:50.therefore the rule that was... So you've got a pro`European in there.

:57:51. > :57:54.Yes, we do for now. Well, that's brilliant then, isn't it? You want

:57:55. > :57:57.to be anti`European but you put .. We believe very strongly, in the

:57:58. > :58:00.case of Wells, the issue of his expenses and the manure heap what

:58:01. > :58:06.was probably more important than the UKIP position. Jacob, a lurch to the

:58:07. > :58:10.right now by the Conservative Party would leave the Lib Dems and Labour

:58:11. > :58:16.as frontrunners to win the election? I don't think they would.

:58:17. > :58:19.If you look at the current polling, the Labour Party is consistently

:58:20. > :58:25.ahead of the Conservatives but not clearly in majority territory. And

:58:26. > :58:30.the Lib Dems have been in freefall since the election but the

:58:31. > :58:35.right`wing vote is 45, 40 6%. `` 46%. That is combined a very healthy

:58:36. > :58:39.majority. Well, Gawain, presumably at some stage we will have to know

:58:40. > :58:43.some UKIP policies. Any idea when that might be, given as Mr Fry says

:58:44. > :58:48.the last manifesto was a load of twaddle. `` Nigel Farage. Yes,

:58:49. > :58:52.indeed. Of course we are going to be launching polishes for the European

:58:53. > :58:54.election. We are going to be fighting the European election under

:58:55. > :58:58.European policies. After that, is over, then we are going to be

:58:59. > :59:01.launching our national manifesto. So we are not going into a European

:59:02. > :59:05.election fighting on a Westminster manifesto. All right, we shall wait

:59:06. > :59:08.with bated breath. Thank you. Well, flooding again dominated the

:59:09. > :59:10.political agenda but that was not all that happened. Here is our

:59:11. > :59:21.round`up in just one minute. Weston`super`Mare and Gloucester had

:59:22. > :59:24.been identified as places needing urgent help with problem drinking.

:59:25. > :59:28.Both places have been designated as local alcohol action areas by the

:59:29. > :59:35.Home Office. It means they will receive extra support in tackling

:59:36. > :59:38.drink fuelled crime. A top European politician has warned

:59:39. > :59:45.British parties to stop pandering to the defaults. That Maxine unfolds.

:59:46. > :59:50.He made the comments on a trip to Bristol. He called for a debate over

:59:51. > :59:53.Europe based on facts and not myths. It has been revealed that Avon and

:59:54. > :59:57.Somerset police has breached data protection laws more often than any

:59:58. > :00:00.other force in the land. Over the last five years, there were almost

:00:01. > :00:05.300 breaches of the rules, like releasing names to the media without

:00:06. > :00:08.permission. And next week sees some of the

:00:09. > :00:11.West's biggest councils set their taxes. Councillors in Somerset and

:00:12. > :00:13.the all gave area will also vote on another round of spending cuts. ``

:00:14. > :00:23.the Avon area. And that's just about it from us

:00:24. > :00:30.this week. Thank you for battling through the rain to be with us

:00:31. > :00:35.today. Whatever the weather, you can stay in touch with this show on the

:00:36. > :00:40.BBCi player or two at. `` Twitter. But now, let's return to London and

:00:41. > :00:48.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

:00:49. > :00:51.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

:00:52. > :00:55.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

:00:56. > :00:58.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

:00:59. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

:01:04. > :01:09.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

:01:10. > :01:14.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

:01:15. > :01:23.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

:01:24. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

:01:34. > :01:38.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

:01:39. > :01:42.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

:01:43. > :01:45.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

:01:46. > :01:49.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

:01:50. > :01:53.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

:01:54. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

:01:58. > :02:01.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

:02:02. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

:02:07. > :02:09.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

:02:10. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

:02:15. > :02:18.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

:02:19. > :02:23.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

:02:24. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

:02:28. > :02:32.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

:02:33. > :02:37.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

:02:38. > :02:41.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

:02:42. > :02:46.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

:02:47. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything

:02:50. > :02:54.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

:02:55. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

:03:07. > :03:16.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

:03:17. > :03:21.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down

:03:22. > :03:24.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

:03:25. > :03:29.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

:03:30. > :03:32.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

:03:33. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

:03:36. > :03:41.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

:03:42. > :03:44.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

:03:45. > :03:48.south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our

:03:49. > :03:54.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

:03:55. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

:04:00. > :04:01.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

:04:02. > :04:06.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

:04:07. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

:04:14. > :04:15.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

:04:16. > :04:20.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

:04:21. > :04:24.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

:04:25. > :04:28.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

:04:29. > :04:31.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

:04:32. > :04:37.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

:04:38. > :04:43.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

:04:44. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

:05:04. > :05:09.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

:05:10. > :05:13.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

:05:14. > :05:16.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

:05:17. > :05:21.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

:05:22. > :05:26.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

:05:27. > :05:31.reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making

:05:32. > :05:34.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

:05:35. > :05:39.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

:05:40. > :05:42.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

:05:43. > :05:46.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

:05:47. > :05:52.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

:05:53. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

:06:02. > :06:06.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

:06:07. > :06:10.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

:06:11. > :06:15.commentator rather than head of communications for a political

:06:16. > :06:21.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

:06:22. > :06:25.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

:06:26. > :06:31.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

:06:32. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

:06:43. > :06:50.longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is

:06:51. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

:06:59. > :07:04.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

:07:05. > :07:09.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

:07:10. > :07:11.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

:07:12. > :07:15.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

:07:16. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

:07:29. > :07:33.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

:07:34. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

:07:54. > :07:57.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

:07:58. > :08:01.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

:08:02. > :08:04.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

:08:05. > :08:08.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

:08:09. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties

:08:22. > :08:26.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

:08:27. > :08:29.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

:08:52. > :08:55.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

:08:56. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories

:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

:09:13. > :09:16.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

:09:17. > :09:20.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

:09:21. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

:09:25. > :09:28.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

:09:29. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

:09:33. > :09:39.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

:09:40. > :09:46.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

:09:47. > :09:53.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,

:09:54. > :09:57.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

:09:58. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

:10:03. > :10:06.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

:10:07. > :10:10.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

:10:11. > :10:15.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

:10:16. > :10:18.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

:10:19. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

:10:25. > :10:31.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

:10:32. > :10:35.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

:10:36. > :10:40.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

:10:41. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

:10:45. > :10:50.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

:10:51. > :10:56.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

:10:57. > :11:00.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

:11:01. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

:11:19. > :11:22.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

:11:23. > :11:28.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

:11:29. > :11:33.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

:11:34. > :11:38.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

:11:39. > :11:42.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

:11:43. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

:11:48. > :11:52.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

:11:53. > :11:59.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

:12:00. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

:12:04. > :12:08.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

:12:09. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

:12:20. > :12:21.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

:12:22. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

:12:40. > :12:45.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

:12:46. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

:12:52. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

:13:05. > :13:07.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

:13:08. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

:13:38. > :13:42.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

:13:43. > :13:44.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.