:00:36. > :00:41.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being
:00:42. > :00:44.re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police
:00:45. > :00:48.custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders
:00:49. > :00:59.of the Troubles. That's our top story.
:01:00. > :01:02.He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious
:01:03. > :01:05.electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative
:01:06. > :01:07.Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.
:01:08. > :01:12.And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best
:01:13. > :01:24.How easy is it to change our likely to be a good
:01:25. > :01:26.How easy is it to change our relationship with the continent?
:01:27. > :01:30.questions of identity, immigration and independence. We have a table
:01:31. > :01:37.full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.
:01:38. > :01:40.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:41. > :01:43.business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:44. > :01:49.throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.
:01:50. > :01:52.First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a
:01:53. > :01:55.fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with
:01:56. > :02:08.the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has
:02:09. > :02:11.claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it
:02:12. > :02:14.does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern
:02:15. > :02:16.Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he
:02:17. > :02:19.might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry
:02:20. > :02:22.Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the
:02:23. > :02:24.most notorious cases of the Troubles.
:02:25. > :02:31.The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December
:02:32. > :02:37.1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in
:02:38. > :02:44.1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the
:02:45. > :02:46.Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes
:02:47. > :02:55.pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:
:02:56. > :03:08.In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the
:03:09. > :03:13.murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent
:03:14. > :03:18.of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs
:03:19. > :03:20.McConville. We were hoping to speak to the
:03:21. > :03:23.Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an
:03:24. > :03:31.interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from
:03:32. > :03:36.Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And
:03:37. > :03:48.the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams
:03:49. > :03:52.said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the
:03:53. > :03:58.police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we
:03:59. > :04:02.have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in
:04:03. > :04:06.what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he
:04:07. > :04:12.wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet
:04:13. > :04:16.that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we
:04:17. > :04:21.believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of
:04:22. > :04:28.people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves
:04:29. > :04:35.that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the
:04:36. > :04:46.moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of
:04:47. > :04:54.the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The
:04:55. > :04:59.PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other
:05:00. > :05:04.high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people
:05:05. > :05:09.has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were
:05:10. > :05:20.interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they
:05:21. > :05:25.have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't
:05:26. > :05:30.got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the
:05:31. > :05:35.PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference
:05:36. > :05:41.in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from
:05:42. > :05:46.the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the
:05:47. > :05:52.peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in
:05:53. > :05:57.local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have
:05:58. > :06:04.powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is
:06:05. > :06:09.a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and
:06:10. > :06:26.making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react
:06:27. > :06:32.if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.
:06:33. > :06:38.If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern
:06:39. > :06:43.Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious
:06:44. > :06:48.ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a
:06:49. > :06:52.very important role to play to support the police service here. We
:06:53. > :06:59.have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will
:07:00. > :07:03.not accept political interference by a small number of people in the
:07:04. > :07:11.police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political
:07:12. > :07:17.policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we
:07:18. > :07:21.have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams
:07:22. > :07:26.being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from
:07:27. > :07:32.the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of
:07:33. > :07:41.evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why
:07:42. > :07:44.should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you
:07:45. > :07:50.expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the
:07:51. > :07:54.matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to
:07:55. > :07:59.Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a
:08:00. > :08:04.range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made
:08:05. > :08:06.from people, including from people who didn't want their statements
:08:07. > :08:17.released until they have died. who didn't want their statements
:08:18. > :08:24.was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process
:08:25. > :08:29.fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and
:08:30. > :08:30.we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and
:08:31. > :08:45.British and privately with the Irish and
:08:46. > :08:47.process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the
:08:48. > :08:53.woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat
:08:54. > :09:01.out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What
:09:02. > :09:06.question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile
:09:07. > :09:12.and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to
:09:13. > :09:19.use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.
:09:20. > :09:24.Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in
:09:25. > :09:29.days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the
:09:30. > :09:32.peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain
:09:33. > :09:38.of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having
:09:39. > :09:42.mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you
:09:43. > :09:46.have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,
:09:47. > :09:57.you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell
:09:58. > :10:00.but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.
:10:01. > :10:08.Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no
:10:09. > :10:15.action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a
:10:16. > :10:23.one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by
:10:24. > :10:26.the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these
:10:27. > :10:31.inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with
:10:32. > :10:35.the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of
:10:36. > :10:40.real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping
:10:41. > :10:44.he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if
:10:45. > :10:53.everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of
:10:54. > :10:56.the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster
:10:57. > :11:05.to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees
:11:06. > :11:08.himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern
:11:09. > :11:13.Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very
:11:14. > :11:19.revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble
:11:20. > :11:24.Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared
:11:25. > :11:27.don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the
:11:28. > :11:33.Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which
:11:34. > :11:38.it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during
:11:39. > :11:42.the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to
:11:43. > :11:50.tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and
:11:51. > :11:57.military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for
:11:58. > :12:01.the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the
:12:02. > :12:08.confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if
:12:09. > :12:20.even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave
:12:21. > :12:23.it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election
:12:24. > :12:26.campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning
:12:27. > :12:29.local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of
:12:30. > :12:32.the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his
:12:33. > :12:35.promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.
:12:36. > :12:38.And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with
:12:39. > :12:43.Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the
:12:44. > :12:50.UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show
:12:51. > :12:55.this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague
:12:56. > :13:01.promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any
:13:02. > :13:08.intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband
:13:09. > :13:12.wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the
:13:13. > :13:17.last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can
:13:18. > :13:22.to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they
:13:23. > :13:34.invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined
:13:35. > :13:40.now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not
:13:41. > :13:43.without problems, they took place during the campaign period and
:13:44. > :13:50.disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people
:13:51. > :13:53.getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be
:13:54. > :13:59.helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of
:14:00. > :14:05.the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is
:14:06. > :14:09.not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be
:14:10. > :14:15.negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should
:14:16. > :14:23.have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that
:14:24. > :14:28.will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,
:14:29. > :14:36.the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election
:14:37. > :14:45.campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than
:14:46. > :14:49.local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically
:14:50. > :14:56.important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for
:14:57. > :14:59.example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this
:15:00. > :15:04.Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the
:15:05. > :15:11.previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?
:15:12. > :15:20.Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.
:15:21. > :15:24.There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local
:15:25. > :15:29.elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what
:15:30. > :15:33.you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.
:15:34. > :15:38.But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know
:15:39. > :15:42.that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --
:15:43. > :15:51.Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so
:15:52. > :15:54.people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does
:15:55. > :15:58.the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already
:15:59. > :16:05.promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it
:16:06. > :16:09.before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really
:16:10. > :16:13.trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless
:16:14. > :16:18.you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an
:16:19. > :16:22.in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at
:16:23. > :16:29.which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It
:16:30. > :16:32.is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,
:16:33. > :16:37.that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was
:16:38. > :16:45.no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There
:16:46. > :16:53.was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that
:16:54. > :16:57.up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will
:16:58. > :17:02.have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty
:17:03. > :17:07.had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a
:17:08. > :17:13.referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,
:17:14. > :17:17.having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our
:17:18. > :17:23.relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in
:17:24. > :17:27.this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,
:17:28. > :17:31.most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not
:17:32. > :17:39.what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing
:17:40. > :17:42.in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more
:17:43. > :17:46.of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and
:17:47. > :17:52.people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been
:17:53. > :17:55.looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are
:17:56. > :18:03.considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message
:18:04. > :18:12.here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are
:18:13. > :18:16.likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making
:18:17. > :18:21.these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us
:18:22. > :18:26.further away from returning powers to this country, further from a
:18:27. > :18:30.referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,
:18:31. > :18:34.and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,
:18:35. > :18:39.and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so
:18:40. > :18:43.over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people
:18:44. > :18:48.considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do
:18:49. > :18:52.not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to
:18:53. > :18:57.tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years
:18:58. > :19:02.ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU
:19:03. > :19:06.budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us
:19:07. > :19:10.into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a
:19:11. > :19:14.referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe
:19:15. > :19:18.it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising
:19:19. > :19:21.and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote
:19:22. > :19:26.Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in
:19:27. > :19:31.Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission
:19:32. > :19:36.has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and
:19:37. > :19:42.vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It
:19:43. > :19:46.goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed
:19:47. > :19:50.that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said
:19:51. > :19:55.they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they
:19:56. > :20:01.regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.
:20:02. > :20:10.What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step
:20:11. > :20:18.further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When
:20:19. > :20:23.people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the
:20:24. > :20:28.MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above
:20:29. > :20:32.left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not
:20:33. > :20:37.delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote
:20:38. > :20:41.in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to
:20:42. > :20:47.the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this
:20:48. > :20:50.economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared
:20:51. > :20:57.to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active
:20:58. > :21:03.Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued
:21:04. > :21:06.by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country
:21:07. > :21:13.meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last
:21:14. > :21:19.weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and
:21:20. > :21:23.local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who
:21:24. > :21:31.says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of
:21:32. > :21:40.say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,
:21:41. > :21:45.you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to
:21:46. > :21:52.Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you
:21:53. > :21:56.must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your
:21:57. > :22:01.members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time
:22:02. > :22:06.travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,
:22:07. > :22:11.where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps
:22:12. > :22:16.pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting
:22:17. > :22:21.Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,
:22:22. > :22:25.Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a
:22:26. > :22:34.YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,
:22:35. > :22:40.Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP
:22:41. > :22:47.4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?
:22:48. > :22:51.Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local
:22:52. > :22:54.elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say
:22:55. > :22:57.what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local
:22:58. > :23:01.elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried
:23:02. > :23:06.to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not
:23:07. > :23:09.unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a
:23:10. > :23:12.European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has
:23:13. > :23:15.been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example
:23:16. > :23:22.every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000
:23:23. > :23:25.back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We
:23:26. > :23:30.are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to
:23:31. > :23:44.tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop
:23:45. > :23:54.banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last
:23:55. > :23:59.general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't
:24:00. > :24:03.win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it
:24:04. > :24:10.doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out
:24:11. > :24:14.to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the
:24:15. > :24:17.voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before
:24:18. > :24:24.the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point
:24:25. > :24:28.that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a
:24:29. > :24:34.politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over
:24:35. > :24:39.a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look
:24:40. > :24:44.at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket
:24:45. > :24:49.case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting
:24:50. > :24:53.every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the
:24:54. > :24:57.developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the
:24:58. > :25:01.people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the
:25:02. > :25:05.right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car
:25:06. > :25:10.keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a
:25:11. > :25:15.pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting
:25:16. > :25:22.through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this
:25:23. > :25:26.morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do
:25:27. > :25:33.you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any
:25:34. > :25:41.kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,
:25:42. > :25:54.expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants
:25:55. > :25:58.to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He
:25:59. > :26:10.wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there
:26:11. > :26:14.be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people
:26:15. > :26:20.have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been
:26:21. > :26:25.very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests
:26:26. > :26:29.that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American
:26:30. > :26:33.project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to
:26:34. > :26:37.be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,
:26:38. > :26:41.thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal
:26:42. > :26:44.Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row
:26:45. > :26:51.with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with
:26:52. > :26:55.Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on
:26:56. > :26:59.a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the
:27:00. > :27:03.train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local
:27:04. > :27:08.government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the
:27:09. > :27:14.Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have
:27:15. > :27:19.prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain
:27:20. > :27:22.in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of
:27:23. > :27:31.many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he
:27:32. > :27:35.is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in
:27:36. > :27:42.making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting
:27:43. > :27:45.role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British
:27:46. > :27:52.criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted
:27:53. > :27:55.prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out
:27:56. > :28:01.everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,
:28:02. > :28:07.being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find
:28:08. > :28:10.you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because
:28:11. > :28:13.you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that
:28:14. > :28:19.you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost
:28:20. > :28:23.impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of
:28:24. > :28:27.Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,
:28:28. > :28:33.inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has
:28:34. > :28:37.demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a
:28:38. > :28:42.lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you
:28:43. > :28:47.and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime
:28:48. > :28:53.Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,
:28:54. > :28:58.I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from
:28:59. > :29:06.Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?
:29:07. > :29:11.No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where
:29:12. > :29:19.has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the
:29:20. > :29:23.morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any
:29:24. > :29:27.kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This
:29:28. > :29:34.is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems
:29:35. > :29:39.pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full
:29:40. > :29:43.bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is
:29:44. > :29:53.taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a
:29:54. > :29:57.health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for
:29:58. > :30:02.dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick
:30:03. > :30:07.Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has
:30:08. > :30:12.to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting
:30:13. > :30:23.that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of
:30:24. > :30:27.warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by
:30:28. > :30:37.catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about
:30:38. > :30:42.knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the
:30:43. > :30:47.Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses
:30:48. > :30:53.share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing
:30:54. > :30:56.to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the
:30:57. > :31:04.week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most
:31:05. > :31:08.likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can
:31:09. > :31:14.guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been
:31:15. > :31:20.confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great
:31:21. > :31:26.for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride
:31:27. > :31:32.home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce
:31:33. > :31:38.joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely
:31:39. > :31:42.to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what
:31:43. > :31:46.would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe
:31:47. > :31:53.credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the
:31:54. > :31:59.most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think
:32:00. > :32:07.the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions
:32:08. > :32:11.that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as
:32:12. > :32:15.the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on
:32:16. > :32:21.about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do
:32:22. > :32:32.think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely
:32:33. > :32:37.hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out
:32:38. > :32:42.there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried
:32:43. > :32:47.that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we
:32:48. > :32:52.want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you
:32:53. > :32:58.lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will
:32:59. > :33:02.be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been
:33:03. > :33:10.spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the
:33:11. > :33:14.European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten
:33:15. > :33:20.years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership
:33:21. > :33:24.and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every
:33:25. > :33:30.developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe
:33:31. > :33:34.may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are
:33:35. > :33:42.going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence
:33:43. > :33:47.to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is
:33:48. > :33:53.something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004
:33:54. > :33:58.manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job
:33:59. > :34:06.losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?
:34:07. > :34:13.Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any
:34:14. > :34:17.rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never
:34:18. > :34:23.recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had
:34:24. > :34:29.not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...
:34:30. > :34:35.Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy
:34:36. > :34:40.is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control
:34:41. > :34:50.over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have
:34:51. > :34:54.always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It
:34:55. > :35:01.hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We
:35:02. > :35:06.recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are
:35:07. > :35:14.not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I
:35:15. > :35:19.didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an
:35:20. > :35:28.entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there
:35:29. > :35:32.will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we
:35:33. > :35:37.are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get
:35:38. > :35:42.this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of
:35:43. > :35:46.jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the
:35:47. > :35:52.Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of
:35:53. > :35:57.deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it
:35:58. > :36:01.out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are
:36:02. > :36:07.working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery
:36:08. > :36:12.for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that
:36:13. > :36:17.have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would
:36:18. > :36:24.the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You
:36:25. > :36:28.have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling
:36:29. > :36:32.to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough
:36:33. > :36:39.single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,
:36:40. > :36:44.Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what
:36:45. > :36:48.you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by
:36:49. > :36:55.consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be
:36:56. > :37:01.transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You
:37:02. > :37:04.have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more
:37:05. > :37:11.centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would
:37:12. > :37:14.join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all
:37:15. > :37:21.member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not
:37:22. > :37:27.envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud
:37:28. > :37:34.party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?
:37:35. > :37:39.Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is
:37:40. > :37:43.dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are
:37:44. > :37:47.not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the
:37:48. > :37:51.instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to
:37:52. > :38:01.withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you
:38:02. > :38:05.want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it
:38:06. > :38:10.out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the
:38:11. > :38:18.general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the
:38:19. > :38:24.middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's
:38:25. > :38:29.the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a
:38:30. > :38:34.deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of
:38:35. > :38:40.it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which
:38:41. > :38:43.is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds
:38:44. > :38:47.and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the
:38:48. > :38:51.same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with
:38:52. > :38:59.others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,
:39:00. > :39:02.their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We
:39:03. > :39:11.say goodbye to viewers in Scotland now.
:39:12. > :39:16.Hello and welcome to the West Country part of the show on this
:39:17. > :39:20.bank holiday weekend. Coming up, we'll be taking a health check of
:39:21. > :39:25.the NHS, one year after the biggest changes in its history. And what do
:39:26. > :39:28.you get when you ask half a dozen Conservative MPs to write down the
:39:29. > :39:31.powers they'd like back from Brussels? We'll explore if David
:39:32. > :39:41.Cameron has the "je ne sais quoi" needed to unite his troops.
:39:42. > :39:44.First, let's meet our guests. They are the Conservative MP for North
:39:45. > :39:47.Wiltshire, James Gray, and the Independent Mayor of Bristol, George
:39:48. > :40:06.Ferguson. Let's start with that announcement from Labour over
:40:07. > :40:10.capping rent rises for tenants. I have written a lot about housing. Is
:40:11. > :40:14.a sense that there is more demand and supply, and therefore rent is
:40:15. > :40:19.becoming unaffordable for some people. So I do think we need to
:40:20. > :40:27.look at the way we can give access to people who are more vulnerable,
:40:28. > :40:30.who are unable to afford rent, and an awful lot of people who are not
:40:31. > :40:37.housed who we have to deal with people dealing with short tenancies.
:40:38. > :40:45.And Bristol is packed with buy to let properties. Absolutely. The
:40:46. > :40:50.devil will be in the detail. James, has Ed Miliband got the upper hand
:40:51. > :40:54.again by talking about the cost`of`living crisis and appealing
:40:55. > :41:00.to a lot of bubble in rented accommodation and want protection?
:41:01. > :41:06.It is old`fashioned socialism, you cannot control rent any more than
:41:07. > :41:15.you can control energy, which is the last attempt to curry favour with
:41:16. > :41:20.voters. To say to a landlord, you cannot increase your rent by more
:41:21. > :41:25.than a certain percent per year, why shouldn't you? It is their property
:41:26. > :41:33.and they bought it. But you could have the tenant over the barrel. But
:41:34. > :41:42.you do anyway. The Socialists used to protect people, they controlled
:41:43. > :41:48.rent a lot of years ago, and in `` it never worked. If I charge too
:41:49. > :41:51.much, my tenant leaves and I get someone else. At the central
:41:52. > :41:56.government trying to control how much I charge is absurd.
:41:57. > :42:01.It's been a year since GPs were put in charge of a large chunk of the
:42:02. > :42:05.NHS budget and ` for some ` it has not been an easy start. As well as
:42:06. > :42:07.having to make huge savings, the Clinical Commissioning Groups that
:42:08. > :42:10.doctors run are facing legal challenges over how they spend their
:42:11. > :42:15.money. Here's our Health Correspondent Matthew Hill.
:42:16. > :42:19.Dr Matthew Dolman used to spend more time with patients in his local town
:42:20. > :42:33.of Axbridge. Here he is back doing the rounds. But now it's more likely
:42:34. > :42:37.he'll be found here. He chairs a group of fellow GPs who now have to
:42:38. > :42:40.choose where to spend money on health services. It follows the
:42:41. > :42:43.biggest overhaul of the NHS in its history. Up until a year ago,
:42:44. > :42:46.managers working for the Primary Care Trust would commission services
:42:47. > :42:49.like emergency care, hospital treatment and mental health
:42:50. > :42:55.services. Now that work is done by GPs on Clinical Commissioning Groups
:42:56. > :43:02.or CCGs. And the budgets are huge. In Somerset alone Dr Dolman's CCG
:43:03. > :43:05.has ?650m to spend. The government says these groups are more in tune
:43:06. > :43:09.with the needs of their area but critics say doctors don't have the
:43:10. > :43:20.time or training to take on such an important role. It is an enormous
:43:21. > :43:26.task in trying to support the health and social care services as we move
:43:27. > :43:37.forward in an incredibly challenging financial environment.
:43:38. > :43:40.The financial challenge that Dr Dolman faces is that the group has
:43:41. > :43:44.to make savings of ?500 million over the next five years. That's ?40
:43:45. > :43:48.million a year. And it seems likely that one of the avenues they are
:43:49. > :43:51.going to have to explore is how they're going to use community
:43:52. > :43:54.hospitals. With around a quarter of beds in the county's community
:43:55. > :43:58.hospitals lying empty, the Somerset CCG has decided to mothball some `
:43:59. > :44:01.like here in Shepton Mallett. The CCG argues patients like Mike Sale
:44:02. > :44:10.are better off being treated at home. But fundraisers fear it's the
:44:11. > :44:15.start of a slippery slope. Yes, they will probably get 40 minutes a day
:44:16. > :44:20.from an occupational therapist or physiotherapist, but for the other
:44:21. > :44:24.23 hours, they will be dependent on what? Social services? Another CCG
:44:25. > :44:27.in the West faces more than just criticism. In Bristol these
:44:28. > :44:36.campaigners are taking legal action to fighting plans to contract out
:44:37. > :44:41.NHS services to private companies. It is time for the CCG to stop
:44:42. > :44:44.defending the indefensible and put transparent arrangements in place
:44:45. > :44:54.that explains to patients precisely how they will be involved in all the
:44:55. > :44:57.decision`making by the CCG. Campaigners say this is the faceless
:44:58. > :45:01.and unaccountable new NHS, which has no safety net in place to make sure
:45:02. > :45:06.patients are consulted properly on any changes.
:45:07. > :45:14.In a statement, the CCG say they take their commitment to the public
:45:15. > :45:23.very seriously but they maintain flexibility over the extent of
:45:24. > :45:26.consultation and exercise. GPs may not be used to patients questioning
:45:27. > :45:30.their decisions. But as their budgets become tighter and tighter,
:45:31. > :45:31.it seems they may have to get used to having their judgement
:45:32. > :45:35.challenged. Well, we did ask to speak to a
:45:36. > :45:42.Health Minister or indeed any chair of a local CCG but no`one was
:45:43. > :45:45.available. We can, though, talk to Mike Campbell from the campaign
:45:46. > :45:48.group Protect Our NHS which is taking its legal challenge against
:45:49. > :45:53.the Bristol CCG to the High Court. Why shouldn't we trust our GPs to
:45:54. > :45:59.make the right decisions? This is not about not trusting them to make
:46:00. > :46:08.these decisions. We need to look at this in the context of the
:46:09. > :46:14.reorganisation of the NHS. So what is the problem? Mr Cameron said
:46:15. > :46:19.there would be no top`down reorganisation of the NHS, and at a
:46:20. > :46:23.cost of ?3 billion we have massive reorganisation. We have a situation
:46:24. > :46:29.where the Secretary of State was my duty to helping a National Health
:46:30. > :46:36.Service has been abolished. We have increasing competition, health
:46:37. > :46:41.services being privatised... People still go to the GPs and then get
:46:42. > :46:48.referred to hospital, which is free, so what is the problem? The idea of
:46:49. > :46:57.giving patients more choice has become more and more confusing. I
:46:58. > :47:01.was speaking to a GP last night, and he says they often do not know where
:47:02. > :47:12.they are faring a patient because there are so many options. Is this
:47:13. > :47:17.mess? Many years ago, people complained and said they should
:47:18. > :47:28.bring back the doctors running the NHS, and that is what this has done.
:47:29. > :47:36.We got rid of lots and lots of pen pushers, the doctors and nurses
:47:37. > :47:38.hacking charge. But what has happened as there has been an
:47:39. > :47:46.increase in bureaucracy since the health and social care act. But do
:47:47. > :47:51.you want to unpick it? I am seeing a massive organisation has put more
:47:52. > :47:57.pressure on GPs, health care workers and patients. Waiting lists are
:47:58. > :48:05.longer. And you are in charge of public health now in Bristol? Yes, I
:48:06. > :48:11.have a great fan of the NHS. We had to move to a system that was much
:48:12. > :48:21.more joined up. I am very keen on us looking after early intervention, so
:48:22. > :48:30.that we reduce the problem early on. Does this allow you to do that? It
:48:31. > :48:37.does. But by shifting... But by shifting this across... I think it
:48:38. > :48:42.has improved the way we look after people. If you go to your doctor and
:48:43. > :48:46.say you have a bad back, do you not want your GP to be concentrating on
:48:47. > :48:54.your body rather than getting him out to do a deal with the hospital?
:48:55. > :48:59.Now, the number of GPs in the NHS are relatively small. Most
:49:00. > :49:03.consultants are still doing their proper daytime job. The National
:49:04. > :49:11.Health Service should be free. That is the only important thing about
:49:12. > :49:15.it. I think the National Health Service is the best we have got in
:49:16. > :49:23.the world, and the way we run it is rather good. Thank you very much for
:49:24. > :49:29.coming in. It was another good week for UKIP.
:49:30. > :49:33.They came top in an opinion poll ahead of the European elections. But
:49:34. > :49:38.while they want out of Europe, David Cameron is trying to strike a new
:49:39. > :49:45.deal with the continent. Can negotiations on such a huge scale of
:49:46. > :49:51.work? `` ever work? Four party leader swept through the West in as
:49:52. > :49:55.many days. But as different as they may be politically, each were united
:49:56. > :49:59.in condemning the Prime Minister was a European pledge, to try to take
:50:00. > :50:03.back power from Brussels. Whether it was the pro`European Lib
:50:04. > :50:10.Dems... David Cameron is trying to paper over the cracks. The
:50:11. > :50:18.anti`European UKIP. Why would anyone believe anything they say? The
:50:19. > :50:27.Conservatives offered a divided arty. If you think about what David
:50:28. > :50:43.Cameron wants, we are 180 degrees in the other direction. After a brief
:50:44. > :50:49.battle with the flip chart, we were ready to compile a list of what they
:50:50. > :50:53.want back. They came and they wrote, and they wrote, and they wrote some
:50:54. > :51:09.more. Some of it was easy to understand. Now, to the EU army. And
:51:10. > :51:16.Napoleonic code system trying to work. We had five West Country MPs
:51:17. > :51:21.contribute to this, but you can see the length of the list. There are
:51:22. > :51:28.some themes here, benefits comes up time and time again, but there are
:51:29. > :51:32.some specific details that Mr Cameron has to take on board,
:51:33. > :51:45.Habitat directive, fisheries, insurance, law and order, the Prime
:51:46. > :51:51.Minister will have his work cut out. First ahead to the road. The first
:51:52. > :52:00.place, the European commission representation. Most of these things
:52:01. > :52:05.can be achieved with our friends in Europe. These things are exactly
:52:06. > :52:12.what the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedes, they have already signed up
:52:13. > :52:15.to it. These are things that can be achieved but they do not have to be
:52:16. > :52:21.achieved by separating, they can be achieved by reform with our friends.
:52:22. > :52:26.But others don't trying to renegotiate with 27 other countries
:52:27. > :52:32.would ever be that simple. This chairman beats the think tank
:52:33. > :52:37.founded by Margaret Thatcher. Bashed the Eurosceptic think tank. The
:52:38. > :52:44.French president said it cannot work. There has to be some changes
:52:45. > :52:48.to some directives, but for significant changes, the West
:52:49. > :52:52.Country MPs have talked about immigration, restricting courts
:52:53. > :53:04.interfering in our affairs, it cannot happen. Reform may not be as
:53:05. > :53:13.easy as some make out, and while the argument over what can and can't be
:53:14. > :53:25.achieved goes on, one man is happy to debate it, Nigel Farage.
:53:26. > :53:32.Renegotiation is a pipe dream, isn't it? It is not, it is extremely
:53:33. > :53:36.important. In all my years in politics, everyone wanted a free
:53:37. > :53:40.trade area. We need to bring back a lot of power to the European Union
:53:41. > :53:45.and reorganise the architecture of the European Union. We have got to
:53:46. > :53:51.battle for those things and at the end of this, if we do not get it,
:53:52. > :54:05.people have the opportunity to say yes or no. So when can we say that
:54:06. > :54:19.that we have got it and we need the public to make a decision? We will
:54:20. > :54:24.either... We are the only party who will offer the referendum. No one
:54:25. > :54:33.else can do it. We need to vote Conservative to get that referendum.
:54:34. > :54:40.And you are man very keen on Europe? Bristol has done very well out of
:54:41. > :55:36.Europe. Before I became the Mayor of Bristol,
:55:37. > :55:44.it is ahead of office, very grandly titled. There is no deputy. If
:55:45. > :55:58.Bristol is not well represented, we will miss out. There is a trillion
:55:59. > :56:04.European funds available. How much are you paying for the desk and the
:56:05. > :56:17.person? The desk is 4000, but I do not know how much the person will
:56:18. > :56:21.be, it depends on the person. Let us bring back to broader issue. You can
:56:22. > :56:35.be as Eurosceptic as you like, so why are you bothering to try to
:56:36. > :56:40.defend this? Mr Farage cannot deliver the referendum. Only a
:56:41. > :56:45.Conservative government can offer a referendum. Either we will be
:56:46. > :56:52.negotiate the terms of trade or we will vote and campaign to leave. But
:56:53. > :57:03.they could skewer you at the next elections? I do not think so.
:57:04. > :57:06.There will only be eight choices on your ballot paper for the European
:57:07. > :57:10.elections ` down from 17 last time around. And to help you make your
:57:11. > :57:13.make your mind up, we've asked all eight parties to pitch for your
:57:14. > :57:25.votes. Here are four, in no particular order.
:57:26. > :57:28.The European elections are on the 22nd of May, not a referendum on the
:57:29. > :57:35.membership of the union, they are about who will stand up for the
:57:36. > :57:38.people of this region. If I elected, my priorities will be to
:57:39. > :57:47.bring good quality jobs to this region. It will be to make sure that
:57:48. > :57:52.we become world leaders on new green technologies that our region is rich
:57:53. > :57:59.in opportunity for. And it is to have secure jobs for this region.
:58:00. > :58:05.Good employment rights. What we stand for is an end to the burden of
:58:06. > :58:15.EU regulation on the British economy. It is the laws that we here
:58:16. > :58:18.in blood and others do not. When we leave the EU, we will be able to
:58:19. > :58:23.make our own trade agreements with the outside world. For example, New
:58:24. > :58:31.Zealand has a trade agreement with China. 75% of our laws are made in
:58:32. > :58:40.Brussels. Artist to many. We want an end to open borders. The Green party
:58:41. > :58:44.are positive about Europe. We value the way that Europe protect the
:58:45. > :58:51.quality, water quality, conditions at work and animal welfare. However
:58:52. > :58:54.we know that things need reform, particularly the power of
:58:55. > :59:08.corporations, and we need to make Europe and politicians work better
:59:09. > :59:14.the common good. We have had enough of interference in trade and
:59:15. > :59:18.industry by the EU. Farming as a way of life no longer exists, and even
:59:19. > :59:23.where farmers are successful, they have do operate in a way that often
:59:24. > :59:26.involves too much red tape. We need to re`engaging the Commonwealth, the
:59:27. > :59:31.Commonwealth that stretches across the world. 53 countries that are
:59:32. > :59:42.willing to do trade with us and offered us much more opportunity
:59:43. > :59:45.than the EU has ever done. And we'll feature the remaining four
:59:46. > :59:49.parties in our programme next week. Now, let's take a look back at the
:59:50. > :59:54.political week in our 60 Second round`up.
:59:55. > :59:57.Politicians and union leaders and ordinary people gathered in Bristol
:59:58. > :00:01.to remember the life of the city's former MP Tony Benn. His son Hilary
:00:02. > :00:08.was among those at the service which opened with a union anthem.
:00:09. > :00:12.It was a good week for motorists in Bath. Over a quarter of a million
:00:13. > :00:16.pounds will be refunded to those who have fallen foul of the Dorchester
:00:17. > :00:21.Street bus gate. The council admitted its own warning signs were
:00:22. > :00:25.not clear enough. The Church of England showed that it
:00:26. > :00:28.too can move in mysterious ways. It reversed a decision over the living
:00:29. > :00:32.arrangements for the new Bishop of Bath and Wells. The Right Reverend
:00:33. > :00:37.Peter Hancock will now live in the Bishop's Palace and not a rectory
:00:38. > :00:40.nearby. And the Mayor of Bristol's drive to Make Sundays Special
:00:41. > :00:43.returns today. Roads have been closed off to make way for street
:00:44. > :00:46.performers. Around 100,000 people applied for tickets for the main
:00:47. > :00:57.attraction ` a giant water`slide down Park Street.
:00:58. > :01:05.By the time you watch this, you might be sliding down Park Street.
:01:06. > :01:11.Will you have a goal? I gave the job to the youth candidates, because
:01:12. > :01:19.that is more appropriate. I think my biggest fear is the size of the
:01:20. > :01:25.cloud. Go to all these other things, there are food festivals, millennium
:01:26. > :01:31.Square, folk Festival, Bristol is alive with activity today. Do you
:01:32. > :01:33.get the feeling that Bristol is leading the region in terms of
:01:34. > :01:39.leisure activities and cultural stuff? It has always been a great
:01:40. > :01:44.city. My son was at university he. It is a very young and happening
:01:45. > :01:55.place. I do not get to come here very often. I think North Wiltshire
:01:56. > :01:58.lead the region, though! And that is all we have time for this week.
:01:59. > :02:02.Thank you to our guests James Gray and George Ferguson for making our
:02:03. > :02:05.Sunday special. We'll be back with more build`up to the European and
:02:06. > :02:07.local elections next week. If you can't
:02:08. > :02:13.got time for this week. Next week, London's local elections.
:02:14. > :02:18.Welcome back. Now, the Government is not very good at predicting the
:02:19. > :02:21.future. That's according to a report from a committee of MPs this morning
:02:22. > :02:24.who say that its Horizon Scanning programme that's supposed to
:02:25. > :02:26.identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities
:02:27. > :02:33.isn't much good at reading the tea leaves. But can it really be any
:02:34. > :02:35.worse than our panel? Here they are predicting the future of then
:02:36. > :02:46.culture secretary Maria Miller before Easter.
:02:47. > :02:51.Can she survive? I'm getting out of the prediction game after I said
:02:52. > :02:57.Nick Clegg would win the debates. But I almost think she might. If
:02:58. > :03:03.there is a big event that moves this off the front pages. David Cameron
:03:04. > :03:10.will want to keep Maria Miller until at least his summary shuffle. I
:03:11. > :03:16.think they will get rid of her. I think they will do the decent thing
:03:17. > :03:22.after exhausting all other options. Maria Miller resigned a few days
:03:23. > :03:29.later of course! The best and the brightest, when did that slip in?
:03:30. > :03:32.This week it will be exactly a year until the General Election, so what
:03:33. > :03:41.better time to get our panel to gaze into their crystal balls again.
:03:42. > :03:47.What's the outcome of the election in 2015? I'm going to go with the
:03:48. > :03:53.polls and say Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister. But the polls are
:03:54. > :04:01.only a snapshot of opinion now, you think they will be the same in a
:04:02. > :04:06.year? No, I think they will narrow. I think UKIP's vote share will fall.
:04:07. > :04:12.I think they are currently coasting on a high and that will tailor way
:04:13. > :04:22.so they won't take as many votes off the Tories. Labour with a majority
:04:23. > :04:28.or is the largest party. Another liberal Conservative coalition, and
:04:29. > :04:33.I say that because he is already in touching distance of Labour. I don't
:04:34. > :04:38.think UKIP will get 15, maybe half of that, and most of the votes they
:04:39. > :04:42.lose will either not vote at all go to the Tories and that should be
:04:43. > :04:48.enough to be the biggest party in a hung parliament I don't envisage a
:04:49. > :04:52.Tory majority. I am also going to go with the polls. For Ed Miliband to
:04:53. > :04:59.be hoping to win at this stage, he has got to be way ahead in the
:05:00. > :05:04.polls. Labour needs to be much further ahead if he is going to win
:05:05. > :05:08.so David Cameron, probably the leader of the largest party. Last
:05:09. > :05:12.time after the election David Cameron went to the 1922 committee
:05:13. > :05:16.and announced he was Prime Minister as head of the Coalition. He has
:05:17. > :05:20.agreed this time he will consult them and it will be much more
:05:21. > :05:27.difficult for him to get a coalition. People at home have now
:05:28. > :05:33.concluded there will be a Liberal Democrat landslide! Are we going to
:05:34. > :05:38.have debates? Yes, probably further away from polling day then last
:05:39. > :05:45.time. That is the Liberal Democrat point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all
:05:46. > :05:49.the life out of the campaign, so the last six weeks will be left to
:05:50. > :05:55.traditional campaigning. What did you make of this in the Sunday Times
:05:56. > :06:02.this morning, this two, three, five formula. There should be a Cameron,
:06:03. > :06:15.Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then there should be another one with
:06:16. > :06:22.them and UKIP and the Greens. It might be testing the patience of the
:06:23. > :06:25.nation to tune into all of those. If you're going to say Nigel Farage
:06:26. > :06:30.should be there, the Green party should be too. They know that as
:06:31. > :06:38.soon as you put them on a podium next to them, he looks like he has
:06:39. > :06:42.equal stature and that is a problem. David Cameron does not want the
:06:43. > :06:47.debates to happen on the way they happened last time. It is generally
:06:48. > :06:51.regarded, Lynton Crosby believes they were a disaster for David
:06:52. > :06:57.Cameron because they allowed Nick Clegg to be the fresh person. He
:06:58. > :07:01.knows he cannot say no to them so the moment you see David Cameron
:07:02. > :07:06.suggesting that Caroline Lucas should be in the debate, you know he
:07:07. > :07:11.is not serious. What he will try to do is have more debates, have them
:07:12. > :07:13.outside the main part of the general election so that it doesn't
:07:14. > :07:21.dominate. The problem the David Cameron is that the campaign will be
:07:22. > :07:25.much longer. It is a five-week campaign so it is quite difficult
:07:26. > :07:29.for him to say we will only have one debate in that campaign. I think
:07:30. > :07:34.smother it with love, hopefully it will go to the courts for him and
:07:35. > :07:39.hopefully they will never happen and he will be delighted. The European
:07:40. > :07:44.election and the local elections are coming up. The three mainstream
:07:45. > :07:50.parties are saying it is a flash in the pan, they don't really matter
:07:51. > :07:54.and so on, but if UKIP comes a strong first, if Labour comes a poor
:07:55. > :08:00.second and the Tories come a poor third, it will have consequences for
:08:01. > :08:06.all three, and the Lib Dems come forth or even fish. It will have
:08:07. > :08:09.consequences and not just in the media but on the ground. One of the
:08:10. > :08:15.big stories is what will happen to the Lib Dems, they face losing all
:08:16. > :08:22.of their MEPs. A good result for them is lit -- in the local
:08:23. > :08:26.elections is losing 250 councillors. These are the most interesting
:08:27. > :08:33.elections we have had for some time. Are we heading for a Nick
:08:34. > :08:36.Clegg summer leadership crisis? I think we are heading towards
:08:37. > :08:40.reversing the clock back to where we were before the Eastleigh
:08:41. > :08:46.by-election. That quiet and things down for Nick Clegg. If they lose
:08:47. > :08:50.all their MEPs, and there is a real chance they will, Vince Cable will
:08:51. > :08:57.be out on manoeuvres because age is not on his side. If he can say Nick
:08:58. > :09:03.Clegg is a loser and a failure, he will be back. Will the Tories go
:09:04. > :09:19.into headless chicken mode if they come third? Yes, if UKIP come first
:09:20. > :09:25.there will not be as much panic as if Labour come first. Is Labour
:09:26. > :09:28.comes a poor second, will there be some pressure on Ed Miliband to
:09:29. > :09:34.reopen his attitude to the referendum? I don't think so and my
:09:35. > :09:38.colleague was talking to Labour sources who said he is absolutely
:09:39. > :09:42.not going to. That is something you can say definitely about him, he
:09:43. > :09:48.decides on a course and he sticks to it. There is one potential upside
:09:49. > :09:51.for David Cameron in a really bad Conservative results, it could
:09:52. > :09:56.strengthen his hand in the renegotiations of Britain's EU
:09:57. > :10:05.membership because he doesn't even need to say to Angela Merkel and
:10:06. > :10:08.Francois Hollande it is there. David Cameron hasn't just been fighting
:10:09. > :10:12.for his party into the local elections. He also got his knuckles
:10:13. > :10:16.wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow, at Prime Minister's Question Time,
:10:17. > :10:23.for talking for too long. Take a look at this. There is a better
:10:24. > :10:28.future ahead of us but we must not go backward to the policies that put
:10:29. > :10:37.us in this mess in the first place. I don't know what they are paying
:10:38. > :10:51.him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I haven't finished! In response to
:10:52. > :10:58.that question, the Prime Minister has finished and he can take it from
:10:59. > :11:03.me that he has finished. I can't remember a speaker ever speaking to
:11:04. > :11:08.a Prime Minister like that. Clearly in that case, John Bercow crossed a
:11:09. > :11:13.line. It is Prime Minister 's questions, he is entitled to answer
:11:14. > :11:18.the questions. There is really bad blood between those two, going back
:11:19. > :11:24.a long way. They hate each other and the worrying thing about that was
:11:25. > :11:30.the look of triumphalism on the speaker's face afterwards. He is a
:11:31. > :11:34.remarkable, revolutionary speaker who has made the House of Commons
:11:35. > :11:39.more relevant, he is holding the executive to account, but that look
:11:40. > :11:44.on his face showed he had crossed the line. Does he survive after the
:11:45. > :11:48.next election? He has improved the importance of the Commons, is that
:11:49. > :11:54.enough to keep him in the Speaker 's chair? The most public bit of the
:11:55. > :12:00.Commons is still the Prime Minister 's questions, and we can conclude
:12:01. > :12:07.that John Bercow's interventions take more time than any delays he
:12:08. > :12:16.complains about so I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few years' time,
:12:17. > :12:22.someone else replaces him. He is quite popular with Labour, is he
:12:23. > :12:27.not? Yes, he is married to a Labour activist and is notably sympathetic
:12:28. > :12:32.to Labour but I think this is a difficult situation. David Cameron
:12:33. > :12:38.also overstepped the line. As soon as the speaker says order, the idea
:12:39. > :12:43.is that the House was to order and David Cameron pushed him. They are
:12:44. > :12:47.both trying to score points off each other. We cover Prime Minister 's
:12:48. > :12:56.questions every week on the daily politics, and there is a danger that
:12:57. > :12:59.he sees it as an opportunity to do some grandstanding. You slightly
:13:00. > :13:04.sends his vanity gets the better of him. It is supposed to be Prime
:13:05. > :13:09.Minister 's questions. At the end of that session, the Speaker read out a
:13:10. > :13:14.statement from the Chief clerk, and immensely respected figure, saying
:13:15. > :13:19.he is taking early retirement. It is pretty clear that the reason he has
:13:20. > :13:22.decided to go early is because he is finding it tricky to maintain a
:13:23. > :13:27.cordial relationship with the speaker, and the speaker might want
:13:28. > :13:31.to think about his man management skills. That's all for today. The
:13:32. > :13:34.Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at lunchtime from Tuesday
:13:35. > :13:37.onwards. Remember, it is a bank holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here
:13:38. > :13:38.at 11am next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday
:13:39. > :13:44.Politics.