:00:38. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:46. > :00:49.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:50. > :00:52.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:53. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:07. > :01:10.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:11. > :01:21.It is the final countdown for Europe campaign trail, he has been asking
:01:22. > :01:24.It is the final countdown for Europe as politicians scrap over a possible
:01:25. > :01:27.referendum. elections, and the 50th anniversary
:01:28. > :01:37.of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,
:01:38. > :01:46.with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,
:01:47. > :01:50.Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for
:01:51. > :01:54.everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of
:01:55. > :01:58.Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big
:01:59. > :02:02.one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local
:02:03. > :02:04.elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes But
:02:05. > :02:10.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:11. > :02:15.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:16. > :02:17.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:18. > :02:41.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:42. > :02:46.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:47. > :02:52.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:53. > :02:57.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:58. > :03:02.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:03. > :03:05.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:06. > :03:09.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:10. > :03:14.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:15. > :03:18.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:19. > :03:22.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:23. > :03:26.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:27. > :03:34.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:35. > :03:38.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:39. > :03:42.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:43. > :03:47.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:48. > :03:51.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:52. > :03:56.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:57. > :03:59.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:00. > :04:04.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:05. > :04:09.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:10. > :04:12.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:13. > :04:18.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:19. > :04:23.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:24. > :04:27.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:28. > :04:32.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:33. > :04:35.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:36. > :04:43.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:44. > :04:54.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:55. > :04:59.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:05:00. > :05:03.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:04. > :05:08.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:09. > :05:13.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:14. > :05:17.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:18. > :05:23.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:24. > :05:28.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:29. > :05:31.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:32. > :05:35.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:36. > :05:42.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:43. > :05:47.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:48. > :05:52.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:53. > :05:56.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:57. > :06:00.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:01. > :06:03.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:04. > :06:10.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:11. > :06:15.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:16. > :06:18.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:19. > :06:24.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:25. > :06:28.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:29. > :06:34.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:35. > :06:38.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:39. > :06:43.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:44. > :06:47.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:48. > :06:51.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:52. > :06:54.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:55. > :06:57.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:58. > :07:08.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:09. > :07:12.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:13. > :07:17.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:18. > :07:21.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:22. > :07:26.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:27. > :07:29.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:30. > :07:35.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:36. > :07:42.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:43. > :07:44.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:45. > :07:48.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:49. > :07:53.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:54. > :07:56.involved in some kind of racist sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:57. > :08:00.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:01. > :08:03.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:04. > :08:09.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:10. > :08:13.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:14. > :08:16.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:17. > :08:23.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:24. > :08:26.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:27. > :08:33.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:34. > :08:37.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:38. > :08:40.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:41. > :08:47.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:48. > :08:51.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:52. > :08:57.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:58. > :09:00.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers.
:09:01. > :09:04.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers We
:09:05. > :09:10.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:11. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:20.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:21. > :09:24.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:25. > :09:28.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:29. > :09:33.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:34. > :09:39.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:40. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:52.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:53. > :09:56.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:57. > :10:01.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:02. > :10:04.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:05. > :10:08.put forward a lot of positive -- 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:09. > :10:12.put forward a lot of positive - a lot of policies at local government
:10:13. > :10:15.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:16. > :10:18.But when it comes to individual local issues, say, a particular
:10:19. > :10:24.development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will
:10:25. > :10:28.vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the
:10:29. > :10:34.borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out
:10:35. > :10:37.really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians
:10:38. > :10:41.to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of
:10:42. > :10:46.the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a
:10:47. > :10:50.referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then
:10:51. > :10:55.happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first
:10:56. > :11:00.time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am
:11:01. > :11:04.not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come
:11:05. > :11:08.out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But
:11:09. > :11:14.have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But
:11:15. > :11:18.certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world
:11:19. > :11:22.economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be
:11:23. > :11:27.able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is
:11:28. > :11:34.what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would
:11:35. > :11:39.be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,
:11:40. > :11:43.sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and
:11:44. > :11:49.valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that
:11:50. > :11:53.referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people
:11:54. > :11:59.'s... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.
:12:00. > :12:03.70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it
:12:04. > :12:09.would not be 1975, then? Andrew, concerned about immigration. So it
:12:10. > :12:11.would not be 1975, then? Andrew it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:12. > :12:14.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:15. > :12:21.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:22. > :12:24.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:25. > :12:28.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:29. > :12:33.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:34. > :12:38.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:39. > :12:43.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:44. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:57.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:58. > :13:01.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:02. > :13:05.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:06. > :13:08.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:09. > :13:11.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:12. > :13:16.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:17. > :13:18.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:19. > :13:35.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:36. > :13:38.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:39. > :13:46.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:47. > :13:50.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:51. > :13:54.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:55. > :13:58.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:13:59. > :14:03.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:04. > :14:12.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:13. > :14:22.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:23. > :14:27.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:28. > :14:30.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:31. > :14:34.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:35. > :14:41.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:42. > :14:49.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:50. > :14:52.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:53. > :14:58.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:59. > :15:03.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:04. > :15:08.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:09. > :15:14.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:15. > :15:20.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:21. > :15:22.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:23. > :15:37.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:38. > :15:42.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:43. > :15:50.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:51. > :15:58.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:15:59. > :16:01.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:02. > :16:04.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:05. > :16:09.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:10. > :16:20.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:21. > :16:26.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:27. > :16:32.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:33. > :16:41.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:42. > :16:47.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:48. > :16:49.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:50. > :16:53.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:54. > :17:06.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:07. > :17:12.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:13. > :17:18.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:19. > :17:25.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:26. > :17:32.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:33. > :17:37.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:38. > :17:39.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:40. > :17:49.minutes to get having elections too. I have 40
:17:50. > :17:58.212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,
:17:59. > :18:10.12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.
:18:11. > :18:18.Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our
:18:19. > :18:22.studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in
:18:23. > :18:33.Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,
:18:34. > :18:38.looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest
:18:39. > :18:42.group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are
:18:43. > :18:48.recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only
:18:49. > :18:54.party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people
:18:55. > :19:00.over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands
:19:01. > :19:05.synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why
:19:06. > :19:10.should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the
:19:11. > :19:17.reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are
:19:18. > :19:23.stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives
:19:24. > :19:27.are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green
:19:28. > :19:32.belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed
:19:33. > :19:36.the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and
:19:37. > :19:42.saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that
:19:43. > :19:54.many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the
:19:55. > :19:59.polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are
:20:00. > :20:04.looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that
:20:05. > :20:08.we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society
:20:09. > :20:11.works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the
:20:12. > :20:19.limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want
:20:20. > :20:24.all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where
:20:25. > :20:29.would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?
:20:30. > :20:36.Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into
:20:37. > :20:41.a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for
:20:42. > :20:48.demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French
:20:49. > :20:56.nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across
:20:57. > :20:59.Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of
:21:00. > :21:03.we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is
:21:04. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:24.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:25. > :21:31.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:32. > :21:34.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:35. > :21:41.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:42. > :21:45.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:46. > :21:49.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:50. > :21:56.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:57. > :22:01.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:02. > :22:06.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:07. > :22:10.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:11. > :22:17.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:18. > :22:22.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:23. > :22:28.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:29. > :22:33.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:34. > :22:38.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:39. > :22:46.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:47. > :22:50.debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have
:22:51. > :22:55.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:56. > :22:59.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:00. > :23:08.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:09. > :23:13.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:14. > :23:21.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:22. > :23:26.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:27. > :23:29.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:30. > :23:34.Probably a good move. Thank you. Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:35. > :23:46.Probably a good move. Thank you I'm Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm
:23:47. > :24:16.joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and
:24:17. > :24:20.Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on
:24:21. > :24:25.the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.
:24:26. > :24:30.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would
:24:31. > :24:37.like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.
:24:38. > :24:41.Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European
:24:42. > :24:46.elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning
:24:47. > :24:52.the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,
:24:53. > :24:58.you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation
:24:59. > :25:02.from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are
:25:03. > :25:07.concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage
:25:08. > :25:12.only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the
:25:13. > :25:17.interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season
:25:18. > :25:23.change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member
:25:24. > :25:27.states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to
:25:28. > :25:34.children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to
:25:35. > :25:40.charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a
:25:41. > :25:43.flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will
:25:44. > :25:54.continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward
:25:55. > :25:59.policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will
:26:00. > :26:06.look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters
:26:07. > :26:11.decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP
:26:12. > :26:17.question is that they get support because they have never been in
:26:18. > :26:22.power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get
:26:23. > :26:31.into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is
:26:32. > :26:36.that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the
:26:37. > :26:45.case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made
:26:46. > :26:51.in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14
:26:52. > :27:00.out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously
:27:01. > :27:06.disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the
:27:07. > :27:10.European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,
:27:11. > :27:14.it will show that people don't really trust your promise about
:27:15. > :27:20.European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.
:27:21. > :27:25.What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal
:27:26. > :27:29.Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European
:27:30. > :27:34.treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European
:27:35. > :27:39.budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted
:27:40. > :27:48.against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying
:27:49. > :27:53.more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout
:27:54. > :27:58.fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same
:27:59. > :28:04.energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British
:28:05. > :28:12.people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a
:28:13. > :28:18.liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against
:28:19. > :28:23.him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost
:28:24. > :28:27.consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,
:28:28. > :28:33.but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the
:28:34. > :28:46.problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom
:28:47. > :28:49.tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work
:28:50. > :28:58.for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.
:28:59. > :29:07.So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be
:29:08. > :29:11.voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David
:29:12. > :29:17.Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is
:29:18. > :29:20.recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have
:29:21. > :29:25.been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British
:29:26. > :29:31.politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit
:29:32. > :29:35.everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this
:29:36. > :29:42.country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and
:29:43. > :29:46.we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours
:29:47. > :29:51.contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse
:29:52. > :30:01.your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It
:30:02. > :30:04.may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the
:30:05. > :30:09.European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people
:30:10. > :30:14.understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on
:30:15. > :30:18.Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In
:30:19. > :30:22.terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my
:30:23. > :30:26.community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.
:30:27. > :30:33.Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in
:30:34. > :30:38.office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour
:30:39. > :30:44.have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.
:30:45. > :30:48.One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that
:30:49. > :30:51.they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a
:30:52. > :30:56.government have delivered more affordable housing in this
:30:57. > :31:02.Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next
:31:03. > :31:11.three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall
:31:12. > :31:18.housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the
:31:19. > :31:20.Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.
:31:21. > :31:28.Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your
:31:29. > :31:34.last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting
:31:35. > :31:39.UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said
:31:40. > :31:44.that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a
:31:45. > :31:48.result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in
:31:49. > :31:52.the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure
:31:53. > :31:57.you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what
:31:58. > :32:01.is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on
:32:02. > :32:05.free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:32:06. > :32:09.the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about
:32:10. > :32:19.change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a
:32:20. > :32:23.referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should
:32:24. > :32:27.get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future
:32:28. > :32:31.lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which
:32:32. > :32:35.wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to
:32:36. > :32:42.the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.
:32:43. > :32:45.What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has
:32:46. > :32:50.been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime
:32:51. > :32:53.Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy
:32:54. > :32:58.prices, more childcare, policies which directly address
:32:59. > :32:59.prices, more childcare, policies which people face. I think the
:33:00. > :33:03.public will realise that. which people face. I think the
:33:04. > :33:05.offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used
:33:06. > :33:07.to be in favour of a referendum We to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:08. > :33:12.are in favour, we voted for one we are in favour, we voted for one, we
:33:13. > :33:16.have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between
:33:17. > :33:22.Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a
:33:23. > :33:27.referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously
:33:28. > :33:35.want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it
:33:36. > :33:38.would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until
:33:39. > :33:44.there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and
:33:45. > :33:51.then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to
:33:52. > :33:55.leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural
:33:56. > :34:00.partners with the Conservatives, but partners with the Conservatives but
:34:01. > :34:04.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:05. > :34:11.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:12. > :34:14.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:15. > :34:20.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:21. > :34:24.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:25. > :34:27.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:28. > :34:32.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:33. > :34:35.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:36. > :34:41.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:42. > :34:52.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:53. > :34:57.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:58. > :35:03.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:04. > :35:07.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:08. > :35:12.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:13. > :35:15.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:16. > :35:21.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:22. > :35:24.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:25. > :35:29.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:30. > :35:33.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:34. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:42.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:43. > :35:46.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:47. > :35:53.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn
:35:54. > :35:59.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:00. > :36:02.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:03. > :36:07.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:08. > :36:13.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:14. > :36:18.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:19. > :36:22.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:23. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:33.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:34. > :36:40.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:41. > :36:43.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:44. > :36:50.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:51. > :36:56.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:57. > :37:02.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:03. > :37:06.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:07. > :37:09.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:10. > :37:16.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:17. > :37:27.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:28. > :37:32.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:33. > :37:36.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:37. > :37:39.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:40. > :37:43.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:44. > :37:46.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:47. > :37:50.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:51. > :37:56.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:57. > :37:59.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:38:00. > :38:02.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:03. > :38:09.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:10. > :38:16.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:17. > :38:20.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:21. > :38:23.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:24. > :38:39.This is Sunday Politics herd in the Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming
:38:40. > :38:42.This is Sunday Politics here in the glorious West Country. Bracd
:38:43. > :38:44.glorious West Country. Brace yourselves as this is our l`st show
:38:45. > :38:47.yourselves as this is our last show before the voting begins in a big
:38:48. > :38:50.European contest. It may lack the glitz and glamour, and garish
:38:51. > :38:55.costumes of Eurovision. And there are no bearded ladies as far as we
:38:56. > :38:56.know. Which parties in the south`west will triumph and which
:38:57. > :39:01.ones will get nil points? With me ones will get nil points? With me
:39:02. > :39:07.are members of the four parties who won seats in the West since we
:39:08. > :39:11.joined in the 1970s. They are William Dartmouth of UKIP. Good
:39:12. > :39:15.morning. The Conservative Ashley Fox. Graham Watson for the Liberal
:39:16. > :39:25.Democrats and the Glyn Ford from Labour. Later we will also hear from
:39:26. > :39:29.the Green party who just missed out on a seat the last time arotnd. Let
:39:30. > :39:31.us start by talking about a topic never far from the headlines and
:39:32. > :39:34.that is immigration. Ashley Fox are that is immigration. Ashley Fox, are
:39:35. > :39:37.you relaxed about the number of migrants coming from the rest
:39:38. > :39:40.Europe. I support the freedom of movement of labour and I am
:39:41. > :39:50.comfortable for Europeans to come here who want to make a
:39:51. > :39:56.contribution. They want to work and want to pay tax. What the government
:39:57. > :39:59.has done is change the rules so that people cannot come here and claim
:40:00. > :40:02.benefits. Or use the NHS without making a contribution. Everxthing is
:40:03. > :40:06.fine now? We have to acknowledge that it is a real concern about the
:40:07. > :40:10.volume of immigrants who have came to this country since 2004. And as I
:40:11. > :40:12.think the Labour Party accept now, Jack Straw does, it was a
:40:13. > :40:13.spectacular mistake. The reason Jack Straw does, it was a
:40:14. > :40:15.spectacular mistake. The re`son that spectacular mistake. The re`son that
:40:16. > :40:19.we have an issue with immigration no is that because of the mistakes the
:40:20. > :40:22.Labour Party made in 2004. Glyn Ford from Labour Party, immigrants are
:40:23. > :40:26.arriving in the West Countrx at a rate of about 1000 per week. This
:40:27. > :40:29.was at the height of the movement. Do you accept that was a mistake
:40:30. > :40:32.too? I accept that we should have done more. It is very clear that
:40:33. > :40:39.communities were suffering problems from the migrants coming in. I was
:40:40. > :40:40.in favour of them coming but I was not in favour of putting anx
:40:41. > :40:43.not in favour of putting any resources that would help them
:40:44. > :40:46.cope. The UK Government, our government at the time, was actually
:40:47. > :40:48.benefiting from the taxes that they were paying. It should've been
:40:49. > :40:49.were paying. It should've bden alleviating the problems that
:40:50. > :40:51.alleviating the problems th`t actually existed. Should you reduce
:40:52. > :40:52.the numbers further? We havd a actually existed. Should yot reduce
:40:53. > :40:54.the numbers further? We have a scare the numbers further? We havd a scare
:40:55. > :40:56.story this time around about how we're going to be flooded whth the
:40:57. > :40:58.we're going to be flooded with the Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns
:40:59. > :41:00.out that more people have ldft Romanians and Bulgarians. In turns
:41:01. > :41:00.out that more people have left the out that more people have left the
:41:01. > :41:02.UK. There were problems bec`use out that more people have ldft the
:41:03. > :41:05.UK. There were problems bec`use we were opening up Britain and
:41:06. > :41:14.Ireland, and Sweden, who were the only countries who allowed free
:41:15. > :41:15.movement in 2004. Two new member states coming in at the momdnt
:41:16. > :41:18.movement in 2004. Two new mdmber states coming in at the moment that
:41:19. > :41:23.are in comparatively smaller. The same problem does not exist. I have
:41:24. > :41:27.just came back from Gibralt`r. You have got areas of Spain that are
:41:28. > :41:37.majority British and German. It goes both ways. Let us bring in Graham
:41:38. > :41:40.Watson. You are from the most pro`European party, I guess. Do you
:41:41. > :41:44.accept that migration has any downsides? Of course there's a
:41:45. > :41:49.problem of pressure on servhces and the government has to be able to be
:41:50. > :41:50.sure that we are able to provide the services that the people nedd.
:41:51. > :41:56.services that the people need. Doctors, dentists, school places or
:41:57. > :41:59.what ever. I am from the most pro`British party in the sense that
:42:00. > :42:01.I believe in the membership of the European Union and that is essential
:42:02. > :42:03.for the British economy. Thd European Union and that is dssential
:42:04. > :42:03.for the British economy. The freedom for the British economy. Thd freedom
:42:04. > :42:08.of movement for Labour is important of movement for Labour is ilportant
:42:09. > :42:12.for that. The reason that so many people came was that there were jobs
:42:13. > :42:14.to be done. We had a booming economy. I asked if there wdre any
:42:15. > :42:18.economy. I asked if there were any downsides to it? Not if you are an
:42:19. > :42:21.employer in the South West. In the town where I live we have got a
:42:22. > :42:23.slaughterhouse. It employs just over 300 people. Most of them are
:42:24. > :42:25.immigrants. If we did not h`ve 300 people. Most of them ard
:42:26. > :42:27.immigrants. If we did not have them immigrants. If we did not have them
:42:28. > :42:29.then we would not be able to run that slaughterhouse. They would not
:42:30. > :42:30.staff your care homes in the staff your care homes in thd
:42:31. > :42:32.south`west. We were warned about staff your care homes in the
:42:33. > :42:32.south`west. We were warned `bout the south`west. We were warned `bout the
:42:33. > :42:34.tens of thousands of Romanians south`west. We were warned about the
:42:35. > :42:36.tens of thousands of Romani`ns and tens of thousands of Romanians and
:42:37. > :42:41.Bulgarians that would be he`ding our way. That has not happened. It was
:42:42. > :42:45.scaremongering. Could I advise you of the context, the context is that
:42:46. > :42:46.immigration is a matter of great public concern and the contdxt
:42:47. > :42:46.immigration is a matter of great public concern and the context of
:42:47. > :42:48.public concern and the contdxt of that concern is that from 1997
:42:49. > :42:48.public concern and the context of that concern is that from 1897 to
:42:49. > :42:58.that concern is that from 1997 to 2010 according to the Institute for
:42:59. > :43:00.Statistics... This is the context. The other context is this. The
:43:01. > :43:01.Conservative Party general election Conservative Party general election
:43:02. > :43:05.manifesto promised to reducd manifesto promised to reducd
:43:06. > :43:10.immigration to tens of thousands. I quote, that is what it says. And
:43:11. > :43:13.that is where we have succedded That is where you have not
:43:14. > :43:17.succeeded. You know that perfectly well. The fact of the matter is that
:43:18. > :43:21.as long as we remain in the European Union over 450 million people have
:43:22. > :43:24.the absolute right to work `nd settle here. I very rarely praise
:43:25. > :43:25.the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to the
:43:26. > :43:25.the Labour Party but the Labour Party have apologised to thd British
:43:26. > :43:29.Party have apologised to the British people to their mishandling of when
:43:30. > :43:32.the countries joined in 2004. The Conservative Party should apologise
:43:33. > :43:43.for not having a credible policy on immigration. We simply do not know
:43:44. > :43:45.what it is. Would you apologise for saying that 29 million Romanians and
:43:46. > :43:47.Bulgarians may come? We nevdr saying that 29 million Romanians and
:43:48. > :43:53.Bulgarians may come? We nevdr said that. They pointed out that in
:43:54. > :44:00.January first this year, 25 million Romanians and Bulgarians... I think
:44:01. > :44:06.it is about 27 million. Thex were it is about 27 million. They were
:44:07. > :44:08.eligible to come to Europe. Migration Watch which is thd most
:44:09. > :44:10.Migration Watch which is the most reputable producer of immigration
:44:11. > :44:11.statistics, far more than the British government have estimated
:44:12. > :44:22.British government have esthmated that 50,000 per year would come. The
:44:23. > :44:27.context is what has happened since 1997. There is a further very
:44:28. > :44:34.important point. Anybody who raises it gets abused. Gordon Brown abused
:44:35. > :44:37.Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abusdd. It
:44:38. > :44:37.Gillian Duffy. Migration Watch have been abused and we get abused. It is
:44:38. > :44:41.been abused and we get abusdd. It is a concern of the British people and
:44:42. > :44:45.it is high time that this abuse stopped. The answer to my qtestion
:44:46. > :44:48.stopped. The answer to my question about whether you had apologised for
:44:49. > :44:52.stating the 29 million people may come... We never said that. I will
:44:53. > :44:55.not apologise for what was not said. We said that 29 million people
:44:56. > :44:59.were eligible. You must know the difference, if you are a clever
:45:00. > :45:02.chap. You must know the difference. Hang on there. European elections do
:45:03. > :45:05.not often manage to excite too many voters but this time it may be
:45:06. > :45:09.different. The returning officer for the south`west has reported a surge
:45:10. > :45:14.in the number of people applying for postal votes. Some people think it
:45:15. > :45:16.is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about thd cost
:45:17. > :45:16.is down to the UKIP effect. Many people are unhappy about the cost of
:45:17. > :45:18.people are unhappy about thd cost of being in the EU. We have been
:45:19. > :45:25.being in the EU. We have bedn looking at those figures.
:45:26. > :45:26.They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers here
:45:27. > :45:26.They are up on the prices at this livestock market. Farmers hdre know
:45:27. > :45:34.the value of Europe. It gives over the value of Europe. It gives over
:45:35. > :45:40.40% of its budget to agriculture, much of it on subsidy payments. ?200
:45:41. > :45:46.or ?300 but you cannot do without or ?300 but you cannot do whthout
:45:47. > :45:47.it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the gener`l
:45:48. > :45:48.it. Not at the moment. If it wasn't for the subsidies the general public
:45:49. > :45:52.for the subsidies the gener`l public would not get cheap food. If the
:45:53. > :45:57.food had to be produced without the subsidies then it would be tproar.
:45:58. > :46:03.So what is the price tag for staying in this club? We pay in 13 billion
:46:04. > :46:05.euros per year. We get back six billion euros and the cost to the
:46:06. > :46:11.nation works out at about ?000 per nation works out at about ?000 per
:46:12. > :46:14.person. Business groups likd the CBI say that benefits like access to a
:46:15. > :46:26.single market are worth at least ten times that outlay. For a broader
:46:27. > :46:31.view we head into town. On first sound, nearby Froome could be
:46:32. > :46:37.France. After laying out our stall with boxes in the patriotic stripes
:46:38. > :46:41.the Entente Cordiale is soon broken. Out. Definitely. Why are yot going
:46:42. > :46:48.out? Because we no longer rule our out? Because we no longer rule our
:46:49. > :46:52.country. There is too many people saying to this do that and we cannot
:46:53. > :46:57.do it ourselves. We have to get out. It costs us far too much money. We
:46:58. > :47:01.do not have control over who can come in and out of the country and I
:47:02. > :47:04.think we would be better off without all those unelected bureaucrats who
:47:05. > :47:14.are trying to tell us what to do. Any ball? Why are you for in? We
:47:15. > :47:19.would become a little, tired, ailing country and we would be backward.
:47:20. > :47:20.Lots of different policies for all those little places does not make
:47:21. > :47:28.sense. I think it is utterlx sense. I think it is utterlx
:47:29. > :47:32.ridiculous to say go out, when we are out. For all sorts of reasons,
:47:33. > :47:33.economic, cultural and soci`l, economic, cultural and social,
:47:34. > :47:38.environmental. The whole galut. economic, cultural and soci`l,
:47:39. > :47:50.environmental. The whole galut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, UKIP!
:47:51. > :47:50.environmental. The whole gamut. A ridiculous idea. Up yours, TKIP In
:47:51. > :47:57.the end Whether in or out many people still
:47:58. > :47:58.wanted the option to choose. Something which still causes the
:47:59. > :48:17.parties to feud. We said we would have a referendum
:48:18. > :48:26.if there was any change in the terms of the treaty. We have made a few
:48:27. > :48:32.changes. I think it is very clear that the people of Britain do not
:48:33. > :48:37.have a referendum any time that things have stayed the same. We not
:48:38. > :48:40.having a referendum on bringing back hanging. That was decided. A
:48:41. > :48:42.hanging. That was decided. @ referendum that there was
:48:43. > :48:43.significant treaty changes `nd referendum that there was
:48:44. > :48:43.significant treaty changes and it significant treaty changes and it
:48:44. > :48:50.should be an in and out refdrendum. should be an in and out refdrendum.
:48:51. > :48:57.Graham Watson, do you agree with our close union? Evan, in and end. I
:48:58. > :48:58.think countries should coopdrate close union? Evan, in and end. I
:48:59. > :49:00.think countries should cooperate in think countries should coopdrate in
:49:01. > :49:06.areas where they think it is sensible to cooperate. Why not if it
:49:07. > :49:10.is in their interest to do so. Do you have to be in a union to
:49:11. > :49:12.cooperate? No, you do not have to be cooperate? No, you do not h`ve to be
:49:13. > :49:23.in a union but it is much easier to in a union but it is much easier to
:49:24. > :49:25.do so. You have different bodies working together to frame
:49:26. > :49:30.legislation that everybody should abide by. My party favours a
:49:31. > :49:33.referendum and we believe they should've been one on the Lisbon
:49:34. > :49:35.should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there
:49:36. > :49:35.should've been one on the Lisbon Treaty. We argue that if thdre is
:49:36. > :49:37.should've been one on the Lhsbon Treaty. We argue that if there is a
:49:38. > :49:40.new treaty coming on in the should be a referendum for the British
:49:41. > :49:47.people to decide if they want accept it. The Conservatives have promised
:49:48. > :49:49.a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we belidve
:49:50. > :49:50.a referendum before and did not deliver. Why should we believe you
:49:51. > :49:52.that you see now that you whll deliver. Why should we belidve you
:49:53. > :49:55.that you see now that you will offer that you see now that you will offer
:49:56. > :49:58.is one? I am afraid you are wrong. We did not promise a referendum, we
:49:59. > :50:00.We did not promise a referendum we promise to have won if we came to
:50:01. > :50:06.promise to have won if we c`me to power and the Lisbon Treaty had not
:50:07. > :50:08.been ratified. I am afraid that you misquoted David Cameron. Thd Labour
:50:09. > :50:11.misquoted David Cameron. The Labour Party under Gordon Brown ratified
:50:12. > :50:14.the treaty without holding ` the treaty without holding `
:50:15. > :50:19.referendum. Our position is that Brussels has got too much power so
:50:20. > :50:25.we want to renegotiate our terms of membership to take power back from
:50:26. > :50:28.Brussels to Britain. When that negotiation is complete, we will
:50:29. > :50:32.hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay hn
:50:33. > :50:37.hold a referendum by the end of 2017. I would vote to stay in a
:50:38. > :50:40.reformed EU. What is your bottom line? No negotiator would reveal his
:50:41. > :50:51.bottom line. We have promisdd that bottom line. We have promised that
:50:52. > :50:52.referendum in any event. If the negotiations fail, that refdrendum
:50:53. > :50:54.negotiations fail, that referendum will take place anyway at the end of
:50:55. > :51:03.2017. David Cameron said th`t he 2017. David Cameron said th`t he
:51:04. > :51:07.would go, would you go too? David Cameron has said that he would not
:51:08. > :51:08.be Prime Minister of the government that wasn't committed. I am not an
:51:09. > :51:13.MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was MP. I am a MEP. If that prolise was
:51:14. > :51:15.not delivered would you go? It is not a question for MEPs to hold that
:51:16. > :51:18.referendum. It is for Westmhnster. referendum. It is for Westmhnster.
:51:19. > :51:22.You want out. Your position is very clear. It is crystal clear. But you
:51:23. > :51:24.are not in a position to offer anything. You could get all the
:51:25. > :51:29.seats in the south`west and nothing The only people who are offdring a
:51:30. > :51:32.referendum are the Conservative Party. I point out that the Liberal
:51:33. > :51:35.Democrats had a three line whip voting against the referendtm
:51:36. > :51:42.although they promised that in the general election. The Labour Party
:51:43. > :51:47.position is very unclear but I think it means no if we try to understand
:51:48. > :51:49.what Mr Ford said. I point out to Ashley Fox that the one referendum
:51:50. > :51:53.Ashley Fox that the one refdrendum that we did have in 1975 took place
:51:54. > :52:00.after we had entered the colmon market in 1973, after the treaty had
:52:01. > :52:03.been ratified. The best way for somebody who wants a referendum to
:52:04. > :52:04.hold the three major parties, the establishment parties to their
:52:05. > :52:13.establishment parties to thdir promises, is to vote UKIP. I have
:52:14. > :52:14.promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question!
:52:15. > :52:15.promises, is to vote UKIP. I have just answered that question It
:52:16. > :52:15.promises, is to vote UKIP. H have just answered that question! It is
:52:16. > :52:19.just answered that question It is to stop what happened before.
:52:20. > :52:19.just answered that question! It is to stop what happened beford. Mr
:52:20. > :52:21.to stop what happened before. Mr Cameron broke his promise. Lr Clegg
:52:22. > :52:27.Cameron broke his promise. Mr Clegg broke his promise. Mr Milib`nd never
:52:28. > :52:29.made a promise. Who gave as the referendum in 1975, can you remind
:52:30. > :52:33.me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg me? Harold Wilson. I am a bhg
:52:34. > :52:38.admirer of Harold Wilson and I am a great admirer of Tony Benn. I would
:52:39. > :52:42.point out that the number one Labour candidate as an official of the
:52:43. > :52:45.Unite union sits in Tony Benn house and Tony Benn was a very
:52:46. > :52:54.distinguished Bristol MP for 30 years. To all of the people who work
:52:55. > :52:56.in this constituency in Airbus, in Honda, in Agusta Westland, all the
:52:57. > :52:59.Honda, in Agusta Westland, `ll the big companies who rely on foreign
:53:00. > :53:05.investment and on being in the European Union, are you going to put
:53:06. > :53:09.all those jobs at risk? I al very glad that you have raised that. Are
:53:10. > :53:11.you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the Europe`n
:53:12. > :53:12.you claiming that all trade would cease if we left the European Union?
:53:13. > :53:17.cease if we left the Europe`n Union? Are you claiming that all foreign
:53:18. > :53:20.investment would cease? I would remind you that China alone sold 290
:53:21. > :53:27.million euros worth of goods to businesses in the European Union in
:53:28. > :53:33.2012. A very small downturn in trade would have a major effect on jobs in
:53:34. > :53:46.this constituency. It would make absolutely no difference at all.
:53:47. > :53:47.Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the Europe`n
:53:48. > :53:47.Don't talk over each other. Withdrawing from the European Union
:53:48. > :53:49.Withdrawing from the Europe`n Union would have absolutely no impact, you
:53:50. > :53:52.would have absolutely no impact you could argue it would be beneficial,
:53:53. > :53:55.you could argue it would have a detrimental impact, the verx notion
:53:56. > :54:00.that you do something as fundamental as that vote changing anything is
:54:01. > :54:10.absolutely ridiculous. We h`ve to move on.
:54:11. > :54:13.Voting in the EU is like `` is unlike any other election as it is
:54:14. > :54:19.done on a proportional basis that will help smaller parties like
:54:20. > :54:23.UKIP. Last thing the Green party nearly won the seat.
:54:24. > :54:24.A different electoral system nearly won the seat.
:54:25. > :54:28.A different electoral systel ushered A different electoral systel ushered
:54:29. > :54:32.in a new era in British polhtics. The Green party got their first
:54:33. > :54:35.members are elected. One decade later and the potential for smaller
:54:36. > :54:43.parties was well`known. The ballot party given choice of `` the ballot
:54:44. > :54:44.gave a choice of 17 parties. There was disappointment for the Green
:54:45. > :54:47.party who narrowly missed ott. was disappointment for the Green
:54:48. > :54:52.party who narrowly missed out. This time it is different and thd choice
:54:53. > :54:58.is less, eat on the ballot paper. The Green party have got a new
:54:59. > :55:03.target. They set their sights on the Liberal Democrats. It gives you a
:55:04. > :55:04.lot of ammunition should yot need Liberal Democrats. It gives you a
:55:05. > :55:05.lot of ammunition should you need it lot of ammunition should yot need it
:55:06. > :55:11.to see how fast this government, to see how fast this governlent
:55:12. > :55:13.including the Lib Dems... They hope to win over voters who are
:55:14. > :55:19.pro`Europe but anti`coalition government. The selections have
:55:20. > :55:23.always been beneficial for the Green party because they are based on a
:55:24. > :55:27.proportional representation system. It is easier for the Green party to
:55:28. > :55:31.get the opinions across and not worry about first past the post. A
:55:32. > :55:34.worry about first past the post A good day for the Green party could
:55:35. > :55:41.be a bad day for the Liberal Democrats.
:55:42. > :55:48.Along with the game party, there are the other parties in the running for
:55:49. > :55:54.your vote. Independence from Europe, the British National party, and the
:55:55. > :56:02.English Democrats. You can see all pitches from those parties on the
:56:03. > :56:07.points West Facebook page. What are your views on wind
:56:08. > :56:09.turbines? I am opposed to them. Why have you given over some of your
:56:10. > :56:12.land and another part of thd party land and another part of the party
:56:13. > :56:18.to a relative who has allowed them to be built. It is not my l`nd. It
:56:19. > :56:20.to be built. It is not my land. It is not my application and I will not
:56:21. > :56:26.derive any financial benefit from it. The land was transferred some
:56:27. > :56:31.years ago. Does that make you hypocritical? No. I have derived no
:56:32. > :56:34.financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who hs
:56:35. > :56:38.financial benefit from it and it belonged to a relative who is not in
:56:39. > :56:40.my immediate family. It is not my wife or son. What was the value of
:56:41. > :56:49.wife or son. What was the v`lue of the land that you give away? At the
:56:50. > :56:58.time wish... At the time, not a huge amount. Did you know that that land
:56:59. > :57:02.may be used as a wind farm? No. Are you embarrassed about it? I am
:57:03. > :57:05.embarrassed on behalf of thd BBC embarrassed on behalf of the BBC
:57:06. > :57:09.that as a public service broadcaster that we have got an election on
:57:10. > :57:12.Thursday on the European question Thursday on the European question
:57:13. > :57:20.and this is the second BBC programme that is devoted time to what is a
:57:21. > :57:25.known issue. It is a legitilate question. I do not think so, not
:57:26. > :57:30.from a public service broadcaster. If you say in public that you do not
:57:31. > :57:34.approve of wind farms. This was years ago. You are still taking up
:57:35. > :57:36.the very little time that we have years ago. You are still taking up
:57:37. > :57:38.the very little time that wd have to the very little time that wd have to
:57:39. > :57:42.discuss the European question. I do not be cost `` discuss the cost of
:57:43. > :57:47.European regulation that was omitted from the package? Why cannot we
:57:48. > :57:50.discussed the fact that when they are in the European Union that
:57:51. > :57:57.Britain could not saying its own trade agreements. You were beaten
:57:58. > :58:00.into fourth place last time. Fifth place. It was extremely
:58:01. > :58:04.disappointing. It was at the place. It was extremely
:58:05. > :58:05.disappointing. It was at thd height disappointing. It was at thd height
:58:06. > :58:10.of the opposition to the Labour government and we have seen the cost
:58:11. > :58:14.of that lesson 12 month latdr at the general election defeat. There's
:58:15. > :58:17.that mean you have given up the Green party space to another party?
:58:18. > :58:26.We are very keen on green warming. We are very keen on green w`rming.
:58:27. > :58:34.`` we are very keen on green issues, global warming. We need to work
:58:35. > :58:38.together. You cannot solve the problems of global warming on your
:58:39. > :58:45.own. Latest talk about the threat from UKIP. Why are you so bothered
:58:46. > :58:54.about them given that they can not deliver an out referendum? H am not
:58:55. > :58:58.bothered by them. I am putthng forward a very positive Conservative
:58:59. > :59:02.Party view. We should renegotiate the terms of membership and we
:59:03. > :59:09.should hold a referendum. The reason for the rise of UKIP is that they
:59:10. > :59:12.have become the beneficiary of protest votes. You have two Mac
:59:13. > :59:17.parties in a coalition government... Let me finish. You
:59:18. > :59:18.have the Labour Party with the most useless leader of the opposition
:59:19. > :59:25.useless leader of the opposhtion ever. A lot of those protest votes
:59:26. > :59:32.`` are voting UKIP. The Libdral `` are voting UKIP. The Liberal
:59:33. > :59:37.Democrats on national polling face being wiped out in these elections.
:59:38. > :59:41.No we do not. I can see no circumstances where we will not hold
:59:42. > :59:43.the seat of London for example, and a seat in the south`east. The only
:59:44. > :59:47.polls that I am interested hn the polls that I am interested in the
:59:48. > :59:48.pores of people go to as thd pores of people go to as thd
:59:49. > :59:53.electorate of the country. I hope electorate of the country. I hope
:59:54. > :59:59.that on Thursday they will return me and other Liberal Democrats. Before
:00:00. > :00:09.we go these time for a quick rundown of the political week in 60 seconds.
:00:10. > :00:12.The Chief Constable of Eden and Somerset was suspended after
:00:13. > :00:13.complaints about inappropriate behaviour towards female melbers of
:00:14. > :00:19.staff. He is said to have been staff. He is said to have been
:00:20. > :00:21.devastated when he was told the news and an investigation is unddr the
:00:22. > :00:24.and an investigation is under the way. More needs to be done to get
:00:25. > :00:34.the Somalian population of Bristol voting. So far this man has signed
:00:35. > :00:39.up 1000 people. A mere of London made another mistake, this time on a
:00:40. > :00:42.visit to Cheltenham. He needed reminding of the name of the local
:00:43. > :00:51.reminding of the name of thd local candidate. I am just here to support
:00:52. > :00:59.Alex Clark. Sorry, start ag`in. And these veteran West Country rock
:01:00. > :01:09.musicians have entered the campaign for wind farms.
:01:10. > :01:16.That is it's from the West this week. Thank you to everyone who has
:01:17. > :01:23.come here today. Join us next Sunday when we will have a full rundown of
:01:24. > :01:24.the local election results. These as a full list of everybody standing on
:01:25. > :01:27.a full list of everybody st`nding on the BBC
:01:28. > :01:39.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:40. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:47. > :01:51.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:52. > :01:56.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:57. > :02:00.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:01. > :02:05.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:06. > :02:10.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:11. > :02:16.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:17. > :02:28.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:29. > :02:35.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:36. > :02:39.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We
:02:40. > :02:43.long time. It keeps us in a job We are joined now by the managing
:02:44. > :02:49.director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the
:02:50. > :02:52.polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to
:02:53. > :02:58.do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are
:02:59. > :03:01.going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high
:03:02. > :03:08.turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply
:03:09. > :03:12.not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on
:03:13. > :03:15.those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really
:03:16. > :03:20.benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,
:03:21. > :03:28.democratically, demographically with the older age profile, who are
:03:29. > :03:34.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:35. > :03:37.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:38. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:44. > :03:48.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,
:03:49. > :04:02.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:03. > :04:11.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:12. > :04:17.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:18. > :04:22.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:23. > :04:25.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:26. > :04:29.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:30. > :04:36.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:37. > :04:41.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:42. > :04:45.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We
:04:46. > :04:49.UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote
:04:50. > :04:52.share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did
:04:53. > :04:55.vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming
:04:56. > :05:02.from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is
:05:03. > :05:05.that ultimately, every single establishment party should be
:05:06. > :05:10.worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really
:05:11. > :05:13.do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on
:05:14. > :05:20.their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there
:05:21. > :05:26.is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's
:05:27. > :05:30.right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that
:05:31. > :05:35.they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like
:05:36. > :05:38.immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political
:05:39. > :05:43.parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest
:05:44. > :05:51.that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be
:05:52. > :05:58.right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I
:05:59. > :06:01.would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this
:06:02. > :06:04.one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because
:06:05. > :06:08.of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder
:06:09. > :06:15.whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of
:06:16. > :06:19.Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about
:06:20. > :06:24.voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely
:06:25. > :06:28.to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We
:06:29. > :06:36.underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I
:06:37. > :06:41.think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other
:06:42. > :06:44.standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in
:06:45. > :06:47.Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick,
:06:48. > :06:48.Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick you
:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:55. > :06:57.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:58. > :07:01.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:02. > :07:08.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:09. > :07:13.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:14. > :07:17.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:18. > :07:20.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:21. > :07:25.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:26. > :07:29.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:30. > :07:35.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:36. > :07:41.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:42. > :07:45.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:46. > :07:49.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:50. > :07:53.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:54. > :08:00.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:01. > :08:03.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:04. > :08:07.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:08. > :08:13.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:14. > :08:18.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking
:08:19. > :08:22.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general
:08:23. > :08:26.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think
:08:27. > :08:30.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term
:08:31. > :08:35.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros
:08:36. > :08:39.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year or
:08:40. > :08:44.UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is
:08:45. > :08:49.about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell
:08:50. > :08:54.yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will
:08:55. > :09:07.have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the
:09:08. > :09:12.screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could
:09:13. > :09:18.be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the
:09:19. > :09:22.mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And
:09:23. > :09:26.there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in
:09:27. > :09:30.the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There
:09:31. > :09:38.are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an
:09:39. > :09:46.honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If
:09:47. > :09:50.Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is
:09:51. > :09:55.nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't
:09:56. > :10:04.there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could
:10:05. > :10:08.happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be
:10:09. > :10:12.replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have
:10:13. > :10:17.to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David
:10:18. > :10:21.Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the
:10:22. > :10:26.right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is
:10:27. > :10:31.quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find
:10:32. > :10:36.the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories
:10:37. > :10:39.want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are
:10:40. > :10:45.right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big
:10:46. > :10:48.thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris
:10:49. > :10:53.Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the
:10:54. > :11:01.chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But
:11:02. > :11:04.where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called
:11:05. > :11:08.Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.
:11:09. > :11:12.And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not
:11:13. > :11:18.lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And
:11:19. > :11:21.some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,
:11:22. > :11:24.Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression
:11:25. > :11:30.that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed
:11:31. > :11:34.Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this
:11:35. > :11:37.rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although
:11:38. > :11:44.that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in
:11:45. > :11:49.the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the
:11:50. > :11:53.economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on
:11:54. > :11:58.your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference
:11:59. > :12:00.between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was
:12:01. > :12:04.elected in 2008 after the crash, so elected in 2008 after the crash so
:12:05. > :12:10.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed
:12:11. > :12:13.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is
:12:14. > :12:18.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the
:12:19. > :12:23.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are
:12:24. > :12:26.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in
:12:27. > :12:33.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do
:12:34. > :12:39.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in
:12:40. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on
:12:45. > :12:46.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of
:12:47. > :12:54.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for
:12:55. > :13:01.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls
:13:02. > :13:06.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the
:13:07. > :13:10.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for
:13:11. > :13:14.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday
:13:15. > :13:18.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC
:13:19. > :13:22.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the
:13:23. > :13:26.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow
:13:27. > :13:30.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for
:13:31. > :13:33.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday