:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:50.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:51. > :00:54.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:55. > :00:59.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:00. > :01:03.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:04. > :01:09.And in the West: Have Labour lost henhouse.
:01:10. > :01:13.And in the West: Have Labour lost the plot? They blew it in some
:01:14. > :01:16.target seats in the local elections including Swindon and Gloucdster.
:01:17. > :01:17.Will Ed Miliband turn things round by next year?
:01:18. > :01:29.disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an
:01:30. > :01:33.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:34. > :01:41.henhouse, our own boot should - bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:42. > :01:45.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:46. > :01:49.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:50. > :01:53.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:54. > :01:55.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:56. > :02:00.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:01. > :02:05.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go
:02:06. > :02:10.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:11. > :02:17.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:18. > :02:21.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:22. > :02:30.trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on
:02:31. > :02:34.significant issues that are the core values of our party.
:02:35. > :02:39.This is how the party president responded.
:02:40. > :02:46.At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on
:02:47. > :02:50.ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while
:02:51. > :02:54.they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is
:02:55. > :02:59.what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we
:03:00. > :03:09.consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,
:03:10. > :03:15.and a full conference. Is there a growing question over
:03:16. > :03:22.Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own
:03:23. > :03:26.view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming
:03:27. > :03:30.to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss
:03:31. > :03:34.the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting
:03:35. > :03:39.is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided
:03:40. > :03:43.he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the
:03:44. > :03:49.members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at
:03:50. > :03:55.the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some
:03:56. > :04:01.kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I
:04:02. > :04:08.am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,
:04:09. > :04:13.that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in
:04:14. > :04:20.that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am
:04:21. > :04:23.consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own
:04:24. > :04:27.before you have listened to your members. There are people who are
:04:28. > :04:31.wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about
:04:32. > :04:37.that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a
:04:38. > :04:41.sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this
:04:42. > :04:48.position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum
:04:49. > :04:51.on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules
:04:52. > :04:56.have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability
:04:57. > :05:03.to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions
:05:04. > :05:08.about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made
:05:09. > :05:14.it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal
:05:15. > :05:18.Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of
:05:19. > :05:21.your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with
:05:22. > :05:28.written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your
:05:29. > :05:32.policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with
:05:33. > :05:37.what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because
:05:38. > :05:42.the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a
:05:43. > :05:49.presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse
:05:50. > :05:53.in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for
:05:54. > :05:59.wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have
:06:00. > :06:02.got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents
:06:03. > :06:09.when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal
:06:10. > :06:14.Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing
:06:15. > :06:20.carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy
:06:21. > :06:24.issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was
:06:25. > :06:29.essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems My
:06:30. > :06:33.own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing in
:06:34. > :06:39.accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more
:06:40. > :06:44.students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged
:06:45. > :06:48.backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader
:06:49. > :06:52.through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!
:06:53. > :06:58.If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen
:06:59. > :07:03.to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have
:07:04. > :07:12.something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing you
:07:13. > :07:17.would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.
:07:18. > :07:20.But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather
:07:21. > :07:26.wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes
:07:27. > :07:32.there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or
:07:33. > :07:36.Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger
:07:37. > :07:42.ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were
:07:43. > :07:45.Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the
:07:46. > :07:51.left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 201
:07:52. > :07:55.will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve
:07:56. > :08:01.historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed
:08:02. > :08:06.Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the
:08:07. > :08:10.party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have
:08:11. > :08:16.continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of
:08:17. > :08:20.government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the
:08:21. > :08:26.election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the
:08:27. > :08:29.conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to
:08:30. > :08:34.destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is
:08:35. > :08:38.chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the
:08:39. > :08:46.coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick
:08:47. > :08:51.Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?
:08:52. > :08:59.Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John
:09:00. > :09:04.Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick
:09:05. > :09:09.Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as
:09:10. > :09:15.the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year
:09:16. > :09:20.Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you
:09:21. > :09:26.say they are not a party of government, but what looks more
:09:27. > :09:33.likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a
:09:34. > :09:37.common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of
:09:38. > :09:44.power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a
:09:45. > :09:48.minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.
:09:49. > :09:54.If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When
:09:55. > :10:02.you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great
:10:03. > :10:05.fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority
:10:06. > :10:11.government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg
:10:12. > :10:20.lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am
:10:21. > :10:23.sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy
:10:24. > :10:27.Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal
:10:28. > :10:32.Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,
:10:33. > :10:35.but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established
:10:36. > :10:38.parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We
:10:39. > :10:53.watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election
:10:54. > :10:57.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:58. > :11:01.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:02. > :11:07.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:08. > :11:10.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:11. > :11:16.kept and primed for the results What this does not show due is the
:11:17. > :11:21.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:22. > :11:24.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:25. > :11:28.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:29. > :11:32.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:33. > :11:38.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:39. > :11:43.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:44. > :11:48.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:49. > :11:54.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:55. > :11:59.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:00. > :12:03.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:04. > :12:06.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:07. > :12:10.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:11. > :12:15.Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason
:12:16. > :12:22.they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna
:12:23. > :12:27.says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like
:12:28. > :12:31.human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some
:12:32. > :12:36.conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be
:12:37. > :12:39.preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:40. > :12:46.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:47. > :12:52.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:12:53. > :12:56.Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was
:12:57. > :13:00.completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and
:13:01. > :13:06.strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.
:13:07. > :13:10.They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP
:13:11. > :13:16.does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind
:13:17. > :13:21.of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap
:13:22. > :13:27.ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European
:13:28. > :13:32.elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad
:13:33. > :13:37.error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look
:13:38. > :13:42.at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a
:13:43. > :13:46.general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour
:13:47. > :13:49.will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being
:13:50. > :13:55.second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they
:13:56. > :14:00.will target. The question for the next election, can they make a
:14:01. > :14:06.challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of
:14:07. > :14:10.these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any
:14:11. > :14:15.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:16. > :14:17.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:18. > :14:38.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:39. > :14:45.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:46. > :14:49.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon
:14:50. > :14:58.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:14:59. > :15:04.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:05. > :15:13.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:14. > :15:17.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:18. > :15:23.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:24. > :15:28.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:29. > :15:34.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:35. > :15:43.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:44. > :15:49.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:50. > :15:54.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:55. > :15:58.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:15:59. > :16:03.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:04. > :16:08.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:09. > :16:12.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an
:16:13. > :16:17.earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but
:16:18. > :16:20.that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect
:16:21. > :16:28.between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was
:16:29. > :16:31.somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of
:16:32. > :16:38.the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards
:16:39. > :16:42.and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they
:16:43. > :16:48.fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I
:16:49. > :16:54.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:55. > :17:08.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said
:17:09. > :17:15.that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny
:17:16. > :17:18.fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is
:17:19. > :17:22.increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things
:17:23. > :17:28.that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have
:17:29. > :17:35.very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham
:17:36. > :17:39.has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to
:17:40. > :17:44.people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young
:17:45. > :17:48.voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not
:17:49. > :17:55.doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has
:17:56. > :18:00.a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners
:18:01. > :18:10.know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel
:18:11. > :18:15.Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big
:18:16. > :18:21.cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to
:18:22. > :18:28.convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted.. It
:18:29. > :18:34.is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in
:18:35. > :18:38.next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,
:18:39. > :18:44.you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own
:18:45. > :18:52.site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go
:18:53. > :19:00.round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the
:19:01. > :19:10.result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled
:19:11. > :19:15.very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.
:19:16. > :19:19.Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,
:19:20. > :19:25.and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and
:19:26. > :19:32.he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was
:19:33. > :19:42.poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping
:19:43. > :19:48.basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point
:19:49. > :19:56.is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people
:19:57. > :20:04.don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better
:20:05. > :20:07.They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are
:20:08. > :20:13.worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what
:20:14. > :20:17.you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and
:20:18. > :20:22.their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened
:20:23. > :20:29.What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to
:20:30. > :20:33.see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.
:20:34. > :20:39.How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will
:20:40. > :20:43.have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in
:20:44. > :20:48.last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can
:20:49. > :20:52.have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted
:20:53. > :20:57.for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main
:20:58. > :21:06.parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that
:21:07. > :21:14.they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes
:21:15. > :21:21.but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden
:21:22. > :21:27.our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.
:21:28. > :21:33.Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,
:21:34. > :21:39.but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the
:21:40. > :21:45.time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it
:21:46. > :21:54.a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as
:21:55. > :22:00.being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a
:22:01. > :22:09.big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who
:22:10. > :22:13.govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have
:22:14. > :22:17.given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our
:22:18. > :22:26.favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the
:22:27. > :22:36.Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see
:22:37. > :22:42.from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you
:22:43. > :22:47.that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run
:22:48. > :22:52.this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did
:22:53. > :22:57.with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend
:22:58. > :23:05.their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is
:23:06. > :23:12.something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is
:23:13. > :23:18.this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do
:23:19. > :23:27.you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get
:23:28. > :23:33.Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had
:23:34. > :23:42.painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people
:23:43. > :23:47.next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview
:23:48. > :23:51.and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a
:23:52. > :23:57.massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I
:23:58. > :24:09.know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly
:24:10. > :24:17.edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the
:24:18. > :24:21.boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway
:24:22. > :24:25.you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do
:24:26. > :24:30.this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.
:24:31. > :24:36.I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore
:24:37. > :24:40.Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in
:24:41. > :24:45.the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I
:24:46. > :24:54.would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.
:24:55. > :24:59.Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth
:25:00. > :25:02.opinion poll of more than 26,00 voters in 26 marginal
:25:03. > :25:07.constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the
:25:08. > :25:11.general election next year. In 6 constituencies people were asked
:25:12. > :25:25.which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy
:25:26. > :25:33.12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour
:25:34. > :25:38.from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory
:25:39. > :25:50.MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and
:25:51. > :25:55.three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of
:25:56. > :25:59.those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last
:26:00. > :26:04.election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems
:26:05. > :26:09.combined. The communities Secretary Eric
:26:10. > :26:13.Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12
:26:14. > :26:18.point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 3
:26:19. > :26:23.MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than
:26:24. > :26:31.that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,
:26:32. > :26:37.and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,
:26:38. > :26:42.and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are
:26:43. > :26:46.behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:47. > :26:50.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:51. > :26:54.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:55. > :27:04.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:05. > :27:06.we need to redouble our efforts The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:07. > :27:11.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:12. > :27:20.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:21. > :27:26.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:27. > :27:31.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:32. > :27:38.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:39. > :27:43.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:44. > :27:48.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:49. > :27:54.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:55. > :27:58.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:27:59. > :28:04.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:05. > :28:09.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:10. > :28:14.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:15. > :28:18.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:19. > :28:23.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:24. > :28:28.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:29. > :28:33.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:34. > :28:38.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:39. > :28:42.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:43. > :28:46.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:47. > :28:55.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:56. > :29:03.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:04. > :29:07.they didn't, which is important .. I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:08. > :29:12.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:13. > :29:16.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:17. > :29:22.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:23. > :29:25.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:26. > :29:30.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:31. > :29:36.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:37. > :29:40.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:41. > :29:43.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:44. > :29:54.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:55. > :29:59.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:00. > :30:06.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:07. > :30:13.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:14. > :30:18.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:19. > :30:24.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:25. > :30:28.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:29. > :30:35.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:36. > :30:41.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:42. > :30:48.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:49. > :30:53.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:54. > :30:57.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:30:58. > :31:04.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:05. > :31:09.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:10. > :31:18.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:19. > :31:22.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:23. > :31:28.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:29. > :31:33.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:34. > :31:38.Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign
:31:39. > :31:43.if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP
:31:44. > :31:52.There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger
:31:53. > :31:55.about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see
:31:56. > :32:00.running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to
:32:01. > :32:10.listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better
:32:11. > :32:16.record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail
:32:17. > :32:22.out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European
:32:23. > :32:27.elections? If you do come third it will show they do not trust you on
:32:28. > :32:34.Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money
:32:35. > :32:40.in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants
:32:41. > :32:44.to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was
:32:45. > :32:51.the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you
:32:52. > :32:56.are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a
:32:57. > :33:04.better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.
:33:05. > :33:11.You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing
:33:12. > :33:15.that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my
:33:16. > :33:20.constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the
:33:21. > :33:28.leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate
:33:29. > :33:33.with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party
:33:34. > :33:36.did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will
:33:37. > :33:43.not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about
:33:44. > :33:50.their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When
:33:51. > :33:54.it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see
:33:55. > :34:00.Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of
:34:01. > :34:06.what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten
:34:07. > :34:11.or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%
:34:12. > :34:19.of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the
:34:20. > :34:23.Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher
:34:24. > :34:30.did. You need more than 36% in 015 to win the election. On Thursday,
:34:31. > :34:38.your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very
:34:39. > :34:45.well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 199 ,
:34:46. > :34:52.they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a
:34:53. > :34:55.campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not
:34:56. > :35:01.doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do
:35:02. > :35:05.you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a
:35:06. > :35:11.good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his
:35:12. > :35:16.publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.
:35:17. > :35:24.You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or
:35:25. > :35:32.39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no
:35:33. > :35:36.pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your
:35:37. > :35:41.policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you
:35:42. > :35:53.stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.
:35:54. > :35:58.It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and
:35:59. > :36:03.Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the
:36:04. > :36:15.Good morning and welcome to the coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:16. > :36:20.Good morning and welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the West. We
:36:21. > :36:24.are live here on BBC One to discuss the outcome of the local eldctions
:36:25. > :36:28.and to look ahead to the European results which will be known in a few
:36:29. > :36:32.short hours. One thing is cdrtain ` it wasn't a great night for Labour
:36:33. > :36:35.in the local authority polls. Yes, they made some modest gains, but
:36:36. > :36:39.they blew it in Swindon and Gloucester where victory was within
:36:40. > :36:44.their grasp. And the reason was the UKIP effect.
:36:45. > :36:47.And joining me this Sunday lorning to talk about votes, immigr`tion,
:36:48. > :36:51.gaffes and all things UKIP `re four political figures from the south
:36:52. > :36:55.west. Paul Hodgkinson for the Liberal Democrats. Thangam
:36:56. > :37:01.Debbonaire for Labour. Neil Hamilton from the UK Independence Party. And
:37:02. > :37:05.Peter Wright from the Conservatives. Let's start by looking ahead to the
:37:06. > :37:09.big story of tonight when wd find out the results of those European
:37:10. > :37:15.elections. The turnout here in the South West is the lowest since 999
:37:16. > :37:18.despite the wall`to`wall publicity. Neil Hamilton, doesn't this just
:37:19. > :37:26.prove people don't feel as strongly as you do about Europe? It hs true
:37:27. > :37:29.the European elections are ` minority sport. I do not know what
:37:30. > :37:36.the actual turnout has been but around the country probably in the
:37:37. > :37:41.low 30s at most. You make ott the whole country is up in arms about
:37:42. > :37:47.the European Union but in f`ct they do not even vote. It is the
:37:48. > :37:52.consequences of the European Union for them in their daily livds. So
:37:53. > :37:58.why do they not vote? You would have to ask them. I certainly voted and
:37:59. > :38:04.UKIP has been bringing back into the political system people who had
:38:05. > :38:09.given up voting for many ye`rs. Much of our support last year was people
:38:10. > :38:15.who had not voted for any other party in the past. There was talk
:38:16. > :38:20.about deporting Europeans who have been here for six months and have
:38:21. > :38:26.not got work. Is there a danger of actually chasing UKIP to thd right?
:38:27. > :38:31.I think we have to wait and see the exact details. I have only heard
:38:32. > :38:38.this briefly this morning. Would you approve? I think people are
:38:39. > :38:42.concerned about immigration as an issue. It comes up time and again.
:38:43. > :38:46.But throwing them out is solething else. We would have to see how
:38:47. > :38:52.feasible business impact is under current law. Theresa May sahd this
:38:53. > :38:57.morning she would examine that and if necessary work with European
:38:58. > :39:01.partners to see how we can lake that situation better. Because there is
:39:02. > :39:07.appealing that we need to do more on this issue. What would happdn if you
:39:08. > :39:12.get beaten by UKIP tonight hn the European polls? I think this
:39:13. > :39:17.discussion about being beatdn by UKIP is extraordinary. On Thursday
:39:18. > :39:24.their vote share went down. In Bristol Bay took one seat, just one.
:39:25. > :39:32.We did well in many councils across the South West. You have not taken
:39:33. > :39:36.them seriously, they have stpporters that you have written off as being
:39:37. > :39:41.right wing and as a result xou have lost out. The vast majority of
:39:42. > :39:48.people did not vote UKIP. Lots of people voted Labour. We werd
:39:49. > :39:55.predicted to make 300 counchl seat gains and we have surpassed that.
:39:56. > :39:57.Several councils are now allost completely Labour across thd country
:39:58. > :40:01.and in the south`west we have done well in different parts for
:40:02. > :40:06.different reasons. Turning to the Liberal Democrats, is there a sense
:40:07. > :40:12.of crisis in your party this morning. There is no sense of
:40:13. > :40:15.crisis. To be honest the local election results on Thursdax were a
:40:16. > :40:22.mixed bag. In Gloucestershire we did really well. We held our own in
:40:23. > :40:26.Swindon and Gloucester. There is a strong chance that you could lose
:40:27. > :40:32.your single European MEP in the south`west. I hope that does not
:40:33. > :40:38.happen. Brian Watson has bedn a brilliant MEP. He has helped me with
:40:39. > :40:42.many regional issues. He has worked exceptionally hard for 20 ydars I
:40:43. > :40:47.hope that he will win. But the chances of your party the ilproved
:40:48. > :40:52.without Nick Craig at the hdlm with Mike I do not think so. A slall
:40:53. > :40:56.number of Lib Dems said this morning they would rather that he wdnt but
:40:57. > :41:00.that is a small number. We went into the coalition for the good of the
:41:01. > :41:08.country to fix the economy `nd that is what we want to stick with until
:41:09. > :41:10.the end. The local elections were interesting because the two parties
:41:11. > :41:13.in government here ` the Conservatives and the Lib Ddms `
:41:14. > :41:16.actually increased their majorities on the councils they run. So what
:41:17. > :41:27.happened to Labour? Here's Paul Barltrop.
:41:28. > :41:32.Here in Bristol and in all of our council chambers there has been no
:41:33. > :41:36.change of political control. But what is important is what it means
:41:37. > :41:40.for 2015 because these are key general election battle grotnds The
:41:41. > :41:44.result in Bristol was very indicative. The Lib Dems suffered
:41:45. > :41:47.badly. The Greens prospered, gaining two seats. But while Labour went
:41:48. > :41:52.forward, their progress was hampered by the rise of UKIP. And thd mutual
:41:53. > :41:55.hostility was obvious. I'm proud to be representing a ward that so
:41:56. > :41:58.overwhelmingly rejected the politics of misogyny and racism and
:41:59. > :42:03.homophobia and embraced instead the candidate who gave a damn about
:42:04. > :42:12.them. We did not actually tdll a lot of lies and produce leaflets, but
:42:13. > :42:15.there we go. UKIP is here to stay. Stroud and Gloucester are two of
:42:16. > :42:18.Labour's top targets for next year, so a good local election result was
:42:19. > :42:21.vital. But the sitting Consdrvative MPs watched with satisfaction as
:42:22. > :42:26.their parties held their own to remain the largest on both councils.
:42:27. > :42:33.And Swindon was the Tories' high point.
:42:34. > :42:38.Local elections rarely see the party of government going forward ` taking
:42:39. > :42:43.a seat from Labour. I'm just ecstatic. To have record result
:42:44. > :42:47.after record result 12 months from a general election. This is all about
:42:48. > :42:51.the infrastructure, the dry run It is unbelievable. We are going to be
:42:52. > :42:55.very happy tonight. Across the West UKIP won just one
:42:56. > :43:05.seat, but got lots of votes especially in traditional L`bour
:43:06. > :43:09.areas of Swindon. There werd two conversations going on last night,
:43:10. > :43:16.one in Westminster and the other in Swindon. Whether Labour leader said
:43:17. > :43:21.we have been hurt by UKIP. H think this idea that the UKIP votd only
:43:22. > :43:29.hurts the Tories will be blown away by these results. It was generally a
:43:30. > :43:33.plague on all your houses. We lost votes to UKIP and that has cost us.
:43:34. > :43:37.So the story of this year and last year is an election heavily shaped
:43:38. > :43:46.by UKIP's success. Will thex make it three in a row?
:43:47. > :43:52.Thangam, it is clear from what happened in Swindon that UKHP took a
:43:53. > :43:58.number of your votes. They `lso took a number of Tory votes and possibly
:43:59. > :44:04.Lib Dem votes as well. They stopped us getting control of the council
:44:05. > :44:07.but we did get the popular vote That is blue`collar workers, your
:44:08. > :44:13.core vote. It would be sillx to ignore that so we are not. We are
:44:14. > :44:18.going to carry on knocking on thousands of tourists each week
:44:19. > :44:21.What we mostly do is listen to what people are saying to us. Whdn they
:44:22. > :44:31.say they are struggling with the cost of living, and we are tackling
:44:32. > :44:37.fuel prices and private rent. If we do not communicate the policies well
:44:38. > :44:42.enough we need to do a bettdr job. But we did hold the vote in Swindon
:44:43. > :44:47.and lustre. We did really wdll in Exeter. So a mixed bag. Neil
:44:48. > :44:53.Hamilton, for all the blustdr and celebrations going on in UKHP, you
:44:54. > :45:00.are just one councils the up. Is that really much to celebrate? We
:45:01. > :45:03.would like to have done better. But in Plymouth we missed four seats by
:45:04. > :45:08.less than 100 vote in each case We are the main opponent of both the
:45:09. > :45:13.Labour Party and the Tory p`rty up and down the country. In thd
:45:14. > :45:28.north`east we got 47% of thd vote in Rather, ostensibly one of L`bour's
:45:29. > :45:34.safest seats. You spoke in French, remember you do not like Europe I
:45:35. > :45:38.was the national campaign dhrect your and thought I could not ask
:45:39. > :45:43.people to be candidates if H was not a candidate myself. So I was all
:45:44. > :45:54.over the country. You did f`il miserably. 300 votes or somdthing.
:45:55. > :46:00.It was a relative success. Xou know it is a safe Tory seat. Petdr
:46:01. > :46:05.Wright, Jacob Rees Mogg, he was talking about a packed with UKIP.
:46:06. > :46:14.Does that not make some kind of sense? Well you have just hdard Eric
:46:15. > :46:32.Pickles saying that no packdd will be undertaking `` no pact whll be
:46:33. > :46:37.undertaken. We have performdd as a united government on many issues.
:46:38. > :46:43.With UKIP there are a range of issues where we are not in `ccord
:46:44. > :46:49.with their policies. UKIP are not prepared to give us a chancd. Give
:46:50. > :46:54.me one or two examples wherd you're not in accord with their policies?
:46:55. > :47:01.They wanted to charge peopld to go to see the doctor. That is not true.
:47:02. > :47:09.And another? The other would be we want to go and we negotiate with
:47:10. > :47:15.Europe before calling a refdrendum. UKIP just wants to pull us out of
:47:16. > :47:22.Europe. He is still in love with you, as it where! Nice to hdar.
:47:23. > :47:28.There is a body in the Consdrvative and Liberal Democrat bodies which do
:47:29. > :47:33.agree on certain things. Getting the economy fixed. And we have done
:47:34. > :47:39.that. After the mess made bx Labour. Zero hours contract is? Really? But
:47:40. > :47:41.there is also a big difference between the Lib Dems and
:47:42. > :47:49.conservatives because we want to have a fairer society. We h`ve taken
:47:50. > :47:54.the edge off right wing polhcies. For instance employers firing
:47:55. > :47:58.people, taking people out of paying tax at the bottom altogether. That
:47:59. > :48:03.was the Lib Dem part of the coalition. So how do you turn this
:48:04. > :48:07.around for the general election in what is your heartland, the West
:48:08. > :48:13.Country? Well we have done well in many areas. Cheltenham for dxample.
:48:14. > :48:19.And in Cotswolds we have bedn bucking the trend. We did lose in
:48:20. > :48:23.Bristol and that is a challdnge But a couple of seats in Bristol West,
:48:24. > :48:30.where we held the MP at the moment... You are the protest party.
:48:31. > :48:36.We are the natural repository for those dissatisfied with the
:48:37. > :48:41.coalition in UKIP. But we know from our own opinion polls that 60% plus
:48:42. > :48:49.vote for UKIP because they think we have the right answers. You should
:48:50. > :48:52.look on your website to try to find some! But many people who do vote
:48:53. > :48:57.for you do not actually want to leave Europe. I just know that UKIP
:48:58. > :49:02.is the new kid on the block and reigning on everyone else of my
:49:03. > :49:07.parade. We are taking votes from the Tories in the South and throughout
:49:08. > :49:14.the country. So Labour are not able to make the advances that they need
:49:15. > :49:17.to do to win the next electhon. Are people punishing you for mistakes on
:49:18. > :49:26.immigration? I was knocking on doors every day this week and did not hear
:49:27. > :49:30.one single person mentioned immigration until Thursday when I
:49:31. > :49:38.had a couple. We held onto our vote. Immigration was not the number
:49:39. > :49:45.one issue in Bristol West. Certainly not where we wear. People wdre
:49:46. > :49:49.talking about the environment. I think immigration is an isste which
:49:50. > :49:53.comes up time and again on the doorstep, whether we like it or not.
:49:54. > :49:57.Politicians are generally rdluctant to talk about it because thdy feel
:49:58. > :50:03.there is a risk of them being classed as racist. That is part of
:50:04. > :50:07.the issue that UKIP have tapped into. Do you think people are just
:50:08. > :50:14.embarrassed about speaking `bout immigration to you. To me pdrsonally
:50:15. > :50:19.or my party? That is an intdresting subject. Our volunteers said the
:50:20. > :50:23.same thing but I do not think there would be a problem with immhgration
:50:24. > :50:27.if there was real growth in the economy. I do not see that. People
:50:28. > :50:33.are worried about their sons and daughters struggling to get decent
:50:34. > :50:37.jobs. I am a businessman and bicolours `` by coach chief
:50:38. > :50:42.executives and they all say businesses is rocketing ahe`d. The
:50:43. > :50:49.economy is moving ahead. We will have 3% growth this year. Pdople at
:50:50. > :50:55.the bottom are not feeling ht. We have to move on. Some of thd council
:50:56. > :50:59.seats in the West were won by the narrowest of margins. And some of
:51:00. > :51:02.those votes will have been cast because of last minute efforts by
:51:03. > :51:06.local party activists. We sdnt Martin Jones to Stroud to whtness
:51:07. > :51:12.what really goes on within the party machines on polling day.
:51:13. > :51:17.Election day in Stonehouse. Labour activists make a last push. A few
:51:18. > :51:24.votes could stand between stccess and failure, so they need to get
:51:25. > :51:26.every known supporter to turn out. The mysterious people outside the
:51:27. > :51:32.polling stations check who's already voted.
:51:33. > :51:38.We just record the number of people who vote. The idea is that these are
:51:39. > :51:46.checked against the register back at the committee room.
:51:47. > :51:48.And this is the committee room. Actually, it's a local councillor's
:51:49. > :52:05.conservatory, transformed into a political hub.
:52:06. > :52:09.As these sheets come in I s`y 1 ,14 and Tim will either have it or not.
:52:10. > :52:12.If he has got it, it is a L`bour supporter. Canvassing tells
:52:13. > :52:16.activists who has already promised to vote for them. If they h`ven t
:52:17. > :52:21.been out, or like Dot they can't, they're here to help.
:52:22. > :52:27.Have you been to vote? Oh, xes. You have done your civic duty.
:52:28. > :52:31.Absolutely. It's the same for Labour's
:52:32. > :52:35.arch`rivals. Tories in Nailsworth fighting every bit as hard `s
:52:36. > :52:41.Labour. Just one vote could decide the election.
:52:42. > :52:50.But does the personal touch really make a difference in the 21st
:52:51. > :52:53.century? It is hugely about the personal touch. So much abott
:52:54. > :52:57.individual people and what they are doing for their communities. There
:52:58. > :53:00.are lots of people who will vote differentially. A lot of people will
:53:01. > :53:04.vote one way in a general and a different way in a local eldction.
:53:05. > :53:06.Leaflets, shoe leather and face`to`face chats.
:53:07. > :53:12.Traditional politics in the internet age. And the central tradithon of
:53:13. > :53:16.our democracy, the secret b`llot. It means you never know exactlx who
:53:17. > :53:21.anyone has voted for. The Conservatives gave you ` lift,
:53:22. > :53:27.did you vote for them? I wotld vote for anyone. I do not understand
:53:28. > :53:31.anything about politics. Local politics is changing,
:53:32. > :53:37.technology is coming in. But for the grass roots here in Gloucestershire,
:53:38. > :53:42.tradition still rules. Martin Jones there. Now there was
:53:43. > :53:46.more to the political week than just the elections. Robin Markwell takes
:53:47. > :53:53.a look back at what else happened in 60 Seconds.
:53:54. > :53:57.Ed Miliband was left red`faced after an interview on BBC Wiltshire. He
:53:58. > :54:02.struggled to recall the namd of the Swindon Labour leader when pressed
:54:03. > :54:07.by Ben Prater. You do know who Jim Grant is, Mr Miliband? You will
:54:08. > :54:13.enlighten me, I'm sure. The Swindon Labour leader. I think he's doing a
:54:14. > :54:19.good job. Will he feel you support him enough if you do not know his
:54:20. > :54:24.name? He is doing a good job as leader of the council. The Badger
:54:25. > :54:26.Trust applied to the High Court to try to stop the cull.
:54:27. > :54:29.The charity believes the government should have appointed an independent
:54:30. > :54:33.team to oversee further badger culling this year. On Mondax an
:54:34. > :54:36.attempt to list the home of Bristol Rovers as a war memorial was hit by
:54:37. > :54:40.English Heritage. There had been concern the application could stop
:54:41. > :54:43.the club from selling up. And move over Baywatch. A Bristol MP made
:54:44. > :54:46.quite a splash in her swimwdar. Charlotte Leslie appeared in so many
:54:47. > :54:59.newspapers with this picturd that she decided to recreate the pose 15
:55:00. > :55:12.years on. Like me she has kept her sh`pe.
:55:13. > :55:20.Thangham, did you wince when you heard that from your leader? Grand
:55:21. > :55:25.chaps did the same thing thd next day. That is not the import`nt
:55:26. > :55:31.issue. When people go to thd polls they are worrying about the future
:55:32. > :55:36.for their children. I do not think one single voter went to thd polls
:55:37. > :55:43.on Thursday because of that. Is there an issue that people do not
:55:44. > :55:46.see him as being Prime Minister Well I wore out a lot of shoe
:55:47. > :55:53.leather this week and peopld were talking about jobs for their
:55:54. > :55:58.children, housing, education. And Ed Miliband has the solution to all of
:55:59. > :56:01.these things. I'm looking forward to telling people next year about what
:56:02. > :56:09.we're going to do about the mess we have been left in. What UKIP do is
:56:10. > :56:21.actually speak in human language. They're not politically correct
:56:22. > :56:26.they do not have to pay attdntion to small details. You're so busy trying
:56:27. > :56:31.not to offend that you fail to communicate? I think senior people
:56:32. > :56:37.do worry about not tripping up on banana skin. But on a more local
:56:38. > :56:41.level, I usually say what I think on a local level. And in
:56:42. > :56:44.Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds sometimes that does not go down
:56:45. > :56:50.well. But I like to say what I think. And you can use things like
:56:51. > :56:55.Facebook and Twitter to say exactly what you think. UKIP will bd under
:56:56. > :57:02.the spotlight continuously tntil the next general election, everx
:57:03. > :57:09.candidate scrutinised. Everx elected president. And your record for that
:57:10. > :57:14.is not great. There are a lot of social media archaeologists that
:57:15. > :57:21.work all day long on Facebook and Twitter accounts. The only thing the
:57:22. > :57:26.media are interested in are the stories with UKIP candidates. They
:57:27. > :57:34.do not report the ones which you see daily in the local press whhch are
:57:35. > :57:37.about Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative candidates sayhng the
:57:38. > :57:47.same things. Some of the more celebrated UKIP once, for
:57:48. > :57:56.example... Not a single Labour candidate... That is outragdous
:57:57. > :58:00.What we find is the is an exclusive spotlight on UKIP and not the other
:58:01. > :58:07.way around. But you know about that so everyone should be careftl. I
:58:08. > :58:16.think social media is dangerous for all candidates. It is very dasy to
:58:17. > :58:21.come in at 11 o'clock at night after a couple of glasses of wine and make
:58:22. > :58:29.a gas which could end your political career. What did you think when you
:58:30. > :58:35.saw those pictures of Charlotte Leslie? I thought she looked in very
:58:36. > :58:42.good trim! Are you really jtdging a Tory politician by what she looks
:58:43. > :58:50.like? That is what you just did I do not think you can get too much
:58:51. > :58:58.out of that. You want to judge an MP by what she looks like. It hs one of
:58:59. > :59:05.those moments, she put hersdlf in that situation. Which was also a
:59:06. > :59:06.disgrace. And we wonder why it is difficult to get more women into
:59:07. > :59:11.politics. benefits system to make it
:59:12. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:25.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:26. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:37.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:38. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:01.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:02. > :00:05.poorest, they now have traction We have been on many programmes of this
:00:06. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:14.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:15. > :00:20.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:21. > :00:23.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:24. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:48.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:49. > :00:51.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:52. > :00:58.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:00:59. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:08.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:09. > :01:14.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:15. > :01:22.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:23. > :01:30.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:31. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:38.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:39. > :01:45.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:46. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:55.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:56. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:06.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:07. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:14.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:15. > :02:19.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:20. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:29.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:30. > :02:35.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:36. > :02:42.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:43. > :02:49.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:50. > :02:54.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:55. > :02:57.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:58. > :03:04.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:05. > :03:08.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:09. > :03:14.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:15. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:26.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:27. > :03:33.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:34. > :03:39.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:40. > :03:48.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:49. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:58.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:03:59. > :04:05.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:06. > :04:12.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:13. > :04:19.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:20. > :04:22.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:23. > :04:27.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:28. > :04:30.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:31. > :04:37.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:38. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:47.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:48. > :04:52.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:53. > :04:58.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:04:59. > :05:03.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:04. > :05:08.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:09. > :05:17.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:18. > :05:22.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:23. > :05:26.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:27. > :05:30.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:31. > :05:34.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:35. > :05:39.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:40. > :05:44.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:45. > :05:47.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:48. > :05:56.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:57. > :06:03.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:04. > :06:07.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:08. > :06:12.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:13. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:20.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:21. > :06:27.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:28. > :06:30.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:31. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:42.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:43. > :06:46.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:47. > :06:53.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:54. > :06:59.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:00. > :07:06.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:07. > :07:12.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:13. > :07:16.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:17. > :07:20.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:21. > :07:27.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:28. > :07:30.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:31. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:38.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:39. > :07:45.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:46. > :07:53.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:54. > :07:58.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:07:59. > :08:03.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:04. > :08:08.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:09. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:18.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:19. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:28.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:29. > :08:32.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:33. > :08:40.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:41. > :08:45.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:46. > :08:50.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:51. > :08:54.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:55. > :08:59.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:00. > :09:03.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:04. > :09:10.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:11. > :09:14.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:15. > :09:22.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:23. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to % in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:38.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:39. > :09:45.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:46. > :09:50.the line I am getting from them The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:51. > :09:57.nowhere there, they both got 20 of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:58. > :10:00.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:01. > :10:07.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:08. > :10:14.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed
:10:15. > :10:20.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:21. > :10:28.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:29. > :10:34.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:35. > :10:38.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:39. > :10:40.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:41. > :11:35.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:36. > :11:42.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:43. > :11:46.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:47. > :11:53.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:54. > :11:58.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:11:59. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:07.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue you
:12:08. > :12:14.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to You
:12:15. > :12:19.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:20. > :12:23.different class from the voters and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:24. > :12:28.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:29. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:38.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:39. > :12:43.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:44. > :12:48.abnormal people working for him but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:49. > :12:53.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:54. > :12:59.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:00. > :13:05.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:06. > :13:09.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:10. > :13:13.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:14. > :13:19.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:20. > :13:23.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:24. > :13:29.David Dimbleby on vote went to 4 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:30. > :13:34.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:35. > :14:11.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:12. > :14:14.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:15. > :14:19.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain