:00:37. > :00:43.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:00:44. > :00:48.The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.
:00:49. > :00:50.The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.
:00:51. > :00:52.But the country now faces a de facto partition.
:00:53. > :00:55.What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?
:00:56. > :00:58.It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.
:00:59. > :01:02.But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?
:01:03. > :01:09.Both sides join us to go head to head.
:01:10. > :01:13.I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of
:01:14. > :01:15.that? In the West, coming to a shorter
:01:16. > :01:28.even Westminster, we'll be asking In the West, coming to a shorter
:01:29. > :01:29.line near you, with hopes of a Severn barrage dead in the
:01:30. > :01:32.In London, why the minority vote one recent elections Labour, but recent
:01:33. > :01:43.support amongst people is bigger than assumed.
:01:44. > :01:46.The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control
:01:47. > :01:48.of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including
:01:49. > :01:51.Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly
:01:52. > :01:54.on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted
:01:55. > :01:58.The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that
:01:59. > :02:05.Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.
:02:06. > :02:08.Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to
:02:09. > :02:10.reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw
:02:11. > :02:16.his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered
:02:17. > :02:19.the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.
:02:20. > :02:22.The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds
:02:23. > :02:32.The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their
:02:33. > :02:36.autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the
:02:37. > :02:39.grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.
:02:40. > :02:41.All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with
:02:42. > :02:46.The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier
:02:47. > :02:48.battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no
:02:49. > :02:53.While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies
:02:54. > :02:55.and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has
:02:56. > :03:08.Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.
:03:09. > :03:18.Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they
:03:19. > :03:23.controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad
:03:24. > :03:27.organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th
:03:28. > :03:31.century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --
:03:32. > :03:37.create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it
:03:38. > :03:40.involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and
:03:41. > :03:43.Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they
:03:44. > :03:48.have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question
:03:49. > :03:56.is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely
:03:57. > :04:01.the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of
:04:02. > :04:04.the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the
:04:05. > :04:10.Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned
:04:11. > :04:13.against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have
:04:14. > :04:18.so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going
:04:19. > :04:20.back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception
:04:21. > :04:24.back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is
:04:25. > :04:27.ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni
:04:28. > :04:30.Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.
:04:31. > :04:33.Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map
:04:34. > :04:36.to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they
:04:37. > :04:46.took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was
:04:47. > :04:51.involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?
:04:52. > :04:59.We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as
:05:00. > :05:02.American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in
:05:03. > :05:05.Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show
:05:06. > :05:11.they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost
:05:12. > :05:15.forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal
:05:16. > :05:19.with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other
:05:20. > :05:24.things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do
:05:25. > :05:27.it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will
:05:28. > :05:33.take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task
:05:34. > :05:39.forces, call them what you will can effectively counter-attacked. But
:05:40. > :05:42.that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see
:05:43. > :05:51.increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying
:05:52. > :05:56.to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian
:05:57. > :06:04.style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would
:06:05. > :06:07.like to have a look at this map because the Kurds, as I mentioned,
:06:08. > :06:10.they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in
:06:11. > :06:15.the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim
:06:16. > :06:22.West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of
:06:23. > :06:25.Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the
:06:26. > :06:35.beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we
:06:36. > :06:40.have to caveat it in a few ways Firstly, there are millions of
:06:41. > :06:45.people in Iraq, so-called sushi combined families, who do not fit
:06:46. > :06:50.easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees
:06:51. > :06:53.under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people
:06:54. > :06:59.really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni
:07:00. > :07:05.Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a
:07:06. > :07:15.lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de
:07:16. > :07:21.facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the
:07:22. > :07:27.side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni
:07:28. > :07:31.Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,
:07:32. > :07:36.it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction
:07:37. > :07:41.it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on
:07:42. > :07:46.the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,
:07:47. > :07:51.Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now
:07:52. > :07:58.becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I
:07:59. > :07:59.was in Baghdad a few months ago I did actually see Iranians
:08:00. > :08:06.revolutionary guards in uniform They were protecting a senior
:08:07. > :08:09.Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they
:08:10. > :08:15.are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his
:08:16. > :08:19.compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise
:08:20. > :08:24.the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not
:08:25. > :08:26.allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive
:08:27. > :08:31.this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain
:08:32. > :08:33.into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy
:08:34. > :08:36.to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,
:08:37. > :08:39.the US and Russia. This morning he entered
:08:40. > :08:50.the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left
:08:51. > :08:54.Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11 happened and you have the Arab
:08:55. > :09:01.revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and
:09:02. > :09:04.Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see
:09:05. > :09:08.what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened
:09:09. > :09:12.with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to
:09:13. > :09:16.say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly
:09:17. > :09:21.legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do
:09:22. > :09:22.understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will
:09:23. > :09:26.affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign
:09:27. > :09:28.Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,
:09:29. > :09:32.he was chief spokesman for the State Department under
:09:33. > :09:34.Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan
:09:35. > :09:51.Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,
:09:52. > :09:55.we don't intervene in Syria, it s a shambles. What lessons should we
:09:56. > :09:59.draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the
:10:00. > :10:02.problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably
:10:03. > :10:07.have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone
:10:08. > :10:12.would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does
:10:13. > :10:17.drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what
:10:18. > :10:20.has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout
:10:21. > :10:25.both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,
:10:26. > :10:31.democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been
:10:32. > :10:37.missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have
:10:38. > :10:41.just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building
:10:42. > :10:44.dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the
:10:45. > :10:48.ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by
:10:49. > :10:52.that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,
:10:53. > :10:56.nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the
:10:57. > :11:00.White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of
:11:01. > :11:03.the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be
:11:04. > :11:10.very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to
:11:11. > :11:15.act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda
:11:16. > :11:21.inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and
:11:22. > :11:24.Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual
:11:25. > :11:35.terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and
:11:36. > :11:41.the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do
:11:42. > :11:45.enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil
:11:46. > :11:50.War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,
:11:51. > :11:57.nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President
:11:58. > :12:00.Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out
:12:01. > :12:07.of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like
:12:08. > :12:10.the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge
:12:11. > :12:14.humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million
:12:15. > :12:17.Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And
:12:18. > :12:24.now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from
:12:25. > :12:28.Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international
:12:29. > :12:32.community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's
:12:33. > :12:37.assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if
:12:38. > :12:43.anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to
:12:44. > :12:50.assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some
:12:51. > :12:53.of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have
:12:54. > :12:59.justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the
:13:00. > :13:04.terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the
:13:05. > :13:06.West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,
:13:07. > :13:10.but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the
:13:11. > :13:17.Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?
:13:18. > :13:24.In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this
:13:25. > :13:27.situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for
:13:28. > :13:33.sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that
:13:34. > :13:37.the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that
:13:38. > :13:41.ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit We
:13:42. > :13:46.are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq
:13:47. > :13:52.to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.
:13:53. > :13:54.This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the
:13:55. > :13:59.Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped
:14:00. > :14:05.with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with
:14:06. > :14:08.the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that
:14:09. > :14:14.straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark
:14:15. > :14:17.Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan
:14:18. > :14:20.and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure
:14:21. > :14:27.why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it
:14:28. > :14:31.risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way
:14:32. > :14:36.which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim
:14:37. > :14:40.bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of
:14:41. > :14:46.social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are
:14:47. > :14:52.suddenly very, very high indeed Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines
:14:53. > :14:55.were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may
:14:56. > :15:00.have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.
:15:01. > :15:08.The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor
:15:09. > :15:15.partition going on -- des facto Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit
:15:16. > :15:19.of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a
:15:20. > :15:22.way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the
:15:23. > :15:25.Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of
:15:26. > :15:31.this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,
:15:32. > :15:39.reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has
:15:40. > :15:45.done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.
:15:46. > :15:50.What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics
:15:51. > :15:59.let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria
:16:00. > :16:06.and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out
:16:07. > :16:10.a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.
:16:11. > :16:17.President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There
:16:18. > :16:23.was no terrorist. There are now If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a
:16:24. > :16:28.thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the
:16:29. > :16:48.West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.
:16:49. > :16:58.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:16:59. > :17:04.You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we
:17:05. > :17:07.would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things
:17:08. > :17:12.have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq
:17:13. > :17:13.completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays
:17:14. > :17:15.together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays
:17:16. > :17:21.together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has
:17:22. > :17:27.changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for
:17:28. > :17:35.the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either
:17:36. > :17:39.the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up
:17:40. > :17:43.and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be
:17:44. > :17:50.problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If
:17:51. > :17:55.we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know
:17:56. > :18:04.it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very
:18:05. > :18:07.destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even
:18:08. > :18:12.the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have
:18:13. > :18:26.to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is
:18:27. > :18:30.extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political
:18:31. > :18:34.groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the
:18:35. > :18:37.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the
:18:38. > :18:41.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an
:18:42. > :18:45.autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be
:18:46. > :18:57.premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is
:18:58. > :19:05.in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be
:19:06. > :19:08.serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim
:19:09. > :19:14.moderates, to form a more representative government. This is
:19:15. > :19:18.the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to
:19:19. > :19:21.need to be some major western leadership to make some big
:19:22. > :19:27.decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after
:19:28. > :19:32.Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite
:19:33. > :19:38.world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are
:19:39. > :19:41.not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not
:19:42. > :19:47.going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are
:19:48. > :19:52.big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were
:19:53. > :19:56.world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global
:19:57. > :20:00.leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I
:20:01. > :20:04.think we will leave it there, thank you very much.
:20:05. > :20:10.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:20:11. > :20:13.It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.
:20:14. > :20:15.So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer
:20:16. > :20:20.But the campaign isn't just getting heated.
:20:21. > :20:22.In places it's also down-right nasty. When
:20:23. > :20:24.Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving
:20:25. > :20:26.the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received
:20:27. > :20:34.Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,
:20:35. > :20:37.called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of
:20:38. > :20:40.For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused
:20:41. > :20:44.Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised
:20:45. > :20:45.Conservative ministers for relying on "threats
:20:46. > :20:51.With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even
:20:52. > :20:53.comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because
:20:54. > :21:00.I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie
:21:01. > :21:15.They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.
:21:16. > :21:21.Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better
:21:22. > :21:24.Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber
:21:25. > :21:30.nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both
:21:31. > :21:34.sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are
:21:35. > :21:40.incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this
:21:41. > :21:44.out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic
:21:45. > :21:48.debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides
:21:49. > :21:53.who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that
:21:54. > :21:56.fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side
:21:57. > :22:01.as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber
:22:02. > :22:07.nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly
:22:08. > :22:12.posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.
:22:13. > :22:18.I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from
:22:19. > :22:24.sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress
:22:25. > :22:28.going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and
:22:29. > :22:34.good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of
:22:35. > :22:37.the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is
:22:38. > :22:41.actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the
:22:42. > :22:47.nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this
:22:48. > :22:49.week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and
:22:50. > :22:56.the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both
:22:57. > :23:00.worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the
:23:01. > :23:08.most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling
:23:09. > :23:12.and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you
:23:13. > :23:17.look at the number of people on social media, there are more from
:23:18. > :23:23.the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,
:23:24. > :23:30.from whatever quarter they come This seemed to be connected to the
:23:31. > :23:34.office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was
:23:35. > :23:39.an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did
:23:40. > :23:48.not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on
:23:49. > :23:53.the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,
:23:54. > :23:58.but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an
:23:59. > :24:03.IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the
:24:04. > :24:06.population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running
:24:07. > :24:14.an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided
:24:15. > :24:21.voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried
:24:22. > :24:26.about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of
:24:27. > :24:30.all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She
:24:31. > :24:38.then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is
:24:39. > :24:44.like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some
:24:45. > :24:47.of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists
:24:48. > :24:53.culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to
:24:54. > :24:55.our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about
:24:56. > :25:01.her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are
:25:02. > :25:04.obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who
:25:05. > :25:10.were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same
:25:11. > :25:17.sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just
:25:18. > :25:21.part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned
:25:22. > :25:28.the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By
:25:29. > :25:30.common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive
:25:31. > :25:36.campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie it
:25:37. > :25:42.hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign
:25:43. > :25:46.compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly
:25:47. > :25:51.elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are
:25:52. > :26:00.less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to
:26:01. > :26:04.elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes
:26:05. > :26:13.Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you
:26:14. > :26:18.running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is
:26:19. > :26:23.even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there
:26:24. > :26:28.will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you
:26:29. > :26:33.so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign The
:26:34. > :26:36.campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask
:26:37. > :26:40.questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People
:26:41. > :26:45.care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to
:26:46. > :26:51.them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is
:26:52. > :26:56.legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of
:26:57. > :27:02.scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally
:27:03. > :27:10.guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you
:27:11. > :27:15.are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of
:27:16. > :27:21.the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were
:27:22. > :27:25.mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at
:27:26. > :27:32.what they say, they are twisted perhaps even evil minds. I would not
:27:33. > :27:36.disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number
:27:37. > :27:40.of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what
:27:41. > :27:44.people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting
:27:45. > :27:52.engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,
:27:53. > :27:56.we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the
:27:57. > :28:02.campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision
:28:03. > :28:07.for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both
:28:08. > :28:12.sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best
:28:13. > :28:16.light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not
:28:17. > :28:24.just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots
:28:25. > :28:32.would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that
:28:33. > :28:34.the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.
:28:35. > :28:40.The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can
:28:41. > :28:47.do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are
:28:48. > :28:53.taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I
:28:54. > :28:56.do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people
:28:57. > :29:01.across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we
:29:02. > :29:04.are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that
:29:05. > :29:08.family of nations that is more stable, being part of that
:29:09. > :29:11.Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things
:29:12. > :29:17.like education and transport. I the strange and power over things
:29:18. > :29:21.understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the
:29:22. > :29:26.tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would
:29:27. > :29:32.you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not
:29:33. > :29:37.watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in
:29:38. > :29:42.this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to
:29:43. > :29:46.keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint
:29:47. > :29:53.do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will
:29:54. > :29:55.annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I was supporting England. I was also
:29:56. > :30:01.supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last
:30:02. > :30:04.night's football match between England and Italy because
:30:05. > :30:07.you wanted to get an early night and England lost
:30:08. > :30:11.despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is
:30:12. > :30:14.in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation
:30:15. > :30:16.about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to
:30:17. > :30:23.tackle some of the big players. Well, this is
:30:24. > :30:36.the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have
:30:37. > :30:41.gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.
:30:42. > :30:46.Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is
:30:47. > :30:50.because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.
:30:51. > :30:51.They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.
:30:52. > :30:53.And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.
:30:54. > :31:04.Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would
:31:05. > :31:05.you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:06. > :31:06.packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:07. > :31:14.Thank you. No album, I'm afraid collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:15. > :31:19.Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and
:31:20. > :31:26.two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has
:31:27. > :31:28.Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.
:31:29. > :31:30.These Tory ones are proving very popular
:31:31. > :31:33.since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.
:31:34. > :31:36.And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in
:31:37. > :31:44.Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.
:31:45. > :31:54.Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership
:31:55. > :31:57.soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU
:31:58. > :31:58.commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.
:31:59. > :32:01.Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary
:32:02. > :32:04.Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old
:32:05. > :32:08.Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?
:32:09. > :32:22.Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be
:32:23. > :32:25.spending the money on the world s poor and spending it well. Glad to
:32:26. > :32:27.hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour
:32:28. > :32:35.stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any
:32:36. > :32:38.of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect
:32:39. > :32:38.team. There have been grumblings
:32:39. > :32:42.about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking
:32:43. > :32:46.in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up
:32:47. > :32:57.in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -
:32:58. > :33:11.Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not
:33:12. > :33:15.want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody
:33:16. > :33:19.wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the
:33:20. > :33:23.Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a
:33:24. > :33:26.lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge
:33:27. > :33:29.strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in
:33:30. > :33:32.trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get
:33:33. > :33:38.himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has
:33:39. > :33:45.been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy
:33:46. > :33:48.amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for
:33:49. > :33:52.Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.
:33:53. > :33:55.Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,
:33:56. > :33:59.but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.
:34:00. > :34:09.You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed
:34:10. > :34:14.Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of
:34:15. > :34:17.that? Very significant. Happy collecting.
:34:18. > :34:20.These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't
:34:21. > :34:30.Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.
:34:31. > :34:32.I'm joined by three journalists who've been
:34:33. > :34:34.furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly
:34:35. > :34:37.weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,
:34:38. > :34:45.We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on
:34:46. > :34:50.the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately
:34:51. > :34:57.that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So
:34:58. > :35:04.why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for
:35:05. > :35:11.the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa
:35:12. > :35:14.gave a speech to the conference and people said she was doing it just in
:35:15. > :35:19.case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.
:35:20. > :35:23.I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael
:35:24. > :35:26.Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to
:35:27. > :35:33.protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from
:35:34. > :35:36.Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you
:35:37. > :35:39.are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be
:35:40. > :35:51.involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic
:35:52. > :35:55.disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is
:35:56. > :36:00.their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges
:36:01. > :36:02.the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some
:36:03. > :36:06.pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless
:36:07. > :36:09.leading the most far right wing government we have had since the
:36:10. > :36:14.war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they
:36:15. > :36:16.would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.
:36:17. > :36:20.piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --
:36:21. > :36:23.charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there
:36:24. > :36:29.aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we
:36:30. > :36:32.assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything
:36:33. > :36:38.that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of
:36:39. > :36:43.cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from
:36:44. > :36:49.your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised
:36:50. > :36:53.view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about
:36:54. > :36:59.randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove
:37:00. > :37:05.as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves --
:37:06. > :37:11.Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are
:37:12. > :37:14.certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert
:37:15. > :37:17.Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris
:37:18. > :37:22.Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man
:37:23. > :37:25.Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team
:37:26. > :37:29.were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there
:37:30. > :37:34.and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the
:37:35. > :37:41.village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and
:37:42. > :37:49.you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What
:37:50. > :37:51.did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have
:37:52. > :37:55.words with you during the break It's just gone 11.35, you're
:37:56. > :37:57.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:58. > :38:00.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll
:38:01. > :38:43.be talking about Ed Miliband's 1st, let's meet our guests for
:38:44. > :38:47.today. 1 has been dubbed by the Daily Mail as the flag beardr for
:38:48. > :38:51.the West. That's the Conservative MP Liam Fox. The other is an assistant
:38:52. > :38:57.Mayor of Bristol 's Green P`rty as Hoyt. Liam, as we have you `nd you
:38:58. > :39:29.are a former Defence Secret`ry, let's talk about Iraq.
:39:30. > :39:31.unfold there. We should nevdr have got involved in the first place
:39:32. > :39:34.should we? I don't think wh`t we would have done would necessarily
:39:35. > :39:37.have changed what is happenhng. This has long been a cauldron for the
:39:38. > :39:40.dispute between the Shia and Sunni populations in that part of the
:39:41. > :39:43.world. The policy now has to be to defeat the Isis insurrection. It
:39:44. > :39:47.will be bloody come what max, and the second thing is to try to not
:39:48. > :39:49.have the involvement of othdr regional powers and certainly not
:39:50. > :39:53.having Iran or Turkey drawn in. When you say we, should we be involved?
:39:54. > :39:56.It depends what the Iraqi government is looking for. They may well ask
:39:57. > :39:58.for airpower, more specialised airpower, perhaps. That will
:39:59. > :40:02.primarily be from the US and it will be a big debate in the US and about
:40:03. > :40:05.whether the Americans should have tried harder to get a stated forces
:40:06. > :40:08.agreement with Iraq and if they had stayed and provided mentoring, would
:40:09. > :40:11.we have seen the collapse of Iraqi forces in the central part of the
:40:12. > :40:14.country? Gus, I know the Grdens never wanted a war but now that we
:40:15. > :40:18.are in a position where we `re, should Britain offer assist`nce
:40:19. > :40:21.mayor of Bristol, I'm tied tp with local communities. As far as the
:40:22. > :40:24.Greens are concerned, we should never have got involved. As Liam
:40:25. > :40:26.said, there have been probldms there for millennia but by getting
:40:27. > :40:29.involved we put in a lot of sticks under that cauldron. Thank xou. The
:40:30. > :40:32.question of how to harvest the Bristol Channel's mighty tidal range
:40:33. > :40:35.is almost as old as King Canute Last year the idea of a Sevdrn
:40:36. > :40:39.barrage was scotched by MPs who deemed it too expensive and too
:40:40. > :40:42.damaging to the environment, but the tide has now turned in favotr of a
:40:43. > :40:47.new solution, a number of mini`barrages called lagoons. With
:40:48. > :40:53.Bradley has donned her lifejacket and taken herself into the channel
:40:54. > :40:56.to investigate. Out here in the Bristol Channel, you can fedl the
:40:57. > :41:00.energy of the tides. Where we are at the moment is where the tidd is
:41:01. > :41:03.turning, getting to its peak and is ready to go back out. You c`n see
:41:04. > :41:08.why people want to harness the power of that tide. Now the government's
:41:09. > :41:12.said we will not get a barr`ge from the Somerset coast over to Wales,
:41:13. > :41:18.all eyes have turned to a ndw technology ` tidal lagoons.
:41:19. > :41:22.So how do they work? Turbinds are housed in a concrete block which is
:41:23. > :41:26.set in a wall surrounding the lagoon. As the tide rushes hn and
:41:27. > :41:30.out, it drives the turbines, producing electricity four times a
:41:31. > :41:35.day. This company in Cheltenham wants to build the first tidal
:41:36. > :41:40.lagoon in the world in Wales. This is a close`up within Swanse` Bay.
:41:41. > :41:46.Here we have Swansea docks `nd the tidal lagoon that will extend out
:41:47. > :41:49.into the bay six miles around and back again. There are a number of
:41:50. > :41:55.locations around the UK appropriate for tidal lagoons, including the
:41:56. > :41:59.Severn Estuary, around the Welsh coast, and the north`west of
:42:00. > :42:03.England, and it is our intention to follow Swansea Bay with a sdries of
:42:04. > :42:08.large`scale tidal lagoons that could deliver power to the UK. Thdy're
:42:09. > :42:11.hoping these plans will havd government sign`off next ye`r and
:42:12. > :42:17.want the Swansea lagoon to be producing power by 2018, but what
:42:18. > :42:22.about on the English side of the Channel? You can see North Hill
:42:23. > :42:36.then out in an arc, a crescdnt out to sea, and all the way back. This
:42:37. > :42:39.This man leads a group of Mhnehead businessmen with ambitious plans.
:42:40. > :42:42.Not only do they want to produce power for half a million holes, but
:42:43. > :42:45.they hope a lagoon would regenerate the whole area. By building the
:42:46. > :42:50.power, that will give us thd means to afford a ferry dock. We `re even
:42:51. > :42:54.talking about putting a wavd maker in here because the local youth
:42:55. > :43:01.would love to have something else they could do here. This cotld well
:43:02. > :43:05.become the Cannes of the sotth`west. Transforming West Somerset hnto the
:43:06. > :43:10.South of France may be a long shot. But local councils on both sides of
:43:11. > :43:14.the Channel are also talking about how they can encourage tidal lagoons
:43:15. > :43:20.and make the area a world ldader in technology. This is exactly what
:43:21. > :43:25.local authorities should be doing, this is catching the zeitgehst in
:43:26. > :43:28.terms of where local authorhties were in Victorian times, in terms of
:43:29. > :43:32.getting up, getting on, driving the economic government. The cotncils
:43:33. > :43:36.are putting in a bid for ?3 million of public money to get their lagoon
:43:37. > :43:42.dreams going. It seems likely the world's first tidal lagoon will be
:43:43. > :43:46.built in Swansea Bay, but hdre in Minehead Bay could well be the
:43:47. > :43:51.second. The race is now on to see who will build it. Joining ts from
:43:52. > :43:56.across the water in Swansea is the Labour MP Peter Hain. You'vd long
:43:57. > :44:06.been a champion of the barr`ge. That's deemed to be dead in the
:44:07. > :44:07.water now. Have lagoons stolen your thunder?
:44:08. > :44:14.still very much a prospect for the future. I support the Swansda Bay
:44:15. > :44:18.tidal lagoon but you would need 50 of them, 50, cluttering up the whole
:44:19. > :44:21.of the Severn Estuary, to ddvelop the equivalent power to the Severn
:44:22. > :44:24.barrage, which itself is thd equivalent of two or three nuclear
:44:25. > :44:29.power stations. Lagoons are much more expensive, the electricity
:44:30. > :44:35.generated is as much as thrde times more expensive at a time of sky high
:44:36. > :44:38.electricity prices, than thd barrage which produces by far the cheapest
:44:39. > :44:44.electricity of anything, gas, nuclear, the lot, and so for me the
:44:45. > :44:48.Severn barrage, as well as offering flood protection to 90,000
:44:49. > :44:58.properties, and we know what has happened in Somerset, 90,000
:44:59. > :45:02.properties and 500 square kilometres, is a no`brainer.
:45:03. > :45:06.Let's bring in our guests. Gus, the barrage would be bold, big `nd would
:45:07. > :45:13.supply a lot of electricity. Why muck about with the small l`goons
:45:14. > :45:22.It would certainly be big and bold and
:45:23. > :45:26.that is part of the problem. If you focus on the tidal lagoons xou could
:45:27. > :45:27.have them where they are most effective.
:45:28. > :45:31.If we are going to have energy sovereignty for the UK, we have to
:45:32. > :45:34.think about how we deliver ht, so it is not just about one big thdal
:45:35. > :45:37.barrage, we have to look at offshore and onshore wind, solar, all the
:45:38. > :45:46.aspects together. The barrage doesn't stack up economically or
:45:47. > :45:50.environmentally. That is not true. One of the reasons I was ag`inst the
:45:51. > :45:52.barrage was the potential dhsruption of Royal Portbury Dock and @vonmouth
:45:53. > :45:56.and the threat to jobs in the area. The uncertainty that would be caused
:45:57. > :45:59.by that would cause traffic to go elsewhere to other ports, so that
:46:00. > :46:02.economic reason was my prim`ry reason for objecting to it, but I
:46:03. > :46:04.think environmentally the c`se has not been made for the barrage. I
:46:05. > :46:08.think there was a strong case for using tidal power using the natural
:46:09. > :46:12.resource we have in this part of the country to help generate eldctricity
:46:13. > :46:20.and to contribute to our arda independence. Peter Hain, h`ve they
:46:21. > :46:23.convinced you? No, the Bristol Port would get many more jobs out of the
:46:24. > :46:30.Severn barrage. It is the only project by far that can harness this
:46:31. > :46:32.enormous clean natural energy, and lagoons can complement it btt you
:46:33. > :46:35.would literally fill the whole estuary with around 50 of them,
:46:36. > :46:38.which would be a blockage to shipping. The barrage has locks that
:46:39. > :46:41.allow shipping through to Bristol. And frankly, the guy from the
:46:42. > :46:44.Greens, either you believe hn fighting climate change and you
:46:45. > :46:58.believe in green energy, and there is nothing to compare with the
:46:59. > :47:01.Severn barrage, or you don't. If I may come back on that one, tidal
:47:02. > :47:04.lagoons would create many jobs for the region, construction jobs, and
:47:05. > :47:07.as far as energy sovereigntx goes it is crucial we pursue this, which is
:47:08. > :47:10.why we have started work with Cardiff about the Severn region But
:47:11. > :47:13.this is a project that you `pprove of, as Greens. You approve of
:47:14. > :47:18.getting something done to produce more electricity. That is a
:47:19. > :47:21.breakthrough, isn't it? I would hope they do, they are supposed to
:47:22. > :47:24.believe in clean energy and the barrage is by far the biggest
:47:25. > :47:27.renewable energy project in the world so far. The idea that we are
:47:28. > :47:33.turning our back on it, and it isn't over, there are still plans going
:47:34. > :47:38.ahead, and I am hopeful that after the next election we may buhld more,
:47:39. > :47:45.the idea we would turn our back on it for very small schemes that would
:47:46. > :47:53.not produce a fraction of the power... And would you block access
:47:54. > :47:59.No, because locks allow the shipping to go
:48:00. > :48:06.through without any charge, that is a promise to Bristol Port. Liam Fox,
:48:07. > :48:09.does that solve that problel? It is an idea, we have never even seen
:48:10. > :48:12.concrete plans, we have not seen the technology proven and the idea there
:48:13. > :48:15.might be disruption during construction for a port that has to
:48:16. > :48:18.compete with other ports for business is not on. The ide` of the
:48:19. > :48:21.lagoons, I think, is a senshble thing to look at because it does
:48:22. > :48:27.look as though you can satisfy most demand, energy production and
:48:28. > :48:38.us. For all the Conservativds' tough talk on immigration, they sdem
:48:39. > :48:40.hopelessly adrift with their promises. David Cameron wanted to
:48:41. > :48:43.cut net migration to tens of thousands, but the latest fhgures
:48:44. > :48:48.show it is up to over 200,000. Some of his own MPs, including Lham Fox,
:48:49. > :48:52.suggested a return to tightdr border controls with our European
:48:53. > :49:00.neighbours. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people
:49:01. > :49:05.` this quartet are the fund`mental freedoms that prop up Europd's
:49:06. > :49:10.single market. But after a wave of euroscepticism in May's elections,
:49:11. > :49:16.it's the free movement of pdople now coming under intense pressure. UKIP
:49:17. > :49:28.is riding high on a wave of public concern over immigration. A flavour
:49:29. > :49:31.as to why among the jobseekdrs in Bristol. I put job applicathons in,
:49:32. > :49:34.there's never anything back. It makes it harder because all the
:49:35. > :49:37.people coming through immigration and that makes it tougher. H think
:49:38. > :49:46.it is keeping rates of pay down in a lot of ways because people `re
:49:47. > :49:50.prepared to work for a lower rate of pay. Just, it feels like thdy are
:49:51. > :49:53.taking all our jobs and thex get all the pay. The number of Europeans
:49:54. > :49:57.coming to work in Britain is on the rise. It was 95,000 in 2012 but
:49:58. > :50:00.increased to 125,000 last ydar, up 31%. But while more people `re
:50:01. > :50:04.arriving from the continent, unemployment in the West continues
:50:05. > :50:10.to fall. Between April and Lay, the numbers out of work dropped by %,
:50:11. > :50:16.the lowest level since 2008. That numbers game is being played out in
:50:17. > :50:22.the production line of this bakery. These treats are selling like hot
:50:23. > :50:31.cakes, so they are expanding. The local jobs market doesn't always
:50:32. > :50:33.meet firms' needs. Some Polhsh people we recently recruited, they
:50:34. > :50:37.were positive about the opportunities. They wanted long`term
:50:38. > :50:40.full`time work and were prepared to put themselves out a little bit to
:50:41. > :50:45.come and find that. We interviewed a person a couple of weeks ago who
:50:46. > :50:49.sadly felt he wasn't able to take the job because it interferdd with
:50:50. > :50:53.his salsa classes. I'm not saying that necessarily epitomises the
:50:54. > :51:07.difference in nationality, H'm sure Poles do salsa as well, but it is
:51:08. > :51:23.certainly something that as employers, we notice.
:51:24. > :51:26.Businesses want to keep hard`working Europeans in the employment mix but
:51:27. > :51:29.growing pressure on housing and transport, the Prime Ministdr is
:51:30. > :51:33.being urged by his backbenchers to bring back border control as he
:51:34. > :51:36.I believe the UK has been a great beneficiary of the free movdment of
:51:37. > :51:39.workers and interestingly, the UK welfare budget has also been a
:51:40. > :51:41.beneficiary of labour migration and the migrant workers actuallx
:51:42. > :51:44.contribute more to the welf`re budget of the UK than what they take
:51:45. > :51:50.out, so if anyone, including the Prime Minister, makes proposals
:51:51. > :52:05.these aspects could be should be taken into account.
:52:06. > :52:09.This car wash on the outskirts of Bath is one of a number across the
:52:10. > :52:12.Romanians. They say they ard doing the jobs British workers silply
:52:13. > :52:15.don't want to, but now, with politicians starting to talk tough
:52:16. > :52:17.on immigration within the ET, the question is, just how tough should
:52:18. > :52:21.they be? We'll hear from Stdve Wood, the chairman of UKIP in Bristol in
:52:22. > :52:25.just a moment as he has dropped in to see us, but first, let's talk to
:52:26. > :52:28.Liam Fox about this, becausd you have plans for proposals th`t would
:52:29. > :52:36.see migration from the rest of the EU not stopped but certainlx
:52:37. > :52:45.I'd like to see immigration in general reduced and I thhnk that
:52:46. > :52:48.we know from our demographics as a country, we will require sole
:52:49. > :52:51.immigration into the UK. My problem with this issue is that we have
:52:52. > :52:55.always focus on the numbers and not who is coming into the country, and
:52:56. > :52:58.I think I would like to see an immigration policy in the UK that
:52:59. > :53:01.looks a lot more like the Atstralian points system that said, thdse are
:53:02. > :53:04.the skills we require in ond time. If you have the skills, you are
:53:05. > :53:07.welcome in our country. If xou're going to generate wealth in our
:53:08. > :53:10.country, you are welcome. If you're going to be consuming the wdalth in
:53:11. > :53:14.our country, you are not, so I think that is a fair proposal.
:53:15. > :53:20.You would need substantial baraka seek to work that out, in this case
:53:21. > :53:25.a card to work here, and in return if you have kids who want to go and
:53:26. > :53:31.work in Germany or Italy, they would have to go through a similar
:53:32. > :53:35.process. It depends what those countries want. What was cldar from
:53:36. > :53:39.the European elections is that citizens across Europe were a clear
:53:40. > :53:46.message that they regarded the control of borders as being totemic
:53:47. > :53:50.in the issue of sovereignty, and I think the political leaders in
:53:51. > :53:55.Europe need to listen to thd people. If he gets his way and that happened
:53:56. > :54:00.in renegotiations with the rest of the U, you are out of busindss,
:54:01. > :54:04.aren't you? Not at all. What Doctor Fox is saying is fantastic news but
:54:05. > :54:12.it is something we have been saying for the last 5 or 6 years. We need
:54:13. > :54:15.an Austrian `based systems, at the moment the EU discriminates against
:54:16. > :54:21.everyone from outside Europd because if you are from about Europd you get
:54:22. > :54:24.tougher controls. But there would be no need to leave the EU if the
:54:25. > :54:30.movement of people was restricted as Liam Fox is suggesting. As long as
:54:31. > :54:35.we are within the EU we will have free movement of people, and while
:54:36. > :54:39.Liam's values are welcome, xou have to admit as long as we stay in the
:54:40. > :54:45.EU we will not be able to h`ve tighter immigration. As long as we
:54:46. > :54:49.stay in the EU as it is currently constructive, and I think the
:54:50. > :54:51.message from across Europe hn the recent elections is that thd people
:54:52. > :54:56.of Europe want a different direction. I think what will be
:54:57. > :55:02.crucial is how European leaders react to it, but depressingly it
:55:03. > :55:06.looks like they intend to continue as though nothing has happened, and
:55:07. > :55:09.the inevitable consequence hs that every time voters are asked in the
:55:10. > :55:14.future about the direction of Europe, they will start givhng a
:55:15. > :55:18.bloody nose to bureaucrats who seem intent on ignoring their vohce.
:55:19. > :55:23.Goss, you believe in the frde movement of people? Yes, I think we
:55:24. > :55:28.are focusing on the wrong issues. We should be talking about decdnt, good
:55:29. > :55:33.jobs. We saw on the clip people in Bristol, I think the UK Govdrnment
:55:34. > :55:40.is letting those people down by not abiding adequate jobs. People in
:55:41. > :55:46.Bristol were saying we are competing against people in Europe for those
:55:47. > :55:51.jobs. It is so their jobs there in the 1st place, that is what we have
:55:52. > :55:57.to look at. That is by building a dream business party, trainhng of
:55:58. > :56:02.local people and providing apprenticeships, that is wh`t we
:56:03. > :56:06.need to be focusing on. I h`ve my car washed in 1 of those car washes
:56:07. > :56:13.and the guys, they are alwaxs European, they work incredibly hard,
:56:14. > :56:16.they pay their taxes, they do work which would be difficult to get
:56:17. > :56:22.employees here to do, what hs not to like? I am not against people coming
:56:23. > :56:26.to work in this country as long as there are jobs to be done, `nd I
:56:27. > :56:33.think that is a fair and re`sonable policy. Other countries, Canada and
:56:34. > :56:38.Australia run policies like that, and no 1 says they are unfahr.
:56:39. > :56:42.Governments don't provide jobs, governments provide the conditions,
:56:43. > :56:47.the private sector provides jobs, and in our region we are seding a
:56:48. > :56:51.big hole. People in your constituency who want to retire in
:56:52. > :56:56.Spain would have to do to a point system to live there, you would be
:56:57. > :56:59.happy to explain that to thdm. That would depend what the Spanish
:57:00. > :57:04.government do. They would do what they believe to be in their best
:57:05. > :57:06.interest, it may be in their best interest to have people in the UK
:57:07. > :57:13.taking their money and retiring there. We cannot treat Europe as 1
:57:14. > :57:18.side the soul. We need the people of those dates to do what they believe
:57:19. > :57:22.is in their own national interest. We will have to leave that debate.
:57:23. > :57:32.Thank you. Let's take a spin back through the political week.
:57:33. > :57:35.Gloucestershire County Council announced it has to make ?74 million
:57:36. > :57:37.worth of savings. The local authority warned social services
:57:38. > :57:40.must change and that care for the young and the elderly could be
:57:41. > :57:43.affected. Somerset road dubbed the highway to the sun, and somd sunny
:57:44. > :57:45.news this week. On a visit, the transport secretary Patrick
:57:46. > :57:49.McLoughlin pledged money to improve the traffic`clogged route btt kept
:57:50. > :57:53.tightlipped over how much. Plans for a second reservoir at Chedd`r were
:57:54. > :57:57.given the go`ahead by counchllors. Bristol Water says it is nedded to
:57:58. > :58:02.keep pace with growing demand. The scheme now needs sign`off from the
:58:03. > :58:06.water regulator. And the crdator of Harry Potter weighed into the debate
:58:07. > :58:09.about Scottish independence. JK Rowling, who was born in Yate,
:58:10. > :58:15.magicked up ?1 million to ghve to the campaign to keep them together.
:58:16. > :58:19.I think devolution has been fantastic for Scotland, I rdally do,
:58:20. > :58:30.and I suppose pragmatically I think we've got a great deal.
:58:31. > :58:40.Let's just pick up on those words from JK Rowling. Doctor Fox, you are
:58:41. > :58:47.a Scot. Is it any of our business what they do up their? Yes, because
:58:48. > :58:51.it affects the whole UK. I `m very much against Scottish indepdndence.
:58:52. > :58:56.I think as a nation we have each eat a great deal to gather and we still
:58:57. > :59:00.do achieve a great deal togdther. I think there is a human elemdnt that
:59:01. > :59:07.is perhaps not very often t`lked about. When the union was created,
:59:08. > :59:11.it was a union of treaty, now we are a union of people. We have great
:59:12. > :59:15.grandparents from all different parts of the UK, families work in
:59:16. > :59:20.different parts and I do not see white families should be torn apart.
:59:21. > :59:25.If people like JK rolling h`ve to spend ?1,000,000 for the better
:59:26. > :59:30.together campaign, it is not much of a relationship if we have to
:59:31. > :59:34.persuade Scots Tuesday. The Scottish Government is spending a grdat deal
:59:35. > :59:36.of money trying to persuade Scotland they would be better separating from
:59:37. > :59:41.the rest of the UK and donations like this are welcome to support a
:59:42. > :59:45.campaign that wants to hold a country together. The Greens are
:59:46. > :59:49.supporting independence, ardn't they? We believe all decision should
:59:50. > :59:55.be made at the lowest possible level, so if that is what the people
:59:56. > :00:01.decide... Even if it is dam`ging for England, because we would lose a
:00:02. > :00:04.lot? Yes, but we may be sealing our fate because we would be signing up
:00:05. > :00:09.for an eternal right`wing government, so in my own political
:00:10. > :00:18.interests, it technically flies against the wind. We would lose 50
:00:19. > :00:23.or so MPs in Scotland goes. I do not think Tony Blair would have won his
:00:24. > :00:27.majorities without a Scottish MP. I think it will be a no vote because
:00:28. > :00:31.ultimately people will refldct on the fact that as a country `nd as
:00:32. > :00:37.people, we are just better off United and I think when we look at
:00:38. > :00:41.the uncertainties, there ard so many economic and security uncertainties
:00:42. > :00:45.and they have not answered ` whole range of questions and I thhnk the
:00:46. > :00:49.public will choose the statts quo. We shall have to wait and sde. That
:00:50. > :00:56.is all we have time for this week. My thanks to Liam Fox and Gts Hoyt.
:00:57. > :01:00.If you are fed up with the football and fancy more politics, yot can
:01:01. > :01:05.catch this part of the show again on the BBC I player. As for thd World
:01:06. > :01:12.Cup, there is no competition, but now it
:01:13. > :01:15.There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's
:01:16. > :01:17.European elections, not least who'll get the top job
:01:18. > :01:21.But behind the scenes the parties have
:01:22. > :01:24.also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that
:01:25. > :01:28.And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence
:01:29. > :01:37.Here's Adam to explain how it all works.
:01:38. > :01:43.If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,
:01:44. > :01:48.you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more
:01:49. > :01:53.money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the
:01:54. > :01:58.chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you
:01:59. > :02:02.need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,
:02:03. > :02:07.the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24
:02:08. > :02:10.of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a
:02:11. > :02:14.challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -
:02:15. > :02:22.stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching
:02:23. > :02:28.his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already
:02:29. > :02:33.signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,
:02:34. > :02:41.and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was
:02:42. > :02:44.the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it
:02:45. > :02:48.leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the
:02:49. > :02:51.clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish
:02:52. > :02:53.Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their
:02:54. > :03:05.decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough
:03:06. > :03:10.MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.
:03:11. > :03:13.They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need
:03:14. > :03:17.another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting
:03:18. > :03:21.MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will
:03:22. > :03:25.get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is
:03:26. > :03:34.that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they
:03:35. > :03:39.have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.
:03:40. > :03:44.Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic
:03:45. > :03:47.party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't
:03:48. > :03:54.quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played
:03:55. > :04:02.his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he
:04:03. > :04:08.should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a
:04:09. > :04:14.major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead
:04:15. > :04:18.there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are
:04:19. > :04:23.supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of
:04:24. > :04:28.problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't
:04:29. > :04:32.there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly
:04:33. > :04:36.Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and
:04:37. > :04:43.Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and
:04:44. > :04:46.they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in
:04:47. > :04:50.Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole
:04:51. > :04:55.business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's
:04:56. > :05:00.support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading
:05:01. > :05:07.behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he
:05:08. > :05:11.doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he
:05:12. > :05:14.has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.
:05:15. > :05:21.That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't
:05:22. > :05:26.think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of
:05:27. > :05:29.the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming
:05:30. > :05:32.head of the European commission what chance do you have of
:05:33. > :05:39.repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs
:05:40. > :05:45.dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are
:05:46. > :05:47.too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country
:05:48. > :05:53.notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.
:05:54. > :05:59.Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side
:06:00. > :06:07.once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she
:06:08. > :06:11.tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got
:06:12. > :06:18.such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she
:06:19. > :06:26.had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but
:06:27. > :06:30.as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,
:06:31. > :06:38.he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks
:06:39. > :06:41.Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a
:06:42. > :06:44.power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron
:06:45. > :06:49.went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave
:06:50. > :06:55.the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in
:06:56. > :07:00.Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument
:07:01. > :07:02.that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural
:07:03. > :07:07.allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough
:07:08. > :07:16.Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.
:07:17. > :07:22.When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to
:07:23. > :07:26.have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,
:07:27. > :07:31.looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His
:07:32. > :07:37.strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of
:07:38. > :07:42.that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and
:07:43. > :07:46.dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's
:07:47. > :07:50.son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are
:07:51. > :07:56.particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and
:07:57. > :08:02.understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error
:08:03. > :08:04.and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to
:08:05. > :08:12.himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His
:08:13. > :08:21.advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.
:08:22. > :08:29.On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal
:08:30. > :08:32.state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in
:08:33. > :08:39.attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is
:08:40. > :08:45.at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.
:08:46. > :08:53.The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The
:08:54. > :08:58.mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying
:08:59. > :09:01.the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking
:09:02. > :09:07.and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the
:09:08. > :09:10.rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the
:09:11. > :09:16.juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.
:09:17. > :09:18.Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he
:09:19. > :09:22.doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he
:09:23. > :09:29.has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg
:09:30. > :09:33.posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread
:09:34. > :09:36.carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture
:09:37. > :09:39.that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full
:09:40. > :09:43.process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within
:09:44. > :09:46.his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen
:09:47. > :09:50.question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the
:09:51. > :09:56.day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as
:09:57. > :09:59.well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and
:10:00. > :10:04.you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be
:10:05. > :10:07.yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never
:10:08. > :10:13.works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed
:10:14. > :10:17.Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get
:10:18. > :10:21.involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than
:10:22. > :10:25.counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which
:10:26. > :10:31.was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by
:10:32. > :10:38.telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred
:10:39. > :10:41.because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all
:10:42. > :10:45.the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,
:10:46. > :10:51.and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular
:10:52. > :10:55.brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet
:10:56. > :11:00.their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts
:11:01. > :11:04.like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to
:11:05. > :11:07.get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next
:11:08. > :11:11.week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing
:11:12. > :11:16.that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the
:11:17. > :11:21.European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is
:11:22. > :11:26.becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think
:11:27. > :11:30.entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.
:11:31. > :11:34.Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a
:11:35. > :11:39.big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to
:11:40. > :11:42.think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a
:11:43. > :11:49.convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love
:11:50. > :11:54.him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow
:11:55. > :11:57.chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends
:11:58. > :12:01.in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I
:12:02. > :12:04.don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an
:12:05. > :12:07.admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the
:12:08. > :12:11.preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine
:12:12. > :12:16.months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations
:12:17. > :12:20.between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed
:12:21. > :12:23.Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in
:12:24. > :12:28.between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say
:12:29. > :12:32.that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed
:12:33. > :12:37.him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things
:12:38. > :12:43.obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue
:12:44. > :12:48.Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new
:12:49. > :12:51.Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the
:12:52. > :12:56.attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will
:12:57. > :13:01.get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on
:13:02. > :13:04.business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.
:13:05. > :13:09.On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,
:13:10. > :13:10.we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush
:13:11. > :13:12.you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back
:13:13. > :13:16.every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday
:13:17. > :13:19.when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions
:13:20. > :13:21.secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:22. > :13:53.it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base
:13:54. > :13:59.of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece
:14:00. > :14:05.of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people
:14:06. > :14:13.who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets
:14:14. > :14:16.of Britain's great palaces.