:00:37. > :00:42.Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay
:00:43. > :00:46.As the campaign heads for the final furlong,
:00:47. > :00:50.what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?
:00:51. > :00:53.The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.
:00:54. > :00:57.David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.
:00:58. > :00:59.Many of those tipped for promotion are women.
:01:00. > :01:03.So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or
:01:04. > :01:12.And don't know whether to support Germany or
:01:13. > :01:27.In the West, the return of the slave political guide to the World Cup.
:01:28. > :01:38.In the West, the return of the slave trade.
:01:39. > :01:41.It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the
:01:42. > :01:46.Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis
:01:47. > :01:50.we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.
:01:51. > :01:52.And for top political analysis you may
:01:53. > :01:57.as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick
:01:58. > :02:07.David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.
:02:08. > :02:09.The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be
:02:10. > :02:12.in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.
:02:13. > :02:15.The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,
:02:16. > :02:17.reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox
:02:18. > :02:20.is in line for a return to the political front line.
:02:21. > :02:27.But there's general agreement that women will do well and some
:02:28. > :02:31.of the old men in suits guard will do badly.
:02:32. > :02:40.Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.
:02:41. > :02:47.It's good to make parliament more representative.
:02:48. > :02:50.But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create
:02:51. > :02:54.injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.
:02:55. > :03:02.And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being
:03:03. > :03:04.accelerated too far too fast and they come to
:03:05. > :03:10.a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.
:03:11. > :03:23.I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is
:03:24. > :03:31.going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not
:03:32. > :03:37.be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It
:03:38. > :05:09.is an un-written pact in that the media and
:05:10. > :05:13.is an un-written pact in that the that picture of the all-male bench
:05:14. > :05:16.at Prime Minister's Questions because visibly it gave you the
:05:17. > :05:22.problem that you have been talking about. I do not think he has allowed
:05:23. > :05:26.it to be all-male since that embarrassing image. I can understand
:05:27. > :05:29.the criticism made of this approach if it was the case that all the
:05:30. > :05:37.women being promoted by talentless but you have to be very harsh to
:05:38. > :05:51.look at them and say that they would have much less to offer than the
:05:52. > :05:55.likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be pro-feminist. The tests for David
:05:56. > :05:59.Cameron is that having raised expectations he has to give them
:06:00. > :06:04.substantial jobs. They have to be given departments to run or big
:06:05. > :06:07.portfolios to carry. If they are given media campaign positions in
:06:08. > :06:15.the run-up to the election it looks perfunctorily. He is under some
:06:16. > :06:21.trouble to perhaps suggest a female commissioner to the European Union
:06:22. > :06:26.Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has made clear that if he proposes a
:06:27. > :06:35.woman candidate they will get a better job. Saying they would like
:06:36. > :06:39.ten out of the 28 to be women. We are going to get the name of the
:06:40. > :06:48.British candidate at the same time as the reshuffle. The first
:06:49. > :06:52.face-to-face meeting, he will be able to put a name. There are other
:06:53. > :07:04.names in the frame. People like Archie Norman. That come from? His
:07:05. > :07:07.name is in the frame. There would be great scepticism of giving it to
:07:08. > :07:11.Andrew Lansley. People would think he was the man who mucked up the
:07:12. > :07:20.reform of the NHS. Who is it going to be? Either a woman or a man. I
:07:21. > :07:26.would not be surprised if they go for someone believe dynamic. Someone
:07:27. > :07:32.who would square the party. Would that not mean a by-election? It
:07:33. > :07:37.might. She is a high profile Eurosceptic. She is a very competent
:07:38. > :07:42.former banker. It would be the smart choice. I have no idea but my
:07:43. > :07:51.favourite rumour is Michael Howard. That had some legs for a while.
:07:52. > :07:55.The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street predict with confidence that the PM
:07:56. > :07:57.is going to promote more women in his cabinet reshuffle.
:07:58. > :08:00.The move can be seen as part of a move across British public life
:08:01. > :08:03.to do more to make our institutions less male and less white.
:08:04. > :08:05.But as the list of schemes to encourage diversity
:08:06. > :08:16.grows ever-longer, have we abandoned the idea of appointment by merit?
:08:17. > :08:24.Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for new trains. It does not get more
:08:25. > :08:27.macho than the Crossrail project. When Crossrail looked at the
:08:28. > :08:38.construction industry they realise that less than 20% was made up
:08:39. > :08:38.construction industry they realise women and they asked, can we fix it?
:08:39. > :08:44.They are trying with a recruitment drive that has brought in female
:08:45. > :08:49.engineers like this woman. She even has a tunnel named after her. Having
:08:50. > :08:53.more female engineers and construction brings a bigger range
:08:54. > :08:58.of opinions, a bigger range of ideas, more diversity, into the
:08:59. > :09:02.industry, and makes it better as a whole. It is the issue being
:09:03. > :09:07.grappled in another male dominated workplace, the Cabinet. There is
:09:08. > :09:11.about to be a reach shuffle and the rumour is David Cameron is going to
:09:12. > :09:16.promote a lot of female ministers. It was a lack of promotion that
:09:17. > :09:19.annoyed Harriet Harman this week. She claimed Gordon Brown did not
:09:20. > :09:25.make her Deputy Prime Minister because she was a woman. It was
:09:26. > :09:29.strange that in a hard-fought highly contested election to be deputy
:09:30. > :09:33.leader of the Labour Party, and having won against men in the
:09:34. > :09:36.Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy leader of the Labour Party I
:09:37. > :09:41.discovered that I was not to be appointed as Deputy Prime Minister.
:09:42. > :09:48.For women in this country, no matter how able they are, the matter how
:09:49. > :09:52.hard they might work, they are still not equal. There are initiatives to
:09:53. > :09:58.make the world feel more equal. In the City the EU wants a quarter for
:09:59. > :10:03.women in the boardroom but that goal of making 40% of the top floor
:10:04. > :10:09.female. At the BBC the boss of the TV division says no panel show
:10:10. > :10:13.should ever be all-male. In the ever glamorous movie business the British
:10:14. > :10:19.film Institute announced their new thematic system to get lottery
:10:20. > :10:25.funding projects improving diversity on screen and off and helping social
:10:26. > :10:30.mobility. Employers like Crossrail are not allowed to positively
:10:31. > :10:35.discriminate but under the quality act of 2010 if two candidate for a
:10:36. > :10:37.job are just as good you are allowed to base your decision on
:10:38. > :10:44.characteristics like race, sexuality and gender. Some worry it has
:10:45. > :10:52.chipped away at the idea of hiring on merit. A woman and three men
:10:53. > :10:55.going for a job, two of the men are really good and the woman is not
:10:56. > :11:02.quite as good but she gets the job anyway. That will create injustice,
:11:03. > :11:10.a feeling that she did not deserve the job, resentment. It does not
:11:11. > :11:16.advance equality in society at all. On this project they want to leave a
:11:17. > :11:20.concrete legacy of a more diverse construction industry. The question
:11:21. > :11:31.is, what tools do you use when it comes to the rest of society?
:11:32. > :11:33.I'm joined now by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown,
:11:34. > :11:36.a columnist for the Independent, and by Munira Mirza, the deputy
:11:37. > :11:43.mayor of London responsible for education and culture.
:11:44. > :11:51.Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches though. Should David Cameron be
:11:52. > :11:59.promoting women? He is going to do it anyway. He should have a long
:12:00. > :12:03.time ago. It does not feel quite right that a few months before the
:12:04. > :12:08.election it would do the party a lot of good to be seen as a party
:12:09. > :12:14.properly reflective of the entire population. He should promote women
:12:15. > :12:17.because they are women? I think he should think about lots of different
:12:18. > :12:24.factors, whether the people he wants promote have proven themselves in
:12:25. > :12:26.their current reefs, whether they are good performers in the media,
:12:27. > :12:32.whether they represent different parts of the party, but the main
:12:33. > :12:37.principle is to promote on basis of merit. There are many talented women
:12:38. > :12:43.who fill that description. It should be that merit is the important thing
:12:44. > :12:45.rather than what you were born with. The thing about positive
:12:46. > :12:52.discrimination as it flies in the face of that kind of principle. You
:12:53. > :12:54.are shaking your head. We have always had positive discrimination.
:12:55. > :13:01.Men of a certain class have appointed in their own image because
:13:02. > :13:06.they feel most comfortable with that. We have had unspoken positive
:13:07. > :13:12.discrimination in this country and every other country throughout
:13:13. > :13:18.history. We are asking as women, all minorities, let us get into the same
:13:19. > :13:22.game. What do you say? You cannot solve the racism or the sexism of
:13:23. > :13:28.the past by more racism and sexism. It is not the past. There are
:13:29. > :13:33.complex reasons why a smaller number of women will appear in certain
:13:34. > :13:37.industries. It has a lot to do with childcare, education, expected. You
:13:38. > :13:43.cannot short cut that by setting a target. That is not how you achieve
:13:44. > :13:45.equality. Things are changing and more women are appearing in
:13:46. > :13:50.engineering and so on but it will take time. My worry is that these
:13:51. > :13:53.kinds of measures are counter-productive and undermine the
:13:54. > :13:54.perception that women can do it on their own merit rather
:13:55. > :13:58.counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it than
:13:59. > :14:02.because they need a helping hand. It is not a helping hand. It is to say,
:14:03. > :14:13.we are as good as men and these hidden barriers. Dot. Either they
:14:14. > :14:15.are not as good or they do not want it, which is just how we persuade
:14:16. > :14:21.are not as good or they do not want it, which ourselves that it is not
:14:22. > :14:26.happening, or there are barriers. How we judge meritocracy is at the
:14:27. > :14:33.heart of it. Are lots of industries won there are not that many women,
:14:34. > :14:39.such as engineering. We need more engineers generally. I think it is
:14:40. > :14:46.fine to try to encourage more women to study that subject. By setting a
:14:47. > :14:55.target you put pressure on an organisation. You tried to ignore
:14:56. > :15:18.the complex reasons why women do not go into those sectors. I think an
:15:19. > :15:23.all-female short list achieved miracle in Parliament. This is
:15:24. > :15:27.following up from having an injection of women coming up because
:15:28. > :15:34.the system was changed and a large percentage of women went into
:15:35. > :15:41.Parliament under the all-female short list were brilliant, so why
:15:42. > :15:47.not? So if the Prime Minister is mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has
:15:48. > :15:56.to be female and vice versa? Yes, absolutely, 50-50. We need to
:15:57. > :16:03.reflect the population. If we want to play this as a symbolic gesture,
:16:04. > :16:07.ideally we should have one of each. Why should a man get the job if you
:16:08. > :16:16.have a great female prime minister and a great female Deputy Prime
:16:17. > :16:25.Minister? I personally wouldn't mind this. I hear the disgruntled man and
:16:26. > :16:30.I want to come -- them to come with us. You're choosing people on the
:16:31. > :16:36.basis of traits they were born with. Are there too many Indian
:16:37. > :16:41.doctors in the NHS? I would argue not. Given that we tend to have male
:16:42. > :16:45.prime ministers rather than female ones, and we don't see another
:16:46. > :16:56.female one coming down the pipe very quickly... In the time before women
:16:57. > :17:00.short lists by the way. If you had a male prime minister with a female
:17:01. > :17:06.Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that give some balance? Why women? Why
:17:07. > :17:11.not working class person, which group do you prioritise? I would go
:17:12. > :17:15.with you that we need something fundamental to change. This idea
:17:16. > :17:19.that what we have now is a reflection of a genuine meritocracy
:17:20. > :17:22.is highly questionable. I would argue that when you look at the
:17:23. > :17:24.statistics things are changing. argue that when you look at the
:17:25. > :17:29.statistics things There are more women appearing in parts of public
:17:30. > :17:36.life, that is a long-term trend, but if you are trying to appoint people
:17:37. > :17:40.on what they were born with... That is not the only reason but it is an
:17:41. > :17:47.additional reason. She has to be able to do the job, obviously. I am
:17:48. > :17:51.saying the policy of hazard to discrimination explicitly state that
:17:52. > :17:55.you should choose somebody who is female because they are female. At
:17:56. > :18:01.the moment there is already enough suspicion about women who are
:18:02. > :18:05.successful to get to the senior position and if you institutionalise
:18:06. > :18:11.it you reinforce that suspicion. Harriet Harman is still complaining
:18:12. > :18:16.women are not being treated fairly. I think the policy reinforces the
:18:17. > :18:22.prejudice that women are not getting there because they are treated on
:18:23. > :18:25.the same basis. Although you may not want to have the all-female short
:18:26. > :18:31.list forever, wasn't it the kind of shock to the system that made a
:18:32. > :18:39.visible change in female representation, which the Tory side
:18:40. > :18:44.hasn't got? Of course it will work short-term but longer term it has a
:18:45. > :18:48.very degrading effect on the principle of equality and the fact
:18:49. > :18:52.Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't treated equally, whether it is true
:18:53. > :19:00.or not, the perception is still there. A number of women find this
:19:01. > :19:05.position must be reserved for a woman lying patronising, and
:19:06. > :19:14.speaking of patronising women, you spoken your Independent column, she
:19:15. > :19:19.presses all of the buttons for white people... Was that patronising and
:19:20. > :19:24.offensive? Probably. I wrote it because I felt that at the time but
:19:25. > :19:31.the point is that I was a token when I was appointed. The paper brought
:19:32. > :19:36.me in because I was a woman and I was a muslin or whatever. You are
:19:37. > :19:49.not writing about yourself. I was writing... It doesn't mean you don't
:19:50. > :19:57.criticise other women. We absolutely have to be tough, Manira is tough
:19:58. > :20:03.and so am I. Do you want to take back what you wrote? No. Do you
:20:04. > :20:10.really think positive discrimination has gone too far? I think there is
:20:11. > :20:15.already a suspicion out there that in certain sectors women are being
:20:16. > :20:19.promoted for the wrong reasons or ethnic minorities are being promoted
:20:20. > :20:25.for the wrong reasons. That is a shame and my worry is that by tying
:20:26. > :20:30.funding to your ethnicity or your gender, by saying you will get a
:20:31. > :20:34.promotion if you check that box, but you feel that resentment and
:20:35. > :20:44.prejudice and undermine the case for inequality. I wanted to be treated
:20:45. > :20:50.equally, because I am capable of doing that job. Only two months to
:20:51. > :20:59.go before Scotland takes its biggest constitutional decision in 300 years
:21:00. > :21:04.- should it quit or stay with the UK? For some in Scotland campaign
:21:05. > :21:06.has been going on forever. What has been the impact on the campaign to
:21:07. > :21:52.date? been the impact on the campaign to
:21:53. > :22:50.George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso
:22:51. > :22:57.George Osborne says there will be no have any of it in an independent
:22:58. > :23:01.Scotland, why take the risk? All of these things should be the case
:23:02. > :23:07.because they are in the best interests of Scotland and the rest
:23:08. > :23:13.of the UK but we want the powers to enable us to grow our economy
:23:14. > :23:17.faster, to be productive, and overtime increased the prosperity of
:23:18. > :23:22.people living in Scotland. We also want powers over our social security
:23:23. > :23:28.system so that we can create a system that meets our needs, one
:23:29. > :23:32.that also has a safety net for the most vulnerable people in our
:23:33. > :23:39.society. Independence is about letting us decide our own
:23:40. > :23:42.priorities. You didn't answer my question, you cannot guarantee you
:23:43. > :23:48.would be able to keep the pound within a monetary union, stay in
:23:49. > :23:53.NATO and the EU, you cannot guarantee you could produce any of
:23:54. > :23:58.these things, correct? I would argue that we can because these things are
:23:59. > :24:04.also in the interest of the rest of the UK. No country can be prevented
:24:05. > :24:09.from using the pound, I suggest we use that within a formal monetary
:24:10. > :24:13.union. We have had the UK minister quoted in the Guardian saying the
:24:14. > :24:18.position of the UK Government right now is one based on campaign
:24:19. > :24:24.rhetoric and following a yes vote, of course there would be a currency
:24:25. > :24:29.union. Who is that minister? The Minister is unnamed, but
:24:30. > :24:35.nevertheless that story in the Guardian was a solid one and not
:24:36. > :24:40.substantially denied. So you are basing your monetary policy on one
:24:41. > :24:50.on named minister in one story? Basing it on Common sense because
:24:51. > :24:53.monetary union would be in the best interests for Scotland but also
:24:54. > :24:59.overwhelmingly in the interests of the rest of the UK, given their
:25:00. > :25:06.trading relationship with Scotland and the contribution Scotland's
:25:07. > :25:12.exports make. We are having a very good debate and the UK Government
:25:13. > :25:21.and the no campaign, and this is not a criticism, want to talk up in --
:25:22. > :25:26.uncertainty to make people feel scared, but after independence there
:25:27. > :25:30.will be constructed process of negotiation. Let's stick with the
:25:31. > :25:33.monetary union because most economists agree it would be very
:25:34. > :25:39.good for an independent Scotland to have a monetary union but George
:25:40. > :25:44.Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander are unequivocal, they say you won't
:25:45. > :25:50.get it. You claim they are bluffing but again you cannot guarantee that
:25:51. > :25:54.so why the risk? I would say the benefits of independence are
:25:55. > :25:58.substantial but I would also say to George Osborne and his counterparts
:25:59. > :26:02.in the other parties that it would be a very brave Chancellor that says
:26:03. > :26:06.to businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary
:26:07. > :26:09.additional transaction costs of half a very brave Chancellor that says to
:26:10. > :26:13.businesses in the rest of the UK that they have to incur unnecessary
:26:14. > :26:18.additional transaction costs of half. What we are doing is making a
:26:19. > :26:23.case that is based on common sense and voters in Scotland will listen
:26:24. > :26:28.to that case being put forward by the other side as well, and they
:26:29. > :26:35.will come to a judgement of the common-sense position. Let's look at
:26:36. > :26:44.EU membership because you haven't been able to guarantee the monetary
:26:45. > :26:49.union. When President Barroso said that a seamless transition to EU
:26:50. > :26:53.membership for an independent Scotland was anything but certain,
:26:54. > :27:00.and one said it could even be impossible, you dismissed him
:27:01. > :27:09.because he was standing down, but been -- venue EU president says the
:27:10. > :27:13.same, do you dismissed him? What we are doing... I should say at the
:27:14. > :27:18.outset of this, we have said repeatedly to the UK Government,
:27:19. > :27:23.let's go jointly and ask for a formal opinion on the EU
:27:24. > :27:29.commission. The EU commission have said they will only do that at this
:27:30. > :27:35.stage if the UK Government ask for it, they are point blank refusing to
:27:36. > :27:41.do that, you have to ask why? It is in their interests to talk up
:27:42. > :27:45.uncertainty. Scotland is an integral part of the European Union, we have
:27:46. > :27:51.been for 40 years, we comply with the rules and regulations... Mr
:27:52. > :27:57.Juncker knows all of that but he still says it will be anything but a
:27:58. > :28:02.seamless transition. He said you could not join the European Union by
:28:03. > :28:16.sending a letter, that is not our proposal. We set down a robust
:28:17. > :28:21.proposal and the timescale we think is reasonable under these
:28:22. > :28:26.circumstances. There are many nationals of other states living in
:28:27. > :28:30.Scotland right now, if we were to be outside of the European Union for
:28:31. > :28:34.any period of time, something the current treaty doesn't even provide
:28:35. > :28:38.for, they would lose their right to stay here. The interests of Scotland
:28:39. > :28:43.and the interests of European Union are in favour of a seamless
:28:44. > :28:45.transition. It comes down to common sense and people in Scotland will
:28:46. > :28:48.make sense and people in Scotland will
:28:49. > :28:55.their own judgement on who is talking the common-sense. What about
:28:56. > :29:00.NATO, two years ago you told Newsnight the SNP's position is that
:29:01. > :29:05.we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a democratic debate, we looked at
:29:06. > :29:09.whether it would be in the interests of an independent Scotland, which
:29:10. > :29:18.forms a significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic and
:29:19. > :29:26.the party changed its mind. It did so in a thoroughly democratic way.
:29:27. > :29:36.That is the nature of democracy. Would you accept the protection of
:29:37. > :29:42.the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is no doubt the SNP's position is that
:29:43. > :29:49.we do not want nuclear weapons in Scotland. That is not what I asked.
:29:50. > :29:54.The world rid themselves of nuclear weapons. One of the interesting
:29:55. > :30:00.point is of the 28 member countries of Natal 25 do not have nuclear
:30:01. > :30:09.weapons. An independent Scotland... I asked if you would accept the
:30:10. > :30:15.nuclear umbrella. The key feature of NATO's military dog train is now
:30:16. > :30:23.clear shrike. We would accept the basis of which NATO is founded but
:30:24. > :30:26.we would argue two things. We want Trident removed from Scotland rather
:30:27. > :30:32.than have a situation where might we are spending ?100 billion over the
:30:33. > :30:34.next generation replacing Trident and we would argue within the
:30:35. > :30:40.international community that the world should move much more quickly
:30:41. > :30:43.to rid itself of nuclear weapons. That is the principal position and
:30:44. > :30:50.won the SNP has held consistently for many years. You would get rid of
:30:51. > :30:55.one of the key parts of the NATO deterrent based in Scotland. You
:30:56. > :31:01.would kick that out. You would not accept all of the club rules because
:31:02. > :31:06.you do not like the idea of nuclear. Why would they like a member like
:31:07. > :31:10.you in? Because Scotland is a significant part of the territory of
:31:11. > :31:15.the North Atlantic. You do not subscribe to the rules. 25 of the
:31:16. > :31:24.member states of NATO are non-nuclear members. You are saying
:31:25. > :31:29.you do not follow the doctrine. NATO has said it wants to move away from
:31:30. > :31:33.reliance on nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would be
:31:34. > :31:37.entering the majority mainstream of NATO as a country that did not have
:31:38. > :31:41.nuclear weapons. By leading by example our moral authority and
:31:42. > :31:48.encouraging others to do likewise would be increased. Money and oil,
:31:49. > :31:50.the finance minister has said that an independent Scotland would
:31:51. > :31:56.increase public spending by 3% a year. He would pay for that by
:31:57. > :32:00.borrowing. Your First Minister says he is going to stash money in an oil
:32:01. > :32:09.fund. You're going to borrow and save. How does that work? There are
:32:10. > :32:12.two points. Firstly in terms of the outlook for finances and what is one
:32:13. > :32:17.of the central debates of this referendum campaign, austerity that
:32:18. > :32:23.we know will continue if we stay as part of the Westminster system
:32:24. > :32:27.versus prosperity. The economy can afford a higher level of increase in
:32:28. > :32:33.public spending while we continue to have deficit levels at a sustainable
:32:34. > :32:38.level. What is the point of borrowing and saving at the same
:32:39. > :32:41.time? People who have a mortgage and the savings account would not
:32:42. > :32:48.themselves what the wisdom of that is. This is based on recommendations
:32:49. > :32:53.of our expert fiscal Commission that as borrowing reduces to sustainable
:32:54. > :32:58.levels it makes sense to start saving a proportion of our oil
:32:59. > :33:04.wealth. In Norway, which has many similarities to Scotland, they have
:33:05. > :33:09.an oil fund worth ?500 billion. Scotland is part of the Westminster
:33:10. > :33:16.system is sitting on a share of UK debt. We can continue to allow our
:33:17. > :33:19.oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to be mismanaged or we can decide we
:33:20. > :33:26.are going to manage that resource better in the years to come. Your
:33:27. > :33:29.figures do not add up unless you are about oil prices and revenue and you
:33:30. > :33:33.have been consistently wrong in your predictions. Last year you forecast
:33:34. > :33:43.that revenues would be the .7 billion more than they actually work
:33:44. > :33:49.-- 3.7 billion. The cost of the Scottish school system gone. There
:33:50. > :33:52.were particular reasons for that in terms of interruption to production
:33:53. > :33:59.and bigger levels of investment. Used ill have to find the money. Let
:34:00. > :34:03.me explain. They are based on robust assumptions, firstly a production
:34:04. > :34:07.estimates that is in line with the estimates of the oil and gas
:34:08. > :34:13.industry. Use of figures that are based on production of 10 billion
:34:14. > :34:19.barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been wrong as well. It is 24 billion left
:34:20. > :34:23.to be recovered. That is what is in the UK Government's oil and gas
:34:24. > :34:30.strategy so production in line with industry estimates and an oil price
:34:31. > :34:36.of $110 per barrel which is flat in cash terms would be a real terms
:34:37. > :34:40.reduction. The Department of energy is estimating $128 per barrel so our
:34:41. > :34:46.estimate compared to that is cautious. These are robust estimates
:34:47. > :34:53.based on robust assumptions. Except they have been wrong. Finally, we
:34:54. > :34:57.hear a lot from you and your fellow nationalists, you want a
:34:58. > :35:02.Scandinavian style social democracy, you know how to spend the money but
:35:03. > :35:06.you never tell us about social democratic levels of taxation. Also
:35:07. > :35:13.should grizzlies have higher levels of tax in Scotland does at the
:35:14. > :35:20.moment -- all social grizzlies. I want a Scottish style of social
:35:21. > :35:24.democracy. Free education, free medicines and balancing the books
:35:25. > :35:29.every single year. We want to get more people into work in Scotland,
:35:30. > :35:32.raise the level of distribution in the Labour market and make the
:35:33. > :35:39.economy more productive so we are raising the overall tax revenue.
:35:40. > :35:41.Over the last 33 years we have generated more taxpayer head of
:35:42. > :35:49.population than is the case and the rest of the UK. Those last 33 years,
:35:50. > :35:53.some of those years oil prices would have been high and in others they
:35:54. > :35:57.would have been law but we take different decisions. A report showed
:35:58. > :36:03.that if we go as part of the Westminster system down the plate --
:36:04. > :36:09.route of replacing Trident then the cost will be as high as ?4 billion
:36:10. > :36:14.every year. Our share of that is the hundred million pounds a year. Let
:36:15. > :36:18.us get access to our own resources so we can make different and better
:36:19. > :36:24.decisions about how to spend the resources we have. You are promising
:36:25. > :36:29.Scandinavian style social democratic levels of public spending but you
:36:30. > :36:36.say you will not need a top rate of tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia
:36:37. > :36:41.has, that all 25%, which is what Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You
:36:42. > :36:46.are going to have the spending but none of the taxes that make it
:36:47. > :36:50.possible in Scandinavia. For mischievous reasons you are met --
:36:51. > :36:57.misrepresenting what I am saying. The Scottish economy can afford it
:36:58. > :37:01.and we want to generate more wealth in our economy. We want to use the
:37:02. > :37:06.existing resources Scotland has. We are the 14th richest country in the
:37:07. > :37:12.world in terms of what we produce. We do not want to be wasting
:37:13. > :37:15.resources. We want to be spending resources on the things that other
:37:16. > :37:19.priority for the people of Scotland. These are the benefits and the
:37:20. > :37:22.opportunities really get if we take the opportunity of voting yes and
:37:23. > :37:59.becoming independent. is our last show for the summer.
:38:00. > :38:12.Coming up, the council is getting into a pickle. Orders have been
:38:13. > :38:22.issued over bins, car parks, is he stepping on people's toes? Guests
:38:23. > :38:27.today will be speaking in a moment, but first, Westminster is reeling
:38:28. > :38:32.from allegations of child sex abuse dating back to the 1980s. Two
:38:33. > :38:47.enquiries were both welcomed by Tessa Munter, the MP for Wales. She
:38:48. > :38:52.was something I did not speak about until I was in my early 30s when I
:38:53. > :38:59.was expecting my first child. So I absolutely understand how difficult
:39:00. > :39:09.it is to live with that kind of pressure. And it is pressure.
:39:10. > :39:14.Immense pressure. You can't live with yourself because you feel
:39:15. > :39:16.guilty, and that is not true. What do you make of her decision to come
:39:17. > :40:37.out, you this week, tell us about that.
:40:38. > :40:41.Well, I have a neurological illness which affects my muscle control on
:40:42. > :40:49.my left side. Most journalists in Bristol and London know all about
:40:50. > :40:55.it. I made a speech a year ago and the Daily Mail referred to me as
:40:56. > :40:57.being stiff. I referred to this in an interview recently in a magazine
:40:58. > :41:08.and then got a lot of comments on the back of it. He has written me a
:41:09. > :41:13.None of us want to be treated as None of us want to be treated as
:41:14. > :41:18.robots or boring creatures. We want some colour and personality to come
:41:19. > :41:21.out of it. But there is a line that should not be crossed. People should
:41:22. > :41:28.not poke fun if it is something physical. The House of Commons is a
:41:29. > :41:35.theatre of cruelty. You are all trying to make each other look
:41:36. > :41:39.silly. Often when I give talks to people about making speeches I say
:41:40. > :41:44.the House of Commons is probably the most unforgiving stage in the entire
:41:45. > :41:48.country on which to try and speak. I enjoy speaking but I'm more worried
:41:49. > :41:59.about what I'm saying rather than how I'm looking. Yet people still
:42:00. > :42:05.want to be an MP. Paul Maynard MP has cerebral palsy. Quite a few MPs
:42:06. > :42:09.have funny voices and they get made fun of. But when he started
:42:10. > :42:13.speaking, there was almost this quick reaction where people were
:42:14. > :42:19.about to make fun of him and then suddenly thought, hang on, this is a
:42:20. > :42:23.disability. But you could say, people cannot help the boys as they
:42:24. > :42:29.were born with, whether it is a disability or just the way they are.
:42:30. > :42:36.Now, you might have thought Bristol had long since cut its links with
:42:37. > :42:39.the slave trade. Not so. A spate of arrests and prosecutions suggest
:42:40. > :42:45.many adults and children are still being abused and exploited. The
:42:46. > :42:49.government is suggesting more support for victims and harsher
:42:50. > :43:02.penalties. It is a start, but some think the law should go further.
:43:03. > :43:06.Documented on film, the harrowing and true story of a Vietnamese
:43:07. > :43:12.teenager smuggled to Britain on the promise of work. This is where he
:43:13. > :43:19.ended up. When a cannabis factory was raided, it was he who was
:43:20. > :43:24.arrested and jailed. Latest figures show last year 1700 people were
:43:25. > :43:30.referred as potential victims of trafficking. That is a 47% increase
:43:31. > :43:37.from two years before. The real extent will be much higher than the
:43:38. > :43:42.statistics. That is why films like this are important, to raise
:43:43. > :43:47.awareness of a crime that raises profits that challenge the drug
:43:48. > :43:53.trade. A Bristol charity is running a competition based on real`life
:43:54. > :43:57.stories. The short film competition this year is looking particularly at
:43:58. > :44:01.forced labour cases in the UK and overseas where the products from
:44:02. > :44:06.those forced labour supply chains and up on UK high street. The
:44:07. > :44:11.government 's new Modern Slavery Bill aims to tackle the problem. The
:44:12. > :44:17.Home Office says it is the first of its kind in Europe. It would
:44:18. > :44:26.increase the maximum jail term from 14 years to life. It would also
:44:27. > :44:29.provide better support for victims, forcing their captors to pay out
:44:30. > :44:35.compensation and giving them protection from prosecution. I think
:44:36. > :44:40.businesses ought to care about whether there is slavery in their
:44:41. > :44:46.supply chain. If that gives them an additional burden, that is something
:44:47. > :44:51.they have a moral obligation to do. For charities, the bill cannot come
:44:52. > :44:55.soon enough. This centre in Bath helps child victims of slavery,
:44:56. > :45:02.offering therapy in the form of counselling or just play in a safe
:45:03. > :45:06.place. Currently, there is only 45 days provision to support victims.
:45:07. > :45:15.Ideally, we would like to see a longer`term look at how you can
:45:16. > :45:19.restore lives. Another victim, another film telling the story.
:45:20. > :45:29.Campaigners hope soon it will just be documenting history.
:45:30. > :45:31.We are joined by Andrew Wallace from a Bristol charity offering support
:45:32. > :45:42.for people who have survived slavery. There are five categories
:45:43. > :45:55.of modern slavery. Forced labour, forced criminality, children, and
:45:56. > :46:00.organ trafficking. As Sally said, year on year it went up 47%. In the
:46:01. > :46:06.first six months of this year the number of victims found have gone up
:46:07. > :46:08.40%. That is against a backdrop where most police officers don't
:46:09. > :46:19.understand what they are coming across. As the film said, last
:46:20. > :46:25.year, 1700 people accessed services the government provides as
:46:26. > :46:29.identified victims of slavery, but across the political spectrum,
:46:30. > :46:40.police forces, NGOs, they say that is the tip of the iceberg. We
:46:41. > :46:45.welcome the Modern Slavery Bill. But we need to go further. The Home
:46:46. > :46:49.Secretary said we want this to be a world`class bill and it isn't yet.
:46:50. > :46:55.There are things they need to happen. The three main areas are, we
:46:56. > :47:06.need to bring business into the space in terms of transparency in
:47:07. > :47:10.supply chains. You are particularly keen on pushing this and you spoke
:47:11. > :47:15.on the debate. Is it practical to expect a business to go right back
:47:16. > :47:22.to scratch and find out who has done what with components? Well,
:47:23. > :47:26.sometimes it can get complicated. If you look at the garment industry,
:47:27. > :47:31.trying to source the cotton and the buttons and zips and all the
:47:32. > :47:35.different components. But if you look at the report I cited in the
:47:36. > :47:40.debate about Thai seafood, there aren't so many elements in that
:47:41. > :47:45.chain. I just think if a supermarket is selling seafood, it ought to know
:47:46. > :47:49.about the people catching the seafood at the beginning of the
:47:50. > :48:09.process. Are you talking about big companies like Apple and Primark, or
:48:10. > :48:13.small high street stores? Well, even a small shop, if they have tinned
:48:14. > :48:21.goods, they are getting them from a bigger company down the line. The
:48:22. > :48:26.government is doing something. Enormous progress has been made in
:48:27. > :48:30.this Parliament. We have a contract with the salvation army to help
:48:31. > :48:38.people who have been the victims of trafficking and modern`day slavery.
:48:39. > :48:46.You don't sound terribly convinced that you are doing your utmost. This
:48:47. > :48:49.is the danger, whenever a government legislates to do something
:48:50. > :48:54.ground`breaking. Clearly, opposition parties and charities will say,
:48:55. > :48:58.please, can you go a bit further? I fully understand that, but letters
:48:59. > :49:03.at least recognise we are doing something. On the supply chain
:49:04. > :49:06.issue, it is difficult to legislate for that. We can legislate for what
:49:07. > :49:11.is going on in our own country. It is hard to legislate for what is
:49:12. > :49:18.going on in a global supply chain, to a cotton picker in Bangladesh,
:49:19. > :49:22.for instance. Some would say, slavery is illegal anyway. Why do we
:49:23. > :49:28.need a commissioner and hold apartment for this? They are
:49:29. > :49:36.criminals and there is criminal law existing at the moment. Yes, but the
:49:37. > :49:40.law grew up piecemeal and there has never been any training for
:49:41. > :49:45.front`line agencies to identify and understand it for what it is. It was
:49:46. > :49:48.originally understood as an immigration issue. But it is a
:49:49. > :49:54.criminal issue, with perpetrators and victims. So this bill is going
:49:55. > :50:00.to help prosecute better. With supply chains, we are in a bizarre
:50:01. > :50:05.position where big companies, the investment industry, Tesco,
:50:06. > :50:12.Sainsbury's, they have publicly said we want legislation because it will
:50:13. > :50:21.enable us to do the right thing. Yes, it has business support. We are
:50:22. > :50:26.still talking to companies about it. There is an analogy from product
:50:27. > :50:31.supplied from places of conflict. I would want all countries to say
:50:32. > :50:44.whether they come from the occupied territories of Palestine. Thank you
:50:45. > :50:48.for coming in. Now, it is rumoured Eric Pickles
:50:49. > :50:56.once gathered all his staff together and got them to chant the word
:50:57. > :51:00.localism over and over. What a fun place to work that must be. The
:51:01. > :51:05.story shows how committed he is to giving control to our councils, but
:51:06. > :51:10.after four years have they noticed a difference? We sent our reporter to
:51:11. > :51:18.the biggest gathering of councillors to find out.
:51:19. > :51:24.The British summer in full swing. Among the sun`worshippers taking it
:51:25. > :51:28.easy in Bournemouth, an unlikely gathering. These are councillors at
:51:29. > :51:37.play. They are not just here for the free ice cream. They were here for
:51:38. > :51:43.this. The biggest local government get together in the land. The
:51:44. > :51:51.keynote speaker had already said he wouldn't speak to us, so we brought
:51:52. > :51:56.along our own. The question for delegates, had communities Secretary
:51:57. > :52:00.Eric Pickles done enough for them? He has done a great deal for local
:52:01. > :52:05.government. He is not popular with many people, but I think he has done
:52:06. > :52:13.a great job. I do think any government is ever going to do
:52:14. > :52:17.enough. Yes, please, give us what we want, which is a bit more freedom
:52:18. > :52:23.and no interference from view in particular and the government in
:52:24. > :52:27.general. That interference relates to the various directives from his
:52:28. > :52:33.department. Whether it is telling councils to make their car parks
:52:34. > :52:35.free, insisting on weekly bin collections or scrapping parking
:52:36. > :52:53.enforcement cars he says are often used as cash cows. Then, the man
:52:54. > :52:58.himself arrived. Hello. I lacked `` a lot of the council leaders from
:52:59. > :53:03.the West are year. Have you done enough for these people here in
:53:04. > :53:09.giving them local powers? I've done a lot and I will do a lot more and I
:53:10. > :53:15.love them to bits. Will you give them powers to keep council tax in
:53:16. > :53:21.Bristol? I will give him pretty much everything he wants, subject to
:53:22. > :53:26.negotiation. Some say you should not be telling councils what to do when
:53:27. > :53:33.it comes to weekly bin collections or camera cars going down the city
:53:34. > :53:41.'s. I'm here to offer helpful suggestions. Do you think you've got
:53:42. > :53:47.the balance right? Yes, because I am a helpful guide. And off he went.
:53:48. > :53:55.But I was puzzled by the Mayor of Bristol's warm greeting given that
:53:56. > :54:09.he has said other things in the past. Some of the statement he makes
:54:10. > :54:13.about wanting to micromanage local government are not helpful or
:54:14. > :54:19.encouraging. But there are ministers absolutely up for transferring more
:54:20. > :54:21.control. Do you mean his comments on those CCTV cars you mean his
:54:22. > :54:26.comments on those CCTV cars using Bristol? Absolutely. I'm relaxed
:54:27. > :54:31.about the reduction of those cameras. I don't love them. Nobody
:54:32. > :54:35.loves them. But there is a principal bad ` we should make those decisions
:54:36. > :54:45.locally rather than having them imposed on us. At a hard day, we
:54:46. > :54:53.thought it was time to bring our Eric down to the beach. For some
:54:54. > :55:01.councillors at least here in Bournemouth, they think this man's
:55:02. > :55:08.promises have fallen a little flat. Eric Pickles is your boss, Stephen,
:55:09. > :55:17.isn't he? Well, here's my coalition colleague. Nick Clegg my boss. Tell
:55:18. > :55:25.us about your colleague. When he talks about localism, is it a sham?
:55:26. > :55:28.Well, localism is one of my responsibilities, actually. This
:55:29. > :55:32.government has given away more power to local areas than any previous
:55:33. > :55:35.government to enable people to shape their own communities. For example,
:55:36. > :55:45.neighbourhood plans. So why do local authorities feel there is less
:55:46. > :55:52.control? Well, the localism act gives power to local people. There
:55:53. > :55:59.are four neighbourhood plans in Bristol. But where is the money? The
:56:00. > :56:03.government has given hundreds of millions of pounds to local areas.
:56:04. > :56:09.This week, ministers around the country are announcing local growth
:56:10. > :56:16.deals. Would you allow local authorities to have more control if
:56:17. > :56:24.Labour get in? Stamp duty, more revenue raising powers? Well, Lord
:56:25. > :56:27.Adonis has just done a report about devolving powers, particularly to
:56:28. > :56:36.the city regions, economic powerhouses. As Stephen said, it is
:56:37. > :58:16.about local people, not just the people in the council. But is it
:58:17. > :58:19.as it wants to. But I want the Lib Dems to make the biggest and boldest
:58:20. > :58:23.offered to local government. We need to solve the issue of Scotland and
:58:24. > :58:28.Wales. English regions are not powerful enough and that is
:58:29. > :58:37.something we need to correct. Does he make you say localism? No, he
:58:38. > :58:44.doesn't, he makes you laugh. Now, a look at the week's events in 60
:58:45. > :58:48.seconds. The drumbeat of unhappy workers was
:58:49. > :58:53.once again to be heard on marches across the West. Schools, libraries
:58:54. > :58:58.and job centres were all affected by the strike. The dispute over pay
:58:59. > :59:02.between six public sector unions and the government rumbles on. The
:59:03. > :59:06.suspended Chief Constable of a bin and Somerset police is to be
:59:07. > :59:18.investigated over allegations he breached the data protection act.
:59:19. > :59:23.He denies any wrongdoing. This robotics lab in Bristol was a
:59:24. > :59:26.recipient of a ?200 million windfall for the West. The funding for local
:59:27. > :59:30.enterprise partnerships is also being spent on flood defences,
:59:31. > :59:37.building houses and training people to work in the nuclear industry.
:59:38. > :59:40.And it was George at the George. The Chancellor popped into a Somerset
:59:41. > :59:50.pub on Friday, raising a glass to firms who are hiring staff.
:59:51. > :59:53.That was the week. The parliamentary holidays begin very soon. Do you
:59:54. > :00:01.take too much time off, do you think? I live in Bristol so I will
:00:02. > :00:05.be spending most of August at my home in Saint Andrews in Bristol. I
:00:06. > :00:12.go to Devon over the bank holiday. That is it. And the election is
:00:13. > :00:18.coming up. It is lovely to be able to stay in one place for a few days
:00:19. > :00:21.at a time. I will make the most of being in the constituency. There is
:00:22. > :00:31.so much that goes on in Bristol jarring the summer. `` during the
:00:32. > :00:34.summer. That is it. I'm off to pack my sandals and sun cream but we will
:00:35. > :00:35.be back refreshed and well for the start of September.
:00:36. > :00:48.will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.
:00:49. > :00:51.So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including
:00:52. > :00:53.a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and
:00:54. > :01:14.Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make
:01:15. > :01:20.a difference? It will make a difference because we have
:01:21. > :01:26.established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and
:01:27. > :01:33.why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent
:01:34. > :01:36.and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed
:01:37. > :01:48.this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed
:01:49. > :01:54.through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international
:01:55. > :01:59.examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon
:02:00. > :02:05.passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of
:02:06. > :02:08.control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled
:02:09. > :02:17.down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for
:02:18. > :02:20.this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a
:02:21. > :02:24.principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,
:02:25. > :02:27.which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous
:02:28. > :02:32.relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a
:02:33. > :02:37.controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is
:02:38. > :02:40.on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church
:02:41. > :02:49.against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is
:02:50. > :02:54.stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who
:02:55. > :03:00.can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who
:03:01. > :03:03.can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is
:03:04. > :03:07.potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of
:03:08. > :03:11.Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of
:03:12. > :03:18.England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please
:03:19. > :03:23.withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court
:03:24. > :03:28.kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of
:03:29. > :03:34.three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that
:03:35. > :03:38.banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,
:03:39. > :03:47.but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to
:03:48. > :03:53.decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In
:03:54. > :04:01.record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson
:04:02. > :04:05.and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the
:04:06. > :04:13.establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great
:04:14. > :04:17.quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act
:04:18. > :04:24.and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to
:04:25. > :04:28.look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.
:04:29. > :04:32.There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about
:04:33. > :04:36.drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look
:04:37. > :04:42.something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is
:04:43. > :04:51.right or is the political establishment right? I think the
:04:52. > :04:57.establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We
:04:58. > :04:59.are in a unique position where all three political parties have
:05:00. > :05:04.relatively recent experience of government so they now that security
:05:05. > :05:11.threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation
:05:12. > :05:18.being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I
:05:19. > :05:24.do not see the political controversy. All three political
:05:25. > :05:31.parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always
:05:32. > :05:36.are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but
:05:37. > :05:42.a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political
:05:43. > :05:48.controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy
:05:49. > :05:55.about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,
:05:56. > :06:03.it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys
:06:04. > :06:08.setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have
:06:09. > :06:15.serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out
:06:16. > :06:21.in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have
:06:22. > :06:22.said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public
:06:23. > :06:26.school. For many English football fans,
:06:27. > :06:28.tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick
:06:29. > :06:31.between two traditional foes Well, if you're
:06:32. > :06:34.a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the
:06:35. > :06:37.nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced
:06:38. > :06:52.a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,
:06:53. > :06:57.it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing
:06:58. > :07:01.and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group
:07:02. > :07:08.with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.
:07:09. > :07:10.There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over
:07:11. > :07:13.authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it
:07:14. > :07:23.through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the
:07:24. > :07:26.worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The
:07:27. > :07:31.left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and
:07:32. > :07:36.authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives
:07:37. > :07:45.remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the
:07:46. > :07:51.semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking
:07:52. > :07:56.on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out
:07:57. > :08:02.Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that
:08:03. > :08:11.pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?
:08:12. > :08:13.We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser
:08:14. > :08:27.Should we read political significance in to the fact that the
:08:28. > :08:33.only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?
:08:34. > :08:38.Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a
:08:39. > :08:44.Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour
:08:45. > :08:48.government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina?
:08:49. > :08:54.Absolutely not. I do not think it has anything to do with politics. It
:08:55. > :09:02.is a bit of fun. People should choose it is Don Hoop plays the best
:09:03. > :09:07.football and the Germans have been fantastic. They were great in 2010
:09:08. > :09:12.as well. They started this model in 2008 and that is the sort of thing
:09:13. > :09:17.people should be supporting. Who should a Eurosceptic support? I
:09:18. > :09:21.would not say Argentina because that is the country that has tried to
:09:22. > :09:29.seize British sovereign territory within my lifetime. You were not
:09:30. > :09:34.around for the Blitz. Believe it or not, I was not. There is a strong
:09:35. > :09:46.political case to support Germany. They are probably going to win the
:09:47. > :09:50.World Cup with a clear of -- with players of Polish origin. That sort
:09:51. > :09:58.of cultural change they have forced themselves to go through... You talk
:09:59. > :10:03.about them being right wing, but in fact the way that the German league
:10:04. > :10:09.is structured, and I am an expert, is based on ownership. It is very
:10:10. > :10:17.different from the Premier League. It is about football as a usual
:10:18. > :10:26.good. The ticket prices are lower. The fans are involved in running the
:10:27. > :10:29.club. It is a model that all English football clubs should emulate.
:10:30. > :10:34.Germany had a strong football team under centre right governments and
:10:35. > :10:45.centre left governments and a coalition. A strong football team
:10:46. > :10:49.and a strong economy. The Conservative MP who is the arch
:10:50. > :10:52.Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of the European Union and was for a few
:10:53. > :10:59.weeks ago when people were making jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he
:11:00. > :11:04.was outraged and said you should not do that, so he could happily support
:11:05. > :11:09.Germany. What was interesting about the authoritarian and democratic
:11:10. > :11:21.regimes, what is great is that the World Cup is run by this open and
:11:22. > :11:27.democratic organisation Fifa. It is similar to the EU in many regards.
:11:28. > :11:36.Two countries led by women. Maybe gender is the thing. We did not win
:11:37. > :11:42.under Margaret Thatcher. There's one big difference with the EU, you
:11:43. > :11:49.cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go to a European summit. Did you know
:11:50. > :11:59.that Italy won two world cups under Mussolini? Can we draw any
:12:00. > :12:05.conclusions between a political system and the performance of the
:12:06. > :12:08.football team? You can draw certain parallels between maybe national
:12:09. > :12:16.cliches, so the Germans are efficient and effective, which might
:12:17. > :12:20.reflect and the English are very polite so we let everyone score
:12:21. > :12:24.first and go into the second round. We put ourselves at the back of the
:12:25. > :12:36.queue. Is England going to qualify for the European? We are going to
:12:37. > :12:39.win the European Championship. The first country Scotland have to play
:12:40. > :12:53.is Germany. What could possibly go wrong? Who is going to win? Germany.
:12:54. > :12:57.Germany. I am going to put a few bob on Argentina. Are you going to be
:12:58. > :13:04.watching? Absolutely. Thank you. This is the last Sunday Politics
:13:05. > :13:08.for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn
:13:09. > :13:11.and our first programme will be live from Scotland,
:13:12. > :13:17.the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow
:13:18. > :13:22.at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer
:13:23. > :13:25.on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:13:26. > :13:29.it's the Sunday Politics, unless