05/02/2017

:00:33. > :00:37.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38. > :00:40.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

:00:41. > :00:43.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

:00:44. > :00:46.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

:00:47. > :00:56.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

:00:57. > :01:00.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

:01:01. > :01:03.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

:01:04. > :01:07.is making good on his campaign promises.

:01:08. > :01:09.As the Government gets into gear for two years

:01:10. > :01:12.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

:01:13. > :01:15.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

:01:16. > :01:24.and the costs and savings once we've left.

:01:25. > :01:37.So, is that the end of the line for councils running businesses?

:01:38. > :01:40.And with me, as always, a trio of top political

:01:41. > :01:42.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

:01:43. > :01:46.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

:01:47. > :01:53.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

:01:54. > :01:55.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

:01:56. > :02:01.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

:02:02. > :02:04.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

:02:05. > :02:09.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

:02:10. > :02:12.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

:02:13. > :02:17.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

:02:18. > :02:19.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

:02:20. > :02:21.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

:02:22. > :02:24.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

:02:25. > :02:28.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

:02:29. > :02:32.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

:02:33. > :02:37.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

:02:38. > :02:42.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

:02:43. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

:02:45. > :02:48.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

:02:49. > :02:56.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

:02:57. > :03:01.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

:03:02. > :03:07.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

:03:08. > :03:14.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

:03:15. > :03:18.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

:03:19. > :03:22.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

:03:23. > :03:27.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

:03:28. > :03:31.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

:03:32. > :03:35.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

:03:36. > :03:40.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

:03:41. > :03:44.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

:03:45. > :03:51.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

:03:52. > :03:55.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

:03:56. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

:04:00. > :04:04.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

:04:05. > :04:09.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

:04:10. > :04:15.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

:04:16. > :04:20.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

:04:21. > :04:25.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

:04:26. > :04:28.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

:04:29. > :04:36.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

:04:37. > :04:40.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

:04:41. > :04:44.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

:04:45. > :04:46.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

:04:47. > :04:50.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

:04:51. > :04:54.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

:04:55. > :04:58.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

:04:59. > :05:05.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

:05:06. > :05:08.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

:05:09. > :05:13.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

:05:14. > :05:18.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

:05:19. > :05:23.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

:05:24. > :05:26.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

:05:27. > :05:31.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

:05:32. > :05:34.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

:05:35. > :05:43.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

:05:44. > :05:45.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

:05:46. > :05:48.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

:05:49. > :05:53.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

:05:54. > :05:58.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

:05:59. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

:06:09. > :06:13.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

:06:14. > :06:16.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

:06:17. > :06:20.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

:06:21. > :06:25.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

:06:26. > :06:29.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

:06:30. > :06:33.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

:06:34. > :06:36.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

:06:37. > :06:39.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

:06:40. > :06:42.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

:06:43. > :06:43.are published in the Government's new white paper.

:06:44. > :06:46.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

:06:47. > :06:48.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

:06:49. > :06:53.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

:06:54. > :06:55.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

:06:56. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

:07:04. > :07:06.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

:07:07. > :07:08.So, is that what's going to happen now?

:07:09. > :07:11.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

:07:12. > :07:14.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

:07:15. > :07:18.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

:07:19. > :07:25.According to the most recent Treasury figures,

:07:26. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

:07:28. > :07:30.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

:07:31. > :07:35.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

:07:36. > :07:38.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

:07:39. > :07:40.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

:07:41. > :07:43.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

:07:44. > :07:47.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

:07:48. > :07:52.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

:07:53. > :07:56.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

:07:57. > :07:59.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

:08:00. > :08:04.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

:08:05. > :08:10.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

:08:11. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue

:08:13. > :08:18.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

:08:19. > :08:21.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

:08:22. > :08:26.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

:08:27. > :08:28.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

:08:29. > :08:37.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

:08:38. > :08:38.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

:08:39. > :08:46.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

:08:47. > :08:51.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

:08:52. > :08:53.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

:08:54. > :08:55.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

:08:56. > :09:00.They include things like this building, the European Commission

:09:01. > :09:08.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

:09:09. > :09:11.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

:09:12. > :09:13.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

:09:14. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

:09:17. > :09:21.because actually they can hold us to ransom.

:09:22. > :09:24.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

:09:25. > :09:27.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

:09:28. > :09:30.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

:09:31. > :09:32.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

:09:33. > :09:37.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

:09:38. > :09:43.contributions to the European Union every year will end.

:09:44. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

:09:48. > :09:53.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

:09:54. > :09:55.The Europol for example, that's the European crime

:09:56. > :10:00.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

:10:01. > :10:03.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

:10:04. > :10:05.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

:10:06. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

:10:15. > :10:24.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

:10:25. > :10:25.trade, universities and, say, climate change,

:10:26. > :10:28.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

:10:29. > :10:30.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

:10:31. > :10:32.I wonder if they're going to let me in!

:10:33. > :10:36.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

:10:37. > :10:38.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

:10:39. > :10:43.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

:10:44. > :10:46.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

:10:47. > :10:51.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

:10:52. > :10:53.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

:10:54. > :10:56.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

:10:57. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

:11:02. > :11:07.contribution for some preferential access to its market?

:11:08. > :11:10.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

:11:11. > :11:12.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

:11:13. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

:11:21. > :11:23.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

:11:24. > :11:26.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

:11:27. > :11:28.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

:11:29. > :11:31.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

:11:32. > :11:33.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

:11:34. > :11:40.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

:11:41. > :11:42.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

:11:43. > :11:51.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

:11:52. > :12:09.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

:12:10. > :12:11.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

:12:12. > :12:14.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

:12:15. > :12:16.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

:12:17. > :12:24.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

:12:25. > :12:28.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

:12:29. > :12:31.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

:12:32. > :12:37.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

:12:38. > :12:41.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

:12:42. > :12:46.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

:12:47. > :12:49.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

:12:50. > :12:52.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

:12:53. > :12:56.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

:12:57. > :13:01.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

:13:02. > :13:06.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

:13:07. > :13:11.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

:13:12. > :13:15.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

:13:16. > :13:20.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

:13:21. > :13:22.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

:13:23. > :13:26.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

:13:27. > :13:30.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

:13:31. > :13:33.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

:13:34. > :13:39.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

:13:40. > :13:43.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

:13:44. > :13:48.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

:13:49. > :13:54.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

:13:55. > :13:58.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

:13:59. > :14:01.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

:14:02. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

:14:05. > :14:10.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

:14:11. > :14:15.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

:14:16. > :14:19.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

:14:20. > :14:24.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

:14:25. > :14:29.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

:14:30. > :14:33.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

:14:34. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

:14:39. > :14:45.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

:14:46. > :14:50.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

:14:51. > :14:53.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

:14:54. > :14:56.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

:14:57. > :15:00.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

:15:01. > :15:05.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

:15:06. > :15:08.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

:15:09. > :15:13.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

:15:14. > :15:18.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

:15:19. > :15:21.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

:15:22. > :15:26.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

:15:27. > :15:29.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

:15:30. > :15:35.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

:15:36. > :15:41.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

:15:42. > :15:47.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

:15:48. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

:15:51. > :15:53.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

:15:54. > :15:58.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

:15:59. > :16:02.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

:16:03. > :16:08.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

:16:09. > :16:13.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

:16:14. > :16:17.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

:16:18. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

:16:22. > :16:26.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

:16:27. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

:16:34. > :16:36.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

:16:37. > :16:41.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

:16:42. > :16:48.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

:16:49. > :16:52.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

:16:53. > :16:56.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

:16:57. > :17:02.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

:17:03. > :17:05.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

:17:06. > :17:10.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

:17:11. > :17:16.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

:17:17. > :17:23.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

:17:24. > :17:29.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

:17:30. > :17:33.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

:17:34. > :17:38.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

:17:39. > :17:42.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

:17:43. > :17:49.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

:17:50. > :17:54.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

:17:55. > :17:58.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

:17:59. > :18:04.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

:18:05. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

:18:11. > :18:15.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

:18:16. > :18:20.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

:18:21. > :18:25.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

:18:26. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

:18:30. > :18:32.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

:18:33. > :18:36.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

:18:37. > :18:39.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

:18:40. > :18:42.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

:18:43. > :18:47.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

:18:48. > :18:51.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

:18:52. > :18:57.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

:18:58. > :19:04.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

:19:05. > :19:09.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

:19:10. > :19:14.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

:19:15. > :19:17.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

:19:18. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

:19:24. > :19:28.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

:19:29. > :19:31.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

:19:32. > :19:36.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

:19:37. > :19:39.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

:19:40. > :19:43.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

:19:44. > :19:47.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

:19:48. > :19:50.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

:19:51. > :19:57.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

:19:58. > :20:01.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

:20:02. > :20:03.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

:20:04. > :20:21.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:22. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

:20:24. > :20:26.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

:20:27. > :20:29.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:30. > :20:32.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

:20:33. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

:20:36. > :20:39.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

:20:40. > :20:44.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

:20:45. > :20:48.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

:20:49. > :20:53.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

:20:54. > :20:57.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

:20:58. > :21:02.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

:21:03. > :21:04.will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:05. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

:21:07. > :21:08.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

:21:09. > :21:10.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

:21:11. > :21:13.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

:21:14. > :21:19.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

:21:20. > :21:21.criticising what he says was a terrible decision

:21:22. > :21:23.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

:21:24. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:32. > :21:42.the ban until it hears the case in full.

:21:43. > :21:47.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

:21:48. > :21:50.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:51. > :21:52.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:53. > :22:05.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

:22:06. > :22:11.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

:22:12. > :22:17.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

:22:18. > :22:26.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:27. > :22:30.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

:22:31. > :22:34.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

:22:35. > :22:41.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

:22:42. > :22:48.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

:22:49. > :22:56.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:57. > :23:01.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

:23:02. > :23:07.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

:23:08. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:11. > :23:16.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:17. > :23:24.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:25. > :23:28.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:29. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:33. > :23:36.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:37. > :23:42.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:43. > :23:49.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:50. > :23:52.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:53. > :23:57.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:58. > :24:02.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:24:03. > :24:08.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:09. > :24:15.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:16. > :24:19.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:20. > :24:27.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:28. > :24:33.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:34. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:39. > :24:42.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:43. > :24:47.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:48. > :24:51.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:52. > :24:55.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:56. > :24:59.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:25:00. > :25:03.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:04. > :25:08.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:09. > :25:19.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:20. > :25:25.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:26. > :25:30.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:31. > :25:36.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:37. > :25:42.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:43. > :25:48.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:49. > :26:00.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:26:01. > :26:04.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:05. > :26:07.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:08. > :26:15.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:16. > :26:20.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:21. > :26:26.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:27. > :26:30.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:31. > :26:34.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:35. > :26:38.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:39. > :26:43.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:44. > :26:47.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:48. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:52. > :26:55.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:56. > :27:00.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:27:01. > :27:04.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:05. > :27:09.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:10. > :27:15.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:16. > :27:22.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:23. > :27:26.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:27. > :27:31.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:32. > :27:36.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:37. > :27:39.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:40. > :27:45.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:46. > :27:51.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:52. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:56. > :27:58.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:27:59. > :28:04.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:28:05. > :28:06.interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:07. > :28:09.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:10. > :28:14.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:15. > :28:21.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:22. > :28:25.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:26. > :28:30.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:31. > :28:34.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:35. > :28:41.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:42. > :28:45.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:46. > :28:51.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:52. > :28:56.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:57. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:29:03. > :29:06.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:07. > :29:11.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:12. > :29:16.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:17. > :29:24.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:25. > :29:31.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:32. > :29:32.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:33. > :29:35.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:36. > :29:38.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:39. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:42. > :29:44.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:45. > :29:47.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:48. > :29:49.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:50. > :29:52.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:53. > :29:57.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:58. > :30:00.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:30:01. > :30:05.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:06. > :30:07.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:08. > :30:10.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:11. > :30:13.relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:14. > :30:14.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:15. > :30:17.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:18. > :30:23.planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:24. > :30:27.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:28. > :30:29.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:30. > :30:31.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:32. > :30:40.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:41. > :30:43.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:44. > :30:45.for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:46. > :30:52.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:53. > :31:01.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:31:02. > :31:05.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:06. > :31:09.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:10. > :31:13.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:14. > :31:18.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:19. > :31:21.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:22. > :31:26.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:27. > :31:29.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:30. > :31:33.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:34. > :31:38.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:39. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:43. > :31:47.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:48. > :31:51.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:52. > :31:56.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:57. > :32:00.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:32:01. > :32:03.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:04. > :32:08.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:09. > :32:12.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:13. > :32:18.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:19. > :32:21.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:22. > :32:25.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:26. > :32:28.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:29. > :32:34.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:35. > :32:41.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:42. > :32:44.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:45. > :32:49.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:50. > :32:51.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:52. > :32:55.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:56. > :32:59.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:33:00. > :33:02.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:03. > :33:07.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:08. > :33:17.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:18. > :33:20.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:21. > :33:23.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:24. > :33:26.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:27. > :33:28.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:29. > :33:36.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:37. > :33:42.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:43. > :33:45.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:46. > :33:50.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:51. > :33:53.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:54. > :33:57.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:58. > :34:01.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:34:02. > :34:04.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:05. > :34:08.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:09. > :34:17.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:18. > :34:20.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:21. > :34:24.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:25. > :34:27.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:28. > :34:31.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:32. > :34:35.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:36. > :34:41.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:42. > :34:47.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:48. > :34:50.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:51. > :34:55.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:56. > :34:59.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:35:00. > :35:06.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:07. > :35:10.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:11. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:16. > :35:20.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:21. > :35:24.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:25. > :35:29.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:30. > :35:33.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:34. > :35:37.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:38. > :35:42.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:43. > :35:46.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:47. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:52. > :35:56.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:57. > :36:03.return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:36:04. > :36:06.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:07. > :36:14.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:15. > :36:16.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:17. > :36:24.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:25. > :36:30.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:31. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:35. > :36:39.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:40. > :36:44.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:45. > :36:46.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:47. > :36:53.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:54. > :36:57.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:58. > :37:02.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:37:03. > :37:07.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:08. > :37:11.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:12. > :37:16.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:17. > :37:19.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:20. > :37:24.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:25. > :37:31.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:32. > :37:35.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:36. > :37:39.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:40. > :37:44.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:45. > :37:50.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:51. > :37:53.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:54. > :37:58.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:59. > :38:00.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:38:01. > :38:07.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:08. > :38:12.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:13. > :38:16.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:17. > :38:19.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:20. > :38:23.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:24. > :38:25.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:26. > :38:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:28. > :38:42.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:43. > :38:44.Welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the West.

:38:45. > :38:49.Some Europeans tell us they're packing up and leaving the West

:38:50. > :38:54.We've granted our guests today full citizenship

:38:55. > :38:58.Well, for the next 23 minutes at any rate.

:38:59. > :39:00.They are Justin Tomlinson, Conservative MP for North Swindon

:39:01. > :39:08.We'll hear from them in just a moment or two.

:39:09. > :39:11.This week it was all change for the West's last

:39:12. > :39:16.Thamesdown transport in Swindon wasn't turning a profit

:39:17. > :39:22.It's part of a long history of councils privatising their services.

:39:23. > :39:27.So, should it be the end of the line for councils running companies?

:39:28. > :39:34.The bus company that's been just the ticket

:39:35. > :39:37.They don't make buses like this any more.

:39:38. > :39:41.It's a vintage Daimler double-decker proudly bearing the name

:39:42. > :39:43.of Thamesdown Transport from the 1970s, an era when almost

:39:44. > :39:49.all of our local buses were run by local government.

:39:50. > :39:52.Most, like the famous Bristol Omnibus, disappeared decades ago.

:39:53. > :39:59.Thamesdown was the last council owned bus company in the West,

:40:00. > :40:19.They've now got a lot of national operators running bus services.

:40:20. > :40:21.They've got a lot of financial muscle that a small,

:40:22. > :40:22.municipal bus company can't compete with.

:40:23. > :40:26.So, really, in the current climate we don't have any choice.

:40:27. > :40:29.But I do see this as a really good development for bus users and also

:40:30. > :40:32.it's a good deal for the taxpayers of Swindon as well in

:40:33. > :40:35.that they will no longer have to subsidise the bus service.

:40:36. > :40:37.Thamesdown Transport is being sold to one

:40:38. > :40:40.of the big bus companies, Go Ahead, who are promising

:40:41. > :40:41.brand-new vehicles and new technology, like paying

:40:42. > :40:43.for your ticket with your mobile phone.

:40:44. > :40:45.Ideas that would have been unheard-of when this bus

:40:46. > :40:47.was rumbling through the streets of Swindon.

:40:48. > :40:54.I have no access to private transport at all and for the council

:40:55. > :40:58.just to decide to sell it off is ridiculous.

:40:59. > :41:03.I'd sooner have the council run it because you never know

:41:04. > :41:07.They can cut the services, can't they?

:41:08. > :41:09.So, that's what I'm a bit worried about.

:41:10. > :41:13.We just don't have a choice about it.

:41:14. > :41:16.As long as the services run regularly for people getting

:41:17. > :41:19.into work and things I think it will be fine.

:41:20. > :41:21.Thamesdown has lost money over the last five years, but for some

:41:22. > :41:28.There's no reason why a council cannot run a publicly owned

:41:29. > :41:30.bus service at a profit if they do it correctly.

:41:31. > :41:36.What's happened here is I think we've not been very financially

:41:37. > :41:38.prudent under the borough council Tories with this company and that's

:41:39. > :41:43.But are council businesses really better run?

:41:44. > :41:48.Bristol Energy launched to much fanfare last year.

:41:49. > :41:50.An energy company owned by Bristol City Council and it's kind

:41:51. > :41:55.It's already needed millions more to keep going.

:41:56. > :41:59.Meanwhile, Bristol waste, another council owned company says

:42:00. > :42:01.it has managed to turn a profit and can use the funds

:42:02. > :42:06.So, as the public sector pulls out of Swindon 's buses,

:42:07. > :42:10.should we be worried or jumping for joy?

:42:11. > :42:14.Justin, you're a Swindon MP, wasn't that rather nice

:42:15. > :42:20.to have a bus service run by the people?

:42:21. > :42:25.Actually, I'm a fan of Thamesdown transport.

:42:26. > :42:28.The bus stops right in front of my house and I use it often

:42:29. > :42:33.But the reality is, over the last few years,

:42:34. > :42:37.it lost somewhere in the region of ?1.5 million and they were having

:42:38. > :42:39.to reduce and cut services right across my constituency and this

:42:40. > :42:41.was causing untold misery, particularly in the rural parts

:42:42. > :42:45.of my constituency for elderly people who rely on this service.

:42:46. > :42:48.And the challenge is they just did not have the financial power

:42:49. > :42:50.to invest in the most modern technology, modern

:42:51. > :42:55.Just reading the Swindon advertiser who know about these things,

:42:56. > :42:58.I think the bus company was on track to you lose about

:42:59. > :43:11.The council pays the chief executive of hundred and 62,000.

:43:12. > :43:16.So, for one wage, the cost of one wage, they had their own public

:43:17. > :43:23.Yes, Swindon Advertiser, great newspaper but the key is it

:43:24. > :43:25.has been about ?1.5 million in the last few years.

:43:26. > :43:27.The reason they've reduced the loss for this year

:43:28. > :43:33.Well, it's ?1.5 million over the last four years and this has

:43:34. > :43:35.brought in an opportunity to get investment to improve services.

:43:36. > :43:37.Marketing, better vehicles, newer vehicles with the technology.

:43:38. > :43:40.We can then get the numbers up that generates the income.

:43:41. > :43:44.As someone who uses the service, I see this as a real opportunity.

:43:45. > :43:49.Presumably he knows what he's talking about about

:43:50. > :43:53.Well, the important thing that we saw from the film is that

:43:54. > :43:56.a lot of people are dependent on buses and 20% of people have

:43:57. > :43:58.turned down jobs because they don't have an adequate bus service.

:43:59. > :44:02.The statistic in terms of money that I'd like to throw in here is that

:44:03. > :44:05.40% of bus service revenue actually comes in terms of public money.

:44:06. > :44:07.So we need to have very strong regulation of buses

:44:08. > :44:11.At the same time, ?300 million a year is taken out by shareholders

:44:12. > :44:16.So, if it's a public service people shouldn't be profiting from it.

:44:17. > :44:23.The truth is, in Swindon now they're talking about new buses,

:44:24. > :44:25.enhancing roots and better service so do you accept the principle that

:44:26. > :44:32.private companies can be as good as, if not better, than the council's?

:44:33. > :44:35.I'm not particularly ideological about who owns the buses,

:44:36. > :44:37.what I'm concerned about is that if public money is invested

:44:38. > :44:40.in the service, as it will always be, then there's proper regulation

:44:41. > :44:47.and strong control to avoid profiteering.

:44:48. > :44:49.I think there's probably not 1 million miles difference between us.

:44:50. > :44:54.The council still has a role, particularly supporting

:44:55. > :44:57.the non-commercially viable routes, but now the council can focus

:44:58. > :44:59.the money on that area rather than the overall operational losses

:45:00. > :45:01.which have been incurred because the company didn't

:45:02. > :45:03.have the expertise, didn't have the economies of scale.

:45:04. > :45:07.You look to London where the mayor has got control over transport -

:45:08. > :45:10.buses and tubes, so at least the public can vote and choose

:45:11. > :45:13.what they want in terms of fares and services and so on.

:45:14. > :45:17.Now, it's completely out of the control of people in Swindon.

:45:18. > :45:20.You're comparing apples and pears because in London, high-density,

:45:21. > :45:24.public transport is the best form of transport, pretty much,

:45:25. > :45:26.because they've got the numbers so they can offer

:45:27. > :45:32.It is a real challenge in our towns up and down the country's country

:45:33. > :45:35.because a lot of the services, even with the best companies,

:45:36. > :45:38.will operate at a loss because there aren't the numbers.

:45:39. > :45:43.The best chance we've got here is investing

:45:44. > :45:46.in those new vehicles, the technology to get the numbers up

:45:47. > :45:48.which helps the environment and I'm a greenie too.

:45:49. > :45:53.But it also makes it financially sustainable and if you don't

:45:54. > :45:59.If you don't invest properly in buses, if you cut services,

:46:00. > :46:02.if you always invest money in roads rather than in public transport then

:46:03. > :46:04.you see people starting to depend more on the car.

:46:05. > :46:06.People without cars are disadvantaged and you see far

:46:07. > :46:11.We need to commit to public transport and invest in it properly.

:46:12. > :46:15.Can you understand people not wanting to get on rickety old buses

:46:16. > :46:22.Because it's now a sort of marginal service for people who don't

:46:23. > :46:25.have an alternative whereas in a lot of continentals cities

:46:26. > :46:28.Politicians should be deciding that public transport should always

:46:29. > :46:34.It depends on whether you'll get the best service,

:46:35. > :46:37.but if there is a lot of public money invested then you need to have

:46:38. > :46:41.It's interesting how they are going to make the money

:46:42. > :46:47.Presumably that will mean lower wages, fewer benefits for staff?

:46:48. > :46:51.power to invest in the vehicles which were then be more efficient.

:46:52. > :46:53.Remember, the lion's share is the travel costs,

:46:54. > :46:55.the fuel costs as they drive around all day long.

:46:56. > :46:58.So having the most efficient modern buses allows their running costs

:46:59. > :47:00.to be lower which helps on the operational cost.

:47:01. > :47:05.In theory, would you like to see the council run

:47:06. > :47:09.Where there are people with greater expertise than the council

:47:10. > :47:11.they should always be the first choice.

:47:12. > :47:14.I think very often councils can run services better because they can

:47:15. > :47:17.make sure there isn't money taken out to feed profits and shareholders

:47:18. > :47:19.and that's always my concern when there's

:47:20. > :47:24.The government's Brexit White Paper was published this week.

:47:25. > :47:28.But it shed little light on one of the key questions

:47:29. > :47:35.What will happen to Europeans already living here?

:47:36. > :47:39.Martin Jones has been speaking to people finding different ways

:47:40. > :47:49.So, it is discriminatory because if I had been non-EU...

:47:50. > :47:51.Evelyn is applying to become British.

:47:52. > :47:54.She is among a growing number of EU citizens doing the same.

:47:55. > :47:59.She's been here 30 years but she's worried the future.

:48:00. > :48:01.Now I feel the need to protect myself because

:48:02. > :48:09.I do not have a British passport, I only have a French one.

:48:10. > :48:12.After we've come out of the EU, I need to feel protected.

:48:13. > :48:16.But the process isn't for the faint-hearted.

:48:17. > :48:25.The first stage alone in false and 85 page form and a huge

:48:26. > :48:34.It took me a few weeks really to gather everything up

:48:35. > :48:37.and because I was extremely worried about filling it the wrong way,

:48:38. > :48:40.I went down the immigration lawyer route which not everybody will be

:48:41. > :48:45.We're talking about ?500 I've spent so far but that may

:48:46. > :48:50.There's a baffling range of questions.

:48:51. > :48:51.Have you ever indulged in terrorist activity?

:48:52. > :48:54.And do you ever take part in genocide?

:48:55. > :48:58.Something to do on a rainy afternoon, perhaps?

:48:59. > :49:03.Even so, Evelyn is optimistic having been in Bristol so long.

:49:04. > :49:09.But what about people who aren't here already.

:49:10. > :49:12.The Romanian Consul says he's seen dozens of families rushing to get

:49:13. > :49:19.The lack of certainty is exacerbating the state of unease.

:49:20. > :49:22.Many of them choose to bring their families quickly over to beat

:49:23. > :49:32.the imaginary deadline, to beat the triggering

:49:33. > :49:37.The government has repeatedly said it had hoped to do a deal with other

:49:38. > :49:39.EU countries by now, but negotiations are taking

:49:40. > :49:42.We would appreciate immensely if the government will give clear

:49:43. > :49:45.guidance on what the next steps are and what will be the rules

:49:46. > :49:56.British citizens living in the EU are also unsure what will happen.

:49:57. > :49:59.Madrid is now home to Bristolian Fiona Haughton who lives

:50:00. > :50:05.She can't become Spanish so she applied for an Irish passport.

:50:06. > :50:09.I have never considered myself an Irish citizen before.

:50:10. > :50:13.My mum is actually Northern Irish so I don't think she'd ever

:50:14. > :50:19.considered herself an Irish citizen before that she's now got

:50:20. > :50:28.I've got EU residency for as I want it, I can stay in Spain,

:50:29. > :50:31.I can move somewhere else, I've got freedom of travel.

:50:32. > :50:37.But for some the uncertainty has been the final straw.

:50:38. > :50:42.Wojtek is selling his home in Bridgwater.

:50:43. > :50:45.He's been a lorry driver here for the last ten years

:50:46. > :50:47.and he loves this country, even the thing that

:50:48. > :50:56.If you've got a couple of sunny days, you're so happy you've got

:50:57. > :51:00.them you appreciate sunny days so much.

:51:01. > :51:02.He thought about returning to Poland before but Brexit convinced him.

:51:03. > :51:08.After the referendum half of the people are not entirely happy

:51:09. > :51:11.with you here so it doesn't matter what you do.

:51:12. > :51:14.If you're picking up kids in the morning or leaving them

:51:15. > :51:18.at school or going to the pub, whatever, you've still

:51:19. > :51:23.Half of the people are not entirely happy with you.

:51:24. > :51:25.He and many like him feel the government is playing

:51:26. > :51:28.with their future so he and his family will now build

:51:29. > :51:35.And, of course, we wish you well Wojtek.

:51:36. > :51:39.Molly, why would the rest of the EU guarantees that our citizens can

:51:40. > :51:58.I think that's a really good question.

:51:59. > :52:00.Is incredibly sad to see someone like Wojtek there really

:52:01. > :52:02.saying that he now feels unwelcome and he's wondering

:52:03. > :52:05.who in the playground doesn't want him and his

:52:06. > :52:08.That's a really sad outcome from the whole Brexit

:52:09. > :52:11.To answer your question, I think this is a real opportunity

:52:12. > :52:13.that has been missed because of we had gone

:52:14. > :52:16.in at the beginning and said, OK, we've decided to leave

:52:17. > :52:18.but will protect all EU citizens who are already

:52:19. > :52:21.here and all their rights then the European countries would

:52:22. > :52:24.And all this heartache could have been avoided.

:52:25. > :52:26.All the statements from government have said we're just waiting

:52:27. > :52:30.So, it's them playing hardball, not the government.

:52:31. > :52:35.We've said we are going to change the conditions so we should have

:52:36. > :52:38.made a firm offer at the beginning to protect all EU citizens

:52:39. > :52:40.here and then the same offer would have come back,

:52:41. > :52:47.It was clear from that side and to reason made's statement

:52:48. > :52:49.that those people were going to be disappointment bargaining chips

:52:50. > :52:54.But, actually, I'm not sure about the exact words

:52:55. > :52:56.but they are bargaining chips at the moment, aren't they?

:52:57. > :52:59.The Prime Minister has made it clear this is the absolute priority.

:53:00. > :53:02.We are expecting this to be resolved as quickly as possible.

:53:03. > :53:05.Why not make a big generous offer now.

:53:06. > :53:08.Just say, of course, we're not going to send people home.

:53:09. > :53:11.The Prime Minister couldn't have been more public in her intentions

:53:12. > :53:17.on this and we just need the reciprocal deals to come back.

:53:18. > :53:19.It's the question now of crossing the Ts.

:53:20. > :53:21.We wish it could have been done sooner.

:53:22. > :53:24.It's the absolute priority set out clearly in the White Paper and it's

:53:25. > :53:27.an important thing is part of the negotiations going forward.

:53:28. > :53:29.We were told, won't we, that all these negotiations

:53:30. > :53:32.The first step, actually, just guaranteeing Brits in Spain

:53:33. > :53:39.The EU is going to be playing hardball.

:53:40. > :53:42.There are going to be ups and downs and we'll play hardball as well.

:53:43. > :53:44.I'm grateful that, in the Prime Minister,

:53:45. > :53:47.we've got someone who is very strong when it comes to negotiations.

:53:48. > :53:48.Would you play hardball on this issue?

:53:49. > :53:51.We don't need to because there is consensus from the government

:53:52. > :53:55.It's just a question of organising the paperwork and rules to make

:53:56. > :54:03.Even the people in our film thought it was contentious.

:54:04. > :54:05.Well, they shouldn't do because there is a well

:54:06. > :54:08.from our government and our European neighbours and friends to have this

:54:09. > :54:13.We wish it had been done by now and, on this one, it hasn't yet,

:54:14. > :54:15.but remember that the overall negotiations will take

:54:16. > :54:21.I think all this chat about hardball and tough negotiations and upping

:54:22. > :54:23.the anti is unhelpful and it is economically

:54:24. > :54:29.In Bournemouth is a big drop-off in people applying to language

:54:30. > :54:32.school and we are seeing the same with foreign students coming

:54:33. > :54:41.There's a sense of people not being welcome and that's really

:54:42. > :54:42.economically damaging because some of our most

:54:43. > :54:45.important service exports are in the field of education.

:54:46. > :54:47.On the other hand, people voted to leave and immigration

:54:48. > :54:49.was undoubtedly a big issue in that decision.

:54:50. > :54:52.A lot of people feel there are too many immigrants here.

:54:53. > :54:54.OK, so the question of immigration is very confused and complicated.

:54:55. > :54:57.We're not talking about immigration as such here, we talking

:54:58. > :55:01.It's a reciprocal right so European people can come here and we can go

:55:02. > :55:04.to their countries so it benefited both of us and that's

:55:05. > :55:07.British people, especially British young people,

:55:08. > :55:10.can still travel and study and work abroad.

:55:11. > :55:12.This is the government White Paper which I've been studying.

:55:13. > :55:17.According to the government, there are about a million Poles

:55:18. > :55:21.here but when you look over the page to seep how many Brits

:55:22. > :55:26.there are in Poland is probably a couple of hundred or a thousand

:55:27. > :55:31.or so so why would you want to guarantee their rights, but...?

:55:32. > :55:33.It's not a direct transfer like that.

:55:34. > :55:35.British people often retired to Spain and France are not

:55:36. > :55:38.necessarily go to Poland whereas Polish bricklayers

:55:39. > :55:42.The important point is that these discussions are already happening

:55:43. > :55:45.at the European level because there are problems caused

:55:46. > :55:47.in Poland if all their young, skilled people come here.

:55:48. > :55:49.In the case of Lithuania, out of 4 million people,

:55:50. > :55:52.1 million are actually living abroad and that's all the

:55:53. > :55:56.Actually, the Greens and Peasant party won the election in Lithuania

:55:57. > :56:00.issue recently on the point about trying to bring

:56:01. > :56:03.Yes, free movement will be restricted when we leave, isn't it,

:56:04. > :56:07.Yes, well, if we are outside the single market it will.

:56:08. > :56:10.But I still think it will be very economically damaging

:56:11. > :56:15.Are people prepared to trade off the loss of their jobs,

:56:16. > :56:17.their income and higher prices against restricting immigration

:56:18. > :56:20.and the survey shows they're not prepared to lose anything

:56:21. > :56:28.financially in order to restrict immigration.

:56:29. > :56:31.That's the doomsday scenario that lost the referendum last year.

:56:32. > :56:33.The reality is that since the referendum are economy

:56:34. > :56:36.is the strongest going of any of the major developed economies.

:56:37. > :56:39.The Bank of England yet again revised up growth figures.

:56:40. > :56:41.We have record employment in every single region of the country,

:56:42. > :56:44.we have a clear sign we are open for trade.

:56:45. > :56:48.Two thirds of our expats live in other countries outside the EU

:56:49. > :56:52.But rightly we've got to make sure arrangements are reciprocal

:56:53. > :56:54.and it's something we'll get done as possible.

:56:55. > :56:57.All the predictions of economic catastrophe so far at least

:56:58. > :57:04.I think it's fair to say nothing has actually changed

:57:05. > :57:07.because we are still members of the EE you.

:57:08. > :57:12.The main change that's happened so far is there's been a fall

:57:13. > :57:14.in the pound and farms today were saying that's very difficult

:57:15. > :57:17.because they also produce goods and import ingredients and those

:57:18. > :57:19.are much more expensive so there are already economic effects.

:57:20. > :57:27.I expect we'll return to this topic again, don't you?

:57:28. > :57:32.Let's whiz through the political news in the West in 60 seconds.

:57:33. > :57:37.This was the week some say turkeys voted for Christmas.

:57:38. > :57:40.Well, six out of our nine councils in Dorset voted to abolish

:57:41. > :57:52.The Secretary of State will now decide.

:57:53. > :57:54.Gloucestershire Council published the cod contract for a controversial

:57:55. > :57:58.It's thought it had hidden sensitive details but basic computer skills

:57:59. > :58:06.Two of Bristol's Labour MPs defied Jeremy Corbyn's

:58:07. > :58:24.They voted against triggering Article 50 saying it was

:58:25. > :58:28.And crowds gathered in Cheltenham, Swindon and Bristol to protest

:58:29. > :58:33.And more people in Bristol West signed a petition against a Trump

:58:34. > :58:36.state visit than in any other in constituency.

:58:37. > :58:41.Molly, I guess probably you're not a fan.

:58:42. > :58:49.But do you think his policies, particularly

:58:50. > :58:52.on immigration, might actually do be quite popular here?

:58:53. > :58:55.I think the problem is we don't really know what

:58:56. > :58:58.He will tweet one thing then something completely

:58:59. > :59:02.We've seen a great deal of opposition to him coming here and

:59:03. > :59:04.regardless what people think of his policies,

:59:05. > :59:06.it's really his attitude towards women, towards people of

:59:07. > :59:11.different race and his really quite frankly white supremacist friends

:59:12. > :59:17.I don't think we should pay him this honour of a state visit.

:59:18. > :59:21.But if you look at the polls in this country there is quite a lot of

:59:22. > :59:25.I think 49% say they would quite like the same restrictions on

:59:26. > :59:28.those seven countries that he has put in.

:59:29. > :59:33.Because I think people are whipped up into a sort of frenzy of

:59:34. > :59:35.concerned that isn't about rational policy-making.

:59:36. > :59:38.If you look at the seven countries where he's banned

:59:39. > :59:41.people from going into the US, there hasn't been a single terrorist

:59:42. > :59:44.attack from anyone in any of those countries so it's nothing to do with

:59:45. > :59:47.It's to do with using fear against certain

:59:48. > :59:51.Justin, do you think the Prime Minister made

:59:52. > :59:53.a bit of a slip-up going so quickly and holding hands?

:59:54. > :59:59.What you and I would do in terms of voting in

:00:00. > :00:01.the American elections is irrelevant.

:00:02. > :00:11.We may find his policies up rent and I suspect they will be

:00:12. > :00:14.counter-productive but the reality is we have a special relationship

:00:15. > :00:16.with America that's gone back gone back from when Churchill, we fought

:00:17. > :00:18.wars together, trade agreements and that

:00:19. > :00:19.will be in place long beyond

:00:20. > :00:21.when President Trump is holding high office.

:00:22. > :00:24.We have a duty because we are respected worldwide to engage,

:00:25. > :00:29.We've had many leaders come to visit this

:00:30. > :00:32.country of questionable morals, questionable policies but we do that

:00:33. > :00:36.because we have important roles to play in the global scene.

:00:37. > :00:38.Do you think it's important we get a trade

:00:39. > :00:48.reputation for being a country that defends human rights and if we carry

:00:49. > :00:51.on because of our weakness coming out of the European Union making

:00:52. > :00:57.friends with someone with someone who has such

:00:58. > :01:03.think it will really damage our international

:01:04. > :01:04.standing at just the

:01:05. > :01:21.Would you push for a trade deal all say we would rather be poorer?

:01:22. > :01:24.I don't think that would be good for the south-west.

:01:25. > :01:31.My thanks to my guests Justin Tomlinson and Molly Scott Cato.

:01:32. > :01:34.programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

:01:35. > :01:40.you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:41. > :01:43.Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

:01:44. > :01:46.Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

:01:47. > :01:51.And what is President Trump going to do next?

:01:52. > :02:09.You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

:02:10. > :02:14.you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

:02:15. > :02:18.stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

:02:19. > :02:23.will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

:02:24. > :02:27.supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

:02:28. > :02:31.of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

:02:32. > :02:35.forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

:02:36. > :02:39.they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

:02:40. > :02:43.to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

:02:44. > :02:46.beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

:02:47. > :02:52.for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

:02:53. > :02:58.defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

:02:59. > :03:04.as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

:03:05. > :03:09.Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

:03:10. > :03:13.ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

:03:14. > :03:17.2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

:03:18. > :03:23.Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

:03:24. > :03:26.happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

:03:27. > :03:29.local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

:03:30. > :03:33.seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

:03:34. > :03:38.that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

:03:39. > :03:41.overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

:03:42. > :03:46.find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

:03:47. > :03:50.the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

:03:51. > :03:59.force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

:04:00. > :04:06.Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

:04:07. > :04:09.countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

:04:10. > :04:13.have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

:04:14. > :04:17.fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

:04:18. > :04:21.built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

:04:22. > :04:24.green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

:04:25. > :04:31.do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

:04:32. > :04:36.farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

:04:37. > :04:41.belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

:04:42. > :04:45.agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

:04:46. > :04:49.In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

:04:50. > :04:53.area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

:04:54. > :04:57.always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

:04:58. > :05:01.pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

:05:02. > :05:08.They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

:05:09. > :05:13.older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

:05:14. > :05:19.anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

:05:20. > :05:22.is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

:05:23. > :05:27.system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

:05:28. > :05:30.the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

:05:31. > :05:34.the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

:05:35. > :05:38.track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

:05:39. > :05:45.it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

:05:46. > :05:50.in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

:05:51. > :05:55.three years to give the young families a certain stability over

:05:56. > :05:58.that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

:05:59. > :06:03.if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

:06:04. > :06:07.it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

:06:08. > :06:12.their policy now. This is probably item number four of

:06:13. > :06:16.Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

:06:17. > :06:21.last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

:06:22. > :06:26.mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

:06:27. > :06:30.be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

:06:31. > :06:32.grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

:06:33. > :06:39.grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

:06:40. > :06:41.bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

:06:42. > :06:47.that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

:06:48. > :06:50.target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

:06:51. > :06:55.happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

:06:56. > :06:57.one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

:06:58. > :07:04.willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

:07:05. > :07:08.that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

:07:09. > :07:15.How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

:07:16. > :07:21.over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

:07:22. > :07:26.vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

:07:27. > :07:30.quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

:07:31. > :07:36.seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

:07:37. > :07:39.last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

:07:40. > :07:42.Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

:07:43. > :07:47.about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

:07:48. > :07:51.vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

:07:52. > :07:56.and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

:07:57. > :08:00.amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

:08:01. > :08:04.veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

:08:05. > :08:08.vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

:08:09. > :08:14.case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

:08:15. > :08:17.go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

:08:18. > :08:22.views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

:08:23. > :08:29.understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

:08:30. > :08:33.that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

:08:34. > :08:38.Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

:08:39. > :08:43.go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

:08:44. > :08:48.again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

:08:49. > :08:54.the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

:08:55. > :08:57.begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

:08:58. > :09:00.and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

:09:01. > :09:05.particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

:09:06. > :09:09.Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

:09:10. > :09:12.next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

:09:13. > :09:17.end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

:09:18. > :09:21.on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

:09:22. > :09:25.deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

:09:26. > :09:31.out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

:09:32. > :09:35.great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

:09:36. > :09:39.on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

:09:40. > :09:42.vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

:09:43. > :09:47.remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

:09:48. > :09:52.it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

:09:53. > :09:57.one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

:09:58. > :10:00.against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

:10:01. > :10:07.parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

:10:08. > :10:13.majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

:10:14. > :10:22.recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

:10:23. > :10:26.self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

:10:27. > :10:30.this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

:10:31. > :10:35.have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

:10:36. > :10:39.the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

:10:40. > :10:47.their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

:10:48. > :10:51.you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

:10:52. > :10:53.as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

:10:54. > :10:57.saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

:10:58. > :11:02.what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

:11:03. > :11:06.you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

:11:07. > :11:12.went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

:11:13. > :11:15.American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

:11:16. > :11:19.America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

:11:20. > :11:23.As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

:11:24. > :11:26.This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

:11:27. > :11:29.on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

:11:30. > :11:36.anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

:11:37. > :11:40.talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

:11:41. > :11:43.happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

:11:44. > :11:47.are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

:11:48. > :11:51.the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

:11:52. > :11:58.who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

:11:59. > :12:01.Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

:12:02. > :12:06.these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

:12:07. > :12:10.having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

:12:11. > :12:14.cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

:12:15. > :12:19.chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

:12:20. > :12:24.that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

:12:25. > :12:28.we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

:12:29. > :12:35.there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

:12:36. > :12:38.campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

:12:39. > :12:42.daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

:12:43. > :12:45.pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

:12:46. > :12:49.Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

:12:50. > :12:54.populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

:12:55. > :12:57.are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

:12:58. > :12:59.American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

:13:00. > :13:05.their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

:13:06. > :13:11.as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

:13:12. > :13:14.have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

:13:15. > :13:18.and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

:13:19. > :13:20.America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

:13:21. > :13:23.Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

:13:24. > :13:26.the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

:13:27. > :14:05.Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

:14:06. > :14:18.TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

:14:19. > :14:31.so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?