:00:36. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:45. > :00:46.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:47. > :00:49.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:50. > :00:55.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:56. > :00:57.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:58. > :01:00.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:01. > :01:04.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:05. > :01:11.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:12. > :01:13.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:14. > :01:19.In the West - police cuts. of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:20. > :01:21.Our forces budgets have been squeezed for years,
:01:22. > :01:36.but is the thin blue line now too thin?
:01:37. > :01:40.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:41. > :01:42.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:43. > :01:45.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:46. > :01:48.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:49. > :01:52.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:53. > :01:54.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:55. > :01:59.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:00. > :02:05.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:06. > :02:07.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:08. > :02:10.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:11. > :02:14.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:15. > :02:16.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:17. > :02:21.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:22. > :02:24.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:25. > :02:35.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:36. > :02:42.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:43. > :02:46.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:47. > :02:48.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:49. > :03:00.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:01. > :03:06.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:07. > :03:10.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:11. > :03:13.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:14. > :03:19.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:20. > :03:24.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:25. > :03:29.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:30. > :03:33.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:34. > :03:38.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:39. > :03:43.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:44. > :03:49.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:50. > :03:56.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:57. > :04:00.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:01. > :04:04.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:05. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:14.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:15. > :04:19.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:20. > :04:22.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:23. > :04:28.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:29. > :04:32.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:33. > :04:36.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:37. > :04:43.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:44. > :04:47.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:48. > :04:52.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:53. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:02.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:03. > :05:06.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:07. > :05:10.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:11. > :05:15.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:16. > :05:18.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:19. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:28.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:29. > :05:35.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:36. > :05:41.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:42. > :05:47.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:48. > :05:51.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:52. > :05:56.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:57. > :06:03.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:04. > :06:09.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:10. > :06:13.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:14. > :06:17.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:18. > :06:22.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:23. > :06:29.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:30. > :06:33.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:34. > :06:38.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:39. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:49.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:50. > :06:55.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:56. > :07:01.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:02. > :07:06.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:07. > :07:09.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:10. > :07:14.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:15. > :07:17.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:18. > :07:22.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:23. > :07:27.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:28. > :07:31.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:32. > :07:34.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:35. > :07:37.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:38. > :07:40.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:41. > :07:42.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:43. > :07:45.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:46. > :07:48.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:49. > :07:54.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:55. > :07:57.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:58. > :08:02.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:03. > :08:05.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:06. > :08:09.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:10. > :08:13.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:14. > :08:16."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:17. > :08:18.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:19. > :08:20.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:21. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:35.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:36. > :08:41.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:42. > :08:44.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:45. > :08:45.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:46. > :08:48.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:49. > :08:52.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:53. > :08:58.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:59. > :09:01.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:02. > :09:05.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:06. > :09:12.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:13. > :09:15.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:16. > :09:20.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:21. > :09:25.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:26. > :09:32.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:33. > :09:39.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:40. > :09:45.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:46. > :09:49.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:50. > :09:53.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:54. > :09:57.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:58. > :10:02.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:03. > :10:06.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:07. > :10:11.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:12. > :10:19.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:20. > :10:25.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:26. > :10:30.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:31. > :10:35.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:36. > :10:43.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:44. > :10:47.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:48. > :10:51.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:52. > :10:56.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:57. > :11:00.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:01. > :11:06.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:07. > :11:11.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:12. > :11:16.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:17. > :11:21.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:22. > :11:24.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:25. > :11:30.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:31. > :11:33.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:34. > :11:40.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:41. > :11:46.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:47. > :11:51.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:52. > :11:56.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:57. > :12:03.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:04. > :12:07.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:08. > :12:12.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:13. > :12:16.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:17. > :12:22.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:23. > :12:27.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:28. > :12:31.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:32. > :12:35.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:36. > :12:41.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:42. > :12:45.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:46. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:55.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:56. > :13:01.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:02. > :13:09.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:10. > :13:14.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:15. > :13:19.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:20. > :13:23.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:24. > :13:27.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:28. > :13:34.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:35. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:45.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:46. > :13:48.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:49. > :13:54.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:55. > :14:02.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:03. > :14:06.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:07. > :14:09.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:10. > :14:14.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:15. > :14:18.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:19. > :14:24.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:25. > :14:27.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:28. > :14:33.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:34. > :14:38.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:39. > :14:42.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:43. > :14:48.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:49. > :14:52.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:53. > :14:58.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:59. > :15:07.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:08. > :15:08.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:09. > :15:16.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:17. > :15:20.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:21. > :15:25.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:26. > :15:30.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:31. > :15:36.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:37. > :15:40.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:41. > :15:43.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:44. > :15:50.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:51. > :15:56.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:57. > :16:01.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:02. > :16:06.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:07. > :16:10.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:11. > :16:17.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:18. > :16:24.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:25. > :16:28.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:29. > :16:31.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:32. > :16:36.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:37. > :16:42.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:43. > :16:46.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:47. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:58.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:59. > :17:03.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:04. > :17:12.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:13. > :17:17.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:18. > :17:24.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:25. > :17:28.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:29. > :17:33.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:34. > :17:36.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:37. > :17:39.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:40. > :17:44.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:45. > :17:48.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:49. > :17:54.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:55. > :18:08.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:09. > :18:12.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:13. > :18:18.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:19. > :18:24.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:25. > :18:29.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:30. > :18:34.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:35. > :18:40.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:41. > :18:47.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:48. > :18:52.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:53. > :18:55.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:56. > :19:04.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:05. > :19:07.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:08. > :19:10.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:11. > :19:12.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:13. > :19:15.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:16. > :19:20.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:21. > :19:26.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:27. > :19:29.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:30. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:32.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:33. > :19:42.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:43. > :19:49.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:50. > :19:59.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:00. > :20:01.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:02. > :20:05.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:06. > :20:08.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:09. > :20:10.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:11. > :20:12.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:13. > :20:17.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:18. > :20:19.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:20. > :20:24.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:25. > :20:26.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:27. > :20:30.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:31. > :20:33.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:34. > :20:36.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:37. > :20:41.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:42. > :20:45.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:46. > :20:48.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:49. > :20:51.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:52. > :20:53.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:54. > :21:02.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:03. > :21:05.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:06. > :21:08.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:09. > :21:14.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:15. > :21:22.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:23. > :21:26.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:27. > :21:30.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:31. > :21:33.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:34. > :21:36.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:37. > :21:38.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:39. > :21:43.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:44. > :21:46.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:47. > :21:49.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:50. > :21:53.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:54. > :21:58.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:59. > :22:03.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:04. > :22:05.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:06. > :22:09.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:10. > :22:11.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:12. > :22:20.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:21. > :22:23.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:24. > :22:25.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:26. > :22:32.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:33. > :22:41.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:42. > :22:45.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:46. > :22:47.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:48. > :22:50.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:51. > :22:53.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:54. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:08.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:09. > :23:10.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:11. > :23:13.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:14. > :23:19.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:20. > :23:21.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:22. > :23:24.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:25. > :23:28.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:29. > :23:33.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:34. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:43.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:44. > :23:58.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:59. > :24:04.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:05. > :24:08.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:09. > :24:12.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:13. > :24:16.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:17. > :24:22.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:23. > :24:26.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:27. > :24:29.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:30. > :24:35.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:36. > :24:41.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:42. > :24:46.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:47. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:53.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:54. > :24:58.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:59. > :25:03.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:04. > :25:07.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:08. > :25:12.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:13. > :25:16.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:17. > :25:20.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:21. > :25:23.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:24. > :25:29.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:30. > :25:32.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:33. > :25:38.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:39. > :25:43.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:44. > :25:48.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:49. > :25:54.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:55. > :25:58.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:59. > :26:02.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:03. > :26:22.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:23. > :26:28.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:29. > :26:33.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:34. > :26:36.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:37. > :26:42.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:43. > :26:46.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:47. > :26:50.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:51. > :26:59.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:00. > :27:08.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:09. > :27:11.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:12. > :27:17.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:18. > :27:22.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:23. > :27:27.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:28. > :27:30.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:31. > :27:35.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:36. > :27:42.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:43. > :27:47.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:48. > :27:54.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:55. > :28:02.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:03. > :28:06.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:07. > :28:11.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:12. > :28:18.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:19. > :28:23.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:24. > :28:28.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:29. > :28:30.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:31. > :28:37.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:38. > :28:45.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:46. > :28:50.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:51. > :28:56.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:57. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:08.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:09. > :29:17.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:18. > :29:21.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:22. > :29:28.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:29. > :29:34.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:35. > :29:40.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:41. > :29:43.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:44. > :29:47.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:48. > :29:53.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:54. > :29:57.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:58. > :30:01.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:02. > :30:09.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:10. > :30:10.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:11. > :30:24.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:25. > :30:28.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:29. > :30:30.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:31. > :30:36.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:37. > :30:43.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:44. > :30:49.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:50. > :30:53.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:54. > :30:59.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:00. > :31:06.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:07. > :31:13.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:14. > :31:16.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:17. > :31:21.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:22. > :31:25.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:26. > :31:31.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:32. > :31:35.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:36. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:47.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:48. > :31:51.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:52. > :31:55.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:56. > :31:58.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:59. > :32:03.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:04. > :32:07.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:08. > :32:09.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:10. > :32:13.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:14. > :32:17.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:18. > :32:20.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:21. > :32:23.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:24. > :32:28.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:29. > :32:31.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:32. > :32:36.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:37. > :32:40.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:41. > :32:45.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:46. > :32:48.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:49. > :32:54.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:55. > :32:57.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:58. > :33:04.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:05. > :33:08.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:09. > :33:14.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:15. > :33:18.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:19. > :33:21.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:22. > :33:28.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:29. > :33:32.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:33. > :33:39.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:40. > :33:44.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:45. > :33:49.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:50. > :33:55.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:56. > :34:00.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:01. > :34:05.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:06. > :34:08.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:09. > :34:13.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:14. > :34:18.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:19. > :34:22.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:23. > :34:27.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:28. > :34:34.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:35. > :34:37.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:38. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:48.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:49. > :34:54.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:55. > :34:58.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:59. > :35:02.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:03. > :35:08.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:09. > :35:13.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:14. > :35:16.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:17. > :35:20.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:21. > :35:25.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:26. > :35:29.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:30. > :35:33.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:34. > :35:39.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:40. > :35:43.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:44. > :35:47.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:48. > :35:53.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:54. > :35:57.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:58. > :36:01.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:02. > :36:05.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:06. > :36:09.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:10. > :36:15.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:16. > :36:20.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:21. > :36:27.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:28. > :36:33.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:34. > :36:38.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:39. > :36:43.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:44. > :36:48.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:49. > :36:52.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:53. > :36:57.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:58. > :37:00.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:01. > :37:06.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:07. > :37:12.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:13. > :37:17.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:18. > :37:23.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:24. > :37:28.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:29. > :37:31.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:32. > :37:37.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:38. > :37:42.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:43. > :37:47.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:48. > :37:51.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:52. > :37:55.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:56. > :38:01.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:02. > :38:06.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:07. > :38:11.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:12. > :38:18.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:19. > :38:25.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:26. > :38:31.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:32. > :38:36.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:37. > :38:37.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:38. > :38:39.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:40. > :38:41.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:42. > :38:44.in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to The Sunday
:38:45. > :38:55.Politics in the glorious West. We were promised a big cut in red
:38:56. > :39:03.tape, but will leaving the EU really To debate that and so much
:39:04. > :39:09.more our three guests are Conservative MP James Gray,
:39:10. > :39:12.Labour's Thangam Debbonaire and the Avon and Somerset Police
:39:13. > :39:14.and Crime Commissioner, We'll hear from them in a moment.
:39:15. > :39:20.Good morning to you all. First, police forces have
:39:21. > :39:23.taken their share of cuts over the last seven years and for much
:39:24. > :39:27.of that time crime kept going down. But recently burglary has started
:39:28. > :39:29.rising again in Avon So are police cuts
:39:30. > :39:39.making us less safe? Our Home Affairs
:39:40. > :39:41.correspondent reports. We have been up here doing revisits
:39:42. > :39:45.on burglary victims today. Out on the beat, this is real
:39:46. > :39:48.neighbourhood policing, the kind the public say
:39:49. > :39:51.they want to see more of. PC Kye Hendy and PSCO
:39:52. > :39:54.Charlotte Thompson are responding to another report of
:39:55. > :39:59.a burglary overnight. It started in Horfield
:40:00. > :40:02.from last November. We were seeing an increase in garage
:40:03. > :40:05.and shed breaks for high value bicycles and it spread over
:40:06. > :40:08.to Lockleaze and surrounding They're determined to
:40:09. > :40:13.catch their man or woman All services are having to do more
:40:14. > :40:19.with less, but burglary But it is also about
:40:20. > :40:24.the public helping us. So taking a bit of responsibility
:40:25. > :40:28.for themselves and also to make Even if you try the odd front door
:40:29. > :40:32.they are always open. It is a polite reminder to everyone
:40:33. > :40:40.to review their own security. Avon and Somerset have seen a 36%
:40:41. > :40:42.increase in burglaries since 2014. Wiltshire have seen
:40:43. > :40:45.an increase - up by 23%. But in Gloucestershire,
:40:46. > :40:48.the figures are down by 10%. An increase in crimes puts pressure
:40:49. > :40:52.on local teams like these. All our forces say they are feeling
:40:53. > :40:55.the pressure of years The thin blue line is being
:40:56. > :41:02.stretched ever further. Here in Avon and Somerset
:41:03. > :41:04.20% of their budget has They have fewer frontline officers
:41:05. > :41:08.than other similar forces because of the way funding
:41:09. > :41:13.is shared out. Wiltshire Police also claimed
:41:14. > :41:17.the Government's funding formula is bad for them meaning they can't
:41:18. > :41:19.afford as many police Like in Avon and Somerset,
:41:20. > :41:23.both Wiltshire Police and Gloucestershire Police,
:41:24. > :41:25.have seen real terms In Bristol, Avon and Somerset's most
:41:26. > :41:33.senior detective in charge of burglaries says criminals
:41:34. > :41:36.are resorting to fishing through cat We've seen an increase in car key
:41:37. > :41:46.burglaries where the thieves are targeting the high value cars
:41:47. > :41:48.that on people's driveways. So in the past people would have
:41:49. > :41:50.had their cars stolen Now with the increase
:41:51. > :41:55.in security devices, it's impossible to steal a car
:41:56. > :41:58.unless you've got the keys But what do the cutbacks mean
:41:59. > :42:06.for the victims in these crimes? We have to prioritise
:42:07. > :42:08.that the limited resources that we have got, burglary
:42:09. > :42:11.is a priority, but we have to balance that with other serious
:42:12. > :42:13.crime investigations particularly serious sexual offences,
:42:14. > :42:15.offences against women and children which are also our
:42:16. > :42:18.priorities as well. It has been a long day and whilst
:42:19. > :42:26.many are going home, these two are off to meet another
:42:27. > :42:29.family who have been burgled. I'm the local police officer
:42:30. > :42:32.and this is Charlotte. I understand you've
:42:33. > :42:34.suffered a burglary. Anna stepped out and I was putting
:42:35. > :42:38.Isabel to bed and when I came down, I looked out the back door
:42:39. > :42:40.and my office doors I could see that something
:42:41. > :42:49.had happened outside. I went down and I noticed
:42:50. > :42:52.that my road bike had been stolen. Along with some cash
:42:53. > :42:54.that was on the side It's worrying and it is not very
:42:55. > :43:01.nice knowing that someone has been in your house and stolen things that
:43:02. > :43:07.you've worked hard for to pay for. They're grateful for the police's
:43:08. > :43:11.help and when the public are asked, this kind of policing remains one
:43:12. > :43:14.of their top priorities. Sue, as the commissioner,
:43:15. > :43:21.is burglary one of your priorities? I think looking at all the things,
:43:22. > :43:27.burglary is a priority, but what was said on that piece
:43:28. > :43:30.is local neighbourhood policing So burglary as a crime
:43:31. > :43:33.isn't a priority? The priority is protecting the most
:43:34. > :43:38.vulnerable from harm. Where we've got reduced funding,
:43:39. > :43:41.we have to make sure that we are problem solving
:43:42. > :43:44.and local neighbourhood policing teams is key to that and that's why
:43:45. > :43:48.Andy Marsh the Chief Constable and I are ring-fencing local police
:43:49. > :43:51.teams so that they are. If there was a burglary in a big
:43:52. > :43:54.house with posh people, The police will always go to where
:43:55. > :44:00.the greatest risk of harm is. You haven't got your priorities
:44:01. > :44:05.right because burglary is going up? Burglary had a spike last
:44:06. > :44:10.year and I very publicly was disappointed in how the police
:44:11. > :44:16.were tackling that. But there is a whole range of things
:44:17. > :44:22.about burglary and some of them are really not easy to be able
:44:23. > :44:25.to find solutions to. You have got an overwhelming chance
:44:26. > :44:31.of getting away with it? They are not good enough and I have
:44:32. > :44:34.had that conversation many times with the Chief Constable
:44:35. > :44:37.and there is an added focus But it is not on your website -
:44:38. > :44:44.burglary is one of my priorities. It's protecting the most vulnerable
:44:45. > :44:48.from harm is the priority. James, the so-called party of law
:44:49. > :44:52.and order has seen police funding cut by 22% and thousands of officers
:44:53. > :44:56.taken out of the service. Are you surprised that
:44:57. > :45:00.the police aren't happy? It is not about how much we spend,
:45:01. > :45:03.it is how you spend it and Sue was correct to say
:45:04. > :45:06.it is a question of priorities. In Wiltshire I'm asking a lot
:45:07. > :45:09.of questions about why the police are spending ?1 million occupying 18
:45:10. > :45:11.police officers full-time investigating whether or not
:45:12. > :45:16.Ted Heath was a paedophile. I don't know if he was or not,
:45:17. > :45:20.and if he was that must be exposed, but 18 police officers,
:45:21. > :45:23.?1 million so far on a man that's I'm not certain that's the right
:45:24. > :45:27.priority and it is not only a question about how much money
:45:28. > :45:30.you spend, but where you spend it Would you be surprised if police
:45:31. > :45:37.chiefs told you we are not as good a service as we used to be
:45:38. > :45:40.because they had a 20% budget cut. Can you imagine spending
:45:41. > :45:42.20% less on anything You look at serious sexual assaults,
:45:43. > :45:54.that's gone up - 180% increase How much of that do you put
:45:55. > :46:00.down to lack of funding? It's to do with the fact
:46:01. > :46:03.that we have fewer police officers. We have a really unfair
:46:04. > :46:07.funding formula. Under Labour domestic abuse has been
:46:08. > :46:13.tackled in a really interesting and smart way which actually brought
:46:14. > :46:15.down domestic homicides in certain parts of the country and that's
:46:16. > :46:18.because we were tackling it by funding refuges and funding
:46:19. > :46:20.rape crisis centres What would you do about tackling
:46:21. > :46:24.burglary which is the focus I'm not happy with the Government's
:46:25. > :46:28.cuts to police funding. I don't think it is safe and I don't
:46:29. > :46:33.think it is appropriate and I don't like the idea of putting,
:46:34. > :46:35.not just the most vulnerable, but also in some circumstances our
:46:36. > :46:39.police officers at risk. What is puzzling is this -
:46:40. > :46:41.the police are explaining No money in social care
:46:42. > :46:46.or not enough we're told, NHS, prisons, education,
:46:47. > :46:48.all and our infrastructure seems to be crumbling and yet,
:46:49. > :46:51.the Government, Mrs May is 16 points ahead in the polls, how
:46:52. > :46:58.can you explain that? What I can do is show
:46:59. > :47:01.you what I have been doing and what my colleagues have been
:47:02. > :47:04.doing and Labour MPs An explanation about why when
:47:05. > :47:07.the infrastructure is crumbling. Labour isn't up there
:47:08. > :47:11.and above the Tories? What we've got to do is focus
:47:12. > :47:16.on exposing what the Government is doing and we have been doing that
:47:17. > :47:20.as well as we possibly can. Labour MPs are fighting really hard
:47:21. > :47:23.and are showing up that the social care funding is not enough
:47:24. > :47:26.and that's creating a perfect storm in the Health Service and we had
:47:27. > :47:29.a debate on that earlier But you have got no explanation why
:47:30. > :47:32.you're so unpopular? I don't enter into discussions
:47:33. > :47:34.about opinion polls. A long time ago I decided that
:47:35. > :47:37.I wasn't going to enter into discussion about opinion polls
:47:38. > :47:40.because I'm not really sure how I'm really unhappy about
:47:41. > :47:50.the result in Copeland. So where is the protection
:47:51. > :47:52.from the public? If the Conservatives are making cuts
:47:53. > :47:55.with impunity, where is your Just this week there
:47:56. > :48:00.was a committee that I was sitting on and James was chairing
:48:01. > :48:04.on which James can't comment. But we tackled the Government on how
:48:05. > :48:07.they were undermining the ban This was being snuck
:48:08. > :48:11.through as a regulatory change quietly, but we attacked them
:48:12. > :48:14.and got some of their MPs Sue, how much more money
:48:15. > :48:18.would you need to make Avon and Somerset the force
:48:19. > :48:21.you would wish it to be? If you look at what happened over
:48:22. > :48:28.the last seven or eight years we've lost over ?110 million
:48:29. > :48:30.because of an unfair So I want the Government to look
:48:31. > :48:35.at a fair and transparent formula which looks at the number of people
:48:36. > :48:41.that are in Avon and Somerset. No, one cake and if you have a fair
:48:42. > :48:51.funding formula which means more money for Bristol,
:48:52. > :48:53.and the west, it means less If that's not more money,
:48:54. > :49:00.what does fair mean? Let's have the money that
:49:01. > :49:11.we've had taken off us so money has been taken to -
:49:12. > :49:13.this is the transition phase. Our money has gone to other forces
:49:14. > :49:16.such as with Cumbria. We need to have the fairer
:49:17. > :49:19.funding formula. We would have another 350 police
:49:20. > :49:21.officers in Avon and Somerset We will have to leave it
:49:22. > :49:29.because we've got other Now headline writers
:49:30. > :49:34.love to describe Brexit as a political earthquake
:49:35. > :49:36.that will shake this country But might it all prove to be
:49:37. > :49:40.more of a tiny tremor? Local billionaire Sir
:49:41. > :49:42.James Dyson thinks so. He brushed off leaving the EU
:49:43. > :49:45.as a minor event before announcing a huge investment
:49:46. > :49:47.into the West's economy. We bought Hullavington Airport which
:49:48. > :49:58.is only a short way down the road. As votes of confidence
:49:59. > :50:00.in Brexit Britain go, On Tuesday, billionaire inventor
:50:01. > :50:04.Sir James Dyson gathered staff in Wiltshire to reveal he would be
:50:05. > :50:07.doubling their numbers He bought the old RAF airfield
:50:08. > :50:14.at Hullavington to work on the technologies of tomorrow,
:50:15. > :50:16.whether it is for electric cars or robots, he wouldn't say,
:50:17. > :50:19.but he was keen to stress leaving It's a comparatively small event
:50:20. > :50:35.in a company's life. There are lots of things like
:50:36. > :50:37.European restrictive trade practises so we have to do for example
:50:38. > :50:41.a special vacuum cleaner for Europe, We do that and we trade
:50:42. > :50:45.and expand our trade with the rest of the world and it would be nice
:50:46. > :50:48.if they could reduce His frustration with red tape
:50:49. > :50:51.follows a legal battle with Europe over labelling laws
:50:52. > :50:54.for vacuum cleaners. It's an issue that causes sparks
:50:55. > :50:57.to fly at the other end Nick Lockstone makes
:50:58. > :51:01.bespoke trailers out He had his own run-in
:51:02. > :51:08.with the EU over the size This name plate was designed
:51:09. > :51:15.to take a three mil stamps. However EU law dictates
:51:16. > :51:17.the minimum size is four mil. So just because the writing
:51:18. > :51:21.was one millimetre... He's also concerned about new safety
:51:22. > :51:33.tests, the individual vehicle assessment comes from
:51:34. > :51:35.a European directive. For him it means taking
:51:36. > :51:37.each new trailer for a safety That's a three hour
:51:38. > :51:42.round trip and a ?75 fee. It's just extra regulations
:51:43. > :51:44.that have to be met. The trailers, all the components
:51:45. > :51:48.we use on the trailers are exactly the same, the brakes,
:51:49. > :51:50.the wheels, the tyres, lightening, couplings,
:51:51. > :51:52.they are all the same except now we have to jump through these extra
:51:53. > :51:56.hurdles to get a little bit of paper He says there are already enough
:51:57. > :52:00.checks to ensure his trailers are road worthy and the extra tests
:52:01. > :52:03.put him off from doing Some hope for a bonfire
:52:04. > :52:11.of red tape after Brexit. The independent think-tank Open
:52:12. > :52:16.Europe put the cost of the 100 most burdensome rules on British business
:52:17. > :52:19.as over ?30 billion a year. The most expensive include the UK
:52:20. > :52:21.renewable energy strategy, the Working Time Directive,
:52:22. > :52:23.and the temporary agency But will leaving the EU lead
:52:24. > :52:39.to less red tape or more? This is a Valentino
:52:40. > :52:42.Rossi balance bike. They make balance bikes for children
:52:43. > :52:46.at this Somerset firm. Much of their business is done
:52:47. > :52:49.on the Continent and they worry that exporting abroad could lead to two
:52:50. > :52:54.sets of rules. One for trade in Britain
:52:55. > :52:56.and another for Europe. If there is going to be UK standards
:52:57. > :53:00.that are different and require additional safety testing then yes,
:53:01. > :53:02.it's going to affect us because we're going to have to go
:53:03. > :53:05.through all the extra cost of testing, all the extra time
:53:06. > :53:08.and bureaucracy that's going to be involved or the certification it's
:53:09. > :53:10.going to have, I would say, His soaring confidence is not
:53:11. > :53:18.shared by everyone then. With just days to go
:53:19. > :53:20.until Brexit negotiations start, and a new future is drawn up
:53:21. > :53:27.for our country. I don't know what he's
:53:28. > :53:29.drawing there, but I'm sure James, we were told that immigration
:53:30. > :53:37.would come down or migration All these things are
:53:38. > :53:47.vanishing, aren't they? We are still in the European Union
:53:48. > :53:53.and we will be for another two years After that time, we in Westminster
:53:54. > :53:57.will decide about red tape and will decide about migration
:53:58. > :53:59.and decide about trade and all these things,
:54:00. > :54:02.we will be the ones that decide and we will be listening
:54:03. > :54:07.to Sir James Dyson and to the others Right now, Europe doesn't
:54:08. > :54:10.listen to them at all. You can decide until you're red
:54:11. > :54:14.in the face, but if you want to sell something to the EU,
:54:15. > :54:16.you will have to abide So it could mean companies will have
:54:17. > :54:22.to abide by the regulations that you've decided in the UK
:54:23. > :54:24.and the regulations they have If you sell something to America,
:54:25. > :54:31.you have American regulations or to Japan or to Australia
:54:32. > :54:33.or India, or anywhere else in the world,
:54:34. > :54:36.of course, you have to sell things in those countries in the way
:54:37. > :54:38.they want to buy it. We will do our best to make
:54:39. > :54:42.sure our regulations But European regulations aren't
:54:43. > :54:45.the same as American Now you're bringing in another one
:54:46. > :54:49.which will be UK regulations? It may or may not be depending
:54:50. > :55:00.on what we in Westminster decide. Well, I mean James
:55:01. > :55:03.has already said it. We're going to have to abide by many
:55:04. > :55:06.different sets of regulations and we do now and that's
:55:07. > :55:09.going to carry on so that's something which actually hasn't
:55:10. > :55:11.changed and it's not changing now as you say and it's not
:55:12. > :55:14.going to change after we leave What's important is Robin mentioned
:55:15. > :55:17.about Working Time Directives, about the renewable energy
:55:18. > :55:19.directive, about the temporary agencies directives, I want to carry
:55:20. > :55:21.on protecting workers. You want workers to carry on having
:55:22. > :55:24.rights if they're temporary workers. I'd alike us to carry on having
:55:25. > :55:27.a renewable energy strategy. I hope that those aren't so-called
:55:28. > :55:30.red tapes that we're chucking away. One person's red tapes is another
:55:31. > :55:32.person's rights and I want Do you accept the fears that
:55:33. > :55:39.were expressed during the campaign Well, as James said,
:55:40. > :55:43.I'm going to agree with James. We haven't actually left
:55:44. > :55:48.the European Union yet. So some of the things that some
:55:49. > :55:51.of us warned may go wrong, they haven't happened
:55:52. > :55:55.because we haven't left. Sir James Dyson says
:55:56. > :55:58.it is a minor event. A lot of his exports don't go
:55:59. > :56:01.to the European Union anyway. He's going to have to carry
:56:02. > :56:03.on meeting different standards. He's going to have to carry
:56:04. > :56:06.on meeting EU standards He says that but there
:56:07. > :56:11.are other exporters In my constituency I have
:56:12. > :56:15.the financial services sector and the creative and the tech sector
:56:16. > :56:18.and the university, all have said they have warned me of terrible
:56:19. > :56:20.problems ahead when we leave From the police point of view,
:56:21. > :56:24.do you have a Brexit opinion, There are two things
:56:25. > :56:28.that concern me. One, that we need the
:56:29. > :56:32.European Arrest Warrant. Really important and that will be
:56:33. > :56:35.part of the negotiations, but criminals don't recognise
:56:36. > :56:38.borders and nor should the police, but the second thing that we have
:56:39. > :56:42.noticed particularly within Avon and Somerset and in Bristol,
:56:43. > :56:45.is the increase in hate crime and that has and we will
:56:46. > :56:47.expect to see... Have you seen concrete evidence
:56:48. > :56:55.of that happening and you can There has been an increase
:56:56. > :56:59.and after the Brexit vote, there was a really big spike
:57:00. > :57:02.and now that has come down, but it hasn't come down
:57:03. > :57:06.to the level that it was before. Parts of the West, 60% for example
:57:07. > :57:09.in Bristol voted for Brexit. And yet this was the city that
:57:10. > :57:20.voted against Brexit? But I think the politicians
:57:21. > :57:23.let the genie out of bottle by making racist
:57:24. > :57:25.comments and I think that has almost given permission for other people
:57:26. > :57:28.to show that against other people. Some did, Sue.
:57:29. > :57:30.Most of us, didn't. Let me just move on to
:57:31. > :57:32.another Brexit point That's the rights of people to live
:57:33. > :57:41.in this country, EU citizens. James, should they be given that
:57:42. > :57:43.assurance straightaway? The thing about the
:57:44. > :57:45.debate in the lords, has been about the Europeans living
:57:46. > :57:47.here. They haven't mentioned
:57:48. > :57:49.the 3.8 million British people What we're saying is let's make this
:57:50. > :57:53.the first thing that we negotiate and we'll find equal rights
:57:54. > :57:55.for the Brits living overseas and the EU and EU
:57:56. > :57:59.citizens living here. Let's not just make it
:58:00. > :58:01.a one-sided deal and give Why don't we get ahead and raise
:58:02. > :58:05.the bar straightaway by saying we are going to guarantee the rights
:58:06. > :58:09.of EU citizens... You're giving away a good
:58:10. > :58:11.negotiating tactic by doing that. Because you're handing away one
:58:12. > :58:22.important negotiating at that There are people in my constituency
:58:23. > :58:26.who come from the European Union you have been here 20 years
:58:27. > :58:29.and who are married, who have got children and got jobs
:58:30. > :58:31.and contribute to Bristol. At the moment they are in
:58:32. > :58:33.terrible uncertainty. There are people from your
:58:34. > :58:36.constituency who are living in Paris We can at least set an example
:58:37. > :58:44.and say to those European citizens who I welcome,
:58:45. > :58:47.who I value, come to see me in tears, I want them
:58:48. > :58:49.to have some certainty. When they came to you in tears,
:58:50. > :58:53.I hope you reassured. That the Labour peers have been
:58:54. > :58:56.standing up for them The first day I held a surgery,
:58:57. > :59:01.I had a considerable number of Europeans who came to see me
:59:02. > :59:04.in the middle of Broadmead who were really scared and they have
:59:05. > :59:07.put their families It's the French and Germans
:59:08. > :59:11.who are holding out They're obviously playing hard ball
:59:12. > :59:15.which may indicate how they're going to play the game later
:59:16. > :59:17.on about Brexit. Why would you accept
:59:18. > :59:19.something if they are not It's called negotiation for a reason
:59:20. > :59:23.and we need to negotiate. That's not negotiating,
:59:24. > :59:25.that's giving? We can't put into our legislation
:59:26. > :59:27.something requiring the French It's about principles
:59:28. > :59:36.and it's about fairness. Well, let's take a look
:59:37. > :59:39.at the political week A millionaire Ukip donor,
:59:40. > :59:49.Aaron Banks, may try to unseat The Bristol businessman
:59:50. > :59:51.has been feuding with He says he will stand against him
:59:52. > :59:58.at the next election. Plans to expand Cribbs Causeway have
:59:59. > :00:01.been called in by the Government. The site has planning permission,
:00:02. > :00:03.but has been criticised by local The Secretary of State
:00:04. > :00:10.will now decide. There has been further pressure
:00:11. > :00:15.to rename Bristol's Colston Hall, more than 1,500 people have signed
:00:16. > :00:17.a petition because Edward Colston The name could change as part
:00:18. > :00:22.of a multi-million pound revamp. And political history
:00:23. > :00:25.was made this week. The first meeting of the body
:00:26. > :00:27.which will eventually be Just make sure you
:00:28. > :00:34.use its full name! It's the West of England
:00:35. > :00:49.Combined Authority. Very catchy, one word answers
:00:50. > :00:52.because we're short of time. The Colston Hall, should
:00:53. > :00:54.it change its name, it The Wills building was tobacco,
:00:55. > :00:59.they changed the name. But Whiteladies Road we're
:01:00. > :01:01.sitting in right now, We need to involve the city in this
:01:02. > :01:07.discussion because the city's memorial and it is the city's
:01:08. > :01:09.decision. You're a whip and
:01:10. > :01:13.there is speculation about whether you're
:01:14. > :01:15.going to keep your job because Are you still going to be in work
:01:16. > :01:19.this time next week? I'm still a whip.
:01:20. > :01:28.Who can predict the future, not me? My thanks to my guests,
:01:29. > :01:32.James Gray, Thangam Debbonaire Please follow us on Twitter
:01:33. > :01:36.for latest political news You can watch the programme
:01:37. > :01:41.again on the iplayer But for now, let's go back
:01:42. > :01:50.to London and Andrew. need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:51. > :01:52.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:53. > :01:58.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:59. > :02:03.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:04. > :02:07.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:08. > :02:10.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:11. > :02:22.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:23. > :02:25.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:26. > :02:30.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:31. > :02:37.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:38. > :02:40.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:41. > :02:47.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:48. > :02:53.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:54. > :02:58.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:02:59. > :03:01.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:02. > :03:09.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:10. > :03:13.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:14. > :03:18.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:19. > :03:25.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:26. > :03:29.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:30. > :03:36.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:37. > :03:41.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:42. > :03:47.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:48. > :03:51.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:52. > :03:56.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:57. > :04:00.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:01. > :04:05.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:06. > :04:11.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:12. > :04:16.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:17. > :04:21.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:22. > :04:24.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:25. > :04:29.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:30. > :04:33.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:34. > :04:39.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:40. > :04:45.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:46. > :04:53.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:54. > :04:59.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:05:00. > :05:04.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:05. > :05:10.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:11. > :05:17.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:18. > :05:22.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:23. > :05:29.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:30. > :05:32.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:33. > :05:36.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:37. > :05:40.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:41. > :05:43.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:44. > :05:46.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:47. > :05:48.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:49. > :05:50.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:51. > :05:56.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:57. > :06:00.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:01. > :06:15.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:16. > :06:28.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:29. > :06:33.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:34. > :06:38.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:39. > :06:42.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:43. > :06:46.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:47. > :06:52.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:53. > :06:55.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:56. > :07:00.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:01. > :07:04.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:05. > :07:09.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:10. > :07:13.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:14. > :07:18.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:19. > :07:22.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:23. > :07:31.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:32. > :07:36.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:37. > :07:42.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:43. > :07:46.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:47. > :07:50.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:51. > :07:57.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:58. > :08:00.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:01. > :08:09.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:10. > :08:13.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:14. > :08:18.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:19. > :08:23.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:24. > :08:29.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:30. > :08:32.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:33. > :08:37.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:38. > :08:41.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:42. > :08:47.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:48. > :08:51.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:52. > :08:56.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:57. > :09:03.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:04. > :09:10.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:11. > :09:17.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:18. > :09:21.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:22. > :09:23.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:24. > :09:25.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:26. > :09:28.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:29. > :09:31."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:32. > :09:35.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:36. > :09:48.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:49. > :09:51.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:52. > :09:57."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:58. > :10:10.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:11. > :10:11.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:12. > :10:24.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:25. > :10:29.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:30. > :10:32.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:33. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:46.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:47. > :10:51.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:52. > :10:55.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:56. > :11:08.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:09. > :11:13.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:14. > :11:17.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:18. > :11:25.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:26. > :11:29.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:30. > :11:34.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:35. > :11:39.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:40. > :11:44.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:45. > :11:49.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:50. > :11:55.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:56. > :12:00.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:01. > :12:04.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:05. > :12:09.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:10. > :12:15.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:16. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:23.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:24. > :12:26.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:27. > :12:31.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:32. > :12:34.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:35. > :12:40.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:41. > :12:42.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:43. > :12:51.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:52. > :12:55.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:56. > :12:59.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:00. > :13:04.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:05. > :13:09.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:10. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:22.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:23. > :13:26.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:27. > :13:33.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:34. > :13:38.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:39. > :13:41.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:42. > :13:44.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:45. > :14:34.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
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