:00:36. > :00:39.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:43. > :00:47.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:48. > :00:52.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:53. > :00:56.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:57. > :01:01.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:02. > :01:04.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:05. > :01:15.And then the West, and who's going up and who's going down?
:01:16. > :01:17.And then the West, and education special. We are talking about
:01:18. > :01:20.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:21. > :01:28.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:29. > :01:30.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:31. > :01:33.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:34. > :01:38.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:39. > :01:41.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:42. > :01:43.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:44. > :01:49.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:50. > :01:52.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:53. > :01:57.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:58. > :01:59.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:02:00. > :02:06.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:07. > :02:11.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:12. > :02:16.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:17. > :02:18.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:19. > :02:21.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:22. > :02:23.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:24. > :02:27.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:28. > :02:38.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:39. > :02:43.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:44. > :02:47.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:48. > :02:52.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:53. > :02:59.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:00. > :03:04.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:05. > :03:10.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:11. > :03:19.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:20. > :03:22.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:23. > :03:27.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:28. > :03:33.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:34. > :03:36.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:37. > :03:42.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:43. > :03:50.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:51. > :03:57.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:58. > :04:00.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:01. > :04:05.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:06. > :04:11.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:12. > :04:16.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:17. > :04:19.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:20. > :04:25.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:26. > :04:30.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:31. > :04:34.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:35. > :04:39.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:40. > :04:44.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:45. > :04:49.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:50. > :04:52.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:53. > :04:57.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:58. > :05:03.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:04. > :05:08.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:09. > :05:13.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:14. > :05:17.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:18. > :05:24.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:25. > :05:31.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:32. > :05:34.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:35. > :05:39.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:40. > :05:45.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:46. > :05:52.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:53. > :05:55.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:56. > :06:00.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:01. > :06:05.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:06. > :06:09.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:10. > :06:20.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:21. > :06:25.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:26. > :06:29.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:30. > :06:35.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:36. > :06:43.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:44. > :06:46.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:47. > :06:50.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:51. > :06:51.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:52. > :06:54.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:55. > :06:56.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:57. > :06:58.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:06:59. > :07:01.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:02. > :07:04.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:05. > :07:09.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:10. > :07:11.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:12. > :07:21.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:22. > :07:23.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:24. > :07:26.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:27. > :07:32.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:33. > :07:34.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:35. > :07:41.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:42. > :07:48.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:49. > :07:50.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:51. > :07:52."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:53. > :07:55.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:56. > :07:59.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:08:00. > :08:02.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:03. > :08:08.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:09. > :08:12.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:13. > :08:15.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:16. > :08:17.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:18. > :08:20.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:21. > :08:22.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:23. > :08:28.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:29. > :08:31.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:32. > :08:40.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:41. > :08:55.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:56. > :08:56.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:57. > :08:56.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:57. > :08:56.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:57. > :08:59.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:09:00. > :09:02.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:03. > :09:05.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:06. > :09:08.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:09. > :09:10.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:11. > :09:15.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:16. > :09:17.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:18. > :09:24.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:25. > :09:27.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:28. > :09:29.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:30. > :09:35.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:36. > :09:37.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:38. > :09:44.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:45. > :09:47.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:48. > :09:50.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:51. > :09:57.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:58. > :10:00.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:01. > :10:03.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:04. > :10:06.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:07. > :10:12.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:13. > :10:15.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:16. > :10:18.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:19. > :10:21.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:22. > :10:30.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:31. > :10:35.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:36. > :10:41.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:42. > :10:44.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:45. > :10:47.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:48. > :10:57.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:58. > :11:03.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:04. > :11:11.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:12. > :11:15.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:16. > :11:22.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:23. > :11:28.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:29. > :11:33.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:34. > :11:37.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:38. > :11:43.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:44. > :11:47.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:48. > :11:51.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:52. > :11:56.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:57. > :11:59.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:00. > :12:08.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:09. > :12:11.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:12. > :12:17.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:18. > :12:24.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:25. > :12:29.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:30. > :12:33.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:34. > :12:37.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:38. > :12:43.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:44. > :12:48.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:49. > :12:56.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:57. > :13:01.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:02. > :13:07.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:08. > :13:10.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:11. > :13:21.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:22. > :13:24.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:25. > :13:30.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:31. > :13:33.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:34. > :13:38.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:39. > :13:42.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:43. > :13:47.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:48. > :13:51.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:52. > :13:58.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:13:59. > :14:01.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:02. > :14:06.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:07. > :14:13.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:14. > :14:17.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:18. > :14:22.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:23. > :14:26.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:27. > :14:31.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:32. > :14:37.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:38. > :14:42.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:43. > :14:45.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:46. > :14:49.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:50. > :14:52.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:53. > :14:58.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:14:59. > :15:06.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:07. > :15:10.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:11. > :15:15.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:16. > :15:23.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:24. > :15:27.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:28. > :15:32.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:33. > :15:38.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:39. > :15:41.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:42. > :15:43.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:44. > :15:55.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:56. > :16:00.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:01. > :16:07.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:08. > :16:11.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:12. > :16:17.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:18. > :16:21.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:22. > :16:29.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:30. > :16:33.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:34. > :16:38.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:39. > :16:43.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:44. > :16:46.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:47. > :16:51.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:52. > :16:55.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:56. > :17:00.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:01. > :17:05.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:06. > :17:11.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:12. > :17:16.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:17. > :17:22.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:23. > :17:25.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:26. > :17:29.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:30. > :17:34.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:35. > :17:38.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:39. > :17:49.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:50. > :17:51.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:52. > :17:54.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:55. > :17:57.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:58. > :18:03.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:04. > :18:09.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:10. > :18:13.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:14. > :18:18.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:19. > :18:23.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:24. > :18:27.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:28. > :18:29.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:30. > :18:32.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:33. > :18:34.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:35. > :18:35.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:36. > :18:38.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:39. > :18:42.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:43. > :18:44.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:45. > :18:49.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:50. > :18:56.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:57. > :19:02.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:03. > :19:06.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:07. > :19:09.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:10. > :19:16.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:17. > :19:18.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:19. > :19:21.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:22. > :19:23.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:24. > :19:26.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:27. > :19:31.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:32. > :19:38.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:39. > :19:39.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:40. > :19:42.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:43. > :19:44.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:45. > :19:49.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:50. > :19:52.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:53. > :19:59.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:20:00. > :20:01.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:02. > :20:06.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:07. > :20:08.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:09. > :20:11.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:12. > :20:14.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:15. > :20:23.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:24. > :20:25.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:26. > :20:28.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:29. > :20:30.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:31. > :20:38.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:39. > :20:42.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:43. > :20:46.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:47. > :20:51.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:52. > :20:56.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:57. > :20:59.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:00. > :21:03.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:04. > :21:15.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:16. > :21:17.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:18. > :21:20.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:21. > :21:23.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:24. > :21:27.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:28. > :21:31.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:32. > :21:35.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:36. > :21:39.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:40. > :21:43.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:44. > :21:47.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:48. > :21:55.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:56. > :21:57.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:58. > :22:01.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:02. > :22:05.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:06. > :22:09.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:10. > :22:12.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:13. > :22:16.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:17. > :22:21.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:22. > :22:52.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:53. > :22:56.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:57. > :22:57.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:58. > :23:00.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:01. > :23:03.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:04. > :23:05.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:06. > :23:08.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:09. > :23:11.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:12. > :23:13.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:14. > :23:16.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:17. > :23:18.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:19. > :23:21.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:22. > :23:27.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:28. > :23:31.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:32. > :23:36.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:37. > :23:43.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:44. > :23:48.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:49. > :23:54.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:55. > :23:57.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:58. > :24:03.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:04. > :24:07.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:08. > :24:11.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:12. > :24:15.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:16. > :24:24.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:25. > :24:26.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:27. > :24:30.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:31. > :24:34.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:35. > :24:38.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:39. > :24:43.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:44. > :24:47.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:48. > :24:53.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:54. > :24:56.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:57. > :25:03.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:04. > :25:06.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:07. > :25:12.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:13. > :25:17.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:18. > :25:22.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:23. > :25:24.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:25. > :25:40.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:41. > :25:43.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:44. > :25:45.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:46. > :25:47.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:48. > :25:50.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:51. > :25:57.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:58. > :26:00.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:01. > :26:06.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:07. > :26:12.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:13. > :26:16.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:17. > :26:20.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:21. > :26:27.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:28. > :26:34.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:35. > :26:38.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:39. > :26:44.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:45. > :26:50.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:51. > :26:55.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:56. > :27:00.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:01. > :27:04.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:05. > :27:07.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:08. > :27:12.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:13. > :27:15.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:16. > :27:19.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:20. > :27:24.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:25. > :27:28.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:29. > :27:32.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:33. > :27:39.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:40. > :27:44.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:45. > :27:50.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:51. > :28:10.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:11. > :28:14.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:15. > :28:16.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:17. > :28:18.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:19. > :28:20.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:21. > :28:22.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:23. > :28:25.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:26. > :28:27.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:28. > :28:32.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:33. > :28:38.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:39. > :28:43.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:44. > :28:47.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:48. > :28:49.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:50. > :28:52.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:53. > :28:55.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:56. > :28:57.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:58. > :29:02.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:03. > :29:04.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:05. > :29:09.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:10. > :29:11.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:12. > :29:13.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:14. > :29:15.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:16. > :29:19.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:20. > :29:25.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:26. > :29:27.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:28. > :29:33.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:34. > :29:35.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:36. > :29:40.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:41. > :29:45.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:46. > :29:50.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:51. > :29:55.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:56. > :30:02.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:03. > :30:06.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:07. > :30:10.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:11. > :30:15.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:16. > :30:19.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:20. > :30:24.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:25. > :30:33.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:34. > :30:40.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:41. > :30:47.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:48. > :30:55.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:56. > :30:59.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:31:00. > :31:04.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:05. > :31:09.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:10. > :31:16.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:17. > :31:23.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:24. > :31:26.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:27. > :31:30.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:31. > :31:36.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:37. > :31:43.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:44. > :31:47.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:48. > :31:51.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:52. > :31:59.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:32:00. > :32:04.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:05. > :32:09.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:10. > :32:17.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:18. > :32:22.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:23. > :32:28.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:29. > :32:32.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:33. > :32:37.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:38. > :32:41.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:42. > :32:46.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:47. > :32:51.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:52. > :32:55.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:56. > :33:01.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:02. > :33:06.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:07. > :33:14.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:15. > :33:18.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:19. > :33:25.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:26. > :33:35.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:36. > :33:39.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:40. > :33:44.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:45. > :33:50.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:51. > :33:56.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:57. > :34:08.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:09. > :34:11.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:12. > :34:16.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:17. > :34:26.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:27. > :34:31.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:32. > :34:36.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:37. > :34:41.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:42. > :34:47.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:48. > :34:53.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:54. > :34:59.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:35:00. > :35:04.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:05. > :35:08.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:09. > :35:12.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:13. > :35:16.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:17. > :35:22.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:23. > :35:28.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:29. > :35:30.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:31. > :35:36.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:37. > :35:40.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:41. > :35:44.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:45. > :35:48.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:49. > :35:53.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:54. > :36:00.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:01. > :36:04.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:05. > :36:08.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:09. > :36:16.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:17. > :36:23.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:24. > :36:27.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:28. > :36:30.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:31. > :36:34.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:35. > :36:40.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:41. > :36:45.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:46. > :36:50.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:51. > :36:54.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:55. > :36:58.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:59. > :37:01.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:02. > :37:05.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:06. > :37:08.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:09. > :37:16.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:17. > :37:21.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:22. > :37:26.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:27. > :37:29.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:30. > :37:35.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:36. > :37:40.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:41. > :37:43.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:44. > :37:51.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:52. > :38:03.Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the glorious West
:38:04. > :38:08.A slightly unusual programme from us today.
:38:09. > :38:11.We're not talking about Brexit in any shape or
:38:12. > :38:14.We are discussing education, education and then education.
:38:15. > :38:16.We are at the University of the West of
:38:17. > :38:19.England where there are 28,000 students studying.
:38:20. > :38:24.Our first discussion is about school funding.
:38:25. > :38:29.Some schools will get more money, others less.
:38:30. > :38:35.But they are all saying it's simply not enough.
:38:36. > :38:42.Schools across the West say they are under pressure.
:38:43. > :38:44.The Government is introducing a new system of funding
:38:45. > :38:56.While this class learns about Dickens, the headteacher
:38:57. > :39:00.is getting ready for financial hard times.
:39:01. > :39:08.Over 20,000 secondary school students will lose as a result of
:39:09. > :39:13.When you consider that as a school we sit in
:39:14. > :39:15.one of the lowest funded counties, to be losing
:39:16. > :39:17.2.5%, that simply takes the
:39:18. > :39:30.meaning out of the term fair when associated with fairer funding.
:39:31. > :39:31.The new formula is only part of the problem.
:39:32. > :39:34.Even schools which gain under the new proposal are worried
:39:35. > :39:37.because rising costs will be more than the increased funding.
:39:38. > :39:39.We've been looking at all the usual strategies that other schools have
:39:40. > :39:42.done, looking at cutting support staff significantly,
:39:43. > :39:45.absence of development projects, maintenance is cut to the bare
:39:46. > :39:50.minimum for safeguarding health and safety but nothing more than that.
:39:51. > :39:53.The most painful cut, a reduction in teaching time at A-level.
:39:54. > :40:03.We are reducing, for example, five hours for
:40:04. > :40:06.A-level teaching per week, to four hours per subject.
:40:07. > :40:11.Nine in ten schools in the south-west who responded to a
:40:12. > :40:14.survey by a leading headteachers' association said they too had cut
:40:15. > :40:16.Equipment, maintenance, special needs and
:40:17. > :40:18.mental health support were amongst the cuts.
:40:19. > :40:20.The Government insists it is listening.
:40:21. > :40:22.Schools Minister Nick Gibb recently visited Swindon,
:40:23. > :40:26.saying they are keeping funding up while tackling the deficit.
:40:27. > :40:30.We have protected school funding in real
:40:31. > :40:33.terms, we're spending ?40 billion on school funding,
:40:34. > :40:36.this is the highest ever amount that we've spent in this
:40:37. > :40:39.country on our school system, and it's increasing.
:40:40. > :40:42.But for many there's still too little money in the
:40:43. > :40:48.Unions and even the Commons Public Accounts Committee say major
:40:49. > :40:56.That's something Simon and Terry know all
:40:57. > :40:59.about, recently made redundant from their jobs in drama and PE.
:41:00. > :41:07.Nobody ever has a job for life but I felt after 30
:41:08. > :41:10.years of loyalty to one establishment it was very difficult
:41:11. > :41:19.And experienced teachers are often the first to go.
:41:20. > :41:22.I don't think it was any surprise that it was the three of us who were
:41:23. > :41:24.top of the pay scale who were targeted.
:41:25. > :41:26.They say 2.6 teachers needed to go, but 2.6
:41:27. > :41:31.their career, and 2.6 teachers at the top of the scale are two
:41:32. > :41:42.Cuts in subjects were also happening too.
:41:43. > :41:45.Seven out of ten Southwest schools who replied to the survey said they
:41:46. > :41:50.Design, German, drama, music, were the most common GCSEs to go.
:41:51. > :41:52.Schools tried to protect core subjects like
:41:53. > :41:58.The problem is many now say they can't make their
:41:59. > :42:03.We've come inside to Future Space here at the
:42:04. > :42:06.It is a very funky building full of cool
:42:07. > :42:08.and trendy people, and now of
:42:09. > :42:12.Let me introduce you to our guests this
:42:13. > :42:23.They are Sally Apps, principal of the Bristol Metropolitan
:42:24. > :42:25.Academy, in Fishponds, in Bristol, Steve West,
:42:26. > :42:33.the University of the West of England, Robin Head, of the National
:42:34. > :42:36.Union of Teachers in Somerset, and Laura Mayes, the Conservative
:42:37. > :42:37.cabinet member for Education on Wiltshire council.
:42:38. > :42:45.Is your school going to lose money and if so how much?
:42:46. > :42:48.We can't be entirely sure because we keep
:42:49. > :42:50.getting different calculations but it is going to lose out.
:42:51. > :42:53.Our federation of 14 schools will take a
:42:54. > :42:57.Our school accounts for half of that drop.
:42:58. > :42:59.But you've been a successful academy, you are
:43:00. > :43:05.Yes, we have a high deprivation index, we have students
:43:06. > :43:07.from a range of different backgrounds, lots of students who
:43:08. > :43:09.have English as an additional language.
:43:10. > :43:13.And we've gone from the bottom of the city in terms of
:43:14. > :43:15.progress, to the top, in the last seven years.
:43:16. > :43:18.And do you think having a cut to your income threatens that?
:43:19. > :43:22.It makes life very difficult for school leavers who are
:43:23. > :43:25.There is not much fat in the system now.
:43:26. > :43:27.We've already had to do a lot of cutting,
:43:28. > :43:29.a lot of rethinking, had to be quite creative
:43:30. > :43:33.Give me an example of what you may have to reduce.
:43:34. > :43:35.It is difficult to know because we will look at
:43:36. > :43:38.everything, we look at every line of the budget and work out how
:43:39. > :43:41.Within the federation we look at procuring
:43:42. > :43:43.things together for example, sharing resources between us.
:43:44. > :43:46.We make sure that there is no fat in terms of
:43:47. > :43:50.We make sure that our staffing is lean but
:43:51. > :43:52.effective, and that it meets the needs of the kids.
:43:53. > :43:56.OK, let's go to Robin Head from the union.
:43:57. > :43:58.The Government says it's spending more money
:43:59. > :44:08.So they say but we would say that is profoundly
:44:09. > :44:10.dishonest in regard to a
:44:11. > :44:12.lot of those costs that the Government say
:44:13. > :44:19.have been upped in terms of teacher pension payments, which the employer
:44:20. > :44:23.has to pay, apprenticeship levy, for all the staff in the school,
:44:24. > :44:27.which means a lot of that money has disappeared into those kinds of
:44:28. > :44:30.They have also been able to drag out 300...
:44:31. > :44:33.You can't say how much more, you have to
:44:34. > :44:37.The need is there to be met for all students in the
:44:38. > :44:41.But the Government is moving money from inner city schools
:44:42. > :44:43.to country areas where they have been traditionally underfunded so
:44:44. > :44:47.you should be celebrating that in Wiltshire, shouldn't you?
:44:48. > :44:52.You would think that, and I am very proud of
:44:53. > :44:57.our schools in Wiltshire, we are doing a brilliant job, but for
:44:58. > :45:00.instance, the pupil funding for a child on Wiltshire is ?5,200
:45:01. > :45:02.a year and in a London school it's ?12,000
:45:03. > :45:04.per year and the difference there is extraordinary.
:45:05. > :45:07.And you're right in saying the Government are
:45:08. > :45:10.saying that there's more money in the system but the disparity
:45:11. > :45:12.between those two in my mind is patently
:45:13. > :45:18.And even though they put in this new formula
:45:19. > :45:22.Wiltshire schools should have more money taken away from the
:45:23. > :45:25.academy like the ones that Sally runs?
:45:26. > :45:31.I think there should be more money in the pot.
:45:32. > :45:36.Like you say, it's got to be based on need.
:45:37. > :45:39.I'm a great believer in things being lean and not fat
:45:40. > :45:41.and so forth but Wiltshire is the seventh lowest
:45:42. > :45:42.funded authority in
:45:43. > :45:48.So the new formula that has come in has meant
:45:49. > :45:52.that a few schools have got a slight rise, but as Robin says,
:45:53. > :45:54.huge amounts of extra costs are included
:45:55. > :45:57.in that, so the real rise is very small,
:45:58. > :45:58.yet 29 of my schools are
:45:59. > :46:04.OK, I should just tell you that we did try very hard to get
:46:05. > :46:05.someone from the Government on this
:46:06. > :46:08.programme to talk about that but we couldn't find
:46:09. > :46:10.a Conservative MP to come on, or an Education Minister,
:46:11. > :46:18.Steve West, from UWE, just give me your take on this.
:46:19. > :46:21.Are you saying schools are underfunded?
:46:22. > :46:24.If you look round here education seems to
:46:25. > :46:26.Yes, universities are pretty well funded
:46:27. > :46:29.now, but in schools, the way I look at this,
:46:30. > :46:33.this is about the UK's future, about developing future
:46:34. > :46:41.generations to add to our economic power in a global knowledge economy.
:46:42. > :46:44.If we do not get schools funded correctly we will not be able to
:46:45. > :46:47.take our place globally, so this is fundamental to me.
:46:48. > :46:49.This is about getting the right sort of schooling
:46:50. > :46:52.at all levels to give people opportunity for a future which is
:46:53. > :46:56.What I can tell you is all of the growth is going to
:46:57. > :46:59.be in high-tech industries and we need to prepare young people for
:47:00. > :47:14.If schools are underfunded the platform just isn't there to give
:47:15. > :47:19.What the Government might tell you is that in
:47:20. > :47:22.the UK our schools are better funded than France, Italy and Japan, for
:47:23. > :47:25.Well, we want to be the global player.
:47:26. > :47:27.They've mentioned three economies they are, there are a lot
:47:28. > :47:30.more economies that are putting a lot more into schools than we
:47:31. > :47:33.I would argue with the Government if you want a
:47:34. > :47:36.bright future then start getting some of the fundamentals right,
:47:37. > :47:39.because at the moment my concern is we have huge educational
:47:40. > :47:44.inequalities across our cities and in crucial areas,
:47:45. > :47:47.and we've really got a problem, and while some of that
:47:48. > :47:49.can be solved by being more efficient, more effective,
:47:50. > :47:51.multi-academy type approach, where we are joining schools
:47:52. > :47:52.together to get those efficiencies, it's not
:47:53. > :47:58.You run a school where there is high levels of deprivation and you've
:47:59. > :48:01.And of course if you increase public spending you've got
:48:02. > :48:05.to increase taxation, how would that go down with your parents?
:48:06. > :48:09.I think it's true for most parents if you
:48:10. > :48:12.ask them what their priorities would be where the taxes are spent they
:48:13. > :48:15.would say education of their children is high on that list.
:48:16. > :48:20.If it is going into something where you
:48:21. > :48:24.are giving a better service to their children there are few who
:48:25. > :48:29.What about this debate between country schools and inner city
:48:30. > :48:31.schools, you are losing money so country schools can get
:48:32. > :48:35.No, I think honestly to talk about winners
:48:36. > :48:37.and losers in this system is a misnomer.
:48:38. > :48:46.We can see it is coming from one place and
:48:47. > :48:49.going to another but even those schools that are gaining are looking
:48:50. > :48:53.at what they are gaining and saying, this does not feel like what I
:48:54. > :48:57.Sally and the teachers in her school have worked
:48:58. > :48:58.really hard to turn the fortunes of academic achievement
:48:59. > :49:03.Why would you kneecap that by taking large amounts of money
:49:04. > :49:05.away from that to thinly spread through country
:49:06. > :49:15.It's not about taxing the ordinary people in the street.
:49:16. > :49:18.There's a lot of people out there who don't pay
:49:19. > :49:20.That's a different argument for a different
:49:21. > :49:24.But there is also ?320 million being identified for grammar
:49:25. > :49:27.Hang on, we spend ?80 billion per year on
:49:28. > :49:30.300 million quid is neither here nor there.
:49:31. > :49:32.No, but at the same time it's about what you
:49:33. > :49:39.Where it has been going recently is to uncalculated pension costs,
:49:40. > :49:42.NI costs, apprenticeship levies which schools now have to fund, and
:49:43. > :49:46.Laura, you are a Conservative, they wouldn't come in person
:49:47. > :49:49.to defend this, so what have you got say?
:49:50. > :49:53.I'm in violent agreement and I'm not happy
:49:54. > :49:56.with the way things are going educationally in the country.
:49:57. > :49:58.That is one of the reasons I was pleased
:49:59. > :50:06.to have this opportunity to speak out.
:50:07. > :50:09.I agree with you about the grammar schools, we've made it very
:50:10. > :50:12.clear to Justine Greening that it would be an inappropriate policy for
:50:13. > :50:15.So you're not going to defend the Government's position?
:50:16. > :50:17.No, I'm not going to defend the Government on
:50:18. > :50:20.these issues, and particularly this issue of the fairer funding.
:50:21. > :50:22.There are 40 local authorities, I put my
:50:23. > :50:24.name to a letter, to the Prime Minister
:50:25. > :50:26.recently to say that the
:50:27. > :50:29.new funding formula is still incredibly unfair.
:50:30. > :50:31.And because of the way they're capping it it would take
:50:32. > :50:34.ten years for us to make up that space.
:50:35. > :50:41.Successive governments have encouraged more people to go to
:50:42. > :50:45.university but the south-west has fallen behind.
:50:46. > :50:57.Fewer people in this region applied to university than in
:50:58. > :51:00.other parts of the country and in south Bristol the rates are the
:51:01. > :51:02.second worst anywhere in the United Kingdom.
:51:03. > :51:06.Bristol and the south-west are prosperous but there are some deep
:51:07. > :51:09.divisions, the side of the city is less well off, and in educational
:51:10. > :51:11.terms it's a struggle for a long time.
:51:12. > :51:13.Fewer than one in five children growing up around here
:51:14. > :51:19.The contrast with next-door North omerset is
:51:20. > :51:24.Overall, the entire region is lagging behind.
:51:25. > :51:27.32.4% of 18-year-olds in the south-west applying to university,
:51:28. > :51:30.the lowest rate of any region, nationally the average is at 37%,
:51:31. > :51:45.with the highest figure, 46%, being in London.
:51:46. > :51:49.It's one of only two in the South Bristol
:51:50. > :51:53.Going on to higher education is encouraged but most pupils don't.
:51:54. > :51:56.I felt as though I didn't need to do it.
:51:57. > :51:59.It seems too daunting and it is really expensive.
:52:00. > :52:01.I thought I would finish my education here and then
:52:02. > :52:08.I didn't feel like university was the best
:52:09. > :52:10.option for me at all because I don't really enjoy school.
:52:11. > :52:22.I would like to go to university but the line of
:52:23. > :52:26.work I'd like to go into within the industry isn't
:52:27. > :52:29.necessary so I feel like it wouldn't be worth spending
:52:30. > :52:34.The school tries to raise aspirations among pupils.
:52:35. > :52:35.Most of whose parents went no further
:52:36. > :52:59.There are relatively high levels of low paid employment.
:53:00. > :53:09.in an apprenticeship. Plenty of interest that this
:53:10. > :53:15.apprenticeship event. The new skills Academy offers for occasional
:53:16. > :53:19.training which may be best for some. There is a sense of low aspiration
:53:20. > :53:24.in this part of the city compared to other parts of the city, but the
:53:25. > :53:27.debate has been the wrong debate about participation in higher
:53:28. > :53:31.education, it has been a debate which focuses on going to
:53:32. > :53:36.university. For many individuals that will not be the right place for
:53:37. > :53:43.them to go to. To explain why she went to university is this person.
:53:44. > :53:47.The big unknown is the fear of university, how I would afford to
:53:48. > :53:54.pay for that and how much debt I would be in. That led me to think I
:53:55. > :53:58.would go for an apprenticeship and my employer would pay for my course.
:53:59. > :54:01.Plenty on offer for those who want to follow in her footsteps but many
:54:02. > :54:07.believe Britain will need to raise its game, especially post Frexit.
:54:08. > :54:17.The Government has a key role. They have got to get to grips. --
:54:18. > :54:25.especially post Brexit. The report card for her constituency
:54:26. > :54:30.and the entire region, could, probably must, do better.
:54:31. > :54:38.Let us pick up on some of those issues. Steve West, you are vice
:54:39. > :54:43.Chancellor here at UWE, your route into higher education was not
:54:44. > :54:47.typical. I feel is most of my GCSEs and A-levels and I read to them then
:54:48. > :54:51.I went to further education then I did a part-time degree. Not the
:54:52. > :55:00.classic approach to becoming vice Chancellor in a university. And you
:55:01. > :55:04.are a surgeon as well. Yes, so I worked hard, but fairly late. What
:55:05. > :55:09.would you say to those students in South Bristol who are not aspiring
:55:10. > :55:12.to become students? The first thing is believe in yourself. There is
:55:13. > :55:16.nothing you cannot do. But you need to make sure that you have the
:55:17. > :55:20.ambition and that you are being signposted. For as we work in the
:55:21. > :55:34.South Bristol school is very high. We sent students, outreach staff
:55:35. > :55:36.then, to try and raise aspiration. This is about giving young people
:55:37. > :55:37.choices. It is about believing in them. Every single child has a
:55:38. > :55:41.talent. What we have to do is find talent. What we have to do is find
:55:42. > :55:43.it and work with it. That is important. How many of you children
:55:44. > :55:48.would aspire to go to university from a school in the deprived area
:55:49. > :55:53.that you run? Many students aspire to university. They all aspire to
:55:54. > :55:58.The number of things. We cannot The number of things. We cannot
:55:59. > :56:03.ignore the layers of deprivation, and the ways in which being deprived
:56:04. > :56:07.in terms of your experience, you opportunity, what that means in
:56:08. > :56:12.terms of what you can access, what you believe in yourself, sometimes
:56:13. > :56:15.the greatest enemy of that are adults in your life who do not
:56:16. > :56:20.believe you can do that, sometimes that is your teachers. It is
:56:21. > :56:23.important that teachers and support staff have a strong sense that
:56:24. > :56:27.students can go to university and help them to get there and do not
:56:28. > :56:31.have a limit on the aspiration. Do you accept that criticism of
:56:32. > :56:35.teachers? I do not think it is teachers necessarily, I think it is
:56:36. > :56:38.that is stratified in terms of that is stratified in terms of
:56:39. > :56:42.made to jump through hoops which made to jump through hoops which
:56:43. > :56:48.require them to teach in a certain way, and deliver exam results, but
:56:49. > :56:54.mitigates against the aspiration of white working-class boys and ethnic
:56:55. > :56:59.minorities. That knocks on to the aspiration about going forward. My
:57:00. > :57:04.experience as the reality is that that kind of target driven culture
:57:05. > :57:08.means that we absolutely have to have those high expectations. Maybe
:57:09. > :57:13.a new school, but there are statistics in this country which say
:57:14. > :57:16.that a lot of children disappear from school rules just about the
:57:17. > :57:20.time GCSE comes up because those children will hold back the schools
:57:21. > :57:23.disappear from schools, maybe not in disappear from schools, maybe not in
:57:24. > :57:29.your school, but it does happen because of statistics. You need to
:57:30. > :57:36.make the point about whether university is the right thing. What
:57:37. > :57:40.is important is to find the right path. Identify it early, get to do
:57:41. > :57:46.the right course, whether an apprenticeship, a degree, but this
:57:47. > :57:52.idea that 50% of people are meant to go on to university was a false
:57:53. > :57:56.promise. We are doing to giddy apprenticeships, working with
:57:57. > :57:59.further education colleges and business, that is an entire world
:58:00. > :58:04.alongside what we do with the university, and people should not
:58:05. > :58:05.think about universities as being academic and apprenticeships being
:58:06. > :58:09.vocational, in this modern world it vocational, in this modern world it
:58:10. > :58:13.is irrelevant. Our programmes are about ensuring that young people and
:58:14. > :58:16.all the people returning to university can get employment in the
:58:17. > :58:22.right alias. That has to start in schools.
:58:23. > :58:26.There are disillusioned budgets out there who spent ?27,000 plus on a
:58:27. > :58:36.degree and find it is not getting them a job. Everybody has got a
:58:37. > :58:38.degree. In an economy increasingly focusing on high technology
:58:39. > :58:42.environment that is tough. The jobs that are being created are not the
:58:43. > :58:49.middle management jobs anymore. Highly skilled jobs. Then at the
:58:50. > :58:56.other end, the Labour jobs that then require people to reinvent robots
:58:57. > :59:01.that can do it for us. Our -- you are offering 600 courses, there must
:59:02. > :59:06.be some of those that give a few employment opportunities. Our
:59:07. > :59:10.statistics will tell you that over 95% of our students, 96% of our
:59:11. > :59:18.students, six months after graduation are in employment, that
:59:19. > :59:22.is a good statistic. Over 75% are in graduate level jobs. That is an
:59:23. > :59:26.impressive statistic. The reason we get those statistics is because we
:59:27. > :59:30.work hard to make sure that in every degree, no matter what the subject,
:59:31. > :59:36.we are focused on employment, getting them into graduate jobs. The
:59:37. > :59:44.children that you teach and lead, how much would that ?27,000 bill
:59:45. > :59:47.deterrent them? It really does. If you have grown up in poverty the
:59:48. > :59:55.reality of facing more debt is fighting for you and your family.
:59:56. > :59:59.Let us not ignore the fact that job security, to go into a job where you
:00:00. > :00:05.know what you are going to get paid, you are going to actually get it...
:00:06. > :00:11.We need people to do every day work. It needs to be choice. What we need
:00:12. > :00:15.to see is that children understand the choices available. If you want
:00:16. > :00:19.florist, whatever it is, as long as florist, whatever it is, as long as
:00:20. > :00:23.you know how to do it and know that you have a choice that is imported.
:00:24. > :00:27.of choice. We have to leave it of choice. We have to leave it
:00:28. > :00:38.there. On that note, that is really had to leave things for this week.
:00:39. > :00:40.My thanks to everybody here at UWE for keeping us occupied and
:00:41. > :00:51.entertain this week. My thanks also to Steve West, Sally Apps, Laura,
:00:52. > :01:04.and Robin. We are back in two weeks. In the meantime you can
:01:05. > :01:06.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:07. > :01:10.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:11. > :01:13.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:14. > :01:25.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:26. > :01:29.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:30. > :01:39.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:40. > :01:44.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:45. > :01:50.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:51. > :01:55.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:56. > :02:02.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:03. > :02:12.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:13. > :02:15.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:16. > :02:21.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:22. > :02:26.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:27. > :02:29.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:30. > :02:36.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:37. > :02:41.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:42. > :02:44.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:45. > :02:49.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:50. > :02:55.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:56. > :03:00.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:01. > :03:03.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:04. > :03:11.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:12. > :03:15.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:16. > :03:21.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:22. > :03:26.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:27. > :03:31.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:32. > :03:37.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:38. > :03:41.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:42. > :03:49.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:50. > :03:53.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:54. > :03:57.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:58. > :04:01.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:02. > :04:10.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:11. > :04:14.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:15. > :04:17.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:18. > :04:23.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:24. > :04:29.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:30. > :04:34.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:35. > :04:38.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:39. > :04:43.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:44. > :04:47.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:48. > :04:51.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:52. > :04:56.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:57. > :05:01.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:02. > :05:07.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:08. > :05:12.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:13. > :05:15.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:16. > :05:20.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:21. > :05:28.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:29. > :05:32.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:33. > :05:37.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:38. > :05:42.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:43. > :05:49.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:50. > :05:54.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:55. > :06:00.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:01. > :06:05.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:06. > :06:10.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:11. > :06:16.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:17. > :06:24.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:25. > :06:31.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:32. > :06:36.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:37. > :06:42.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:43. > :06:49.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:50. > :06:56.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:57. > :07:03.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:04. > :07:08.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:09. > :07:13.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:14. > :07:19.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:20. > :07:23.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:24. > :07:27.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:28. > :07:31.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:32. > :07:37.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:38. > :07:41.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:42. > :07:48.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:49. > :07:53.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:54. > :07:57.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:58. > :08:02.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:03. > :08:06.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:07. > :08:14.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:15. > :08:18.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:19. > :08:23.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:24. > :08:29.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:30. > :08:34.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:35. > :08:36.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:37. > :08:41.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:42. > :08:45.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:46. > :08:50.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:51. > :08:56.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:57. > :08:59.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:00. > :09:05.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:06. > :09:09.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:10. > :09:14.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:15. > :09:17.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:18. > :09:23.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:24. > :09:26.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:27. > :09:31.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:32. > :09:37.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:38. > :09:39.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:40. > :09:46.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:47. > :09:50.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:51. > :09:53.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:54. > :09:58.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:59. > :10:01.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:02. > :10:06.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:07. > :10:11.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:12. > :10:15.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:16. > :10:20.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:21. > :10:24.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:25. > :10:28.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:29. > :10:34.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:35. > :10:38.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:39. > :10:44.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:45. > :10:48.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:49. > :10:54.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:55. > :10:57.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:58. > :11:03.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:04. > :11:07.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:08. > :11:12.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:13. > :11:18.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:19. > :11:23.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:24. > :11:27.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:28. > :11:31.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:32. > :11:35.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:36. > :11:41.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:42. > :11:45.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:46. > :11:52.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:53. > :11:55.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:56. > :12:02.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:03. > :12:08.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:09. > :12:14.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:15. > :12:17.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:18. > :12:25.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:26. > :12:31.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:32. > :12:36.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:37. > :12:42.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:43. > :12:46.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:47. > :12:49.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:50. > :12:54.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:55. > :12:58.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:59. > :13:02.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:03. > :13:08.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:09. > :13:13.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:14. > :13:17.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:18. > :13:21.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:22. > :13:27.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:28. > :13:31.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:32. > :13:36.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:37. > :13:43.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:44. > :13:48.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:49. > :13:52.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:53. > :14:20.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:21. > :14:23.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:24. > :14:27.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:28. > :14:52.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"
:14:53. > :14:56.I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.