:00:39. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.
:00:45. > :00:49.With just a month to go until the general election,
:00:50. > :00:52.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help
:00:53. > :00:57.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,
:00:58. > :01:00.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got
:01:01. > :01:07.But is there still really all to play for?
:01:08. > :01:11.And tonight we will find out who is the next
:01:12. > :01:15.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -
:01:16. > :01:25.of England's first ever Metro mayor. ended with a hack attack
:01:26. > :01:28.What can we expect from the new man in the new role?
:01:29. > :01:32.elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next
:01:33. > :01:39.month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...
:01:40. > :01:42.And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready
:01:43. > :01:45.to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic
:01:46. > :01:48.focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,
:01:49. > :01:51.and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May
:01:52. > :01:57.It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:58. > :02:03.So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental
:02:04. > :02:06.health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,
:02:07. > :02:12.and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health
:02:13. > :02:15.treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be
:02:16. > :02:18.Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking
:02:19. > :02:25.There is a lot of new money going into it.
:02:26. > :02:29.In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion
:02:30. > :02:32.Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it
:02:33. > :02:36.No, it is new money going into the NHS
:02:37. > :02:43.It's not just of course money, it's having the people
:02:44. > :02:45.who deliver these jobs, which is why we need
:02:46. > :02:50.Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health
:02:51. > :02:53.This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,
:02:54. > :03:02.promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.
:03:03. > :03:07.Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the
:03:08. > :03:12.campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the
:03:13. > :03:16.campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin
:03:17. > :03:21.air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,
:03:22. > :03:26.and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no
:03:27. > :03:33.additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We
:03:34. > :03:37.know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap
:03:38. > :03:41.which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not
:03:42. > :03:44.disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the
:03:45. > :03:53.political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,
:03:54. > :03:59.rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce
:04:00. > :04:04.by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the
:04:05. > :04:07.number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are
:04:08. > :04:12.without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.
:04:13. > :04:22.Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage
:04:23. > :04:28.point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is
:04:29. > :04:36.that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but
:04:37. > :04:39.over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the
:04:40. > :04:45.younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is
:04:46. > :04:50.the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery
:04:51. > :04:56.plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,
:04:57. > :05:00.it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income
:05:01. > :05:05.tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average
:05:06. > :05:10.British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than
:05:11. > :05:15.two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end
:05:16. > :05:22.of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS
:05:23. > :05:26.and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance
:05:27. > :05:31.system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the
:05:32. > :05:36.former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said
:05:37. > :05:39.clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the
:05:40. > :05:46.first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.
:05:47. > :05:49.Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on
:05:50. > :05:54.average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people
:05:55. > :06:01.who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have
:06:02. > :06:05.been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are
:06:06. > :06:09.going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health
:06:10. > :06:16.care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen
:06:17. > :06:20.by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?
:06:21. > :06:24.Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax
:06:25. > :06:30.threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition
:06:31. > :06:36.increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by
:06:37. > :06:41.about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose
:06:42. > :06:45.that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask
:06:46. > :06:49.ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the
:06:50. > :06:54.average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that
:06:55. > :07:00.when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps
:07:01. > :07:05.suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two
:07:06. > :07:10.cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a
:07:11. > :07:14.very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told
:07:15. > :07:19.that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They
:07:20. > :07:23.then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent
:07:24. > :07:27.waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump
:07:28. > :07:31.the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to
:07:32. > :07:38.interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on
:07:39. > :07:42.time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance
:07:43. > :07:46.to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to
:07:47. > :07:52.double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do
:07:53. > :07:57.you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on
:07:58. > :08:01.average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country
:08:02. > :08:06.are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the
:08:07. > :08:13.moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it
:08:14. > :08:18.as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government
:08:19. > :08:22.not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the
:08:23. > :08:25.stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these
:08:26. > :08:29.critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the
:08:30. > :08:33.Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to
:08:34. > :08:34.provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining
:08:35. > :08:39.us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious
:08:40. > :08:42.to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,
:08:43. > :08:47.whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say
:08:48. > :08:49.there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a
:08:50. > :08:52.landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set
:08:53. > :08:54.of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give
:08:55. > :08:57.us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with
:08:58. > :09:01.a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock
:09:02. > :09:04.on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.
:09:05. > :09:10.Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local
:09:11. > :09:14.elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing
:09:15. > :09:17.from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,
:09:18. > :09:20.I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm
:09:21. > :09:23.going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered
:09:24. > :09:25.successes for the Tories. But with most councils
:09:26. > :09:27.only getting started, there was plenty of action
:09:28. > :09:33.still to come. It's not quite the night
:09:34. > :09:35.of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news
:09:36. > :09:37.in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold
:09:38. > :09:40.Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,
:09:41. > :09:47.four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward
:09:48. > :09:50.and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being
:09:51. > :09:54.in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself
:09:55. > :10:01.for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,
:10:02. > :10:06.as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,
:10:07. > :10:10.there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people
:10:11. > :10:13.think the election's just I think leave it
:10:14. > :10:16.like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.
:10:17. > :10:19.This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here
:10:20. > :10:23.for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed
:10:24. > :10:28.for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip
:10:29. > :10:40.winning a single seat. The joke going around
:10:41. > :10:46.Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives
:10:47. > :10:48.is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand
:10:49. > :10:52.and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably
:10:53. > :10:57.going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts
:10:58. > :11:00.backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be
:11:01. > :11:03.totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people
:11:04. > :11:06.in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,
:11:07. > :11:09.but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.
:11:10. > :11:13.Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones
:11:14. > :11:17.putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing
:11:18. > :11:20.their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats
:11:21. > :11:24.and seven councils. If the result is what these
:11:25. > :11:28.results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word
:11:29. > :11:33.for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics
:11:34. > :11:41.- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?
:11:42. > :11:45.Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.
:11:46. > :11:47.We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another
:11:48. > :11:50.five years of this. How's it been for you today?
:11:51. > :11:53.Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,
:11:54. > :11:55.I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're
:11:56. > :12:00.disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,
:12:01. > :12:02.but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be
:12:03. > :12:07.wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,
:12:08. > :12:10.not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,
:12:11. > :12:18.the control of a whole council came The section of England
:12:19. > :12:27.in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England
:12:28. > :12:31.that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,
:12:32. > :12:34.do you just have election results The answer is if that's still
:12:35. > :12:40.happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.
:12:41. > :12:42.Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much
:12:43. > :12:46.but I have one here. With the introduction
:12:47. > :12:50.of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham
:12:51. > :12:53.became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came
:12:54. > :12:55.to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second
:12:56. > :13:02.because I've got some I used to present news,
:13:03. > :13:05.as you probably know. I used to present BBC
:13:06. > :13:07.Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,
:13:08. > :13:09.ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -
:13:10. > :13:16.presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day
:13:17. > :13:22.at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government
:13:23. > :13:27.was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives
:13:28. > :13:29.with their best local So another election results
:13:30. > :13:34.day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it
:13:35. > :13:40.all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.
:13:41. > :13:52.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,
:13:53. > :13:54.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes
:13:55. > :14:06.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.
:14:07. > :14:08.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,
:14:09. > :14:10.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained
:14:11. > :14:15.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,
:14:16. > :14:21.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.
:14:22. > :14:23.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing
:14:24. > :14:25.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -
:14:26. > :14:28.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.
:14:29. > :14:32.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,
:14:33. > :14:38.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party
:14:39. > :14:40.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,
:14:41. > :14:47.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.
:14:48. > :14:50.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.
:14:51. > :14:54.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.
:14:55. > :15:07.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the
:15:08. > :15:12.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May
:15:13. > :15:15.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning
:15:16. > :15:19.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local
:15:20. > :15:23.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win
:15:24. > :15:27.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course
:15:28. > :15:31.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were
:15:32. > :15:36.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas
:15:37. > :15:43.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point
:15:44. > :15:45.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a
:15:46. > :15:47.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in
:15:48. > :15:52.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative
:15:53. > :15:58.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that
:15:59. > :16:02.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about
:16:03. > :16:06.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but
:16:07. > :16:09.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves
:16:10. > :16:14.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The
:16:15. > :16:18.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is
:16:19. > :16:22.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most
:16:23. > :16:27.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep
:16:28. > :16:31.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary
:16:32. > :16:35.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election
:16:36. > :16:39.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I
:16:40. > :16:45.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the
:16:46. > :16:50.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both
:16:51. > :16:53.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they
:16:54. > :16:58.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen
:16:59. > :17:02.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.
:17:03. > :17:05.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local
:17:06. > :17:12.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in
:17:13. > :17:16.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.
:17:17. > :17:22.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --
:17:23. > :17:26.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition
:17:27. > :17:29.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of
:17:30. > :17:34.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth
:17:35. > :17:38.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip
:17:39. > :17:42.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to
:17:43. > :17:45.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,
:17:46. > :17:51.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the
:17:52. > :17:57.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the
:17:58. > :18:01.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we
:18:02. > :18:06.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in
:18:07. > :18:11.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper
:18:12. > :18:14.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is
:18:15. > :18:18.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum
:18:19. > :18:23.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,
:18:24. > :18:30.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do
:18:31. > :18:34.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially
:18:35. > :18:37.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional
:18:38. > :18:42.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been
:18:43. > :18:45.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively
:18:46. > :18:51.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south
:18:52. > :18:54.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly
:18:55. > :18:59.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the
:19:00. > :19:03.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they
:19:04. > :19:08.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the
:19:09. > :19:18.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa
:19:19. > :19:22.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote
:19:23. > :19:30.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining
:19:31. > :19:34.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I
:19:35. > :19:39.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced
:19:40. > :19:46.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the
:19:47. > :19:50.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.
:19:51. > :19:55.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the
:19:56. > :20:00.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,
:20:01. > :20:05.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of
:20:06. > :20:14.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue
:20:15. > :20:20.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the
:20:21. > :20:25.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like
:20:26. > :20:27.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British
:20:28. > :20:31.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact
:20:32. > :20:37.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not
:20:38. > :20:40.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,
:20:41. > :20:45.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,
:20:46. > :20:49.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad
:20:50. > :20:55.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain
:20:56. > :20:59.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like
:21:00. > :21:02.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too
:21:03. > :21:07.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest
:21:08. > :21:11.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has
:21:12. > :21:18.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We
:21:19. > :21:21.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is
:21:22. > :21:26.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a
:21:27. > :21:31.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.
:21:32. > :21:34.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the
:21:35. > :21:37.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been
:21:38. > :21:41.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They
:21:42. > :21:45.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have
:21:46. > :21:50.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a
:21:51. > :21:54.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's
:21:55. > :21:58.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel
:21:59. > :22:01.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job
:22:02. > :22:06.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour
:22:07. > :22:12.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are
:22:13. > :22:16.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has
:22:17. > :22:21.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was
:22:22. > :22:25.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the
:22:26. > :22:28.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off
:22:29. > :22:34.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party
:22:35. > :22:40.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over
:22:41. > :22:43.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David
:22:44. > :22:48.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for
:22:49. > :22:52.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because
:22:53. > :22:55.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to
:22:56. > :23:01.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at
:23:02. > :23:05.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a
:23:06. > :23:07.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a
:23:08. > :23:11.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big
:23:12. > :23:13.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no
:23:14. > :23:16.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -
:23:17. > :23:19.which of course means those earning more than that could
:23:20. > :23:20.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John
:23:21. > :23:30.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone
:23:31. > :23:35.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an
:23:36. > :23:37.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.
:23:38. > :23:42.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more
:23:43. > :23:46.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be
:23:47. > :23:53.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a
:23:54. > :23:56.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.
:23:57. > :24:01.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.
:24:02. > :24:08.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be
:24:09. > :24:12.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.
:24:13. > :24:19.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would
:24:20. > :24:25.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for
:24:26. > :24:29.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners
:24:30. > :24:33.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a
:24:34. > :24:37.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell
:24:38. > :24:44.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%
:24:45. > :24:49.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying
:24:50. > :24:55.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,
:24:56. > :24:58.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's
:24:59. > :25:04.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out
:25:05. > :25:13.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set
:25:14. > :25:16.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he
:25:17. > :25:22.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis
:25:23. > :25:28.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The
:25:29. > :25:33.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was
:25:34. > :25:39.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between
:25:40. > :25:44.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.
:25:45. > :25:48.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their
:25:49. > :25:58.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way
:25:59. > :26:05.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I
:26:06. > :26:09.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is
:26:10. > :26:13.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections
:26:14. > :26:18.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to
:26:19. > :26:22.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle
:26:23. > :26:28.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You
:26:29. > :26:33.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The
:26:34. > :26:37.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an
:26:38. > :26:42.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are
:26:43. > :26:46.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the
:26:47. > :26:50.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a
:26:51. > :26:54.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are
:26:55. > :26:56.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter
:26:57. > :27:04.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took
:27:05. > :27:11.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --
:27:12. > :27:16.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of
:27:17. > :27:21.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm
:27:22. > :27:26.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after
:27:27. > :27:32.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of
:27:33. > :27:36.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all
:27:37. > :27:41.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I
:27:42. > :27:45.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused
:27:46. > :27:50.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies
:27:51. > :27:55.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum
:27:56. > :28:01.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of
:28:02. > :28:04.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and
:28:05. > :28:08.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by
:28:09. > :28:13.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives
:28:14. > :28:20.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the
:28:21. > :28:24.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to
:28:25. > :28:28.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.
:28:29. > :28:32.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy
:28:33. > :28:38.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate
:28:39. > :28:41.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview
:28:42. > :28:45.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped
:28:46. > :28:52.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the
:28:53. > :28:58.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in
:28:59. > :29:00.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into
:29:01. > :29:05.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge
:29:06. > :29:08.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to
:29:09. > :29:12.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed
:29:13. > :29:17.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?
:29:18. > :29:22.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time
:29:23. > :29:28.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy
:29:29. > :29:36.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am
:29:37. > :29:41.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat
:29:42. > :29:46.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He
:29:47. > :29:50.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour
:29:51. > :29:57.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the
:29:58. > :30:01.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my
:30:02. > :30:05.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single
:30:06. > :30:11.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest
:30:12. > :30:15.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that
:30:16. > :30:20.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even
:30:21. > :30:24.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy
:30:25. > :30:31.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum
:30:32. > :30:34.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and
:30:35. > :30:38.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under
:30:39. > :30:41.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,
:30:42. > :30:46.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,
:30:47. > :30:51.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour
:30:52. > :30:53.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on
:30:54. > :30:59.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead
:31:00. > :31:03.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won
:31:04. > :31:10.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more
:31:11. > :31:14.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of
:31:15. > :31:18.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four
:31:19. > :31:23.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see
:31:24. > :31:27.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to
:31:28. > :31:31.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my
:31:32. > :31:35.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And
:31:36. > :31:38.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She
:31:39. > :31:45.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.
:31:46. > :31:50.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary
:31:51. > :32:03.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D
:32:04. > :32:09.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do
:32:10. > :32:13.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living
:32:14. > :32:16.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the
:32:17. > :32:20.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We
:32:21. > :32:23.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you
:32:24. > :32:25.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's
:32:26. > :32:31.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party
:32:32. > :32:34.won its best ever local government performance,
:32:35. > :32:36.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote
:32:37. > :32:39.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously
:32:40. > :32:43.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for
:32:44. > :32:45.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now
:32:46. > :32:47.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,
:32:48. > :32:58.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip
:32:59. > :33:02.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the
:33:03. > :33:08.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't
:33:09. > :33:14.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go
:33:15. > :33:18.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney
:33:19. > :33:22.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from
:33:23. > :33:26.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime
:33:27. > :33:30.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one
:33:31. > :33:36.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really
:33:37. > :33:39.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a
:33:40. > :33:44.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our
:33:45. > :33:49.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the
:33:50. > :33:55.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to
:33:56. > :33:58.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing
:33:59. > :34:02.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their
:34:03. > :34:07.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime
:34:08. > :34:12.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong
:34:13. > :34:18.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back
:34:19. > :34:24.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last
:34:25. > :34:27.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to
:34:28. > :34:30.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British
:34:31. > :34:36.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the
:34:37. > :34:39.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician
:34:40. > :34:43.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for
:34:44. > :34:48.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters
:34:49. > :34:53.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in
:34:54. > :34:56.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.
:34:57. > :35:02.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that
:35:03. > :35:06.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit
:35:07. > :35:12.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the
:35:13. > :35:15.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of
:35:16. > :35:21.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.
:35:22. > :35:25.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap
:35:26. > :35:28.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health
:35:29. > :35:34.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with
:35:35. > :35:39.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of
:35:40. > :35:42.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:43. > :35:46.beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not
:35:47. > :35:52.Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that
:35:53. > :35:57.time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's
:35:58. > :36:00.fault. We have two become more professional than we have been
:36:01. > :36:06.recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or
:36:07. > :36:09.another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very
:36:10. > :36:13.rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other
:36:14. > :36:17.promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not
:36:18. > :36:21.until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not
:36:22. > :36:27.have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this
:36:28. > :36:34.current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most
:36:35. > :36:42.senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --
:36:43. > :36:45.no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I
:36:46. > :36:51.believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is
:36:52. > :37:01.shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital
:37:02. > :37:06.mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto
:37:07. > :37:12.launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but
:37:13. > :37:17.also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity
:37:18. > :37:25.bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies
:37:26. > :37:30.that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.
:37:31. > :37:34.Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory
:37:35. > :37:39.advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that
:37:40. > :37:44.Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?
:37:45. > :37:49.It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and
:37:50. > :37:55.have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.
:37:56. > :37:59.When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.
:38:00. > :38:03.Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.
:38:04. > :38:05.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:06. > :38:08.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:09. > :38:20.Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French
:38:21. > :38:22.Welcome to a live edition of the Sunday Politics
:38:23. > :38:29.In the next 20 minutes we are laying on a feast of political discussion.
:38:30. > :38:34.the election campaigns - who are the old bangers
:38:35. > :38:38.and which parties will cut the mustard on June 8th?
:38:39. > :38:40.I'm joined in the studio by the new Mayor for
:38:41. > :38:53.looks at the aftermath of the Metro Mayor election.
:38:54. > :38:56.Tim Charles Bowles is duly elected as the West of England
:38:57. > :39:05.But straightaway, he's fighting another.
:39:06. > :39:08.Not exactly a case of no rest for the wicked.
:39:09. > :39:12.There never is when you're in any sort of public
:39:13. > :39:17.It has been the same in all my years as a councillor.
:39:18. > :39:22.Keeping fit with the Conservatives is what I call it.
:39:23. > :39:26.It's a fitness regime that seems to work.
:39:27. > :39:29.Outside Bristol, The West has Conservative councils,
:39:30. > :39:31.optimistic Parliamentary candidates and now a Conservative
:39:32. > :39:36.The Tories believe that makes it easier to get
:39:37. > :39:41.The fact that we can go to the Government,
:39:42. > :39:43.which is a Conservative Government and hopefully will remain
:39:44. > :39:46.a Conservative Government, we can do that.
:39:47. > :39:48.That helps us, when you are dealing with your own party.
:39:49. > :40:04.We are all singing from the same song sheet on the doors
:40:05. > :40:06.making our voices heard for the West of England.
:40:07. > :40:07.Political opponents see it differently.
:40:08. > :40:09.Labour's Lesley Mansell came within an electoral whisker
:40:10. > :40:12.She says Conservative councils rarely get special treatment
:40:13. > :40:15.It hasn't worked for Banes and South Gloucestershire.
:40:16. > :40:17.There's been a 37% cut, we've got no council
:40:18. > :40:19.housing being built, we've got congestion costing us
:40:20. > :40:34.The fact they are in the same party it should be easier.
:40:35. > :40:36.This is what you really call a political party.
:40:37. > :40:38.Despite coming third, the Lib Dems are
:40:39. > :40:41.They're definitely not celebrating the result.
:40:42. > :40:43.It's effectively Conservative hegemony across the West of England
:40:44. > :40:45.which may be an issue for the city of Bristol.
:40:46. > :40:48.We have to watch very carefully to make sure that Tim
:40:49. > :40:51.Bowles and his Conservative friends aren't prioritising the rural areas
:40:52. > :41:00.We also need to make sure that they do deliver on some of the
:41:01. > :41:03.promises they made for the West Country in terms of extra
:41:04. > :41:10.The Centre for Cities was instrumental promoting
:41:11. > :41:16.When you are thinking about transport, or if you're
:41:17. > :41:23.there isn't much difference between
:41:24. > :41:25.the Tories and Labour and the
:41:26. > :41:29.They might quibble about some of the issues at the margins
:41:30. > :41:36.but really all of them in the West
:41:37. > :41:38.of England recognise the need to build
:41:39. > :41:40.more housing, they need to address
:41:41. > :41:43.congestion, they need to have a
:41:44. > :41:44.better school system that enables firms to
:41:45. > :41:54.in the middle of another election campaign.
:41:55. > :42:03.Tim Bowles is in the studio. Metro Mayor from tomorrow morning.
:42:04. > :42:07.Congratulations. What are your transport plans? I have been
:42:08. > :42:10.speaking to various people throughout the region. The job has
:42:11. > :42:16.started. Officially it is 11 o'clock tomorrow morning but we have already
:42:17. > :42:22.started. I have been talking to people across the region in terms of
:42:23. > :42:27.looking at short-term targets that we can attract in terms of hotspots.
:42:28. > :42:30.We talked about this last week in terms of pinch points in the ring
:42:31. > :42:33.parts of the region. We will also be parts of the region. We will also be
:42:34. > :42:45.talking even more with ministers about projects like the M4 junction
:42:46. > :42:52.18 and also addressing challenges around Bath and congestion there.
:42:53. > :42:57.You see this might be for the benefit of the entire region, but it
:42:58. > :43:05.will mostly affect South Gloucestershire, your patch. The
:43:06. > :43:09.ring road feeds traffic in and out of Bristol. It will allow us with
:43:10. > :43:14.that junction to take traffic away from rules that are going through
:43:15. > :43:17.currently access the M4. It is a currently access the M4. It is a
:43:18. > :43:21.junction that will benefit everybody. Picking up on the point
:43:22. > :43:29.that Stephen Williams made in his film, but you might give precedence
:43:30. > :43:38.to South Gloucestershire and the other Conservative controlled area,
:43:39. > :43:41.Banes. I said throughout that I would be representing everybody in
:43:42. > :43:44.the region. But you made it clear that Bristol would not get the
:43:45. > :43:48.lion's share. Very clear that everybody would be looking at this
:43:49. > :43:53.as a region and finding ways that would benefit everybody. Projects
:43:54. > :43:56.like the M4 junction will help Bristol. Things like the sun and
:43:57. > :44:03.mingled in Bristol will also help other parts of the region. Those
:44:04. > :44:08.transport strategic rules will help everybody. Let us take Cribbs
:44:09. > :44:14.Causeway, the shopping centre, they want to expand it, it is then saved
:44:15. > :44:19.Gloucestershire. As the will decide Gloucestershire. Loss of trade and
:44:20. > :44:22.other shops, most likely to come from Bristol, Bristol gets no
:44:23. > :44:26.benefits, South Gloucestershire gets the benefit, Bristol gets
:44:27. > :44:31.disadvantages. I will use meter over? I will go back to my mantra.
:44:32. > :44:35.This is about regional economy. Cribbs Causeway is an important part
:44:36. > :44:43.of the visitor economy for the entire region, as indeed is M4, as
:44:44. > :44:47.indeed is Bristol. Each of those aspects will help drive the regional
:44:48. > :44:53.economies. We will be looking at Cribbs Causeway in the see me that
:44:54. > :44:56.we look at visitor economy and Bath and Bristol. It is about benefits
:44:57. > :45:00.for everybody across the region. Bristol is Labour run with our
:45:01. > :45:06.Labour mayor. The other two Labour mayor. The other two
:45:07. > :45:10.authorities that you have control or influence over our conservative,
:45:11. > :45:18.will you be the tail wagging the Bristol dog? I know that ten and
:45:19. > :45:25.Matthew work well. They genuinely do work together. I am looking forward
:45:26. > :45:27.to being the fourth member of that team. But this is about strategic
:45:28. > :45:31.planning for the region. It is not planning for the region. It is not
:45:32. > :45:37.about those individual constituency parts. I will be championing
:45:38. > :45:42.everybody. I want to come back to the point
:45:43. > :45:48.made in the film by Lesley Mansell. In the past South Gloucestershire
:45:49. > :45:51.and Banes, Conservative controlled, haven't got a better deal from the
:45:52. > :45:55.Conservative Government, will you be able to get that deal for the West
:45:56. > :46:01.of England? Will you be able to demand more resources, or if to
:46:02. > :46:05.high? I have said it is important to high? I have said it is important to
:46:06. > :46:08.have somebody that will work constructively with council leaders,
:46:09. > :46:16.partners, and also with the Government. My man has never been
:46:17. > :46:19.thumping tables, it has always been taking good positive cases to people
:46:20. > :46:25.and making a positive case for the West of England. That is what I will
:46:26. > :46:28.be doing. It will be an advantage to have a member of the Government as
:46:29. > :46:31.being conservative but we have already been meeting the Chancellor,
:46:32. > :46:36.meeting key ministers are ready, and I will be working for the benefit of
:46:37. > :46:41.everybody, hopefully with Theresa May. The Lib Dems said you with the
:46:42. > :46:50.Government puppet. I know who Government puppet. I know who
:46:51. > :46:54.Stephen Kearns. It is vital we have somebody working constructively but
:46:55. > :46:58.in the best interests of everybody. Yes, I will be challenging anybody,
:46:59. > :47:02.at council level, as Partner level, or in Government, to make sure we're
:47:03. > :47:11.getting the best deals all the way through. You will be at the table as
:47:12. > :47:14.Andy Burnham who has won in Manchester, and Andy streets, who
:47:15. > :47:21.has taken over in the West Midlands. Will you be able to pull your weight
:47:22. > :47:25.on that table? These are strong particle and charismatic men. I have
:47:26. > :47:28.got every confidence that the best available get good representation
:47:29. > :47:33.from me, not just nationally but globally. It is important that
:47:34. > :47:36.somebody is driven by that. That is mighty all along. In terms of
:47:37. > :47:41.sitting down with people from the other regions, the West of England
:47:42. > :47:44.is the strongest economy outside the south-east, we have got a brilliant
:47:45. > :47:48.will be making sure I am standing up will be making sure I am standing up
:47:49. > :47:50.and getting the right exposure. Good. Don't go away. We have more to
:47:51. > :47:53.talk about. Of course there were other
:47:54. > :47:55.elections on Thursday - with the Conservatives picking up 21
:47:56. > :47:57.seats in Gloucestershire, Labour and the Liberal Democrats
:47:58. > :48:00.both councillors and Dickon Hooper has made
:48:01. > :48:05.a meal of it in Taunton. Voter by voter, the
:48:06. > :48:10.leaflets are handed out. The local elections are done -
:48:11. > :48:13.but campaigning for June isn't. The Lib Dems know
:48:14. > :48:17.they have to do better. Despite their vote share rising,
:48:18. > :48:20.they lost seats in Somerset. We were pleased that
:48:21. > :48:27.we've got a rise in our That didn't translate
:48:28. > :48:31.directly into seats. But I don't accept that
:48:32. > :48:33.we are swept away by a What's their appetite for the party
:48:34. > :49:01.at the general election? How are the sausages? Fantastic. How
:49:02. > :49:05.is the politics? I have already met the Liberal Democrat candidate for
:49:06. > :49:09.the general election who called by about one week ago. We had a
:49:10. > :49:15.discussion. I agree with some of the things apart from tax increases. You
:49:16. > :49:21.could go conservative on them? Yes. There is a tipping point at the end
:49:22. > :49:29.and we are not sure what that is until nearer the time. I voted
:49:30. > :49:34.Liberal Democrat. They are the only party that have a positive take on
:49:35. > :49:39.the problems facing the nation. I would fall Conservative consistently
:49:40. > :49:44.at the moment because we need strong leadership to get us through the
:49:45. > :49:47.next five years. Strong and stable leadership? I have heard that
:49:48. > :49:50.phrase. You are a Labour of water thinking of voting conservative and
:49:51. > :49:57.you are a Lib Dem not convinced by then. As anything come -- is
:49:58. > :50:00.anything certain? No. No. Enjoy the sausages.
:50:01. > :50:18.I feel disappointed for all the people that work with you and all
:50:19. > :50:22.the good friends that came out. I am getting emotional. We are stoical.
:50:23. > :50:23.We move on. My good friend is standing for Parliament and we will
:50:24. > :50:36.live to fight another day. Labour is in a weak position at the
:50:37. > :50:43.moment. For an opposition party to still be under 30% in its share of
:50:44. > :50:44.the vote in these contests, to still be doing as badly as it has, it
:50:45. > :50:47.still has a long way to go. With the opposition parties playing
:50:48. > :50:51.catch up in certain parts We're joined by Lesley Williams,
:50:52. > :50:57.the leader of the Labour group on Gloucestershire County Council,
:50:58. > :50:59.and also by Tessa Munt, the newly-elected Liberal Democrat
:51:00. > :51:20.councillor in Wells. How many are you going to win by in
:51:21. > :51:25.the general election, how many seats? I am not making predictions.
:51:26. > :51:30.Are you going to win? We have as good a chance of winning as anybody.
:51:31. > :51:36.Really? I do. What has been the reaction on the doorstep when you
:51:37. > :51:40.call round to Jeremy Corbyn, is he an asset is he not an asset? The
:51:41. > :51:45.Labour Party has grown enormously over the last few months. The
:51:46. > :51:48.membership has elected a leader. We get behind the leader. The
:51:49. > :51:54.membership needs to get out onto the stump, tell people what we stand
:51:55. > :51:59.for, and we will return Labour MPs to Government. What do people say
:52:00. > :52:03.about Jeremy Corbyn? Very little. Is that good or bad. I think it says a
:52:04. > :52:09.lot about people's lives, but what is going on for them, that their
:52:10. > :52:13.local concerns, I am a local County Council, I am interested in their
:52:14. > :52:19.lives, and how they can be improved. Why did you do so really, the party,
:52:20. > :52:22.and Gloucester? There are a number of reasons and it still has to be
:52:23. > :52:27.analysed. But in stride we didn't do badly. But in Gloucestershire and
:52:28. > :52:30.you did. In certain areas he did badly but in Stroud where Reid told
:52:31. > :52:35.voters what they stood for we did well and Tories lost seats in favour
:52:36. > :52:39.of the Labour Party and the Green Party. Overall they didn't lose
:52:40. > :52:43.seats. Over the difference, but if you put your effort into it and tell
:52:44. > :52:47.people what we stand for we can get people to get out and fought back.
:52:48. > :52:51.So you didn't put effort into battle and Gloucester? I don't know. We did
:52:52. > :52:54.put effort and there but I was working in Stroud district and my
:52:55. > :52:59.particular division and people tie-dyed and faltered. Martin is a
:53:00. > :53:08.working-class area of Gloucester. It should be natural territory. It is a
:53:09. > :53:12.very mixed population. Tessa Munt, welcome, you lost in the general
:53:13. > :53:17.election, and we have got some pictures of you losing your seat
:53:18. > :53:21.there. And here you were on Thursday, because you have been
:53:22. > :53:28.elected as a county councillor. That is what politics does. It is a
:53:29. > :53:31.painful business. But is a roller-coaster. You got back as a
:53:32. > :53:36.counsellor but there was not the Lib Dem reviver but we have been told to
:53:37. > :53:41.expect. I don't know that that is quite true. We calibrated the number
:53:42. > :53:48.of votes this time in the County Council, my area, our vote has gone
:53:49. > :53:52.up by 71%. And even during the period in 2009 with Nick Clegg Arab
:53:53. > :54:13.thought had gone up by 32%. You lost half a dozen councillors. -- in 2009
:54:14. > :54:26.with Nick Clegg Arab vote had gone up by 32%.
:54:27. > :54:29.We have got a good proposition. Do you accept that Theresa Villiers
:54:30. > :54:39.will be the next Prime Minister? Not entirely. You only have to look at
:54:40. > :54:41.the local election results. Tim, you were given a run for your money in
:54:42. > :55:03.the Metro Mayor area. deliver serious numbers. We spoke
:55:04. > :55:07.about this before in terms of size and scale, diversity of the region
:55:08. > :55:12.that I was up for election for earlier this week. It has a very
:55:13. > :55:16.different demographic and lots of areas and in terms of voting
:55:17. > :55:20.history, it was clear to us in the Conservative Party it was always
:55:21. > :55:25.going to be a very close fight between the Labour Party and the
:55:26. > :55:29.Conservative Party. There are nine Parliamentary constituencies, six of
:55:30. > :55:32.them are Tory health, you should have won easily. When you analyse
:55:33. > :55:37.that numbers about how the votes were cast in the last general
:55:38. > :55:40.election and local election, it was clear it was good to be a close
:55:41. > :55:46.fight between the Conservatives and the Labour Party. The message that
:55:47. > :55:50.we were giving us a constructive future for the region, a positive
:55:51. > :55:54.future for the region. That is what helped win it for us on Thursday.
:55:55. > :55:59.Are you expecting a Conservative landslide in one month's town? I was
:56:00. > :56:00.out campaigning yesterday morning, bright and early, all through
:56:01. > :56:07.yesterday. We think it is going to yesterday. We think it is going to
:56:08. > :56:11.be a hard fight. We are campaigning every day. We are taking nothing for
:56:12. > :56:18.granted. They are fighting every seat in the area. If you look at the
:56:19. > :56:22.results that we can focus on, take Cheltenham, Thornbury, Bristol West,
:56:23. > :56:27.there is no question, and other seats close to mine, then you will
:56:28. > :56:33.find yourself in a situation where you have got the Dems who are
:56:34. > :56:37.fighting close up. Are you going on the streets to see you will put up
:56:38. > :56:43.taxes? People don't mind about that. The idea of putting a penny on
:56:44. > :56:50.income tax, it hurts those people who are more well off more, of
:56:51. > :56:54.course it is a good idea. More money for the NHS. When will the tax
:56:55. > :56:59.changes take effect, how much will you have to be earning to pay the
:57:00. > :57:06.extra penny? You start paying taxes soon as you get to 11,000 500. Simon
:57:07. > :57:10.on 12,000, 13,000 could pay more tax. People are desperate to do
:57:11. > :57:17.something about the NHS and the idea that that money is ring fenced and
:57:18. > :57:19.totally for the NHS. We have heard Theresa May making packages about
:57:20. > :57:28.mental health care. The money that she and her men -- that she and her
:57:29. > :57:33.predecessors promised. 6 billion, a good deal of money. They have had 8
:57:34. > :57:38.billion already. They haven't. It is not going that way. It gets cut off
:57:39. > :57:41.in a different way. Money promised for children's mental health
:57:42. > :57:45.services has not come through and that needs to be dealt with. Do you
:57:46. > :57:51.feel embarrassed that it is the Lib Dem is promising to increase taxes
:57:52. > :57:55.for local services? And you are not. Unless you are an 80,000 this what
:57:56. > :57:59.Labour said this morning, that is when the new tax regime will come
:58:00. > :58:03.in. That is true but I remember at the Lib Dems saying they would put a
:58:04. > :58:11.penny on education. They tend to make promises. That didn't work
:58:12. > :58:16.either. They make promises they can't keep. I don't know what to do
:58:17. > :58:19.with that one. That is incorrect. Look at the promises that we did
:58:20. > :58:25.make about income tax in 2010, David Cameron said it was impossible, and
:58:26. > :58:31.we delivered that. The Conservatives are keeping very quiet about tax. It
:58:32. > :58:39.is like a football match. Theresa May, the 80th minute, she is playing
:58:40. > :58:43.it safe, she is not trying to shoot. We don't know what that Labour and
:58:44. > :58:48.Conservative tax priorities would be. The message I am getting
:58:49. > :58:50.throughout my campaign and certainly yesterday was about having strong
:58:51. > :58:57.and stable leadership for the future. I promise you I will say
:58:58. > :59:03.that only once. But honestly that is what was coming across on the
:59:04. > :59:07.doorstep in a big way. What was important for me in the region was
:59:08. > :59:13.showing how we are going to help improve the regional economy. That
:59:14. > :59:16.is vital again for the country. Austerity continues under the
:59:17. > :59:21.Conservatives. We have to live within our means. Everybody
:59:22. > :59:26.recognises that. It is important that we live within our means, that
:59:27. > :59:31.we develop the economy, so that we can invest for everybody. I want to
:59:32. > :59:38.talk about how the opposition parties at the moment might position
:59:39. > :59:42.themselves. We know that in Gloucestershire, in one seat
:59:43. > :59:44.everybody stood aside and let the Greens go against the Conservatives
:59:45. > :59:50.and the Greens won that particular seat. Let us hear from the Green
:59:51. > :59:53.Party. Yes, we fought very hard. We did well for years ago at County
:59:54. > :00:00.Council, we came second. We thought it was a good seats to target. There
:00:01. > :00:03.are so many Greens who think they are the only green, but we were able
:00:04. > :00:09.to bring them together and get them out to the ballot box. Let us talk
:00:10. > :00:12.about the possibility of this so-called progressive Alliance,
:00:13. > :00:15.would you consider doing some sort of deal between Labour, the Lib
:00:16. > :00:20.Dems, perhaps the Greens which are not at the moment. They mentioned
:00:21. > :00:25.Hampton, it was not one of our target seats, the Lib Dems didn't
:00:26. > :00:31.put up a candidate. I am sure there are discussions going on. A lot of
:00:32. > :00:36.people in my area in Somerset is no that this is always a battle between
:00:37. > :00:41.the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. A lot of people have grown used to
:00:42. > :00:44.tactical voting. As far as any deals are concerned that is for the Green
:00:45. > :00:48.Party to decide what they want to do. I am not want to tell them what
:00:49. > :00:50.to do. We had better leave it there. Thank you all very much indeed. That
:00:51. > :01:16.is all for this week. housing associations and investment,
:01:17. > :01:26.but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.
:01:27. > :01:33.Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the
:01:34. > :01:37.party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin
:01:38. > :01:43.with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for
:01:44. > :01:47.four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this
:01:48. > :01:51.election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she
:01:52. > :01:57.thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,
:01:58. > :02:02.she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with
:02:03. > :02:06.accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks
:02:07. > :02:07.when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the
:02:08. > :02:14.manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in
:02:15. > :02:19.the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.
:02:20. > :02:24.She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big
:02:25. > :02:34.she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of
:02:35. > :02:39.strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,
:02:40. > :02:42.they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that
:02:43. > :02:47.the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with
:02:48. > :02:51.it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody
:02:52. > :02:55.over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few
:02:56. > :02:59.things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,
:03:00. > :03:02.they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to
:03:03. > :03:07.the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a
:03:08. > :03:13.question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later
:03:14. > :03:18.on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her
:03:19. > :03:23.interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short
:03:24. > :03:27.manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,
:03:28. > :03:31.aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think
:03:32. > :03:36.Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local
:03:37. > :03:39.candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much
:03:40. > :03:46.framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not
:03:47. > :03:51.a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and
:03:52. > :03:54.the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the
:03:55. > :03:58.population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle
:03:59. > :04:03.England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be
:04:04. > :04:07.her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big
:04:08. > :04:11.slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the
:04:12. > :04:16.public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is
:04:17. > :04:20.happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell
:04:21. > :04:23.to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The
:04:24. > :04:26.Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he
:04:27. > :04:32.denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before
:04:33. > :04:40.saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a
:04:41. > :04:44.Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe
:04:45. > :04:49.that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended
:04:50. > :04:52.not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe
:04:53. > :05:01.that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand
:05:02. > :05:05.systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the
:05:06. > :05:11.economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a
:05:12. > :05:16.generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,
:05:17. > :05:20.yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution
:05:21. > :05:24.my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,
:05:25. > :05:30.I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have
:05:31. > :05:35.untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been
:05:36. > :05:39.exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about
:05:40. > :05:43.to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,
:05:44. > :05:49.when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he
:05:50. > :05:53.would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is
:05:54. > :05:56.clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described
:05:57. > :06:03.it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.
:06:04. > :06:08.There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.
:06:09. > :06:12.Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in
:06:13. > :06:17.constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the
:06:18. > :06:22.former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they
:06:23. > :06:27.could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with
:06:28. > :06:30.their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that
:06:31. > :06:34.there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous
:06:35. > :06:38.battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,
:06:39. > :06:42.where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because
:06:43. > :06:49.of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway
:06:50. > :06:54.that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election
:06:55. > :07:00.results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear
:07:01. > :07:04.that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John
:07:05. > :07:08.McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it
:07:09. > :07:14.would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is
:07:15. > :07:17.not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but
:07:18. > :07:23.maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with
:07:24. > :07:28.30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it
:07:29. > :07:31.reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they
:07:32. > :07:36.said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million
:07:37. > :07:44.votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that
:07:45. > :07:49.manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of
:07:50. > :07:54.holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform
:07:55. > :07:58.on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and
:07:59. > :08:02.desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say
:08:03. > :08:06.that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as
:08:07. > :08:10.an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top
:08:11. > :08:14.party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and
:08:15. > :08:17.decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential
:08:18. > :08:21.candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching
:08:22. > :08:26.straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the
:08:27. > :08:33.Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.
:08:34. > :08:41.Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a
:08:42. > :08:47.dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89
:08:48. > :08:52.MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not
:08:53. > :08:57.know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative
:08:58. > :09:05.vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.
:09:06. > :09:07.Four weeks to go, but not for France...
:09:08. > :09:10.France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get
:09:11. > :09:13.a first estimate of who will be the country's next President
:09:14. > :09:17.Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.
:09:18. > :09:18.The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal
:09:19. > :09:20.reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist
:09:21. > :09:23.Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.
:09:24. > :09:25.The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential
:09:26. > :09:27.hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.
:09:28. > :09:30.The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,
:09:31. > :09:36.and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before
:09:37. > :09:38.campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said
:09:39. > :09:43.it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,
:09:44. > :09:46.with a trove of documents released online.
:09:47. > :09:49.The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,
:09:50. > :09:51.and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading
:09:52. > :10:02.details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.
:10:03. > :10:03.I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist
:10:04. > :10:17.As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus
:10:18. > :10:22.that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any
:10:23. > :10:26.reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there
:10:27. > :10:32.have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have
:10:33. > :10:36.decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was
:10:37. > :10:41.agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as
:10:42. > :10:46.president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le
:10:47. > :10:52.Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something
:10:53. > :10:56.huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,
:10:57. > :11:03.he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,
:11:04. > :11:08.then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a
:11:09. > :11:13.fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his
:11:14. > :11:18.reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his
:11:19. > :11:22.programme through? I think that right now, with how things are
:11:23. > :11:27.looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the
:11:28. > :11:33.Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want
:11:34. > :11:39.to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at
:11:40. > :11:43.the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on
:11:44. > :11:46.how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very
:11:47. > :11:58.well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an
:11:59. > :12:06.adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of
:12:07. > :12:12.France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three
:12:13. > :12:17.years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She
:12:18. > :12:24.would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le
:12:25. > :12:29.Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and
:12:30. > :12:36.ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of
:12:37. > :12:44.that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?
:12:45. > :12:51.Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le
:12:52. > :12:55.Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that
:12:56. > :13:03.2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just
:13:04. > :13:05.five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the
:13:06. > :13:10.election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here
:13:11. > :13:14.on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair
:13:15. > :13:16.indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on
:13:17. > :13:20.BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every
:13:21. > :13:22.turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One
:13:23. > :13:27.at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:28. > :13:29.it's the Sunday Politics. Our crack team of experts
:13:30. > :14:14.use pioneering research