:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes
:00:45. > :00:47.in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -
:00:48. > :00:54.Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax
:00:55. > :00:56.to fund public services, but will traders just
:00:57. > :01:00.Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,
:01:01. > :01:02.insists he can win this election - so which way will
:01:03. > :01:18.and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air
:01:19. > :01:26.pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically
:01:27. > :01:29.selected focus group of political pundits -
:01:30. > :01:32.they're not so much undecided as clueless -
:01:33. > :01:33.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting
:01:34. > :01:41.throughout the programme. So, we've got two new
:01:42. > :01:43.policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce
:01:44. > :01:45.a financial transaction tax if they win the general election
:01:46. > :01:48.and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax
:01:49. > :01:50.avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work
:01:51. > :01:52.with local authorities in England to build council houses
:01:53. > :01:54.with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy
:01:55. > :01:57."will help thousands of people get on the first rung
:01:58. > :02:09.of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I
:02:10. > :02:14.have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in
:02:15. > :02:18.pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as
:02:19. > :02:22.literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the
:02:23. > :02:27.Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it
:02:28. > :02:31.framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a
:02:32. > :02:36.sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a
:02:37. > :02:39.narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an
:02:40. > :02:46.argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour
:02:47. > :02:49.government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said
:02:50. > :02:52.right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a
:02:53. > :02:56.housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit
:02:57. > :03:01.George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get
:03:02. > :03:05.house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it
:03:06. > :03:10.works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes
:03:11. > :03:17.sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa
:03:18. > :03:22.May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly
:03:23. > :03:25.these two announcements have something in common which is that
:03:26. > :03:32.over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.
:03:33. > :03:35.Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't
:03:36. > :03:42.agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like
:03:43. > :03:47.a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might
:03:48. > :03:51.become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is
:03:52. > :03:56.difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what
:03:57. > :04:01.looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase
:04:02. > :04:05.orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will
:04:06. > :04:08.change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market
:04:09. > :04:13.value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily
:04:14. > :04:21.with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both
:04:22. > :04:24.would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and
:04:25. > :04:31.traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then
:04:32. > :04:39.councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the
:04:40. > :04:42.city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the
:04:43. > :04:46.Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is
:04:47. > :04:51.talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now
:04:52. > :04:59.Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is
:05:00. > :05:03.the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most
:05:04. > :05:10.interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC
:05:11. > :05:13.correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't
:05:14. > :05:18.worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising
:05:19. > :05:25.it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the
:05:26. > :05:30.macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very
:05:31. > :05:32.well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.
:05:33. > :05:35.Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.
:05:36. > :05:38.But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -
:05:39. > :05:40.that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media
:05:41. > :05:49.Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra
:05:50. > :05:52.?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social
:05:53. > :05:54.care over the lifetime of the next parliament,
:05:55. > :05:56.as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over
:05:57. > :06:03.The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,
:06:04. > :06:05.although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious
:06:06. > :06:08.about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence
:06:09. > :06:11.and security review immediately after the election.
:06:12. > :06:13.In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable
:06:14. > :06:15.management of migration", but it will not make "false
:06:16. > :06:21.Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,
:06:22. > :06:24.and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises
:06:25. > :06:28.for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.
:06:29. > :06:30.The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail
:06:31. > :06:38.and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one
:06:39. > :06:43.A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics
:06:44. > :06:46.as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss
:06:47. > :06:48.about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates
:06:49. > :06:50.told us they thought it had been deliberately
:06:51. > :06:54.leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting
:06:55. > :06:56.the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"
:06:57. > :06:59.And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,
:07:00. > :07:08.Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise
:07:09. > :07:12.the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out
:07:13. > :07:17.rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the
:07:18. > :07:21.railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three
:07:22. > :07:27.Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to
:07:28. > :07:34.comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what
:07:35. > :07:38.is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will
:07:39. > :07:43.nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking
:07:44. > :07:47.the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail
:07:48. > :07:52.will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail
:07:53. > :07:56.until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound
:07:57. > :08:03.very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National
:08:04. > :08:08.Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to
:08:09. > :08:12.nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you
:08:13. > :08:19.will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the
:08:20. > :08:23.National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just
:08:24. > :08:27.have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is
:08:28. > :08:32.it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that
:08:33. > :08:37.costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I
:08:38. > :08:42.would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform
:08:43. > :08:45.the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority
:08:46. > :08:50.stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion
:08:51. > :08:57.in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for
:08:58. > :09:00.reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not
:09:01. > :09:04.going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the
:09:05. > :09:09.distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising
:09:10. > :09:14.the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on
:09:15. > :09:17.Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent
:09:18. > :09:25.years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in
:09:26. > :09:30.answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for
:09:31. > :09:34.nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the
:09:35. > :09:38.energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big
:09:39. > :09:43.six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to
:09:44. > :09:50.be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,
:09:51. > :09:54.you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with
:09:55. > :10:02.the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty
:10:03. > :10:07.to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The
:10:08. > :10:12.Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British
:10:13. > :10:15.taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a
:10:16. > :10:19.long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a
:10:20. > :10:25.key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in
:10:26. > :10:27.our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households
:10:28. > :10:33.ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal
:10:34. > :10:37.providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John
:10:38. > :10:42.McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top
:10:43. > :10:47.of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You
:10:48. > :10:55.will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years
:10:56. > :11:01.after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing
:11:02. > :11:08.75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of
:11:09. > :11:12.capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our
:11:13. > :11:16.financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a
:11:17. > :11:19.state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we
:11:20. > :11:26.won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.
:11:27. > :11:30.How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75
:11:31. > :11:36.billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500
:11:37. > :11:40.billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure
:11:41. > :11:44.that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a
:11:45. > :11:48.figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial
:11:49. > :11:56.competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the
:11:57. > :12:00.CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250
:12:01. > :12:05.billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the
:12:06. > :12:10.fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a
:12:11. > :12:17.proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have
:12:18. > :12:21.just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will
:12:22. > :12:25.ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the
:12:26. > :12:32.parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state
:12:33. > :12:36.than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will
:12:37. > :12:40.ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came
:12:41. > :12:48.to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft
:12:49. > :12:52.manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going
:12:53. > :12:57.to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps
:12:58. > :13:01.we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for
:13:02. > :13:05.corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your
:13:06. > :13:10.predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end
:13:11. > :13:14.of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their
:13:15. > :13:19.behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or
:13:20. > :13:24.they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to
:13:25. > :13:28.make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and
:13:29. > :13:33.costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.
:13:34. > :13:36.We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes
:13:37. > :13:41.in market activity because that would be approved and direction to
:13:42. > :13:49.take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United
:13:50. > :13:52.States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are
:13:53. > :13:57.already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,
:13:58. > :14:02.if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number
:14:03. > :14:07.of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in
:14:08. > :14:12.the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting
:14:13. > :14:16.corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business
:14:17. > :14:19.investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent
:14:20. > :14:25.years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in
:14:26. > :14:29.things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce
:14:30. > :14:34.the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the
:14:35. > :14:42.Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the
:14:43. > :14:45.proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can
:14:46. > :14:52.invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.
:14:53. > :15:02.Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in
:15:03. > :15:08.?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a
:15:09. > :15:15.year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so
:15:16. > :15:19.what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it
:15:20. > :15:25.increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about
:15:26. > :15:28.cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to
:15:29. > :15:34.thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are
:15:35. > :15:41.industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate
:15:42. > :15:46.businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if
:15:47. > :15:53.we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am
:15:54. > :16:01.not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business
:16:02. > :16:04.tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to
:16:05. > :16:16.thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on
:16:17. > :16:20.business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own
:16:21. > :16:26.labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not
:16:27. > :16:31.want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding
:16:32. > :16:35.with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing
:16:36. > :16:39.global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.
:16:40. > :16:45.Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't
:16:46. > :16:50.cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought
:16:51. > :16:54.in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has
:16:55. > :16:59.changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that
:17:00. > :17:03.change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a
:17:04. > :17:08.lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We
:17:09. > :17:15.need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the
:17:16. > :17:20.computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other
:17:21. > :17:22.countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what
:17:23. > :17:31.other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at
:17:32. > :17:38.introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will
:17:39. > :17:42.be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at
:17:43. > :17:47.the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in
:17:48. > :17:52.2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are
:17:53. > :17:56.going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which
:17:57. > :18:01.generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a
:18:02. > :18:12.significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied
:18:13. > :18:16.at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the
:18:17. > :18:22.instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.
:18:23. > :18:25.This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in
:18:26. > :18:29.terms of financial services because there is more to keep these
:18:30. > :18:34.businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the
:18:35. > :18:38.economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we
:18:39. > :18:42.will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.
:18:43. > :18:48.And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.
:18:49. > :18:54.Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower
:18:55. > :19:01.than international standards, so why are so many global companies who
:19:02. > :19:06.make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of
:19:07. > :19:09.the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not
:19:10. > :19:15.answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the
:19:16. > :19:18.important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it
:19:19. > :19:24.encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may
:19:25. > :19:30.say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.
:19:31. > :19:39.But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and
:19:40. > :19:42.did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading
:19:43. > :19:51.internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our
:19:52. > :19:55.partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than
:19:56. > :19:59.they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,
:20:00. > :20:05.alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the
:20:06. > :20:09.people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the
:20:10. > :20:14.corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and
:20:15. > :20:18.more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a
:20:19. > :20:24.number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been
:20:25. > :20:27.able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the
:20:28. > :20:34.changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British
:20:35. > :20:38.companies, not from these international companies. It is
:20:39. > :20:42.because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good
:20:43. > :20:48.thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack
:20:49. > :20:52.down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused
:20:53. > :20:57.to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by
:20:58. > :21:03.cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking
:21:04. > :21:08.down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap
:21:09. > :21:13.is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.
:21:14. > :21:20.It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have
:21:21. > :21:24.brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax
:21:25. > :21:34.schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone
:21:35. > :21:36.from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the
:21:37. > :21:41.Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money
:21:42. > :21:47.on these companies while still having a competitive rate to
:21:48. > :21:52.encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to
:21:53. > :21:55.prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on
:21:56. > :22:01.average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms
:22:02. > :22:06.by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it
:22:07. > :22:11.that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,
:22:12. > :22:16.Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual
:22:17. > :22:26.income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,
:22:27. > :22:28.people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep
:22:29. > :22:32.emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years
:22:33. > :22:38.and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.
:22:39. > :22:44.Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.
:22:45. > :22:50.There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.
:22:51. > :22:54.1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their
:22:55. > :22:58.careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,
:22:59. > :23:02.investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,
:23:03. > :23:08.companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities
:23:09. > :23:11.that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about
:23:12. > :23:16.hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than
:23:17. > :23:21.they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives
:23:22. > :23:24.have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has
:23:25. > :23:29.shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of
:23:30. > :23:35.?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions
:23:36. > :23:40.kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one
:23:41. > :23:46.law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of
:23:47. > :23:51.all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare
:23:52. > :23:56.and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people
:23:57. > :24:04.in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that
:24:05. > :24:08.allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket
:24:09. > :24:15.to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,
:24:16. > :24:21.among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as
:24:22. > :24:27.we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen
:24:28. > :24:31.millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these
:24:32. > :24:36.questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just
:24:37. > :24:40.about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and
:24:41. > :24:44.below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We
:24:45. > :24:49.have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone
:24:50. > :24:55.up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages
:24:56. > :25:00.will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for
:25:01. > :25:05.housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,
:25:06. > :25:09.social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the
:25:10. > :25:13.associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4
:25:14. > :25:21.billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you
:25:22. > :25:23.get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local
:25:24. > :25:31.authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.
:25:32. > :25:35.I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at
:25:36. > :25:41.100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at
:25:42. > :25:46.you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the
:25:47. > :25:49.local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is
:25:50. > :25:54.what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the
:25:55. > :25:57.money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the
:25:58. > :26:03.expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the
:26:04. > :26:09.housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how
:26:10. > :26:14.many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on
:26:15. > :26:19.it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what
:26:20. > :26:22.the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities
:26:23. > :26:26.who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.
:26:27. > :26:30.What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,
:26:31. > :26:34.they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,
:26:35. > :26:39.the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with
:26:40. > :26:43.them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I
:26:44. > :26:49.want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what
:26:50. > :26:52.the target and timescale is, and this government, under which
:26:53. > :26:58.affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million
:26:59. > :27:04.families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your
:27:05. > :27:08.record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what
:27:09. > :27:13.we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a
:27:14. > :27:20.strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This
:27:21. > :27:26.is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,
:27:27. > :27:31.75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.
:27:32. > :27:35.That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the
:27:36. > :27:46.industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in
:27:47. > :27:51.2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000
:27:52. > :27:59.affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.
:28:00. > :28:06.So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have
:28:07. > :28:12.delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour
:28:13. > :28:16.did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,
:28:17. > :28:17.working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in
:28:18. > :28:21.their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit
:28:22. > :28:24.of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those
:28:25. > :28:27.around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got
:28:28. > :28:30.three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those
:28:31. > :28:32.fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation
:28:33. > :28:37.YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders
:28:38. > :28:39.will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters
:28:40. > :28:48.of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home
:28:49. > :28:53.to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited
:28:54. > :28:56.from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't
:28:57. > :29:00.decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,
:29:01. > :29:02.two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up
:29:03. > :29:09.political press at Downing Street under David Cameron
:29:10. > :29:15.and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron
:29:16. > :29:17.and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself
:29:18. > :29:22.as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it
:29:23. > :29:42.came about who you want,
:29:43. > :29:46.if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus
:29:47. > :29:49.groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,
:29:50. > :29:52.even though some of those same people have been saying we quite
:29:53. > :29:54.like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's
:29:55. > :29:59.going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive
:30:00. > :30:00.manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,
:30:01. > :30:05.that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that
:30:06. > :30:07.you don't recognise? After a little warm up,
:30:08. > :30:09.the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong
:30:10. > :30:15.woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,
:30:16. > :30:18.when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,
:30:19. > :30:20.here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what
:30:21. > :30:23.are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,
:30:24. > :30:28.it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's
:30:29. > :30:36.actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership
:30:37. > :30:49.in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's
:30:50. > :30:53.the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one
:30:54. > :31:03.for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad
:31:04. > :31:06.as strong and stable, but it will probably get
:31:07. > :31:08.on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today
:31:09. > :31:19.and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my
:31:20. > :31:26.question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,
:31:27. > :31:29.we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table
:31:30. > :31:32.at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,
:31:33. > :31:35.we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control
:31:36. > :31:37.and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought
:31:38. > :31:42.he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,
:31:43. > :31:51.hovering around, skirting around and that's the second
:31:52. > :31:54.time I've seen a similar interview with the question
:31:55. > :31:55.being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have
:31:56. > :31:57.any confidence with him You think you are going up
:31:58. > :32:01.against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand
:32:02. > :32:03.up for us? When you are in negotiations,
:32:04. > :32:08.you need to be tough. And actually is right
:32:09. > :32:10.to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing
:32:11. > :32:12.something for the country. There's a reason for talking
:32:13. > :32:15.about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future
:32:16. > :32:17.of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen
:32:18. > :32:21.to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show
:32:22. > :32:27.and in the news. She attracts the public better
:32:28. > :32:33.than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question
:32:34. > :32:36.in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa
:32:37. > :32:42.May is an animal. So, in your minds,
:32:43. > :32:45.what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think
:32:46. > :32:59.she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's
:33:00. > :33:05.superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies
:33:06. > :33:21.are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak
:33:22. > :33:24.and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch
:33:25. > :33:27.you by surprise if you're What do you take away
:33:28. > :33:35.from what you saw then, and what message would you send back
:33:36. > :33:38.to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see
:33:39. > :33:41.Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,
:33:42. > :33:43.but you don't need to be liked to be elected,
:33:44. > :33:46.because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future
:33:47. > :33:48.and your security. I think what I also take out
:33:49. > :33:50.of that focus group, was it was a group of floating
:33:51. > :33:53.voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no
:33:54. > :33:56.huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ
:33:57. > :33:59.would be stick to the plan. I thought the response
:34:00. > :34:03.to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't
:34:04. > :34:05.particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her
:34:06. > :34:10.about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party
:34:11. > :34:13.want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks
:34:14. > :34:15.that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:16. > :34:22.what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise
:34:23. > :34:24.the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform
:34:25. > :34:30.out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those
:34:31. > :34:32.characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be
:34:33. > :34:35.over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact
:34:36. > :34:37.that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go
:34:38. > :34:40.into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American
:34:41. > :34:48.political consultant For the sake of this discussion,
:34:49. > :34:55.assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for
:34:56. > :35:01.Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious
:35:02. > :35:04.collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether
:35:05. > :35:09.you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where
:35:10. > :35:13.they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to
:35:14. > :35:18.watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more
:35:19. > :35:22.substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality
:35:23. > :35:27.and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because
:35:28. > :35:36.Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see
:35:37. > :35:44.on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language
:35:45. > :35:48.she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't
:35:49. > :35:53.see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her
:35:54. > :35:57.campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy
:35:58. > :36:03.because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary
:36:04. > :36:07.Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,
:36:08. > :36:14.the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I
:36:15. > :36:22.was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC
:36:23. > :36:26.had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can
:36:27. > :36:32.assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had
:36:33. > :36:39.but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other
:36:40. > :36:44.than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you
:36:45. > :36:49.will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour
:36:50. > :36:53.will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of
:36:54. > :36:56.number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of
:36:57. > :37:02.soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable
:37:03. > :37:05.majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British
:37:06. > :37:11.people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will
:37:12. > :37:16.have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice
:37:17. > :37:21.of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British
:37:22. > :37:25.politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there
:37:26. > :37:29.is still a significant percentage of the British population that once
:37:30. > :37:38.someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.
:37:39. > :37:41.I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and
:37:42. > :37:44.I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a
:37:45. > :37:50.population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.
:37:51. > :37:52.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:53. > :37:55.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:56. > :38:07.Welcome to Sunday Politics here in the west, on a sunny
:38:08. > :38:09.and breezy morning - perfect weather to be
:38:10. > :38:14.We have guests of many political colours -
:38:15. > :38:19.Would they stand a better chance of defeating the Conservatives?
:38:20. > :38:24.Or is that theory just a pile of, erm, manure?
:38:25. > :38:28.They are the Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, Helen Belcher
:38:29. > :38:32.from the Lib Dems, Sarah Church from Labour.
:38:33. > :38:41.But first, Mrs May called this election because -
:38:42. > :38:46.And one industry that has much to gain or lose from leaving the EU
:38:47. > :39:01.Robin Markwell is at a food fair in Bristol for us this morning.
:39:02. > :39:06.good morning, David. They say you should never talk politics at the
:39:07. > :39:12.dinner table, I don't know that applies to food fairs. The doors
:39:13. > :39:18.have just opened people are starting to streaming and there are all sorts
:39:19. > :39:26.of wares on Opera. -- on offer. Garlic mushrooms, some Thai food...
:39:27. > :39:33.Vintage tearooms here from 1946, you can see from the patriotic bunting
:39:34. > :39:38.that it's going back to the 1940s. My melon soup, Pam and Tony, good as
:39:39. > :39:43.you buy. A couple of stories to tell. You work through the
:39:44. > :39:52.Antipodean sommelier, just tell us what you do? Yellow two we we import
:39:53. > :39:58.Australian wines and to various distributors around the country. The
:39:59. > :40:06.drop in Stirling, how had infected your business? It is huge, in 2015,
:40:07. > :40:17.we be looking at $32 to the pound, pre-Brexit, it was 22. At an
:40:18. > :40:30.increasing goods to us for about 28%, that tough to get over. Macro
:40:31. > :40:34.and yet he still back Brexit? I believe if the negotiation isn't
:40:35. > :40:36.working, then you change the game. I would have expected various parties
:40:37. > :40:41.to get their heads together and perhaps do something about it, but
:40:42. > :40:44.it seems like people are polarised, which I don't think it is a good
:40:45. > :40:53.thing. I am pretty pleased about last week's French election ready
:40:54. > :41:02.for Mike didn't get in. Your family spoil pig, a bacon supplier, how is
:41:03. > :41:06.Brexit affected you? We're based in Devon, so we are on using British,
:41:07. > :41:10.outdoor reared pigs, but we do have our slicing equipment, that's
:41:11. > :41:20.jamming equipment if we need to update that it will have an effect.
:41:21. > :41:25.-- slicing equipment. Dunn as you voted remain, you are having second
:41:26. > :41:33.thoughts? I am not completely certain. I think being in Europe is
:41:34. > :41:38.stronger for Europe but as Tony said, we are we are, and we got to
:41:39. > :41:42.get on with it. Having a strong leadership is really important.
:41:43. > :41:50.Brexit could change about them? Tony, how are you back? I will vote
:41:51. > :41:56.the way I always have. My background is economic 's, so I will vote for
:41:57. > :42:02.the party that will allocate resources most efficiently. Pam and
:42:03. > :42:06.Tony, two different flavours at this delicious election.
:42:07. > :42:11.Jacob, food prices are up, inflation is up.
:42:12. > :42:14.Food prices are up the value of the pound is down.
:42:15. > :42:18.We're only seeing the beginning of the economic problems caused
:42:19. > :42:27.I think it was a very important point about New Zealand wine. The
:42:28. > :42:33.price may have gone up 28%, but the tariff that we play as a member of
:42:34. > :42:37.the EU is over 30%. So, once we are out of the EU, even with the fall in
:42:38. > :42:43.the pound, New Zealand wine can be cheaper and that is one of the
:42:44. > :42:47.advantages are Brexit. As it happens I prefer French wine. I'm very
:42:48. > :42:55.traditional. So it's not go to make a difference to me. New Zealand
:42:56. > :43:00.wine, Australian wine, Chilean wine, all of those will be cheaper because
:43:01. > :43:06.we weren't happy have EU tax. That a bit of a let them eat cake argument,
:43:07. > :43:11.isn't it? No, it applies to other foodstuffs as well. We can get
:43:12. > :43:17.cheaper beef from the United States and from Australia and from
:43:18. > :43:30.Argentina. The advantages of leaving come from the reduction in terrorist
:43:31. > :43:38.-- tariffs which reduce basic rates on staples. Less need for food
:43:39. > :43:41.banks? Food banks are good way of providing temporary support people
:43:42. > :43:45.in financial difficulties. Certainly nothing to do with the European
:43:46. > :43:46.Union. I would like to pursue that, and ensure we will before the
:43:47. > :43:48.election but will move on. Sarah, can you simply spell out
:43:49. > :44:03.what Labour's position on Brexit is? What I would say is that we have to
:44:04. > :44:06.have a construction approach, not a convert of approach. I do think
:44:07. > :44:10.saying that we will crash out regardless of the deal. You had the
:44:11. > :44:14.gentleman on the peace they are saying that all the options have to
:44:15. > :44:19.remain on the table and it may be at the Abbey temporary arrangement
:44:20. > :44:22.where we are able to make sure that we don't crash out of the single
:44:23. > :44:27.market and the customs union before sorting out all of our trade deals.
:44:28. > :44:30.Coming from Swindon, where we have 10,000 jobs reliant on access to the
:44:31. > :44:41.single market in some way, whether it is to do with access to research
:44:42. > :44:47.grants to enter contests in an economy it's important to look at
:44:48. > :44:52.what we need to achieve and not, as I said,... So what would be a good
:44:53. > :44:57.deal? A good deal would be one in which we have some access to the
:44:58. > :45:07.single market. Immigration is a topic that we have doing gave John,
:45:08. > :45:10.we can shy away from it. The feedback we get very clearly from
:45:11. > :45:14.across the country is that immigration has to match demand. You
:45:15. > :45:18.want access to the single market but not the strings that come with it,
:45:19. > :45:20.which is normally immigration? I'm which is normally immigration? I'm
:45:21. > :45:24.not saying that we have full access and full freedom of movement, I want
:45:25. > :45:32.guarantees for EU nationals who already live your and what is clear
:45:33. > :45:36.do with jobs in the economy. Certain do with jobs in the economy. Certain
:45:37. > :45:40.sectors of the economy need to bring workers in from outside and they are
:45:41. > :45:43.not putting British workers to one side to do that, then that is fine.
:45:44. > :45:47.At the moment we have a crisis in At the moment we have a crisis in
:45:48. > :46:06.recruiting nurses and going to India to do it. What do you make of Ukip?
:46:07. > :46:11.Your dentist to these indicators. -- you are going to see the indicators.
:46:12. > :46:18.Until the ink is dry we again to get speculation and instability. How do
:46:19. > :46:29.you know that people voted for a hard Brexit? It's just about leaving
:46:30. > :46:34.be like Norway, countless times. You be like Norway, countless times. You
:46:35. > :46:39.area where you pay in bed then you area where you pay in bed then you
:46:40. > :46:43.have to accept free movement? News Letter I'm of the mindset that you
:46:44. > :46:47.need to get out of the isolationist, protectionism of the European Union.
:46:48. > :46:54.I came to agree with Jacob around that. The tariffs that are imposed
:46:55. > :46:59.by that if we should no longer be part of. But enough sovereignty over
:47:00. > :47:04.our borders and our laws, that would I know a lot of people voted for in
:47:05. > :47:11.my neck and the having overwhelming percentage of people that voted for
:47:12. > :47:19.that. Alan, this sounds like paradise with a limp Dems? What's
:47:20. > :47:22.not to like. Well you're not also in products after exporting stuff and
:47:23. > :47:27.we explored a lot of red meat. So exporting beef to the EU is around
:47:28. > :47:31.70%. So suddenly a huge chunk of our export market becomes a lot harder.
:47:32. > :47:34.We're seeing me in fact of the We're seeing me in fact of the
:47:35. > :47:39.falling pound, increased food prices here. That isn't to be a short-term
:47:40. > :47:42.impact it may end up being a long impact but exporting becomes a lot
:47:43. > :47:45.harder for us if we are going to export to the European Union. That
:47:46. > :47:55.is a major market for us. What is the reaction to this when Tim Farron
:47:56. > :48:00.goes around in an area which rated generally for Brexit? I think
:48:01. > :48:05.whatever people voted for, leave remain, people are worried about
:48:06. > :48:12.what the deal actually is. I think as Liberal democrats we have taken a
:48:13. > :48:14.clear position on that deal. At the moment the election is the
:48:15. > :48:20.Conservatives saying, trust us we can sort it out. But it is vague.
:48:21. > :48:27.There is no detail. Let's bring this back to you too, Jacob. If do you
:48:28. > :48:31.think that by going through the selection, if there were a large
:48:32. > :48:38.Conservative majority as the newspapers are saying, would mean a
:48:39. > :48:41.Brexiteers, high Brexiteers like you and Liam Fox and David Davis and all
:48:42. > :48:47.the rest of them would be marginalised? And actually, Mrs May
:48:48. > :48:53.could do the deal that she wants to do which could be quite a soft one?
:48:54. > :49:02.I agree with Daniel that the hard and soft Brexit is Miss phraseology.
:49:03. > :49:05.-- Miss phraseology. We are leaving the European Union, it's neither
:49:06. > :49:12.hard soft, we're leaving. In terms of the consequences for people like
:49:13. > :49:17.me who campaign for Brexit I don't think that analogy applies. The
:49:18. > :49:20.overwhelming majority of members of Parliament were in favour of
:49:21. > :49:29.remaining within the European Union. There were about 150 year putt MPs
:49:30. > :49:36.who are in favour of leaving. Had she wanted to moralising marginalise
:49:37. > :49:40.us she would have done so anew last Parliament. We weren't going to get
:49:41. > :49:49.the SNP to support us, we weren't get the Lib Dems to supporters or
:49:50. > :49:52.the label to party -- Labour Party. They only needed ten of them to
:49:53. > :49:58.defeat the government to defeat the dog putt so had Mrs May wanted some
:49:59. > :50:03.terrible fudge, she would have advised to keep the last Parliament.
:50:04. > :50:14.If she is successful, what sort of breakfast will she get? She has said
:50:15. > :50:16.it sat on a Brexit. Enough of this coalition of chaos because we must
:50:17. > :50:18.move on. Thursday marked the closing
:50:19. > :50:20.date for prospective MPs The Tories, Lib Dems and Labour
:50:21. > :50:24.are contesting all 31 So, were deals done behind closed
:50:25. > :50:32.doors for political favours? Cheltenham in all her
:50:33. > :50:43.regency glory... Will you tell me who you
:50:44. > :50:47.going to vote for in This seat was taken
:50:48. > :50:53.by the Tories in 2015. But opposition parties are hoping
:50:54. > :51:04.for a blossoming of support. The Greens, Labour and Lib Dems
:51:05. > :51:09.helped each other out, we understand, in the local
:51:10. > :51:13.elections - although, The Lib Dems, though, could now see
:51:14. > :51:19.some support go to the Greens. They're standing for
:51:20. > :51:22.the general election Despite, they say, making overtures
:51:23. > :51:29.to Labour and the Lib Dems. Perhaps the Lib Dems were burnt
:51:30. > :51:34.by their last deal - the coalition. It's really important, I think,
:51:35. > :51:37.that people of all parties work together and don't live
:51:38. > :51:39.in their tribes. I really enjoyed, during
:51:40. > :51:43.the referendum last year, sharing a battlebus with Sadiq Khan,
:51:44. > :51:46.Ruth Davidson, Caroline Lucas, and it's great that politicians
:51:47. > :51:51.exist outside their tribes OK, but he says his party's
:51:52. > :51:58.job is to win seats. What do you think about the fact
:51:59. > :52:02.Greens are standing in Cheltenham, Well, I just hope it doesn't,
:52:03. > :52:08.but it is their right, isn't it? Because the essence of democracy
:52:09. > :52:21.is that you have a choice and it's Cheltenham is the only
:52:22. > :52:25.seat in Gloucestershire where Ukip is not standing,
:52:26. > :52:27.and that could help the Tories here. It's a similar story
:52:28. > :52:29.in Bristol in Somerset. Ukip is only fighting a handful
:52:30. > :52:33.of seats and are clear, in some cases, that this
:52:34. > :52:36.is to help the Tories. I actually believe that we should
:52:37. > :52:48.have politics where people work together and not pick
:52:49. > :52:50.at each other all the time. I do agree with him, because that is
:52:51. > :52:53.a perversion of democracy. You're perverting the
:52:54. > :52:54.course of democracy. If you do those deals,
:52:55. > :52:56.and stand down? I'm afraid so, but I did say
:52:57. > :53:00.I would do a deal with the Tories. We wont stand in Cheltenham
:53:01. > :53:02.if they don't stand Deal or no deal, the
:53:03. > :53:09.candidates are now set. So, Daniel, why are Ukip only
:53:10. > :53:27.standing in fewer than half Well, we don't have the funding
:53:28. > :53:33.capacity that some of the parties have. When not funded by investment
:53:34. > :53:40.bankers are trade unions are things like this. To the centre some of the
:53:41. > :53:47.other parties. You could afford a couple of quid for a candidate or
:53:48. > :53:49.two? Look at the political spectrum and you have the Goliath that is the
:53:50. > :53:54.Tory party and we are a small party Tory party and we are a small party
:53:55. > :54:03.and we rely on the contributions of come people coming up to us on the
:54:04. > :54:06.streets making donations. Well, you got a little donation from Peter
:54:07. > :54:13.Hargreaves, he contributed millions to the Brexit campaign. Going back
:54:14. > :54:16.to the point about why we are filming candidates where we are
:54:17. > :54:19.fielding candidates, there are no deals being done, we are not in the
:54:20. > :54:26.business of making deals. We tried to fight where we think we can win.
:54:27. > :54:30.With limited resources, you have to be tactical about where you are
:54:31. > :54:37.going to put your eggs in the basket? These are areas where we had
:54:38. > :54:39.tremendous amounts of Lea support and that's where we are campaigning.
:54:40. > :54:42.Jacob, do you think it's right that Ukip stand aside
:54:43. > :54:55.there wasn't the need for one there wasn't the need for one
:54:56. > :55:00.because Mrs May has united what you might call the broad Tory family. In
:55:01. > :55:01.my own area, North Somerset, a lot of people who backed Ukip are
:55:02. > :55:07.returning to the Conservative Party. returning to the Conservative Party.
:55:08. > :55:10.Brexit has been voted through and their main political aim has been
:55:11. > :55:28.achieved. That is a really difficult problem for Ukip as a party. Palin?
:55:29. > :55:33.Helen? The Tories have become blue-chip. There are a bunch of
:55:34. > :55:34.people who I would have called natural Tories were very
:55:35. > :55:37.uncomfortable about the way that the uncomfortable about the way that the
:55:38. > :55:46.party is going. They are now looking for other options. Are they looking
:55:47. > :55:49.to the Greens would ever to try and get this Progressive Alliance. My
:55:50. > :55:54.problem with the progressive alliances it paints politics into a
:55:55. > :56:04.conservative and anti-Conservative position. It's much more, kidnapped.
:56:05. > :56:06.-- it's much more, located the mat. If it's much more, located them
:56:07. > :56:17.that. Sarah? I do agree that it's a that. Sarah? I do agree that it's a
:56:18. > :56:21.shame people end up having to make deals because our voting system only
:56:22. > :56:25.allows one of two people to win. The Labour Party is not making deals. We
:56:26. > :56:30.have got a very strong set of policies that we want people to have
:56:31. > :56:36.the choice to vote on. When I am talking to people there is, I'm
:56:37. > :56:39.sorry to have to say this, very little relevance for Ukip now,
:56:40. > :56:42.because people are voting Conservative. They want to see a
:56:43. > :56:47.high-pressure pick-up Ukip has become a wing of the -- they want a
:56:48. > :56:55.hard Brexit because Ukip has become a wing of the Tory party. The sense
:56:56. > :57:01.that people are out to punish Labour? No, I don't think people are
:57:02. > :57:09.right to punish Labour in anyway. I think people are looking -- out to
:57:10. > :57:15.punish Labour. Did you mention Mr Corbyn much on the doorsteps your
:57:16. > :57:22.ex-army aren't you? And your husband is as well right? Mr Corbyn said
:57:23. > :57:27.that Britain has an 40 just wasn't 1945, do you agree that? I think
:57:28. > :57:32.there a debate to be had about that. The just War theory is about why
:57:33. > :57:40.politicians and us to war not why we are there? Mr Corbyn was the only
:57:41. > :57:42.man to spend any time at the Cenotaph talking directions
:57:43. > :57:50.afterwards rather than going in for dinner. Mr Corbyn at his views, he
:57:51. > :57:57.and I would have a good to be debate about just war theory. You can see
:57:58. > :58:03.why people in the arms forces might think that he might not get a lot of
:58:04. > :58:06.support? I think, from my perspective, I have no issue with
:58:07. > :58:10.it. The Labour Party has a very strong history of supporting events.
:58:11. > :58:14.The biggest damage done to defence in the last 20 years was at the
:58:15. > :58:19.hands of the Tory led coalition, and having to administer that, the dent
:58:20. > :58:23.in morale and hollowing out of capability has not been forgotten.
:58:24. > :58:31.The strategic defence Security review... Daniel, people are saying
:58:32. > :58:36.on the streets, what is the point of Ukip? I would say to those people
:58:37. > :58:41.that the deal has not been done, it is not finished, the ink is not
:58:42. > :58:44.drive. We are the only party that is 100% passionate for getting out of
:58:45. > :58:49.the EU. We put the pressure onto the Tories to bring us the rest random,
:58:50. > :58:59.that pressure is not going away. You used to a conservative didn't you?
:59:00. > :59:10.Yes I did. Why didn't you go back? Why didn't because I see everyday
:59:11. > :59:21.people in Gloucester and around the country that Ukip is a party is a
:59:22. > :59:26.party for working people while the parties are not Conservatives not
:59:27. > :59:33.doing better? Given that we had a decade of austerity. We went up
:59:34. > :59:41.about six on our percent in local elections last week, -- 6.5%. In my
:59:42. > :59:48.tat we were absolutely leather, we lost two we gained two. -- in my
:59:49. > :59:53.patch we were absolutely level. We lost two we gained two. What we are
:59:54. > :00:00.saying is that the polls are moving but I think that is masking tactical
:00:01. > :00:04.voting. If Lib Dem voters are voting Labour to get the Tories out, well,
:00:05. > :00:12.there are more label sheets and Lib Dem seats. Very quickly last
:00:13. > :00:15.question to Jacob. What is the most negative thing you're hearing about
:00:16. > :00:25.the Conservatives? It is extremely positive. Mrs May... I'm not getting
:00:26. > :00:31.a negative response on the doorstep NHS social care education?
:00:32. > :00:36.Inevitably there are people who don't like the Conservatives and
:00:37. > :00:39.won't vote from me and by the same degree Mrs May, and I sometimes get
:00:40. > :00:46.a fruity response on the doorstep which is part of political life. But
:00:47. > :00:52.mostly it is very positive. The one thing is that Mrs May is too
:00:53. > :00:55.popular. Thank you, that is enough freaky stuff from Jacob.
:00:56. > :00:58.Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out
:00:59. > :01:06.of time. On Thursday nominations closed
:01:07. > :01:10.in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,
:01:11. > :01:13.so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'
:01:14. > :01:20.candidates to find out what they might tell us
:01:21. > :01:22.about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is
:01:23. > :01:27.committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative
:01:28. > :01:32.candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,
:01:33. > :01:34.37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum
:01:35. > :01:42.campaign and 20 supported remain; 43
:01:43. > :01:44.have not made public In the last parliament,
:01:45. > :01:51.the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how
:01:52. > :01:53.supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's
:01:54. > :01:59.top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed
:02:00. > :02:02.support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith
:02:03. > :02:07.in last year's leadership contest or have expressed
:02:08. > :02:11.anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,
:02:12. > :02:16.the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic
:02:17. > :02:19.to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us
:02:20. > :02:21.about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not
:02:22. > :02:25.to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,
:02:26. > :02:27.and are fielding 629 candidates this year -
:02:28. > :02:30.that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has
:02:31. > :02:33.fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer
:02:34. > :02:39.constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind
:02:40. > :02:42.solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes
:02:43. > :02:46.and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding
:02:47. > :02:50.103 fewer candidates than at the last election,
:02:51. > :03:01.standing down to help other progressive candidates
:03:02. > :03:14.in some places. The most liking statistic is the
:03:15. > :03:20.demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It
:03:21. > :03:28.is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard
:03:29. > :03:38.to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think
:03:39. > :03:42.this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of
:03:43. > :03:45.the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the
:03:46. > :03:49.consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that
:03:50. > :03:53.could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's
:03:54. > :03:59.precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was
:04:00. > :04:04.incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of
:04:05. > :04:11.over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it
:04:12. > :04:17.will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now
:04:18. > :04:21.leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole
:04:22. > :04:29.lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer
:04:30. > :04:32.listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,
:04:33. > :04:41.and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory
:04:42. > :04:46.vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one
:04:47. > :04:50.of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't
:04:51. > :04:54.take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the
:04:55. > :05:01.centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal
:05:02. > :05:05.Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly
:05:06. > :05:11.perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is
:05:12. > :05:16.only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean
:05:17. > :05:21.the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David
:05:22. > :05:24.Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in
:05:25. > :05:29.Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is
:05:30. > :05:35.disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in
:05:36. > :05:40.the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in
:05:41. > :05:43.France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't
:05:44. > :05:48.get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,
:05:49. > :05:54.and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has
:05:55. > :05:58.seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with
:05:59. > :06:01.some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the
:06:02. > :06:05.analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory
:06:06. > :06:09.candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the
:06:10. > :06:14.referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all
:06:15. > :06:17.about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable
:06:18. > :06:22.position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that
:06:23. > :06:28.I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are
:06:29. > :06:34.seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on
:06:35. > :06:38.them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the
:06:39. > :06:43.law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some
:06:44. > :06:50.of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being
:06:51. > :06:55.called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour
:06:56. > :07:00.Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring
:07:01. > :07:05.bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me
:07:06. > :07:12.bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.
:07:13. > :07:21.And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it
:07:22. > :07:25.wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the
:07:26. > :07:31.north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For
:07:32. > :07:36.me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.
:07:37. > :07:39.This will be, I think, the most important day for the British
:07:40. > :07:47.government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You
:07:48. > :07:52.actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday
:07:53. > :08:01.Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...
:08:02. > :08:05.I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get
:08:06. > :08:09.the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will
:08:10. > :08:15.lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take
:08:16. > :08:18.some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and
:08:19. > :08:22.theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will
:08:23. > :08:25.say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,
:08:26. > :08:30.though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver
:08:31. > :08:32.in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but
:08:33. > :08:46.she does have very different ideas from
:08:47. > :08:48.Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to
:08:49. > :08:51.mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no
:08:52. > :08:54.point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you
:08:55. > :08:57.get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne
:08:58. > :09:00.manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the
:09:01. > :09:04.pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the
:09:05. > :09:09.degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its
:09:10. > :09:14.time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way
:09:15. > :09:19.this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair
:09:20. > :09:24.Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of
:09:25. > :09:27.government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you
:09:28. > :09:31.have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the
:09:32. > :09:35.state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will
:09:36. > :09:42.be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant
:09:43. > :09:45.way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked
:09:46. > :09:53.about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the
:09:54. > :09:58.state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to
:09:59. > :10:03.be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big
:10:04. > :10:09.victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note
:10:10. > :10:15.of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I
:10:16. > :10:20.was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet
:10:21. > :10:24.meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on
:10:25. > :10:30.anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving
:10:31. > :10:37.all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?
:10:38. > :10:43.I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers
:10:44. > :10:49.in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.
:10:50. > :11:00.On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called
:11:01. > :11:04.Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick
:11:05. > :11:11.Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and
:11:12. > :11:14.leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the
:11:15. > :11:19.party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that
:11:20. > :11:23.is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them
:11:24. > :11:32.that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for
:11:33. > :11:39.good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...
:11:40. > :11:47.It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What
:11:48. > :11:51.happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to
:11:52. > :11:57.that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in
:11:58. > :12:00.the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small
:12:01. > :12:05.majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff
:12:06. > :12:09.for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this
:12:10. > :12:14.active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is
:12:15. > :12:18.a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets
:12:19. > :12:23.nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for
:12:24. > :12:27.Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be
:12:28. > :12:32.seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument
:12:33. > :12:36.around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit
:12:37. > :12:41.unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over
:12:42. > :12:48.the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong
:12:49. > :12:52.ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from
:12:53. > :13:00.the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating
:13:01. > :13:02.week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.
:13:03. > :13:05.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon
:13:06. > :13:09.I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.
:13:10. > :13:44.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
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