0:00:36 > 0:00:38Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:38 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:39 > 0:00:42And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:42 > 0:00:46are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:46 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:51 > 0:00:54show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:54 > 0:00:59but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:01 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:05 > 0:01:09- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:09 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:15 > 0:01:18a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:18 > 0:01:21about Brexit.
0:01:21 > 0:01:25And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:27 > 0:01:30finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:30 > 0:01:32Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:32 > 0:01:35In the West: A hand up or a hand-out?
0:01:35 > 0:01:37Foodbanks say they're expecting a busy Christmas -
0:01:37 > 0:01:42but is the Government's new benefit system making things worse?
0:01:49 > 0:01:51All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:51 > 0:01:54And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:54 > 0:01:58not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:58 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:00 > 0:02:04it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:04 > 0:02:07Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:07 > 0:02:09this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:09 > 0:02:11plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:11 > 0:02:13in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:13 > 0:02:16The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:16 > 0:02:20including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:23 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:25 > 0:02:29300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:29 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:33 > 0:02:36Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:36 > 0:02:39a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:42 > 0:02:45a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:45 > 0:02:48But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:51 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:53 > 0:02:57So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:57 > 0:02:59and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:02:59 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:03 > 0:03:06I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:06 > 0:03:09and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:09 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:10 > 0:03:13They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:13 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:19 > 0:03:22time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:22 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:25 > 0:03:29We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31Nurses, for example.
0:03:31 > 0:03:33We've had people who are now...
0:03:33 > 0:03:381.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:38 > 0:03:39country in the world.
0:03:39 > 0:03:47That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:47 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:52 > 0:03:57but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:57 > 0:04:01to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:01 > 0:04:06set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:06 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:11 > 0:04:15across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:15 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:24 > 0:04:27short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:27 > 0:04:32They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:32 > 0:04:36capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:36 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:41 > 0:04:49good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:49 > 0:04:54Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:54 > 0:04:57anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:57 > 0:05:06MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:06 > 0:05:09seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:09 > 0:05:14in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:14 > 0:05:18for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:18 > 0:05:23through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:23 > 0:05:30ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:30 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:38 > 0:05:43how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:43 > 0:05:48everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:48 > 0:05:53for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:53 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:06 > 0:06:11absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:11 > 0:06:16apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:16 > 0:06:19Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:19 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:27 > 0:06:36dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:36 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:44 > 0:06:50cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:50 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:00 > 0:07:06worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:06 > 0:07:12on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:12 > 0:07:16and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:16 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:24 > 0:07:30impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:30 > 0:07:35last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:35 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:40 > 0:07:47is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:47 > 0:07:52party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:52 > 0:08:01damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:01 > 0:08:08in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:08 > 0:08:13inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:13 > 0:08:18probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:18 > 0:08:23pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:23 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:25 > 0:08:28he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:28 > 0:08:30the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:30 > 0:08:34of leaving the EU.
0:08:34 > 0:08:38Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:38 > 0:08:47radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:47 > 0:08:51London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:51 > 0:08:56will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:56 > 0:09:00the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:09:00 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:05 > 0:09:10is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:10 > 0:09:15modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:15 > 0:09:19which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:19 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:26 > 0:09:32The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:32 > 0:09:35classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:35 > 0:09:40trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:40 > 0:09:48a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:48 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:55 > 0:10:01the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:01 > 0:10:05have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:05 > 0:10:09nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:09 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:14 > 0:10:21euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:21 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:27 > 0:10:36who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:36 > 0:10:40exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:40 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:45 > 0:10:49Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:49 > 0:10:54you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:54 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:11:00 > 0:11:03short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:03 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:09 > 0:11:12political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:12 > 0:11:17same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:17 > 0:11:21You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:21 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:52 > 0:11:57is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:57 > 0:12:02encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:02 > 0:12:07approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:07 > 0:12:14close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:14 > 0:12:18and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:18 > 0:12:22exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:22 > 0:12:27thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:27 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:33 > 0:12:38absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:42 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:49 > 0:12:52referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:52 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:57 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:09 > 0:13:15£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:15 > 0:13:21NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:21 > 0:13:27won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:27 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:31 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:35 > 0:13:40Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:40 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:44 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:48 > 0:13:54things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:54 > 0:14:00exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:00 > 0:14:04will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:04 > 0:14:10or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:10 > 0:14:14part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:14 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:19 > 0:14:23choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:23 > 0:14:27schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:27 > 0:14:37government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:37 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:41 > 0:14:48left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:48 > 0:14:54remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:54 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:13 > 0:15:17on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:17 > 0:15:21of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:21 > 0:15:30if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:30 > 0:15:40is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:40 > 0:15:44makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:44 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:52 > 0:15:54would.
0:15:54 > 0:15:56We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:56 > 0:15:57Stephen Hammond.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:16:00 > 0:16:03of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:03 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:04 > 0:16:07this week - lucky him.
0:16:07 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:12 > 0:16:21on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:21 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:26 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:31 > 0:16:35negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:35 > 0:16:42expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:42 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:47 > 0:16:52harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:52 > 0:16:56negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:56 > 0:17:00couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:17:00 > 0:17:05and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:05 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:11 > 0:17:15said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:15 > 0:17:21advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:21 > 0:17:25somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:25 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:32 > 0:17:38that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:38 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:47 > 0:17:54between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:54 > 0:17:57interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:57 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:05 > 0:18:10would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:10 > 0:18:14through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:14 > 0:18:19completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:19 > 0:18:23don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:23 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:29 > 0:18:32settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:32 > 0:18:39that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:39 > 0:18:43for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:43 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:53 > 0:18:57billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:57 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:01 > 0:19:07deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:07 > 0:19:12that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:12 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:28 > 0:19:32Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:32 > 0:19:40don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:40 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:49 > 0:19:53others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:53 > 0:19:58shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:58 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:11 > 0:20:16would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:16 > 0:20:21suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:21 > 0:20:26we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:26 > 0:20:32No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:32 > 0:20:37It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:37 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:20:59 > 0:21:05suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:05 > 0:21:12you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:12 > 0:21:19flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:19 > 0:21:26drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:26 > 0:21:31the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:31 > 0:21:36view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:36 > 0:21:43the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:43 > 0:21:48Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:48 > 0:21:53that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:53 > 0:21:57economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:57 > 0:22:04price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:04 > 0:22:08biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:08 > 0:22:15in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:15 > 0:22:23additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:23 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:26 > 0:22:33can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:33 > 0:22:40model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:40 > 0:22:46job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:46 > 0:22:50economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:50 > 0:22:54business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:54 > 0:23:00much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:23:00 > 0:23:04There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:04 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:06 > 0:23:12interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:14 > 0:23:17to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:17 > 0:23:19free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:19 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:21 > 0:23:26and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:26 > 0:23:29Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:29 > 0:23:31of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:31 > 0:23:33We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:33 > 0:23:36she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:36 > 0:23:40Here's her film.
0:23:46 > 0:23:49I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:49 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:52 > 0:23:57and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:57 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:04 > 0:24:07I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:07 > 0:24:09of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:09 > 0:24:12the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:12 > 0:24:14better off outside.
0:24:14 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:17 > 0:24:21the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:21 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:25 > 0:24:28experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:28 > 0:24:30The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:30 > 0:24:35But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:37 > 0:24:40Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:40 > 0:24:43Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:43 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:44 > 0:24:49the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:49 > 0:24:54German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:54 > 0:25:00long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:25:00 > 0:25:03Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:03 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:05 > 0:25:12that to go away.
0:25:12 > 0:25:17German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:17 > 0:25:20out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:20 > 0:25:23positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:23 > 0:25:26with the United Kingdom.
0:25:26 > 0:25:29BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:29 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:33 > 0:25:38The UK is a vital market.
0:25:38 > 0:25:42What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:42 > 0:25:46because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:46 > 0:25:51it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:51 > 0:25:55but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:55 > 0:25:58and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:58 > 0:26:01the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:01 > 0:26:03what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:03 > 0:26:06moving across the continent?
0:26:06 > 0:26:08Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:08 > 0:26:12And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:12 > 0:26:14Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:14 > 0:26:18is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:18 > 0:26:20German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:20 > 0:26:24who will suffer.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:26 > 0:26:28the first phase successfully.
0:26:28 > 0:26:32The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:32 > 0:26:34consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:34 > 0:26:38And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:38 > 0:26:41It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:41 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:44 > 0:26:47a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:47 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:56 > 0:27:01It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:01 > 0:27:04Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:04 > 0:27:08but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:08 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:12 > 0:27:16Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:16 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.
0:27:25 > 0:27:27Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:27 > 0:27:29and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:29 > 0:27:34Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:34 > 0:27:36then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:36 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?
0:27:37 > 0:27:40It's absolutely true.
0:27:40 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.
0:27:42 > 0:27:48One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:48 > 0:27:51between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:51 > 0:27:54If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:54 > 0:27:58then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:58 > 0:28:03Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:03 > 0:28:07free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:07 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:15 > 0:28:18and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:18 > 0:28:21deal we can achieve.
0:28:21 > 0:28:23Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:23 > 0:28:26As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:26 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:31 > 0:28:35But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:35 > 0:28:37economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:37 > 0:28:43and that is German business.
0:28:43 > 0:28:45That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:45 > 0:28:47and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:47 > 0:28:49of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:49 > 0:28:52Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:52 > 0:28:54He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:54 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:56 > 0:28:59and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:28:59 > 0:29:01he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:01 > 0:29:06Welcome both of you.
0:29:06 > 0:29:11We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:11 > 0:29:16business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:16 > 0:29:19their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:19 > 0:29:25said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:25 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:30 > 0:29:37states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:37 > 0:29:42the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:42 > 0:29:50tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:50 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:53 > 0:30:01that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:01 > 0:30:05of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:05 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:12 > 0:30:19as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:19 > 0:30:25the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:25 > 0:30:29biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:29 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:35 > 0:30:40wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:40 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:47 > 0:30:53side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:53 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:57 > 0:31:01good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:01 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:10 > 0:31:17us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:17 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:21 > 0:31:26Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:26 > 0:31:32Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:32 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:38 > 0:31:44be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:44 > 0:31:51end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:51 > 0:31:58deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:58 > 0:32:05there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:05 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:09 > 0:32:13decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:13 > 0:32:18have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:18 > 0:32:23referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:23 > 0:32:29interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:29 > 0:32:36stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:36 > 0:32:49was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:49 > 0:32:54There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:54 > 0:32:59change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:59 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:09 > 0:33:14together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:14 > 0:33:20don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:20 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:31 > 0:33:37I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:37 > 0:33:43what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:43 > 0:33:48democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:48 > 0:33:52its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:52 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:58 > 0:34:03encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:03 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:08 > 0:34:13are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:13 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:18 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:28 > 0:34:37Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:37 > 0:34:43minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:43 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:52 > 0:34:57either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:57 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:02 > 0:35:11stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:11 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:21 > 0:35:27Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:27 > 0:35:31reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:31 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:43 > 0:35:50You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:50 > 0:35:54business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:54 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:58 > 0:36:02find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:02 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:06 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:11 > 0:36:20encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:20 > 0:36:23out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:23 > 0:36:27time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:27 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:31 > 0:36:37still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:37 > 0:36:45I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:45 > 0:36:49incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:49 > 0:36:54the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:54 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:59 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:08 > 0:37:14to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:14 > 0:37:23the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:23 > 0:37:29a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:29 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:34 > 0:37:40spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:40 > 0:37:46the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:46 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:51 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:57 > 0:38:03want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:03 > 0:38:10the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:10 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:15 > 0:38:20they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:25 > 0:38:28opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:28 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:30 > 0:38:39the economy.
0:38:39 > 0:38:41Good morning and welcome to a live edition of
0:38:41 > 0:38:46Sunday Politics here in the West.
0:38:46 > 0:38:48Coming up: To fund or not to fund?
0:38:48 > 0:38:50Austerity has meant big cuts in grants for local
0:38:50 > 0:38:52arts organisations.
0:38:52 > 0:38:58But should our taxes be funding the arts at all?
0:38:58 > 0:39:01I'm joined by two politicians who have promised dramatic
0:39:01 > 0:39:03performances this morning.
0:39:03 > 0:39:06They are the Conservative MP for Salisbury, John Glen,
0:39:06 > 0:39:08and the Labour MP for Stroud, David Drew.
0:39:08 > 0:39:09Welcome to you both.
0:39:09 > 0:39:11First, the papers are full of all sorts of speculation
0:39:11 > 0:39:15about next week's budget.
0:39:15 > 0:39:17And the Chancellor was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.
0:39:17 > 0:39:20He seemed to drop big hints that he will announce
0:39:20 > 0:39:26new measures on house-building.
0:39:26 > 0:39:30To start to make inroads on the affordability problem, we've got to
0:39:30 > 0:39:37be sustainably delivering around 300,000 homes a year on average
0:39:37 > 0:39:41across the housing cycle. That's a big step up from where we are now.
0:39:41 > 0:39:44There is no single magic bullet and it's certainly not just about
0:39:44 > 0:39:51putting money in because if you pour money in without fixing other
0:39:51 > 0:39:56elements of supply, you will lead to inflation which makes the problem
0:39:56 > 0:40:01worse, not better.
0:40:02 > 0:40:06John, what is the average price of a house in Salisbury?Too high, too
0:40:06 > 0:40:10high for young people to get on the ladder and that's a challenge across
0:40:10 > 0:40:16the country and I'm glad the Chancellor seems he is going to
0:40:16 > 0:40:20include it in this budget.a beautiful area, would you welcome
0:40:20 > 0:40:25new housing estate in Salisbury? It's a difficult issue and lots of
0:40:25 > 0:40:28people campaign about where new housing needs to go but the
0:40:28 > 0:40:34Chancellor said the issue is not just about more money it's about the
0:40:34 > 0:40:37processes and there are large numbers of permissions granted
0:40:37 > 0:40:43across the country and houses aren't being built.Stroud isn't cheap
0:40:43 > 0:40:49either, is it? Do you think the Government can actually deliver and
0:40:49 > 0:40:53build houses?It can, but it can help local authorities. I have asked
0:40:53 > 0:41:01the Government, we have bought our stock from the Government and we now
0:41:01 > 0:41:03have Stroud district council completely owning the stock. We need
0:41:03 > 0:41:09the Government to get off our backs, allow us to borrow and stop taking
0:41:09 > 0:41:1370% from their council houses sold. We want to borrow to build council
0:41:13 > 0:41:16houses goes we need affordable social housing, not more executive
0:41:16 > 0:41:28housing. . We need cheaper houses for people to rent and buy from the
0:41:28 > 0:41:32council but it's got to be at the lower end of the market. We do not
0:41:32 > 0:41:39need more executive housing. That's the problem.They make a profit.Of
0:41:39 > 0:41:43course they do, and that's why we've got to change it.It's about houses
0:41:43 > 0:41:46for young people, lots of young people are desperate to get on the
0:41:46 > 0:41:50ladder and it's about making sure we put the right incentives in place.
0:41:50 > 0:41:54There will always need to be some council housing. In Salisbury we
0:41:54 > 0:41:59have seen new council housing. Quite a lot. I don't know the exact number
0:41:59 > 0:42:06but we have seen more council housing. It's about a pragmatic
0:42:06 > 0:42:08solution, not an ideological view, and each area has a different
0:42:08 > 0:42:12challenge in finding the right site. I know the Chancellor will know
0:42:12 > 0:42:14about the processes as well as the money.
0:42:14 > 0:42:16John Glen, what could the Chancellor announce that
0:42:16 > 0:42:19would help your constituency?
0:42:19 > 0:42:29You could get off our backs -- he could. We want more affordable
0:42:29 > 0:42:32social housing and that's where the pressure has got to be, the state
0:42:32 > 0:42:39has got to play its role but we've got a job house-builders -- we've
0:42:39 > 0:42:45got to tell the house-builders.I think it is fixing the issues were
0:42:45 > 0:42:49permissions granted for planning and people aren't building. He has to
0:42:49 > 0:42:56deliver on that.Take the land away from them if they don't use it?Use
0:42:56 > 0:43:04it or lose it. I have been looking for permissions so that people are
0:43:04 > 0:43:08under obligation to build the houses they have planning permission for.
0:43:08 > 0:43:11We need radical solution because this problem has gone on far too
0:43:11 > 0:43:12long.
0:43:12 > 0:43:15There's speculation the Government may be forced into making changes
0:43:15 > 0:43:16to its new benefits system.
0:43:16 > 0:43:19Universal Credit is presently being rolled out across the West country.
0:43:19 > 0:43:22But in areas like Somerset, which went first, people say
0:43:22 > 0:43:25they have to wait 40 days before they receive their money.
0:43:25 > 0:43:29Here's Paul Barltrop.
0:43:29 > 0:43:32In a prosperous town in one of the world's
0:43:32 > 0:43:38wealthiest countries, a sign of poverty.
0:43:38 > 0:43:41At Taunton's foodbank, they're about to open the doors.
0:43:41 > 0:43:43If they have got benefit changes on their vouchers,
0:43:43 > 0:43:46could you just ask them what benefit they are on and what their date
0:43:46 > 0:43:48is for Universal Credit to start?
0:43:48 > 0:43:58Staff are all too aware of the Government's new benefit.
0:43:58 > 0:44:01This young family have applied for it, but it may be six
0:44:01 > 0:44:02weeks before the first payment comes through.
0:44:02 > 0:44:05Right now we're trying to get by because we've just
0:44:05 > 0:44:07got Universal Credit, we've just done all the meetings,
0:44:07 > 0:44:11I got one more meeting to do and then I go to wait at least 40
0:44:11 > 0:44:14days is just getting by those 40 days will be hard.
0:44:14 > 0:44:16Unemployed Andrew Harvey is about to be transferred
0:44:16 > 0:44:20onto Universal Credit.
0:44:20 > 0:44:23It means I've got an extra month to survive and I may have to survive
0:44:23 > 0:44:27at least six to eight weeks before I have any money to buy any food
0:44:27 > 0:44:29or pay any bills and stuff, which is paid fortnightly.
0:44:29 > 0:44:30Will that be difficult?
0:44:30 > 0:44:34It will be absolutely difficult, yeah.
0:44:34 > 0:44:38Universal Credit came to Taunton a year ago.
0:44:38 > 0:44:40Since then, the foodbank's seen the number of people
0:44:40 > 0:44:41seeking help jump by half.
0:44:41 > 0:44:44We were shocked, actually.
0:44:44 > 0:44:48We had an idea that Universal Credit was coming to the Taunton area
0:44:48 > 0:44:50so we were prepared for a small increase, but nothing
0:44:50 > 0:44:52like the figures we've seen.
0:44:52 > 0:44:56Personally, it's very difficult to see people at such a loss of not
0:44:56 > 0:45:02knowing what to do and that such a low ebb, really.
0:45:02 > 0:45:07The 50% rise recorded in Taunton is one of the biggest.
0:45:07 > 0:45:11At Bath's foodbank, the year on year increase is 39%.
0:45:11 > 0:45:16Nationally, the Trussell Trust say they're seeing an average surge
0:45:16 > 0:45:19of 30% after Universal Credit starts rolling out.
0:45:19 > 0:45:22That compares with a 12% increase in areas where it's not yet arrived.
0:45:22 > 0:45:25Visiting Bath on Tuesday, the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown spoke
0:45:25 > 0:45:28out not just about how Universal Credit's being handled,
0:45:28 > 0:45:38but also wider cuts in welfare spending.
0:45:39 > 0:45:41They simply have not put the resources in to do it
0:45:41 > 0:45:43and worse than that, they're cutting £3 billion out
0:45:43 > 0:45:46of the amount of social security expenditure available for poorer
0:45:46 > 0:45:49people and therefore it is bound to be a disaster and it
0:45:49 > 0:45:50already is a disaster.
0:45:50 > 0:45:51It's been raised repeatedly in Parliament.
0:45:51 > 0:45:54On Wednesday, Labour again went on the attack,
0:45:54 > 0:45:59though the Prime Minister's defence wasn't quite as robust as before.
0:45:59 > 0:46:01There have been concerns raised in this house previously
0:46:01 > 0:46:03over the issue of people managing their budgets to pay rent,
0:46:03 > 0:46:11but what we actually see is that over...
0:46:11 > 0:46:14We see that after four months, the number of people
0:46:14 > 0:46:18on Universal Credit in arrears has fallen by a third.
0:46:18 > 0:46:20Some struggling claimants end up here.
0:46:20 > 0:46:23The roll-out of Universal Credit has just started in Stroud.
0:46:23 > 0:46:25The local Credit Union is already giving out loans
0:46:25 > 0:46:28to tide people over.
0:46:28 > 0:46:30But one recipient tells me, delay aside, the new system
0:46:30 > 0:46:33is an improvement.
0:46:33 > 0:46:35For me, going on to Universal Credit is completely changed
0:46:36 > 0:46:38my life for the good.
0:46:38 > 0:46:41It put the focus of my finances on myself and I was in control
0:46:41 > 0:46:47of what I had to do, and it's a much more simpler system.
0:46:47 > 0:46:50I haven't got six different benefits, you've just got one
0:46:50 > 0:46:53where you pay once a month and, to me, that is a godsend.
0:46:53 > 0:46:56It's so much more simple.
0:46:56 > 0:46:58There's been ongoing controversy since the national
0:46:58 > 0:46:59roll out began in 2015.
0:46:59 > 0:47:06It's not due to be finished for another five years.
0:47:12 > 0:47:17John, most people seem to agree Universal Credit will be beneficial
0:47:17 > 0:47:21to most people but getting on it, there is this painful gap of 40
0:47:21 > 0:47:26days. I couldn't manage without money for 40 days, could you?We got
0:47:26 > 0:47:29to remember everyone moving on to Universal Credit also has access to
0:47:29 > 0:47:34emergency payments to tide them over to when they get that first payment
0:47:34 > 0:47:38and I think the Government are looking at it and is a lot of
0:47:38 > 0:47:44speculation.they seem to have dug in.We've got a recognised the
0:47:44 > 0:47:49massive advantage in the film said about having a single payment.
0:47:49 > 0:47:57People are very frustrated to see Gordon Brown back from his demise
0:47:57 > 0:48:00talking about more benefits. It was them that created such a complex
0:48:00 > 0:48:05system that left people in a very difficult circumstance.Did you cope
0:48:05 > 0:48:11without money for 40 days?That is a mechanism... I have in the past, I
0:48:11 > 0:48:18have struggled, I have had times in my life, is not ideal and
0:48:18 > 0:48:21unsympathetic, we've got to sort it out but the Government have ruled it
0:48:21 > 0:48:29out over a long period to try and get it right -- rolled it out.
0:48:29 > 0:48:32Across the political spectrum, people think Universal Credit is
0:48:32 > 0:48:36beneficial so it has got to be rolled out somehow, hasn't it?DS
0:48:36 > 0:48:43but it's got to be pulled out property and the difficulty is it's
0:48:43 > 0:48:54a loan. It's a loan shark. For all the complexity of tax credits,
0:48:54 > 0:48:59people were substantially better off. Now they're not. The child
0:48:59 > 0:49:03poverty action group brought out a report a week ago that showed this.
0:49:03 > 0:49:07Google is the benefit into one but two goals less benefits into one --
0:49:07 > 0:49:17it rolls less benefits into one but it rolls less benefits into one. We
0:49:17 > 0:49:20found I guess today there because December is a five-week month, we've
0:49:20 > 0:49:24now got the ludicrous situation that thousands of not millions of people
0:49:24 > 0:49:29could be forced off the Universal Credit for a period of time and then
0:49:29 > 0:49:36have to reapply, it's madness. We have to get it right then we will
0:49:36 > 0:49:41join with the Government and see how it could work properly.What would
0:49:41 > 0:49:51you do?Posit, get it right, stop the misery.how would you get it
0:49:51 > 0:49:54right?The migration of people is where the real issues are going to
0:49:54 > 0:49:58come. Housing benefits are going to be a nightmare.I think you've seen
0:49:58 > 0:50:03thousands of people move on to Universal Credit. It can be a
0:50:03 > 0:50:07difficult transition but when that transition is made, people value the
0:50:07 > 0:50:16fact they got a simpler benefit system. It incentivised as... Work
0:50:16 > 0:50:19and fewer people are likely to be an job-seeker's allowance.Gordon Brown
0:50:19 > 0:50:26said the benefits budget is less than they used to get.I don't think
0:50:26 > 0:50:30there is a great public appetite to be increasing benefit payments.
0:50:30 > 0:50:35We've seen a record number of people over the last seven years in
0:50:35 > 0:50:40unemployment. We've got the lowest unemployment. We need a benefit
0:50:40 > 0:50:43system that looks after the most vulnerable but also create
0:50:43 > 0:50:46incentives to get into work.
0:50:46 > 0:50:49John, the Trussell Trust is based in your constituency.
0:50:49 > 0:50:57Why do you think more people are using food banks?
0:50:57 > 0:51:02When I looked at this on an all-party basis a few years ago. We
0:51:02 > 0:51:09found a number of the people using foodbanks had a number of issues in
0:51:09 > 0:51:15addition.you haven't got any money coming in, you have to use it.The
0:51:15 > 0:51:19tip of the iceberg, there's lots of complexity in people's lives that
0:51:19 > 0:51:23makes them happy Woodruff the bank. I acknowledge there are challenges
0:51:23 > 0:51:26with the delivery of benefits in some circumstances and I think the
0:51:26 > 0:51:29Government is working hard to address it. We may see some
0:51:29 > 0:51:38announcements next week.We should posit and then all work together to
0:51:38 > 0:51:41get the system working together. It is too important that we don't drive
0:51:41 > 0:51:43people into poverty.
0:51:43 > 0:51:46They say all the world's a stage and we are all
0:51:46 > 0:51:47players, coming and going.
0:51:47 > 0:51:51But in Britain, we are pretty good at strutting our stuff.
0:51:51 > 0:51:54Britain punches above its weight in film, television and the arts.
0:51:54 > 0:51:56But funding at a local level is being reduced.
0:51:56 > 0:52:02Martin Jones has been getting a fix of culture.
0:52:03 > 0:52:08It's called the most popular art exhibition ever.
0:52:08 > 0:52:13A landmark show at Bristol's Arnolfini by Turner Prize
0:52:13 > 0:52:15winner Grayson Perry.
0:52:15 > 0:52:25And it's relied on public funds, despite its popularity.
0:52:30 > 0:52:34I do the kind of art that people like to come and see.
0:52:34 > 0:52:37It's got lots of man hours in it, it's pretty, it's got relevant
0:52:37 > 0:52:39issues that they're interested in.
0:52:39 > 0:52:41It's bang on, so no wonder it's popular.
0:52:41 > 0:52:45200,000 people can't be wrong!
0:52:45 > 0:52:48This will be the last exhibition here at least until next spring.
0:52:48 > 0:52:51Arts Council funding has been generally steady in the West,
0:52:51 > 0:52:56but Arnolfini has lost its grant.
0:52:56 > 0:53:01It means the future is somewhat fragile.
0:53:01 > 0:53:05Another source of funds has seen a dramatic decline.
0:53:05 > 0:53:15Our local councils gave grants of just under 23 million in 2010.
0:53:20 > 0:53:22That was down by over 40% last year to 13.5.
0:53:22 > 0:53:29Many have made further cuts since then.
0:53:29 > 0:53:33At the Rondo Theatre in Bath, then a final rehearsals for a new play by
0:53:33 > 0:53:41Pippa Thornton. The Rondo used to get about 8000 a year from the local
0:53:41 > 0:53:47council but there have been huge cuts to its arts budget and they now
0:53:47 > 0:53:50get nothing. Acting workshops, writing classes and afternoon
0:53:50 > 0:53:54concerts for older people have all taken their final bow.
0:53:54 > 0:53:57It's not just about giving money to luvvies to prance
0:53:57 > 0:53:59about on a stage, it's about supporting local art so that
0:53:59 > 0:54:05new work can take place so that Bath doesn't just become a monoculture
0:54:05 > 0:54:08of heritage wonderland and local pubs and restaurants get the benefit
0:54:08 > 0:54:18from our passing customers.
0:54:21 > 0:54:26Support for funding the arts from the public purse has been dwindling.
0:54:26 > 0:54:31Why should I be forced to buy art that they don't want? It could be
0:54:31 > 0:54:34that you positively disapprove of it. Art isn't like other goods in
0:54:34 > 0:54:38that it can be more controversial, it has ideas and values associated
0:54:38 > 0:54:42with it. I don't make the idea of the state having a role in
0:54:42 > 0:54:47determining where the money goes in art because they are all too
0:54:47 > 0:54:53inclined to use it to peddle a certain ideological agenda.And you
0:54:53 > 0:54:57couldn't accuse Grayson Perry of that.Somebody said to me, what do
0:54:57 > 0:55:01you feel about the fact that public money is going on that nobody likes?
0:55:01 > 0:55:06My responses, a lot of my tax money goes on weapons I don't like so I
0:55:06 > 0:55:16think it is small fry compared to aircraft carriers.It is a
0:55:16 > 0:55:25polarising debate. To fund or not to fund? That is the question.
0:55:28 > 0:55:39We can survive without acting workshops.
0:55:40 > 0:55:43Now we can't. The arts are part of our culture and we need to fund
0:55:43 > 0:55:48them. It's a difficult time because austerity has had this area harder
0:55:48 > 0:55:51than anything else because it was always discretionary in terms of
0:55:51 > 0:55:55local authority payments and sadly we are now seeing is going backwards
0:55:55 > 0:55:59to where we were a generation ago and there are lots of things that we
0:55:59 > 0:56:08support and is -- it's wrong to say... They make their case as we
0:56:08 > 0:56:15funded.You're competing against the big departments need money for
0:56:15 > 0:56:18housing and for defence and education and the NHS. Where do you
0:56:18 > 0:56:24come down the pecking order?I think we recognise as a Government that
0:56:24 > 0:56:29the arts are critically important to people's well-being, sense of place,
0:56:29 > 0:56:33and we also see a combination of funding sought sometimes you see the
0:56:33 > 0:56:36local authority coming in with a gun from the Arts Council and in the
0:56:36 > 0:56:41South West we have had more money this last year from the Arts Council
0:56:41 > 0:56:45than in the previous year and we are seeing more money coming out of
0:56:45 > 0:56:49London across the regions from the Arts Council, that is direct
0:56:49 > 0:56:53Government funding, so I think we're seeing people moving together,
0:56:53 > 0:56:59combining their arts offers. In Salisbury and Bristol bid is a large
0:56:59 > 0:57:06number of artists seeking funding -- there are a large number of artists
0:57:06 > 0:57:10seeking funding. There are challenges to funding but the impact
0:57:10 > 0:57:14in terms of the economic impact of investing in the art is very
0:57:14 > 0:57:18positive.When you add in Downing Street and saying this to the
0:57:18 > 0:57:24Chancellor, what does he say to you? Is very sympathetic. If you look at
0:57:24 > 0:57:30the South West and the Government money that comes through the Arts
0:57:30 > 0:57:34Council it has gone up in the last year sought is not as bleak as you
0:57:34 > 0:57:49suggest about 13 million from the previous year.Is there any public
0:57:49 > 0:57:53spending that you wouldn't approve of?Trident, I think that is
0:57:53 > 0:58:00unnecessary. I know it's Labour policy but some others disagree --
0:58:00 > 0:58:11some of us. The reality is we need debates on this whole area of what
0:58:11 > 0:58:17the state should be involved in. To my mind, the state coming out of a
0:58:17 > 0:58:21steady which I hope we will do under a Labour Government, we've got to
0:58:21 > 0:58:25prioritise spending on education, on health and on benefits because our
0:58:25 > 0:58:29people are suffering and we want a strong economy, but it can only be
0:58:29 > 0:58:37strong with decent public spending. If that means tax rises, so be it?
0:58:37 > 0:58:40With the opposition, it would be nice to know what happens on
0:58:40 > 0:58:44Wednesday whether the Government go for a tax rise. I suspect they will
0:58:44 > 0:58:48because they know we've got to fund the health service more, we've got
0:58:48 > 0:58:56to get education funded because our schools are broke.We don't want to
0:58:56 > 0:59:03get into a situation where we spent 500 million on interest payments.
0:59:03 > 0:59:06Viewers will be interested to know that over 500 billion over the last
0:59:06 > 0:59:13seven years has been spent on debt interest. The previous Labour
0:59:13 > 0:59:22Government run that up.The bankers miss performed.Next week I hope we
0:59:22 > 0:59:28will see a budget that takes irresponsible line investing in
0:59:28 > 0:59:31economic growth, investing in young people, investing in housing, but we
0:59:31 > 0:59:35also need to invest in our public services so I hope the Chancellor
0:59:35 > 0:59:39will be able to find some money for the NHS and the hard-working people
0:59:39 > 0:59:49who have struggled for several years. It's not as simple as one
0:59:49 > 0:59:53thing at the other, we need responsible investment and we can't
0:59:53 > 0:59:57get into a situation where we are spending 10% of our expenditure on
0:59:57 > 1:00:02debt interest payments.Does that mean higher taxes?It means a
1:00:02 > 1:00:04balanced approach in the long term.
1:00:04 > 1:00:06Let's take a look at the rest of the week's political
1:00:06 > 1:00:09news in 60 Seconds.
1:00:09 > 1:00:10Bristol has declared war on litterbugs.
1:00:10 > 1:00:12Council patrols fined more than 600 people for dropping
1:00:12 > 1:00:14rubbish in just one week.
1:00:14 > 1:00:16But is it environmental protection or an easy way to raise money?
1:00:16 > 1:00:23If they don't give the correct name and correct address,
1:00:23 > 1:00:31then they are liable to be taken to court for prosecution.
1:00:31 > 1:00:34300 jobs are to be cut at Bath and North East Somerset
1:00:34 > 1:00:37Council to try to plug a £16 million funding gap.
1:00:37 > 1:00:39The council will also ask the Government for extra cash.
1:00:39 > 1:00:42Councillors in Swindon have given the green
1:00:42 > 1:00:44light to a new ice rink, cinema and hotel.
1:00:44 > 1:00:49They'll be built around the town's Oasis leisure centre.
1:00:49 > 1:00:51It should certainly make a splash.
1:00:51 > 1:00:56And there were pro and anti-Brexit marches in Stroud yesterday.
1:00:56 > 1:00:59One group said Brexit means exit, another waved EU flags.
1:00:59 > 1:01:02The two sides don't agree on much - they even argued on Twitter
1:01:02 > 1:01:12about how many people turned up.
1:01:14 > 1:01:16That's all from us this week.
1:01:16 > 1:01:20My thanks to my guests, John Glen and David Drew.
1:01:20 > 1:01:26Don't forget you can follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.
1:01:26 > 1:01:29And you can watch the show back on the iPlayer, too.
1:01:29 > 1:01:33But for now, it's back to London and Sarah.
1:01:39 > 1:01:42Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:42 > 1:01:45he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:45 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.
1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:53 > 1:01:58Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:58 > 1:02:06MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:06 > 1:02:09All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:09 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:17 > 1:02:24Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:24 > 1:02:27No 7.
1:02:27 > 1:02:33Which one's Tory?
1:02:39 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:40 > 1:02:45elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:45 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:47 > 1:02:50would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:50 > 1:02:52The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:52 > 1:02:53seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:53 > 1:02:54Labour.
1:02:54 > 1:02:55Why?
1:02:55 > 1:02:58Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:58 > 1:03:01For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:01 > 1:03:06Labour always overspend.
1:03:06 > 1:03:12John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:12 > 1:03:17and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:17 > 1:03:19Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:19 > 1:03:21No one.
1:03:21 > 1:03:23Why?
1:03:23 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:28 > 1:03:30reckon they're going to do.
1:03:30 > 1:03:32If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:32 > 1:03:34The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:34 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.
1:03:42 > 1:03:44Oh, hello.
1:03:44 > 1:03:45Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:45 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:46 > 1:03:48Do you? Why's that?
1:03:48 > 1:03:51I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:51 > 1:03:53We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:53 > 1:03:56somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:56 > 1:03:57that's the direction we are
1:03:57 > 1:03:59going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:03:59 > 1:04:01I've got balls!
1:04:01 > 1:04:03What are you doing?
1:04:03 > 1:04:10Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:10 > 1:04:13I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:13 > 1:04:15but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:15 > 1:04:18Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:18 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:19 > 1:04:23Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:23 > 1:04:29and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:29 > 1:04:32I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:32 > 1:04:36is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:36 > 1:04:38to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:38 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.
1:04:39 > 1:04:42As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:42 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:51 > 1:04:55Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:55 > 1:04:57That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:57 > 1:05:00at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:05:00 > 1:05:03But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:03 > 1:05:05the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:05 > 1:05:07at some recent polling.
1:05:07 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:09 > 1:05:13when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:13 > 1:05:16when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:16 > 1:05:17other areas.
1:05:17 > 1:05:21The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:21 > 1:05:23the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:23 > 1:05:28although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:28 > 1:05:32And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:32 > 1:05:37showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:37 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:39 > 1:05:41period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:41 > 1:05:43still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:43 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.
1:05:44 > 1:05:47And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:47 > 1:05:49while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:49 > 1:05:51big Labour lead yet.
1:05:51 > 1:05:53Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:53 > 1:05:57inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:57 > 1:06:0010 or 15 points ahead.
1:06:00 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:03 > 1:06:06and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:06 > 1:06:13wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:13 > 1:06:21Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:21 > 1:06:26economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:26 > 1:06:32Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:32 > 1:06:35of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:35 > 1:06:41imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:41 > 1:06:44security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:44 > 1:06:49circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:49 > 1:06:55for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:55 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:00 > 1:07:07underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:07 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:11 > 1:07:16government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:16 > 1:07:20resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:20 > 1:07:23people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:23 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:27 > 1:07:35to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:35 > 1:07:40Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:40 > 1:07:45think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:45 > 1:07:48Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:48 > 1:07:54have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:54 > 1:08:00had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:08:00 > 1:08:07They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:07 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:11 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:16 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:21 > 1:08:27next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:27 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:30 > 1:08:35of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:35 > 1:08:39certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:39 > 1:08:45well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:45 > 1:08:50am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:50 > 1:08:57that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:57 > 1:09:04Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:04 > 1:09:08Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:08 > 1:09:14to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:14 > 1:09:18despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:18 > 1:09:25the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:25 > 1:09:31just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:31 > 1:09:35Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:35 > 1:09:42Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:42 > 1:09:48people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:48 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:52 > 1:10:00of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:10:00 > 1:10:11unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:11 > 1:10:16unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:16 > 1:10:20against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:20 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:24 > 1:10:28they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:28 > 1:10:33have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:33 > 1:10:40a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:40 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:43 > 1:10:49talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:49 > 1:10:52you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:52 > 1:10:58the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:58 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:01 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:06 > 1:11:11offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:11 > 1:11:15council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:15 > 1:11:20conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:20 > 1:11:25that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:25 > 1:11:28revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:28 > 1:11:38more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:38 > 1:11:43as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:43 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:50 > 1:11:57Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:57 > 1:12:04that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:04 > 1:12:08another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:08 > 1:12:13Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:13 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:17 > 1:12:23we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:23 > 1:12:27European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:27 > 1:12:40it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:46 > 1:12:49stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:49 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:51 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:53 > 1:12:56not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:56 > 1:12:59astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:59 > 1:13:03going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:03 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:07 > 1:13:10terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:10 > 1:13:15look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:15 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:21 > 1:13:25Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:25 > 1:13:30other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:30 > 1:13:31That's all for today.
1:13:31 > 1:13:34Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:34 > 1:13:37Until then, bye bye.