:00:39. > :00:44.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:45. > :00:49.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:50. > :00:55.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:56. > :01:00.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:01. > :01:05.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:06. > :01:12.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:13. > :01:16.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:17. > :01:19.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:20. > :01:31.England's Coming up in Yorkshire and
:01:32. > :01:34.Lincolnshire, why a senior Tory MP is fighting for her political career
:01:35. > :01:43.after being shunned by local party bosses.
:01:44. > :01:50.With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if
:01:51. > :01:53.they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no
:01:54. > :01:56.pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device
:01:57. > :02:02.throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there
:02:03. > :02:06.internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't
:02:07. > :02:10.hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last
:02:11. > :02:14.week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst
:02:15. > :02:18.tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be
:02:19. > :02:23.evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the
:02:24. > :02:28.small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his
:02:29. > :02:37.takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer.
:02:38. > :02:48.It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn
:02:49. > :02:52.Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when
:02:53. > :02:55.the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the
:02:56. > :03:00.economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:01. > :03:01.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A
:03:02. > :03:10.lot better. Britain is currently growing faster
:03:11. > :03:17.than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which
:03:18. > :03:23.is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this
:03:24. > :03:27.Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that
:03:28. > :03:31.borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down
:03:32. > :03:34.significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good
:03:35. > :03:40.numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in
:03:41. > :03:44.giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower
:03:45. > :03:52.borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British
:03:53. > :03:55.people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to
:03:56. > :04:01.government departments. The state pension age will increase in the
:04:02. > :04:06.2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like
:04:07. > :04:10.discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for
:04:11. > :04:15.infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below
:04:16. > :04:17.that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while
:04:18. > :04:25.for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a
:04:26. > :04:28.long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help
:04:29. > :04:34.those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to
:04:35. > :04:39.higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't
:04:40. > :04:44.remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,
:04:45. > :04:47.but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,
:04:48. > :04:51.a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the
:04:52. > :05:01.generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash
:05:02. > :05:05.with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his
:05:06. > :05:11.response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed
:05:12. > :05:15.Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.
:05:16. > :05:19.There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.
:05:20. > :05:27.He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on
:05:28. > :05:30.the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a
:05:31. > :05:35.mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.
:05:36. > :05:42.Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the
:05:43. > :05:44.all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher
:05:45. > :05:49.extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of
:05:50. > :05:52.course it means that things are significantly better this year and
:05:53. > :05:56.next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got
:05:57. > :06:00.to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures
:06:01. > :06:08.a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The
:06:09. > :06:11.reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the
:06:12. > :06:15.long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more
:06:16. > :06:18.growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of
:06:19. > :06:23.the growth we will expect in the years after the next general
:06:24. > :06:27.election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has
:06:28. > :06:35.definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague,
:06:36. > :06:39.Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the
:06:40. > :06:47.viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is
:06:48. > :06:52.very worrying. Was this a watershed for George
:06:53. > :06:56.Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that
:06:57. > :07:00.it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are
:07:01. > :07:04.spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George
:07:05. > :07:09.Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about
:07:10. > :07:13.growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the
:07:14. > :07:17.next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But
:07:18. > :07:21.don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it
:07:22. > :07:30.all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.
:07:31. > :07:33.I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably
:07:34. > :07:40.a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his
:07:41. > :07:46.effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as
:07:47. > :07:49.well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech
:07:50. > :07:52.impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The
:07:53. > :07:57.takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people
:07:58. > :08:01.are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front
:08:02. > :08:06.bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be
:08:07. > :08:09.easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went
:08:10. > :08:15.through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the
:08:16. > :08:23.wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.
:08:24. > :08:30.It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and
:08:31. > :08:35.he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like
:08:36. > :08:40.business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price
:08:41. > :08:45.freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you
:08:46. > :08:50.say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,
:08:51. > :08:54.it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not
:08:55. > :08:58.Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed
:08:59. > :09:01.Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to
:09:02. > :09:05.disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little
:09:06. > :09:08.bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he
:09:09. > :09:13.went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,
:09:14. > :09:16.Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his
:09:17. > :09:22.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:23. > :09:28.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:29. > :09:39.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:40. > :09:44.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:45. > :09:51.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:52. > :09:58.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:09:59. > :10:07.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:08. > :10:14.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:15. > :10:20.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:21. > :10:23.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:24. > :10:29.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:30. > :10:32.Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:33. > :10:36.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:37. > :10:39.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:40. > :10:45.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:46. > :10:47.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:48. > :10:53.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:54. > :10:57.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,
:10:58. > :11:06.unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the
:11:07. > :11:11.Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't
:11:12. > :11:16.use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,
:11:17. > :11:20.speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not
:11:21. > :11:24.sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what
:11:25. > :11:28.we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of
:11:29. > :11:34.quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling
:11:35. > :11:40.public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The
:11:41. > :11:50.rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never
:11:51. > :11:55.given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I
:11:56. > :12:00.don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed
:12:01. > :12:04.Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,
:12:05. > :12:09.it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about
:12:10. > :12:12.what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are
:12:13. > :12:16.being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have
:12:17. > :12:23.had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does
:12:24. > :12:29.Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall
:12:30. > :12:32.strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the
:12:33. > :12:37.fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?
:12:38. > :12:40.A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we
:12:41. > :12:44.were doing the Autumn Statement. If you are going to deal with the cost
:12:45. > :12:47.of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our
:12:48. > :12:52.society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure. We
:12:53. > :12:56.believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some
:12:57. > :13:04.of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business
:13:05. > :13:13.lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big
:13:14. > :13:16.structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned
:13:17. > :13:21.about the cost of living crisis. That has got to be childcare help, a
:13:22. > :13:25.10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which
:13:26. > :13:30.still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you
:13:31. > :13:36.supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the
:13:37. > :13:40.Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and
:13:41. > :13:45.it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.
:13:46. > :13:51.The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in
:13:52. > :13:55.the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have
:13:56. > :14:01.a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension
:14:02. > :14:04.benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as
:14:05. > :14:10.we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are
:14:11. > :14:13.talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about
:14:14. > :14:15.pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living
:14:16. > :14:20.longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you
:14:21. > :14:27.what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for
:14:28. > :14:30.pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to
:14:31. > :14:34.announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude
:14:35. > :14:38.pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension
:14:39. > :14:44.spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,
:14:45. > :14:47.exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious
:14:48. > :14:53.welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year
:14:54. > :14:58.period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of
:14:59. > :15:05.that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What
:15:06. > :15:11.is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple
:15:12. > :15:15.lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their
:15:16. > :15:19.short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the
:15:20. > :15:25.winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of
:15:26. > :15:28.benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state
:15:29. > :15:35.pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40
:15:36. > :15:45.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:46. > :15:48.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:49. > :15:52.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:53. > :15:55.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:56. > :16:03.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:04. > :16:07.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term
:16:08. > :16:15.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't
:16:16. > :16:21.seen the proposition the Government has put before us.
:16:22. > :16:32.You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true
:16:33. > :16:36.when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation
:16:37. > :16:41.does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax
:16:42. > :16:46.threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the
:16:47. > :16:50.freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit
:16:51. > :16:56.changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they
:16:57. > :17:04.could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The
:17:05. > :17:10.VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My
:17:11. > :17:16.understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891
:17:17. > :17:23.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:24. > :17:27.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:28. > :17:33.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:34. > :17:39.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:40. > :17:43.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:44. > :17:48.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:49. > :17:51.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:52. > :17:54.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:55. > :18:02.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:03. > :18:08.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:09. > :18:13.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:14. > :18:19.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:20. > :18:25.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:26. > :18:34.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:35. > :18:39.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't
:18:40. > :18:45.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:46. > :18:49.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:50. > :18:54.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:55. > :19:05.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:19:06. > :19:09.projections work at for those -- for both business investment and
:19:10. > :19:16.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:17. > :19:20.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:21. > :19:24.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:25. > :19:30.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:31. > :19:34.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:35. > :19:42.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:43. > :19:49.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:50. > :19:55.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:56. > :20:02.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:03. > :20:07.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:08. > :20:15.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:16. > :20:18.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:19. > :20:23.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:24. > :20:28.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:29. > :20:33.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:34. > :20:41.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:42. > :20:46.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:47. > :20:54.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:55. > :21:00.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:01. > :21:05.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:06. > :21:11.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:12. > :21:15.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:16. > :21:23.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:24. > :21:26.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:27. > :21:31.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.
:21:32. > :21:37.Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in
:21:38. > :21:47.recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.
:21:48. > :21:53.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:54. > :21:59.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:22:00. > :22:03.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:04. > :22:11.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:12. > :22:19.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:20. > :22:23.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:24. > :22:28.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:29. > :22:32.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:33. > :22:40.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:41. > :22:43.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:44. > :23:27.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:28. > :23:38.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:39. > :23:51.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:52. > :23:56.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:57. > :24:05.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:06. > :24:17.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:18. > :24:22.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:23. > :24:29.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:30. > :24:33.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:34. > :24:43.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:44. > :24:49.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:50. > :24:53.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:54. > :25:00.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:01. > :25:05.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:06. > :25:09.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:10. > :25:16.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:17. > :25:23.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:24. > :25:27.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:28. > :25:32.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:33. > :25:40.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:41. > :25:45.people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This
:25:46. > :25:51.is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education
:25:52. > :25:55.Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always
:25:56. > :25:58.up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education
:25:59. > :26:05.then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't
:26:06. > :26:08.stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,
:26:09. > :26:11.Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform
:26:12. > :26:18.education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion
:26:19. > :26:22.for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's
:26:23. > :26:25.now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,
:26:26. > :26:32.creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174
:26:33. > :26:35.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:36. > :26:38.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:39. > :26:41.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:42. > :26:45.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:46. > :26:53.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms
:26:54. > :26:57.didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace
:26:58. > :27:00.A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these
:27:01. > :27:05.reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of
:27:06. > :27:08.making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief
:27:09. > :27:13.Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins
:27:14. > :27:19.me now. Over the past 15 years, we have
:27:20. > :27:22.doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By
:27:23. > :27:28.international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year
:27:29. > :27:38.that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were
:27:39. > :27:44.coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we
:27:45. > :27:48.removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is
:27:49. > :27:52.now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which
:27:53. > :27:58.to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say
:27:59. > :28:03.this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually
:28:04. > :28:08.improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International
:28:09. > :28:14.comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,
:28:15. > :28:18.including science. For 20 years, our domestic exam results just got
:28:19. > :28:23.better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the
:28:24. > :28:29.educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question
:28:30. > :28:35.there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in
:28:36. > :28:39.examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.
:28:40. > :28:49.Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.
:28:50. > :28:52.Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It
:28:53. > :28:58.might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,
:28:59. > :29:06.I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.
:29:07. > :29:12.The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping
:29:13. > :29:17.down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,
:29:18. > :29:22.designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.
:29:23. > :29:25.This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a
:29:26. > :29:32.remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading
:29:33. > :29:37.structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers
:29:38. > :29:41.coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The
:29:42. > :29:44.big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is
:29:45. > :29:51.maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.
:29:52. > :29:57.These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a
:29:58. > :30:02.year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we
:30:03. > :30:07.upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make
:30:08. > :30:11.sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on
:30:12. > :30:15.similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going
:30:16. > :30:20.to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even
:30:21. > :30:26.worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The
:30:27. > :30:30.secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who
:30:31. > :30:35.has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you
:30:36. > :30:38.hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the
:30:39. > :30:45.classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you
:30:46. > :30:49.allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education
:30:50. > :30:53.in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.
:30:54. > :30:56.You have got to actually empower those people that make the
:30:57. > :31:02.difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot
:31:03. > :31:04.of money moving what were local authority schools to become
:31:05. > :31:08.academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the
:31:09. > :31:12.academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school
:31:13. > :31:17.is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that
:31:18. > :31:21.they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?
:31:22. > :31:26.Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are
:31:27. > :31:30.early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce
:31:31. > :31:34.the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst
:31:35. > :31:37.schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most
:31:38. > :31:44.disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?
:31:45. > :31:51.They are doing GCSE equivalents, the lass academic subjects question my
:31:52. > :31:55.cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look
:31:56. > :32:07.at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of
:32:08. > :32:10.teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally
:32:11. > :32:14.develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get
:32:15. > :32:18.them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same
:32:19. > :32:25.if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just
:32:26. > :32:29.a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian
:32:30. > :32:31.countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most
:32:32. > :32:36.important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.
:32:37. > :32:43.We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We
:32:44. > :32:47.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no
:32:48. > :32:52.good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part
:32:53. > :32:58.of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor
:32:59. > :33:02.leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being
:33:03. > :33:07.put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.
:33:08. > :33:12.Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than
:33:13. > :33:15.independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.
:33:16. > :33:20.I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association
:33:21. > :33:24.of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT
:33:25. > :33:28.has called for your resignation. Another wants to abolish or
:33:29. > :33:34.Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If
:33:35. > :33:40.we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will
:33:41. > :33:43.carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We
:33:44. > :33:47.will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools
:33:48. > :33:51.and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we
:33:52. > :33:53.think they are going wrong. Many people in the education
:33:54. > :33:57.establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government's
:33:58. > :34:04.bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.
:34:05. > :34:09.You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people
:34:10. > :34:12.that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what
:34:13. > :34:16.is necessary to raise standards. I am a big supporter of autonomy in
:34:17. > :34:26.the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free
:34:27. > :34:31.schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence
:34:32. > :34:36.that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you
:34:37. > :34:40.and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,
:34:41. > :34:44.can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be
:34:45. > :34:48.in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue
:34:49. > :34:51.of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified
:34:52. > :35:00.teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in
:35:01. > :35:03.three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good
:35:04. > :35:07.enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a
:35:08. > :35:11.headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot
:35:12. > :35:15.get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as
:35:16. > :35:18.soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:19. > :35:25.support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I
:35:26. > :35:27.could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I
:35:28. > :35:30.thought somebody straight from university, without qualified
:35:31. > :35:35.teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I
:35:36. > :35:39.would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if
:35:40. > :35:42.they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more
:35:43. > :35:48.autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools
:35:49. > :35:52.academies, don't you have to do... New entrants will be coming into the
:35:53. > :36:00.market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly
:36:01. > :36:03.when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is
:36:04. > :36:08.clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?
:36:09. > :36:10.Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is
:36:11. > :36:14.something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be
:36:15. > :36:18.in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or
:36:19. > :36:24.underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors
:36:25. > :36:28.stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a
:36:29. > :36:32.school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:33. > :36:36.should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of
:36:37. > :36:43.schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough
:36:44. > :36:49.job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.
:36:50. > :36:53.Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.
:36:54. > :36:54.Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And
:36:55. > :37:18.we Hello. You're watching the Yorkshire
:37:19. > :37:22.and Lincolnshire programme. Coming up, why a senior Tory MP is fighting
:37:23. > :37:27.for her political career after being shunned.
:37:28. > :37:30.And a Labour MP defends controversial claims that some
:37:31. > :37:35.Tories have no right to pay tribute to Nelson Mandela.
:37:36. > :37:40.Let us say hello to our guests, Gillian Smith is a Conservative MP
:37:41. > :37:52.for Skipton and Ripon and Karl Turner is the Labour MP for Hull.
:37:53. > :37:59.There is a huge clean`up operation going on after the flood damage. How
:38:00. > :38:07.are things this weekend? I want to commend the community
:38:08. > :38:10.spirit of the people and for the council and emergency services for
:38:11. > :38:19.working together. I satisfied that towns and cities
:38:20. > :38:23.were adequately prepared? We were adequately prepared but what
:38:24. > :38:29.the government shouldn't have done this cut flood defences by ?175
:38:30. > :38:33.million in 2010. They should be getting their act together in terms
:38:34. > :38:38.of a deal with insurance companies. They have now done a deal following
:38:39. > :38:42.the statement of principles finishing but there is very little
:38:43. > :38:49.detail. What we do know about that is that small to businesses won't be
:38:50. > :38:58.covered and any property built after 2009 won't be covered either. That
:38:59. > :39:03.is thousands of homes in Hull. 1200 businesses were affected in 2007.
:39:04. > :39:08.They will miss out from this cover as a result of the deal done by the
:39:09. > :39:16.government. Let me put that to Gillian Smith.
:39:17. > :39:22.Many businesses and new homes cannot get cover. If you live in a flood
:39:23. > :39:29.risk area, to coin a football managers phrase, it's squeaky bum
:39:30. > :39:37.time. I would like to pay tribute to the
:39:38. > :39:45.military and all of the emergency services who have played such an
:39:46. > :39:53.important part in dealing with the emergency. I think he is being
:39:54. > :39:58.rather unfair. The situation today is better than it was six years ago.
:39:59. > :40:08.The government has put in further money since the figures he gave and
:40:09. > :40:22.by 2015 120,000 households will be protected by flooding, but the
:40:23. > :40:28.Tigers of 300,000 more by 2017. There has been a meeting this
:40:29. > :40:34.morning in London and the government treats this issue very seriously. We
:40:35. > :40:38.have a flood alleviation plan that is fit for the future.
:40:39. > :40:46.As it fair to play politics with this? This was a natural disaster, a
:40:47. > :40:50.once`in`a`lifetime storm surge. Of course it was but the reality is
:40:51. > :40:56.that the government have a responsibility in these things. The
:40:57. > :41:00.reality is that the front bench of the Labour Party lobbied the
:41:01. > :41:16.government hires not stick at flood defences further this year.
:41:17. > :41:23.The Environment Agency is shedding 1400 staff, 10% of their workforce.
:41:24. > :41:31.Won't that leave people vulnerable? There will be cuts in the
:41:32. > :41:35.Environment Agency in processing and administration but not on the front
:41:36. > :41:45.line. I am seeing in my constituency great examples of public money being
:41:46. > :41:59.used to alleviate flood damage. Additional money is coming in from
:42:00. > :42:09.the private sector. That is what give us `` will give us the funding
:42:10. > :42:12.we need. One Yorkshire's most senior MPs is
:42:13. > :42:20.fighting for her political career. Anne McIntosh will face a vote to
:42:21. > :42:24.decide whether she will be allowed to contest her seat at the next
:42:25. > :42:36.election. This is not the first time she has faced at deselection battle.
:42:37. > :42:42.This town is where the Conservatives can usually depend on overwhelming
:42:43. > :42:51.support. That is exactly what happened in 2010 as they can MP Anne
:42:52. > :43:00.McIntosh took Thirsk and Malton. She had 11,000 more votes than her
:43:01. > :43:02.nearest rival. So why now are her local Conservative Association
:43:03. > :43:12.demanding that she be replaced at the next election?
:43:13. > :43:15.It is very unusual and divisive. Anne McIntosh has failed to
:43:16. > :43:22.recapture the support and hard`working activists to take the
:43:23. > :43:30.Association for word. What do mean by divisive?
:43:31. > :43:37.There is much this satisfaction between all people.
:43:38. > :43:42.There has been high`profile success at Westminster for Anne McIntosh.
:43:43. > :43:48.She was backed to cheer the powerful rural affairs select committee. But
:43:49. > :43:59.her unpopularity with her local executive have led to a formal
:44:00. > :44:06.reselection boats. `` As many as are of the opinion, say
:44:07. > :44:16.the often baffling press releases have been offered by both sides.
:44:17. > :44:27.Anne McIntosh said she was thrilled and delighted to be asked to stand.
:44:28. > :44:36.But the constituency executive said she had been directed to stand.
:44:37. > :44:44.There has been no suggestion of conflict over voting record. I think
:44:45. > :44:59.there is a clash of personalities between some of the executive and
:45:00. > :45:04.Anne. We have got a great member of Parliament who works hard. She is
:45:05. > :45:10.chairing a committee in London. She is well respected by the party in
:45:11. > :45:20.London so why are we at this time trying to oust her from her
:45:21. > :45:24.position? But the local groups say they are
:45:25. > :45:30.fed up of getting complaints from local constituents. This man wanted
:45:31. > :45:37.help to put up road signs. I've never met her. I am a lifelong
:45:38. > :45:43.conservative and I did vote for her. We employed local people here and I
:45:44. > :45:50.needed some help cutting through local government red tape. It didn't
:45:51. > :45:59.happen enough. She didn't help anything at all.
:46:00. > :46:15.Her first election was in 1987 but this isn't the first time she has
:46:16. > :46:18.had deselection problems. Gillian Smith, you represent the
:46:19. > :46:23.neighbouring constituency. Why do so many Conservatives not want Anne
:46:24. > :46:29.McIntosh as their MP? I'm not sure if that is or is not
:46:30. > :46:37.the case. It is not my job to interfere with another MP's
:46:38. > :46:46.executive. Your viewers should be reassured that democracy is running
:46:47. > :46:51.its course. We are all here as a result of the selection of our local
:46:52. > :46:55.parties. This is a party that is making its voice clear and is having
:46:56. > :46:59.a vote. Do you think she is a good MP and
:47:00. > :47:15.should be reselected? ICA very hard working `` what is it
:47:16. > :47:17.is Abbey hard`working MP but it is up to local people to make their
:47:18. > :47:23.decision. But you think local people have got
:47:24. > :47:27.this wrong? It is up to them to decide but ICA
:47:28. > :47:35.hard`working woman and we need more women in politics.
:47:36. > :47:39.Karl Turner, there is a message here. You are all at the mercy of
:47:40. > :47:48.your local supporters. Yes to an extent. I am pleased to be
:47:49. > :47:56.representing a party which is united. This smacks of Tory
:47:57. > :48:09.infighting. I suspect is that booed old Anne McIntosh `` who are ``
:48:10. > :48:15.. Are you in full treated by UKIP in
:48:16. > :48:25.North Yorkshire? Not at all. They have a issue they
:48:26. > :48:37.want addressing and it is up to them to decide how to address that. How
:48:38. > :48:43.do call Ken talk about `` how do Karl Turner can talk about a divided
:48:44. > :48:50.party after the reaction to Ed Balls this week, I do not know.
:48:51. > :48:57.It was a fairly upbeat Autumn Statement from George Osborne. Do
:48:58. > :49:05.you share his optimism? It is complacency. We have a
:49:06. > :49:13.financial crisis. Prices have gone up and wages have gone down. People
:49:14. > :49:15.are recognising the cost of Cameron. The government needed to come up
:49:16. > :49:21.with policies to get the economy going. We have had three and a half
:49:22. > :49:30.wasted years of a flat`lining economy. What Julian just said
:49:31. > :49:33.proves the complacency. People in my constituency are struggling to make
:49:34. > :49:41.ends meet and so will those in his constituency be.
:49:42. > :49:54.We have seen Labour's plans fuel rise for next year scrapped, another
:49:55. > :50:04.year of council tax freeze, further reductions in taxation. The list
:50:05. > :50:08.goes on but nobody is complacent. Everybody understands this is a very
:50:09. > :50:13.tough time but what we are not going to do is take part in Labour's
:50:14. > :50:20.negative approach to Britain's economy. The Yorkshire economy is on
:50:21. > :50:27.the way up. We have seen more job creation in the last few months than
:50:28. > :50:31.in any area of our country. We have seen a very vibrant enterprise
:50:32. > :50:37.sector and I think that we can be confident. That confidence will give
:50:38. > :50:40.people the growth and job opportunities and pay rises for the
:50:41. > :50:43.future. Are you talking down the, Karl
:50:44. > :50:49.Turner? Not at all but some people say this
:50:50. > :50:54.is a recovery. We welcome any recovery in the economy but what we
:50:55. > :51:08.do not want is a many boom and bust. We need more homes to be built and
:51:09. > :51:13.put money into the economy so we have a long`term stable recovery.
:51:14. > :51:17.The government seem to miss the point.
:51:18. > :51:23.Let me read this to you, Gillian Smith. Report by the National Audit
:51:24. > :51:26.Office has cast a dim light on the way some of the mechanisms to boost
:51:27. > :51:53.growth are performing. Do you think these measures are
:51:54. > :51:58.working? I think they are but the reality is
:51:59. > :52:11.that the policy of pushing more money and investment decisions from
:52:12. > :52:18.here in London to the regions sees local areas making the most of it.
:52:19. > :52:28.There are billions of pounds coming to Leeds for education and skills. I
:52:29. > :52:36.think we are seeing money coming but we also needs to work as a region to
:52:37. > :52:42.make sure that we are competing with other areas to get the funding.
:52:43. > :52:47.There is light at the end of the tunnel. The Chancellor said the
:52:48. > :52:51.deficit will be eliminated by 2018. Would we have had that with it all
:52:52. > :52:57.is? Come on, this government is
:52:58. > :53:03.borrowing 198 million more than they ever plans to borrow. They have
:53:04. > :53:10.failed every economic tests they set themselves. The economy has flat
:53:11. > :53:16.line for three years. People are now realising the cost of Cameron. In
:53:17. > :53:21.relation to Local Enterprise Partnerships, we are lucky in my
:53:22. > :53:30.area but the truth is the local share his less power and less
:53:31. > :53:33.money. The government announced they are
:53:34. > :53:38.putting more money into the offshore wind industry which will be a huge
:53:39. > :53:44.bonanza in your industry. Absolutely and I met Ed Davey to get
:53:45. > :53:50.that commitment from them. I suspect he would say he already had made
:53:51. > :53:52.that decision and maybe he had. We welcome the investment because we
:53:53. > :53:58.need the growth in the economy but the government are doing lots to arm
:53:59. > :54:07.the economy but what they shouldn't need doing is giving rich people a
:54:08. > :54:10.tax break. They are out of touch because they are bursting at the
:54:11. > :54:18.seams with multimillionaires who can't understand what it is like for
:54:19. > :54:31.real people and places like Hull. On call's point there `` on Karl
:54:32. > :54:41.Turner's point he knows that we are investing more in going after things
:54:42. > :54:48.like tax avoiding companies. What happened for 13 years? Nothing
:54:49. > :54:53.happened. Don't be lectured by Karl Turner on the rich not paying
:54:54. > :54:56.enough. They are paying more under this government than they were 13
:54:57. > :55:05.years under the Labour Party. Your party has people like Lord
:55:06. > :55:14.Mandelson who love hanging around on rich people's yachts.
:55:15. > :55:26.Peter Mandelson is a great man. Working people on average are worse
:55:27. > :55:30.off under this government. That's why the Labour Party is saying that
:55:31. > :55:36.we need action to help those people. An example of that would be to help
:55:37. > :55:40.people in terms of wraparound care for education so that people can
:55:41. > :55:48.actually go to work and work pays. That is the deal.
:55:49. > :55:53.We shall move on. Yorkshire and Lincolnshire joined in the tributes
:55:54. > :56:02.to Nelson Mandela. He was made an Honorary Freeman of the city of
:56:03. > :56:09.Leeds in 2001. Sheffield MP and anti`apartheid campaigner Paul
:56:10. > :56:12.Blomfield questions tributes paid by some conservatives.
:56:13. > :56:18.I welcome the tributes that David Cameron has paid today but some of
:56:19. > :56:24.those who were quick to condemn Mandela when he was in prison and
:56:25. > :56:30.fighting for freedom should reflect on their comments now as the world
:56:31. > :56:37.recognises him as the great leader that he was. Margaret Thatcher was
:56:38. > :56:42.among those accusing him of being a terrorist and one of the first to
:56:43. > :56:50.condemn him when he was Prime Minister. Had they taken a stronger
:56:51. > :56:55.stance in the way that the world is recognising the struggle that he was
:56:56. > :57:00.leading, we would have seen an end to apartheid sooner.
:57:01. > :57:04.What you make of that criticism of some Tories?
:57:05. > :57:08.I'm not going to get involved in this bonding to that but what I am
:57:09. > :57:13.going to talk about is the inspiration that Nelson Mandela was
:57:14. > :57:20.to me and millions of people around the world. When we saw him coming
:57:21. > :57:25.out of prison and when we saw him as a leader of South Africa,
:57:26. > :57:32.transforming a nation and being an inspiration to the world. Seeing
:57:33. > :57:40.President Obama last year going back to the cell where Nelson Mandela was
:57:41. > :57:44.incarcerated was I felt one of the most moving images in recent
:57:45. > :57:56.political history. The other thing to remember is the work that Mandela
:57:57. > :58:03.did for AIDS. He became a passionate campaigner on AIDS issues. We all
:58:04. > :58:08.need debt to him on that issue as well as all the other issues he was
:58:09. > :58:11.involved with. Is it right for someone in your
:58:12. > :58:18.party to highlight the politics of the past following Nelson Mandela's
:58:19. > :58:25.death? I want to echo the comments just
:58:26. > :58:31.made. That tribute was accurate. I don't think anyone should criticise
:58:32. > :58:37.Paul Blomfield for stating the facts. Most of the Tory party were
:58:38. > :58:42.attacking Mandela at the time and it is true to say that the former Prime
:58:43. > :58:48.Minister Lady Thatcher did come out and criticise him very heavily and
:58:49. > :58:52.publicly. He was right to make those points.
:58:53. > :58:55.When you were a young conservative, Gillian Smith, was at the
:58:56. > :59:01.overwhelming view that and a lot was a terrorist?
:59:02. > :59:08.I think looking back on history on lots of different issues, you might
:59:09. > :59:13.make different decisions. We could all go back and look at decisions we
:59:14. > :59:17.have taken. Margaret Thatcher decided not to get involved in
:59:18. > :59:23.sanctions. That was because of a belief that ensuring trade kept
:59:24. > :59:33.going with South Africa and that the population of South Africa didn't
:59:34. > :59:39.lose out was her priority. But this man gave inspiration to billions of
:59:40. > :59:44.black people and white people and when you talk of legends, there is
:59:45. > :59:47.no bigger legends to people in Yorkshire and across this country
:59:48. > :59:52.and across the world than Nelson Mandela.
:59:53. > :59:55.I wonder what people will say about U2 when you're gone. I'm sure the
:59:56. > :59:58.obituary writers are sharpening their pencils. Thank you both very
:59:59. > :00:01.much. This is our final gram of the year
:00:02. > :00:08.so I will Tomorrow, the House of Commons will
:00:09. > :00:22.pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest
:00:23. > :00:48.son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that
:00:49. > :00:49.involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against
:00:50. > :01:01.apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to
:01:02. > :01:10.South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put
:01:11. > :01:18.on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He
:01:19. > :01:23.also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the
:01:24. > :01:28.world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this
:01:29. > :01:39.reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who
:01:40. > :01:47.raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.
:01:48. > :01:58.Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.
:01:59. > :02:07.We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not
:02:08. > :02:12.one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an
:02:13. > :02:17.election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I
:02:18. > :02:20.would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been
:02:21. > :02:26.the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He
:02:27. > :02:29.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot
:02:30. > :02:35.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without
:02:36. > :02:41.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his
:02:42. > :02:45.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that
:02:46. > :02:48.if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to
:02:49. > :02:54.Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that
:02:55. > :03:02.Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the
:03:03. > :03:08.key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about
:03:09. > :03:11.it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That
:03:12. > :03:17.anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics
:03:18. > :03:22.in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the
:03:23. > :03:26.time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in
:03:27. > :03:29.South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the
:03:30. > :03:35.anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political
:03:36. > :03:39.campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's
:03:40. > :03:43.assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people
:03:44. > :03:47.that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him
:03:48. > :03:52.come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you
:03:53. > :03:56.have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,
:03:57. > :04:05.picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was
:04:06. > :04:12.more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice
:04:13. > :04:15.Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's
:04:16. > :04:19.performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a
:04:20. > :04:23.brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best
:04:24. > :04:27.performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points
:04:28. > :04:33.he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I
:04:34. > :04:38.noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that
:04:39. > :04:41.under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for
:04:42. > :04:47.him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience
:04:48. > :04:50.first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not
:04:51. > :05:02.anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This
:05:03. > :05:06.is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can
:05:07. > :05:12.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to
:05:13. > :05:17.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he
:05:18. > :05:22.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless
:05:23. > :05:27.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid
:05:28. > :05:31.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed
:05:32. > :05:36.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the
:05:37. > :05:40.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed
:05:41. > :05:44.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview
:05:45. > :05:48.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument
:05:49. > :05:53.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just
:05:54. > :05:59.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to
:06:00. > :06:03.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of
:06:04. > :06:08.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than
:06:09. > :06:12.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective
:06:13. > :06:17.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown
:06:18. > :06:21.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys
:06:22. > :06:25.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to
:06:26. > :06:29.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,
:06:30. > :06:31.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the
:06:32. > :06:36.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about
:06:37. > :06:41.shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too
:06:42. > :06:50.far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would
:06:51. > :06:56.want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I
:06:57. > :07:02.can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair
:07:03. > :07:07.Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put
:07:08. > :07:11.him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare
:07:12. > :07:15.secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to
:07:16. > :07:20.the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,
:07:21. > :07:26.or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which
:07:27. > :07:29.could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could
:07:30. > :07:32.feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,
:07:33. > :07:38.looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour
:07:39. > :07:41.strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view
:07:42. > :07:44.mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead
:07:45. > :07:51.through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre
:07:52. > :07:55.of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for
:07:56. > :08:00.him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison
:08:01. > :08:03.with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is
:08:04. > :08:07.between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between
:08:08. > :08:11.Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging
:08:12. > :08:16.reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of
:08:17. > :08:19.recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that
:08:20. > :08:26.punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?
:08:27. > :08:29.Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.
:08:30. > :08:33.We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in
:08:34. > :08:39.living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David
:08:40. > :08:42.Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal
:08:43. > :08:46.lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the
:08:47. > :08:50.composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we
:08:51. > :08:54.ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it
:08:55. > :08:57.smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.
:08:58. > :09:08.Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I
:09:09. > :09:15.say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of
:09:16. > :09:20.the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will
:09:21. > :09:26.there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,
:09:27. > :09:34.but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a
:09:35. > :09:40.third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What
:09:41. > :09:47.will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to
:09:48. > :09:52.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went
:09:53. > :09:56.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and
:09:57. > :10:03.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it
:10:04. > :10:06.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular
:10:07. > :10:14.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is
:10:15. > :10:19.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London
:10:20. > :10:24.is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed
:10:25. > :10:36.Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,
:10:37. > :10:39.I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean
:10:40. > :10:49.have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.
:10:50. > :10:53.Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence
:10:54. > :10:58.referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless
:10:59. > :11:07.they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to
:11:08. > :11:12.call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come
:11:13. > :11:20.to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population
:11:21. > :11:24.of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,
:11:25. > :11:30.I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,
:11:31. > :11:34.but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into
:11:35. > :11:40.figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think
:11:41. > :11:46.quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a
:11:47. > :11:53.huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to
:11:54. > :11:57.speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three
:11:58. > :12:05.of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend
:12:06. > :12:10.that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If
:12:11. > :12:19.you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you
:12:20. > :12:27.have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true
:12:28. > :12:31.talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you
:12:32. > :12:38.will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election
:12:39. > :12:43.next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this
:12:44. > :12:51.time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of
:12:52. > :12:57.the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage
:12:58. > :13:00.to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like
:13:01. > :13:04.there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it
:13:05. > :13:08.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think
:13:09. > :13:11.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick
:13:12. > :13:18.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all
:13:19. > :13:21.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the
:13:22. > :13:25.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force
:13:26. > :13:29.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.
:13:30. > :13:36.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives
:13:37. > :13:42.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the
:13:43. > :13:49.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:50. > :13:51.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.