16/02/2014

:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

:00:45. > :00:47.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

:00:48. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

:00:52. > :00:57.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

:00:58. > :01:00.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

:01:01. > :01:10.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

:01:11. > :01:18.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election and

:01:19. > :01:24.An Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, great art sell`off. My

:01:25. > :01:25.some of our town halls are considering blogging the family

:01:26. > :01:41.silver in With me, the best and brightest

:01:42. > :01:44.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and

:01:45. > :01:48.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development

:01:49. > :01:50.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the

:01:51. > :01:56.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel

:01:57. > :01:59.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that

:02:00. > :02:03.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union

:02:04. > :02:07.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28

:02:08. > :02:11.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if

:02:12. > :02:15.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out

:02:16. > :02:22.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very

:02:23. > :02:25.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by

:02:26. > :02:32.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the

:02:33. > :02:37.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your

:02:38. > :02:40.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely

:02:41. > :02:45.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have

:02:46. > :02:54.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that

:02:55. > :02:58.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is

:02:59. > :03:01.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be

:03:02. > :03:08.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't

:03:09. > :03:11.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive

:03:12. > :03:15.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex

:03:16. > :03:19.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to

:03:20. > :03:23.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with

:03:24. > :03:30.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last

:03:31. > :03:41.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically

:03:42. > :03:47.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that

:03:48. > :03:54.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get

:03:55. > :03:58.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more

:03:59. > :04:03.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is

:04:04. > :04:07.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active

:04:08. > :04:11.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other

:04:12. > :04:15.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no

:04:16. > :04:21.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by

:04:22. > :04:24.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it

:04:25. > :04:31.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have

:04:32. > :04:33.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite

:04:34. > :04:39.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know

:04:40. > :04:45.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried

:04:46. > :04:51.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care

:04:52. > :04:57.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.

:04:58. > :05:01.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the

:05:02. > :05:06.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the

:05:07. > :05:09.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would

:05:10. > :05:12.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that

:05:13. > :05:17.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls

:05:18. > :05:23.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for

:05:24. > :05:28.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of

:05:29. > :05:30.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in

:05:31. > :05:34.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a

:05:35. > :05:40.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both

:05:41. > :05:46.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already

:05:47. > :05:50.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is

:05:51. > :05:54.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,

:05:55. > :05:59.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the

:06:00. > :06:02.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was

:06:03. > :06:07.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A

:06:08. > :06:10.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last

:06:11. > :06:14.minute. The leader of the biggest

:06:15. > :06:19.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members

:06:20. > :06:23.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the

:06:24. > :06:28.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership

:06:29. > :06:31.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when

:06:32. > :06:36.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has

:06:37. > :06:40.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to

:06:41. > :06:43.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the

:06:44. > :06:48.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100

:06:49. > :06:53.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has

:06:54. > :06:57.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.

:06:58. > :07:06.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.

:07:07. > :07:13.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the

:07:14. > :07:18.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of

:07:19. > :07:21.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it

:07:22. > :07:25.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices

:07:26. > :07:28.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone

:07:29. > :07:31.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep

:07:32. > :07:37.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not

:07:38. > :07:41.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking

:07:42. > :07:44.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a

:07:45. > :07:48.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less

:07:49. > :07:54.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.

:07:55. > :08:00.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV

:08:01. > :08:04.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time

:08:05. > :08:07.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.

:08:08. > :08:11.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit

:08:12. > :08:15.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,

:08:16. > :08:21.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they

:08:22. > :08:26.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out

:08:27. > :08:30.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket

:08:31. > :08:35.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind

:08:36. > :08:38.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the

:08:39. > :08:44.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They

:08:45. > :08:50.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?

:08:51. > :08:52.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got

:08:53. > :08:55.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a

:08:56. > :08:58.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in

:08:59. > :09:02.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million

:09:03. > :09:07.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per

:09:08. > :09:11.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We

:09:12. > :09:14.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more

:09:15. > :09:19.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming

:09:20. > :09:22.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people

:09:23. > :09:29.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of

:09:30. > :09:33.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I

:09:34. > :09:41.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I

:09:42. > :09:45.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because

:09:46. > :09:50.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what

:09:51. > :09:54.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily

:09:55. > :09:57.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to

:09:58. > :10:02.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...

:10:03. > :10:05.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and

:10:06. > :10:10.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were

:10:11. > :10:13.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they

:10:14. > :10:17.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on

:10:18. > :10:21.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They

:10:22. > :10:27.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be

:10:28. > :10:32.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never

:10:33. > :10:35.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what

:10:36. > :10:39.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I

:10:40. > :10:43.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next

:10:44. > :10:51.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot

:10:52. > :10:55.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do

:10:56. > :10:58.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be

:10:59. > :11:03.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not

:11:04. > :11:06.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good

:11:07. > :11:11.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all

:11:12. > :11:15.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they

:11:16. > :11:19.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to

:11:20. > :11:22.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for

:11:23. > :11:25.your members and why union membership has been rising, people

:11:26. > :11:30.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost

:11:31. > :11:36.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone

:11:37. > :11:39.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are

:11:40. > :11:42.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on

:11:43. > :11:47.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at

:11:48. > :11:53.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The

:11:54. > :11:57.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary

:11:58. > :12:04.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a

:12:05. > :12:10.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had

:12:11. > :12:17.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members

:12:18. > :12:23.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by

:12:24. > :12:26.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the

:12:27. > :12:31.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the

:12:32. > :12:36.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up

:12:37. > :12:41.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are

:12:42. > :12:43.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all

:12:44. > :12:48.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars

:12:49. > :12:52.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members

:12:53. > :12:56.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if

:12:57. > :13:00.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who

:13:01. > :13:06.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of

:13:07. > :13:10.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling

:13:11. > :13:18.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It

:13:19. > :13:22.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us

:13:23. > :13:26.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's

:13:27. > :13:33.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having

:13:34. > :13:37.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is

:13:38. > :13:40.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said

:13:41. > :13:45.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in

:13:46. > :13:50.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth

:13:51. > :13:54.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting

:13:55. > :13:58.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy

:13:59. > :14:03.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?

:14:04. > :14:08.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx

:14:09. > :14:12.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and

:14:13. > :14:16.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of

:14:17. > :14:24.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out

:14:25. > :14:29.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they

:14:30. > :14:33.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so

:14:34. > :14:37.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and

:14:38. > :14:39.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the

:14:40. > :14:44.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute

:14:45. > :14:49.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing

:14:50. > :14:54.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless

:14:55. > :15:03.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this

:15:04. > :15:13.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming

:15:14. > :15:19.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it

:15:20. > :15:24.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it

:15:25. > :15:28.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be

:15:29. > :15:35.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who

:15:36. > :15:40.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality

:15:41. > :15:46.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a

:15:47. > :15:54.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless

:15:55. > :16:00.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small

:16:01. > :16:06.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me

:16:07. > :16:22.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over

:16:23. > :16:26.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created

:16:27. > :16:32.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many

:16:33. > :16:37.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the

:16:38. > :16:42.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and

:16:43. > :16:47.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better

:16:48. > :16:52.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the

:16:53. > :16:59.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single

:17:00. > :17:07.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes

:17:08. > :17:12.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long

:17:13. > :17:17.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.

:17:18. > :17:23.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is

:17:24. > :17:30.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people

:17:31. > :17:34.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use

:17:35. > :17:42.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the

:17:43. > :17:51.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I

:17:52. > :17:57.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.

:17:58. > :18:04.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is

:18:05. > :18:08.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being

:18:09. > :18:15.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that

:18:16. > :18:20.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out

:18:21. > :18:24.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the

:18:25. > :18:29.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London

:18:30. > :18:32.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices

:18:33. > :18:36.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially

:18:37. > :18:43.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the

:18:44. > :18:52.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed

:18:53. > :19:07.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal

:19:08. > :19:12.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and

:19:13. > :19:18.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want

:19:19. > :19:26.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of

:19:27. > :19:34.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%

:19:35. > :19:39.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of

:19:40. > :19:45.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a

:19:46. > :19:50.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be

:19:51. > :19:56.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to

:19:57. > :20:01.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we

:20:02. > :20:08.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were

:20:09. > :20:14.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where

:20:15. > :20:19.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be

:20:20. > :20:24.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the

:20:25. > :20:31.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT

:20:32. > :20:36.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got

:20:37. > :20:45.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the

:20:46. > :20:54.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we

:20:55. > :20:58.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you

:20:59. > :21:08.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You

:21:09. > :21:16.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you

:21:17. > :21:22.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and

:21:23. > :21:28.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are

:21:29. > :21:34.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the

:21:35. > :21:40.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as

:21:41. > :21:47.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the

:21:48. > :21:52.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not

:21:53. > :21:58.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to

:21:59. > :22:05.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to

:22:06. > :22:10.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have

:22:11. > :22:21.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if

:22:22. > :22:28.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later

:22:29. > :22:34.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel

:22:35. > :22:40.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish

:22:41. > :22:46.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now

:22:47. > :22:53.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I

:22:54. > :23:00.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He

:23:01. > :23:06.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,

:23:07. > :23:12.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to

:23:13. > :23:16.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are

:23:17. > :23:20.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been

:23:21. > :23:27.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work

:23:28. > :23:31.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership

:23:32. > :23:37.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and

:23:38. > :23:49.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are

:23:50. > :23:52.talking about the president of the European commission and we have

:23:53. > :23:57.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,

:23:58. > :24:06.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that

:24:07. > :24:14.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they

:24:15. > :24:19.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it

:24:20. > :24:23.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state

:24:24. > :24:29.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish

:24:30. > :24:35.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if

:24:36. > :24:38.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an

:24:39. > :24:43.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.

:24:44. > :24:48.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no

:24:49. > :24:52.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union

:24:53. > :24:57.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the

:24:58. > :25:02.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union

:25:03. > :25:06.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation

:25:07. > :25:17.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that

:25:18. > :25:22.David Cameron wants to have in 2017. It has not been a great week for

:25:23. > :25:28.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has

:25:29. > :25:32.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel

:25:33. > :25:39.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it

:25:40. > :25:45.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the

:25:46. > :25:49.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within

:25:50. > :25:58.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is

:25:59. > :26:01.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect

:26:02. > :26:09.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence

:26:10. > :26:15.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves

:26:16. > :26:21.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We

:26:22. > :26:29.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be

:26:30. > :26:36.to establish the currency union. You would have to adopt the euro. That's

:26:37. > :26:40.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for

:26:41. > :26:43.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent

:26:44. > :26:49.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or

:26:50. > :26:53.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our

:26:54. > :27:00.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests

:27:01. > :27:05.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.

:27:06. > :27:09.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of

:27:10. > :27:12.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of

:27:13. > :27:15.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on

:27:16. > :27:18.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come

:27:19. > :27:21.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the

:27:22. > :27:32.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all

:27:33. > :27:42.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a

:27:43. > :27:49.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?

:27:50. > :27:52.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard

:27:53. > :27:55.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP

:27:56. > :28:05.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.

:28:06. > :28:11.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have

:28:12. > :28:14.come second and increased their share of the vote quite

:28:15. > :28:15.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances

:28:16. > :28:18.in some of the other by-elections isn't as good as their performances

:28:19. > :28:27.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has

:28:28. > :28:35.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what

:28:36. > :28:42.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are

:28:43. > :28:47.you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was

:28:48. > :28:53.going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present

:28:54. > :28:56.our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the

:28:57. > :28:59.right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of

:29:00. > :29:03.millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a

:29:04. > :29:08.winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on

:29:09. > :29:11.dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford

:29:12. > :29:17.from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He's

:29:18. > :29:20.analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could

:29:21. > :29:32.confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of

:29:33. > :29:40.the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from

:29:41. > :29:44.the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that

:29:45. > :29:49.stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the

:29:50. > :29:54.Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more

:29:55. > :30:00.likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more

:30:01. > :30:03.anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that

:30:04. > :30:06.the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow

:30:07. > :30:19.majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP

:30:20. > :30:23.strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if

:30:24. > :30:26.they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there

:30:27. > :30:29.is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next

:30:30. > :30:36.government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy

:30:37. > :30:42.what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to

:30:43. > :30:47.realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no

:30:48. > :30:52.referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would

:30:53. > :31:02.not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up

:31:03. > :31:05.time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of

:31:06. > :31:10.November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint

:31:11. > :31:14.with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon,

:31:15. > :31:18.chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to

:31:19. > :31:22.the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the

:31:23. > :31:28.UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon.

:31:29. > :31:32.With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of

:31:33. > :31:36.medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the

:31:37. > :31:40.upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it

:31:41. > :31:47.was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a

:31:48. > :31:53.game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party,

:31:54. > :31:58.like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the

:31:59. > :32:06.opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be

:32:07. > :32:11.winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily

:32:12. > :32:15.well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the

:32:16. > :32:18.shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think

:32:19. > :32:22.about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union

:32:23. > :32:28.activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed

:32:29. > :32:33.you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories

:32:34. > :32:38.in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote

:32:39. > :32:43.for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The

:32:44. > :32:47.same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a

:32:48. > :32:51.by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should

:32:52. > :32:56.learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 2014.

:32:57. > :33:02.That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this

:33:03. > :33:07.change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.

:33:08. > :33:10.You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote

:33:11. > :33:16.against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people

:33:17. > :33:19.vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.

:33:20. > :33:24.They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick's

:33:25. > :33:28.party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change.

:33:29. > :33:34.They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that

:33:35. > :33:38.video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is

:33:39. > :33:45.to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote

:33:46. > :33:50.Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has

:33:51. > :33:56.not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will

:33:57. > :34:00.get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

:34:01. > :34:03.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

:34:04. > :34:07.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election. And

:34:08. > :34:12.you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I

:34:13. > :34:15.believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge

:34:16. > :34:19.he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I

:34:20. > :34:23.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

:34:24. > :34:26.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

:34:27. > :34:30.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

:34:31. > :34:34.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

:34:35. > :34:38.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

:34:39. > :34:44.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

:34:45. > :34:49.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

:34:50. > :34:53.The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our

:34:54. > :34:57.relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a

:34:58. > :35:00.Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, stop pretending that you can

:35:01. > :35:07.deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,

:35:08. > :35:13.we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn't

:35:14. > :35:16.want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,

:35:17. > :35:22.you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what

:35:23. > :35:25.do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote

:35:26. > :35:31.UKIP. A referendum is one thing. David Cameron, and I asked him

:35:32. > :35:37.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

:35:38. > :35:41.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

:35:42. > :35:46.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

:35:47. > :35:50.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

:35:51. > :35:54.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

:35:55. > :35:59.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

:36:00. > :36:03.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

:36:04. > :36:08.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

:36:09. > :36:12.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

:36:13. > :36:16.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

:36:17. > :36:24.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

:36:25. > :36:31.UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is

:36:32. > :36:33.as good as his word and says there will be no substantial

:36:34. > :36:38.renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is

:36:39. > :36:44.up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime

:36:45. > :36:49.Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything

:36:50. > :36:57.of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote

:36:58. > :37:03.to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public

:37:04. > :37:05.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

:37:06. > :37:10.renegotiation, we will leave. You unless we get what we want from a

:37:11. > :37:15.would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in

:37:16. > :37:20.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.

:37:21. > :37:25.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers

:37:26. > :37:28.lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of

:37:29. > :37:33.Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up

:37:34. > :37:35.in just over 20 minutes, I will be talking about, what else, the

:37:36. > :37:47.weather, with Hello, you're watching the Sunday

:37:48. > :37:54.Politics for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. Coming up today: The

:37:55. > :37:57.great art sell`off. Why some of our town halls are considering flogging

:37:58. > :38:03.the family silver in order to balance the books.

:38:04. > :38:06.Plus we'll find out why a senior Labour figure says the party needs

:38:07. > :38:11.to do more to deal with the threat from UKIP in South Yorkshire.

:38:12. > :38:20.And we'll look at claims of a North`South divide when it comes to

:38:21. > :38:22.help being offered to flood victims. Our guests today are MP for Barnsley

:38:23. > :38:36.Central Dan Jarvis, MP First, we're asking whether it's

:38:37. > :38:39.time town halls should sell off their family silver. Many of our

:38:40. > :38:43.local councils hold millions of pounds' worth of fine art work from

:38:44. > :38:47.some of the world's most famous artists. But with authorities facing

:38:48. > :38:53.a financial squeeze, there's pressure from some to cash`in on

:38:54. > :39:08.council art collections. Here's Louise Martin.

:39:09. > :39:13.Of, is a creative inspiration on a billion`dollar economy. In these

:39:14. > :39:19.times of posterity should the Council considers selling the family

:39:20. > :39:24.silver worth more than ?250 million? Art is a big`money business but how

:39:25. > :39:31.much is the artwork worth? Leeds City Council collection has been

:39:32. > :39:33.valued at ?150 million but they don't break the ice down directly to

:39:34. > :39:55.fine art. The suggestion last year from

:39:56. > :40:00.Bradford opposition councillors that the polity should sell off some of

:40:01. > :40:07.the David Hockney pieces came with serious criticisms, including from

:40:08. > :40:12.the artist himself. But would it make financial sense?

:40:13. > :40:18.They might not get the price today that they will get in five years

:40:19. > :40:21.time but they might get more. Art is therefore asked to enjoy and our

:40:22. > :40:27.kids to enjoy and grandkids to enjoy. Once you put money into art

:40:28. > :40:31.at all changes. Among the works in West Yorkshire

:40:32. > :40:45.collections are Francis bacon pieces. The leader of Kirklees

:40:46. > :40:49.Council says art could follow buildings and land in being sold

:40:50. > :40:52.off. Each year we send off several

:40:53. > :41:00.million pounds worth of buildings and land to funds things. We will

:41:01. > :41:08.take advice this summer and that will help us make decisions on what

:41:09. > :41:14.we could hold onto and the decisions of what to sell will be taken in a

:41:15. > :41:18.transparent manner with contributions from everyone.

:41:19. > :41:29.David Green, leader of Bradford Council, hit back at colleagues that

:41:30. > :41:36.suggest pieces are sold off. The artwork has been left in trust

:41:37. > :41:42.to the people of Bradford and as the guardians of that artwork for future

:41:43. > :41:48.generations, we have a duty to protect it and make sure it is

:41:49. > :41:54.widely available. Do we sell`off the family silver to

:41:55. > :42:00.cover costs? For Kirklees, it is looking increasingly likely.

:42:01. > :42:05.Dan Jarvis, is this a simple way for councils to solve the black holes in

:42:06. > :42:11.the financial budgets? It is not a simple solution. We live

:42:12. > :42:18.in the cult financial Times and it is tough to be an local government.

:42:19. > :42:26.In my part of the world, we have invested money in a museum and I

:42:27. > :42:32.think that cultural offer is very important. I think we need to be

:42:33. > :42:36.cautious about getting rid of a cultural legacy and an inheritance

:42:37. > :42:41.for the next generation. It contributes to towns and cities

:42:42. > :42:46.being places we want to 11 and places we want people to visit.

:42:47. > :42:57.Your colleagues say they want to sell off the art collections.

:42:58. > :43:02.Not every single one. The leader of the group has talked about other

:43:03. > :43:12.arrangements. As the Council the best to look after these? The story

:43:13. > :43:19.and Bradford is that the insurance was ?20 million. Desperate times

:43:20. > :43:24.call for desperate measures and you cannot have any area of the

:43:25. > :43:31.Council's budgets or assets which are areas we cannot go. We are

:43:32. > :43:38.cutting youth services so you must look at every single part of the

:43:39. > :43:55.Council's acid this. `` asset base.

:43:56. > :44:01.Selling one or two good bring an important contribution.

:44:02. > :44:07.Should they sell off fine art? I think it would be sad to sell off

:44:08. > :44:12.our national heritage. What I do think is that you could look to make

:44:13. > :44:18.cuts in different ways cause you have still got the chief Executive

:44:19. > :44:26.is an lots of money and you could look there first. Instead of getting

:44:27. > :44:32.rid of our heritage, let's get rid of cuts were we really needed.

:44:33. > :44:38.Somebody on ?250,000 a year doesn't need that money and we could look at

:44:39. > :44:46.cutting their salaries. But make sure that the cuts are in the right

:44:47. > :44:58.place, get rid of the fat cat salaries, not lollipop lady 's the

:44:59. > :45:03.problem is that the funding settlements from national government

:45:04. > :45:06.are unfair. David Cameron's on local authority

:45:07. > :45:12.has a better funding solution than many in Yorkshire. These are

:45:13. > :45:18.difficult times. I agree they are drastic times but I would say that's

:45:19. > :45:24.we need to look carefully at what the spending solutions are for the

:45:25. > :45:30.long`term I think this is a short`term measure.

:45:31. > :45:34.It is a short`term measure to what is a short`term crisis. The

:45:35. > :45:41.recession has gone on for longer than people imagine is but it will

:45:42. > :45:45.end and if there are things that we can do then we should look at it.

:45:46. > :45:49.A senior Labour figure says his party needs to do much more to deal

:45:50. > :45:53.with the threat from UKIP in many working class Yorkshire heartlands.

:45:54. > :45:56.In a week when UKIP recorded another second place finish in a northern

:45:57. > :45:58.by`election, former minister John Healey claims Labour should

:45:59. > :46:10."wake`up" to the threat from Nigel Farage's party. Liz Roberts has the

:46:11. > :46:15.story. With a majority of almost 14,000,

:46:16. > :46:19.you think this Labour MP would be sitting comfortably but these

:46:20. > :46:22.streets are now a battle ground with the enemy closing in.

:46:23. > :46:33.There has been some comfort for people nationally in Labour that

:46:34. > :46:39.UKIP are taking four or five Conservative votes for everyone

:46:40. > :46:42.Labour vote. I don't think that's true in working`class areas like

:46:43. > :46:47.this. The Labour minister has apologised.

:46:48. > :46:51.One thing we didn't get right was immigration.

:46:52. > :47:00.But has it come too late? It needs to wake up and recognise

:47:01. > :47:05.the problems and expose the truth about you cat.

:47:06. > :47:10.The UKIP army has been gaining ground and devotes, including from

:47:11. > :47:19.Labour voters. It all is was a Labour voter but in

:47:20. > :47:24.2007 I changed to UKIP. I believe that the Labour Party, no new

:47:25. > :47:30.Labour, has abandoned working people.

:47:31. > :47:38.It is no surprise that Labour should be worried. UKIP has come a serious

:47:39. > :47:44.second in two by`elections in the area and has ambitions to conquer

:47:45. > :47:48.new territory. We are beginning to become the party

:47:49. > :47:55.of opposition in the North of England.

:47:56. > :48:00.We are getting the message across on the doorstep. They have had enough

:48:01. > :48:04.of Labour and see us as an alternative party for the working

:48:05. > :48:16.man and they will be voting for us in May. We have support from

:48:17. > :48:32.lifelong Labour voters. That is the claim but UKIP are

:48:33. > :48:38.starting from lobe are. `` low bar. It has always been in my family so I

:48:39. > :48:44.will stick with Labour. I'm done with voting. Not at all.

:48:45. > :48:48.They are all the same. The battle lines have now been drawn

:48:49. > :48:55.and with European and local elections coming up, Labour will

:48:56. > :49:03.soon know if you are a serious threat come the general election.

:49:04. > :49:11.As he writes that Labour should wake up to the threat?

:49:12. > :49:17.We shouldn't be complacent about it. People are hugely cynical about

:49:18. > :49:26.politicians and UKIP have been successful in branding themselves as

:49:27. > :49:31.a receptacle for protest votes. Next year in the general election, there

:49:32. > :49:37.will be an increasing focus on the policies and the people they choose

:49:38. > :49:43.to represent them. But we need to get out and about and talk to people

:49:44. > :49:48.about the issues that affect them. We talk about the rise of the Cape,

:49:49. > :49:55.it became second end the by`election this week, but you were 9000 votes

:49:56. > :50:01.behind Labour. When will you start winning seats?

:50:02. > :50:08.The demographics they were a little bit difference compared to a lot of

:50:09. > :50:13.Labour heartlands. We found public sector workers living under a Labour

:50:14. > :50:20.council and they were quite happy and comfortable. They have held the

:50:21. > :50:25.vote well but we are still very pleased with our result because we

:50:26. > :50:39.have gone from theft to second place `` fifth. Voters are saying to us

:50:40. > :50:43.they want to be involved and they will vote for us.

:50:44. > :50:50.You don't need me to remind you that the Lib Dems lost their deposits in

:50:51. > :50:53.the by`election. I've worried about recovering in time for the general

:50:54. > :50:58.election? I don't think UKIP will be a threat

:50:59. > :51:08.to us because they are generally a right`wing party. There has always

:51:09. > :51:18.been a strong right wing vote within the working class and that will be

:51:19. > :51:30.all 22 UKIP. `` vulnerable to UKIP. I can hardly begrudge another party

:51:31. > :51:35.seeking the protest vote. I think Labour have a particular problem

:51:36. > :51:43.with the traditional right`wing vote that has been all the way back to

:51:44. > :51:49.Mosley. It has always been there and will always be vulnerable to the

:51:50. > :51:52.UKIP vote. Is there at the suggestion that your

:51:53. > :51:58.party has neglected the needs of working`class voters?

:51:59. > :52:02.Particularly on immigration. I'm clear that we made mistakes on

:52:03. > :52:09.immigration and we want to that again. It is not the single most

:52:10. > :52:16.important issue for people on the street. People are experiencing a

:52:17. > :52:20.cost of living crisis. We need to demonstrate to them that we have the

:52:21. > :52:25.policies that will steer them through these difficult times.

:52:26. > :52:32.Europe is one policy but it doesn't keep people awake at night. People

:52:33. > :52:35.are kept awake wondering how they will pay the bills and our challenge

:52:36. > :52:42.is to demonstrate how we would help them pay those bells.

:52:43. > :52:46.Europe is a massive drop in because it does affect our everyday lives.

:52:47. > :52:54.You touched on immigration. If we don't have control of our own

:52:55. > :53:01.borders... That's not true, they don't

:53:02. > :53:06.originate there. The policy doesn't originate in Europe.

:53:07. > :53:11.I have not sat in Westminster so I don't want to say it does and you

:53:12. > :53:15.say it doesn't. As far as I'm concerned, many laws originate from

:53:16. > :53:23.Europe. Give me three. Give me one.

:53:24. > :53:28.We are looking at immigration because that is one area where EU

:53:29. > :53:36.dictates on. We cannot control our own borders so therefore we have a

:53:37. > :53:41.situation where we have open mass immigration and we have free

:53:42. > :53:50.movement of migrants from the EU over to this country.

:53:51. > :53:57.And the other way. Some immigration is good and some

:53:58. > :54:03.migration is good. But unlimited at uncontrolled is not good for the

:54:04. > :54:10.country. We have many major problems occurring and I could list them.

:54:11. > :54:15.Is that worrying for you as a pro`EU party?

:54:16. > :54:24.There is one party that is unashamedly pro`European. A reformed

:54:25. > :54:27.Europe is what people want and we clearly stand for that.

:54:28. > :54:31.Plenty more on this to come. Let's get some more of the week's

:54:32. > :54:39.political news now. Len Tingle has our round`up in 60 seconds.

:54:40. > :54:45.The government sprang into action this week to announce an immediate

:54:46. > :54:48.?5,000 grant to help every bloodied home in the country but the timing

:54:49. > :54:54.anger those who lived near the Humber. This MP told the Commons

:54:55. > :54:57.that properties had been hit well before Christmas.

:54:58. > :55:01.Can the minister explained why it has taken two months for that

:55:02. > :55:05.announcement to be made and only after the playing fields of Eton

:55:06. > :55:10.bloodied? Anger bubbled to the surface in

:55:11. > :55:15.BBC's Question Time. It is not within a few miles of

:55:16. > :55:18.London, they don't care. The threat of the floods and the

:55:19. > :55:23.incessant nature of the bad weather has just made this a more important

:55:24. > :55:27.and bigger emergency as the weeks have passed.

:55:28. > :55:31.He says 16 is too young to vote? These young people certainly don't

:55:32. > :55:37.and they lobbied Parliament this week.

:55:38. > :55:40.We want them to realise they can influence the country and that

:55:41. > :55:45.politics influences everything in their lives.

:55:46. > :55:52.Was it right for Diana Johnson to start playing politics with flooding

:55:53. > :55:57.by making that claim about the government acting because the

:55:58. > :56:07.playing fields of Eton were flooded? I think she was making a genuine

:56:08. > :56:14.point that we `` will be felt across the region. If we only had flooding

:56:15. > :56:18.in Yorkshire, the Prime Minister wouldn't have said money was no

:56:19. > :56:24.object. Has there been a North`South divide

:56:25. > :56:29.in response to flooding? It's interesting that people say

:56:30. > :56:34.this is political but there aren't many Labour MPs in the south`west of

:56:35. > :56:44.the country and there are acres under water. You would have thought

:56:45. > :56:46.there would have been flooding protection but clearly that is not

:56:47. > :56:53.the case. Nigel Farage popped up in Somerset.

:56:54. > :57:00.Has it been helpful all these party leaders grandstanding in these

:57:01. > :57:06.floods hit towns? That is bound to happen, they are

:57:07. > :57:14.bound to go and see it from them selves. I am interested in how we're

:57:15. > :57:22.going to pay to put things right. They were Cameron said there is

:57:23. > :57:28.unlimited funds `` David Cameron. If there is unlimited funds, why are we

:57:29. > :57:34.asked in the EU? Why shouldn't we asked the EU?

:57:35. > :57:42.Would you take the money from the EU?

:57:43. > :57:51.What I am saying is, what was so wrong with Nigel's comment about

:57:52. > :57:56.having 1% of the foreign aid budget? What is wrong with starting at home

:57:57. > :58:02.with aids, just 1%, to help these people in our country.

:58:03. > :58:09.But you would take the EU money. I am not saying that we would or

:58:10. > :58:13.would not. I am saying we would take 1% of the foreign budget.

:58:14. > :58:18.So you are not prepared to take EU money?

:58:19. > :58:26.I am not prepared to say that is the case.

:58:27. > :58:30.Why wouldn't you take it? I didn't say I wouldn't take it.

:58:31. > :58:36.You have got to make a decision. Would you take it?

:58:37. > :58:41.I am not prepared to say whether I would take that money. It is

:58:42. > :58:47.probably our own money. So would you take it, yes or no?

:58:48. > :58:52.I am not saying that we would take that money.

:58:53. > :58:58.You have to take judgements in politics.

:58:59. > :59:03.There is a debate is raging that we shouldn't be spending millions

:59:04. > :59:09.abroad at a time of national crisis. Your thoughts.

:59:10. > :59:15.That is another argument. I think it is the right thing to do to stop

:59:16. > :59:20.kids dying from hunger around the world. It is right that we continue

:59:21. > :59:24.to be a responsible nation and make a contribution. It is simplistic to

:59:25. > :59:30.say we want to send that any abroad. This has been a wake`up call for

:59:31. > :59:34.people. We need to make good on financial judgements on how to spend

:59:35. > :59:42.money to prevent these floods from happening again in the future. There

:59:43. > :59:48.have been cuts to the lad budget `` flood budget.

:59:49. > :59:53.Should the voting age be reduced to 16?

:59:54. > :00:00.Absolutely. It has been our party policy for years and we need to

:00:01. > :00:04.other parties to join us. Hopefully we will be working with David

:00:05. > :00:08.McIntire and others in the area to campaign for this. Of course they

:00:09. > :00:15.should be able to vote. Would you like to see that?

:00:16. > :00:19.Personally, I would say yes because we have a high population of

:00:20. > :00:25.intelligent 15 and 16`year`olds who are more politically aware.

:00:26. > :00:31.Are they mature enough? Most of them are added at a time

:00:32. > :00:40.when we need is to connect with young people we need to connect with

:00:41. > :00:41.them so I would say yes. That's it from us thank

:00:42. > :00:49.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

:00:50. > :00:52.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

:00:53. > :00:56.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

:00:57. > :00:59.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

:01:00. > :01:03.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

:01:04. > :01:10.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

:01:11. > :01:15.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

:01:16. > :01:24.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

:01:25. > :01:29.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

:01:30. > :01:33.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

:01:34. > :01:39.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

:01:40. > :01:43.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

:01:44. > :01:46.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

:01:47. > :01:50.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

:01:51. > :01:53.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

:01:54. > :01:57.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

:01:58. > :02:02.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

:02:03. > :02:06.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

:02:07. > :02:10.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

:02:11. > :02:14.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

:02:15. > :02:19.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

:02:20. > :02:23.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

:02:24. > :02:27.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

:02:28. > :02:33.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

:02:34. > :02:37.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

:02:38. > :02:42.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

:02:43. > :02:46.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

:02:47. > :02:49.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything

:02:50. > :02:54.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

:02:55. > :02:58.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

:02:59. > :03:01.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

:03:02. > :03:06.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

:03:07. > :03:17.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

:03:18. > :03:21.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down

:03:22. > :03:25.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

:03:26. > :03:29.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

:03:30. > :03:32.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

:03:33. > :03:35.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

:03:36. > :03:42.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

:03:43. > :03:44.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

:03:45. > :03:49.south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our

:03:50. > :03:55.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

:03:56. > :03:59.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

:04:00. > :04:02.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

:04:03. > :04:07.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

:04:08. > :04:13.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

:04:14. > :04:16.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

:04:17. > :04:21.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

:04:22. > :04:24.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

:04:25. > :04:29.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

:04:30. > :04:31.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

:04:32. > :04:38.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

:04:39. > :04:44.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

:04:45. > :04:49.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

:04:50. > :04:52.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

:04:53. > :04:57.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

:04:58. > :05:03.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

:05:04. > :05:09.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

:05:10. > :05:14.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

:05:15. > :05:16.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

:05:17. > :05:22.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

:05:23. > :05:26.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

:05:27. > :05:32.reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making

:05:33. > :05:35.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

:05:36. > :05:40.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

:05:41. > :05:43.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

:05:44. > :05:47.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

:05:48. > :05:53.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

:05:54. > :05:56.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

:05:57. > :06:01.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

:06:02. > :06:07.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

:06:08. > :06:10.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

:06:11. > :06:16.commentator rather than head of communications for a political

:06:17. > :06:22.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

:06:23. > :06:25.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

:06:26. > :06:32.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

:06:33. > :06:37.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

:06:38. > :06:42.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

:06:43. > :06:51.longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is

:06:52. > :06:54.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

:06:55. > :06:58.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

:06:59. > :07:04.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

:07:05. > :07:09.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

:07:10. > :07:12.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

:07:13. > :07:16.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

:07:17. > :07:19.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

:07:20. > :07:28.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

:07:29. > :07:34.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

:07:35. > :07:38.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

:07:39. > :07:43.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

:07:44. > :07:50.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

:07:51. > :07:53.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

:07:54. > :07:58.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

:07:59. > :08:02.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

:08:03. > :08:05.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

:08:06. > :08:09.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

:08:10. > :08:12.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

:08:13. > :08:16.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

:08:17. > :08:21.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties

:08:22. > :08:27.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

:08:28. > :08:29.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

:08:30. > :08:33.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

:08:34. > :08:37.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

:08:38. > :08:42.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

:08:43. > :08:46.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

:08:47. > :08:51.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

:08:52. > :08:56.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

:08:57. > :08:59.the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories

:09:00. > :09:03.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

:09:04. > :09:07.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

:09:08. > :09:12.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

:09:13. > :09:17.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

:09:18. > :09:21.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

:09:22. > :09:24.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

:09:25. > :09:29.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

:09:30. > :09:32.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

:09:33. > :09:40.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

:09:41. > :09:46.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

:09:47. > :09:54.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,

:09:55. > :09:58.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

:09:59. > :10:02.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

:10:03. > :10:07.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

:10:08. > :10:11.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

:10:12. > :10:16.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

:10:17. > :10:19.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

:10:20. > :10:24.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

:10:25. > :10:32.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

:10:33. > :10:36.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

:10:37. > :10:41.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

:10:42. > :10:44.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

:10:45. > :10:51.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

:10:52. > :10:57.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

:10:58. > :11:01.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

:11:02. > :11:04.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

:11:05. > :11:09.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

:11:10. > :11:13.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

:11:14. > :11:18.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

:11:19. > :11:23.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

:11:24. > :11:29.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

:11:30. > :11:34.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

:11:35. > :11:39.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

:11:40. > :11:43.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

:11:44. > :11:47.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

:11:48. > :11:53.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

:11:54. > :12:00.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

:12:01. > :12:03.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

:12:04. > :12:09.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

:12:10. > :12:14.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

:12:15. > :12:19.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

:12:20. > :12:22.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

:12:23. > :12:27.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

:12:28. > :12:39.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

:12:40. > :12:46.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

:12:47. > :12:52.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

:12:53. > :12:55.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

:12:56. > :13:04.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

:13:05. > :13:08.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

:13:09. > :13:13.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

:13:14. > :13:17.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

:13:18. > :13:25.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

:13:26. > :13:29.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

:13:30. > :13:37.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

:13:38. > :13:41.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

:13:42. > :15:18.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.

:15:19. > :15:22.For many of us, making a new start on the other side of the world