:00:36. > :00:44.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth
:00:45. > :00:46.Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for
:00:47. > :00:48.middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our
:00:49. > :00:53.top story. Ed Balls says millions of people
:00:54. > :00:56.aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy
:00:57. > :01:03.with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the
:01:04. > :01:06.Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU
:01:07. > :01:08.referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP
:01:09. > :01:16.means Tory claims that a vote for UKIP
:01:17. > :01:20.Coming up call Where are thd Romanians and Bulgarians? On We look
:01:21. > :01:21.at claims the predicted influx of migrants has been massively
:01:22. > :01:36.overstated. And with me as always our top
:01:37. > :01:38.political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be
:01:39. > :01:43.tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the
:01:44. > :01:46.programme. So, just three months after his last major financial
:01:47. > :01:51.statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday,
:01:52. > :01:54.delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his
:01:55. > :02:02.own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy".
:02:03. > :02:07.own speech, pledging to build what message I will give in the Budget is
:02:08. > :02:11.the economic plan is working but the job is far from done. We need to
:02:12. > :02:13.build resilient economy which means addressing the long-term weaknesses
:02:14. > :02:17.in Britain that we don't export enough, invest enough, build enough,
:02:18. > :02:22.make enough. Those are the things I will address because we want Britain
:02:23. > :02:25.to earn its way in the world. George Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls,
:02:26. > :02:28.has also been talking ahead of the Budget. He says not everyone is
:02:29. > :02:30.feeling the benefit of the economic recovery, and again attacked the
:02:31. > :02:37.Government's decision to reduce the top rate of tax from 50 to 45%.
:02:38. > :02:41.George Osborne is only ever tough when he's having a go at the week
:02:42. > :02:45.and the voiceless. Labour is willing to face up to people on the highest
:02:46. > :02:51.incomes and say, I'm sorry, justifying a big tax cut at this
:02:52. > :02:55.time is not fair. We will take away the winter allowance from the richer
:02:56. > :02:58.pensioners, and I think that's the right thing to do. George Osborne
:02:59. > :03:03.might agree, but he's not allowed to say so. That was the Chancellor and
:03:04. > :03:08.the shadow chancellor. Janan, it seems like we are in a race against
:03:09. > :03:11.time. No one argues that the recovery is not under way, in fact
:03:12. > :03:15.it looks quite strong after a long wait, but will it feed through to
:03:16. > :03:22.the living standards of ordinary people in time for the May election?
:03:23. > :03:25.They only have 14 months to do it. The big economic variable is
:03:26. > :03:29.business investment. Even during the downturn, businesses hoarded a lot
:03:30. > :03:34.of cash. The question is, are they confident enough to release that
:03:35. > :03:38.into investment and wages? Taking on new people, giving them higher pay
:03:39. > :03:40.settlements. That could make the difference and the country will feel
:03:41. > :03:48.more prosperous and this time next year. But come to think of it, it
:03:49. > :03:52.strikes me, that how anticipated it is, it's the least talked about
:03:53. > :03:56.Budget for many years. I think that is because the economy has settled
:03:57. > :03:59.down a bit, but also because people have got used to the idea that there
:04:00. > :04:03.is no such thing as a giveaway. Anything that is a tax cut will be
:04:04. > :04:07.taken away as a tax rise or spending cut. That's true during the good
:04:08. > :04:14.times but during fiscal consolidation, it's avoidable. --
:04:15. > :04:18.unavoidable. There is a plus and minus for the Conservatives here.
:04:19. > :04:22.49% of people think the government is on roughly the right course, but
:04:23. > :04:27.only 16% think that their financial circumstances will improve this
:04:28. > :04:32.year. It will be a tough one for the Labour Party to respond to. I agree
:04:33. > :04:36.with Janan. Everyone seems bored with the run-up to the Budget. The
:04:37. > :04:41.front page of the Sunday Times was about fox hunting, the front page of
:04:42. > :04:46.the Sunday Telegraph was about EU renegotiation. Maybe we are saying
:04:47. > :04:51.this because there have not been many leaks. We have got used to
:04:52. > :04:56.them, and most of the George Osborne chat on Twitter was about how long
:04:57. > :05:04.his tie was. Freakishly long. I wouldn't dare to speculate why.
:05:05. > :05:10.Anything we should read into that? I don't know. For a long while there
:05:11. > :05:14.was no recovery, then it was it is a weak recovery, and now, all right,
:05:15. > :05:19.it's strong but not reaching everyone in the country. That is
:05:20. > :05:25.where we are in the debate. That's right, and the Conservative MPs are
:05:26. > :05:28.so anxious and they are making George Osborne announcing the rays
:05:29. > :05:34.in the personal allowance will go up, saying it might go up to 10,750
:05:35. > :05:42.from next year, and Conservative MPs say that that's OK but we need to
:05:43. > :05:45.think about the middle voters. People are saying the economy is
:05:46. > :05:49.recovering but no one is feeling it in their pocket. These are people
:05:50. > :05:54.snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The Tories are saying these are our
:05:55. > :05:57.people and we have to get to them. He has given the Lib Dems more than
:05:58. > :06:04.they could have hoped for on raising the threshold. Why is he not saying
:06:05. > :06:07.we have done a bit for you, now we have to look after our people and
:06:08. > :06:14.get some of these people out of that 40% bracket? Partly because the Lib
:06:15. > :06:17.Dems have asked for it so insistently behind-the-scenes.
:06:18. > :06:21.Somebody from the Treasury this week told me that these debates behind
:06:22. > :06:25.the scenes between the Lib Dems and Tories are incredibly tenacious and
:06:26. > :06:27.get more so every year. The Lib Dems have been insistent about going
:06:28. > :06:33.further on the threshold. The second reason is that the Tories think the
:06:34. > :06:39.issue can work for them in the next election. They can take the credit.
:06:40. > :06:42.If they enthusiastically going to ?12,000 and make it a manifesto
:06:43. > :06:48.pledge, they can claim ownership of the policy. The Liberal Democrats
:06:49. > :06:51.want to take it to 12,500, which means you are getting into minimum
:06:52. > :06:56.wage territory. It's incredibly expensive and the Tories are saying
:06:57. > :07:01.that maybe you would be looking at the 40p rate. The Tories have played
:07:02. > :07:05.as well. There have been authorised briefings about the 40p rate, and
:07:06. > :07:08.Cameron and Osborne have said that their priority was helping the
:07:09. > :07:11.lowest paid which is a useful statement to make and it appeals to
:07:12. > :07:17.the UKIP voters who are the blue-collar workers. And we are
:07:18. > :07:24.right, the economy will determine the next election? You assume so. It
:07:25. > :07:30.was ever that is. It didn't in 1992 or 1987. It did in 1992.
:07:31. > :07:35.Ed Miliband's announcement last week that a Labour government would not
:07:36. > :07:37.hold a referendum on Europe unless there's another transfer of powers
:07:38. > :07:40.from Britain to Brussels has certainly clarified matters. UKIP
:07:41. > :07:45.say it just shows the mainstream parties can't be trusted. The
:07:46. > :07:48.Conservatives think it means UKIP voters might now flock back to them
:07:49. > :07:50.as the only realistic chance of securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot
:07:51. > :07:56.reports. When it comes to Europe and
:07:57. > :08:00.Britain's relation to it, the question is whether the answer is
:08:01. > :08:03.answered by a question. To be in or not to be in, that is the question,
:08:04. > :08:06.and our politicians have seemed less interested in question itself but
:08:07. > :08:15.whether they want to let us answer it. Labour clarified their position
:08:16. > :08:22.last week. There will be no transfer of powers without an in out
:08:23. > :08:25.referendum, without a clear choice as to whether Britain will stay in
:08:26. > :08:31.the EU. That seems yes to a referendum, but hold on. I believe
:08:32. > :08:35.it is unlikely that this lock will be used in the next Parliament. So
:08:36. > :08:44.that's a no. The Conservatives say yes to asking, in 2017, if
:08:45. > :08:48.re-elected, but haven't always. In 2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by
:08:49. > :08:50.voting for a referendum on EU membership: the largest rebellion
:08:51. > :09:01.against a Tory prime minister over Europe. Prompted by a petition from
:09:02. > :09:04.over 100,000 members of the public. The wrong question at the wrong time
:09:05. > :09:06.said the Foreign Secretary of a coalition Government including
:09:07. > :09:09.selfie-conciously-pro European Lib Dems, who had a referendum pledge in
:09:10. > :09:12.their 2010 manifesto, but only in certain circumstances. So we have
:09:13. > :09:15.the newspapers, and the public meeting leaflets. UKIP have always
:09:16. > :09:18.wanted the question put regardless. But Labour's new position may change
:09:19. > :09:28.things and The Conservatives think so. I think it does, because, you
:09:29. > :09:32.know, we are saying very clearly, like UKIP, we want a referendum, but
:09:33. > :09:40.only a Conservative government can deliver it because most suffer
:09:41. > :09:46.largest would say it is possible in the first past the post system to
:09:47. > :09:54.have a UKIP government -- sophologists. And then it's easy for
:09:55. > :10:02.as to say that if a UKIP vote lets in a Conservative government, then
:10:03. > :10:04.they won't hold a referendum. UKIP seem undaunted by the clarifications
:10:05. > :10:08.of the other parties, campaigning like the rest but with a "tell it
:10:09. > :10:14.how it is, just saying what you're thinking, we aren't like them"
:10:15. > :10:18.attitude. They seem more worried about us and what we want, and I
:10:19. > :10:22.don't see that in the other parties. In parts of the UK, like South
:10:23. > :10:29.Essex, it's a message they think is working. They are taking the voters
:10:30. > :10:36.for granted again and people have had enough. People are angry, they
:10:37. > :10:41.see people saying they will get a vote on the European Union, but then
:10:42. > :10:46.it just comes down the road. They were quick to capitalise on the
:10:47. > :10:52.announcements, saying only the Conservatives will give you say, so
:10:53. > :10:55.does it change things? Not really. We have been talking about a
:10:56. > :10:58.referendum and having a debate on the European Union for years, and
:10:59. > :11:03.the other parties are playing catch up. They have a trust issue. Nobody
:11:04. > :11:07.trusts them on the European Union and that is why people come to us.
:11:08. > :11:10.Who the average UKIP voter is, or how they voted before is
:11:11. > :11:13.complicated, and what dent they might make on Conservative and
:11:14. > :11:19.Labour votes in 2015 is trickier still, but someone's been crunching
:11:20. > :11:24.the numbers anyway. We reckon it is between 25 and 30% of the electorate
:11:25. > :11:28.broadly share the UKIP motivation, so to top out at that level would be
:11:29. > :11:32.difficult. That's an awful lot of voters, but it's not the majority,
:11:33. > :11:36.and this is the reason why the main parties can't afford to just openly
:11:37. > :11:39.appealed to the UKIP electorate too hard because the elections are won
:11:40. > :11:43.appealed to the UKIP electorate too and lost amongst the other 70%, the
:11:44. > :11:48.middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An
:11:49. > :11:52.appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other
:11:53. > :11:55.groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election.
:11:56. > :11:58.Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at
:11:59. > :12:01.any support the other parties have previously enjoyed.
:12:02. > :12:04.Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now
:12:05. > :12:21.for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good
:12:22. > :12:24.morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the
:12:25. > :12:29.next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long
:12:30. > :12:32.way between now and the next election, and Conservative party
:12:33. > :12:34.way between now and the next jobs and changes. We had a cast-iron
:12:35. > :12:37.guarantee of a referendum from camera, then he three line whip
:12:38. > :12:42.people to vote against it, and now they are for it. What the Labour
:12:43. > :12:45.Party has done is open up a huge blank to us, and that is what we
:12:46. > :12:49.will go for in the European elections this coming year in May. I
:12:50. > :12:52.think there is a very strong chance that Labour will match the
:12:53. > :12:56.Conservative pledge by the next general election. There may be, but
:12:57. > :13:01.at the moment he has ruled it out, and if he does not change his mind
:13:02. > :13:08.and goes into the election with the policy as it is, the only chance of
:13:09. > :13:11.a referendum is a Tory government. If you think the Tories will form a
:13:12. > :13:14.majority, which I think is unlikely. Remember, two thirds of our voters
:13:15. > :13:20.would never vote Conservative anyway. There is still this line of
:13:21. > :13:23.questioning that assumes UKIP voters are middle-class Tories. We have
:13:24. > :13:27.some voters like that, but most of them are coming to us from Labour,
:13:28. > :13:33.some from the Lib Dems and a lot of nonvoters. But it come the election
:13:34. > :13:38.you failed to change Mr Miliband's line, I repeat, the only chance of a
:13:39. > :13:41.referendum, if you want a referendum, if that is what matters,
:13:42. > :13:45.and the polls suggest it doesn't matter to that many people, but if
:13:46. > :13:51.that is what matters, the only way you can get one is to vote
:13:52. > :13:53.Conservative. No, because you have a situation in key marginals,
:13:54. > :13:58.especially where all three parties are getting a good share, where we
:13:59. > :14:04.will see, and this depends a lot on the local elections and the European
:14:05. > :14:07.elections, there are target constituencies where UKIP has a
:14:08. > :14:12.reasonably good chance of winning a seat, and that will change the
:14:13. > :14:17.agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a Tory government less likely. Arab
:14:18. > :14:19.agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a voters are not Tory. Only a third of
:14:20. > :14:26.the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are
:14:27. > :14:30.not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar
:14:31. > :14:33.voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than
:14:34. > :14:37.conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat
:14:38. > :14:40.is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact
:14:41. > :14:46.they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a
:14:47. > :14:49.minority Ed Miliband government, it means no referendum. Labour and the
:14:50. > :14:54.Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in
:14:55. > :14:58.a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those
:14:59. > :15:01.elections will likely change the party stands and position on a
:15:02. > :15:06.referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for
:15:07. > :15:09.us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the
:15:10. > :15:14.Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we
:15:15. > :15:23.are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their
:15:24. > :15:30.policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to
:15:31. > :15:37.you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You
:15:38. > :15:41.are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal
:15:42. > :15:48.Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is
:15:49. > :15:54.comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew
:15:55. > :15:58.what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position
:15:59. > :16:04.because the better you do in a general election, the less chance
:16:05. > :16:10.there will be a referendum by 2020. No, look at the numbers. Only a
:16:11. > :16:15.third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled
:16:16. > :16:19.voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP
:16:20. > :16:25.candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said
:16:26. > :16:29.Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote
:16:30. > :16:35.Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest
:16:36. > :16:38.we are the Conservative problem, it suggests we are hurting all of the
:16:39. > :16:43.parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have
:16:44. > :16:50.lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating
:16:51. > :16:58.Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped
:16:59. > :17:03.out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance
:17:04. > :17:10.for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with
:17:11. > :17:15.respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big
:17:16. > :17:19.criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on
:17:20. > :17:24.national television on the alternatives of the European Union
:17:25. > :17:37.so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can
:17:38. > :17:43.be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No,
:17:44. > :17:47.I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the
:17:48. > :17:53.British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not
:17:54. > :17:58.being within the European Union, not being within its rule book, not
:17:59. > :18:03.suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the
:18:04. > :18:09.manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk, I
:18:10. > :18:15.want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in
:18:16. > :18:23.their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone!
:18:24. > :18:27.We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your
:18:28. > :18:33.European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it
:18:34. > :18:40.a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made
:18:41. > :18:48.a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not
:18:49. > :18:52.answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded
:18:53. > :18:59.campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote
:19:00. > :19:03.in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another
:19:04. > :19:09.former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his
:19:10. > :19:15.money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr
:19:16. > :19:25.Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers
:19:26. > :19:32.saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that
:19:33. > :19:38.true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So
:19:39. > :19:44.lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded
:19:45. > :19:48.campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general
:19:49. > :19:58.election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on
:19:59. > :20:03.paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any
:20:04. > :20:10.family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for
:20:11. > :20:17.the first seven years of my job. She is paid now? Until May, then she
:20:18. > :20:24.comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In
:20:25. > :20:30.2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no
:20:31. > :20:34.exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the
:20:35. > :20:38.National party as well as a leader of the group in European
:20:39. > :20:43.Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for
:20:44. > :20:48.whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big
:20:49. > :20:57.enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told
:20:58. > :21:00.others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big
:21:01. > :21:06.job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of
:21:07. > :21:10.very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary
:21:11. > :21:17.calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It
:21:18. > :21:23.is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is
:21:24. > :21:27.after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your
:21:28. > :21:35.wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in
:21:36. > :21:38.Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you
:21:39. > :21:44.would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that.
:21:45. > :21:47.I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the
:21:48. > :21:53.European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign
:21:54. > :21:58.in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people
:21:59. > :22:03.maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so
:22:04. > :22:07.whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial
:22:08. > :22:12.gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been
:22:13. > :22:17.allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European
:22:18. > :22:23.Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC
:22:24. > :22:27.coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without
:22:28. > :22:32.explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege
:22:33. > :22:39.by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was
:22:40. > :22:48.pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed
:22:49. > :22:52.a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over
:22:53. > :22:56.the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that
:22:57. > :23:03.the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use
:23:04. > :23:10.anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his
:23:11. > :23:15.wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't
:23:16. > :23:20.it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being
:23:21. > :23:27.taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind
:23:28. > :23:33.these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks,
:23:34. > :23:37.but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of
:23:38. > :23:41.what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily
:23:42. > :23:46.newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six
:23:47. > :23:50.times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local
:23:51. > :23:55.council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will
:23:56. > :24:06.make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes,
:24:07. > :24:12.and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not
:24:13. > :24:21.true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you
:24:22. > :24:27.consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting
:24:28. > :24:35.Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal.
:24:36. > :24:42.Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single
:24:43. > :24:45.seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails
:24:46. > :24:50.seat in the general election, if Ed majority, will you stand down as
:24:51. > :24:56.UKIP leader? I would think within about 12 hours, yes. I will have
:24:57. > :25:01.failed, I got into politics not because I wanted a career in
:25:02. > :25:04.politics, far from it. I did it because I don't think this European
:25:05. > :25:08.entanglement is right for our country. I think a lot of people
:25:09. > :25:13.have woken up to the idea we have lost control of our borders and now
:25:14. > :25:20.is the moment for UKIP to achieve what it set out to do. Will UKIP
:25:21. > :25:26.continue without you if you stand down? Of course it will. I know that
:25:27. > :25:35.everyone says it is a one-man band but it is far from that. We have had
:25:36. > :25:38.some painful moments, getting rid of old UKIP, new UKIP is more
:25:39. > :25:44.professional, less angry and it is going places. Nigel Farage, thank
:25:45. > :25:47.you for being with us. So, what else should we be looking
:25:48. > :25:49.out for in Wednesday's Budget statement? We've compiled a Sunday
:25:50. > :25:52.Politics guide to the Chancellor's likely announcements.
:25:53. > :25:56.Eyes down everyone, it's time for a bit of budget bingo. Let's see what
:25:57. > :25:59.we will get from the man who lives at legs 11. Despite some good news
:26:00. > :26:03.on the economy, George Osborne says that this will be a Budget of hard
:26:04. > :26:05.truths with more pain ahead in order to get the public finances back
:26:06. > :26:07.under control. But many in the Conservative party, including the
:26:08. > :26:11.former chancellor Norman Lamont, want Mr Osborne to help the middle
:26:12. > :26:18.classes by doing something about the 4.4 million people who fall into the
:26:19. > :26:20.40% bracket. Around one million more people pay tax at that rate compared
:26:21. > :26:22.to 2010 because the higher tax people pay tax at that rate compared
:26:23. > :26:26.threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has
:26:27. > :26:29.indicated he might tackle with inflation. Mr Osborne has
:26:30. > :26:35.in the next Conservative manifesto, but for now he is focused on helping
:26:36. > :26:38.the low paid. It's likely we will see another increase in the amount
:26:39. > :26:44.you can earn before being taxed, perhaps up another ?500 to ?10,500.
:26:45. > :26:47.The Chancellor is going to flesh out the details of a tax break for
:26:48. > :26:50.childcare payments, and there could be cries of 'house' with the promise
:26:51. > :27:08.of more help for the building industry. The Help To Buy scheme
:27:09. > :27:11.will be extended to 2020 and there could be the go-ahead for the first
:27:12. > :27:14.Garden City in 40 years. Finally, bingo regulars could be celebrating
:27:15. > :27:16.a full house with a possible cut in bingo tax.
:27:17. > :27:19.And I've been joined in the studio by the former Conservative
:27:20. > :27:21.chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford by the former Labour Cabinet
:27:22. > :27:25.minister Hazel Blears, and in Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy
:27:26. > :27:29.leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come to Norman Lamont first, you and
:27:30. > :27:34.another former Tory Chancellor, Nigel Lawson, have called in the
:27:35. > :27:45.fall in the threshold for the rate at which the 40p clicks in. I would
:27:46. > :27:48.have preferred an adjustment in the Budget but I agree with what you are
:27:49. > :27:56.saying, it sounds like the Chancellor will not do that. My main
:27:57. > :28:00.point is that you cannot go on forever and forever increasing the
:28:01. > :28:03.personal allowance and not increasing the 40% tax threshold
:28:04. > :28:08.because you are driving more and more people into that band. It is an
:28:09. > :28:11.expensive policy because in order to keep the number of people not paying
:28:12. > :28:18.tax constant, you have to keep adjusting it each year. When this
:28:19. > :28:25.was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it applied to one in 20 people, the 40%
:28:26. > :28:31.rate, it now applies to one in six people. By next year, there will be
:28:32. > :28:35.6 million people paying base. Why do you think your Tory colleagues seem
:28:36. > :28:50.happy to go along with the Lib Dems and target whatever money there is
:28:51. > :28:56.for tax cuts rather -- on the lower paid rather than the middle incomes?
:28:57. > :29:01.They are not helping the lowest paid. If you wanted to really help
:29:02. > :29:07.the lowest paid people you would raise the threshold for national
:29:08. > :29:12.insurance contributions, which is around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems
:29:13. > :29:21.stopping any rise in the 40p threshold? We are concentrating on
:29:22. > :29:29.raising the lower threshold because we believe that is the way to help
:29:30. > :29:33.those on lower incomes. Whilst they haven't benefited as much as the
:29:34. > :29:37.lower paid they have participated and I think people understand right
:29:38. > :29:41.now, if you were going to prioritise the high earners, when we are still
:29:42. > :29:45.trying to help those on lower and middle incomes who haven't enjoyed
:29:46. > :29:50.great pay increases but have got the benefit of these tax increases, that
:29:51. > :29:56.is why we would like to do it for the minimum wage level. But the
:29:57. > :30:02.poorest will not benefit at all. The poorest 16% already don't pay tax.
:30:03. > :30:07.Why don't you increase the threshold at which National Insurance starts?
:30:08. > :30:15.You only have two earned ?5,500 before you start to pay it. You've
:30:16. > :30:19.got to remember that the raising of the threshold to ?10,000 or more was
:30:20. > :30:28.something the Tories said we could not afford. Why are you continuing
:30:29. > :30:31.to do it? If you want to help the working poor, the way would be to
:30:32. > :30:37.take the lowest out of national insurance. The view we take is they
:30:38. > :30:41.are benefiting, and have benefited from, the raising of the tax
:30:42. > :30:47.threshold. You now have to earn ?10,000, we hope eventually 12,500,
:30:48. > :30:50.and that means only people on very low wages. If you opt out of
:30:51. > :30:55.national insurance, you're saying to people that you make no contribution
:30:56. > :31:00.to the welfare system, so there is a general principle that people should
:31:01. > :31:05.participate and paying, and also claim when they need something out.
:31:06. > :31:08.We thought raising the threshold was simple and effective at a time of
:31:09. > :31:15.economic austerity and the right way to deliver a helpful support to
:31:16. > :31:18.welcoming people. -- working people. With the Labour Party continue to
:31:19. > :31:22.raise the threshold, or do they think there is a case that there are
:31:23. > :31:28.too many people being dragged into the 40p tax bracket? If Norman
:31:29. > :31:31.Lamont thinks this is the right time to benefit people who are reasonably
:31:32. > :31:35.well off rather than those who are struggling to make ends meet, then
:31:36. > :31:39.genuinely, I say it respectfully, I don't think he's living in the world
:31:40. > :31:44.the rest of us are. Most working people have seen their wages
:31:45. > :31:49.effectively reduced by about ?1600 because they have been frozen, so
:31:50. > :31:54.the right thing is to help people on modest incomes. I also understand
:31:55. > :31:57.that if the 40% threshold went up, the people who would benefit the
:31:58. > :32:02.most, as ever, are the people who are really well off, not the people
:32:03. > :32:08.in the middle. The Conservatives have already reduced the 50p tax on
:32:09. > :32:12.people over ?150,000 a year, and we have to concentrate on the people
:32:13. > :32:15.going out to work, doing their best to bring their children up and have
:32:16. > :32:19.a decent life and need a bit of help. I think raising the threshold
:32:20. > :32:24.is a good thing. We would bring back the 10p tax, which we should never
:32:25. > :32:28.have abolished, and do things with regard to childcare. At the moment,
:32:29. > :32:31.childcare costs the average family as much as their mortgage, for
:32:32. > :32:35.goodness sake. We would as much as their mortgage, for
:32:36. > :32:38.hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That
:32:39. > :32:46.would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about
:32:47. > :32:49.nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many
:32:50. > :32:54.people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody
:32:55. > :32:58.has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned
:32:59. > :33:02.by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so
:33:03. > :33:05.you should not take people out of national insurance, but the
:33:06. > :33:10.principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on
:33:11. > :33:14.its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference
:33:15. > :33:19.between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to
:33:20. > :33:22.most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and
:33:23. > :33:28.there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have
:33:29. > :33:34.concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the
:33:35. > :33:37.fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the
:33:38. > :33:40.personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The
:33:41. > :33:46.calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at
:33:47. > :33:50.the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate.
:33:51. > :33:56.It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree
:33:57. > :33:59.with Hazel, if you go to the 40% rate, it's the higher earners who
:34:00. > :34:04.benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where
:34:05. > :34:11.it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if
:34:12. > :34:15.you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don't
:34:16. > :34:21.have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the
:34:22. > :34:24.Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work
:34:25. > :34:29.hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be
:34:30. > :34:35.addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a
:34:36. > :34:38.massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back
:34:39. > :34:41.into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have
:34:42. > :34:45.nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or
:34:46. > :34:52.more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000
:34:53. > :34:55.full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a
:34:56. > :35:01.million including full-time students. All parties do this. It
:35:02. > :35:04.sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour
:35:05. > :35:08.Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual
:35:09. > :35:13.levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members
:35:14. > :35:17.want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think
:35:18. > :35:21.every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour.
:35:22. > :35:26.Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want
:35:27. > :35:31.to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to
:35:32. > :35:34.make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave
:35:35. > :35:44.reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your
:35:45. > :35:47.spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can
:35:48. > :35:50.make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public
:35:51. > :35:54.finances moving towards balance. We don't think the Labour Party will
:35:55. > :35:58.take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party
:35:59. > :36:02.want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider
:36:03. > :36:10.that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that.
:36:11. > :36:15.It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better
:36:16. > :36:20.doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking
:36:21. > :36:23.about any tax cuts when the deficit is over ?100 billion, and
:36:24. > :36:27.effectively, anything you propose today can only be financed by more
:36:28. > :36:32.borrowing. I totally agree with you. I said that this week. I thought the
:36:33. > :36:37.best thing would have no Budget. The main thing is to get the deficit
:36:38. > :36:39.down. My argument is is that you have an adjustment in tax rates it
:36:40. > :36:45.should be shared between the allowances and the higher rate, but
:36:46. > :36:50.I don't think that the progress on the deficit is something we can give
:36:51. > :36:53.up on. This is still a very long way to go. We're only halfway through.
:36:54. > :36:59.Hazel, does it make sense to borrow to go. We're only halfway through.
:37:00. > :37:06.for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do this, but I agree with both Norman
:37:07. > :37:10.and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely
:37:11. > :37:14.need to get the deficit down and get finances on a strong footing. But we
:37:15. > :37:18.also have to think about having some spending in the system that in the
:37:19. > :37:21.longer run saves us money. We all know we need to build new homes. I
:37:22. > :37:27.don't think it's necessarily the right priority to give people in
:37:28. > :37:32.London mortgage relief in terms of ?600,000. We have to get the balance
:37:33. > :37:38.right. Sometimes it is right to spend to save. I'm afraid we have
:37:39. > :37:40.run out of time. There will be plenty more discussion in the lead
:37:41. > :37:45.up to the Budget on Wednesday. It's just gone 11:35am. You're
:37:46. > :37:47.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who
:37:48. > :37:51.leave us now for Sunday goodbye to viewers in Scotland who
:37:52. > :37:53.Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, Frances O'Grady, the
:37:54. > :38:05.General Secretary of the TUC, joins us discuss
:38:06. > :38:07.General Secretary of the TUC, joins Hello, you're watching the Sunday
:38:08. > :38:10.Politics for Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and the North Midlands. Comhng up
:38:11. > :38:16.today: Where are the Romani`ns and Bulgarians? We look at clails the
:38:17. > :38:19.predicted influx of migrants has been massively overstated.
:38:20. > :38:22.Plus, we'll be in Chesterfidld to hear tributes to the town's former
:38:23. > :38:30.MP Tony Benn. First, let's say hello to our guests today: Andrew Percy,
:38:31. > :38:35.Conservative MP for Brigg and Goole and Austin Mitchell, the Labour MP
:38:36. > :38:40.for great Grimsby. Hello to both of you. Austin Mitchell, as a long`time
:38:41. > :38:44.Eurosceptic, what did you m`ke of the comments of Ed Miliband during
:38:45. > :38:51.the week when he rolled out a referendum on the EU if Labour win
:38:52. > :38:55.the next election? David Caleron has tried to offer you a referendum that
:38:56. > :38:59.you will not get. It is a clever political move, but it is wrong The
:39:00. > :39:03.Labour Party should offer a referendum. They have promised one
:39:04. > :39:07.in the past which they must be consistent with. They have changed
:39:08. > :39:12.their mind and said that thd treaty was not a new constitution,
:39:13. > :39:15.therefore we would not have a referendum. The British people want
:39:16. > :39:19.to speak, it is a long time since they gave you view on it, wd should
:39:20. > :39:24.have erect an end. Andrew, Labour say they are offering stability to
:39:25. > :39:29.business, it is only the Tories who are obsessed with a referendum. The
:39:30. > :39:33.polls show that the public `nd the businesses want to see a referendum.
:39:34. > :39:38.There was a debate in the L`bour Party this week and they cotld not
:39:39. > :39:43.come up to any single decishon. We have a policy that we are bdhind the
:39:44. > :39:45.Tory Party. UKIP cannot delhver it because they cannot win seats in
:39:46. > :39:50.parliament so the only people who can give you one and two ard
:39:51. > :39:53.committed to it as the Tory Party. It could not be any clearer.
:39:54. > :39:56.The newspaper headlines warned of a massive influx of migrants from
:39:57. > :39:58.Romania and Bulgaria, keeping British people out of work `nd
:39:59. > :40:03.putting pressure on our public services. But almost three lonths on
:40:04. > :40:08.from the lifting of EU restrictions affecting the two countries, how
:40:09. > :40:11.true were those predictions? Linsey Smith reports from Lincolnshire one
:40:12. > :40:13.of the areas which was expected to see the arrival of many Rom`nians
:40:14. > :40:24.and Bulgarians. Spring has sprung and in East
:40:25. > :40:35.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire there were more than the usual signs. Once
:40:36. > :40:39.we see that the flowers are going to be ready, then we start ringing the
:40:40. > :40:43.agencies that we use and will tell them how many pickers we thhnk we
:40:44. > :40:47.want on a particular day. At the beginning of the season it light be
:40:48. > :40:54.20 or 30 and then we're right in the peak of the season now and we are up
:40:55. > :40:57.to 150. We would really likd about 200 at the moment. How many
:40:58. > :41:03.Romanians and Bulgarians have you had? I don't think we've got any.
:41:04. > :41:08.It's not just in the daffodhl fields. We spoke to farmers, pack
:41:09. > :41:11.house owners and gang agenches. All of which were poised for an influx,
:41:12. > :41:18.they haven't seen a single Romanian or Bulgarian. The message h`s got
:41:19. > :41:23.across that the area is so full of migrant workers that there hs no
:41:24. > :41:32.extra work here. You know, there is enough work for everybody. On
:41:33. > :41:38.January the 1st all eyes were on airport arrival lounges. Thd Home
:41:39. > :41:40.Office says there'll be no official figures on the numbers of ndw
:41:41. > :41:45.migrants from Romania and Btlgaria until May.
:41:46. > :41:49.If they had headed here you may expect to find some here. P`rk
:41:50. > :41:54.Academy, Boston's school with a glowing reputation for welcoming
:41:55. > :41:55.children of different nationalities. 67% of the pupils here don't speak
:41:56. > :42:10.English as their first langtage We haven't seen any, we've had no
:42:11. > :42:17.interest from Romanian or Btlgarian families at all. It certainly would
:42:18. > :42:21.have been a struggle. We ard full in many year groups, we have a waiting
:42:22. > :42:24.list in some of our year groups In order to provide that excellent
:42:25. > :42:32.education for the potential new children arriving, we would not have
:42:33. > :42:35.been in a position to do th`t. We have to take control of our
:42:36. > :42:41.borders. We have to take control of our own country. Some say if the UK
:42:42. > :42:48.has been snubbed, it's a good thing. Protesters in Boston claimed public
:42:49. > :42:51.services were already overstretched. But even Boston Borough Council say
:42:52. > :42:58.they have not been contacted by any Romanians and Bulgarians trxing to
:42:59. > :43:05.claim benefits. They have however taken a couple of tentative housing
:43:06. > :43:08.inquiries. But Liliana Demeter says the UK has missed out. A tr`ined
:43:09. > :43:13.Romanian nurse she moved here with her family a decade ago. Shd said
:43:14. > :43:19.the tone of the debate was humiliating. In the nursing field,
:43:20. > :43:22.it is well known there are lots of jobs and they need nurses. From the
:43:23. > :43:28.local hospital they have gone to Portugal to recruit. Bad publicity
:43:29. > :43:34.around coming here had also a little bit of an impact and especi`lly
:43:35. > :43:37.people with kids. Why they choose to come somewhere where they are not
:43:38. > :43:47.welcome, to be honest there are other countries they can go.
:43:48. > :43:51.Liliana says her sons are disappointed they won't makd new
:43:52. > :43:56.friends with their fellow country folk. The UK's door is still open to
:43:57. > :44:10.Romanians and Bulgarians but in this home they feel there's little
:44:11. > :44:15.appetite to join them. Not mass influx of migrants that we
:44:16. > :44:18.will let. At the time the government was under attack from not pttting
:44:19. > :44:23.any predictions as to who would come here. This is a success and that we
:44:24. > :44:27.took tough and decisive acthon in terms of changing access to benefits
:44:28. > :44:31.and housing to make us less attractive in that sense. Wd want
:44:32. > :44:35.people to come here who are going to work and contribute but we cannot
:44:36. > :44:39.have the previous situation under the last government were 2.2 million
:44:40. > :44:42.people came and put pressurd on public services. You saw thd school
:44:43. > :44:47.there that has changed greatly. Pressure on the housing, I think we
:44:48. > :44:52.took tough action and we have not seen a repeat of that, that is all
:44:53. > :44:56.for the better. Austin, why do you think they are a name is and
:44:57. > :45:00.Bulgarians have not come and the numbers that we expected? They were
:45:01. > :45:08.put off by people like Keith Vaz! Seriously, the real reason that they
:45:09. > :45:13.have not, is that the econoly here is not as prosperous as it has been
:45:14. > :45:20.in the past. We need and thd health service and also in the likds of
:45:21. > :45:27.agriculture. The downside mtst be controlling the immigration. Are
:45:28. > :45:30.there the same controls for European immigrants as there are frol those
:45:31. > :45:35.coming from other parts of the world? If we get effective controls
:45:36. > :45:40.we can manage the situation. At the moment, the government has no chance
:45:41. > :45:45.of reaching its target. An hntake of 100,000 each year? Not posshble Is
:45:46. > :45:50.that why the government withheld this report on immigration showing
:45:51. > :45:54.that it did not have the economic impact that the predicted? The
:45:55. > :45:59.public are concerned about this issue. Austin is correct and that is
:46:00. > :46:04.why they will not see us disagreeing on the likes of Europe. People are
:46:05. > :46:08.in a controlled system. Rathonal people understand there are economic
:46:09. > :46:13.advantages to an element of immigration, however, they wanted to
:46:14. > :46:17.be controlled so you do not have people being able to come over there
:46:18. > :46:20.without a job and access to the benefit system, enrolled thdir
:46:21. > :46:23.children and to our schools and access to health system that they
:46:24. > :46:28.have not contribute it to. We had to take this action but it is the start
:46:29. > :46:33.and it is one of the reasons that we must renegotiate our terms of
:46:34. > :46:37.membership and have a referdndum because that, I think, most members
:46:38. > :46:41.of the public want that to change. Some schools and Lancashire, two
:46:42. > :46:46.thirds of the pupils do not speak English as their first langtage We
:46:47. > :46:51.have schools in Grimsby werd the students are polished and it is
:46:52. > :46:54.causing problems, problems with social housing, for instancd. They
:46:55. > :46:58.are taking access to social housing that people in Britain want. Andrew
:46:59. > :47:05.is correct, that must be controlled and you cannot blame people looking
:47:06. > :47:11.for a better life back in Poland or Hungary. This is all part of a
:47:12. > :47:15.system of control that we are gradually developing and I believe
:47:16. > :47:20.it will go better. Let us not lose six of the basic facts that we need
:47:21. > :47:25.immigration and this countrx. If it at least pays the likes of the
:47:26. > :47:31.pensions of old age pensiondrs like myself! Andrew, some of the migrants
:47:32. > :47:34.are very young that are comhng into this country and look at thd people
:47:35. > :47:37.be sent to overseas to France and Spain who are retired and using the
:47:38. > :47:45.equivalent benefit system is overseas. That is correct. H am sure
:47:46. > :47:49.we can let the French and Spanish politicians argue about that one. I
:47:50. > :47:54.am concerned about what immhgration is doing to my communities. It has
:47:55. > :47:59.made a massive difference and changed towns. It has put pressure
:48:00. > :48:03.on schools and GB places but that does not mean that those coling here
:48:04. > :48:07.have not worked hard, in many cases they have worked hard and are
:48:08. > :48:13.needed. Most people in this country appreciate that. What peopld want is
:48:14. > :48:19.a controlled situation show that you can limit those coming in to meet
:48:20. > :48:24.the needs of the economy at that time. People feel hard done to
:48:25. > :48:30.because of the rules which lean that they have dedicated the samd as a
:48:31. > :48:35.British citizen. People who have grown up here at the end to that and
:48:36. > :48:38.all of a Southern, someone who turns up and is not speak English may be
:48:39. > :48:42.on the same footing as them in terms of the housing ladder and other
:48:43. > :48:49.things. It is not racist from many people, but they just want to see
:48:50. > :48:52.fairness. Across the political divide,
:48:53. > :48:54.tributes have been paid to the former Labour Cabinet Minister, Tony
:48:55. > :48:58.Benn, who represented Chestdrfield in parliament for 17 years. Let s
:48:59. > :49:07.speak to Len Tingle, who's hn Chesterfield for us. How will people
:49:08. > :49:11.there remember Tony Benn? This is the local Labour Cltb and
:49:12. > :49:14.ever since the news of his death on Friday morning they have bedn coming
:49:15. > :49:17.here to pay their respects. They have opened up the book of
:49:18. > :49:25.condolences. The first person to sign it, the current Labour MP, Toby
:49:26. > :49:30.Perkins. Their flags have bden flying at half`mast at the local
:49:31. > :49:35.town hall. Tony Benn was an MP in Bristol in the 1950s and evdry time
:49:36. > :49:39.we get to 1984 he was looking for a seat because he had lost thdirs and
:49:40. > :49:42.the general election of the previous year and here in Chesterfield they
:49:43. > :49:47.were looking for an MP becatse they were about to hold a by`election.
:49:48. > :49:51.The Labour Party here took the controversial, somewhat risky
:49:52. > :49:55.decision, to invite Tony Benn to become their candidate, the first
:49:56. > :50:00.time they have ever asked an outsider and not only that, the
:50:01. > :50:05.first time they had ever asked a Southerner. Well, this is what
:50:06. > :50:11.happened. Anthony Neil Wedgwood Benn...
:50:12. > :50:15.24,000... CHEERING. March 1984, and Tony Benn is elected
:50:16. > :50:20.as the Labour MP for Chesterfield in a famous by`election. It broke the
:50:21. > :50:24.record for the number of candidates. 16 of them lined up to take on the
:50:25. > :50:26.man who had already been a linister in the Wilson and Callaghan
:50:27. > :50:32.governments, then establishdd himself as the outspoken vohce of
:50:33. > :50:39.the Left. I hope and believd that in this campaign we helped to tnify the
:50:40. > :50:42.Labour Party. I think at the time the largest
:50:43. > :50:44.number of candidates ever in a by`election, all sorts of pdople
:50:45. > :50:49.stood, including Screaming Lord Sutch, whom I got to know bdcause he
:50:50. > :50:53.had nothing to do so he used to come to my meetings. I was afraid he d
:50:54. > :50:55.join the Labour Party beford polling day and this would confirm the loony
:50:56. > :50:58.left image. It wasn't just the left`wing
:50:59. > :51:02.reputation he had been trying to shake off. He was first elected in
:51:03. > :51:05.1950 in Bristol and in the '60s he had had to fight to stay in the
:51:06. > :51:09.House of Commons because he had inherited a peerage from his father
:51:10. > :51:13.and he had to get the law changed so he could give up that title. 20
:51:14. > :51:19.years later Margaret Thatchdr swept to power in her landslide vhctory
:51:20. > :51:22.for a second term of office. Tony Benn's by then highly marginal seat
:51:23. > :51:27.in Bristol was one of Labour's losses and he was out in thd cold.
:51:28. > :51:32.That's where the pit town of Chesterfield came in. Within months
:51:33. > :51:35.of that election its then MP was given a peerage and Labour `nnounced
:51:36. > :51:40.Tony Benn would fight the by`election. There was some
:51:41. > :51:44.suspicion at the time. What he had was that genuine sense of openness
:51:45. > :51:47.and people believed that wh`t he was saying was something he passionately
:51:48. > :51:53.believed in and, you know, of course he had many opponents. He w`s a
:51:54. > :51:57.character who divided opinion like all the great politicians are.
:51:58. > :52:00.Within three days of Tony Bdnn becoming MP, Chesterfield's miners
:52:01. > :52:07.were at the heart of the ye`r`long national miners' strike. Thd Labour
:52:08. > :52:13.Party was lukewarm to it, Tony Benn backed the strike to the hilt. You
:52:14. > :52:16.must listen to the problems of people whom the government `re
:52:17. > :52:21.trying to force back to work by cold and hunger.
:52:22. > :52:24.I think the Prime Minister hs a brutal woman and she's trying to
:52:25. > :52:28.follow policies of barbarisl which are quite unacceptable. He lade it
:52:29. > :52:31.absolutely clear that if thd Labour Party did not support the mhners in
:52:32. > :52:35.the way that they should, and in the way that they had, say in 1872 and
:52:36. > :52:42.1974, then the whole Labour and trade union movement would live to
:52:43. > :52:45.regret it and how right he was. It's been a career few can match. Top
:52:46. > :52:48.ministerial responsibility for technology and energy in thd '7 s,
:52:49. > :52:53.losing by a whisker to be Ddputy Leader in the '80s, then ch`llenging
:52:54. > :52:55.Neil Kinnock for party leaddrship. A strident peace campaigner who
:52:56. > :53:01.negotiated and helped free hostages taken by Saddam Hussein before the
:53:02. > :53:08.Gulf War. The third generathon of his family to be an MP. Now there is
:53:09. > :53:11.a fourth with his son Hilarx sitting for Leeds Central.
:53:12. > :53:15.Tony Benn himself stood down after 51 years in Parliament at the 2 01
:53:16. > :53:23.General Election. As he said at the time, he wanted to spend more time
:53:24. > :53:28.doing politics. Well, the Labour Club here hn
:53:29. > :53:31.Chesterfield and that Googld condolences are expected to remain
:53:32. > :53:36.open rate through next week with a lot of people expected to come and
:53:37. > :53:42.sign it. Let me is big to Austin bec`use when
:53:43. > :53:47.you decided to stop intervidwing football managers on television and
:53:48. > :53:51.become an MP, he was much a part of that Callaghan government. He was a
:53:52. > :53:55.superb speaker and one of the greatest. One of the last fdw
:53:56. > :53:59.independent thinkers who cotld apply his mind to issues like sochal
:54:00. > :54:04.democracy and provide a cohdrent defence. At the same time hd was
:54:05. > :54:08.also a nuisance and a destabilising factor in the party. There were
:54:09. > :54:13.three stages to his career, the moderniser when he won the dlection
:54:14. > :54:19.after being elevated to his peerage, that was a courageous act. The
:54:20. > :54:24.second was in the 1970s when he was decisive and the Wilson and
:54:25. > :54:27.Callaghan government and thd stubborn as he showed when he stood
:54:28. > :54:35.against Denis Healey and narrowly lost the deputy leadership. The
:54:36. > :54:42.third, the elder statesman, and I revered him. He used to introduce me
:54:43. > :54:46.to people like my friend Andrew Percy. That in the end I was a great
:54:47. > :54:51.admirer. Andrew, had you been surprised by
:54:52. > :54:59.the glowing tributes paid to him by the people on the right? I do not
:55:00. > :55:01.remember the fat `` the first two phases that Austin disclaimdd, I
:55:02. > :55:13.remember him as an elderly statesman. I remember he cale and
:55:14. > :55:17.spoke fantastically, a fant`stic honour. Even though you did not
:55:18. > :55:23.agree with him politically, often you would think that people on the
:55:24. > :55:30.other side of the argument would always respect his opinions will
:55:31. > :55:33.stop I was very impressed bx him. That is why I think across the
:55:34. > :55:38.political spectrum there has been so many warm tributes. Is he one of the
:55:39. > :55:41.last true conviction politicians because when you look at sole of
:55:42. > :55:46.those coming into politics these days they do not seem to believe in
:55:47. > :55:51.anything? Politics is now all about public relations. Not whethdr the
:55:52. > :55:59.ideas are correct. In that sense, he was an idealist and someone who
:56:00. > :56:02.inspired people. I was a grdat admirer of Tony Benn and spoke on
:56:03. > :56:10.many platforms with him, particularly regarding Europe.
:56:11. > :56:15.Europe was not democratic, ht was more obsessed with democracx, older
:56:16. > :56:24.democracy than with socialism, but, you know, Tony Benn made a very
:56:25. > :56:27.clear in philosophy of thosd areas. He described Margaret Thatcher as
:56:28. > :56:32.that brutal women during thd strike of the miners. We forget how
:56:33. > :56:37.polarised politics was then. Yes, I do not think she was too kind about
:56:38. > :56:43.them and even some of his own Labour Party members at that point in time.
:56:44. > :56:47.It was very polarised, some people look back with rose tinted glasses
:56:48. > :56:52.and see was politics not better in the past? And then next bre`th they
:56:53. > :56:56.see how divisive it was back then, you cannot have it both ways. I
:56:57. > :57:02.yearn for a time when you h`ve politics that is clearly divided and
:57:03. > :57:05.you have people on one side of the debate or the other whereas today
:57:06. > :57:10.there seems to be a bit of ` mushy in the middle and that is why people
:57:11. > :57:13.have been turned off to polhtics. But any time someone speaks outside
:57:14. > :57:19.of this marsh in the middle, they are presented as a bit of an
:57:20. > :57:24.assembly. It is the privatisation of everything, the damage to the unions
:57:25. > :57:31.as protectors of the people and the social balance between people and
:57:32. > :57:37.wealth, and all of that, Tony Benn fought against. Now, any sense, the
:57:38. > :57:41.Labour Party is dipping into it anyway that would have horrhfied him
:57:42. > :57:48.and did horrify him when Tony Blair was Prime Minister. Will be paid
:57:49. > :57:54.anyone who told Tony Benn hd could not bring his pipe into the studio!
:57:55. > :58:02.Let us get some more of the political news now.
:58:03. > :58:05.David Tracz has our round`up in 60 seconds.
:58:06. > :58:07.In the national league tabld published by the schools' examining
:58:08. > :58:10.board, Ofsted, Yorkshire and the Humber came bottom of the class
:58:11. > :58:13.having the lowest number of schools rated as good to outstanding. It was
:58:14. > :58:17.revealed parents in some ardas of the region have less than a 50%
:58:18. > :58:23.chance of getting a good or outstanding secondary school for
:58:24. > :58:25.their child. An independent review of de`ths at
:58:26. > :58:28.Leeds Infirmary's children's heart centre found that while surgery
:58:29. > :58:30.there was safe, some familids experienced a tragic lack of
:58:31. > :58:33.compassion and even basic khndness. A report on concerns of doctors from
:58:34. > :58:38.other hospitals has yet to be published. The long`term future of
:58:39. > :58:42.the unit won't be known unthl next year.
:58:43. > :58:45.And care workers in Doncastdr are to go on strike on Wednesday for
:58:46. > :58:47.another seven days after a breakdown in talks between Unison, thd
:58:48. > :58:53.government arbitration servhce ACAS and the private care companx, Care
:58:54. > :58:57.UK. Around 150 workers who care for adults with a range of disabilities
:58:58. > :59:06.claimed they face pay cuts of up to 50%.
:59:07. > :59:13.Andrew Percy, you used to bd a teacher, why are Yorkshire `nd the
:59:14. > :59:17.Humber schools at the bottol of the league table? We have some very good
:59:18. > :59:20.schools in this area and we should not forget that when they are
:59:21. > :59:23.presented at being at the bottom. One of the biggest problems is a
:59:24. > :59:28.lack of aspiration and some other communities. We have a problem with
:59:29. > :59:33.valuing education, that's all was a challenge where I taught and getting
:59:34. > :59:40.the solution to that is not that simple. Austin, what must bd done to
:59:41. > :59:45.improve the schools? You can go into big money without an educathon, so
:59:46. > :59:49.the only answer is better tdachers and more leadership in the schools.
:59:50. > :59:56.We are getting that but I do not like the proposals for the regarding
:59:57. > :00:01.after 2015. The north`east will not get anything and we need more money.
:00:02. > :00:05.The answer is only to carry on and get more money and bring ond better
:00:06. > :00:10.teachers. It is the budget on Wednesd`y, what
:00:11. > :00:16.is on your wish list for thd Chancellor? Action around ftel duty,
:00:17. > :00:18.keeping that frozen and anything that raises the personal tax
:00:19. > :00:23.allowance would be nice and, obviously, we want to see the
:00:24. > :00:32.litigation of the real line through to call. `` Hull. And litig`tion of
:00:33. > :00:38.the South bank as well would be nice. We also need to build more
:00:39. > :00:41.social and council housing because that gets people back to work and
:00:42. > :00:48.stimulates the whole economx. Ever fancy being Chancellor? I should
:00:49. > :00:50.have been years ago! There hs still time!
:00:51. > :00:52.That's about it from us. Cole and joiners! Thanks to our guests today,
:00:53. > :00:54.Austin Mitchell and Andrew Percy. Now, let's go back to Andrew
:00:55. > :00:55.Austin Mitchell and Andrew Percy. Now, let's go back to Andrew Neil in
:00:56. > :00:59.London. failure marked success. -- not
:01:00. > :01:12.success. Andrew, back to you. Has George Osborne got a rabbit in
:01:13. > :01:16.his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor find a way to help the squeezed
:01:17. > :01:24.middle? And how do Labour respond? All questions for The Week Ahead.
:01:25. > :01:28.And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to discuss the budget is the general
:01:29. > :01:33.secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome
:01:34. > :01:36.back to the programme. I know the TUC has a submission, but if you
:01:37. > :01:42.could pick one thing that you wanted the Chancellor to do above all, what
:01:43. > :01:46.would it be? We want a budget for working people, which means we have
:01:47. > :01:52.to crack the long-term problem of investment in the British economy.
:01:53. > :01:58.Certainly I would like the Chancellor to merit that title they
:01:59. > :02:01.want of the new workers party, and take action on living standards but
:02:02. > :02:11.if they're going to do that it's got to be about unlocking investment. In
:02:12. > :02:13.the period where the economy has been flat-lining there has been
:02:14. > :02:17.little business investment, been flat-lining there has been
:02:18. > :02:22.there are signs towards the end of last year that it is beginning to
:02:23. > :02:25.pick up. But a long way to go. The problem is we have key industries
:02:26. > :02:31.like construction and manufacturing that are still smaller than they
:02:32. > :02:34.were before the recession. The government itself, of course, has
:02:35. > :02:40.slashed its own capital investment budget by half. There is plenty of
:02:41. > :02:45.good and important work that needs to be done from building houses to
:02:46. > :02:49.improving the transport system, to improving our schools. And the
:02:50. > :02:55.government really needs to pick up that shovel and start investing in
:02:56. > :02:58.our economy to get the decent jobs we need, the pay increases we need,
:02:59. > :03:02.and that in itself will help stimulate demand. It was Alistair
:03:03. > :03:08.Darling who cut in 2011, and stimulate demand. It was Alistair
:03:09. > :03:13.interesting that Ed Balls in his plans for the next parliament would
:03:14. > :03:16.run a current budget surplus by the end of the parliament as opposed to
:03:17. > :03:21.George Osborne who would have an overall budget surplus. That gives
:03:22. > :03:24.Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to do what you talk about, but he is
:03:25. > :03:28.reticent to talk about it. He does not want to say that he has an
:03:29. > :03:31.opportunity to spend on investment because he fears if he says it he
:03:32. > :03:35.will be attacked by the Conservatives for being
:03:36. > :03:41.irresponsible. Why is business doing this? The recession was deeper than
:03:42. > :03:47.any since the war and the recovery was slower than almost any since the
:03:48. > :03:52.war. The lag, the time it takes to get over that is longer than anyone
:03:53. > :03:56.expected. I read the same evidence as you towards the end of last year
:03:57. > :04:00.pointing to money being released, and it depends what it is
:04:01. > :04:03.pointing to money being released, on, whether it is capital investment
:04:04. > :04:07.or bringing in people on higher wages. The one surprise in the
:04:08. > :04:11.downturn is how well the employment figures have done, but they have not
:04:12. > :04:15.invested in new capacity and they are sitting on a lot of dosh. I
:04:16. > :04:22.looked at one set of figures that said if you took the biggest company
:04:23. > :04:25.in Britain, they have about 715 billion pounds in corporate treasury
:04:26. > :04:32.-- the biggest companies. I think it's reduced a little but they are
:04:33. > :04:36.sitting on a mountain in dash of skills. Yes, but they're not
:04:37. > :04:40.investing in skills, wages, or sustainable jobs. The new jobs we
:04:41. > :04:46.have seen created since 2010, the vast majority of them have been in
:04:47. > :04:48.low paid industries, and they are often zero hours, or insecure, or
:04:49. > :04:55.part-time. So it's not delivering a often zero hours, or insecure, or
:04:56. > :04:59.people. Government ministers, as you know when you lobby them, they are
:05:00. > :05:04.anxious to make out that they know the job is not done and the recovery
:05:05. > :05:09.has just begun, but the one bit they are privately proud of, although
:05:10. > :05:14.they can't explain it, is how many private-sector jobs have been
:05:15. > :05:17.created. A lot of unions have done sensible deals with employers to
:05:18. > :05:22.protect jobs through this period, but it's not sustainable. The
:05:23. > :05:27.average worker in Britain today is now ?2000 a year worse off in real
:05:28. > :05:35.terms than they were. On a pay against price comparison? It doesn't
:05:36. > :05:44.take into account tax cuts. The raising of the personal allowance is
:05:45. > :05:48.far outweighed by the raising VAT. Does the raising of the threshold
:05:49. > :05:51.which the Lib Dems are proud of and the Tories are trying to trade
:05:52. > :05:56.credit for, does it matter to your members? -- take credit for. It
:05:57. > :06:01.matters that it is eclipsed by the cuts in benefits and know what is
:06:02. > :06:05.conned any more. We're going to hear a lot about the raising of the
:06:06. > :06:10.allowance, but as long as the real value of work, tax credits, things
:06:11. > :06:14.like that, people won't feel it in their pocket, and they will find it
:06:15. > :06:17.harder and harder to look after their family. When you look at the
:06:18. > :06:21.other things that could take over from consumer spending which has
:06:22. > :06:25.driven the recovery, held by house price rising in the south, it is
:06:26. > :06:28.exports and business investment and you look at the state of the
:06:29. > :06:33.Eurozone and the emerging markets which are now in trouble, and the
:06:34. > :06:38.winter seems to have derailed the US recovery. It won't be exports.
:06:39. > :06:45.Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think that will contribute to growth until
:06:46. > :06:51.2015 -- OBI. So the figures we should be looking at our business
:06:52. > :06:55.investment. And also the deficit. The deficit is 111 billion, and that
:06:56. > :07:00.is a problem, because we are not at the end of the cutting process,
:07:01. > :07:04.there are huge cuts to be made. I understand we are only a third of
:07:05. > :07:08.the way through. That will definitely affect business
:07:09. > :07:12.confidence. It is clear that the strategy has failed. Borrowing has
:07:13. > :07:16.gone up and it's not delivered improved living standards and better
:07:17. > :07:22.quality jobs, so cutting out of the recession is not going to work. The
:07:23. > :07:23.structural budget deficit was going to be eliminated three weeks today
:07:24. > :07:30.under the original plan. They to be eliminated three weeks today
:07:31. > :07:35.target after target. Every economist has their own definition of that. I
:07:36. > :07:40.think Mark Carney is right when he says that fundamentally the economy
:07:41. > :07:44.is unbalanced and it is not sustainable, growth is not
:07:45. > :07:50.sustainable. But if it clicked on, it would be more balanced. It is not
:07:51. > :07:54.just north and south and manufacturing a way out with
:07:55. > :08:00.services, but it is also between the rich and everybody else. What do you
:08:01. > :08:02.make of the fact that there will effectively be another freezing
:08:03. > :08:10.public sector pay, or at least no more than 1%? Not even that for
:08:11. > :08:15.nurses and health workers. But they will get 3% progression pay. 70 of
:08:16. > :08:17.nurses will not get any pay rise at all. They get no progression pay at
:08:18. > :08:24.all. I think this is smack in the all. They get no progression pay at
:08:25. > :08:27.mouth. Smack in the mouth to dedicated health care workers who
:08:28. > :08:33.will feel very, very discontented about the decision. Danny
:08:34. > :08:37.Alexander, I saw him appealing to health workers do not move to strike
:08:38. > :08:44.ballots and said they should talk to their department. But about what? Is
:08:45. > :08:50.that real pay cut has been imposed, what are workers left with? So do
:08:51. > :08:57.you expect as a result of yet more tough controls on public sector pay
:08:58. > :09:00.that unrest is inevitable? I know some unions will be consulting with
:09:01. > :09:06.their members, but ultimately it's always members who decide what to
:09:07. > :09:11.do. It does seem to me insulting not to at least be honest and say that
:09:12. > :09:18.we are cutting real pay of nurses, health care workers, on the back of
:09:19. > :09:24.a ?3 billion reorganisation of the NHS that nobody wanted and nobody
:09:25. > :09:29.voted for. Their long-term changes taking place here that almost talks
:09:30. > :09:37.about -- there are long-term changes. It is how lower percentage
:09:38. > :09:40.wages have become of GDP on how big the percentage of profits is. It
:09:41. > :09:46.seems to me there is a strong case for some kind of realignment there.
:09:47. > :09:50.The biggest event of my life, in this world, is the entry of a couple
:09:51. > :09:53.of billion more people into the labour supply. At the end of the
:09:54. > :09:58.Cold War, India and China plugged into the global economy. If there is
:09:59. > :10:01.a greater supply of that factor of production, logically you conclude
:10:02. > :10:05.that wages will fall or stagnate and that has been the story in this
:10:06. > :10:07.that wages will fall or stagnate and country and America and large parts
:10:08. > :10:11.of Western Europe in the last generation. What is not possible is
:10:12. > :10:15.for governments to do much about it. They can ameliorate it at the
:10:16. > :10:18.margins, but the idea that the government controls living
:10:19. > :10:22.standards, which has become popular over the last six months, and the
:10:23. > :10:27.Labour Party have in establishing that, and I don't think it's true.
:10:28. > :10:31.George Osborne's options are astonishingly limited compared to
:10:32. > :10:36.public expectations. If wages have reached a modern record low as
:10:37. > :10:42.percentage of GDP, who is going to champion the wage earner? We have
:10:43. > :10:47.lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed away, so who is the champion? The
:10:48. > :10:52.trade union movement is the champion of ordinary workers. We need those
:10:53. > :10:58.larger-than-life figures that we will mess. Have you got
:10:59. > :11:01.larger-than-life figures that we have a generation of workers coming
:11:02. > :11:05.through. One thing about the loss of Bob Crow is that the whole union
:11:06. > :11:09.movement has responded strongly to that, and we want to say that we are
:11:10. > :11:14.strong and united and here to stand up for working people and we will
:11:15. > :11:18.fight as hard as Bob Crow did. Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony
:11:19. > :11:21.Benn, we can be sure they will not come from Eton because they all have
:11:22. > :11:25.jobs in the government. I want to put up on the screen what even
:11:26. > :11:35.Michael Gove was saying about this coterie of Old Etonian 's.
:11:36. > :11:44.He's right, is he not? He's absolutely right. We have the idea
:11:45. > :11:45.of the manifesto being written by five people from Eton and one from
:11:46. > :11:52.Saint Pauls. A remarkable five people from Eton and one from
:11:53. > :11:54.social mobility that George Osborne, who had the disadvantage of going to
:11:55. > :12:03.Saint Pauls has made it into that inner circle. Here is the question,
:12:04. > :12:06.what is Michael Gove up to? If you saw the response from George
:12:07. > :12:09.Osborne, there was no slap down and they know this is an area they are
:12:10. > :12:14.weak on an David Cameron will not comment on it. If this had been a
:12:15. > :12:18.Labour shadow minister making a similarly disloyal statement, they
:12:19. > :12:21.might have been shot at dawn. But there is a real tolerance from
:12:22. > :12:25.Michael Gove to go freelance which comes from George Osborne. It's
:12:26. > :12:29.about highlighting educational reforms that he wants to turn every
:12:30. > :12:32.school in to eat and so it won't happen in the future. But it's also
:12:33. > :12:36.pointing out who did not go to Eton school and who would be the best
:12:37. > :12:40.candidate to replace David Cameron as leader, George Osborne, and who
:12:41. > :12:44.did go to Eton school, Boris Johnson. Michael Gove is on
:12:45. > :12:51.manoeuvres to destroy Boris Johnson's chances of being leader.
:12:52. > :12:57.It's a good job they don't have an election to worry about. Hold on. I
:12:58. > :13:00.think they are out of touch with businesses as well as working
:13:01. > :13:04.people. You ask about who is talking about wage earners. Businesses are.
:13:05. > :13:09.They are worried that unless living standards rise again there will be
:13:10. > :13:15.nobody there to buy anything. We are running out of time, but the TUC,
:13:16. > :13:20.are enthusiastic about HS2? We supported. We think it's the kind of
:13:21. > :13:24.infrastructure project that we need to invest in long-term. He could, if
:13:25. > :13:29.we get it right, rebalance north and south and create good jobs along the
:13:30. > :13:35.way -- it could. Thank you very much tool. I have to say that every week
:13:36. > :13:39.-- thank you very much to you all. That's all for today. I'll be back
:13:40. > :13:44.next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at
:13:45. > :13:45.midday with the Daily Politics. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:46. > :13:48.Sunday Politics.