:00:37. > :00:44.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:45. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:47. > :00:49.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:50. > :00:54.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:55. > :00:58.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:59. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:02. > :01:08.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:09. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:11. > :01:19.Coming up, educating Yorkshire. Why plan
:01:20. > :01:22.Coming up, educating Yorkshire. Why the head of the school made famous
:01:23. > :01:39.on TV has work better? -- Uxbridge. And who
:01:40. > :01:41.better to help guide you through all of that than three journalists, who
:01:42. > :01:45.dispense wisdom faster than Grant Shapps calls out the numbers in his
:01:46. > :01:48.local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and
:01:49. > :01:54.they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick
:01:55. > :02:00.Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:02:01. > :02:04.So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so
:02:05. > :02:08.many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of
:02:09. > :02:11.room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably
:02:12. > :02:15.a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5
:02:16. > :02:16.hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in
:02:17. > :02:48.three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their
:02:49. > :02:51.own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing
:02:52. > :02:54.Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and
:02:55. > :03:06.explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget
:03:07. > :03:10.Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of
:03:11. > :03:13.the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the
:03:14. > :03:17.clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one
:03:18. > :03:20.question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be
:03:21. > :03:22.something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily
:03:23. > :03:28.towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what
:03:29. > :03:32.those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to
:03:33. > :03:34.the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the
:03:35. > :03:41.Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and
:03:42. > :03:43.remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures
:03:44. > :03:48.are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on
:03:49. > :03:55.Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax
:03:56. > :04:00.personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which
:04:01. > :04:05.ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster
:04:06. > :04:09.boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to
:04:10. > :04:13.pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,
:04:14. > :04:21.rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.
:04:22. > :04:25.This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend
:04:26. > :04:29.it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to
:04:30. > :04:33.what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not
:04:34. > :04:40.get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of
:04:41. > :04:43.Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all
:04:44. > :04:47.the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an
:04:48. > :04:50.hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people
:04:51. > :04:54.of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering
:04:55. > :04:57.the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,
:04:58. > :05:01.think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.
:05:02. > :05:08.Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed
:05:09. > :05:11.Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits
:05:12. > :05:19.down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.
:05:20. > :05:22.I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget
:05:23. > :05:25.than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and
:05:26. > :05:28.other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and
:05:29. > :05:37.detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?
:05:38. > :05:40.Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days
:05:41. > :05:43.later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still
:05:44. > :05:44.seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of
:05:45. > :06:00.voters? How significant are these two poles
:06:01. > :06:10.this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party
:06:11. > :06:15.a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At
:06:16. > :06:18.first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where
:06:19. > :06:23.all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been
:06:24. > :06:28.ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and
:06:29. > :06:33.others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which
:06:34. > :06:39.is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the
:06:40. > :06:44.weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the
:06:45. > :06:48.Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the
:06:49. > :06:53.baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The
:06:54. > :06:57.Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next
:06:58. > :07:02.time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching
:07:03. > :07:07.them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing
:07:08. > :07:11.issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again
:07:12. > :07:15.Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were
:07:16. > :07:20.saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy
:07:21. > :07:25.issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is
:07:26. > :07:33.controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much
:07:34. > :07:38.into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the
:07:39. > :07:43.pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten
:07:44. > :07:47.years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.
:07:48. > :07:52.Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There
:07:53. > :07:57.is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year
:07:58. > :08:00.before an election. What I underestimated was, how many
:08:01. > :08:06.frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people
:08:07. > :08:11.who are frustrated by low interest rates and tax rates on pension pots.
:08:12. > :08:16.This was an explicit gesture for them. That is what has paid off in
:08:17. > :08:22.the polls in the past few days. You spend all of your money on your
:08:23. > :08:27.wardrobe, is that right? The bingo poster was a kind of get out of jail
:08:28. > :08:31.card for Labour. It gave them something to zoom in on. Everyone
:08:32. > :08:37.beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman. We read in the daily
:08:38. > :08:43.Telegraph that the fingerprints of the Chancellor were all over this
:08:44. > :08:51.poster. The Chancellor signed off it -- off on it and so did Lynton
:08:52. > :08:58.Crosby. They referred to working class people as, they are. How did
:08:59. > :09:03.it get into the Telegraph? We can only presume but grant Shapps made
:09:04. > :09:07.it clear that it was not him. We had a time when Labour politicians, we
:09:08. > :09:11.saw from the response of Ed Miliband onwards, they were not quite sure
:09:12. > :09:16.how to react to this budget. A lot of detail had to be absorbed.
:09:17. > :09:27.Suddenly, here is something we can talk about. You can see the thinking
:09:28. > :09:30.behind the poster was very sensible. We are not Tory toffs, we are
:09:31. > :09:32.interested in helping people who do not come from our backgrounds. The
:09:33. > :09:39.wording was awful and played into every cliche. It was all his fault.
:09:40. > :09:48.It shows how unsophisticated he was. There were people from Tory HQ
:09:49. > :09:59.who agreed the budget. A month down the line will the budget look as
:10:00. > :10:02.good? Probably. Once people look at it, pensions are fiendishly
:10:03. > :10:06.conjugated. Once they look and see what it will do with people having
:10:07. > :10:10.to pay for their own care because they can now take capital at their
:10:11. > :10:15.pension, that will come as a shock to a lot of people with small
:10:16. > :10:23.savings. It all be gone on their care. The polling will be neck and
:10:24. > :10:26.neck all the way. In the past, George Osborne has been accused of
:10:27. > :10:29.using his Budgets to tinker at the margins or pull cheap tricks on his
:10:30. > :10:31.political opponents. Perish the thought. But the big surprise in
:10:32. > :10:34.this year's statement was a genuinely radical shake-up of the
:10:35. > :10:45.pensions system that will affect most people who've yet to retire. At
:10:46. > :10:49.the moment, everyone is saving money into a defined contribution pension,
:10:50. > :10:55.that is the type most common in the private sector. They can take 25% of
:10:56. > :10:59.the pot is a tax-free lump sum when they retire. The rest of the money,
:11:00. > :11:03.for most people, they are forced to buy an annuity, a form of insurance
:11:04. > :11:07.which provide a guaranteed monthly income until they die. Annuities
:11:08. > :11:16.have hardly been a bargain since interest rates were flat slashed
:11:17. > :11:21.following the financial crash. Even with a ?100,000 pension pot would
:11:22. > :11:25.only get an income of ?5,800 a year at current rates. From 2018,
:11:26. > :11:29.pensioners will not be forced to buy an annuity. They can do what they
:11:30. > :11:34.like with their money, even taking the entire pot as a lump some but
:11:35. > :11:46.paying tax on 75% of it. With an average pension pot closer
:11:47. > :11:53.to around ?30,000, pensioners would be more likely to buy a Skoda
:11:54. > :11:58.instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly retired people who take the cash are
:11:59. > :12:02.more likely to spend the money paying off their mortgage, helping a
:12:03. > :12:05.family member to buy a property or investing the money elsewhere. Well,
:12:06. > :12:09.earlier I spoke to the Pensions Minister. He's a Lib Dem called
:12:10. > :12:11.Steve Webb. I began by asking him if he still thought the reforms might
:12:12. > :12:19.lead to pensioners splurging all their savings on supercars. What
:12:20. > :12:23.this reform is about is treating people as adults. For far too long,
:12:24. > :12:26.we have said, we will make sure you save for your old age and then we
:12:27. > :12:32.will control each year how much is spent on what you spend it on. What
:12:33. > :12:36.we are saying is because we have formed -- reformed the state
:12:37. > :12:39.pension, we will be much more relaxed about what people do with
:12:40. > :12:43.their own money. The evidence is that people who have been frugal and
:12:44. > :12:48.saved hard for retirement do not generally blows a lot. They will
:12:49. > :12:52.spin it out. It is treating people as adults and giving them choices
:12:53. > :13:01.they should have had all along. It is a red herring, isn't it? The
:13:02. > :13:07.average pension pot is between 25000 and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an
:13:08. > :13:12.option, correct? I gather only about 5000 people a year retiring can buy
:13:13. > :13:15.a flashy Italian sports car. It might be about paying off a
:13:16. > :13:19.mortgage, paying off outstanding debts. Maybe spending more money
:13:20. > :13:23.earlier in retirement when they are fit and able and can enjoy it more.
:13:24. > :13:28.We will give people guidance. We will make sure when they retire,
:13:29. > :13:31.there is someone to have a conversation with talking through
:13:32. > :13:35.the implications of spending the money early and options of investing
:13:36. > :13:42.it. This will be a real step forward. Even if you have a much
:13:43. > :13:46.bigger pension pot, say half ?1 million, which is way bigger than
:13:47. > :13:51.the average, even then the marginal rates of tax will be a disincentive
:13:52. > :13:59.to take it all out at once. You will lose huge chunks of it at the 40%
:14:00. > :14:02.band and then the 45% band. The tax system gives you the incentive to
:14:03. > :14:07.spread it out if the tax threshold is a bit over 10000 and the state
:14:08. > :14:13.pension is a bit over 7000, the first 3000 you draw out in a given
:14:14. > :14:21.year is tax-free. The next band is at 20%. Spreading your money will
:14:22. > :14:24.mean you pay less tax. That is why, in general, people will not blow the
:14:25. > :14:29.lot up front. They will spread it out over their retirement. You have
:14:30. > :14:35.kept this policy quiet. Not even a hint. How did you test it? How did
:14:36. > :14:40.you make sure it would be robust? You did not do a consultation. I
:14:41. > :14:45.have been talking about freeing up the annuity market for a decade. The
:14:46. > :14:49.idea of giving people more choice. The government has relaxed rules
:14:50. > :14:53.over this Parliament. It was not a completely new idea. We know in
:14:54. > :15:01.places like Australia and America, people have these freedoms. We
:15:02. > :15:04.already have something to judge it by. We will spend the next year
:15:05. > :15:06.talking to people, working it through. There will be a three-month
:15:07. > :15:10.consultation. I want people to have choices about their own money. There
:15:11. > :15:16.is detail still to be worked out and we are in listening mode about how
:15:17. > :15:18.we implement it. When you announce something you cannot do widespread
:15:19. > :15:22.consultation, for the reasons I have given, you do run the risk of
:15:23. > :15:26.unforeseen consequences? Pension companies this morning are
:15:27. > :15:30.indicating, you, the government can write you are looking for ?25
:15:31. > :15:35.billion of infrastructure investment from us. You hold our shell below
:15:36. > :15:53.the water line. That may not happen. We spoke internally about the
:15:54. > :16:03.implications for instruction -- infrastructure. It seems to me there
:16:04. > :16:10.will still be long-term investments. Many people want to turn their whole
:16:11. > :16:13.pot into an income. I understand the insurance companies are lobbying,
:16:14. > :16:19.but I'm convinced there will still be plenty of money for investment
:16:20. > :16:24.and infrastructure. If the Chancellor's pro-savings measures
:16:25. > :16:30.work, that will generate more savings. With no requirement now to
:16:31. > :16:36.buy an annuity, surely it is the case that pension pots are another
:16:37. > :16:42.ordinary savings fund, so why should they continue to get favourable tax
:16:43. > :16:48.treatment? Bear in mind that a lot of the tax treatment of pensioners
:16:49. > :16:53.is tax deferred so most people pay tax at the standard rate. If they
:16:54. > :17:01.put money into a pension, they don't pay tax when they earn it, but they
:17:02. > :17:06.do at retirement. We do want, we will still have automatic enrolment
:17:07. > :17:11.into workplace pensions, we do want people to build up, because at age
:17:12. > :17:18.20 and 30 nobody thinks about retirement. It is still vital that
:17:19. > :17:24.people do reach retirement to have these new choices with a decent
:17:25. > :17:29.sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax breaks because they were supposed to
:17:30. > :17:33.provide an income in retirement, that is how it was structured, but
:17:34. > :17:40.that is no longer a requirement, surely that undermines the case that
:17:41. > :17:46.if they get tax breaks, other forms of savings should get tax breaks.
:17:47. > :17:59.Other forms do get tax breaks, of course. The return with ISAs is tax
:18:00. > :18:08.free. The point with pensions is that you are simply deferring your
:18:09. > :18:12.earnings. There is a bit when high tax rate payers get a kick when they
:18:13. > :18:17.are working and then retire on standard rate, so there is the issue
:18:18. > :18:22.of the top getting too many tax breaks, but the basic principle that
:18:23. > :18:29.you pay tax when you get the income seems right to me and isn't affected
:18:30. > :18:33.by these changes. You have announced save friendly measures, are we right
:18:34. > :18:39.to look at them as a consolation prize because savers have suffered
:18:40. > :18:44.from the Government's policy of keeping interest rates abnormally
:18:45. > :18:49.low? It is certainly the case that very low interest rates have been a
:18:50. > :18:53.huge boon to people of working age with mortgages, and people who have
:18:54. > :18:59.retired said they thought they could have got a better deal on their
:19:00. > :19:04.savings. I think there is a recognition that whilst we have done
:19:05. > :19:10.the right thing with pensioners on the state pension, we have brought
:19:11. > :19:20.in the triple lock, and many will bent on -- benefit from these
:19:21. > :19:24.changes. Why don't savers who are not pensioners get the same help?
:19:25. > :19:31.They have been hit by low interest rates as well. Those of working
:19:32. > :19:35.age, many of them say they have benefited from low interest rates
:19:36. > :19:44.was predominantly people in retirement have not had the benefit.
:19:45. > :19:52.Obviously people of working age will have benefited from the tax
:19:53. > :19:58.allowance so it is a myth to say the Budget was all about pensioners. And
:19:59. > :20:01.yet even when the Office for Budget Responsibility takes into account
:20:02. > :20:07.your new measures, it still shows that over the next five years
:20:08. > :20:14.households will save less and less, indeed the savings ratio falls by
:20:15. > :20:18.50%. You haven't done enough. One of the things we know is that the
:20:19. > :20:23.economy is picking up strongly, and as we have more confidence about the
:20:24. > :20:26.future they will be more willing to consume now, so without these
:20:27. > :20:32.measures it may be that the saving rate would have fallen further. We
:20:33. > :20:38.want people to save and spend, it is about getting the right balance. As
:20:39. > :20:43.the economy picks up, people will want to spend more of their money
:20:44. > :20:48.and it is about getting the balance right. You make the point that if
:20:49. > :20:52.people are little profligate with their private pensions, they will
:20:53. > :20:57.have the state pension to fall back on and it will be higher than it has
:20:58. > :21:02.been, but it is also the case that in these circumstances they will
:21:03. > :21:07.still be entitled to housing benefit and even to perhaps some council tax
:21:08. > :21:14.benefit as well. Do you know by how much this could put the welfare bill
:21:15. > :21:19.up? We think the impact will be relatively modest because the sort
:21:20. > :21:23.of people who save for a pension and make sacrifices while they are at
:21:24. > :21:30.work are not the sort of people who get to 65 and decide to blow the lot
:21:31. > :21:33.for the great privilege of receiving council tax benefit or housing
:21:34. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the margins and
:21:46. > :21:45.benefit. There will be people on the who retire with some capital want to
:21:46. > :21:52.put some money away for their funeral. People like to save even
:21:53. > :21:58.into retirement so the myth of the spendthrift pensioner I don't
:21:59. > :22:04.believe. I think this has been rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a
:22:05. > :22:19.Lamborghini yourself? If you turned the camera around you would see my
:22:20. > :22:22.2-door Corsa! What's your favourite thing about an
:22:23. > :22:25.election? Could it be the candidates ringing on your door while you're
:22:26. > :22:28.having dinner? The leaflets piling up on your doormat? Or the endless
:22:29. > :22:31.adverts aimed at hardworking families? Well, if you thought that
:22:32. > :22:34.was bad enough, then you might want to consider going overseas for the
:22:35. > :22:37.2015 election because the parties are going to be aiming their message
:22:38. > :22:43.at you like never before. Adam's been to Worcester to find out more.
:22:44. > :22:48.One of the most famous political figures in history lived here, she
:22:49. > :22:53.is called Worcester woman. She was in her 30s, working class with a
:22:54. > :22:57.couple of kids, aspirational yet worried about quality of life. But
:22:58. > :23:01.she wasn't a real person, she was a label for the kind of voter new
:23:02. > :23:09.Labour were trying to reach and she was later joined by Mondeo man and
:23:10. > :23:13.several others. Doesn't that all seem a bit 90s? The technique,
:23:14. > :23:20.called segmentation, was used by George Bush in 2004. Then refined by
:23:21. > :23:26.Barack Obama. Rather than focusing on crude measures like cars and
:23:27. > :23:29.hometowns, they delved into the minds of voters. It is not just
:23:30. > :23:35.women, not just people who live in cities, but if you start to put
:23:36. > :23:41.together these groups of people you can even in an anecdote or way
:23:42. > :23:49.imagine who they are, what types of language and imagery might relate to
:23:50. > :23:53.them. We have been given access to a new polling model being used here by
:23:54. > :24:00.this firm, which is pretty close to the one we are told is being used by
:24:01. > :24:05.the Tories. It carves the country into six personality types, and we
:24:06. > :24:10.are trying it out on Worcester woman and wast of man. We are using an
:24:11. > :24:18.online quiz to work out who is in which segment. Meet new monk,
:24:19. > :24:26.Susie. She feels well represented. I know the Budget and the increases to
:24:27. > :24:31.childcare, I think at the moment I am fairly represented. This puts her
:24:32. > :24:36.in the category of optimistic contentment, people who feel they
:24:37. > :24:44.are doing OK. Terry, on the other hand, isn't happy about Britain
:24:45. > :24:53.today. Health and safety and all that! I hardly recognise the country
:24:54. > :25:00.a living in any more? Yes. Are you ready for the result? He is Mr
:25:01. > :25:04.comfortable nostalgia, they tend to favour the Tories and UKIP. They
:25:05. > :25:10.dislike the cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the
:25:11. > :25:18.worst. That sums me up. Tony is worried as well but feels much less
:25:19. > :25:26.secure. I look forward to the future with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety.
:25:27. > :25:36.Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. His category is... You feel a bit
:25:37. > :25:43.insecure, you think the Government could probably help you more? Yes.
:25:44. > :25:49.Labour picks up a lot of these voters. This man is being asked to
:25:50. > :25:57.do more and more at work, but he is getting less and less. I am getting
:25:58. > :26:02.more towards the despair side. Things are getting tougher,
:26:03. > :26:08.generally? It puts him into the segment called long-term despair,
:26:09. > :26:17.people who feel left out. Finally, this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am
:26:18. > :26:25.a bit of an idealist. Her idealism makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I
:26:26. > :26:29.am a liberal person. Apparently a lot of the media fit into this
:26:30. > :26:33.category as well. There is one group of voters we have not come across,
:26:34. > :26:38.people who show calm persistence. They hope things will get better but
:26:39. > :26:44.don't expect them to. They are coping, rather than comfortable.
:26:45. > :26:48.Presumably they are all out of work. Which group are you win? You can
:26:49. > :26:53.take the poll on the BBC website, and in the coming weeks we will be
:26:54. > :27:01.doing our own polling using the six segments to see of the politicians
:27:02. > :27:05.really have worked out how we think. And as Adam said, if you want to try
:27:06. > :27:07.the survey for yourself, you can go to the BBC website and click on the
:27:08. > :27:16.link. And we're joined now by the
:27:17. > :27:23.pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to Sunday Politics. We have had
:27:24. > :27:30.Worcester woman, Worcester man, is this any different? It is a
:27:31. > :27:43.recognition that or politician -- all politics these days is like
:27:44. > :27:50.this. It enables them to cut them more finally. You think all politics
:27:51. > :27:55.is coalition politics, you think they have to put together these
:27:56. > :28:02.groups of people, not that the Lib Dems will always be in power? No,
:28:03. > :28:08.and if you listen to the coverage these days you might think it is
:28:09. > :28:12.about grumpy old men on the one hand with Guardian readers on the other.
:28:13. > :28:16.It is far more complicated than that, there is a lot of churning
:28:17. > :28:24.going on underneath which is driven by people's value systems. A lot of
:28:25. > :28:28.this has been pioneered in the United States, very sophisticated on
:28:29. > :28:33.their election techniques, and in Britain we are always the first to
:28:34. > :28:38.grab whatever the New Year will is from America. How do you think this
:28:39. > :28:42.will translate to this country? I think it means that if you are
:28:43. > :28:48.target photo you will still get the same of leaflets and people calling,
:28:49. > :28:53.but you will probably have different kinds of conversations because
:28:54. > :28:59.people on the other side, the party campaigners, will think they know
:29:00. > :29:04.more about you. Will I know who you are? If I am a party campaigner,
:29:05. > :29:09.will I know, looking down the street, who fits into which
:29:10. > :29:12.category? You will be able to approximate that with all of the
:29:13. > :29:18.other data that you have gathered through polling, or doing local
:29:19. > :29:24.campaigning, that is the idea to make sense of this vast quantity of
:29:25. > :29:29.data people have about voters. We asked our panel to fill in your
:29:30. > :29:35.survey. Nick is optimistic contentment, 99%. He was 1%
:29:36. > :29:40.cosmopolitan critic, which is how he keeps his job at the Guardian.
:29:41. > :29:47.Polly's job could not be more secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics,
:29:48. > :29:50.and Janan Ganesh, optimistic contentment, which is what you would
:29:51. > :30:07.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:08. > :30:16.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:17. > :30:21.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:22. > :30:27.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:28. > :30:33.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:34. > :30:39.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:40. > :30:43.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:44. > :30:51.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:52. > :30:55.not know these people existed. Unless you know about certain key
:30:56. > :31:01.demographics, you are wasting your time. Is it important in modern
:31:02. > :31:12.campaigning? I think it is useful because it is about attitude. We
:31:13. > :31:17.have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. It does not tell us very much. What
:31:18. > :31:20.people think and feel may be different to their income. You can
:31:21. > :31:25.be quite a high earner and anxious. You can be quite a low earner and
:31:26. > :31:32.feeling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I think this does
:31:33. > :31:37.get something else. In days gone by, particularly in America,
:31:38. > :31:41.overwhelmingly, if you are in the better of segment, you would be
:31:42. > :31:45.Republican and the blue-collar workers and some academics and
:31:46. > :31:50.Liberals voted Democrat. In the last election, the richest 200 counties
:31:51. > :31:54.in America voted Democrat. That is an attitude thing. Income does not
:31:55. > :32:00.tell you how people will vote. There is a huge, working-class base of
:32:01. > :32:04.support for the Republicans. It is unavoidable. Add a time when people
:32:05. > :32:12.no longer identify with ideologies or class blocks, you have to go the
:32:13. > :32:22.temperament and lifestyle and manageable. In America there were
:32:23. > :32:28.128 segments according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:29. > :32:33.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:34. > :32:41.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:42. > :32:48.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:49. > :32:54.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:55. > :32:56.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:57. > :33:30.Miller band. The Coming up, educating Yorkshire.
:33:31. > :33:35.Why this head teacher made famous on TV has some stinging criticism for
:33:36. > :33:40.the school's watchdog. There is a culture of fear building up. I feel
:33:41. > :33:49.the pressure of thinking are they going to knock on the door? And why
:33:50. > :33:55.some of our hospitals are facing huge fines for keeping patients
:33:56. > :34:00.waiting in ambulances outside A departments.
:34:01. > :34:06.They had of the school made famous in programme macro has hit back at
:34:07. > :34:10.claims that the county's schools suffer from a poverty of aspiration.
:34:11. > :34:14.It follows a report by Ofsted which suggests that as a region schools in
:34:15. > :34:20.Yorkshire and the Humber are the worst performing in the country. In
:34:21. > :34:23.a moment, we will be putting Jonny Mitchell's comments to Ofsted's
:34:24. > :34:31.regional director. First, this report.
:34:32. > :34:33.A practical, enthusiastic and enjoyable lesson in business and
:34:34. > :34:36.economics for these teenagers. And taking a look at how it was going,
:34:37. > :34:40.Tristram Hunt, the Shadow Education Secretary. They are used to
:34:41. > :34:46.high`profile visitors and television cameras here. The school is the
:34:47. > :34:51.school near Dewsbury which hit the headlines because of this. I am a
:34:52. > :34:54.new headteacher. My values are very traditional. Led by charismatic head
:34:55. > :34:57.teacher Jonny Mitchell, the staff and students here became the stars
:34:58. > :35:03.of Channel 4's Educating Yorkshire series. It highlighted the
:35:04. > :35:09.challenges faced by schools in some of our less affluent areas. The
:35:10. > :35:12.visit by Labour's education spokesman this week was a chance for
:35:13. > :35:18.Jonny Mitchell to outline what he sees as a major barrier to getting
:35:19. > :35:22.on with the job of teaching. I am not actually all that interested in
:35:23. > :35:24.the pieces of the paper at the end. League tables, Government
:35:25. > :35:28.information and especially the role of the school's inspectorate Ofsted,
:35:29. > :35:35.he says, are not helping. `` government in intervention. There is
:35:36. > :35:38.a culture of fear building up among the teaching profession with the
:35:39. > :35:41.very short notice of an Ofsted inspection. They are coming in and
:35:42. > :35:45.lessons are observed and sometimes a teacher will be able to teach a
:35:46. > :35:47.lesson which on the face of it is very good indeed, maybe even
:35:48. > :35:50.outstanding, yet their outcomes over time would suggest the teaching
:35:51. > :35:57.cannot be any better than good or maybe only requires improvement.
:35:58. > :36:00.When we come to Ofsted, what we need is quality inspectors doing a really
:36:01. > :36:03.detailed understanding of the school, not just relying on previous
:36:04. > :36:15.data, but getting a sense of what the school is about. Ofsted has a
:36:16. > :36:19.role to play. It informs parents about what is going on in schools.
:36:20. > :36:21.What we do not want is a politicised Ofsted. 24 hours after this visit,
:36:22. > :36:24.things started moving. A survey of 900 headteachers conducted by the
:36:25. > :36:27.Association of Schools and College Leaders showed that 65% of them had
:36:28. > :36:30.no confidence in the outcome of Ofsted inspections. Almost
:36:31. > :36:32.simultaneously, the head of Ofsted announced he was looking at hiring
:36:33. > :36:42.more experienced inspectors and having what he called lighter touch
:36:43. > :36:44.inspections. 60 miles away in Hull, these teenagers say Ofsted is
:36:45. > :36:46.putting a cloud over their education, especially with the
:36:47. > :36:56.latest annual report putting Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire at
:36:57. > :37:00.the bottom of the pile. You don't want to be told you can't do
:37:01. > :37:03.something when there is a good chance you could do it. I would like
:37:04. > :37:06.to go to university. I don't which one yet. I would like to study
:37:07. > :37:10.Chinese and business at university. When we are coming out with As and
:37:11. > :37:13.Bs, A*s, people are very shocked. If anything, it makes us more
:37:14. > :37:17.determined to succeed to prove to the rest of the country and everyone
:37:18. > :37:20.else that it is possible for us to get good grades. Their school here
:37:21. > :37:23.in East Hull has bucked the trend. Not just for the naturally bright
:37:24. > :37:28.ambitious students either. One in six used to leave here with no
:37:29. > :37:32.qualifications. There are now hardly any. These are some of the many
:37:33. > :37:35.places we take our young people to help bring the curriculum alive to
:37:36. > :37:37.them and help inspire them. The headteacher says those improvements
:37:38. > :37:42.have been helped by teaching initiatives that Ofsted inspectors
:37:43. > :37:46.do not even measure. What we try and do is make sure that each and every
:37:47. > :37:49.young person here, whilst working hard at the basics, English, maths,
:37:50. > :37:52.science and so on, they are learning that the curriculum is tailored to
:37:53. > :37:59.them as much as possible so they can see the relevance of it. Youngsters
:38:00. > :38:03.in state schools in some of our poorest areas prove success can be
:38:04. > :38:06.achieved. The question is, will the planned changes to the way
:38:07. > :38:14.inspections and measurement of progress are made help or hinder the
:38:15. > :38:21.process? Our guest today on Julian Sturdy, a
:38:22. > :38:25.Conservative MP, Linda Riordan, Labour MP for Halifax. And joining
:38:26. > :38:30.us for our top story, the regional director for Ofsted. If I could
:38:31. > :38:34.start with you, Nick, what did you mean when you said Yorkshire's
:38:35. > :38:40.schools are suffering from a poverty of aspiration? What I meant was head
:38:41. > :38:45.teachers, like the two we have just seen in the piece they have very
:38:46. > :38:49.high aspirations for the students in their schools. It shows through in
:38:50. > :38:52.what those two schools are achieving. What we need is every
:38:53. > :39:01.single school in Yorkshire and Humber to have the same level of
:39:02. > :39:06.aspiration. Julian Sturdy, do you recognise that phrase, poverty of
:39:07. > :39:10.aspiration? It is important we have aspiration flowing from our
:39:11. > :39:15.schools. My patch in York, we have really good schools. It is very
:39:16. > :39:20.important that you allow children from all backgrounds the opportunity
:39:21. > :39:25.to excel and do well at school. That is what we need to achieve. Linda
:39:26. > :39:31.Riordan, do you think teachers in your part of the world have
:39:32. > :39:36.confidence in Ofsted? 80% of our schools are classed as good or
:39:37. > :39:41.outstanding. I do not see that as a poverty of aspirations. The teachers
:39:42. > :39:52.and head teachers are fantastic and they want their pupils to achieve.
:39:53. > :39:58.They have done a really good job. We had the school branded the worst in
:39:59. > :40:01.the country. The council took the school on board and brought the
:40:02. > :40:08.standards up starting at primary school levels and not getting to
:40:09. > :40:13.that situation. I think teachers are doing a fantastic job and they want
:40:14. > :40:18.their pupils to achieve. I am not very keen on that sort of language.
:40:19. > :40:25.Nick, how do you respond to Jonny Mitchell, the programme macro
:40:26. > :40:31.headteacher when he says that your organisation Ofsted is creating a
:40:32. > :40:37.climate of fear a smart `` the educating Yorkshire headteacher. And
:40:38. > :40:41.inspection is a stressful time. But I also think most headteachers and
:40:42. > :40:45.governing bodies and politicians would say that parents deserve a
:40:46. > :40:50.right to know about the quality of the schools they might send their
:40:51. > :40:55.children to. Yes, there is stress. But it is absolutely necessary we
:40:56. > :41:00.hold schools to account. A survey showed 65% of headteachers did not
:41:01. > :41:06.have confidence in Ofsted to make accurate and reliable judgements.
:41:07. > :41:08.How do you respond to that? If you look at satisfaction surveys
:41:09. > :41:14.following Ofsted inspections, at the end of the stressful event,
:41:15. > :41:19.actually, our data shows that most headteachers are very satisfied with
:41:20. > :41:25.the experience of being inspected. Do you think Ofsted as a body is
:41:26. > :41:28.still fit for purpose? Yes. It is very important parents have the
:41:29. > :41:34.information available. So they can make decisions. That is the first
:41:35. > :41:38.point. The second point is when I go round my constituency talking to
:41:39. > :41:47.headteachers, you do find there is the concern over, as has been
:41:48. > :41:52.reported, how Ofsted Carrie at `` carry out their work. When that is
:41:53. > :41:56.the case, are they getting the true picture of what is happening in the
:41:57. > :42:00.school? That is why I do accept that in certain areas there should be a
:42:01. > :42:04.lighter touch approach. Linda Riordan, why do you think so many
:42:05. > :42:10.headteachers do not have confidence in Ofsted? I think there is so much
:42:11. > :42:13.pressure put on them for that amount of time that Ofsted are in the
:42:14. > :42:18.school with very little warning. Teachers are not just educating,
:42:19. > :42:23.they have all sorts to do and they are doing a really good job. The
:42:24. > :42:29.head of Ofsted said on Friday about lighter touch regulation. What does
:42:30. > :42:34.it mean for schools who are not performing well? For schools that
:42:35. > :42:37.are not yet good, it would be inspections very much as they are
:42:38. > :42:43.now. It is important to us that schools not yet good should actually
:42:44. > :42:48.be inspected thoroughly by a highly qualified inspection team which
:42:49. > :42:52.increasingly have practitioners, headteachers, as part of the
:42:53. > :42:57.inspection team. We have more and more headteachers who are part of
:42:58. > :43:00.the inspection process and we want to increase that number. It is
:43:01. > :43:04.really important headteachers have confidence in the system, as has
:43:05. > :43:08.been acknowledged or the other guests. Didn't be so recent show
:43:09. > :43:12.there are so many areas in a school which cannot be measured by the
:43:13. > :43:17.league tables? Getting kids to school on time, wearing the proper
:43:18. > :43:21.uniform, good discipline. Doesn't Jonny Mitchell have a point when he
:43:22. > :43:24.says what Ofsted are portraying is not always a true picture of many
:43:25. > :43:31.schools in poorer areas? Parents want to know what a school can
:43:32. > :43:35.actually do for their child. If they send their child to that school, are
:43:36. > :43:39.they going to get a high quality of education? Are they going to get the
:43:40. > :43:45.qualifications which will enable them to progress further in life?
:43:46. > :43:49.Yes, absolutely, there are aspects of the school we do not measure as
:43:50. > :43:55.Ofsted. That I think we measure the things parents regard as being
:43:56. > :44:06.absolutely vital. Thank you for joining us.
:44:07. > :44:08.We we warned our accident and emergency departments were facing
:44:09. > :44:10.the worst winter crisis in living memory.
:44:11. > :44:13.So, has that proved to be the case? Our health correspondents have been
:44:14. > :44:16.taking a close look at the figures for hospitals at opposite ends of
:44:17. > :44:19.our patch. In a moment, we'll hear from Vicky Johnson in Hull. But
:44:20. > :44:22.first, Jamie Coulson reports from Halifax.
:44:23. > :44:28.What did you do to your face question mark last November is
:44:29. > :44:34.for`year`old cut her head open when she fell. She was taken to A but
:44:35. > :44:42.her mother feels she has to wait too long to be seen. It was devastating
:44:43. > :44:47.to see her like that for so long. NHS targets mean 95% of patients
:44:48. > :44:55.should be seen within four hours. Latest figures show the hospital
:44:56. > :44:57.trust responsible for the A departments in Huddersfield and
:44:58. > :45:00.Halifax has struggled over the winter. Between the 10th of November
:45:01. > :45:08.last year and the 9th of March this year, Calderdale Royal Hospital and
:45:09. > :45:13.Huddersfield Royal infirmary sort 46,000 patients in A 2000 had to
:45:14. > :45:19.wait over four hours. They missed the target on seven out of the 18
:45:20. > :45:23.weeks. 738 patients had to wait between four and 12 hours on a
:45:24. > :45:28.trolley for a bird. These figures have been seized upon by campaigners
:45:29. > :45:33.concerned about a wider shake`up of health services proposed in this
:45:34. > :45:38.part of the world. In one scenario, the A in Halifax could be scaled
:45:39. > :45:42.back. Emergency cases would have to go to Huddersfield. People are
:45:43. > :45:46.having to wait too long. Some people are waiting on trolleys, in the
:45:47. > :45:51.backs of ambulances. We are struggling to cope with two A
:45:52. > :45:59.departments. Imagine if we only had one. The two hospitals are five
:46:00. > :46:04.miles apart. Both currently offer full A departments. But it could
:46:05. > :46:07.change under plans to centralise services on one side. The trust's
:46:08. > :46:13.preferred option would see all emergency and conflict move to
:46:14. > :46:17.Huddersfield. Calderdale would concentrate on planned and routine
:46:18. > :46:24.care. I would rather be here than Huddersfield. It is travelling for
:46:25. > :46:29.people visiting. I can see the point that it will be better. Is that not
:46:30. > :46:33.what everyone wants? You want it where it is convenient. The local
:46:34. > :46:37.NHS said that other options are being considered but the aim is to
:46:38. > :46:43.try and improve services not cut them. We are looking at changing the
:46:44. > :46:46.way services are provided. A is a small part of that. If we get the
:46:47. > :46:52.system right, people will visit hospital less, people will not need
:46:53. > :46:57.to go to the A department. People will have services closer to home.
:46:58. > :47:01.We will make sure it is easy for them to access them. For families
:47:02. > :47:05.relying on hospital services, these developments will be watched keenly.
:47:06. > :47:12.The local NHS stressed no decisions have yet been made.
:47:13. > :47:16.Ambulances delivering patients to the Hull Royal infirmary. Foremost,
:47:17. > :47:22.the turnaround time guidelines. If there are no bays available,
:47:23. > :47:25.patients have to stay in the ambulance. One paramedic told us
:47:26. > :47:33.during busy periods, they are often held up with patients on stretchers
:47:34. > :47:36.for up to an hour. The ambulances are parked outside not doing what
:47:37. > :47:40.they are supposed to be doing. Response times drop. If they cannot
:47:41. > :47:48.that the patients in in time, the hospital gets fined as well. New NHS
:47:49. > :47:53.figures show that more than 870 patients had to wait longer than
:47:54. > :47:57.they should before being transferred into A between December and
:47:58. > :48:01.February. Hospitals face fines of ?200 for every 30 minutes and
:48:02. > :48:09.ambulances kept waiting. In theory, this could mean the hospital trust
:48:10. > :48:13.could be fined ?175,000. Hospital managers have not yet been told
:48:14. > :48:18.whether they are to be fined. We want to spend every penny on
:48:19. > :48:21.improving patient care. We are investing ?7 million to improve the
:48:22. > :48:25.emergency department facilities. If we were fined a huge amount of
:48:26. > :48:29.money, it might threaten investment. The key thing is to work with our
:48:30. > :48:33.partners to deliver the right care for patients and spending money
:48:34. > :48:37.wisely where we need to invest in improvements in the hospital and in
:48:38. > :48:39.the community. We have received a statement from the Yorkshire
:48:40. > :48:45.Ambulance Service same patient handovers can be a challenge during
:48:46. > :48:48.times of high demand. It adds they are working with hospitals to
:48:49. > :48:53.minimise and avoid delays in the future. Meanwhile, doctors insist
:48:54. > :48:58.even when patients are kept waiting in ambulances they are still getting
:48:59. > :49:05.the care they need. Would you say there has been a
:49:06. > :49:08.winter A crisis? No, I would not. What we saw in Hull is worrying but
:49:09. > :49:15.it is not the picture right across Yorkshire. In York, they are meeting
:49:16. > :49:18.the target 98% of the time. We have got other gun, Wakefield,
:49:19. > :49:29.Pontefract, I believe they are hitting 99% of their targets `` we
:49:30. > :49:37.have got Dewsbury. The government put ?650 million into A services
:49:38. > :49:42.for the winter. The important thing was it was not just about new money,
:49:43. > :49:46.it was also about the timing. It came early so it allowed hospitals
:49:47. > :49:51.to plan ahead. There is still an awful lot of trusts in our area not
:49:52. > :49:56.hitting the 95% target to see patients within four hours. Many
:49:57. > :50:02.people watching will say, I checked into A and I was not seen within
:50:03. > :50:07.four hours. It is worrying and needs to be worked on. The hope is the
:50:08. > :50:13.money that has been put in by the government will improve the targets.
:50:14. > :50:18.Linda Riordan, we know you're A department in Halifax is under
:50:19. > :50:22.threat, as we saw there. Where would you find the ?50 million that needs
:50:23. > :50:30.to be saved in order to keep the A open? The most important thing said
:50:31. > :50:38.was that we want services closer to home. That is what they want to give
:50:39. > :50:42.to us. Taking away the A to Huddersfield and Dewsbury hospital
:50:43. > :50:49.has been mentioned, that accident and emergency is closing down. The
:50:50. > :50:54.pressure on Huddersfield, three A into one. People want to find
:50:55. > :51:02.the money to keep the NHS as it is. I think the government actually had
:51:03. > :51:08.their wrist slapped. A `` for saying that the money is rising when it is
:51:09. > :51:14.not. Where would a future Labour government find the money? We have
:51:15. > :51:27.got to find it. The bankers bonuses would be my first point. People want
:51:28. > :51:31.the NHS as it is. We want a `` A close to home. We have got to keep
:51:32. > :51:40.Calderdale. Purpose`built hospital, 2000. Closing A is political
:51:41. > :51:45.suicide for the government. We have got to support the NHS services. The
:51:46. > :51:50.government is doing that. It has put more money into the NHS. ?650
:51:51. > :51:56.million went into winter resilience for this year which was new money
:51:57. > :51:59.and it went in in good time. Whenever you are looking at
:52:00. > :52:03.reconfiguring services, it is always difficult. For me, the key thing is
:52:04. > :52:14.there has got to be proper consultation. I think that Linda
:52:15. > :52:18.Riordan has already said that is not happening and that is a concern.
:52:19. > :52:22.When you take a decision like this, it must not be politicians making
:52:23. > :52:28.those decisions. It has got to be health care professionals. More on
:52:29. > :52:34.the week's political news now. Louise has our round`up in 60
:52:35. > :52:37.seconds. There was a post`budget high amongst
:52:38. > :52:42.commuters between Hull and Selby when electrification of the line was
:52:43. > :52:48.announced. Local MPs want work to begin soon in time for when Hull
:52:49. > :52:50.becomes City of Culture in 2017. But Conservatives faced accusations
:52:51. > :52:53.of patronising southern stereotyping of the North after publishing this
:52:54. > :53:01.message trumpeting the Chancellor's decision to cut the duty on beer and
:53:02. > :53:06.tax on bingo. Hull MP Diana Johnson says Tories need re`educating.
:53:07. > :53:09.Working class culture is not just about beer and bingo. Or for that
:53:10. > :53:13.matter pigeon fancying, wearing a flat cap or having a whippet.
:53:14. > :53:16.An 84`year`old Lincolnshire Conservative MP Sir Peter Tapsell is
:53:17. > :53:21.to stand down at the next general election. His decision will open up
:53:22. > :53:24.a plum vacancy in a safe Tory seat wanting speculation the seat is
:53:25. > :53:26.being lined up for Boris Johnson, especially after David Cameron said
:53:27. > :53:39.he wanted the Mayor of London back in the Commons at the next election.
:53:40. > :53:47.Linda Riordan, what did you make of the budget? We are waiting to see
:53:48. > :53:54.how it will pan out, being able to take all of our pensions. You have
:53:55. > :53:59.got a week pension, have you? I have not. I do not think that will be it.
:54:00. > :54:06.I am picking up on the clips and what Diane said are getting more
:54:07. > :54:10.Eton boys into the Cabinet, it shows when you get leaflets about bingo
:54:11. > :54:15.and beer. That is what they think about us in Halifax. That is not the
:54:16. > :54:20.case. Not everybody plays bingo. There is nothing wrong with that or
:54:21. > :54:27.going for a pint. The beer and bingo advert was a mistake? It was. I
:54:28. > :54:38.would not have done it. About the budget, it was a really good budget.
:54:39. > :54:41.Penny off the beer is good news. I have lots of pubs in my patch will
:54:42. > :54:45.be pleased about that. Also, the brewing industry in Yorkshire will
:54:46. > :54:51.be celebrating. Lots of good news in the budget. Obviously, the personal
:54:52. > :54:57.tax allowance was a big thing as well. You are not just Tory toffs
:54:58. > :55:01.then, no idea about how we operate in the north? I am Yorkshire born
:55:02. > :55:06.and bred and proud of that. I did not agree with what was put in
:55:07. > :55:11.there. The budget was good. Another thing, we must mention this, the
:55:12. > :55:18.Yorkshire Air Ambulance and the support for it, something that all
:55:19. > :55:22.Yorkshire MPs have been campaigning on and we have had a success. The
:55:23. > :55:29.Chancellor has listened. Would you like to see Boris Johnson back in
:55:30. > :55:38.the Commons? He probably will. I think he is coming back and we will
:55:39. > :55:42.see how it plays out and how the Prime Minister... Of course you
:55:43. > :55:46.surround yourself by friends and allies when you are the Prime
:55:47. > :55:53.Minister. But do we want to many Eton boys and girls if we have many
:55:54. > :55:59.girls in the Cabinet? Boris Johnson back rest at I don't know. It is not
:56:00. > :56:05.up to me to decide. It is up to the members of the seat to decide. I am
:56:06. > :56:08.very sad to see the news about Sir Peter Tapsell. He will be missed.
:56:09. > :56:12.Thank you both for your time Julian Sturdy, Linda Riordan. Back to
:56:13. > :56:24.Andrew Neil. decision, she will weigh up the
:56:25. > :56:40.The big news is the popular server is struggling to control all of the
:56:41. > :56:45.people who want to find out where they fit in the political spectrum.
:56:46. > :56:50.It hasn't quite crashed but it is queueing up those people. Who would
:56:51. > :57:00.have thought the Sunday Politics had so many viewers? It has never
:57:01. > :57:02.happened on the X factor. This morning's papers don't make
:57:03. > :57:05.comfortable reading for Labour with two separate polls showing the
:57:06. > :57:08.party's lead over the Tories is down to just one point. And there's been
:57:09. > :57:11.plenty of criticism of Ed Miliband's response to the Budget. Let's take a
:57:12. > :57:14.look. You know you are in trouble when even the Education Secretary
:57:15. > :57:27.calls you and out of touch bunch of elitist. Where is he? He is hiding!
:57:28. > :57:34.I think he has been consigned to the naughty step by the Prime Minister.
:57:35. > :57:38.The naughty step! And we're joined now by shadow chief secretary to the
:57:39. > :57:43.Treasury, Chris Leslie. There was a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:44. > :57:49.Balls to the Autumn Statement, now a widely criticised response by Ed
:57:50. > :57:55.Miliband to the Budget. Does this show you are struggling at the
:57:56. > :58:00.moment? Of course Ed Balls and Ed Miliband don't want to hear the fact
:58:01. > :58:04.that in reality, for most people, life is getting harder and there is
:58:05. > :58:13.the cost of living crisis. Did we get any mention of that in the
:58:14. > :58:18.Budget? Of course we didn't. We were waiting for action on the cost of
:58:19. > :58:23.living and it wasn't forthcoming. Ed Miliband came up with the tactic of
:58:24. > :58:28.responding to the Budget without mentioning anything that was in it.
:58:29. > :58:32.He mentioned the fact the personal tax allowance was a bit of a
:58:33. > :58:39.giveaway but he takes more with the other hand. He is in favour of that,
:58:40. > :58:43.right? Anything we can get but we need a lot more. Let me tell you
:58:44. > :58:51.something else he mentioned, the fact the national debt has risen by
:58:52. > :58:55.a third and George Osborne and David Cameron... They knew that before the
:58:56. > :59:01.Budget. The borrowing figures were announced and Ed Miliband made
:59:02. > :59:05.reference to those. There is not a lot of happiness on Labour
:59:06. > :59:11.backbenchers about this, is there? And indeed not a lot of happiness in
:59:12. > :59:16.the shadow cabinet. There is concern that Ed Miliband is on a journey to
:59:17. > :59:19.remodel world capitalism whilst George Osborne is firing some love
:59:20. > :59:24.bombs at Middle England by talking about freeing up the pensions market
:59:25. > :59:29.and there is real nerves that what Ed Miliband is saying is not going
:59:30. > :59:35.to be in tune with those middle income earners that the Labour Party
:59:36. > :59:42.has got to attract if they are going to win the general election. When
:59:43. > :59:46.Rachel Reeves used the medium of Radio 4 to announce you were broadly
:59:47. > :59:49.in favour of the pension reforms announced by the Chancellor on
:59:50. > :00:00.Friday night, was that a result of a decision taken by the shadow
:00:01. > :00:06.cabinet? Is With annuities, they are a very old-fashioned product. There
:00:07. > :00:13.are some serious questions which need to be addressed. Was that the
:00:14. > :00:18.result of a Shadow Cabinet decision? We have not had a Shadow
:00:19. > :00:22.Cabinet since the budget. We all want to make sure that we understand
:00:23. > :00:28.the point about flexibility. No one is arguing with that. There are some
:00:29. > :00:31.serious concerns. Let me give you a couple of examples. This is
:00:32. > :00:36.something the Chancellor has done, he claims, for reasons of freedom
:00:37. > :00:40.and flexibility. Is it a coincidence he is grabbing quite a lot of tax
:00:41. > :00:48.from pensioners early on to plug a hole which is necessary because the
:00:49. > :00:54.deficit has not gone down? Forgive me for being slightly cynical about
:00:55. > :00:58.motives. For or against it? We need to have safeguards for protection of
:00:59. > :01:02.pensioners. What will it do for the annuity market if most people still
:01:03. > :01:10.want to have a steadying come for a third of their lives? -- steady
:01:11. > :01:19.income. What does Labour have to do to get it show back on the road? The
:01:20. > :01:23.question is, how do people feel? How many people will still not be
:01:24. > :01:26.feeling better by the next election? Wages may be rising slightly but not
:01:27. > :01:31.for a large and significant number of people. They were just looking at
:01:32. > :01:35.the YouGov poll. If you look at the middle to low earners, they are
:01:36. > :01:40.overwhelmingly pro-labour. Can Labour get those people out to vote?
:01:41. > :01:44.They are really hurting. There are plenty of them. The question is
:01:45. > :01:49.whether people are optimistic because they see figures as if they
:01:50. > :01:54.look as if they are on the up or whether they vote according to how
:01:55. > :01:59.they feel, which will still be very far behind. Cost of living has been
:02:00. > :02:04.a major mantra from Labour. That's that this chart shows how things are
:02:05. > :02:10.beginning to change. What this shows is that, sometime this year, after a
:02:11. > :02:14.long time at which average earnings trailed inflation, they now overtake
:02:15. > :02:21.it in the run-up to the election and they stay there for the forecast
:02:22. > :02:27.period. What do you now do if your cost of living mantra is running out
:02:28. > :02:31.of steam? I am not sure that, for most people, they will recognise the
:02:32. > :02:33.sense that suddenly things will be getting better. Particularly the
:02:34. > :02:40.younger generation are really feeling quite down about the
:02:41. > :02:47.pressures they are facing to make ends meet. You can see the lines are
:02:48. > :02:52.exaggerated because the Y axis on the side starts quite high up. It
:02:53. > :02:56.does not start at zero. The other statistic from the OBR is that we
:02:57. > :03:00.will not be getting back to the point where wages are exceeding
:03:01. > :03:08.prices from the pre-banking crisis period until late 2017. There are
:03:09. > :03:11.some really serious pressures that people are under. What they wanted
:03:12. > :03:17.was a budget that would address concerns and, for the vast majority
:03:18. > :03:22.of people, they will have heard the statement by George Osborne and
:03:23. > :03:31.think, how is it really help them now? It did not address it. It is
:03:32. > :03:36.clear that by 2015, average living standards will probably not have
:03:37. > :03:39.returned to where they were in 2010. Average wages will not have
:03:40. > :03:44.done that. On the other hand, the chart shows the sense of direction
:03:45. > :03:49.is moving in the right way. Which one matters more with the
:03:50. > :03:53.electorate? I suspect it is sense of direction. People sense of
:03:54. > :03:58.prosperity does not need to be buoyant. It has to be something
:03:59. > :04:03.worth preserving. We have to fear the all turn. That is what intrigued
:04:04. > :04:08.me this week. People make too much of a fuss about the Parliamentary
:04:09. > :04:13.response by Ed Miliband. People will forgive a bad day at the dispatch
:04:14. > :04:20.box. What they will not forgive is the absence of a macro economic
:04:21. > :04:24.mess. Labour have a very powerful message on living standards and lots
:04:25. > :04:31.of popular, targeted interventions like the energy price freeze. You
:04:32. > :04:36.can imagine they will be sufficiently nervous about that next
:04:37. > :04:44.year. If living standards are not back to where they were, Labour can
:04:45. > :04:52.say, are you better off now than when you were four years ago? The
:04:53. > :05:04.reason why break and -- wallowed waken one that is because Jimmy
:05:05. > :05:12.Carter mucked it up -- Ronald Reagan. Labour have to say, vote for
:05:13. > :05:16.us and you will get 2 million homes. At the moment, the offer is very
:05:17. > :05:20.modest. You need to find the money to do that. People need to
:05:21. > :05:24.understand that housing is at the very heart of the economy, as well
:05:25. > :05:31.as young people and their aspirations. At the moment, Labour
:05:32. > :05:34.'s offer is not spectacular in. If the focus group shows the cost of
:05:35. > :05:40.living crisis have no longer has the attraction it did, what line do you
:05:41. > :05:42.move onto? Yellow McCoy must remind people of the wasted years and the
:05:43. > :05:50.cost of living pressures they have been under. -- we must remind
:05:51. > :05:59.people. We want a recovery which has low growth, low wage. A race to the
:06:00. > :06:05.bottom. They want a recovery that is felt by everyone, shared and felt by
:06:06. > :06:10.all. Now, here's an idea to twist your melon. Mark Berry, better known
:06:11. > :06:12.as Bez, it says here he's a member of something called The Happy
:06:13. > :06:16.Mondays, wants to stand for parliament. He's best known for
:06:17. > :06:20.being in a band, and not doing very much, so he might fit in. Here he is
:06:21. > :06:49.in action. And Bez joins us from our Salford
:06:50. > :06:57.studio. Good to see you. Is this a genuine candidacy or are you
:06:58. > :07:05.twisting my melon? Amazing how time flies when you're having fun! You
:07:06. > :07:10.having fun doing this candidacy? I am doing the job of the politicians
:07:11. > :07:15.and standing up for the people and bringing attention to the horror of
:07:16. > :07:20.fracking, which is a totally unsafe technology. There is no one in
:07:21. > :07:25.mainstream politics who is discussing or saying anything about
:07:26. > :07:30.it. It is an unsafe technology and it has been proven in America. You
:07:31. > :07:40.see the process in America and the people out on the streets. The whole
:07:41. > :07:44.atmosphere has been made toxic. These people are allowing it to
:07:45. > :07:51.happen in the name of profit. This has been a Labour seat you are
:07:52. > :07:56.fighting in Salford since 1945. It is a tough mountain. Supposing you
:07:57. > :08:03.were to win, could you ever see yourself entering a coalition? With
:08:04. > :08:06.a bit of luck I may be able to shame Labour politicians to do the job
:08:07. > :08:10.properly and stand up for the rights of people. They are not and I am
:08:11. > :08:15.having to do that job. All I am doing is causing debate and bringing
:08:16. > :08:20.to attention the horror that is hanging on our doorsteps. It is not
:08:21. > :08:25.only fracking but GM modified foods that they want to bring into this
:08:26. > :08:33.country as well. Owen Paterson is one of the main lobbyists. Lobbying
:08:34. > :08:38.is legalised bribery, by the way. It is run by the bankers. Basically, we
:08:39. > :08:43.have to stop these monsters from getting into our country and turning
:08:44. > :08:49.our land into a toxic waste. That is what I am trying to say. You are
:08:50. > :08:55.raising the debate, as you are doing with us here. We do not really need
:08:56. > :09:00.fracking. You have done that and you have talked about other things as
:09:01. > :09:07.well. In terms of a new integrity, if you were to become an MP, would
:09:08. > :09:11.you claim expenses? If I ever do get in charge, I would completely enter
:09:12. > :09:16.the banking system and there would be expensive, but they would be like
:09:17. > :09:20.bus passes and train passes. You behave like the people and you are
:09:21. > :09:25.in touch with the people, you move with the people and do understand
:09:26. > :09:29.what the people want. You do not live in acre Kuhn of your own making
:09:30. > :09:37.of luxury, wealth and total disregard of everyone else. -- a
:09:38. > :09:40.cocoon. If you did get into the Palace of Westminster and had to
:09:41. > :09:46.mingle with all these people, who would you rather have in night out
:09:47. > :09:55.with - Mr Cameron, Mr Miller band or Mr Clegg? I would be willing to
:09:56. > :10:03.discuss politics with anybody. I would make them realise what they
:10:04. > :10:09.are doing. I am glad too have a debate and with anyone. The people
:10:10. > :10:16.of Salford, quite a lot people people behind me. I have been
:10:17. > :10:24.speaking to Salford councillors. They are going to lend me their
:10:25. > :10:30.support. The people of Salford, and not to forget the people of Eccles,
:10:31. > :10:35.sending you much. We must stop this horror. There is a monster on our
:10:36. > :10:40.doorstep and we must stop it, people. Do not forget to take your
:10:41. > :10:49.maracas on campaign trail. Would you like a pair to shake yourself? You
:10:50. > :10:54.shake your maracas against fracking! Thanks, Bez, goodbye. Thank you for
:10:55. > :11:01.giving me a little platform to express my views. Now if there's one
:11:02. > :11:04.thing that gets us hot under the collar here at the Sunday Politics
:11:05. > :11:07.it's European elections. The only thing we like more than the
:11:08. > :11:12.elections themselves is a TV debate about them. And we're in luck! Take
:11:13. > :11:15.a look at this. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome leader of
:11:16. > :11:23.the Liberal Democrats and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg. Gives
:11:24. > :11:31.the most fantastic welcome to Nigel Farage. I would challenge Nigel
:11:32. > :11:38.Farage to a public, open debate, about whether she we should be out
:11:39. > :11:49.all in of the European Union. I will do it for Nick Clegg. Since 2009, I
:11:50. > :11:55.have taken part in 45% of votes in the European Parliament. Nigel
:11:56. > :12:03.Farage has not tabled a single amendment since July 2009. Mr Clegg
:12:04. > :12:11.has only taken part in 22% of votes in the House of commons. You can
:12:12. > :12:23.watch the debate at 7pm on the 2nd of April over on BBC Two. And for a
:12:24. > :12:26.chance to be part of the studio audience on the night and put your
:12:27. > :12:29.question to the two party leaders, e-mail the question you'd like to
:12:30. > :12:31.ask to europedebate@bbc.co.uk or tweet it using the hashtag
:12:32. > :12:34.#europedebate. And Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will be limbering up
:12:35. > :12:43.this week with their first debate on LBC radio on Wednesday. Who is going
:12:44. > :12:48.to come out the best? I suspect Nigel Farage. It is easy to portray
:12:49. > :12:53.Nick Clegg as morally compromised, who has not asserted himself in
:12:54. > :12:58.government. I do wonder about Nigel Farage, whether he is much better at
:12:59. > :13:03.delivering a popular line and responding to the second question of
:13:04. > :13:07.third question. Nick Clegg will win it hands over fist because he knows
:13:08. > :13:11.this stuff. He is right. The evidence that he can produce about
:13:12. > :13:19.what will happen if we pulled out of Europe will, I think, overwhelm
:13:20. > :13:26.Nigel Farage 's one-liners. They will both be winners because you
:13:27. > :13:30.will have the rare sight of the pro-European saying he likes the
:13:31. > :13:35.European Union. That is unlike Eurosceptics who tie themselves up
:13:36. > :13:49.in knots. 14 Nigel, one for Nick and one for both. There you go. Here is
:13:50. > :13:53.a mess, it is Janen Ganesh. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is
:13:54. > :13:56.on BBC Two at Lunchtime every day this week, I'll be back here next
:13:57. > :13:58.week with Energy Secretary Ed Davey. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the
:13:59. > :14:04.Sunday Politics.