:00:37. > :00:44.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:45. > :00:48.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:49. > :00:52.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:53. > :00:57.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:58. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:05.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:06. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:15.On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire all the big
:01:16. > :01:18.On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, we look at claims
:01:19. > :01:19.that local Government is facing extinction, as town halls have less
:01:20. > :01:26.money and fewer services to run. elections, and the 50th anniversary
:01:27. > :01:36.of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,
:01:37. > :01:46.with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,
:01:47. > :01:49.Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for
:01:50. > :01:53.everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of
:01:54. > :01:58.Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big
:01:59. > :02:01.one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local
:02:02. > :02:06.elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes. But
:02:07. > :02:11.that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from
:02:12. > :02:17.examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is
:02:18. > :02:37.local elections and European Parliament elections.
:02:38. > :02:45.These local results should be known by Friday. In the European
:02:46. > :02:50.elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected
:02:51. > :02:54.across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But
:02:55. > :02:58.the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has
:02:59. > :03:03.closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are
:03:04. > :03:07.in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the
:03:08. > :03:11.outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still
:03:12. > :03:15.wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is
:03:16. > :03:19.difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll
:03:20. > :03:24.which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and
:03:25. > :03:29.another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more
:03:30. > :03:36.slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,
:03:37. > :03:39.but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months
:03:40. > :03:45.ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the
:03:46. > :03:49.Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's
:03:50. > :03:52.share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,
:03:53. > :03:57.and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,
:03:58. > :04:01.whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be
:04:02. > :04:05.Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down
:04:06. > :04:10.from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one
:04:11. > :04:13.year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a
:04:14. > :04:20.significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be
:04:21. > :04:23.worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all
:04:24. > :04:28.have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are
:04:29. > :04:33.saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is
:04:34. > :04:42.Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly
:04:43. > :04:51.resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and
:04:52. > :04:55.incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,
:04:56. > :05:00.but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,
:05:01. > :05:04.to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,
:05:05. > :05:09.Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which
:05:10. > :05:16.makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but
:05:17. > :05:18.whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent
:05:19. > :05:23.event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the
:05:24. > :05:29.Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a
:05:30. > :05:33.national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly
:05:34. > :05:37.historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across
:05:38. > :05:45.Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --
:05:46. > :05:50.populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely
:05:51. > :05:54.ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general
:05:55. > :05:57.election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but
:05:58. > :06:00.they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works
:06:01. > :06:07.fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...
:06:08. > :06:12.We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.
:06:13. > :06:15.She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an
:06:16. > :06:21.earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what
:06:22. > :06:25.does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I
:06:26. > :06:32.think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been
:06:33. > :06:36.around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European
:06:37. > :06:40.elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are
:06:41. > :06:44.looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,
:06:45. > :06:49.getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes
:06:50. > :06:51.on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense
:06:52. > :06:55.policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want
:06:56. > :06:59.to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If
:07:00. > :07:09.we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.
:07:10. > :07:14.You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the
:07:15. > :07:17.stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and
:07:18. > :07:23.members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I
:07:24. > :07:27.would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You
:07:28. > :07:32.could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around
:07:33. > :07:37.for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you
:07:38. > :07:42.had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17
:07:43. > :07:46.Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either
:07:47. > :07:49.arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition
:07:50. > :07:53.we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist,
:07:54. > :07:57.sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of
:07:58. > :08:01.that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I
:08:02. > :08:04.certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who
:08:05. > :08:11.have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even
:08:12. > :08:14.putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions
:08:15. > :08:20.or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the
:08:21. > :08:24.BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any
:08:25. > :08:30.other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something
:08:31. > :08:34.loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.
:08:35. > :08:38.We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of
:08:39. > :08:42.expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,
:08:43. > :08:50.who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a
:08:51. > :08:54.huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the
:08:55. > :09:00.European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television
:09:01. > :09:07.and radio and in the newspapers. We are not a one-man band. Who runs
:09:08. > :09:11.your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he
:09:12. > :09:17.spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of
:09:18. > :09:20.the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have
:09:21. > :09:26.a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?
:09:27. > :09:31.The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the
:09:32. > :09:34.MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government
:09:35. > :09:39.Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your
:09:40. > :09:50.councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your
:09:51. > :09:54.local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe
:09:55. > :09:58.the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting
:09:59. > :10:03.for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on
:10:04. > :10:09.2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive -- a
:10:10. > :10:14.lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.
:10:15. > :10:17.But when it comes to individual, local issues, say, a particular
:10:18. > :10:23.development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will
:10:24. > :10:27.vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the
:10:28. > :10:33.borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out
:10:34. > :10:36.really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians
:10:37. > :10:40.to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of
:10:41. > :10:45.the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a
:10:46. > :10:49.referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then
:10:50. > :10:54.happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first
:10:55. > :11:00.time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am
:11:01. > :11:04.not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come
:11:05. > :11:07.out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But
:11:08. > :11:14.have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But
:11:15. > :11:18.certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world
:11:19. > :11:21.economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be
:11:22. > :11:26.able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is
:11:27. > :11:34.what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would
:11:35. > :11:39.be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,
:11:40. > :11:43.sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and
:11:44. > :11:48.valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that
:11:49. > :11:53.referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people
:11:54. > :11:59.'s... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.
:12:00. > :12:08.70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it
:12:09. > :12:12.would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that
:12:13. > :12:18.we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying
:12:19. > :12:23.to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will
:12:24. > :12:27.negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best
:12:28. > :12:30.for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our
:12:31. > :12:35.country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in
:12:36. > :12:40.next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom
:12:41. > :12:44.flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask
:12:45. > :12:54.questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in
:12:55. > :12:58.next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no
:12:59. > :13:03.good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I
:13:04. > :13:06.think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong
:13:07. > :13:09.with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different
:13:10. > :13:12.from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who
:13:13. > :13:18.wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is
:13:19. > :13:27.watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.
:13:28. > :13:35.Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a
:13:36. > :13:40.counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the
:13:41. > :13:47.campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight
:13:48. > :13:51.o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,
:13:52. > :13:56.how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit
:13:57. > :14:01.into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me
:14:02. > :14:08.luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in
:14:09. > :14:19.Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They
:14:20. > :14:25.have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up
:14:26. > :14:27.on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted
:14:28. > :14:31.of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of
:14:32. > :14:38.the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you
:14:39. > :14:46.had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,
:14:47. > :14:50.God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are
:14:51. > :14:56.heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss
:14:57. > :15:01.William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big
:15:02. > :15:06.questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are
:15:07. > :15:12.you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think
:15:13. > :15:17.something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what
:15:18. > :15:21.people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the
:15:22. > :15:33.flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.
:15:34. > :15:39.The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the
:15:40. > :15:47.Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the
:15:48. > :15:52.EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.
:15:53. > :15:59.This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?
:16:00. > :16:02.And chips are weirdly relevant at our next stop - the Green Party
:16:03. > :16:07.battle bus which is parked in Ashford in Kent. What is special
:16:08. > :16:16.about this vehicle? It runs from chip fat oil so it is more friendly
:16:17. > :16:24.to the environment. But boss was boiling. The next stop is Gillingham
:16:25. > :16:26.to see Labour. Labour have just hired Barack Obama's election guru
:16:27. > :16:34.David Axelrod to help them craft their message. What does David
:16:35. > :16:44.Axelrod know about the people who live on the street? I know the local
:16:45. > :16:48.details but you handle those. Ed Miliband and his party have had to
:16:49. > :16:50.handle a few dodgy opinion polls lately, prompting some leadership
:16:51. > :16:59.speculation from one activist. Who is your favourite Labour politician?
:17:00. > :17:07.Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're flagging. Final stop, Southwark in
:17:08. > :17:15.south London. We are in the right place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem
:17:16. > :17:21.taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning as the party of in. But are they in
:17:22. > :17:28.trouble? Your party president said the party would be wiped out and
:17:29. > :17:35.lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If he did say that, then no, that's not
:17:36. > :17:39.terribly helpful. And let's not forget, every London council is
:17:40. > :17:43.having elections too. I have 40 minutes to get back to the office in
:17:44. > :17:49.Westminster, which calls for something drastic, like this. After
:17:50. > :17:57.212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,
:17:58. > :18:09.12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.
:18:10. > :18:17.Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our
:18:18. > :18:21.studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in
:18:22. > :18:33.Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,
:18:34. > :18:37.looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest
:18:38. > :18:42.group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are
:18:43. > :18:48.recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only
:18:49. > :18:53.party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people
:18:54. > :18:59.over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands
:19:00. > :19:05.synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why
:19:06. > :19:09.should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the
:19:10. > :19:16.reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are
:19:17. > :19:22.stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives
:19:23. > :19:26.are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green
:19:27. > :19:31.belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed
:19:32. > :19:36.the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and
:19:37. > :19:41.saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that
:19:42. > :19:54.many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the
:19:55. > :19:58.polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are
:19:59. > :20:03.looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that
:20:04. > :20:07.we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society
:20:08. > :20:10.works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the
:20:11. > :20:18.limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want
:20:19. > :20:23.all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where
:20:24. > :20:29.would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?
:20:30. > :20:35.Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into
:20:36. > :20:40.a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for
:20:41. > :20:47.demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French
:20:48. > :20:56.nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across
:20:57. > :21:00.Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of
:21:01. > :21:04.German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays
:21:05. > :21:15.within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you
:21:16. > :21:26.have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to
:21:27. > :21:32.do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.
:21:33. > :21:37.At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal
:21:38. > :21:43.for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,
:21:44. > :21:47.way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would
:21:48. > :21:52.be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run
:21:53. > :21:58.Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the
:21:59. > :22:03.local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with
:22:04. > :22:08.factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups
:22:09. > :22:14.against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to
:22:15. > :22:18.bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and
:22:19. > :22:23.Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has
:22:24. > :22:30.become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results
:22:31. > :22:36.going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives
:22:37. > :22:43.in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life
:22:44. > :22:47.is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's
:22:48. > :22:52.election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold
:22:53. > :22:57.up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge
:22:58. > :23:05.progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve
:23:06. > :23:10.Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to
:23:11. > :23:14.change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side
:23:15. > :23:23.of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was
:23:24. > :23:29.in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to
:23:30. > :23:45.Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm
:23:46. > :24:15.joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and
:24:16. > :24:20.Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on
:24:21. > :24:24.the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.
:24:25. > :24:29.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would
:24:30. > :24:37.like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.
:24:38. > :24:40.Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European
:24:41. > :24:45.elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning
:24:46. > :24:52.the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,
:24:53. > :24:57.you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation
:24:58. > :25:02.from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are
:25:03. > :25:07.concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage
:25:08. > :25:11.only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the
:25:12. > :25:16.interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season
:25:17. > :25:23.change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member
:25:24. > :25:27.states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to
:25:28. > :25:33.children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to
:25:34. > :25:39.charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a
:25:40. > :25:43.flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will
:25:44. > :25:53.continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward
:25:54. > :25:58.policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will
:25:59. > :26:05.look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters
:26:06. > :26:10.decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP
:26:11. > :26:16.question is that they get support because they have never been in
:26:17. > :26:22.power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get
:26:23. > :26:30.into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is
:26:31. > :26:35.that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the
:26:36. > :26:44.case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made
:26:45. > :26:51.in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14
:26:52. > :27:00.out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously
:27:01. > :27:06.disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the
:27:07. > :27:10.European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,
:27:11. > :27:14.it will show that people don't really trust your promise about
:27:15. > :27:19.European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.
:27:20. > :27:25.What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal
:27:26. > :27:28.Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European
:27:29. > :27:33.treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European
:27:34. > :27:39.budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted
:27:40. > :27:47.against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying
:27:48. > :27:52.more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout
:27:53. > :27:58.fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same
:27:59. > :28:03.energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British
:28:04. > :28:12.people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a
:28:13. > :28:17.liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against
:28:18. > :28:22.him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost
:28:23. > :28:26.consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,
:28:27. > :28:33.but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the
:28:34. > :28:45.problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom
:28:46. > :28:48.tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work
:28:49. > :28:57.for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.
:28:58. > :29:06.So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be
:29:07. > :29:10.voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David
:29:11. > :29:16.Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is
:29:17. > :29:20.recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have
:29:21. > :29:25.been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British
:29:26. > :29:30.politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit
:29:31. > :29:34.everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this
:29:35. > :29:42.country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and
:29:43. > :29:45.we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours
:29:46. > :29:50.contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse
:29:51. > :30:00.your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It
:30:01. > :30:03.may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the
:30:04. > :30:09.European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people
:30:10. > :30:13.understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on
:30:14. > :30:17.Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In
:30:18. > :30:22.terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my
:30:23. > :30:25.community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.
:30:26. > :30:32.Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in
:30:33. > :30:37.office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour
:30:38. > :30:43.have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.
:30:44. > :30:47.One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that
:30:48. > :30:50.they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a
:30:51. > :30:56.government have delivered more affordable housing in this
:30:57. > :31:01.Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next
:31:02. > :31:11.three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall
:31:12. > :31:17.housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the
:31:18. > :31:20.Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.
:31:21. > :31:28.Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your
:31:29. > :31:33.last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting
:31:34. > :31:39.UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said
:31:40. > :31:44.that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a
:31:45. > :31:47.result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in
:31:48. > :31:52.the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure
:31:53. > :31:56.you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what
:31:57. > :32:00.is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on
:32:01. > :32:05.free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:32:06. > :32:08.the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about
:32:09. > :32:18.change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a
:32:19. > :32:22.referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should
:32:23. > :32:26.get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future
:32:27. > :32:30.lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which
:32:31. > :32:35.wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to
:32:36. > :32:41.the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.
:32:42. > :32:45.What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has
:32:46. > :32:49.been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime
:32:50. > :32:53.Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy
:32:54. > :32:59.prices, more childcare, policies which directly address the problems
:33:00. > :33:02.which people face. I think the public will realise that. UKIP
:33:03. > :33:07.offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used
:33:08. > :33:11.to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one, we
:33:12. > :33:16.have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between
:33:17. > :33:22.Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a
:33:23. > :33:27.referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously
:33:28. > :33:34.want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it
:33:35. > :33:38.would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until
:33:39. > :33:43.there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and
:33:44. > :33:50.then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to
:33:51. > :33:58.leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural
:33:59. > :34:02.partners with the Conservatives, but we do not want to be distracted at
:34:03. > :34:05.the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.
:34:06. > :34:13.Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been
:34:14. > :34:16.the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories
:34:17. > :34:21.want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.
:34:22. > :34:24.We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and
:34:25. > :34:28.many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.
:34:29. > :34:33.Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be
:34:34. > :34:39.willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was
:34:40. > :34:45.not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you
:34:46. > :34:56.agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am
:34:57. > :34:59.going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one
:35:00. > :35:04.of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on
:35:05. > :35:08.substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign
:35:09. > :35:13.for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am
:35:14. > :35:17.confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British
:35:18. > :35:21.people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial
:35:22. > :35:24.repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime
:35:25. > :35:30.Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been
:35:31. > :35:33.in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of
:35:34. > :35:40.hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that
:35:41. > :35:43.is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with
:35:44. > :35:50.complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we
:35:51. > :35:54.will be successful. Hilary Benn, what is the difference between your
:35:55. > :36:00.attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been
:36:01. > :36:05.very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further
:36:06. > :36:09.powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British
:36:10. > :36:14.people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our
:36:15. > :36:20.position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We
:36:21. > :36:25.would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in
:36:26. > :36:27.the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains
:36:28. > :36:35.and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want
:36:36. > :36:41.to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and
:36:42. > :36:48.electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that
:36:49. > :36:52.argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell
:36:53. > :37:00.my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --
:37:01. > :37:03.entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,
:37:04. > :37:07.because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union
:37:08. > :37:13.would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because
:37:14. > :37:24.so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly
:37:25. > :37:29.globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.
:37:30. > :37:32.We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most
:37:33. > :37:36.important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?
:37:37. > :37:41.Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the
:37:42. > :37:45.politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with
:37:46. > :37:48.taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down
:37:49. > :37:51.the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have
:37:52. > :37:56.been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will
:37:57. > :38:00.produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the
:38:01. > :38:03.housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats
:38:04. > :38:14.and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I
:38:15. > :38:17.can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.
:38:18. > :38:23.You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:24. > :38:33.You're watching the Sunday Politics Sunday Politics Scotland.
:38:34. > :38:37.You're watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
:38:38. > :38:39.Coming up today: With elections looming, we look at claims that
:38:40. > :38:48.local Government is facing extinction, as town halls have less
:38:49. > :38:51.money and fewer services to run. We'll be looking at the political
:38:52. > :38:55.battle ground in our part of the world ahead of Thursday's vote. We
:38:56. > :38:59.discuss what pointers it could tell us about the likely outcome of next
:39:00. > :39:03.year's General Election. So let's say hello to our guests today. Keith
:39:04. > :39:08.Wakefield is the Labour leader of Leeds City Council. Robert Light is
:39:09. > :39:12.the Conservative group leader on Kirklees Council. And Jeanette
:39:13. > :39:20.Sunderland is the Liberal Democrat group leader on Bradford Council.
:39:21. > :39:22.Hello to you all. So what is the point of voting in the local
:39:23. > :39:27.elections? Town halls have seen their budgets slashed and services
:39:28. > :39:30.outsourced to private companies. So what's left for councils to run?
:39:31. > :39:40.James Vincent reports on what some claim is a doomsday scenario for
:39:41. > :39:45.local Government. Hands up if you want to strike. Care
:39:46. > :39:50.workers in Doncaster are not happy with a private company looking after
:39:51. > :39:54.elderly people, but giving council services to businesses or volunteers
:39:55. > :39:59.is now a must. Leaked to Sunday Politics is a bit of paper from
:40:00. > :40:06.Sheffield Anhalt. It has a dramatic title. `` Sheffield Town Hall.
:40:07. > :40:10.The graph of doom. These bars show what Sheffield Council has to pay
:40:11. > :40:14.for, looking after children and the elderly plus other running costs. At
:40:15. > :40:19.the moment there is a gap between that and the amount of money it has
:40:20. > :40:25.in total. It can afford to pay for perhaps less essential things, but
:40:26. > :40:30.as we move forward, the amount of money we have is going down and
:40:31. > :40:34.costs are growing. By 2018, Sheffield Council thinks the two
:40:35. > :40:36.will meet, meaning there will be no money left to pay for those sorts of
:40:37. > :40:40.services at all. money left to pay for those sorts
:40:41. > :40:43.Something that will have an effect on the quality of the candidates we
:40:44. > :40:51.are choosing between in this election. The challenges are immense
:40:52. > :40:56.for the politicians. Not every seat in South Yorkshire is being
:40:57. > :41:00.contested now. Why would people want to take a seat on a council to then
:41:01. > :41:06.be responsible for butchering those councils' services? In Doncaster
:41:07. > :41:12.they may have a brand`new theatre funded in better times, but the
:41:13. > :41:17.council's Chief Executive is watching their budgets shrink by
:41:18. > :41:21.half. The whole of the state is shrinking. For local Government the
:41:22. > :41:27.cuts are on a level we haven't seen before. And they are worse in the
:41:28. > :41:30.North than other places. So it is change bid `` beyond anything we
:41:31. > :41:34.have seen. Leisure, the arts and parks have all
:41:35. > :41:39.suffered. They are all things that could be handed to private companies
:41:40. > :41:42.or volunteers. The Friends of Sandall Park group has been looking
:41:43. > :41:48.after their part of Doncaster for eight years. But if the money runs
:41:49. > :41:53.out for council maintenance, even they are not sure they can take
:41:54. > :42:00.over. The Friends of Sandall Park enjoy what we are doing in the park,
:42:01. > :42:10.but as soon as we `` if we suddenly found it felt like work, we would
:42:11. > :42:12.not have the same enthusiasm. We have to have a real honest
:42:13. > :42:18.conversation with people about what councils can and cannot do in the
:42:19. > :42:23.future. No matter where you are, things staying as they are is not an
:42:24. > :42:29.option for anybody. The problem is things staying as they are might be
:42:30. > :42:31.the best case scenario. Local Government is probably
:42:32. > :42:37.finished. We will see outsourcing through private companies, and also
:42:38. > :42:41.a role for the third sector, the voluntary sector. So it will be
:42:42. > :42:44.mixed and meant for the next few years, but the next General Election
:42:45. > :42:49.will determine whether local governments have any future.
:42:50. > :42:53.As the gap narrows and money runs out, whoever controls your local
:42:54. > :43:03.council after the election might not feel like winners.
:43:04. > :43:09.Keith, what is the point in voting in local elections when councils are
:43:10. > :43:12.facing a diminishing power base? Many of us are facing severe cuts,
:43:13. > :43:19.but although we go getting smaller in size, people still expect us to
:43:20. > :43:25.play a leading role in providing the houses, making sure that they are
:43:26. > :43:30.creating `` jobs are created, looking after our elderly and young,
:43:31. > :43:33.so whatever the resources, people still look to local Government to
:43:34. > :43:39.show leadership and compassion in their cities. Robert, town halls in
:43:40. > :43:43.many areas now do not control schools because we have academies.
:43:44. > :43:49.Libraries have been hived off to volunteers. What are you left with?
:43:50. > :43:53.I think the challenge for councils, and I think that is where
:43:54. > :43:56.Conservative councils have the ideas for the future, is to change town
:43:57. > :44:00.halls so councils are different for the future, but they concentrate on
:44:01. > :44:05.providing those central services like adult services and bin
:44:06. > :44:10.collections, but then devolving power down to communities, and that
:44:11. > :44:15.is what we want to do in Kirklees, we want to give power back so that
:44:16. > :44:20.local people have a say over what happens in their communities. People
:44:21. > :44:25.are fed up of central diktat from central Government and big pencils.
:44:26. > :44:33.In the last local elections in Bradford, Jeanette, only one in
:44:34. > :44:38.three voters bothered to take part. It is up to people like me to make
:44:39. > :44:43.sure more people turn out and engage people in the issues around the
:44:44. > :44:47.award. This is very much an opportunity for good quality people
:44:48. > :44:52.to come into local Government. When I first got elected we were deciding
:44:53. > :44:55.on which streets got the bins, which streets got grass cut, now it is
:44:56. > :45:02.about tackling major public health issues, job creation, business rates
:45:03. > :45:04.coming back to councils. This is a good opportunity for local
:45:05. > :45:12.Government, and people who said local Government is finished, it is
:45:13. > :45:17.yet to have its day. In Leeds you have 99 councillors. Free for every
:45:18. > :45:24.ward. All on allowances. Is that I good use of public money? You
:45:25. > :45:28.realise that in those wards there is up to 15 thousand to 20,000 people.
:45:29. > :45:36.You need at least three to take on some of the problems people have, to
:45:37. > :45:40.service those. We are also strategic, in that councillors also
:45:41. > :45:44.run up to ?2 billion budgets. I can assure you, if we are doing what all
:45:45. > :45:49.parties agree with, and evolving more power to make sure that we
:45:50. > :45:55.survive these changes and threats, those councillors need to be more
:45:56. > :45:58.rooted in their community, following through partnerships with health,
:45:59. > :46:03.with the voluntary sector, with the private sector. That is the way
:46:04. > :46:07.local Government is moving. Robert, Eric pickles has said the age of
:46:08. > :46:12.austerity is here to stay. Town halls will have to tighten their
:46:13. > :46:18.boats `` belts. Do you accept that? If you look at the commitments being
:46:19. > :46:22.made by all the parties, it is not to give local Government any more
:46:23. > :46:25.money in the next five years, but as local Government to come over to the
:46:26. > :46:30.challenge and do things better, more effectively. Local Government has
:46:31. > :46:33.been very successful in doing that in the last few years. We have
:46:34. > :46:40.changed a lot of things, but we need to do more. Jeanette, the politics
:46:41. > :46:44.lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University said we are seeing the
:46:45. > :46:48.slow death of local Government. Wang holiday Monday I had 250 people
:46:49. > :46:53.having a picnic protesting in a local park. These were people
:46:54. > :46:58.getting active and having views about what the Council and
:46:59. > :47:01.Government are doing. People actually, that of the stomata has
:47:02. > :47:12.caused people to look around and say I want to get involved. ``
:47:13. > :47:16.austerity. With four more days for the local council elections, Len
:47:17. > :47:19.Tingle has been looking at the political battle for the big
:47:20. > :47:24.metropolitan authorities in Western Yorkshire. He has also been sticking
:47:25. > :47:28.some of the other party candidates. `` West and South Yorkshire.
:47:29. > :47:33.When it comes to the local elections, Labour has been a bit
:47:34. > :47:37.like a bull in a china shop. They have barged aside the Lib Dems and
:47:38. > :47:41.the Tories in most of the councils that are up for election. A look at
:47:42. > :47:46.the electoral map shows what has been happening. These are the four
:47:47. > :47:51.local authorities in South Yorkshire, Barnsley, does ``
:47:52. > :48:02.Barnsley, Doncaster, Sheffield and Rotherham. Labour and the Tories
:48:03. > :48:07.barely have a toehold. West Yorkshire has seen a similar
:48:08. > :48:10.movement. Labour is in full control in Leeds, but the competition will
:48:11. > :48:16.be in the remaining three councils, Labour goes into Bradford just two
:48:17. > :48:21.seats short of a majority. In Kirklees, three seats short. In
:48:22. > :48:23.Calderdale, five short. The other parties are now trying hard to stop
:48:24. > :48:28.them crossing that line. parties are now trying hard to stop
:48:29. > :48:34.Labour, Lib Dems and Tories are facing a big challenge this time
:48:35. > :48:37.around from minor parties. The UK Independence Party won its first
:48:38. > :48:42.ever seen here in Rotherham at a by`election last year. This time
:48:43. > :48:47.around it is putting up 148 candidates across our region. The
:48:48. > :48:50.Greens in those councils of four election already have nine
:48:51. > :48:55.councillors. They are fielding 110 candidates. From the left, the trade
:48:56. > :48:59.union organisation TUSC is fielding 51 candidates.
:49:00. > :49:03.How do the biggest of those minor parties fancy their charges ``
:49:04. > :49:11.chances? Sarah Jane Smalley is standing for
:49:12. > :49:16.the Greens. You are `` you have almost made a
:49:17. > :49:23.breakthrough on several occasions, but you really have only a handful
:49:24. > :49:30.of councillors. `` councils. We have councillors across the region, and I
:49:31. > :49:33.think even though people might have protest voted at first we turned
:49:34. > :49:39.protest votes into positive odds. Once people know what our policies
:49:40. > :49:45.are, they are presently supplies. `` surprised. `` pleasantly surprised.
:49:46. > :49:50.Your record is not much different from the Greens. You have looked as
:49:51. > :49:57.though you are going to make breakthroughs, but you have only had
:49:58. > :50:02.one win right across Yorkshire. We have lots of good policies. We
:50:03. > :50:08.want to bring Britain back to Britain. But in this area, as main
:50:09. > :50:13.opposition, as Labour, so we have to break into their stronghold.
:50:14. > :50:20.Sarah Jane Smalley, some of the Greens propose policies will cost
:50:21. > :50:29.money. Can you afford them, given that local authorities are being
:50:30. > :50:34.squeezed? If you look at `` they have managed to keep their
:50:35. > :50:42.children's centres open and raced GCS even results and had a lot of
:50:43. > :50:46.positive results. They are a local council that has had their Budget
:50:47. > :50:51.cut. It is just about how you go about doing it.
:50:52. > :50:55.Do you have the policies to be able to run a council? I found it
:50:56. > :50:59.difficult to work out what your policies are, your party leader
:51:00. > :51:04.ripped up the manifest of the 2015. Can you run a council's `` the
:51:05. > :51:12.manifesto. I have been elected now barely 12 months. Next Thursday will
:51:13. > :51:16.be the divisive `` will tell us whether I have succeeded, but the
:51:17. > :51:20.word on the street is we are going to get more councillors. We must be
:51:21. > :51:25.doing something right. We do engage with the people, that is one thing
:51:26. > :51:29.we do do. From your point of view, what would
:51:30. > :51:35.be the mark of success in these elections? It is about carrying on
:51:36. > :51:39.making steady gains in the region. I am on the street every day, and I
:51:40. > :51:47.have never ever in the 20 years of being in politics, had the feedback
:51:48. > :51:52.I'm getting now from the people on the street. They have had enough.
:51:53. > :52:01.Labour and the other main parties have totally betrayed their trust.
:52:02. > :52:04.Robert, if Labour may gains on Thursday in those big metropolitan
:52:05. > :52:08.West Yorkshire councils, David Cameron can kiss goodbye to any hope
:52:09. > :52:12.of winning next year's General Election. He will struggle to hold
:52:13. > :52:17.those West Yorkshire margins. Absolutely not. I don't think Labour
:52:18. > :52:19.will make gains because people are saying there is an alternative out
:52:20. > :52:23.there to the doom mongers of the Labour Party. Conservatives have a
:52:24. > :52:27.positive message about how our councils can be run for the better
:52:28. > :52:32.of the people. In terms of linking that the General Election, this
:52:33. > :52:36.Government has done a fantastic job of turning the economy around and we
:52:37. > :52:42.are now seeing the benefits of that. There are now 30 million people in
:52:43. > :52:48.work in this country, record levels. I don't think Keith is convinced. It
:52:49. > :52:53.sounded like something from the headquarters `` the evidence is that
:52:54. > :53:00.they have had a raft deal in the North in the grants and the economy.
:53:01. > :53:05.There is no economic strategy. A lot of Labour councillors are focused on
:53:06. > :53:09.trying to create jobs, introduce apprenticeships, because people are
:53:10. > :53:13.being hit hard. I do a lot of doorknocking on the cost of living.
:53:14. > :53:21.They have seen utility prices going up, the cost of living `` yes, the
:53:22. > :53:24.are more jobs, but we are getting more and more zero hours, low wage,
:53:25. > :53:31.so they are not feeling the benefits of this so`called great economic
:53:32. > :53:35.recovery. Jeanette, are the Lib Dems going to get hammered again because
:53:36. > :53:40.of the policies of your Lib Dem Government? No, I think there is a
:53:41. > :53:51.lot of uncertainty out there now. I became elected when we had 70 Labour
:53:52. > :53:54.councils `` councillors. There was a complacency about it. What I am
:53:55. > :53:57.finding on the doorstep, where Lib Dems have been working with
:53:58. > :54:02.communities and campaigning with communities, that food's coming out
:54:03. > :54:07.for the Lib Dems this time. In other areas, people are challenging. ``
:54:08. > :54:16.that food is coming out. I have never heard of the term macro one
:54:17. > :54:22.people, `` TUSC. When the political parties themselves, I have received
:54:23. > :54:27.a letter from a voter from Labour, and it only talks about national
:54:28. > :54:31.politics. There is nothing about the community this individual is
:54:32. > :54:34.purporting to represent. Some polls are given the
:54:35. > :54:41.Conservatives a small lead over Labour. That is not a huge vote of
:54:42. > :54:47.confidence. All I found this year is that the opinion polls fluctuate.
:54:48. > :54:50.Obviously this week when we are merging local with European, which
:54:51. > :54:57.doesn't give local Government a fair chance, is that you get opinion
:54:58. > :55:01.polls that will change to buy day. I am pretty confident that the Labour
:55:02. > :55:06.vote in the North will grow, I am also confident despite what my two
:55:07. > :55:10.colleagues have said, but we will make gains in those authorities like
:55:11. > :55:17.Radford and Leeds and Kirklees, and I think what the message is ``
:55:18. > :55:21.Bradford. We are still 12 months. A long way to go. We have started to
:55:22. > :55:28.come up with policies that start to resonate with the local electorate,
:55:29. > :55:34.and I'm confident that steady build to lead will come about.
:55:35. > :55:40.Let me mention, Robert, the dispute between Conservatives and Lib Dems
:55:41. > :55:44.over free schools. I run the David Cameron coming to West Yorkshire, he
:55:45. > :55:48.stood alongside you when you are trying to get a free school in
:55:49. > :55:52.Kirklees. Is it something you still believe in? Absolutely, the
:55:53. > :55:57.importance of a diverse provision of schools is crucial for the future.
:55:58. > :56:01.Children need a proper future. They need in indication that will give
:56:02. > :56:10.them the opportunity to excel in all of the talents. `` education. Having
:56:11. > :56:13.had the opportunity to create a diverse range of skills is really
:56:14. > :56:20.important. All parties have played some role in this, we are creating a
:56:21. > :56:24.different range of schools, and we have seen a difference not just in
:56:25. > :56:28.the results but actually in the better rounded education that young
:56:29. > :56:33.people are getting today. Why don't the Lib Dems like free schools? If
:56:34. > :56:37.free schools and academies are the big model and the big success story,
:56:38. > :56:43.just make every school free school or an academy. But we cling on to
:56:44. > :56:46.the state schools and they have taken `` the Government has taken
:56:47. > :56:51.money from state schools and handed it over to academies and free
:56:52. > :56:53.schools. I'm not against a different economy for schools, because what
:56:54. > :56:59.makes a good school is good leadership, and what `` regardless
:57:00. > :57:03.of the governance of the school. This is a debate I'm sure we'll come
:57:04. > :57:06.back to add some stage. But let's get some more of the week's
:57:07. > :57:08.political news now ` Louise Martin has our round`up in 60 seconds.
:57:09. > :57:10.get some more One of Yorkshire's UKIP Euro
:57:11. > :57:13.election candidates, Amjad Bashir, has faced claims of hypocrisy after
:57:14. > :57:15.it emerged seven people were arrested for immigration offences in
:57:16. > :57:26.a raid on his restaurant in Manchester last year. Mr Bashir has
:57:27. > :57:28.denied any wrongdoing. Yorkshire has the second`highest
:57:29. > :57:31.unemployment of all the regions in the UK, at 8.3%, down 10,000
:57:32. > :57:38.compared to the previous quarter of 230,000.
:57:39. > :57:41.And the Labour MP for Great Grimsby, Austin Mitchell, has refused to
:57:42. > :57:48.apologise for comparing a US pharmaceutical company to a rapist,
:57:49. > :57:51.over its takeover of a UK rival. The minister for Women, Nicky Morgan,
:57:52. > :57:55.has described the tweet as deeply offensive, and called for the Labour
:57:56. > :57:59.leader Ed Miliband to take action. Ed Miliband has to take control and
:58:00. > :58:02.make Austin Mitchell apologise. One of the definitions of "rape" in the
:58:03. > :58:05.Oxford English Dictionary is "to plunder", and that I fear is what is
:58:06. > :58:20.going to happen to AstraZeneca at the hands of Pfizer.
:58:21. > :58:23.Keith, unemployment is down in Yorkshire. Is it difficult for
:58:24. > :58:32.Labour, campaigning against the back drop of good economic news? I am a
:58:33. > :58:37.bit of an anorak on the economy, and a lot of that growth is in London
:58:38. > :58:43.and the South East. We are turning around slowly in West Yorkshire, and
:58:44. > :58:46.there is a lot of work to do with the authorities working together.
:58:47. > :58:51.But what has happened is there is a lot of new part`time jobs, low`wage
:58:52. > :59:00.jobs, and zero our jobs, and what we really need are quality jobs to give
:59:01. > :59:04.people a proper career and a proper job and proper future. And sadly a
:59:05. > :59:10.lot of young people are not really confident that is what they are
:59:11. > :59:14.seeing are witnessing. Robert, unemployment in Yorkshire and the
:59:15. > :59:28.Humber region is 8.3%. Are we seeing growth happening in `` faster than?
:59:29. > :59:31.We have to grow on similar levels to the south`east London, and that is
:59:32. > :59:36.what the importance of what the Government has been doing, rating
:59:37. > :59:41.combined authorities to drive the economy in local authority areas,
:59:42. > :59:44.putting investment into the North and making sure that the right
:59:45. > :59:49.economic climate is therefore growth. What we have seen is that
:59:50. > :59:55.the economy now has been something that has been growing steadily, but
:59:56. > :59:59.it is most starting to move even faster than anywhere else in Europe.
:00:00. > :00:04.But will make a dent `` big difference to everybody. Now that
:00:05. > :00:08.the indicators are taking over `` turning over in a positive form, we
:00:09. > :00:15.are seeing the benefits even in Yorkshire. Jeanette, what did you
:00:16. > :00:20.think of Austin Mitchell's comments? He could have used the word plunder.
:00:21. > :00:24.I have worked for an American corporation that was taken over, and
:00:25. > :00:34.the word could be plunder. Rape is an emotive word, and it is `` he
:00:35. > :00:40.chose the wrong word. Was this an embarrassment to add Miliband? It
:00:41. > :00:46.just shows you have two be careful when you use social media that you
:00:47. > :00:52.should think. It is `` Jeanette is right, it is the wrong metaphor, but
:00:53. > :00:55.it is certainly an issue that we are very concerned about, the way that
:00:56. > :01:01.Pfizer are being allowed to come in and take over some of our research
:01:02. > :01:05.and development. I am pretty sure the conversation will lead to some
:01:06. > :01:08.amendment to that statement. But whether Conservatives right to try
:01:09. > :01:16.and make political capital out of it? He shouldn't have said it. It
:01:17. > :01:19.was a totally inappropriate comment. Everybody sells close to the wind
:01:20. > :01:23.occasionally, but this is an offensive statement. Nicky Morgan
:01:24. > :01:24.was absolutely right. Thank you, Keith Wakefield, Robert
:01:25. > :01:41.Light and Jeanette Sunderland. Welcome back. Politicians always
:01:42. > :01:46.insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own
:01:47. > :01:52.parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take
:01:53. > :01:57.them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer look. First up, how the
:01:58. > :02:02.votes might fall for the European Parliament. Back in January, Labour
:02:03. > :02:08.looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.
:02:09. > :02:12.According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into
:02:13. > :02:18.place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar
:02:19. > :02:34.picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by
:02:35. > :02:38.the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a
:02:39. > :02:43.long time. It keeps us in a job! We are joined now by the managing
:02:44. > :02:48.director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the
:02:49. > :02:51.polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to
:02:52. > :02:57.do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are
:02:58. > :03:01.going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high
:03:02. > :03:07.turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply
:03:08. > :03:11.not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on
:03:12. > :03:14.those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really
:03:15. > :03:21.benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,
:03:22. > :03:32.with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives
:03:33. > :03:35.them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are
:03:36. > :03:38.either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?
:03:39. > :03:45.Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.
:03:46. > :03:52.Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on
:03:53. > :04:03.Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What
:04:04. > :04:12.does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it
:04:13. > :04:18.change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,
:04:19. > :04:23.how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.
:04:24. > :04:28.Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and
:04:29. > :04:30.more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming
:04:31. > :04:39.fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does
:04:40. > :04:45.the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether
:04:46. > :04:49.UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote
:04:50. > :04:52.share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did
:04:53. > :04:55.vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming
:04:56. > :05:02.from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is
:05:03. > :05:05.that ultimately, every single establishment party should be
:05:06. > :05:09.worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really
:05:10. > :05:13.do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on
:05:14. > :05:19.their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there
:05:20. > :05:25.is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's
:05:26. > :05:30.right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that
:05:31. > :05:34.they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like
:05:35. > :05:38.immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political
:05:39. > :05:42.parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest
:05:43. > :05:51.that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be
:05:52. > :05:57.right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I
:05:58. > :06:01.would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this
:06:02. > :06:04.one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because
:06:05. > :06:08.of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder
:06:09. > :06:14.whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of
:06:15. > :06:18.Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about
:06:19. > :06:23.voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely
:06:24. > :06:27.to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We
:06:28. > :06:35.underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I
:06:36. > :06:40.think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other
:06:41. > :06:43.standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in
:06:44. > :06:49.Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you
:06:50. > :06:54.would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,
:06:55. > :06:59.then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on
:07:00. > :07:04.Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel
:07:05. > :07:09.Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted
:07:10. > :07:14.to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you
:07:15. > :07:18.have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.
:07:19. > :07:23.The really big question which we want to take out of these elections
:07:24. > :07:27.is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the
:07:28. > :07:31.Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of
:07:32. > :07:39.them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel
:07:40. > :07:42.Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to
:07:43. > :07:47.vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem
:07:48. > :07:51.for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many
:07:52. > :07:56.Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital
:07:57. > :08:01.home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,
:08:02. > :08:05.and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local
:08:06. > :08:11.election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not
:08:12. > :08:16.know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote
:08:17. > :08:19.in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in
:08:20. > :08:24.exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,
:08:25. > :08:28.I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in
:08:29. > :08:32.the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is
:08:33. > :08:39.crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well
:08:40. > :08:43.UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is
:08:44. > :08:48.about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell
:08:49. > :08:54.yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will
:08:55. > :09:06.have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the
:09:07. > :09:12.screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could
:09:13. > :09:17.be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the
:09:18. > :09:22.mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And
:09:23. > :09:26.there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in
:09:27. > :09:30.the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There
:09:31. > :09:37.are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an
:09:38. > :09:45.honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If
:09:46. > :09:50.Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is
:09:51. > :09:54.nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't
:09:55. > :10:03.there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could
:10:04. > :10:08.happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be
:10:09. > :10:11.replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have
:10:12. > :10:16.to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David
:10:17. > :10:20.Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the
:10:21. > :10:25.right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is
:10:26. > :10:31.quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find
:10:32. > :10:35.the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories
:10:36. > :10:38.want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are
:10:39. > :10:44.right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big
:10:45. > :10:48.thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris
:10:49. > :10:53.Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the
:10:54. > :11:01.chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But
:11:02. > :11:03.where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called
:11:04. > :11:07.Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.
:11:08. > :11:12.And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not
:11:13. > :11:17.lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And
:11:18. > :11:20.some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,
:11:21. > :11:24.Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression
:11:25. > :11:30.that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed
:11:31. > :11:33.Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this
:11:34. > :11:37.rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although
:11:38. > :11:44.that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in
:11:45. > :11:48.the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the
:11:49. > :11:52.economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on
:11:53. > :11:58.your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference
:11:59. > :12:02.between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was
:12:03. > :12:07.elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.
:12:08. > :12:11.The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power
:12:12. > :12:14.when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.
:12:15. > :12:19.Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -
:12:20. > :12:25.Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David
:12:26. > :12:31.Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that
:12:32. > :12:37.matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like
:12:38. > :12:42.Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who
:12:43. > :12:45.you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,
:12:46. > :12:50.the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not
:12:51. > :12:57.changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.
:12:58. > :13:02.Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing
:13:03. > :13:07.about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to
:13:08. > :13:12.use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you
:13:13. > :13:16.all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election
:13:17. > :13:20.coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of
:13:21. > :13:23.course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily
:13:24. > :13:28.Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next
:13:29. > :13:31.Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it
:13:32. > :14:08.is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.
:14:09. > :14:14.The consultation on closure is supposed to last for 45 days.