:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:54.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:55. > :01:00.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:01. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:09.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.
:01:10. > :01:12.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster And later on the Sunday Politics:
:01:13. > :01:14.Why some experts believe UKIP is poised to take Westminster seats in
:01:15. > :01:18.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire at next year's general election.
:01:19. > :01:22.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.
:01:23. > :01:30.More analysis in just over half an hour.
:01:31. > :01:39.Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --
:01:40. > :01:43.bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The
:01:44. > :01:48.Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of
:01:49. > :01:52.the losses in previous years, the local government base has been
:01:53. > :01:55.whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European
:01:56. > :01:58.Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are
:01:59. > :02:04.announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats
:02:05. > :02:08.have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West
:02:09. > :02:15.Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked
:02:16. > :02:20.incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is
:02:21. > :02:27.perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you
:02:28. > :02:33.trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core
:02:34. > :02:36.values of our party. This is how the party president
:02:37. > :02:44.responded. At this time, it would be foolish
:02:45. > :02:48.for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us
:02:49. > :02:52.from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,
:02:53. > :02:58.we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The
:02:59. > :03:03.major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike
:03:04. > :03:13.the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.
:03:14. > :03:20.Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different
:03:21. > :03:24.people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own
:03:25. > :03:28.activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at
:03:29. > :03:33.holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some
:03:34. > :03:36.people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should
:03:37. > :03:41.stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible
:03:42. > :03:46.Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my
:03:47. > :03:52.conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to
:03:53. > :04:00.my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open
:04:01. > :04:06.mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my
:04:07. > :04:10.mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can
:04:11. > :04:16.assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going
:04:17. > :04:22.to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must
:04:23. > :04:26.have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your
:04:27. > :04:31.members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up
:04:32. > :04:35.using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not
:04:36. > :04:40.allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get
:04:41. > :04:45.constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.
:04:46. > :04:50.I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also
:04:51. > :04:55.concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how
:04:56. > :05:02.parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of
:05:03. > :05:06.school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for
:05:07. > :05:11.those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch
:05:12. > :05:16.pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want
:05:17. > :05:20.a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that
:05:21. > :05:25.say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are
:05:26. > :05:30.issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with
:05:31. > :05:36.what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we
:05:37. > :05:42.should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less
:05:43. > :05:48.control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what
:05:49. > :05:51.UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,
:05:52. > :05:58.which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.
:05:59. > :06:02.There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry
:06:03. > :06:08.about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.
:06:09. > :06:12.You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg
:06:13. > :06:18.to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am
:06:19. > :06:23.more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right
:06:24. > :06:27.things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the
:06:28. > :06:32.country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student
:06:33. > :06:38.finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which
:06:39. > :06:40.was to get a better system, more students are going to university,
:06:41. > :06:46.and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.
:06:47. > :06:51.But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It
:06:52. > :06:56.depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,
:06:57. > :07:03.I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing
:07:04. > :07:09.to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost
:07:10. > :07:15.300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable
:07:16. > :07:18.and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to
:07:19. > :07:25.we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,
:07:26. > :07:31.and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking
:07:32. > :07:34.away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor
:07:35. > :07:39.is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do
:07:40. > :07:44.they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is
:07:45. > :07:49.reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had
:07:50. > :07:53.towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.
:07:54. > :08:00.And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.
:08:01. > :08:05.Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has
:08:06. > :08:09.transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had
:08:10. > :08:12.it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest
:08:13. > :08:18.party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it
:08:19. > :08:23.all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would
:08:24. > :08:28.look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are
:08:29. > :08:34.seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a
:08:35. > :08:37.Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have
:08:38. > :08:42.never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they
:08:43. > :08:50.are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?
:08:51. > :08:54.-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a
:08:55. > :09:03.business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is
:09:04. > :09:08.Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his
:09:09. > :09:11.best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person
:09:12. > :09:20.who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on
:09:21. > :09:23.this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of
:09:24. > :09:30.government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no
:09:31. > :09:35.overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.
:09:36. > :09:40.They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour
:09:41. > :09:46.Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and
:09:47. > :09:53.sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am
:09:54. > :09:56.every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was
:09:57. > :10:05.like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not
:10:06. > :10:10.provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug
:10:11. > :10:18.and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the
:10:19. > :10:22.next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are
:10:23. > :10:26.finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the
:10:27. > :10:30.show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could
:10:31. > :10:33.not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves
:10:34. > :10:39.to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work
:10:40. > :10:48.out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.
:10:49. > :10:55.Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in
:10:56. > :10:58.charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,
:10:59. > :11:03.working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the
:11:04. > :11:10.results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of
:11:11. > :11:15.activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.
:11:16. > :11:19.What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital
:11:20. > :11:23.dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of
:11:24. > :11:26.accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of
:11:27. > :11:30.the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are
:11:31. > :11:36.coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined
:11:37. > :11:43.David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election
:11:44. > :11:47.centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things
:11:48. > :11:52.have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will
:11:53. > :11:56.see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,
:11:57. > :12:01.and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old
:12:02. > :12:05.messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper
:12:06. > :12:09.exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.
:12:10. > :12:12.In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get
:12:13. > :12:19.in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a
:12:20. > :12:25.rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but
:12:26. > :12:30.they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel
:12:31. > :12:34.Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best
:12:35. > :12:39.form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP
:12:40. > :12:44.and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious
:12:45. > :12:50.proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on
:12:51. > :12:56.board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but
:12:57. > :12:59.they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success
:13:00. > :13:03.story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at
:13:04. > :13:09.those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you
:13:10. > :13:12.shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,
:13:13. > :13:19.that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general
:13:20. > :13:23.election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,
:13:24. > :13:29.on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not
:13:30. > :13:36.to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has
:13:37. > :13:40.been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will
:13:41. > :13:44.still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the
:13:45. > :13:48.second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it
:13:49. > :13:53.is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have
:13:54. > :13:59.taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the
:14:00. > :14:03.next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under
:14:04. > :14:09.the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in
:14:10. > :14:12.government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single
:14:13. > :14:17.Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,
:14:18. > :14:33.who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?
:14:34. > :14:42.Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not
:14:43. > :14:47.enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around
:14:48. > :14:53.Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council
:14:54. > :15:02.wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked
:15:03. > :15:07.on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead
:15:08. > :15:16.and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to
:15:17. > :15:21.Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national
:15:22. > :15:27.share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,
:15:28. > :15:33.only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in
:15:34. > :15:36.2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about
:15:37. > :15:46.what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken
:15:47. > :15:51.away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You
:15:52. > :15:57.are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst
:15:58. > :16:02.defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters
:16:03. > :16:07.is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the
:16:08. > :16:11.presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the
:16:12. > :16:15.local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true
:16:16. > :16:19.that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because
:16:20. > :16:27.you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest
:16:28. > :16:31.of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because
:16:32. > :16:36.London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the
:16:37. > :16:40.warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting
:16:41. > :16:45.up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down
:16:46. > :16:53.the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was
:16:54. > :17:07.particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear
:17:08. > :17:12.before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote
:17:13. > :17:17.for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said
:17:18. > :17:21.London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest
:17:22. > :17:26.of the country. One of the things that is different from London as
:17:27. > :17:31.opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few
:17:32. > :17:37.thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go
:17:38. > :17:42.and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had
:17:43. > :17:47.to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse
:17:48. > :17:52.voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live
:17:53. > :17:58.there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass
:17:59. > :18:08.uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in
:18:09. > :18:12.next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't
:18:13. > :18:20.end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.
:18:21. > :18:26.What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral
:18:27. > :18:32.superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do
:18:33. > :18:36.not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is
:18:37. > :18:41.getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem
:18:42. > :18:49.according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote
:18:50. > :18:55.is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband
:18:56. > :19:03.have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very
:19:04. > :19:14.well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned
:19:15. > :19:18.some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation
:19:19. > :19:22.is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims
:19:23. > :19:31.there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own
:19:32. > :19:35.cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't
:19:36. > :19:47.know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could
:19:48. > :19:51.have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking
:19:52. > :20:03.better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are
:20:04. > :20:06.all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may
:20:07. > :20:12.be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their
:20:13. > :20:16.children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you
:20:17. > :20:19.ask people about their future and their children's future and
:20:20. > :20:25.prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you
:20:26. > :20:32.in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP
:20:33. > :20:38.and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be
:20:39. > :20:43.with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you
:20:44. > :20:46.put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with
:20:47. > :20:51.the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they
:20:52. > :20:55.are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are
:20:56. > :21:00.going to back to the three main parties in general election. It
:21:01. > :21:08.would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have
:21:09. > :21:18.said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for
:21:19. > :21:25.granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our
:21:26. > :21:32.strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal
:21:33. > :21:37.with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to
:21:38. > :21:43.burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win
:21:44. > :21:48.Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being
:21:49. > :21:56.the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and
:21:57. > :22:05.end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to
:22:06. > :22:12.go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't
:22:13. > :22:15.vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we
:22:16. > :22:23.need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great
:22:24. > :22:30.crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have
:22:31. > :22:39.you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It
:22:40. > :22:45.is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set
:22:46. > :22:49.for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,
:22:50. > :22:55.an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have
:22:56. > :22:59.an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their
:23:00. > :23:10.rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,
:23:11. > :23:15.hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a
:23:16. > :23:24.member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were
:23:25. > :23:29.you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important
:23:30. > :23:39.interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on
:23:40. > :23:45.there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.
:23:46. > :23:50.So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,
:23:51. > :23:54.because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that
:23:55. > :23:59.interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and
:24:00. > :24:10.I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy
:24:11. > :24:19.with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our
:24:20. > :24:24.boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time
:24:25. > :24:29.tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just
:24:30. > :24:35.count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my
:24:36. > :24:38.party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing
:24:39. > :24:43.country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able
:24:44. > :24:48.to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of
:24:49. > :24:56.overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former
:24:57. > :25:01.deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000
:25:02. > :25:05.voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that
:25:06. > :25:10.will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26
:25:11. > :25:21.constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would
:25:22. > :25:27.support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of
:25:28. > :25:36.6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That
:25:37. > :25:44.implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in
:25:45. > :25:52.second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.
:25:53. > :25:57.Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP
:25:58. > :26:01.supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched
:26:02. > :26:05.from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
:26:06. > :26:12.The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft
:26:13. > :26:17.Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal
:26:18. > :26:21.constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an
:26:22. > :26:29.election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went
:26:30. > :26:34.through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a
:26:35. > :26:40.number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is
:26:41. > :26:44.Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a
:26:45. > :26:48.snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be
:26:49. > :26:53.improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are
:26:54. > :26:57.fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead
:26:58. > :27:06.in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The
:27:07. > :27:09.Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking
:27:10. > :27:14.dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a
:27:15. > :27:23.no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.
:27:24. > :27:29.Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the
:27:30. > :27:33.largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are
:27:34. > :27:40.smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a
:27:41. > :27:47.single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors
:27:48. > :27:52.in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any
:27:53. > :27:57.of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England
:27:58. > :28:01.than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did
:28:02. > :28:06.vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many
:28:07. > :28:11.of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will
:28:12. > :28:16.bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,
:28:17. > :28:22.but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the
:28:23. > :28:27.Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the
:28:28. > :28:32.electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I
:28:33. > :28:37.believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I
:28:38. > :28:41.believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity
:28:42. > :28:45.into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election
:28:46. > :28:51.results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general
:28:52. > :28:57.election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that
:28:58. > :29:05.Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I
:29:06. > :29:11.am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the
:29:12. > :29:14.results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national
:29:15. > :29:19.election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from
:29:20. > :29:24.now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we
:29:25. > :29:29.are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic
:29:30. > :29:34.plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel
:29:35. > :29:39.secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.
:29:40. > :29:43.Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues
:29:44. > :29:51.that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep
:29:52. > :29:57.your promises. We have reduced immigration and the
:29:58. > :30:04.amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a
:30:05. > :30:09.couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to
:30:10. > :30:17.under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have
:30:18. > :30:23.broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU
:30:24. > :30:27.countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming
:30:28. > :30:34.here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help
:30:35. > :30:37.fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here
:30:38. > :30:44.to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our
:30:45. > :30:51.intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream
:30:52. > :30:56.politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you
:30:57. > :31:00.be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,
:31:01. > :31:09.correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit
:31:10. > :31:14.your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards
:31:15. > :31:19.the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of
:31:20. > :31:26.under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.
:31:27. > :31:31.But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote
:31:32. > :31:37.UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a
:31:38. > :31:42.referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but
:31:43. > :31:47.still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted
:31:48. > :31:54.for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about
:31:55. > :32:00.the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the
:32:01. > :32:05.political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address
:32:06. > :32:12.them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a
:32:13. > :32:18.treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely
:32:19. > :32:25.to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it
:32:26. > :32:32.will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a
:32:33. > :32:37.general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will
:32:38. > :32:43.run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust
:32:44. > :32:51.the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to
:32:52. > :32:53.2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a
:32:54. > :33:00.better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in
:33:01. > :33:06.a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about
:33:07. > :33:13.Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I
:33:14. > :33:18.do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see
:33:19. > :33:26.Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that
:33:27. > :33:30.is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way
:33:31. > :33:35.that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a
:33:36. > :33:43.majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect
:33:44. > :33:49.better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they
:33:50. > :33:52.have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national
:33:53. > :33:58.government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are
:33:59. > :34:03.voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want
:34:04. > :34:10.to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to
:34:11. > :34:16.see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your
:34:17. > :34:20.party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,
:34:21. > :34:28.like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015
:34:29. > :34:34.to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%
:34:35. > :34:43.behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a
:34:44. > :34:49.year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly
:34:50. > :34:54.deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.
:34:55. > :35:00.We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am
:35:01. > :35:04.a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be
:35:05. > :35:10.helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good
:35:11. > :35:14.friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best
:35:15. > :35:21.things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,
:35:22. > :35:27.you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a
:35:28. > :35:34.pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a
:35:35. > :35:39.market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should
:35:40. > :35:50.not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no
:35:51. > :35:55.pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say
:35:56. > :36:01.goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:36:02. > :36:04.Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election
:36:05. > :36:17.Hello, you're watching the Sunday coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:18. > :36:18.Hello, you're watching the Sunday Politics from Yorkshire and
:36:19. > :36:24.Lincolnshire. Coming up today: We'll find out why
:36:25. > :36:26.some experts believe UKIP is poised to take Westminster seats in
:36:27. > :36:29.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire at next year's general election. But the
:36:30. > :36:35.other main parties say they're aiming to stop the Farage bandwagon
:36:36. > :36:38.in its tracks. Joining us live in the studio today
:36:39. > :36:40.are the Conservative MP for Calder Valley, Craig Whittaker; Sarah
:36:41. > :36:43.Champion the Labour MP for Rotherham and Amjad Bashir, one of UKIP's
:36:44. > :36:56.candidates in the European elections. He will find out tonight
:36:57. > :37:01.but he has been elected as an MEP for the Yorkshire Ambulance and
:37:02. > :37:12.region. `` Yorkshire and the region. ``
:37:13. > :37:16.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire region. The fruitcakes have come home! Not
:37:17. > :37:18.my words, the words of one newly`elected UKIP councillor
:37:19. > :37:21.following the party's success in the local elections. But despite losing
:37:22. > :37:23.a number of seats to UKIP, Labour remains the dominant political force
:37:24. > :37:26.in Yorkshire and parts of Lincolnshire. With a round`up of the
:37:27. > :37:29.main headlines, here's Len Tingle. Hip hip, hooray! The new kids on the
:37:30. > :37:33.block in Grimsby and Cleethorpes ` seven extra UKIP councillors to add
:37:34. > :37:36.to the one they already had on the local North East Lincolnshire
:37:37. > :37:39.Council. I think today's result is a fantastic accumulation over the last
:37:40. > :37:42.ten years when we have worked for this. We are now a party that they
:37:43. > :37:45.cannot... The fruitcakes have come home! Eight councillors is not
:37:46. > :37:48.enough for UKIP to take control of the 42`seat North East Lincolnshire
:37:49. > :37:51.Council, but that damaged the Labour group because four of them had
:37:52. > :37:54.previously been theirs, down to 21, meaning Labour no longer has a
:37:55. > :37:57.guaranteed majority here. UKIP, I think, will be a temporary
:37:58. > :38:01.phenomenon which will split and argue and divide on the council and
:38:02. > :38:04.possibly even in Europe. The interesting thing about this
:38:05. > :38:06.election is the fact that the electorate are saying to both
:38:07. > :38:13.parties, "A plague on both your houses." Well, for people like me,
:38:14. > :38:16.who have long been Eurosceptics even before the word was invented, I
:38:17. > :38:19.think, it confirms our view that people are very disconnected from
:38:20. > :38:22.the whole process, particularly the fact that Europe is seen as that
:38:23. > :38:24.distant organisation going against what British people and in some
:38:25. > :38:39.cases, what the British Government want. The UK Independence Party,
:38:40. > :38:43.1,567 votes. It was a similar story in an even more traditional Labour
:38:44. > :38:47.heartland over in South Yorkshire. Labour have been in power in
:38:48. > :38:50.Rotherham for 80 years and it still is, but now it has to cope with ten
:38:51. > :38:57.UKIP councillors and amongst the scalps UKIP claimed was the Deputy
:38:58. > :39:00.Leader. They took votes right across the board, they took them from us,
:39:01. > :39:03.they took them from the Tories and they took seats from the Tories as
:39:04. > :39:07.well, the Lib Dem vote collapsed and, of course, they took votes also
:39:08. > :39:10.from people who haven't voted for a while and so I think this is a
:39:11. > :39:17.challenge to all of us, mainstream parties and mainstream politics and
:39:18. > :39:20.really it is a protest. CHEERING. Labour did have its own election
:39:21. > :39:23.celebrations, this was Bradford, the last big Yorkshire city where the
:39:24. > :39:27.party did not have a majority going into these elections ` it does now,
:39:28. > :39:31.but only just. It took the extra two seats it needed for a slim majority
:39:32. > :39:36.of just one. But Labour did see off another opponent in Bradford: George
:39:37. > :39:39.Galloway's Respect Party was crushed, not a single one of its ten
:39:40. > :39:41.candidates came even close to winning. Victory was especially
:39:42. > :39:45.sweet for Deputy Leader Imran Hussain. In 2011 he was the Labour
:39:46. > :39:48.candidate at the parliamentary by`election trounced by George
:39:49. > :39:52.Galloway. This week he retained his seat with a record majority. The
:39:53. > :39:55.issue is the same, you come into town, make a load of empty promises
:39:56. > :40:01.and then don't deliver on them. Well, what do you expect? People are
:40:02. > :40:03.going to see through that and I think the voters and electors in
:40:04. > :40:08.Bradford West have seen through that. George made a lot of promises
:40:09. > :40:12.and he has not delivered on any of those promises. The biggest losers
:40:13. > :40:16.across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire were the Lib Dems. Their worst
:40:17. > :40:19.defeat was in Calderdale in West Yorkshire: The party was defending
:40:20. > :40:31.six seats in the Halifax`based council...and lost the lot.
:40:32. > :40:34.And, after the surge of UKIP in Rotherham winning half of the
:40:35. > :40:40.available seats are you worried you may not have the job this time next
:40:41. > :40:44.year? Since the by`election in 18 months ago I have worried about
:40:45. > :40:48.being in a job and that has driven me to work as hard as I can and do
:40:49. > :40:52.as much as I can to show to my constituency I am working for them.
:40:53. > :40:55.This just reminds me that the approach I have been taking is the
:40:56. > :41:00.correct one and that is what we must do across the country. Amjad
:41:01. > :41:04.Bashir, let me remind you of the comment Diane Abbott made to Andrew
:41:05. > :41:09.Neil. She said voters in London shunned UKIP because they were
:41:10. > :41:12.educated and in Rotherham they voted for that party because they were
:41:13. > :41:19.less educated, what you make of that? What a ridiculous statement,
:41:20. > :41:24.she obviously does not come from Yorkshire and the county that I am
:41:25. > :41:30.pro of. We are just as well educated as they are in a London. `` that I
:41:31. > :41:33.am proud of. We have just won ten seats in this area and we will
:41:34. > :41:40.continue to build on that. Craig Whittaker, what do you make on the
:41:41. > :41:44.comments made by some of your colleagues who said he will not win
:41:45. > :41:51.the next election issue formed a pact with UKIP? It is utter rubbish.
:41:52. > :41:57.We saw Labour taking control of a local council by winning seats. It
:41:58. > :42:03.was the Tory Party. Labour doing that. UKIP, without question, gave
:42:04. > :42:16.the Labour Party a real hammering in some locations. We saw 18 months
:42:17. > :42:20.ago, two years ago from canvassing on the doorstep that actually it is
:42:21. > :42:30.the Labour vote as much as ours at threat. We are a new dynamic, we are
:42:31. > :42:35.fourth party that has done so well and good that the mainstream parties
:42:36. > :42:40.into freefall. We resonate with the people. It is OK for the Tories to
:42:41. > :42:42.say that they will listen to the electorate and do something about
:42:43. > :42:47.immigration, something about the European Union, were wealthy? The
:42:48. > :42:54.other people that resonates, who talked to the people and listen to
:42:55. > :42:58.the people. That's why we are making such a six. Throughout the country
:42:59. > :43:04.we are making a resounding success. You are 6% down on your results last
:43:05. > :43:08.year and the reality is that the Labour Party on across`the`board
:43:09. > :43:11.across all councils. In London we did not feel as many candidates
:43:12. > :43:19.because we were not set up for London. I will explain to you the
:43:20. > :43:24.percentage. That is the reason why that percentage is showing lower. If
:43:25. > :43:29.we had the infrastructure in London and representation throughout each
:43:30. > :43:34.constituency in London, that would change. You must remember that all
:43:35. > :43:38.seats in London have been contested, in many cases we did not feel any
:43:39. > :43:47.candidate at all. That is why the percentage shows lower. We won 161
:43:48. > :43:50.seats. You will not win only by focusing on London, what I am
:43:51. > :43:56.telling you is that across the country you did not do as well as
:43:57. > :44:00.last year. UKIP have been crowing about how is accessible you have
:44:01. > :44:06.been but you are done on the figures from last year. The reality is very
:44:07. > :44:12.different. The reality is that we started from a certain position and
:44:13. > :44:17.we have gone into the bastion of the Labour Party in Rotherham, then
:44:18. > :44:21.Hull, all over the north`east and we have tackled, unlike the Tories who
:44:22. > :44:26.have failed miserably in the north, we have taken on the Labour Party in
:44:27. > :44:34.the north and on. We have taken on the Conservatives and the southern
:44:35. > :44:40.heartland and one. Is the UKIP party now the protest vote for people who
:44:41. > :44:45.do not like the Conservatives? Some people do not like the Conservatives
:44:46. > :44:50.and some others have not liked us for some time we have recognised
:44:51. > :44:54.that unlike the Labour Party. Ed Miliband was predicted by
:44:55. > :44:58.independent analysis that he needed 500 seats to show that they could
:44:59. > :45:07.take government next year and they have failed miserably in doing that
:45:08. > :45:11.and that is why I will not recognise that UKIP are thought or fourth
:45:12. > :45:17.party. Last year we were told that we were the protest vote. This year
:45:18. > :45:23.we won 161, we are still a protest vote, that is not the case, it is
:45:24. > :45:34.demeaning to the people who voted for us to see that we are simply a
:45:35. > :45:36.protest vote. `` to side. You took control of Bradford Council but you
:45:37. > :45:44.failed to win Calderdale and other local councils. We don't win Kiwi.
:45:45. > :45:55.`` we don't win Kiwi. I will not be happy until you look
:45:56. > :46:00.at the map and the Hall of it is covered in red for the Labour Party.
:46:01. > :46:05.I am looking for the key marginals that we actually achieved and I am
:46:06. > :46:13.confident by winning those marginal seats along the M62 corridor that we
:46:14. > :46:16.were when the next general election. Both the leaders of
:46:17. > :46:21.Labour`controlled councils only last week said without question they were
:46:22. > :46:29.going to take those seats and you feel, you fundamentally failed to
:46:30. > :46:35.deliver. To say that she will paint the Hall of the North red, that is
:46:36. > :46:45.unbelievable. We came second and a lot of seats. It is first past the
:46:46. > :46:49.post. It is a good build`up for 161 seats and we will continue to build
:46:50. > :46:56.upon that. Amjad Bashir, some of your own critics have accused you of
:46:57. > :47:00.hypocrisy because one of your family businesses was found to employ
:47:01. > :47:04.illegal immigrants, and you effect and proper person to represent UKIP
:47:05. > :47:11.as a small and medium`sized business spokesman? These allegations are
:47:12. > :47:17.completely unfounded. There was no suggestion that the employee illegal
:47:18. > :47:22.immigrants? That is not the case. But they were prosecuted. The
:47:23. > :47:26.business employs over 50 people that brings income to a lot of people. I
:47:27. > :47:31.have founded a lot of businesses throughout the country unlike these
:47:32. > :47:36.to represent this year. I am proud of that record. You are proud of
:47:37. > :47:42.running a business that employs illegal immigrants? It's a largely
:47:43. > :47:45.employs local people. The nature of my business has meant that we have a
:47:46. > :47:50.gold star rating in which we can import staff, that is the nature of
:47:51. > :47:55.the business, we have received that gold star rating from the Home
:47:56. > :48:01.Office. It is a job for the Home Office to work after immigration but
:48:02. > :48:06.it has been fostered upon businesses but I was not a director when the
:48:07. > :48:09.visit took place and the directors are defending themselves. You have
:48:10. > :48:16.said seven people were employed illegally. That is correct. Three of
:48:17. > :48:21.these people were clear and four, the Arsenal clarifying the
:48:22. > :48:24.situation. While and you running a business that employs any
:48:25. > :48:29.immigrants, your leader says that you should be looking to employ
:48:30. > :48:35.British people. Why are you employing immigrants? There is a
:48:36. > :48:39.skills shortage. Our party is not completely against immigration, we
:48:40. > :48:45.welcome immigration but it has to be the correct take that and skills and
:48:46. > :48:50.value to our country. I am one of those people who has advocated
:48:51. > :48:54.providing skills to our own so that we do not have to import people from
:48:55. > :49:00.abroad and as long as that remains the case we must do it because there
:49:01. > :49:05.is a shortage of skills. Immigration was a big talking point at the lead
:49:06. > :49:08.up to the European elections. So, we'll find out the results of
:49:09. > :49:11.the European elections just after ten o'clock tonight. There'll be
:49:12. > :49:14.full coverage on the BBC News Channel and later on BBC One. But,
:49:15. > :49:18.of course, the question we always ask at this time of year, is what do
:49:19. > :49:21.the local election results tell us about who could win what in the
:49:22. > :49:24.general election? We asked Professor Colin Mellors from the University of
:49:25. > :49:31.York to crunch the numbers and he's been speaking to Sean Stowell.
:49:32. > :49:38.The headlines the day after the night before. Had a general election
:49:39. > :49:40.taking place last week, they would have looked something like this.
:49:41. > :49:43.UKIP taking Great Grimsby off the hands of Labour. And possibly
:49:44. > :49:49.Cleethorpes from the Conservatives as well. Over in Leeds, whilst they
:49:50. > :50:06.would be no change amongst MPs, UKIP would have been runners`up in Leeds
:50:07. > :50:08.Central. And along the marginal constituencies connected by the M62,
:50:09. > :50:16.Labour would have gained Bradford East and Bradford West and Keighley
:50:17. > :50:19.but only by the slimmest of margins. In Sheffield, amid the wreckage of
:50:20. > :50:24.the Lib Dem vote, Nick Clegg would have nevertheless have held his
:50:25. > :50:27.seat. According to the BBC number crunchers, this week's local
:50:28. > :50:30.election results would not have put Ed Miliband in Downing Street, so
:50:31. > :50:50.what does this mean for Labour in the North? The challenge we have
:50:51. > :50:53.seen in Yorkshire with these election results is how to re`engage
:50:54. > :50:56.with an electorate that is drifting and contrasts with how well Labour
:50:57. > :51:00.has done in London this week with not how terribly well they have done
:51:01. > :51:03.in the North of England is a very stark one. Rotherham is a town with
:51:04. > :51:07.a number of immigrants is below the national average. The challenge
:51:08. > :51:10.facing Labour and the Conservatives is only too clear, how do the
:51:11. > :51:13.parties deal with immigration on what they would describe as the UKIP
:51:14. > :51:18.factor. What is the problem with immigration
:51:19. > :51:33.in this region? There is too many immigrants. The big parties need to
:51:34. > :51:36.block their idea is up. We still need to look at the manifestoes of
:51:37. > :51:41.the big parties before making our decision. We hear the predictions
:51:42. > :51:47.from Professor Colin Mellors. Lord Ashcroft has also suggested from his
:51:48. > :51:52.research that the Labour Party will have a big majority at the next
:51:53. > :51:59.election. Your colleagues are perhaps sweating like the accountant
:52:00. > :52:06.of Garry Barlow, are you not? ! The only poll that matters is the
:52:07. > :52:11.election next year. We will be working right across the country to
:52:12. > :52:15.put things right. How are you going to win back people who voted UKIP
:52:16. > :52:21.this year in time for the general election next year, Sarah Champion?
:52:22. > :52:25.We have strong policies around jobs, housing, the cost of living and our
:52:26. > :52:31.task is to get our message out to the people. Once we get the
:52:32. > :52:34.policies, we have in the past not explain them properly and for myself
:52:35. > :52:38.and my colleagues it is telling people what we are going to do and
:52:39. > :52:45.how we are going to help them, especially not just the majority ``
:52:46. > :52:53.not just the minority but the majority of people. When it comes to
:52:54. > :53:00.general election contest, second is about the best that the UKIP party
:53:01. > :53:06.can manage, is that not the case? We are going to get MPs into power next
:53:07. > :53:13.year. Allow me to finish, please. All of the people who stand for
:53:14. > :53:17.government and our party, all the people standing as MEPs and
:53:18. > :53:23.councillors, they are all ordinary folk like myself, I am the son of a
:53:24. > :53:28.mill worker and we have all worked hard all of our lives. We are not
:53:29. > :53:32.career politicians, that is why the people like us and that is why we
:53:33. > :53:38.will get votes next year at the general election, we are real
:53:39. > :53:41.people. My father was a mechanic and my mother worked at the Children's
:53:42. > :53:50.Hospital, so am I a career politician? Some of these people do
:53:51. > :53:58.not do normal work, they do not understand. After 40 years of hard
:53:59. > :54:02.work, trying to look after my family and providing employment, I have
:54:03. > :54:08.come into politics because I believe that you guys have got it wrong. You
:54:09. > :54:12.are telling us that people like Sarah and myself have not worked
:54:13. > :54:19.hard for 40 years old and after our families? ! That is all typical of
:54:20. > :54:24.the hypocrisy of your party. We are real people and we have worked
:54:25. > :54:29.extremely hard. So have I and so has Craig Whittaker. We know about the
:54:30. > :54:37.concerns of the people because we have worked in the real world. You
:54:38. > :54:46.cannot dismiss others. Judith Maude even know my name before you came
:54:47. > :54:52.and they are today, so how dare you tell me what I have done in my life
:54:53. > :55:01.and what I have achieved. `` you do not even know my name. We are both
:55:02. > :55:07.very good local MPs. Looking at your front bench, they have all been to
:55:08. > :55:14.the same colleges and schools, we have been exposed to the real world
:55:15. > :55:17.where we have provided jobs and work within the courses. You do not even
:55:18. > :55:24.know our names, do not lecture others. I knew your names and I knew
:55:25. > :55:31.who you were. I am telling you the truth. What you are seeing is
:55:32. > :55:38.symptomatic of what many people in your party have been saying. You are
:55:39. > :55:49.simply repeating the same lines back to us. I will say it once more time.
:55:50. > :55:54.We worked in the real world. Therefore we know what the people
:55:55. > :55:59.want. You do not have the policies. Can we get back to talk about the
:56:00. > :56:06.issues that matter to voters in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. The one
:56:07. > :56:11.issue that people are talking about Time and again that immigration. Ed
:56:12. > :56:15.Balls and Ed Miliband have set a tough line on this issue is
:56:16. > :56:18.necessary but they were both in government when policies regarding
:56:19. > :56:23.immigration where relaxed, how can we trust your party? We have very
:56:24. > :56:29.clear ideas on how to address this problem. We are going to tackle
:56:30. > :56:33.illegal immigrants, then we are going to toughen up border control
:56:34. > :56:37.and he huge way. What we have seen is that border agency staff have
:56:38. > :56:41.been cut. We are clocking people coming in but we do not clock then
:56:42. > :56:44.going out and we do not have the resources to get rid of them if they
:56:45. > :56:49.are found to be living here illegally. We must then tackle the
:56:50. > :56:52.employment agencies that are only here for overseas workers and not
:56:53. > :56:56.paying them the minimum wage. We have to bring forward a whole range
:56:57. > :57:04.of options and opportunities for us to be tough going forward. When the
:57:05. > :57:10.Labour Party came to power in 1987 and when they relaxed the rules in
:57:11. > :57:20.2004, the said 30,000 to 40,000 people would come into this country.
:57:21. > :57:24.4 million people came over, that is two or three times the size of the
:57:25. > :57:31.population of Birmingham. Where are they going to build the houses and
:57:32. > :57:36.the schools? We need to build a new house every seven minutes to go with
:57:37. > :57:40.that sort of immigration. Let me bring in Craig Whittaker, from your
:57:41. > :57:46.election results, the voters do not trust the Tory Party either. When we
:57:47. > :57:50.talk about immigration, immigration itself outside of Europe has
:57:51. > :57:54.decreased by one third, so what we are caught me about this actually
:57:55. > :57:58.freedom of movement within Europe and that is the part that we cannot
:57:59. > :58:03.as a government or any government deal with without dealing with the
:58:04. > :58:11.euro question as well. You cannot do anything about that. Absolutely,
:58:12. > :58:15.that is what I have said. When Nigel Farage says he would not want to
:58:16. > :58:19.live next door to Romanians, how is that different from people saying
:58:20. > :58:26.they should not be forced to live next door to Pakistani families? We
:58:27. > :58:31.have been attacked and derided, and the highest court in the land which
:58:32. > :58:35.is the public, they have voted in 161 new councillors, you have field
:58:36. > :58:40.with your attacks, this is nothing but an attack. Please give us your
:58:41. > :58:51.predictions for next year's general election. We will be victorious with
:58:52. > :58:58.a small majority. I think that the Labour Party will win. I hope that
:58:59. > :59:03.the mothers when also at Wembley, but I believe that you get will be a
:59:04. > :59:07.fighting force that will dominate politics for a long time to come. ``
:59:08. > :59:12.the benefits system to make it
:59:13. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:26.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:27. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:38.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:39. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:01.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:02. > :00:05.poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this
:00:06. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:15.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:16. > :00:21.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:22. > :00:24.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:25. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:49.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:50. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:09.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:10. > :01:15.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:16. > :01:22.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:23. > :01:31.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:32. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:45.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:46. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:20.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:21. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:30.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:31. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:42.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:43. > :02:49.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:50. > :02:54.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:55. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:05.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:06. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:26.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:27. > :03:34.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:35. > :03:40.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:41. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:58.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:03:59. > :04:06.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:07. > :04:12.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:13. > :04:19.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:20. > :04:23.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:24. > :04:27.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:28. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:38.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:39. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:03.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:04. > :05:08.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:09. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:27.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:28. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:35.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:36. > :05:39.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:40. > :05:45.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:46. > :05:47.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:48. > :05:57.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:58. > :06:04.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:05. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:21.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:22. > :06:28.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:29. > :06:30.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:31. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:47.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:48. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :06:59.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:00. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:17.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:18. > :07:20.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:21. > :07:27.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:28. > :07:31.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:32. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:45.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:46. > :07:54.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:55. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:03.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:04. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:29.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:30. > :08:33.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:34. > :08:41.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:42. > :08:45.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:46. > :08:50.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:51. > :08:54.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:55. > :08:59.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:00. > :09:04.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:05. > :09:10.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:11. > :09:15.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:16. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:57.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:58. > :10:01.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:02. > :10:08.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:09. > :10:14.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:15. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:29.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:30. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :10:40.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:41. > :11:36.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:37. > :11:43.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:44. > :11:46.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:47. > :11:53.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:54. > :11:58.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:11:59. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:08.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you
:12:09. > :12:15.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You
:12:16. > :12:20.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:21. > :12:24.different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:25. > :12:29.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:30. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:39.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:40. > :12:44.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:45. > :12:49.abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:50. > :12:53.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:54. > :13:00.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:01. > :13:05.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:06. > :13:09.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:10. > :13:14.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:15. > :13:20.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:21. > :13:23.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:24. > :13:30.David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:31. > :13:35.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:36. > :14:12.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:13. > :14:15.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:22.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain
:14:23. > :14:26.of the results both here and across Europe.