:00:37. > :00:38.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:39. > :00:45.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:46. > :00:46.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:47. > :00:52.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:53. > :00:59.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:00. > :01:02.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:03. > :01:05.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:06. > :01:13.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:14. > :01:20.On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire `
:01:21. > :01:23.as MPs vote for war, we speak to the family of a
:01:24. > :01:28.Yorkshireman who's on the front line in the fight against Islamic State.
:01:29. > :01:33.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:34. > :01:37.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:38. > :01:41.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:42. > :01:44.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:45. > :01:51.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:52. > :01:54.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:58.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:01:59. > :02:00.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:01. > :02:04.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:05. > :02:07.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:08. > :02:11.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:12. > :02:15.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:16. > :02:21.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:22. > :02:28.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:29. > :02:40.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:41. > :02:44.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:45. > :02:47.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:48. > :02:52.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:53. > :02:53.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:54. > :03:02.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:03. > :03:09.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:10. > :03:12.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:13. > :03:16.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:17. > :03:20.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:21. > :03:24.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:25. > :03:28.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:29. > :03:33.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:34. > :03:37.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:38. > :03:40.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:41. > :03:45.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:46. > :03:48.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:49. > :03:53.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:54. > :03:59.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:00. > :04:04.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:05. > :04:08.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:09. > :04:12.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:13. > :04:17.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:18. > :04:38.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:39. > :04:43.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:44. > :04:50.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:51. > :04:55.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:56. > :04:58.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:04:59. > :05:01.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:02. > :05:05.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:06. > :05:11.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:12. > :05:20.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:21. > :05:26.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:27. > :05:32.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:33. > :05:37.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:38. > :05:43.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:44. > :05:46.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:47. > :05:50.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:51. > :05:54.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:55. > :05:57.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:58. > :06:01.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:02. > :06:06.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:07. > :06:11.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:12. > :06:14.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:15. > :06:21.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:22. > :06:26.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:27. > :06:30.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10
:06:31. > :06:34.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:35. > :06:38.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:39. > :06:42.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:43. > :06:46.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:47. > :06:51.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:52. > :06:58.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:06:59. > :07:07.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:08. > :07:11.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:12. > :07:17.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:18. > :07:20.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:21. > :07:26.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:27. > :07:30.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:31. > :07:34.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:35. > :07:44.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:45. > :07:48.MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their
:07:49. > :07:53.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:54. > :07:56.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:57. > :08:00.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:01. > :08:04.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:05. > :08:11.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:12. > :08:14.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:15. > :08:22.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:23. > :08:26.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:27. > :08:31.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:32. > :08:35.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:36. > :08:42.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:43. > :08:44.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:45. > :08:51.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:52. > :08:55.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:56. > :08:59.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:00. > :09:02.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:03. > :09:06.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:07. > :09:11.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:12. > :09:14.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:15. > :09:19.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:20. > :09:23.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:24. > :09:30.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:31. > :09:37.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:38. > :09:40.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:41. > :09:48.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:49. > :09:51.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:52. > :09:57.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:58. > :10:00.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:01. > :10:08.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:09. > :10:13.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:14. > :10:18.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:19. > :10:31.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:32. > :10:36.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:37. > :10:40.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:41. > :10:44.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:45. > :10:50.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:51. > :10:54.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:55. > :10:59.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:00. > :11:01.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:02. > :11:05.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:06. > :11:11.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:12. > :11:16.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:17. > :11:20.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:21. > :11:23.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:24. > :11:27.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:28. > :11:30.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:31. > :11:34.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:35. > :11:38.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:39. > :11:44.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:45. > :11:49.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:50. > :11:53.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:54. > :12:00.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:01. > :12:05.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:06. > :12:10.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:11. > :12:15.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:16. > :12:20.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:21. > :12:23.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:24. > :12:29.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:30. > :12:34.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:35. > :12:37.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:38. > :12:42.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:43. > :12:46.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:47. > :12:52.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:53. > :12:59.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:00. > :13:02.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:03. > :13:07.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:08. > :13:19.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:20. > :13:21.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:22. > :13:26.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:27. > :13:31.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:32. > :13:34.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:35. > :13:47.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:48. > :13:51.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:52. > :13:54.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:55. > :14:00.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:01. > :14:06.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:07. > :14:10.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:11. > :14:14.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:15. > :14:21.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:22. > :14:26.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:27. > :14:30.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:31. > :14:33.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:34. > :14:43.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:44. > :14:46.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:47. > :14:51.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:52. > :14:57.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:58. > :15:09.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:10. > :15:18.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:19. > :15:22.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:23. > :15:27.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:28. > :15:32.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:33. > :15:36.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:37. > :15:43.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:44. > :15:48.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:49. > :15:55.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:56. > :16:00.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:01. > :16:10.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:11. > :16:14.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:15. > :16:21.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:22. > :16:27.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:28. > :16:32.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:33. > :16:38.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:39. > :16:46.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:47. > :16:50.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:51. > :16:56.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:57. > :17:02.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:03. > :17:08.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:09. > :17:14.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:15. > :17:18.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:19. > :17:24.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:25. > :17:30.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:31. > :17:34.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:35. > :17:38.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:39. > :17:42.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:43. > :17:47.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:48. > :17:54.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:55. > :18:00.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:01. > :18:04.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:05. > :18:08.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:09. > :18:13.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:14. > :18:18.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:19. > :18:24.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:25. > :18:30.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:31. > :18:35.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:36. > :18:39.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:40. > :18:45.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:46. > :18:49.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:50. > :18:54.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:55. > :19:00.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:01. > :19:05.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:06. > :19:11.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:12. > :19:16.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:17. > :19:22.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:23. > :19:26.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:27. > :19:31.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:32. > :19:37.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:38. > :19:42.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:43. > :19:46.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:47. > :19:55.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:56. > :19:58.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:19:59. > :20:06.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:07. > :20:12.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:13. > :20:16.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:17. > :20:20.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:21. > :20:29.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:30. > :20:33.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:34. > :20:36.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:37. > :20:41.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:42. > :20:47.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:48. > :20:51.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:52. > :20:58.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:20:59. > :21:03.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:04. > :21:12.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:13. > :21:16.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:17. > :21:19.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:20. > :21:27.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:28. > :21:34.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:35. > :21:47.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:48. > :21:53.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:54. > :22:11.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:12. > :22:19.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:20. > :22:24.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:25. > :22:28.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:29. > :22:35.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:36. > :22:39.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:40. > :22:45.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:46. > :22:51.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:52. > :22:57.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:58. > :23:01.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:02. > :23:06.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:07. > :23:13.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:14. > :23:17.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:18. > :23:21.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:22. > :23:26.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:27. > :23:30.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:31. > :23:34.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:35. > :23:39.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:40. > :23:44.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:45. > :23:52.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:53. > :23:58.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:23:59. > :24:08.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:09. > :24:14.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:15. > :24:18.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:19. > :24:25.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:26. > :24:30.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:31. > :24:35.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:36. > :24:38.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:39. > :24:42.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:43. > :24:47.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:48. > :24:52.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:53. > :24:57.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:58. > :25:02.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:03. > :25:07.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:08. > :25:12.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:13. > :25:17.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:18. > :25:24.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:25. > :25:31.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:32. > :25:35.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:36. > :25:40.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:41. > :25:45.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:46. > :25:50.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:51. > :25:56.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:57. > :26:00.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:01. > :26:05.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:06. > :26:09.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:10. > :26:15.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:16. > :26:21.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:22. > :26:26.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:27. > :26:32.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:33. > :26:37.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:38. > :26:40.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:41. > :26:45.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:46. > :26:51.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:52. > :26:55.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:56. > :27:00.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:01. > :27:05.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:06. > :27:14.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:15. > :27:20.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:21. > :27:24.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:25. > :27:28.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:29. > :27:34.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:35. > :27:40.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:41. > :27:46.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:47. > :27:51.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:52. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:03.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:04. > :28:08.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:09. > :28:13.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:14. > :28:18.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:19. > :28:23.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:24. > :28:27.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:28. > :28:31.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:32. > :28:34.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:35. > :28:40.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:41. > :28:46.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:47. > :28:48.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:49. > :28:51.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:52. > :28:53.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:54. > :29:02.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:03. > :29:06.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:07. > :29:11.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:12. > :29:16.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:17. > :29:21.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:22. > :29:24.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:25. > :29:29.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:30. > :29:33.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:34. > :29:36.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:37. > :29:49.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:50. > :29:53.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:54. > :30:00.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:01. > :30:02.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:03. > :30:09.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:10. > :30:14.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:15. > :30:18.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:19. > :30:21.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:22. > :30:27.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:28. > :30:30.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:31. > :30:36.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:37. > :30:40.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:41. > :30:45.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:46. > :30:49.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:50. > :30:54.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:55. > :30:58.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:30:59. > :31:03.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:04. > :31:06.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:07. > :31:10.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:11. > :31:17.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:18. > :31:23.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:24. > :31:25.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:26. > :31:35.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:36. > :31:39.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:40. > :31:44.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:45. > :31:48.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:49. > :31:51.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:52. > :31:55.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:56. > :32:04.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:05. > :32:08.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:09. > :32:15.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:16. > :32:23.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:24. > :32:27.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:28. > :32:32.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:33. > :32:36.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:37. > :32:40.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:41. > :32:46.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:47. > :32:49.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:50. > :32:55.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:56. > :33:01.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:02. > :33:06.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:07. > :33:10.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:11. > :33:13.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:14. > :33:17.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:18. > :33:21.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:22. > :33:27.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:28. > :33:31.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:32. > :33:35.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:36. > :33:39.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:40. > :33:44.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:45. > :33:48.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:49. > :33:51.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:52. > :33:57.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:58. > :34:02.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:03. > :34:07.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:08. > :34:12.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:13. > :34:18.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:19. > :34:22.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:23. > :34:25.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:26. > :34:33.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:34. > :34:37.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:38. > :34:43.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:44. > :34:48.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:49. > :34:52.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:53. > :34:54.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:55. > :35:00.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:01. > :35:06.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:07. > :35:13.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:14. > :35:18.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:19. > :35:24.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't
:35:25. > :35:28.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:29. > :35:32.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:33. > :35:37.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:38. > :35:43.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:44. > :35:46.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:47. > :35:53.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:54. > :35:56.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:57. > :36:02.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:03. > :36:06.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:07. > :36:13.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:14. > :36:19.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it
:36:20. > :36:24.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:25. > :36:30.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:31. > :36:34.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:35. > :36:41.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:42. > :36:46.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:47. > :36:51.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:52. > :36:55.of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:56. > :37:00.given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:01. > :37:04.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:05. > :37:09.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:10. > :37:13.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:14. > :37:23.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:24. > :37:26.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:27. > :37:27.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:28. > :37:30.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:31. > :37:34.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:35. > :37:47.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello, good morning,
:37:48. > :37:49.you're watching the Sunday Politics As MPs support air strikes hn Iraq `
:37:50. > :37:55.we speak to the family of Yorkshireman who's on the front line
:37:56. > :38:02.in the fight against Islamic State. We'll also look back
:38:03. > :38:04.on a headline`grabbing UKIP conference in Doncaster and we'll be
:38:05. > :38:07.asking which party has the lost to Our guests today are Labour MP
:38:08. > :38:12.for Penistone and Stocksbridge, Amjad Bashir, UKIP MEP for Xorkshire
:38:13. > :38:18.and North Lincolnshire. And joining us live from thd
:38:19. > :38:21.Conservative Party conference is John Hayes ` MP for South Holland
:38:22. > :38:24.and the Deepings in Lincolnshire and First,
:38:25. > :38:39.as RAF jets begin combat missions in Iraq, we speak to the familx of a
:38:40. > :38:42.Yorkshireman who's already fighting on the front line against the terror
:38:43. > :38:44.group known as Islamic Statd. They're warning that doing nothing
:38:45. > :39:02.in the fight against the militants This is is a mixed on the front
:39:03. > :39:08.line. They filled a refuse truck with bombs and drive it tow`rds
:39:09. > :39:13.Kurdish fighters. This that it has been given to us by a man whose
:39:14. > :39:21.cousin is fighting against the Islamic group. He had no idda that
:39:22. > :39:24.his cousin, who had lived in west Yorkshire for 12 years, gond to the
:39:25. > :39:29.Middle East to fight. He only realised when he saw him on the
:39:30. > :39:36.news. Here's some video of him, he had an interview. I am from
:39:37. > :39:46.Kurdistan but I lived in Ledds for 12 years and Aussie terrorists. .
:39:47. > :39:54.He is a member of the Kurdish peshmerga, the armed fighters of the
:39:55. > :40:03.regional authority. So far three members of our family have been
:40:04. > :40:07.killed by Isis. But as I mentioned, even if hundreds of my family were
:40:08. > :40:11.killed, I would be proud because we are doing everything against them,
:40:12. > :40:16.we fight to death. Islamic State has a repetition for barbaric khllings
:40:17. > :40:20.which they post online, bringing terror to the Middle East and across
:40:21. > :40:28.the globe. They do something, it's like butchery, in fact. When they
:40:29. > :40:34.leave any place, you can sed bodies without head. The Kurdish pdshmerga
:40:35. > :40:39.right now are fighting for `ll the world. If the peshmerga don't stop
:40:40. > :40:45.the fight, they will come to you. The most serious thing is if Isis
:40:46. > :40:48.Cross the peshmerga, they whll definitely be here. I thought echoed
:40:49. > :41:07.by his cousin. Do you think we should be
:41:08. > :41:11.encouraging young men from Xorkshire and elsewhere to join groups like
:41:12. > :41:17.the Kurdish peshmerga in thdir fight? Know, to be honest more what
:41:18. > :41:27.I want to make clear is we absolutely support the decision made
:41:28. > :41:31.by the government as you well know. Islamic State is a murderous
:41:32. > :41:35.organisation, it has taken British aid workers hostage, we havd seen
:41:36. > :41:40.David Haines beheaded in an outrageous act of terrorism, we
:41:41. > :41:45.believe the stability of thd region is under threat because of them and
:41:46. > :41:49.ultimately UK national security So as far as I'm concerned we `re
:41:50. > :41:54.focused on making sure the TK Government gets its reaction to that
:41:55. > :41:59.proportionately right, we do watch this as a major deal with this
:42:00. > :42:05.problem in conjunction and coalition with our international partners
:42:06. > :42:10.Amjad Bashir, how difficult is it to make the decision, we're telling
:42:11. > :42:14.young people not to join jihadist groups in the Middle East, can you
:42:15. > :42:20.tell people not to join the Kurds even though they are fighting
:42:21. > :42:24.against our enemy? It just shows you the difficulty involved. I think the
:42:25. > :42:32.whole situation is a mess, created by our invasion in the year 200 ,
:42:33. > :42:37.which everybody deemed an illegal invasion anyway. It split the
:42:38. > :42:40.country into an ethnic divide, a religious divide, it should be
:42:41. > :42:49.sorted out by the regional powers there, we are interfering in a Civil
:42:50. > :42:54.War. We shouldn't be there. Let s go live to the Conservative Party
:42:55. > :42:57.conference. You represent a Lincolnshire constituency,
:42:58. > :43:02.Lincolnshire is a military county, with a number of RAF bases, is there
:43:03. > :43:10.a real appetite for war in xour part of the world? I'm a member of the
:43:11. > :43:13.British Legion in Holbeach `ctually, and as you said, Lincolnshire has a
:43:14. > :43:22.proud history in respect of the RAF. But what you just heard, it
:43:23. > :43:28.seemed to me from the revishons to the UKIP was quite outrageots. The
:43:29. > :43:31.idea that we shouldn't intervene when British citizens are bding
:43:32. > :43:36.kidnapped and butchered is preposterous. What you saw last
:43:37. > :43:42.Friday was honoured at its best the main parliaments coming togdther,
:43:43. > :43:46.recognising this needs to bd proportionate `` the main p`rties
:43:47. > :43:50.coming together. But not stdpping back and saying we should do
:43:51. > :43:55.nothing. I think the previots speaker should apologise for that.
:43:56. > :44:00.Are you going to apologise? Not at all. We have inflamed the shtuation,
:44:01. > :44:06.we have gone in there again and again over the last century, we have
:44:07. > :44:12.pondered the Iraqis again and again. We have done right in Europd. We
:44:13. > :44:16.brought Europe together, th`t's what should happen in the Middle East as
:44:17. > :44:24.well. Our interference is not welcome. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran,
:44:25. > :44:31.Syria, those are the people who should put that right, not ts. And
:44:32. > :44:35.far from stopping people gohng across, you are radicalising
:44:36. > :44:41.people, because they will interpret this as the invasion from the West.
:44:42. > :44:45.If we don't want to radicalhse the youth, we want to stay out over
:44:46. > :44:54.disputes like this, let the regional players sorted out. Let me just ask
:44:55. > :44:57.Angela Smith, do you believd there is a danger that a new generation of
:44:58. > :45:03.Muslims could become radicalised because of this? I think it is
:45:04. > :45:05.outrageous for UKIP to suggdst that the UK Government and an
:45:06. > :45:09.international coalition, put together to fight Isis, could be
:45:10. > :45:19.responsible for radicalising British youth. That does not stand tp to
:45:20. > :45:22.scrutiny. You are outrageous. There is support from within the region
:45:23. > :45:27.thought we are doing now. Wd have been asked by Iraqi governmdnt to
:45:28. > :45:34.take action, to support thel in building their ability to fhght Isis
:45:35. > :45:37.on the ground. So how support is designed to give the Iraqi
:45:38. > :45:43.government the support it ndeds so it can effectively fight Ishs. It's
:45:44. > :45:49.not just Iraq, we're seeing other Middle Eastern states joining the
:45:50. > :45:54.coalition. So it's not true, the region has asked for our support. In
:45:55. > :45:58.the year 2003, her party, Tony Blair, said we were going to Iraq
:45:59. > :46:03.because they were weapons of mass destruction, that was not true. Then
:46:04. > :46:09.mission creep came in, then it was changing regimes. Isis was there
:46:10. > :46:17.before, there wasn't Al`Qaeda there, we have created it by going in there
:46:18. > :46:24.in an illegal war. There is no question that this is a leg`l
:46:25. > :46:29.situation. This is going to last years according to the Primd
:46:30. > :46:33.Minister, not months. This hs a legal decision, because we were
:46:34. > :46:41.invited to take this action by the Iraqi government. Morally wrong If
:46:42. > :46:44.it is morally wrong to fight people who are torturing, murdering and
:46:45. > :46:47.raping people, I have to qudstion your morals. If we're not going to
:46:48. > :46:53.intervene now, when are we? At what point are these people going to be
:46:54. > :46:57.so barbarous that we can justify taking action? What you havd heard
:46:58. > :47:04.from the UKIP MEP is a disgrace it just typical of his party. H have
:47:05. > :47:07.situation is a front, that was situation is a front, that was
:47:08. > :47:13.another silly thing to say. Until they start getting serious, they
:47:14. > :47:19.will always be a fringe party. He is morally wrong because Isis hs an
:47:20. > :47:26.organisation which is out of order, which I oppose, what we are saying
:47:27. > :47:31.is we shouldn't be involved. But you don't want to do anything about it.
:47:32. > :47:38.The regimes, like Saudi Arabia, why aren't they bombing? Why isn't
:47:39. > :47:46.Turkey bombing? Why are we, thousands of miles of, riskhng our
:47:47. > :47:50.young men and exposing oursdlves? Can I just say that at the heart of
:47:51. > :47:55.this, we're talking about British aid workers who are at risk in Iraq
:47:56. > :48:04.because of the current situ`tion. Alan Henning is being held hostage,
:48:05. > :48:12.on it to our own situations to our situations `` we owe it to our own
:48:13. > :48:20.citizens. You should have hdld back. Can I make a point? We are doing
:48:21. > :48:23.this at the invitation of the Iraqi government. It makes it a completely
:48:24. > :48:29.legal intervention and we are doing it... This is cynical. You have not
:48:30. > :48:36.thought about Alan Henning's wife and children, you have done this
:48:37. > :48:46.bombing... This is going to dominate the political agenda for ye`rs, we
:48:47. > :48:54.will come back to it. The ddfection of the Tory MP Mark reckless was the
:48:55. > :48:59.highlight of the UKIP conference. All eyes on the contest to dlect a
:49:00. > :49:10.new police and crime commission in South Yorkshire. Feeling confident?
:49:11. > :49:14.Ask me afterwards. It's intdresting, most people are fearful abott public
:49:15. > :49:19.speaking, what they have to say at a wedding. They'll assume that
:49:20. > :49:24.politicians are different breed and it's easy for us and not sc`red I
:49:25. > :49:29.am skint, or write? It didn't show as he stepped onto the platform for
:49:30. > :49:32.the most important speech in the history of his party. It was the
:49:33. > :49:39.biggest conference the partx has ever held, and the venue, couple of
:49:40. > :49:45.hundred yards from Ed Milib`nd's constituency, was provocative. They
:49:46. > :49:52.have been too many in the mddia who say that you gets vote from Tories,
:49:53. > :49:55.as you well know, we have increasingly been taking sole big
:49:56. > :50:01.chunks out of the Labour vote in the North. So we have a conference in Ed
:50:02. > :50:06.Miliband's constituency to say that if you are a traditional Labour
:50:07. > :50:11.voter, your party is not st`nding up for you on many of the key hssues.
:50:12. > :50:16.Without question you could did well to come second in those by`dlections
:50:17. > :50:20.in South Yorkshire, in Barnsley and Rotherham in 2011 and 2012 but the
:50:21. > :50:24.evidence that that was at the expense of Labour rather th`n the
:50:25. > :50:29.Conservatives and Liberal Ddmocrats is patchy at best. That is comfort
:50:30. > :50:32.for lonely because fast forward to the European elections of M`y this
:50:33. > :50:45.year, it's clear that UKIP hs catching up fast. Votes werd by each
:50:46. > :51:09.All this before the damaging political nightmare for Labour in
:51:10. > :51:14.Rotherham, the Labour, said counsel under fire for failing to t`ckle
:51:15. > :51:20.years of sexual abuse on hundreds of young girls in the town. Yot are an
:51:21. > :51:26.MP says she's afraid that UKIP will now take over her seat on the back
:51:27. > :51:29.of this. Of course we will fight the seats in Rotherham and will fight
:51:30. > :51:33.them on our values, with thd things we offer, with great MPs who have
:51:34. > :51:38.spoken out eloquently about what happened there. But the priority is
:51:39. > :51:42.getting things right for thd victims of this terrible abuse. Replacing
:51:43. > :51:48.this man will show how much damage has been done. Shaun Wright, the
:51:49. > :51:54.Police and Crime Commissiondr, once the cancer in charge of children's
:51:55. > :52:00.services, has now finally rdsigned. `` wants the counsellor. Labour
:52:01. > :52:07.chose a boxing gym to announce the by`election. I'm that assochated
:52:08. > :52:12.with Rotherham or their counsel or the South Yorkshire Police force, I
:52:13. > :52:16.coming as a person free of `ll that `` I am not associated. I h`ve my
:52:17. > :52:22.views about all that, my job is to ensure that what is discovered is
:52:23. > :52:29.dealt with and followed through He said he doesn't want it to be a
:52:30. > :52:34.witchhunt. To be honest, he would say that, wouldn't he? He would
:52:35. > :52:41.because there are Labour politicians they're hiding things. UKIP and
:52:42. > :52:45.Labour are likely to be a two horse race to fill the 20 months or so
:52:46. > :52:51.before the next scheduled elections for Police and Crime Commissioner.
:52:52. > :52:56.Other parties have yet to rdlease their runners. The Lib Dems say they
:52:57. > :53:04.will not bother. Labour havd already announced it wants to abolish every
:53:05. > :53:10.Commissioner across the country Let's go back to the Tory
:53:11. > :53:13.conference. You are a senior adviser to David Cameron. With UKIP
:53:14. > :53:20.threatening more defections from your party, is it squeaky btm time?
:53:21. > :53:26.There is only get be one or two people walking down Downing Street,
:53:27. > :53:31.Ed Miliband or David Cameron. The only way to ensure it's not Ed
:53:32. > :53:40.Miliband is to vote Conserv`tive. That also means we can conthnue with
:53:41. > :53:43.our long`term economic plan, millions more apprenticeships, I was
:53:44. > :53:47.part of that, there are reasons are making sure the Conservativds
:53:48. > :53:53.presented a plan and stopping Labour get into power. Do you fear that
:53:54. > :53:59.some Labour figures not affdct to UKIP? I don't. Let's be cle`r about
:54:00. > :54:07.UKIP, it's more Tory than the Tories. If you look at the figures,
:54:08. > :54:14.24 Tory funders have given 2.25 million pounds to UKIP, and Tory
:54:15. > :54:23.bankers have donated over ?700, 00 of that total. The things they stand
:54:24. > :54:26.for will deliver what I think is the extreme end of Tory values `nd I
:54:27. > :54:31.think it would be damaging for the country if that were to be the case.
:54:32. > :54:38.I'm confident that Ed Milib`nd will be walking down the steps of Downing
:54:39. > :54:42.Street next May. I've heard criticism from Labour figurds
:54:43. > :54:49.suggesting people in UKIP whll the Rotherham abuse scandal for unfair
:54:50. > :54:53.game, is that fair? It is not, it's a serious subject, a lot of girls
:54:54. > :54:59.have been abused over the l`st 6 years. It's political correctness
:55:00. > :55:01.gone mad. The Labour Party have hidden the fact that a lot of Asian
:55:02. > :55:06.men were involved, these were supporters of the Labour Party. The
:55:07. > :55:11.Labour Party should have protected these former girls and faildd to do
:55:12. > :55:16.so. They should have acted `gainst Shaun Wright, they didn't rdmove
:55:17. > :55:22.him, they should have held tp their hands and taken action and hnstead
:55:23. > :55:26.and protect these Asian paedophiles and protect these Asian paedophiles
:55:27. > :55:31.and these people who went against these girls, but them about and
:55:32. > :55:41.abused them, it's Labour Party at fault and it is Baltics, because it
:55:42. > :55:47.is politicians who gave people jobs to protect the girls and thdy didn't
:55:48. > :55:55.do so. It would be a disastdr if Labour lost the Police and Crime
:55:56. > :55:59.Commissioner leadership? Festival, when the report was released a few
:56:00. > :56:03.weeks ago, we were absolutely clear that Shaun Wright should resign and
:56:04. > :56:08.he resigned from the Labour Party and the position, you should have
:56:09. > :56:16.gone straight away but he dhdn't, and he has now. We are confhdent
:56:17. > :56:19.that with our new candidate, we have somebody who can start the very
:56:20. > :56:24.important work of ensuring that we do get this right now, South
:56:25. > :56:28.Yorkshire Police have a rold in all Yorkshire Police have a rold in all
:56:29. > :56:35.of this and it wasn't up to standard, I think Alan Billhngs is
:56:36. > :56:39.not a politician, his work hs in the community with the youth Justice
:56:40. > :56:47.board, he is perfectly placdd now to deliver what is needed to ddliver
:56:48. > :56:49.what is a difficult situation. Going back to the UKIP thread, wotldn t
:56:50. > :56:57.you say to a colleague who said they are considering joining UKIP.
:56:58. > :57:03.How would you talk them out of it? I would simply say, that is an
:57:04. > :57:07.irrational, a logical thing to do if you want to secure a better future
:57:08. > :57:14.for our country. By retaining this government, the long`term economic
:57:15. > :57:19.plan is delivering. We will have the stronger stick on in Europe next
:57:20. > :57:24.year, we already have the strongest economy of the advanced countries,
:57:25. > :57:29.we are cutting unemployment, creating more apprenticeships, we
:57:30. > :57:35.kept taxes down, taken 3 million people out of tax. If you w`nt to
:57:36. > :57:41.continue with that, you havd too re`elected this government. It is
:57:42. > :57:51.Miliband or Cameron, and I wanted to be Cameron. You are not consist form
:57:52. > :57:55.the next government. You have lost two MPs already and he will lose
:57:56. > :57:59.several more and you will lose the next election. UKIP are going to be
:58:00. > :58:06.the power brokers next year. What is your response? As I said, in a
:58:07. > :58:11.general election, are chooshng a government. Fringe parties `t a
:58:12. > :58:17.certain degree of colour to politics, that is the best xou can
:58:18. > :58:20.say about the UKIP candidatd, he's colourful and has ordered vhews but
:58:21. > :58:31.frankly he will not be part of the next government. `` odd views. I got
:58:32. > :58:33.nearly 430,000 votes of the European elections, we wonder is, we trounced
:58:34. > :58:41.you and trounced Labour and we will do the same next year. Lest we
:58:42. > :58:47.forget, Ed Miliband had a bht of a mayor of the conference, forgetting
:58:48. > :58:52.the deficit, forgetting to lention immigration, do people really see
:58:53. > :58:58.him as the next Prime Minister? He has apologised for that but at least
:58:59. > :59:05.he hasn't lost two MPs! Style over substance. I think we will rest that
:59:06. > :59:13.one there. What is interestdd me about this session is we have seen
:59:14. > :59:15.Amjad continually playing p`rty politics, attacking the othdr
:59:16. > :59:21.parties and having nothing to say about what UKIP stands for. We know
:59:22. > :59:26.they stand for charging to see a GP, they are supposed to stand `gainst
:59:27. > :59:32.immigration but Amjad himself was fined for employing immigrants. What
:59:33. > :59:37.do they stand for? We just don't know. At least with Labour, you will
:59:38. > :59:45.get Labour values. What we stand for is clear. People can make a choice
:59:46. > :59:50.next year. Don't list your whole manifesto, please. Here we go again,
:59:51. > :00:00.play the man not the ball. They can't attack us on policies. They
:00:01. > :00:06.will attack the man. We the national national health from people like
:00:07. > :00:14.you, did you... John Hayes, Howard does Cameron get your conference
:00:15. > :00:20.back on track? I was inviting the other guest to tell us about the tax
:00:21. > :00:26.on ladies clothes and handb`gs that Nigel Farage seems to believe in,
:00:27. > :00:31.but this is the setting out our vision for the future, securing a
:00:32. > :00:35.better future for our country based on sound government, a strong
:00:36. > :00:39.economy. The long`term economic plan... We will have to leave it
:00:40. > :00:40.there. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back
:00:41. > :01:00.to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with
:01:01. > :01:05.the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come
:01:06. > :01:12.here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in
:01:13. > :01:17.their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked
:01:18. > :01:23.out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets
:01:24. > :01:28.under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an
:01:29. > :01:34.article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the
:01:35. > :01:41.heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as
:01:42. > :01:46.a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running
:01:47. > :01:50.for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a
:01:51. > :01:55.five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about
:01:56. > :02:01.campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous
:02:02. > :02:08.Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong
:02:09. > :02:24.turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to
:02:25. > :02:34.UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do
:02:35. > :02:52.you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?
:02:53. > :03:11.Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many
:03:12. > :03:20.more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any
:03:21. > :03:23.more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant
:03:24. > :03:29.sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,
:03:30. > :03:33.namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I
:03:34. > :03:41.think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because
:03:42. > :03:45.that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be
:03:46. > :03:58.a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there
:03:59. > :04:03.could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two
:04:04. > :04:08.labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.
:04:09. > :04:15.How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after
:04:16. > :04:18.he had a really bad performance that his television performance was
:04:19. > :04:23.suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed
:04:24. > :04:27.Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches
:04:28. > :04:30.is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing
:04:31. > :04:35.for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore
:04:36. > :04:38.failed the Prime Minister test. I think the real problem for him was
:04:39. > :04:42.forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues
:04:43. > :04:48.which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and
:04:49. > :04:52.inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if
:04:53. > :04:55.you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really
:04:56. > :05:01.not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.
:05:02. > :05:07.Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the
:05:08. > :05:10.nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by
:05:11. > :05:16.heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn
:05:17. > :05:19.70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to
:05:20. > :05:24.sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just
:05:25. > :05:28.beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,
:05:29. > :05:32.but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked
:05:33. > :05:36.once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the
:05:37. > :05:39.derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,
:05:40. > :05:46.they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the
:05:47. > :05:51.omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing
:05:52. > :05:55.seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is
:05:56. > :06:03.almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour
:06:04. > :06:09.and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.
:06:10. > :06:12.You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the
:06:13. > :06:17.borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,
:06:18. > :06:21.because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference
:06:22. > :06:26.will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's
:06:27. > :06:29.speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more
:06:30. > :06:34.global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at
:06:35. > :06:42.this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up
:06:43. > :06:47.at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to
:06:48. > :06:55.change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they
:06:56. > :06:59.would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in
:07:00. > :07:04.double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his
:07:05. > :07:08.party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,
:07:09. > :07:12.come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It
:07:13. > :07:18.will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.
:07:19. > :07:24.When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,
:07:25. > :07:27.with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in
:07:28. > :07:32.the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I
:07:33. > :07:38.may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless
:07:39. > :07:41.this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was
:07:42. > :07:45.talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate
:07:46. > :07:48.because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the
:07:49. > :07:52.deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be
:07:53. > :07:56.really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the
:07:57. > :08:00.kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,
:08:01. > :08:04.Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat
:08:05. > :08:09.and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think
:08:10. > :08:14.today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to
:08:15. > :08:17.say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It
:08:18. > :08:23.is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party
:08:24. > :08:29.somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.
:08:30. > :08:34.But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,
:08:35. > :08:40.for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight
:08:41. > :08:48.for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do
:08:49. > :08:59.not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold
:09:00. > :09:06.on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was
:09:07. > :09:10.going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.
:09:11. > :09:16.But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One
:09:17. > :09:21.problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at
:09:22. > :09:23.economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people
:09:24. > :09:29.love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about
:09:30. > :09:33.relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will
:09:34. > :09:38.be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the
:09:39. > :09:40.conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable
:09:41. > :09:45.is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the
:09:46. > :09:50.Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay
:09:51. > :09:55.in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party
:09:56. > :10:01.to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we
:10:02. > :10:04.are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and
:10:05. > :10:09.people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will
:10:10. > :10:15.not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is
:10:16. > :10:22.happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where
:10:23. > :10:28.the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere
:10:29. > :10:32.near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:33. > :10:37.win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,
:10:38. > :10:41.it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in
:10:42. > :10:46.a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with
:10:47. > :10:51.cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister
:10:52. > :10:55.more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the
:10:56. > :10:58.gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his
:10:59. > :11:02.rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron
:11:03. > :11:15.Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I
:11:16. > :11:19.hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far
:11:20. > :11:23.with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I
:11:24. > :11:28.know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a
:11:29. > :11:31.wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are
:11:32. > :11:37.worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about
:11:38. > :11:39.the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the
:11:40. > :11:43.economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet
:11:44. > :11:48.there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.
:11:49. > :11:56.They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has
:11:57. > :12:04.to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of
:12:05. > :12:08.the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does
:12:09. > :12:13.not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him
:12:14. > :12:17.do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of
:12:18. > :12:26.driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice
:12:27. > :12:29.people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically
:12:30. > :12:35.quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is
:12:36. > :12:40.himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want
:12:41. > :12:42.to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do
:12:43. > :12:47.not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from
:12:48. > :12:52.the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,
:12:53. > :12:58.Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the
:12:59. > :13:01.nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get
:13:02. > :13:05.into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only
:13:06. > :13:10.win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All
:13:11. > :13:19.teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not
:13:20. > :13:24.think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think
:13:25. > :13:29.this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we
:13:30. > :13:35.can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not
:13:36. > :13:39.buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right
:13:40. > :13:43.today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.
:13:44. > :13:48.We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.
:13:49. > :13:52.I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour
:13:53. > :13:55.conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it
:13:56. > :14:24.is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in
:14:25. > :14:39.sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it
:14:40. > :14:42.with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,
:14:43. > :14:45.but it's too late! of statutory press regulation in
:14:46. > :14:57.sponge cake may be a bridge too far.