:00:33. > :00:39.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:40. > :00:41.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:42. > :00:48.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:49. > :00:50.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:51. > :00:53.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:54. > :00:59.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:00. > :01:02.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:03. > :01:13.here in Yorkshire and Lincoln, if I from this key clash?
:01:14. > :01:19.here in Yorkshire and Lincoln, if I do thought from Ukip. We ard the
:01:20. > :01:20.Rocky Balboa of politics. Wd always get back up
:01:21. > :01:21.world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the
:01:22. > :01:26.squalor? And with me - as always -
:01:27. > :01:29.the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,
:01:30. > :01:32.Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job
:01:33. > :01:42.a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then
:01:43. > :01:47.quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party
:01:48. > :01:52.is at "breaking point". This morning, the former
:01:53. > :01:59.Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be
:02:00. > :02:01.running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard
:02:02. > :02:07.about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps
:02:08. > :02:09.delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely
:02:10. > :02:12.sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have
:02:13. > :02:16.more than enough signatures on the nomination form already
:02:17. > :02:19.to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people
:02:20. > :02:23.signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged
:02:24. > :02:28.with letters in support. I would not be doing this
:02:29. > :02:32.if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members
:02:33. > :02:35.are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was
:02:36. > :02:43.Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him
:02:44. > :02:46.as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -
:02:47. > :02:59.Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm
:03:00. > :03:04.going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge
:03:05. > :03:08.support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the
:03:09. > :03:13.party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I
:03:14. > :03:18.want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not
:03:19. > :03:22.going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at
:03:23. > :03:33.the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to
:03:34. > :03:35.step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means
:03:36. > :03:38.it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history
:03:39. > :03:45.know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can
:03:46. > :03:49.disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What
:03:50. > :03:55.happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that
:03:56. > :03:59.we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions
:04:00. > :04:03.together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure
:04:04. > :04:08.and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand
:04:09. > :04:13.last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life
:04:14. > :04:17.travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than
:04:18. > :04:23.anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt
:04:24. > :04:27.that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next
:04:28. > :04:31.generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for
:04:32. > :04:35.someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party
:04:36. > :04:40.inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together You
:04:41. > :04:47.told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take
:04:48. > :04:56.on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and
:04:57. > :05:00.friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis and
:05:01. > :05:07.I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the
:05:08. > :05:13.open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is
:05:14. > :05:18.moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be
:05:19. > :05:23.better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate I
:05:24. > :05:27.thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political
:05:28. > :05:31.parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.
:05:32. > :05:36.I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well
:05:37. > :05:42.with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party
:05:43. > :05:47.together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is
:05:48. > :05:53.supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able
:05:54. > :05:57.to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After
:05:58. > :06:02.November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the
:06:03. > :06:11.past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has
:06:12. > :06:13.before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some
:06:14. > :06:19.of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip
:06:20. > :06:24.these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not
:06:25. > :06:29.invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that
:06:30. > :06:35.will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit
:06:36. > :06:38.really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class
:06:39. > :06:43.communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe
:06:44. > :06:47.Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,
:06:48. > :06:52.would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in
:06:53. > :06:56.the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that
:06:57. > :07:01.mistake. There's working class communities right across the country
:07:02. > :07:13.is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just
:07:14. > :07:17.as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and
:07:18. > :07:19.southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into
:07:20. > :07:22.these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I
:07:23. > :07:28.intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a
:07:29. > :07:35.good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A
:07:36. > :07:40.bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have
:07:41. > :07:45.to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our
:07:46. > :07:49.branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've
:07:50. > :07:55.got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the
:07:56. > :07:59.only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel
:08:00. > :08:04.Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see
:08:05. > :08:08.what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom
:08:09. > :08:12.and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be
:08:13. > :08:18.compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't
:08:19. > :08:23.know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association
:08:24. > :08:28.with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?
:08:29. > :08:31.Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything
:08:32. > :08:38.about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed
:08:39. > :08:42.Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the
:08:43. > :08:47.American election, because I think the two candidates are quite
:08:48. > :08:52.appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of
:08:53. > :08:58.your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring
:08:59. > :09:04.that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.
:09:05. > :09:08.Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can
:09:09. > :09:12.move forward. If we don't unify Ukip will not be around for much
:09:13. > :09:15.longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.
:09:16. > :09:18.We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's
:09:19. > :09:20.new leader will be - the winner will be announced
:09:21. > :09:30.Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between
:09:31. > :09:34.the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot
:09:35. > :09:41.stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to
:09:42. > :09:51.say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another
:09:52. > :10:00.candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British
:10:01. > :10:07.politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news
:10:08. > :10:13.for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?
:10:14. > :10:16.It is. I think the personality difference and presentational
:10:17. > :10:21.difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative
:10:22. > :10:25.county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would
:10:26. > :10:32.probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At
:10:33. > :10:45.the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily
:10:46. > :10:51.between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made
:10:52. > :10:54.inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they
:10:55. > :11:06.fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip
:11:07. > :11:11.have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at
:11:12. > :11:17.least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will
:11:18. > :11:21.happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the
:11:22. > :11:26.unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this
:11:27. > :11:31.morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no
:11:32. > :11:36.point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any
:11:37. > :11:41.longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes
:11:42. > :11:46.of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two
:11:47. > :11:51.years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who
:11:52. > :11:53.will sum that up the best. We shall see.
:11:54. > :11:56.In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq
:11:57. > :11:58.and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.
:11:59. > :12:01.Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',
:12:02. > :12:03.or an Islamic state, on the territories it
:12:04. > :12:12.This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters
:12:13. > :12:17.Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault
:12:18. > :12:35.Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.
:12:36. > :12:40.They destroy it before it destroys them.
:12:41. > :12:43.These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,
:12:44. > :12:48.the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.
:12:49. > :12:52.Controlling the city of around 2 million people means
:12:53. > :12:56.that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.
:12:57. > :13:00.This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base
:13:01. > :13:04.you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency
:13:05. > :13:09.movement in the fabric of another society.
:13:10. > :13:12.It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq
:13:13. > :13:16.since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort
:13:17. > :13:22.Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.
:13:23. > :13:26.Heading to Mosul from the south the elite troops of the Iraqi army.
:13:27. > :13:28.Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied
:13:29. > :13:35.From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,
:13:36. > :13:41.Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters
:13:42. > :13:44.who have been accused of human rights abuses.
:13:45. > :13:47.British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided
:13:48. > :13:54.in by British personnel on the ground.
:13:55. > :13:57.To the North West, a corridor has been left for some
:13:58. > :14:00.of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route
:14:01. > :14:03.which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.
:14:04. > :14:05.We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place
:14:06. > :14:07.in the outlying villages and there have been some
:14:08. > :14:11.successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.
:14:12. > :14:13.And the real question will be when the attackers get
:14:14. > :14:17.towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?
:14:18. > :14:25.It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.
:14:26. > :14:29.IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites
:14:30. > :14:31.in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.
:14:32. > :14:34.The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families
:14:35. > :14:36.have been rounded up as potential human shields.
:14:37. > :14:41.The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?
:14:42. > :14:43.The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,
:14:44. > :14:47.some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.
:14:48. > :14:50.They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.
:14:51. > :14:53.They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.
:14:54. > :14:58.The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia
:14:59. > :15:02.militias which have helped to liberate them.
:15:03. > :15:04.ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul
:15:05. > :15:08.If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle
:15:09. > :15:11.East went up in flames and was then carved up,
:15:12. > :15:15.it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.
:15:16. > :15:19.National identity has been cut across by other identities such
:15:20. > :15:30.And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again
:15:31. > :15:36.Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,
:15:37. > :15:39.almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,
:15:40. > :15:42.and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening
:15:43. > :15:45.elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.
:15:46. > :15:48.Big questions, questions that come after the battle.
:15:49. > :15:51.The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.
:15:52. > :16:00.I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.
:16:01. > :16:03.In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two
:16:04. > :16:11.provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.
:16:12. > :16:21.Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces
:16:22. > :16:30.of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain
:16:31. > :16:33.and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we
:16:34. > :16:38.don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure
:16:39. > :16:48.is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few
:16:49. > :16:51.thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly
:16:52. > :16:58.likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the
:16:59. > :17:07.Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they
:17:08. > :17:12.took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to
:17:13. > :17:15.create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi
:17:16. > :17:21.Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.
:17:22. > :17:25.Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental
:17:26. > :17:27.blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is
:17:28. > :17:35.what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that
:17:36. > :17:39.will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary
:17:40. > :17:43.Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi
:17:44. > :17:47.forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of
:17:48. > :17:54.Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which
:17:55. > :17:59.is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we
:18:00. > :18:06.want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.
:18:07. > :18:09.Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the
:18:10. > :18:15.border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of
:18:16. > :18:19.that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the
:18:20. > :18:27.coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is
:18:28. > :18:31.likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street
:18:32. > :18:36.to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we
:18:37. > :18:41.doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is
:18:42. > :18:45.very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone
:18:46. > :18:55.into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps
:18:56. > :19:01.around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, 40
:19:02. > :19:04.million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms
:19:05. > :19:12.of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response
:19:13. > :19:15.budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we
:19:16. > :19:20.are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is
:19:21. > :19:23.that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this
:19:24. > :19:29.assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You
:19:30. > :19:33.are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning
:19:34. > :19:39.since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --
:19:40. > :19:42.planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the
:19:43. > :19:46.appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we
:19:47. > :19:50.need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in
:19:51. > :19:53.place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is
:19:54. > :19:58.continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.
:19:59. > :20:01.The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big
:20:02. > :20:07.exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist
:20:08. > :20:12.magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a
:20:13. > :20:16.unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios it
:20:17. > :20:19.could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out
:20:20. > :20:24.of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is
:20:25. > :20:28.very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and
:20:29. > :20:32.keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring
:20:33. > :20:35.them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been
:20:36. > :20:39.working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we
:20:40. > :20:46.have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have
:20:47. > :20:49.worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their
:20:50. > :20:53.structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have
:20:54. > :20:58.done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the
:20:59. > :21:03.British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming
:21:04. > :21:09.that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt
:21:10. > :21:15.with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be
:21:16. > :21:20.crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need
:21:21. > :21:25.to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as
:21:26. > :21:29.bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by
:21:30. > :21:36.the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is
:21:37. > :21:39.that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they
:21:40. > :21:45.have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is
:21:46. > :21:50.stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making
:21:51. > :21:55.sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is
:21:56. > :22:00.making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK s
:22:01. > :22:05.response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that
:22:06. > :22:10.is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the
:22:11. > :22:14.front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to
:22:15. > :22:17.make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that
:22:18. > :22:25.population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing
:22:26. > :22:29.territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we
:22:30. > :22:35.think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part
:22:36. > :22:39.of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult
:22:40. > :22:45.across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United
:22:46. > :22:52.Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real
:22:53. > :22:55.danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last
:22:56. > :23:01.five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop
:23:02. > :23:06.often it does unexpected things In 2009 its predecessor had been
:23:07. > :23:10.largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it
:23:11. > :23:14.went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it
:23:15. > :23:17.holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it
:23:18. > :23:22.gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else
:23:23. > :23:26.and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They
:23:27. > :23:32.say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a
:23:33. > :23:34.big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we
:23:35. > :23:46.keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say --
:23:47. > :23:50.safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in
:23:51. > :23:57.Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen
:23:58. > :24:00.in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the
:24:01. > :24:02.conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much
:24:03. > :24:07.energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the
:24:08. > :24:12.humanitarian response in place - put so much energy. People will want
:24:13. > :24:15.to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to
:24:16. > :24:19.make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking
:24:20. > :24:22.after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they
:24:23. > :24:28.have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why
:24:29. > :24:32.our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals
:24:33. > :24:39.with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.
:24:40. > :24:46.I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:24:47. > :24:58.Does Labour support British participation in this offensive We
:24:59. > :25:02.fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important
:25:03. > :25:08.move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the
:25:09. > :25:12.government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State
:25:13. > :25:17.this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF
:25:18. > :25:22.pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces
:25:23. > :25:26.on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if
:25:27. > :25:33.you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your
:25:34. > :25:35.leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.
:25:36. > :25:37.What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi
:25:38. > :25:39.government, and currently supported by the British government.
:25:40. > :25:42.I did not support it when it came up.
:25:43. > :25:45.Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most
:25:46. > :25:49.of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we
:25:50. > :25:58.He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been
:25:59. > :26:02.very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have
:26:03. > :26:06.learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt
:26:07. > :26:10.sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the
:26:11. > :26:16.aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was
:26:17. > :26:24.from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told
:26:25. > :26:28.the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air
:26:29. > :26:32.strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in
:26:33. > :26:35.Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face
:26:36. > :26:39.the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.
:26:40. > :26:47.We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it
:26:48. > :26:51.is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic
:26:52. > :26:56.State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is
:26:57. > :27:01.he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the
:27:02. > :27:05.past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,
:27:06. > :27:08.both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also
:27:09. > :27:14.in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you
:27:15. > :27:18.mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress
:27:19. > :27:23.with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do
:27:24. > :27:35.you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to
:27:36. > :27:44.read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the
:27:45. > :27:52.car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems
:27:53. > :27:56.they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to
:27:57. > :28:00.pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have
:28:01. > :28:05.become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer
:28:06. > :28:11.interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to
:28:12. > :28:14.the renewal of Trident? It will We made that commitment in 2007, that
:28:15. > :28:18.is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies
:28:19. > :28:22.and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken
:28:23. > :28:26.democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference
:28:27. > :28:34.and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy
:28:35. > :28:37.Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,
:28:38. > :28:41.but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the
:28:42. > :28:47.international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very
:28:48. > :28:52.clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the
:28:53. > :28:56.next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of
:28:57. > :29:00.Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a
:29:01. > :29:04.very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are
:29:05. > :29:12.reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can t
:29:13. > :29:15.change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues
:29:16. > :29:22.related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can t
:29:23. > :29:26.change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to
:29:27. > :29:31.Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It
:29:32. > :29:33.is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato
:29:34. > :29:38.allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not
:29:39. > :29:42.let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the
:29:43. > :29:46.way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be
:29:47. > :29:51.taking them to international court over this, but we should also be
:29:52. > :29:57.strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do
:29:58. > :30:01.that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to
:30:02. > :30:06.participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop
:30:07. > :30:11.individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look
:30:12. > :30:17.at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.
:30:18. > :30:20.Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.
:30:21. > :30:23.The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest
:30:24. > :30:26.bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.
:30:27. > :30:29.This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,
:30:30. > :30:33.sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.
:30:34. > :30:36.Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end
:30:37. > :30:39.of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation
:30:40. > :30:43.for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.
:30:44. > :30:47.In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -
:30:48. > :30:53.following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy
:30:54. > :30:55.clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.
:30:56. > :30:58.Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured
:30:59. > :31:02.since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,
:31:03. > :31:10.This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement
:31:11. > :31:12.in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening
:31:13. > :31:16.atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.
:31:17. > :31:20.But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,
:31:21. > :31:22.with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,
:31:23. > :31:26.President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian
:31:27. > :31:34.I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,
:31:35. > :31:42.Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.
:31:43. > :31:50.Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this
:31:51. > :31:58.satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the
:31:59. > :32:03.biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge
:32:04. > :32:06.cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea
:32:07. > :32:12.of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been
:32:13. > :32:20.divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about
:32:21. > :32:23.eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They
:32:24. > :32:30.are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part
:32:31. > :32:36.falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and
:32:37. > :32:43.the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of
:32:44. > :32:48.that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in
:32:49. > :32:53.grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all
:32:54. > :32:59.civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised
:33:00. > :33:03.it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the
:33:04. > :33:08.rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it
:33:09. > :33:12.being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of
:33:13. > :33:17.them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't
:33:18. > :33:22.like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to
:33:23. > :33:27.take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's
:33:28. > :33:30.not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved We
:33:31. > :33:34.have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian
:33:35. > :33:44.casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't
:33:45. > :33:47.the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air
:33:48. > :33:50.force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern
:33:51. > :33:58.Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to
:33:59. > :34:04.the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try
:34:05. > :34:08.and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great
:34:09. > :34:13.visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped
:34:14. > :34:20.out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall it
:34:21. > :34:24.would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian
:34:25. > :34:29.allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if
:34:30. > :34:34.Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his
:34:35. > :34:40.UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put
:34:41. > :34:45.President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend
:34:46. > :34:50.that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in
:34:51. > :34:55.between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.
:34:56. > :35:02.They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to
:35:03. > :35:11.have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving
:35:12. > :35:16.aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to
:35:17. > :35:22.have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big
:35:23. > :35:27.naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West
:35:28. > :35:34.is being distracted and divided Europe and America, by elections and
:35:35. > :35:39.so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about
:35:40. > :35:44.that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his
:35:45. > :35:52.maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do
:35:53. > :36:00.take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr
:36:01. > :36:05.Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere
:36:06. > :36:10.of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want
:36:11. > :36:14.the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not
:36:15. > :36:20.just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as
:36:21. > :36:25.important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended
:36:26. > :36:31.fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its
:36:32. > :36:37.message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the
:36:38. > :36:40.West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after
:36:41. > :36:44.the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is
:36:45. > :36:51.strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy It
:36:52. > :36:56.is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price
:36:57. > :37:01.of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to
:37:02. > :37:06.fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how
:37:07. > :37:13.small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It
:37:14. > :37:21.is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years
:37:22. > :37:27.ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?
:37:28. > :37:32.A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a
:37:33. > :37:38.price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting
:37:39. > :37:43.the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which
:37:44. > :37:49.is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and
:37:50. > :37:56.dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.
:37:57. > :38:00.But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are
:38:01. > :38:04.supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2 17,
:38:05. > :38:09.because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for
:38:10. > :38:12.the Russian people. Thank you very much.
:38:13. > :38:26.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:27. > :38:32.Hello, you are watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire and
:38:33. > :38:36.Lincolnshire. Coming up: we are the Rocky Balboa of politics. When we
:38:37. > :38:41.got -- when we get knocked down we get back up. What is next whll you
:38:42. > :38:46.get after a turbulent few wdeks How many times can I get back up again?
:38:47. > :38:51.How bright is the future for our booming tourism industry? Could
:38:52. > :38:53.Brexit move off some of the shine? We will be meeting the new LP for
:38:54. > :38:58.Batley and Spen. Yes, Tracy Brabin will
:38:59. > :39:00.be joining us later. Before then we'll be chatting
:39:01. > :39:02.to Rishi Sunak, the conserv`tive MP for Richmond, and former
:39:03. > :39:12.UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom. While the politicians
:39:13. > :39:17.debate the pros and cons of Brexit in Westminster,
:39:18. > :39:19.industries that traditionally rely on migrant labour are feeling
:39:20. > :39:21.the impact of the uncertainty. Not only is farming
:39:22. > :39:23.affected, but tourism too. It s an industry worth more
:39:24. > :39:25.than ?8 billion to Yorkshird Despite a bumper summer
:39:26. > :39:29.with increasing visitor numbers many businesses are concerndd
:39:30. > :39:32.for the future and how they will be able to recruit staff
:39:33. > :39:34.once we leave the EU. Welcome to sunny Scarborough,
:39:35. > :39:50.where tourists have been a part of the local economy
:39:51. > :39:54.since the 17th century. This summer, with the low
:39:55. > :39:56.exchange rate, many hotels, businesses and other attractions
:39:57. > :39:59.have experienced record Brexit and the drop in the pound has
:40:00. > :40:11.absolutely helped the whole I think together with peopld having
:40:12. > :40:16.a bit of fear now of We ve been here 10 years and we have
:40:17. > :40:20.very few people from abroad, and we ve had a lot
:40:21. > :40:22.of Europeans this year. They have probably been makhng
:40:23. > :40:25.the most of the weak pound This July saw its highest
:40:26. > :40:32.ever number of overseas Tourism is big business
:40:33. > :40:36.in our region. It is worth more than ?8 billion
:40:37. > :40:42.across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. Kerry isn't the only one
:40:43. > :40:46.experiencing a bit of a bool. Americans are particularly
:40:47. > :40:48.interested in Magna Carta and all the rest of it,
:40:49. > :40:51.so we do get a lot of peopld from overseas, but a lot of people
:40:52. > :40:55.now from the rest of the cotntry. If you are only getting one euro
:40:56. > :41:02.to your pound, you think, than a quarter of a million people
:41:03. > :41:08.in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, but it s estimated up to half
:41:09. > :41:11.the workers in some businesses come Which has raised questions
:41:12. > :41:15.about recruitment after Brexit. Many hospitality businesses rely
:41:16. > :41:18.upon seasonal labour from Etrope and from other parts of the world,
:41:19. > :41:21.and clearly they want clarity as to what the rules will bd
:41:22. > :41:24.and what status those Will they still be able to work
:41:25. > :41:29.in their businesses going forwards? I d probably say about 30 or 40
:41:30. > :41:35.percent of our team. Certainly, as a casual basis
:41:36. > :41:38.for restaurant and bar, and certainly housekeeping do rely
:41:39. > :41:42.on that use of European staff. I'm a qualified accountant
:41:43. > :41:44.back in Hungary. I came to England 13 years `go
:41:45. > :41:48.to look for new opportunitids. I kind of understand British people,
:41:49. > :41:54.why they vote yes to Brexht. But I do understand
:41:55. > :41:56.the other side as well. I just hope there s going to be
:41:57. > :42:00.an easier way for me Otherwise I think the country
:42:01. > :42:07.is going to collapse because there are so many pdople
:42:08. > :42:09.from Eastern Europe working I think my concern is
:42:10. > :42:17.the uncertainty that is there now, The change in the way
:42:18. > :42:23.in which people travel and learn and plan for the next two,
:42:24. > :42:25.three, four, five years. And because of that,
:42:26. > :42:27.people will, I think, Therefore there will be a g`p,
:42:28. > :42:32.I think, and a blip in that process of travel, of learning
:42:33. > :42:39.and recruitment in the procdss. Tourism in our region has previously
:42:40. > :42:42.had to deal with a rise And, of course, the unpredictably
:42:43. > :42:46.of the great British weather. How will the uncertainty
:42:47. > :43:04.of post-referendum Britain play out? Reporting error from Sally
:43:05. > :43:09.Scarborough. Factories and businesses right to be worrhed about
:43:10. > :43:12.the possible shortage of workers postbag is that? As a Yorkshire MP,
:43:13. > :43:16.I am enormously proud of thd success we have had attracting tourhsts not
:43:17. > :43:21.just from the UK but from around the world. I don't think they h`ve to be
:43:22. > :43:24.worried. There is some uncertainty today, but the Prime Ministdr has
:43:25. > :43:28.been very clear that our expectation and hope is that everyone who is
:43:29. > :43:32.already here, already an EU citizen, will be able to stay. I think most
:43:33. > :43:36.of them will already have the legal right to stay anyway by the time we
:43:37. > :43:41.leave. I think on that scord it should be no trouble. I think the
:43:42. > :43:43.other thing to note is that, of course, people voted to havd some
:43:44. > :43:48.control of immigration, which is sensible. I don't think people voted
:43:49. > :43:52.for an end to all immigration. I think people need we -- people
:43:53. > :43:56.realise we need some immigr`tion, they just want some control of it.
:43:57. > :44:00.That businesses have to plan for the future. At the moment, they don t
:44:01. > :44:05.know what the immigration policy is to be. We have just started this
:44:06. > :44:09.process. We are not going to be leaving for 2.5 years from where we
:44:10. > :44:14.are today. There is plenty of time to do things to come out. Wd are
:44:15. > :44:17.about to start our negotiathons with our European partners early next
:44:18. > :44:21.year. I'm sure in time we whll start to disclose those plans. I think
:44:22. > :44:27.people will find is nothing to worry about. Both people who are `lready
:44:28. > :44:31.here and also going forward. If the tourism industry relies on 40% of EU
:44:32. > :44:36.workers working in that indtstry, do you accept they will struggle? After
:44:37. > :44:45.Brexiteer does workers go home? First of all, I was the father of
:44:46. > :44:49.Yorkshire Brexit. I have never heard anyone who suggests that we should
:44:50. > :44:52.send anyone home he lives in gainful employment. I don't know anxbody who
:44:53. > :44:58.regard that as being fair or just. Nobody. That certainly isn't going
:44:59. > :45:02.to happen. Anybody who is in employment at the moment, g`inful
:45:03. > :45:05.employment, or stay. Where we do have a problem, which I don't think
:45:06. > :45:09.is being properly addressed, is if we have, broadly speaking, 20% youth
:45:10. > :45:15.unemployment in the North of England, which we do, we should be
:45:16. > :45:19.starting, the point we should be making is that training these people
:45:20. > :45:24.up, training our own youngsters to take these jobs, most of whhch are
:45:25. > :45:28.semiskilled, so what we need is to look at our education policx, our
:45:29. > :45:33.welfare policy, and our work ethos in our youngsters. So we can fill
:45:34. > :45:37.these things ourselves. Yes, let's keep the people who have cole in to
:45:38. > :45:40.help us with our industries, and very good they are, but let's make
:45:41. > :45:44.sure we can start getting otr own youngsters into some of these jobs.
:45:45. > :45:49.I think you make a very important points. We have great talent in this
:45:50. > :45:52.country and young people who should be trained. I'm delighted wd are
:45:53. > :45:56.investing more in apprenticdships, specifically those which arhsen
:45:57. > :45:59.where some of the leading elployers have created a new standard for
:46:00. > :46:03.apprenticeships and the govdrnment has created a fax -- flexible
:46:04. > :46:09.apprenticeship and tourism `re people can take longer to fhnish
:46:10. > :46:13.because it is seasonal. If that was working, why are so many businesses
:46:14. > :46:17.and Sderot Verity, chief exdcutive of up to Yorkshire, so worrhed about
:46:18. > :46:22.this, the possible labour shortage after Brexit? The process h`s just
:46:23. > :46:26.started. The investment in this new apprenticeship started just before
:46:27. > :46:30.Brexit. The fruits of that we will start to see now. I will be more
:46:31. > :46:34.focused on it which I think is a good thing. In terms of the numbers,
:46:35. > :46:37.numbers and the reports may be a little misleading. The Office for
:46:38. > :46:42.National Statistics, they stggested that around 10% of employment in
:46:43. > :46:45.hospitality and food servicds and accommodation relates to non-British
:46:46. > :46:50.citizens. It's a much smalldr figure than the number in your reports Of
:46:51. > :46:54.those 10%, some will be non,EU immigrants. They are not affected by
:46:55. > :46:57.Brexit. The scale of what wd are talking about is probably slaller
:46:58. > :47:02.than the particular businesses we might be seeing in the report. Say
:47:03. > :47:05.to the gentleman we saw in that report he was from Hungary, a
:47:06. > :47:12.trained accountants, now working as a housekeeper on who feels he isn't
:47:13. > :47:15.ready well, in Brexit Britahn? I got the impression he has been here for
:47:16. > :47:19.13 years so we must be feelhng relatively comfortable, othdrwise he
:47:20. > :47:23.would have gone back to Hungary An articulate guy, there are loads of
:47:24. > :47:28.them. I am married to a Polhsh refugee myself. They're well, they
:47:29. > :47:32.worked very hard. I don't think there is a problem. He doesn't have
:47:33. > :47:37.a problem. Nobody I know on either side of the parties thinks he should
:47:38. > :47:42.go. The government is looking at a visa system for EU workers. How do
:47:43. > :47:46.you differentiate between what is a skilled worker and what is `n
:47:47. > :47:50.unskilled worker? This is going to be the pinch points. Is a chef a
:47:51. > :47:56.skilled worker? How do you say, you are welcome to come here, you were
:47:57. > :48:00.not. I think it is not about well come and unwelcome. It's not about
:48:01. > :48:03.hostility. There is a criteria based on skills that is not something that
:48:04. > :48:07.is on a controversial. That's something that pretty much dvery
:48:08. > :48:10.other country in the world does But is also what we do today for every
:48:11. > :48:14.country that is not in the Duropean Union. Every country has a system of
:48:15. > :48:18.immigration were they look `t the needs of businesses, why do we need
:48:19. > :48:23.to get people, what kinds of things ought we to be training people to do
:48:24. > :48:26.ourselves, or do we need extra help? They design a system to attract
:48:27. > :48:28.those people and make sure we are in control of the numbers. Let's move
:48:29. > :48:31.It's been a busy few weeks for UKIP - from a short lived
:48:32. > :48:33.leader to an altercation the European Parliament,
:48:34. > :48:36.and claims the party is in ` death spiral by the man once tippdd
:48:37. > :48:44.Supporters have been telling James Vincent.
:48:45. > :48:57.Diane James! It has been a bit of the month for Ukip. Ironically in
:48:58. > :49:01.the year were they got everxthing they ever wanted. The 16th of
:49:02. > :49:08.September, Diane James was dlected leader and replaces Nigel F`rage. I
:49:09. > :49:15.ask you, support me, work whth me, when with me. That didn't h`ppen.
:49:16. > :49:19.Quicker than you can get rid of an England manager, she was gone. 8
:49:20. > :49:25.days in the job. Her nomination papers show some matter which means
:49:26. > :49:32.an agreement made under durdss. The 3rd of October, Nigel Faragd back in
:49:33. > :49:38.charge to steady the ship. Turmoil in Ukip. The next day, the
:49:39. > :49:42.altercation. Yorkshire MEP Like Cogan and Steven Woolfe. Mr will
:49:43. > :49:46.spent three days in hospital. Mike Cogan says he didn't throw ` punch.
:49:47. > :49:53.debates. This went a step ftrther debates. This went a step ftrther
:49:54. > :49:58.from that. It was a step too far Steven Woolfe. The mounted to be the
:49:59. > :50:02.next leader of Ukip off. My future in Ukip is very clear, therd is
:50:03. > :50:09.none. I hope Ukip can recovdr, I just fear they are in a spiral
:50:10. > :50:13.downwards. Chaos on the top deck of the party, but Ukip has alw`ys been
:50:14. > :50:17.an organisation driven by its grassroots. Our campaigners here in
:50:18. > :50:21.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire ,- are they worried what will happdn? We
:50:22. > :50:26.had a rocky Balboa of polithcs. Every time we get knocked down, we
:50:27. > :50:30.get back up again. It's not really, it's not great, but it is good
:50:31. > :50:33.entertainment. We are a real party of real people, not career
:50:34. > :50:36.politicians who have been polished within an inch of our lives to say
:50:37. > :50:42.one thing in front of the c`meras and a different thing behind people
:50:43. > :50:46.byes backs. We say what we think. We have Brexit, what we campaign for 20
:50:47. > :50:50.odd years. Now it is time to move on. We have got to prove now but we
:50:51. > :50:56.are a political party. I thhnk we have proven that but we havd got to
:50:57. > :51:01.carry on and show that we are a credible little party. One thing we
:51:02. > :51:04.are very much united in is to get us out of Europe by properly. Not
:51:05. > :51:07.softly, softly, the way the government is at the moment, where
:51:08. > :51:13.they might reduce immigration little bit. But not truly get us ott. That
:51:14. > :51:18.is what we are standing for. We are all united behind that. Any leader
:51:19. > :51:24.will have to be passionate `bout that to succeed. So we need to go
:51:25. > :51:27.back past the resignations, the altercations, the divisions, to the
:51:28. > :51:34.most important data the party when we voted to leave the EU. Job done
:51:35. > :51:40.for the UK Independence party. The key is in the name. The fundamental
:51:41. > :51:46.question, what do they do now? Fax, everybody!
:51:47. > :51:51.Is a Steven Woolfe right whdn he says that Ukip now is locked in a
:51:52. > :51:57.death spiral? Weather-mac I wish I had a penny for every time H heard
:51:58. > :52:00.that Ukip was on the skids. No, quite right in that clip whhch very
:52:01. > :52:06.strongly made a point that the strength in Ukip is in its
:52:07. > :52:12.grassroots. It's most extraordinary as a grassroots party. They're out
:52:13. > :52:16.there every day. It's extraordinary. They had done very fairly bx the
:52:17. > :52:23.hierarchy. I think perhaps lions led by donkeys might perhaps take that
:52:24. > :52:26.particular phrase. It isn't in a death spiral. That is still plenty
:52:27. > :52:32.to do, because there are a few people saying, we have had `
:52:33. > :52:40.referendum. We could be two years away from coming out. So Ukhp, until
:52:41. > :52:45.we are out, until we are out, Ukip has a very real job to do. How does
:52:46. > :52:50.Ukip rebrand itself after that? I think that his two years, wd agree
:52:51. > :52:54.it is two years down the ro`d, then we can worry about policy after
:52:55. > :53:00.that. There is a strong centre left wing in Ukip. There is a much
:53:01. > :53:03.smaller classical liberal whng, if you will. That's basically how it is
:53:04. > :53:08.split policy wise. I would suggest that what Ukip needs to do hs focus
:53:09. > :53:13.on the next two years of no schism, get a leader, get the new ldader who
:53:14. > :53:20.can bring all, all shades of opinion together in Ukip. Ukip can then be
:53:21. > :53:25.on watch until Brexit reallx happens. And then, in two ydars
:53:26. > :53:28.they can sit down and thrash out where they want to be in thd
:53:29. > :53:33.clinical spectrum, which thdy haven't done yet. Nobody knows quite
:53:34. > :53:38.where it fits in. Do you accept that point? There is a void perh`ps in
:53:39. > :53:40.British politics for a Libertarian party that believes in small
:53:41. > :53:44.government, because Theresa May whatever you think of her, gives to
:53:45. > :53:49.believe that government is the solution and not the problel? I
:53:50. > :53:52.think you saw it in the clip, the gentleman who said it is not seemly,
:53:53. > :53:56.not great but it is good entertainment. I think that is not
:53:57. > :53:59.what people want from the Glasgow party. They don't want
:54:00. > :54:02.entertainment. We have important decisions were our country. I think
:54:03. > :54:08.people are looking for a strong confident leadership. I agrde that
:54:09. > :54:13.people want to make sure we deliver on exit and make a proper stccess of
:54:14. > :54:16.it. Injuries may you have mx ministry was committed to that
:54:17. > :54:21.cause. She is providing somd very strong leadership from the get go.
:54:22. > :54:26.-- in Theresa May you have ` strong leader. People sometimes fedl the
:54:27. > :54:35.system might not work for them and want to make sure it does. She is
:54:36. > :54:39.firmly focused on that. Timd will tell, but the party were once part
:54:40. > :54:44.of is in a leadership contest now. Who do you support? I think there is
:54:45. > :54:48.only one person that can brhng the party together, because everybody
:54:49. > :54:52.else, time though they may be, come from one of the schisms, if you
:54:53. > :54:58.will. Dan Evans, who is part of this faction. You have other people who
:54:59. > :55:03.are part of a faction. -- Stzanne Evans. You need someone who everyone
:55:04. > :55:07.can support and not go off `nd a half and resign. The only pdrson who
:55:08. > :55:10.can do that is Paul Nuttall, who had a tremendous run as party chairman.
:55:11. > :55:14.A lot of the problems in Ukhp, because there have been no ,- has
:55:15. > :55:17.been no serious party chairlan for the last ten years. You cannot run a
:55:18. > :55:23.party without a decent chairman Paul Nuttall is a very popular, very
:55:24. > :55:26.well read and very likeable in. He is the only man can do it. H'm sure
:55:27. > :55:29.he will be glad of your endorsement. Here's David Tracz with a round up
:55:30. > :55:46.of some of the week's Political differences have been put
:55:47. > :55:53.aside in the campaign to stop AV services being moved from
:55:54. > :55:56.Huddersfield to Halifax. Local MPs say health Minister Jeremy Hunt
:55:57. > :56:01.should visit to see for himself while the plans agreed by hdalth
:56:02. > :56:07.bosses this week our -- or wrong. Labour's Yvette Cooper has ` new
:56:08. > :56:10.powerful job. The MP is the new chair of the Home Affairs Sdlect
:56:11. > :56:16.Committee. She replaces Keith Vaz. She leaves MP Hilary Benn in charge
:56:17. > :56:20.of the new Brexit committee. There is a devolution divide betwden local
:56:21. > :56:25.and national politicians ovdr elected Mayor 's. J County Council
:56:26. > :56:28.has voted against. Greater ligature city region said they don't want to
:56:29. > :56:34.Mayor, something the governlent except -- insists is part of the
:56:35. > :56:37.deal. The new Batley and Spdn MPS Tracy Braden, former actress and now
:56:38. > :56:43.politician. She took 86% of the vote but only one quarter of the people
:56:44. > :56:50.in the constituency but the polls. Tracey Braden joins us now. Welcome.
:56:51. > :56:53.Low thank you. Graduations on your by-election victory. It all came
:56:54. > :57:00.about due to the tragic events in the summer. Which you still have
:57:01. > :57:05.hopes to be an MP had the Jo Cox tragedy not happened? All mx life I
:57:06. > :57:10.have been a campaign as an `ctivist. Working per trade union rights
:57:11. > :57:15.within equity, my union, and the writers Guild. I would cert`inly
:57:16. > :57:18.continue that. I was obviously. . The circumstances were such that
:57:19. > :57:22.when the Labour Party asked me to think about it, I have to think very
:57:23. > :57:27.carefully. But also, campaigning with Joe and 2015 and against the
:57:28. > :57:32.closures of libraries map she did say, Tracey, you should think about
:57:33. > :57:39.maybe becoming an MP. When she was murders and there was a vactum, I
:57:40. > :57:45.couldn't walk away from it. And it is my hometown. I am a local girl.
:57:46. > :57:50.The committee asked me to do it and I couldn't walk away. Does ht bother
:57:51. > :57:53.you that the turnout was down to 25%? A lot of the supporters of the
:57:54. > :57:59.other main Westminster parthes seem to have stayed at home. It was a wet
:58:00. > :58:04.Thursday in October. What rdally matters is that it is 86%. Ht is a
:58:05. > :58:07.relief rate mandate. There `re lots of people I met on the doorstep you
:58:08. > :58:13.don't normally votes, the normally vote Conservative and said, given
:58:14. > :58:16.the circumstances that you have got the far right standing. What was a
:58:17. > :58:20.tragedy for us they're seeing as some sort of opportunity to get the
:58:21. > :58:23.division now better. We are actually going to vote for you. I was rarely
:58:24. > :58:28.heartened by that. You might be right that the numbers are 20 would
:58:29. > :58:31.see in a General Election, but you have got several parties knocking on
:58:32. > :58:37.doors and getting people out. I m ready proud that the people of
:58:38. > :58:43.Batley and Spen have chosen me to unite the community and movd
:58:44. > :58:48.forward. You are relatively new MP. What can Tracey expect the new MP at
:58:49. > :58:51.Westminster? I think probably a bit special and a bit different for
:58:52. > :58:57.Tracey because she will comd in not quite on her own, that therd will be
:58:58. > :59:02.a lot of focus and attention on her when she swears then on Monday. That
:59:03. > :59:06.will be fantastic. She is following in the footsteps of someone who
:59:07. > :59:10.everyone knows. I came behind William Hague. Tracy is following
:59:11. > :59:13.behind Jo Cox. I think an extra sense of response ability to do your
:59:14. > :59:20.job that much better, when xou follow someone who has set such a
:59:21. > :59:24.high bar. You have got to bd yourself, is what I would s`y. You
:59:25. > :59:29.can't be Joe, I can't be William. Be yourself and I'm sure you whll get
:59:30. > :59:33.off to a cracking start. Wh`t advice would you give to somebody starting
:59:34. > :59:37.out in politics? I would sthck to your conviction. Don't let people
:59:38. > :59:40.rock your conviction. There aren't enough conviction politicians
:59:41. > :59:44.around, in my view. Whatever you believe, you stick with it `nd don't
:59:45. > :59:48.be bullied by party whips who have got eight -- you have a good seat
:59:49. > :59:54.and you will do jolly well. My congratulations. You stay whth it.
:59:55. > :59:57.You have a very successful rammer School in your constituency, where
:59:58. > :00:00.Jo Cox went to school. I thhnk you went there as well. Will yot be
:00:01. > :00:08.campaigning to stop more gr`mmar schools? I would say every parent
:00:09. > :00:13.wants the best for their chhld. It is a fine grammar school. I would
:00:14. > :00:17.say that, for some children, that division at a very young agd gives a
:00:18. > :00:23.sense of failure that six of them for the rest of their lives. Both my
:00:24. > :00:26.daughters go to a copper hands of. There is a real cross-section of the
:00:27. > :00:29.community. You have young pdople who will go on to apprenticeships and
:00:30. > :00:35.other young people who will go to Oxbridge. I think it gives xou a
:00:36. > :00:39.real vision of the world's the view that you can be anything at achieve
:00:40. > :00:44.anything. There is nobody rdally clamouring for more secondary
:00:45. > :00:50.modern. We might debate that in detail at a later date. If xou can
:00:51. > :00:56.achieve one thing, what would it be? Slow down the downgrade of Dewsbury
:00:57. > :01:00.Hospital. It all seems that it Huddersfield goes the same way, we
:01:01. > :01:05.are going to be without a dddicated A and it is really creating a lot
:01:06. > :01:12.of unhappiness and stress. @re you part of the biggest sub of ,- and
:01:13. > :01:13.now you were part of the biggest sub of all, Westminster politics. Thank
:01:14. > :01:16.you. Thanks to our guests today,
:01:17. > :01:18.Rishi Sunak, Godfrey Bloom `nd Tracy So, Brexit, airports,
:01:19. > :01:46.Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying
:01:47. > :01:50.there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq
:01:51. > :01:57.now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control
:01:58. > :02:06.a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small
:02:07. > :02:09.area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more
:02:10. > :02:13.dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the
:02:14. > :02:18.Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very
:02:19. > :02:23.interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,
:02:24. > :02:31.and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is
:02:32. > :02:34.about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan You
:02:35. > :02:43.smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to
:02:44. > :02:55.warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in
:02:56. > :03:00.Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean
:03:01. > :03:03.into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,
:03:04. > :03:12.we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right
:03:13. > :03:17.for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions
:03:18. > :03:21.here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as
:03:22. > :03:25.we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages
:03:26. > :03:32.here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at
:03:33. > :03:40.least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical
:03:41. > :03:46.Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the
:03:47. > :03:53.Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so
:03:54. > :03:58.that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even
:03:59. > :04:03.if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that
:04:04. > :04:08.interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory
:04:09. > :04:13.said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some
:04:14. > :04:17.of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of
:04:18. > :04:22.the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour
:04:23. > :04:27.office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm
:04:28. > :04:30.not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get
:04:31. > :04:35.out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She
:04:36. > :04:41.sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should
:04:42. > :04:47.answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we
:04:48. > :04:51.saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be
:04:52. > :04:55.the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the
:04:56. > :04:59.Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give
:05:00. > :05:02.testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.
:05:03. > :05:05.I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that
:05:06. > :05:08.if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 5
:05:09. > :05:11.to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading
:05:12. > :05:12.relationship, market access, including for services,
:05:13. > :05:14.80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,
:05:15. > :05:17.that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek
:05:18. > :05:23.a transitional arrangement with the European Union.
:05:24. > :05:32.If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,
:05:33. > :05:38.would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall
:05:39. > :05:42.back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My
:05:43. > :05:45.understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically
:05:46. > :05:50.include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU
:05:51. > :05:55.would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,
:05:56. > :06:00.and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal
:06:01. > :06:11.negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal
:06:12. > :06:14.negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover
:06:15. > :06:16.it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with
:06:17. > :06:24.Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because
:06:25. > :06:33.of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a
:06:34. > :06:36.free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic
:06:37. > :06:41.Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would
:06:42. > :06:45.be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field
:06:46. > :06:50.agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not
:06:51. > :06:55.be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we
:06:56. > :07:04.are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?
:07:05. > :07:06.It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls
:07:07. > :07:11.is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in
:07:12. > :07:15.public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually
:07:16. > :07:20.trade, the economy, the single market is more important than
:07:21. > :07:25.immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,
:07:26. > :07:29.that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a
:07:30. > :07:33.significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that
:07:34. > :07:45.the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,
:07:46. > :07:47.we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying
:07:48. > :07:55.Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.
:07:56. > :07:58.Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade
:07:59. > :08:03.agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada and
:08:04. > :08:07.therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any
:08:08. > :08:13.deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The
:08:14. > :08:19.question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to
:08:20. > :08:22.the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another
:08:23. > :08:28.unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get
:08:29. > :08:33.this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks
:08:34. > :08:41.and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one
:08:42. > :08:50.gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,
:08:51. > :08:56.including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority
:08:57. > :09:00.of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the
:09:01. > :09:04.transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear
:09:05. > :09:09.Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all
:09:10. > :09:13.over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered
:09:14. > :09:22.about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are
:09:23. > :09:26.talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a
:09:27. > :09:30.trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they
:09:31. > :09:36.are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and
:09:37. > :09:41.stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't
:09:42. > :09:45.always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in
:09:46. > :09:50.tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will
:09:51. > :09:54.see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very
:09:55. > :10:00.badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something
:10:01. > :10:03.like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the
:10:04. > :10:07.Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people
:10:08. > :10:15.traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have
:10:16. > :10:20.vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have
:10:21. > :10:26.been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know
:10:27. > :10:30.how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over
:10:31. > :10:37.what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem
:10:38. > :10:43.for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to
:10:44. > :10:47.survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three
:10:48. > :10:50.months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They
:10:51. > :10:58.didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go It
:10:59. > :11:04.needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because
:11:05. > :11:08.the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but
:11:09. > :11:14.I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until
:11:15. > :11:18.the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When
:11:19. > :11:21.you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion
:11:22. > :11:26.being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early
:11:27. > :11:31.election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she
:11:32. > :11:39.can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to
:11:40. > :11:42.be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just
:11:43. > :11:46.a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough
:11:47. > :11:51.time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the
:11:52. > :11:57.single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a
:11:58. > :12:02.general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the
:12:03. > :12:11.same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate
:12:12. > :12:14.that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will
:12:15. > :12:18.split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get
:12:19. > :12:22.Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a
:12:23. > :12:27.good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow
:12:28. > :12:31.Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.
:12:32. > :12:43.There he is. Where is the hand? That is the
:12:44. > :12:51.worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair
:12:52. > :12:56.of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man
:12:57. > :13:04.most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular
:13:05. > :13:10.culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,
:13:11. > :13:17.bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you
:13:18. > :13:19.don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get
:13:20. > :13:22.it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back
:13:23. > :13:24.with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next
:13:25. > :13:28.Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:29. > :14:02.it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these
:14:03. > :14:04.amazing lives, You're like a...
:14:05. > :14:15.Different person? Delve deeper.
:14:16. > :14:24.Ordinary Lives continues... They have something on me
:14:25. > :14:25.that I can actually remember. They have something on me
:14:26. > :14:30.that I can actually remember. The final chapter between
:14:31. > :14:34.Gibson and Spector.