:00:32. > :00:36.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:37. > :00:40.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",
:00:41. > :00:42.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost
:00:43. > :00:45.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.
:00:46. > :00:56.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules
:00:57. > :01:00.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle
:01:01. > :01:03.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House
:01:04. > :01:06.is making good on his campaign promises.
:01:07. > :01:09.As the Government gets into gear for two years
:01:10. > :01:12.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come
:01:13. > :01:14.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -
:01:15. > :01:24.and the costs and savings once we've left.
:01:25. > :01:40.And with me, as always, a trio of top political
:01:41. > :01:42.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn
:01:43. > :01:46.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,
:01:47. > :01:52.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House
:01:53. > :01:55.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way
:01:56. > :02:00.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,
:02:01. > :02:03.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.
:02:04. > :02:09.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn
:02:10. > :02:12.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted
:02:13. > :02:16.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally
:02:17. > :02:19.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -
:02:20. > :02:21.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy
:02:22. > :02:24.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked
:02:25. > :02:28.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.
:02:29. > :02:32.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,
:02:33. > :02:36.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.
:02:37. > :02:41.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very
:02:42. > :02:44.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,
:02:45. > :02:47.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.
:02:48. > :02:55.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,
:02:56. > :03:00.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,
:03:01. > :03:06.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.
:03:07. > :03:14.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water
:03:15. > :03:18.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a
:03:19. > :03:21.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has
:03:22. > :03:26.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.
:03:27. > :03:30.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite
:03:31. > :03:34.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The
:03:35. > :03:40.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.
:03:41. > :03:44.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere
:03:45. > :03:50.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but
:03:51. > :03:55.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of
:03:56. > :03:59.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would
:04:00. > :04:03.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do
:04:04. > :04:08.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the
:04:09. > :04:15.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on
:04:16. > :04:19.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article
:04:20. > :04:24.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to
:04:25. > :04:28.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the
:04:29. > :04:35.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of
:04:36. > :04:39.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered
:04:40. > :04:43.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is
:04:44. > :04:46.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are
:04:47. > :04:49.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial
:04:50. > :04:53.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called
:04:54. > :04:58.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a
:04:59. > :05:04.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is
:05:05. > :05:08.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for
:05:09. > :05:12.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's
:05:13. > :05:17.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain
:05:18. > :05:23.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting
:05:24. > :05:25.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have
:05:26. > :05:30.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be
:05:31. > :05:34.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The
:05:35. > :05:42.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of
:05:43. > :05:45.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates
:05:46. > :05:47.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved
:05:48. > :05:52.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I
:05:53. > :05:57.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the
:05:58. > :06:03.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not
:06:04. > :06:08.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on
:06:09. > :06:12.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little
:06:13. > :06:16.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say
:06:17. > :06:19.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in
:06:20. > :06:24.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week
:06:25. > :06:29.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.
:06:30. > :06:32.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people
:06:33. > :06:35.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week
:06:36. > :06:38.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -
:06:39. > :06:41.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters
:06:42. > :06:42.are published in the Government's new white paper.
:06:43. > :06:45.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU
:06:46. > :06:48.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing
:06:49. > :06:52.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,
:06:53. > :06:54.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.
:06:55. > :06:57.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.
:06:58. > :07:03.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -
:07:04. > :07:06.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.
:07:07. > :07:08.So, is that what's going to happen now?
:07:09. > :07:11.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them
:07:12. > :07:13.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts
:07:14. > :07:18.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.
:07:19. > :07:24.According to the most recent Treasury figures,
:07:25. > :07:27.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate
:07:28. > :07:29.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.
:07:30. > :07:35.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up
:07:36. > :07:38.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK
:07:39. > :07:40.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.
:07:41. > :07:43.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.
:07:44. > :07:46.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.
:07:47. > :07:52.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier
:07:53. > :07:56.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability
:07:57. > :07:58.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion
:07:59. > :08:04.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely
:08:05. > :08:09.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,
:08:10. > :08:12.but what does the money they are going to argue
:08:13. > :08:17.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's
:08:18. > :08:20.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are
:08:21. > :08:25.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,
:08:26. > :08:28.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten
:08:29. > :08:36.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded
:08:37. > :08:37.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.
:08:38. > :08:45.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros
:08:46. > :08:50.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again
:08:51. > :08:52.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.
:08:53. > :08:55.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.
:08:56. > :08:59.They include things like this building, the European Commission
:09:00. > :09:07.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion
:09:08. > :09:10.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.
:09:11. > :09:13.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.
:09:14. > :09:16.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks
:09:17. > :09:20.because actually they can hold us to ransom.
:09:21. > :09:23.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.
:09:24. > :09:26.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think
:09:27. > :09:29.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong
:09:30. > :09:31.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make
:09:32. > :09:37.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast
:09:38. > :09:42.contributions to the European Union every year will end.
:09:43. > :09:47.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up
:09:48. > :09:52.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.
:09:53. > :09:54.The Europol for example, that's the European crime
:09:55. > :09:59.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.
:10:00. > :10:02.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK
:10:03. > :10:05.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by
:10:06. > :10:14.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.
:10:15. > :10:23.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,
:10:24. > :10:24.trade, universities and, say, climate change,
:10:25. > :10:28.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.
:10:29. > :10:30.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.
:10:31. > :10:32.I wonder if they're going to let me in!
:10:33. > :10:35.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve
:10:36. > :10:38.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part
:10:39. > :10:43.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes
:10:44. > :10:45.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
:10:46. > :10:51.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,
:10:52. > :10:53.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,
:10:54. > :10:55.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent
:10:56. > :11:01.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some
:11:02. > :11:07.contribution for some preferential access to its market?
:11:08. > :11:09.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting
:11:10. > :11:11.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership
:11:12. > :11:20.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,
:11:21. > :11:23.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,
:11:24. > :11:25.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.
:11:26. > :11:28.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified
:11:29. > :11:30.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated
:11:31. > :11:32.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate
:11:33. > :11:39.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat
:11:40. > :11:41.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's
:11:42. > :11:51.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such
:11:52. > :12:08.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!
:12:09. > :12:11.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet
:12:12. > :12:13.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,
:12:14. > :12:16.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.
:12:17. > :12:24.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at
:12:25. > :12:28.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make
:12:29. > :12:30.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we
:12:31. > :12:37.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former
:12:38. > :12:40.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about
:12:41. > :12:45.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I
:12:46. > :12:49.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about
:12:50. > :12:51.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our
:12:52. > :12:56.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce
:12:57. > :13:00.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until
:13:01. > :13:05.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,
:13:06. > :13:11.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come
:13:12. > :13:14.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has
:13:15. > :13:19.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the
:13:20. > :13:21.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.
:13:22. > :13:26.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or
:13:27. > :13:29.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a
:13:30. > :13:32.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the
:13:33. > :13:38.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as
:13:39. > :13:42.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the
:13:43. > :13:47.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in
:13:48. > :13:54.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure
:13:55. > :13:58.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions
:13:59. > :14:00.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations
:14:01. > :14:04.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are
:14:05. > :14:10.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the
:14:11. > :14:15.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a
:14:16. > :14:19.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because
:14:20. > :14:24.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even
:14:25. > :14:29.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa
:14:30. > :14:32.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You
:14:33. > :14:38.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would
:14:39. > :14:44.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour
:14:45. > :14:49.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should
:14:50. > :14:52.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let
:14:53. > :14:56.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few
:14:57. > :14:59.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much
:15:00. > :15:04.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's
:15:05. > :15:08.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red
:15:09. > :15:13.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if
:15:14. > :15:17.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what
:15:18. > :15:21.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't
:15:22. > :15:25.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but
:15:26. > :15:29.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or
:15:30. > :15:35.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the
:15:36. > :15:40.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.
:15:41. > :15:46.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The
:15:47. > :15:50.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms
:15:51. > :15:52.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the
:15:53. > :15:58.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up
:15:59. > :16:02.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be
:16:03. > :16:07.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult
:16:08. > :16:12.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.
:16:13. > :16:16.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this
:16:17. > :16:21.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May
:16:22. > :16:25.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and
:16:26. > :16:33.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.
:16:34. > :16:35.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?
:16:36. > :16:41.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here
:16:42. > :16:47.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite
:16:48. > :16:52.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all
:16:53. > :16:55.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in
:16:56. > :17:01.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in
:17:02. > :17:05.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the
:17:06. > :17:10.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans
:17:11. > :17:15.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At
:17:16. > :17:23.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for
:17:24. > :17:29.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who
:17:30. > :17:33.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is
:17:34. > :17:38.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the
:17:39. > :17:42.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit
:17:43. > :17:49.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want
:17:50. > :17:54.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to
:17:55. > :17:58.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that
:17:59. > :18:03.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is
:18:04. > :18:10.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a
:18:11. > :18:15.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price
:18:16. > :18:20.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime
:18:21. > :18:24.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our
:18:25. > :18:29.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part
:18:30. > :18:32.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other
:18:33. > :18:36.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are
:18:37. > :18:39.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with
:18:40. > :18:42.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing
:18:43. > :18:47.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in
:18:48. > :18:51.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,
:18:52. > :18:56.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a
:18:57. > :19:03.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be
:19:04. > :19:08.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of
:19:09. > :19:13.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and
:19:14. > :19:17.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it
:19:18. > :19:23.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the
:19:24. > :19:27.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having
:19:28. > :19:30.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,
:19:31. > :19:35.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of
:19:36. > :19:39.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish
:19:40. > :19:42.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of
:19:43. > :19:46.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the
:19:47. > :19:50.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we
:19:51. > :19:56.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to
:19:57. > :20:00.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the
:20:01. > :20:03.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic
:20:04. > :20:20.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the
:20:21. > :20:23.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a
:20:24. > :20:25.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it
:20:26. > :20:28.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't
:20:29. > :20:31.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the
:20:32. > :20:35.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up
:20:36. > :20:38.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free
:20:39. > :20:44.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very
:20:45. > :20:48.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from
:20:49. > :20:53.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard
:20:54. > :20:56.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional
:20:57. > :21:02.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We
:21:03. > :21:03.will leave it there. Thank you, both.
:21:04. > :21:06.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants
:21:07. > :21:08.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim
:21:09. > :21:10.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.
:21:11. > :21:13.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it
:21:14. > :21:18.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets
:21:19. > :21:20.criticising what he says was a terrible decision
:21:21. > :21:23.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department
:21:24. > :21:31.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate
:21:32. > :21:42.the ban until it hears the case in full.
:21:43. > :21:46.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant
:21:47. > :21:50.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban
:21:51. > :21:52.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration
:21:53. > :22:05.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the
:22:06. > :22:11.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly
:22:12. > :22:17.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out
:22:18. > :22:26.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias
:22:27. > :22:30.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are
:22:31. > :22:34.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what
:22:35. > :22:40.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order
:22:41. > :22:47.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't
:22:48. > :22:56.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no
:22:57. > :23:01.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,
:23:02. > :23:07.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",
:23:08. > :23:10.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not
:23:11. > :23:16.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the
:23:17. > :23:24.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama
:23:25. > :23:27.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some
:23:28. > :23:32.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that
:23:33. > :23:36.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the
:23:37. > :23:42.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any
:23:43. > :23:48.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?
:23:49. > :23:51.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what
:23:52. > :23:56.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of
:23:57. > :24:01.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in
:24:02. > :24:08.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real
:24:09. > :24:14.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created
:24:15. > :24:18.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want
:24:19. > :24:26.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come
:24:27. > :24:32.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups
:24:33. > :24:38.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with
:24:39. > :24:42.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral
:24:43. > :24:46.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically
:24:47. > :24:51.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish
:24:52. > :24:54.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are
:24:55. > :24:59.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's
:25:00. > :25:03.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's
:25:04. > :25:07.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So
:25:08. > :25:19.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato
:25:20. > :25:25.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the
:25:26. > :25:29.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat
:25:30. > :25:35.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to
:25:36. > :25:41.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the
:25:42. > :25:48.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I
:25:49. > :25:59.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is
:26:00. > :26:03.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump
:26:04. > :26:06.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very
:26:07. > :26:14.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the
:26:15. > :26:19.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up
:26:20. > :26:25.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was
:26:26. > :26:29.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy
:26:30. > :26:34.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even
:26:35. > :26:38.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so
:26:39. > :26:43.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I
:26:44. > :26:46.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to
:26:47. > :26:51.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and
:26:52. > :26:55.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself
:26:56. > :26:59.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European
:27:00. > :27:04.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that
:27:05. > :27:09.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is
:27:10. > :27:14.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral
:27:15. > :27:21.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an
:27:22. > :27:25.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the
:27:26. > :27:30.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to
:27:31. > :27:36.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think
:27:37. > :27:39.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that
:27:40. > :27:44.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into
:27:45. > :27:50.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became
:27:51. > :27:55.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are
:27:56. > :27:58.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about
:27:59. > :28:03.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the
:28:04. > :28:06.interests of the people they represent. Given the
:28:07. > :28:09.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know
:28:10. > :28:14.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime
:28:15. > :28:21.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish
:28:22. > :28:24.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen
:28:25. > :28:30.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may
:28:31. > :28:34.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and
:28:35. > :28:40.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that
:28:41. > :28:45.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about
:28:46. > :28:51.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do
:28:52. > :28:55.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his
:28:56. > :29:02.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are
:29:03. > :29:06.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your
:29:07. > :29:10.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends
:29:11. > :29:16.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and
:29:17. > :29:23.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.
:29:24. > :29:30.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political
:29:31. > :29:32.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed
:29:33. > :29:34.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out
:29:35. > :29:38.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just
:29:39. > :29:41.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense
:29:42. > :29:44.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost
:29:45. > :29:46.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's
:29:47. > :29:48.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce
:29:49. > :29:51.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid
:29:52. > :29:57.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way
:29:58. > :29:59.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures
:30:00. > :30:04.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised
:30:05. > :30:06.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas
:30:07. > :30:10.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be
:30:11. > :30:12.relaxation of building height restrictions,
:30:13. > :30:14.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height
:30:15. > :30:17.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek
:30:18. > :30:23.planning permission. Other elements trialled include
:30:24. > :30:26.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land
:30:27. > :30:28.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway
:30:29. > :30:31.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it
:30:32. > :30:39.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically
:30:40. > :30:42.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability
:30:43. > :30:44.for young families, alongside its proposed ban
:30:45. > :30:51.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,
:30:52. > :31:01.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home
:31:02. > :31:04.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now
:31:05. > :31:09.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the
:31:10. > :31:12.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on
:31:13. > :31:17.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So
:31:18. > :31:20.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we
:31:21. > :31:26.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do
:31:27. > :31:29.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for
:31:30. > :31:32.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who
:31:33. > :31:37.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,
:31:38. > :31:42.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this
:31:43. > :31:46.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have
:31:47. > :31:50.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't
:31:51. > :31:55.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the
:31:56. > :31:59.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard
:32:00. > :32:03.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have
:32:04. > :32:07.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of
:32:08. > :32:11.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You
:32:12. > :32:17.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%
:32:18. > :32:21.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent
:32:22. > :32:25.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the
:32:26. > :32:28.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised
:32:29. > :32:33.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there
:32:34. > :32:40.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional
:32:41. > :32:44.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on
:32:45. > :32:48.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional
:32:49. > :32:51.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones
:32:52. > :32:54.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in
:32:55. > :32:59.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is
:33:00. > :33:02.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see
:33:03. > :33:06.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the
:33:07. > :33:17.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to
:33:18. > :33:20.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other
:33:21. > :33:22.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money
:33:23. > :33:25.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We
:33:26. > :33:28.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large
:33:29. > :33:35.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable
:33:36. > :33:41.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%
:33:42. > :33:45.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it
:33:46. > :33:50.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of
:33:51. > :33:53.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what
:33:54. > :33:56.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or
:33:57. > :34:00.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable
:34:01. > :34:04.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white
:34:05. > :34:08.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power
:34:09. > :34:16.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new
:34:17. > :34:19.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year
:34:20. > :34:24.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.
:34:25. > :34:27.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the
:34:28. > :34:30.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new
:34:31. > :34:34.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,
:34:35. > :34:40.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous
:34:41. > :34:46.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the
:34:47. > :34:49.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this
:34:50. > :34:55.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it
:34:56. > :34:59.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer
:35:00. > :35:05.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband
:35:06. > :35:09.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and
:35:10. > :35:15.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's
:35:16. > :35:19.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which
:35:20. > :35:23.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have
:35:24. > :35:28.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much
:35:29. > :35:32.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the
:35:33. > :35:37.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed
:35:38. > :35:42.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons
:35:43. > :35:46.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home
:35:47. > :35:51.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a
:35:52. > :35:55.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term
:35:56. > :36:02.return and give families more security. You have set a target,
:36:03. > :36:05.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million
:36:06. > :36:13.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we
:36:14. > :36:16.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this
:36:17. > :36:24.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...
:36:25. > :36:30.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking
:36:31. > :36:34.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with
:36:35. > :36:39.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is
:36:40. > :36:43.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes
:36:44. > :36:46.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total
:36:47. > :36:52.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the
:36:53. > :36:56.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1
:36:57. > :37:02.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three
:37:03. > :37:06.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1
:37:07. > :37:10.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't
:37:11. > :37:15.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this
:37:16. > :37:19.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions
:37:20. > :37:24.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.
:37:25. > :37:30.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,
:37:31. > :37:35.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am
:37:36. > :37:39.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It
:37:40. > :37:43.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes
:37:44. > :37:49.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the
:37:50. > :37:53.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there
:37:54. > :37:57.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove
:37:58. > :38:00.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should
:38:01. > :38:06.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We
:38:07. > :38:12.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million
:38:13. > :38:16.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken
:38:17. > :38:19.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green
:38:20. > :38:22.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,
:38:23. > :38:24.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.
:38:25. > :38:27.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:28. > :38:35.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...
:38:36. > :38:46.You might laugh at this old advert for Cadbury's Smash,
:38:47. > :38:51.but could robotic innovations save Lincolnshire's agricultural
:38:52. > :38:54.businesses, who say they are facing a Brexit skills shortage.
:38:55. > :38:57.I can no more vote for this than I can vote against my conscience.
:38:58. > :39:00.I can no more vote for this because it's against my values.
:39:01. > :39:04.I can no more vote for this than I can vote against my own DNA.
:39:05. > :39:08.Rebel, resign and abstain and rebel resign and,
:39:09. > :39:11.resign and reshuffle, we look at our MPs' Brexit vote
:39:12. > :39:19.We are joined today by Rosie Winterton, Labour MP
:39:20. > :39:22.for Doncaster Central and by Jason McCartney,
:39:23. > :39:33.So, how would you both sum up this political week?
:39:34. > :39:37.I think one of the most important debates that many of us will have
:39:38. > :39:42.How would you sum up the week, Jason McCartney?
:39:43. > :39:46.I would echo that and I made a point of staying in the chamber
:39:47. > :39:50.Really, really long day but very important and just really listened
:39:51. > :39:59.Some thoughtful and emotional contributions from across the house.
:40:00. > :40:03.We will hear some of those a little bit later but there are claims today
:40:04. > :40:05.the food and farming industry in our area is facing
:40:06. > :40:09.Almost half of businesses say they can't find enough staff.
:40:10. > :40:12.Many are blaming a mass exodus of migrant workers
:40:13. > :40:20.Yes, so, our new caravan area is going to come out
:40:21. > :40:22.the back here and basically we are going to have
:40:23. > :40:25.brand-new accommodation, very nice communal area and also
:40:26. > :40:32.It sounds like a luxury holiday park but this will be the on-farm
:40:33. > :40:40.It's got to be good to entice the dwindling numbers willing
:40:41. > :40:43.to cultivate crops and keep food on our tables.
:40:44. > :40:47.Some farmers are going to new lengths to keep workers happy.
:40:48. > :40:50.Without migrant workers, our business would not operate,
:40:51. > :40:57.The industry we are in and the hours and the conditions
:40:58. > :41:00.that we working outside, you know, we have to
:41:01. > :41:07.Mike supplies sprouts to most UK supermarkets.
:41:08. > :41:10.Before Christmas it was touch and go whether he would meet orders
:41:11. > :41:16.Madeleina is perfectly happy here but says many of her friends
:41:17. > :41:19.who have returned season after season will soon
:41:20. > :41:24.One of the people, they are going home.
:41:25. > :41:28.A lot of them they are staying here, they are working, keeping some money
:41:29. > :41:33.and after that they are going back to Romania to do something with it.
:41:34. > :41:39.It is claimed that 47% of UK labour agencies are struggling to find
:41:40. > :41:44.And farmers say they recruited 10% less staff than they actually needed
:41:45. > :41:53.Neil Vickers has also noticed an exit post-Brexit.
:41:54. > :41:56.Homeless migrants use his church as an emergency night shelter
:41:57. > :42:00.when the temperatures fall below zero.
:42:01. > :42:04.But this winter there has been 50% less needing a bed.
:42:05. > :42:10.We have heard that people are going home because the exchange rate
:42:11. > :42:13.is not good and so they are sending money home which is not
:42:14. > :42:16.as much as they could send if they were working
:42:17. > :42:20.We have heard they have gone because of threats
:42:21. > :42:26.It is the reason why academics at the University of Lincoln have
:42:27. > :42:29.been awarded over ?2 million of government funding to develop
:42:30. > :42:38.The aim, to pick the crops that people don't want to,
:42:39. > :42:40.which is fast becoming a global problem.
:42:41. > :42:43.This is not just a UK problem, this is a worldwide problem,
:42:44. > :42:46.so we start in California, they have had a national living wage
:42:47. > :42:50.imposed in California, which is driving labour costs up.
:42:51. > :42:53.The second thing with the new president, Donald Trump,
:42:54. > :42:56.there are concerns about the availability of their labour
:42:57. > :42:58.force, which is currently based on Mexican migrant labour
:42:59. > :43:04.in California, so exact parallel to the UK in California.
:43:05. > :43:08.But James Truscott says robotics is not enough.
:43:09. > :43:13.His company handles over 350,000 tonnes of potatoes a year.
:43:14. > :43:17.He says politicians need to introduce a permit scheme so that
:43:18. > :43:21.businesses in food and farming can still deploy migrant workers no
:43:22. > :43:30.I think if you are a farmer you have always needed seasonal people
:43:31. > :43:33.to come onto your land and get the harvest in.
:43:34. > :43:36.I suspect if they don't have that then they might have to either grow
:43:37. > :43:40.different things that don't require people, so, you know,
:43:41. > :43:42.it is very difficult to get a strawberry off strawberry plant
:43:43. > :43:49.It has to be people to do that job so if those people aren't there then
:43:50. > :43:54.For now, Madeleina says she is happy, but farmers say
:43:55. > :43:58.as the country appears set to curb migration, they are being
:43:59. > :44:03.forced to court it just to survive in business.
:44:04. > :44:12.The good news is that MPs haven't been replaced by robots just yet,
:44:13. > :44:16.so let me ask you, Rosie Winterton, how seriously should we take these
:44:17. > :44:20.I think we should take them very seriously and I think the film that
:44:21. > :44:27.you have shown goes to the heart of the debate we had
:44:28. > :44:30.During the debate, I raised the issue, first of all,
:44:31. > :44:40.of the fact that we need a proper plan for the Yorkshire and Humber
:44:41. > :44:43.area when it comes to Brexit as David Davis has talked a lot
:44:44. > :44:46.about bringing in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, saying what is it
:44:47. > :44:49.that is going to happen in your nations because of Brexit,
:44:50. > :44:52.but I want the regions to be able to have a say as well.
:44:53. > :44:55.I want Yorkshire and the Humber to be able to look at exactly those
:44:56. > :44:57.issues around the needs of our industries like
:44:58. > :45:02.What requirements will it have post-Brexit in terms of migrant
:45:03. > :45:08.workers, but also what should we be doing in the future to look
:45:09. > :45:11.at the skills and education to fill some of the gaps
:45:12. > :45:13.that there are undoubtedly going to be?
:45:14. > :45:19.Unless we have a proper analysis of what will happen in our region
:45:20. > :45:27.then we won't be able to address those problems.
:45:28. > :45:31.At the last count we had got more than 1.5 million people
:45:32. > :45:35.Why are some bosses complaining about a shortage of workers?
:45:36. > :45:38.I think your film actually hit the nail on the head there.
:45:39. > :45:40.Your company bosses were saying people want better working
:45:41. > :45:43.conditions and they want better pay and surely they are good things,
:45:44. > :45:46.so they are now going to have to tackle those issues to be able
:45:47. > :45:49.to get the workforce that they need and yes I have been talking
:45:50. > :45:52.on the train home last night to MPs from Peterborough and from
:45:53. > :45:55.Lincolnshire and asking about this, how do people in their area feel
:45:56. > :45:58.when maybe there is unemployment but there are people
:45:59. > :46:02.How do we get people doing jobs and getting
:46:03. > :46:05.the national living wage, to get a fair wage,
:46:06. > :46:08.and good working conditions, so they can fulfil the roles
:46:09. > :46:10.that we need, not just an agricultural industry...
:46:11. > :46:15.Can I just say, I think Jason is absolutely right,
:46:16. > :46:20.people want to have a say, they want to feel that their MPs
:46:21. > :46:23.are actually feeding into the debate that I think that the government
:46:24. > :46:27.is going to have to look at the way that the whole labour market
:46:28. > :46:42.operates because we are seeing with the huge explosion
:46:43. > :46:44.like zero hours' contracts we have got a very,
:46:45. > :46:47.People who frankly and I believe that sometimes other European
:46:48. > :46:50.countries are being exploited but we need to tackle the whole
:46:51. > :46:54.issue of how the labour market works and Jason is right to say that
:46:55. > :46:57.sometimes big companies need to take a look at how they are operating
:46:58. > :47:00.because we need further training, we need skills but we need to make
:47:01. > :47:04.sure that people are working in a fair and equitable workplace.
:47:05. > :47:07.But when you talk to many job-seekers, they will say
:47:08. > :47:10.they can't get jobs because the bosses want migrant
:47:11. > :47:14.workers who are cheaper and will, let us face it, work under worse
:47:15. > :47:18.conditions than British-born workers.
:47:19. > :47:20.And that is creating an unsustainable economy
:47:21. > :47:23.and I would agree with Rosie here, I saw documentaries on other
:47:24. > :47:26.channels this week about workers in warehouses with poor hours,
:47:27. > :47:34.That kind of sort of work in our economy is unsustainable
:47:35. > :47:37.and it is unacceptable and these issues now have needed to be
:47:38. > :47:43.It goes back to governments of all colours and maybe now we can
:47:44. > :47:45.address these and Brexit is all about getting
:47:46. > :47:48.control of these things, having a workforce that bosses
:47:49. > :47:52.and the government and us as MPs have a say about and allowing people
:47:53. > :47:54.a decent standard of living, decent working conditions, and these
:47:55. > :48:01.Yes, but you both represent parties who have led governments
:48:02. > :48:04.where there has been a huge increase in mass migration.
:48:05. > :48:06.This huge influx of unskilled labour has come into this
:48:07. > :48:08.country over the past ten, 15 years.
:48:09. > :48:12.So, you are trying to shut the stable after the horse has bolted.
:48:13. > :48:17.No, no, that's not true because actually, what we know
:48:18. > :48:21.and I go back to why it is important that we have a plan for the region
:48:22. > :48:24.and an analysis, we know that we are an ageing population.
:48:25. > :48:28.We know that we are going to need, and I said this in the Commons last
:48:29. > :48:34.week, both skilled and unskilled workers from the European Union
:48:35. > :48:37.to be able to come in and do the sort of work.
:48:38. > :48:40.Why do we need that when we have got more than a million unemployed?
:48:41. > :48:43.Because we are not going to, you ask businesses about their needs
:48:44. > :48:49.for the future and they will all say that they need people to work
:48:50. > :48:53.at all levels, simply because even with the 1.5 million unemployed,
:48:54. > :48:56.you are not going to be able to fill all the gaps
:48:57. > :48:59.that there are and we need to be honest about that.
:49:00. > :49:02.We will come back to this debate in our next discussion because one
:49:03. > :49:05.of the region's newest MPs, Sleaford's Caroline Johnson,
:49:06. > :49:09.You can say she summed up everything when she said,
:49:10. > :49:12."We asked the people and the people said out we must go."
:49:13. > :49:16.So here are some highlights from that epic debate on Brexit.
:49:17. > :49:19.The clerk will now proceed to read the orders of the day.
:49:20. > :49:22.European Union Notification of Withdrawal Bill.
:49:23. > :49:31.MUSIC: 'Dance of The Knights' by Prokofiev.
:49:32. > :49:40.I believe that the referendum is not advice but an instruction to us.
:49:41. > :49:43.We asked the people and the people said out, so out we must go.
:49:44. > :49:48.When we went into the European Union of the common market in the 1970s,
:49:49. > :49:52.we also had public consent, popular consent expressed
:49:53. > :50:09.And it would be folly in the extreme for the other place with maybe
:50:10. > :50:12.politicians in the other place dominated by parties
:50:13. > :50:17.who have been diminished in the elected House to try and go
:50:18. > :50:21.against the will of this House and that will indeed I think be
:50:22. > :50:25.a suicide bid by the other place if they try and amend and send back
:50:26. > :50:36.And people who are not racist, not racist, still have genuine
:50:37. > :50:39.concerns about the impact on their public services
:50:40. > :50:45.and their jobs, pay and conditions from that unrestricted immigration.
:50:46. > :50:48.It could be viewed that we have shut ourselves off, however the important
:50:49. > :50:51.thing is that now the decision has been made that we do everything
:50:52. > :50:54.in our power to prove that that is not the case.
:50:55. > :51:09.So however painful this is now, we are leaving the European Union.
:51:10. > :51:18.When I was elected to Parliament and took my oath of allegiance,
:51:19. > :51:21.I changed the words to say that I would put my constituents first.
:51:22. > :51:27.York Central voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union.
:51:28. > :51:34.History has its eyes on us today, so here is my answer.
:51:35. > :51:37.I can know more about for this than I can vote against my conscience.
:51:38. > :51:40.I can no more vote for this because it's against my values.
:51:41. > :51:44.I can no more vote for this than I can vote against my own DNA.
:51:45. > :51:54.Jason McCartney, can you understand why someone like Rachel Maskell,
:51:55. > :51:59.the York Central Labour MP, voted in the way her constituents
:52:00. > :52:03.they wanted to remain in the European Union,
:52:04. > :52:08.I can always understand why different members of Parliament
:52:09. > :52:12.want to reflect local wishes and listen to their constituents
:52:13. > :52:14.but we have to remember what this vote was all about.
:52:15. > :52:17.You know, we all voted to have the referendum,
:52:18. > :52:20.to let the people decide and then it was to enact the people's will.
:52:21. > :52:24.I actually remember on the night itself I was at New College in
:52:25. > :52:27.Huddersfield when it was the night of the referendum and many of us
:52:28. > :52:29.actually thought the country was going to go to Remain
:52:30. > :52:32.and I was thinking about what I would say to my constituents,
:52:33. > :52:35.I voted Leave, but I was getting ready in my head to say
:52:36. > :52:38.we have had the vote, we are staying and it is a question
:52:39. > :52:40.of all coming together and moving on.
:52:41. > :52:43.We actually voted to Leave and now it is about taking that through.
:52:44. > :52:46.But Rosie is absolutely right, we have got a White Paper now,
:52:47. > :52:49.we are going to have a lot of debates and votes
:52:50. > :52:51.and it is about getting the best deal not only
:52:52. > :52:54.for the United Kingdom, but for us as Yorkshire MPs,
:52:55. > :52:57.for the North of England, but also take people with us,
:52:58. > :53:00.you know, I was asked about it at a school this morning by some
:53:01. > :53:03.of the 10-year-olds and we need to talk and communicate and reassure
:53:04. > :53:07.people that we are going to get a good deal for the United Kingdom
:53:08. > :53:10.and that we are leaving the European Union and keep
:53:11. > :53:13.communicating, working together on this.
:53:14. > :53:16.Let me ask you, Rosie Winterton, as a former Labour Chief Whip,
:53:17. > :53:19.who was in charge of party discipline, do you accept the whole
:53:20. > :53:22.Article 50 debate was an absolute shambles for your party?
:53:23. > :53:26.No, look, I think what your film showed, there were very,
:53:27. > :53:30.very strong feelings in the house last week, very emotional speeches
:53:31. > :53:38.We in the Labour Party, yes, there are different views,
:53:39. > :53:41.I absolutely understand that, but first of all it was right
:53:42. > :53:46.I think it was very important that the party
:53:47. > :53:51.through the Shadow Cabinet and the leadership had a position
:53:52. > :53:55.and the Shadow Cabinet members kept to that or resigned if they couldn't
:53:56. > :53:58.feel that they could support it but I don't think any party has got
:53:59. > :54:02.a monopoly on there being strong views on both sides
:54:03. > :54:08.But what also showed is how important it is for Parliament
:54:09. > :54:12.to remain involved in the process because it was ludicrous
:54:13. > :54:18.of the government to try to prevent Parliament having a say.
:54:19. > :54:23.Mary Cray, the Labour MP for Wakefield, two thirds
:54:24. > :54:25.of her constituency voted to Leave the EU.
:54:26. > :54:31.Is she vulnerable at the next election?
:54:32. > :54:34.I think Mary did what she felt was absolutely right
:54:35. > :54:36.and people, you know, people will respect
:54:37. > :54:42.So you are saying two thirds of voters in Wakefield will respect
:54:43. > :54:46.I think a speech like Mary's, you could see that it
:54:47. > :54:52.I think the public will watch that and say well, some of us might
:54:53. > :54:56.have a different view, but however she made her feelings
:54:57. > :55:00.very clear and she said this is what I believe is the best
:55:01. > :55:07.But I think this is an issue where people do understand
:55:08. > :55:13.that the country itself is split about Brexit.
:55:14. > :55:19.Well, all parties, all parties will have their difficulties over this.
:55:20. > :55:22.I think we're going to see some lively debates
:55:23. > :55:25.in the Conservative Party over the next week.
:55:26. > :55:28.The Liberal Democrats have had some MPs who...
:55:29. > :55:32.What I would like to know, I have sometimes voted
:55:33. > :55:36.against my party on issues like tuition fees, you are a former
:55:37. > :55:40.Chief Whip, what do you think about the Labour whips that voted
:55:41. > :55:42.against the three line whip, should they keep their jobs?
:55:43. > :55:45.Well, as I say, I think that first of all...
:55:46. > :55:52.It was absolutely right, Jeremy and the Shadow Cabinet
:55:53. > :55:55.imposed a three line whip and said this is the position of the party.
:55:56. > :55:57.They have made it very clear that the Shadow Cabinet
:55:58. > :56:06.They need to then decide in view of the debates, in view of...
:56:07. > :56:08.Would you have sacked them if they were your wits?
:56:09. > :56:10.I can't prejudge, you know, as an ex-chief whip.
:56:11. > :56:13.How would you have dealt with Diane Abbott, who missed
:56:14. > :56:19.Diane Abbott was ill, so, you know, you can't say well,
:56:20. > :56:25.It is absolutely right that there was a three line whip,
:56:26. > :56:27.that the party had a clear vision, that the Shadow Cabinet
:56:28. > :56:32.How you deal with other people is something for the Chief Whip
:56:33. > :56:36.and the leader to look at but I also think it is right, you know, leave
:56:37. > :56:40.Let us get on with having a very, very important debate
:56:41. > :56:46.because I also think, I don't do the public particularly
:56:47. > :56:48.because I also think, I don't think the
:56:49. > :56:57.like at the moment for our parties to be saying well,
:56:58. > :56:59.you know, your party is more divided than mine.
:57:00. > :57:02.I think they want us to be saying what's going to be the best...
:57:03. > :57:04.I think they know which party is more divided.
:57:05. > :57:07.What is going to be best for the country.
:57:08. > :57:09.You have opened a real can of worms there.
:57:10. > :57:13.But anyway, we move on to get some more of the week's
:57:14. > :57:16.Here is Trudy Scanlon with our round-up in 60 seconds.
:57:17. > :57:18.Boston, the so-called Brexit capital of the country,
:57:19. > :57:20.was the destination for the Brexit committee this week.
:57:21. > :57:23.The group, led by MP Hilary Benn, is tasked with monitoring
:57:24. > :57:29.Ukip's Jane Collins was due to visit the High Court in London to hear
:57:30. > :57:35.what damages she must pay after libelling three rather MPs.
:57:36. > :57:37.what damages she must pay after libelling three MPs.
:57:38. > :57:40.The Yorkshire and Humber MEP said she was too busy to attend.
:57:41. > :57:42.She falsely claimed that Sir Kevin Barron, John Healey
:57:43. > :57:45.and Sarah Champion knew about child abuse in Rotherham but did nothing.
:57:46. > :57:46.The damages will be announced tomorrow.
:57:47. > :57:49.Hundreds of people across the region protested at the state visit
:57:50. > :57:53.More than 1 million people have signed a petition,
:57:54. > :57:55.started by a Leeds solicitor, which means the visit
:57:56. > :58:02.And from Trump protests to dancing triumph, West Yorkshire MP
:58:03. > :58:05.Yvette Cooper joined her husband Ed Balls for a lesson
:58:06. > :58:08.in the quickstep, Gangnam-style, when his Strictly Come Dancing tour
:58:09. > :58:22.Have you ever danced with Ed Balls at any Labour Party events?
:58:23. > :58:25.No I haven't but it always makes you smile, doesn't it?
:58:26. > :58:28.He has actually got a very good sense of humour.
:58:29. > :58:32.Yeah, I am so glad that they are going round the country doing that.
:58:33. > :58:34.And look, you know, there they were in a classroom
:58:35. > :58:38.You will be getting free tickets at this rate!
:58:39. > :58:40.OK, look, we don't have time to go into every aspect
:58:41. > :58:43.of Donald Trump's foreign policy, this either question this week,
:58:44. > :58:46.of Donald Trump's foreign policy, the question this week,
:58:47. > :58:47.should the state visit go-ahead, Jason McCartney?
:58:48. > :58:50.I was in Washington, DC with the Nato committee last
:58:51. > :58:52.weekend when it was the inauguration and look, I would not
:58:53. > :58:56.I think his personal qualities are appalling,
:58:57. > :58:59.his attitude to women, but he has been elected
:59:00. > :59:01.the president of the United States and we can either shout
:59:02. > :59:04.from the sidelines or we can engage and try and persuade and cajole
:59:05. > :59:08.and encourage him to do the right things.
:59:09. > :59:11.I am pleased we have got the commitment on Nato and Estonia
:59:12. > :59:14.and Lithuania have already thanked the Prime Minister for that as well.
:59:15. > :59:17.It is incredibly difficult, isn't it, because we have had some
:59:18. > :59:21.foreign leaders before who have come to the United Kingdom from China
:59:22. > :59:23.and from the Middle East as well you have human rights issues
:59:24. > :59:29.I haven't been in government but I know Rosie has as well,
:59:30. > :59:32.you know, Tony Blair having the Chinese leader here.
:59:33. > :59:35.I am glad I don't have to make the decision.
:59:36. > :59:39.I have to be honest, I want us to engage but I do feel
:59:40. > :59:43.incredibly uncomfortable about Mr Trump as an individual may
:59:44. > :59:49.I think people are absolutely shocked by what he did.
:59:50. > :59:52.I think it's pretty awful that he didn't warn Theresa May that
:59:53. > :59:57.something was coming along very quickly, which would affect
:59:58. > :00:03.I think there should be a fair amount of distance
:00:04. > :00:06.between what happened and any planned visit.
:00:07. > :00:10.You have got a large number of Muslim constituents
:00:11. > :00:14.Would you boycott any public events with Donald Trump?
:00:15. > :00:17.I am very proud represent my Kashmiri, Pakistani community.
:00:18. > :00:21.You look across Europe, you know, what about the Burqa ban in France?
:00:22. > :00:24.Germany have announced they are going to attack suspects,
:00:25. > :00:35.not people who have been found guilty, attacking suspects as well.
:00:36. > :00:40.If we are going to say no to Trump, I'll be going to say no
:00:41. > :00:44.And I tell you what, you know, there are some people, you know,
:00:45. > :00:46.in the Labour Party, not Rosie thank goodness,
:00:47. > :00:50.I will take no lectures from anyone in the Labour Party
:00:51. > :00:52.about who we engage with if the Labour Party
:00:53. > :00:54.have a leader who engaged with the IRA, standing
:00:55. > :00:58.I think it's important we engage with the President
:00:59. > :01:02.Well, look, I mean I think that people were absolutely shocked
:01:03. > :01:05.by what Donald Trump said and did and I think they felt
:01:06. > :01:09.That is rather different from things like getting
:01:10. > :01:13.the Good Friday Agreement put in place.
:01:14. > :01:16.A special relationship, we expect better and that was
:01:17. > :01:23.20th of February Parliament will debate Mr Trump.
:01:24. > :01:25.I'm sure we will hear from you both then.
:01:26. > :01:28.Thank you both for your time today, Rosie Winterton and Jason McCartney.
:01:29. > :01:31.And as always, I shall hand you now back to Andrew Neil in London.
:01:32. > :01:34.expansion, but thank you to both of you for being here. Back to you,
:01:35. > :01:39.Andrew. Will the Government's plan
:01:40. > :01:43.to boost house-building Could a handful of Conservative
:01:44. > :01:46.MPs cause problems for And what is President
:01:47. > :02:05.Trump going to do next? You have been following the genesis
:02:06. > :02:09.of this housing white paper. What do you make of it? I think it will be
:02:10. > :02:16.quite spectacular, pretty radical stuff. We heard bits about beating
:02:17. > :02:19.up on developers. I understand it will be a whack, walk, covering
:02:20. > :02:25.every single problem with housing supply and trying to solve it. Which
:02:26. > :02:28.means bad news if you are a huge fan of the green belt, because they will
:02:29. > :02:31.go round that the other way by forcing large quotas on councils are
:02:32. > :02:37.making it down to councils where they build. If you fill up your
:02:38. > :02:40.brown space in towns they will have to trigger the exceptional
:02:41. > :02:44.circumstances bit of the bill to beat on green belts. Beating up
:02:45. > :02:49.developers, opening up the market for renters across the board. And
:02:50. > :02:53.Theresa May, one of the most defining thing she could do on the
:02:54. > :02:59.domestic agenda. I am not as excited as Tom about this. I look back to
:03:00. > :03:04.2004, do you remember the Kate Barker report? Successive
:03:05. > :03:11.governments, successive prime ministers have been promising to
:03:12. > :03:14.address the housing shortage. In 2004 Kate Barker recommended
:03:15. > :03:20.hundreds of thousands new homes. Gordon Brown talked about 3 million
:03:21. > :03:25.new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never happens. The reason is at the end of
:03:26. > :03:27.the day this is local politics, local councillors need to keep their
:03:28. > :03:29.seats and they won't keep their seats if there are hugely
:03:30. > :03:35.controversial developments locally that they support. Yes, the
:03:36. > :03:40.government can and are proposing to overrule councils that don't back
:03:41. > :03:43.local developments, but they may find themselves completely inundated
:03:44. > :03:48.with those cases. I think that is the whole point of it, to take on
:03:49. > :03:57.those NIMBY often Tory councils and force them to build. I can't think
:03:58. > :04:01.of a better defining issue for Theresa May than sticking one in the
:04:02. > :04:07.eye of some quite well off half Tory countryside councils. The government
:04:08. > :04:11.gives councils a quota of homes they have to fill, if they don't have to
:04:12. > :04:15.fill that all run out overland to fill the quota, the government then
:04:16. > :04:19.comes in and tells them they have to built on the green belt? How is that
:04:20. > :04:22.going to work? At the moment the green belt is absolutely sacrosanct
:04:23. > :04:29.in British politics. They'll have to do some work on educating people on
:04:30. > :04:34.what green belts means. Potato farms, golf courses... At the moment
:04:35. > :04:38.the idea people have of the green belt being verdant fields needs to
:04:39. > :04:43.be dismantled. You are right. I agree with Tom, 11 million people in
:04:44. > :04:46.the private rental sector in the UK. In the last election more voted
:04:47. > :04:50.Labour than conservative. This is an area where Theresa May would look to
:04:51. > :04:54.expand her vote. The problem has always been, the same problem we
:04:55. > :04:59.have with pension policy and why pensioners have done better than
:05:00. > :05:04.working families in recent years. They are older and they vote more
:05:05. > :05:11.and anything to the detriment of older people. I wonder how they will
:05:12. > :05:15.get private money to come in on anything like this go they would
:05:16. > :05:20.need to have a huge expansion? There is a huge amount of speculation and
:05:21. > :05:23.one of the thing that locks up the system as you have people buying
:05:24. > :05:28.land, taking out a stake of land in the hope that one point it may at
:05:29. > :05:32.some point free up. At the end of the day, unless you have councils
:05:33. > :05:36.far more willing to quickly fast track these applications, which they
:05:37. > :05:41.won't for the reason I said before, it's a very long-term investment. Ed
:05:42. > :05:46.Miliband proposed three-year leases in which the rent could only go up
:05:47. > :05:51.by an agreed formula, probably the three years to give the young
:05:52. > :05:56.families a certain stability over that period. He had a use it or lose
:05:57. > :06:00.it rules for planning development, if you don't use it you lose the
:06:01. > :06:04.planning rights. Somebody else gets it. The Tories disparaged that at
:06:05. > :06:10.the time. This is at the centre of their policy now.
:06:11. > :06:13.This is probably item number four of Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa
:06:14. > :06:18.May has wholesale pinched in the last six months or so. Why not? I
:06:19. > :06:22.think if you look at the change in mood across housing and planning
:06:23. > :06:27.over the last 5-6 years, it used to be an issue very much of green belt
:06:28. > :06:30.versus London planners. Now you have grandparents living in houses in the
:06:31. > :06:33.countryside, knowing their grandchildren can't get on the
:06:34. > :06:39.housing ladder any longer. Maybe a bit more intervention in the market,
:06:40. > :06:42.tougher on renting conditions, maybe that is exactly what the country
:06:43. > :06:48.needs. Will they meet the 1 million target? It would be a defiance of
:06:49. > :06:53.every political thing that has happened in the last ten years. I
:06:54. > :06:56.think Tom is right, if there is only one difference between Theresa May
:06:57. > :07:01.and David Cameron it's the willingness of the state to
:07:02. > :07:06.intervene. When Ed Miliband said that he was seen as communism, but
:07:07. > :07:13.Theresa May can get away with it. How serious is this talk of a couple
:07:14. > :07:19.of dozen Tories who were very loyal over voting for the principle of
:07:20. > :07:22.Article 50 but may now be tempted to vote for some amendments to Article
:07:23. > :07:26.50 legislation that they would find quite attractive? I think that
:07:27. > :07:32.threat has certainly been taken seriously by levers. I spoke to the
:07:33. > :07:37.campaign group Leaves Means Leave last night. The figure they
:07:38. > :07:39.mentioned was up to 20 remaining Tories. That sounds a lot to me but
:07:40. > :07:45.that is what they are concerned about and those Tories would come
:07:46. > :07:49.together with Labour and the SNP to vote for that amendment. Although
:07:50. > :07:54.that amendment sounds rather nice and democratic, actually in the eyes
:07:55. > :07:58.of many levers that is a wrecking amendment. Because what you are
:07:59. > :08:02.doing is giving Parliament a sort of veto over whatever deal Theresa May
:08:03. > :08:06.brings back. What they want is the vote to be before that deal is
:08:07. > :08:10.finalised. It isn't necessarily the case that if Parliament decided they
:08:11. > :08:14.didn't like that deal we would just go to WTO, we would fall out of the
:08:15. > :08:21.European Union. There are mixed views as to whether we might remain
:08:22. > :08:25.in and things could be extended. My understanding is the people making
:08:26. > :08:29.the amendments, they won any deal that is done to be brought to
:08:30. > :08:35.Parliament in time, so that if Parliament fancies it it's done, but
:08:36. > :08:39.if it does and it doesn't just mean go to WTO rules. There will be time
:08:40. > :08:44.to go back, renegotiate or think again? The question is where it puts
:08:45. > :08:52.Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of the options... Once we trigger
:08:53. > :08:55.Article 50 the two negotiation begins on the power switches to
:08:56. > :08:58.Europe. They can run out the clock and it will be worse for us than
:08:59. > :09:03.them. I don't think either option is particularly appealing. I think what
:09:04. > :09:06.seems like a rather Serena week for Article 50 this week isn't going to
:09:07. > :09:11.be reflective of what will happen next. The way the government's
:09:12. > :09:15.position is at the moment, if at the end the only choice Parliament has
:09:16. > :09:18.is to vote for the deal or crash out on WTO rules, then even the
:09:19. > :09:23.remainder is going to vote for the deal even if they don't like it,
:09:24. > :09:29.because they would regard crashing out as the worst of all possible
:09:30. > :09:33.results. Possibly. It will be a great game of bluff if Theresa May
:09:34. > :09:35.fights off any of these amendments on Wednesday and gets a
:09:36. > :09:39.straightforward deal or no Deal vote. I have a funny feeling this
:09:40. > :09:43.amendment, if it's chosen, we must remember because we don't know if
:09:44. > :09:49.they will choose this amendment, if it does go to a vote on Wednesday it
:09:50. > :09:52.will be very tight indeed. Remember, one final thing Theresa May can do
:09:53. > :09:58.if she gets Parliament voting against, as Isabel would have it,
:09:59. > :10:02.she could try to get a new parliament and go for a general
:10:03. > :10:08.election. And probably get a huge majority to do so. The Lords, it
:10:09. > :10:18.goes there after the February recess. They are very pro-Europe,
:10:19. > :10:24.but does their instinct for self-preservation override that? I
:10:25. > :10:27.think that is it. A Tory Lord said this morning I will vote to block it
:10:28. > :10:33.on a conscience measure, but you have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran
:10:34. > :10:37.Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to the Lords reform saying is an
:10:38. > :10:40.outrage. I doubt they will vote for their own demise, to hasten their
:10:41. > :10:48.own demise by blocking it. What did you make of Doctor Gorka smart
:10:49. > :10:51.fascinating. Cut from the same cloth as his boss. I thought it was
:10:52. > :10:55.extraordinary listening to him, saying everything is going dutifully
:10:56. > :10:59.to plan. But at the end of the day, what they are doing is what people
:11:00. > :11:03.in America voted for Trump to do. If you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling
:11:04. > :11:07.on why America voted for Trump, they went into this with their eyes wide
:11:08. > :11:13.open. One of the top fears among American voters, particularly
:11:14. > :11:16.Republican leading ones was America's immigration policy is or
:11:17. > :11:21.could be letting in terror arrests. As far as he is concerned, he is
:11:22. > :11:24.doing what he was elected to do. This whole year is turning into a
:11:25. > :11:27.wonderful year long lecture series on how democracy works at a
:11:28. > :11:31.fundamental level. I'm not sure anyone wanted it but it's what we've
:11:32. > :11:36.got. This same in the way we've been talking about direct democracy and
:11:37. > :11:41.Parliamentary democracy. The same is happening in America between
:11:42. > :11:45.executive and judicial branches. We are seeing the limits of
:11:46. > :11:49.presidential power. Regardless of the fact that people voted for Trump
:11:50. > :11:54.they voted for senators. The judge who blocks this was appointed by
:11:55. > :11:59.George W Bush. So-called Judge Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush!
:12:00. > :12:02.It's fascinating we're having all these conversations now that I never
:12:03. > :12:07.bought five years ago we would be having at such a fundamental level.
:12:08. > :12:11.Has the media yet worked out how to cover the Trump administration or
:12:12. > :12:17.has he got us behaving like headless chickens? He says something
:12:18. > :12:22.incendiary and we all run over to do that and when you pick it off it
:12:23. > :12:25.turns out not to be as incendiary as we thought? And then back doing
:12:26. > :12:30.something and we all rush over there. Is he making fools of us? Is
:12:31. > :12:35.exactly what he did in the election campaign. So many quick and fast
:12:36. > :12:39.outrageous comments frontrunner on a daily basis, no one single one of
:12:40. > :12:43.them had full news cycle time to be pored over and examined. I think
:12:44. > :12:48.there is a problem with this. Although he keeps the upper hand,
:12:49. > :12:52.keeps the agenda and keeps on the populist ground, the problem is it
:12:53. > :12:55.easy to campaign like that. If you are governing in a state of
:12:56. > :12:58.semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the American public will be comfortable
:12:59. > :13:01.with that. They don't really want their government to be swirling
:13:02. > :13:06.chaos all the time, as fascinating as it might be on TV. They will be
:13:07. > :13:12.exhausted by it, I already am. I have been interviewing White House
:13:13. > :13:16.administration official since 1976 and that is the first time someone
:13:17. > :13:17.hasn't given me a straight answer on America supporting the EU. That is a
:13:18. > :13:19.different world. Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two
:13:20. > :13:23.tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics -
:13:24. > :13:25.and I'll be back here Remember, if it's Sunday -
:13:26. > :14:04.it's the Sunday Politics. TV: He's not your father.
:14:05. > :14:17.WOMAN GASPS so why not pay your TV licence in
:14:18. > :14:31.weekly instalments, too?