26/02/2017

:00:42. > :00:47.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:48. > :00:48.Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,

:00:49. > :00:50.not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.

:00:51. > :00:52.But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,

:00:53. > :00:54.the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.

:00:55. > :00:56.Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,

:00:57. > :00:59.but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party

:01:00. > :01:09.The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.

:01:10. > :01:14.You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!

:01:15. > :01:17.And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact

:01:18. > :01:21.Later on the Sunday Politics, but after riots in Stockholm this

:01:22. > :01:24.is it time for some radical treatment for the NHS?

:01:25. > :01:26.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire's hospitals pay millions

:01:27. > :01:30.for temporary staff despite a Government spending cap.

:01:31. > :01:32.tax in all but four local authorities be enough to alleviate

:01:33. > :01:39.the crisis in social care? And joining me for all of that,

:01:40. > :01:42.three journalists who I'm pleased to say have so far not been banned

:01:43. > :01:50.from the White House. I've tried banning them

:01:51. > :01:54.from this show repeatedly, but somehow they just keep getting

:01:55. > :02:05.past BBC security - it's Sam Coates, We have had two crucial

:02:06. > :02:10.by-elections, the results last Thursday night. It's now Sunday

:02:11. > :02:13.morning, where do they believe British politics? I think it leaves

:02:14. > :02:17.British politics looking as if it may go ahead without Ukip is a

:02:18. > :02:22.strong and robust force. It is difficult to see from where we are

:02:23. > :02:28.now how Ukip rebuilds into a credible vote winning operation. I

:02:29. > :02:33.think it looks unprofessional, the campaign they fought in Stoke was

:02:34. > :02:37.clearly winnable because the margin with which Labour held onto that

:02:38. > :02:40.seat was not an impressive one but they put forward arguably the wrong

:02:41. > :02:45.candidate, it was messy and it's hard to see where they go from here,

:02:46. > :02:50.particularly with the money problems they have and even Nigel Farage

:02:51. > :02:57.saying he's fed up of the party. If Isabel is right, if Ukip is no

:02:58. > :03:02.longer a major factor, you look at the state of Labour and the Lib Dems

:03:03. > :03:06.coming from a long way behind despite their local government

:03:07. > :03:11.by-election successes, Tories never more dominant. I think Theresa May

:03:12. > :03:17.is in a fascinating situation. She's the most powerful Prime Minister of

:03:18. > :03:21.modern times for now because she faces no confident, formidable

:03:22. > :03:26.opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher who in the 1980s, although she won

:03:27. > :03:32.landslides in the end, often looked like she was in trouble. She was

:03:33. > :03:38.inferred quite often in the build-up to the election. David Owen, Roy

:03:39. > :03:42.Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite often she was worried. At the moment

:03:43. > :03:47.Theresa May faces no formidable UK opposition. However, she is both

:03:48. > :03:51.strong and fragile because her agenda is Brexit, which I still

:03:52. > :03:55.think many have not got to grips with in terms of how complex and

:03:56. > :04:02.training and difficult it will be for her. Thatcher faced no

:04:03. > :04:07.equivalent to Brexit so she is both strong, formidably strong because of

:04:08. > :04:11.the wider UK political context, and very fragile. It is just when you

:04:12. > :04:16.think you have never been more dominant you are actually at the

:04:17. > :04:20.most dangerous, what can possibly go wrong? I think that the money of her

:04:21. > :04:24.MPs they haven't begun to think through the practicalities of Brexit

:04:25. > :04:29.and she does have a working majority of about 17 in the House of Commons

:04:30. > :04:33.so at any point she could be put under pressure from really

:04:34. > :04:37.opposition these days is done by the two wins inside the Conservative

:04:38. > :04:42.Party, either the 15 Europhiles or the bigger group of about 60

:04:43. > :04:46.Brexiteers who have continued to operate as a united and disciplined

:04:47. > :04:50.force within the Conservative Party to get their agenda on the table.

:04:51. > :04:54.Either of those wings could be disappointed at any point in the

:04:55. > :04:57.next three and a half years and that would put her under pressure. I

:04:58. > :05:05.wouldn't completely rule out Ukip coming back. The reason Ukip lost in

:05:06. > :05:07.Stoke I think it's because at the moment Theresa May is delivering

:05:08. > :05:14.pretty much everything Ukip figures might want to see. We might find the

:05:15. > :05:17.phrase Brexit means Brexit quite anodyne but I think she is

:05:18. > :05:22.convincing people she will press ahead with their agenda and deliver

:05:23. > :05:27.the leave vote that people buy a slim majority voted for. Should that

:05:28. > :05:30.change, should there be talk of transition periods, shut the

:05:31. > :05:35.migration settlement not make people happy, then I think Ukip risks

:05:36. > :05:40.charging back up the centre ground and causing more problems in future.

:05:41. > :05:45.That could be a two year gap in which Ukip would have to survive. As

:05:46. > :05:46.I said, Ukip is on our agenda for today.

:05:47. > :05:48.Thursday was a big night for political obsessives

:05:49. > :05:53.like us, with not one but two significant by-elections,

:05:54. > :06:01.Ellie braved the wind and rain to bring you this report.

:06:02. > :06:05.The clouds had gathered, the winds blew at gale force.

:06:06. > :06:10.Was a change in the air, or just a weather system called Doris?

:06:11. > :06:13.Voters in Stoke-on-Trent were about to find out.

:06:14. > :06:17.It's here, a sports hall on a Thursday night

:06:18. > :06:23.that the country's media reckon is the true eye of the storm.

:06:24. > :06:25.Would Labour suffer a lightning strike to its very heart,

:06:26. > :06:28.or would the Ukip threat proved to be a damp squib?

:06:29. > :06:31.Everybody seems to think the result in Stoke-on-Trent would be close,

:06:32. > :06:34.just as they did 150-odd miles away in Copeland, where the Tories

:06:35. > :06:39.are counting on stealing another Labour heartland seat.

:06:40. > :06:47.Areas of high pressure in both places, and some strange sights.

:06:48. > :06:49.We knew this wasn't a normal by-election, and to prove it

:06:50. > :06:51.there is the rapper, Professor Green.

:06:52. > :06:54.Chart-toppers aside, winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade

:06:55. > :06:57.was announced first, where everyone was so excited

:06:58. > :07:01.the candidates didn't even make it onto the stage for the result.

:07:02. > :07:04.And I do hereby declare that the said Gareth Snell

:07:05. > :07:12.Nigel Farage has said that victory here in Stoke-on-Trent

:07:13. > :07:19.But Ukip's newish leader played down the defeat,

:07:20. > :07:22.insisting his party's time would come.

:07:23. > :07:28.Are you going to stand again as an MP or has this

:07:29. > :07:31.No doubt I will stand again, don't worry about that.

:07:32. > :07:40.The politics of hope beat the politics of fear.

:07:41. > :07:43.I think Ukip are the ones this weekend who have got

:07:44. > :07:48.But a few minutes later, it turned out Labour had

:07:49. > :07:52.Harrison, Trudy Lynn, the Conservative Party

:07:53. > :08:03.That was more than 2,000 votes ahead of Labour.

:08:04. > :08:08.What has happened here tonight is a truly historic event.

:08:09. > :08:10.Labour were disappointed, but determined to be optimistic

:08:11. > :08:21.At a point when we're 15 to 18 points behind in the polls...

:08:22. > :08:25.The Conservatives within 2000 votes I think is an incredible

:08:26. > :08:30.The morning after the night before, the losing parties

:08:31. > :08:34.were licking their wounds and their lips over breakfast.

:08:35. > :08:37.For years and years, Ukip was Nigel Farage,

:08:38. > :08:44.That has now changed, that era has gone.

:08:45. > :08:46.It's a new era, it is a second age for us.

:08:47. > :08:51.So that needs to be more fully embedded,

:08:52. > :08:54.it needs to be more defined, you know, and that will

:08:55. > :09:03.We have to continue to improve in seats where we have stood.

:09:04. > :09:05.As we have done here, we've improved on our 2015 result,

:09:06. > :09:08.that's what important, is that we are taking steps

:09:09. > :09:13.Can I be the first to come here today to congratulate

:09:14. > :09:16.you on being elected the new MP for Stoke on Trent Central.

:09:17. > :09:19.Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived in Stoke to welcome his newest MP.

:09:20. > :09:24.Not sure he's going to Copeland later though.

:09:25. > :09:27.Earlier in the day, the Labour leader had made clear he'd

:09:28. > :09:29.considered and discounted some theories about the party's

:09:30. > :09:35.Since you found out that you'd lost a seat to a governing

:09:36. > :09:39.party for the first time since the Falklands War,

:09:40. > :09:42.have you at any point this morning looked in the mirror and asked

:09:43. > :09:47.yourself this question - could the problem actually be me?

:09:48. > :09:54.In the end it was the Conservatives who came out on top.

:09:55. > :09:57.No governing party has made a gain at a by-election

:09:58. > :10:03.With the self-styled people's army of Ukip halted in Stoke,

:10:04. > :10:07.and Labour's wash-out here in Copeland...

:10:08. > :10:19.There's little chance of rain on Theresa May's parade.

:10:20. > :10:22.In the wake of that loss in Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party

:10:23. > :10:24.has been meeting for its spring conference in the

:10:25. > :10:29.Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson warned delegates that unless Labour

:10:30. > :10:31.took the by-election defeat seriously, the party's devastation

:10:32. > :10:34.in Scotland could be repeated south of the border.

:10:35. > :10:36.Well, I'm joined now by the leader of Scottish Labour,

:10:37. > :10:52.Even after your party had lost Copeland to the Tories and with

:10:53. > :10:57.Labour now trailing 16 points in the UK polls, you claim to have every

:10:58. > :11:00.faith that Jeremy Corbyn would absolutely win the general election.

:11:01. > :11:07.What evidence can you bring to support that? There is no doubt the

:11:08. > :11:11.result in Copeland was disappointing for the Labour Party and I think

:11:12. > :11:14.it's a collective feeling for everyone within the Labour Party and

:11:15. > :11:17.I want to do what I can to turn around the fortunes of our party.

:11:18. > :11:24.That's what I've committed to do while I have been the Scottish

:11:25. > :11:28.Labour leader. This two years ago we were down the mines so to speak in

:11:29. > :11:31.terms of losing the faith of working class communities across the

:11:32. > :11:36.country, but we listened very hard to the message voters are sending

:11:37. > :11:39.and responded to it. That's what I'm committed to doing in Scotland and

:11:40. > :11:47.that's what Jeremy Corbyn is committed to doing UK wide. The

:11:48. > :11:50.latest polls put Labour at 14% in Scotland, the Tories at ten points

:11:51. > :11:56.ahead of you in Scotland, even Theresa May is more popular than

:11:57. > :12:02.Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will try again - why are you so sure

:12:03. > :12:07.Jeremy Corbyn could win a general election? What I said when you are

:12:08. > :12:11.talking about Scotland is that I'm the leader of the Scottish Labour

:12:12. > :12:14.Party and I take responsibility for our policies here. Voters said very

:12:15. > :12:17.clearly after the Scottish Parliament election that they didn't

:12:18. > :12:22.have a clear enough sense of what we stood for so I have been advocating

:12:23. > :12:25.a very strong anti-austerity platform, coming up with ideas of

:12:26. > :12:29.how we can oppose the cuts and invest in our future. That is

:12:30. > :12:32.something Jeremy Corbyn also supports but I've also made it clear

:12:33. > :12:40.this weekend that we are opposed to a second independence referendum. I

:12:41. > :12:42.want to bring Scotland back together by focusing on the future and that's

:12:43. > :12:48.why I have been speaking about the federal solution for the UK. I know

:12:49. > :12:52.that Jeremy Corbyn shares that ambition because he is backing the

:12:53. > :12:58.plans for a people's Constitutional Convention. Yes, these are difficult

:12:59. > :13:02.times for the Scottish Labour Party and UK family, but I have a plan in

:13:03. > :13:09.place to turn things around. It will take time though. I'm still not sure

:13:10. > :13:14.why you are so sure the Labour party can win but let me come onto your

:13:15. > :13:19.plan. You want a UK wide Constitutional Convention and that

:13:20. > :13:24.lead to a new Federalist settlement. Is it the policy of the Labour

:13:25. > :13:31.Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to carve England into federal regions?

:13:32. > :13:35.What we support at a UK wide level is the people's constitutional

:13:36. > :13:38.convention. I have been careful to prescribe what I think is in the

:13:39. > :13:41.best interests of Scotland but not to dictate to other parts of the UK

:13:42. > :13:47.what is good for them, that's the point of the people's constitutional

:13:48. > :13:51.convention. You heard Tom Watson say there has to be a UK wide

:13:52. > :13:55.conversation about power, who has it and how it is exercised across

:13:56. > :13:59.England. England hasn't been part of this devolution story over the last

:14:00. > :14:05.20 years, it is something that happened between Scotland and London

:14:06. > :14:08.or Wales and London. No wonder people in England feel

:14:09. > :14:14.disenfranchised from that. What evidence can you bring to show there

:14:15. > :14:18.is any appetite in England for an English federal solution to England,

:14:19. > :14:22.to carve England into federal regions? Have you spoken to John

:14:23. > :14:26.Prescott about this? He might tell you some of the difficulties.

:14:27. > :14:32.There's not even a debate about that here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy.

:14:33. > :14:36.I speak to John Prescott regularly. What there is a debate about is the

:14:37. > :14:40.idea the world is changing so fast that globalisation is taking jobs

:14:41. > :14:44.away from communities in the north-east, that many working class

:14:45. > :14:47.communities feel left behind, that Westminster feels very far away and

:14:48. > :14:52.the politicians within it feel remote in part of the establishment.

:14:53. > :14:55.People are fed up with power being exercised somewhere else, that's

:14:56. > :14:59.where I think federalism comes in because it's about bringing power

:15:00. > :15:08.closer to people and in many ways it's forced on us because of Brexit.

:15:09. > :15:10.We know the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union so we

:15:11. > :15:13.have to talk about the repatriation of those powers from Brussels to

:15:14. > :15:16.Britain. I want many of those powers to go to the Scottish parliament but

:15:17. > :15:19.where should they go in the English context? It is not as things

:15:20. > :15:22.currently stand the policy of the English Labour Party to carve

:15:23. > :15:27.England into federal regions, correct?

:15:28. > :15:32.It is absolutely the policy of the UK Labour Party to support the

:15:33. > :15:39.people's Constitutional convention to examining these questions. I

:15:40. > :15:42.think it is really important. You're promising the Scottish people a

:15:43. > :15:47.federal solution, and you have not even squared your own party for a

:15:48. > :15:52.federal solution in England. That is not true. The UK Labour Party is

:15:53. > :15:55.united on this. I am going to Cardiff next month to meet with

:15:56. > :16:00.Carwyn Jones and various leaders. United on a federal solution? You

:16:01. > :16:03.know as well as I know it is not united on a federal solution. We

:16:04. > :16:07.will have a conversation about power in this country. It is not united on

:16:08. > :16:32.that issue? This is the direction of

:16:33. > :16:35.travel. It is what you heard yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom

:16:36. > :16:37.Watson, when you hear from people like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle

:16:38. > :16:39.City Council and Labour's Local Government Association. There is an

:16:40. > :16:42.appetite for talking about power. Talking is one thing. We need to

:16:43. > :16:44.have this conversation across the whole of the United Kingdom, to have

:16:45. > :16:46.a reformed United Kingdom. It is a conversation you're offering

:16:47. > :16:49.Scotland, not the policy. Let's come onto the labour made of London. He

:16:50. > :16:51.was in power for your conference. He wrote in the record yesterday, there

:16:52. > :16:53.is no difference between Scottish nationalism and racism. Would you

:16:54. > :16:58.like this opportunity to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I

:16:59. > :17:02.think that Sadiq Khan was very clear yesterday that he was not accusing

:17:03. > :17:07.the SNP of racism. What he was saying clearly is that nationalism

:17:08. > :17:12.by its very nature divides people and communities. That is what I said

:17:13. > :17:16.in my speech yesterday. I am fed up living in a divided and fractured

:17:17. > :17:22.country and society. Our politics is forcing is constantly to pick sides,

:17:23. > :17:26.whether you're a no, leave a remain, it brings out the worst in our

:17:27. > :17:29.politicians and politics. All the consensus we find in the grey areas

:17:30. > :17:32.is lost. That is why am standing under a banner that together we are

:17:33. > :17:50.stronger. We have to come up with ideas and focus on the future. That

:17:51. > :17:52.is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He said quite clearly in the Daily

:17:53. > :17:54.Record yesterday, and that the last minute he adapted his speech to your

:17:55. > :17:57.conference yesterday, to try and reduce the impact, that there was no

:17:58. > :17:59.difference between Scottish nationalism and racism. Your

:18:00. > :18:03.colleague, and Sarwar, said that even after he had tried to introduce

:18:04. > :18:10.the caveats, all forms of nationalism rely on creating eyes

:18:11. > :18:15.and them. Let's call it for what it is. So you are implying that the

:18:16. > :18:20.Scottish Nationalists are racist. Would you care to distance yourself

:18:21. > :18:24.from that absurd claim? I utterly refute that that is what Sadiq Khan

:18:25. > :18:31.said. I would never suggest that the SNP are an inherently racist party.

:18:32. > :18:36.That does is a disservice. He did not see it. What he did say,

:18:37. > :18:41.however, is that nationalism is divisive. You know that better than

:18:42. > :18:45.anyone. I see your Twitter account. Regularly your attack for the job

:18:46. > :18:49.you do as a journalist. Politics in Scotland is divided on. I do not

:18:50. > :18:54.want to revisit that independence question again for that reason. As

:18:55. > :18:58.leader of the Labour Party, I want to bring our country back together,

:18:59. > :19:03.appeal to people who voted yes and no. That banner, together we are

:19:04. > :19:09.stronger, that is where the answers lie in defaulters can be found. If

:19:10. > :19:12.in response to the Mayor of London, your colleague says, let's call it

:19:13. > :19:20.out for what it is, what is he referring to if he is not implying

:19:21. > :19:25.that national symbol is racist? -- and that nationalism is racist? He

:19:26. > :19:29.is saying that it leads to divisive politics. The Labour Party has

:19:30. > :19:32.always advocated that together we are stronger. Saying something is

:19:33. > :19:37.divisive is very different from saying something is racist. That is

:19:38. > :19:42.what the Mayor of London said. That is what your colleague was referring

:19:43. > :19:48.to. He did not. You would really struggle to quote that from the

:19:49. > :19:53.Mayor of London. He talked about being divided by race. What does

:19:54. > :19:58.that mean? I think he was very clear that he was talking about divided

:19:59. > :20:02.politics. There is an appetite the length and breadth of the country to

:20:03. > :20:07.end that divisive politics. That is what I stand for, focusing on the

:20:08. > :20:10.future, bringing people back together, concentrating on what the

:20:11. > :20:13.economy might look like in 20 years' time in coming up with ideas to

:20:14. > :20:15.tackle it today. Thank you for joining us.

:20:16. > :20:17.Thursday's win for Labour in Stoke-on-Trent Central

:20:18. > :20:19.gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn, but for Ukip leader and defeated

:20:20. > :20:22.Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall there were no consolation prizes.

:20:23. > :20:24.I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's principal political

:20:25. > :20:34.Welcome to the programme. Good morning. How long will Paul Nuttall

:20:35. > :20:39.survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks, months? You are in danger of not

:20:40. > :20:44.seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip was formed in 1993 with the express

:20:45. > :20:48.purpose, much mocked, of getting Britain out of the European Union.

:20:49. > :20:52.Under the brilliant leadership of Nigel Farage, we were crucial in

:20:53. > :20:59.forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to make a referendum promise he did not

:21:00. > :21:01.want to give. With our friends in Fort leave and other organisations.

:21:02. > :21:09.Mac we know that. Get to the answer. We helped to win that referendum.

:21:10. > :21:13.The iteration of Ukip at the moment that we're in, the primary purpose,

:21:14. > :21:19.we are the guard dog of Brexit. Viewed through that prism, the Stoke

:21:20. > :21:23.by-election was a brilliant success. A brilliant success? We had the Tory

:21:24. > :21:28.candidate that had pumped out publicity for Remain, for Cameron

:21:29. > :21:32.Bradley, preaching the gospel of Brexit. We had a Labour candidate

:21:33. > :21:37.and we know what he really felt about Brexit, preaching the Gospel

:21:38. > :21:51.according to Brexit. You lost. Well the by-election was going on, we had

:21:52. > :21:55.the Labour Party in the House of Commons pass the idea of trickling

:21:56. > :21:57.Article 50 by a landslide. Are passionate thing, the thing that

:21:58. > :21:59.35,000 Ukip members care about the most, it is an extraordinary

:22:00. > :22:02.achievement. I am very proud. What would you have described as victory

:22:03. > :22:04.as? If we could have got Paul Nuttall into the House of Commons,

:22:05. > :22:10.that would have been a fantastic cherry on the top. Losing was an

:22:11. > :22:14.extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip supporters the Stoke was winnable,

:22:15. > :22:20.but Paul Nuttall's campaign was marred by controversy, Tory voters

:22:21. > :22:28.refuse to vote tactically for Ukip to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr

:22:29. > :22:33.Nuttall is to blame for not winning what was a winnable seat? I do not

:22:34. > :22:36.see that at all. This is counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn

:22:37. > :22:42.did do one thing that made it more difficult for us to win. Fantasy.

:22:43. > :22:48.That was to take Labour into a Brexit position formerly. Just over

:22:49. > :22:51.50 Labour MPs had voted against triggering Article 50. In political

:22:52. > :22:56.terms, we have intimidated the Labour Party into backing Brexit.

:22:57. > :23:10.How much good is it doing you? It comes to the heart

:23:11. > :23:14.of the problem your party faces. You're struggling to win Tory

:23:15. > :23:16.Eurosceptic voters. For the moment, they seem happy with Theresa May.

:23:17. > :23:18.Stoke shows you're not winning Labour Brexit voters either. If you

:23:19. > :23:20.cannot get the solution Tolisso labour, where does your Broad come

:23:21. > :23:23.from? In terms of the by-election, it came very early for Paul. I'm

:23:24. > :23:27.talking about the future. We have a future agenda, and ideological

:23:28. > :23:33.argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, which is wedded to the notion

:23:34. > :23:36.of global citizenship and does not recognise the nation state. We know

:23:37. > :23:40.he spent Christmas sitting around campfires with Mexican Marxist

:23:41. > :23:43.dreaming of global government. We believe in the nation state. We

:23:44. > :23:50.believe that the patriotic working class vote will be receptive to

:23:51. > :23:54.that. Your Broad went down by 9% in Cortland. In Copeland we were

:23:55. > :24:01.squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable to squeeze the Tories, who are on a

:24:02. > :24:05.high. Our agenda is that social solidarity is important but we

:24:06. > :24:09.arrange it in this country by nation and community. We want an

:24:10. > :24:14.immigration system that is not only reducing... We know what you want. I

:24:15. > :24:18.do not think people do. You had a whole by-election to tell people and

:24:19. > :24:23.they did not vote for you and. When Nigel Farage said it was fundamental

:24:24. > :24:28.that you were winner in Stoke, he was wrong? Nigel chooses his own

:24:29. > :24:35.words. I would not rewrite them. It would be a massive advantage to Ukip

:24:36. > :24:37.to have a leader in the House of Commons in time to reply to the

:24:38. > :24:40.budget, Prime Minister's questions and all of that. But we have taken

:24:41. > :24:46.the strategic view that we will fight the Labour Party for the

:24:47. > :24:49.working class vote. It is also true that the Conservatives will make a

:24:50. > :24:53.pitch for the working class vote might as well. All three parties

:24:54. > :24:58.have certain advantages and disadvantages. As part of that page,

:24:59. > :25:02.Nigel Farage said that your leader, Paul Nuttall, should have taken a

:25:03. > :25:07.clear, by which I assume he meant tough, line on immigration. Do you

:25:08. > :25:12.agree? He took a tough line on immigration. He developed that idea

:25:13. > :25:16.at our party conference in the spring. Nigel Farage did not think

:25:17. > :25:20.so? Nigel Farage made his speech before Paul Nuttall made his speech.

:25:21. > :25:28.He said this in the aftermath of the result. Once we have freedom to

:25:29. > :25:32.control and Borders, Paul wants to set up an immigration system that

:25:33. > :25:39.includes an aptitude test, do you have skills that the British economy

:25:40. > :25:43.needs, but also, and attitudes test, do you subscribe to core British

:25:44. > :25:47.values such as gender equality and freedom of expression? We will be

:25:48. > :25:52.making these arguments. It is certainly true that Paul's campaign

:25:53. > :25:55.was thrown off course by, particularly something that we knew

:25:56. > :26:00.the Labour Party had been preparing to run, the smear on the untruths,

:26:01. > :26:04.the implications about Hillsborough. If you knew you should have

:26:05. > :26:10.anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps to bankroll your party, he said that

:26:11. > :26:15.Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the Tory cabal in Europe, by which he

:26:16. > :26:20.means Douglas Carswell, Neil Hamilton. Should they be stripped of

:26:21. > :26:24.their membership? Of course not. As far as I knew, Alan Banks was a

:26:25. > :26:28.member of the Conservative Party formally. I do not know who this

:26:29. > :26:32.Tory cabal is supposed to be. He says that your party is more like a

:26:33. > :26:36.jumble sale than a political party. He says that the party should make

:26:37. > :26:41.him chairman or they will work. What do you see to that? He has made that

:26:42. > :26:45.statement several times over many months, including if you do not

:26:46. > :26:49.throw out your only MP. Douglas Carswell has managed to win twice

:26:50. > :26:53.under Ukip colours. Should Tibi chairman? I think we have an

:26:54. > :27:00.excellent young chairman at the moment. He is doing a good job. The

:27:01. > :27:06.idea that Leave.EU was as smooth running brilliant machine, that does

:27:07. > :27:10.not sit with the facts as I understand them. Suzanne Evans says

:27:11. > :27:14.it would be no great loss for Ukip if Mr Banks walked out, severed his

:27:15. > :27:18.ties and took his money elsewhere. Is she right. I am always happy

:27:19. > :27:23.people who want to give money and support your party want to stay in

:27:24. > :27:28.the party. The best donors donate and do not seek to dictate. If they

:27:29. > :27:31.are experts in certain fields, people should listen to their views

:27:32. > :27:35.but to have a daughter telling the party leader who should be party

:27:36. > :27:40.chairman, that is a nonstarter. You have described your existing party

:27:41. > :27:46.chairman is excellent. He said it could be 20 years before Ukip wins

:27:47. > :27:49.by-election. Is he being too optimistic? There is a general

:27:50. > :27:54.election coming up in the years' time. We will be aiming to win seats

:27:55. > :27:59.in that. Before that, we will be the guard dog for Brexit, to make sure

:28:00. > :28:03.this extraordinary achievement of a little party... You are guard dog

:28:04. > :28:07.without a kennel, you cannot get seat? We're keeping the big

:28:08. > :28:13.establishment parties to do the will of the people. If we achieve nothing

:28:14. > :28:14.else at all, that will be a magnificent achievement. Thank you

:28:15. > :28:16.very much. Sweden isn't somewhere

:28:17. > :28:17.we talk about often should because this

:28:18. > :28:21.week it was pulled into the global spotlight,

:28:22. > :28:22.thanks Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked

:28:23. > :28:31.for referring to an incident that had occurred last night in Sweden

:28:32. > :28:34.as a result of the country's open Critics were quick to point out that

:28:35. > :28:38.no such incident had occurred and Mr Trump later clarified

:28:39. > :28:40.on Twitter and he was talking about a report he had

:28:41. > :28:44.watched on Fox News. But as if to prove

:28:45. > :28:46.he was onto something, next day a riot broke out

:28:47. > :28:49.in a Stockholm suburb with a large migrant population,

:28:50. > :28:51.following unrest in such areas So what has been Sweden's

:28:52. > :29:01.experience of migration? In 2015, a record 162,000 people

:29:02. > :29:03.claimed asylum there, the second That number dropped to 29,000

:29:04. > :29:10.in 2016 after the country introduced border restrictions and stopped

:29:11. > :29:12.offering permanent Tensions have risen,

:29:13. > :29:20.along with claims of links to crime, although official statistics do not

:29:21. > :29:22.provide evidence of a refugee driven Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump,

:29:23. > :29:31.claiming this week that migrants have led to a dramatic rise

:29:32. > :29:34.in sexual offences. Although the country does

:29:35. > :29:36.have the highest reported rate of rape in Europe,

:29:37. > :29:38.Swedish authorities say recent rises were due to changes to how rape

:29:39. > :29:44.and sex crimes are recorded. Aside from the issue of crime,

:29:45. > :29:46.Sweden has struggled Levels of inequality between natives

:29:47. > :29:52.and migrants when it comes Unemployment rates are three times

:29:53. > :29:55.higher for foreign-born workers We're joined now by Laila Naraghi,

:29:56. > :30:08.she's a Swedish MP from the governing Social Democratic Party,

:30:09. > :30:24.and by the author and The Swedish political establishment

:30:25. > :30:27.was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks, pointing to a riot that hadn't taken

:30:28. > :30:31.place, then a few nights later serious riots did break out in a

:30:32. > :30:37.largely migrant suburb of Stockholm so he wasn't far out, was he? I

:30:38. > :30:43.think he was far out because he is misleading the public with how he

:30:44. > :30:46.uses these statistics. I think it is important to remember that the

:30:47. > :30:49.violence has decreased in Sweden for the past 20 years and research shows

:30:50. > :30:58.there is no evidence that indicate that immigration leads to crime and

:30:59. > :31:02.so I think it is far out. The social unrest in these different areas is

:31:03. > :31:05.not because of their ethical backgrounds of these people living

:31:06. > :31:13.there but more about social economic reasons. OK, no evidence migrants

:31:14. > :31:19.are responsible for any kind of crime? This story reminds me after

:31:20. > :31:23.what happened to the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris when also a Fox

:31:24. > :31:29.News commentator said something that was outlandish about Paris and the

:31:30. > :31:34.Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox News, saying you are making our city

:31:35. > :31:38.look bad. It's a bit like that because the truth on this lies

:31:39. > :31:41.between Donald Trump on the Swedish authorities on this. Sweden and

:31:42. > :31:47.Swedish government is very reluctant to admit any downsides of its own

:31:48. > :31:52.migration policy and particularly the migration it hard in 2015 but

:31:53. > :31:58.there are very obvious downsides because Sweden is not a country that

:31:59. > :32:03.needs a non-skilled labour force which doesn't speak Swedish. What

:32:04. > :32:08.was raised as the matter of evidence, what is the evidence?

:32:09. > :32:12.First of all if I can say so the rape statistics in Sweden that have

:32:13. > :32:16.been cited are familiar with the rape statistics across other

:32:17. > :32:18.countries that have seen similar forms of migration. Danish

:32:19. > :32:24.authorities and the Norwegian authorities have recorded a similar

:32:25. > :32:31.thing. It is not done by ethnicity so we don't know. And this is part

:32:32. > :32:37.of the problem. It is again a lot of lies and rumours going about. When

:32:38. > :32:41.it is about for example rape, it is difficult to compare the statistics

:32:42. > :32:45.because in Sweden for example many crimes that in other countries are

:32:46. > :32:51.labelled as bodily harm or assault are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also

:32:52. > :32:57.how it is counted because if a woman goes to the police and reports that

:32:58. > :33:06.her husband or boyfriend has raped her, and done it every night for one

:33:07. > :33:10.year, in Sweden that is counted as 365 offences. Something is going

:33:11. > :33:14.wrong, I look at the recent news from Sweden. Six Afghan child

:33:15. > :33:16.refugees committed suicide in the last six months, unemployment among

:33:17. > :33:23.recent migrants now five times higher than among non-migrants. We

:33:24. > :33:29.have seen gang violence in Malmo where a British child was killed by

:33:30. > :33:33.a grenade, rioting in Stockholm. Police in Sweden say there are 53

:33:34. > :33:39.areas of the country where it is now dangerous to patrol. Something has

:33:40. > :33:45.gone wrong. Let me get back to what I think is the core of this debate

:33:46. > :33:49.if I may and that is the right for people fleeing war and political

:33:50. > :33:53.persecution to seek asylum, that is a human right. In Sweden we don't

:33:54. > :33:58.think we can do everything, but we want to live up to our obligation,

:33:59. > :34:01.every country has an obligation to receive asylum seekers. But you have

:34:02. > :34:07.changed your policy on that because having taken 163,001 year alone, you

:34:08. > :34:12.have then closed your borders, I think very wisely, closed the border

:34:13. > :34:16.which means 10,000 people per day at one point were walking from Denmark

:34:17. > :34:22.in to Malmo, you rightly changed that so he realised whatever ones

:34:23. > :34:25.aspirations in terms of asylum, it sometimes meets reality and Sweden

:34:26. > :34:31.is meeting the reality of this. Let's respond to that. We are not

:34:32. > :34:34.naive, we know we cannot do everything but we want to try to do

:34:35. > :34:39.our share as we think other countries also need to do their

:34:40. > :34:42.share. But let me say that, if you look at what the World Economic

:34:43. > :34:47.Forum is saying about our country they show we are in the top of many

:34:48. > :34:56.rankings, the best country to live in, to age in, to have children in,

:34:57. > :35:03.to start into -- to start enterprise. Why have you not been so

:35:04. > :35:07.good at integrating migrants? The unemployment rate is five times

:35:08. > :35:11.higher among migrants than non-migrants and that's the highest

:35:12. > :35:15.ratio of any country in the EU and the OECD, why have you not been able

:35:16. > :35:21.to integrate the people you have brought in for humanitarian reasons?

:35:22. > :35:24.I'm sure there are things we can do much better of course but if you

:35:25. > :35:29.look for example at the immigration that came in the 90s from the

:35:30. > :35:33.Balkans, they are well integrated and contributing to our society.

:35:34. > :35:37.They are starting enterprises and working in different fields of

:35:38. > :35:46.society, and they help our country. Why have they not got jobs, the

:35:47. > :35:51.migrants that have come in? It takes time. In the 90s we managed it and

:35:52. > :35:55.I'm sure we can do it again. Can I put this into some context, it is

:35:56. > :35:59.clear Sweden has got problems as a result of the number of migrants

:36:00. > :36:03.that come in, whether it is as bad as Mr Trump and others make out is

:36:04. > :36:08.another matter, but perhaps I can put it into context. Malmo, which

:36:09. > :36:15.has been at the centre of many of these migrant problems, its homicide

:36:16. > :36:21.rate is three per hundred thousand. Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have

:36:22. > :36:25.problems but they are not huge. No, they are pretty huge and I think

:36:26. > :36:29.they will grow. The Balkan refugees into Sweden in the 90s did bring a

:36:30. > :36:35.lot of problems and Sweden did for the first time see serious ethnic

:36:36. > :36:40.gang rivalries. There was an upsurge in gang-related violence that has

:36:41. > :36:43.gone on since. The situation in Malmo in particular is exaggerated

:36:44. > :36:48.by some people, there's no doubt about that, I have been there many

:36:49. > :36:53.times and it is undoubtedly exaggerated by some, it is also

:36:54. > :37:03.vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish authorities. -- understated. In

:37:04. > :37:12.2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo registered some form of attack on

:37:13. > :37:17.them. It got so bad that in 2010 people offered to escort Jews... You

:37:18. > :37:24.have had a good say and I have got to be fair here, what do you say to

:37:25. > :37:27.that, Laila Naraghi? There are people trying to frame our country

:37:28. > :37:31.in a certain way to push their own agenda. I regret that President

:37:32. > :37:38.Trump is trying to slander our country. But what about the specific

:37:39. > :37:42.point on Malmo? If you speak to people in Malmo and also to

:37:43. > :37:45.different congregations, they say they are working together with the

:37:46. > :37:51.authorities to improve this. I say again, there are a lot of people

:37:52. > :37:56.trying to spread rumours and lies. Your situation is very like the

:37:57. > :38:01.situation we had in Britain when we have these situations in Rotherham

:38:02. > :38:04.and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped in Rotherham before police even

:38:05. > :38:09.admitted it was going on. That happened in Britain in the last

:38:10. > :38:13.decade, a similar phenomenon. An upsurge in particularly sexual and

:38:14. > :38:17.other forms of violence and then total denial by an entire political

:38:18. > :38:21.class is now something that is happening in Sweden. I see it in

:38:22. > :38:26.Swedish authorities and the denial that comes up and the desire to

:38:27. > :38:29.laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not answer nothing and that's a painful

:38:30. > :38:39.thing for any society to want to admit to. There are number of Swedes

:38:40. > :38:44.who think the establishment is covering up the true statistics,

:38:45. > :38:47.that you don't break crime down by ethnic crimes, people are suspicious

:38:48. > :38:54.of the centre-left and centre-right parties now in Sweden. There is no

:38:55. > :38:57.denial and no cover-up. This is what I'm speaking about when I say people

:38:58. > :39:00.are trying to frame it in a certain way. The social unrest is not

:39:01. > :39:05.because of the ethnical background of the people living there but

:39:06. > :39:08.rather because of different socioeconomics conditions. There is

:39:09. > :39:14.no research that shows immigration... But you don't do the

:39:15. > :39:17.research into it. Swedish authorities deliberately ensure you

:39:18. > :39:23.cannot carry out such research and after the attacks in Cologne in 2015

:39:24. > :39:26.it was the first time then that the Swedish authorities and press

:39:27. > :39:31.admitted that similar sexual molestation have been going on for

:39:32. > :39:36.years in Sweden. Is it right to think, given the problem is maybe

:39:37. > :39:42.not as bad as many people make out but clearly problems, given these

:39:43. > :39:47.problems, is the age of mass asylum seeking for Sweden over? You have

:39:48. > :39:50.cut the numbers by 80% coming in last year compared with 2015, is it

:39:51. > :39:56.over while you concentrate on getting right the people that you

:39:57. > :39:59.have there already? We want to do our share, we have done a lot and

:40:00. > :40:01.now we are concentrating of course on integration and making sure

:40:02. > :40:17.people get a job, and also on big welfare investments because

:40:18. > :40:19.it's important to remember that for eight years Sweden were governed by

:40:20. > :40:22.a government that prioritised big tax cuts instead of investment in

:40:23. > :40:24.welfare. It may just not work. I am grateful to you both, we have to

:40:25. > :40:25.leave it there. It's coming up to 11:40am,

:40:26. > :40:27.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:40:28. > :40:30.in Scotland, who leave us now the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking

:40:31. > :40:37.if the Government is facing defeat Yes, hello, you're watching

:40:38. > :40:39.the Sunday Politics Coming up today: They failed

:40:40. > :40:45.in Stoke, but are Ukip's electoral sights still

:40:46. > :40:47.set on Labour's northern heartlands? Could it be time

:40:48. > :40:52.for a change of plan? And time for some

:40:53. > :40:54.radical treatment for the NHS after a Sunday Politics

:40:55. > :40:57.investigation shows Yorkshire and Lincolnshire's hospitals

:40:58. > :41:00.are spending more money Patient safety is everything

:41:01. > :41:05.to us and that trumps any financial consideration, but, again,

:41:06. > :41:09.we've got good systems of control for agreeing exactly how much

:41:10. > :41:19.we will pay agency staff. Well, Ukip has never made

:41:20. > :41:21.any secret of the fact that Labour's northern

:41:22. > :41:23.strongholds are part of their target strategy

:41:24. > :41:25.in the hunt for those elusive

:41:26. > :41:27.parliamentary seats, but after failing to win the Stoke

:41:28. > :41:31.by-election, is Ukip really a force to be reckoned with in our

:41:32. > :41:34.industrial heartlands? As for Labour, that

:41:35. > :41:37.defeat in Copeland has prompted one polling organisation

:41:38. > :41:40.to suggest the party is facing a growing disconnect

:41:41. > :41:43.with its traditional working-class supporters

:41:44. > :41:45.in the north. If I was Labour strategist,

:41:46. > :41:48.I would be worried not just about the fact that it appears

:41:49. > :41:51.they weren't making any ground, but it appeared also

:41:52. > :41:54.that they were losing ground in particular areas

:41:55. > :41:56.such as the north-east and the north-west, these former

:41:57. > :41:59.industrial heartlands. And if they are going to win

:42:00. > :42:04.a general election, or if those MPs are even going to hold

:42:05. > :42:06.onto their seat, then it is certainly looking

:42:07. > :42:09.at the moment like the party Now, of course, a lot

:42:10. > :42:12.can change between now and the general election, not least

:42:13. > :42:15.all the negotiations about Brexit, but certainly, this is not

:42:16. > :42:17.a position that you would want to be in if you were a

:42:18. > :42:20.Labour MP in the north. How Jeremy Corbyn balances

:42:21. > :42:23.the priorities of, if you like, the North London, Islington liberals

:42:24. > :42:26.and the working-class areas of the North is a very difficult

:42:27. > :42:30.balancing act for him to make. Well, we're joined today

:42:31. > :42:32.by Richard Burgon, Labour Shadow Justice Secretary

:42:33. > :42:35.and MP for Leeds East. Also by John Proctor,

:42:36. > :42:38.Conservative MEP for Yorkshire and Humber and in Hull for us today

:42:39. > :42:41.is Mike Hookum, Ukip MEP for Yorkshire and

:42:42. > :42:45.North Lincolnshire. Richard Burgon, do the events

:42:46. > :42:49.of the past few days suggest that Labour is in real danger now

:42:50. > :42:53.of losing its natural position as the dominant political

:42:54. > :42:56.party of the North? Well, first of all, I was pleased

:42:57. > :42:59.that Labour won in Stoke despite Ukip's new leader Paul

:43:00. > :43:03.Nuttal thinking it was the I think his campaign

:43:04. > :43:09.showed that when it comes to campaigning ability,

:43:10. > :43:12.and when it comes to electoral appeal, Ukip have taken a step down

:43:13. > :43:17.since Nigel Farage, but as for Copeland,

:43:18. > :43:19.I was obviously very disappointed that we didn't win in Copeland,

:43:20. > :43:23.but it's not and has not been Obviously, we need to win that back,

:43:24. > :43:31.but the newspapers quite correctly Yes, we've had all the spin about

:43:32. > :43:36.Copeland over the past few days. The fact is the Labour vote

:43:37. > :43:39.is going into freefall. Do you admit there's

:43:40. > :43:41.a crisis in your party? Well, Labour won by 2000

:43:42. > :43:44.votes in the general election and we lost by about 2000

:43:45. > :43:47.votes in the election Labour won in Stoke,

:43:48. > :43:55.we've got Ukip on the retreat. That was their top person

:43:56. > :43:59.standing there and I think people in our region

:44:00. > :44:03.are angry at what the Government has done to our NHS, angry

:44:04. > :44:06.at what the Government has done Well, they are angry

:44:07. > :44:11.enough to vote Labour. They did so in Stoke

:44:12. > :44:13.and I think they will do so in seats that at are

:44:14. > :44:15.more representative And one more thing I

:44:16. > :44:19.would say is there are commentators in London who maybe

:44:20. > :44:22.have never been to the North Copeland is very different

:44:23. > :44:25.from Leeds, which is different from Barnsley and Sheffield,

:44:26. > :44:28.so I think people from the outside have got to understand,

:44:29. > :44:30.Copeland doesn't represent All right, Mike Hookum,

:44:31. > :44:33.Stoke was a massive failure You're never going to win

:44:34. > :44:36.Labour seats in the North. You know, I don't think that night

:44:37. > :44:48.last night was very good When you look at it,

:44:49. > :44:53.you have now a Member of Parliament that is going

:44:54. > :45:00.into Westminster on 7000 votes. Out of a possible 62,000

:45:01. > :45:02.votes, he is going I think it was a poor

:45:03. > :45:06.night for politics, never mind just Ukip,

:45:07. > :45:07.Labour and the Conservatives. But what it shows, Mike Hookum,

:45:08. > :45:10.is areas that voted Brexit don't necessarily

:45:11. > :45:13.want a Ukip MP, do they? We will be having a day break

:45:14. > :45:20.to see where we went wrong, But what we had again

:45:21. > :45:27.have to say is the Labour candidate, I have to say, is one

:45:28. > :45:30.of the worst candidates This is a guy who said his

:45:31. > :45:34.girlfriend is half Muslim. Is it the top half, right

:45:35. > :45:38.half, what half is it? This guy, you know, he's now

:45:39. > :45:41.in there with 7000 votes. We'll bring Richard Burgon back

:45:42. > :45:46.on that in a moment, but let me just talk

:45:47. > :45:48.to John Proctor. I mean, some in the Tory party said

:45:49. > :45:52.this was a dream scenario for you. You gave Labour a bloody nose

:45:53. > :45:55.in Copeland but not a killer blow in order to get rid of

:45:56. > :45:58.Jeremy Corbyn. I don't know that we

:45:59. > :46:02.wanted to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, to be

:46:03. > :46:04.quite frank about it. I'm very, very pleased

:46:05. > :46:10.at the result in Copeland. We had a fantastic

:46:11. > :46:14.candidate in there. I spent the whole of

:46:15. > :46:17.the election day in Copeland. The reception on the doorstep

:46:18. > :46:21.was fantastic for us, so clearly, There's a lot of work to do

:46:22. > :46:25.and Trudy Harrison will I'm sure she'll hold it come

:46:26. > :46:29.the general election. When you come to look

:46:30. > :46:32.at Stoke, again, I think we did a reasonable job

:46:33. > :46:35.there but to a degree I would go with Mike

:46:36. > :46:37.on that, actually. It is pretty poor,

:46:38. > :46:40.the turnout that we saw in Stoke across the board and I think

:46:41. > :46:43.all political parties... Well, political parties always use

:46:44. > :46:46.turnout as an excuse, I know. Richard Burgon, fighting talk

:46:47. > :46:47.there from Mike Hookum. He still thinks Ukip can win

:46:48. > :46:52.Labour seats in the North. Well, Mike says that

:46:53. > :46:55.Labour had the worst candidate But if he's the worst candidate

:46:56. > :47:01.he's ever seen, When it was Ukip's top

:47:02. > :47:06.person standing in a seat that voted to leave

:47:07. > :47:10.the European Union, and despite Ukip's falsehoods

:47:11. > :47:13.that Labour is trying to block the outcome of the EU

:47:14. > :47:17.referendum, what this showed is that people weren't taken

:47:18. > :47:20.in, so they didn't believe Paul Nuttal

:47:21. > :47:21.on his claims about his own past or present

:47:22. > :47:25.and they didn't believe Ukip's falsehood that Labour

:47:26. > :47:27.is trying to somehow subvert the will of

:47:28. > :47:29.the British people. Where does this leave

:47:30. > :47:31.Paul Nuttal, your leader, I mean, his credibility has been

:47:32. > :47:36.shot to pieces during this And, you know, I have to say,

:47:37. > :47:45.again, it was a poor show Paul came under ten days of

:47:46. > :47:52.increased, incredible pressure from the Guardian and other left-wing

:47:53. > :47:56.papers, coming out But it was his own people who put

:47:57. > :48:03.the falsehoods on his website. One press officer who

:48:04. > :48:06.has now stepped down. But this guy, he shouldn't

:48:07. > :48:10.be in Westminster. He's a terrible, terrible, you know,

:48:11. > :48:14.candidate for Westminster. Let's leave the discussion

:48:15. > :48:16.about Stoke. Jeremy Corbyn, how much longer can

:48:17. > :48:20.those on the left of the Labour Party tolerate Jeremy Corbyn

:48:21. > :48:24.when he is clearly a toxic force I don't think he's a toxic

:48:25. > :48:33.force to the electorate. We've got to see how

:48:34. > :48:34.Labour develops in I believe Labour will

:48:35. > :48:38.improve in the polls. Well, Labour was one point ahead

:48:39. > :48:42.of the Conservatives before the attempted removal of Jeremy

:48:43. > :48:46.Corbyn which was defeated and then, of course, Theresa May, an unelected

:48:47. > :48:49.Prime Minister, became Prime Minister and there is

:48:50. > :48:54.and has been a honeymoon period. I think when Labour

:48:55. > :48:57.is speaking to the bread-and-butter concerns of people

:48:58. > :49:05.on education, on jobs, on living conditions, on housing, I believe

:49:06. > :49:07.Labour will improve in the polls and we will see that

:49:08. > :49:10.in the months to come. Do you believe that

:49:11. > :49:19.I mean, for Labour, Labour may improve in the polls,

:49:20. > :49:22.but I think you'll find there's going to be

:49:23. > :49:24.a long time for that improvement to come

:49:25. > :49:26.to fruition. I think we are going to be

:49:27. > :49:28.talking years and years. In the early 2000,

:49:29. > :49:31.we had our troubles as a party. I think Labour are in

:49:32. > :49:33.exactly the same place. It took us years and years

:49:34. > :49:36.to recover and I think it will Just very briefly,

:49:37. > :49:39.Mike Hookum, I mean, what does Ukip need to do now to win

:49:40. > :49:42.another seat in parliament? You seem to have failed

:49:43. > :49:44.spectacularly in most areas. Well, this Stoke seat was 72

:49:45. > :49:48.on our list of seats to take. We will look at what

:49:49. > :49:51.we've done, maybe things that we can improve on,

:49:52. > :49:54.and we will come back fighting. We'll keep on fighting,

:49:55. > :49:57.because we know we're right. And I send out a personal plea

:49:58. > :50:00.to every Labour Party member, please, please, please,

:50:01. > :50:02.keep Jeremy Corbyn because every time he opens his mouth,

:50:03. > :50:05.he puts a smile on my face. Now, hospitals across

:50:06. > :50:10.Yorkshire and Lincolnshire are paying out more than ever

:50:11. > :50:13.on temporary health care staff despite the introduction

:50:14. > :50:15.of a Government cap Research by the BBC

:50:16. > :50:23.has shown that one hospital is spending more than three

:50:24. > :50:26.times than it was five years ago. Mealtime at Harrogate District

:50:27. > :50:31.Hospital, but is this kind of familiarity becoming

:50:32. > :50:35.a thing of the past? The trust which runs the hospital

:50:36. > :50:38.is one of many in the region to see an increase

:50:39. > :50:40.in spending on temporary Harrogate and district NHS Trust saw

:50:41. > :50:44.an increase in spending on agency staff of around

:50:45. > :50:47.42% over five years. But even that was one

:50:48. > :50:50.of the smaller increases. Freedom of information

:50:51. > :50:52.requests submitted by the Sunday Politics show some trusts

:50:53. > :50:56.seeing huge rises in temporary staff Calderdale and Huddersfield

:50:57. > :51:01.NHS Trust has seen its spend on agency medical staff rise

:51:02. > :51:08.by 212% to more than ?19 million. The mid Yorkshire trust,

:51:09. > :51:10.one of the region's biggest, has seen the total rise

:51:11. > :51:15.235% to ?29 million. But it's in Hull in

:51:16. > :51:17.East Yorkshire where we find the biggest

:51:18. > :51:26.increase - 247%. Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals

:51:27. > :51:28.Trust insist the amount it spends on agency health care staff makes up

:51:29. > :51:31.just 2.6% of its annual budget and that its figures last year

:51:32. > :51:34.of ?8.3 million actually compare Some in the industry think that

:51:35. > :51:44.maybe of the agencies themselves By and large, over the last few

:51:45. > :51:48.years, it's skyrocketed because nobody has been watching how

:51:49. > :51:52.much the agencies are charging, shall we say, and there were some

:51:53. > :51:55.that were going in charging phenomenal amounts because they know

:51:56. > :51:59.that there is such a demand But if you're just looking

:52:00. > :52:04.at the cost, it could be increased demand or it

:52:05. > :52:07.could be that people are charging more for

:52:08. > :52:11.the temporary staff. The NHS introduced caps in late

:52:12. > :52:15.2015 not only the amount hospitals could spend on agency

:52:16. > :52:19.health care staff but also on the amount agencies were allowed to

:52:20. > :52:21.charge the NHS for A move that was welcomed by both

:52:22. > :52:26.Janet's agency It brings a level playing field

:52:27. > :52:32.and common rates of pay We have a cap ceiling

:52:33. > :52:37.of ?6.3 million and we hope by the end of this financial year,

:52:38. > :52:41.we'll be a million short of that spend on that cap,

:52:42. > :52:43.which is a good thing. But again, we've got a real focus

:52:44. > :52:47.on recruitment of staff to make sure we're filling up our

:52:48. > :52:49.establishment and also we have a less reliance on temporary

:52:50. > :52:52.and agency staff. But some think the cap is nothing

:52:53. > :52:55.more than a sticking plaster that doesn't address deeper

:52:56. > :52:59.problems within NHS staffing. They don't deal with the underlying

:53:00. > :53:03.issue, which is around the retention The only reason we have

:53:04. > :53:10.agency staff in the first place is because we don't have

:53:11. > :53:14.enough permanent staff. The NHS says agency spending

:53:15. > :53:16.has fallen in three quarters of hospital trusts and that that

:53:17. > :53:20.saved ?600 million, but as our research has shown, in Yorkshire

:53:21. > :53:23.and Lincolnshire at least, Richard Burgon, some eye

:53:24. > :53:30.watering sums there. Do hospitals really

:53:31. > :53:32.have any choice but to hire agency doctors and nurses

:53:33. > :53:36.if they're going to meet demand? Well, first of all,

:53:37. > :53:38.I would say with a heavy heart I believe Theresa May

:53:39. > :53:43.is in denial about that. But in relation to this

:53:44. > :53:46.particular story about agency staff, obviously,

:53:47. > :53:54.agency staff can cost more and we've got to look at the facts that we're

:53:55. > :53:57.not training enough nurses. The Government has

:53:58. > :53:58.recently announced it's scrapping bursaries for nurses

:53:59. > :54:01.and that has led to less people applying to train to be nurses

:54:02. > :54:03.and Labour has called on the Government to reverse that

:54:04. > :54:07.plan because we are going to have to rely more and more

:54:08. > :54:10.upon agency staff if we are not training up nurses and if we're not

:54:11. > :54:14.planning our NHS in the proper way. John Proctor, the Government has

:54:15. > :54:16.introduced supposedly this cap on agency staffing, but it's not

:54:17. > :54:19.working in many areas, is it? The fact is that we

:54:20. > :54:21.have a fluctuating demand within the NHS

:54:22. > :54:23.and other recent years, we have seen the peak time,

:54:24. > :54:27.which is the winter of course, we have seen that peak occur

:54:28. > :54:32.and the agency staff are required Look, I think what we

:54:33. > :54:37.need is a sensible, mature debate about the whole

:54:38. > :54:42.of the NHS and its funding. It's been recently suggested

:54:43. > :54:44.a Royal Commission... Richard Burgon, says

:54:45. > :54:46.the NHS is in crisis. But it's recently been floated that

:54:47. > :54:52.a Royal Commission There needs to be some sort

:54:53. > :54:56.of political consensus, in my view, on the way

:54:57. > :55:00.forward for the NHS. We can't keep lurching around

:55:01. > :55:03.between political parties in terms of who is doing it right,

:55:04. > :55:06.doing is doing is wrong. We'll spend more money

:55:07. > :55:09.than you'll spend and our way The fact is that

:55:10. > :55:13.Labour chose to fight the Copeland by-election

:55:14. > :55:17.on the NHS and they lost. Do you accept we're ever

:55:18. > :55:20.going to have a political Well, we'll have a political

:55:21. > :55:23.consensus on the NHS when we have a Government that

:55:24. > :55:27.will agree to properly fund the NHS, but I do believe

:55:28. > :55:31.the NHS is in crisis. They say a picture

:55:32. > :55:33.tells a thousand words. People have seen the pictures

:55:34. > :55:35.of elderly patients waiting on trolleys in the corridor, people

:55:36. > :55:38.have seen the pictures of the baby waiting on to plastic chairs

:55:39. > :55:43.rather than in a bed. One of my own constituents,

:55:44. > :55:45.Lynne Dexter, in Seacroft, was asked in a hospital

:55:46. > :55:49.in Leeds to sleep in the shower room that had recently been used

:55:50. > :55:52.because there weren't enough beds. The NHS is in crisis

:55:53. > :55:54.and something needs Well, we do keep hearing stories

:55:55. > :55:59.like those all the time. We had patients

:56:00. > :56:01.treated in exactly the same way when Labour

:56:02. > :56:04.were in Government as well. The fact of the matter

:56:05. > :56:07.is that people are living longer in this country and right

:56:08. > :56:11.across the world as well. The NHS was set up

:56:12. > :56:13.in the first place believing and thinking that actually

:56:14. > :56:17.the demands on its resources would go down because people would be

:56:18. > :56:21.healthier and so there The reverse clearly has happened

:56:22. > :56:24.over all these years and that's great news that

:56:25. > :56:26.people are living longer. That said, we need to deal

:56:27. > :56:30.with the issues that are at hand. Where will all this extra money come

:56:31. > :56:33.from that Labour is pledging Well, they say that

:56:34. > :56:37.socialism is the language of priorities and the priority has to

:56:38. > :56:40.be, amongst other things, our NHS. And we need to clamp down on tax

:56:41. > :56:45.avoidance, tax evasion, we would reverse some of the tax

:56:46. > :56:49.cuts for the very richest to impact, tax cuts

:56:50. > :56:54.that have benefited the super-rich

:56:55. > :56:58.at a time of crisis. But just to go back to something

:56:59. > :57:01.John said, it's not the case that the NHS was in that

:57:02. > :57:04.situation when Labour was in office. In 2010 when Labour left Government,

:57:05. > :57:07.satisfaction levels with the NHS This Government have been

:57:08. > :57:13.in power for seven years I will let you very briefly

:57:14. > :57:17.respond to that, John. The fact is that the Conservatives

:57:18. > :57:19.have spent more money on the NHS time and time again,

:57:20. > :57:23.more than Labour have ever done. Now, it's been a week

:57:24. > :57:27.of budget announcements from local authorities across

:57:28. > :57:29.Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. We have 16 councils and the message

:57:30. > :57:33.appears to be the same. Tax bills will rise but services

:57:34. > :57:36.will still be cut as there are millions of pounds

:57:37. > :57:39.that need to be saved. 11 of our authorities are increasing

:57:40. > :57:45.bills by just under 5%. That means that if you live

:57:46. > :57:48.in a band D council tax property, a typical family home, you can expect

:57:49. > :57:51.to see your bill go up Residents in York will face

:57:52. > :57:57.the smallest rise of 3.7%. The increases also include money

:57:58. > :58:00.for adult social care, varying between two and 3%

:58:01. > :58:05.of the total increase. But as the Hull West and Hessle MP

:58:06. > :58:08.Alan Johnson pointed out this week at Westminster, the amount local

:58:09. > :58:11.authorities can raise for social The amount raised doesn't begin

:58:12. > :58:20.to match the scale of the problem. The precept in 2016-17 raised

:58:21. > :58:28.?382 million which is less than 3% of council spending

:58:29. > :58:32.on adult social care, but it would have been a very

:58:33. > :58:35.welcome 3% increase were it not for the fact that implementation

:58:36. > :58:40.of the national living wage cost those same councils

:58:41. > :58:46.an estimated ?612 million. Wiping out the additional

:58:47. > :58:57.money and leaving councils with a deficit on this issue

:58:58. > :58:59.alone of ?220 million. That was former Health

:59:00. > :59:01.Secretary Alan Johnson there. John Proctor, do you accept

:59:02. > :59:04.that this extra 3%, many areas are charging on the council

:59:05. > :59:06.tax bill, is nowhere As I said a few moments

:59:07. > :59:11.ago, people are living longer. People are living

:59:12. > :59:14.in their own homes. It is not a toxic mix, it's

:59:15. > :59:21.the reality of We have been in a financial

:59:22. > :59:27.crisis in this country, thanks to the previous

:59:28. > :59:30.Labour Government, and the Conservative Party have been

:59:31. > :59:32.doing their very best the last seven years to rectify

:59:33. > :59:35.that and get us out of this The health sector, the social care

:59:36. > :59:43.sector, will always need more money. Are we really saying

:59:44. > :59:46.that a blank cheque? Clearly, we are not and we can't say

:59:47. > :59:52.that as a nation, can we? What we've got to do

:59:53. > :59:55.is make sure that we've got a strong economy

:59:56. > :59:59.and that the economy can then find the other services that people

:00:00. > :00:01.require and need All right, so we can't

:00:02. > :00:04.fund better social care Well, we need a strong

:00:05. > :00:09.economy but we also need a Government committed

:00:10. > :00:10.to these important services. It is a fact that the

:00:11. > :00:13.Conservative Government has decided to cut funding to local

:00:14. > :00:21.councils by around 50%. Leeds council has had

:00:22. > :00:23.its budget cut by 50% The Conservatives try to blame

:00:24. > :00:28.the local councils but that is then The Conservatives did

:00:29. > :00:31.try to do a sweetheart deal with the council

:00:32. > :00:32.in Surrey to let them off

:00:33. > :00:35.the hook when it came to this the other week,

:00:36. > :00:38.so if it is good enough for Surrey, it

:00:39. > :00:42.should be good enough for Leeds City Council and councils

:00:43. > :00:44.in our region two. And this appears to be

:00:45. > :00:45.the main problem here, John Proctor, is that leafy,

:00:46. > :00:47.wealthier southern councils can raise far more money

:00:48. > :00:50.through their council tax than the northern councils

:00:51. > :00:52.and we are the poor relation. They can't raise more

:00:53. > :00:55.money in terms of the quantum of money

:00:56. > :00:57.that they are raising. Again, the Surrey example is frankly

:00:58. > :00:59.neither here nor there. that Leeds gets compared with Surrey

:01:00. > :01:05.isn't really the issue. What the issue really

:01:06. > :01:07.is is the support that people... So you don't think there

:01:08. > :01:10.was a backroom deal done there because the Chancellor,

:01:11. > :01:14.the Health Secretary With the greatest respect,

:01:15. > :01:18.sorry just isn't where Where we should be saying is, well,

:01:19. > :01:22.actually, why do people in Manchester per person,

:01:23. > :01:23.why does Manchester get more than those

:01:24. > :01:25.in Leeds? And I and other colleagues in

:01:26. > :01:27.Yorkshire have been saying that We need to make better

:01:28. > :01:32.representation and point to that. All we say in terms of sorry,

:01:33. > :01:35.that isn't really We're just going to have to accept,

:01:36. > :01:50.Richard Burgon, we're all Whether its council tax

:01:51. > :01:53.or central taxation, to pay for the growing

:01:54. > :01:56.adult social care bill. Well, we need to get

:01:57. > :01:58.the economy really We need to clamp down on tax

:01:59. > :02:02.avoidance and tax evasion by the I don't see why the Government

:02:03. > :02:05.has given tax cuts to multimillionaires while at the same

:02:06. > :02:08.time making these cuts which are affecting people, some of the most

:02:09. > :02:11.vulnerable people in our region. Will he do what Richard Burgon

:02:12. > :02:14.is suggesting, perhaps look at tax loopholes in the budget in order

:02:15. > :02:17.to pay for social care? The Government has

:02:18. > :02:20.consistently looked at all tax loopholes and has clamped down

:02:21. > :02:23.consistently right across the piece The notion that you can somehow tax

:02:24. > :02:27.the super-rich and they're going to pay for everything,

:02:28. > :02:29.it is rightly ridiculous. There isn't that sum of money to do

:02:30. > :02:32.that and we're talking vast sums of money

:02:33. > :02:34.here that are required. If you would believe

:02:35. > :02:36.everything that Richard says. As I've said already,

:02:37. > :02:40.what we need to look at, I think, is a royal

:02:41. > :02:48.commission to seriously debate and seriously look across

:02:49. > :02:49.the piece at adult social care and the NHS

:02:50. > :02:51.in the round. But isn't this going back to

:02:52. > :02:54.the Labour politics of envy is back Your predecessors

:02:55. > :02:57.were taxing the rich Labour socialism was rejected

:02:58. > :03:05.when Margaret Thatcher came along. What I'm talking

:03:06. > :03:07.about is an offensive, morally offensive situation, where

:03:08. > :03:09.you have certain multimillionaires paying less tax than the cleaners

:03:10. > :03:12.who clean their offices. But it is not the case that tax

:03:13. > :03:18.justice in and of itself will provide sufficient money

:03:19. > :03:20.for everything we need It's also the case that we need

:03:21. > :03:25.to get our economy moving with investment for long-term

:03:26. > :03:26.growth and infrastructure Well, we will look ahead

:03:27. > :03:30.to the budget next week because the big day is coming,

:03:31. > :03:32.but thank you both for your thoughts today,

:03:33. > :03:35.Richard Burgon and John Proctor. And, as always, we'll hand you back

:03:36. > :03:55.now to Andrew Neil in London. Welcome back. Article 50, which

:03:56. > :03:59.triggers the beginning of Britain leaving the European Union and start

:04:00. > :04:05.negotiations, is winding its way through the Lords in this coming

:04:06. > :04:11.week. Tarzan has made an intervention, let's just see the

:04:12. > :04:15.headline from the Mail on Sunday. Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine,

:04:16. > :04:19.my fightback starts here, he is going to defy Theresa May. I divide

:04:20. > :04:23.one Prime Minister over the poll tax, I'm ready to defy this one in

:04:24. > :04:29.the Lords over Brexit. There we go, that's going to happen this week. We

:04:30. > :04:34.will see how far he gets. I don't think he will get very far, I don't

:04:35. > :04:38.think Loyalist Tory MPs and Brexiteers are quaking in their

:04:39. > :04:42.boots at the prospect of a rebellion led by Michael Heseltine. I sense

:04:43. > :04:46.that many Tory MPs are already moving on to the next question about

:04:47. > :04:51.Brexit, and the discussion over how much it will cost us to come out.

:04:52. > :04:58.The fact they are already debating that suggests to me they feel things

:04:59. > :05:02.will go fairly smoothly in terms of the legislation. When I spoke to the

:05:03. > :05:06.Labour leader in the Lords last week on the daily politics, she said she

:05:07. > :05:14.was going to push hard for the kind of amendments Lord has all-time is

:05:15. > :05:19.talking about and they would bring that back to the Commons. But if the

:05:20. > :05:22.Commons pinged it back to the Lords with the amendments taken out, she

:05:23. > :05:30.made it clear that was the end of it. Is that right? That's about

:05:31. > :05:34.right. This is probably really a large destruction. There will be to

:05:35. > :05:40.micro issues that come up in the Lords, one is on the future of EU

:05:41. > :05:44.nationals, that could be voted on as soon as this Wednesday, and then the

:05:45. > :05:48.main vote in the Lords on a week on Tuesday, when there is this question

:05:49. > :05:53.of what sort of vote will MPs and peers get at the end of the Brexit

:05:54. > :05:56.process and that is what has all-time is talking about. He wants

:05:57. > :06:02.to make sure there are guarantees in place. The kind of things peers are

:06:03. > :06:04.looking for are pretty moderate and the Government have hinted they

:06:05. > :06:10.could deliver on both of them already. But they are still not

:06:11. > :06:16.prepared... Amber Rudd said they were not prepared... They may say

:06:17. > :06:21.yes we are going to do that but they won't allow whatever that is to be

:06:22. > :06:25.enshrined in the legislation. The question is whether we think this is

:06:26. > :06:28.dancing on the head of a pin. The Government have already promised

:06:29. > :06:31.something in the House of Commons, but will they write it down, I don't

:06:32. > :06:35.think that's the biggest problem in the world. In a sense this is a

:06:36. > :06:42.great magicians trick by Theresa May because it is not the most important

:06:43. > :06:45.thing. The most important thing in Brexit is going on in those

:06:46. > :06:48.committees behind closed doors when they are trying to work out what the

:06:49. > :06:52.next migration system is for Britain and there are some interesting,

:06:53. > :06:57.indeed toxic proposals, but at the moment Downing Street are happy to

:06:58. > :07:03.let us talk about the constitutional propriety of what MPs are doing over

:07:04. > :07:07.the next eight days. It seems to me the irony is that if we had a second

:07:08. > :07:12.chamber that can claim some kind of democratic legitimacy, which the one

:07:13. > :07:16.we have cannot, it would be able to cause the Government more trouble on

:07:17. > :07:20.this, it would be more robust. Absolutely. I saw the interview we

:07:21. > :07:29.did with the Labour Leader of the Lords, they are very conscious, of

:07:30. > :07:33.the fact they are not elected and have limited powers. She was clear

:07:34. > :07:37.to you they would not impede the timetable for triggering Article 50

:07:38. > :07:42.so we might get a bit of theatre, Michael Heseltine might deliver a

:07:43. > :07:47.brilliant speech. It is interesting that Euroscepticism gun under

:07:48. > :07:53.Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party but two offer senior ministers Ken

:07:54. > :07:56.Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the most prominent opponents now but

:07:57. > :08:00.they will change nothing at this point. She will have the space to

:08:01. > :08:05.trigger Article 50 within her timetable. Let's move on. Let me

:08:06. > :08:11.show you a picture tweeted by Nigel Farage.

:08:12. > :08:18.That is Nigel Farage and a small group of people having dinner, and

:08:19. > :08:22.within that small group of people is the president of the United States,

:08:23. > :08:28.and it was taken in the last couple of days. This would suggest that if

:08:29. > :08:32.he can command that amount of the President's time in a small group of

:08:33. > :08:38.people, then he's actually rather close to the president. Make no

:08:39. > :08:41.mistake about it, Nigel Farage is now to and fro Washington more

:08:42. > :08:48.regularly than perhaps he is here. Hopefully that LBC programme is

:08:49. > :08:54.recorded over in the state. He's not only close to the president but to a

:08:55. > :08:58.series of people within the administration. That relationship

:08:59. > :09:02.there is a remarkable one and one to keep an eye on. Will the main

:09:03. > :09:08.government be tempted to tap into that relationship at any time or is

:09:09. > :09:15.it just seething with anger? You can feel a ripple of discontentment over

:09:16. > :09:19.this. We are in the middle of negotiating the state visit and the

:09:20. > :09:23.sort of pomp and circumstance and what kind of greeting Britain should

:09:24. > :09:27.give Donald Trump when he comes over later in the year. There is a great

:09:28. > :09:31.deal of neurotic thought going into what that should look like, but one

:09:32. > :09:34.of the most interesting things about our relationship with Donald Trump

:09:35. > :09:38.is that there is a nervousness among some Cabinet ministers that we are

:09:39. > :09:43.being seen to go too far, too fast with the prospect of a trade deal.

:09:44. > :09:47.Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet ministers, they worry we won't get a

:09:48. > :09:50.very good trade deal with the US and we are tolerably placing a lot of

:09:51. > :09:55.stalled by it. When we see the kind of deal they want to pitch with us

:09:56. > :10:03.there might be some pulling back and that could be an awkward moment in

:10:04. > :10:06.terms of our relationship, and no doubt Nigel at that term -- at that

:10:07. > :10:12.point will accuse the UK of doing the dirty on Donald Trump. If there

:10:13. > :10:20.was a deal, would they get it through the House of Commons? Nigel

:10:21. > :10:24.Farage is having dinner with the president, not bad as a kind of

:10:25. > :10:28.lifestyle but he's politically rootless, he won't be an MEP much

:10:29. > :10:32.longer so if you look at where is his political base to build on this

:10:33. > :10:36.great time he's having, there is one. Given that there is one I think

:10:37. > :10:41.he's just having a great time and it isn't much more significant than

:10:42. > :10:52.that. No? There's a lot to be said for having a great time. You are

:10:53. > :10:59.having a great time. Let's just look, because of the dominance of

:11:00. > :11:04.the Government we kind of it nor there are problems piling up, only

:11:05. > :11:09.what, ten days with the Budget to go, piling up for Mrs May and her

:11:10. > :11:14.government. The business rates which has alarmed a lot of Tories, this

:11:15. > :11:19.disability cuts which are really a serious problem for the Government,

:11:20. > :11:23.and the desperate need for more money for social care. There are

:11:24. > :11:27.other issues, there are problems there and they involve spending

:11:28. > :11:31.money. Absolutely and some people argue Theresa May has only one

:11:32. > :11:36.Monday and that is to deliver Brexit but it is impossible as a Prime

:11:37. > :11:42.Minister to ignore everything else. And she doesn't want to either. The

:11:43. > :11:45.bubbling issue of social care and the NHS is the biggest single

:11:46. > :11:49.problem for her in the weeks and months ahead, she has got to come up

:11:50. > :11:54.with something. And Mr Hammond will have to loosen his belt a little

:11:55. > :11:58.bit. I think he will in relation to the NHS, he didn't mention it in the

:11:59. > :12:02.Autumn Statement, which was remarkable, and he cannot get away

:12:03. > :12:06.with not mentioning it this time. If he mentions it, it has to be in a

:12:07. > :12:10.positive context in some way or another and it is one example of

:12:11. > :12:15.many. She is both strong because she is so far ahead in the opinion

:12:16. > :12:19.polls, but this in tray is one of the most daunting a Prime Minister

:12:20. > :12:25.has faced in recent times I think. Here is what will happen on Budget

:12:26. > :12:32.day, money will be more money, magically found down the back of the

:12:33. > :12:36.Treasury sofa. The projections are that he has wiggle room of about 12

:12:37. > :12:40.billion. But look at the bills, rebels involved in business rates

:12:41. > :12:46.suggest the Chancellor will have to throw up ?2 billion at that problem.

:12:47. > :12:49.3.7 billion is the potential cost of this judgment about disability

:12:50. > :12:54.benefits. The Government will try to find different ways of satisfying it

:12:55. > :12:59.but who knows. It will not popular. I'm not sure they will throw money

:13:00. > :13:01.at the NHS, they want an interim settlement on social care which will

:13:02. > :13:08.alleviate pressure on the NHS but they feel... That's another couple

:13:09. > :13:12.of billion by the way. They feel in the Treasury that the NHS has not

:13:13. > :13:19.delivered on what Simon Stevens promised them. But here is the

:13:20. > :13:23.bigger problem for Philip Hammond, he has two This year and he thinks

:13:24. > :13:26.the second one in the autumn is more important because that is when

:13:27. > :13:28.people will feel the cost living squeeze.

:13:29. > :13:32.The Daily Politics is back at noon on BBC Two tomorrow.

:13:33. > :13:34.We'll be back here at the same time next week.

:13:35. > :13:41.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.