:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.Labour attacks Conservative plans for social care and to means-test
:00:44. > :00:46.So can Jeremy Corbyn eat into the Tory lead
:00:47. > :00:51.Theresa May says her party's manifesto is all about fairness.
:00:52. > :00:56.We'll be speaking to a Conservative cabinet minister about the plans.
:00:57. > :00:58.The polls have always shown healthy leads for the Conservatives.
:00:59. > :01:03.But, now we've seen the manifestos, is Labour narrowing the gap?
:01:04. > :01:05.Later on the Sunday Politics: The candidates vying for Grimbsy
:01:06. > :01:09.And I take the wheel on an election car share with a former
:01:10. > :01:23.And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political
:01:24. > :01:25.panel in the business: Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:26. > :01:27.and Steve Richards - they'll be tweeting throughout
:01:28. > :01:29.the programme, and you can get involved by using
:01:30. > :01:38.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says pensioners will be up to ?330 a year
:01:39. > :01:50.worse off under plans outlined in the Conservative manifesto.
:01:51. > :01:56.The Work Pensions Secretary Damian Green has said his party will not
:01:57. > :02:00.rethink their plans to fund social care in England. Under the plans in
:02:01. > :02:06.the Conservative manifesto, nobody with assets of less than ?100,000,
:02:07. > :02:11.would have to pay for care. Labour has attacked the proposal, and John
:02:12. > :02:14.McDonnell, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, said this morning that
:02:15. > :02:18.there needs to be more cross-party consensus.
:02:19. > :02:20.That's why we supported Dilnot, but we also supported
:02:21. > :02:23.Because we've got to have something sustainable over generations,
:02:24. > :02:25.so that's why we've said to the Conservative Party,
:02:26. > :02:28.Let's go back to that cross-party approach that actually
:02:29. > :02:32.I just feel we've all been let down by what's come
:02:33. > :02:43.Sam, is Labour beginning to get their argument across? What we had
:02:44. > :02:47.last week was bluntly what felt like not very Lynton Crosby approved
:02:48. > :02:51.Conservative manifesto. What I mean by that is that it looks like there
:02:52. > :02:55.are things that will cause political difficulties for the party over this
:02:56. > :03:00.campaign. I've been talking to MPs and ministers who acknowledge that
:03:01. > :03:06.the social care plan is coming up on the doorstep. It has cut through
:03:07. > :03:09.very quickly, and it is worrying and deterring some voters. Not just
:03:10. > :03:21.pensioners, that people who are looking to inherit in the future.
:03:22. > :03:23.They are all asking how much they could lose that they wouldn't have
:03:24. > :03:26.lost before. A difficult question for the party to answer, given that
:03:27. > :03:31.they don't want to give too much away now. Was this a mistake, or a
:03:32. > :03:38.sign of the Conservatives' confidence? It has the hallmarks of
:03:39. > :03:42.something that has been cobbled together in a very unnaturally short
:03:43. > :03:47.time frame for putting a manifesto together. We have had mixed messages
:03:48. > :03:51.from the Tory MPs who have been out on the airwaves this morning as to
:03:52. > :03:56.whether they will consult on it whether it is just a starting point.
:03:57. > :04:02.That said, there is still three weeks to go, and most of the Tory
:04:03. > :04:06.party this morning feel this is a little light turbulence rather than
:04:07. > :04:10.anything that leaves the destination of victory in doubt. It it flips the
:04:11. > :04:14.normal politics. The Tories are going to make people who have a
:04:15. > :04:21.reasonable amount of assets pay for their social care. What is wrong
:04:22. > :04:24.with that? First, total credit for them for not pretending that all
:04:25. > :04:28.this can be done by magic, which is what normally happens in an
:04:29. > :04:33.election. The party will say, we will review this for the 95th time
:04:34. > :04:38.in the following Parliament, so they have no mandate to do anything and
:04:39. > :04:41.so do not do anything. It is courageous to do it. It is
:04:42. > :04:47.electorally risky, for the reasons that you suggest, that they pass the
:04:48. > :04:54.target their own natural supporter. And there is a sense that this is
:04:55. > :04:59.rushed through, in the frenzy to get it done in time. I think the ending
:05:00. > :05:04.of the pooling of risk and putting the entire burden on in inverted
:05:05. > :05:13.commas the victim, because you cannot insure Fritz, is against the
:05:14. > :05:16.spirit of a lot of the rest of the manifesto, and will give them huge
:05:17. > :05:25.problems if they try to implement it in the next Parliament. Let's have a
:05:26. > :05:29.look at the polls. Nearly five weeks ago, on Tuesday the 18th of April,
:05:30. > :05:35.Theresa May called the election. At that point, this was the median
:05:36. > :05:40.average of the recent polls. The Conservatives had an 18 point lead
:05:41. > :05:49.over Labour on 25%. Ukip and the Liberal Democrats were both on 18%.
:05:50. > :05:54.A draft of Labour's manifesto was leaked to the press. In the
:05:55. > :05:57.intervening weeks, support for the Conservatives and Labour had
:05:58. > :06:02.increased, that it had decreased for the Lib Dems and Ukip. Last Tuesday
:06:03. > :06:08.came the launch of the official Labour manifesto. By that time,
:06:09. > :06:14.Labour support had gone up by another 2%. The Lib Dems and Ukip
:06:15. > :06:18.had slipped back slightly. Later in the week came the manifestos from
:06:19. > :06:23.the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. This morning, for more polls. This
:06:24. > :06:30.is how the parties currently stand on average. Labour are now on 34%,
:06:31. > :06:35.up 4% since the launch of their manifesto. The Conservatives are
:06:36. > :06:41.down two points since last Tuesday. Ukip and the Lib Dems are both
:06:42. > :06:47.unchanged on 8% and 5%. You can find this poll tracker on the BBC
:06:48. > :06:52.website, see how it was calculated, and see the results of national
:06:53. > :06:55.polls over the last two years. So Isabel, is this the Tories' wobbly
:06:56. > :07:00.weekend or the start of the narrowing? This is still an
:07:01. > :07:06.extremely healthy lead for the Tories. At the start of this
:07:07. > :07:12.campaign, most commentators expected to things to happen. First, the Lib
:07:13. > :07:18.Dems would have a significant surge. That hasn't happened. Second, Labour
:07:19. > :07:22.would crash and plummet. Instead they are in the health of the low
:07:23. > :07:29.30s. I wonder if that tells you something about the tribal nature of
:07:30. > :07:33.the Labour vote, and the continuing problems with the Tory brand. I
:07:34. > :07:39.would say that a lot of Tory MPs wouldn't be too unhappy if Labour's
:07:40. > :07:45.result isn't quite as bad as has been anticipated. They don't want
:07:46. > :07:52.Corbyn to go anywhere. If the latest polls were to be the result on June
:07:53. > :07:57.the 8th, Mr Corbyn may not be in a rush to go anywhere. I still think
:07:58. > :08:02.it depends on the number of seats. If there is a landslide win, I
:08:03. > :08:07.think, one way or another, he will not stay. If it is much narrower, he
:08:08. > :08:13.has grounds for arguing he has done better than anticipated. The polls
:08:14. > :08:18.are very interesting. People compare this with 83. In 83, the Tory lead
:08:19. > :08:30.widened consistently throughout the campaign. There was the SDP -
:08:31. > :08:33.Liberal Alliance doing well in the polls. Here, the Lib Dems don't seem
:08:34. > :08:36.to be doing that. So the parallels with 83 don't really stack up. But
:08:37. > :08:39.let's see what happens. Still early days for the a lot of people are
:08:40. > :08:44.saying this is the result of the social care policy. We don't really
:08:45. > :08:47.know that. How do you beat them? In the last week or so, there's been
:08:48. > :08:53.the decision by some to hold their nose and vote Labour, who haven't
:08:54. > :08:57.done so before. Probably the biggest thing in this election is how the
:08:58. > :09:04.Right has reunited behind Theresa May. That figure for Ukip is
:09:05. > :09:09.incredibly small. She has brought those Ukip voters behind her, and
:09:10. > :09:14.that could be the decisive factor in many seats, rather than the Labour
:09:15. > :09:18.share of the boat picking up a bit or down a bit, depending on how
:09:19. > :09:22.turbulent the Tory manifesto makes it. Thank you for that.
:09:23. > :09:25.We've finally got our hands on the manifestos of the two main
:09:26. > :09:27.parties and, for once, voters can hardly complain that
:09:28. > :09:31.So, just how big is the choice on offer to the public?
:09:32. > :09:33.Since the Liberal Democrats and SNP have ruled out
:09:34. > :09:35.coalitions after June 8th, Adam Fleming compares the Labour
:09:36. > :09:38.Welcome to the BBC's election centre.
:09:39. > :09:41.Four minutes from now, when Big Ben strikes 10.00,
:09:42. > :09:46.we can legally reveal the contents of this, our exit poll.
:09:47. > :09:48.18 days to go, and the BBC's election night studio
:09:49. > :09:58.This is where David Dimbleby will sit, although there is no chair yet.
:09:59. > :10:01.The parties' policies are now the finished product.
:10:02. > :10:04.In Bradford, Jeremy Corbyn vowed a bigger state,
:10:05. > :10:07.the end of austerity, no more tuition fees.
:10:08. > :10:15.The Tory campaign, by contrast, is built on one word - fear.
:10:16. > :10:23.Down the road in Halifax, Theresa May kept a promise to get
:10:24. > :10:25.immigration down to the tens of thousands, and talked
:10:26. > :10:29.of leadership and tough choices in uncertain times.
:10:30. > :10:35.Strengthen my hand as I fight for Britain, and stand with me
:10:36. > :10:41.And, with confidence in ourselves and a unity
:10:42. > :10:48.of purpose in our country, let us go forward together.
:10:49. > :10:52.Let's look at the Labour and Conservative
:10:53. > :10:58.On tax, Labour would introduce a 50p rate for top earners.
:10:59. > :11:22.The Conservatives ditched their triple lock, giving them
:11:23. > :11:24.freedom to put up income tax and national insurance,
:11:25. > :11:26.although they want to keep the overall tax burden the same.
:11:27. > :11:28.Labour offered a major overhaul of the country's wiring,
:11:29. > :11:30.with a pledge to renationalise infrastructure, like power,
:11:31. > :11:33.The Conservatives said that would cost a fortune,
:11:34. > :11:36.but provided few details for the cost of their policies.
:11:37. > :11:38.Labour have simply become a shambles, and, as yesterday's
:11:39. > :11:40.manifesto showed, their numbers simply do not add up.
:11:41. > :11:42.What have they got planned for health and social care?
:11:43. > :11:46.The Conservatives offered more cash for the NHS,
:11:47. > :11:49.reaching an extra ?8 billion a year by the end of the parliament.
:11:50. > :11:54.Labour promised an extra ?30 billion over the course of the same period,
:11:55. > :12:00.plus free hospital parking and more pay for staff.
:12:01. > :12:07.The Conservatives would increase the value of assets you could
:12:08. > :12:10.protect from the cost of social care to ?100,000, but your home would be
:12:11. > :12:12.added to the assessment of your wealth,
:12:13. > :12:16.There was a focus on one group of voters in particular
:12:17. > :12:21.Labour would keep the triple lock, which guarantees that pensions go up
:12:22. > :12:27.The Tories would keep the increase in line
:12:28. > :12:30.with inflation or earnings, a double lock.
:12:31. > :12:33.The Conservatives would end of winter fuel payments
:12:34. > :12:36.for the richest, although we don't know exactly who that would be,
:12:37. > :12:45.This is a savage attack on vulnerable pensioners,
:12:46. > :12:49.particularly those who are just about managing.
:12:50. > :12:53.It is disgraceful, and we are calling upon the Conservative Party
:12:54. > :12:59.When it comes to leaving the European Union, Labour say
:13:00. > :13:02.they'd sweep away the government's negotiating strategy,
:13:03. > :13:05.secure a better deal and straightaway guaranteed the rights
:13:06. > :13:11.The Tories say a big majority would remove political uncertainty
:13:12. > :13:23.Jeremy Vine's due here in two and a half weeks.
:13:24. > :13:29.I'm joined now by David Gauke, who is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
:13:30. > :13:36.Welcome back to the programme. The Tories once promised a cap on social
:13:37. > :13:44.care costs. Why have you abandoned that? We've looked at it, and there
:13:45. > :13:49.are couple of proposals with the Dilnot proposal. Much of the benefit
:13:50. > :13:53.would go to those inheriting larger estates. The second point was it was
:13:54. > :13:58.hoped that a cap would stimulate the larger insurance products that would
:13:59. > :14:04.fill the gap, but there is no sign that those products are emerging.
:14:05. > :14:09.Without a cap, you will not get one. We have come forward with a new
:14:10. > :14:13.proposal which we think is fairer, provide more money for social care,
:14:14. > :14:18.which is very important and is one of the big issues we face as a
:14:19. > :14:23.country. It is right that we face those big issues. Social care is
:14:24. > :14:31.one, getting a good Brexit deal is another. This demonstrates that
:14:32. > :14:33.Theresa May has an ambition to lead a government that addresses those
:14:34. > :14:39.big long-term issues. Looking at social care. If you have assets,
:14:40. > :14:43.including your home, of over ?100,000, you have to pay for all
:14:44. > :14:47.your social care costs. Is that fair? It is right that for the
:14:48. > :14:53.services that are provided to you, that that is paid out of your
:14:54. > :14:57.assets, subject to two really important qualifications. First, you
:14:58. > :15:04.shouldn't have your entire estate wiped out. At the moment, if you are
:15:05. > :15:10.in residential care, it can be wiped out ?223,000. If you are in
:15:11. > :15:16.domiciliary care, it can be out to ?23,000, plus you're domiciliary.
:15:17. > :15:21.Nobody should be forced to sell their house in their lifetime if
:15:22. > :15:23.they or their spouse needs long-term care. Again, we have protected that
:15:24. > :15:33.in the proposals we set out. But the state will basically take a
:15:34. > :15:38.chunk of your house when you die and they sell. In an essence it is a
:15:39. > :15:41.stealth inheritance tax on everything above ?100,000. But we
:15:42. > :15:45.have those two important protections. I am including that. It
:15:46. > :15:50.is a stealth inheritance tax. We have to face up to the fact that
:15:51. > :15:54.there are significant costs that we face as a country in terms of health
:15:55. > :15:59.and social careful. Traditionally, politicians don't address those
:16:00. > :16:04.issues, particularly during election campaigns. I think it is too Theresa
:16:05. > :16:08.May's credit that we are being straightforward with the British
:16:09. > :16:10.people and saying that we face this long-term challenge. Our manifesto
:16:11. > :16:15.was about the big challenges that we face, one of which was
:16:16. > :16:19.intergenerational fairness and one of which was delivering a strong
:16:20. > :16:25.economy and making sure that we can do that. But in the end, someone is
:16:26. > :16:29.going to have to pay for this. It is going to have to be a balance
:16:30. > :16:32.between the general taxpayer and those receiving the services. We
:16:33. > :16:35.think we have struck the right balance with this proposal. But it
:16:36. > :16:40.is entirely on the individual. People watching this programme, if
:16:41. > :16:46.they have a fair amount of assets, not massive, including the home,
:16:47. > :16:51.they will need to pay for everything themselves until their assets are
:16:52. > :16:56.reduced to ?100,000. It is not a balance, you're putting everything
:16:57. > :17:02.on the original two individual. At the moment, for those in residential
:17:03. > :17:06.care, they have to pay everything until 20 3000. -- everything on the
:17:07. > :17:10.individual. But now they will face more. Those in individual care are
:17:11. > :17:13.seeing their protection going up by four times as much, so that is
:17:14. > :17:18.eliminating unfairness. Why should those in residential care be in a
:17:19. > :17:23.worse position than those receiving domiciliary care? But as I say, that
:17:24. > :17:26.money has to come from somewhere and we are sitting at a proper plan for
:17:27. > :17:30.it. While also made the point that we are more likely to be able to
:17:31. > :17:34.have a properly functioning social care market if we have a strong
:17:35. > :17:38.economy, and to have a strong economy we need to deliver a good
:17:39. > :17:42.deal on Brexit and I think Theresa May is capable of doing that. You
:17:43. > :17:47.have said that before. But if you have a heart attack in old age, the
:17:48. > :17:51.NHS will take care of you. If you have dementia, you now have to pay
:17:52. > :17:55.for the care of yourself. Is that they are? It is already the case
:17:56. > :17:59.that if you have long-term care costs come up as I say, if you are
:18:00. > :18:04.in residential care you pay for all of it until the last ?23,000, but if
:18:05. > :18:09.you are in domiciliary care, excluding your housing assets, but
:18:10. > :18:14.all of your other assets get used up until you are down to ?23,000 a
:18:15. > :18:22.year. And I think it is right at this point that a party that aspires
:18:23. > :18:25.to run this country for the long-term, to address the long-term
:18:26. > :18:29.challenges we have is a country, for us to be clear that we need to
:18:30. > :18:36.deliver this. Because if it is not paid for it this way, if it goes and
:18:37. > :18:40.falls on the general taxpayer, the people who feel hard pressed by the
:18:41. > :18:44.amount of income tax and VAT they pay, frankly we have to say to them,
:18:45. > :18:48.those taxes will go up if we do not address it. But they might go up
:18:49. > :18:54.anyway. The average house price in your part of the country is just shy
:18:55. > :18:58.of ?430,000, so if you told your own constituents that they might have to
:18:59. > :19:04.spend ?300,000 of their assets on social care before the state steps
:19:05. > :19:08.in to help...? As I said earlier, nobody will be forced to pay during
:19:09. > :19:14.their lifetime. Nobody will be forced to sell their houses. We are
:19:15. > :19:19.providing that protection because of the third premium. Which makes it a
:19:20. > :19:24.kind of death tax, doesn't it? Which is what you use to rail against.
:19:25. > :19:29.What it is people paying for the services they have paid out of their
:19:30. > :19:32.assets. But with that very important protection that nobody is going to
:19:33. > :19:38.be wiped out in the way that has happened up until now, down to the
:19:39. > :19:42.last three years. But when Labour propose this, George Osborne called
:19:43. > :19:46.it a death tax and you are now proposing a stealth death tax
:19:47. > :19:52.inheritance tax. Labour's proposals were very different. It is the same
:19:53. > :19:59.effect. Labour's were hitting everyone with an inheritance tax. We
:20:00. > :20:01.are saying that there are -- that there is a state contribution but
:20:02. > :20:08.the public receiving the services will have to pay for it out of
:20:09. > :20:11.assets, which have grown substantially. And which they might
:20:12. > :20:15.now lose to social care. But I would say that people in Hertfordshire pay
:20:16. > :20:21.a lot in income tracks, national insurance and VAT, and this is my
:20:22. > :20:25.bet is going to have to come from somewhere. Well, they are now going
:20:26. > :20:29.to pay a lot of tax and pay for social care. Turning to immigration,
:20:30. > :20:34.you promised to get net migration down to 100,020 ten. You failed. You
:20:35. > :20:39.promised again in 2015 and you are feeling again. Why should voters
:20:40. > :20:43.trust you a third time? It is very clear that only the Conservative
:20:44. > :20:48.Party has an ambition to control immigration and to bring it down. An
:20:49. > :20:52.ambition you have failed to deliver. There are, of course, factors that
:20:53. > :20:56.come into play. For example a couple of years ago we were going through a
:20:57. > :20:59.period when the UK was creating huge numbers of jobs but none of our
:21:00. > :21:02.European neighbours were doing anything like it. Not surprisingly,
:21:03. > :21:10.that feeds through into the immigration numbers that we see. But
:21:11. > :21:15.it is right that we have that ambition because I do not believe it
:21:16. > :21:19.is sustainable to have hundreds of thousands net migration, you're
:21:20. > :21:22.after year after year, and only Theresa May of the Conservative
:21:23. > :21:27.Party is willing to address that. It has gone from being a target to an
:21:28. > :21:31.ambition, and I am pretty sure in a couple of years it will become an
:21:32. > :21:36.untimed aspiration. Is net migration now higher or lower than when you
:21:37. > :21:41.came to power in 2010? I think it is higher at the moment. Let's look at
:21:42. > :21:46.the figures. And there they are. You are right, it is higher, so after
:21:47. > :21:54.six years in power, promising to get it down to 100,000, it is higher. So
:21:55. > :21:57.if that is an ambition and you have not succeeded. We have to accept
:21:58. > :22:02.that there are a number of factors. It continues to be the case that the
:22:03. > :22:06.UK economy is growing and creating a lot of jobs, which is undoubtedly
:22:07. > :22:10.drawing people. But you made the promise on the basis that would not
:22:11. > :22:12.happen? We are certainly outperforming other countries in a
:22:13. > :22:18.way that we could not have predicted in 2010. That is one of the factors.
:22:19. > :22:20.But if you look at a lot of the steps that we have taken over the
:22:21. > :22:27.course of the last seven years, dealing with bogus students, for
:22:28. > :22:30.example, tightening up a lot of the rules. You can say all that but it
:22:31. > :22:33.has made no difference to the headline figure. Clearly it would
:22:34. > :22:39.have gone up by much more and we not taken the steps. But as I say, we
:22:40. > :22:44.cannot for ever, it seems to me, have net migration numbers in the
:22:45. > :22:48.hundreds of thousands. If we get that good Brexit deal, one of the
:22:49. > :22:54.things we can do is tighten up in terms of access here. You say that
:22:55. > :22:58.but you have always had control of non-EU migration. You cannot blame
:22:59. > :23:01.the EU for that. You control immigration from outside the EU.
:23:02. > :23:08.Have you ever managed to get even that below 100,000? Well, no doubt
:23:09. > :23:13.you will present the numbers now. You haven't. You have got down a bit
:23:14. > :23:18.from 2010, I will give you that, but even non-EU migration is still a lot
:23:19. > :23:22.more than 100000 and that is the thing you control. It is 164,000 on
:23:23. > :23:26.the latest figures. There is no point in saying to the voters that
:23:27. > :23:29.when we get control of the EU migration you will get it down when
:23:30. > :23:35.the bit you have control over, you have failed to get that down into
:23:36. > :23:39.the tens of thousands. The general trend has gone up. Non-EU migration
:23:40. > :23:44.we have brought down over the last few years. Not by much, not by
:23:45. > :23:50.anywhere near your 100,000 target. But we clearly have more tools
:23:51. > :23:54.available to us, following Brexit. At this rate it will be around 2030
:23:55. > :23:58.before you get non-EU migration down to 100,000. We clearly have more
:23:59. > :24:02.tools available to us and I return to the point I made. In the last six
:24:03. > :24:06.or seven years, particularly the last four or five, we have seen the
:24:07. > :24:10.UK jobs market growing substantially. It is extraordinary
:24:11. > :24:13.how many more jobs we have. So you'll only promised the migration
:24:14. > :24:17.target because you did not think you were going to run the economy well?
:24:18. > :24:20.That is what you are telling me. I don't think anyone expected us to
:24:21. > :24:25.create quite a number of jobs that we have done over the last six or
:24:26. > :24:28.seven years. At the time when other European countries have not been.
:24:29. > :24:34.George Osborne says your target is economically illiterate. I disagree
:24:35. > :24:41.with George on that. He is my old boss but I disagree with him on that
:24:42. > :24:44.point. And the reason I say that is looking at the economics and the
:24:45. > :24:49.wider social impact, I don't think it is sustainable for us to have
:24:50. > :24:53.hundreds of thousands, year after year after year. Let me ask you one
:24:54. > :24:57.other thing because you are the chief secretary. Your promising that
:24:58. > :25:01.spending on health will be ?8 billion higher in five use time than
:25:02. > :25:04.it is now. How do you pay for that? From a strong economy, two years ago
:25:05. > :25:10.we had a similar conversation because at that point we said that
:25:11. > :25:15.we would increase spending by ?8 billion. And we are more than on
:25:16. > :25:19.track to deliver it, because it is a priority area for us. Where will the
:25:20. > :25:23.money come from? It will be a priority area for us. We will find
:25:24. > :25:29.the money. So you have not been able to show us a revenue line where this
:25:30. > :25:33.?8 billion will come from. We have a record of making promises to spend
:25:34. > :25:37.more on the NHS and delivering. One thing I would say is that the only
:25:38. > :25:43.way you can spend more money on the NHS is if you have a strong economy,
:25:44. > :25:46.and the biggest risk... But that is true of anything. I am trying to
:25:47. > :25:50.find out where the ?8 billion come from, where will it come from? Know
:25:51. > :25:54.you were saying that perhaps you might increase taxes, ticking off
:25:55. > :26:01.the lock, so people are right to be suspicious. But you will not tell us
:26:02. > :26:05.where the ?8 billion will come from. Andrew, a strong economy is key to
:26:06. > :26:09.delivering more NHS money. That does not tell us where the money is
:26:10. > :26:13.coming from. The biggest risk to a strong economy would be a bad
:26:14. > :26:17.Brexit, which Jeremy Corbyn would deliver. And we have a record of
:26:18. > :26:20.putting more money into the NHS. I think that past performance we can
:26:21. > :26:23.take forward. Thank you for joining us.
:26:24. > :26:25.So, the Conservatives have been taking a bit of flak
:26:26. > :26:29.But Conservative big guns have been out and about this morning taking
:26:30. > :26:33.Here's Boris Johnson on ITV's Peston programme earlier today:
:26:34. > :26:37.What we're trying to do is to address what I think
:26:38. > :26:40.everybody, all serious demographers acknowledge will be the massive
:26:41. > :26:44.problem of the cost of social care long-term.
:26:45. > :26:47.This is a responsible, grown-up, conservative approach,
:26:48. > :26:50.trying to deal with a long-term problem in a way that is equitable,
:26:51. > :26:52.allows people to pass on a very substantial sum,
:26:53. > :26:55.still, to their kids, and takes away the fear
:26:56. > :27:01.Joining me now from Liverpool is Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary
:27:02. > :27:13.Petered out, welcome to the programme. Let's start with social
:27:14. > :27:16.care. The Tories are saying that if you have ?100,000 or more in assets,
:27:17. > :27:22.you should pay for your own social care. What is wrong with that? Well,
:27:23. > :27:27.I think the issue at the end of the day is the question of fairness. Is
:27:28. > :27:31.it fair? And what we're trying to do is to get to a situation where we
:27:32. > :27:37.have, for example, the Dilnot report, which identified that you
:27:38. > :27:40.actually have cap on your spending on social care. We are trying to get
:27:41. > :27:46.to a position where it is a reasonable and fair approach to
:27:47. > :27:50.expenditure. But you will know that a lot of people, particularly in the
:27:51. > :27:55.south of country, London and the south-east, and the adjacent areas
:27:56. > :27:58.around it, they have benefited from huge house price inflation. They
:27:59. > :28:03.have seen their homes go up in value, if and when they sell, they
:28:04. > :28:09.are not taxed on that increase. Why should these people not pay for
:28:10. > :28:13.their own social care if they have the assets to do so? They will be
:28:14. > :28:17.paying for some of their social care but you cannot take social care and
:28:18. > :28:20.health care separately. It has to be an integrated approach. So for
:28:21. > :28:24.example if you do have dementia, you're more likely to be in an
:28:25. > :28:28.elderly person's home for longer and you most probably have been in care
:28:29. > :28:33.for a longer period of time. On the other hand, you might have, if you
:28:34. > :28:36.have had a stroke, there may be continuing care needs paid for by
:28:37. > :28:39.the NHS. So at the end of the date it is trying to get a reasonable
:28:40. > :28:48.balance and just to pluck a figure of ?100,000 out of thin air is not
:28:49. > :28:54.sensible. You will have heard me say about David Gold that the house
:28:55. > :28:57.prices in his area, about 450,000 or so, not quite that, and that people
:28:58. > :29:03.may have to spend quite a lot of that on social care to get down to
:29:04. > :29:07.?100,000. But in your area, the average house price is only
:29:08. > :29:13.?149,000, so your people would not have to pay anything like as much
:29:14. > :29:18.before they hit the ?100,000 minimum. I hesitate to say that but
:29:19. > :29:22.is that not almost a socialist approach to social care that if you
:29:23. > :29:27.are in the affluent Home Counties with a big asset, you pay more, and
:29:28. > :29:30.if you are in an area that is not so affluent and your house is not worth
:29:31. > :29:35.very much, you pay a lot less. What is wrong with that principle? I
:29:36. > :29:39.think the problem I am trying to get to is this issue about equity across
:29:40. > :29:45.the piece. At the end of the day, what we want is a system whereby it
:29:46. > :29:49.is capped at a particular level, and the Dilnot report, after much
:29:50. > :29:53.examination, said we should have a cap on care costs at ?72,000. The
:29:54. > :29:56.Conservatives decided to ditch that and come up with another policy
:29:57. > :30:01.which by all accounts seems to be even more Draconian. At the end of
:30:02. > :30:10.the day it is trying to get social care and an NHS care in a much more
:30:11. > :30:13.fluid way. We had offered the Conservatives to have a bipartisan
:30:14. > :30:18.approach to this. David just said that this is a long term. You do not
:30:19. > :30:23.pick a figure out of thin air and use that as a long-term strategy.
:30:24. > :30:29.The Conservatives are now saying they will increase health spending
:30:30. > :30:34.over the next five years in real terms. You will increase health
:30:35. > :30:39.spending. In what way is your approach to health spending better
:30:40. > :30:46.than the Tories' now? We are contributing an extra 7.2 billion to
:30:47. > :30:50.the NHS and social care over the next few years. But you just don't
:30:51. > :30:55.put money into the NHS or social care. It has to be an integrated
:30:56. > :31:00.approach to social and health care. What we've got is just more of the
:31:01. > :31:05.same. What we don't want to do is just say, we ring-fenced an out for
:31:06. > :31:13.here or there. What you have to do is try to get that... Let me ask you
:31:14. > :31:18.again. In terms of the amount of resource that is going to be devoted
:31:19. > :31:24.in the next five years, and resource does matter for the NHS, in what way
:31:25. > :31:28.are your plans different now from the Conservative plans? The key is
:31:29. > :31:33.how you use that resource. By just putting money in, you've got to say,
:31:34. > :31:40.if we are going to put that money on, how do we use it? As somebody
:31:41. > :31:43.who has worked in social care for 40 years, you have to have a different
:31:44. > :31:49.approach to how you use that money. The money we are putting in, 7.7,
:31:50. > :31:53.may be similar in cash terms to what the Tories claim they are putting
:31:54. > :32:07.in, but it's not how much you put in per se, it is how you use it. You
:32:08. > :32:10.are going to get rid of car parking charges in hospital, and you are
:32:11. > :32:13.going to increase pay by taking the cap on pay off. So it doesn't
:32:14. > :32:15.necessarily follow that the money, under your way of doing it, will
:32:16. > :32:19.follow the front line. What you need in the NHS is a system that is
:32:20. > :32:27.capable of dealing with the patience you have. What we have now is on at
:32:28. > :32:36.five Asian of the NHS. Staff leaving, not being paid properly. So
:32:37. > :32:40.pay and the NHS go hand in hand. Let's move onto another area of
:32:41. > :32:45.policy where there is some confusion. Who speaks for the Labour
:32:46. > :32:52.Party on nuclear weapons? Is it Emily Thornbury, or Nia Griffith,
:32:53. > :32:57.defence spokesperson? The Labour manifesto. It is clear. We are
:32:58. > :33:08.committed to the nuclear deterrent, and that is the definitive... Is it?
:33:09. > :33:11.Emily Thornbury said that Trident could be scrapped in the defence
:33:12. > :33:17.review you would have immediately after taking power. On LBC on Friday
:33:18. > :33:22.night. She didn't, actually. I listened to that. What she actually
:33:23. > :33:27.said is, as part of a Labour government coming in, a new
:33:28. > :33:32.government, there is always a defence review. But not the concept
:33:33. > :33:39.of Trident in its substance. She said there would be a review in
:33:40. > :33:42.terms of, and this is in our manifesto. When you reduce
:33:43. > :33:49.something, you review how it is operated. The review could scrap
:33:50. > :33:53.Trident. It won't scrap Trident. The review is in the context of how you
:33:54. > :33:59.protect it from cyber attacks. This will issue was seized upon that she
:34:00. > :34:04.was saying that we would have another review of Trident or Labour
:34:05. > :34:11.would ditch it. That is nonsense. You will have seen some reports that
:34:12. > :34:15.MI5 opened a file on Jeremy Corbyn in the early 90s because of his
:34:16. > :34:24.links to Irish republicanism. This has caused some people, his links to
:34:25. > :34:30.the IRA and Sinn Fein, it has caused some concern. Could you just listen
:34:31. > :34:38.to this clip and react. Do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn
:34:39. > :34:42.all bombing. But do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn what was done
:34:43. > :34:47.with the British Army as well as both sides as well. What happened in
:34:48. > :34:53.Derry in 1972 was pretty devastating as well. Do you distinguish between
:34:54. > :34:59.state forces, what the British Army did and the IRA? Well, in a sense,
:35:00. > :35:05.the treatment of IRA prisoners which made them into virtual political
:35:06. > :35:09.prisoners suggested that the British government and the state saw some
:35:10. > :35:16.kind of almost equivalent in it. My point is that the whole violence if
:35:17. > :35:23.you was terrible, was appalling, and came out of a process that had been
:35:24. > :35:28.allowed to fester in Northern Ireland for a very long time. That
:35:29. > :35:32.was from about two years ago. Can you explain why the Leader of the
:35:33. > :35:36.Labour Party, Her Majesty 's opposition, the man who would be our
:35:37. > :35:43.next Prime Minister, finds it so hard to condemn IRA arming? I think
:35:44. > :35:46.it has to be within the context that Jeremy Corbyn for many years trying
:35:47. > :35:56.to move the peace protest... Process along. So why wouldn't you condemn
:35:57. > :36:03.IRA bombing? Again, that was an issue, a traumatic event in Irish -
:36:04. > :36:09.British relations that went on for 30 years. It is a complicated
:36:10. > :36:14.matter. Bombing is not that complicated. If you are a man of
:36:15. > :36:18.peace, surely you would condemn the bomb and the bullet? Let me say
:36:19. > :36:24.this, I condemn the bomb and the bullet. Why can't your leader? You
:36:25. > :36:29.would have to ask Jeremy Corbyn, but that is in the context of what he
:36:30. > :36:30.was trying to do over a 25 year period to move the priest process
:36:31. > :36:34.along. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,
:36:35. > :36:36.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:37. > :36:45.in Scotland and Wales. Hello, you're watching
:36:46. > :36:47.the Sunday Politics what could the changing
:36:48. > :36:54.face of Grimsby tell us And I set off on an
:36:55. > :37:01.Election Car Share with a former But why isn't Baroness Warsi
:37:02. > :37:06.voting for the Tories? Who will you be voting
:37:07. > :37:07.for on June 8th? If you were in any doubt
:37:08. > :37:16.about why our part of the world is at the centre of
:37:17. > :37:18.the general election battle, then you only had to look at this
:37:19. > :37:21.week's manifesto launches. Jeremy Corbyn unveiled Labour's
:37:22. > :37:23.proposals in Bradford on Tuesday, and two days later Theresa May
:37:24. > :37:27.appeared in Halifax to reveal a clear sign that voters along
:37:28. > :37:33.the M62 corridor could once again But there are many other areas
:37:34. > :37:39.where the fight for votes is stepping up a gear,
:37:40. > :37:42.including Grimsby. It's been a Labour seat since 1945,
:37:43. > :37:45.but the bookies now have Labour down as odds-on to lose
:37:46. > :37:49.Great Grimsby on June the 8th. In a moment,
:37:50. > :37:51.we'll meet the candidates, but first Kate Sweeting has this
:37:52. > :37:54.assessment of the economic factors which could influence
:37:55. > :38:02.voting in the town. In the warm spring sunshine,
:38:03. > :38:05.Grimsby is bustling, but do those out enjoying
:38:06. > :38:10.the weather today feel the town's I would say there's no
:38:11. > :38:16.jobs around the people, because I've got family that's
:38:17. > :38:18.trying to look for jobs, I think it's getting better
:38:19. > :38:22.and better these days. It's struggling for opportunities,
:38:23. > :38:27.and investment and things like that sort of, where it's going to end up
:38:28. > :38:34.in the future. Millions of pounds has been spent
:38:35. > :38:37.on improving Grimsby's image to try and encourage more investors to come
:38:38. > :38:41.here, but it's clear not everyone that lives in the town
:38:42. > :38:46.thinks it is on the up. Grimsby was once the world's
:38:47. > :38:48.largest fishing port, but the decline of the industry has
:38:49. > :38:55.led to the rise of new ones, like those supporting
:38:56. > :38:56.offshore renewable energy, But some, like ex-trawlerman
:38:57. > :39:00.Philip Playford, How do you feel about
:39:01. > :39:07.the future of Grimsby? Years ago, you could go from one job
:39:08. > :39:18.to another in the same day. So you don't think
:39:19. > :39:21.things are any better? Others say, though, the so-called
:39:22. > :39:27.good old days were overrated. And in some respects
:39:28. > :39:32.it's a good thing it has gone. You think it's better for people,
:39:33. > :39:35.young people in particular? Oh, yes, yeah,
:39:36. > :39:37.because it was a real terrible life. They used to get sores
:39:38. > :39:41.from the saltwater, and they used to be
:39:42. > :39:44.cold during the winter. Well, I feel that the area
:39:45. > :39:46.is on the up again. Maybe five or ten years
:39:47. > :39:49.down the road from now, with wind farms and everything
:39:50. > :39:52.that's coming up to the bank, Everyone I spoke to agreed that
:39:53. > :40:02.Grimsby's economy has changed but some are still finding plenty
:40:03. > :40:16.to sing about. And we are joined live this morning
:40:17. > :40:23.by three candidates fighting for the Great Grimsby constituency, Labour
:40:24. > :40:27.Melanie, conservative's Joe Gideon and Ukip's Mike. Melanie, as you
:40:28. > :40:33.know, the bookies now have the Tories down as favourites to win
:40:34. > :40:38.Great Grimsby. Why do you believe that you are an outsider in a seat
:40:39. > :40:39.Labour has held since a long time ago?
:40:40. > :40:43.I take these balls with a pinch of salt. Looking at what the Tories
:40:44. > :40:46.have done over the last seven years the towns like Grimsby, not just
:40:47. > :40:51.Tories. People have not had 8p rise Tories. People have not had 8p rise
:40:52. > :40:56.in the last seven years. An explosion of zero hours contract. --
:40:57. > :41:02.they have not had a pay rise. And we have had our public sector cut to
:41:03. > :41:05.the bones, council and NHS and education is suffering. Those of the
:41:06. > :41:07.things people need to think about when it comes to the general
:41:08. > :41:12.election and how they will vote on the 8th of June.
:41:13. > :41:14.Joe. Melanie says Grimsby suffered under the Tories, why should people
:41:15. > :41:19.vote for you? Lot of people in Grimsby say the
:41:20. > :41:23.most important thing for them is to have a good Brexit under a strong
:41:24. > :41:28.and stable Government, and Theresa May is the person of choice.
:41:29. > :41:34.How many people, how many times will we hear strong and stable?
:41:35. > :41:38.I got it out of the way early. But the fact is Brexit is the thing that
:41:39. > :41:41.has changed the political landscape in Grimsby.
:41:42. > :41:46.With all due respect, you have been here for a matter of days, and the
:41:47. > :41:50.idea that this gives you any kind of understanding or knowledge of the
:41:51. > :41:54.difficulties that exist in Grimsby... Of course Brexit is part
:41:55. > :41:57.of it but it is not everything to do with the argument. We have an NHS
:41:58. > :42:01.Trust that has gone into special measures twice under the
:42:02. > :42:06.Conservatives, and to local nursery schools...
:42:07. > :42:09.Madaya interrupted with some airtime?
:42:10. > :42:12.Nursery schools under threat of closure and education system under
:42:13. > :42:18.billions of cuts. The thing about Brexit which is at
:42:19. > :42:21.most in the majority of people in Britain's mines in the moment, we
:42:22. > :42:26.don't have a good deal from Brexit, all the public services that we care
:42:27. > :42:29.about, it is not a monopoly of the Labour Party to care about public
:42:30. > :42:32.services... But we say that in order to serve those public services we
:42:33. > :42:39.need a strong economy. To have a strong economy we need the best deal
:42:40. > :42:41.after Brexit. The things are inextricably linked and people
:42:42. > :42:47.understand. Michael, Grimsby was a target seat
:42:48. > :42:52.for Ukip. You still say it is. But given the cars in the poll ratings
:42:53. > :42:55.for Ukip, disastrous local election results, can you describe yourself
:42:56. > :43:01.as a serious contender? Absolutely. We had a tough time at
:43:02. > :43:05.county elections but we still have 300 councillors across the country
:43:06. > :43:09.and we still have people in the Welsh assembly and the strongest
:43:10. > :43:13.party in the European Parliament. We have 20 MEPs there, and
:43:14. > :43:18.representation on the London... We are still fighting and fighting for
:43:19. > :43:20.this seat. And I believe... These goals are arguing between
:43:21. > :43:24.themselves... But the people I talk to on the streets of Grimsby say
:43:25. > :43:28.they have been abandoned by the Labour Party for 75 years and the
:43:29. > :43:31.Tories have done them no good. And they are looking for something
:43:32. > :43:33.different and a change. That changes Ukip.
:43:34. > :43:37.Girls, do you want to respond to that?
:43:38. > :43:42.I do not want to be referred to as a girl. But the last two years, I have
:43:43. > :43:47.done a huge amount. As a local MP, obviously, I am born and bred in the
:43:48. > :43:54.area, and good morning to my son who I think is watching. I have managed
:43:55. > :43:59.to bring more jobs to sectors, travelling industries, saved 300
:44:00. > :44:03.jobs in Youngs. How many jobs for local people...
:44:04. > :44:07.And managed to stop the cutting of the direct rail link between Grimsby
:44:08. > :44:10.and Manchester, saving sheltered housing. That is the hallmark of it
:44:11. > :44:14.accessible champion of the local community. Who understands the local
:44:15. > :44:20.issues. Mike asked how many of those new
:44:21. > :44:26.jobs have gone to local people? Those jobs are growing. We have had
:44:27. > :44:28.hundreds more. And... But if I talk to local businesses, who had based
:44:29. > :44:33.themselves... And international companies who we should be proud of,
:44:34. > :44:36.the fact they went to come and based themselves in Grimsby. If we're
:44:37. > :44:39.talking about having a bright future and offering new opportunities to
:44:40. > :44:42.young people, that is what we should be doing. But surveys are telling me
:44:43. > :44:47.there are local people in there. There are specialised jobs that
:44:48. > :44:51.initially were not the local people because they were so specialised,
:44:52. > :44:54.and the training was. And the key thing now is about making sure the
:44:55. > :44:58.training is available for young people, and I have spoken to young
:44:59. > :45:02.apprenticeship to transfer from transfer from mechanics, from hair
:45:03. > :45:04.and beauty and gone into working in apprenticeships for the renewables
:45:05. > :45:08.sector. That is positive and exciting.
:45:09. > :45:13.I was with Charles and Philip Hammond Grimsby Institute on Friday.
:45:14. > :45:18.-- the Chancellor. He was positive about the work it is doing training
:45:19. > :45:22.of young people in those industries. I am positive about that group in
:45:23. > :45:26.the future. But that future is entirely dependent on having a
:45:27. > :45:35.strong economy, businesses having the confidence to invest in the
:45:36. > :45:38.town. Mike said that 72 years of Labour MPs in the town and we have
:45:39. > :45:43.seen a downturn. A lot of dereliction in the town centre. A
:45:44. > :45:47.law needs to be done. I come from the outside, as Melanie says. I come
:45:48. > :45:50.at a fresh pair of eyes and people status have a change in Grimsby. My
:45:51. > :45:57.background is business, educational training, sign to bringing
:45:58. > :46:00.investment. I would like to make a point, Martin Vickers brought the
:46:01. > :46:05.chain connection... And Melanie came in at the end...
:46:06. > :46:09.Know, very much a... I keep supporting our initiative.
:46:10. > :46:13.It was a local campaign run by local people. Talking about investment,
:46:14. > :46:17.jobs were under threat in Grimsby and I managed to bring ?1 million
:46:18. > :46:19.into support that, and more investment coming into our town
:46:20. > :46:23.centre as a result of the action I have taken as Grimsby's MP for the
:46:24. > :46:28.last two years. I will say there are two and the
:46:29. > :46:33.candidate standing in the Great Grimsby Place. Liberal Democrat's
:46:34. > :46:36.Steve Beasant an independent candidate Christina McGilligan-Fell.
:46:37. > :46:44.What people really want now is true change -
:46:45. > :46:45.the Liberal Democrats can offer that.
:46:46. > :46:49.This time we are in a lot better place than we was in 2015.
:46:50. > :46:53.I recognise that, but we are offering some real alternative
:46:54. > :46:55.policies this time - education funding, health funding -
:46:56. > :46:57.and we are going to make it a fairer society,
:46:58. > :46:59.we are, for the people of Great Grimsby.
:47:00. > :47:04.We are going to make sure people don't get neglected.
:47:05. > :47:07.I believe that I could be the voice of the people.
:47:08. > :47:09.I'm very aware of the people not having a voice sometimes,
:47:10. > :47:13.and I believe that there are a lot of people that might just consider
:47:14. > :47:15.that the independent vote is worth their vote,
:47:16. > :47:17.so I would actually throw that right back.
:47:18. > :47:29.Why not let that alternative vote be for you?
:47:30. > :47:37.Mike Hook, as well as the candidate in Grimsby for Ukip, you are also
:47:38. > :47:39.there fisheries spokesman. Fisheries minister has said this weekend that
:47:40. > :47:44.after Brexit we will control access to our waters up to 200 nautical
:47:45. > :47:49.miles offshore. That is not the words. The words
:47:50. > :47:53.are, they will control the historic sovereign waters, which are, if you
:47:54. > :47:58.look into it, 12 miles. Not 200 miles.
:47:59. > :48:03.They said 200 miles. The 200 mile economic zone came in
:48:04. > :48:09.in 83 when... They're talking about 12 miles. Are backpedalling. They
:48:10. > :48:12.also said they would negotiate with other countries on vessels coming
:48:13. > :48:16.into our waters. That means to me she will negotiate with Brussels.
:48:17. > :48:20.That means foreign vessels will still fit our waters. She has not
:48:21. > :48:22.repealed the 64 London act, which means again that foreign vessels
:48:23. > :48:27.will fish our waters. Do you want to car by this? There is
:48:28. > :48:29.ambiguity about the fishing proposals announced in the Tory
:48:30. > :48:31.manifesto. manifesto.
:48:32. > :48:35.I want to clarify it but the key thing that I would differ with Mike
:48:36. > :48:40.is that in talking about the fishing industry in Grimsby, currently, as
:48:41. > :48:47.many fish go through Grimsby as did when we were at the world's largest
:48:48. > :48:50.fleet of trawlers. But they are in the fish processing are not fish
:48:51. > :48:56.capture. I think we have to be careful, looking to the future, that
:48:57. > :48:59.the future is in fish processing. You say the fishing industry has no
:49:00. > :49:04.future in terms of trawlers? I say the fishing industry, as it
:49:05. > :49:11.exists now, and likely to exist in the future, is about processing fish
:49:12. > :49:17.from Iceland and Norway. And so... This is our waters, our fish, our
:49:18. > :49:21.jobs. I was in the north-east on Friday, and there was a guy there
:49:22. > :49:27.having to buy... Having to rent fish. He had to rent a box of fish,
:49:28. > :49:34.?60, to run at four. How much will you sell out for, I said? He said,
:49:35. > :49:37.?60. Some days I don't make a penny because I have to pay my crew and
:49:38. > :49:39.diesel. This is our water and we want it back. It should be
:49:40. > :49:41.non-negotiable. Our waters, Harvard, non-negotiable. Our waters, Harvard,
:49:42. > :49:47.our jobs. To get it back, it will take at
:49:48. > :49:50.least ten years to build up. The process is there and there is a
:49:51. > :49:57.lot of investment needed. The process... We process a huge
:49:58. > :50:01.amount of fish from other countries outside the European Union. We are
:50:02. > :50:05.Europe's food town. We can still do that. We will
:50:06. > :50:07.process it and it will come into our ports, our processors, we will
:50:08. > :50:12.process and export. Wearable bees come from into our
:50:13. > :50:18.port? Our water and our seas.
:50:19. > :50:21.-- where will those that come from? Not talking a deep Sea Fleet. A
:50:22. > :50:27.bilateral agreement in the future with Iceland, Norway and Denmark,
:50:28. > :50:32.which means ten meter or 50 metre vessels. Grimsby is the biggest part
:50:33. > :50:38.in the country -- it was. We have six vessels now struggling to make a
:50:39. > :50:39.living. Melanie Onn...
:50:40. > :50:42.We need to have a viable fishing We need to have a viable fishing
:50:43. > :50:46.industry again. Is that one of the reasons Grimsby
:50:47. > :50:51.voted so heavily in favour of Brexit, because they have seen their
:50:52. > :50:52.fishing industry shafted by Brussels?
:50:53. > :50:55.People are concerned about the laws of the fishing industry because it
:50:56. > :51:02.has been there big industry and they need to replace it. Although we have
:51:03. > :51:08.big businesses in Prevacid balls -- pharmaceuticals, petrochemical and
:51:09. > :51:12.renewables. But others were promising people we would have our
:51:13. > :51:14.fishing industry back. There is nothing in the Conservative
:51:15. > :51:21.manifesto about Grimsby and its fishing industry and I would like to
:51:22. > :51:23.ask Jo, if she had the Brexit secretary incomplete. Did she ask
:51:24. > :51:27.about this? I have been asking questions in Parliament that show
:51:28. > :51:29.that absolutely no mention of our fishing industry has been made so
:51:30. > :51:34.far in the negotiations with leaving the EU.
:51:35. > :51:39.I keep asking me, Melanie. Andrea Leadsom had a productive meeting...
:51:40. > :51:43.What about the Brexit secretary? He is leading the negotiations, so what
:51:44. > :51:47.did he say? Andrea Leadsom is leading Biafra,
:51:48. > :51:53.and death threats in charge of fishing.
:51:54. > :51:57.Years in the negotiations. -- Andrea Leadsom is leading Defra
:51:58. > :52:02.and Defra is in charge of the negotiations.
:52:03. > :52:05.A lot of things have been made to be...
:52:06. > :52:07.Has not had... Briefly, very briefly we have to
:52:08. > :52:12.move on. Shameful that these two arguing
:52:13. > :52:16.about the fishing industry. We put an amendment to the Brexit vote in
:52:17. > :52:19.Brussels a view years ago and that Brexit... The run and we put
:52:20. > :52:24.together would safeguard British water and fish and jobs. Every one
:52:25. > :52:28.of the Labour and Conservative MEPs voted it down.
:52:29. > :52:30.A huge issue and we will come back to it no doubt after the election.
:52:31. > :52:33.Now, over the course of the campaign, I'll be
:52:34. > :52:35.going on an Election Car Share with senior figures
:52:36. > :52:37.from the world of politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.
:52:38. > :52:40.Today, it's the turn of Dewsbury lass and former Conservative Party
:52:41. > :52:48.Baroness Warsi, welcome to Election Car Share.
:52:49. > :53:02.I almost expect some Minions to jump out the back, actually.
:53:03. > :53:05.Can I ask you to select a track for the journey?
:53:06. > :53:08.Well, in light of the fact that this looks like the Grumobile,
:53:09. > :53:10.I think we should play the Minions track.
:53:11. > :53:27.So, how are you finding the campaign so far?
:53:28. > :53:32.It's a campaign that put us all off guard.
:53:33. > :53:35.We weren't expecting an election, and now come into it,
:53:36. > :53:38.we've done a number of campaign launches, and it's quite good fun,
:53:39. > :53:42.actually, being back, being back out on the campaign trail.
:53:43. > :53:47.Well, I've worked with Theresa for over a decade, but Theresa
:53:48. > :53:52.She doesn't really treat it as, of, a lifestyle choice
:53:53. > :53:54.where she socialises in the bars and the coffee shops
:53:55. > :54:02.So I think, as a colleague, she's a very safe pair of hands.
:54:03. > :54:04.You were part of that first coalition Government back in 2010.
:54:05. > :54:09.It was a real privilege, and, you know, for somebody like me,
:54:10. > :54:12.from where I was from in Dewsbury, to think I would end up
:54:13. > :54:16.So, to serve in Government is a huge privilege,
:54:17. > :54:18.but there was a time and a place for it,
:54:19. > :54:24.Would you go back into Government if the opportunity were to arise?
:54:25. > :54:27.I don't think I'd say never, because, look, it is a privilege
:54:28. > :54:31.So I'd never say never, but it would have to be
:54:32. > :54:34.for something quite specific that I really wanted to do,
:54:35. > :54:40.and the Government of the day felt that I was the best person to do it.
:54:41. > :54:46.I should almost say you should go right, shouldn't I?
:54:47. > :54:50.That's the last left turning we are taking.
:54:51. > :54:56.Is the Conservative Party a good place to be a Muslim woman?
:54:57. > :54:59.The Conservative Party is a party that speaks for all of Britain,
:55:00. > :55:04.I've recently been writing about this, about the challenges
:55:05. > :55:08.in Government policy towards British Muslim communities.
:55:09. > :55:10.You've written a book called Of The Enemy Within.
:55:11. > :55:16.Well, the title comes from a phrase that was used about me
:55:17. > :55:22.A right-wing writer said, to paraphrase, how can we deal
:55:23. > :55:24.with the war on terror when we've got Baroness Warsi,
:55:25. > :55:29.And I thought that was a deeply hurtful insult.
:55:30. > :55:32.And I always think that the best way to deal with insults
:55:33. > :55:35.is to field it well, and so my way of fielding that
:55:36. > :55:39.insult was to write this to pick out the nonsense of that phrase.
:55:40. > :55:41.I was critical of the way in which counterterrorism
:55:42. > :55:43.policy was being made, because it wasn't
:55:44. > :55:49.So, something like the Prevent programme, which aims to stop young
:55:50. > :55:53.people becoming radicalised, is that still fit for purpose?
:55:54. > :55:55.The Prevent programme was a fantastic programme when it
:55:56. > :56:00.It was supposed to be a genuine battle of ideas,
:56:01. > :56:03.for us to look at not just terrorism, but the drivers
:56:04. > :56:07.of terrorism, and the causes of terrorism.
:56:08. > :56:09.And unfortunately a policy which started off to be done
:56:10. > :56:13.in conjunction with Muslim communities ended up being a policy
:56:14. > :56:16.which was done to communities, and deeply distrusted by those
:56:17. > :56:19.communities, and that's why me, along with a whole series of people,
:56:20. > :56:24.are asking for an independent review of this, which I sincerely hope
:56:25. > :56:33.So, crucial question, Baroness Warsi -
:56:34. > :56:36.who will you be voting for on June the 8th?
:56:37. > :56:43.As a member of the House of Lords, I don't have a vote
:56:44. > :56:48.So that must be quite frustrating for you,
:56:49. > :56:51.sat at home on June 8th, not being able to go out
:56:52. > :56:54.I will still be going out and encouraging other people
:56:55. > :56:57.to vote Conservative, and I will be using all the influences
:56:58. > :57:02.I think we have had enough of the Minions now.
:57:03. > :57:04.Have you got another track you would like to choose?
:57:05. > :57:07.Yeah, it's a track which are used during the election in 2005,
:57:08. > :57:13.John Kerry used it, and that's why I used it,
:57:14. > :57:19.But actually it probably encapsulates what people will be
:57:20. > :57:21.saying towards the end of this election campaign, which is,
:57:22. > :57:27."A little less conversation, a little more action."
:57:28. > :57:37.# A little more bite A little less bark...#
:57:38. > :57:57.Yes, that was Baroness Warsi. Next week I will be joined by a familiar
:57:58. > :57:59.Labour figure. Interesting listening to Baroness Warsi there. She has
:58:00. > :58:03.been at the top of the Conservative Party for many years but does not
:58:04. > :58:07.seem to know Theresa May very well. Who knows anything about Theresa
:58:08. > :58:12.May, she is a mysterious woman? She seems to keep itself separate
:58:13. > :58:15.from people, whether that is a deliberate tactic or she is just not
:58:16. > :58:20.very friendly, I don't know. That election seems to be all about
:58:21. > :58:24.Theresa May. When I spoke to the Chancellor in your part of the world
:58:25. > :58:28.on Friday, he said this was all about Theresa May's strong and
:58:29. > :58:30.stable leadership, not Conservative policy. She is the poster girl for
:58:31. > :58:35.your election. You describe her as that, but
:58:36. > :58:39.absolutely. The choice is simple, it's between Theresa May's
:58:40. > :58:45.premiership or Jeremy Corbyn, and she has shown herself to be that
:58:46. > :58:47.Prime Minister that is... I think she manages to engage people across
:58:48. > :58:53.the country from different walks of life in a way that no other leader
:58:54. > :58:58.in my memory has done. OK. Your final pledges, really. What
:58:59. > :59:03.is the one issue that will decide the election for you, Mike Hookem?
:59:04. > :59:06.It is about Brexit and Theresa May also. A presidential election
:59:07. > :59:11.really. She wants a strong mandate in Westminster so she can come back
:59:12. > :59:15.from Brussels with a weak negotiation, and say, a deal in our
:59:16. > :59:19.time, and to put a strong voice in for Grimsby you have to vote for
:59:20. > :59:23.Ukip. Jo Gideon.
:59:24. > :59:26.Two choices, both funny and you get Theresa May and Bob formality and
:59:27. > :59:32.you get Jeremy Corbyn. Pensioners will be gutted by the
:59:33. > :59:37.disappointing triple whammy of their allowance, but also the social care
:59:38. > :59:41.pay, and it will be disappointed to cancelled. And rent to own is still
:59:42. > :59:48.our policy. Thank you very much, Tom Brake. Andrew, back to you.
:59:49. > :59:50.So, two and half weeks to go till polling day,
:59:51. > :59:53.let's take stock of the campaign so far and look ahead
:59:54. > :00:02.Sam, Isabel and Steve are with me again.
:00:03. > :00:09.Sam, Mrs May had made a great thing about the just about managing. Not
:00:10. > :00:15.the poorest of the poor, but not really affluent people, who are
:00:16. > :00:20.maybe OK but it's a bit of a struggle. What is in the manifesto
:00:21. > :00:24.for them? There is something about the high profile items in the
:00:25. > :00:29.manifesto. She said she wants to help those just above the poorest
:00:30. > :00:33.level. But if you look at things like the winter fuel allowance,
:00:34. > :00:38.which is going to be given only to the poorest. If you look at free
:00:39. > :00:42.school meals for infants, those for the poorest are going to be kept,
:00:43. > :00:50.but the rest will go. The social care plan, those who are renting or
:00:51. > :00:55.in properties worth up to ?90,000, they are going to be treated, but
:00:56. > :01:01.those in properties worth above that, 250,000, for example, will
:01:02. > :01:08.have to pay. Which leads to the question - what is being done for
:01:09. > :01:11.the just about managings? There is something, the personal allowance
:01:12. > :01:16.that David Cameron promised in 2015, that they are not making a big deal
:01:17. > :01:22.of that, because they cannot say by how much. So you are looking in tax
:01:23. > :01:30.rises on the just about managings. Where will the tax rises come from.
:01:31. > :01:37.We do not know, that there is the 40 million pounds gap for the Tories to
:01:38. > :01:42.reach what they are pledging in their manifesto. We do not know how
:01:43. > :01:48.that is going to be made up, more tax, or more borrowing? So that is
:01:49. > :01:52.why the questions of the implications of removing the tax
:01:53. > :01:56.lock are so potentially difficult for Tory MPs. The Labour manifesto
:01:57. > :01:59.gives figures for the cost of certain policies and where the
:02:00. > :02:04.revenue will come from. You can argue about the figures, but at
:02:05. > :02:09.least we have the figures. The Tory manifesto is opaque on these
:02:10. > :02:12.matters. That applies to both the manifestos. Looking at the Labour
:02:13. > :02:17.manifesto on the way here this morning, when you look at the
:02:18. > :02:20.section on care for the elderly, they simply say, there are various
:02:21. > :02:27.ways in which the money for this can be raised. They are specific on
:02:28. > :02:32.other things. They are, and we heard John McDonnell this morning being
:02:33. > :02:40.very on that, and saying there is not a single ? in Tory manifesto. I
:02:41. > :02:46.have only got to page 66. It is quite broad brush and they are very
:02:47. > :02:51.open to challenge. For example, on the detail of a number of their
:02:52. > :02:55.flagship things. There is no detail on their immigration policy. They
:02:56. > :03:00.reiterate the ambition, but not how they are going to do that, without a
:03:01. > :03:07.massive increase in resource for Borders officials. We are at a time
:03:08. > :03:14.where average wages are lagging behind prices. And in work benefits
:03:15. > :03:19.remain frozen. I would have thought that the just-about-managings are
:03:20. > :03:22.people who are in work but they need some in work benefits to make life
:03:23. > :03:30.tolerable and be able to pay bills. Doesn't she has to do more for them?
:03:31. > :03:37.Maybe, but this whole manifesto was her inner circle saying, right, this
:03:38. > :03:44.is our chance to express our... It partly reads like a sort of
:03:45. > :03:48.philosophical essay at times. About the challenges, individualism
:03:49. > :03:54.against collectivism. Some of it reads quite well and is quite
:03:55. > :03:58.interesting, but in terms of its detail, Labour would never get away
:03:59. > :04:02.with it. They wouldn't be allowed to be so vague about where taxes are
:04:03. > :04:07.going to rise. We know there are going to be tax rises after the
:04:08. > :04:15.election, but we don't know where they will be. 100%, there will be
:04:16. > :04:20.tax rises. We know that they wanted a tax rise in the last budget, but
:04:21. > :04:24.they couldn't get it through because of the 2015 manifesto. Labour do
:04:25. > :04:30.offer a lot more detail. People could disagree with it, but there is
:04:31. > :04:36.a lot more detail. More to get your teeth into. About capital gains tax
:04:37. > :04:41.and the rises for better owners and so on. The SNP manifesto comes out
:04:42. > :04:47.this week, and the Greens and Sinn Fein. We think Ukip as well. There
:04:48. > :04:54.are more manifestos to come. The Lib Dems have already brought theirs
:04:55. > :04:58.out. Isn't the Liberal Democrat campaign in trouble? It doesn't seem
:04:59. > :05:03.to be doing particular the well in the polls, or at the local elections
:05:04. > :05:07.a few weeks ago. The Liberal Democrats are trying to fish in
:05:08. > :05:13.quite a small pool for votes. They are looking to get votes from those
:05:14. > :05:17.remainers who want to reverse the result, in effect. Tim Farron is
:05:18. > :05:25.promising a second referendum on the deal at the end of the negotiation
:05:26. > :05:31.process. And that is a hard sell. So those voting for remain on June 23
:05:32. > :05:37.are not low hanging fruit by any means? Polls suggesting that half of
:05:38. > :05:42.those want to reverse the result, so that is a feeling of about 20% on
:05:43. > :05:45.the Lib Dems, and they are getting slightly less than half at the
:05:46. > :05:50.moment, but there are not a huge amount of votes for them to get on
:05:51. > :06:00.that strategy. It doesn't feel like Tim Farron and the Lib Dems have
:06:01. > :06:04.promised enough. They are making a very serious case on cannabis use in
:06:05. > :06:08.a nightclub, but the optics of what they are discussing doesn't make
:06:09. > :06:12.them look like an anchor in a future coalition government that they would
:06:13. > :06:16.need to be. I wonder if we are seeing the re-emergence of the
:06:17. > :06:21.2-party system? And it is not the same two parties. In Scotland, the
:06:22. > :06:24.dynamics of this election seemed to be the Nationalists against the
:06:25. > :06:39.Conservatives. In England, if you look at what has happened to be Ukip
:06:40. > :06:43.vote, and what Sam was saying about the Lib Dems are struggling a bit to
:06:44. > :06:45.get some traction, it is overwhelmingly Labour and the
:06:46. > :06:47.Conservatives. A different 2-party system from Scotland, but a 2-party
:06:48. > :06:51.system. There are a number of different election is going on in
:06:52. > :06:55.parallel. In Scotland it is about whether you are unionist or not.
:06:56. > :07:01.Here, we have the collapse of the Ukip vote, which looks as though it
:07:02. > :07:05.is being redistributed in the Tories' favour. This is a unique
:07:06. > :07:11.election, and will not necessarily set the trend for elections to come.
:07:12. > :07:16.In the Tory manifesto, I spotted the fact that the fixed term Parliament
:07:17. > :07:24.act is going to be scrapped. That got almost no coverage! It turned
:07:25. > :07:28.out to be academic anyway, that it tells you something about how
:07:29. > :07:33.Theresa May is feeling, and she wants the control to call an
:07:34. > :07:36.election whenever it suits her. Re-emergence of the 2-party system,
:07:37. > :07:46.for this election or beyond? For this election, yes, but it shows the
:07:47. > :07:49.sort of robust strength of parties and their fragility. In other words,
:07:50. > :07:54.the Lib Dems haven't really recovered from the losses in the
:07:55. > :07:59.last general election, and are therefore not really seen as a
:08:00. > :08:04.robust vehicle to deliver Remain. If they were, they might be doing
:08:05. > :08:09.better. The Labour Party hasn't recovered in Scotland, and yet, if
:08:10. > :08:13.you look at the basic divide in England and Scotland and you see two
:08:14. > :08:19.parties battling it out, it is very, very hard for the smaller parties to
:08:20. > :08:25.break through and last. Many appear briefly on the political stage and
:08:26. > :08:30.then disappear again. The election had the ostensible goal of Brexit,
:08:31. > :08:35.but we haven't heard much about it in the campaign. Perhaps the Tories
:08:36. > :08:39.want to get back onto that. David Davis sounding quite tough this
:08:40. > :08:44.morning, the Brexit minister, saying there is no chance we will talk
:08:45. > :08:48.about 100 billion. And we have to have power in the negotiations on
:08:49. > :08:53.the free trade deal or what ever it is. I think they are keen to get the
:08:54. > :08:58.subject of the manifesto at this point, because it has not started
:08:59. > :09:02.too well. There is an irony that Theresa May ostensibly called the
:09:03. > :09:06.election because she needed a stronger hand in the Brexit
:09:07. > :09:10.negotiations, and there was an opportunity for the Lib Dems, with
:09:11. > :09:15.their unique offer of being the party that is absolutely against the
:09:16. > :09:20.outcome of the referendum, and offering another chance. There
:09:21. > :09:25.hasn't been much airtime on that particular pledge, because instead,
:09:26. > :09:31.this election has segued into being all about leadership. Theresa May's
:09:32. > :09:36.leadership, and looking again at the Tory manifesto, I was struck that
:09:37. > :09:43.she was saying that this is my plan for the future, not ABBA plan. Even
:09:44. > :09:49.when talking about social care, he manages to work in a bit about
:09:50. > :09:53.Theresa May and Brexit. And Boris Johnson this morning, an interview
:09:54. > :09:58.he gave on another political programme this morning, it was
:09:59. > :10:03.extraordinarily sycophantic for him. Isn't Theresa May wonderful. There
:10:04. > :10:09.is a man trying to secure his job in the Foreign Office! Will he succeed?
:10:10. > :10:16.I think she will leave him. Better in the tent than out. What did you
:10:17. > :10:22.make of David Davis' remarks? He was basically saying, we will walk away
:10:23. > :10:29.from the negotiating table if the Europeans slam a bill for 100
:10:30. > :10:35.billion euros. The point is that the Europeans will not slam a bill for
:10:36. > :10:40.100 billion euros on the negotiating table. That is the gross figure.
:10:41. > :10:44.There are all sorts of things that need to be taken into account. I
:10:45. > :10:51.imagine they will ask for something around the 50 or ?60 billion mark.
:10:52. > :10:55.It looks that they are trying to make it look like a concession when
:10:56. > :11:00.they do make their demands in order to soften the ground for what is
:11:01. > :11:04.going to happen just two weeks after general election day. He makes a
:11:05. > :11:09.reasonable point about having parallel talks. What they want to do
:11:10. > :11:13.straightaway is deal with the bill, Northern Ireland and citizens
:11:14. > :11:16.rights. All of those things are very complicated and interlinked issues,
:11:17. > :11:20.which cannot be dealt with in isolation. I wouldn't be surprised
:11:21. > :11:25.if we ended up with parallel talks, just to work out where we are going
:11:26. > :11:31.with Northern Ireland and the border. Steve, you can't work out
:11:32. > :11:37.what the Northern Ireland border will be, and EU citizens' writes
:11:38. > :11:41.here, until you work out what our relationship with the EU in the
:11:42. > :11:46.future will be. Indeed. The British government is under pressure to deal
:11:47. > :11:51.quickly with the border issue in Ireland, but feel they can't do so
:11:52. > :11:55.because when you have a tariff free arrangement outcome, or an
:11:56. > :11:58.arrangement that is much more protectionist, and that will
:11:59. > :12:01.determine partly the nature of the border. You cannot have a quick
:12:02. > :12:05.agreement on that front without knowing the rest of the deal. I
:12:06. > :12:10.think the negotiation will be complex. I am certain they want a
:12:11. > :12:15.deal rather than none, because this is no deal thing is part of the
:12:16. > :12:19.negotiation at this early stage. Sounding tough in the general
:12:20. > :12:24.election campaign also works electorally. But after the election,
:12:25. > :12:31.it will be a tough negotiation, beginning with this cost of Brexit.
:12:32. > :12:34.My understanding is that the government feels it's got to make
:12:35. > :12:41.the Europeans think they will not do a deal in order to get a deal. They
:12:42. > :12:46.don't want no deal. Absolutely not. And I'm sure it plays into the
:12:47. > :12:50.election. I'm sure the rhetoric will change when the election is over.
:12:51. > :12:53.That's all for today, thank you to all my guests.
:12:54. > :12:55.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at 12.00
:12:56. > :12:59.And tomorrow evening I will be starting my series of interviews
:13:00. > :13:02.with the party leaders - first up is the Prime
:13:03. > :13:04.Minister, Theresa May, that's at 7pm on BBC One.
:13:05. > :13:07.And I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.
:13:08. > :13:11.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.