19/11/2017

0:00:36 > 0:00:37Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:37 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:39 > 0:00:41And this is your guide to all the big stories that

0:00:41 > 0:00:45are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.

0:00:45 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget

0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,

0:00:51 > 0:00:53show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -

0:00:53 > 0:00:59but can he change the direction of the country and his government?

0:00:59 > 0:01:01Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has

0:01:01 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.

0:01:02 > 0:01:05He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit

0:01:05 > 0:01:09- he joins me live to explain why.

0:01:09 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking

0:01:15 > 0:01:17a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses

0:01:17 > 0:01:21about Brexit.

0:01:21 > 0:01:24And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,

0:01:24 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,

0:01:27 > 0:01:29finding out who people most trust with the economy -

0:01:29 > 0:01:32Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

0:01:32 > 0:01:35On the Sunday Politics in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, we will be finding

0:01:35 > 0:01:38out what people really want to see in the budget with Brexit, jobs and

0:01:38 > 0:01:41benefit cuts high on the agenda.

0:01:49 > 0:01:51All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:51 > 0:01:54And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised

0:01:54 > 0:01:57not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -

0:01:57 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -

0:02:00 > 0:02:03it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

0:02:03 > 0:02:06Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news

0:02:06 > 0:02:08this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's

0:02:08 > 0:02:11plenty of speculation about what might or not might be

0:02:11 > 0:02:13in Philip Hammond's Budget.

0:02:13 > 0:02:16The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,

0:02:16 > 0:02:19including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.

0:02:19 > 0:02:22He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,

0:02:22 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building

0:02:25 > 0:02:28300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city

0:02:28 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.

0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal

0:02:33 > 0:02:36Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out

0:02:36 > 0:02:38a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.

0:02:38 > 0:02:41The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer

0:02:41 > 0:02:44a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.

0:02:44 > 0:02:47But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

0:02:47 > 0:02:51He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency

0:02:51 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.

0:02:53 > 0:02:57So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

0:02:57 > 0:02:59and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning

0:02:59 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.

0:03:03 > 0:03:05I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,

0:03:05 > 0:03:08and we have to embrace the opportunities that

0:03:08 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.

0:03:10 > 0:03:13They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,

0:03:13 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.

0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown

0:03:19 > 0:03:21time and time again that we're up for these challenges.

0:03:21 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.

0:03:25 > 0:03:28We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.

0:03:28 > 0:03:30Nurses, for example.

0:03:30 > 0:03:33We've had people who are now...

0:03:33 > 0:03:371.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest

0:03:37 > 0:03:39country in the world.

0:03:39 > 0:03:47That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.

0:03:47 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,

0:03:52 > 0:03:56but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk

0:03:56 > 0:04:00to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to

0:04:00 > 0:04:05set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we

0:04:05 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor

0:04:11 > 0:04:15across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think

0:04:15 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A

0:04:24 > 0:04:26short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

0:04:26 > 0:04:31They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to

0:04:31 > 0:04:35capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on

0:04:35 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are

0:04:41 > 0:04:48good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,

0:04:48 > 0:04:53Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get

0:04:53 > 0:04:56anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory

0:04:56 > 0:05:05MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have

0:05:05 > 0:05:08seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting

0:05:08 > 0:05:13in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment

0:05:13 > 0:05:17for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical

0:05:17 > 0:05:23through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold

0:05:23 > 0:05:29ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their

0:05:29 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing

0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for

0:05:38 > 0:05:42how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with

0:05:42 > 0:05:47everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation

0:05:47 > 0:05:53for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for

0:05:53 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the

0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up

0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they

0:06:06 > 0:06:11absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls

0:06:11 > 0:06:15apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from

0:06:15 > 0:06:19Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them

0:06:19 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different

0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and

0:06:27 > 0:06:35dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical

0:06:35 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic

0:06:44 > 0:06:49cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if

0:06:49 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,

0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be

0:07:00 > 0:07:05worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn

0:07:05 > 0:07:11on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,

0:07:11 > 0:07:16and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of

0:07:16 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in

0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds

0:07:24 > 0:07:29impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the

0:07:29 > 0:07:34last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much

0:07:34 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it

0:07:40 > 0:07:47is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the

0:07:47 > 0:07:51party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,

0:07:51 > 0:08:00damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction

0:08:00 > 0:08:08in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high

0:08:08 > 0:08:12inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will

0:08:12 > 0:08:17probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will

0:08:17 > 0:08:22pick up on some of this later in the programme.

0:08:22 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

0:08:25 > 0:08:27he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised

0:08:27 > 0:08:29the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences

0:08:29 > 0:08:34of leaving the EU.

0:08:34 > 0:08:38Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty

0:08:38 > 0:08:46radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

0:08:46 > 0:08:51London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we

0:08:51 > 0:08:55will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to

0:08:55 > 0:09:00the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we

0:09:00 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It

0:09:05 > 0:09:09is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the

0:09:09 > 0:09:14modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,

0:09:14 > 0:09:18which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what

0:09:18 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.

0:09:26 > 0:09:31The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the

0:09:31 > 0:09:34classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free

0:09:34 > 0:09:39trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting

0:09:39 > 0:09:47a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you

0:09:47 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the

0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on

0:09:55 > 0:10:00the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury

0:10:00 > 0:10:04have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the

0:10:04 > 0:10:08nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.

0:10:08 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the

0:10:14 > 0:10:21euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but

0:10:21 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

0:10:27 > 0:10:35who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the

0:10:35 > 0:10:39exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past

0:10:39 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the

0:10:45 > 0:10:49Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to

0:10:49 > 0:10:54you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its

0:10:54 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The

0:11:00 > 0:11:03short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most

0:11:03 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of

0:11:09 > 0:11:11political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the

0:11:11 > 0:11:17same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.

0:11:17 > 0:11:20You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,

0:11:20 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the

0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an

0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to

0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to

0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he

0:11:52 > 0:11:56is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very

0:11:56 > 0:12:02encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive

0:12:02 > 0:12:06approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very

0:12:06 > 0:12:13close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury

0:12:13 > 0:12:17and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an

0:12:17 > 0:12:21exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

0:12:21 > 0:12:27thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather

0:12:27 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in

0:12:33 > 0:12:38absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.

0:12:38 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has

0:12:42 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the

0:12:49 > 0:12:51referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been

0:12:51 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This

0:12:57 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that

0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put

0:13:09 > 0:13:15£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the

0:13:15 > 0:13:20NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was

0:13:20 > 0:13:26won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on

0:13:26 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on

0:13:31 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The

0:13:35 > 0:13:39Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we

0:13:39 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU

0:13:44 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for

0:13:48 > 0:13:53things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the

0:13:53 > 0:14:00exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government

0:14:00 > 0:14:04will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,

0:14:04 > 0:14:09or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be

0:14:09 > 0:14:13part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to

0:14:13 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to

0:14:19 > 0:14:22choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive

0:14:22 > 0:14:26schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the

0:14:26 > 0:14:36government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?

0:14:36 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we

0:14:41 > 0:14:47left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the

0:14:47 > 0:14:53remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against

0:14:53 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would

0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have

0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal

0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down

0:15:13 > 0:15:17on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face

0:15:17 > 0:15:21of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned

0:15:21 > 0:15:29if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50

0:15:29 > 0:15:39is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

0:15:39 > 0:15:43makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in

0:15:43 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of

0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you

0:15:52 > 0:15:53would.

0:15:53 > 0:15:55We're joined in the studio by the former minister

0:15:55 > 0:15:57Stephen Hammond.

0:15:57 > 0:15:59He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member

0:15:59 > 0:16:02of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named

0:16:02 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph

0:16:04 > 0:16:06this week - lucky him.

0:16:06 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

0:16:12 > 0:16:20on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a

0:16:20 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it

0:16:26 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the

0:16:31 > 0:16:35negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we

0:16:35 > 0:16:41expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March

0:16:41 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do

0:16:47 > 0:16:51harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those

0:16:51 > 0:16:55negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a

0:16:55 > 0:16:59couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019

0:16:59 > 0:17:04and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing

0:17:04 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government

0:17:11 > 0:17:14said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the

0:17:14 > 0:17:20advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by

0:17:20 > 0:17:24somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

0:17:24 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You

0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important

0:17:32 > 0:17:37that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to

0:17:37 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time

0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal

0:17:47 > 0:17:53between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be

0:17:53 > 0:17:56interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British

0:17:56 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote

0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we

0:18:05 > 0:18:09would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get

0:18:09 > 0:18:13through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:13 > 0:18:18completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I

0:18:18 > 0:18:23don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and

0:18:23 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to

0:18:29 > 0:18:31settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount

0:18:31 > 0:18:38that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:38 > 0:18:43for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick

0:18:43 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our

0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:53 > 0:18:56billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of

0:18:56 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade

0:19:01 > 0:19:06deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

0:19:06 > 0:19:12that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're

0:19:12 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,

0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The

0:19:28 > 0:19:31Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we

0:19:31 > 0:19:39don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:39 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal

0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:49 > 0:19:53others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we

0:19:53 > 0:19:57shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:57 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has

0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer

0:20:11 > 0:20:15would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

0:20:15 > 0:20:21suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But

0:20:21 > 0:20:25we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:25 > 0:20:31No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:31 > 0:20:36It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to

0:20:36 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the

0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.

0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some

0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:59 > 0:21:05suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:21:05 > 0:21:11you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some

0:21:11 > 0:21:18flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:18 > 0:21:25drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:25 > 0:21:30the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:30 > 0:21:35view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:35 > 0:21:42the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:42 > 0:21:47Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think

0:21:47 > 0:21:52that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the

0:21:52 > 0:21:57economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:57 > 0:22:03price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:22:03 > 0:22:07biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:07 > 0:22:14in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in

0:22:14 > 0:22:22additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I

0:22:22 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling

0:22:26 > 0:22:32can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:32 > 0:22:39model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:39 > 0:22:46job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long

0:22:46 > 0:22:49economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of

0:22:49 > 0:22:53business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:53 > 0:22:59much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.

0:22:59 > 0:23:03There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:03 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best

0:23:06 > 0:23:11interests of the government.Thank you.

0:23:11 > 0:23:14Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:14 > 0:23:16to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:16 > 0:23:18free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:18 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'

0:23:21 > 0:23:25and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.

0:23:25 > 0:23:28Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:28 > 0:23:30of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.

0:23:30 > 0:23:33We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders

0:23:33 > 0:23:36she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.

0:23:36 > 0:23:39Here's her film.

0:23:45 > 0:23:49I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,

0:23:49 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,

0:23:52 > 0:23:56and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:56 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.

0:24:03 > 0:24:06I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful

0:24:06 > 0:24:09of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave

0:24:09 > 0:24:11the European Union because we thought the country would be

0:24:11 > 0:24:14better off outside.

0:24:14 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:17 > 0:24:20the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining

0:24:20 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany

0:24:25 > 0:24:28experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:28 > 0:24:29The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.

0:24:29 > 0:24:35But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:37 > 0:24:40Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:40 > 0:24:42Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:42 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to

0:24:44 > 0:24:48the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:48 > 0:24:54German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:54 > 0:25:00long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.

0:25:00 > 0:25:02Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:02 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want

0:25:05 > 0:25:12that to go away.

0:25:12 > 0:25:16German business is not given to making big political statements

0:25:16 > 0:25:20out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:20 > 0:25:23positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:23 > 0:25:26with the United Kingdom.

0:25:26 > 0:25:29BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,

0:25:29 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.

0:25:33 > 0:25:37The UK is a vital market.

0:25:37 > 0:25:42What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:42 > 0:25:46because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,

0:25:46 > 0:25:51it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,

0:25:51 > 0:25:54but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,

0:25:54 > 0:25:58and what we need to see now is what is going to be

0:25:58 > 0:26:00the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,

0:26:00 > 0:26:02what is going to be the requirements for people

0:26:02 > 0:26:05moving across the continent?

0:26:05 > 0:26:08Because all of these things are important to us today.

0:26:08 > 0:26:11And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.

0:26:11 > 0:26:13Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission

0:26:13 > 0:26:18is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be

0:26:18 > 0:26:19German business, German consumers and German employees

0:26:19 > 0:26:24who will suffer.

0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete

0:26:26 > 0:26:28the first phase successfully.

0:26:28 > 0:26:32The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial

0:26:32 > 0:26:34consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.

0:26:34 > 0:26:38And then it's not a question of punishment payments.

0:26:38 > 0:26:40It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:40 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes

0:26:44 > 0:26:46a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,

0:26:46 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.

0:26:56 > 0:27:00It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.

0:27:00 > 0:27:04Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:04 > 0:27:07but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:07 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.

0:27:12 > 0:27:16Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results

0:27:16 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work

0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.

0:27:25 > 0:27:26Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:26 > 0:27:28and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.

0:27:28 > 0:27:33Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:33 > 0:27:36then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:36 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?

0:27:37 > 0:27:39It's absolutely true.

0:27:39 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.

0:27:42 > 0:27:47One, about proving that free trade is possible

0:27:47 > 0:27:50between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.

0:27:50 > 0:27:54If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,

0:27:54 > 0:27:58then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?

0:27:58 > 0:28:02Number two is, I also believe the free trade,

0:28:02 > 0:28:06free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:06 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role

0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.

0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom

0:28:15 > 0:28:18and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of

0:28:18 > 0:28:20deal we can achieve.

0:28:20 > 0:28:22Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:22 > 0:28:25As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:25 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.

0:28:31 > 0:28:35But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading

0:28:35 > 0:28:37economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,

0:28:37 > 0:28:43and that is German business.

0:28:43 > 0:28:45That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case

0:28:45 > 0:28:47and we'll be hearing from the opposite side

0:28:47 > 0:28:48of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:48 > 0:28:51Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:51 > 0:28:54He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up

0:28:54 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:56 > 0:28:58and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference

0:28:58 > 0:29:01he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:29:01 > 0:29:06Welcome both of you.

0:29:06 > 0:29:10We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German

0:29:10 > 0:29:15business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in

0:29:15 > 0:29:19their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:19 > 0:29:25said that defending the single market must be the priority for the

0:29:25 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:30 > 0:29:37states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after

0:29:37 > 0:29:42the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:42 > 0:29:49tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:49 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,

0:29:53 > 0:30:00that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion

0:30:00 > 0:30:04of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the

0:30:04 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important

0:30:12 > 0:30:18as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:18 > 0:30:24the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second

0:30:24 > 0:30:28biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:28 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:35 > 0:30:39wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at

0:30:39 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:47 > 0:30:52side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:52 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:57 > 0:31:01good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a

0:31:01 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the

0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:10 > 0:31:16us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80

0:31:16 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:21 > 0:31:26Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:26 > 0:31:31Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need

0:31:31 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:38 > 0:31:43be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:43 > 0:31:50end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:50 > 0:31:57deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:57 > 0:32:04there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,

0:32:04 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:09 > 0:32:12decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would

0:32:12 > 0:32:18have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the

0:32:18 > 0:32:22referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's

0:32:22 > 0:32:28interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic

0:32:28 > 0:32:35stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:35 > 0:32:49was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:49 > 0:32:53There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:53 > 0:32:58change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:58 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work

0:33:09 > 0:33:13together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You

0:33:13 > 0:33:20don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:20 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:31 > 0:33:36I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about

0:33:36 > 0:33:43what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:43 > 0:33:47democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:47 > 0:33:51its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:51 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to

0:33:58 > 0:34:02encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on

0:34:02 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we

0:34:08 > 0:34:12are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:12 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:18 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European

0:34:28 > 0:34:36Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:36 > 0:34:42minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:42 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:52 > 0:34:56either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision

0:34:56 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not

0:35:02 > 0:35:10stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:10 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:21 > 0:35:26Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving

0:35:26 > 0:35:31reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going

0:35:31 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of

0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:43 > 0:35:50You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:50 > 0:35:53business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in

0:35:53 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will

0:35:58 > 0:36:02find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get

0:36:02 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the

0:36:06 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually

0:36:11 > 0:36:19encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:19 > 0:36:23out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:23 > 0:36:26time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:26 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:31 > 0:36:36still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.

0:36:36 > 0:36:44I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the

0:36:44 > 0:36:48incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept

0:36:48 > 0:36:54the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:54 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:59 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to

0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:08 > 0:37:14to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at

0:37:14 > 0:37:22the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:22 > 0:37:28a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:28 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably

0:37:34 > 0:37:39spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:39 > 0:37:45the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want

0:37:45 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make

0:37:51 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:57 > 0:38:02want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of

0:38:02 > 0:38:10the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:10 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And

0:38:15 > 0:38:20they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.

0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest

0:38:25 > 0:38:27opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox

0:38:27 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:30 > 0:38:38the economy.

0:38:38 > 0:38:39Hello, and very good morning.

0:38:39 > 0:38:42You are watching the Sunday Politics for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

0:38:43 > 0:38:46Today, we have ditched the studio and we have come to Grimsby to find

0:38:46 > 0:38:49out what people here in the famous old fishing town wants to see

0:38:49 > 0:38:52in Wednesday's budget.

0:38:52 > 0:38:55In a moment, we will hear from business owners and apprentices

0:38:55 > 0:38:58about their wish list for Philip Hammond.

0:38:58 > 0:39:01Plus, we will hear from one former Chancellor who claims that

0:39:01 > 0:39:04pretty soon our membership of the European Union

0:39:04 > 0:39:06will become a distant memory.

0:39:06 > 0:39:09I think probably, in ten years' time, people will even forget

0:39:09 > 0:39:12that we were ever members of the European Union.

0:39:16 > 0:39:19But first, one of the week's biggest political flash points came

0:39:19 > 0:39:21when the Prime Minister was told in the Commons that a landlord

0:39:21 > 0:39:24here in Grimsby had sent letters to tenants warning them

0:39:24 > 0:39:26they could face eviction before Universal Credit has even been fully

0:39:27 > 0:39:30rolled out across this area.

0:39:30 > 0:39:32It is the latest row in the long-running saga over

0:39:32 > 0:39:35the controversial benefit changes which are affecting

0:39:35 > 0:39:39a growing number of people across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

0:39:39 > 0:39:41As Richard Edwards now reports.

0:39:42 > 0:39:45Joseph from Bradford and Kerry from Grimsby.

0:39:45 > 0:39:49They live 85 miles apart but say claims for Universal Credit left

0:39:49 > 0:39:51them worried they would end up on the streets.

0:39:52 > 0:39:54Really scary.

0:39:54 > 0:39:56I thought that meant that we had to be out

0:39:56 > 0:39:59straightaway within two months.

0:39:59 > 0:40:01So our first port of call was the landlord

0:40:01 > 0:40:04to see what was going on.

0:40:04 > 0:40:10My first mistake was going on to Universal Credit.

0:40:10 > 0:40:15The worst -- the worst mistake.

0:40:15 > 0:40:18Yes, I get my living allowance as promised but the rent aside,

0:40:18 > 0:40:20I'm still in the unknown about.

0:40:20 > 0:40:23Tens of thousands of people here in Leeds are due to be moved

0:40:23 > 0:40:24to Universal Credit next June.

0:40:24 > 0:40:27The city's ruling Labour group is called for that plan to be

0:40:27 > 0:40:29put on hold and it has released these figures.

0:40:29 > 0:40:33It says that more than 1000 people were sanctioned in the first year.

0:40:33 > 0:40:3577 of the sanctions saw people's benefits stopped for three months.

0:40:35 > 0:40:44Next June, 50,000 people who receive housing benefit and 55 people

0:40:44 > 0:40:47-- and 55,000 people

0:40:47 > 0:40:51who are on tax credits are due to be moved across to Universal Credit.

0:40:51 > 0:40:53It is an issue that dominated this week's Prime Minister's Questions.

0:40:53 > 0:40:55Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn mentioned a letter from Kerry's

0:40:55 > 0:40:57lettings agency as he went on the attack.

0:40:57 > 0:41:00The letter says, and I quote, "GAP property cannot sustain arrears

0:41:00 > 0:41:02at the potential levels Universal Credit could create."

0:41:02 > 0:41:10What we see is that after four months, the number of people

0:41:10 > 0:41:13on Universal Credit in arrears has fallen by one third.

0:41:13 > 0:41:15Then came this question on the effect of welfare

0:41:15 > 0:41:18reform in Yorkshire.

0:41:18 > 0:41:21Will the Prime Minister step in, show some common sense and transfer

0:41:21 > 0:41:25legacy identification from legacy benefits over to Universal Credit

0:41:25 > 0:41:29so these unnecessary delays don't give my constituents more

0:41:29 > 0:41:31pain and suffering.

0:41:31 > 0:41:33Hear, hear!

0:41:33 > 0:41:36This all adds to the pressure on the Chancellor, Philip Hammond,

0:41:36 > 0:41:38who will deliver the budget this week, to announce some changes

0:41:38 > 0:41:40to the Universal Credit plans.

0:41:40 > 0:41:43And as I heard this week, the pressure is not just

0:41:43 > 0:41:44coming from Labour.

0:41:44 > 0:41:47I'd like to see the six-week waiting time brought down to four.

0:41:48 > 0:41:51Six weeks is far too long.

0:41:51 > 0:41:54Everybody who has got a mortgage, everybody who gets paid a monthly

0:41:54 > 0:41:56basis, we would find it very difficult to budget

0:41:56 > 0:42:02for a six-week period.

0:42:02 > 0:42:05So why are people who are on lower amounts going to find it easy?

0:42:05 > 0:42:07Big towns and cities across our region like Grimsby,

0:42:07 > 0:42:09Scarborough and Bradford are due to make the change to

0:42:10 > 0:42:16Universal Credit by next March.

0:42:16 > 0:42:19Here in Leeds, the council is warning that if changes are made,

0:42:19 > 0:42:21the way it supports people on benefits could come

0:42:22 > 0:42:23close to collapse.

0:42:23 > 0:42:25Richard Edwards reporting there.

0:42:25 > 0:42:27Now, Grimsby also made national headlines during the week

0:42:27 > 0:42:30when it was revealed that figures in the local seafood industry have

0:42:30 > 0:42:33called for the area to be given special free trade status

0:42:33 > 0:42:34when Britain leave the European Union.

0:42:34 > 0:42:36Some say that is ironic, given that this area voted

0:42:36 > 0:42:38so heavily in favour of Brexit.

0:42:38 > 0:42:42As Katie Austin now reports.

0:42:42 > 0:42:45Seafood processing is a thriving industry, supporting 5000 jobs

0:42:45 > 0:42:48in the Grimsby area.

0:42:48 > 0:42:51Many firms buy from Grimsby's fish market.

0:42:51 > 0:42:53Today's offer is mainly cod.

0:42:53 > 0:42:55It's come all the way from Iceland on container,

0:42:55 > 0:42:58brought into Immingham and then brought by road from

0:42:58 > 0:43:00Immingham to Grimsby.

0:43:00 > 0:43:03Nowadays, seafood processors rely heavily on fish imported

0:43:03 > 0:43:07from non-EU countries, mainly Iceland as well as the Faroe

0:43:07 > 0:43:11Islands and as far afield as China.

0:43:11 > 0:43:19When Britain leads the Yukon it will have to make new trade deals

0:43:19 > 0:43:31-- when Britain leaves the Yukon it will have to make new trade deals --

0:43:31 > 0:43:34the European Union it will have to make new trade deals with those

0:43:34 > 0:43:35countries.

0:43:35 > 0:43:38One Grimsby Fish organisation is keen to ensure this doesn't lead

0:43:38 > 0:43:39to extra tariffs on fish.

0:43:39 > 0:43:42It also wants the government to make the ports of Immingham

0:43:42 > 0:43:44and Grimsby free trade zones, giving seafood a special boost

0:43:44 > 0:43:45by scrapping duties.

0:43:45 > 0:43:47We're asking for it. Why shouldn't we?

0:43:47 > 0:43:49We are being very selfish about it in terms of seafood.

0:43:49 > 0:43:52We are looking at ways in which we can take

0:43:52 > 0:43:53advantage of Brexit.

0:43:53 > 0:43:56So if we are no longer bound by EU law and we take back control

0:43:56 > 0:44:00of our laws and of our own destiny, we are hoping that we can take

0:44:00 > 0:44:02advantage of free trade situations that might occur.

0:44:02 > 0:44:03One food policy expert is sceptical.

0:44:03 > 0:44:06It's become a food and fishing processing town more

0:44:06 > 0:44:07than anything else.

0:44:07 > 0:44:11Just to say that we will go to a free port, I don't think

0:44:11 > 0:44:12is going to resolve it. How?

0:44:12 > 0:44:15Who are you going to trade with? How is it going to be done?

0:44:15 > 0:44:20Those who want seafood given special trade status here at knowledge

0:44:20 > 0:44:30-- act knowledge -- realise

0:44:30 > 0:44:33the devil is in the detail,

0:44:33 > 0:44:36The man who runs the fish market says other aspects of Brexit must

0:44:36 > 0:44:39take priority and we should be talking free-trade now.

0:44:39 > 0:44:40There's no merit in it at all.

0:44:40 > 0:44:43We need to work the fish industry and the first thing that needs

0:44:43 > 0:44:46to have and is sorting out the common fishing policy

0:44:46 > 0:44:49and the quotas and the fish catching and the access to waters.

0:44:49 > 0:44:50Businesses here take pride in being resilient.

0:44:50 > 0:44:52But the slow progress towards future trade agreements

0:44:52 > 0:44:54is causing nervousness among importers and exporters.

0:44:54 > 0:44:55Business is very, very difficult.

0:44:55 > 0:44:58The uncertainty at the present moment in time which we have had now

0:44:58 > 0:45:00for 14 or 15 months.

0:45:00 > 0:45:02We produce fish oil, 90% of which is exported to the EU

0:45:02 > 0:45:05and we have got no UK market for that.

0:45:05 > 0:45:06So that is a concern.

0:45:06 > 0:45:08Fish industry groups are now lobbying the UK Government

0:45:08 > 0:45:10and the Icelandic government about what they want trade

0:45:10 > 0:45:11to look like after Brexit.

0:45:11 > 0:45:16That was Katie Austin reporting.

0:45:16 > 0:45:19Of course there is much more to Grimsby than fish

0:45:19 > 0:45:21and to prove the point, we have come inside now

0:45:21 > 0:45:27to the headquarters of law firm Wilkin Chapman.

0:45:27 > 0:45:30Now, this boardroom we are in right now holds regular business summits.

0:45:30 > 0:45:33So we thought this would be a good place to take the temperature

0:45:33 > 0:45:36of the regional economy with just three days to go

0:45:36 > 0:45:37until the Chancellor delivers his autumn budget.

0:45:37 > 0:45:40And we are joined by representatives from various business

0:45:40 > 0:45:41sectors here today.

0:45:41 > 0:45:44So let me just ask you, in a nutshell, what would you lie

0:45:44 > 0:45:45to you from the Chancellor on Wednesday?

0:45:45 > 0:45:49Des?

0:45:49 > 0:45:52Well, Tim, we have just had an interest rate rise so anything

0:45:52 > 0:45:55that the Chancellor has in mind to arrest the level

0:45:55 > 0:45:56of confidence in the economy.

0:45:56 > 0:45:58Secondly, I think countless chancellors have talked

0:45:58 > 0:46:01about the amount of red tape on businesses, how they are

0:46:01 > 0:46:06going to reduce that.

0:46:06 > 0:46:09We are not seeing that come through and I would

0:46:09 > 0:46:10like to hear his plans for that.

0:46:10 > 0:46:13Sarah, what would you like to hear from the Chancellor?

0:46:13 > 0:46:15I would like to hear more support for small businesses,

0:46:15 > 0:46:18how they can make simpler schemes that are easier to understand

0:46:18 > 0:46:21and also look at the running cost of businesses and help them not

0:46:21 > 0:46:23to increase any of those costs, particularly taxes.

0:46:23 > 0:46:25Andy, what would be a good budget for you?

0:46:25 > 0:46:28In theory, this is the last budget that we are going to have previous

0:46:28 > 0:46:32to the House voting in October 2018 on the Brexit deal.

0:46:32 > 0:46:35And what we have seen in the manufacturing sector

0:46:35 > 0:46:38is investment plans have been falling off.

0:46:38 > 0:46:41So we would very much like to see something from the Chancellor

0:46:41 > 0:46:44which is bolstering business investment and how businesses can

0:46:44 > 0:46:46be supported to invest which will in turn help

0:46:46 > 0:46:48with business confidence.

0:46:48 > 0:46:50How about you, Paul?

0:46:50 > 0:46:52Well, we are a small engineering business but we support

0:46:52 > 0:46:54the manufacturing sector.

0:46:54 > 0:46:58So any help for manufacturers to help and give confidence for them

0:46:58 > 0:47:01to invest, that come through for projects

0:47:01 > 0:47:08and development for us.

0:47:08 > 0:47:11So we would like to see a very similar indication from

0:47:11 > 0:47:12where this is going.

0:47:13 > 0:47:16Many here are hoping the Chancellor will give a nod to an ambitious

0:47:16 > 0:47:18project which could transform the fortunes of Grimsby's economy.

0:47:18 > 0:47:21It has been described as the town deal.

0:47:21 > 0:47:23And it would create potentially thousands of new jobs

0:47:23 > 0:47:32in the area and some would say, put the great back into Grimsby,

0:47:32 > 0:47:34as Sarah Sanderson reports.

0:47:35 > 0:47:38Like many post-industrial towns, Grimsby has seen its fair share

0:47:38 > 0:47:41of economic decline.

0:47:41 > 0:47:44But times are changing in north-east Lincolnshire.

0:47:44 > 0:47:47The council, along with the private sector, have come up with a plan

0:47:47 > 0:47:50called the Greater Grimsby Town Deal.

0:47:50 > 0:47:53They are hoping to work with the government to regenerate

0:47:53 > 0:47:56the area on a massive scale.

0:47:56 > 0:47:58It's not just about a funding bid at all.

0:47:58 > 0:48:02It's about seeking freedoms, flexibilities, and yes, some funds.

0:48:02 > 0:48:10But it's about getting governments to recognise that we want them

0:48:10 > 0:48:12to work with us because I believe, I've

0:48:12 > 0:48:14always believed, that if you have got the passion,

0:48:14 > 0:48:16the vision and the ambition, funding or resources

0:48:16 > 0:48:20will follow that ambition.

0:48:20 > 0:48:26The aims of the greater Grimsby projects over the next ten years

0:48:26 > 0:48:29are to grow the local economy by more than £216 million per year,

0:48:29 > 0:48:35create over 5000 jobs and build around 7700 new homes.

0:48:35 > 0:48:37Last month, the Kasbah here on the Grimsby Port estate

0:48:37 > 0:48:41was made into a conservation area.

0:48:41 > 0:48:44It will now be protected from demolition and its conservation

0:48:44 > 0:48:48area status will hopefully bring in funding to help develop buildings

0:48:48 > 0:48:52like these while maintaining their rich heritage.

0:48:52 > 0:48:59The idea is to turn local history into economic success.

0:48:59 > 0:49:01And the private sector says it is in their best interest

0:49:02 > 0:49:04to get behind this vision.

0:49:04 > 0:49:09Grimsby has a proud maritime history behind it as a town.

0:49:09 > 0:49:14The port of Grimsby has a proud future ahead of it as well.

0:49:14 > 0:49:16Conservation area status for the Kasbah helps helps ABP to do

0:49:16 > 0:49:20what we are hoping to do, which is to help keep

0:49:20 > 0:49:23what is special about the port of Grimsby was also investing

0:49:23 > 0:49:27in real jobs and real regeneration for the area.

0:49:27 > 0:49:29Students in Grimsby are hopeful it will bring new career

0:49:29 > 0:49:32opportunities closer to home.

0:49:32 > 0:49:36I don't believe people particularly wish to travel and commute to work

0:49:36 > 0:49:40so to have opportunities almost on your doorstep is a great

0:49:40 > 0:49:46opportunity for the local students.

0:49:46 > 0:49:49And a lot of the students here are local so if they can

0:49:49 > 0:49:59graduate here with a degree and then put that agree to use locally again

0:49:59 > 0:50:06-- and then put that degree to use locally, it is ideal for everyone.

0:50:06 > 0:50:09The council says this town deal plan could even be reproduced elsewhere.

0:50:09 > 0:50:12It can be rolled out, it's just it will have to be applied

0:50:12 > 0:50:14for different northern towns.

0:50:14 > 0:50:16But government recognises that this can be a template

0:50:16 > 0:50:17that can be rolled out.

0:50:17 > 0:50:19Different areas with different needs, but it is something

0:50:19 > 0:50:21that can be applied as a series of principles.

0:50:21 > 0:50:24All they want now is commitment from the government to help

0:50:24 > 0:50:25make Grimsby greater.

0:50:26 > 0:50:27Sarah, thank you.

0:50:27 > 0:50:29Who knew there was a kasbah in Grimsby?

0:50:29 > 0:50:35Well, I'm joined now by Danielle and Macauley.

0:50:35 > 0:50:38Danielle is a trainee solicitor and Macauley

0:50:38 > 0:50:41was an apprentice sheet metal worker but he is now fully qualified.

0:50:41 > 0:50:43You are both young people who have found a successful

0:50:43 > 0:50:44career path in this area.

0:50:44 > 0:50:47What more needs to be done to create jobs for younger people in this

0:50:48 > 0:50:49part of the country?

0:50:49 > 0:50:50I think, personally, there are jobs and opportunities

0:50:51 > 0:50:53for young people in the area.

0:50:53 > 0:50:56I mean, really it is about young people knowing where to look

0:50:56 > 0:50:59and having the support to know what jobs are right for them

0:50:59 > 0:51:02and where to apply for them.

0:51:02 > 0:51:04So it is really taking an active step yourself

0:51:04 > 0:51:06and putting yourself out there.

0:51:06 > 0:51:08Macauley, you didn't go away, did you?

0:51:08 > 0:51:11Obviously, you learnt a skill.

0:51:11 > 0:51:19Were you under pressure from people perhaps that's cool,

0:51:19 > 0:51:22-- perhaps at school,

0:51:22 > 0:51:25careers advisers, to go away to college, go away to university?

0:51:25 > 0:51:26Yeah. Being a higher grade...

0:51:26 > 0:51:29Scoring high grades on my GCSEs, I was encouraged

0:51:29 > 0:51:30to go to university.

0:51:30 > 0:51:33Careers advice, when I went in and told them I wanted

0:51:33 > 0:51:35to do an apprenticeship, they basically told me that wasn't

0:51:35 > 0:51:37the right path to go down, there weren't many apprenticeships

0:51:37 > 0:51:41to go for and I had a much safer route is going to university

0:51:41 > 0:51:43and getting a degree and finding a job from there.

0:51:43 > 0:51:45I applied to Allied Protec for an apprenticeship

0:51:45 > 0:51:47and I was taken on straight out of school.

0:51:47 > 0:51:51From there, they trained me, I have been able to represent the UK

0:51:51 > 0:51:55for the World Skills Abu Dhabi 2017.

0:51:55 > 0:51:57I have just got back.

0:51:57 > 0:52:00What was that, like the World Cup for apprentices?

0:52:00 > 0:52:01Yeah!

0:52:01 > 0:52:03They call it the skills Olympics.

0:52:03 > 0:52:05This has traditionally been an area where there have been

0:52:05 > 0:52:06quite a few people...

0:52:06 > 0:52:08NEETS, they are called, not in education,

0:52:08 > 0:52:10employment or training.

0:52:10 > 0:52:14What do you think needs to be done to address that?

0:52:14 > 0:52:17I think there needs to be support for people who maybe are at school

0:52:17 > 0:52:20and have just finished university so they know that maybe

0:52:20 > 0:52:23they have undertaken a degree or an apprenticeship

0:52:23 > 0:52:26and their education is coming to an end, to find out

0:52:26 > 0:52:28what the best route is for them.

0:52:28 > 0:52:32For me, I wanted to go to university and knew

0:52:32 > 0:52:36it was the right thing for me, but I think you need to want to go.

0:52:36 > 0:52:38You need to like the course that you are doing.

0:52:38 > 0:52:40So it is is just having that support.

0:52:40 > 0:52:43Both whilst you are studying and when you have finished, to find

0:52:43 > 0:52:45the path that is right for you.

0:52:45 > 0:52:47And what would you say to other young people

0:52:47 > 0:52:50in this area who say, well, if we want to build a career,

0:52:50 > 0:52:54and make a success of our lives, we have to move away from this part

0:52:54 > 0:52:55of the world?

0:52:55 > 0:52:57That's not the case at all.

0:52:57 > 0:53:00I'm quite lucky at Allied Protec, they have given me every opportunity

0:53:00 > 0:53:01to further my skills, further my studies.

0:53:01 > 0:53:03So although I have just finished my apprenticeship,

0:53:03 > 0:53:06they have never stopped me from going on...

0:53:06 > 0:53:10I could still goes university, I could still get degrees.

0:53:10 > 0:53:13But I have a skill, I have a job, I have trade now.

0:53:13 > 0:53:17I'm doing very well, I'm 21.

0:53:17 > 0:53:20I have a trade under my belt and I can now go further

0:53:20 > 0:53:21and build my career from here.

0:53:21 > 0:53:27They have given me great building blocks to do that.

0:53:27 > 0:53:30It's all down to the person and down to the personal drive

0:53:30 > 0:53:33and whether they want to go out and want to do it.

0:53:33 > 0:53:35Paul, we have heard from your apprentice Macauley there.

0:53:35 > 0:53:38What more needs to be done to create better jobs for young

0:53:38 > 0:53:40people in this area?

0:53:40 > 0:53:42The opportunities generally are coming from the smaller

0:53:42 > 0:53:45businesses, medium-size businesses.

0:53:45 > 0:53:48What this area lacks is the real big employers

0:53:48 > 0:53:52where they are taking in...

0:53:52 > 0:53:54I have recently visited one of the big manufacturers in the Midlands.

0:53:54 > 0:54:01They are taking on 100 people per year.

0:54:01 > 0:54:04We have massive skill shortages in this area and I don't see

0:54:04 > 0:54:14the people training the level the people we need is to

0:54:16 > 0:54:22-- I don't see the people training the level all the people we need to

0:54:22 > 0:54:24supply our business.

0:54:24 > 0:54:26So is the government, Andy, doing enough to help organisations

0:54:26 > 0:54:28like yours take on apprentices?

0:54:28 > 0:54:30We as an organisation have very few apprentices.

0:54:30 > 0:54:32Our members take very significant numbers of apprentices.

0:54:32 > 0:54:33There is a well-documented national skills shortage.

0:54:33 > 0:54:36We do not have enough people coming through the system for a start.

0:54:36 > 0:54:37With the indigenous population.

0:54:37 > 0:54:40In terms of what is the government doing for skills, I think it

0:54:40 > 0:54:42starts off at school.

0:54:42 > 0:54:45And the jobs that are going to be around tomorrow don't exist today

0:54:45 > 0:54:48so we need to be training young people going through the school

0:54:48 > 0:54:54system to have sex ability skills, to be able to problem solve.

0:54:54 > 0:54:59-- to have flexibility skills, to be able to problem solve.

0:54:59 > 0:55:03Des, we hear this claim quite a lot from bosses who say that kids

0:55:03 > 0:55:05coming out of school, they might have the qualifications

0:55:05 > 0:55:07but they aren't equipped for the real world.

0:55:07 > 0:55:08Is that fair?

0:55:08 > 0:55:10Well, we are certainly equipping them to pass their A-levels

0:55:10 > 0:55:12because the A-level results are going up and up.

0:55:12 > 0:55:15So academically or technically, those sorts of skills are there.

0:55:15 > 0:55:16But my business is a law firm.

0:55:16 > 0:55:20And one of the key skills we need is to be able to deal

0:55:20 > 0:55:22with the clients and to have good interpersonal skills.

0:55:22 > 0:55:25So I question how much we are doing to train our young people

0:55:25 > 0:55:26in those sorts of skills.

0:55:26 > 0:55:29Because a lot of young people don't find them that natural.

0:55:30 > 0:55:39One of the people who is involved with this huge plan to regenerate

0:55:39 > 0:55:41Grimsby and the surrounding area is the former Chancellor

0:55:41 > 0:55:43of the Exchequer, Norman Lamont.

0:55:43 > 0:55:46Now, did you know Norman Lamont spent much of his younger life

0:55:46 > 0:55:47right here in Grimsby.

0:55:47 > 0:55:50I caught up with him at Westminster.

0:55:50 > 0:55:52This is how most people will remember Norman Le Monde,

0:55:52 > 0:55:54as Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer during a difficult

0:55:54 > 0:55:55time for the British economy.

0:55:55 > 0:55:57But many won't know about his links to Grimsby.

0:55:57 > 0:56:02Lord Lamont spent his teenage years in the town and still describes

0:56:02 > 0:56:04himself as a fan of the mighty Mariners.

0:56:04 > 0:56:08I am a fan of the Mariners.

0:56:08 > 0:56:11I was an even keener fan of the Mariners, I used to go

0:56:11 > 0:56:17to Blundell Park quite often.

0:56:17 > 0:56:20I thought Grimsby was a very warm place, is very distinct sense

0:56:20 > 0:56:22of community and I thoroughly enjoyed being there.

0:56:22 > 0:56:24It was a very, very friendly place.

0:56:24 > 0:56:26And of course, it was a lot more prosperous than.

0:56:26 > 0:56:29The fishing industry was still very strong and feeding the food

0:56:29 > 0:56:30industry at the same time.

0:56:30 > 0:56:37It wasn't a high employment area in the way that it is today.

0:56:37 > 0:56:43-- it was not a high unemployment area as it is today.

0:56:43 > 0:56:45It didn't have the dereliction that Grimsby has today.

0:56:45 > 0:56:47Sadly, things have changed for Grimsby, partly because of the

0:56:47 > 0:56:50decline in fishing but partly because of other structural changes.

0:56:50 > 0:56:52You have become involved in proposals for this new town deal.

0:56:52 > 0:56:54What prompted you to become involved with that?

0:56:54 > 0:56:58When I was asked by David Ross, who has thought up this idea

0:56:58 > 0:57:02of rejuvenating parts of the town and getting private money in and

0:57:02 > 0:57:05talking to government about it, he asked me if I would help.

0:57:05 > 0:57:08I'm not sure I can help with anything

0:57:08 > 0:57:13other than a modest way, but I'm happy to do whatever I can because I

0:57:13 > 0:57:23hugely enjoyed being in Grimsby and would like to give something back.

0:57:32 > 0:57:34When you hear critics saying Brexit will be a disaster

0:57:34 > 0:57:36for places like Grimsby, what is your response?

0:57:36 > 0:57:37That's nonsense.

0:57:37 > 0:57:39Why should it be a disaster for Grimsby?

0:57:39 > 0:57:40Grimsby is a port.

0:57:40 > 0:57:42Trade will continue to flow in both directions.

0:57:42 > 0:57:45I don't believe Brexit for one minute is going to be a disaster.

0:57:45 > 0:57:48There are lots of opportunities and I think ten years' time,

0:57:48 > 0:57:50people will even forget that we were ever members

0:57:50 > 0:57:51of the European Union.

0:57:51 > 0:57:53Well, that's an interesting claim, isn't it?

0:57:53 > 0:57:55In ten years' time, people will have forgotten we were ever members

0:57:56 > 0:57:57of the European Union.

0:57:57 > 0:57:58What you make of that, Andy?

0:57:58 > 0:58:01It is a very interesting claim, but unfortunately, we have got

0:58:01 > 0:58:07to deal with the reality and the year and now.

0:58:07 > 0:58:09-- the here and now.

0:58:09 > 0:58:12What we have is a situation that businesses do not

0:58:12 > 0:58:13know what is happening.

0:58:13 > 0:58:15It is that lack of clarity, that lack of leadership,

0:58:15 > 0:58:17that lack of direction from the government in terms

0:58:17 > 0:58:21of what the deal is going to look like, will there be a traitor,

0:58:21 > 0:58:26were that the regulations on countries of origin?

0:58:26 > 0:58:31-- will there be a treaty, will there be regulations on countries of

0:58:31 > 0:58:33origin.

0:58:33 > 0:58:35Supply chains are very, very complex and often goes

0:58:35 > 0:58:36across borders multiple times.

0:58:36 > 0:58:39So we need to know, businesses need to know, what that plan

0:58:39 > 0:58:40is going to look like.

0:58:40 > 0:58:42Without a plan, they can't plan for anything.

0:58:42 > 0:58:44How do you view the Brexit process so far, Paul?

0:58:44 > 0:58:47Well, we are seeing an immediate effect because we are seeing our

0:58:47 > 0:58:50trade overseas with a weak pound is benefiting in the short-term

0:58:50 > 0:58:52but the long-term, I don't see the benefits.

0:58:52 > 0:58:54But a lot of the manufacturing businesses we support already

0:58:54 > 0:58:56curtailing decisions and not making decisions where

0:58:56 > 0:58:57investment was planned.

0:58:57 > 0:59:00We had quite a sizeable Teesside business, planning

0:59:00 > 0:59:02a sizeable extension to make their factory

0:59:02 > 0:59:06their European hub.

0:59:06 > 0:59:08Now, that has gone on hold because they don't know

0:59:08 > 0:59:11if they are going to be in Europe and what the tariffs

0:59:11 > 0:59:13and what the export criteria will be for their products.

0:59:13 > 0:59:16So we have seen both sides, we have seen some positives

0:59:16 > 0:59:20but we also seeing big negatives.

0:59:20 > 0:59:30What about you, Sarah?

0:59:32 > 0:59:35What are businesses saying to you about Brexit?

0:59:35 > 0:59:40It's an unsettling time but I must say, the businesses

0:59:40 > 0:59:43we have been out to see, it hasn't been a main

0:59:43 > 0:59:44topic of conversation.

0:59:44 > 0:59:46They are still wanting to grow and they are looking

0:59:47 > 0:59:48at new trade opportunities.

0:59:48 > 0:59:51One business we helped to start up got some funding from the Department

0:59:51 > 0:59:53of International Trade and they went out to Holland and now

0:59:53 > 0:59:55they are exporting globally to Europe and to Africa

0:59:56 > 0:59:57and the Americas.

0:59:57 > 0:59:59It hasn't been a main topic of conversation for the businesses

0:59:59 > 1:00:06that we have been visiting.

1:00:06 > 1:00:10This was a big Brexit supporting area, have there been changes of

1:00:10 > 1:00:16ideas, there have been surveys sane people would not change their minds

1:00:16 > 1:00:22if the vote was on a game, which surprised me.But we have had

1:00:22 > 1:00:29executive deals in boardrooms recently whereby people don't know

1:00:29 > 1:00:35what to do. More support needs to be given and leadership by the

1:00:35 > 1:00:40government on this to small businesses and what people should be

1:00:40 > 1:00:45doing. So they are getting on with it, as Churchill said in the Second

1:00:45 > 1:00:49World War, when the bombs were raining down, we will just keep on

1:00:49 > 1:00:54going on. And that is what businesses are doing. Including my

1:00:54 > 1:01:02own. So I don't know if I agree with Mr Lamont or not, but I can see a

1:01:02 > 1:01:06situation where we are meant to be really being in 2019, there may be

1:01:06 > 1:01:10an extension and then maybe one after that. So as the Eagles

1:01:10 > 1:01:15famously said in the song Hotel California, you can check out any

1:01:15 > 1:01:20time you like, but you can never leave.I thought you were going to

1:01:20 > 1:01:30break into song!I can do, if you like.Not quite karaoke time. Three

1:01:30 > 1:01:35more sleeps until the autumn bug -- budget.

1:01:39 > 1:01:41Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:41 > 1:01:45he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:45 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes

1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.

1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust

1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:53 > 1:01:57Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.

1:01:57 > 1:02:05MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.

1:02:05 > 1:02:08All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out

1:02:08 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.

1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,

1:02:17 > 1:02:23Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:23 > 1:02:27No 7.

1:02:27 > 1:02:32Which one's Tory?

1:02:38 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two

1:02:40 > 1:02:44elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:44 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters

1:02:47 > 1:02:49would you trust with the economy, what would you say?

1:02:49 > 1:02:51The one who's currently running it, because they

1:02:51 > 1:02:53seem to be bringing the deficit down.

1:02:53 > 1:02:54Labour.

1:02:54 > 1:02:55Why?

1:02:55 > 1:02:57Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:57 > 1:03:01For me, it's just about spending, public spending.

1:03:01 > 1:03:06Labour always overspend.

1:03:06 > 1:03:11John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:11 > 1:03:16and I think we need a radical re-think.

1:03:16 > 1:03:19Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:19 > 1:03:20No one.

1:03:20 > 1:03:23Why?

1:03:23 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they

1:03:28 > 1:03:29reckon they're going to do.

1:03:29 > 1:03:31If I had to make you choose one of them?

1:03:31 > 1:03:33The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:33 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a

1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.

1:03:42 > 1:03:43Oh, hello.

1:03:43 > 1:03:45Who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:45 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:46 > 1:03:47Do you? Why's that?

1:03:47 > 1:03:50I just think they're better for the small businessman.

1:03:50 > 1:03:52We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,

1:03:52 > 1:03:55somebody in there with balls to say, right,

1:03:55 > 1:03:56that's the direction we are

1:03:56 > 1:03:58going in, that's what we are going to do.

1:03:58 > 1:04:01I've got balls!

1:04:01 > 1:04:02What are you doing?

1:04:02 > 1:04:09Putting balls in holes by the look of it!

1:04:09 > 1:04:12I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:12 > 1:04:15but I say that without a great deal of conviction.

1:04:15 > 1:04:17Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the

1:04:17 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:19 > 1:04:23Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money

1:04:23 > 1:04:29and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.

1:04:29 > 1:04:32I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it

1:04:32 > 1:04:35is clearing up time here at the diner and time

1:04:35 > 1:04:37to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:37 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.

1:04:39 > 1:04:42As you can say it was a close-run thing, but

1:04:42 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:51 > 1:04:55Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:55 > 1:04:57That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:57 > 1:04:59at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.

1:04:59 > 1:05:02But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view

1:05:02 > 1:05:05the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look

1:05:05 > 1:05:06at some recent polling.

1:05:06 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:09 > 1:05:12when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,

1:05:12 > 1:05:15when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many

1:05:15 > 1:05:17other areas.

1:05:17 > 1:05:20The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:20 > 1:05:22the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,

1:05:22 > 1:05:28although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:28 > 1:05:31And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:31 > 1:05:37showing that while the gap between Theresa May

1:05:37 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election

1:05:39 > 1:05:41period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,

1:05:41 > 1:05:42still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or

1:05:42 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.

1:05:44 > 1:05:46And when it comes to how people intend to vote

1:05:46 > 1:05:49while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a

1:05:49 > 1:05:50big Labour lead yet.

1:05:50 > 1:05:53Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"

1:05:53 > 1:05:56inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:56 > 1:06:0010 or 15 points ahead.

1:06:00 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:03 > 1:06:06and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely

1:06:06 > 1:06:12wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?

1:06:12 > 1:06:20Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:20 > 1:06:25economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:25 > 1:06:32Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:32 > 1:06:35of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:35 > 1:06:40imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national

1:06:40 > 1:06:43security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:43 > 1:06:48circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:48 > 1:06:54for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:54 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We

1:07:00 > 1:07:06underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:06 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The

1:07:11 > 1:07:15government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:15 > 1:07:19resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:19 > 1:07:22people are having a really tough time and looking at the government

1:07:22 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems

1:07:27 > 1:07:34to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:34 > 1:07:40Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I

1:07:40 > 1:07:44think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:44 > 1:07:47Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they

1:07:47 > 1:07:53have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:53 > 1:07:59had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:59 > 1:08:06They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.

1:08:06 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:11 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think

1:08:16 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:21 > 1:08:26next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:26 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:30 > 1:08:34of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:34 > 1:08:39certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very

1:08:39 > 1:08:44well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I

1:08:44 > 1:08:49am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:49 > 1:08:56that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:56 > 1:09:04Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:09:04 > 1:09:07Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:07 > 1:09:13to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:13 > 1:09:18despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:18 > 1:09:24the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have

1:09:24 > 1:09:30just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that

1:09:30 > 1:09:34Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:34 > 1:09:41Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:41 > 1:09:48people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have

1:09:48 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context

1:09:52 > 1:10:00of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future

1:10:00 > 1:10:10unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,

1:10:10 > 1:10:15unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that

1:10:15 > 1:10:20against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think

1:10:20 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:24 > 1:10:28they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they

1:10:28 > 1:10:33have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:33 > 1:10:39a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:39 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be

1:10:43 > 1:10:48talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:48 > 1:10:51you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:51 > 1:10:57the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:57 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:11:01 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they

1:11:06 > 1:11:11offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December

1:11:11 > 1:11:14council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:14 > 1:11:19conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get

1:11:19 > 1:11:24that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:24 > 1:11:27revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:27 > 1:11:37more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:37 > 1:11:42as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:42 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:50 > 1:11:57Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested

1:11:57 > 1:12:03that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's

1:12:03 > 1:12:07another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime

1:12:07 > 1:12:12Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:12 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where

1:12:17 > 1:12:23we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:23 > 1:12:27European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on

1:12:27 > 1:12:40it until we are satisfied with the next

1:12:46 > 1:12:48stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:48 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that

1:12:51 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:53 > 1:12:55not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the

1:12:55 > 1:12:58astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:58 > 1:13:02going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the

1:13:02 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in

1:13:07 > 1:13:10terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will

1:13:10 > 1:13:15look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,

1:13:15 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:21 > 1:13:24Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each

1:13:24 > 1:13:29other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.

1:13:29 > 1:13:30That's all for today.

1:13:30 > 1:13:33Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:33 > 1:13:37Until then, bye bye.