:00:39. > :00:41.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:42. > :00:48.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:49. > :00:49.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:50. > :00:55.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:56. > :01:02.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:03. > :01:04.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:05. > :01:07.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:08. > :01:16.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:17. > :01:30.And should we be targeting Syria, too?
:01:31. > :01:35.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:36. > :01:40.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:41. > :01:44.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:45. > :01:47.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:48. > :01:53.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:54. > :01:57.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:58. > :02:00.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:02:01. > :02:03.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:04. > :02:07.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:08. > :02:10.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:11. > :02:14.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:15. > :02:18.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:19. > :02:24.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:25. > :02:31.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:32. > :02:43.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:44. > :02:47.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:48. > :02:50.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:51. > :02:54.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:55. > :02:56.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:57. > :03:04.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:05. > :03:12.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:13. > :03:15.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:16. > :03:19.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:20. > :03:22.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:23. > :03:27.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:28. > :03:31.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:32. > :03:36.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:37. > :03:40.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:41. > :03:43.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:44. > :03:48.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:49. > :03:51.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:52. > :03:56.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:57. > :04:02.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:03. > :04:06.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:07. > :04:10.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:11. > :04:15.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:16. > :04:20.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:21. > :04:41.Tories. This is your voice mail... I have just picked up your e-mail...
:04:42. > :04:46.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:47. > :04:53.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:54. > :04:58.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:59. > :05:00.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:05:01. > :05:04.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:05. > :05:08.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:09. > :05:14.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:15. > :05:23.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:24. > :05:29.That is why I am moving to UKIP, so I can deliver the change this
:05:30. > :05:35.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:36. > :05:40.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:41. > :05:46.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:47. > :05:49.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:50. > :05:53.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:54. > :05:56.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:57. > :05:59.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:06:00. > :06:04.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:05. > :06:09.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:10. > :06:14.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:15. > :06:17.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:18. > :06:24.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:25. > :06:29.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:30. > :06:33.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2010
:06:34. > :06:37.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:38. > :06:41.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:42. > :06:45.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:46. > :06:48.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:49. > :06:54.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:55. > :07:01.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:07:02. > :07:10.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:11. > :07:14.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:15. > :07:19.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:20. > :07:23.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:24. > :07:29.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:30. > :07:33.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:34. > :07:36.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:37. > :07:47.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:48. > :07:51.MPs who have moved party before, almost none of them have given their
:07:52. > :07:55.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:56. > :07:59.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:08:00. > :08:03.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:04. > :08:06.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:07. > :08:14.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:15. > :08:17.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:18. > :08:25.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:26. > :08:29.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:30. > :08:34.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:35. > :08:38.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:39. > :08:45.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:46. > :08:47.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:48. > :08:54.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:55. > :08:57.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:58. > :09:02.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:03. > :09:05.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:06. > :09:09.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things,
:09:10. > :09:14.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:15. > :09:17.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:18. > :09:21.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:22. > :09:26.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:27. > :09:33.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:34. > :09:40.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:41. > :09:43.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:44. > :09:50.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:51. > :09:53.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:54. > :10:00.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:10:01. > :10:03.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:04. > :10:10.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:11. > :10:16.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:17. > :10:21.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:22. > :10:34.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:35. > :10:39.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:40. > :10:42.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:43. > :10:46.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:47. > :10:52.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:53. > :10:57.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:58. > :11:01.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:02. > :11:04.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:05. > :11:08.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:09. > :11:14.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:15. > :11:19.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:20. > :11:23.of us were not around in the 1980s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:24. > :11:26.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose, the
:11:27. > :11:29.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:30. > :11:32.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:33. > :11:37.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:38. > :11:41.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:42. > :11:46.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:47. > :11:52.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:53. > :11:56.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:57. > :12:03.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:04. > :12:08.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:09. > :12:13.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:14. > :12:18.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:19. > :12:22.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:23. > :12:26.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:27. > :12:32.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:33. > :12:36.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:37. > :12:40.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:41. > :12:44.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:45. > :12:49.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:50. > :12:54.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:55. > :13:01.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:02. > :13:05.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:06. > :13:10.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:11. > :13:22.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:23. > :13:24.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:25. > :13:29.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:30. > :13:34.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over 1,000 councillors -
:13:35. > :13:36.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:37. > :13:50.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:51. > :13:53.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:54. > :13:57.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:58. > :14:03.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:04. > :14:09.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:10. > :14:12.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:13. > :14:17.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:18. > :14:24.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:25. > :14:28.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:29. > :14:33.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:34. > :14:36.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:37. > :14:45.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:46. > :14:48.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:49. > :14:54.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:55. > :15:00.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:15:01. > :15:12.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:13. > :15:20.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:21. > :15:25.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:26. > :15:30.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:31. > :15:34.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:35. > :15:39.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:40. > :15:46.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:47. > :15:51.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:52. > :15:58.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:59. > :16:03.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:04. > :16:12.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:13. > :16:17.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:18. > :16:24.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:25. > :16:30.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:31. > :16:35.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:36. > :16:41.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:42. > :16:48.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:49. > :16:53.way by setting a rule like that, it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:54. > :16:59.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:17:00. > :17:05.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:06. > :17:10.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:11. > :17:16.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:17. > :17:21.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:22. > :17:27.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:28. > :17:33.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:34. > :17:36.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:37. > :17:41.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:42. > :17:45.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:46. > :17:50.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:51. > :17:57.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:58. > :18:03.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:04. > :18:07.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:08. > :18:10.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:11. > :18:16.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:17. > :18:21.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:22. > :18:27.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:28. > :18:33.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:34. > :18:37.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:38. > :18:42.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:43. > :18:47.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:48. > :18:52.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:53. > :18:57.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:58. > :19:03.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:04. > :19:08.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:09. > :19:14.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:15. > :19:19.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:20. > :19:25.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:26. > :19:29.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:30. > :19:34.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:35. > :19:40.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:41. > :19:44.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:45. > :19:49.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:50. > :19:57.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:58. > :20:01.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:02. > :20:09.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:10. > :20:15.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:16. > :20:19.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:20. > :20:23.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:24. > :20:31.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:32. > :20:36.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:37. > :20:39.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:40. > :20:44.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:45. > :20:49.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:50. > :20:54.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:55. > :21:01.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher...
:21:02. > :21:06.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:07. > :21:15.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:16. > :21:19.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:20. > :21:22.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:23. > :21:30.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:31. > :21:37.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:38. > :21:50.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:51. > :21:56.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,000,
:21:57. > :22:14.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250,000
:22:15. > :22:22.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:23. > :22:26.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:27. > :22:31.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:32. > :22:38.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:39. > :22:42.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:43. > :22:48.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:49. > :22:53.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:54. > :22:59.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:23:00. > :23:04.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:05. > :23:09.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:10. > :23:15.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:16. > :23:20.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:21. > :23:24.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:25. > :23:29.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:30. > :23:33.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:34. > :23:37.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:38. > :23:42.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:43. > :23:47.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:48. > :23:55.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:56. > :24:01.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:02. > :24:10.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:11. > :24:17.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:18. > :24:21.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:22. > :24:28.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:29. > :24:33.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:34. > :24:38.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:39. > :24:41.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:42. > :24:45.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:46. > :24:49.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:50. > :24:55.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:56. > :24:59.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:25:00. > :25:05.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:06. > :25:10.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:11. > :25:15.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:16. > :25:20.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:21. > :25:26.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:27. > :25:34.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:35. > :25:38.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:39. > :25:42.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:43. > :25:48.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:49. > :25:52.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:53. > :25:58.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:59. > :26:03.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:04. > :26:07.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:08. > :26:12.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:13. > :26:18.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:19. > :26:24.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:25. > :26:29.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:30. > :26:35.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:36. > :26:40.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:41. > :26:43.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:44. > :26:47.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:48. > :26:54.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:55. > :26:58.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:59. > :27:03.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:04. > :27:08.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:09. > :27:17.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:18. > :27:22.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:23. > :27:27.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:28. > :27:31.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:32. > :27:36.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:37. > :27:43.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:44. > :27:49.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:50. > :27:53.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:54. > :28:01.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:02. > :28:06.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:07. > :28:11.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:12. > :28:16.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:17. > :28:21.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:22. > :28:25.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:26. > :28:29.there will be English votes for English laws after the election?
:28:30. > :28:33.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:34. > :28:37.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:38. > :28:43.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:44. > :28:48.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:49. > :28:51.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:52. > :28:53.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:54. > :28:56.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:57. > :29:05.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:06. > :29:09.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:10. > :29:14.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:15. > :29:19.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:20. > :29:23.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:24. > :29:27.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:28. > :29:32.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:33. > :29:36.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:37. > :29:39.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:40. > :29:52.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:53. > :29:55.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:56. > :30:03.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:04. > :30:05.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:06. > :30:11.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:12. > :30:16.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:17. > :30:20.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:21. > :30:24.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:25. > :30:29.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:30. > :30:33.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:34. > :30:39.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:40. > :30:42.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:43. > :30:48.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:49. > :30:51.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:52. > :30:57.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:58. > :31:01.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:02. > :31:06.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:07. > :31:09.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:10. > :31:12.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:13. > :31:20.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:21. > :31:25.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:26. > :31:27.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:28. > :31:38.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:39. > :31:42.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:43. > :31:46.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:47. > :31:50.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:51. > :31:54.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:55. > :31:57.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:58. > :32:06.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:07. > :32:11.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:12. > :32:18.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:19. > :32:26.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:27. > :32:29.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:30. > :32:35.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:36. > :32:39.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:40. > :32:43.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:44. > :32:49.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:50. > :32:52.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:53. > :32:57.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:58. > :33:04.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:05. > :33:08.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:09. > :33:12.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:13. > :33:16.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:17. > :33:20.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:21. > :33:24.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:25. > :33:30.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:31. > :33:33.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:34. > :33:38.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:39. > :33:42.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:43. > :33:46.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:47. > :33:50.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:51. > :33:54.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:55. > :34:00.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:34:01. > :34:05.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:06. > :34:10.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:11. > :34:14.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:15. > :34:21.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:22. > :34:24.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:25. > :34:28.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:29. > :34:36.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:37. > :34:40.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:41. > :34:46.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:47. > :34:51.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:52. > :34:55.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:56. > :34:57.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:58. > :35:03.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:04. > :35:09.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:10. > :35:16.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:17. > :35:21.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:22. > :35:26.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't.
:35:27. > :35:31.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:32. > :35:35.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:36. > :35:39.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:40. > :35:45.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:46. > :35:48.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:49. > :35:55.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:56. > :35:59.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:36:00. > :36:05.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:06. > :36:09.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:10. > :36:16.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:17. > :36:22.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless, it
:36:23. > :36:27.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:28. > :36:33.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:34. > :36:37.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:38. > :36:44.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:45. > :36:48.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:49. > :36:54.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:55. > :36:58.of the legal advice at the time, and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:59. > :37:03.given to us by the Law officers. Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:04. > :37:07.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:08. > :37:12.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:13. > :37:16.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:17. > :37:26.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:27. > :37:29.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:30. > :37:30.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:31. > :37:32.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:33. > :37:37.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:38. > :00:44.minutes, The Week Ahead. Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:00:45. > :00:58.My thanks to you both. Andrew, back to you.
:00:59. > :01:06.Here we are back in Birmingham with the Conservatives. The Tories
:01:07. > :01:12.thought all they had to do was come here, have a rally, a jamboree, and
:01:13. > :01:17.off they go to the races, or in their case the general election. Two
:01:18. > :01:23.races later it hasn't quite worked out like that. Let's look at the
:01:24. > :01:29.state of this conference as it gets under way. On our panel we are
:01:30. > :01:34.joined by David Davis. You wrote an article in the Mail on Sunday this
:01:35. > :01:40.morning which was an Exocet at the heart of David Cameron's modernising
:01:41. > :01:47.strategy. It was designed to act as a lever. It was designed to cause
:01:48. > :01:51.trouble. No, we are in the running for the next general election. One
:01:52. > :01:55.of the characteristics of having a five year fixed term Parliaments is
:01:56. > :02:00.that the last year is about campaigning. It is important we beat
:02:01. > :02:06.Miliband, he would be a disastrous Prime Minister. You think the whole
:02:07. > :02:14.modernising strategy was a wrong turn, that is what the article said.
:02:15. > :02:34.Yes. Has that opened the door to UKIP? It has left a lot of people
:02:35. > :02:36.disillusioned with politics. What do you do to get it right? Who was
:02:37. > :03:11.listening to you? Frankly we need to take a more
:03:12. > :03:15.robust series of policies. How many more UKIP defections will there be?
:03:16. > :03:25.I do not think there will be any more. I would be very surprised. I
:03:26. > :03:29.know Nigel Farage has a brilliant sense of timing, but I do not think
:03:30. > :03:35.he has got the resources to do that, namely, another Tory MP. So it could
:03:36. > :03:40.be another Labour one, maybe? I think an awful lot will hinge on
:03:41. > :03:46.what happens in Rochester. Because that is not a slam dunk. Clack and
:03:47. > :03:58.unfortunately looks like it will be a walkover for them. But Rochester
:03:59. > :04:04.is a different scene. And so, there could be a kind of Newark situation.
:04:05. > :04:09.When I campaigned in Newark, two labour families I spoke to said they
:04:10. > :04:14.would vote Tory to keep UKIP out. How bad was the Labour conference
:04:15. > :04:19.last week? One politician said after he had a really bad performance that
:04:20. > :04:24.his television performance was suboptimal. I think that would be a
:04:25. > :04:28.good way of describing Ed Miliband's speech. The problem for
:04:29. > :04:31.Ed Miliband in memorising speeches is that we are not auditioning for a
:04:32. > :04:37.new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing for Prime Minister. He failed the
:04:38. > :04:40.Laurence Olivier test, and therefore failed the Prime Minister test. I
:04:41. > :04:43.think the real problem for him was forgetting to mention the deficit.
:04:44. > :04:49.He spoke from the heart about issues which she really cares about, the
:04:50. > :04:53.NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.
:04:54. > :04:56.Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like
:04:57. > :05:00.the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your
:05:01. > :05:08.messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am
:05:09. > :05:11.afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their
:05:12. > :05:16.time learning speeches off by heart. You could learn a Shakespeare
:05:17. > :05:21.play in the time it takes to learn 70 minutes of a leader's speech. I
:05:22. > :05:25.think we should just go back to sensible reading what you have
:05:26. > :05:29.written. You can then alter it just beforehand. A lot of things were
:05:30. > :05:33.changing, which is not surprising, but he did not have time to learn
:05:34. > :05:37.it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked once or twice, but that is enough
:05:38. > :05:40.for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories
:05:41. > :05:45.are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since
:05:46. > :05:51.the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is
:05:52. > :05:56.still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron
:05:57. > :06:00.is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time
:06:01. > :06:07.in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --
:06:08. > :06:13.sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top
:06:14. > :06:18.speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and
:06:19. > :06:21.Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in
:06:22. > :06:26.Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we
:06:27. > :06:30.will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George
:06:31. > :06:35.Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone
:06:36. > :06:42.away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is
:06:43. > :06:46.back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories
:06:47. > :06:51.languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last
:06:52. > :06:59.election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn
:07:00. > :07:04.of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point
:07:05. > :07:09.you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have
:07:10. > :07:13.had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,
:07:14. > :07:17.people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is
:07:18. > :07:25.not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to
:07:26. > :07:29.bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,
:07:30. > :07:34.and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it
:07:35. > :07:38.really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when
:07:39. > :07:43.you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking
:07:44. > :07:46.about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had
:07:47. > :07:50.broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said
:07:51. > :07:53.had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of
:07:54. > :07:57.bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which
:07:58. > :08:00.means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,
:08:01. > :08:05.which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they
:08:06. > :08:10.would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote
:08:11. > :08:15.tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been
:08:16. > :08:19.pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,
:08:20. > :08:23.which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big
:08:24. > :08:30.difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a
:08:31. > :08:36.lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of
:08:37. > :08:40.people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going
:08:41. > :08:46.out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that
:08:47. > :08:56.you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last
:08:57. > :09:05.week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not
:09:06. > :09:11.be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something
:09:12. > :09:15.incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25
:09:16. > :09:20.are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he
:09:21. > :09:25.is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up
:09:26. > :09:29.with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like
:09:30. > :09:34.that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not
:09:35. > :09:39.think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a
:09:40. > :09:41.moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where
:09:42. > :09:45.Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with
:09:46. > :09:49.business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of
:09:50. > :09:54.Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is
:09:55. > :10:02.that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.
:10:03. > :10:06.There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home
:10:07. > :10:11.straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices
:10:12. > :10:14.and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI
:10:15. > :10:19.think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my
:10:20. > :10:29.factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the
:10:30. > :10:33.truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,
:10:34. > :10:37.it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would
:10:38. > :10:41.say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:42. > :10:45.finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep
:10:46. > :10:50.trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed
:10:51. > :10:56.Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a
:10:57. > :11:00.vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never
:11:01. > :11:02.found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder
:11:03. > :11:14.whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I
:11:15. > :11:19.hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do
:11:20. > :11:25.actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to
:11:26. > :11:29.insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We
:11:30. > :11:32.have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you
:11:33. > :11:38.are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do
:11:39. > :11:40.the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven
:11:41. > :11:44.months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not
:11:45. > :11:49.that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership
:11:50. > :11:52.speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in
:11:53. > :12:05.with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below
:12:06. > :12:09.9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually
:12:10. > :12:12.talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.
:12:13. > :12:17.Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and
:12:18. > :12:22.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:23. > :12:30.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:31. > :12:36.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:37. > :12:39.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:40. > :12:44.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:45. > :12:48.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:49. > :12:53.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:54. > :12:59.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:13:00. > :13:02.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:03. > :13:06.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:07. > :13:12.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:13. > :13:15.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:16. > :13:24.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:25. > :13:29.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:30. > :13:34.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:35. > :13:40.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:41. > :13:43.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:44. > :13:49.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:50. > :13:53.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:54. > :13:58.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:59. > :14:06.that? Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye.