:00:37. > :00:43.There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next
:00:44. > :00:45.leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,
:00:46. > :00:52.This man might have something to say about that.
:00:53. > :00:55.Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.
:00:56. > :00:58.So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?
:00:59. > :01:03.The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane
:01:04. > :01:06.on the country's second city which has been in the hands of
:01:07. > :01:18.But what will be the fallout from this key clash?
:01:19. > :01:24.London this week, slum conditions in one of the richest cities in the
:01:25. > :01:25.world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the
:01:26. > :01:30.squalor? And with me - as always -
:01:31. > :01:33.the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,
:01:34. > :01:36.Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job
:01:37. > :01:46.a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then
:01:47. > :01:51.quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party
:01:52. > :01:57.is at "breaking point". This morning, the former
:01:58. > :02:03.Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be
:02:04. > :02:05.running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard
:02:06. > :02:11.about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps
:02:12. > :02:14.delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely
:02:15. > :02:17.sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have
:02:18. > :02:21.more than enough signatures on the nomination form already
:02:22. > :02:23.to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people
:02:24. > :02:27.signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged
:02:28. > :02:32.with letters in support. I would not be doing this
:02:33. > :02:36.if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members
:02:37. > :02:39.are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was
:02:40. > :02:47.Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him
:02:48. > :02:50.as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -
:02:51. > :03:03.Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm
:03:04. > :03:08.going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge
:03:09. > :03:12.support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the
:03:13. > :03:17.party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I
:03:18. > :03:23.want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not
:03:24. > :03:27.going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at
:03:28. > :03:37.the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to
:03:38. > :03:40.step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means
:03:41. > :03:42.it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history
:03:43. > :03:49.know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can
:03:50. > :03:54.disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What
:03:55. > :03:59.happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that
:04:00. > :04:03.we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions
:04:04. > :04:08.together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure
:04:09. > :04:12.and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand
:04:13. > :04:17.last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life
:04:18. > :04:21.travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than
:04:22. > :04:27.anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt
:04:28. > :04:32.that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next
:04:33. > :04:36.generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for
:04:37. > :04:40.someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party
:04:41. > :04:45.inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together. You
:04:46. > :04:51.told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take
:04:52. > :05:00.on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and
:05:01. > :05:04.friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis, and
:05:05. > :05:11.I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the
:05:12. > :05:17.open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is
:05:18. > :05:22.moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be
:05:23. > :05:27.better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate. I
:05:28. > :05:31.thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political
:05:32. > :05:35.parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.
:05:36. > :05:40.I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well
:05:41. > :05:47.with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party
:05:48. > :05:52.together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is
:05:53. > :05:57.supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able
:05:58. > :06:02.to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After
:06:03. > :06:06.November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the
:06:07. > :06:15.past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has
:06:16. > :06:17.before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some
:06:18. > :06:23.of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip
:06:24. > :06:28.these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not
:06:29. > :06:33.invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that
:06:34. > :06:39.will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit
:06:40. > :06:42.really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class
:06:43. > :06:47.communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe
:06:48. > :06:51.Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,
:06:52. > :06:56.would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in
:06:57. > :07:01.the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that
:07:02. > :07:05.mistake. There's working class communities right across the country
:07:06. > :07:17.is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just
:07:18. > :07:21.as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and
:07:22. > :07:23.southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into
:07:24. > :07:27.these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I
:07:28. > :07:32.intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a
:07:33. > :07:39.good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A
:07:40. > :07:44.bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have
:07:45. > :07:49.to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our
:07:50. > :07:53.branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've
:07:54. > :07:59.got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the
:08:00. > :08:04.only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel
:08:05. > :08:08.Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see
:08:09. > :08:12.what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom
:08:13. > :08:16.and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be
:08:17. > :08:23.compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't
:08:24. > :08:27.know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association
:08:28. > :08:32.with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?
:08:33. > :08:36.Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything
:08:37. > :08:42.about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed
:08:43. > :08:46.Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the
:08:47. > :08:52.American election, because I think the two candidates are quite
:08:53. > :08:56.appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of
:08:57. > :09:02.your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring
:09:03. > :09:08.that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.
:09:09. > :09:13.Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can
:09:14. > :09:17.move forward. If we don't unify, Ukip will not be around for much
:09:18. > :09:19.longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.
:09:20. > :09:22.We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's
:09:23. > :09:24.new leader will be - the winner will be announced
:09:25. > :09:34.Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between
:09:35. > :09:38.the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot
:09:39. > :09:45.stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to
:09:46. > :09:55.say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another
:09:56. > :10:05.candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British
:10:06. > :10:11.politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news
:10:12. > :10:17.for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?
:10:18. > :10:21.It is. I think the personality difference and presentational
:10:22. > :10:25.difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative
:10:26. > :10:29.county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would
:10:30. > :10:36.probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At
:10:37. > :10:49.the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily
:10:50. > :10:55.between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made
:10:56. > :10:58.inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they
:10:59. > :11:10.fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip
:11:11. > :11:16.have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at
:11:17. > :11:21.least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will
:11:22. > :11:25.happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the
:11:26. > :11:30.unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this
:11:31. > :11:35.morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no
:11:36. > :11:41.point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any
:11:42. > :11:46.longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes
:11:47. > :11:50.of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two
:11:51. > :11:55.years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who
:11:56. > :11:58.will sum that up the best. We shall see.
:11:59. > :12:01.In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq
:12:02. > :12:03.and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.
:12:04. > :12:05.Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',
:12:06. > :12:07.or an Islamic state, on the territories it
:12:08. > :12:16.This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters,
:12:17. > :12:22.Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault
:12:23. > :12:39.Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.
:12:40. > :12:44.They destroy it before it destroys them.
:12:45. > :12:47.These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,
:12:48. > :12:52.the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.
:12:53. > :12:56.Controlling the city of around 2 million people means
:12:57. > :13:00.that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.
:13:01. > :13:04.This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base
:13:05. > :13:08.you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency
:13:09. > :13:13.movement in the fabric of another society.
:13:14. > :13:16.It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq
:13:17. > :13:20.since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort
:13:21. > :13:26.Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.
:13:27. > :13:31.Heading to Mosul from the south, the elite troops of the Iraqi army.
:13:32. > :13:33.Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied
:13:34. > :13:39.From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,
:13:40. > :13:45.Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters
:13:46. > :13:48.who have been accused of human rights abuses.
:13:49. > :13:51.British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided
:13:52. > :13:58.in by British personnel on the ground.
:13:59. > :14:01.To the North West, a corridor has been left for some
:14:02. > :14:04.of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route
:14:05. > :14:07.which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.
:14:08. > :14:09.We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place
:14:10. > :14:12.in the outlying villages and there have been some
:14:13. > :14:15.successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.
:14:16. > :14:18.And the real question will be when the attackers get
:14:19. > :14:22.towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?
:14:23. > :14:29.It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.
:14:30. > :14:33.IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites
:14:34. > :14:35.in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.
:14:36. > :14:38.The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families
:14:39. > :14:40.have been rounded up as potential human shields.
:14:41. > :14:45.The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?
:14:46. > :14:47.The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,
:14:48. > :14:51.some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.
:14:52. > :14:54.They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.
:14:55. > :14:58.They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.
:14:59. > :15:03.The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia
:15:04. > :15:06.militias which have helped to liberate them.
:15:07. > :15:08.ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul
:15:09. > :15:13.If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle
:15:14. > :15:15.East went up in flames and was then carved up,
:15:16. > :15:19.it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.
:15:20. > :15:23.National identity has been cut across by other identities such
:15:24. > :15:34.And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again
:15:35. > :15:40.Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,
:15:41. > :15:43.almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,
:15:44. > :15:46.and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening
:15:47. > :15:49.elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.
:15:50. > :15:53.Big questions, questions that come after the battle.
:15:54. > :15:55.The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.
:15:56. > :16:05.I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.
:16:06. > :16:07.In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two
:16:08. > :16:15.provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.
:16:16. > :16:25.Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces
:16:26. > :16:34.of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain
:16:35. > :16:38.and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we
:16:39. > :16:42.don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure
:16:43. > :16:53.is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few
:16:54. > :16:55.thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly
:16:56. > :17:02.likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the
:17:03. > :17:11.Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they
:17:12. > :17:16.took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to
:17:17. > :17:19.create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi
:17:20. > :17:25.Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.
:17:26. > :17:29.Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental
:17:30. > :17:32.blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is
:17:33. > :17:39.what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that
:17:40. > :17:43.will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary
:17:44. > :17:47.Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi
:17:48. > :17:51.forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of
:17:52. > :17:58.Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which
:17:59. > :18:03.is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we
:18:04. > :18:10.want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.
:18:11. > :18:13.Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the
:18:14. > :18:19.border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of
:18:20. > :18:23.that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the
:18:24. > :18:31.coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is
:18:32. > :18:35.likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street
:18:36. > :18:40.to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we
:18:41. > :18:45.doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is
:18:46. > :18:49.very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone
:18:50. > :18:59.into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps
:19:00. > :19:05.around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40
:19:06. > :19:09.million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms
:19:10. > :19:16.of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response
:19:17. > :19:19.budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we
:19:20. > :19:24.are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is
:19:25. > :19:27.that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this
:19:28. > :19:34.assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You
:19:35. > :19:37.are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning
:19:38. > :19:43.since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --
:19:44. > :19:47.planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the
:19:48. > :19:50.appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we
:19:51. > :19:55.need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in
:19:56. > :19:58.place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is
:19:59. > :20:02.continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.
:20:03. > :20:06.The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big
:20:07. > :20:12.exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist
:20:13. > :20:16.magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a
:20:17. > :20:20.unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it
:20:21. > :20:23.could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out
:20:24. > :20:28.of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is
:20:29. > :20:32.very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and
:20:33. > :20:36.keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring
:20:37. > :20:40.them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been
:20:41. > :20:44.working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we
:20:45. > :20:50.have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have
:20:51. > :20:53.worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their
:20:54. > :20:57.structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have
:20:58. > :21:02.done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the
:21:03. > :21:08.British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming
:21:09. > :21:13.that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt
:21:14. > :21:19.with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be
:21:20. > :21:25.crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need
:21:26. > :21:30.to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as
:21:31. > :21:34.bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by
:21:35. > :21:40.the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is
:21:41. > :21:43.that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they
:21:44. > :21:49.have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is
:21:50. > :21:54.stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making
:21:55. > :21:59.sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is
:22:00. > :22:04.making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's
:22:05. > :22:09.response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that
:22:10. > :22:14.is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the
:22:15. > :22:18.front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to
:22:19. > :22:22.make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that
:22:23. > :22:29.population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing
:22:30. > :22:34.territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we
:22:35. > :22:39.think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part
:22:40. > :22:44.of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult
:22:45. > :22:49.across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United
:22:50. > :22:56.Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real
:22:57. > :22:59.danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last
:23:00. > :23:05.five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop
:23:06. > :23:10.often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been
:23:11. > :23:15.largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it
:23:16. > :23:18.went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it
:23:19. > :23:22.holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it
:23:23. > :23:26.gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else
:23:27. > :23:30.and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They
:23:31. > :23:36.say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a
:23:37. > :23:39.big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we
:23:40. > :23:50.keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --
:23:51. > :23:54.safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in
:23:55. > :24:01.Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen
:24:02. > :24:04.in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the
:24:05. > :24:07.conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much
:24:08. > :24:12.energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the
:24:13. > :24:16.humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want
:24:17. > :24:19.to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to
:24:20. > :24:23.make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking
:24:24. > :24:26.after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they
:24:27. > :24:33.have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why
:24:34. > :24:36.our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals
:24:37. > :24:43.with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.
:24:44. > :24:50.I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.
:24:51. > :25:02.Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We
:25:03. > :25:07.fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important
:25:08. > :25:12.move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the
:25:13. > :25:16.government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State
:25:17. > :25:21.this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF
:25:22. > :25:26.pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces
:25:27. > :25:30.on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if
:25:31. > :25:37.you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your
:25:38. > :25:39.leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.
:25:40. > :25:42.What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi
:25:43. > :25:44.government, and currently supported by the British government.
:25:45. > :25:46.I did not support it when it came up.
:25:47. > :25:49.Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most
:25:50. > :25:53.of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we
:25:54. > :26:02.He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been
:26:03. > :26:06.very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have
:26:07. > :26:10.learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt
:26:11. > :26:15.sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the
:26:16. > :26:20.aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was
:26:21. > :26:28.from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told
:26:29. > :26:32.the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air
:26:33. > :26:36.strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in
:26:37. > :26:39.Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face
:26:40. > :26:43.the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.
:26:44. > :26:51.We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it
:26:52. > :26:56.is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic
:26:57. > :27:00.State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is
:27:01. > :27:05.he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the
:27:06. > :27:09.past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,
:27:10. > :27:12.both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also
:27:13. > :27:18.in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you
:27:19. > :27:22.mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress
:27:23. > :27:28.with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do
:27:29. > :27:39.you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to
:27:40. > :27:48.read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the
:27:49. > :27:56.car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems
:27:57. > :28:00.they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to
:28:01. > :28:04.pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have
:28:05. > :28:09.become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer
:28:10. > :28:15.interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to
:28:16. > :28:19.the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that
:28:20. > :28:22.is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies
:28:23. > :28:26.and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken
:28:27. > :28:30.democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference
:28:31. > :28:38.and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy
:28:39. > :28:41.Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,
:28:42. > :28:45.but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the
:28:46. > :28:51.international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very
:28:52. > :28:56.clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the
:28:57. > :29:01.next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of
:29:02. > :29:04.Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a
:29:05. > :29:08.very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are
:29:09. > :29:16.reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't
:29:17. > :29:19.change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues
:29:20. > :29:26.related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't
:29:27. > :29:31.change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to
:29:32. > :29:35.Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It
:29:36. > :29:37.is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato
:29:38. > :29:42.allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not
:29:43. > :29:46.let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the
:29:47. > :29:51.way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be
:29:52. > :29:55.taking them to international court over this, but we should also be
:29:56. > :30:01.strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do
:30:02. > :30:05.that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to
:30:06. > :30:10.participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop
:30:11. > :30:16.individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look
:30:17. > :30:21.at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.
:30:22. > :30:24.Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.
:30:25. > :30:27.The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest
:30:28. > :30:30.bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.
:30:31. > :30:33.This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,
:30:34. > :30:38.sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.
:30:39. > :30:40.Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end
:30:41. > :30:43.of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation
:30:44. > :30:48.for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.
:30:49. > :30:52.In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -
:30:53. > :30:57.following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy
:30:58. > :31:00.clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.
:31:01. > :31:03.Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured
:31:04. > :31:06.since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,
:31:07. > :31:14.This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement
:31:15. > :31:17.in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening
:31:18. > :31:20.atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.
:31:21. > :31:24.But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,
:31:25. > :31:27.with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,
:31:28. > :31:30.President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian
:31:31. > :31:39.I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,
:31:40. > :31:46.Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.
:31:47. > :31:54.Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this
:31:55. > :32:02.satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the
:32:03. > :32:07.biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge
:32:08. > :32:11.cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea
:32:12. > :32:16.of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been
:32:17. > :32:24.divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about
:32:25. > :32:27.eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They
:32:28. > :32:35.are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part
:32:36. > :32:40.falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and
:32:41. > :32:47.the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of
:32:48. > :32:53.that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in
:32:54. > :32:58.grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all
:32:59. > :33:03.civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised
:33:04. > :33:07.it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the
:33:08. > :33:12.rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it
:33:13. > :33:16.being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of
:33:17. > :33:21.them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't
:33:22. > :33:26.like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to
:33:27. > :33:31.take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's
:33:32. > :33:35.not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved. We
:33:36. > :33:38.have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian
:33:39. > :33:48.casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't
:33:49. > :33:51.the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air
:33:52. > :33:54.force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern
:33:55. > :34:02.Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to
:34:03. > :34:08.the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try
:34:09. > :34:12.and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great
:34:13. > :34:17.visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped
:34:18. > :34:24.out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall, it
:34:25. > :34:29.would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian
:34:30. > :34:33.allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if
:34:34. > :34:38.Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his
:34:39. > :34:44.UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put
:34:45. > :34:49.President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend
:34:50. > :34:54.that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in
:34:55. > :34:59.between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.
:35:00. > :35:07.They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to
:35:08. > :35:16.have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving
:35:17. > :35:20.aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to
:35:21. > :35:26.have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big
:35:27. > :35:31.naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West
:35:32. > :35:38.is being distracted and divided. Europe and America, by elections and
:35:39. > :35:43.so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about
:35:44. > :35:48.that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his
:35:49. > :35:56.maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do
:35:57. > :36:05.take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr
:36:06. > :36:10.Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere
:36:11. > :36:14.of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want
:36:15. > :36:19.the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not
:36:20. > :36:24.just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as
:36:25. > :36:29.important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended
:36:30. > :36:35.fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its
:36:36. > :36:41.message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the
:36:42. > :36:44.West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after
:36:45. > :36:48.the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is
:36:49. > :36:55.strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy. It
:36:56. > :37:01.is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price
:37:02. > :37:05.of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to
:37:06. > :37:10.fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how
:37:11. > :37:17.small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It
:37:18. > :37:25.is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years
:37:26. > :37:31.ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?
:37:32. > :37:37.A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a
:37:38. > :37:42.price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting
:37:43. > :37:48.the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which
:37:49. > :37:53.is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and
:37:54. > :38:00.dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.
:38:01. > :38:04.But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are
:38:05. > :38:09.supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,
:38:10. > :38:13.because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for
:38:14. > :38:16.the Russian people. Thank you very much.
:38:17. > :38:19.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:20. > :01:19.for Sunday Politics Scotland. go ahead with this policy, I know.
:01:20. > :01:28.And now back to Andrew. So, Brexit, airports,
:01:29. > :01:50.Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying
:01:51. > :01:54.there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq
:01:55. > :02:01.now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control
:02:02. > :02:10.a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small
:02:11. > :02:13.area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more
:02:14. > :02:18.dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the
:02:19. > :02:23.Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very
:02:24. > :02:27.interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,
:02:28. > :02:35.and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is
:02:36. > :02:38.about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan. You
:02:39. > :02:48.smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to
:02:49. > :02:59.warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in
:03:00. > :03:04.Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean
:03:05. > :03:08.into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,
:03:09. > :03:16.we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right
:03:17. > :03:21.for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions
:03:22. > :03:25.here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as
:03:26. > :03:29.we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages
:03:30. > :03:36.here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at
:03:37. > :03:44.least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical
:03:45. > :03:50.Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the
:03:51. > :03:58.Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so
:03:59. > :04:02.that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even
:04:03. > :04:07.if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that
:04:08. > :04:12.interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory
:04:13. > :04:17.said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some
:04:18. > :04:21.of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of
:04:22. > :04:26.the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour
:04:27. > :04:31.office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm
:04:32. > :04:35.not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get
:04:36. > :04:40.out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She
:04:41. > :04:46.sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should
:04:47. > :04:51.answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we
:04:52. > :04:55.saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be
:04:56. > :04:59.the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the
:05:00. > :05:03.Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give
:05:04. > :05:06.testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.
:05:07. > :05:09.I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that
:05:10. > :05:12.if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 50
:05:13. > :05:15.to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading
:05:16. > :05:16.relationship, market access, including for services,
:05:17. > :05:18.80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,
:05:19. > :05:22.that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek
:05:23. > :05:28.a transitional arrangement with the European Union.
:05:29. > :05:36.If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,
:05:37. > :05:42.would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall
:05:43. > :05:46.back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My
:05:47. > :05:50.understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically
:05:51. > :05:54.include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU
:05:55. > :05:59.would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,
:06:00. > :06:05.and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal
:06:06. > :06:15.negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal
:06:16. > :06:18.negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover
:06:19. > :06:20.it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with
:06:21. > :06:28.Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because
:06:29. > :06:38.of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a
:06:39. > :06:40.free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic
:06:41. > :06:45.Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would
:06:46. > :06:49.be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field
:06:50. > :06:54.agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not
:06:55. > :06:59.be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we
:07:00. > :07:08.are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?
:07:09. > :07:11.It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls
:07:12. > :07:15.is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in
:07:16. > :07:19.public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually
:07:20. > :07:24.trade, the economy, the single market is more important than
:07:25. > :07:29.immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,
:07:30. > :07:33.that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a
:07:34. > :07:38.significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that
:07:39. > :07:49.the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,
:07:50. > :07:51.we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying.
:07:52. > :07:59.Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.
:08:00. > :08:03.Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade
:08:04. > :08:08.agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada, and
:08:09. > :08:12.therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any
:08:13. > :08:17.deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The
:08:18. > :08:24.question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to
:08:25. > :08:26.the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another
:08:27. > :08:33.unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get
:08:34. > :08:37.this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks
:08:38. > :08:45.and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one
:08:46. > :08:54.gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,
:08:55. > :09:01.including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority
:09:02. > :09:04.of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the
:09:05. > :09:08.transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear
:09:09. > :09:13.Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all
:09:14. > :09:18.over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered
:09:19. > :09:26.about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are
:09:27. > :09:30.talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a
:09:31. > :09:35.trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they
:09:36. > :09:41.are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and
:09:42. > :09:45.stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't
:09:46. > :09:49.always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in
:09:50. > :09:55.tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will
:09:56. > :09:58.see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very
:09:59. > :10:04.badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something
:10:05. > :10:08.like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the
:10:09. > :10:11.Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people
:10:12. > :10:19.traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have
:10:20. > :10:24.vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have
:10:25. > :10:30.been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know
:10:31. > :10:34.how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over
:10:35. > :10:41.what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem
:10:42. > :10:47.for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to
:10:48. > :10:51.survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three
:10:52. > :10:55.months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They
:10:56. > :11:03.didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go. It
:11:04. > :11:09.needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because
:11:10. > :11:13.the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but
:11:14. > :11:18.I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until
:11:19. > :11:22.the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When
:11:23. > :11:26.you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion
:11:27. > :11:30.being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early
:11:31. > :11:35.election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she
:11:36. > :11:43.can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to
:11:44. > :11:46.be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just
:11:47. > :11:50.a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough
:11:51. > :11:56.time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the
:11:57. > :12:01.single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a
:12:02. > :12:06.general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the
:12:07. > :12:16.same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate
:12:17. > :12:18.that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will
:12:19. > :12:22.split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get
:12:23. > :12:26.Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a
:12:27. > :12:32.good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow
:12:33. > :12:35.Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.
:12:36. > :12:47.There he is. Where is the hand? That is the
:12:48. > :12:55.worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair
:12:56. > :13:00.of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man
:13:01. > :13:08.most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular
:13:09. > :13:14.culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,
:13:15. > :13:21.bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you
:13:22. > :13:24.don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get
:13:25. > :13:26.it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back
:13:27. > :13:29.with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next
:13:30. > :13:32.Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:33. > :14:06.it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these
:14:07. > :14:08.amazing lives, You're like a...
:14:09. > :14:20.Different person?