:00:39. > :00:42.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:47.Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?
:00:48. > :00:51.After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.
:00:52. > :00:56.Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency
:00:57. > :01:01.The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.
:01:02. > :01:04.Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms
:01:05. > :01:08.of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?
:01:09. > :01:11.Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet
:01:12. > :01:16.minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.
:01:17. > :01:19.In London this week, how did the capital fare
:01:20. > :01:37.And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:38. > :01:40.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:41. > :01:46.Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news
:01:47. > :01:49.of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came
:01:50. > :01:52.to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.
:01:53. > :01:58.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader
:01:59. > :02:01.as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked
:02:02. > :02:05.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social
:02:06. > :02:07.justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"
:02:08. > :02:12.President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader
:02:13. > :02:15.as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death
:02:16. > :02:18.would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people
:02:19. > :02:23.finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".
:02:24. > :02:25.Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,
:02:26. > :02:28.Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader
:02:29. > :02:30.was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged
:02:31. > :02:46.I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the
:02:47. > :02:50.reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I
:02:51. > :02:58.noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to
:02:59. > :03:02.Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he
:03:03. > :03:06.was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,
:03:07. > :03:09.agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many
:03:10. > :03:13.people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been
:03:14. > :03:18.inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream
:03:19. > :03:21.consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this
:03:22. > :03:27.respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would
:03:28. > :03:33.be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.
:03:34. > :03:36.Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have
:03:37. > :03:42.looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection
:03:43. > :03:46.for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error
:03:47. > :03:50.dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?
:03:51. > :03:57.He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He
:03:58. > :04:00.wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually
:04:01. > :04:03.look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other
:04:04. > :04:10.countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a
:04:11. > :04:13.champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been
:04:14. > :04:20.utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have
:04:21. > :04:24.thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic
:04:25. > :04:30.failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when
:04:31. > :04:35.Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the
:04:36. > :04:42.debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any
:04:43. > :04:54.criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There
:04:55. > :04:57.were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would
:04:58. > :05:06.have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban
:05:07. > :05:10.solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It
:05:11. > :05:14.existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,
:05:15. > :05:19.who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday
:05:20. > :05:24.saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the
:05:25. > :05:29.world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He
:05:30. > :05:36.never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks
:05:37. > :05:43.ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The
:05:44. > :05:50.lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated
:05:51. > :05:56.stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was
:05:57. > :06:03.working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there
:06:04. > :06:07.will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet
:06:08. > :06:13.and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say
:06:14. > :06:29.it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism
:06:30. > :06:36.that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime
:06:37. > :06:42.Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to
:06:43. > :06:47.open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing
:06:48. > :06:50.brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.
:06:51. > :06:57.When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying
:06:58. > :07:02.the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as
:07:03. > :07:06.all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a
:07:07. > :07:11.leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either
:07:12. > :07:17.decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it
:07:18. > :07:21.was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure
:07:22. > :07:26.worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.
:07:27. > :07:29.There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they
:07:30. > :07:37.sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris
:07:38. > :07:44.Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to
:07:45. > :07:48.deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.
:07:49. > :07:57.And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr
:07:58. > :08:00.Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.
:08:01. > :08:01.That was what made it so fascinating.
:08:02. > :08:05.Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS
:08:06. > :08:08.in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020
:08:09. > :08:11.on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth
:08:12. > :08:18.Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling
:08:19. > :08:21."Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,
:08:22. > :08:28.but some of the proposals are already running into local
:08:29. > :08:31.opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.
:08:32. > :08:37.Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.
:08:38. > :08:40.But east of England ambulance call operators
:08:41. > :08:44.they're sending an early intervention vehicle
:08:45. > :08:52.with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.
:08:53. > :08:54.It's being piloted here for over 65s with
:08:55. > :08:59.When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be
:09:00. > :09:02.treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.
:09:03. > :09:05.Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,
:09:06. > :09:07.taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,
:09:08. > :09:14.So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided
:09:15. > :09:27.The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able
:09:28. > :09:29.to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,
:09:30. > :09:31.to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand
:09:32. > :09:34.where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how
:09:35. > :09:39.best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems
:09:40. > :09:41.that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.
:09:42. > :09:44.This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how
:09:45. > :09:51.You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.
:09:52. > :09:57.The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.
:09:58. > :09:59.What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.
:10:00. > :10:02.Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went
:10:03. > :10:05.through after broad public and political consultation
:10:06. > :10:09.with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.
:10:10. > :10:12.It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS
:10:13. > :10:19.trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.
:10:20. > :10:22.It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide
:10:23. > :10:28.The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS
:10:29. > :10:35.in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion
:10:36. > :10:37.worth of efficiencies across the country.
:10:38. > :10:39.In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health
:10:40. > :10:42.and care partnerships, and each one will provide
:10:43. > :10:46.a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,
:10:47. > :10:50.provide better services and save money.
:10:51. > :10:54.So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people
:10:55. > :10:56.in the health service and local government,
:10:57. > :11:03.The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending
:11:04. > :11:07.growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.
:11:08. > :11:13.STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way
:11:14. > :11:19.But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number
:11:20. > :11:24.of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle
:11:25. > :11:28.ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed
:11:29. > :11:32.This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his
:11:33. > :11:40.I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close
:11:41. > :11:44.all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out
:11:45. > :11:46.of the acute sector who are elderly and looking
:11:47. > :11:49.That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,
:11:50. > :11:58.All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,
:11:59. > :12:03.But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.
:12:04. > :12:06.The Government's sustainability and transformation plans
:12:07. > :12:11.for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.
:12:12. > :12:14.The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings
:12:15. > :12:19.within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.
:12:20. > :12:23.There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.
:12:24. > :12:26.Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week
:12:27. > :12:30.about the importance of community hospitals in general,
:12:31. > :12:36.These are proposals out to consultation.
:12:37. > :12:41.What could happen if these plans get blocked?
:12:42. > :12:45.If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come
:12:46. > :12:50.to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned
:12:51. > :12:51.deterioration and services becoming unstable and service
:12:52. > :12:58.The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement
:12:59. > :13:05.but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs
:13:06. > :13:07.are in the interests of local people.
:13:08. > :13:09.Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England
:13:10. > :13:11.to push through these controversial regional plans,
:13:12. > :13:17.which will soon face public scrutiny.
:13:18. > :13:22.We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,
:13:23. > :13:26.I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,
:13:27. > :13:43.Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of
:13:44. > :13:46.efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of
:13:47. > :13:51.independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22
:13:52. > :13:55.billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you
:13:56. > :13:59.drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have
:14:00. > :14:02.been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that
:14:03. > :14:06.some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community
:14:07. > :14:10.pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000
:14:11. > :14:14.pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and
:14:15. > :14:19.GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,
:14:20. > :14:27.which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a
:14:28. > :14:33.local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these
:14:34. > :14:36.efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from
:14:37. > :14:43.Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve
:14:44. > :14:50.health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable
:14:51. > :14:53.transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical
:14:54. > :14:57.health, mental health and social care, for those services to
:14:58. > :15:00.collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented
:15:01. > :15:07.system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground
:15:08. > :15:11.has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,
:15:12. > :15:15.the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By
:15:16. > :15:19.2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to
:15:20. > :15:25.redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the
:15:26. > :15:28.money in. So of course, getting these services working better
:15:29. > :15:31.together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would
:15:32. > :15:37.have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the
:15:38. > :15:42.last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is
:15:43. > :15:48.an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?
:15:49. > :15:56.Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22
:15:57. > :16:01.billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.
:16:02. > :16:06.But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they
:16:07. > :16:11.said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have
:16:12. > :16:16.changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by
:16:17. > :16:23.2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by
:16:24. > :16:26.20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually
:16:27. > :16:31.transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the
:16:32. > :16:35.commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been
:16:36. > :16:40.cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year
:16:41. > :16:43.project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the
:16:44. > :16:49.Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week
:16:50. > :16:56.there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the
:16:57. > :17:01.efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by
:17:02. > :17:06.2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now
:17:07. > :17:09.for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with
:17:10. > :17:15.everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers
:17:16. > :17:22.and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I
:17:23. > :17:28.had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they
:17:29. > :17:32.expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by
:17:33. > :17:38.now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?
:17:39. > :17:42.To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The
:17:43. > :17:49.budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like
:17:50. > :18:01.co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a
:18:02. > :18:07.plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in
:18:08. > :18:11.2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is
:18:12. > :18:16.committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently
:18:17. > :18:22.John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are
:18:23. > :18:26.talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current
:18:27. > :18:30.spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the
:18:31. > :18:37.money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If
:18:38. > :18:48.you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from
:18:49. > :18:52.the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?
:18:53. > :19:01.That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for
:19:02. > :19:05.Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to
:19:06. > :19:09.give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the
:19:10. > :19:14.Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do
:19:15. > :19:18.it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give
:19:19. > :19:21.the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like
:19:22. > :19:25.any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what
:19:26. > :19:32.the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.
:19:33. > :19:35.I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election
:19:36. > :19:37.with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has
:19:38. > :19:43.been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.
:19:44. > :19:48.You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not
:19:49. > :19:53.a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment
:19:54. > :19:57.to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting
:19:58. > :20:02.a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about
:20:03. > :20:07.4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that
:20:08. > :20:10.substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have
:20:11. > :20:19.access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to
:20:20. > :20:23.be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap
:20:24. > :20:29.in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what
:20:30. > :20:34.this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an
:20:35. > :20:40.efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we
:20:41. > :20:44.agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see
:20:45. > :20:51.productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through
:20:52. > :20:58.investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.
:20:59. > :21:05.One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They
:21:06. > :21:09.are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe
:21:10. > :21:12.that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that
:21:13. > :21:16.contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking
:21:17. > :21:23.about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30
:21:24. > :21:29.billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend
:21:30. > :21:33.more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper
:21:34. > :21:37.care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40
:21:38. > :21:42.billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the
:21:43. > :21:46.account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that
:21:47. > :21:50.and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with
:21:51. > :21:54.that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we
:21:55. > :21:58.are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the
:21:59. > :22:06.investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.
:22:07. > :22:11.The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in
:22:12. > :22:15.A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in
:22:16. > :22:19.hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save
:22:20. > :22:22.the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the
:22:23. > :22:26.Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What
:22:27. > :22:30.I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your
:22:31. > :22:35.reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi
:22:36. > :22:41.Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger
:22:42. > :22:48.of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree
:22:49. > :22:54.with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a
:22:55. > :22:58.result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just
:22:59. > :23:03.going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of
:23:04. > :23:07.these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see
:23:08. > :23:11.if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they
:23:12. > :23:13.have the support of local authorities because they now have a
:23:14. > :23:18.role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the
:23:19. > :23:22.right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.
:23:23. > :23:25.We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they
:23:26. > :23:31.don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,
:23:32. > :23:35.you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with
:23:36. > :23:41.finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are
:23:42. > :23:47.cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like
:23:48. > :23:51.5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector
:23:52. > :23:55.in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long
:23:56. > :24:01.term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very
:24:02. > :24:04.sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the
:24:05. > :24:09.sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,
:24:10. > :24:15.which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy
:24:16. > :24:21.nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of
:24:22. > :24:26.the other countries, European countries included, we need to put
:24:27. > :24:31.up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the
:24:32. > :24:37.Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me
:24:38. > :24:41.down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up
:24:42. > :24:45.with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European
:24:46. > :24:49.average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,
:24:50. > :24:55.but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need
:24:56. > :24:57.substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was
:24:58. > :25:02.extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the
:25:03. > :25:07.Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,
:25:08. > :25:11.whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to
:25:12. > :25:14.us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.
:25:15. > :25:16.Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations
:25:17. > :25:19.before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait
:25:20. > :25:21.for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote
:25:22. > :25:25.If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats
:25:26. > :25:27.and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU
:25:28. > :25:29.referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before
:25:30. > :25:33.And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested
:25:34. > :25:36.that the referendum result could be reversed.
:25:37. > :25:39.In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,
:25:40. > :25:42.Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,
:25:43. > :25:45.having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis
:25:46. > :25:51.John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting
:25:52. > :25:54.of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit
:25:55. > :25:56.were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".
:25:57. > :25:58.He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"
:25:59. > :26:02.That prompted the former Conservative leader
:26:03. > :26:05.Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.
:26:06. > :26:08.He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply
:26:09. > :26:10.because they disagree with the original result does
:26:11. > :26:15.seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."
:26:16. > :26:18.So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms
:26:19. > :26:23.of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?
:26:24. > :26:26.Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect
:26:27. > :26:29.the will of the people and that means they must have their say
:26:30. > :26:33.in a referendum on the terms of the deal."
:26:34. > :26:36.But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support
:26:37. > :26:42.One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.
:26:43. > :26:45.He backs the idea of a second referendum.
:26:46. > :26:48.But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,
:26:49. > :26:51."Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting
:26:52. > :26:59.To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum
:27:00. > :27:02.on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two
:27:03. > :27:05.In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,
:27:06. > :27:07.and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister
:27:08. > :27:19.Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have
:27:20. > :27:24.spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or
:27:25. > :27:31.you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the
:27:32. > :27:35.referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I
:27:36. > :27:39.said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we
:27:40. > :27:46.will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but
:27:47. > :27:52.we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the
:27:53. > :28:00.British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would
:28:01. > :28:04.then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's
:28:05. > :28:08.lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,
:28:09. > :28:12.you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on
:28:13. > :28:21.immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many
:28:22. > :28:26.fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be
:28:27. > :28:31.a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many
:28:32. > :28:36.occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different
:28:37. > :28:40.thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be
:28:41. > :28:43.true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the
:28:44. > :28:48.destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about
:28:49. > :28:53.the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be
:28:54. > :28:57.appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft
:28:58. > :29:01.Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more
:29:02. > :29:08.difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign
:29:09. > :29:12.but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on
:29:13. > :29:16.the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on
:29:17. > :29:19.what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and
:29:20. > :29:27.putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous
:29:28. > :29:31.idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an
:29:32. > :29:36.impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make
:29:37. > :29:41.sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard
:29:42. > :29:45.Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum
:29:46. > :29:50.campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means
:29:51. > :29:54.making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected
:29:55. > :29:58.politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting
:29:59. > :30:02.control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was
:30:03. > :30:08.clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million
:30:09. > :30:13.votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more
:30:14. > :30:18.than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14
:30:19. > :30:22.million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very
:30:23. > :30:27.clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we
:30:28. > :30:30.going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to
:30:31. > :30:33.trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better
:30:34. > :30:43.place. OK, I need to get a debate going.
:30:44. > :30:46.Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was
:30:47. > :30:49.going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a
:30:50. > :30:51.second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the
:30:52. > :30:56.worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a
:30:57. > :31:00.ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could
:31:01. > :31:03.go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the
:31:04. > :31:07.European Union is less important than the opinion of the British
:31:08. > :31:12.people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me
:31:13. > :31:18.precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain
:31:19. > :31:21.voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson
:31:22. > :31:26.and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the
:31:27. > :31:29.range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.
:31:30. > :31:33.There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,
:31:34. > :31:38.getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,
:31:39. > :31:46.this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.
:31:47. > :31:53.The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our
:31:54. > :31:56.laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of
:31:57. > :32:03.what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would
:32:04. > :32:08.be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the
:32:09. > :32:12.hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The
:32:13. > :32:19.biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British
:32:20. > :32:22.history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally
:32:23. > :32:28.proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a
:32:29. > :32:34.strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks
:32:35. > :32:45.like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.
:32:46. > :32:52.He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct
:32:53. > :32:57.possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a
:32:58. > :33:01.second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on
:33:02. > :33:05.ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British
:33:06. > :33:12.people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and
:33:13. > :33:21.keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to
:33:22. > :33:24.that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying
:33:25. > :33:35.attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have
:33:36. > :33:38.to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said
:33:39. > :33:44.that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,
:33:45. > :33:48.they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European
:33:49. > :33:54.Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the
:33:55. > :34:06.process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why
:34:07. > :34:09.Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to
:34:10. > :34:18.ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote
:34:19. > :34:29.by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it
:34:30. > :34:34.best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would
:34:35. > :34:39.have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because
:34:40. > :34:47.I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.
:34:48. > :34:53.Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The
:34:54. > :34:58.central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a
:34:59. > :35:03.destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if
:35:04. > :35:08.it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be
:35:09. > :35:11.undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on
:35:12. > :35:15.the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain
:35:16. > :35:21.members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs
:35:22. > :35:26.union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude
:35:27. > :35:29.towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the
:35:30. > :35:32.government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have
:35:33. > :35:38.no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental
:35:39. > :35:45.case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a
:35:46. > :35:52.clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment
:35:53. > :35:55.figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do
:35:56. > :36:02.to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not
:36:03. > :36:06.delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,
:36:07. > :36:11.wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people
:36:12. > :36:16.who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it
:36:17. > :36:20.will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the
:36:21. > :36:28.whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is
:36:29. > :36:32.very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the
:36:33. > :36:40.answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and
:36:41. > :36:47.French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it
:36:48. > :36:51.not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it
:36:52. > :36:54.would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I
:36:55. > :36:57.think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't
:36:58. > :37:01.been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in
:37:02. > :37:04.Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.
:37:05. > :37:09.They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic
:37:10. > :37:13.process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen
:37:14. > :37:21.suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the
:37:22. > :37:25.government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to
:37:26. > :37:34.listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,
:37:35. > :37:39.as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second
:37:40. > :37:42.referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it
:37:43. > :37:50.there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have
:37:51. > :37:53.eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!
:37:54. > :37:55.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:56. > :00:59.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:01:00. > :01:02.We say goodbye to viewers have got to make sure London is
:01:03. > :01:08.open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you.
:01:09. > :01:10.Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay?
:01:11. > :01:14.Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader?
:01:15. > :01:19.And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond?
:01:20. > :01:44.So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get
:01:45. > :01:46.compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders
:01:47. > :01:50.real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is
:01:51. > :01:59.pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in
:02:00. > :02:03.2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party
:02:04. > :02:06.probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and
:02:07. > :02:11.2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is
:02:12. > :02:13.very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that
:02:14. > :02:20.unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just
:02:21. > :02:24.about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast
:02:25. > :02:29.wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things
:02:30. > :02:33.will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has
:02:34. > :02:37.already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to
:02:38. > :02:44.go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed
:02:45. > :02:48.to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board
:02:49. > :02:55.if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have
:02:56. > :03:00.workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have
:03:01. > :03:04.no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over
:03:05. > :03:08.the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and
:03:09. > :03:14.that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the
:03:15. > :03:19.end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the
:03:20. > :03:25.possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with
:03:26. > :03:31.Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the
:03:32. > :03:34.banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time
:03:35. > :03:40.to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of
:03:41. > :03:43.an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly
:03:44. > :03:48.cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition
:03:49. > :03:55.within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing
:03:56. > :03:58.this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne
:03:59. > :04:01.commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar
:04:02. > :04:06.proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to
:04:07. > :04:11.enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again
:04:12. > :04:16.in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by
:04:17. > :04:20.what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely
:04:21. > :04:23.bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious.
:04:24. > :04:30.Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of
:04:31. > :04:34.her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I
:04:35. > :04:37.think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time
:04:38. > :04:43.for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether
:04:44. > :04:45.we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing
:04:46. > :04:50.quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can
:04:51. > :04:54.control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a
:04:55. > :04:57.hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the
:04:58. > :05:02.company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives?
:05:03. > :05:05.Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business
:05:06. > :05:10.leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down
:05:11. > :05:14.to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether
:05:15. > :05:20.there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never
:05:21. > :05:25.happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is
:05:26. > :05:29.a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is
:05:30. > :05:31.not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to
:05:32. > :05:40.determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral
:05:41. > :05:46.argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers
:05:47. > :05:49.will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies
:05:50. > :05:53.are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are
:05:54. > :06:01.thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive
:06:02. > :06:06.investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making
:06:07. > :06:13.these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated
:06:14. > :06:17.by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue
:06:18. > :06:26.of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip.
:06:27. > :06:30.I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three
:06:31. > :06:36.candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid
:06:37. > :06:42.Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is
:06:43. > :06:46.widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the
:06:47. > :06:49.Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective
:06:50. > :06:55.communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will
:06:56. > :07:00.begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a
:07:01. > :07:06.strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic
:07:07. > :07:12.period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of
:07:13. > :07:18.working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do
:07:19. > :07:22.you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win.
:07:23. > :07:26.His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is
:07:27. > :07:34.going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip
:07:35. > :07:38.won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these
:07:39. > :07:42.discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is
:07:43. > :07:46.associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip
:07:47. > :07:51.and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it
:07:52. > :07:57.is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the
:07:58. > :08:01.favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result
:08:02. > :08:05.Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened
:08:06. > :08:10.of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason
:08:11. > :08:14.I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been
:08:15. > :08:20.something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness.
:08:21. > :08:26.That calls into question whether it can function as a political party
:08:27. > :08:32.when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an
:08:33. > :08:37.act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They
:08:38. > :08:41.have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should
:08:42. > :08:46.take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can
:08:47. > :08:48.turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and
:08:49. > :08:54.then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first.
:08:55. > :08:59.Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac
:09:00. > :09:03.Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about
:09:04. > :09:08.Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib
:09:09. > :09:12.Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems
:09:13. > :09:16.win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly
:09:17. > :09:21.close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists
:09:22. > :09:25.there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the
:09:26. > :09:30.place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage
:09:31. > :09:33.to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will
:09:34. > :09:42.probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I
:09:43. > :09:46.hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency,
:09:47. > :09:51.but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney,
:09:52. > :09:57.when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their
:09:58. > :10:00.aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously
:10:01. > :10:09.optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I
:10:10. > :10:14.don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are
:10:15. > :10:18.acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it
:10:19. > :10:24.would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else.
:10:25. > :10:29.Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we
:10:30. > :10:32.are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are
:10:33. > :10:35.covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the
:10:36. > :10:42.time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in
:10:43. > :10:47.declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on
:10:48. > :10:50.breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove
:10:51. > :10:56.was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious
:10:57. > :11:00.comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians
:11:01. > :11:05.often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense.
:11:06. > :11:12.Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there
:11:13. > :11:15.is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who
:11:16. > :11:20.have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the
:11:21. > :11:24.recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave,
:11:25. > :11:30.has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about.
:11:31. > :11:34.The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn
:11:35. > :11:41.Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget
:11:42. > :11:46.Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But
:11:47. > :11:52.what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget
:11:53. > :12:00.that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball
:12:01. > :12:03.territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much
:12:04. > :12:08.of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to
:12:09. > :12:12.be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to
:12:13. > :12:17.be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you
:12:18. > :12:21.say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the
:12:22. > :12:25.moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit,
:12:26. > :12:32.even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing
:12:33. > :12:38.such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could
:12:39. > :12:47.come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said,
:12:48. > :12:49.Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to
:12:50. > :12:56.give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically
:12:57. > :12:59.said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the
:13:00. > :13:02.back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what
:13:03. > :13:05.does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own
:13:06. > :13:13.government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond
:13:14. > :13:17.quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks
:13:18. > :13:24.bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said.
:13:25. > :13:27.He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a
:13:28. > :13:34.disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are
:13:35. > :13:36.covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution.
:13:37. > :13:38.Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow
:13:39. > :13:42.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11.
:13:43. > :14:16.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:17. > :14:20.to signify the Africans who were here.