:00:41. > :00:45.Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his
:00:46. > :00:47.impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.
:00:48. > :00:57.The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.
:00:58. > :00:59.But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?
:01:00. > :01:06.Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.
:01:07. > :01:11.And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election
:01:12. > :01:13.later this month, where Ukip is looking to give
:01:14. > :01:19.In London this week, as City Hall unveils initiatives
:01:20. > :01:24.to tackle air pollution, a clear example is being
:01:25. > :01:36.And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise
:01:37. > :01:42.Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.
:01:43. > :01:48.I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.
:01:49. > :01:50.So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability
:01:51. > :01:57.to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain
:01:58. > :02:04.The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views
:02:05. > :02:06.in front of an audience of students at Reading University
:02:07. > :02:23.This may not be popular with some people in this audience -
:02:24. > :02:27.I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,
:02:28. > :02:31.partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,
:02:32. > :02:35.and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,
:02:36. > :02:38.and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies
:02:39. > :02:41.of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big
:02:42. > :02:51.Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does
:02:52. > :02:57.he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,
:02:58. > :03:00.it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether
:03:01. > :03:05.there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the
:03:06. > :03:10.last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have
:03:11. > :03:16.the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy
:03:17. > :03:26.Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who
:03:27. > :03:31.pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had
:03:32. > :03:35.enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell
:03:36. > :03:39.the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running
:03:40. > :03:46.commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit
:03:47. > :03:48.negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone
:03:49. > :03:54.maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well
:03:55. > :03:59.prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --
:04:00. > :04:03.David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his
:04:04. > :04:07.position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of
:04:08. > :04:15.excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a
:04:16. > :04:21.guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical
:04:22. > :04:26.lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know
:04:27. > :04:36.his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has
:04:37. > :04:41.given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour
:04:42. > :04:45.which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a
:04:46. > :04:50.class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready
:04:51. > :04:55.replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not
:04:56. > :04:59.force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and
:05:00. > :05:05.the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is
:05:06. > :05:09.untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to
:05:10. > :05:13.fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he
:05:14. > :05:19.will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It
:05:20. > :05:23.will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to
:05:24. > :05:27.someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to
:05:28. > :05:31.life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,
:05:32. > :05:35.whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of
:05:36. > :05:42.Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a
:05:43. > :05:49.mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the
:05:50. > :05:51.referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to
:05:52. > :05:56.debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He
:05:57. > :06:02.chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no
:06:03. > :06:09.desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind
:06:10. > :06:15.of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he
:06:16. > :06:22.doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.
:06:23. > :06:26.Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into
:06:27. > :06:30.his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think
:06:31. > :06:33.that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of
:06:34. > :06:38.Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.
:06:39. > :06:44.Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving
:06:45. > :06:48.like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine
:06:49. > :06:51.doing that. It is good he is different.
:06:52. > :06:55.The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50
:06:56. > :06:57.and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through
:06:58. > :07:01.Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote
:07:02. > :07:03.with their conscience, their constituency,
:07:04. > :07:06.Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,
:07:07. > :07:08.is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.
:07:09. > :07:14.So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:
:07:15. > :07:16.Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,
:07:17. > :07:18.we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.
:07:19. > :07:24.It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.
:07:25. > :07:31.On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill
:07:32. > :07:33.was voted through by the House of Commons.
:07:34. > :07:42.The bill left the Labour Party divided.
:07:43. > :07:45.Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result
:07:46. > :07:47.of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -
:07:48. > :07:50.But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip
:07:51. > :08:06.That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
:08:07. > :08:09.Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,
:08:10. > :08:11.the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.
:08:12. > :08:14.However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,
:08:15. > :08:16.even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.
:08:17. > :08:17.The Conservative Party were much more united.
:08:18. > :08:20.The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.
:08:21. > :08:23.Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.
:08:24. > :08:24.His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.
:08:25. > :08:27.The bill will now go to the House of Lords -
:08:28. > :08:41.peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.
:08:42. > :08:43.Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at
:08:44. > :08:46.He's got a book out next month called
:08:47. > :08:48.Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.
:08:49. > :08:56.Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the
:08:57. > :09:00.referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now
:09:01. > :09:05.becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it
:09:06. > :09:09.certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics
:09:10. > :09:13.more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left
:09:14. > :09:17.and right division has been making way for a new division, between
:09:18. > :09:21.essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an
:09:22. > :09:25.incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so
:09:26. > :09:32.it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is
:09:33. > :09:36.that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social
:09:37. > :09:40.democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,
:09:41. > :09:45.that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to
:09:46. > :09:49.know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at
:09:50. > :09:55.what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at
:09:56. > :10:02.by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the
:10:03. > :10:05.Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the
:10:06. > :10:09.possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to
:10:10. > :10:14.be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are
:10:15. > :10:18.traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving
:10:19. > :10:22.the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not
:10:23. > :10:27.just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would
:10:28. > :10:30.become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a
:10:31. > :10:36.party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S
:10:37. > :10:41.seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the
:10:42. > :10:45.cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can
:10:46. > :10:48.seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the
:10:49. > :10:55.traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are
:10:56. > :10:59.offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social
:11:00. > :11:02.Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not
:11:03. > :11:06.saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of
:11:07. > :11:09.stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often
:11:10. > :11:13.gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you
:11:14. > :11:21.look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German
:11:22. > :11:24.Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a
:11:25. > :11:29.referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on
:11:30. > :11:34.April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of
:11:35. > :11:38.social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by
:11:39. > :11:42.that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would
:11:43. > :11:48.still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are
:11:49. > :11:51.trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who
:11:52. > :11:56.think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very
:11:57. > :12:02.difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of
:12:03. > :12:06.coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.
:12:07. > :12:11.Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather
:12:12. > :12:15.than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European
:12:16. > :12:21.Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now
:12:22. > :12:27.seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the
:12:28. > :12:31.issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue
:12:32. > :12:36.of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015
:12:37. > :12:41.or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the
:12:42. > :12:46.so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It
:12:47. > :12:50.is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,
:12:51. > :12:54.to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that
:12:55. > :12:59.cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might
:13:00. > :13:01.go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.
:13:02. > :13:04.Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House
:13:05. > :13:07.of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill
:13:08. > :13:09.in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged
:13:10. > :13:12.the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker
:13:13. > :13:14.with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin
:13:15. > :13:16.went one further - mooting the possibility
:13:17. > :13:18.of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate
:13:19. > :13:21.the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question
:13:22. > :13:29.in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government
:13:30. > :13:32.time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end
:13:33. > :13:35.of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this
:13:36. > :13:38.House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale
:13:39. > :13:48.reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins
:13:49. > :14:01.me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let
:14:02. > :14:05.win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a
:14:06. > :14:09.matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's
:14:10. > :14:13.remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running
:14:14. > :14:19.commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as
:14:20. > :14:26.speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about
:14:27. > :14:30.nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some
:14:31. > :14:33.opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any
:14:34. > :14:40.particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.
:14:41. > :14:44.I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I
:14:45. > :14:49.have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he
:14:50. > :14:52.handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is
:14:53. > :14:56.some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come
:14:57. > :15:02.on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have
:15:03. > :15:07.you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its
:15:08. > :15:15.job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,
:15:16. > :15:19.Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has
:15:20. > :15:24.to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the
:15:25. > :15:29.House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and
:15:30. > :15:33.expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all
:15:34. > :15:38.of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say
:15:39. > :15:43.scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking
:15:44. > :15:49.carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,
:15:50. > :15:53.hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable
:15:54. > :15:57.expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,
:15:58. > :16:01.to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that
:16:02. > :16:05.the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is
:16:06. > :16:09.seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper
:16:10. > :16:13.House and the House of Lords performs it pretty
:16:14. > :16:24.Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first
:16:25. > :16:30.clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go
:16:31. > :16:36.ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,
:16:37. > :16:43.this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.
:16:44. > :16:48.There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got
:16:49. > :16:52.through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are
:16:53. > :16:57.you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?
:16:58. > :17:01.No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of
:17:02. > :17:04.amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all
:17:05. > :17:09.drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.
:17:10. > :17:16.This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or
:17:17. > :17:21.not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of
:17:22. > :17:30.it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the
:17:31. > :17:34.British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons
:17:35. > :17:39.voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by
:17:40. > :17:44.the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that
:17:45. > :17:47.when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before
:17:48. > :17:52.parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been
:17:53. > :17:57.an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government
:17:58. > :18:01.has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the
:18:02. > :18:06.amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on
:18:07. > :18:09.whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the
:18:10. > :18:14.House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact
:18:15. > :18:20.I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should
:18:21. > :18:24.think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of
:18:25. > :18:29.British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on
:18:30. > :18:32.clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you
:18:33. > :18:36.concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go
:18:37. > :18:43.back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned
:18:44. > :18:48.that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?
:18:49. > :18:52.Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of
:18:53. > :18:56.ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords
:18:57. > :19:01.failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It
:19:02. > :19:04.would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of
:19:05. > :19:10.us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole
:19:11. > :19:15.country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a
:19:16. > :19:20.rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,
:19:21. > :19:24.that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts
:19:25. > :19:29.to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that
:19:30. > :19:36.make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper
:19:37. > :19:40.chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among
:19:41. > :19:44.those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of
:19:45. > :19:48.Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we
:19:49. > :19:53.should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a
:19:54. > :19:58.second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very
:19:59. > :20:02.clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has
:20:03. > :20:07.been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and
:20:08. > :20:12.what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it
:20:13. > :20:17.becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.
:20:18. > :20:20.One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it
:20:21. > :20:26.goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back
:20:27. > :20:33.again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two
:20:34. > :20:38.chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and
:20:39. > :20:42.complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of
:20:43. > :20:47.Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain
:20:48. > :20:51.machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my
:20:52. > :20:54.experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,
:20:55. > :20:57.and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want
:20:58. > :21:02.to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.
:21:03. > :21:05.Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.
:21:06. > :21:09.Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.
:21:10. > :21:15.The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were
:21:16. > :21:21.changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the
:21:22. > :21:25.amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do
:21:26. > :21:29.the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right
:21:30. > :21:35.thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or
:21:36. > :21:41.cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We
:21:42. > :21:45.will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will
:21:46. > :21:49.scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We
:21:50. > :21:52.will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote
:21:53. > :21:57.on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.
:21:58. > :22:02.That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if
:22:03. > :22:07.you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If
:22:08. > :22:11.the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will
:22:12. > :22:17.happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly
:22:18. > :22:21.legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are
:22:22. > :22:25.talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament
:22:26. > :22:28.and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for
:22:29. > :22:31.Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of
:22:32. > :22:35.negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a
:22:36. > :22:40.process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get
:22:41. > :22:46.this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back
:22:47. > :22:49.to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and
:22:50. > :22:54.it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the
:22:55. > :22:59.Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of
:23:00. > :23:03.March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think
:23:04. > :23:07.Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the
:23:08. > :23:10.normal process. Unless the government get things right the
:23:11. > :23:15.first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are
:23:16. > :23:19.reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking
:23:20. > :23:33.about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any
:23:34. > :23:37.vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,
:23:38. > :23:39.the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government
:23:40. > :23:43.I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be
:23:44. > :23:46.on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed
:23:47. > :23:50.it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to
:23:51. > :23:55.that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is
:23:56. > :24:00.important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the
:24:01. > :24:05.ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know
:24:06. > :24:11.long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?
:24:12. > :24:16.I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do
:24:17. > :24:19.not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when
:24:20. > :24:24.we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate
:24:25. > :24:31.these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is
:24:32. > :24:34.not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look
:24:35. > :24:38.again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords
:24:39. > :24:43.decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with
:24:44. > :24:47.what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on
:24:48. > :24:52.all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are
:24:53. > :24:56.saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to
:24:57. > :25:00.have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a
:25:01. > :25:05.referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear
:25:06. > :25:07.result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but
:25:08. > :25:12.there are things which are not good about the process that we think
:25:13. > :25:16.could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum
:25:17. > :25:22.which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that
:25:23. > :25:28.passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not
:25:29. > :25:33.contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper
:25:34. > :25:37.house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite
:25:38. > :25:40.other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from
:25:41. > :25:44.the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then
:25:45. > :25:50.forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not
:25:51. > :25:53.necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could
:25:54. > :25:58.do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not
:25:59. > :26:03.unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote
:26:04. > :26:08.in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of
:26:09. > :26:11.abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and
:26:12. > :26:14.absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of
:26:15. > :26:19.Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government
:26:20. > :26:23.and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when
:26:24. > :26:28.the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying
:26:29. > :26:31.to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to
:26:32. > :26:35.the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if
:26:36. > :26:44.the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for
:26:45. > :26:51.the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like
:26:52. > :26:55.Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and
:26:56. > :26:59.appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to
:27:00. > :27:04.defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would
:27:05. > :27:07.suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is
:27:08. > :27:10.a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in
:27:11. > :27:15.history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge
:27:16. > :27:21.or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in
:27:22. > :27:23.defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour
:27:24. > :27:27.can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right
:27:28. > :27:34.every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like
:27:35. > :27:37.Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people
:27:38. > :27:44.who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I
:27:45. > :27:47.don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make
:27:48. > :27:51.amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for
:27:52. > :27:55.the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments
:27:56. > :28:01.to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to
:28:02. > :28:06.stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying
:28:07. > :28:09.that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is
:28:10. > :28:13.inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the
:28:14. > :28:16.House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean
:28:17. > :28:21.we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will
:28:22. > :28:27.happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May
:28:28. > :28:30.has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.
:28:31. > :28:32.Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week
:28:33. > :28:36.There are two by-elections round the corner -
:28:37. > :28:38.one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central
:28:39. > :28:39.where the former Shadow Education Secretary,
:28:40. > :28:42.Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role
:28:43. > :28:45.as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.
:28:46. > :28:47.But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency
:28:48. > :28:53.Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring
:28:54. > :28:56.as their candidate in a by-election bout to see
:28:57. > :29:03.At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here
:29:04. > :29:08.But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,
:29:09. > :29:14.because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.
:29:15. > :29:18.70% of people voted to leave the European Union.
:29:19. > :29:25.I'm the only candidate standing in this election
:29:26. > :29:28.who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave
:29:29. > :29:31.the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person
:29:32. > :29:34.But he has had to fight off allegations
:29:35. > :29:36.he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.
:29:37. > :29:40.Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?
:29:41. > :29:42.Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.
:29:43. > :29:44.Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.
:29:45. > :29:50.The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election
:29:51. > :29:57.and focus on something which is banal nonsense.
:29:58. > :30:02.And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.
:30:03. > :30:05.He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series
:30:06. > :30:07.of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words
:30:08. > :30:18.I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery
:30:19. > :30:21.on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that
:30:22. > :30:26.I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.
:30:27. > :30:28.It was done quite after the referendum result and it
:30:29. > :30:31.was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months
:30:32. > :30:36.after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.
:30:37. > :30:38.Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,
:30:39. > :30:40.she had failed to give any meaningful statement
:30:41. > :30:42.about what Brexit meant other than bland statements
:30:43. > :30:45.about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.
:30:46. > :30:49.The context of it was it was out of frustration.
:30:50. > :30:53.So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here
:30:54. > :30:56.I never mean to insult anybody and you know,
:30:57. > :30:58.I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member
:30:59. > :31:01.of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect
:31:02. > :31:03.the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.
:31:04. > :31:07.I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.
:31:08. > :31:09.While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.
:31:10. > :31:12.I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority
:31:13. > :31:15.is about the economy and to ensure we still have an
:31:16. > :31:19.Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop
:31:20. > :31:29.a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.
:31:30. > :31:32.It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.
:31:33. > :31:34.Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.
:31:35. > :31:40.The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.
:31:41. > :31:43.He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.
:31:44. > :31:45.He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.
:31:46. > :31:49.30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else
:31:50. > :31:53.is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.
:31:54. > :31:55.It is still something people care about.
:31:56. > :31:58.We are only at the start of the Article 50 process
:31:59. > :32:03.We are very a clear that we are standing up for those
:32:04. > :32:06.who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs
:32:07. > :32:10.Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.
:32:11. > :32:13.Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.
:32:14. > :32:16.I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.
:32:17. > :32:19.We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this
:32:20. > :32:38.And here is a full list of all the candidates standing
:32:39. > :32:49.in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.
:32:50. > :32:58.They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website
:32:59. > :33:06.as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition
:33:07. > :33:08.party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a
:33:09. > :33:15.government. All the speculation is where the
:33:16. > :33:20.opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an
:33:21. > :33:26.equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held
:33:27. > :33:32.traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by
:33:33. > :33:36.the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of
:33:37. > :33:41.these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the
:33:42. > :33:45.leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.
:33:46. > :33:51.Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the
:33:52. > :33:58.years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like
:33:59. > :34:03.Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,
:34:04. > :34:13.Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are
:34:14. > :34:17.more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more
:34:18. > :34:21.diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent
:34:22. > :34:25.evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up
:34:26. > :34:29.the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope
:34:30. > :34:32.lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would
:34:33. > :34:37.suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear
:34:38. > :34:41.too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it
:34:42. > :34:46.still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is
:34:47. > :34:53.a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,
:34:54. > :34:57.over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I
:34:58. > :35:04.mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they
:35:05. > :35:09.had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what
:35:10. > :35:14.they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over
:35:15. > :35:18.the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an
:35:19. > :35:23.era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a
:35:24. > :35:30.regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,
:35:31. > :35:34.but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do
:35:35. > :35:39.split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is
:35:40. > :35:45.still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and
:35:46. > :35:48.Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently
:35:49. > :35:53.that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the
:35:54. > :35:58.current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be
:35:59. > :36:00.a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current
:36:01. > :36:04.Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about
:36:05. > :36:07.Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think
:36:08. > :36:13.that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the
:36:14. > :36:17.mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour
:36:18. > :36:21.candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is
:36:22. > :36:25.is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has
:36:26. > :36:30.done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember
:36:31. > :36:37.speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after
:36:38. > :36:41.the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and
:36:42. > :36:44.this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one
:36:45. > :36:49.particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to
:36:50. > :36:54.play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win
:36:55. > :36:57.it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has
:36:58. > :37:01.made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,
:37:02. > :37:07.are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were
:37:08. > :37:10.saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the
:37:11. > :37:13.moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to
:37:14. > :37:17.overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has
:37:18. > :37:21.been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,
:37:22. > :37:28.but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why
:37:29. > :37:34.I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.
:37:35. > :37:36.At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these
:37:37. > :37:40.by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for
:37:41. > :37:44.Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been
:37:45. > :37:49.in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.
:37:50. > :37:53.We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of
:37:54. > :37:55.this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial
:37:56. > :37:59.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:00. > :38:01.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:02. > :01:14.Andrew, back to you. minutes, the Week Ahead.
:01:15. > :01:17.After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,
:01:18. > :01:20.MPs are having a little break this week as we head into
:01:21. > :01:23.But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -
:01:24. > :01:31.let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.
:01:32. > :01:41.There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The
:01:42. > :01:44.budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this
:01:45. > :01:58.Government because it moves to the autumn.
:01:59. > :02:05.That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably
:02:06. > :02:10.about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,
:02:11. > :02:17.then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next
:02:18. > :02:21.President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour
:02:22. > :02:25.leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of
:02:26. > :02:30.March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew
:02:31. > :02:35.Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to
:02:36. > :02:41.block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised
:02:42. > :02:45.if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination
:02:46. > :02:51.to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think
:02:52. > :02:55.one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor
:02:56. > :03:00.the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you
:03:01. > :03:03.think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it
:03:04. > :03:06.would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name
:03:07. > :03:12.the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a
:03:13. > :03:16.good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics
:03:17. > :03:19.for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in
:03:20. > :03:24.our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can
:03:25. > :03:28.find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to
:03:29. > :03:32.time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change
:03:33. > :03:38.politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger
:03:39. > :03:42.than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal
:03:43. > :03:47.Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would
:03:48. > :03:52.suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does
:03:53. > :03:57.get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay
:03:58. > :04:00.that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have
:04:01. > :04:07.another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary
:04:08. > :04:14.of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the
:04:15. > :04:18.table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have
:04:19. > :04:22.done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew
:04:23. > :04:28.Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back
:04:29. > :04:34.but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal
:04:35. > :04:39.Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not
:04:40. > :04:43.the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the
:04:44. > :04:47.European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know
:04:48. > :04:50.because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch
:04:51. > :04:54.taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at
:04:55. > :05:01.the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a
:05:02. > :05:09.play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first
:05:10. > :05:13.in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish
:05:14. > :05:18.Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that
:05:19. > :05:23.will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.
:05:24. > :05:27.You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a
:05:28. > :05:31.national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing
:05:32. > :05:38.France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A
:05:39. > :05:44.reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in
:05:45. > :05:50.the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected
:05:51. > :05:56.elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal
:05:57. > :06:03.views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them
:06:04. > :06:11.to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le
:06:12. > :06:16.Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the
:06:17. > :06:23.future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are
:06:24. > :06:26.were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some
:06:27. > :06:30.problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in
:06:31. > :06:35.the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a
:06:36. > :06:42.number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of
:06:43. > :06:49.people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She
:06:50. > :06:56.thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't
:06:57. > :07:01.got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to
:07:02. > :07:04.play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,
:07:05. > :07:11.not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how
:07:12. > :07:24.much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting
:07:25. > :07:27.on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from
:07:28. > :07:30.European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see
:07:31. > :07:36.what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do
:07:37. > :07:40.know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get
:07:41. > :07:45.through to the second round. He could come firth but the
:07:46. > :07:48.centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would
:07:49. > :07:54.say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to
:07:55. > :07:58.saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le
:07:59. > :08:04.Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,
:08:05. > :08:10.it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as
:08:11. > :08:13.in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had
:08:14. > :08:17.got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has
:08:18. > :08:23.transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the
:08:24. > :08:28.French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April
:08:29. > :08:33.23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he
:08:34. > :08:34.was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,
:08:35. > :08:39.this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership
:08:40. > :08:43.election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,
:08:44. > :08:47.but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this
:08:48. > :08:49.parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear
:08:50. > :09:05.message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you
:09:06. > :09:11.are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media
:09:12. > :09:14.performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,
:09:15. > :09:19.things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win
:09:20. > :09:24.2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their
:09:25. > :09:29.offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking
:09:30. > :09:34.well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might
:09:35. > :09:42.like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going
:09:43. > :09:48.to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he
:09:49. > :09:55.the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership
:09:56. > :09:59.is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide
:10:00. > :10:04.to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is
:10:05. > :10:09.not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be
:10:10. > :10:14.the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas
:10:15. > :10:19.would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if
:10:20. > :10:24.we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general
:10:25. > :10:29.election, which means you have another itration of this, another
:10:30. > :10:36.five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour
:10:37. > :10:41.moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general
:10:42. > :10:44.election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for
:10:45. > :10:50.the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn
:10:51. > :10:54.going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment
:10:55. > :11:00.being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated
:11:01. > :11:04.the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.
:11:05. > :11:11.Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had
:11:12. > :11:15.their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest
:11:16. > :11:20.they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any
:11:21. > :11:26.indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is
:11:27. > :11:31.now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what
:11:32. > :11:37.he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another
:11:38. > :11:43.attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question
:11:44. > :11:49.enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a
:11:50. > :11:55.daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about
:11:56. > :11:58.winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of
:11:59. > :12:02.two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself
:12:03. > :12:09.will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half
:12:10. > :12:14.hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some
:12:15. > :12:20.people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another
:12:21. > :12:25.three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it
:12:26. > :12:30.lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be
:12:31. > :12:35.under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this
:12:36. > :12:39.level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the
:12:40. > :12:44.idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the
:12:45. > :12:49.people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and
:12:50. > :12:53.they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most
:12:54. > :12:58.of people were let alone most of the public.
:12:59. > :13:04.Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership
:13:05. > :13:09.potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the
:13:10. > :13:10.Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That
:13:11. > :13:14.is it. Now, there's no Daily
:13:15. > :13:16.or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back
:13:17. > :13:21.on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics
:13:22. > :13:24.on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:25. > :13:26.it's the Sunday Politics... Just back from
:13:27. > :14:08.a very long shift at work...