:00:37. > :00:42.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:43. > :00:45.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:46. > :00:47.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:48. > :00:50.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:51. > :00:56.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:57. > :00:59.but where is that threat coming from?
:01:00. > :01:01.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:02. > :01:06.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:07. > :01:12.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:13. > :01:14.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:15. > :01:19.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:20. > :01:24.In London this week a shake-up in education funding could lead
:01:25. > :01:27.to 70% of schools losing money in the capital.
:01:28. > :01:41.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:42. > :01:44.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:45. > :01:47.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:48. > :01:50.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:51. > :01:53.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:54. > :01:55.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:56. > :02:00.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:01. > :02:06.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:07. > :02:08.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:09. > :02:12.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:13. > :02:15.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:16. > :02:17.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:18. > :02:22.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:23. > :02:25.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:26. > :02:37.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:38. > :02:43.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:44. > :02:47.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:48. > :02:50.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:51. > :03:02.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:03. > :03:07.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:08. > :03:11.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:12. > :03:15.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:16. > :03:21.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:22. > :03:25.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:26. > :03:31.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:32. > :03:35.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:36. > :03:39.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:40. > :03:45.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:46. > :03:51.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:52. > :03:58.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:59. > :04:02.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:03. > :04:05.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:06. > :04:12.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:13. > :04:16.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:17. > :04:20.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:21. > :04:24.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:25. > :04:29.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:30. > :04:34.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:35. > :04:37.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:38. > :04:44.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:45. > :04:49.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:50. > :04:54.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:55. > :04:58.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:59. > :05:03.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:04. > :05:07.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:08. > :05:12.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:13. > :05:17.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:18. > :05:20.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:21. > :05:25.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:26. > :05:30.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:31. > :05:36.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:37. > :05:42.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:43. > :05:48.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:49. > :05:52.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:53. > :05:58.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:59. > :06:04.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:05. > :06:10.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:11. > :06:14.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:15. > :06:18.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:19. > :06:24.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:25. > :06:30.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:31. > :06:34.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:35. > :06:39.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:40. > :06:44.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:45. > :06:51.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:52. > :06:57.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:58. > :07:03.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:04. > :07:07.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:08. > :07:11.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:12. > :07:15.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:16. > :07:18.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:19. > :07:24.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:25. > :07:29.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:30. > :07:33.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:34. > :07:35.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:36. > :07:38.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:39. > :07:41.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:42. > :07:44.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:45. > :07:47.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:48. > :07:49.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:50. > :07:55.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:56. > :07:59.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:08:00. > :08:03.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:04. > :08:06.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:07. > :08:10.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:11. > :08:15.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:16. > :08:17."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:18. > :08:19.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:20. > :08:22.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:23. > :08:26.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:27. > :08:36.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:37. > :08:42.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:43. > :08:46.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:47. > :08:46.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:47. > :08:50.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:51. > :08:53.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:54. > :08:59.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:09:00. > :09:03.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:04. > :09:06.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:07. > :09:13.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:14. > :09:16.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:17. > :09:22.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:23. > :09:26.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:27. > :09:33.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:34. > :09:40.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:41. > :09:46.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:47. > :09:50.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:51. > :09:54.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:55. > :09:58.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:59. > :10:03.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:04. > :10:07.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:08. > :10:13.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:14. > :10:21.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:22. > :10:27.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:28. > :10:31.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:32. > :10:36.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:37. > :10:44.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:45. > :10:49.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:50. > :10:52.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:53. > :10:57.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:58. > :11:01.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:02. > :11:07.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:08. > :11:12.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:13. > :11:17.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:18. > :11:22.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:23. > :11:26.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:27. > :11:31.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:32. > :11:34.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:35. > :11:41.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:42. > :11:48.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:49. > :11:52.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:53. > :11:58.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:59. > :12:05.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:06. > :12:08.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:09. > :12:13.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:14. > :12:17.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:18. > :12:23.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:24. > :12:28.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:29. > :12:33.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:34. > :12:36.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:37. > :12:42.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:43. > :12:46.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:47. > :12:52.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:53. > :12:56.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:57. > :13:03.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:04. > :13:10.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:11. > :13:15.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:16. > :13:20.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:21. > :13:24.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:25. > :13:28.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:29. > :13:35.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:36. > :13:41.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:42. > :13:46.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:47. > :13:49.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:50. > :13:55.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:56. > :14:03.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:04. > :14:07.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:08. > :14:10.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:11. > :14:16.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:17. > :14:19.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:20. > :14:25.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:26. > :14:29.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:30. > :14:34.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:35. > :14:39.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:40. > :14:43.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:44. > :14:50.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:51. > :14:53.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:54. > :14:59.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:15:00. > :15:08.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:09. > :15:09.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:10. > :15:18.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:19. > :15:22.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:23. > :15:27.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:28. > :15:32.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:33. > :15:38.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:39. > :15:41.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:42. > :15:44.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:45. > :15:51.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:52. > :15:57.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:58. > :16:03.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:04. > :16:07.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:08. > :16:11.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:12. > :16:19.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:20. > :16:26.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:27. > :16:30.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:31. > :16:33.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:34. > :16:37.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:38. > :16:43.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:44. > :16:48.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:49. > :16:53.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:54. > :17:00.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:01. > :17:05.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:06. > :17:13.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:14. > :17:19.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:20. > :17:25.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:26. > :17:29.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:30. > :17:34.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:35. > :17:37.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:38. > :17:40.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:41. > :17:45.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:46. > :17:50.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:51. > :17:56.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:57. > :18:09.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:10. > :18:13.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:14. > :18:19.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:20. > :18:25.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:26. > :18:30.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:31. > :18:35.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:36. > :18:42.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:43. > :18:48.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:49. > :18:53.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:54. > :18:56.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:57. > :19:05.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:06. > :19:09.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:10. > :19:12.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:13. > :19:13.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:14. > :19:16.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:17. > :19:22.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:23. > :19:27.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:28. > :19:30.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:31. > :19:32.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:33. > :19:34.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:35. > :19:43.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:44. > :19:51.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:52. > :20:00.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:01. > :20:03.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:04. > :20:07.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:08. > :20:09.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:10. > :20:12.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:13. > :20:14.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:15. > :20:18.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:19. > :20:21.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:22. > :20:25.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:26. > :20:28.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:29. > :20:31.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:32. > :20:35.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:36. > :20:38.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:39. > :20:43.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:44. > :20:46.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:47. > :20:49.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:50. > :20:52.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:53. > :20:55.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:56. > :21:03.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:04. > :21:06.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:07. > :21:09.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:10. > :21:16.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:17. > :21:24.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:25. > :21:28.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:29. > :21:32.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:33. > :21:35.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:36. > :21:37.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:38. > :21:39.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:40. > :21:44.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:45. > :21:47.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:48. > :21:50.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:51. > :21:54.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:55. > :21:59.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:22:00. > :22:04.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:05. > :22:07.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:08. > :22:10.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:11. > :22:12.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:13. > :22:21.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:22. > :22:24.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:25. > :22:26.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:27. > :22:33.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:34. > :22:43.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:44. > :22:46.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:47. > :22:48.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:49. > :22:52.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:53. > :22:55.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:56. > :23:03.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:04. > :23:10.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:11. > :23:11.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:12. > :23:15.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:16. > :23:20.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:21. > :23:22.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:23. > :23:26.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:27. > :23:29.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:30. > :23:35.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:36. > :23:42.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:43. > :23:44.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:45. > :23:59.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:24:00. > :24:05.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:06. > :24:10.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:11. > :24:14.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:15. > :24:18.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:19. > :24:23.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:24. > :24:28.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:29. > :24:30.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:31. > :24:36.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:37. > :24:43.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:44. > :24:48.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:49. > :24:51.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:52. > :24:54.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:55. > :24:59.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:25:00. > :25:05.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:06. > :25:08.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:09. > :25:13.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:14. > :25:17.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:18. > :25:21.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:22. > :25:25.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:26. > :25:30.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:31. > :25:33.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:34. > :25:39.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:40. > :25:44.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:45. > :25:50.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:51. > :25:56.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:57. > :25:59.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:00. > :26:03.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:04. > :26:23.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:24. > :26:29.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:30. > :26:34.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:35. > :26:38.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:39. > :26:44.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:45. > :26:48.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:49. > :26:52.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:53. > :27:00.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:01. > :27:09.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:10. > :27:13.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:14. > :27:18.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:19. > :27:24.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:25. > :27:28.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:29. > :27:32.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:33. > :27:36.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:37. > :27:43.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:44. > :27:48.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:49. > :27:56.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:57. > :28:03.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:04. > :28:07.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:08. > :28:12.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:13. > :28:19.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:20. > :28:25.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:26. > :28:29.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:30. > :28:31.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:32. > :28:39.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:40. > :28:47.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:48. > :28:51.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:52. > :28:57.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:58. > :29:05.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:06. > :29:10.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:11. > :29:19.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:20. > :29:23.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:24. > :29:30.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:31. > :29:35.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:36. > :29:41.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:42. > :29:45.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:46. > :29:48.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:49. > :29:54.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:55. > :29:59.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:30:00. > :30:02.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:03. > :30:10.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:11. > :30:12.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:13. > :30:25.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:26. > :30:29.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:30. > :30:32.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:33. > :30:37.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:38. > :30:44.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:45. > :30:50.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:51. > :30:55.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:56. > :31:01.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:02. > :31:07.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:08. > :31:15.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:16. > :31:17.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:18. > :31:22.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:23. > :31:27.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:28. > :31:32.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:33. > :31:36.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:37. > :31:44.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:45. > :31:48.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:49. > :31:52.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:53. > :31:56.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:57. > :31:59.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:00. > :32:04.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:05. > :32:08.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:09. > :32:11.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:12. > :32:14.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:15. > :32:18.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:19. > :32:21.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:22. > :32:24.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:25. > :32:29.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:30. > :32:32.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:33. > :32:38.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:39. > :32:41.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:42. > :32:46.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:47. > :32:50.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:51. > :32:55.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:56. > :32:59.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:33:00. > :33:05.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:06. > :33:09.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:10. > :33:15.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:16. > :33:19.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:20. > :33:22.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:23. > :33:29.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:30. > :33:34.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:35. > :33:41.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:42. > :33:45.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:46. > :33:50.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:51. > :33:56.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:57. > :34:01.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:02. > :34:06.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:07. > :34:09.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:10. > :34:14.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:15. > :34:19.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:20. > :34:24.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:25. > :34:28.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:29. > :34:35.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:36. > :34:39.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:40. > :34:46.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:47. > :34:49.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:50. > :34:55.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:56. > :35:00.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:01. > :35:04.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:05. > :35:09.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:10. > :35:14.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:15. > :35:17.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:18. > :35:21.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:22. > :35:26.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:27. > :35:30.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:31. > :35:35.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:36. > :35:41.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:42. > :35:44.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:45. > :35:48.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:49. > :35:54.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:55. > :35:58.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:59. > :36:02.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:03. > :36:07.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:08. > :36:11.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:12. > :36:16.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:17. > :36:21.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:22. > :36:28.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:29. > :36:34.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:35. > :36:39.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:40. > :36:45.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:46. > :36:49.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:50. > :36:53.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:54. > :36:58.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:59. > :37:02.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:03. > :37:08.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:09. > :37:13.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:14. > :37:18.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:19. > :37:24.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:25. > :37:29.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:30. > :37:33.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:34. > :37:38.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:39. > :37:43.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:44. > :37:49.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:50. > :37:52.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:53. > :37:57.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:58. > :38:03.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:04. > :38:07.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:08. > :38:12.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:13. > :38:19.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:20. > :38:26.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:27. > :38:32.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:33. > :38:37.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:38. > :38:39.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:40. > :38:41.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:42. > :38:43.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:44. > :38:45.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:46. > :38:49.minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday
:38:50. > :38:58.Politics where you are. This week, London schools get
:38:59. > :39:03.the best results in the country. A little later on today we will be
:39:04. > :39:09.looking at the shake-up of the way schools are funded which is set
:39:10. > :39:12.to see 70% of them in With me this week is Labour MP
:39:13. > :39:19.for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter, and the Conservative MP
:39:20. > :39:21.for Twickenham, Tanya Mattias. Let's kick off by asking
:39:22. > :01:50.about the budget on Wednesday. Let's kick off by asking
:01:51. > :01:53.need Crossrail as well. We will be poring over the entrails of the
:01:54. > :01:59.budget next week. Thank you very much indeed.
:02:00. > :02:05.So the Brexit Bill is back in the Lords next week and the Lib Dems
:02:06. > :02:08.They've ordered pizza and camp beds to encourage their peers
:02:09. > :02:11.to keep talking all night, only to be told by the Lord's
:02:12. > :02:18.authorities that their plans fall foul of health and safety laws.
:02:19. > :02:25.Laws that they probably voted for. What did you make of David
:02:26. > :02:30.Liddington's remarks on the Lords amendments, particularly not just
:02:31. > :02:35.the one on EU nationals, but on what is regarded as a meaningful vote at
:02:36. > :02:40.the end of the process? Let's be clear, as ministers like to say, the
:02:41. > :02:45.meaningful vote vote is by far the biggest thing that will happen in
:02:46. > :02:51.Parliament. It puts EU citizens into a tiny corner. It will decide not
:02:52. > :02:56.just who is going to have the final say on this, but who the EU is
:02:57. > :03:01.negotiating with. Is it directly with Theresa May or is it with
:03:02. > :03:05.Parliament? Who will decide the shape of Brexit, Parliament or
:03:06. > :03:13.Theresa May? The Lords amendment is just the first chapter. They have
:03:14. > :03:15.voiced Theresa May to give them a veto on everything she does, and
:03:16. > :03:23.there is a possible chance in the Commons could uphold this amendment.
:03:24. > :03:29.The meaningful vote amendment? The meaningful vote amendment. But is it
:03:30. > :03:36.a meaningful vote if the choice is to either back the deal or crash out
:03:37. > :03:40.of the deal? That is what the remain supporting MPs or hardline people
:03:41. > :03:44.who want to remain fear. What they want is the power to be able to send
:03:45. > :03:51.Theresa May back to the negotiating table. Why is that anathema to many
:03:52. > :03:55.Brexit supporters? They believed it would crucially and critically
:03:56. > :04:00.undermine Theresa May's negotiating hand and also create a long period
:04:01. > :04:04.of uncertainty for business. There is already great uncertainty and
:04:05. > :04:08.this could extend it. The government's position is in there
:04:09. > :04:14.was a proper, meaningful vote which Parliament could reject what was on
:04:15. > :04:20.offer, that would be an incentive to the EU to give us a bad deal? I
:04:21. > :04:23.think that is the fear. If you are saying to the people you are
:04:24. > :04:28.negotiating with that that is another authority and Theresa May
:04:29. > :04:31.will have to go back and have all of this approved, I think it would have
:04:32. > :04:38.a very significant undermining effect on her negotiating hand.
:04:39. > :04:44.Things change from day to day. We are talking about 2019 and 2018 at
:04:45. > :04:52.the earliest, but if the government lost a vote on the Brexit deal,
:04:53. > :04:57.would he not have to call in someone else? That is why the vote will be
:04:58. > :05:02.meaningful even if the amendment on this meaningful vote will be lost.
:05:03. > :05:08.You cannot do a deal on something as historic as Brexit and have
:05:09. > :05:13.Parliament against you. So, whatever form this vote takes, whenever it
:05:14. > :05:22.happens, it will be hugely meaningful. Whatever label that is
:05:23. > :05:28.given and if she lost it she would call a general election. She could
:05:29. > :05:32.not impose it. To call a general election now you need a majority of
:05:33. > :05:37.MPs which she will not have, so maybe she will not get her election
:05:38. > :05:41.after all. It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:42. > :05:44.It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:45. > :05:47.The elections to Stormont have given a boost to the republicans and put
:05:48. > :05:49.the long term status of Northern Ireland in some doubt.
:05:50. > :05:52.Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams spoke to reporters
:05:53. > :05:57.Yesterday was in many, many ways a watershed election,
:05:58. > :06:01.and we have just started a process of reflecting what it all means,
:06:02. > :06:17.but clearly the union's majority in the Assembly has been ended,
:06:18. > :06:19.and the notion of a permanent or a perpetual unionist majority
:06:20. > :06:32.Is he right? Is this a watershed? The nationalist vote in the assembly
:06:33. > :06:38.will now come to 39 and the Unionists 38. It is only one member,
:06:39. > :06:42.but it is significant. This is a very serious moment and because of
:06:43. > :06:45.everything else going on with Donald Trump and Brexit it is taking a
:06:46. > :06:51.while for people here to realise just how significant this is.
:06:52. > :06:54.Talking to someone who only recently left a significant role in Northern
:06:55. > :06:59.Ireland politics last night, they said they were very worried about
:07:00. > :07:03.what this means. It is likely there will be a call for some kind of
:07:04. > :07:08.international figure to chair the talks to try and see if there is a
:07:09. > :07:11.way of everybody working together. All sides will probably try to
:07:12. > :07:16.extract more money from the Treasury, but it is a very dangerous
:07:17. > :07:21.moment. Should we regard Michelle O'Neill, who has replaced Mr
:07:22. > :07:29.McGuinness as the leader, it is she the First Minister death probably
:07:30. > :07:36.not quite. An interesting thought. Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man,
:07:37. > :07:41.a fascinating concept in itself. But there are are still a large amount
:07:42. > :07:45.of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein what they need. But what effect does
:07:46. > :07:48.this have on the legacy of the prosecutions and the great
:07:49. > :07:54.witchhunts which the British Government has vowed to end. There
:07:55. > :08:00.is a majority left on the Stormont assembly to end those. But some
:08:01. > :08:06.would keep them going for time continuing, which is a headache for
:08:07. > :08:12.Theresa May. You have now got 27 Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the
:08:13. > :08:18.SDLP bumps up the numbers a little bit. You have got the British
:08:19. > :08:21.Government transfixed with Brexit which has huge implications for the
:08:22. > :08:29.border between North and South in Ireland, and the Irish government is
:08:30. > :08:32.pretty wavering as well and if there is an election there, Sinn Fein
:08:33. > :08:37.could do well in the Dublin parliament as well. There are a lot
:08:38. > :08:41.of moving pieces. There are and there is a danger that we look at
:08:42. > :08:46.everything through the prism of Brexit, but I found Friday and this
:08:47. > :08:50.weekend fascinating. Theresa May and Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is
:08:51. > :08:54.framing Brexit entirely through an argument to have a second referendum
:08:55. > :08:59.on independence which she wants to hold it she possibly can. And the
:09:00. > :09:08.Irish situation with the prospect of a hard border with Northern Ireland
:09:09. > :09:17.voting majority to remain, quite a substantial majority, again a few of
:09:18. > :09:18.the instability at the moment. That is on both sides. We will be keeping
:09:19. > :09:23.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:24. > :09:24.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:25. > :09:27.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:28. > :09:29.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:30. > :09:32."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:33. > :09:36.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:37. > :09:49.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:50. > :09:52.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:53. > :09:58."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:59. > :10:12.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:13. > :10:13.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:14. > :10:26.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:27. > :10:30.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:31. > :10:33.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:34. > :10:41.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:42. > :10:47.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:48. > :10:53.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:54. > :10:57.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:58. > :11:09.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:10. > :11:14.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:15. > :11:18.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:19. > :11:26.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:27. > :11:30.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:31. > :11:35.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:36. > :11:41.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:42. > :11:46.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:47. > :11:50.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:51. > :11:56.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:57. > :12:02.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:03. > :12:06.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:07. > :12:11.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:12. > :12:16.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:17. > :12:20.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:21. > :12:24.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:25. > :12:27.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:28. > :12:32.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:33. > :12:35.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:36. > :12:41.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:42. > :12:44.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:45. > :12:52.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:53. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:57. > :13:01.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:02. > :13:05.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:06. > :13:10.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:11. > :13:14.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:15. > :13:24.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:25. > :13:27.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:28. > :13:34.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:35. > :13:39.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:40. > :13:42.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:43. > :13:45.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:46. > :13:53.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.